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Dr. Arvind Virmani
Member, NITI Ayog Introduction
World in mid-21
st
century: Update
Bipolar World [Virmani(2004)]
Tripolar World [Virmani(2005)]
Multipolar Transition [Virmani(2006)]
India-US Partnership (EPW 2006)
Power Pyramid
International environment
Evolution of power
India & other powers
Economic, Military, Overall
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 20232 Power Pyramid & Global environment
DIPLOMACY
MILITARY
-----------------------------------
TECHNOLOGY -STRATEGIC
TECHNOLOGY -GENERAL
----------------------------------------------------
ECONOMY
GEOPOLITICS
GLOBAL ECONOMY
SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
DOMESTICINTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
GLOBAL ECONOMY
Nov 4, 2023member(av), niti ayog3 Index of Power
VIP Index of power
Power is relative: USA is benchmark (VIP = 1)
Economic(VIPe), Military (VIPm), Total (VIP)
Superpower & Great Power
Number 1 or 2 in every dimension(SP)
Top 3 in most dimensions (GP)
India’s projected power: Growth assumption
Per capita GDP (5.4), GDP (6%), Pop gr (0.6%)
Evolution of Econ(VIPe) & Military(VIPm) Power
India’s power relative t0 China-VIPe,VIPm,VIP(fig 2)
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 20234 Fig 1: Economic Power Index (VIPe)
VIPerelative to USA(= 1)
China 0.63 => 0.92 (blue)
India 0.15 (2022) => 0.75
(2050) –redline
EU (incl Germany, France):
0.8 to o.67 (green)
India overtakes Japan
(blue), Germany in 3-5 yrs
Russia (purple), UK
(orange) -declining trend
Nov 4, 2023member(av), niti ayog50.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049
Evolution of Economic Power (VIPe): 2003-2050
China EU India
Japan Russia(RF) UK Table 1: Index of Economic power (VIPe)2020 2035 2050
France 0.12 0.11 0.10
Russia (RF)0.13 0.11 0.10
UK 0.12 0.12 0.12
Indonesia0.07 0.12 0.20
Turkiye 0.08 0.13 0.18
Japan 0.21 0.16 0.14
Germany 0.20 0.17 0.14
India 0.14 0.34 0.75
China 0.60 0.87 0.92
USA 1.00 1.00 1.00
EU 0.78 0.73 0.67
Demographic decline
Russia, Ger, Jap, Fr
Rising economic powers
Indonesia, Turkiye
Potential power (VIPe)
Superpower = 0.5 to 0.6
USSR peak: 0.35, East
block: 0.45
Great power > 0.25
Japan <0.25 at peak
Nov 4, 2023member(av), niti ayog6 Table 2: VIPmMilitary Power
India/China: <1/4 2020
to >1/3(2035) & >1/2 (2050)
4
th
power: Bigger gap
UK 1/3 of India in 2050
Potential Superpower:
VIPm> 0.5, VIP > 0.5
Potential Great power:
VIPm> 0.25, VIP > 0.25
Nov 4, 2023member(av), niti ayog72020 2035 2050
Japan 0.06 0.06 0.05
Germany 0.07 0.06 0.05
France 0.07 0.07 0.06
Russia (RF)0.08 0.07 0.07
UK 0.08 0.08 0.08
India 0.07 0.15 0.24
China 0.31 0.43 0.45
USA 1.00 1.00 1.00
Note: Japanese proj based on data upto 2021 Fig 2: India/China: VIPe, VIPm, VIP
Economic power (VIPe):
24% in 2022 to 81% in 2050
of China’s (blueline)
Military power: 20%(2022)
to 53% (2050); green
India’s total power(VIP):
22%=>65% China’s (2050),
red line
India’s GDPppp: 39% of
China in 2022) to 94% in
2050 (not shown)
Nov 4, 2023member(av), niti ayog820%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
Indian/China Power ratios; VIP, VIPe and VIPm
VIP VIPe VIPm World at mid-21
st
Century
Tripolar World with a multipolar Rim
Superpowers: USA, China; Great power: India
Multipolar Rim: Russia, France, Japan, Germany
remain top 3 in selected domains. EU economic power
High Tech Decoupling: Two tech blocks loosely led by
USA, China. India (iCET) in former, Russia in latter
Partial Economic decoupling: Amorphous Grps, with
greater intra-grp & less inter-grp, Trade & FDI.
India important “partner” of US group, with selective
technology & trade relations with Russia
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 20239 Regional dimensions of power
Economic community, Common market
Majority of global Trade is regional
International trade drives productivity
EgUSA, Canada, Mexico (MES, Product diversity)
Our region: South Asia, Indian Ocean Litoral
Step-up Connectivity: Transport, Pipeline, Telecom, HR
Financial links require Convertible Rupee (FCDR)
Military connectivity (IOR, Indo-pacific, South)
Production & export of weapons
Dual use technology: Technology software driven
Indian advantage: Engineering manpower (GCC)
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 202310 China: Challenge & opportunity
PRC manufactured export monopoly (2022)
Telecom eqpt, EDP &Office eqpt: 40% of world
Textile 47%, Clothing (32%)
Much higher concentrations at 6, 8 & 10 digit
Domestic Anti-trust, international?
