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VOL. 8
SECTORAL INSIGHTS:
WASTE
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO Copyright © NITI Aayog, 2026
NITI Aayog
Government of India,
Sansad Marg, New Delhi–110001, India
Citation:
NITI Aayog. (2026). Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights:
Waste (Vol. 8)
Available at: https://niti.gov.in/publications/division-reports
Disclaimer
1. This document is not a statement of policy by the National Institution for Transforming India
(hereinafter referred to as NITI Aayog). It has been prepared by the Green Transition, Energy,
Climate, and Environment Division of NITI Aayog under various Inter-Ministerial Working Groups
(IMWGs) constituted to develop Net Zero pathways for India.
2. Unless otherwise stated, NITI Aayog, in this regard, has not made any representation or warranty,
express or implied, as to the completeness or reliability of the information, data, findings, or
methodology presented in this document. While due care has been taken by the author(s) in the
preparation of this publication, the content is based on independently procured information and
analysis available at the time of writing and may not reflect the most current policy developments
or datasets.
3. The assertions, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the views of NITI Aayog or the Government of India, unless otherwise
mentioned. As such, NITI Aayog does not endorse or validate any of the specific views or policy
suggestions made herein by the author(s).
4. NITI Aayog shall not be liable under any circumstances, in law or equity, for any loss, damage,
liability, or expense incurred or suffered as a result of the use of or reliance upon the contents of
this document. Any reference to specific organisations, products, services, or data sources does not
constitute or imply an endorsement by NITI Aayog. Readers are encouraged to independently verify
the data and conduct their analysis before forming conclusions or taking any policy, academic, or
commercial decisions. SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT
BHARAT AND NET ZERO
SECTORAL
INSIGHTS: WASTE
(VOL. 8) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste iii Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste iv Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste v
Authors and
Acknowledgement
Leadership
Sh. Suman Bery
Vice Chairman, NITI Aayog
Sh. B. V. R. Subrahmanyam
CEO, NITI Aayog
Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj
Programme Director, Green Transition,
Energy & Climate Change Division,
NITI Aayog
Sh. Rajnath Ram
Adviser, Energy, NITI Aayog
Authors
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist,
NITI Aayog
Dr. Anjali Jain
Consultant Grade-II, NITI Aayog
Sh. Nitin Bajpai
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Sh. Emani Kumar
Executive Director, ICLEI South Asia
Ms. Soumya Chaturvedula
Director, ICLEI South Asia
Ms. Bedoshruti Sadhukhan
Associate Director, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Nikhil Kolsepatil
Programme Coordinator, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Rahul
Senior Manager, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Souhardo Chakraborty
Manager, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Bhupandra Salodia
Deputy Manager, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Prateek Mishra
Assistant Manager, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Shubh Lalit Dhadiwal
Project Officer, ICLEI South Asia
Peer Reviewers
Sh. Sharath Kumar Pallerla
Scientist G, Ministry of Environment,
Forest & Climate
Change (MoEFCC)
Sh. Ajay Raghava
Scientist E, Ministry of Environment, Forest
& Climate Change (MoEFCC)
Dr. M Karthik
Senior Principal Scientist, CSIR-National
Environmental Engineering Research
Institute
Dr. Debishree Khan
Scientist, CSIR-National Environmental
Engineering Research Institute Editors
Ms. Aastha Manocha
Editor and Communication Consultant
(Independent)
Ms. Rishu Nigam
Lead Editor and Communication Consultant
(Independent)
Ms. Srishti Dewan
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Communication and Research &
Networking Division, NITI Aayog
Ms. Anna Roy
Programme Director, Research & Networking
Sh. Yugal Kishore Joshi
Lead, Communication
Ms. Keerti Tiwari
Director, Communication
Dr. Banusri Velpandian
Senior Specialist, Research and Networking
Ms. Sonia Sachdeva Sharma
Consultant, Communication
Sh. Sanchit Jindal
Assistant Section Officer, Research and
Networking
Sh. Souvik Chongder
Young Professional, Communication
NITI Design Team
NITI Maps & Charts Team Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste vii
Contents
List of Figures ix
List of Tables x
List of Abbreviations xii
Executive Summary xv
1. Background..................................................................................................................................................1
2. Overview of Waste Sector in India...........................................................................................................5
2.1 Existing Solid Waste Management (SWM) Practices in India 6
2.2 Existing Domestic Wastewater Management in India 9
2.3 Key Policies and Regulations 10
2.4 National Level Programmes and Projects 11
2.5 India’s Baseline GHG Emissions 12
3. Methodology for Scenario Modelling....................................................................................................15
3.1 Modelling Approaches 16
3.2 Data Projections 19
3.3 Scenarios Modelled 20
4. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis........................................................................................21
4.1 Future Scenario of Waste Sector 22
4.2 Emissions Trajectory and Modelling Framework 25
5. Challenges. .................................................................................................................................................33
6. Suggestions.................................................................................................................................................37
Annexures...........................................................................................................................................................45
References. ..........................................................................................................................................................65 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste viii
List of Figures
Figure 2.1Composition of solid waste in India, 20207
Figure 2.2Subsector-wise share of GHG emissions in India’s waste sector in 202014
Figure 2.3Share of green house gases in India’s waste sector emissions in 202014
Figure 4.1Solid waste generation projections in India23
Figure 4.2Domestic wastewater generation projections in India23
Figure 4.3Industrial production projections in India24
Figure 4.4Industrial wastewater generation projections in India24
Figure 4.5GHG emissions from waste sector in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) vs the
Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
30 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste ix
List of Tables
Table 2.1 India’s GHG emissions from waste in 202013
Table 3.1 Type of emission factor and level of methodological tier adopted for
national-level GHG estimates for waste sector
18
Table 3.2 Data sources for waste sector GHG estimates18
Table 4.1 Targets for municipal solid waste25
Table 4.2 Targets for domestic wastewater26
Table 4.3 Targets for industrial wastewater26
Table 4.4 Sub-sectoral goals, targets, and strategies for the waste sector under the
Net Zero Scenario
28
Table 4.5 GHG emissions reduction by waste sector under Net Zero Scenario 30 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste x Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste xi
List of Abbreviations
AFD Agence Française de Développement
AMRUT Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation
AR5 Fifth Assessment Report
ASP Activated Sludge Process
BOD Biological Oxygen Demand
BUR Biennial Update Report
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CAPEX Capital Expenditure
CBG Compressed Biogas
CEA Central Electricity Authority
CH
4 Methane
CITIIS City Investments to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO
2 Carbon Dioxide
COD Chemical Oxygen Demand
COP Conference of the Parties
CPCB Central Pollution Control Board
CPHEEO Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organisation
CPS Current Policy Scenario
CS Country-Specific
CSE Centre for Science and Environment
CT Community Toilet
DeWATS Decentralised Wastewater and Treatment System
DOC Degradable Organic Carbon
DWSC District Water Sanitation Committee
EE Energy Efficiency
EF Emission Factor List of Abbreviations Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xii
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment
EPR Extended Producer Responsibility
ETF Enhanced Transparency Framework
EU European Union
E-waste Electronic Waste
FAB Fluidised Aerobic Bioreactor
FC Finance Commission
F
IND-COM Factor for Industrial and Commercial co-discharged protein into the sewer
system
F
NON-CON Factor for Non-Consumed protein added to the wastewater
F
NPR Fraction of Nitrogen in Protein
FOD First Order Decay
FSSM Faecal Sludge and Septage Management
FSTP Faecal Sludge Treatment Plant
GCF Green Climate Fund
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GOBARdhan Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan
GoI Government of India
GP Gram Panchayat
GWP Global Warming Potential
I&D Interception and Diversion
ICMR Indian Council of Medical Research
IESS India Energy Security Scenario
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau
kWh Kilowatt Hours
LCAP Low Carbon Action Plan
LFG Landfill Gas
LG Local Government
LiFE Lifestyle for Environment
MBBR Moving Bed Biofilm Reactor
MBR Membrane Bioreactor
MCF Methane Correction Factor
MDB Multilateral Development Bank List of Abbreviations Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xiii
MLD Million Litres per Day
MoEFCC Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change
MoHUA Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs
MoSPI Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
MRF Material Recovery Facility
MSW Municipal Solid Waste
MtCO
2
e Million Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
Mtoe Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent
MU Million Units
MWh Mega-Watt Hour
N₂O Nitrous Oxide
NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change
NATCOM National Communication
NCQG New Collective Quantified Goal
NDC Nationally Determined Contributions
NEERI National Environmental Engineering Research Institute
NFHS National Family Health Survey
NFSRTW National Framework on Safe Reuse of Treated Water
NITI National Institution for Transforming India
NIUA National Institute of Urban Affairs
N
SLUDGE Nitrogen Removed from Sludge
NSSO National Sample Survey Organisation
NZS Net Zero Scenario
O&M Operations and Maintenance
OPEX Operational Expenditure
PIB Press Information Bureau
PPP Public Private Partnership
PT Public Toilet
QA Quality Assurance
QC Quality Control
RDD Rural Development Department
RDF Refused Derived Fuel
RE Renewable Energy
SAR Second Assessment Report
SATAT Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation List of Abbreviations Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xiv
SBM Swachh Bharat Mission
SBR Sequencing Batch Reactor
SCF Segregated Combustible Fraction
SDG Sustainable Development Goal
SLB Service Level Benchmark
STP Sewage Treatment Plant
SWDS Solid Waste Disposal Site
SWM Solid Waste Management
TOW Tonnes of Organic Waste
TPD Tonnes Per Day
UASB Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket
ULB Urban Local Body
UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UT Union Territory
WSP Waste Stabilisation Ponds
WtE Waste-to-Energy
Note: Currency Conversion: In this report, “INR” refers to Indian Rupee; USD 1 = INR 88.19 as per the exchange rate
on 08 September 2025. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste xv
Executive Summary
In 2020, India’s total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions (excluding Land Use, Land-Use
Change, and Forestry [LULUCF]) were estimated at 2,959 million tonnes of CO
2
equivalent
(MtCO₂e), with per capita emissions of 2.20 tCO
2
e (MoEFCC, 2024). India’s cumulative and
per capita emissions remain far below the global average.
As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, India revised its Nationally Determined Contributions
(NDCs) in 2022, committing to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030
(based on 2005 levels), promote sustainable lifestyles through the Lifestyle for Environment
(LiFE) initiative, and reach Net Zero emissions by 2070 under the Panchamrit Action Plan as
announced at the 26
th
Conference of the Parties (COP26). These commitments cover renewable
energy, energy efficiency, climate resilient urbanisation, and waste management.
In 2020, the waste sector accounted for 75.64 MtCO
2
e, which is 2.56% of India’s total
emissions, as per India’s fourth Biennial Update Report (BUR-4). With India’s urban population
share expected to grow from 34.9% in 2020 to 53% in 2050, material consumption and waste
generation are expected to rise significantly. In 2020, India generated 100.9 million tonnes (Mt)
of municipal solid waste and 221,173 million litres per day (MLD) of domestic wastewater.
This scale of waste and wastewater generation places strain on collection systems, treatment
infrastructure, and disposal pathways. Cities like Indore, Pune and Bengaluru have demonstrated
the potential of modernised waste systems through robust segregation, material recovery,
bio-methanation and public-private partnership (PPP) models but challenges remain across
most cities: limited treatment capacity, poor segregation practices, plastic waste leakage, and
large volumes of untreated wastewater. The management of wastewater, in particular, presents
certain structural deficiencies, as outlined below:
39% sewer network coverage
48% of households are reliant on septic tanks; 11% on pit latrines
Only 44.9% of sewage is collected and treated; the remaining sewage collected
remains untreated due to infrastructure deficits Executive Summary Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xvi
Policy and Planning Alignment
A climate-aligned waste transition connects India’s long-term climate strategy with ongoing
national missions such as Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM 2.0), Atal Mission for Rejuvenation
and Urban Transformation (AMRUT), and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 6, 11, 12
and 13. Strengthened governance, technology upgrades, integration of informal workers, and
circularity-driven interventions underpin this transition.
This study, Pathways to Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste, highlights the sector’s potential
to contribute to India’s climate commitments. It presents a detailed emissions trajectory for
the waste sector, based on two distinct scenarios: Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net
Zero Scenario (NZS), offering insights into the transformative shifts required to meet long-
term goals.
Emissions Trajectory and Modelling Framework
Emissions modelling for solid waste, domestic wastewater, and industrial wastewater has been
conducted under both Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario. Both scenarios use
2020 as the baseline year and apply the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
2006 Guidelines (Volume 5: Waste), using Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 approaches with default
and country-specific emission factors.
The model reflects the effects of population growth, behavioural patterns, technological
adoption, and policy targets across 2050, and 2070.
Key Drivers Across Scenarios
Solid Waste Management
Current Policy Scenario: Solid waste generation rises from 158.9 Mt in 2030 to
476.2 Mt by 2070 (Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.8%). Treatment
reaches 85% by 2050, but unmanaged fractions persist
Net Zero Scenario: Per-capita waste generation is capped at 0.622 kg/day post 2047;
100% collection and segregation is achieved; treatment levels reach 85% nationally
Domestic Wastewater
Current Policy Scenario: Sewer connectivity increases to 65% by 2070, with partial
methane recovery
Net Zero Scenario: Sewer connectivity expands to 85%, enabling universal methane
capture and advanced treatment Executive Summary Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xvii
Industrial Wastewater
Current Policy Scenario: Methane recovery improves but remains partial
Net Zero Scenario: 100% methane recovery by 2040, combined with treatment
system upgrades by 2035
Waste Sector Emissions Outlook: Current Policy Scenario vs Net Zero
Scenario
The modelling shows that without enhanced ambition, emissions from the waste sector will
continue to rise steadily through 2070 under the Current Policy Scenario. Conversely, the Net
Zero Scenario demonstrates a sharp decline, driven by circularity, universal collection, methane
recovery, and advanced treatment technologies. In the Current Policy Scenario, emissions grow
more than three times by 2070 compared to emissions in 2020, while in the Net Zero Scenario,
emissions decline sharply due to the adoption of scientific waste handling techniques such as
bio-methanation, bio-Compressed Natural Gas (bio-CNG), and methane recovery. Industrial
and domestic wastewater emissions fall significantly in the Net Zero Scenario as both sectors
adopt advanced anaerobic treatment systems, resulting in much lower emissions compared
with Current Policy Scenario.
Projected Emissions Trajectory: Current Policy Scenario vs Net Zero
Scenario
Current Policy Scenario: Waste sector emissions grow from 75.64 MtCO
2
e in 2020
to 266.10 MtCO
2
e by 2070, an increase of 3.5x during these years
Net Zero Scenario: Emissions fall to 10.9 MtCO
2
e by 2070, a reduction of 95.9%
compared to Current Policy Scenario level
The difference between the two pathways arises from technology choice, treatment coverage,
and methane recovery. Scientific disposal methods such as bio-methanation, bio-CNG, and
advanced anaerobic digestion result in significantly lower methane emissions compared with
conventional composting and unmanaged disposal.
Sub-sectoral Shifts: Industrial and domestic wastewater emissions decline steeply in Net Zero
Scenario due to universal adoption of anaerobic treatment systems, improved sewerage, and
high methane recovery. By 2070:
Current Policy Scenario: Industrial wastewater (47%) dominates emissions,
followed by domestic wastewater (36%) and solid waste (17%)
Net Zero Scenario: Emissions from industrial wastewater reach near to zero, while
the reduction in emissions from domestic wastewater and solid waste is around
98.5% and 78.8% respectively from their values in Current Policy Scenario Executive Summary Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xviii
Key Levers for Waste Sector Transition
Waste Reduction and Source Segregation
Strengthening Primary and Secondary Collection and Transportation
Processing and Resource Recovery
Scientific Disposal and Bio-remediation
Universal access to scientific and economical toilets
Safe collection and transfer to treatment facilities
Maximising treatment and faecal sludge treatment with methane recovery
Enhancing circularity through reuse and recycling
Implement well-managed aerobic systems (≈0 MCF)
Enhance methane recovery from industrial wastewater
Strengthening Technical Expertise and Capacity Building
Advancing Climate-based Participatory Budgeting and Sustainable Procurement
Enabling Private Sector Involvement
Strengthening Public Awareness and Engagement
Establishing a Robust Monitoring and Evaluation Framework
Financing sources include PPPs, carbon credits, green bonds, international climate funds, and
national missions.
Conclusion
Continuing down the Current Policy Scenario pathway, India’s waste sector emissions are
projected to nearly double by 2070. By contrast, the Net Zero Scenario pathway demonstrates
the potential for a 95.9% reduction through circularity, advanced treatment technologies,
universal methane recovery, and integrated waste systems. Aligning national missions with
low-carbon pathways, strengthening urban governance, and promoting sustainable waste
practices will position the waste sector as a critical enabler of India’s long-term goals of
advancing environmental health, resource efficiency, and a resilient Net Zero future by 2070. 1
BACKGROUND Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 2
India is the fastest-growing large economy and is poised to continue on this path. India aspires
to be the third-largest economy by 2027 and a developed nation (Viksit Bharat) with a USD
30 trillion economy by 2047, when it marks 100 years of its independence
1
.
As India’s economic growth accelerates, its energy demand and corresponding environmental
impact, especially Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, will also increase. In 2020, India’s
total GHG emissions, excluding Land Use Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), were
estimated to be 2,959 MtCO
2
e, with per capita GHG emissions of 2.20 tCO
2
e
2
. However, India’s
global carbon footprint remains significantly below the global average, both in cumulative
and per capita terms (MoEFCC, 2024).
As a prominent signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), India submitted its first Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2015,
and updated it in 2022 (PIB, 2022). The NDCs highlight a healthy and sustainable way of
living through a mass movement, Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE), to combat climate change
and reduce the country’s emissions intensity of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 45%
by 2030 from 2005 levels (UNFCCC, 2022). At the Conference of Parties, 26 (COP 26) in
2021, the Prime Minister of India announced that India would achieve Net Zero emissions
by 2070 and introduced its Panchamrit Action Plan (five key climate actions). These targets
were incorporated into the updated NDCs (PIB, 2022). These NDCs focus on broader climate
mitigation and adaptation strategies supported by ambitious national plans, such as a thrust on
renewable energy (RE) and enhancing energy efficiency (EE), climate-resilient urban centres,
sustainable green transportation, networks, Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), and the Make in
India programme (MoEFCC, 2018). These efforts collectively aim to reduce the emission
intensity and are not bound to sector-specific individual targets and mitigation actions (Down
to Earth, 2022).
1 Press Information Bureau [PIB], 2024
2 Calculated based on population figures and national emission estimates for 2020 reported in India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report
(BUR-4).
Background
1 Background Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
3
Box 1: What are Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)?
NDCs are central to the Paris Agreement, as outlined in Article 4, and represent each
country’s commitment to reducing emissions and adapting to climate change impacts.
Under Article 4, countries are required to prepare, communicate, and update their NDCs
every five years, with each successive submission reflecting increased ambition. This
submission cycle, which began with the first round of NDCs in 2020 and every five
years thereafter (e.g., 2025, 2030), is designed to ensure that global climate goals are
progressively achieved.
Source: https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs.
India’s growing economy material and product footprint. The expansion of GDP by nearly
eight-fold will lead to an enormous increase in industrial and waste output. For example, the
annual material consumption increased from 1.18 billion tonnes to 7 billion tonnes between
1970 and 2015 and is expected to reach 14.2 billion tonnes by 2030 (Ministry of Housing
and Urban Affairs [MoHUA], 2021). This has significantly increased waste generation and
GHG emissions over the years. In 2020, the waste sector contributed to only 2.56% of India’s
total GHG emissions, yet its emissions have increased by more than 3 times between 1994
and 2020 (MoEFCC, 2024). Wastewater treatment and discharge (domestic and industrial)
contributed to 73.9% of the sector’s emissions, while solid waste disposal contributed 26.1%
(MoEFCC, 2024). Methane (CH
4
) is the primary GHG emitted from solid waste disposal, as
well as from domestic and industrial wastewater treatment and discharge (ICLEI South Asia,
2023). India’s urban population is set to reach 53% by 2050, compared to 35% in 2020
3
.
This rapid urbanisation, along with population growth, economic development, and changing
lifestyles, is expected to substantially increase the quantum of municipal solid waste (MSW)
and domestic and industrial wastewater, thereby increasing the emissions.
The waste sector is emerging as a critical focus area due to its significant potential to reduce
GHG emissions, particularly CH
4
, with its higher warming potential than CO
2
. Therefore,
strengthening capacities and governance mechanisms are essential to integrate low-carbon
solutions into the planning, design, implementation, and financing of Municipal Solid Waste
(MSW) and wastewater management systems. This would facilitate achieving overall climate-
compatible development that is aligned with the targets of national programmes. This includes
programmes such as Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) and Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and
Urban Transformation (AMRUT), but also with global commitments such as the SDG–6
3 ICLEI South Asia analysis based on the population data shared by NITI Aayog. Background Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
4
(Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG-7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG-11 (Sustainable
Cities and Communities), SDG-12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), and SDG-13
(Climate Action).
In this context, NITI Aayog undertook a detailed assessment for the waste sector until 2070.
This involved a baseline assessment and development of two scenarios–Current Policy Scenario
(CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS), using 2020 as the baseline year. 1 2
OVERVIEW OF WASTE
SECTOR IN INDIA Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 6
2
Overview of the
Waste Sector in India
There are complex challenges in managing diverse waste streams, including Municipal Solid
Waste (MSW), wastewater, plastic waste, bio-medical waste, construction and demolition
debris, hazardous waste, and electronic waste (e-waste). Rapid urbanisation, changing
consumption patterns, and population growth have significantly increased waste generation,
thus putting pressure on existing waste management systems. Untreated solid or liquid waste
leads to environmental degradation, contamination of water bodies, and public health risks.
India is steadily advancing towards sustainable waste management through strengthened
regulatory frameworks, decentralised solutions, innovative technologies, and an emphasis on
public-private partnerships. Ongoing initiatives like the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM)–Urban/
Gramin, Smart Cities Mission (SCM), City Investments to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain
2.0 (CITIIS 2.0) and AMRUT are pivotal in tackling diverse waste management challenges.
Policies such as the Solid Waste Management Rules 2016, Plastic Waste Management Rules
2016, and E-Waste Management Rules 2022 also provide essential support to state and local
governments for more efficient waste management. With a growing focus on circular economy
principles and resource recovery, India’s waste sector is evolving to align with environmental
sustainability goals.
2.1 Existing Solid Waste Management (SWM) Practices in India
Solid Waste Management (SWM) is a cornerstone of environmental sustainability. Effective
waste handling and management can safeguard public health, mitigate environmental pollution,
and conserve natural resources. This section delves into the state of SWM in the country,
exploring key aspects such as trends in waste generation, collection, transportation, treatment,
and disposal methods. It highlights the gaps in infrastructure, limited adoption of sustainable
technologies, and insufficient segregation and recycling practices. Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
7
Solid Waste Generation
The rising volume of waste generated in India is driven by population growth, urbanisation,
lifestyle changes, and evolving consumption patterns. Urban areas contribute disproportionately
to waste generation due to their dense population, industrial activity, and commercial
development. India generated an estimated total of 101 Mt of solid waste in 2020
4
. Of this,
61% ended up in landfills, and the remaining primarily underwent treatment, processing and
incineration.
In 2020, of the total waste processed in India, 28.5% was composted, 0.9% treated through bio-
methanation, 0.02% converted to bio-CNG, 0.5% waste recycled via Material Recovery Facility
(MRF), and 2.8% incinerated, including through Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF) and palletisation.
In terms of composition, Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) consisted of approximately 50%
organic or compostable material, 25% recyclables, 15% non-recyclable combustibles, and
10% miscellaneous waste as of 2020 (see Figure 2.1) (Centre for Science and Environment
[CSE], 2022).
Organic/
Compostable
50%
Recyclable/
resource
recoverable
fraction
25%
Non-
recyclable/
combustible
(RDF)
15%
Miscellaneous
Waste
10%
Figure 2.1: Composition of solid waste in India, 2020
Source: Toolkit Preparing City Solid Waste Action Plan under Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM 2.0), Centre for Science
and Environment (CSE)
Waste Collection and Transportation
In India, local authorities are primarily responsible for collecting and transporting solid waste
through primary and secondary collection methods. As per Swachh Bharat Mission (Urban)
2.0, 97% of Indian cities have implemented door-to-door waste collection systems, and
initiatives to promote source segregation are gaining traction, but with varying levels of success.
4 ICLEI South Asia analysis based on the data provided by NITI Aayog, NEERI, and data sourced from India Energy Security Scenario
(IESS) 2047. Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
8
Segregated waste is typically divided into biodegradable, recyclable, and non-recyclable
categories. However, rural areas have minimal waste segregation, although programmes like
the Swachh Bharat Mission (Gramin) are beginning to raise awareness about sustainable waste
management practices.
In India, compactors, tippers, and mini-trucks transport waste from collection points to treatment
or disposal sites. Larger cities often rely on waste transfer stations where waste is compacted
to optimise logistics before it is transported to its destination. However, inefficiencies in
transportation frequently leave waste uncollected in certain urban pockets.
Collection and transportation of waste have various gaps, including an inadequate workforce,
gaps in infrastructure for waste storage at source, and limited implementation of door-to-
door collection services. These services are often facilitated by municipal workers or private
contractors, but they lack synchronisation with transfer depots and transportation facilities. As
a result, informal secondary collection points, often referred to as garbage vulnerable spots,
tend to develop, where waste that does not make it to the formal collection system ends up
accumulating.
Processing and Disposal
India is gradually adopting advanced waste treatment technologies such as composting,
bio-methanation, bio-Compressed Natural Gas (bio-CNG), and Material Recovery Facility
(MRF) to segregate recyclable materials like plastics, metals, and paper. Many cities have
successfully implemented waste management initiatives through PPP models. Indore and
Pune, for example, have engaged private players in waste collection, transport, and treatment
operations. Indore’s composting and bio-methanation plants, operating under PPP agreements,
are noteworthy examples of sustainable and scalable waste management practices. Sanitary
landfills are used to dispose post-treatment residual waste. In other cities and towns, however,
inadequate infrastructure forces most of them to rely on open dumping, which poses significant
environmental and health risks. Emerging trends, technology and innovation in cities indicate
a shift toward decentralised waste management solutions. Localised approaches such as
home composting and small-scale treatment units are being adopted to reduce dependency
on transportation and landfill sites.
Integrating informal waste pickers and recyclers into formal systems has improved recycling
efficiency and provided livelihood opportunities. Additionally, technological advancements
have led to GPS-enabled vehicles for waste collection and sensor-based monitoring at landfills.
Despite these advancements, India’s solid waste management remains a mix of progress and
persistent challenges. Urban areas are moving towards innovative and technology-driven
solutions, while rural areas require more investment in infrastructure, formalisation of waste
systems, and community awareness. Waste treatment facilities are less developed in rural
areas. Composting pits for organic waste are commonly used at the household or community Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
9
level, and small-scale biogas plants are found in some regions. However, most rural waste is
openly dumped, leading to pollution and contamination of nearby water sources.
