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Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 1 Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic
Preparedness
Knowledge Partner:
Data Security Council of India O
ur future success hinges on our ability to
proactively harness transformative technologies
for inclusive economic growth and national
security. Among these, quantum computing stands
as a revolutionary force—one that has the potential to
fundamentally reshape problem-solving, cryptography,
and strategic decision-making. As nations worldwide
race to establish supremacy in this domain, India
must not only participate in this revolution but take
the lead—driving innovation, setting global standards,
and ensuring our security in an increasingly complex
geopolitical landscape.
In this edition of NITI Frontier Tech Hub’s Quarterly
Insight, Future Front®, we explore the profound
implications of quantum computing on national security
and our collective mission to build an Atmanirbhar
Bharat. Quantum technologies will play a defining
role in securing critical infrastructure, strengthening defense
capabilities, and safeguarding our digital sovereignty. However,
leadership in this domain will require more than technological
prowess—it demands a bold vision, strong policy frameworks,
and an ecosystem that fosters cutting-edge research, talent
development, and large-scale deployment.
By forging deep collaboration between government, industry,
and academia, and by investing in indigenous capabilities, we
can unlock the true potential of quantum computing and build a
future that is secure, resilient, and inclusive for all.
Let us seize this opportunity with determination and foresight
to shape the future of quantum technologies for both national
security and global progress.
BVR Subrahmanyam
CEO, NITI Aayog
Foreword Q
uantum computing is becoming real much faster than we
think—not in decades, but in years. Breakthroughs like
Google’s Willow and Microsoft’s Majorana-1 prove that
scalable quantum systems are on the horizon. This is not a distant
future; it is unfolding now, and India must act today to stay ahead.
Quantum computing will redefine AI, cryptography, and national
security, bringing both transformative opportunities and critical
risks. As quantum capabilities accelerate, they challenge existing
security frameworks while unlocking powerful new defense
strategies. Nations that prepare today will shape the future; those
that don’t risk falling behind.
At the NITI Frontier Tech Hub, our mission is to position India as a
Frontier Tech Nation. We actively engage with experts to build deep
insights and accelerate India’s readiness in emerging technologies—
fostering innovation, driving adoption, and ensuring economic and
societal progress.
We are proud to collaborate with the Data Security Council of
India (DSCI) to present the second edition of Future Front, our
Quarterly Frontier Tech Insights. This edition explores the profound
implications of quantum computing on national security and
resilience—providing strategic perspectives to help India navigate
and lead in this transformative era.
Debjani Ghosh
Distinguished Fellow, NITI Aayog;
Chief Architect, NITI Frontier Tech Hub
Q
uantum computing technology ecosystem is now industrial
in nature, and the supply chain is building formidably.
Quantum technologies are already demonstrating
practical benefits in fields such as optimization, materials science,
and cryptography. The confidence in quantum technologies can
be witnessed in the increasing private investment in the area.
Although some doubts still persist, the acceleration of quantum
technology, especially promising million-qubits, would have
profound impact on national security. While cyber security
preparedness needs urgent national response, the geopolitics
associated with quantum advancements, their possible role
in intelligence gathering and processing, and their potential
to transform military preparedness demands holistic national
security understanding. Data Security Council of India is glad to
partner with NITI Frontier Tech Hub in this effort.
Vinayak Godse
CEO, Data Security Council of India Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 1
NITI FRONTIER TECH HUB INSIGHTS
Quantum computing is evolving rapidly, posing both opportunities and challenges for national
security. This paper explores the global quantum race, latest technological breakthroughs and
the potential impact on National Security. It also provides recommendations for enhancing
India’s preparedness.
While there are ongoing scepticisms about the exact timeline for cryptographically relevant
quantum computers (CRQCs), it is essential to recognize the significant forces accelerating
their development. Recent breakthroughs challenge our previous assumptions, making it
imperative to reassess our expectations. The profound implications of CRQCs—particularly
for national security—demand our attention.
Tangible progress is being made in areas that were once considered formidable roadblocks.
Qubit coherence and control are advancing, error mitigation and correction techniques are
becoming more robust, and novel quantum algorithms are emerging. Researchers are also
making strides across multiple qubit modalities, expanding the possibilities for scalable
quantum computing.
These advancements are not occurring in isolation. A mature ecosystem and supply chains
are rapidly taking shape, supported by increasing public and private investments. This
convergence—of technological breakthroughs and ecosystem maturation—suggests that the
timeline for achieving fault-tolerant, cryptographically relevant quantum computers may be
shorter than previously anticipated.
In the 2
nd
NITI Frontier Tech Hub Insights, we explore the intersection of quantum technology
breakthroughs, the shifting landscape of quantum geopolitics, and their far-reaching
implications for national security.
QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY: ADVANCEMENTS AND BREAKTHROUGH
1. Longer Qubit Coherence - Core Component for Quantum Stability : Qubits are the
fundamental building blocks of quantum computers, and their stability is crucial for
harnessing quantum states for computation. One of the primary challenges in quantum
computing has been qubit coherence—the duration for which qubits can maintain their
delicate quantum state before decoherence sets in. Achieving longer qubit coherence is
a critical milestone in making quantum computers more robust, scalable, and capable of
solving complex problems.
Recent advancements by Atom Computing and ColdQuanta have demonstrated
significantly longer coherence times using innovative neutral atom qubit architectures.
These breakthroughs mark a crucial step forward, as extended coherence enables more
sophisticated quantum circuits, enhancing computational potential and bringing us closer
to practical, fault-tolerant quantum computing.
2. Enhanced Qubit Control and Fidelity – Enabling More Accurate Operations : Beyond
qubit stability, precise control over qubits is essential for minimizing errors and ensuring
reliable quantum computations. Higher fidelity in qubit operations means that the actual Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 2
quantum state closely aligns with the intended target state, reducing computational noise
and increasing accuracy. Since quantum gates serve as the fundamental building blocks
of quantum operations, improving their fidelity directly enhances the overall performance
and dependability of quantum computers.