Labor intensive supply chains PRC
PRC monopolization through Asymmetric trade,
technology, economic & subsidy policy.
Optimal response {PRC): Symmetry, Reciprocity
4th September, 202311Member(av) Trade & Industrial policy
Towards a dualistic trade policy
Traditional trade theory account for consumer gains, but
not dynamic gains from investment & exports
One policy for PRC & similar countries
No RCEP ieback door FTA with PRC as
FTAs with ASEAN, Japan, S Korea, Australia
Another for Rest of World
FTAs with Developed market economy
Attract MNC led. Labor intensive supply chains to India
PLI (MES) in supporting role
4th September, 202312Member(av) Tripolar World: USA, China, India
Geopolitical, Military, Economic Imbalance(2025-40)
Cost effective Deterrence
Bilateral defense Cooperation with QUAD members
Escalation ladder: Multilevel, Multilayered defense
Atman Nirbhar: Military Industrial complex(Pvt-Pub)
Frontier technology: ICET; Defense R&D Commission
Grey war, hybrid war
High Tech decoupling to thwart sREADstrategy
Partial Ec. decoupling: CCP monopoly rents
Economic community, Common market (SA; IOR/IOL)
Paradox: Power rank(3) >> Income rank(90)
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 202313 References
Arvind Virmani, "Economic Performance, Power Potential and Global Governance: Towards a New
International Order," Working Paper No. 150, ICRIER, December 2004. http://icrier.org/pdf/wp150.pdf,
http://icrier.org/?s=working+papers.
Arvind Virmani, "A Tripolar Century: USA, China and India," Working Paper No. 160, ICRIER, March,
2005. http://icrier.org/pdf/wp160.pdf, http://icrier.org/?s=working+papers.
Arvind Virmani, “From Uni-polar To Tri-polar World: The Multi-polar Transition Paradox,Academic
Foundation, Delhi, 2009. Chapter can be downloaded from
drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B3Pn0JHQz0H0cU41LTVnNHdtMjQ?resourcekey=0-Fs877AMo2AFxb3rlXY-
pVQ&usp=sharing.
Arvind Virmani, “World Economy, Geopolitics and Global Strategy: Indo-US Relations in the 21
st
Century”,
Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. XLI No. 43-44, November 4-10, 2006, pp. 4601-4612.
India Great Power 2050? Arvind Virmani -India Great Power? (google.com)
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 202314
Member, NITI Ayog Introduction
World in mid-21
st
century: Update
Bipolar World [Virmani(2004)]
Tripolar World [Virmani(2005)]
Multipolar Transition [Virmani(2006)]
India-US Partnership (EPW 2006)
Power Pyramid
International environment
Evolution of power
India & other powers
Economic, Military, Overall
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 20232 Power Pyramid & Global environment
DIPLOMACY
MILITARY
-----------------------------------
TECHNOLOGY -STRATEGIC
TECHNOLOGY -GENERAL
----------------------------------------------------
ECONOMY
GEOPOLITICS
GLOBAL ECONOMY
SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
DOMESTICINTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
GLOBAL ECONOMY
Nov 4, 2023member(av), niti ayog3 Index of Power
VIP Index of power
Power is relative: USA is benchmark (VIP = 1)
Economic(VIPe), Military (VIPm), Total (VIP)
Superpower & Great Power
Number 1 or 2 in every dimension(SP)
Top 3 in most dimensions (GP)
India’s projected power: Growth assumption
Per capita GDP (5.4), GDP (6%), Pop gr (0.6%)
Evolution of Econ(VIPe) & Military(VIPm) Power
India’s power relative t0 China-VIPe,VIPm,VIP(fig 2)
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 20234 Fig 1: Economic Power Index (VIPe)
VIPerelative to USA(= 1)
China 0.63 => 0.92 (blue)
India 0.15 (2022) => 0.75
(2050) –redline
EU (incl Germany, France):
0.8 to o.67 (green)
India overtakes Japan
(blue), Germany in 3-5 yrs
Russia (purple), UK
(orange) -declining trend
Nov 4, 2023member(av), niti ayog50.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049
Evolution of Economic Power (VIPe): 2003-2050
China EU India
Japan Russia(RF) UK Table 1: Index of Economic power (VIPe)2020 2035 2050
France 0.12 0.11 0.10
Russia (RF)0.13 0.11 0.10
UK 0.12 0.12 0.12
Indonesia0.07 0.12 0.20
Turkiye 0.08 0.13 0.18
Japan 0.21 0.16 0.14
Germany 0.20 0.17 0.14
India 0.14 0.34 0.75
China 0.60 0.87 0.92
USA 1.00 1.00 1.00
EU 0.78 0.73 0.67
Demographic decline
Russia, Ger, Jap, Fr
Rising economic powers
Indonesia, Turkiye
Potential power (VIPe)
Superpower = 0.5 to 0.6
USSR peak: 0.35, East
block: 0.45
Great power > 0.25
Japan <0.25 at peak
Nov 4, 2023member(av), niti ayog6 Table 2: VIPmMilitary Power