Box 2: Key Sources of Solid Waste
Solid waste can be broadly categorised into several types, based on their sources:
Urban Areas:
Household Waste: Residential waste constitutes a significant portion of urban waste.
It includes organic waste (food waste), packaging materials, plastics, metals, and other
non-biodegradable items.
Commercial Waste: This includes waste generated by markets, restaurants, shopping
malls, offices, and other commercial establishments. It is often a mix of organic and
inorganic materials.
Construction and Demolition Waste: Large-scale construction activities in urban areas
produce a significant amount of waste, including concrete, wood, and metal scraps.
E-waste: Urban areas, with their greater access to technology, are major producers of
electronic waste, which includes outdated and broken electronic devices.
Rural Areas:
Agricultural Waste: Agricultural activities are main sources of waste such as crop
residues, animal waste, and unused or discarded materials like plastics used in farming.
Household Waste: Like urban areas, rural households too generate organic waste (food
scraps) and inorganic waste (plastic wrappers, broken items).
Animal Waste: Livestock farming produces large amounts of manure, which, if
improperly managed, can cause pollution.
2.2 Existing Domestic Wastewater Management in India
Effective domestic wastewater management is vital to safeguard public health, maintain water
quality, and support ecosystem resilience. This section looks at prevalent practices, identifies
key challenges, and explores potential strategies to enhance wastewater management systems
across India.
Current Status of Domestic Wastewater Management
An estimated 221,173 million litres per day (MLD) of wastewater was generated in India
in 2020
5
. Population growth, urbanisation, and economic activities have led to a significant
increase in wastewater generation. Wastewater management remains a critical challenge due to
5 ICLEI South Asia analysis based on the data provided by NITI Aayog, NEERI, and data sourced from India Energy Security
Scenario (IESS) 2047. Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
10
infrastructure and operational gaps, particularly in sewage collection, treatment, and disposal
in India.
In India, around 47% of households used septic tanks as of 2020, and 33% had access to
centralised sewerage systems. Of the sewage collected, 55.1% remained untreated due to
infrastructure gaps (MoSPI, 2023). Among treatment facilities, 63.75% used aerobic treatment
solutions, and the remaining 36.25% used anaerobic processes (CPCB, 2021). The lack of
centralised infrastructure leads to large amounts of uncollected and untreated wastewater.
2.3 Key Policies and Regulations
India’s waste management ecosystem is governed by a comprehensive suite of regulations
and policies designed to manage waste generation, segregation, collection, transportation,
treatment, and disposal. This section reviews the existing regulatory landscape, key policies,
and national level programme and projects. Box 3 below describes key policies and regulations
for India’s waste sector.
Box 3: Key Policies and Regulations
Solid Waste Management Rules, 2016 (Amended in 2020): The Solid Waste Management
(SWM) Rules 2016 mandate the segregation of waste at source into biodegradable, non-
biodegradable, and hazardous categories and emphasise door-to-door collection, scientific
processing, and disposal of waste. The rules outline the responsibilities of key stakeholders,
including the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), the Ministry of
Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA), relevant departments, district collectors, the secretary in
charge of urban development in the state, pollution control boards, urban local bodies (ULBs),
waste generators, waste processing units, and facilities that utilise processed waste (such as
cement plants using Refused Derived Fuel (RDF) in managing Municipal Solid Waste (MSW).
The 2020 amendment notifies that the rules shall apply to villages with population of over 3000
as well (Central Public Health Environmental Engineering Organisation (CPHEEO), 2016).
Plastic Waste Management Rules, 2016 (Amended 2021): It aims to reduce the environmental
impact of plastic waste by emphasising source segregation, recycling, and environmentally
sound disposal. Key provisions include Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), which makes
producers, importers, and brand owners accountable for managing plastic waste. The 2021 and
2022 amendments strengthened these regulations by targeting single-use plastic items, specifying
a phased ban on products with low utility and high littering potential. They also introduced clearer
EPR guidelines and mandated plastic producers to submit action plans for waste management
(CPCB, 2021). Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
11
National Policy on Faecal Sludge and Septage Management, 2017: It aims to ensure safe and
sustainable sanitation practices. It addresses the challenges of managing human waste from on-
site sanitation systems like septic tanks and pit latrines. The policy emphasises the importance of
proper collection, transportation, treatment, and disposal of faecal sludge and septage to prevent
environmental pollution and protect public health (Ministry of Urban Development, 2017).
National Framework on the Safe Reuse of Treated Water (NFSRTW): The Ministry of Jal
Shakti published the NFSRTW in 2021 with the vision of ensuring widespread and safe reuse of
treated water in India (Ministry of Jal Shakti, 2022).
2.4 National Level Programmes and Projects
India has launched several national-level programmes and projects to address challenges in
solid waste management, domestic wastewater treatment, and industrial effluent control. Key
initiatives include the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban
Transformation (AMRUT), Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan (GoBARDHAN),
and Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation (SATAT). These programmes
together lay the institutional and infrastructural groundwork to support India’s long-term
sustainability and climate goals. Box 4 below describes the national level programmes and
projects for India’s waste sector.
Box 4: National Level Programmes and Projects
Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) and AMRUT 2.0: These
are the Government of India’s flagship programmes that aim to improve urban infrastructure and
quality of life. AMRUT, launched in 2015, focuses on providing amenities like water supply,
sewerage, urban transport, and green spaces in 500 selected cities. AMRUT 2.0, launched in
2021, builds upon the foundation of AMRUT, with a focus on providing universal water supply
and sewerage coverage in all statutory towns (PIB, 2022).
Swachh Bharat Mission-Urban (SBM-Urban): It is a nationwide cleanliness campaign
launched by the Government of India in 2014. SBM 2.0 was launched in 2021. The mission
aims to achieve 100% sanitation coverage in India by eliminating open defecation and
promoting Solid Waste Management (SWM). As a key outcome of the mission, 1,140
lakh tonnes of legacy waste have been bio-remediated from dump sites, which accounts
for 48% of the total legacy waste across 2,429 dump sites nationwide (MoHUA, 2021). Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
12
Swachh Bharat Mission-Gramin (SBM-Gramin): Swachh Bharat Mission Gramin and
Gramin 2.0 (SBM-G 2.0) focus on sustaining the achievements of its SBM (Gramin) phase,
while addressing gaps in sanitation. The mission prioritises solid and liquid waste management,
recognising sanitation as a crucial factor for health, dignity, and well-being (Ministry of Jal
Shakti, 2021).
City Investments to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain 2.0 (CITIIS 2.0): The Government of
India approved the CITIIS 2.0 program on 31 May 2023. Conceived by the Ministry of Housing
and Urban Affairs (MoHUA) in partnership with the Agence Française de Développement (AFD),
Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW), the European Union (EU), and the National Institute of
Urban Affairs (NIUA), the program will run for four years (2023–2027). The CITIIS 2.0 program
is supporting 18 cities in implementing circular economy, integrated waste management and
climate-resilient urban projects. It focuses on city-level innovation, state-level capacity building,
and national-level knowledge sharing to drive sustainable urban transformation (NIUA, 2023).
Smart Cities Mission (SCM): The Smart Cities Mission in India prioritises sustainable waste
management. Key initiatives focus on scientific waste management practices, including segregation
at source, waste-to-energy solutions, and recycling programs to minimise landfill dependence.
GoBARDHAN (Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan): The Ministry of Jal Shakti
launched this initiative under
Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) to promote the management of
organic waste and improve the management of solid waste. It primarily focuses on converting
organic waste from agricultural, livestock, and urban waste into bioenergy, including biogas, and
organic fertilisers (Ministry of Jal Shakti, 2023).
Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation (SATAT): The SATAT scheme,
launched by the Government of India in 2018, aims to promote the production and adoption of
Compressed Biogas (CBG) as an alternative fuel for transportation (Ministry of Petroleum and
Natural Gas, 2023).
2.5 India’s Baseline GHG Emissions
As part of its global climate commitments, India has been regularly reporting its greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions through the National Communications (NATCOMs) and Biennial Update
Reports (BURs). In addition, under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) established
by the Paris Agreement, all Parties are now mandated to submit a Biennial Transparency
Report (BTR) that provides transparent and consistent updates on national progress toward
climate goals.
India submitted its Fourth Biennial Update Report (BUR-4) in 2024, which includes its
economy-wide emissions for 2020 (MoEFCC, 2024). The BUR-4 reports Waste sector Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
13
emissions for three sub-sectors in line with IPCC Guidelines: i) solid waste management,
which includes disposal, biological treatment, and incineration; ii) domestic wastewater
treatment and discharge; and iii) industrial wastewater treatment and discharge.
As reported in India’s BUR-4, GHG emissions from the waste sector in 2020 were estimated
at 75.64 MtCO
2
e, accounting for 2.56% of the country’s total emissions, and 3.4% higher
than in 2019 (MoEFCC, 2024). Although the sector’s contribution to overall economy-wide
emissions remains modest, with rapid urbanisation, population growth, and shifts in consumer
behaviour, it is expected to increase further, though steadily. The sub-sectoral and gas-wise
breakup of India’s waste sector emissions is presented in Table 2.1 below.
Table 2.1: India’s GHG emissions from waste in 2020
Sub-Sector
CO
2
Emissions
(MtCO
2
)
CH
4
Emissions
(MtCH
4
)
N
2
O Emissions
(MtN
2
O)
Total (MtCO
2
e)
Solid Waste Management 0.479 0.917 - 19.75
Solid Waste Disposal - 0.911 - 19.14
Biological treatment of
solid waste
- 0.006 - 0.127
Incineration of waste 0.479 -- 0.479
Domestic Wastewater
Treatment & Discharge
- 0.772 0.0578 34.13
Industrial Wastewater
Treatment & Discharge
- 1.036 - 21.76
Total (Waste)0.479 2.726 0.0578 75.64
Note: The estimate considers a 100-year time-horizon Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC Second
Assessment Report (AR2).
As depicted in Table 2.1, wastewater treatment and discharge were the most significant
contributors to GHG emissions, accounting for approximately 74% of the sector’s total
emissions, i.e., 55.89 MtCO
2
e. Of this, domestic wastewater accounted for 34.13 MtCO
2
e of the
emissions (about 45% of the sectoral emissions), while industrial wastewater contributed about
21.76 MtCO
2
e (about 29% of the sectoral emissions). This dominant share of the wastewater
subsector reflects India’s continued reliance on methane-intensive sanitation systems, such
as septic tanks and pit latrines in households, along with high organic loads and inefficient
wastewater treatment in industries. The data also underscores the lack of methane recovery
systems in the wastewater sector and reliance on aerobic treatment systems.
Emissions from solid waste in 2020 were estimated at 19.75 MtCO
2
e, accounting for the
remaining 26% of sectoral emissions. Solid waste disposal is the predominant driver of
emissions, accounting for approximately 97% of the sub-sector emissions (i.e., 19.14 MtCO
2
e).
In comparison, emissions from biological treatment and incineration of solid waste were Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
14
limited to 0.127 MtCO
2
e and 0.479 MtCO
2
e, respectively. This reflects the dominance of
open dumping practices and the limited availability of scientifically managed sanitary landfills
nationwide.
In terms of GHGs (CO
2
e), methane (CH₄) was the dominant gas, accounting for 75.7% of
total waste-sector emissions in 2020. In contrast, Nitrous oxide (N
2
O) accounted for 23.7%
of the emissions, and the remaining 0.6% was attributed to carbon dioxide (CO
2
) emissions,
originating primarily from the incineration of solid waste (see Figure 2.3).
Solid Waste
Management
26%
Domestic
Wastewater
45%
Industrial
Wastewater
29%
CO
2
0.6%
CH
4
75.7%
N
2
O
23.7%
Figure 2.2: Subsector-wise share of GHG emissions
in India’s waste sector in 2020
Figure 2.3: Share of green house gases
in India’s waste sector emissions in 2020
Overall, India’s 2020 waste sector emissions profile underscores that wastewater treatment and
disposal systems accounted for the majority of emissions, followed by solid waste disposal. The
baseline emissions profile provides an overview of the sector’s current emissions landscape.
However, as India progresses toward its Net Zero emissions goal, it becomes essential to
understand how policies and additional measures could influence future emissions levels. In
this context, climate modelling has been undertaken for the waste sector up to 2070 under two
scenarios, Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS), to assess the potential
trajectory of waste emissions. The detailed methodology and results of this modelling exercise
are presented in the subsequent sections. 1 3
METHODOLOGY
FOR SCENARIO
MODELLING Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 16
3
Methodology
for Scenario
Modelling
3.1 Modelling Approaches
There are various analytical models available for projecting waste sector emissions and
understanding trends in waste generation, treatment technologies, and mitigation strategies.
The study
has adopted the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,
utilising Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 approaches across sub-sectors (see Table 3.1). A combination
of top-down and bottom-up approaches has been used to estimate emissions. Both default and
country-specific emission factors (EFs) have been utilised as appropriate.
The top-down approach relies on macro-level statistics like population, per capita waste
generation, and economic parameters. Top-down models typically apply Tier 1 emission
factors from the IPCC guidelines and are appropriate for national-level estimations or general
projections. However, top-down models lack granularity to account for specific technologies,
treatment pathways, or regional conditions. Bottom-up approaches, on the contrary, are
modelled with disaggregated, detailed datasets that include the treatment and disposal
pathways (e.g. composting, anaerobic digestion, incineration, landfill for solid waste), and
system parameters such as process efficiencies and recovery activities. The bottom-up models
enable technology-level assessments, scenario analysis, and relatively more accurate forecasts
of emissions. They are generally aligned with Tier 2 and Tier 3 methodologies, providing
increased accuracy and policy alignment. Methodology for Scenario Modelling Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
17
Box 5: Methodological Approach by Sub-Sector
Solid Waste
Solid Waste Disposal: Emissions from solid waste disposal sites (SWDS) have been estimated
using Tier 1 and Tier 2 approaches. The First Order Decay (FOD) model, as outlined in the
2006 IPCC Guidelines, has been employed to estimate methane emissions from the anaerobic
decomposition of degradable organic carbon (DOC) in solid waste over time. Key input parameters
include the fraction of degradable organic matter, methane generation rate, and site-specific
management factors. Default decay constants and methane correction factors (MCF) have been
used for calculations.
Biological Treatment of Solid Waste: Emissions from biological treatment, including composting
and anaerobic digestion, have been estimated using a Tier 1 approach. Activity data for biological
treatment processes are derived from national datasets. Emission calculations have been based
on default emission factors specified in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines.
Waste Incineration: A Tier 3 approach has been applied for estimating emissions from waste
incineration as per the IPCC guidelines. Activity data, including the fraction of waste incinerated
is integrated with combustion characteristics such as combustion efficiency and carbon oxidation
factors. Emissions have been calculated using default emission factors specified in the 2006 IPCC
Guidelines.
Wastewater
Domestic Wastewater: Methane emissions from domestic wastewater have been estimated using
the Tier 1 approach based on population data and wastewater generation rates. Key parameters
include methane correction factors, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and the fraction of
wastewater treated anaerobically. Nitrous oxide (N
2
O) emissions have been estimated using a
Tier 1 approach, applying nitrogen content in wastewater based on national protein consumption
data. Emission factors for indirect N₂O emissions from wastewater discharge have been sourced
from the IPCC Guidelines.
Industrial Wastewater: Industrial wastewater CH₄ emissions have been estimated using the Tier
1 approach, incorporating a top-down methodology for key industrial sectors. Methane generation
potential is derived using sector-specific chemical oxygen demand (COD) or BOD values. Activity
data on industrial wastewater discharge and treatment pathways have been integrated with IPCC
default emission factors, considering the lack of detailed plant-level or process-specific data. Methodology for Scenario Modelling Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
18
Table 3.1: Type of emission factor and level of methodological tier adopted for national-level GHG
estimates for waste sector
IPCC
ID
GHG source & sink categories
CH
4
N
2
O
Method
Applied
Emission
Factor
Method
Applied
Emission
Factor
4A Solid Waste Disposal T1, T2 D, CS — —
4B
Biological Treatment of Solid
Waste
T1 D T1 D
4C1Waste IncinerationT3 D T3 D
4D1
Domestic wastewater treatment
and discharge
T1 D T1 D
4D1
Industrial wastewater treatment
and discharge
T1 CS — —
Notes: T: Tier; CS: Country-specific; D: IPCC default
A summary of the data sources utilised to estimate emissions is presented in Table 3.2 below.
Table 3.2: Data sources for waste sector GHG estimates
IPCC
ID
GHG source & sink
categories
Data Sources
4A Unmanaged Waste
Disposal Sites
Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB)
National Environmental Engineering Research Institute
(NEERI)
Central Public Health Environmental Engineering Institute
(CPHEEO)
NITI Aayog
Census of India
Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA)
Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) (Urban and Gramin)
IPCC 2006 Guidelines on national emission inventories
4B Biological Treatment
of Solid Waste
IPCC 2006 Guidelines on national emission inventories
CPCB
NEERI
SBM
4C1Waste Incineration IPCC 2006 Guidelines on national emission inventories
CPCB
NEERI Methodology for Scenario Modelling Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
19
IPCC
ID
GHG source & sink
categories
Data Sources
4D1Domestic wastewater
treatment and
discharge
CPCB
Census of India
National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO)
NEERI
India Third National Communication (NATCOM-III)
Biennial Update Report (BUR-III/IV)
Indian Council on Medical Research (ICMR)
IPCC 2006 Guidelines on national emission inventories
4D1Industrial wastewater
treatment and
discharge
NITI Aayog
CPCB
Economic Survey of India
Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries,
Government of India
Department of Food and Public Distribution, Ministry of
Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Government
of India (GoI)
NEERI
NATCOM-III
BUR – III/IV
IPCC 2006 Guidelines on national emission inventories
3.2 Data Projections
National-level projections extended to 2070 relied on a combination of interpolation,
extrapolation, and macro-level modelling. Key elements of the methodology used are:
Activity Data Projections: Population growth trends, combined with national
averages for per capita waste generation, BOD levels, per capita protein consumption.
Technological Assumptions: Incremental improvements in waste processing and
treatment have been modelled, reflecting anticipated advancements up to 2070.
Interpolation for Data Gaps: National datasets were used to interpolate missing
historical data, ensuring consistent trends across time periods.
Elasticity of Production: For industrial emissions, average elasticity of production
was calculated, which was used to forecast industrial production until 2070. This
methodology leverages economic trends and elasticity models to forecast future
industrial output based on macroeconomic changes.
6
Linear and Target-Based Approaches: Expansion in treatment capacity and reductions
in untreated sewage followed linear trajectories, aiming for zero untreated discharge.
6 Refer Annexure II – Part C for the detailed methodology on industrial production projections using elasticity method. Methodology for Scenario Modelling Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
20
3.3 Scenarios Modelled
Based on consultations with the working group comprising officials from MoEFCC, NEERI,
and NITI Aayog officials, two scenarios were developed to analyse emissions from India’s
waste sector. Annexure II contains detailed description of various data sources and assumptions
used in these scenarios. The broad definition of the two is as follows:
Current Policy Scenario (CPS): It represents projected GHG emissions based on
current trends, policies, and planned improvements. It reflects how emissions are
likely to evolve if India continues its current trajectory, gradually adopting cleaner
technologies and strengthening current waste management practices.
Net Zero Scenario (NZS): It outlines a transformative pathway to achieve Net Zero
emissions in India’s waste sector by 2070, aligning with the country’s broader climate
goals. The scenario builds on national policies, plans and initiatives, pushing for
more ambitious targets that go beyond current national commitments. This scenario
aims to enable a decisive shift toward a circular economy and sustainable waste
management practices.
Key policies, plans, and initiatives considered for Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero
Scenario for waste sector emission modelling include the following:
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), 2022
Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) 2.0 (Urban and Gramin)
Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) 2.0 (AMRUT 2.0)
Framing Guidelines for Model Land Uses, Development Controls, and Service Level
Benchmarks with Appropriate Enforcement Mechanisms for Rurban Clusters
Municipal Solid Waste Management Manual 2016 by the Central Public Health and
Environmental Engineering Organisation (CPHEEO, MoHUA)
Plastic Waste Management Rules, 2016 (Amended 2021)
National Policy on Faecal Sludge and Septage Management, 2017
National Framework on Safe Reuse of Treated Water, 2022
Draft Liquid Waste Management Rules 2024, Ministry of Environment, Forest and
Climate Change (MoEFCC), Government of India (MoEFCC, 2024)
G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration, 2023 (Government of India, 2023)
Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation (SATAT) scheme
Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan (GOBARdhan) Initiative under SBM
City Investments to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain 2.0 (CITIIS 2.0) 1 4
RESULTS AND
INSIGHTS FROM
SCENARIO
ANALYSIS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 22
4
Results and
Insights from
Scenario Analysis
India’s waste sector is projected to undergo significant transformation between 2030 and 2070
as demographic expansion, rising material consumption, and industrial growth accelerate the
generation of solid waste, domestic wastewater, and industrial effluents. While each subsector
behaves differently, the overall trend points to a steady increase in waste generation, which in
turn shapes emissions trajectories under both Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario.
4.1 Future Scenario of Waste Sector
Integrated Outlook for Waste Generation (2030 – 2070)
Solid waste generation, domestic wastewater discharge and industrial wastewater volumes
follow distinct growth trajectories but together indicate increasing pressures on India’s waste
systems.
Solid waste generation is projected to increase steadily from 158.9 Mt in 2030 to 333.3 Mt
in 2050 and 476.2 Mt in 2070, reflecting both population growth and evolving patterns of
consumption.
Domestic wastewater generation is also projected to increase from 240,684 Million Litres
per Day (MLD) in 2030 to 265,791
MLD in 2070. The steepest rise is expected before 2050,
in line with demographic growth, while stabilisation post-2050 reflects projected trends in
population and economic development. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
23
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
203020502070
Solid Waste Generation (Million Tonnes)
Figure 4.1: Solid waste generation projections in India (Million Tonnes)
2,25,000
2,30,000
2,35,000
2,40,000
2,45,000
2,50,000
2,55,000
2,60,000
2,65,000
2,70,000
203020502070
Wastewater Generation (in MLD)
Figure 4.2: Domestic wastewater generation projections in India (Million Litres per Day)
Industrial wastewater volumes are projected based on increasing production across eight
major industrial sectors
7
that includes dairy, petroleum, sugar, fish processing, textiles, paper
and pulp, fertilisers, and meat (see figure 4.3). The list of sectors is based on the Fourth
Biennial Update Report (BUR-IV)
and India’s Third National Communication (NATCOM-III)
(MoEFCC, 2024; MoEFCC, 2023). These industries are significant contributors to organic
wastewater and methane emissions. Production across all eight sectors is expected to expand
7 The Iron and Steel, Rubber, and Chlor-Alkali industries were excluded from the estimates because their Methane Correction Factor
(MCF) is considered to be zero in national inventories, including NATCOMs and BURs. A zero MCF indicates that the processes in
these industries operate under fully controlled aerobic conditions and do not produce methane. As a result, methane emissions from
these industries are either zero or negligible and are therefore excluded from the emission estimates. Additionally, the alcohol, plastic
and resins, soap and detergents, starch production, vegetable oils, vegetable, tannery, fruits and juices, and coffee industries have also
not been included in the analysis due to a lack of data and their minimal contribution to total waste emissions. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
24
steadily, leading to commensurate increases in effluent volumes. Annexure II – Part C provides
a summary of the data sources, methodological approach, and assumptions used for industrial
production projections. See the projected industrial production across these sectors below.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
203020502070
Industrial Production (in Million Tonnes)
TextilePaper and Pulp Fertiliser
SugarPetroleumDairy
MeatFish Processing Total
Figure 4.3: Industrial production projections in India
This upward trend in industrial activity is expected to lead to an increase in industrial wastewater
volumes and the associated GHG emissions. As shown in Figure 4.4, Industrial wastewater
generation is projected to reach 68,685 MLD by 2070 (more than 3.7 times the 2020 level),
highlighting the need for effective treatment systems and emissions mitigation strategies.
–
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
203020502070
Waste Water Generation (in MLD)
Figure 4.4: Industrial wastewater generation projections in India Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
25
4.2 Emissions Trajectory and Modelling Framework
The emissions modelling evaluates how solid waste, domestic wastewater, and industrial
wastewater contribute to overall GHG emissions under both Current Policy Scenario and Net
Zero Scenario. The modelling is based on a consistent methodological framework using the
IPCC 2006 Guidelines (Volume 5: Waste) and Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 approaches, depending
on data availability. Emissions are estimated for CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O. Factors influencing
emissions include waste quantities, treatment pathways, technology performance, methane
correction factors, methane recovery and population and economic activity trends.
Common assumptions applied across both scenarios, include the use of 2020 as the baseline
year, projection years of 2030, 2050 and 2070, and activity data based on national datasets,
BUR-IV, NATCOM-III, NEERI, CPCB and other official sources listed in Annexure II.
The detailed parameters for each subsector that feed directly into the modelling are presented
below (See Table 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3).