Recent advancements highlight significant progress in this area. IBM continues to refine
superconducting qubit technology, while Quantinuum has demonstrated exceptionally
high-fidelity gate operations using trapped-ion qubits. These breakthroughs allow
quantum computers to be programmed with greater accuracy and confidence, making
them more reliable for tackling complex real-world problems.
3. Error Correction Progress – Paving the way towards Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing:
Qubits are inherently susceptible to noise and errors. Error correction is essential for
building machines capable of complex, reliable computation. Compelling breakthroughs
in this vital area were witnessed in the recent past.
Google’s Willow Chip: One of the most notable advancements comes from Google’s
Quantum chip named Willow. Designed to explore and demonstrate hardware-based
error correction techniques, Willow enables multiple physical qubits to work together to
store a single unit of quantum information, creating a built-in self-checking mechanism
that detects and corrects errors in real time. This redundancy improves computational
stability and is a key enabler of fault-tolerant quantum computing. Google has projected
that, theoretically, quantum computers could one day shrink 100-million-year problems
down to mere minutes—a transformative leap with profound implications for fields such
as cryptography and materials science.
Global Efforts in Quantum Error Correction (QEC): Beyond Google, diverse institutions
are tackling the error correction challenge from multiple angles:
i. Hardware Innovations:
• IBM & UCSB – Focused on implementing and experimentally validating surface
codes, a leading QEC technique.
• PsiQuantum – A startup pursuing a scalable, photonics-based approach to
fault-tolerant quantum computing.
• Microsoft – Building Majorana 1 is the world’s first Quantum Processing Unit
(QPU) powered by a Topological Core to make it more fault-tolerant.
• Atom Computing – Uses neutral atoms, which are atoms without an electrical
charge, as qubits. They are preparing second-generation systems with over
1,000 qubits for commercial introduction as Quantum Computing as a service.
ii. Theoretical and Algorithmic Research:
• ETH Zurich & University of Toronto – Advancing the mathematical foundations
and algorithmic strategies for robust QEC.
• USTC & Zhejiang University (China) – Contributing significantly to both
experimental and theoretical breakthroughs in QEC. Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 3
As these global efforts continue to push the boundaries of error correction, the vision
of fault-tolerant quantum computing is moving from theory to reality. These advances
will enable quantum computers to tackle high-impact problems, from breaking current
encryption standards to designing revolutionary new materials and accelerating scientific
discovery.
3. Diversity of Qubit Modalities – A “Multi-Horse Race”: Quantum computing is not a
one-size-fits-all technology. Instead, it is evolving as a multi-horse race, with multiple
competing qubit modalities being actively pursued worldwide. The leading contenders
include superconducting circuits, trapped ions, photonic systems, neutral atoms, silicon
spin qubits, and topological qubits.
This diversity fosters a dynamic ecosystem where breakthroughs in one modality often
benefit others, accelerating overall progress in the field. While the suitability of a qubit
type depends on the specific application, having multiple viable approaches reduces
dependency on any single technology or player, increasing resilience and innovation in
the quantum landscape.
4. Continued Pursuit of Topological Qubits – A Potential Game Changer: Topological
qubits have the potential to revolutionize quantum computing by achieving fault tolerance
at the hardware level. Unlike conventional qubits, which rely on individual particles like
ions, electrons, or photons, topological qubits encode information within a topological
state or phase of matter. This makes them inherently more stable and resistant to errors,
significantly reducing the need for complex error correction mechanisms.
Although still in the early stages of development, any significant breakthrough in
topological qubits could be transformative. By fundamentally simplifying error correction,
they could leapfrog existing quantum computing approaches, accelerating the path to
scalable, fault-tolerant systems faster than previously anticipated.
In this context, topology refers to a branch of mathematics dealing with properties
that remain unchanged under continuous deformations, such as stretching or twisting.
This principle enables topological qubits to store information in a way that is inherently
protected from external disturbances—unlike traditional qubits, which are highly sensitive
to environmental noise and decoherence.
Topological qubits are envisioned to rely on exotic quasiparticles known as Majorana Zero
Modes (MZMs)—which are their own antiparticles and can exist at the ends of specially
engineered nanowires. Quantum information is stored across pairs of these MZMs,
making it more robust against errors. Indium arsenide nanowires coated with aluminium
are commonly used as topoconductors to facilitate this process.
A key feature of MZMs is their braiding property, where the movement of these
quasiparticles around each other encodes quantum information. Unlike conventional
logical qubits—where maintaining stability requires hundreds or even thousands of
physical qubits—topological qubit technology could drastically reduce this requirement,
making large-scale quantum computing more feasible.
Microsoft’s recent announcement of Majorana-1, an eight-qubit system, provides strong
evidence of MZMs, a topological energy gap, and improved qubit coherence times.
However, some scientists remain cautious, emphasizing the need for robust validation of
braiding operations before declaring definitive success. Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 4
The combination of nanowire-based architecture, braiding operations immune to timing
and positioning errors, and semiconductor materials like indium arsenide and aluminium
could pave the way for scaling topological qubits to millions of qubits. Recognizing its
potential, DARPA has selected Microsoft’s topological qubit approach as one of two key
methods for developing an industrially viable quantum computer.
5. Software and Algorithmic Innovation – Unlocking Quantum Potential: Advancements
in software and algorithmic innovation are essential for efficiently harnessing quantum
power, transforming raw hardware potential into practical capabilities. Companies and
institutions are making significant strides in optimizing quantum circuits and enhancing
computational efficiency. IBM is refining quantum circuits to run faster with fewer
quantum gates, ensuring useful results before decoherence disrupts computations.