India/China: <1/4 2020
to >1/3(2035) & >1/2 (2050)
4
th
power: Bigger gap
UK 1/3 of India in 2050
Potential Superpower:
VIPm> 0.5, VIP > 0.5
Potential Great power:
VIPm> 0.25, VIP > 0.25
Nov 4, 2023member(av), niti ayog72020 2035 2050
Japan 0.06 0.06 0.05
Germany 0.07 0.06 0.05
France 0.07 0.07 0.06
Russia (RF)0.08 0.07 0.07
UK 0.08 0.08 0.08
India 0.07 0.15 0.24
China 0.31 0.43 0.45
USA 1.00 1.00 1.00
Note: Japanese proj based on data upto 2021 Fig 2: India/China: VIPe, VIPm, VIP
Economic power (VIPe):
24% in 2022 to 81% in 2050
of China’s (blueline)
Military power: 20%(2022)
to 53% (2050); green
India’s total power(VIP):
22%=>65% China’s (2050),
red line
India’s GDPppp: 39% of
China in 2022) to 94% in
2050 (not shown)
Nov 4, 2023member(av), niti ayog820%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
Indian/China Power ratios; VIP, VIPe and VIPm
VIP VIPe VIPm World at mid-21
st
Century
Tripolar World with a multipolar Rim
Superpowers: USA, China; Great power: India
Multipolar Rim: Russia, France, Japan, Germany
remain top 3 in selected domains. EU economic power
High Tech Decoupling: Two tech blocks loosely led by
USA, China. India (iCET) in former, Russia in latter
Partial Economic decoupling: Amorphous Grps, with
greater intra-grp & less inter-grp, Trade & FDI.
India important “partner” of US group, with selective
technology & trade relations with Russia
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 20239 Regional dimensions of power
Economic community, Common market
Majority of global Trade is regional
International trade drives productivity
EgUSA, Canada, Mexico (MES, Product diversity)
Our region: South Asia, Indian Ocean Litoral
Step-up Connectivity: Transport, Pipeline, Telecom, HR
Financial links require Convertible Rupee (FCDR)
Military connectivity (IOR, Indo-pacific, South)
Production & export of weapons
Dual use technology: Technology software driven
Indian advantage: Engineering manpower (GCC)
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 202310 China: Challenge & opportunity
PRC manufactured export monopoly (2022)
Telecom eqpt, EDP &Office eqpt: 40% of world
Textile 47%, Clothing (32%)
Much higher concentrations at 6, 8 & 10 digit
Domestic Anti-trust, international?
Labor intensive supply chains PRC
PRC monopolization through Asymmetric trade,
technology, economic & subsidy policy.
Optimal response {PRC): Symmetry, Reciprocity
4th September, 202311Member(av) Trade & Industrial policy
Towards a dualistic trade policy
Traditional trade theory account for consumer gains, but
not dynamic gains from investment & exports
One policy for PRC & similar countries
No RCEP ieback door FTA with PRC as
FTAs with ASEAN, Japan, S Korea, Australia
Another for Rest of World
FTAs with Developed market economy
Attract MNC led. Labor intensive supply chains to India
PLI (MES) in supporting role
4th September, 202312Member(av) Tripolar World: USA, China, India
Geopolitical, Military, Economic Imbalance(2025-40)
Cost effective Deterrence
Bilateral defense Cooperation with QUAD members
Escalation ladder: Multilevel, Multilayered defense
Atman Nirbhar: Military Industrial complex(Pvt-Pub)
Frontier technology: ICET; Defense R&D Commission
Grey war, hybrid war
High Tech decoupling to thwart sREADstrategy
Partial Ec. decoupling: CCP monopoly rents
Economic community, Common market (SA; IOR/IOL)
Paradox: Power rank(3) >> Income rank(90)
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 202313 References
Arvind Virmani, "Economic Performance, Power Potential and Global Governance: Towards a New
International Order," Working Paper No. 150, ICRIER, December 2004. http://icrier.org/pdf/wp150.pdf,
http://icrier.org/?s=working+papers.
Arvind Virmani, "A Tripolar Century: USA, China and India," Working Paper No. 160, ICRIER, March,
2005. http://icrier.org/pdf/wp160.pdf, http://icrier.org/?s=working+papers.
Arvind Virmani, “From Uni-polar To Tri-polar World: The Multi-polar Transition Paradox,Academic
Foundation, Delhi, 2009. Chapter can be downloaded from
drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B3Pn0JHQz0H0cU41LTVnNHdtMjQ?resourcekey=0-Fs877AMo2AFxb3rlXY-
pVQ&usp=sharing.
Arvind Virmani, “World Economy, Geopolitics and Global Strategy: Indo-US Relations in the 21
st
Century”,
Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. XLI No. 43-44, November 4-10, 2006, pp. 4601-4612.
India Great Power 2050? Arvind Virmani -India Great Power? (google.com)
member(av), niti ayogNov 4, 202314