Table 4.1: Targets for municipal solid waste
20502070
Population (Billion)1.61.62
Current Policy Scenario Net Zero Scenario
Strategies2050 2070 2050 2070
Per Capita Waste Generation (kg/
Capita/Day)
0.775 1.004 0.622 0.622
Waste Disposal (%)15 15 15 15
Waste Processing (%)85 85 85 85
Target Setting for Solid Waste Processing (% of waste processed)
Composting (%)40 40 20 10
Bio-methanation
8
(%)*5 5 15 17
Bio-CNG (%)2 2 12 20
Waste Incineration/RDF (%) 15 15 15 15
MRF (Recycling) (%)23 23 23 23
8 In CPS, about 40% of waste is directed to composting in 2070. In contrast, under the NZS, composting is reduced to 10% due to its
relatively higher processing emissions, while the share of Bio-CNG and biomethanation increases from 2% and 5% in CPS to 20%
and 17% in NZS respectively, promoting cleaner and more energy-efficient waste processing pathways. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
26
Table 4.2: Targets for domestic wastewater
Strategies
Current Policy Scenario Net Zero Scenario
2030 2050 2070 2030 2050 2070
Degree of
utilisation
(%)
Sewer Network 46 59 65 48 65 85
Septic Tank 46 40 35 50 35 15
Treatment
Technology
(%)
Aerobic 64 64 64 64 42 26
Anaerobic 36 36 36 36 58 74
Treatment
Coverage
(%)
Performance
Improvement
of Aerobic
Wastewater
Treatment Plants/
DeWATs
0 0 0 30 100 100
Methane
Recovery from
Anaerobic
Wastewater
Treatment Plants/
DeWATs
10 10 10 30 100 100
Faecal Sludge
Treatment Plant
0 0 0 30 100 100
Biochemical Oxygen Demand
(BOD) (gram/person/day)
41 41 41 41 41 41
Average Annual Per Capita
Protein Consumption (kg/per
person/year)
24.09 28.24 28.24 24.09 28.24 28.24
Table 4.3: Targets for industrial wastewater
Industries
Current Policy Scenario Net Zero Scenario
2030 2050 2070 2030 2050 2070
Methane
Correction
Factor (MCF)
Textiles 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Paper and Pulp 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Fertiliser 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0 0
Sugar 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Petroleum 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0 0
Dairy
9
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8
Meat0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Fish Processing0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0 0
9 In the CPS scenario, a 0.5 MCF indicates that wastewater treatment in the dairy industry relies on a combination of technologies
(Aerobic and Anaerobic) that are often overloaded and not well managed. In the Net Zero scenario, a higher 0.8 MCF is proposed,
reflecting the adoption of anaerobic treatment and methane recovery technologies. This improvement will enhance treatment efficiency,
reduce methane emissions, and enable the recovery of biogas for energy use, contributing to both environmental sustainability and
long-term operational cost savings in dairy industry. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
27
Industries
Current Policy Scenario Net Zero Scenario
2030 2050 2070 2030 2050 2070
Methane
Recovery
(%)
10
Textiles 70 70 70 90 100 100
Paper and Pulp 70 70 70 90 100 100
Fertiliser 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sugar70 70 70 90 100 100
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dairy70 70 70 90 100 100
Meat70 70 70 90 100 100
Fish Processing 0 0 0 0 0 0
While the common assumptions ensure methodological consistency, Current Policy Scenario
and Net Zero Scenario differ in the extent and pace of technology deployment, treatment
expansion and methane recovery. Under Current Policy Scenario, technological and treatment
improvements occur gradually, reflecting current policy commitments and incremental changes.
Methane recovery in domestic wastewater is limited at 10% and industry-specific recovery
values remain constant across projection years; composting continues to form a substantial
portion of solid waste processing and bio-methanation/bio-CNG scale more slowly.
The Net Zero Scenario is developed considering the goals, targets, and strategies defined in
Table 4.4 across the three subsectors to achieve deep emissions reductions by 2070. These
include stabilising per-capita waste generation, improving segregation, expanding treatment
infrastructure, enhancing performance of Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs), adopting methane
recovery technologies and transitioning industrial wastewater treatment systems.
Under Net Zero Scenario, more ambitious measures are adopted. These include universal
methane recovery from anaerobic systems in domestic wastewater by 2050 and in industrial
wastewater by 2040, a higher uptake of bio-CNG and bio-methanation, improved performance
of aerobic sewage treatment plants, large-scale faecal sludge treatment and a stabilisation of
per-capita waste generation by 2040. The Net Zero Scenario reflects a shift towards circularity
and energy recovery across all subsectors.
10 Methane Recovery (%) is excluded for the Fertiliser, Petroleum, and Fish processing industries due to a lack of data. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
28
Table 4.4: Sub-sectoral goals, targets, and strategies for the waste sector under the Net Zero Scenario
S. No.Sub-sectorResilience Goals TargetsStrategies
1
Solid Waste
Management
Transition
towards a circular
economy in the
country
Limit per capita waste
generation to 0.622
(kg/capita/day) post
2040
11
100% collection
efficiency and source
segregation by 2070
85% waste processing
by 2070
12
Strategy 1: Waste
Reduction and Source
Segregation
Strategy 2:
Strengthening the
Primary and Secondary
Collection and
Transportation System
Strategy 3: Processing
and Resource Recovery
Strategy 4: Scientific
Disposal of Waste in
Sanitary Landfills and
Bioremediation
2
Domestic
Wastewater
Promote integrated
wastewater
management
systems that
enhance treatment
efficiency,
methane recovery,
and energy
generation for a
circular economy
85% augmentation of
sewerage network by
2070
100% treatment of
collected wastewater
post 2040
74% of STPs/DeWATs
will utilise anaerobic
treatment systems by
2070
Strategy 1: Universal
access to scientific and
economical toilets
Strategy 2:
Strengthening safe
collection and transport
of wastewater to suitable
treatment facilities
11 Refer Annexure II– Part A for more details.
12 In Net Zero Scenario same targets are considered as in the Current Policy Scenario. The key difference is that in the Current Policy
Scenario, wet waste processing is primarily focused on composting, whereas in the Net Zero Scenario, the emphasis shifts to cleaner
solutions such as biomethanation and Bio-CNG, which not only manage waste more sustainably but also generate cleaner energy in
the form of electricity and Bio-CNG. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
29
S. No.Sub-sectorResilience Goals TargetsStrategies
100% performance
improvement of
aerobic wastewater
treatment plants,
methane recovery from
anaerobic wastewater
treatment plants/
DeWATs, and faecal
sludge treatment by
2050
Strategy 3: Maximise
treatment and reuse
of treated wastewater
and faecal sludge by
adopting efficient and
scientific treatment
technology with a
suitable methane capture
mechanism and use
of alternative energy
sources wherever
feasible
Strategy 4: Enhance
reuse, treatment,
and safe disposal of
wastewater. Reuse to
be preferred wherever
possible
Strategy 5: Public
Awareness
3
Industrial
Wastewater
Promote low-
carbon industrial
wastewater
management
through enhanced
methane recovery
and efficient
treatment systems
100% methane
recovery from
industrial wastewater
treatment by 2040
100% performance
improvement of
aerobic type industrial
wastewater treatment
plants by 2035
Strategy 1: Implement
Well-Managed Aerobic
Systems (≈0 MCF) for
Industrial Wastewater
Strategy 2: Enhance
Methane Recovery from
Industrial Wastewater
India can undertake climate actions based on these scenarios, to eventually embark on the Net
Zero Pathway (see Figure 4.5).
Under the Current Policy Scenario, waste sector emissions are projected to rise steadily to
222.0 MtCO₂e in 2050 and 266.0 MtCO₂e in 2070. This increase reflects the growth in
waste quantities and the limited methane recovery available under prevailing policies and
technologies.
In comparison, under the Net Zero Scenario, waste sector emissions are projected to reach 10.9
MtCO₂e by 2070, a decrease of 95.9% compared to the Current Policy Scenario projections.
Of the total estimated reductions, the industrial wastewater sub-sector is projected to contribute
the most, with a share of 49.4% (126.1 MtCO
2
e), followed by domestic wastewater at 36.8%
(93.9 MtCO
2
e), and solid waste management at 13.8% (35.2 MtCO
2
e). A detailed analysis of
emissions reductions by sector is presented in Table 4.5 below. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
30
Emissions (MtCO
2
e)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
CPS NZS CPS NZS
202020502070
Waste Sector GHG Emissions (MtCO
2
e)
Solid Waste Domestic Wastewater Industrial Wastewater
Figure 4.5: GHG emissions from waste sector in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) vs the
Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Emissions of 2020 are taken from BUR4 (based on IPCC Second Assessment Report (AR2)) and for projections
emissions factors are based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
Table 4.5: GHG emissions reduction by waste sector under Net Zero ScenarioSub-sector2050 2070
Emissions (MtCO
2
e) in Current Policy Scenario
Solid Waste Management35.1 44.6
Domestic Wastewater 83.0 95.4
Industrial Wastewater103.9 126.1
Total222.0 266.0
Emissions (MtCO
2
e) in Net Zero Scenario
Solid Waste Management (A) 16.7 9.5
Solid Waste Disposal 13.3 11.3
Biological treatment of solid waste (Composting/
Biomethanation/Bio-CNG)
7.8 3.5
Incineration/Waste-to-Energy(4.4) (5.3)
Domestic Wastewater (B)27.9 1.4
Industrial Wastewater (C)0.0 0.0
Total Remaining Emissions (A+B+C)44.6 10.9
Emissions Reduction in Net Zero Scenario compared to Current Policy Scenario (%)
Solid Waste Management52.4% 78.8%
Domestic Wastewater66.4% 98.5%
Industrial Wastewater100% 100%
Total79.9% 95.9%
Note: ( ) denotes negative value. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
31
To move towards a Net Zero future, India will need to focus on continuously revising its
Net Zero strategies to address residual/remaining emissions from the waste sector. Residual
emissions are estimated to remain at 4.1% (10.9 MtCO₂e) under the Net Zero Scenario by
2070, compared to the Current Policy Scenario levels. Achieving a 100% reduction in waste
sector GHG emissions would require India to adopt emerging technologies and develop
additional mitigation strategies to close this gap by 2070.
It is crucial to acknowledge that the level of effort outlined in the Net Zero Scenario
requires adaptation measures, substantial policy support, enabling frameworks, overcoming
implementation barriers, capacity building, and financial support from city, state, and national
governments, and the international community.
A key pillar of this transition is to identify and mobilise substantial financial resources.
Implementing Net Zero strategies and adopting low-carbon development in the waste sector
will require a clear roadmap for investment and funding. The total cost of achieving Net Zero
emissions in this sector is expected to include significant capital for infrastructure development,
operational improvements, and scaling up advanced technologies, such as waste-to-energy
(bio-methanation), waste to bio-CNG plants, MRFs and composting technologies. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
33
5
CHALLENGES Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 34
The waste sector in India faces numerous challenges, particularly in managing waste streams
and associated policy frameworks and data. These challenges differ significantly, reflecting
disparities in infrastructure, awareness, and resource availability.
I. High Solid Waste Volumes
India continues to face growing pressure from the increasing volume and complexity of solid
waste generated. Rapid urbanisation and population growth have intensified waste generation,
while the availability of land for sanitary landfill development has steadily decreased. Existing
landfills are heavily overburdened, and constrained by high land costs and competing land-use
demands. As cities expand further, the challenge of safely managing rising waste volumes
is becoming increasingly complex, straining municipal systems and elevating environmental
risks.
II. Limited Solid Waste Segregation
Limited segregation at source remains one of the most significant barriers to effective waste
management. This hampers downstream processing, contaminates recyclable fractions, lowers
material recovery rates, and reduces the overall value of recyclables. Also, the adoption of
low-carbon technologies for waste processing usually requires pure-source feedstocks; this is
especially critical for processing organic waste.
III. Challenges in Solid Waste Collection, Transportation, and Handling
Infrastructure gaps hinder the implementation of comprehensive solid waste management
systems. Many cities still lack efficient and reliable systems for waste collection, handling,
and transportation. Collection coverage remains uneven in many areas, especially in dense
informal settlements, peri-urban fringes, and hilly terrain. Additionally, many cities lack well-
designed transfer stations, so waste is often transported through temporary or open dumping
sites. Manual handling remains high, increasing occupational risks and decreasing efficiency.
In terms of transportation, vehicles used for both collection and transportation are often poorly
maintained, leading to breakdowns, leachate leaks, and higher operating costs. The lack of
5
Challenges Challenges Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
35
dedicated vehicles for segregated streams leads to recombination of waste during collection. At
the same time, the lack of route optimisation and tracking causes inefficient crew deployment,
increased fuel consumption, and avoidable GHG emissions.
IV. Low Processing and Scientific Disposal of Solid Waste
With only about 39% of waste being scientifically processed, most urban areas rely on open
dumping or underperforming treatment facilities. These gaps in treatment capacity have led
to higher GHG emissions from the solid waste sub-sector. Although the informal sector plays
a vital role in recycling, its contributions remain largely unrecognised and poorly integrated
into formal systems.
V. Unmanaged Plastic Waste
Plastic waste adds another layer of complexity, with improper disposal contributing to river
and marine pollution, and the dispersal of microplastics adversely affects human and ecological
health. Public awareness and behavioural adoption of segregation and recycling remain limited,
further constraining progress towards a circular economy.
VI. Rural Waste Management Challenges
Rural areas face structural limitations in waste management due to the absence of basic
infrastructure. Most rural areas are yet to develop systems for organised waste collection,
source segregation, and transportation to disposal sites, resulting in unregulated dumping.
Financial constraints, low technical capacity, and limited awareness of sustainable waste
practices further hinder responsible management.
VII. Inadequate Wastewater Collection and Conveyance
Limited and ageing sewer networks make wastewater management challenging. Centralised sewer
systems remain expensive to build and maintain. Informal settlements, expanding due to unplanned
urbanisation, often lack sewer connections or septic tanks. As a result, untreated wastewater
frequently gets dumped into drains, rivers, and groundwater. In rural areas, the absence of drainage
and conveyance systems leads to wastewater stagnation and contamination of local water sources.
VIII. Insufficient Wastewater and Faecal Sludge Treatment Capacity
and Performance
Existing treatment infrastructure has not kept pace with rising wastewater volumes. Many
treatment plants are overburdened, under-performing, or non-functional due to poor design,
inadequate operation, and lack of maintenance. Limited faecal sludge treatment plants and
weak co-treatment mechanisms compound the issue. The shortage of trained personnel for
operating treatment systems further undermines performance.
IX. Behavioural and Social Barriers in Wastewater Management
Social, cultural, and behavioural barriers often hinder the adoption of improved sanitation and
wastewater systems. In regions facing water scarcity, pour-flush toilets become impractical, reducing Challenges Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
36
the feasibility of safe containment systems. Cultural barriers and social stigma around waste
handling reduce community uptake of sustainable domestic wastewater management solutions.
X. Industrial Wastewater Standards and Pollutants
Ineffective treatment systems with high Methane Correction Factors (MCFs) lead to increased
methane emissions, hindering industrial wastewater management. In addition, weak monitoring
techniques and gaps in sector-specific BOD/COD regulations often hinder efforts to reduce
eutrophication. The absence of widespread methane recovery mechanisms across industrial
treatment facilities results in missed opportunities for energy capture and reducing overall emissions.
XI. Policy Implementation Gaps
India has made significant progress in developing policies for waste and wastewater
management; however, institutional capacity, funding, and enforcement at the local level are
still being strengthened.
XII. Fragmented Data Systems and Poor Data Quality
A robust data ecosystem is crucial for effective planning; however, the current data remains
scattered across various agencies, including CPCB, MoHUA, NEERI, NITI Aayog, and
various central and state departments, each employing different methodologies and reporting
frameworks. The absence of extensive historical datasets, combined with limited long-term
policy planning, limits guidance for effective long-term planning and analysis.
XIII. Lack of Disaggregated and Region-Specific Data for Domestic
Wastewater
Limited data on indicators such as per capita waste generation, protein intake, disposal methods,
waste infrastructure, and biological treatment techniques remain a major challenge. This gap
reduces the accuracy of treatment estimates. Without region-specific information on waste
composition and treatment practices, national averages are used, which might not accurately
reflect local circumstances.
XIV. Weak Future Projection Models
Current projections of waste generation and treatment capacity rely heavily on extrapolated
trends and static parameters (e.g., fixed BOD values and methane recovery rates). These
models do not adequately incorporate anticipated changes in technology performance, industrial
efficiency, population growth, or climatic conditions.
XV. Financing Constraints in Waste Management
Financing remains a significant barrier to scaling waste management systems across India.
Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) often lack the financial resources to invest in waste infrastructure,
while existing grants are insufficient to meet long-term capital and O&M needs. Access to
climate finance, private investment, and innovative funding mechanisms is limited, slowing
the adoption of modern technologies and circular economy measures. 6
SUGGESTIONS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 38
Suggestions
India’s commitment to Net Zero emissions by 2070 involves eliminating waste sector emissions
through low-carbon waste management systems, cutting-edge technologies, and innovative
policies. Key strategies to enable the waste sector’s contribution to Net Zero are listed below:
A. Solid Waste Management
1. Waste Reduction and Source Segregation
i. Achieve the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) 2.0 target of 100% source segregation
through community engagement using social media campaigns, workshops, and local
outreach activities.
ii. Limit per capita waste generation to 0.622 kg/capita/day post 2040, in line with
developed nation standards and United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)
circular economy benchmarks.
iii. Reduce waste at source by operationalising Extented Producer Responsibility (EPR),
tax incentives, eco-labelling, and development of eco-industrial parks focused on
recycling industries (CPHEEO, 2016).
2. Strengthening Primary and Secondary Collection and Transportation
i. Improve collection efficiency to 100% door-to-door waste collection, supported by
waste quantification surveys to identify leakages in line with SBM 2.0 guidelines.
ii. Strengthen primary collection by identifying the required workforce and vehicle
capacities and deploying compartmentalised vehicles for segregated waste streams
iii. Integrate technologies such as GPS-based route optimisation, digital tracking to
monitor bin filling, and RFID-enabled vehicles to enhance operational efficiency.
iv. Enhance secondary waste collection by upgrading transfer stations or storage depots,
especially where treatment and disposal sites are more than 15 miles from the city.
6 Suggestions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
39
v. Design transfer stations to minimise waste handling and, in cities with low segregation
levels, incorporate pre-sorting lines or decentralised Material Recovery Facility
(MRF) within these facilities.
vi. Strengthen plastic waste management by improving the collection of low-value
plastics, expanding recycling facilities, and preventing leakages through monitoring.
3. Processing and Resource Recovery
i. Align processing technology choices with region specific waste composition and
ensure adherence to standard norms to maintain efficiency, sustainability, and
scalability.
ii. Increasing biodegradable waste processing capacity by adopting bio-methanation and
composting, and prioritising bio-methanation in cities with high source segregation;
use feasibility assessments to determine centralised or decentralised approach for the
system. Support future Waste-to-Energy (WtE) initiatives, such as waste-to-green
hydrogen.
iii. Enhance waste processing to achieve 85% treatment of Muncipal Solid Waste (MSW)
using a combination of technologies, including Bio-CNG (20%), bio-methanation
(17%), composting (10%) for organic waste, WtE (15%) for non-recyclable dry and
mixed waste, and Material Recovery Facility (MRF) for recyclables. Ensure only
inert and process rejects fractions are sent to sanitary landfills.
iv. Integrate informal waste sector workers into formal Solid Waste Management (SWM)
systems through dedicated policies, capacity building initiatives, and partnerships at
MRFs and recycling facilities
v. Establish dedicated waste management zones in master plans to streamline waste
collection and processing operations and prevent ad-hoc or unplanned dumping.
4. Scientific Disposal and Bio-remediation
i. Develop sanitary landfill sites for the safe disposal of rejects from processing facilities
and inert waste. In rural areas, adopt a cluster-based approach to enable multiple
villages to share a single sanitary landfill.
ii. Equip sanitary landfills with Landfill Gas (LFG) capture systems to reduce emissions
from organic rejects and improve environmental performance.
iii. Ensure remediation of legacy waste in accordance with SBM 2.0 guidelines, for
cities with populations under one million.
iv. Ensure SWM facilities are resilient to climate risks such as floods, heat waves,
and extreme rainfall, which often affect operations. Suggestions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
40
B. Domestic Wastewater
1. Universal access to scientific and economical toilets
i. Align treatment and discharge pathways based on local geography, recognising that
India’s diverse landscapes require customised systems.
ii. Address operational challenges observed in many constructed toilets under SBM,
by improving septic tank cleaning services, ensuring adequate water availability for
regular use, and supporting households in undertaking repair and maintenance.
iii. Implement a two-pronged approach to achieve universal access and sustained
functionality:
Construction: identify households without individual toilets and support the
construction of scientifically designed, location-appropriate toilets, particularly
in areas where households rely on community toilets.
Retrofitting: upgrade unscientific systems by addressing design issues such as
septic tanks without soak pits, improperly spaced twin pits, missing Y-junctions,
faulty pipes or chambers, and direct discharge into open drains. Connect
households to sewer networks where feasible to ensure safe containment and
reduce pollution risks.
2. Safe collection and transfer to treatment facilities
i. Achieve 85% sewer network coverage by expanding centralised sewer systems
wherever technically feasible, while recognising that India’s diverse geography,
such as hilly terrain, sandy coastal soils, and low-density settlements, renders sewer
construction difficult or impractical in some areas.
ii. Adopt suitable alternatives where centralised systems are not viable, such as
well-designed on-site sanitation systems with scheduled desludging services or
decentralised sewerage systems for small habitations.
iii. Implement interception and diversion (I&D) systems in locations where
wastewater discharges into open drains, redirecting them to suitable treatment
facilities.
iv. Ensure that States and Local Bodies plan sewer expansion, on-site system upgrades,
and decentralised networks in a phased manner, aligning with local needs,
topographical constraints, and wastewater generation trends. Suggestions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
41
3. Maximising treatment and faecal sludge treatment with methane
recovery
i. Achieve 100% treatment of collected wastewater by 2050 while strengthening the
operation and maintenance of existing and upcoming aerobic Sewage Treatment
Plants (STPs) to ensure they function efficiently, maintain adequate treatment
volumes.
ii. Prioritise the adoption of anaerobic treatment systems with integrated methane
recovery infrastructure while expanding Sewage Treatment Plants (STP)/ Decentralised
Wastewater and Treatment System (DeWATs) capacity, to enable methane utilisation
for energy generation and support long-term emission reduction objectives. Ensure
that approximately 74% of sewage treatment capacity is anaerobic, with 100%
methane recovery by 2070.
iii. Target the remaining 26% of collected wastewater for treatment through aerobic
systems, ensuring efficient operations to achieve zero emissions during treatment.
iv. Prioritise faecal sludge management and treatment in areas dependent on on-site
sanitation systems, by establishing faecal sludge treatment plants (FSTPs) and
expanding co-treatment arrangements at nearby STPs. States should identify suitable
locations for establishing FSTPs and co-treatment facilities to ensure 100% faecal
sludge treatment by 2070.
4. Enhancing circularity through reuse and recycling
i. Promote reuse of treated wastewater for tertiary purposes like agriculture, construction,
and horticulture to decrease freshwater demand and promote water conservation,
especially in water-stressed regions across India.
ii. Address rural wastewater challenges by constructing covered drainage systems to
reduce disposal into low-lying areas and improve sanitation outcomes.
C. Industrial Wastewater
1. Implement well-managed aerobic systems (≈0 MCF)
i. Promote well-managed aerobic treatment systems to achieve a near-zero Methane
Correction Factor (≈0 MCF) by preventing the formation of anaerobic conditions in
industries using aerobic treatment technologies, such as fertilisers, petroleum, and
fish processing. Suggestions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
42
2. Enhance methane recovery from industrial wastewater
i. Achieve 100% methane recovery by 2040 from industries using anaerobic treatment
technologies to support emission reduction and meet energy needs sustainably.
ii. Upgrade existing wastewater treatment infrastructure and adopt advanced methane
recovery systems to improve overall performance.
iii. Support industries in reducing GHG emissions by maximising the recovery and
reuse of treatment by-products, such as utilising biogas produced from anaerobic
digestion, reusing treated wastewater, and reclaiming usable materials from the
treatment process.
D. Policy Framework
1. Strengthening Technical Expertise and Capacity Building
i. Strengthen technical capabilities of government officials and sector stakeholders to
fast-track waste management strategies, supported by training programmes.
ii. Ensure that training programmes cover data collection protocols, digital reporting
tools, waste categorisation techniques, and Quality Assurance/ Quality Control (QA/
QC) processes that strengthen the accuracy of reported values.
iii. Ensure long-term capacity-building investments to enable the adoption of innovative
approaches and improve overall institutional readiness.
2. Advancing Climate-based Participatory Budgeting and Sustainable
Procurement
i. Introduce climate-based participatory budgeting to enable communities to engage
directly in sustainable waste management projects.
ii. Promote sustainable procurement practices across public sector projects.
iii. Strengthen public ownership of projects through the involvement of local communities
in decision-making processes.
3. Enabling Private Sector Involvement
i. Encourage private investment in waste processing and recycling technologies,
sustainable packaging, and circular economy models.
ii. Scale up initiatives such as the SATAT scheme and GOBARdhan through increased
private sector participation.
iii. Promote eco-friendly products and sustainable business practices to strengthen
sustainable procurement and support the transition to a greener economy. Suggestions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
43
4. Strengthening Public Awareness and Engagement
i. Ensure active public participation through social media campaigns, government
platforms such as MyGov.in workshops, and educational programmes.
ii. Incorporate Mission LiFE into behavioural change initiatives to promote sustainable
practices such as waste segregation, mindful consumption, and eco-friendly behaviour.
5. Establishing a Robust Monitoring and Evaluation Framework
i. Establish a clear framework for monitoring and evaluating mitigation efforts for the
waste sector.
ii. Ensure application of effective monitoring methodologies that track expenditures
and measure climate and infrastructure service outcomes.
iii. Strengthen inter-agency and inter-departmental coordination to align waste-related
regulations, targets, and reporting requirements.
E. Strengthen Data Ecosystem
i. Establish a unified national waste data framework that integrates datasets from
CPCB, MoHUA, NITI Aayog, NEERI, and State Pollution Control Boards, using
standardised methodologies, timelines, and reporting formats, supported by a
centralised digital platform for real-time data collection. Integrate data transparency
and public disclosure mechanisms to enhance accountability and enable third-party
validation.
ii. Deploy remote sensing, IoT-based sensors, and automated monitoring systems for
continuous measurement of waste quantities, landfill emissions, leachate generation,
Sewage Treatment Plants (STP)/ Decentralised Wastewater and Treatment System
(DeWATs) performance, and industrial effluent trends.
iii. Mandate the tracking and reporting of disaggregated datasets on key indicators such
as per capita waste/wastewater generation, disposal methods, wastewater discharge
pathways and processing, etc., to improve planning accuracy.
iv. Conduct periodic region-specific waste and wastewater characterisation analysis to
enable understanding of local conditions and improve technology selection and planning.
v. Improve industrial waste data reporting by mandating annual, industry-specific
reports on wastewater generation, treatment technologies, Biological Oxygen
Demand (BOD) & Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) loads, etc.
vi. Promote collaboration between research institutions, civil society organisations,
and government agencies to co-develop analytical models and improve long-term
projection models and strategic planning. ANNEXURES Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 46
Annexure I: Quality
Control and Quality
Assurance for Emission
Estimation
Part A: Sectoral Quality Control (QC) and Quality Assurance (QA)
Internal quality control (QC) procedures applied to the emission estimates include generic
quality checks in terms of the calculations, processing, consistency, and clear recording and
documentation as follows:
Activity Data Selection: National-level datasets have been used to ensure relevance
across time and geography with consistent time-series data across all sub-sectors.
Calculation Verification: Spreadsheets have been reviewed to confirm the correct
application of formulas, activity data, and emission factors, ensuring error-free
computations.
Unit and Measurement Consistency: Parameters and emissions have been
cross-checked for accurate recording, proper and consistent unit conversions and
measurement throughout the reporting period.
Trend Analysis: Emission estimates have been analysed for consistency in national-
level trends over the assessment period. Major deviations were identified and
addressed when not attributable to changes in activity data or emission factors.
Transparent Documentation: All equations, input data, intermediate formulae, and
outputs have been clearly documented within spreadsheets for each sub-category.
Citation Compliance: All references to activity data and emission factors have been
cited in line with citation policies to ensure full traceability.