Oxford University is focused on reducing ‘gate counts’ in algorithms, simplifying quantum
programs and minimizing errors. Microsoft is pushing the boundaries of fault-tolerant
quantum computing through concatenated codes and improved protocols to create robust
logical qubits from noisy physical ones. Additionally, Quantum Machine Learning (QML),
Quantum Simulation for applications like drug discovery, and Quantum Optimization
are expanding the possibilities of quantum computing. The field is also witnessing rapid
advancements in programming languages and compilers, with growing expertise in high-
level quantum programming languages such as Q#, Cirq, Qiskit, and PennyLane. These
innovations collectively drive the efficient application of quantum computing, bringing us
closer to unlocking its full potential.
MATURING TECHNOLOGY ECOSYSTEM AND SUPPLY CHAIN
The evolution of a robust technology ecosystem and supply chain is critical for transforming
lab-based quantum breakthroughs into real-world, scalable systems. Recent developments
indicate significant progress in this direction, with key advancements across supporting
industries, specialized materials, manufacturing capabilities, and workforce development.
• Emergence of Specialized Component Suppliers
Companies are increasingly focusing on producing ultra-high purity materials,
cryogenic systems, specialized lasers, and control electronics tailored for quantum
computing. Notable players in this space include Quantum Silicon, Materion, Sigma-
Aldrich, American Elements, Kyocera, Oxford Instruments, Bluefors, Cryoconcept,
Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Cryomech, Samtec, Lake Shore Cryotronics, Toptica
Photonics, NKT Photonics, Zurich Instruments, Tektronix, and Quinstar Technology.
• Dedicated Quantum Foundries and Manufacturing Efforts
While still in the early stages, there is a growing push to establish specialized fabrication
facilities capable of manufacturing complex quantum chips and components. Leading
efforts in this space include Seeqc, Rigetti Foundry Services, VTT, IQM, IMEC, CEA-
Leti, AQT, QuiX Quantum, and LioniX International.
• Expanding Quantum Workforce
Formal education and training programs are being developed to cultivate a skilled
workforce of quantum engineers, physicists, software developers, and technicians,
ensuring the industry has the talent required to sustain long-term growth. Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 5
These advancements collectively signal the maturing of the quantum technology ecosystem,
paving the way for scalable and commercially viable quantum solutions.
INCREASED PRIVATE INVESTMENT AND COMMERCIALIZATION
Private investment in quantum technologies is surging, reflecting growing commercial
confidence and accelerating the transition from research to real-world applications. Leading
quantum companies such as PsiQuantum, Rigetti Computing, IonQ, D-Wave Systems,
Quantinuum, IQM Quantum Computers, and PASQAL have each secured investments
exceeding $100 million, underscoring strong market interest.
• Public Sector Investment
Governments worldwide are also making substantial commitments to quantum
development. The U.S. has invested $5 billion to date, while China leads with $15
billion, followed by Europe at $1.2 billion and India at $0.75 billion. In total, more than
30 governments have pledged over $40 billion to advance quantum technologies.
• Growing Deal Activity
The quantum sector witnessed approximately 50 investment deals worth $1.5 billion
in 2024—double the previous year’s total—highlighting an accelerating funding
landscape. The Indian government, in particular, has ramped up financial support for
quantum startups, and this momentum is expected to intensify in 2025.
With increasing private capital and government backing, quantum commercialization is set
to advance rapidly, bringing the industry closer to practical deployment and widespread
adoption.
QUANTUM GEOPOLITICS
Quantum technology is more than a scientific race—it is a contest for future global power with
profound implications for defense, intelligence, economic security, and national resilience.
• United States
The U.S. quantum ecosystem thrives on strong government funding and a dynamic
private sector, with tech giants like Google and IBM, alongside startups like PsiQuantum,
advancing diverse quantum modalities. The National Quantum Initiative Act of 2018
laid the foundation for research, workforce development, and industrial growth, while
also emphasizing national security through Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) to
counter future cyber threats. White House directives have reinforced quantum as a
national priority, advocating a whole-of-government approach to maintain leadership
and mitigate risks.
• China
Following its centralized, state-driven model, China has made massive investments
in quantum research, with institutions like USTC and Zhejiang University leading
breakthroughs. The country’s ambition for quantum supremacy is evident in its
large-scale programs and military-intelligence integration efforts, aiming for rapid
deployment of quantum capabilities. Researchers at Peking University demonstrated Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 6
large scale quantum entanglement on an optical chip, heating up with Quantum race
globally.
• Europe
The EU pursues regional collaboration and strategic autonomy through initiatives
like the Quantum Flagship and national programs in Germany, France, Belgium, and
Switzerland. Europe is fostering strong academic research while also developing a
robust quantum supply chain to reduce dependencies on external players.
• Other Key Geographies
Countries like Canada, Japan, and Australia are making strategic investments in niche
areas—quantum software (Canada), specialized quantum hardware (Japan), and
quantum sensors (Australia).
Export control: As quantum technologies become critical to national security, export
restrictions are tightening on components like Arbitrary Waveform Generators (AWGs), Digital-
to-Analog Converters (DACs), Microwave Components, specialized lasers, and cryogenic
dilution refrigerators. In January 2025, Europe initiated a review of outward Foreign Direct
Investments (FDI) in critical security technologies, with quantum among the top three areas
under scrutiny. Export controls on quantum are expected to intensify, shaping global supply
chains and strategic alliances.
INDIA’S QUANTUM JOURNEY AND THE NATIONAL QUANTUM MISSION
India’s quantum efforts have historically been led by individual researchers and academic
institutions, with a strong focus on fundamental science rather than technology development
and commercialization. With a rich legacy in theoretical physics, leading universities and
research institutes have long engaged in quantum information science, quantum computation,
and related areas, with over 170 professors actively working in quantum technology domains.