Data Gap Reporting: Included and excluded categories, along with the rationale
for assumptions used to address data gaps, have been transparently reported
(Annexure II). Annexure I: Quality Control and Quality Assurance for Emission Estimation Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
47
Part B: Specific QC/QA Procedures for Key Waste Sector Categories
A. Solid Waste Disposal
The First Order Decay (FOD) model has been utilised to estimate emissions,
incorporating historical solid waste disposal data from 1955 onward.
Historical data gaps in waste generation and composition have been addressed by
interpolating national datasets, ensuring alignment with the 2006 IPCC guidelines.
Per capita waste generation rates have been projected using growth trends from
datasets such as the India Energy Security Scenario (IESS), the Municipal Solid
Waste Management Manual 2016, and NEERI studies.
The national per capita MSW generation rate used in the estimates has been validated
against the IPCC default value of 0.12 tonnes/capita/year, confirming they fall within
the uncertainty range. Future MSW generation projections rely on average national
growth in per capita waste generation.
Improvements in waste management technologies, such as increased biological
treatment and material recovery, are expected to significantly reduce the volume of
waste sent to disposal sites/landfills by 2070.
B. Biological Treatment of Waste
Biological treatment methods such as composting and anaerobic digestion (bio-methanation),
have been assessed at the national level for municipal solid waste. Key considerations include:
National-level estimates of biologically treated waste, with data gaps addressed
through interpolation for missing years.
Incremental increases have been assumed in composting and bio-methanation
capacity, based on historical growth trends, technological advancements, and ongoing
government initiatives and policies.
The lack of disaggregated data on waste fractions and treatment efficiency,
particularly at regional levels, has contributed to variability in estimates. Uniform
waste composition data and treatment efficiencies have been applied across the
projection period.
C. Domestic Wastewater Treatment and Discharge
Population projections from NITI Aayog have been used to estimate wastewater
generation. Annexure I: Quality Control and Quality Assurance for Emission Estimation Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
48
The degree of utilisation for treatment systems, such as sewers, septic tanks, and
latrines, has been derived from historical datasets and projected incrementally to
2070.
Per capita BOD values have been assumed constant over the projection period, based
on BUR, NATCOM-III and IPCC guidelines.
It is assumed that all wastewater collected via sewer systems will be treated,
eliminating untreated discharges. It is also assumed that improvements in treatment
infrastructure will reduce emissions over time.
Wastewater treatment capacity is projected to increase in line with the current policies
and targets, with systems designed to prevent untreated discharge.
D. Industrial Wastewater Treatment and Discharge
Emission estimates for industrial wastewater have been based on a tier-1 approach,
covering eight industrial sectors using national averages for production and
wastewater generation.
Default values for treatment system efficiencies and methane recovery rates have
been sourced from NATCOM-III and BUR-III & IV and NEERI studies’ national
datasets.
Methane recovery is assumed to improve over time, particularly in energy-intensive
industries, contributing to lower overall emissions. However, it is assumed to remain
constant under the Current Policy Scenario estimates.
Limited availability of production and wastewater treatment data has introduced
variability. Static assumptions for wastewater generation per unit product and
treatment efficiencies may not fully reflect on-ground changes in industrial processes
over time. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 49
Annexure II:
Data Sources and
Assumptions
Part A: Data Sources and Assumptions for Solid Waste Management
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Activity Data
Population (P) As reported for the census years 1991,
2001 and 2011.
Population projections for selected
years between 2020 and 2070 have
been sourced from NITI’s dataset.
For the remaining years, population
estimates have been derived based on
decadal growth trends in the shared
dataset..
Census of India
NITI Aayog, Government of India
Mass of Waste
deposited (W)
a. Per Capita Waste Generation:
Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
generation for the period 2030 to
2070 has been estimated based on
population projections and the per
capita waste generation rates sourced
from IESS, the open-source tool
developed by NITI Aayog.
For intermediate years per capita
waste generation has been calculated
based on the 1.3% annual growth
rate specified in the SBM’s MSW
Management Manual 2016.
The Net Zero Scenario assumes per
capita waste generation at 0.622 kg/
capita/day post 2040, aligning with
developed nation standards and global
per capita waste generation under
circular economy scenario, reported
by the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP, 2024).
India Energy Security Scenario
(IESS, NITI Aayog)
Municipal Solid Waste Management
Manual (2016), Part II, Swachh
Bharat Mission, Ministry of Urban
Development, Government of India
(CPHEEO, 2016) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
50
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
b. Proportion of waste to disposal site
and waste processing:
Data on waste sent to landfills and for
waste processing (biological treatment
and waste incineration waste) is
available for the years 2005, 2020,
2021 and 2022.
For landfill projections, the annual
average growth (2014 to 2021)
was later applied to project landfill
volumes until 2070 under the Current
Policy Scenario.
Based on historical trends, current
policy parameters and benchmarks in
developed nations, it is projected that
by 2070, 15% of the waste generated
will be sent to landfills. Technological
advancements are expected to
significantly reduce waste rejects,
leading to efficient treatment of the
remaining 85%.
Projections for processing methods
like composting, bio-methanation,
incineration, and MRF were based on
their 2020 baseline shares.
Annual projections incorporate
incremental improvements in
technologies like bio-methanation,
composting, waste incineration/RDF,
and MRF.
NEERI
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2000, CPCB, 2014-15 (CPCB,
2015)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2015-16 (CPCB,
2015)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2016-17 (CPCB,
2017)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2017-18 (CPCB,
2018)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2018-19 (CPCB,
2019)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2019-20 (CPCB,
2020)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2020-21 (CPCB,
2021) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
51
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Emission Factors
Degradable
Organic
Carbon
(DOC)
DOC values for the organic fraction
of waste has been calculated using
IPCC default values for degradable
components (paper, rags, compostable
matter) along with reported waste
composition data across different time
periods.
Waste composition data for the years
1971, 1995, 2005 and 2020 is assumed
to be applicable for the periods of
1954-1994, 1995-2004, 2005-2018,
2019-2070 respectively.
Default DOC content values as per 2006
IPCC Guidelines:
Component
Default DOC Content
values (Wet waste)
Paper 40%
Rags 24%
Compostable
Matter
15%
Source: IPCC 2006
Default DOC content:
2006 IPCC Guidelines for National
GHG Inventories, Vol. 5, Chapter
2: Waste Generation, Composition
and Management Data, Table
2.5 (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [IPCC], 2006)
Waste composition from 1971 to
2020:
Integrated Modelling of Solid
Waste in India (1999), CREED
Working Paper Series no 26 and
CPCB, 1999
CPCB and NEERI (2005), Table 2,
pg. 3 (CPCB, 2005)
CPHEEO Manual on Municipal
Solid Waste Management-2016,
Table 1.6 (CPHEEO, 2016)
Toolkit Preparing City Solid
Waste Action Plan under SBM 2.0
Managing Biodegradable Waste,
2022 Centre for Science and
Environment (CSE, 2022)
Decomposable
Fraction of
DOC (DOC
f
)
0.5
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Equation 3.7
(IPCC, 2006)
Methane
Correction
Factor (MCF)
MCF for unmanaged shallow landfill
with depth less than five metrer (0.4)
has been used in the Current Policy
Scenario estimates
Under Net Zero Scenario MCF of
managed landfill (1.0) has been used
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Table 3.1
(IPCC, 2006)
Fraction
of CH
4
in
generated
landfill gas
(F)
0.5
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Page 3.15
(IPCC, 2006)
Oxidation
factor (OX)0
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Table 3.2
(IPCC, 2006) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
52
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Methane
Recovery (R)0
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Section 3.2.3
(IPCC, 2006)
Reaction
Constant (k)0.84
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Table 3.3
(IPCC, 2006)
IPCC default
Emission
Factors for
CH
4
and N
2
O
emissions
from
biological
treatment of
waste
Type of
Treatment
CH
4
Emission
Factors
(kg CH
4
/
tonne waste
treated)
N
2
O
Emission
Factors
(kg N
2
O/
tonne waste
treated)
Dry weight
basis
Wet weight
basis
Dry weight
basis
Wet weight
basis
Compost-
ing
10 4 0.60.24
Anaerobic
digestion
at biogas
facilities
(bio-meth-
anation)
2 0.8Negligible
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
4: Biological Treatment of Waste,
Table 4.1 (IPCC, 2006)
Part B: Data Sources and Assumptions for Domestic Wastewater
Treatment and Discharge
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Activity data
Population (P)
As reported for the census years
1991, 2001 and 2011.
Population projections for select
years between 2020 and 2070
has been sourced from NITI
Aayog. Year-wise estimates for the
remaining years has been derived
from decadal growth trends from
the dataset.
Census of India
NITI Aayog, Government of India Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
53
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Per capita BOD in
inventory year (g/
person/day)
Per capita BOD value (i.e. 41 g/
person/day) is assumed to be
constant from 2030 to 2070.
India Third National
Communication (NATCOM-
III) and Initial Adaptation
Communication, MoEFCC, GoI,
2023 (MoEFCC, 2023)
Degree of
utilisation of
treatment/
discharge pathway
or system, j, for
each income group
fraction i (Ti, j)
a. Degree of Utilisation:
Treatment and discharge pathways
are classified under the 2006 IPCC
Guidelines as septic tank, sewer,
latrine, others, and None (IPCC,
2006)
The degree of utilisation of
treatment/discharge pathway or
system is based on the latrine
facility dataset sourced from the
Census of India (2001 and 2011),
National Sample Survey (76
th
and
79
th
) Round (2018 and 2022-23),
and National Family Health Survey
(NFHS) (2005-06, 2014-15 and
2019-21)
Projections until 2070 were made
using an annual average increase
methodology based on historical
trends from 2001 to 2022. By
calculating the average annual
increase required to achieve the
target sewer network coverage, the
share was incrementally adjusted
each year.
b. Sewage Treatment Plants (STP)
Status:
STP capacity data is available for
the years 2008-09, 2014-15, and
2020.
The degree of utilisation of
treatment systems is estimated for
2005 to 2010, 2016 to 2018, 2021,
and 2022.
Methane emissions from domestic
wastewater treatment are estimated
at 10%, based on NEERI data sets,
and are assumed to remain constant
under the Current Policy Scenario
through 2070.
Latrine Facility Datasets:
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment
and Discharge, table 6.5 (IPCC,
2006)
Census of India – Availability
and type of latrine facility: 2001
– 2011
Drinking Water, Sanitation,
Hygiene, and Housing Condition,
NSS 76th Round (2018), Page 33
(MoSPI, 2018)
Comprehensive Annual Modular
Survey, NSS 79th Round (2022-
2023) (MoSPI, 2023).
Availability of Toilets at
the Household Level in
India: Evidence from NFHS
(NirmalKumar & Sivasankar,
2024)
Status of Sewage Treatment Plant
(STP) data
2008-09:
CPCB (2008): Evaluation of
Operation and Maintenance of
Sewage Treatment Plants in
India-2007. Information referred
from Table 2.1, Table 2.2 and
Chapter 3 (CPCB, 2008)
CPCB (2009): Status of Water
Supply, Wastewater Generation
and Treatment in Class-I Cities
& Class-II Towns of India.
Information referred from Table
3.4, Table 3.5, Table 3.6, Table
3.11, Table 3.12, Table 3.18,
Table 3.19 (CPCB, 2009) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
54
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
(i) Piped sewer:
Operational STP capacity is
identified from CPCB’s STP
performance evaluation reports.
STPs are categorised as aerobic
and anaerobic based on treatment
technology used.
Installed but non-operational STPs
are considered ‘collected and not
treated’.
Percentages from these three values
are estimated from 2005-2022
and the corresponding percentage
multiplied with ‘piped sewer’ data
to estimate emissions from each
discharge pathway.
(ii) Projection: Sewage Treatment
Plants (STP) Status (2023-2070)
A decremental approach has been
used to project the percentage of
sewers with collected and untreated
waste from 2023 to 2070, aiming
for 0% untreated sewage by 2070.
Historical data from 2008-2009
and 2014-15 has been analysed
to calculate the average annual
reduction in untreated sewage. This
linear decremental rate was applied
year by year, ensuring steady
progress.
The technology split between
aerobic and anaerobic systems, as
in the baseline year, is assumed
to be constant over the projection
period due to historical variability.
CPCB (2010): Annual report
2009-10. Information referred
from Table 6.2, Table 6.3
CPCB (2013): Performance
Evaluation of STPs under NCRD.
Information referred from Table
2, Table 3, Table 4, Table 5, Table
8, Table 14, Annexure – IV
2014-15:
CPCB (2015): Inventorization of
STPs. Information referred from
Table 3 and Chapter 4
CPCB: Monitoring of STPs in
Karnataka 2014-15. Information
referred on STPs throughout the
document
2020:
National Inventory of Sewage
Treatment Plants, March 2021,
CPCB
Fraction of
population in
income group i
(Ui)
The values of the fractions of
population in income groups is
available from 2005 to 2070.
2005-2010:
Population Projections for India
and States 1996-2016 (Registrar
General, India–Ministry of Home
Affairs); Table 10–Page no. 71–Total
Population, Table 16–Page no. 89–
Urban Population Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
55
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
2011-2019:
Population Projections for India &
States 2011-2036 (Table no. 8, 9 and
10), Ministry of Health & Family
Welfare, (Downloaded from Census
of India official website)
2020-2070:
NITI Aayog, Government of India.
Organic
Component
removed as
Sludge, kg BOD/
year (BOD)
0
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment
and Discharge, Equation 6.1 (IPCC,
2006)
Correction factor
for additional
industrial BOD
discharged into
sewers (I)
Based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines,
the default values of “I”, for collected
and uncollected wastewater, have been
used, for assessment.
“I” for Collected
Wastewater
“I” for
Uncollected
Wastewater
1.25
1
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6–Wastewater treatment and
discharge, Equation 6.3 (IPCC, 2006)
Amount of CH
4
recovered in
inventory year (R)
0
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge, equation 6.1 (IPCC, 2006)
Annual per
capita protein
consumption, kg/
person/year
Per capita protein consumption
values are sourced from the NSSO
report on nutritional intake in India,
2011-12.
As updated year-wise values are
unavailable, the 2011-12 figures
have been applied for the baseline
year 2020.
Post 2047, the per capita protein
(28.24 kg/person/year) consumption
is projected to meet the suggested
levels outlined in the Dietary
Guidelines for Indians 2024
(ICMR-National Institution of
Nutrition), assuming India achieves
the required protein intake by that
year. This value is assumed to be
constant until 2070.
2011-12:
Nutritional Intake in India
2011-12. The NSSO survey
was conducted over two rounds
(or schedules). Values used are
average values based on findings
across the two schedules in
the NSSO survey 2011-12 as
indicated in Table 3A & Table 3B
(MoSPI, 2014)
2019-21:
National Family Health Survey
(NFHS-5), 2019-2021 (Ministry
of Health and Family Welfare,
2021) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
56
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
The weighted average of protein
intake value is calculated using the
proportion of vegetarian and non-
vegetarian population as per the
NFHS-5 Report, 2019-2021.
Per capita protein consumption
between 2020 and 2047 has been
estimated using the CAGR.
2024:
Dietary guidelines by Indian
Medical Council Research
(ICMR), 2024
Emission factors
Maximum
CH
4
producing
capacity, kg CH
4
/
kg BOD (Bo)
0.6
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6–Wastewater treatment and
discharge, Table 6.2 (IPCC, 2006)
Methane
correction factor
(MCF
j
)
The following assumptions have
been made:
Untreated wastewater collected via
sewers may remain in ‘stagnant
sewers’ or be ‘discharged into
aquatic environments. As the
quantity discharged to water bodies
is unknown, the entire volume of
untreated wastewater is accounted
for under ‘discharge to aquatic
environments.
Under the Current Policy Scenario,
untreated sewage (collected but
not treated) is projected to reach
0% by 2040 in India. This phased
reduction is expected to eliminate
emissions from untreated sewage.
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater treatment and
discharge, Table 6.3 (IPCC, 2006)
Treatment/ discharge
pathway or system (j)
MCF
j
Anaerobic reactor 0.80
Centralised, aerobic
treatment plant not well
managed, overloaded
0.30
Centralised, aerobic
treatment plant well
managed
0.00
Stagnant Sewer 0.50
Sea, lake, or river discharge0.10
Flowing Sewer (open/
closed)
0.00
Septic system 0.50 Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
57
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Treatment/ discharge
pathway or system (j)
MCF
j
Latrine–Dry climate,
groundwater table lower
than latrine, communal
(many users)
0.50
Latrine (Dry climate,
groundwater table lower
than latrine, small family
(3-5 members))
0.10
Discharge to aquatic
environments
0.11
Fraction of
Nitrogen in
Protein (F
NPR
)
0.16
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge, equation 6.8 and table
6.11 (IPCC, 2006)
Factor for non-
consumed protein
added to the
wastewater (F
NON-
CON
)
1.4
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge, table 6.11 (IPCC, 2006)
Factor for
industrial and
commercial co-
discharged protein
into the sewer
system (F
IND-COM
)
1.25
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge, table 6.11 (IPCC, 2006)
Nitrogen removed
with sludge
(N
SLUDGE
)
0
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge, equation 6.8 (IPCC, 2006) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
58
Part C: Data Sources and Assumptions for Industrial Wastewater
Treatment and Discharge
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Activity Data
Industrial
Production (Pi)
Fertilisers, Textiles, Paper and Pulp, and
Petroleum
Data for these industries is available for
the period spanning 2020 to 2070.
Sugar, Meat, Dairy, and Fish Processing:
The data for these industries is available
for the period spanning 2005 to 2022.
Industrial production until 2070
was projected using the following
methodology:
GDP and GVA Data Preparation:
Quarterly real GDP (at 2011-12 prices)
was available for 2011-12 to 2023-24
(henceforth referred as ‘P
2
’) but not
available from 2005-06 to 2011-12
(henceforth referred as ‘P
1
’).
Real gross value added (GVA) at 2011-12
prices for 2005-06 to 2023-24 (henceforth
referred as ‘P
n
’) was obtained from the
Economic Survey 2023-24: Statistical
Appendix.
Since, GVA is the total of GDP and
subsidies and taxes (s.t), subtracting GDP
from GVA for P
2
years provided the
subsidies and taxes for the said years. The
s.t was correlated with GVA for the years of
P
2
and back forecasted for the years of P
1
.
Since,
(GVA
y
= GDP
y
+ s.t
y
),
where,
GVA
y
is gross value added for a
particular year
GDP
y
is gross domestic for a particular
year
s.t
y
is subsidies and taxes for a particular
year
y is any particular year
Fertilisers, Textiles, Paper and
Pulp, and Petroleum:
NITI Aayog, Government of
India
Sugar:
National Food Security Mission,
Ready Reckoner, Crop Unit-
IV, Statistics on Cotton, Jute
& Sugar, Page 69 (Ministry of
Agriculture and Family Welfare,
2019)
Annexure XXIX, Status Paper
on Sugarcane, Directorate
of Sugarcane Development,
Ministry of Agriculture
(Directorate of Sugarcane
Development, 2015)
Directorate of Sugar, Department
of Food and Public Distribution,
Ministry of Consumer Affairs,
Food and Public Distribution,
GoI (Department of Food and
Public Distribution, 2018)
Department of Food and
Public Distribution, Ministry
of Consumer Affairs, Food and
Public Distribution, GoI, Annual
Report 2023-24, Page 163
Dairy:
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics–2019, Department of
Animal Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, Government of India Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
59
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Thus,
s.t
y
= GVA
y
– GDP
y
Using this method, the real GDP at 2011-
12 prices was obtained for the years of P
1
,
thereby, ensuring that the real GDP estimates
at 2011-12 prices was available for all years
of P
n
. The actual quantum of meat, dairy
and fish production was available from NITI
Ayog was available for P
n
.
The elasticity of production (e) of each year
(y) in the period of P
n
was calculated using
the following formula:
11
11
yy y
y
yy y
QQ G
e
GG Q
−−
−−
−
= ×
−
where,
e
y
is the elasticity of production for a
particular year
Q
y
is the quantum of production in the
particular year
Q
y-1
is the quantum of production in the
previous year
G
y
is the GDP in the particular year
G
y-1
is the GDP in the previous year
Average elasticity of production (e
avg
) was
calculated which was used to forecast the
production values until 2070 based on the
GDP forecast until 2070 obtained from NITI
Ayog. The following formula was used for
this purpose.
( )
1
11
1
y
y avgy yy
y
Q
Q e GG Q
G
−
−−
−
= × ×− +
Basic Animal Husbandry &
Fisheries Statistics–2017,
Table 1, Department of
Animal Husbandry, Dairying
& Fisheries, Ministry of
Agriculture, Government of
India
Department of Animal
Husbandry and Dairying
Ministry of Fisheries, Animal
Husbandry and Dairying,
Government of India, Annual
Report 2023-24, Page 5
Meat:
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics- 2023, Page 20,
Department of Animal
Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, GoI
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics- 2019, Table 29,
Department of Animal
Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, GoI
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics- 2014, Table 19,
Department of Animal
Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, GoI
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics- 2012, Table 22,
Department of Animal
Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, GoI
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics- 2006, Table 49,
Department of Animal
Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, GoI Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
60
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
State-wise Meat Production,
Handbook of Statistics on Indian
States, Reserve Bank of India
Fish Processing
Handbook on Fisheries
Statistics 2014, Table A-2: Fish
Production by State/ Union
Territories 2000-01 to 2013-14
Handbook on Fisheries Statistics
2018, Section A–3: State / Union
Territory wise Fish Production
2011-12 to 2017-18
Handbook on Fisheries Statistics
2020, Table 1.2. State/UT
wise Inland and Marine Fish
production in India for the
period 2015-16 to 2019-20
Handbook on Fisheries Statistics
2022, Table 1.1. Inland and
Marine Fish production in India
for the period 2019-2021
Handbook on Fisheries Statistics
2023, Table 1.2. Inland and
Marine Fish production in India
for the year 2022
GDP Data:
Economic Survey of India,
2023-24, Statistical Appendix,
Government of India (Ministry
of Finance, 2024)
Wastewater
generated,
m
3
/tonnes
product (Wi)
Constant values of wastewater generated
per tonne of product have been applied for
2030-2070 for all the industry sectors due
to lack of year-on-year data.
For the textile sector, wastewater
generation standards were sourced from
CPCB standards for the discharge of
environmental pollutants.
Industry-wise wastewater generated per
tonne of product values used are provided
below:
Fertilisers, Sugar, Petroleum,
Dairy, Meat, Pulp and Paper, and
Fish Processing:
India Fourth Biennial Update
Report (BUR-IV), 2024, Table
2.32 (MoEFCC, 2024)
Textiles:
General Standards for Discharge
of Environmental Pollutants
Part-A: Effluents, CPCB (CPCB,
n.d.) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
61
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Industry
Wastewater generation
(m
3
/tonne of product)
Fertiliser31
Sugar1.0
Petroleum0.4
Textiles120
Dairy6
Meat13
Pulp & Paper 143
Fish Processing 13
Chemical
oxygen
demand
(CODi)
Constant values of Chemical Oxygen
Demand (CODi) have been used for
2030-2070 for all industry sectors due to
lack of year-on-year data
The COD value for textiles was assumed
to be same as that of tanneries, as per
NATCOM-III, due to the lack of specific
data. This approach ensures consistency
in emission estimation, given the
similarity in organic load characteristics
of their wastewater.
Industry
COD
(kg COD/m
3
)
Fertiliser3.00
Sugar6.20
Petroleum0.50
Textiles3.10
Dairy4.00
Meat4.00
Pulp & Paper 7.00
Fish Processing 2.50
Fertilisers, Sugar, Petroleum,
Dairy, Pulp and Paper, Meat and
Fish Processing:
India Fourth Biennial Update
Report (BUR-IV), 2024, Table
2.32 (MoEFCC, 2024)
Textiles:
India’s Third National
Communication and Initial
Adaptation Communication,
2023, Table 2.31 (MoEFCC,
2023)
Organic
component
removed as
sludge (Si)
0.35
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment
and Discharge, Equation Number
6.4 (IPCC, 2006)
Amount
of CH
4
recovered (Ri)
0
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment
and Discharge, Equation Number
6.4 (IPCC, 2006) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
62
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Emission Factors
Methane
correction
factor (MCFj)
Constant values of MCFj have been used
for 2020-2070 for all industry sectors due
to lack of year-on-year information.
As the textile and tannery industries
both generate wastewater with similar
treatment characteristics, the MCF value
for emission estimation for both these
industries is assumed to be the same , as
per NATCOM-III, due to the absence of
industry-specific data.
Methane Recovery (%) considered in the
industrial wastewater calculations i.e.
70-75% across for Sugar, Meat, Paper
and Pulp, Dairy, and textiles industries
(overall 45%) is based on NEERI data,
assumed to be constant until 2070 under
Current Policy Scenario.
Methane recovery data is not available for
fertiliser, Fish processing and petroleum
industries.
IndustryMCF
Fertiliser0.3
Sugar0.8
Petroleum0.3
Textiles0.8
Dairy0.5
Meat0.8
Pulp & Paper0.1
Fish Processing0.3
Fertilisers, Sugar, Petroleum,
Textiles, Dairy, Pulp and Paper,
Meat and Fish Processing:
India Fourth Biennial Update
Report (BUR-IV), 2024, Table
2.32 (MoEFCC, 2024)
Meat:
2006 IPCC guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Vol. 5, Chapter
6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge (IPCC, 2006)
Maximum
CH
4
producing
capacity (Bo)
0.25
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment
and Discharge, Equation Number
6.5 (IPCC, 2006) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 63
Annexure III:
Global Warming
Potential of
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse Gas
100- year Global Warming
Potential (GWP) – Second
Assessment Report (SAR), 1995
100- year Global Warming
Potential (GWP) – Fifth
Assessment Report (AR5), 2014
Carbon dioxide CO
2
11
Methane CH
4
2128
Nitrous oxide N
2
O310265
Source: IPCC Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 64
Annexure IV:
Grid Emission
Factors
A “grid emission factor” refers to a CO
2
emission factor (tCO
2
e/MWh) which will be associated
with each unit of electricity provided by an electricity system (Central Electricity Authority,
2021). The following table presents the emission factors (estimated by NITI Aayog) used
for estimating the impacts of electricity generation from the processing of waste on overall
emissions in Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario.
ScenarioUnit2050 2070
Current Policy Scenario (CPS)
tCO
2
e/(MWh)
0.33 0.07
Net Zero Scenario (NZS)0.26 0.00
Source: NITI Aayog Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 65
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Recommendations-Indore.pdf Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste (Vol. 8)
VOL. 8
SECTORAL INSIGHTS:
WASTE
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
SECTORAL INSIGHTS:
WASTE
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO Copyright © NITI Aayog, 2026
NITI Aayog
Government of India,
Sansad Marg, New Delhi–110001, India
Citation:
NITI Aayog. (2026). Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights:
Waste (Vol. 8)
Available at: https://niti.gov.in/publications/division-reports
Disclaimer
1. This document is not a statement of policy by the National Institution for Transforming India
(hereinafter referred to as NITI Aayog). It has been prepared by the Green Transition, Energy,
Climate, and Environment Division of NITI Aayog under various Inter-Ministerial Working Groups
(IMWGs) constituted to develop Net Zero pathways for India.
2. Unless otherwise stated, NITI Aayog, in this regard, has not made any representation or warranty,
express or implied, as to the completeness or reliability of the information, data, findings, or
methodology presented in this document. While due care has been taken by the author(s) in the
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3. The assertions, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report are those of the author(s)
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the data and conduct their analysis before forming conclusions or taking any policy, academic, or
commercial decisions. SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT
BHARAT AND NET ZERO
SECTORAL
INSIGHTS: WASTE
(VOL. 8) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste iii Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste iv Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste v
Authors and
Acknowledgement
Leadership
Sh. Suman Bery
Vice Chairman, NITI Aayog
Sh. B. V. R. Subrahmanyam
CEO, NITI Aayog
Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj
Programme Director, Green Transition,
Energy & Climate Change Division,
NITI Aayog
Sh. Rajnath Ram
Adviser, Energy, NITI Aayog
Authors
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist,
NITI Aayog
Dr. Anjali Jain
Consultant Grade-II, NITI Aayog
Sh. Nitin Bajpai
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Sh. Emani Kumar
Executive Director, ICLEI South Asia
Ms. Soumya Chaturvedula
Director, ICLEI South Asia
Ms. Bedoshruti Sadhukhan
Associate Director, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Nikhil Kolsepatil
Programme Coordinator, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Rahul
Senior Manager, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Souhardo Chakraborty
Manager, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Bhupandra Salodia
Deputy Manager, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Prateek Mishra
Assistant Manager, ICLEI South Asia
Sh. Shubh Lalit Dhadiwal
Project Officer, ICLEI South Asia
Peer Reviewers
Sh. Sharath Kumar Pallerla
Scientist G, Ministry of Environment,
Forest & Climate
Change (MoEFCC)
Sh. Ajay Raghava
Scientist E, Ministry of Environment, Forest
& Climate Change (MoEFCC)
Dr. M Karthik
Senior Principal Scientist, CSIR-National
Environmental Engineering Research
Institute
Dr. Debishree Khan
Scientist, CSIR-National Environmental
Engineering Research Institute Editors
Ms. Aastha Manocha
Editor and Communication Consultant
(Independent)
Ms. Rishu Nigam
Lead Editor and Communication Consultant
(Independent)
Ms. Srishti Dewan
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Communication and Research &
Networking Division, NITI Aayog
Ms. Anna Roy
Programme Director, Research & Networking
Sh. Yugal Kishore Joshi
Lead, Communication
Ms. Keerti Tiwari
Director, Communication
Dr. Banusri Velpandian
Senior Specialist, Research and Networking
Ms. Sonia Sachdeva Sharma
Consultant, Communication
Sh. Sanchit Jindal
Assistant Section Officer, Research and
Networking
Sh. Souvik Chongder
Young Professional, Communication
NITI Design Team
NITI Maps & Charts Team Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste vii
Contents
List of Figures ix
List of Tables x
List of Abbreviations xii
Executive Summary xv
1. Background..................................................................................................................................................1
2. Overview of Waste Sector in India...........................................................................................................5
2.1 Existing Solid Waste Management (SWM) Practices in India 6
2.2 Existing Domestic Wastewater Management in India 9
2.3 Key Policies and Regulations 10
2.4 National Level Programmes and Projects 11
2.5 India’s Baseline GHG Emissions 12
3. Methodology for Scenario Modelling....................................................................................................15
3.1 Modelling Approaches 16
3.2 Data Projections 19
3.3 Scenarios Modelled 20
4. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis........................................................................................21
4.1 Future Scenario of Waste Sector 22
4.2 Emissions Trajectory and Modelling Framework 25
5. Challenges. .................................................................................................................................................33
6. Suggestions.................................................................................................................................................37
Annexures...........................................................................................................................................................45
References. ..........................................................................................................................................................65 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste viii
List of Figures
Figure 2.1Composition of solid waste in India, 20207
Figure 2.2Subsector-wise share of GHG emissions in India’s waste sector in 202014
Figure 2.3Share of green house gases in India’s waste sector emissions in 202014
Figure 4.1Solid waste generation projections in India23
Figure 4.2Domestic wastewater generation projections in India23
Figure 4.3Industrial production projections in India24
Figure 4.4Industrial wastewater generation projections in India24
Figure 4.5GHG emissions from waste sector in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) vs the
Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
30 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste ix
List of Tables
Table 2.1 India’s GHG emissions from waste in 202013
Table 3.1 Type of emission factor and level of methodological tier adopted for
national-level GHG estimates for waste sector
18
Table 3.2 Data sources for waste sector GHG estimates18
Table 4.1 Targets for municipal solid waste25
Table 4.2 Targets for domestic wastewater26
Table 4.3 Targets for industrial wastewater26
Table 4.4 Sub-sectoral goals, targets, and strategies for the waste sector under the
Net Zero Scenario
28
Table 4.5 GHG emissions reduction by waste sector under Net Zero Scenario 30 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste x Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste xi
List of Abbreviations
AFD Agence Française de Développement
AMRUT Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation
AR5 Fifth Assessment Report
ASP Activated Sludge Process
BOD Biological Oxygen Demand
BUR Biennial Update Report
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CAPEX Capital Expenditure
CBG Compressed Biogas
CEA Central Electricity Authority
CH
4 Methane
CITIIS City Investments to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain
CNG Compressed Natural Gas
CO
2 Carbon Dioxide
COD Chemical Oxygen Demand
COP Conference of the Parties
CPCB Central Pollution Control Board
CPHEEO Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organisation
CPS Current Policy Scenario
CS Country-Specific
CSE Centre for Science and Environment
CT Community Toilet
DeWATS Decentralised Wastewater and Treatment System
DOC Degradable Organic Carbon
DWSC District Water Sanitation Committee
EE Energy Efficiency
EF Emission Factor List of Abbreviations Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xii
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment
EPR Extended Producer Responsibility
ETF Enhanced Transparency Framework
EU European Union
E-waste Electronic Waste
FAB Fluidised Aerobic Bioreactor
FC Finance Commission
F
IND-COM Factor for Industrial and Commercial co-discharged protein into the sewer
system
F
NON-CON Factor for Non-Consumed protein added to the wastewater
F
NPR Fraction of Nitrogen in Protein
FOD First Order Decay
FSSM Faecal Sludge and Septage Management
FSTP Faecal Sludge Treatment Plant
GCF Green Climate Fund
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse Gas
GOBARdhan Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan
GoI Government of India
GP Gram Panchayat
GWP Global Warming Potential
I&D Interception and Diversion
ICMR Indian Council of Medical Research
IESS India Energy Security Scenario
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau
kWh Kilowatt Hours
LCAP Low Carbon Action Plan
LFG Landfill Gas
LG Local Government
LiFE Lifestyle for Environment
MBBR Moving Bed Biofilm Reactor
MBR Membrane Bioreactor
MCF Methane Correction Factor
MDB Multilateral Development Bank List of Abbreviations Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xiii
MLD Million Litres per Day
MoEFCC Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change
MoHUA Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs
MoSPI Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
MRF Material Recovery Facility
MSW Municipal Solid Waste
MtCO
2
e Million Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
Mtoe Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent
MU Million Units
MWh Mega-Watt Hour
N₂O Nitrous Oxide
NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change
NATCOM National Communication
NCQG New Collective Quantified Goal
NDC Nationally Determined Contributions
NEERI National Environmental Engineering Research Institute
NFHS National Family Health Survey
NFSRTW National Framework on Safe Reuse of Treated Water
NITI National Institution for Transforming India
NIUA National Institute of Urban Affairs
N
SLUDGE Nitrogen Removed from Sludge
NSSO National Sample Survey Organisation
NZS Net Zero Scenario
O&M Operations and Maintenance
OPEX Operational Expenditure
PIB Press Information Bureau
PPP Public Private Partnership
PT Public Toilet
QA Quality Assurance
QC Quality Control
RDD Rural Development Department
RDF Refused Derived Fuel
RE Renewable Energy
SAR Second Assessment Report
SATAT Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation List of Abbreviations Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xiv
SBM Swachh Bharat Mission
SBR Sequencing Batch Reactor
SCF Segregated Combustible Fraction
SDG Sustainable Development Goal
SLB Service Level Benchmark
STP Sewage Treatment Plant
SWDS Solid Waste Disposal Site
SWM Solid Waste Management
TOW Tonnes of Organic Waste
TPD Tonnes Per Day
UASB Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket
ULB Urban Local Body
UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UT Union Territory
WSP Waste Stabilisation Ponds
WtE Waste-to-Energy
Note: Currency Conversion: In this report, “INR” refers to Indian Rupee; USD 1 = INR 88.19 as per the exchange rate
on 08 September 2025. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste xv
Executive Summary
In 2020, India’s total Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions (excluding Land Use, Land-Use
Change, and Forestry [LULUCF]) were estimated at 2,959 million tonnes of CO
2
equivalent
(MtCO₂e), with per capita emissions of 2.20 tCO
2
e (MoEFCC, 2024). India’s cumulative and
per capita emissions remain far below the global average.
As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, India revised its Nationally Determined Contributions
(NDCs) in 2022, committing to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 45% by 2030
(based on 2005 levels), promote sustainable lifestyles through the Lifestyle for Environment
(LiFE) initiative, and reach Net Zero emissions by 2070 under the Panchamrit Action Plan as
announced at the 26
th
Conference of the Parties (COP26). These commitments cover renewable
energy, energy efficiency, climate resilient urbanisation, and waste management.
In 2020, the waste sector accounted for 75.64 MtCO
2
e, which is 2.56% of India’s total
emissions, as per India’s fourth Biennial Update Report (BUR-4). With India’s urban population
share expected to grow from 34.9% in 2020 to 53% in 2050, material consumption and waste
generation are expected to rise significantly. In 2020, India generated 100.9 million tonnes (Mt)
of municipal solid waste and 221,173 million litres per day (MLD) of domestic wastewater.
This scale of waste and wastewater generation places strain on collection systems, treatment
infrastructure, and disposal pathways. Cities like Indore, Pune and Bengaluru have demonstrated
the potential of modernised waste systems through robust segregation, material recovery,
bio-methanation and public-private partnership (PPP) models but challenges remain across
most cities: limited treatment capacity, poor segregation practices, plastic waste leakage, and
large volumes of untreated wastewater. The management of wastewater, in particular, presents
certain structural deficiencies, as outlined below:
39% sewer network coverage
48% of households are reliant on septic tanks; 11% on pit latrines
Only 44.9% of sewage is collected and treated; the remaining sewage collected
remains untreated due to infrastructure deficits Executive Summary Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xvi
Policy and Planning Alignment
A climate-aligned waste transition connects India’s long-term climate strategy with ongoing
national missions such as Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM 2.0), Atal Mission for Rejuvenation
and Urban Transformation (AMRUT), and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 6, 11, 12
and 13. Strengthened governance, technology upgrades, integration of informal workers, and
circularity-driven interventions underpin this transition.
This study, Pathways to Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste, highlights the sector’s potential
to contribute to India’s climate commitments. It presents a detailed emissions trajectory for
the waste sector, based on two distinct scenarios: Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net
Zero Scenario (NZS), offering insights into the transformative shifts required to meet long-
term goals.
Emissions Trajectory and Modelling Framework
Emissions modelling for solid waste, domestic wastewater, and industrial wastewater has been
conducted under both Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario. Both scenarios use
2020 as the baseline year and apply the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
2006 Guidelines (Volume 5: Waste), using Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 approaches with default
and country-specific emission factors.
The model reflects the effects of population growth, behavioural patterns, technological
adoption, and policy targets across 2050, and 2070.
Key Drivers Across Scenarios
Solid Waste Management
Current Policy Scenario: Solid waste generation rises from 158.9 Mt in 2030 to
476.2 Mt by 2070 (Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 2.8%). Treatment
reaches 85% by 2050, but unmanaged fractions persist
Net Zero Scenario: Per-capita waste generation is capped at 0.622 kg/day post 2047;
100% collection and segregation is achieved; treatment levels reach 85% nationally
Domestic Wastewater
Current Policy Scenario: Sewer connectivity increases to 65% by 2070, with partial
methane recovery
Net Zero Scenario: Sewer connectivity expands to 85%, enabling universal methane
capture and advanced treatment Executive Summary Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xvii
Industrial Wastewater
Current Policy Scenario: Methane recovery improves but remains partial
Net Zero Scenario: 100% methane recovery by 2040, combined with treatment
system upgrades by 2035
Waste Sector Emissions Outlook: Current Policy Scenario vs Net Zero
Scenario
The modelling shows that without enhanced ambition, emissions from the waste sector will
continue to rise steadily through 2070 under the Current Policy Scenario. Conversely, the Net
Zero Scenario demonstrates a sharp decline, driven by circularity, universal collection, methane
recovery, and advanced treatment technologies. In the Current Policy Scenario, emissions grow
more than three times by 2070 compared to emissions in 2020, while in the Net Zero Scenario,
emissions decline sharply due to the adoption of scientific waste handling techniques such as
bio-methanation, bio-Compressed Natural Gas (bio-CNG), and methane recovery. Industrial
and domestic wastewater emissions fall significantly in the Net Zero Scenario as both sectors
adopt advanced anaerobic treatment systems, resulting in much lower emissions compared
with Current Policy Scenario.
Projected Emissions Trajectory: Current Policy Scenario vs Net Zero
Scenario
Current Policy Scenario: Waste sector emissions grow from 75.64 MtCO
2
e in 2020
to 266.10 MtCO
2
e by 2070, an increase of 3.5x during these years
Net Zero Scenario: Emissions fall to 10.9 MtCO
2
e by 2070, a reduction of 95.9%
compared to Current Policy Scenario level
The difference between the two pathways arises from technology choice, treatment coverage,
and methane recovery. Scientific disposal methods such as bio-methanation, bio-CNG, and
advanced anaerobic digestion result in significantly lower methane emissions compared with
conventional composting and unmanaged disposal.
Sub-sectoral Shifts: Industrial and domestic wastewater emissions decline steeply in Net Zero
Scenario due to universal adoption of anaerobic treatment systems, improved sewerage, and
high methane recovery. By 2070:
Current Policy Scenario: Industrial wastewater (47%) dominates emissions,
followed by domestic wastewater (36%) and solid waste (17%)
Net Zero Scenario: Emissions from industrial wastewater reach near to zero, while
the reduction in emissions from domestic wastewater and solid waste is around
98.5% and 78.8% respectively from their values in Current Policy Scenario Executive Summary Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
xviii
Key Levers for Waste Sector Transition
Waste Reduction and Source Segregation
Strengthening Primary and Secondary Collection and Transportation
Processing and Resource Recovery
Scientific Disposal and Bio-remediation
Universal access to scientific and economical toilets
Safe collection and transfer to treatment facilities
Maximising treatment and faecal sludge treatment with methane recovery
Enhancing circularity through reuse and recycling
Implement well-managed aerobic systems (≈0 MCF)
Enhance methane recovery from industrial wastewater
Strengthening Technical Expertise and Capacity Building
Advancing Climate-based Participatory Budgeting and Sustainable Procurement
Enabling Private Sector Involvement
Strengthening Public Awareness and Engagement
Establishing a Robust Monitoring and Evaluation Framework
Financing sources include PPPs, carbon credits, green bonds, international climate funds, and
national missions.
Conclusion
Continuing down the Current Policy Scenario pathway, India’s waste sector emissions are
projected to nearly double by 2070. By contrast, the Net Zero Scenario pathway demonstrates
the potential for a 95.9% reduction through circularity, advanced treatment technologies,
universal methane recovery, and integrated waste systems. Aligning national missions with
low-carbon pathways, strengthening urban governance, and promoting sustainable waste
practices will position the waste sector as a critical enabler of India’s long-term goals of
advancing environmental health, resource efficiency, and a resilient Net Zero future by 2070. 1
BACKGROUND Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 2
India is the fastest-growing large economy and is poised to continue on this path. India aspires
to be the third-largest economy by 2027 and a developed nation (Viksit Bharat) with a USD
30 trillion economy by 2047, when it marks 100 years of its independence
1
.
As India’s economic growth accelerates, its energy demand and corresponding environmental
impact, especially Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, will also increase. In 2020, India’s
total GHG emissions, excluding Land Use Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), were
estimated to be 2,959 MtCO
2
e, with per capita GHG emissions of 2.20 tCO
2
e
2
. However, India’s
global carbon footprint remains significantly below the global average, both in cumulative
and per capita terms (MoEFCC, 2024).
As a prominent signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), India submitted its first Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2015,
and updated it in 2022 (PIB, 2022). The NDCs highlight a healthy and sustainable way of
living through a mass movement, Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE), to combat climate change
and reduce the country’s emissions intensity of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 45%
by 2030 from 2005 levels (UNFCCC, 2022). At the Conference of Parties, 26 (COP 26) in
2021, the Prime Minister of India announced that India would achieve Net Zero emissions
by 2070 and introduced its Panchamrit Action Plan (five key climate actions). These targets
were incorporated into the updated NDCs (PIB, 2022). These NDCs focus on broader climate
mitigation and adaptation strategies supported by ambitious national plans, such as a thrust on
renewable energy (RE) and enhancing energy efficiency (EE), climate-resilient urban centres,
sustainable green transportation, networks, Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), and the Make in
India programme (MoEFCC, 2018). These efforts collectively aim to reduce the emission
intensity and are not bound to sector-specific individual targets and mitigation actions (Down
to Earth, 2022).
1 Press Information Bureau [PIB], 2024
2 Calculated based on population figures and national emission estimates for 2020 reported in India’s Fourth Biennial Update Report
(BUR-4).
Background
1 Background Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
3
Box 1: What are Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)?
NDCs are central to the Paris Agreement, as outlined in Article 4, and represent each
country’s commitment to reducing emissions and adapting to climate change impacts.
Under Article 4, countries are required to prepare, communicate, and update their NDCs
every five years, with each successive submission reflecting increased ambition. This
submission cycle, which began with the first round of NDCs in 2020 and every five
years thereafter (e.g., 2025, 2030), is designed to ensure that global climate goals are
progressively achieved.
Source: https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/nationally-determined-contributions-ndcs.
India’s growing economy material and product footprint. The expansion of GDP by nearly
eight-fold will lead to an enormous increase in industrial and waste output. For example, the
annual material consumption increased from 1.18 billion tonnes to 7 billion tonnes between
1970 and 2015 and is expected to reach 14.2 billion tonnes by 2030 (Ministry of Housing
and Urban Affairs [MoHUA], 2021). This has significantly increased waste generation and
GHG emissions over the years. In 2020, the waste sector contributed to only 2.56% of India’s
total GHG emissions, yet its emissions have increased by more than 3 times between 1994
and 2020 (MoEFCC, 2024). Wastewater treatment and discharge (domestic and industrial)
contributed to 73.9% of the sector’s emissions, while solid waste disposal contributed 26.1%
(MoEFCC, 2024). Methane (CH
4
) is the primary GHG emitted from solid waste disposal, as
well as from domestic and industrial wastewater treatment and discharge (ICLEI South Asia,
2023). India’s urban population is set to reach 53% by 2050, compared to 35% in 2020
3
.
This rapid urbanisation, along with population growth, economic development, and changing
lifestyles, is expected to substantially increase the quantum of municipal solid waste (MSW)
and domestic and industrial wastewater, thereby increasing the emissions.
The waste sector is emerging as a critical focus area due to its significant potential to reduce
GHG emissions, particularly CH
4
, with its higher warming potential than CO
2
. Therefore,
strengthening capacities and governance mechanisms are essential to integrate low-carbon
solutions into the planning, design, implementation, and financing of Municipal Solid Waste
(MSW) and wastewater management systems. This would facilitate achieving overall climate-
compatible development that is aligned with the targets of national programmes. This includes
programmes such as Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) and Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and
Urban Transformation (AMRUT), but also with global commitments such as the SDG–6
3 ICLEI South Asia analysis based on the population data shared by NITI Aayog. Background Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
4
(Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG-7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG-11 (Sustainable
Cities and Communities), SDG-12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), and SDG-13
(Climate Action).
In this context, NITI Aayog undertook a detailed assessment for the waste sector until 2070.
This involved a baseline assessment and development of two scenarios–Current Policy Scenario
(CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS), using 2020 as the baseline year. 1 2
OVERVIEW OF WASTE
SECTOR IN INDIA Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 6
2
Overview of the
Waste Sector in India
There are complex challenges in managing diverse waste streams, including Municipal Solid
Waste (MSW), wastewater, plastic waste, bio-medical waste, construction and demolition
debris, hazardous waste, and electronic waste (e-waste). Rapid urbanisation, changing
consumption patterns, and population growth have significantly increased waste generation,
thus putting pressure on existing waste management systems. Untreated solid or liquid waste
leads to environmental degradation, contamination of water bodies, and public health risks.
India is steadily advancing towards sustainable waste management through strengthened
regulatory frameworks, decentralised solutions, innovative technologies, and an emphasis on
public-private partnerships. Ongoing initiatives like the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM)–Urban/
Gramin, Smart Cities Mission (SCM), City Investments to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain
2.0 (CITIIS 2.0) and AMRUT are pivotal in tackling diverse waste management challenges.
Policies such as the Solid Waste Management Rules 2016, Plastic Waste Management Rules
2016, and E-Waste Management Rules 2022 also provide essential support to state and local
governments for more efficient waste management. With a growing focus on circular economy
principles and resource recovery, India’s waste sector is evolving to align with environmental
sustainability goals.
2.1 Existing Solid Waste Management (SWM) Practices in India
Solid Waste Management (SWM) is a cornerstone of environmental sustainability. Effective
waste handling and management can safeguard public health, mitigate environmental pollution,
and conserve natural resources. This section delves into the state of SWM in the country,
exploring key aspects such as trends in waste generation, collection, transportation, treatment,
and disposal methods. It highlights the gaps in infrastructure, limited adoption of sustainable
technologies, and insufficient segregation and recycling practices. Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
7
Solid Waste Generation
The rising volume of waste generated in India is driven by population growth, urbanisation,
lifestyle changes, and evolving consumption patterns. Urban areas contribute disproportionately
to waste generation due to their dense population, industrial activity, and commercial
development. India generated an estimated total of 101 Mt of solid waste in 2020
4
. Of this,
61% ended up in landfills, and the remaining primarily underwent treatment, processing and
incineration.
In 2020, of the total waste processed in India, 28.5% was composted, 0.9% treated through bio-
methanation, 0.02% converted to bio-CNG, 0.5% waste recycled via Material Recovery Facility
(MRF), and 2.8% incinerated, including through Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF) and palletisation.
In terms of composition, Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) consisted of approximately 50%
organic or compostable material, 25% recyclables, 15% non-recyclable combustibles, and
10% miscellaneous waste as of 2020 (see Figure 2.1) (Centre for Science and Environment
[CSE], 2022).
Organic/
Compostable
50%
Recyclable/
resource
recoverable
fraction
25%
Non-
recyclable/
combustible
(RDF)
15%
Miscellaneous
Waste
10%
Figure 2.1: Composition of solid waste in India, 2020
Source: Toolkit Preparing City Solid Waste Action Plan under Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM 2.0), Centre for Science
and Environment (CSE)
Waste Collection and Transportation
In India, local authorities are primarily responsible for collecting and transporting solid waste
through primary and secondary collection methods. As per Swachh Bharat Mission (Urban)
2.0, 97% of Indian cities have implemented door-to-door waste collection systems, and
initiatives to promote source segregation are gaining traction, but with varying levels of success.
4 ICLEI South Asia analysis based on the data provided by NITI Aayog, NEERI, and data sourced from India Energy Security Scenario
(IESS) 2047. Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
8
Segregated waste is typically divided into biodegradable, recyclable, and non-recyclable
categories. However, rural areas have minimal waste segregation, although programmes like
the Swachh Bharat Mission (Gramin) are beginning to raise awareness about sustainable waste
management practices.
In India, compactors, tippers, and mini-trucks transport waste from collection points to treatment
or disposal sites. Larger cities often rely on waste transfer stations where waste is compacted
to optimise logistics before it is transported to its destination. However, inefficiencies in
transportation frequently leave waste uncollected in certain urban pockets.
Collection and transportation of waste have various gaps, including an inadequate workforce,
gaps in infrastructure for waste storage at source, and limited implementation of door-to-
door collection services. These services are often facilitated by municipal workers or private
contractors, but they lack synchronisation with transfer depots and transportation facilities. As
a result, informal secondary collection points, often referred to as garbage vulnerable spots,
tend to develop, where waste that does not make it to the formal collection system ends up
accumulating.
Processing and Disposal
India is gradually adopting advanced waste treatment technologies such as composting,
bio-methanation, bio-Compressed Natural Gas (bio-CNG), and Material Recovery Facility
(MRF) to segregate recyclable materials like plastics, metals, and paper. Many cities have
successfully implemented waste management initiatives through PPP models. Indore and
Pune, for example, have engaged private players in waste collection, transport, and treatment
operations. Indore’s composting and bio-methanation plants, operating under PPP agreements,
are noteworthy examples of sustainable and scalable waste management practices. Sanitary
landfills are used to dispose post-treatment residual waste. In other cities and towns, however,
inadequate infrastructure forces most of them to rely on open dumping, which poses significant
environmental and health risks. Emerging trends, technology and innovation in cities indicate
a shift toward decentralised waste management solutions. Localised approaches such as
home composting and small-scale treatment units are being adopted to reduce dependency
on transportation and landfill sites.
Integrating informal waste pickers and recyclers into formal systems has improved recycling
efficiency and provided livelihood opportunities. Additionally, technological advancements
have led to GPS-enabled vehicles for waste collection and sensor-based monitoring at landfills.
Despite these advancements, India’s solid waste management remains a mix of progress and
persistent challenges. Urban areas are moving towards innovative and technology-driven
solutions, while rural areas require more investment in infrastructure, formalisation of waste
systems, and community awareness. Waste treatment facilities are less developed in rural
areas. Composting pits for organic waste are commonly used at the household or community Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
9
level, and small-scale biogas plants are found in some regions. However, most rural waste is
openly dumped, leading to pollution and contamination of nearby water sources.
Box 2: Key Sources of Solid Waste
Solid waste can be broadly categorised into several types, based on their sources:
Urban Areas:
Household Waste: Residential waste constitutes a significant portion of urban waste.
It includes organic waste (food waste), packaging materials, plastics, metals, and other
non-biodegradable items.