In recent years, start-up activity has emerged, particularly in quantum software, algorithms,
and quantum-safe cryptography, though these ventures have largely been bootstrapped or
received limited seed funding. The DST’s Quantum-Enabled Science and Technology (QuEST)
program has provided some funding support, while early-stage efforts in quantum hardware—
such as superconducting qubits, trapped ions, and photonics—have remained small in scale.
NATIONAL QUANTUM MISSION: A STRATEGIC LEAP FORWARD
Recognizing the global quantum race and India’s strategic need to strengthen its capabilities,
the Government of India launched the National Quantum Mission (NQM) in April 2023 , with
a budget outlay of ₹6,003 crore. This initiative aims to build a comprehensive indigenous
quantum technology ecosystem , focusing on:
• A mission-mode approach with significant budget allocation, reflecting a strong
commitment to quantum technology development.
• Leveraging India’s strong theoretical foundation in quantum physics and information
science through established research institutions and universities.
• Accelerating start-up ecosystem development by providing substantial funding
and support to promising quantum ventures. Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 7
• Clear timelines and well-defined goals to drive tangible progress across quantum
computing, quantum communication, quantum sensing, quantum materials, and
workforce development.
FIVE WAYS QUANTUM COMPUTING RESHAPES NATIONAL SECURITY
Quantum technologies are set to redefine national security priorities across multiple domains.
From breaking encryption to designing next-generation weaponry, nations that successfully
advance quantum capabilities will gain an unprecedented strategic edge.
1. Cryptography and Cybersecurity : A sufficiently powerful, fault-tolerant quantum
computer (CRQC) could break widely used public-key encryption algorithms, rendering
modern internet security, online banking, and secure communications obsolete .
Countries are in a race to develop and implement Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)
to safeguard their data. Those who master PQC first can protect their critical information
while others remain vulnerable. Topology qubit, due to their inherent stability and
resistance to errors and the promise of scalability can accelerate the development of
CRQC.
2. Intelligence Gathering: Quantum computing could revolutionize intelligence analysis
by processing vast, complex datasets far beyond classical capabilities. It would enhance
signals intelligence (SIGINT), allowing nations to intercept, analyze, and decode
communications at an unprecedented scale. The ability to break encryption would provide
unparalleled intelligence advantages, reshaping espionage and counterintelligence
operations. Possibility of million qubits, with realization of techniques like topology
qubits, can provide extraordinary capabilities for intelligence gathering and processing.
3. Military Applications: Quantum technologies will drive breakthroughs in materials
science, leading to next-generation military hardware. Quantum algorithms will optimize
logistics, resource allocation, and battlefield strategy, making defense operations more
efficient. Quantum-enabled AI (Quantum AI) will power autonomous military drones
and robotic systems, enhancing both offensive and defensive capabilities. Scalability of
qubit systems to million, as promised by the topology qubit, would take weaponization
of them to the new level enabling highly sensitive quantum sensors for ultra precise
navigation, detection of next gen stealth aircraft and other objects, simulation of complex
phenomena, and build robust and resilient control systems for autonomous weapons.
4. Economic Warfare: The ability to break current encryption could destabilize financial
markets, compromise banking systems , and endanger digital payment infrastructures.
Quantum computers could also be used to steal sensitive intellectual property from
corporations and governments, leading to a new era of economic espionage.
5. Geopolitical Power: Nations that achieve early breakthroughs in quantum computing
will establish a technological and knowledge base that others will struggle to replicate.
Dominance in quantum will also allow countries to shape global technology standards
and norms, influencing international regulations. Furthermore, leading quantum nations
may impose export controls to restrict access to key technologies, preventing adversaries
from catching up. With their potential for enhanced stability and scalability, topology
qubit would likely solidify the dominance of leading quantum nations. Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 8
NATIONAL SECURITY IMPERATIVES FOR INDIA
Quantum computing is a dual-use technology with transformative implications for defense,
intelligence, and cybersecurity. While India has made strides through its National Quantum
Mission, a strategic framework is essential to navigate both opportunities and threats.
Accelerating Quantum Computing and Security Preparedness : Breakthroughs in qubit
stability, error correction, and quantum software signify accelerating progress. India must
prepare for two scenarios:
• Incremental Advances: Gradual improvements in qubits, control systems, and
algorithms.
• Disruptive Breakthroughs: New platforms (e.g., silicon spin or topological qubits) or
novel error correction techniques that drastically shorten the quantum timeline.
Advancements in quantum technology would expose the country to increased risk of
technological surprise and strategic blind spots. Being caught off guard by quantum
driven advancements would jeopardize national security, economic competitiveness, and
technological leadership.
Key Recommendations to address the uncertainty associated with quantum timeline:
• Continuous Monitoring: Establish a task force to track global quantum advancements.
• Cryptographic Intelligence: Assess vulnerabilities in critical national systems.
• Directives and guidelines on crypto agility to ensure organizations from leading
industry sectors including critical sector are ready to quickly adapt to the possible
breakthroughs.
• PQC Transition Plan: Involving risk prioritization-based transition and roadmap,
accelerated POCs, testing and certification, and exchanging information about the
deployments.
• Early Warning System: Leverage scientific intelligence for potential breakthroughs.
• Technology Access Agreements: Establish bilateral partnerships for rapid adoption,
especially the modalities that offer scalability, including topology qubit.
• Flexible R&D Funding: Adapt investment priorities based on emerging breakthroughs.
CONCLUSION
India’s quantum security strategy must integrate technology monitoring, research flexibility,
and supply chain security while leveraging global partnerships and domestic innovation.
A proactive, multi-pronged approach will ensure national security remains resilient in the
quantum era. Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 9
NOTES Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 11
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 1 Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic
Preparedness
Knowledge Partner:
Data Security Council of India O
ur future success hinges on our ability to
proactively harness transformative technologies
for inclusive economic growth and national
security. Among these, quantum computing stands
as a revolutionary force—one that has the potential to
fundamentally reshape problem-solving, cryptography,
and strategic decision-making. As nations worldwide
race to establish supremacy in this domain, India
must not only participate in this revolution but take
the lead—driving innovation, setting global standards,
and ensuring our security in an increasingly complex
geopolitical landscape.
In this edition of NITI Frontier Tech Hub’s Quarterly
Insight, Future Front®, we explore the profound
implications of quantum computing on national security
and our collective mission to build an Atmanirbhar
Bharat. Quantum technologies will play a defining
role in securing critical infrastructure, strengthening defense
capabilities, and safeguarding our digital sovereignty. However,
leadership in this domain will require more than technological
prowess—it demands a bold vision, strong policy frameworks,
and an ecosystem that fosters cutting-edge research, talent
development, and large-scale deployment.
By forging deep collaboration between government, industry,
and academia, and by investing in indigenous capabilities, we
can unlock the true potential of quantum computing and build a
future that is secure, resilient, and inclusive for all.
Let us seize this opportunity with determination and foresight
to shape the future of quantum technologies for both national
security and global progress.
BVR Subrahmanyam
CEO, NITI Aayog
Foreword Q
uantum computing is becoming real much faster than we
think—not in decades, but in years. Breakthroughs like
Google’s Willow and Microsoft’s Majorana-1 prove that
scalable quantum systems are on the horizon. This is not a distant
future; it is unfolding now, and India must act today to stay ahead.
Quantum computing will redefine AI, cryptography, and national
security, bringing both transformative opportunities and critical
risks. As quantum capabilities accelerate, they challenge existing
security frameworks while unlocking powerful new defense
strategies. Nations that prepare today will shape the future; those
that don’t risk falling behind.
At the NITI Frontier Tech Hub, our mission is to position India as a
Frontier Tech Nation. We actively engage with experts to build deep
insights and accelerate India’s readiness in emerging technologies—
fostering innovation, driving adoption, and ensuring economic and
societal progress.
We are proud to collaborate with the Data Security Council of
India (DSCI) to present the second edition of Future Front, our
Quarterly Frontier Tech Insights. This edition explores the profound
implications of quantum computing on national security and
resilience—providing strategic perspectives to help India navigate
and lead in this transformative era.
Debjani Ghosh
Distinguished Fellow, NITI Aayog;
Chief Architect, NITI Frontier Tech Hub
Q
uantum computing technology ecosystem is now industrial
in nature, and the supply chain is building formidably.
Quantum technologies are already demonstrating
practical benefits in fields such as optimization, materials science,
and cryptography. The confidence in quantum technologies can
be witnessed in the increasing private investment in the area.
Although some doubts still persist, the acceleration of quantum
technology, especially promising million-qubits, would have
profound impact on national security. While cyber security
preparedness needs urgent national response, the geopolitics
associated with quantum advancements, their possible role
in intelligence gathering and processing, and their potential
to transform military preparedness demands holistic national
security understanding. Data Security Council of India is glad to
partner with NITI Frontier Tech Hub in this effort.
Vinayak Godse
CEO, Data Security Council of India Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 1
NITI FRONTIER TECH HUB INSIGHTS
Quantum computing is evolving rapidly, posing both opportunities and challenges for national
security. This paper explores the global quantum race, latest technological breakthroughs and
the potential impact on National Security. It also provides recommendations for enhancing
India’s preparedness.
While there are ongoing scepticisms about the exact timeline for cryptographically relevant
quantum computers (CRQCs), it is essential to recognize the significant forces accelerating
their development. Recent breakthroughs challenge our previous assumptions, making it
imperative to reassess our expectations. The profound implications of CRQCs—particularly
for national security—demand our attention.
Tangible progress is being made in areas that were once considered formidable roadblocks.
Qubit coherence and control are advancing, error mitigation and correction techniques are
becoming more robust, and novel quantum algorithms are emerging. Researchers are also
making strides across multiple qubit modalities, expanding the possibilities for scalable
quantum computing.
These advancements are not occurring in isolation. A mature ecosystem and supply chains
are rapidly taking shape, supported by increasing public and private investments. This
convergence—of technological breakthroughs and ecosystem maturation—suggests that the
timeline for achieving fault-tolerant, cryptographically relevant quantum computers may be
shorter than previously anticipated.
In the 2
nd
NITI Frontier Tech Hub Insights, we explore the intersection of quantum technology
breakthroughs, the shifting landscape of quantum geopolitics, and their far-reaching
implications for national security.
QUANTUM TECHNOLOGY: ADVANCEMENTS AND BREAKTHROUGH
1. Longer Qubit Coherence - Core Component for Quantum Stability : Qubits are the
fundamental building blocks of quantum computers, and their stability is crucial for
harnessing quantum states for computation. One of the primary challenges in quantum
computing has been qubit coherence—the duration for which qubits can maintain their
delicate quantum state before decoherence sets in. Achieving longer qubit coherence is
a critical milestone in making quantum computers more robust, scalable, and capable of
solving complex problems.
Recent advancements by Atom Computing and ColdQuanta have demonstrated
significantly longer coherence times using innovative neutral atom qubit architectures.
These breakthroughs mark a crucial step forward, as extended coherence enables more
sophisticated quantum circuits, enhancing computational potential and bringing us closer
to practical, fault-tolerant quantum computing.
2. Enhanced Qubit Control and Fidelity – Enabling More Accurate Operations : Beyond
qubit stability, precise control over qubits is essential for minimizing errors and ensuring
reliable quantum computations. Higher fidelity in qubit operations means that the actual Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 2
quantum state closely aligns with the intended target state, reducing computational noise
and increasing accuracy. Since quantum gates serve as the fundamental building blocks
of quantum operations, improving their fidelity directly enhances the overall performance
and dependability of quantum computers.
Recent advancements highlight significant progress in this area. IBM continues to refine
superconducting qubit technology, while Quantinuum has demonstrated exceptionally
high-fidelity gate operations using trapped-ion qubits. These breakthroughs allow
quantum computers to be programmed with greater accuracy and confidence, making
them more reliable for tackling complex real-world problems.
3. Error Correction Progress – Paving the way towards Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing:
Qubits are inherently susceptible to noise and errors. Error correction is essential for
building machines capable of complex, reliable computation. Compelling breakthroughs
in this vital area were witnessed in the recent past.
Google’s Willow Chip: One of the most notable advancements comes from Google’s
Quantum chip named Willow. Designed to explore and demonstrate hardware-based
error correction techniques, Willow enables multiple physical qubits to work together to
store a single unit of quantum information, creating a built-in self-checking mechanism
that detects and corrects errors in real time. This redundancy improves computational
stability and is a key enabler of fault-tolerant quantum computing. Google has projected
that, theoretically, quantum computers could one day shrink 100-million-year problems
down to mere minutes—a transformative leap with profound implications for fields such
as cryptography and materials science.
Global Efforts in Quantum Error Correction (QEC): Beyond Google, diverse institutions
are tackling the error correction challenge from multiple angles:
i. Hardware Innovations:
• IBM & UCSB – Focused on implementing and experimentally validating surface
codes, a leading QEC technique.
• PsiQuantum – A startup pursuing a scalable, photonics-based approach to
fault-tolerant quantum computing.
• Microsoft – Building Majorana 1 is the world’s first Quantum Processing Unit
(QPU) powered by a Topological Core to make it more fault-tolerant.
• Atom Computing – Uses neutral atoms, which are atoms without an electrical
charge, as qubits. They are preparing second-generation systems with over
1,000 qubits for commercial introduction as Quantum Computing as a service.
ii. Theoretical and Algorithmic Research:
• ETH Zurich & University of Toronto – Advancing the mathematical foundations
and algorithmic strategies for robust QEC.
• USTC & Zhejiang University (China) – Contributing significantly to both
experimental and theoretical breakthroughs in QEC. Quantum Computing:
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As these global efforts continue to push the boundaries of error correction, the vision
of fault-tolerant quantum computing is moving from theory to reality. These advances
will enable quantum computers to tackle high-impact problems, from breaking current
encryption standards to designing revolutionary new materials and accelerating scientific
discovery.
3. Diversity of Qubit Modalities – A “Multi-Horse Race”: Quantum computing is not a
one-size-fits-all technology. Instead, it is evolving as a multi-horse race, with multiple
competing qubit modalities being actively pursued worldwide. The leading contenders
include superconducting circuits, trapped ions, photonic systems, neutral atoms, silicon
spin qubits, and topological qubits.
This diversity fosters a dynamic ecosystem where breakthroughs in one modality often
benefit others, accelerating overall progress in the field. While the suitability of a qubit
type depends on the specific application, having multiple viable approaches reduces
dependency on any single technology or player, increasing resilience and innovation in
the quantum landscape.
4. Continued Pursuit of Topological Qubits – A Potential Game Changer: Topological
qubits have the potential to revolutionize quantum computing by achieving fault tolerance
at the hardware level. Unlike conventional qubits, which rely on individual particles like
ions, electrons, or photons, topological qubits encode information within a topological
state or phase of matter. This makes them inherently more stable and resistant to errors,
significantly reducing the need for complex error correction mechanisms.
Although still in the early stages of development, any significant breakthrough in
topological qubits could be transformative. By fundamentally simplifying error correction,
they could leapfrog existing quantum computing approaches, accelerating the path to
scalable, fault-tolerant systems faster than previously anticipated.
In this context, topology refers to a branch of mathematics dealing with properties
that remain unchanged under continuous deformations, such as stretching or twisting.
This principle enables topological qubits to store information in a way that is inherently
protected from external disturbances—unlike traditional qubits, which are highly sensitive
to environmental noise and decoherence.
Topological qubits are envisioned to rely on exotic quasiparticles known as Majorana Zero
Modes (MZMs)—which are their own antiparticles and can exist at the ends of specially
engineered nanowires. Quantum information is stored across pairs of these MZMs,
making it more robust against errors. Indium arsenide nanowires coated with aluminium
are commonly used as topoconductors to facilitate this process.
A key feature of MZMs is their braiding property, where the movement of these
quasiparticles around each other encodes quantum information. Unlike conventional
logical qubits—where maintaining stability requires hundreds or even thousands of
physical qubits—topological qubit technology could drastically reduce this requirement,
making large-scale quantum computing more feasible.
Microsoft’s recent announcement of Majorana-1, an eight-qubit system, provides strong
evidence of MZMs, a topological energy gap, and improved qubit coherence times.
However, some scientists remain cautious, emphasizing the need for robust validation of
braiding operations before declaring definitive success. Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 4
The combination of nanowire-based architecture, braiding operations immune to timing
and positioning errors, and semiconductor materials like indium arsenide and aluminium
could pave the way for scaling topological qubits to millions of qubits. Recognizing its
potential, DARPA has selected Microsoft’s topological qubit approach as one of two key
methods for developing an industrially viable quantum computer.
5. Software and Algorithmic Innovation – Unlocking Quantum Potential: Advancements
in software and algorithmic innovation are essential for efficiently harnessing quantum
power, transforming raw hardware potential into practical capabilities. Companies and
institutions are making significant strides in optimizing quantum circuits and enhancing
computational efficiency. IBM is refining quantum circuits to run faster with fewer
quantum gates, ensuring useful results before decoherence disrupts computations.
Oxford University is focused on reducing ‘gate counts’ in algorithms, simplifying quantum
programs and minimizing errors. Microsoft is pushing the boundaries of fault-tolerant
quantum computing through concatenated codes and improved protocols to create robust
logical qubits from noisy physical ones. Additionally, Quantum Machine Learning (QML),
Quantum Simulation for applications like drug discovery, and Quantum Optimization
are expanding the possibilities of quantum computing. The field is also witnessing rapid
advancements in programming languages and compilers, with growing expertise in high-
level quantum programming languages such as Q#, Cirq, Qiskit, and PennyLane. These
innovations collectively drive the efficient application of quantum computing, bringing us
closer to unlocking its full potential.
MATURING TECHNOLOGY ECOSYSTEM AND SUPPLY CHAIN
The evolution of a robust technology ecosystem and supply chain is critical for transforming
lab-based quantum breakthroughs into real-world, scalable systems. Recent developments
indicate significant progress in this direction, with key advancements across supporting
industries, specialized materials, manufacturing capabilities, and workforce development.
• Emergence of Specialized Component Suppliers
Companies are increasingly focusing on producing ultra-high purity materials,
cryogenic systems, specialized lasers, and control electronics tailored for quantum
computing. Notable players in this space include Quantum Silicon, Materion, Sigma-
Aldrich, American Elements, Kyocera, Oxford Instruments, Bluefors, Cryoconcept,
Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Cryomech, Samtec, Lake Shore Cryotronics, Toptica
Photonics, NKT Photonics, Zurich Instruments, Tektronix, and Quinstar Technology.
• Dedicated Quantum Foundries and Manufacturing Efforts
While still in the early stages, there is a growing push to establish specialized fabrication
facilities capable of manufacturing complex quantum chips and components. Leading
efforts in this space include Seeqc, Rigetti Foundry Services, VTT, IQM, IMEC, CEA-
Leti, AQT, QuiX Quantum, and LioniX International.
• Expanding Quantum Workforce
Formal education and training programs are being developed to cultivate a skilled
workforce of quantum engineers, physicists, software developers, and technicians,
ensuring the industry has the talent required to sustain long-term growth. Quantum Computing:
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These advancements collectively signal the maturing of the quantum technology ecosystem,
paving the way for scalable and commercially viable quantum solutions.
INCREASED PRIVATE INVESTMENT AND COMMERCIALIZATION
Private investment in quantum technologies is surging, reflecting growing commercial
confidence and accelerating the transition from research to real-world applications. Leading
quantum companies such as PsiQuantum, Rigetti Computing, IonQ, D-Wave Systems,
Quantinuum, IQM Quantum Computers, and PASQAL have each secured investments
exceeding $100 million, underscoring strong market interest.
• Public Sector Investment
Governments worldwide are also making substantial commitments to quantum
development. The U.S. has invested $5 billion to date, while China leads with $15
billion, followed by Europe at $1.2 billion and India at $0.75 billion. In total, more than
30 governments have pledged over $40 billion to advance quantum technologies.
• Growing Deal Activity
The quantum sector witnessed approximately 50 investment deals worth $1.5 billion
in 2024—double the previous year’s total—highlighting an accelerating funding
landscape. The Indian government, in particular, has ramped up financial support for
quantum startups, and this momentum is expected to intensify in 2025.
With increasing private capital and government backing, quantum commercialization is set
to advance rapidly, bringing the industry closer to practical deployment and widespread
adoption.
QUANTUM GEOPOLITICS
Quantum technology is more than a scientific race—it is a contest for future global power with
profound implications for defense, intelligence, economic security, and national resilience.
• United States
The U.S. quantum ecosystem thrives on strong government funding and a dynamic
private sector, with tech giants like Google and IBM, alongside startups like PsiQuantum,
advancing diverse quantum modalities. The National Quantum Initiative Act of 2018
laid the foundation for research, workforce development, and industrial growth, while
also emphasizing national security through Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) to
counter future cyber threats. White House directives have reinforced quantum as a
national priority, advocating a whole-of-government approach to maintain leadership
and mitigate risks.
• China
Following its centralized, state-driven model, China has made massive investments
in quantum research, with institutions like USTC and Zhejiang University leading
breakthroughs. The country’s ambition for quantum supremacy is evident in its
large-scale programs and military-intelligence integration efforts, aiming for rapid
deployment of quantum capabilities. Researchers at Peking University demonstrated Quantum Computing:
National SecurityImplications & Strategic Preparedness 6
large scale quantum entanglement on an optical chip, heating up with Quantum race
globally.
• Europe
The EU pursues regional collaboration and strategic autonomy through initiatives
like the Quantum Flagship and national programs in Germany, France, Belgium, and
Switzerland. Europe is fostering strong academic research while also developing a
robust quantum supply chain to reduce dependencies on external players.
• Other Key Geographies
Countries like Canada, Japan, and Australia are making strategic investments in niche
areas—quantum software (Canada), specialized quantum hardware (Japan), and
quantum sensors (Australia).
Export control: As quantum technologies become critical to national security, export
restrictions are tightening on components like Arbitrary Waveform Generators (AWGs), Digital-
to-Analog Converters (DACs), Microwave Components, specialized lasers, and cryogenic
dilution refrigerators. In January 2025, Europe initiated a review of outward Foreign Direct
Investments (FDI) in critical security technologies, with quantum among the top three areas
under scrutiny. Export controls on quantum are expected to intensify, shaping global supply
chains and strategic alliances.
INDIA’S QUANTUM JOURNEY AND THE NATIONAL QUANTUM MISSION
India’s quantum efforts have historically been led by individual researchers and academic
institutions, with a strong focus on fundamental science rather than technology development
and commercialization. With a rich legacy in theoretical physics, leading universities and
research institutes have long engaged in quantum information science, quantum computation,
and related areas, with over 170 professors actively working in quantum technology domains.
In recent years, start-up activity has emerged, particularly in quantum software, algorithms,
and quantum-safe cryptography, though these ventures have largely been bootstrapped or
received limited seed funding. The DST’s Quantum-Enabled Science and Technology (QuEST)
program has provided some funding support, while early-stage efforts in quantum hardware—
such as superconducting qubits, trapped ions, and photonics—have remained small in scale.
NATIONAL QUANTUM MISSION: A STRATEGIC LEAP FORWARD
Recognizing the global quantum race and India’s strategic need to strengthen its capabilities,
the Government of India launched the National Quantum Mission (NQM) in April 2023 , with
a budget outlay of ₹6,003 crore. This initiative aims to build a comprehensive indigenous
quantum technology ecosystem , focusing on:
• A mission-mode approach with significant budget allocation, reflecting a strong
commitment to quantum technology development.
• Leveraging India’s strong theoretical foundation in quantum physics and information
science through established research institutions and universities.
• Accelerating start-up ecosystem development by providing substantial funding
and support to promising quantum ventures. Quantum Computing:
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• Clear timelines and well-defined goals to drive tangible progress across quantum
computing, quantum communication, quantum sensing, quantum materials, and
workforce development.
FIVE WAYS QUANTUM COMPUTING RESHAPES NATIONAL SECURITY
Quantum technologies are set to redefine national security priorities across multiple domains.
From breaking encryption to designing next-generation weaponry, nations that successfully
advance quantum capabilities will gain an unprecedented strategic edge.
1. Cryptography and Cybersecurity : A sufficiently powerful, fault-tolerant quantum
computer (CRQC) could break widely used public-key encryption algorithms, rendering
modern internet security, online banking, and secure communications obsolete .
Countries are in a race to develop and implement Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)
to safeguard their data. Those who master PQC first can protect their critical information
while others remain vulnerable. Topology qubit, due to their inherent stability and
resistance to errors and the promise of scalability can accelerate the development of
CRQC.
2. Intelligence Gathering: Quantum computing could revolutionize intelligence analysis
by processing vast, complex datasets far beyond classical capabilities. It would enhance
signals intelligence (SIGINT), allowing nations to intercept, analyze, and decode
communications at an unprecedented scale. The ability to break encryption would provide
unparalleled intelligence advantages, reshaping espionage and counterintelligence
operations. Possibility of million qubits, with realization of techniques like topology
qubits, can provide extraordinary capabilities for intelligence gathering and processing.
3. Military Applications: Quantum technologies will drive breakthroughs in materials
science, leading to next-generation military hardware. Quantum algorithms will optimize
logistics, resource allocation, and battlefield strategy, making defense operations more
efficient. Quantum-enabled AI (Quantum AI) will power autonomous military drones
and robotic systems, enhancing both offensive and defensive capabilities. Scalability of
qubit systems to million, as promised by the topology qubit, would take weaponization
of them to the new level enabling highly sensitive quantum sensors for ultra precise
navigation, detection of next gen stealth aircraft and other objects, simulation of complex
phenomena, and build robust and resilient control systems for autonomous weapons.
4. Economic Warfare: The ability to break current encryption could destabilize financial
markets, compromise banking systems , and endanger digital payment infrastructures.
Quantum computers could also be used to steal sensitive intellectual property from
corporations and governments, leading to a new era of economic espionage.
5. Geopolitical Power: Nations that achieve early breakthroughs in quantum computing
will establish a technological and knowledge base that others will struggle to replicate.
Dominance in quantum will also allow countries to shape global technology standards
and norms, influencing international regulations. Furthermore, leading quantum nations
may impose export controls to restrict access to key technologies, preventing adversaries
from catching up. With their potential for enhanced stability and scalability, topology
qubit would likely solidify the dominance of leading quantum nations. Quantum Computing:
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NATIONAL SECURITY IMPERATIVES FOR INDIA
Quantum computing is a dual-use technology with transformative implications for defense,
intelligence, and cybersecurity. While India has made strides through its National Quantum
Mission, a strategic framework is essential to navigate both opportunities and threats.
Accelerating Quantum Computing and Security Preparedness : Breakthroughs in qubit
stability, error correction, and quantum software signify accelerating progress. India must
prepare for two scenarios:
• Incremental Advances: Gradual improvements in qubits, control systems, and
algorithms.
• Disruptive Breakthroughs: New platforms (e.g., silicon spin or topological qubits) or
novel error correction techniques that drastically shorten the quantum timeline.
Advancements in quantum technology would expose the country to increased risk of
technological surprise and strategic blind spots. Being caught off guard by quantum
driven advancements would jeopardize national security, economic competitiveness, and
technological leadership.
Key Recommendations to address the uncertainty associated with quantum timeline:
• Continuous Monitoring: Establish a task force to track global quantum advancements.
• Cryptographic Intelligence: Assess vulnerabilities in critical national systems.
• Directives and guidelines on crypto agility to ensure organizations from leading
industry sectors including critical sector are ready to quickly adapt to the possible
breakthroughs.
• PQC Transition Plan: Involving risk prioritization-based transition and roadmap,
accelerated POCs, testing and certification, and exchanging information about the
deployments.
• Early Warning System: Leverage scientific intelligence for potential breakthroughs.
• Technology Access Agreements: Establish bilateral partnerships for rapid adoption,
especially the modalities that offer scalability, including topology qubit.
• Flexible R&D Funding: Adapt investment priorities based on emerging breakthroughs.
CONCLUSION
India’s quantum security strategy must integrate technology monitoring, research flexibility,
and supply chain security while leveraging global partnerships and domestic innovation.
A proactive, multi-pronged approach will ensure national security remains resilient in the
quantum era. Quantum Computing:
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NOTES Quantum Computing:
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