Commercial Waste: This includes waste generated by markets, restaurants, shopping
malls, offices, and other commercial establishments. It is often a mix of organic and
inorganic materials.
Construction and Demolition Waste: Large-scale construction activities in urban areas
produce a significant amount of waste, including concrete, wood, and metal scraps.
E-waste: Urban areas, with their greater access to technology, are major producers of
electronic waste, which includes outdated and broken electronic devices.
Rural Areas:
Agricultural Waste: Agricultural activities are main sources of waste such as crop
residues, animal waste, and unused or discarded materials like plastics used in farming.
Household Waste: Like urban areas, rural households too generate organic waste (food
scraps) and inorganic waste (plastic wrappers, broken items).
Animal Waste: Livestock farming produces large amounts of manure, which, if
improperly managed, can cause pollution.
2.2 Existing Domestic Wastewater Management in India
Effective domestic wastewater management is vital to safeguard public health, maintain water
quality, and support ecosystem resilience. This section looks at prevalent practices, identifies
key challenges, and explores potential strategies to enhance wastewater management systems
across India.
Current Status of Domestic Wastewater Management
An estimated 221,173 million litres per day (MLD) of wastewater was generated in India
in 2020
5
. Population growth, urbanisation, and economic activities have led to a significant
increase in wastewater generation. Wastewater management remains a critical challenge due to
5 ICLEI South Asia analysis based on the data provided by NITI Aayog, NEERI, and data sourced from India Energy Security
Scenario (IESS) 2047. Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
10
infrastructure and operational gaps, particularly in sewage collection, treatment, and disposal
in India.
In India, around 47% of households used septic tanks as of 2020, and 33% had access to
centralised sewerage systems. Of the sewage collected, 55.1% remained untreated due to
infrastructure gaps (MoSPI, 2023). Among treatment facilities, 63.75% used aerobic treatment
solutions, and the remaining 36.25% used anaerobic processes (CPCB, 2021). The lack of
centralised infrastructure leads to large amounts of uncollected and untreated wastewater.
2.3 Key Policies and Regulations
India’s waste management ecosystem is governed by a comprehensive suite of regulations
and policies designed to manage waste generation, segregation, collection, transportation,
treatment, and disposal. This section reviews the existing regulatory landscape, key policies,
and national level programme and projects. Box 3 below describes key policies and regulations
for India’s waste sector.
Box 3: Key Policies and Regulations
Solid Waste Management Rules, 2016 (Amended in 2020): The Solid Waste Management
(SWM) Rules 2016 mandate the segregation of waste at source into biodegradable, non-
biodegradable, and hazardous categories and emphasise door-to-door collection, scientific
processing, and disposal of waste. The rules outline the responsibilities of key stakeholders,
including the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), the Ministry of
Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA), relevant departments, district collectors, the secretary in
charge of urban development in the state, pollution control boards, urban local bodies (ULBs),
waste generators, waste processing units, and facilities that utilise processed waste (such as
cement plants using Refused Derived Fuel (RDF) in managing Municipal Solid Waste (MSW).
The 2020 amendment notifies that the rules shall apply to villages with population of over 3000
as well (Central Public Health Environmental Engineering Organisation (CPHEEO), 2016).
Plastic Waste Management Rules, 2016 (Amended 2021): It aims to reduce the environmental
impact of plastic waste by emphasising source segregation, recycling, and environmentally
sound disposal. Key provisions include Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), which makes
producers, importers, and brand owners accountable for managing plastic waste. The 2021 and
2022 amendments strengthened these regulations by targeting single-use plastic items, specifying
a phased ban on products with low utility and high littering potential. They also introduced clearer
EPR guidelines and mandated plastic producers to submit action plans for waste management
(CPCB, 2021). Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
11
National Policy on Faecal Sludge and Septage Management, 2017: It aims to ensure safe and
sustainable sanitation practices. It addresses the challenges of managing human waste from on-
site sanitation systems like septic tanks and pit latrines. The policy emphasises the importance of
proper collection, transportation, treatment, and disposal of faecal sludge and septage to prevent
environmental pollution and protect public health (Ministry of Urban Development, 2017).
National Framework on the Safe Reuse of Treated Water (NFSRTW): The Ministry of Jal
Shakti published the NFSRTW in 2021 with the vision of ensuring widespread and safe reuse of
treated water in India (Ministry of Jal Shakti, 2022).
2.4 National Level Programmes and Projects
India has launched several national-level programmes and projects to address challenges in
solid waste management, domestic wastewater treatment, and industrial effluent control. Key
initiatives include the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban
Transformation (AMRUT), Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan (GoBARDHAN),
and Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation (SATAT). These programmes
together lay the institutional and infrastructural groundwork to support India’s long-term
sustainability and climate goals. Box 4 below describes the national level programmes and
projects for India’s waste sector.
Box 4: National Level Programmes and Projects
Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) and AMRUT 2.0: These
are the Government of India’s flagship programmes that aim to improve urban infrastructure and
quality of life. AMRUT, launched in 2015, focuses on providing amenities like water supply,
sewerage, urban transport, and green spaces in 500 selected cities. AMRUT 2.0, launched in
2021, builds upon the foundation of AMRUT, with a focus on providing universal water supply
and sewerage coverage in all statutory towns (PIB, 2022).
Swachh Bharat Mission-Urban (SBM-Urban): It is a nationwide cleanliness campaign
launched by the Government of India in 2014. SBM 2.0 was launched in 2021. The mission
aims to achieve 100% sanitation coverage in India by eliminating open defecation and
promoting Solid Waste Management (SWM). As a key outcome of the mission, 1,140
lakh tonnes of legacy waste have been bio-remediated from dump sites, which accounts
for 48% of the total legacy waste across 2,429 dump sites nationwide (MoHUA, 2021). Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
12
Swachh Bharat Mission-Gramin (SBM-Gramin): Swachh Bharat Mission Gramin and
Gramin 2.0 (SBM-G 2.0) focus on sustaining the achievements of its SBM (Gramin) phase,
while addressing gaps in sanitation. The mission prioritises solid and liquid waste management,
recognising sanitation as a crucial factor for health, dignity, and well-being (Ministry of Jal
Shakti, 2021).
City Investments to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain 2.0 (CITIIS 2.0): The Government of
India approved the CITIIS 2.0 program on 31 May 2023. Conceived by the Ministry of Housing
and Urban Affairs (MoHUA) in partnership with the Agence Française de Développement (AFD),
Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW), the European Union (EU), and the National Institute of
Urban Affairs (NIUA), the program will run for four years (2023–2027). The CITIIS 2.0 program
is supporting 18 cities in implementing circular economy, integrated waste management and
climate-resilient urban projects. It focuses on city-level innovation, state-level capacity building,
and national-level knowledge sharing to drive sustainable urban transformation (NIUA, 2023).
Smart Cities Mission (SCM): The Smart Cities Mission in India prioritises sustainable waste
management. Key initiatives focus on scientific waste management practices, including segregation
at source, waste-to-energy solutions, and recycling programs to minimise landfill dependence.
GoBARDHAN (Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan): The Ministry of Jal Shakti
launched this initiative under
Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) to promote the management of
organic waste and improve the management of solid waste. It primarily focuses on converting
organic waste from agricultural, livestock, and urban waste into bioenergy, including biogas, and
organic fertilisers (Ministry of Jal Shakti, 2023).
Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation (SATAT): The SATAT scheme,
launched by the Government of India in 2018, aims to promote the production and adoption of
Compressed Biogas (CBG) as an alternative fuel for transportation (Ministry of Petroleum and
Natural Gas, 2023).
2.5 India’s Baseline GHG Emissions
As part of its global climate commitments, India has been regularly reporting its greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions through the National Communications (NATCOMs) and Biennial Update
Reports (BURs). In addition, under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) established
by the Paris Agreement, all Parties are now mandated to submit a Biennial Transparency
Report (BTR) that provides transparent and consistent updates on national progress toward
climate goals.
India submitted its Fourth Biennial Update Report (BUR-4) in 2024, which includes its
economy-wide emissions for 2020 (MoEFCC, 2024). The BUR-4 reports Waste sector Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
13
emissions for three sub-sectors in line with IPCC Guidelines: i) solid waste management,
which includes disposal, biological treatment, and incineration; ii) domestic wastewater
treatment and discharge; and iii) industrial wastewater treatment and discharge.
As reported in India’s BUR-4, GHG emissions from the waste sector in 2020 were estimated
at 75.64 MtCO
2
e, accounting for 2.56% of the country’s total emissions, and 3.4% higher
than in 2019 (MoEFCC, 2024). Although the sector’s contribution to overall economy-wide
emissions remains modest, with rapid urbanisation, population growth, and shifts in consumer
behaviour, it is expected to increase further, though steadily. The sub-sectoral and gas-wise
breakup of India’s waste sector emissions is presented in Table 2.1 below.
Table 2.1: India’s GHG emissions from waste in 2020
Sub-Sector
CO
2
Emissions
(MtCO
2
)
CH
4
Emissions
(MtCH
4
)
N
2
O Emissions
(MtN
2
O)
Total (MtCO
2
e)
Solid Waste Management 0.479 0.917 - 19.75
Solid Waste Disposal - 0.911 - 19.14
Biological treatment of
solid waste
- 0.006 - 0.127
Incineration of waste 0.479 -- 0.479
Domestic Wastewater
Treatment & Discharge
- 0.772 0.0578 34.13
Industrial Wastewater
Treatment & Discharge
- 1.036 - 21.76
Total (Waste)0.479 2.726 0.0578 75.64
Note: The estimate considers a 100-year time-horizon Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC Second
Assessment Report (AR2).
As depicted in Table 2.1, wastewater treatment and discharge were the most significant
contributors to GHG emissions, accounting for approximately 74% of the sector’s total
emissions, i.e., 55.89 MtCO
2
e. Of this, domestic wastewater accounted for 34.13 MtCO
2
e of the
emissions (about 45% of the sectoral emissions), while industrial wastewater contributed about
21.76 MtCO
2
e (about 29% of the sectoral emissions). This dominant share of the wastewater
subsector reflects India’s continued reliance on methane-intensive sanitation systems, such
as septic tanks and pit latrines in households, along with high organic loads and inefficient
wastewater treatment in industries. The data also underscores the lack of methane recovery
systems in the wastewater sector and reliance on aerobic treatment systems.
Emissions from solid waste in 2020 were estimated at 19.75 MtCO
2
e, accounting for the
remaining 26% of sectoral emissions. Solid waste disposal is the predominant driver of
emissions, accounting for approximately 97% of the sub-sector emissions (i.e., 19.14 MtCO
2
e).
In comparison, emissions from biological treatment and incineration of solid waste were Overview of the Waste Sector in India Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
14
limited to 0.127 MtCO
2
e and 0.479 MtCO
2
e, respectively. This reflects the dominance of
open dumping practices and the limited availability of scientifically managed sanitary landfills
nationwide.
In terms of GHGs (CO
2
e), methane (CH₄) was the dominant gas, accounting for 75.7% of
total waste-sector emissions in 2020. In contrast, Nitrous oxide (N
2
O) accounted for 23.7%
of the emissions, and the remaining 0.6% was attributed to carbon dioxide (CO
2
) emissions,
originating primarily from the incineration of solid waste (see Figure 2.3).
Solid Waste
Management
26%
Domestic
Wastewater
45%
Industrial
Wastewater
29%
CO
2
0.6%
CH
4
75.7%
N
2
O
23.7%
Figure 2.2: Subsector-wise share of GHG emissions
in India’s waste sector in 2020
Figure 2.3: Share of green house gases
in India’s waste sector emissions in 2020
Overall, India’s 2020 waste sector emissions profile underscores that wastewater treatment and
disposal systems accounted for the majority of emissions, followed by solid waste disposal. The
baseline emissions profile provides an overview of the sector’s current emissions landscape.
However, as India progresses toward its Net Zero emissions goal, it becomes essential to
understand how policies and additional measures could influence future emissions levels. In
this context, climate modelling has been undertaken for the waste sector up to 2070 under two
scenarios, Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS), to assess the potential
trajectory of waste emissions. The detailed methodology and results of this modelling exercise
are presented in the subsequent sections. 1 3
METHODOLOGY
FOR SCENARIO
MODELLING Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 16
3
Methodology
for Scenario
Modelling
3.1 Modelling Approaches
There are various analytical models available for projecting waste sector emissions and
understanding trends in waste generation, treatment technologies, and mitigation strategies.
The study
has adopted the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,
utilising Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 approaches across sub-sectors (see Table 3.1). A combination
of top-down and bottom-up approaches has been used to estimate emissions. Both default and
country-specific emission factors (EFs) have been utilised as appropriate.
The top-down approach relies on macro-level statistics like population, per capita waste
generation, and economic parameters. Top-down models typically apply Tier 1 emission
factors from the IPCC guidelines and are appropriate for national-level estimations or general
projections. However, top-down models lack granularity to account for specific technologies,
treatment pathways, or regional conditions. Bottom-up approaches, on the contrary, are
modelled with disaggregated, detailed datasets that include the treatment and disposal
pathways (e.g. composting, anaerobic digestion, incineration, landfill for solid waste), and
system parameters such as process efficiencies and recovery activities. The bottom-up models
enable technology-level assessments, scenario analysis, and relatively more accurate forecasts
of emissions. They are generally aligned with Tier 2 and Tier 3 methodologies, providing
increased accuracy and policy alignment. Methodology for Scenario Modelling Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
17
Box 5: Methodological Approach by Sub-Sector
Solid Waste
Solid Waste Disposal: Emissions from solid waste disposal sites (SWDS) have been estimated
using Tier 1 and Tier 2 approaches. The First Order Decay (FOD) model, as outlined in the
2006 IPCC Guidelines, has been employed to estimate methane emissions from the anaerobic
decomposition of degradable organic carbon (DOC) in solid waste over time. Key input parameters
include the fraction of degradable organic matter, methane generation rate, and site-specific
management factors. Default decay constants and methane correction factors (MCF) have been
used for calculations.
Biological Treatment of Solid Waste: Emissions from biological treatment, including composting
and anaerobic digestion, have been estimated using a Tier 1 approach. Activity data for biological
treatment processes are derived from national datasets. Emission calculations have been based
on default emission factors specified in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines.
Waste Incineration: A Tier 3 approach has been applied for estimating emissions from waste
incineration as per the IPCC guidelines. Activity data, including the fraction of waste incinerated
is integrated with combustion characteristics such as combustion efficiency and carbon oxidation
factors. Emissions have been calculated using default emission factors specified in the 2006 IPCC
Guidelines.
Wastewater
Domestic Wastewater: Methane emissions from domestic wastewater have been estimated using
the Tier 1 approach based on population data and wastewater generation rates. Key parameters
include methane correction factors, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and the fraction of
wastewater treated anaerobically. Nitrous oxide (N
2
O) emissions have been estimated using a
Tier 1 approach, applying nitrogen content in wastewater based on national protein consumption
data. Emission factors for indirect N₂O emissions from wastewater discharge have been sourced
from the IPCC Guidelines.
Industrial Wastewater: Industrial wastewater CH₄ emissions have been estimated using the Tier
1 approach, incorporating a top-down methodology for key industrial sectors. Methane generation
potential is derived using sector-specific chemical oxygen demand (COD) or BOD values. Activity
data on industrial wastewater discharge and treatment pathways have been integrated with IPCC
default emission factors, considering the lack of detailed plant-level or process-specific data. Methodology for Scenario Modelling Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
18
Table 3.1: Type of emission factor and level of methodological tier adopted for national-level GHG
estimates for waste sector
IPCC
ID
GHG source & sink categories
CH
4
N
2
O
Method
Applied
Emission
Factor
Method
Applied
Emission
Factor
4A Solid Waste Disposal T1, T2 D, CS — —
4B
Biological Treatment of Solid
Waste
T1 D T1 D
4C1Waste IncinerationT3 D T3 D
4D1
Domestic wastewater treatment
and discharge
T1 D T1 D
4D1
Industrial wastewater treatment
and discharge
T1 CS — —
Notes: T: Tier; CS: Country-specific; D: IPCC default
A summary of the data sources utilised to estimate emissions is presented in Table 3.2 below.
Table 3.2: Data sources for waste sector GHG estimates
IPCC
ID
GHG source & sink
categories
Data Sources
4A Unmanaged Waste
Disposal Sites
Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB)
National Environmental Engineering Research Institute
(NEERI)
Central Public Health Environmental Engineering Institute
(CPHEEO)
NITI Aayog
Census of India
Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA)
Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) (Urban and Gramin)
IPCC 2006 Guidelines on national emission inventories
4B Biological Treatment
of Solid Waste
IPCC 2006 Guidelines on national emission inventories
CPCB
NEERI
SBM
4C1Waste Incineration IPCC 2006 Guidelines on national emission inventories
CPCB
NEERI Methodology for Scenario Modelling Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
19
IPCC
ID
GHG source & sink
categories
Data Sources
4D1Domestic wastewater
treatment and
discharge
CPCB
Census of India
National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO)
NEERI
India Third National Communication (NATCOM-III)
Biennial Update Report (BUR-III/IV)
Indian Council on Medical Research (ICMR)
IPCC 2006 Guidelines on national emission inventories
4D1Industrial wastewater
treatment and
discharge
NITI Aayog
CPCB
Economic Survey of India
Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries,
Government of India
Department of Food and Public Distribution, Ministry of
Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Government
of India (GoI)
NEERI
NATCOM-III
BUR – III/IV
IPCC 2006 Guidelines on national emission inventories
3.2 Data Projections
National-level projections extended to 2070 relied on a combination of interpolation,
extrapolation, and macro-level modelling. Key elements of the methodology used are:
Activity Data Projections: Population growth trends, combined with national
averages for per capita waste generation, BOD levels, per capita protein consumption.
Technological Assumptions: Incremental improvements in waste processing and
treatment have been modelled, reflecting anticipated advancements up to 2070.
Interpolation for Data Gaps: National datasets were used to interpolate missing
historical data, ensuring consistent trends across time periods.
Elasticity of Production: For industrial emissions, average elasticity of production
was calculated, which was used to forecast industrial production until 2070. This
methodology leverages economic trends and elasticity models to forecast future
industrial output based on macroeconomic changes.
6
Linear and Target-Based Approaches: Expansion in treatment capacity and reductions
in untreated sewage followed linear trajectories, aiming for zero untreated discharge.
6 Refer Annexure II – Part C for the detailed methodology on industrial production projections using elasticity method. Methodology for Scenario Modelling Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
20
3.3 Scenarios Modelled
Based on consultations with the working group comprising officials from MoEFCC, NEERI,
and NITI Aayog officials, two scenarios were developed to analyse emissions from India’s
waste sector. Annexure II contains detailed description of various data sources and assumptions
used in these scenarios. The broad definition of the two is as follows:
Current Policy Scenario (CPS): It represents projected GHG emissions based on
current trends, policies, and planned improvements. It reflects how emissions are
likely to evolve if India continues its current trajectory, gradually adopting cleaner
technologies and strengthening current waste management practices.
Net Zero Scenario (NZS): It outlines a transformative pathway to achieve Net Zero
emissions in India’s waste sector by 2070, aligning with the country’s broader climate
goals. The scenario builds on national policies, plans and initiatives, pushing for
more ambitious targets that go beyond current national commitments. This scenario
aims to enable a decisive shift toward a circular economy and sustainable waste
management practices.
Key policies, plans, and initiatives considered for Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero
Scenario for waste sector emission modelling include the following:
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), 2022
Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) 2.0 (Urban and Gramin)
Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) 2.0 (AMRUT 2.0)
Framing Guidelines for Model Land Uses, Development Controls, and Service Level
Benchmarks with Appropriate Enforcement Mechanisms for Rurban Clusters
Municipal Solid Waste Management Manual 2016 by the Central Public Health and
Environmental Engineering Organisation (CPHEEO, MoHUA)
Plastic Waste Management Rules, 2016 (Amended 2021)
National Policy on Faecal Sludge and Septage Management, 2017
National Framework on Safe Reuse of Treated Water, 2022
Draft Liquid Waste Management Rules 2024, Ministry of Environment, Forest and
Climate Change (MoEFCC), Government of India (MoEFCC, 2024)
G20 New Delhi Leaders’ Declaration, 2023 (Government of India, 2023)
Sustainable Alternative Towards Affordable Transportation (SATAT) scheme
Galvanizing Organic Bio-Agro Resources Dhan (GOBARdhan) Initiative under SBM
City Investments to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain 2.0 (CITIIS 2.0) 1 4
RESULTS AND
INSIGHTS FROM
SCENARIO
ANALYSIS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 22
4
Results and
Insights from
Scenario Analysis
India’s waste sector is projected to undergo significant transformation between 2030 and 2070
as demographic expansion, rising material consumption, and industrial growth accelerate the
generation of solid waste, domestic wastewater, and industrial effluents. While each subsector
behaves differently, the overall trend points to a steady increase in waste generation, which in
turn shapes emissions trajectories under both Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario.
4.1 Future Scenario of Waste Sector
Integrated Outlook for Waste Generation (2030 – 2070)
Solid waste generation, domestic wastewater discharge and industrial wastewater volumes
follow distinct growth trajectories but together indicate increasing pressures on India’s waste
systems.
Solid waste generation is projected to increase steadily from 158.9 Mt in 2030 to 333.3 Mt
in 2050 and 476.2 Mt in 2070, reflecting both population growth and evolving patterns of
consumption.
Domestic wastewater generation is also projected to increase from 240,684 Million Litres
per Day (MLD) in 2030 to 265,791
MLD in 2070. The steepest rise is expected before 2050,
in line with demographic growth, while stabilisation post-2050 reflects projected trends in
population and economic development. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
23
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
203020502070
Solid Waste Generation (Million Tonnes)
Figure 4.1: Solid waste generation projections in India (Million Tonnes)
2,25,000
2,30,000
2,35,000
2,40,000
2,45,000
2,50,000
2,55,000
2,60,000
2,65,000
2,70,000
203020502070
Wastewater Generation (in MLD)
Figure 4.2: Domestic wastewater generation projections in India (Million Litres per Day)
Industrial wastewater volumes are projected based on increasing production across eight
major industrial sectors
7
that includes dairy, petroleum, sugar, fish processing, textiles, paper
and pulp, fertilisers, and meat (see figure 4.3). The list of sectors is based on the Fourth
Biennial Update Report (BUR-IV)
and India’s Third National Communication (NATCOM-III)
(MoEFCC, 2024; MoEFCC, 2023). These industries are significant contributors to organic
wastewater and methane emissions. Production across all eight sectors is expected to expand
7 The Iron and Steel, Rubber, and Chlor-Alkali industries were excluded from the estimates because their Methane Correction Factor
(MCF) is considered to be zero in national inventories, including NATCOMs and BURs. A zero MCF indicates that the processes in
these industries operate under fully controlled aerobic conditions and do not produce methane. As a result, methane emissions from
these industries are either zero or negligible and are therefore excluded from the emission estimates. Additionally, the alcohol, plastic
and resins, soap and detergents, starch production, vegetable oils, vegetable, tannery, fruits and juices, and coffee industries have also
not been included in the analysis due to a lack of data and their minimal contribution to total waste emissions. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
24
steadily, leading to commensurate increases in effluent volumes. Annexure II – Part C provides
a summary of the data sources, methodological approach, and assumptions used for industrial
production projections. See the projected industrial production across these sectors below.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
203020502070
Industrial Production (in Million Tonnes)
TextilePaper and Pulp Fertiliser
SugarPetroleumDairy
MeatFish Processing Total
Figure 4.3: Industrial production projections in India
This upward trend in industrial activity is expected to lead to an increase in industrial wastewater
volumes and the associated GHG emissions. As shown in Figure 4.4, Industrial wastewater
generation is projected to reach 68,685 MLD by 2070 (more than 3.7 times the 2020 level),
highlighting the need for effective treatment systems and emissions mitigation strategies.
–
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
203020502070
Waste Water Generation (in MLD)
Figure 4.4: Industrial wastewater generation projections in India Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
25
4.2 Emissions Trajectory and Modelling Framework
The emissions modelling evaluates how solid waste, domestic wastewater, and industrial
wastewater contribute to overall GHG emissions under both Current Policy Scenario and Net
Zero Scenario. The modelling is based on a consistent methodological framework using the
IPCC 2006 Guidelines (Volume 5: Waste) and Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 approaches, depending
on data availability. Emissions are estimated for CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O. Factors influencing
emissions include waste quantities, treatment pathways, technology performance, methane
correction factors, methane recovery and population and economic activity trends.
Common assumptions applied across both scenarios, include the use of 2020 as the baseline
year, projection years of 2030, 2050 and 2070, and activity data based on national datasets,
BUR-IV, NATCOM-III, NEERI, CPCB and other official sources listed in Annexure II.
The detailed parameters for each subsector that feed directly into the modelling are presented
below (See Table 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3).
Table 4.1: Targets for municipal solid waste
20502070
Population (Billion)1.61.62
Current Policy Scenario Net Zero Scenario
Strategies2050 2070 2050 2070
Per Capita Waste Generation (kg/
Capita/Day)
0.775 1.004 0.622 0.622
Waste Disposal (%)15 15 15 15
Waste Processing (%)85 85 85 85
Target Setting for Solid Waste Processing (% of waste processed)
Composting (%)40 40 20 10
Bio-methanation
8
(%)*5 5 15 17
Bio-CNG (%)2 2 12 20
Waste Incineration/RDF (%) 15 15 15 15
MRF (Recycling) (%)23 23 23 23
8 In CPS, about 40% of waste is directed to composting in 2070. In contrast, under the NZS, composting is reduced to 10% due to its
relatively higher processing emissions, while the share of Bio-CNG and biomethanation increases from 2% and 5% in CPS to 20%
and 17% in NZS respectively, promoting cleaner and more energy-efficient waste processing pathways. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
26
Table 4.2: Targets for domestic wastewater
Strategies
Current Policy Scenario Net Zero Scenario
2030 2050 2070 2030 2050 2070
Degree of
utilisation
(%)
Sewer Network 46 59 65 48 65 85
Septic Tank 46 40 35 50 35 15
Treatment
Technology
(%)
Aerobic 64 64 64 64 42 26
Anaerobic 36 36 36 36 58 74
Treatment
Coverage
(%)
Performance
Improvement
of Aerobic
Wastewater
Treatment Plants/
DeWATs
0 0 0 30 100 100
Methane
Recovery from
Anaerobic
Wastewater
Treatment Plants/
DeWATs
10 10 10 30 100 100
Faecal Sludge
Treatment Plant
0 0 0 30 100 100
Biochemical Oxygen Demand
(BOD) (gram/person/day)
41 41 41 41 41 41
Average Annual Per Capita
Protein Consumption (kg/per
person/year)
24.09 28.24 28.24 24.09 28.24 28.24
Table 4.3: Targets for industrial wastewater
Industries
Current Policy Scenario Net Zero Scenario
2030 2050 2070 2030 2050 2070
Methane
Correction
Factor (MCF)
Textiles 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Paper and Pulp 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Fertiliser 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0 0
Sugar 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Petroleum 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0 0
Dairy
9
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8
Meat0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
Fish Processing0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0 0
9 In the CPS scenario, a 0.5 MCF indicates that wastewater treatment in the dairy industry relies on a combination of technologies
(Aerobic and Anaerobic) that are often overloaded and not well managed. In the Net Zero scenario, a higher 0.8 MCF is proposed,
reflecting the adoption of anaerobic treatment and methane recovery technologies. This improvement will enhance treatment efficiency,
reduce methane emissions, and enable the recovery of biogas for energy use, contributing to both environmental sustainability and
long-term operational cost savings in dairy industry. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
27
Industries
Current Policy Scenario Net Zero Scenario
2030 2050 2070 2030 2050 2070
Methane
Recovery
(%)
10
Textiles 70 70 70 90 100 100
Paper and Pulp 70 70 70 90 100 100
Fertiliser 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sugar70 70 70 90 100 100
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dairy70 70 70 90 100 100
Meat70 70 70 90 100 100
Fish Processing 0 0 0 0 0 0
While the common assumptions ensure methodological consistency, Current Policy Scenario
and Net Zero Scenario differ in the extent and pace of technology deployment, treatment
expansion and methane recovery. Under Current Policy Scenario, technological and treatment
improvements occur gradually, reflecting current policy commitments and incremental changes.
Methane recovery in domestic wastewater is limited at 10% and industry-specific recovery
values remain constant across projection years; composting continues to form a substantial
portion of solid waste processing and bio-methanation/bio-CNG scale more slowly.
The Net Zero Scenario is developed considering the goals, targets, and strategies defined in
Table 4.4 across the three subsectors to achieve deep emissions reductions by 2070. These
include stabilising per-capita waste generation, improving segregation, expanding treatment
infrastructure, enhancing performance of Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs), adopting methane
recovery technologies and transitioning industrial wastewater treatment systems.
Under Net Zero Scenario, more ambitious measures are adopted. These include universal
methane recovery from anaerobic systems in domestic wastewater by 2050 and in industrial
wastewater by 2040, a higher uptake of bio-CNG and bio-methanation, improved performance
of aerobic sewage treatment plants, large-scale faecal sludge treatment and a stabilisation of
per-capita waste generation by 2040. The Net Zero Scenario reflects a shift towards circularity
and energy recovery across all subsectors.
10 Methane Recovery (%) is excluded for the Fertiliser, Petroleum, and Fish processing industries due to a lack of data. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
28
Table 4.4: Sub-sectoral goals, targets, and strategies for the waste sector under the Net Zero Scenario
S. No.Sub-sectorResilience Goals TargetsStrategies
1
Solid Waste
Management
Transition
towards a circular
economy in the
country
Limit per capita waste
generation to 0.622
(kg/capita/day) post
2040
11
100% collection
efficiency and source
segregation by 2070
85% waste processing
by 2070
12
Strategy 1: Waste
Reduction and Source
Segregation
Strategy 2:
Strengthening the
Primary and Secondary
Collection and
Transportation System
Strategy 3: Processing
and Resource Recovery
Strategy 4: Scientific
Disposal of Waste in
Sanitary Landfills and
Bioremediation
2
Domestic
Wastewater
Promote integrated
wastewater
management
systems that
enhance treatment
efficiency,
methane recovery,
and energy
generation for a
circular economy
85% augmentation of
sewerage network by
2070
100% treatment of
collected wastewater
post 2040
74% of STPs/DeWATs
will utilise anaerobic
treatment systems by
2070
Strategy 1: Universal
access to scientific and
economical toilets
Strategy 2:
Strengthening safe
collection and transport
of wastewater to suitable
treatment facilities
11 Refer Annexure II– Part A for more details.
12 In Net Zero Scenario same targets are considered as in the Current Policy Scenario. The key difference is that in the Current Policy
Scenario, wet waste processing is primarily focused on composting, whereas in the Net Zero Scenario, the emphasis shifts to cleaner
solutions such as biomethanation and Bio-CNG, which not only manage waste more sustainably but also generate cleaner energy in
the form of electricity and Bio-CNG. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
29
S. No.Sub-sectorResilience Goals TargetsStrategies
100% performance
improvement of
aerobic wastewater
treatment plants,
methane recovery from
anaerobic wastewater
treatment plants/
DeWATs, and faecal
sludge treatment by
2050
Strategy 3: Maximise
treatment and reuse
of treated wastewater
and faecal sludge by
adopting efficient and
scientific treatment
technology with a
suitable methane capture
mechanism and use
of alternative energy
sources wherever
feasible
Strategy 4: Enhance
reuse, treatment,
and safe disposal of
wastewater. Reuse to
be preferred wherever
possible
Strategy 5: Public
Awareness
3
Industrial
Wastewater
Promote low-
carbon industrial
wastewater
management
through enhanced
methane recovery
and efficient
treatment systems
100% methane
recovery from
industrial wastewater
treatment by 2040
100% performance
improvement of
aerobic type industrial
wastewater treatment
plants by 2035
Strategy 1: Implement
Well-Managed Aerobic
Systems (≈0 MCF) for
Industrial Wastewater
Strategy 2: Enhance
Methane Recovery from
Industrial Wastewater
India can undertake climate actions based on these scenarios, to eventually embark on the Net
Zero Pathway (see Figure 4.5).
Under the Current Policy Scenario, waste sector emissions are projected to rise steadily to
222.0 MtCO₂e in 2050 and 266.0 MtCO₂e in 2070. This increase reflects the growth in
waste quantities and the limited methane recovery available under prevailing policies and
technologies.
In comparison, under the Net Zero Scenario, waste sector emissions are projected to reach 10.9
MtCO₂e by 2070, a decrease of 95.9% compared to the Current Policy Scenario projections.
Of the total estimated reductions, the industrial wastewater sub-sector is projected to contribute
the most, with a share of 49.4% (126.1 MtCO
2
e), followed by domestic wastewater at 36.8%
(93.9 MtCO
2
e), and solid waste management at 13.8% (35.2 MtCO
2
e). A detailed analysis of
emissions reductions by sector is presented in Table 4.5 below. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
30
Emissions (MtCO
2
e)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
CPS NZS CPS NZS
202020502070
Waste Sector GHG Emissions (MtCO
2
e)
Solid Waste Domestic Wastewater Industrial Wastewater
Figure 4.5: GHG emissions from waste sector in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) vs the
Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Emissions of 2020 are taken from BUR4 (based on IPCC Second Assessment Report (AR2)) and for projections
emissions factors are based on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
Table 4.5: GHG emissions reduction by waste sector under Net Zero ScenarioSub-sector2050 2070
Emissions (MtCO
2
e) in Current Policy Scenario
Solid Waste Management35.1 44.6
Domestic Wastewater 83.0 95.4
Industrial Wastewater103.9 126.1
Total222.0 266.0
Emissions (MtCO
2
e) in Net Zero Scenario
Solid Waste Management (A) 16.7 9.5
Solid Waste Disposal 13.3 11.3
Biological treatment of solid waste (Composting/
Biomethanation/Bio-CNG)
7.8 3.5
Incineration/Waste-to-Energy(4.4) (5.3)
Domestic Wastewater (B)27.9 1.4
Industrial Wastewater (C)0.0 0.0
Total Remaining Emissions (A+B+C)44.6 10.9
Emissions Reduction in Net Zero Scenario compared to Current Policy Scenario (%)
Solid Waste Management52.4% 78.8%
Domestic Wastewater66.4% 98.5%
Industrial Wastewater100% 100%
Total79.9% 95.9%
Note: ( ) denotes negative value. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
31
To move towards a Net Zero future, India will need to focus on continuously revising its
Net Zero strategies to address residual/remaining emissions from the waste sector. Residual
emissions are estimated to remain at 4.1% (10.9 MtCO₂e) under the Net Zero Scenario by
2070, compared to the Current Policy Scenario levels. Achieving a 100% reduction in waste
sector GHG emissions would require India to adopt emerging technologies and develop
additional mitigation strategies to close this gap by 2070.
It is crucial to acknowledge that the level of effort outlined in the Net Zero Scenario
requires adaptation measures, substantial policy support, enabling frameworks, overcoming
implementation barriers, capacity building, and financial support from city, state, and national
governments, and the international community.
A key pillar of this transition is to identify and mobilise substantial financial resources.
Implementing Net Zero strategies and adopting low-carbon development in the waste sector
will require a clear roadmap for investment and funding. The total cost of achieving Net Zero
emissions in this sector is expected to include significant capital for infrastructure development,
operational improvements, and scaling up advanced technologies, such as waste-to-energy
(bio-methanation), waste to bio-CNG plants, MRFs and composting technologies. Results and Insights from Scenario Analysis Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
33
5
CHALLENGES Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 34
The waste sector in India faces numerous challenges, particularly in managing waste streams
and associated policy frameworks and data. These challenges differ significantly, reflecting
disparities in infrastructure, awareness, and resource availability.
I. High Solid Waste Volumes
India continues to face growing pressure from the increasing volume and complexity of solid
waste generated. Rapid urbanisation and population growth have intensified waste generation,
while the availability of land for sanitary landfill development has steadily decreased. Existing
landfills are heavily overburdened, and constrained by high land costs and competing land-use
demands. As cities expand further, the challenge of safely managing rising waste volumes
is becoming increasingly complex, straining municipal systems and elevating environmental
risks.
II. Limited Solid Waste Segregation
Limited segregation at source remains one of the most significant barriers to effective waste
management. This hampers downstream processing, contaminates recyclable fractions, lowers
material recovery rates, and reduces the overall value of recyclables. Also, the adoption of
low-carbon technologies for waste processing usually requires pure-source feedstocks; this is
especially critical for processing organic waste.
III. Challenges in Solid Waste Collection, Transportation, and Handling
Infrastructure gaps hinder the implementation of comprehensive solid waste management
systems. Many cities still lack efficient and reliable systems for waste collection, handling,
and transportation. Collection coverage remains uneven in many areas, especially in dense
informal settlements, peri-urban fringes, and hilly terrain. Additionally, many cities lack well-
designed transfer stations, so waste is often transported through temporary or open dumping
sites. Manual handling remains high, increasing occupational risks and decreasing efficiency.
In terms of transportation, vehicles used for both collection and transportation are often poorly
maintained, leading to breakdowns, leachate leaks, and higher operating costs. The lack of
5
Challenges Challenges Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
35
dedicated vehicles for segregated streams leads to recombination of waste during collection. At
the same time, the lack of route optimisation and tracking causes inefficient crew deployment,
increased fuel consumption, and avoidable GHG emissions.
IV. Low Processing and Scientific Disposal of Solid Waste
With only about 39% of waste being scientifically processed, most urban areas rely on open
dumping or underperforming treatment facilities. These gaps in treatment capacity have led
to higher GHG emissions from the solid waste sub-sector. Although the informal sector plays
a vital role in recycling, its contributions remain largely unrecognised and poorly integrated
into formal systems.
V. Unmanaged Plastic Waste
Plastic waste adds another layer of complexity, with improper disposal contributing to river
and marine pollution, and the dispersal of microplastics adversely affects human and ecological
health. Public awareness and behavioural adoption of segregation and recycling remain limited,
further constraining progress towards a circular economy.
VI. Rural Waste Management Challenges
Rural areas face structural limitations in waste management due to the absence of basic
infrastructure. Most rural areas are yet to develop systems for organised waste collection,
source segregation, and transportation to disposal sites, resulting in unregulated dumping.
Financial constraints, low technical capacity, and limited awareness of sustainable waste
practices further hinder responsible management.
VII. Inadequate Wastewater Collection and Conveyance
Limited and ageing sewer networks make wastewater management challenging. Centralised sewer
systems remain expensive to build and maintain. Informal settlements, expanding due to unplanned
urbanisation, often lack sewer connections or septic tanks. As a result, untreated wastewater
frequently gets dumped into drains, rivers, and groundwater. In rural areas, the absence of drainage
and conveyance systems leads to wastewater stagnation and contamination of local water sources.
VIII. Insufficient Wastewater and Faecal Sludge Treatment Capacity
and Performance
Existing treatment infrastructure has not kept pace with rising wastewater volumes. Many
treatment plants are overburdened, under-performing, or non-functional due to poor design,
inadequate operation, and lack of maintenance. Limited faecal sludge treatment plants and
weak co-treatment mechanisms compound the issue. The shortage of trained personnel for
operating treatment systems further undermines performance.
IX. Behavioural and Social Barriers in Wastewater Management
Social, cultural, and behavioural barriers often hinder the adoption of improved sanitation and
wastewater systems. In regions facing water scarcity, pour-flush toilets become impractical, reducing Challenges Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
36
the feasibility of safe containment systems. Cultural barriers and social stigma around waste
handling reduce community uptake of sustainable domestic wastewater management solutions.
X. Industrial Wastewater Standards and Pollutants
Ineffective treatment systems with high Methane Correction Factors (MCFs) lead to increased
methane emissions, hindering industrial wastewater management. In addition, weak monitoring
techniques and gaps in sector-specific BOD/COD regulations often hinder efforts to reduce
eutrophication. The absence of widespread methane recovery mechanisms across industrial
treatment facilities results in missed opportunities for energy capture and reducing overall emissions.
XI. Policy Implementation Gaps
India has made significant progress in developing policies for waste and wastewater
management; however, institutional capacity, funding, and enforcement at the local level are
still being strengthened.
XII. Fragmented Data Systems and Poor Data Quality
A robust data ecosystem is crucial for effective planning; however, the current data remains
scattered across various agencies, including CPCB, MoHUA, NEERI, NITI Aayog, and
various central and state departments, each employing different methodologies and reporting
frameworks. The absence of extensive historical datasets, combined with limited long-term
policy planning, limits guidance for effective long-term planning and analysis.
XIII. Lack of Disaggregated and Region-Specific Data for Domestic
Wastewater
Limited data on indicators such as per capita waste generation, protein intake, disposal methods,
waste infrastructure, and biological treatment techniques remain a major challenge. This gap
reduces the accuracy of treatment estimates. Without region-specific information on waste
composition and treatment practices, national averages are used, which might not accurately
reflect local circumstances.
XIV. Weak Future Projection Models
Current projections of waste generation and treatment capacity rely heavily on extrapolated
trends and static parameters (e.g., fixed BOD values and methane recovery rates). These
models do not adequately incorporate anticipated changes in technology performance, industrial
efficiency, population growth, or climatic conditions.
XV. Financing Constraints in Waste Management
Financing remains a significant barrier to scaling waste management systems across India.
Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) often lack the financial resources to invest in waste infrastructure,
while existing grants are insufficient to meet long-term capital and O&M needs. Access to
climate finance, private investment, and innovative funding mechanisms is limited, slowing
the adoption of modern technologies and circular economy measures. 6
SUGGESTIONS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 38
Suggestions
India’s commitment to Net Zero emissions by 2070 involves eliminating waste sector emissions
through low-carbon waste management systems, cutting-edge technologies, and innovative
policies. Key strategies to enable the waste sector’s contribution to Net Zero are listed below:
A. Solid Waste Management
1. Waste Reduction and Source Segregation
i. Achieve the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM) 2.0 target of 100% source segregation
through community engagement using social media campaigns, workshops, and local
outreach activities.
ii. Limit per capita waste generation to 0.622 kg/capita/day post 2040, in line with
developed nation standards and United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)
circular economy benchmarks.
iii. Reduce waste at source by operationalising Extented Producer Responsibility (EPR),
tax incentives, eco-labelling, and development of eco-industrial parks focused on
recycling industries (CPHEEO, 2016).
2. Strengthening Primary and Secondary Collection and Transportation
i. Improve collection efficiency to 100% door-to-door waste collection, supported by
waste quantification surveys to identify leakages in line with SBM 2.0 guidelines.
ii. Strengthen primary collection by identifying the required workforce and vehicle
capacities and deploying compartmentalised vehicles for segregated waste streams
iii. Integrate technologies such as GPS-based route optimisation, digital tracking to
monitor bin filling, and RFID-enabled vehicles to enhance operational efficiency.
iv. Enhance secondary waste collection by upgrading transfer stations or storage depots,
especially where treatment and disposal sites are more than 15 miles from the city.
6 Suggestions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
39
v. Design transfer stations to minimise waste handling and, in cities with low segregation
levels, incorporate pre-sorting lines or decentralised Material Recovery Facility
(MRF) within these facilities.
vi. Strengthen plastic waste management by improving the collection of low-value
plastics, expanding recycling facilities, and preventing leakages through monitoring.
3. Processing and Resource Recovery
i. Align processing technology choices with region specific waste composition and
ensure adherence to standard norms to maintain efficiency, sustainability, and
scalability.
ii. Increasing biodegradable waste processing capacity by adopting bio-methanation and
composting, and prioritising bio-methanation in cities with high source segregation;
use feasibility assessments to determine centralised or decentralised approach for the
system. Support future Waste-to-Energy (WtE) initiatives, such as waste-to-green
hydrogen.
iii. Enhance waste processing to achieve 85% treatment of Muncipal Solid Waste (MSW)
using a combination of technologies, including Bio-CNG (20%), bio-methanation
(17%), composting (10%) for organic waste, WtE (15%) for non-recyclable dry and
mixed waste, and Material Recovery Facility (MRF) for recyclables. Ensure only
inert and process rejects fractions are sent to sanitary landfills.
iv. Integrate informal waste sector workers into formal Solid Waste Management (SWM)
systems through dedicated policies, capacity building initiatives, and partnerships at
MRFs and recycling facilities
v. Establish dedicated waste management zones in master plans to streamline waste
collection and processing operations and prevent ad-hoc or unplanned dumping.
4. Scientific Disposal and Bio-remediation
i. Develop sanitary landfill sites for the safe disposal of rejects from processing facilities
and inert waste. In rural areas, adopt a cluster-based approach to enable multiple
villages to share a single sanitary landfill.
ii. Equip sanitary landfills with Landfill Gas (LFG) capture systems to reduce emissions
from organic rejects and improve environmental performance.
iii. Ensure remediation of legacy waste in accordance with SBM 2.0 guidelines, for
cities with populations under one million.
iv. Ensure SWM facilities are resilient to climate risks such as floods, heat waves,
and extreme rainfall, which often affect operations. Suggestions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
40
B. Domestic Wastewater
1. Universal access to scientific and economical toilets
i. Align treatment and discharge pathways based on local geography, recognising that
India’s diverse landscapes require customised systems.
ii. Address operational challenges observed in many constructed toilets under SBM,
by improving septic tank cleaning services, ensuring adequate water availability for
regular use, and supporting households in undertaking repair and maintenance.
iii. Implement a two-pronged approach to achieve universal access and sustained
functionality:
Construction: identify households without individual toilets and support the
construction of scientifically designed, location-appropriate toilets, particularly
in areas where households rely on community toilets.
Retrofitting: upgrade unscientific systems by addressing design issues such as
septic tanks without soak pits, improperly spaced twin pits, missing Y-junctions,
faulty pipes or chambers, and direct discharge into open drains. Connect
households to sewer networks where feasible to ensure safe containment and
reduce pollution risks.
2. Safe collection and transfer to treatment facilities
i. Achieve 85% sewer network coverage by expanding centralised sewer systems
wherever technically feasible, while recognising that India’s diverse geography,
such as hilly terrain, sandy coastal soils, and low-density settlements, renders sewer
construction difficult or impractical in some areas.
ii. Adopt suitable alternatives where centralised systems are not viable, such as
well-designed on-site sanitation systems with scheduled desludging services or
decentralised sewerage systems for small habitations.
iii. Implement interception and diversion (I&D) systems in locations where
wastewater discharges into open drains, redirecting them to suitable treatment
facilities.
iv. Ensure that States and Local Bodies plan sewer expansion, on-site system upgrades,
and decentralised networks in a phased manner, aligning with local needs,
topographical constraints, and wastewater generation trends. Suggestions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
41
3. Maximising treatment and faecal sludge treatment with methane
recovery
i. Achieve 100% treatment of collected wastewater by 2050 while strengthening the
operation and maintenance of existing and upcoming aerobic Sewage Treatment
Plants (STPs) to ensure they function efficiently, maintain adequate treatment
volumes.
ii. Prioritise the adoption of anaerobic treatment systems with integrated methane
recovery infrastructure while expanding Sewage Treatment Plants (STP)/ Decentralised
Wastewater and Treatment System (DeWATs) capacity, to enable methane utilisation
for energy generation and support long-term emission reduction objectives. Ensure
that approximately 74% of sewage treatment capacity is anaerobic, with 100%
methane recovery by 2070.
iii. Target the remaining 26% of collected wastewater for treatment through aerobic
systems, ensuring efficient operations to achieve zero emissions during treatment.
iv. Prioritise faecal sludge management and treatment in areas dependent on on-site
sanitation systems, by establishing faecal sludge treatment plants (FSTPs) and
expanding co-treatment arrangements at nearby STPs. States should identify suitable
locations for establishing FSTPs and co-treatment facilities to ensure 100% faecal
sludge treatment by 2070.
4. Enhancing circularity through reuse and recycling
i. Promote reuse of treated wastewater for tertiary purposes like agriculture, construction,
and horticulture to decrease freshwater demand and promote water conservation,
especially in water-stressed regions across India.
ii. Address rural wastewater challenges by constructing covered drainage systems to
reduce disposal into low-lying areas and improve sanitation outcomes.
C. Industrial Wastewater
1. Implement well-managed aerobic systems (≈0 MCF)
i. Promote well-managed aerobic treatment systems to achieve a near-zero Methane
Correction Factor (≈0 MCF) by preventing the formation of anaerobic conditions in
industries using aerobic treatment technologies, such as fertilisers, petroleum, and
fish processing. Suggestions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
42
2. Enhance methane recovery from industrial wastewater
i. Achieve 100% methane recovery by 2040 from industries using anaerobic treatment
technologies to support emission reduction and meet energy needs sustainably.
ii. Upgrade existing wastewater treatment infrastructure and adopt advanced methane
recovery systems to improve overall performance.
iii. Support industries in reducing GHG emissions by maximising the recovery and
reuse of treatment by-products, such as utilising biogas produced from anaerobic
digestion, reusing treated wastewater, and reclaiming usable materials from the
treatment process.
D. Policy Framework
1. Strengthening Technical Expertise and Capacity Building
i. Strengthen technical capabilities of government officials and sector stakeholders to
fast-track waste management strategies, supported by training programmes.
ii. Ensure that training programmes cover data collection protocols, digital reporting
tools, waste categorisation techniques, and Quality Assurance/ Quality Control (QA/
QC) processes that strengthen the accuracy of reported values.
iii. Ensure long-term capacity-building investments to enable the adoption of innovative
approaches and improve overall institutional readiness.
2. Advancing Climate-based Participatory Budgeting and Sustainable
Procurement
i. Introduce climate-based participatory budgeting to enable communities to engage
directly in sustainable waste management projects.
ii. Promote sustainable procurement practices across public sector projects.
iii. Strengthen public ownership of projects through the involvement of local communities
in decision-making processes.
3. Enabling Private Sector Involvement
i. Encourage private investment in waste processing and recycling technologies,
sustainable packaging, and circular economy models.
ii. Scale up initiatives such as the SATAT scheme and GOBARdhan through increased
private sector participation.
iii. Promote eco-friendly products and sustainable business practices to strengthen
sustainable procurement and support the transition to a greener economy. Suggestions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
43
4. Strengthening Public Awareness and Engagement
i. Ensure active public participation through social media campaigns, government
platforms such as MyGov.in workshops, and educational programmes.
ii. Incorporate Mission LiFE into behavioural change initiatives to promote sustainable
practices such as waste segregation, mindful consumption, and eco-friendly behaviour.
5. Establishing a Robust Monitoring and Evaluation Framework
i. Establish a clear framework for monitoring and evaluating mitigation efforts for the
waste sector.
ii. Ensure application of effective monitoring methodologies that track expenditures
and measure climate and infrastructure service outcomes.
iii. Strengthen inter-agency and inter-departmental coordination to align waste-related
regulations, targets, and reporting requirements.
E. Strengthen Data Ecosystem
i. Establish a unified national waste data framework that integrates datasets from
CPCB, MoHUA, NITI Aayog, NEERI, and State Pollution Control Boards, using
standardised methodologies, timelines, and reporting formats, supported by a
centralised digital platform for real-time data collection. Integrate data transparency
and public disclosure mechanisms to enhance accountability and enable third-party
validation.
ii. Deploy remote sensing, IoT-based sensors, and automated monitoring systems for
continuous measurement of waste quantities, landfill emissions, leachate generation,
Sewage Treatment Plants (STP)/ Decentralised Wastewater and Treatment System
(DeWATs) performance, and industrial effluent trends.
iii. Mandate the tracking and reporting of disaggregated datasets on key indicators such
as per capita waste/wastewater generation, disposal methods, wastewater discharge
pathways and processing, etc., to improve planning accuracy.
iv. Conduct periodic region-specific waste and wastewater characterisation analysis to
enable understanding of local conditions and improve technology selection and planning.
v. Improve industrial waste data reporting by mandating annual, industry-specific
reports on wastewater generation, treatment technologies, Biological Oxygen
Demand (BOD) & Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) loads, etc.
vi. Promote collaboration between research institutions, civil society organisations,
and government agencies to co-develop analytical models and improve long-term
projection models and strategic planning. ANNEXURES Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 46
Annexure I: Quality
Control and Quality
Assurance for Emission
Estimation
Part A: Sectoral Quality Control (QC) and Quality Assurance (QA)
Internal quality control (QC) procedures applied to the emission estimates include generic
quality checks in terms of the calculations, processing, consistency, and clear recording and
documentation as follows:
Activity Data Selection: National-level datasets have been used to ensure relevance
across time and geography with consistent time-series data across all sub-sectors.
Calculation Verification: Spreadsheets have been reviewed to confirm the correct
application of formulas, activity data, and emission factors, ensuring error-free
computations.
Unit and Measurement Consistency: Parameters and emissions have been
cross-checked for accurate recording, proper and consistent unit conversions and
measurement throughout the reporting period.
Trend Analysis: Emission estimates have been analysed for consistency in national-
level trends over the assessment period. Major deviations were identified and
addressed when not attributable to changes in activity data or emission factors.
Transparent Documentation: All equations, input data, intermediate formulae, and
outputs have been clearly documented within spreadsheets for each sub-category.
Citation Compliance: All references to activity data and emission factors have been
cited in line with citation policies to ensure full traceability.
Data Gap Reporting: Included and excluded categories, along with the rationale
for assumptions used to address data gaps, have been transparently reported
(Annexure II). Annexure I: Quality Control and Quality Assurance for Emission Estimation Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
47
Part B: Specific QC/QA Procedures for Key Waste Sector Categories
A. Solid Waste Disposal
The First Order Decay (FOD) model has been utilised to estimate emissions,
incorporating historical solid waste disposal data from 1955 onward.
Historical data gaps in waste generation and composition have been addressed by
interpolating national datasets, ensuring alignment with the 2006 IPCC guidelines.
Per capita waste generation rates have been projected using growth trends from
datasets such as the India Energy Security Scenario (IESS), the Municipal Solid
Waste Management Manual 2016, and NEERI studies.
The national per capita MSW generation rate used in the estimates has been validated
against the IPCC default value of 0.12 tonnes/capita/year, confirming they fall within
the uncertainty range. Future MSW generation projections rely on average national
growth in per capita waste generation.
Improvements in waste management technologies, such as increased biological
treatment and material recovery, are expected to significantly reduce the volume of
waste sent to disposal sites/landfills by 2070.
B. Biological Treatment of Waste
Biological treatment methods such as composting and anaerobic digestion (bio-methanation),
have been assessed at the national level for municipal solid waste. Key considerations include:
National-level estimates of biologically treated waste, with data gaps addressed
through interpolation for missing years.
Incremental increases have been assumed in composting and bio-methanation
capacity, based on historical growth trends, technological advancements, and ongoing
government initiatives and policies.
The lack of disaggregated data on waste fractions and treatment efficiency,
particularly at regional levels, has contributed to variability in estimates. Uniform
waste composition data and treatment efficiencies have been applied across the
projection period.
C. Domestic Wastewater Treatment and Discharge
Population projections from NITI Aayog have been used to estimate wastewater
generation. Annexure I: Quality Control and Quality Assurance for Emission Estimation Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
48
The degree of utilisation for treatment systems, such as sewers, septic tanks, and
latrines, has been derived from historical datasets and projected incrementally to
2070.
Per capita BOD values have been assumed constant over the projection period, based
on BUR, NATCOM-III and IPCC guidelines.
It is assumed that all wastewater collected via sewer systems will be treated,
eliminating untreated discharges. It is also assumed that improvements in treatment
infrastructure will reduce emissions over time.
Wastewater treatment capacity is projected to increase in line with the current policies
and targets, with systems designed to prevent untreated discharge.
D. Industrial Wastewater Treatment and Discharge
Emission estimates for industrial wastewater have been based on a tier-1 approach,
covering eight industrial sectors using national averages for production and
wastewater generation.
Default values for treatment system efficiencies and methane recovery rates have
been sourced from NATCOM-III and BUR-III & IV and NEERI studies’ national
datasets.
Methane recovery is assumed to improve over time, particularly in energy-intensive
industries, contributing to lower overall emissions. However, it is assumed to remain
constant under the Current Policy Scenario estimates.
Limited availability of production and wastewater treatment data has introduced
variability. Static assumptions for wastewater generation per unit product and
treatment efficiencies may not fully reflect on-ground changes in industrial processes
over time. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 49
Annexure II:
Data Sources and
Assumptions
Part A: Data Sources and Assumptions for Solid Waste Management
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Activity Data
Population (P) As reported for the census years 1991,
2001 and 2011.
Population projections for selected
years between 2020 and 2070 have
been sourced from NITI’s dataset.
For the remaining years, population
estimates have been derived based on
decadal growth trends in the shared
dataset..
Census of India
NITI Aayog, Government of India
Mass of Waste
deposited (W)
a. Per Capita Waste Generation:
Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
generation for the period 2030 to
2070 has been estimated based on
population projections and the per
capita waste generation rates sourced
from IESS, the open-source tool
developed by NITI Aayog.
For intermediate years per capita
waste generation has been calculated
based on the 1.3% annual growth
rate specified in the SBM’s MSW
Management Manual 2016.
The Net Zero Scenario assumes per
capita waste generation at 0.622 kg/
capita/day post 2040, aligning with
developed nation standards and global
per capita waste generation under
circular economy scenario, reported
by the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP, 2024).
India Energy Security Scenario
(IESS, NITI Aayog)
Municipal Solid Waste Management
Manual (2016), Part II, Swachh
Bharat Mission, Ministry of Urban
Development, Government of India
(CPHEEO, 2016) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
50
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
b. Proportion of waste to disposal site
and waste processing:
Data on waste sent to landfills and for
waste processing (biological treatment
and waste incineration waste) is
available for the years 2005, 2020,
2021 and 2022.
For landfill projections, the annual
average growth (2014 to 2021)
was later applied to project landfill
volumes until 2070 under the Current
Policy Scenario.
Based on historical trends, current
policy parameters and benchmarks in
developed nations, it is projected that
by 2070, 15% of the waste generated
will be sent to landfills. Technological
advancements are expected to
significantly reduce waste rejects,
leading to efficient treatment of the
remaining 85%.
Projections for processing methods
like composting, bio-methanation,
incineration, and MRF were based on
their 2020 baseline shares.
Annual projections incorporate
incremental improvements in
technologies like bio-methanation,
composting, waste incineration/RDF,
and MRF.
NEERI
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2000, CPCB, 2014-15 (CPCB,
2015)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2015-16 (CPCB,
2015)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2016-17 (CPCB,
2017)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2017-18 (CPCB,
2018)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2018-19 (CPCB,
2019)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2019-20 (CPCB,
2020)
Consolidated Annual Review
Report on Implementation
of Municipal Solid Wastes
(Management and Handling) rules
2016, CPCB, 2020-21 (CPCB,
2021) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
51
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Emission Factors
Degradable
Organic
Carbon
(DOC)
DOC values for the organic fraction
of waste has been calculated using
IPCC default values for degradable
components (paper, rags, compostable
matter) along with reported waste
composition data across different time
periods.
Waste composition data for the years
1971, 1995, 2005 and 2020 is assumed
to be applicable for the periods of
1954-1994, 1995-2004, 2005-2018,
2019-2070 respectively.
Default DOC content values as per 2006
IPCC Guidelines:
Component
Default DOC Content
values (Wet waste)
Paper 40%
Rags 24%
Compostable
Matter
15%
Source: IPCC 2006
Default DOC content:
2006 IPCC Guidelines for National
GHG Inventories, Vol. 5, Chapter
2: Waste Generation, Composition
and Management Data, Table
2.5 (Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [IPCC], 2006)
Waste composition from 1971 to
2020:
Integrated Modelling of Solid
Waste in India (1999), CREED
Working Paper Series no 26 and
CPCB, 1999
CPCB and NEERI (2005), Table 2,
pg. 3 (CPCB, 2005)
CPHEEO Manual on Municipal
Solid Waste Management-2016,
Table 1.6 (CPHEEO, 2016)
Toolkit Preparing City Solid
Waste Action Plan under SBM 2.0
Managing Biodegradable Waste,
2022 Centre for Science and
Environment (CSE, 2022)
Decomposable
Fraction of
DOC (DOC
f
)
0.5
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Equation 3.7
(IPCC, 2006)
Methane
Correction
Factor (MCF)
MCF for unmanaged shallow landfill
with depth less than five metrer (0.4)
has been used in the Current Policy
Scenario estimates
Under Net Zero Scenario MCF of
managed landfill (1.0) has been used
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Table 3.1
(IPCC, 2006)
Fraction
of CH
4
in
generated
landfill gas
(F)
0.5
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Page 3.15
(IPCC, 2006)
Oxidation
factor (OX)0
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Table 3.2
(IPCC, 2006) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
52
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Methane
Recovery (R)0
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Section 3.2.3
(IPCC, 2006)
Reaction
Constant (k)0.84
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
3: Solid Waste disposal, Table 3.3
(IPCC, 2006)
IPCC default
Emission
Factors for
CH
4
and N
2
O
emissions
from
biological
treatment of
waste
Type of
Treatment
CH
4
Emission
Factors
(kg CH
4
/
tonne waste
treated)
N
2
O
Emission
Factors
(kg N
2
O/
tonne waste
treated)
Dry weight
basis
Wet weight
basis
Dry weight
basis
Wet weight
basis
Compost-
ing
10 4 0.60.24
Anaerobic
digestion
at biogas
facilities
(bio-meth-
anation)
2 0.8Negligible
IPCC 2006 Guidelines, Vol. 5. Chapter
4: Biological Treatment of Waste,
Table 4.1 (IPCC, 2006)
Part B: Data Sources and Assumptions for Domestic Wastewater
Treatment and Discharge
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Activity data
Population (P)
As reported for the census years
1991, 2001 and 2011.
Population projections for select
years between 2020 and 2070
has been sourced from NITI
Aayog. Year-wise estimates for the
remaining years has been derived
from decadal growth trends from
the dataset.
Census of India
NITI Aayog, Government of India Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
53
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Per capita BOD in
inventory year (g/
person/day)
Per capita BOD value (i.e. 41 g/
person/day) is assumed to be
constant from 2030 to 2070.
India Third National
Communication (NATCOM-
III) and Initial Adaptation
Communication, MoEFCC, GoI,
2023 (MoEFCC, 2023)
Degree of
utilisation of
treatment/
discharge pathway
or system, j, for
each income group
fraction i (Ti, j)
a. Degree of Utilisation:
Treatment and discharge pathways
are classified under the 2006 IPCC
Guidelines as septic tank, sewer,
latrine, others, and None (IPCC,
2006)
The degree of utilisation of
treatment/discharge pathway or
system is based on the latrine
facility dataset sourced from the
Census of India (2001 and 2011),
National Sample Survey (76
th
and
79
th
) Round (2018 and 2022-23),
and National Family Health Survey
(NFHS) (2005-06, 2014-15 and
2019-21)
Projections until 2070 were made
using an annual average increase
methodology based on historical
trends from 2001 to 2022. By
calculating the average annual
increase required to achieve the
target sewer network coverage, the
share was incrementally adjusted
each year.
b. Sewage Treatment Plants (STP)
Status:
STP capacity data is available for
the years 2008-09, 2014-15, and
2020.
The degree of utilisation of
treatment systems is estimated for
2005 to 2010, 2016 to 2018, 2021,
and 2022.
Methane emissions from domestic
wastewater treatment are estimated
at 10%, based on NEERI data sets,
and are assumed to remain constant
under the Current Policy Scenario
through 2070.
Latrine Facility Datasets:
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment
and Discharge, table 6.5 (IPCC,
2006)
Census of India – Availability
and type of latrine facility: 2001
– 2011
Drinking Water, Sanitation,
Hygiene, and Housing Condition,
NSS 76th Round (2018), Page 33
(MoSPI, 2018)
Comprehensive Annual Modular
Survey, NSS 79th Round (2022-
2023) (MoSPI, 2023).
Availability of Toilets at
the Household Level in
India: Evidence from NFHS
(NirmalKumar & Sivasankar,
2024)
Status of Sewage Treatment Plant
(STP) data
2008-09:
CPCB (2008): Evaluation of
Operation and Maintenance of
Sewage Treatment Plants in
India-2007. Information referred
from Table 2.1, Table 2.2 and
Chapter 3 (CPCB, 2008)
CPCB (2009): Status of Water
Supply, Wastewater Generation
and Treatment in Class-I Cities
& Class-II Towns of India.
Information referred from Table
3.4, Table 3.5, Table 3.6, Table
3.11, Table 3.12, Table 3.18,
Table 3.19 (CPCB, 2009) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
54
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
(i) Piped sewer:
Operational STP capacity is
identified from CPCB’s STP
performance evaluation reports.
STPs are categorised as aerobic
and anaerobic based on treatment
technology used.
Installed but non-operational STPs
are considered ‘collected and not
treated’.
Percentages from these three values
are estimated from 2005-2022
and the corresponding percentage
multiplied with ‘piped sewer’ data
to estimate emissions from each
discharge pathway.
(ii) Projection: Sewage Treatment
Plants (STP) Status (2023-2070)
A decremental approach has been
used to project the percentage of
sewers with collected and untreated
waste from 2023 to 2070, aiming
for 0% untreated sewage by 2070.
Historical data from 2008-2009
and 2014-15 has been analysed
to calculate the average annual
reduction in untreated sewage. This
linear decremental rate was applied
year by year, ensuring steady
progress.
The technology split between
aerobic and anaerobic systems, as
in the baseline year, is assumed
to be constant over the projection
period due to historical variability.
CPCB (2010): Annual report
2009-10. Information referred
from Table 6.2, Table 6.3
CPCB (2013): Performance
Evaluation of STPs under NCRD.
Information referred from Table
2, Table 3, Table 4, Table 5, Table
8, Table 14, Annexure – IV
2014-15:
CPCB (2015): Inventorization of
STPs. Information referred from
Table 3 and Chapter 4
CPCB: Monitoring of STPs in
Karnataka 2014-15. Information
referred on STPs throughout the
document
2020:
National Inventory of Sewage
Treatment Plants, March 2021,
CPCB
Fraction of
population in
income group i
(Ui)
The values of the fractions of
population in income groups is
available from 2005 to 2070.
2005-2010:
Population Projections for India
and States 1996-2016 (Registrar
General, India–Ministry of Home
Affairs); Table 10–Page no. 71–Total
Population, Table 16–Page no. 89–
Urban Population Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
55
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
2011-2019:
Population Projections for India &
States 2011-2036 (Table no. 8, 9 and
10), Ministry of Health & Family
Welfare, (Downloaded from Census
of India official website)
2020-2070:
NITI Aayog, Government of India.
Organic
Component
removed as
Sludge, kg BOD/
year (BOD)
0
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment
and Discharge, Equation 6.1 (IPCC,
2006)
Correction factor
for additional
industrial BOD
discharged into
sewers (I)
Based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines,
the default values of “I”, for collected
and uncollected wastewater, have been
used, for assessment.
“I” for Collected
Wastewater
“I” for
Uncollected
Wastewater
1.25
1
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6–Wastewater treatment and
discharge, Equation 6.3 (IPCC, 2006)
Amount of CH
4
recovered in
inventory year (R)
0
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge, equation 6.1 (IPCC, 2006)
Annual per
capita protein
consumption, kg/
person/year
Per capita protein consumption
values are sourced from the NSSO
report on nutritional intake in India,
2011-12.
As updated year-wise values are
unavailable, the 2011-12 figures
have been applied for the baseline
year 2020.
Post 2047, the per capita protein
(28.24 kg/person/year) consumption
is projected to meet the suggested
levels outlined in the Dietary
Guidelines for Indians 2024
(ICMR-National Institution of
Nutrition), assuming India achieves
the required protein intake by that
year. This value is assumed to be
constant until 2070.
2011-12:
Nutritional Intake in India
2011-12. The NSSO survey
was conducted over two rounds
(or schedules). Values used are
average values based on findings
across the two schedules in
the NSSO survey 2011-12 as
indicated in Table 3A & Table 3B
(MoSPI, 2014)
2019-21:
National Family Health Survey
(NFHS-5), 2019-2021 (Ministry
of Health and Family Welfare,
2021) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
56
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
The weighted average of protein
intake value is calculated using the
proportion of vegetarian and non-
vegetarian population as per the
NFHS-5 Report, 2019-2021.
Per capita protein consumption
between 2020 and 2047 has been
estimated using the CAGR.
2024:
Dietary guidelines by Indian
Medical Council Research
(ICMR), 2024
Emission factors
Maximum
CH
4
producing
capacity, kg CH
4
/
kg BOD (Bo)
0.6
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6–Wastewater treatment and
discharge, Table 6.2 (IPCC, 2006)
Methane
correction factor
(MCF
j
)
The following assumptions have
been made:
Untreated wastewater collected via
sewers may remain in ‘stagnant
sewers’ or be ‘discharged into
aquatic environments. As the
quantity discharged to water bodies
is unknown, the entire volume of
untreated wastewater is accounted
for under ‘discharge to aquatic
environments.
Under the Current Policy Scenario,
untreated sewage (collected but
not treated) is projected to reach
0% by 2040 in India. This phased
reduction is expected to eliminate
emissions from untreated sewage.
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater treatment and
discharge, Table 6.3 (IPCC, 2006)
Treatment/ discharge
pathway or system (j)
MCF
j
Anaerobic reactor 0.80
Centralised, aerobic
treatment plant not well
managed, overloaded
0.30
Centralised, aerobic
treatment plant well
managed
0.00
Stagnant Sewer 0.50
Sea, lake, or river discharge0.10
Flowing Sewer (open/
closed)
0.00
Septic system 0.50 Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
57
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Treatment/ discharge
pathway or system (j)
MCF
j
Latrine–Dry climate,
groundwater table lower
than latrine, communal
(many users)
0.50
Latrine (Dry climate,
groundwater table lower
than latrine, small family
(3-5 members))
0.10
Discharge to aquatic
environments
0.11
Fraction of
Nitrogen in
Protein (F
NPR
)
0.16
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge, equation 6.8 and table
6.11 (IPCC, 2006)
Factor for non-
consumed protein
added to the
wastewater (F
NON-
CON
)
1.4
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge, table 6.11 (IPCC, 2006)
Factor for
industrial and
commercial co-
discharged protein
into the sewer
system (F
IND-COM
)
1.25
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge, table 6.11 (IPCC, 2006)
Nitrogen removed
with sludge
(N
SLUDGE
)
0
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge, equation 6.8 (IPCC, 2006) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
58
Part C: Data Sources and Assumptions for Industrial Wastewater
Treatment and Discharge
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Activity Data
Industrial
Production (Pi)
Fertilisers, Textiles, Paper and Pulp, and
Petroleum
Data for these industries is available for
the period spanning 2020 to 2070.
Sugar, Meat, Dairy, and Fish Processing:
The data for these industries is available
for the period spanning 2005 to 2022.
Industrial production until 2070
was projected using the following
methodology:
GDP and GVA Data Preparation:
Quarterly real GDP (at 2011-12 prices)
was available for 2011-12 to 2023-24
(henceforth referred as ‘P
2
’) but not
available from 2005-06 to 2011-12
(henceforth referred as ‘P
1
’).
Real gross value added (GVA) at 2011-12
prices for 2005-06 to 2023-24 (henceforth
referred as ‘P
n
’) was obtained from the
Economic Survey 2023-24: Statistical
Appendix.
Since, GVA is the total of GDP and
subsidies and taxes (s.t), subtracting GDP
from GVA for P
2
years provided the
subsidies and taxes for the said years. The
s.t was correlated with GVA for the years of
P
2
and back forecasted for the years of P
1
.
Since,
(GVA
y
= GDP
y
+ s.t
y
),
where,
GVA
y
is gross value added for a
particular year
GDP
y
is gross domestic for a particular
year
s.t
y
is subsidies and taxes for a particular
year
y is any particular year
Fertilisers, Textiles, Paper and
Pulp, and Petroleum:
NITI Aayog, Government of
India
Sugar:
National Food Security Mission,
Ready Reckoner, Crop Unit-
IV, Statistics on Cotton, Jute
& Sugar, Page 69 (Ministry of
Agriculture and Family Welfare,
2019)
Annexure XXIX, Status Paper
on Sugarcane, Directorate
of Sugarcane Development,
Ministry of Agriculture
(Directorate of Sugarcane
Development, 2015)
Directorate of Sugar, Department
of Food and Public Distribution,
Ministry of Consumer Affairs,
Food and Public Distribution,
GoI (Department of Food and
Public Distribution, 2018)
Department of Food and
Public Distribution, Ministry
of Consumer Affairs, Food and
Public Distribution, GoI, Annual
Report 2023-24, Page 163
Dairy:
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics–2019, Department of
Animal Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, Government of India Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
59
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Thus,
s.t
y
= GVA
y
– GDP
y
Using this method, the real GDP at 2011-
12 prices was obtained for the years of P
1
,
thereby, ensuring that the real GDP estimates
at 2011-12 prices was available for all years
of P
n
. The actual quantum of meat, dairy
and fish production was available from NITI
Ayog was available for P
n
.
The elasticity of production (e) of each year
(y) in the period of P
n
was calculated using
the following formula:
11
11
yy y
y
yy y
QQ G
e
GG Q
−−
−−
−
= ×
−
where,
e
y
is the elasticity of production for a
particular year
Q
y
is the quantum of production in the
particular year
Q
y-1
is the quantum of production in the
previous year
G
y
is the GDP in the particular year
G
y-1
is the GDP in the previous year
Average elasticity of production (e
avg
) was
calculated which was used to forecast the
production values until 2070 based on the
GDP forecast until 2070 obtained from NITI
Ayog. The following formula was used for
this purpose.
( )
1
11
1
y
y avgy yy
y
Q
Q e GG Q
G
−
−−
−
= × ×− +
Basic Animal Husbandry &
Fisheries Statistics–2017,
Table 1, Department of
Animal Husbandry, Dairying
& Fisheries, Ministry of
Agriculture, Government of
India
Department of Animal
Husbandry and Dairying
Ministry of Fisheries, Animal
Husbandry and Dairying,
Government of India, Annual
Report 2023-24, Page 5
Meat:
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics- 2023, Page 20,
Department of Animal
Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, GoI
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics- 2019, Table 29,
Department of Animal
Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, GoI
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics- 2014, Table 19,
Department of Animal
Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, GoI
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics- 2012, Table 22,
Department of Animal
Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, GoI
Basic Animal Husbandry
Statistics- 2006, Table 49,
Department of Animal
Husbandry, Dairying &
Fisheries, GoI Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
60
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
State-wise Meat Production,
Handbook of Statistics on Indian
States, Reserve Bank of India
Fish Processing
Handbook on Fisheries
Statistics 2014, Table A-2: Fish
Production by State/ Union
Territories 2000-01 to 2013-14
Handbook on Fisheries Statistics
2018, Section A–3: State / Union
Territory wise Fish Production
2011-12 to 2017-18
Handbook on Fisheries Statistics
2020, Table 1.2. State/UT
wise Inland and Marine Fish
production in India for the
period 2015-16 to 2019-20
Handbook on Fisheries Statistics
2022, Table 1.1. Inland and
Marine Fish production in India
for the period 2019-2021
Handbook on Fisheries Statistics
2023, Table 1.2. Inland and
Marine Fish production in India
for the year 2022
GDP Data:
Economic Survey of India,
2023-24, Statistical Appendix,
Government of India (Ministry
of Finance, 2024)
Wastewater
generated,
m
3
/tonnes
product (Wi)
Constant values of wastewater generated
per tonne of product have been applied for
2030-2070 for all the industry sectors due
to lack of year-on-year data.
For the textile sector, wastewater
generation standards were sourced from
CPCB standards for the discharge of
environmental pollutants.
Industry-wise wastewater generated per
tonne of product values used are provided
below:
Fertilisers, Sugar, Petroleum,
Dairy, Meat, Pulp and Paper, and
Fish Processing:
India Fourth Biennial Update
Report (BUR-IV), 2024, Table
2.32 (MoEFCC, 2024)
Textiles:
General Standards for Discharge
of Environmental Pollutants
Part-A: Effluents, CPCB (CPCB,
n.d.) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
61
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Industry
Wastewater generation
(m
3
/tonne of product)
Fertiliser31
Sugar1.0
Petroleum0.4
Textiles120
Dairy6
Meat13
Pulp & Paper 143
Fish Processing 13
Chemical
oxygen
demand
(CODi)
Constant values of Chemical Oxygen
Demand (CODi) have been used for
2030-2070 for all industry sectors due to
lack of year-on-year data
The COD value for textiles was assumed
to be same as that of tanneries, as per
NATCOM-III, due to the lack of specific
data. This approach ensures consistency
in emission estimation, given the
similarity in organic load characteristics
of their wastewater.
Industry
COD
(kg COD/m
3
)
Fertiliser3.00
Sugar6.20
Petroleum0.50
Textiles3.10
Dairy4.00
Meat4.00
Pulp & Paper 7.00
Fish Processing 2.50
Fertilisers, Sugar, Petroleum,
Dairy, Pulp and Paper, Meat and
Fish Processing:
India Fourth Biennial Update
Report (BUR-IV), 2024, Table
2.32 (MoEFCC, 2024)
Textiles:
India’s Third National
Communication and Initial
Adaptation Communication,
2023, Table 2.31 (MoEFCC,
2023)
Organic
component
removed as
sludge (Si)
0.35
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment
and Discharge, Equation Number
6.4 (IPCC, 2006)
Amount
of CH
4
recovered (Ri)
0
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment
and Discharge, Equation Number
6.4 (IPCC, 2006) Annexure II: Data Sources and Assumptions Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste
62
Activity Data/
Emission Factor
Methodological ApproachData Source
Emission Factors
Methane
correction
factor (MCFj)
Constant values of MCFj have been used
for 2020-2070 for all industry sectors due
to lack of year-on-year information.
As the textile and tannery industries
both generate wastewater with similar
treatment characteristics, the MCF value
for emission estimation for both these
industries is assumed to be the same , as
per NATCOM-III, due to the absence of
industry-specific data.
Methane Recovery (%) considered in the
industrial wastewater calculations i.e.
70-75% across for Sugar, Meat, Paper
and Pulp, Dairy, and textiles industries
(overall 45%) is based on NEERI data,
assumed to be constant until 2070 under
Current Policy Scenario.
Methane recovery data is not available for
fertiliser, Fish processing and petroleum
industries.
IndustryMCF
Fertiliser0.3
Sugar0.8
Petroleum0.3
Textiles0.8
Dairy0.5
Meat0.8
Pulp & Paper0.1
Fish Processing0.3
Fertilisers, Sugar, Petroleum,
Textiles, Dairy, Pulp and Paper,
Meat and Fish Processing:
India Fourth Biennial Update
Report (BUR-IV), 2024, Table
2.32 (MoEFCC, 2024)
Meat:
2006 IPCC guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas
Inventories, Vol. 5, Chapter
6: Wastewater Treatment and
Discharge (IPCC, 2006)
Maximum
CH
4
producing
capacity (Bo)
0.25
2006 IPCC Guidelines, Vol. 5,
Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment
and Discharge, Equation Number
6.5 (IPCC, 2006) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 63
Annexure III:
Global Warming
Potential of
Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse Gas
100- year Global Warming
Potential (GWP) – Second
Assessment Report (SAR), 1995
100- year Global Warming
Potential (GWP) – Fifth
Assessment Report (AR5), 2014
Carbon dioxide CO
2
11
Methane CH
4
2128
Nitrous oxide N
2
O310265
Source: IPCC Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 64
Annexure IV:
Grid Emission
Factors
A “grid emission factor” refers to a CO
2
emission factor (tCO
2
e/MWh) which will be associated
with each unit of electricity provided by an electricity system (Central Electricity Authority,
2021). The following table presents the emission factors (estimated by NITI Aayog) used
for estimating the impacts of electricity generation from the processing of waste on overall
emissions in Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario.
ScenarioUnit2050 2070
Current Policy Scenario (CPS)
tCO
2
e/(MWh)
0.33 0.07
Net Zero Scenario (NZS)0.26 0.00
Source: NITI Aayog Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste 65
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Recommendations-Indore.pdf Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Waste (Vol. 8)
VOL. 8
SECTORAL INSIGHTS:
WASTE
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO