Choose Report Type
Publication Date
Report Upload
Download
(7.18 MB)
vertical
Energy
PDF Text
VOL. 11
SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS
OF TRANSITION
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
VOL. 11
SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS
OF TRANSITION
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO Copyright © NITI Aayog, 2026
NITI Aayog
Government of India,
Sansad Marg, New Delhi–110001, India
Suggested Citation
NITI Aayog. (2026). Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications
of Transition (Vol. 11)
Available at: https://niti.gov.in/publications/division-reports
Disclaimer
1. This document is not a statement of policy by the National Institution for
Transforming India (hereinafter referred to as NITI Aayog). It has been prepared
by the Green Transition, Energy, Climate, and Environment Division of NITI Aayog
under various Inter-Ministerial Working Groups (IMWGs) constituted to develop Net
Zero pathways for India.
2. Unless otherwise stated, NITI Aayog, in this regard, has not made any representation
or warranty, express or implied, as to the completeness or reliability of the
information, data, findings, or methodology presented in this document. While due
care has been taken by the author(s) in the preparation of this publication, the
content is based on independently procured information and analysis available at
the time of writing and may not reflect the most current policy developments or
datasets.
3. The assertions, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report are those
of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NITI Aayog or the
Government of India, unless otherwise mentioned. As such, NITI Aayog does not
endorse or validate any of the specific views or policy suggestions made herein by
the author(s).
4. NITI Aayog shall not be liable under any circumstances, in law or equity, for any
loss, damage, liability, or expense incurred or suffered as a result of the use of or
reliance upon the contents of this document. Any reference to specific organisations,
products, services, or data sources does not constitute or imply an endorsement
by NITI Aayog. Readers are encouraged to independently verify the data and
conduct their analysis before forming conclusions or taking any policy, academic,
or commercial decisions. SCENARIOS TOWARDS
VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF
TRANSITION
(VOL. 11) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition viiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Authors and
Acknowledgement
Chairperson
Dr. V. K. Paul
Member, NITI Aayog
Leadership
Sh. Suman Bery
Vice Chairman, NITI Aayog
Sh. B. V. R. Subrahmanyam
CEO, NITI Aayog
Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj
Programme Director, Green Transition,
Energy & Climate Change Division,
NITI Aayog
Sh. Surender Mehra
Advisor, Environment and Climate Change,
NITI Aayog
Core Modelling Team
NITI Aayog
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist,
NITI Aayog
Dr. Anjali Jain
Consultant Grade-2, NITI Aayog
Sh. Nitin Bajpai
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Authors
NITI Aayog
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist,
NITI Aayog
Ms. Aastha Singh
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Knowledge Partners
Sh. Chandra Bhushan
CEO, International Forum for Environment,
Sustainability & Technology (iFOREST)
Dr. Srestha Banerjee
Director, iFOREST
Sh. Nitin Bassi
Fellow and Team Lead, Council on Energy,
Environment and Water (CEEW)
Ms. Akanksha Tyagi
Programme Lead, CEEW
Ms. Parineet Kaur Chowdhury
Research Analyst, CEEW
Ms. Ulka Kelkar
Executive Director, World Resources Institute
(WRI), India
Ms. Gauri Atre
Senior Program Associate, WRI, India
Sh. Arpan Golechha
Program Manager, WRI, India
Ms. Payden
Acting Representative to India,
World Health Organisation (WHO)
Dr. Pushpa Chaudhary Deo
Team Leader (RMNCAH), WHO
Dr. Richa Kandpal
SAMARTH National Officer, WHO viiiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Dr. Nitish Dogra
Consultant, WHO
Dr. Sandeep Thacker
Consultant, UNICEF, India
Peer Reviewers
Sh. Priyavrat Bhati
Program Lead, Environment and
Climate Change, NITI Aayog
Sh. Dilip Singh
Programme Specialist, UNDP, India
Ms. Somya Bhatt
Programme Analyst, UNDP, India
Ms. Srishti Dewan
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Working Group Members
Ms. Gitanjali Gupta
Program Director, NITI Aayog
Sh. Neelesh Kumar Shah
Joint Secretary, Ministry of Environment,
Forest & Climate Change
Sh. Nilambuj Sharan
Senior Economic Adviser, Ministry of Skill
Development and Entrepreneurship
Sh. Rohit Mathur
Joint Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum and
Natural Gas
Sh. Rajib Sen
Program Director, NITI Aayog
Dr. Sumita Ghosh
Officer on Special Duty, Health, NITI Aayog
Dr. Anuradha Guru
Economic Adviser, Department of Economic
Affairs, Ministry of Finance
Ms. Santosh Agarwal
Deputy Director General, Ministry of Coal
Ms. Anshu Singh
Deputy Director General, Ministry of Tribal
Affairs
Sh. Amit Verma
Joint Secretary, Ministry of Commerce
(Former Director, NITI Aayog)
Sh. Shard Sapra
Scientist F & Director, Ministry of
Environment, Forest & Climate Change
Dr. Shikha Anand
Director, Ministry of Labour
and Employment
Sh. Rakesh Kumar
Joint Director, Ministry of Micro, Small &
Medium Enterprises
Sh. V. Ramakrishnan
Deputy Director, Ministry of Micro, Small &
Medium Enterprises
Sh. Chandra Bhushan
Chief Executive Officer, iFOREST
Ms. Sunita Narain
Director General, Centre for Science and
Environment
Sh. Karthik Ganesan
Fellow, CEEW
Ms. Ulka Kelkar
Executive Director, WRI, India
Dr. K S Reddy
Honorary Distinguished Professor, Public
Health Foundation of India (PFHI)
Sh. Aakash Shrivastav
Additional Director, National Centre for
Disease Control
Ms. Nataliya Kulichenko
Lead Energy Specialist, World Bank
Dr. Soumya Swaminathan
Chairperson, M.S. Swaminathan Research
Foundation ixScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Dr. Anandajit Goswami
Research Lead, Senior Research Fellow,
Ashoka Centre For People Centric Energy
Transition (ACPET)
Dr. Anshika Singh
Former Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Editors
Ms. Aastha Manocha
Editor and Communication Consultant
(Independent)
Ms. Rishu Nigam
Communication Specialist (Independent) xiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Contents
List of Figures xiii
List of Tables xiii
List of Abbreviations xv
Executive Summary xvii
1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Context 2
1.2 Institutional Mechanism to examine the issue: Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Social
Implications of Transition 4
2. Land and Water: The Resource Context...................................................................................7
2.1 Land & Water Use in different scenarios 9
2.2 Spatial aspects of transition 12
2.3 Challenges 13
2.4 Suggestions 14
3. Livelihood, employment and migration aspect....................................................................17
3.1 State-Level Economic Structures and Their Implications for Employment and Migration 19
3.2 Fossil-fuel Dependence and Vulnerability 21
3.3 Gender Dimension 26
3.4 Projections: The Shape of Workforce Transition 26
3.5 Challenges and Suggestions 27
4. Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition..............................................31
4.1 Vulnerability and Impacts of Climate Change and Energy Transition on Health 33
4.2 Current Policy Landscape 36
4.3 Challenges and Suggestions 38
5. Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition............................................................41
5.1 Government Initiatives 43
5.2 Challenges and Suggestions 45 xii
Contents Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
6. Annexures.....................................................................................................................................51
Annexure A: Land Use Factor 52
Annexure B: Water Use Factor 53
Annexure C: Employment in Fossil-Fuel Linked Manufacturing Industries 54
7. References....................................................................................................................................55 xiiiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
List of Figures
List of Tables
Figure 2.1Land requirement under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero
Scenario (NZS)
10
Figure 2.2Water requirement under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero
Scenario (NZS)
11
Figure 2.3Solar capacity in various states in 2024 - 202513
Figure 3.1Districts dependent on fossil-fuel economy22
Table 3.1 Categorisation of states based on economic and employment structures 21
Table 3.2 Workforce dependent on coal mining 23
Table 3.3 Ratio of direct and induced jobs in coal mining areas 24
Table 3.4 State-wise workforce dependent on coal-based thermal power plant generation 24
Table 4.1 Heat Island impact in major cities 34 xvScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
ABDM Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission
APV Agri-Photo Voltaic
ASI Annual Survey of Industries
ASUSE Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises
AVISTEP Avian Sensitivity Tool for Energy Planning
BEE Bureau of Energy Efficiency
CAP Common Alerting Protocol
CEA Central Electricity Authority
CIL Coal India Limited
CO
2
Carbon Dioxide
COPD Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
CPCB Central Pollution Control Board
CPS Current Policy Scenario
CREA Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
CSR Corporate Social Responsibility
DRE Decentralised Renewable Energy
ESIC Employee State Insurance Corporation
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FPO Farmer Producer Organisations
GVA Gross Value Added
HAP Heat Action Plan
IBAT Integrated Biodiversity Assessment Tool
ICAP India Cooling Action Plan
ICED India Climate & Energy Dashboard
IDSP Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme
IEA International Energy Agency
IEEFA Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC-AR5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report
IPHS Indian Public Health Standards
IREDA Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency
LCOE Levelised Cost of Energy
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
List of Abbreviations xvi
List of Abbreviations Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
M&E Monitoring and Evaluation
Mha Million hectares
Mission LiFEMission Lifestyle for Environment
MNRE Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
MoEFCC Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change
MoHUA Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs
MoSPI Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
NABARD National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development
NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change
NCAP National Clean Air Programme
NDMA National Disaster Management Authority
NHM National Health Mission
NPCCHH National Programme on Climate Change and Human Health
NSVA Net State Value Added
NZS Net Zero Scenario
PCF Product Carbon Footprint
PIB Press Information Bureau
PLFS Periodic Labour Force Survey
PM JANMAN Pradhan Mantri Janjati Adivasi Nyaya Maha Abhiyan
PM-ABHIM Pradhan Mantri Ayushman Bharat Health Infrastructure Mission
PM-JAY Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana
PMKSY Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana
PMMVY Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana
PMUY Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana
PPA Power Purchase Agreements
RE Renewable Energy
REIPPPP Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme
RESCO Renewable Energy Service Companies
SAF Sustainable Aviation Fuel
SAPCC State Action Plan on Climate Change
SBTi Science Based Target initiative
SCGJ Skill Council for Green Jobs
SHG Self Help Group
TB Tuberculosis
ToR Terms of Reference
TPP Thermal Power Plants
UJALA Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All
VGF Viability Gap Funding
WHO World Health Organisation xviiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Executive Summary
India is currently at a critical juncture in its developmental trajectory, navigating the dual
ambitions of achieving the status of ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047 and reaching Net Zero by 2070.
This transition occurs against the backdrop of intensifying climate risks, with India ranking
among the countries most affected by extreme weather events. These climate impacts
disproportionately burden vulnerable populations, making a socially informed approach not
merely an environmental goal but a foundational requirement for sustainable and resilient
development. A carefully sequenced, policy-driven transition is therefore required to address
social considerations emerging from both climate change and the expansion of low carbon
infrastructure. This report frames low-carbon development as a transformative opportunity
for socio-economic realignment, integrating technological innovation with equitable growth
outcomes.
Key Insights:
Power sector and green hydrogen land and water requirements are substantial under both
scenarios: Under the Current Policy Scenario, which assumes continuation of policies and trends
as of 2023, land requirements grow 6 times over 2030 reaching 4.2 million hectares by 2070
(equivalent to 7.5% of India’s ~56 Mha wasteland capacity). While in a Net Zero Scenario, which
assumes a strong policy push for renewables, the land requirements grow 7 times reaching
5.92 million hectares (equivalent to 11% of India’s wasteland capacity). Under both scenarios,
the water consumption in proportion grows only by 1.7 times in 2050 over 2030 levels due to
higher renewables, which has lower water requirements. Further, water requirement declines by
2070, largely owing to technological improvements and efficiency gains post 2050.
As proportion of wasteland, renewable deployment on 7.5%-11% of wasteland seems modest, it
masks community dependence and livelihood realities: Lands officially classified as wastelands
are often used for grazing, fuelwood collection, and rural livelihoods, supporting pastoralism
and cultural practices. Diversion of wastelands for renewable projects needs to be carefully
managed.
Energy transition creates a geographic mismatch between fossil-fuel dependent regions and
renewable deployment zones: States like Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha are heavily
dependent on mining and thermal power generation. Renewable energy deployment, however,
is concentrated in other states with 75% of installed solar and wind capacity in Rajasthan,
Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. This geographic mismatch means fossil-
fuel sustained communities face economic dislocation while renewable rich states experience
intensifying competition for land and water resources among agriculture, energy infrastructure, xviii
Executive Summary Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
and local livelihoods. Further, renewable expansion are largely located in arid and semi-arid
areas that are water stressed.
Energy transition also has implications on employment: Over 150 districts across India are
significantly dependent on fossil-fuel supply chains, directly or indirectly sustaining livelihoods
for nearly one-third of India’s population. It is observed that informal workers are at least twice
as many as workers directly employed in coal mining, coal thermal power plants, and fossil-
fuel-linked manufacturing and downstream industries.
Energy transition increases employment in the Net Zero Scenario compared to the Current
Policy Scenario while reshaping job composition: Under the Current Policy Scenario, energy
sector employment remains stable at around 6 million by 2050, with coal, oil, gas, and
electricity accounting for the bulk of employment. Under the Net Zero Scenario, energy sector
employment increases to about 7 million by 2050, around 1 million higher than under Current
Policy Scenario, reflecting a change in the composition of energy jobs toward clean technology
manufacturing and renewable energy infrastructure for both skilled and unskilled workers.
Beyond the energy sector, the Net Zero Scenario generates large economy-wide employment
gains, led by construction with approximately 4.6 million additional jobs in 2050. Trade also
adds 5.2 million jobs over the period 2030–2070 in the Net Zero Scenario compared to the
Current Policy Scenario.
Livelihood diversification strategies are essential in climate vulnerable and fossil-fuel
dependent regions: Migration functions as a livelihood diversification strategy, particularly
in agriculture dominant states. The share of male outmigrants is more compared to women.
Migrants frequently settle in informal urban settlements and enter informal labour markets
in construction, transport, and informal services. This can transform migration from a coping
mechanism into a source of new vulnerabilities as both climate impacts and industrial
restructuring intensify displacement pressures.
Climate change intensifies health burdens disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations:
Healthcare systems in over 40% of districts in India face high climate risk, with escalating direct
and indirect impacts through rising temperatures, frequent heat waves, increased transmission of
vector-borne diseases and deteriorating air quality. These risks amplify cardiovascular, respiratory,
and heat-related illnesses and impacts fall disproportionately on vulnerable groups including
women, children, and the elderly and urban informal workers with low-adaptive capacity.
Energy transition presents health opportunities: Transitioning from fossil-fuel based system
to low-carbon energy offers substantial health benefits including reduced respiratory diseases,
cardiovascular diseases, premature deaths, heat-related illnesses, and improved air quality.
India has built a robust policy ecosystem for behavioural change, anchored by Mission Lifestyle
for Environment: India has successfully deployed large-scale behavioural interventions across
multiple sectors, establishing proven models through flagship programmes like Swachh Bharat
Abhiyan, UJALA (Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All), Jal Jeevan Mission, and the Bureau of
Energy Efficiency’s star labelling programme. These initiatives demonstrate how social proofing,
choice architecture, defaults, and peer networks can drive voluntary adoption of sustainable
practices at national scale. Mission LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment), launched in 2022, provides
a comprehensive national architecture that unifies these sectoral efforts into a coordinated
system, with the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change as the anchor player. xix
Executive Summary Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Behavioural changes and equity considerations are key to shaping the transition landscape:
Behavioural barriers rooted in social norms, status perceptions, and structural constraints persist
across sectors. For example, personal vehicle ownership remains a status symbol, landlords lack
incentives to invest in building efficiency where tenants reap the savings, industrial procurement
may prioritise cost over carbon footprint, and farmers may show aversion toward unfamiliar
climate-smart practices.
The effectiveness of behavioural interventions varies significantly across India’s diverse
socioeconomic contexts, with groups facing constrained decision making authority such as
women in many households and lower income families encountering material and social barriers
that limit their ability to adopt sustainable behaviours.
Key Policy Suggestions
1. Promote decentralised renewable energy solutions: Prioritise decentralised solutions such
as rooftop solar, mini-grids, and dual-use systems like agri-PhotoVoltaics that combine
farming with solar panels. These approaches reduce large-scale land acquisition requirement
and support local communities. These land-neutral solutions may be promoted through
targeted Viability Gap Funding (VGF) or concessional debt.
Further, the implementation of decentralised models can be scaled through adoption of
business models such as Renewable Energy Service Companies (RESCOs). To be effective,
RESCOs must operate within clear contractual frameworks supported by robust risk-
mitigation instruments and revenue-sharing mechanisms. Additionally, to ensure tangible
benefits for local communities, RESCO operators can adopt local employment quotas
alongside targeted reskilling programs for skilled roles.
2. Recognise energy-use explicitly in national and state level water allocation policies:
Safeguards include promoting desalination in coastal regions, wastewater circularity in
groundwater-stressed areas, and prioritizing water-lean energy technologies through
efficiency-based evaluation criteria.
3. Improve planning and resource management: Use mapping tools to avoid high conflict
zones and ecologically sensitive areas. Explicitly include energy production in water
allocation policies, encouraging water-efficient technologies, recycled water use, and
desalination technologies especially in coastal areas.
4. Create a comprehensive package for affected workers and regions:
(a) Creation of national policy framework followed by district level transition plans for
worker retraining, relocation support, and economic diversification in affected districts.
Further, in affected districts, leverage funds from District Mineral Foundations, Skill
Council for Green Jobs and the Skill India Mission.
(b) Accelerate development of sector specific transition skill roadmaps to identify at-risk
occupations in fossil-fuel linked sectors.
(c) Upgrade the e-Shram platform to track workers in fossil-fuel industries. Ensure
access to social protection entitlements for all the impacted workers (informal and
contractual). xxScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
(d) In fossil-fuel dependent regions and areas increasingly impacted by climate change,
establish local facilitation units to help workers access benefits and navigate reskilling
programs while accelerating implementation of new Labour Codes.
5. Establish consistent risk assessment nationwide: Adopt and integrate standardized
vulnerability assessment framework into health surveillance systems to track of climate-
sensitive diseases across states.
6. Build climate-ready health infrastructure and workforce with adequate financing:
(a) Update Indian Public Health Standards (IPHS) to include climate-proofing requirements
such as backup power, water security, and climate-resilient designs.
(b) Integrate climate-health and emergency preparedness modules into medical training
with mandatory refresher courses and preparedness drills.
(c) Use earmarked National Health Mission (NHM) funding to attract larger investments
from multilateral and philanthropic sources.
7. Deploy targeted behavioural interventions across sectors:
(a) Leverage visible leadership and social proof through campaigns showcasing public
officials and community leaders using sustainable practices.
(b) Integrate behavioural nudges into digital platforms with sustainable defaults in
mobility apps and smart building systems.
(c) Deploy standardised Product Carbon Footprint labelling for industrial procurement
(d) Build comparative energy reports with neighbourhood baselines for households to
nudge energy-use behaviour.
(e) Promote farmer-led demonstration plots with bundled climate-smart packages to
reduce decision fatigue and risk aversion.
8. Strengthen Mission Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE) implementation through integration
and evidence-based monitoring:
(a) Accelerate the mainstreaming of Mission LiFE principles across existing government
schemes in housing, energy, transport, agriculture, and livelihoods.
(b) Establish outcome-oriented monitoring and evaluation frameworks with behavioural
indicators, baseline data collection, and longitudinal tracking.
(c) Strengthen inter-ministerial and center-state coordination while ensuring interventions
are responsive to diverse socioeconomic contexts. INTRODUCTION
1 2Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Introduction
1.1 CONTEXT
India stands at a defining juncture in its development trajectory. It is aiming to become
Viksit Bharat by 2047, a developed country, with a high per capita income, while doing so
in a sustainable manner. Given the Net Zero by 2070 goal laid down by the Hon’ble Prime
Minister, there are limitations on using purely fossil-fuel led growth path.
The challenge is particularly consequential as India simultaneously pursues the two national
priorities: achieving developed-nation status by 2047 and reaching Net Zero emissions by
2070, as this has never been done or attempted before. Navigating this dual ambition
demands a carefully sequenced, policy-driven transition that safeguards livelihoods,
promotes inclusive growth, and ensures that the costs and benefits of the transition are
equitably distributed. A socially informed approach to the energy transition is therefore
not only an environmental imperative, but a foundational requirement for sustainable and
resilient development.
At the core of this transition lie significant and unevenly distributed social pressures
emerging from both the expansion of low-carbon infrastructure and long-term decline in the
role of fossil-fuel-based systems. The fossil-fuel phase down affects not only formal mining
employment but also extensive informal livelihoods across supply chains, transportation,
and services concentrated in fossil-fuel dependent regions. These cascading socioeconomic
affects risk undermining community stability through the erosion of municipal revenues,
public services, and local economic ecosystems. At the same time, renewable energy
deployment is spatially concentrated in arid and semi-arid states, geographically distant
from existing fossil-fuel led economies (Mitra & Chandra, 2023). This spatial mismatch
creates new regional inequities, as job creation, infrastructure investment, and economic
opportunity do not naturally align with areas facing fossil-fuel decline in the long run.
The expansion of renewable energy infrastructure introduces additional social and ecological
stresses. Large-scale renewable projects demand significant land and water resources, often
intersecting with multifunctional landscapes that support pastoral grazing, rural livelihoods,
biodiversity, and cultural practices (The Nature Conservancy India, 2020). Water requirements
for construction and operation of low-carbon infrastructure further strain scarce resources
in host regions, exacerbating vulnerabilities among local and marginalised communities
(International Energy Agency [IEA], 2021). These pressures underscore that clean energy
deployment, while environmentally necessary, is not socially neutral and requires deliberate
policy safeguards.
1 3
Introduction Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
These transition-linked challenges are further compounded by India’s deep and escalating
climate vulnerabilities, which amplify social risks across both fossil-fuel-dependent and
renewable-intensive regions. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate (IPCC) stresses the need to
enhance the understanding of climate risks that arise from the interaction of environmental
hazards, socio-economic inequality, demographic pressures, and uneven adaptive capacity,
especially at sub-national levels (IPCC, 2022). According to the Global Climate Risk Index
2026, India ranks ninth globally among countries most affected by extreme weather events
over the period 1995–2024, reflecting high exposure and vulnerability to climate risks. It
is exposed to flooding, tropical cyclones, and drought. According to the Central Water
Commission’s (2023) statistical report, the average annual damages to crops, houses, and
public utilities from 1953 to 2021, as reported by states and Union Territories, totalled
₹6,972 crore. The highest recorded annual damage was ₹58,433 crore in 2021. Heatwaves
have caused over 24,000 deaths between 1992 and 2015, with urban heat island effects
intensifying risks in rapidly growing cities (Singh, 2025). In addition, a state-level assessment
under the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 found that air pollution contributed to 1.67
million deaths in India, accounting for nearly 18% of all deaths (Balakrishnan et al., 2021).
The economic losses from premature mortality and morbidity were equivalent to 1.36% of
national GDP in 2019 (Balakrishnan et al., 2021). These impacts disproportionately burden
the already vulnerable communities: rural pastoralists, informal workers, women, children,
the elderly, and indigenous communities (IPCC,2022).
The climate risk in India is therefore compounded by high levels of socioeconomic risk,
leading to a high instance of social vulnerability. Studies show that more than 80% of India’s
population lives in districts that are vulnerable to climate disasters, with most of them
having low adaptive capacities (Mohanty & Wadhawan, 2021). In this context, adaptation
and social protection measures are indispensable, not only to buffer vulnerable populations
from climate shocks, but also to ensure that the transition itself does not deepen existing
inequalities. Addressing these intertwined challenges requires governance frameworks
that translate technological and economic progress into tangible social security and local
well-being. Evidence from other parts of the world (See Box-1) highlights the centrality
of procedural equity, transparent consent processes, benefit-sharing mechanisms, and
livelihood restoration, in reducing conflict and sustaining public support for resource-
intensive transitions. 4
Introduction Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Box-1: International practices for managing
social aspects of transition
Germany’s Structural Development Act implemented in 2020, allocated up to 40 billion
euros through 2038 to help coal regions through the phase-out (Federal Government
of Germany, 2020). The plan supports investments in clean energy, infrastructure,
science and innovation and labour market policies in the hopes of diversifying and
boosting the regional economies.
South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme
(REIPPPP), launched in 2011, attempted at equitable energy transitions via competitive
bidding with socioeconomic safeguards. It imposed minimum local content thresholds
of 40% for goods and services in initial rounds from 2011 to 2013, with compliance
increasing steadily in subsequent rounds (Eberhard & Naudé, 2017). Concurrently, the
programme required at least 2.5% equity shares for communities within 50 km of sites,
however, bidders frequently offered higher shares of 8% to 12.5% through trusts. These
measures comparatively reduced resource conflicts and secured 6,328 MW across 92
projects by 2015, driving tariff reductions and investment (Eberhard & Naudé, 2017).
China’s agrivoltaics systems in the Kubuqi Desert integrate solar generation with
ecological restoration and desert-adapted agriculture, enhancing soil and water
outcomes while diversifying rural incomes (Asian Development Bank, 2024; Wang et
al., 2024). Research documents that photovoltaic installations in the Kubuqi reduced
ground wind speeds by up to 50%; when paired with sand-fixation grids, these systems
achieved desert stabilization in only four years, significantly accelerating the traditional
ten-year restoration timeline (Huawei Digital Power, 2023).
1.2 INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISM TO EXAMINE THE ISSUE: INTER-
MINISTERIAL WORKING GROUP ON SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF
TRANSITION
The objective of the Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Social Implications was to examine
the social aspects of transition such as land and water, employment, migration, health, and
individual and community behaviour. The terms of Reference (ToR) of the Working Group
are as follows:
(a) Examine the issues of transition away from fossil-fuel assets on employment and
indigenous communities.
(b) Examine the impact of transition on need for reskilling workforce for high value-
added jobs especially among the most vulnerable sectors such as coal mining,
fossil-fuel value chain etc.
(c) Examine the impact of various scenarios on land and water requirement.
(d) Examine the issue of migration for livelihood generation. 5
Introduction Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
(e) Examine the implication of climate change on different sections of society for
example, increase in vector borne diseases, coastal flooding due to sea level rise
etc.
(f) Examine the role of behavioural nudges in pushing for efficient resource use.
Chairperson of the working group: Dr. V.K. Paul, Member (NITI Aayog).
Accordingly, this report frames low-carbon development as an opportunity for transformative
socio-economic realignment, integrating technological innovation with inclusive growth.
Section 2 quantifies land and water requirements across alternative transition pathways to
identify critical pressure points. Section 3 examines the future of work, analysing employment
shifts, skill transitions, and migration dynamics. Section 4 explores health equity and the co-
benefits of mitigation and adaptation. Section 5 assesses the behavioural changes required
to sustain the transition and concludes by outlining governance pathways that align India’s
climate ambitions with the broader goal of a prosperous, just, inclusive, and resilient Viksit
Bharat. LAND AND WATER:
THE RESOURCE
CONTEXT
2 8Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
2
Land and Water:
The Resource Context
Land and water are fundamental to India’s development, supporting food security, livelihoods,
urbanization, industrial growth, and the transition to clean energy. These resources are
increasingly under pressure from competing demands: expanding agriculture to meet the
needs of a growing population, rapid urbanisation and infrastructure needs, intensifying
industrialisation, and the impacts of climate change degrading soil and disrupting hydrological
cycles. With just 0.11 hectares of arable land per person, India falls well below the global
average of 0.172 hectares, reflecting the pressures of limited land resources (World Bank,
2023). Adding to this is the growing reality of land degradation arising from the combination
of climatic, developmental, social and anthropogenic pressures. ISRO’s Desertification and
Land Degradation Atlas of India (2018), reports that, as of 2018-19, approximately 30% of
India’s total geographic area was degraded. Further, from 2011–13 to 2018–19, the affected
area saw a modest cumulative increase of 1.45 million hectares (0.44% of total geographical
area), reflecting ongoing monitoring and targeted interventions amid broader restoration
efforts (Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), 2023).
On the water availability side, assessments indicate that average annual per capita availability
is projected to drop from 1,486 cubic meters in 2021 to 1,367 cubic meters by 2031, placing
India in the “water-stressed” category, which is defined as having less than 1,700 cubic
meters available per person (Ministry of Jal Shakti, 2024). While these figures remain above
the 1,000 cubic meter threshold that marks a condition of “water scarcity,” the consistent
downward trend highlights increasing pressure on resources. NITI Aayog’s Composite Water
Management Index 2.0 (2019) highlights that 820 million people across 12 river basins face
per capita water availability below the scarcity threshold. Further, groundwater supports
80% of domestic water needs and 63% of irrigation amid intensifying economic and urban
growth demands.
Climate change further shapes these dynamics through erratic monsoons, increased rainfall
variability, and rising temperatures. These factors impact crop yields, hinder groundwater
recharge, and alter surface water flows. Such shifts particularly impact rainfed agriculture,
which accounts for over 60% of India’s cultivated land and supports a significant portion
of the rural population (World Bank, 2013). Water pollution is a concern as well. However,
over the past years there has been marked improvement. Only 46% of rivers monitored (279
out of 603) were identified as polluted. In comparison 70% of rivers(275 out of 390) were
identified as polluted in 2015 (Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), 2025).
Therefore, India’s pursuit of being a developed economy by 2047 (Viksit Bharat) coupled
with its commitment to achieve the Net Zero by 2070 is unfolding amid a land–water
landscape already under strain. The large scale renewable energy deployment central to 9
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
India’s Net Zero by 2070 carries a significant land footprint. Utility-scale solar installations
typically demand 1.2 – 2 hectares per MW of occupied land, as the panels and infrastructure
cover most of the site. (Mazumdar and Malik, 2025). In contrast, wind power parks utilie a
much larger dispersed land area due to turbine spacing requirements, access infrastructure,
and environmental buffers. Meanwhile, despite renewable energy sources’ high water use
during construction, they significantly reduce operational water use. However, the land they
require is a challenge in a country with limited space.
Other components of the energy transition shift pressure onto water resources. Nuclear
power, envisioned as a stable clean baseload, requires uninterrupted cooling water for safety
and operation. Similarly, green hydrogen produced via electrolysis depends on substantial
amounts of high-purity freshwater, raising competition risks in basins already stretched
thin. Even conventional thermal power plants contribute to resource stress, needing land
for infrastructure, ash disposal, and mining, being significant water users, mainly for the
cooling purposes.
India’s biofuel expansion, including ethanol blending, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel
(SAF), adds another layer to this complexity. The primary feedstock of sugarcane, rice, and
maize are inherently water-intensive. NITI Aayog (2021) estimates that sugarcane-based
ethanol consumes around 2,860 litres of water per litre of ethanol produced while maize
ethanol may need over 4,600 litres per litre, and rice ethanol over 10,700 litres of water
per litre. Scaling ethanol blending without efficiency improvements or feedstock shifts could
impact water for agriculture and households.
These land and water pressures, intensified by climate change and energy transition demands,
disproportionately burden vulnerable populations reliant on these resources. Smallholder
farmers risk crop failure from erratic monsoons and land diversion; women, elderly, and
children in low-income households face heightened vulnerability due to direct economic
dependence on these resources. The following sections assess land and water use across
the Current Policy Scenario and the Net Zero Scenario pathways, examine spatial impacts
on these groups, analyse governance challenges, and propose inclusive strategies for India’s
low-carbon transition.
2.1 LAND & WATER USE IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
To assess how India’s energy transition will shape future land and water needs, this report
evaluates two scenarios, aligned with national development and climate goals (For details,
refer to Volume IIE Power sector report):
• Current Policy Scenario (CPS): The scenario represents a level of effort that is realistically
achievable based on historical trends and recent progress. It assumes that current
policies (as of 2022) and past trends will continue, leading to a gradual adoption of
low-carbon technologies in each sector.
• Net Zero Scenario (NZS): The scenario reflects an ambitious pathway aligned with India’s
commitment to achieve the Net Zero GHG emissions by 2070. It incorporates both existing
and additional policy measures to accelerate technology deployment and significant
behavioural and structural shifts across sectors. Key strategies include rapid electrification
of end-use sectors, substantial gains in energy efficiency, adoption of circular economy
practices, and high penetration of renewable and clean energy technologies. 10
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
This analysis is restricted to the power sector and green hydrogen production. Other land-
and water-intensive components of the transition such as biofuels, industry, and non-power
infrastructure are not modelled here. Results are based on average technology intensities
(land required per MW, water required per MWh or per kilogram of hydrogen) applied to
projected capacity mixes (Detailed land/water use factors are provided in Annexures A & B).
They provide a directional assessment of future pressures but do not capture site-specific
variations such as regional water stress, land quality, or competing livelihood uses. Capacity
mixes for each scenario are drawn from energy system modelling, and aggregate land and
water requirements are derived accordingly.
India’s Net Zero pathways entail substantial land and water requirements for clean energy
deployment in both scenarios. Figure 2.1 presents land requirements (in million hectares)
for 2030, 2050, and 2070 under both the scenarios.
0.68
2.35
4.18
0.82
3.26
5.92
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
203020502070
Land Requirement (Mha)
CPS NZS
Million Hectares
Figure 2.1: Land requirement under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Land demand increases steadily under both scenarios as renewable capacity expands. Under
the Current Policy Scenario, land requirements rise from 0.68 million hectares (Mha) in 2030
to 2.35 Mha in 2050, and 4.2 Mha by 2070. Under the Net Zero Scenario, land requirements
are substantially higher, increasing from 0.82 Mha in 2030 to 3.26 Mha in 2050, and reaching
5.92 Mha by 2070. This reflects the extensive deployment of solar, wind, and nuclear energy
required under a rapid Net Zero pathway. Future adoption of rooftop solar, floating solar,
and agro-photovoltaic systems could, however, diversify deployment models and partially
reduce land requirements.
At the national level, the aggregate land requirement for clean energy deployment appears
manageable relative to India’s total geographic area of approximately 300 million hectares.
Recent land-use statistics indicate that net sown area constitutes 46.20% of the total area,
while current and other fallow lands account for 8.35%. Pastures, tree crops, and culturable
wastelands collectively represent 6.15% (Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department
of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, 2024). Further, wastelands constitute only ~17% of the
total land area, estimated at 55.76 million hectares in the Wasteland Atlas of India (2019). 11
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
A large part of this is India’s open natural ecosystems (Vanak, and Madhusudan, 2022).
Large-scale renewable projects are often set up on these wastelands. In reality, these open
ecosystems often support grazing, biodiversity, and rural livelihoods (Vanak & Madhusudan,
2022).
As observed, land requirements for the power sector under both the scenarios is projected
to increase over the years. This is majorly driven by the increasing share of renewables.
Under the Current Policy Scenario, the land requirements are projected to reach 4.2 Mha
by 2070, which is equivalent to about 7.5% of the assessed wastelands. Further, under
the Net Zero Scenario the land requirements are projected to reach 5.92 Mha by 2070,
which is equivalent to about 11% of the assessed wastelands. In both the scenarios the
wasteland estimates for clean energy deployment constitute a substantial portion of the
available wastelands. Given this, the diversion of such ecosystems for setting up large-scale
renewable energy projects necessitates rigorous safeguards to mitigate socioeconomic and
ecological impacts.
Concurrently, water requirements of the power sector evolve differently across scenarios as
the generation mix shifts (see Figure 2.2).
6.46 6.63
10.90 11.07
9.90
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
203020502070
Water Requirement (BCM)
CPS NZS
9.13
Billion Cubic Metre
Figure 2.2: Water requirement under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Under both scenarios, water consumption increases substantially by mid-century and declines
thereafter. This is driven by the rising share of renewables which have low operational water
requirements. It is further noted that the water consumption in the Net Zero Scenario
remains higher than the water consumption under the Current Policy Scenarios throughout.
This is due to greater nuclear capacity and the scaling up of green hydrogen production
under the Net Zero Scenario.
Water use within renewable systems varies considerably by technology and practice. It
ranges from 3 to 8 litres per module for traditional manual cleaning to less than 1.5 litres
for optimised systems, with waterless robotic solutions now providing a zero-consumption
alternative (Renewable Watch, 2020). Green hydrogen production typically has a water 12
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
consumption intensity ranging from 17.5 to 22.3 litres per kilogram (IRENA and Bluerisk,
2023). However, when accounting for additional requirements like purification and process
cooling, the total water withdrawal reaches approximately 32 litres per kilogram.
In addition, it is to be noted that despite lower aggregate water demand, local water stress
does not disappear in renewables-dominated systems. Solar parks in arid and semi-arid
states will continue to require water for maintenance. Similarly, large-scale green hydrogen
production is likely to create new industrial water demand hotspots near refineries and
industrial clusters.
Moreover, renewables create indirect resource pressures along their value chains. Grid
expansion (transmission corridors and substations) adds to land footprints (besides the
estimates in Figure 2.1), while battery storage depends on minerals such as lithium, cobalt,
and nickel, whose extraction is water-intensive. Lithium extraction has significant water
requirements, that is, extracting one ton of lithium requires approximately 5,00,000 gallons
of water (Greenmatch, 2024). Further, every tonne of mined lithium results in 15 tonnes of
CO
2
emissions in the environment. Nickel mining, often from laterite ores, can impact the
natural ecosystem (Genchi et al.,2020).
Taken together, India’s energy transition will reconfigure resource pressures. In both pathways,
basin-level and region-specific planning will be critical to reconcile energy expansion with
limited freshwater availability and competing land uses. Recycling, responsible sourcing, and
integrated infrastructure planning will therefore be essential.
2.2 SPATIAL ASPECTS OF TRANSITION
India’s land and water resource needs for renewable energy expansion needs to be seen in
the context of demographic growth, ecological considerations, and multiple development
priorities. This needs a closer examination of trajectories, including their geographic
distribution, intersections with prevailing land uses, and other conditions.
India’s renewable energy reforms have accelerated utility-scale solar deployment alongside
wind and hybrids through several reform measures such as the Payment Security Mechanism,
Waiver of Inter-State transmission charges, 100% FDI under the automatic route, the Green
Energy Corridors programme etc. As a result, utility-scale solar constitutes ~100 GW of 130
GW total installed capacity, with 135 GW under construction. Wind power (including new
onshore projects, repowering of ageing wind farms, and an increasing share of wind–solar
hybrid installations) constitutes more than 50 GW of the installed capacity, with over 30
GW under various stages of development (PIB, 2025).
While these measures have facilitated rapid scale-up, they have also created conditions
favouring large, contiguous sites in resource-rich zones. As per the Renewable Energy
Statistics for 2024-25the RE capacity is geographically concentrated in five states: Rajasthan,
Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka as shown in Figure 2.3 (MNRE, 2025).
These together account for nearly 75% of installed solar and wind capacity. 13
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Figure 2.3: Solar capacity in various states in 2024 - 2025
These regions driving renewable expansion are largely located in arid and semi-arid areas,
with 56% of all solar installations nationally located in water-stressed zones, amplifying
ecological and hydrological risks for local communities (Gupta, 2019). This spatial overlap
of renewable deployment intensity and vulnerable population concentrations creates
distributional challenges that need to be addressed. When renewable projects are sited in
these regions, they systematically concentrate development pressures on populations with
low capacity to absorb them.
2.3 CHALLENGES
1. Diversion of open ecosystems:
Government assessments identify ~55 million hectares as wastelands. A large part
of this is India’s open natural ecosystems (Vanak, and Madhusudan, 2022). Large-
scale renewable projects are often set up on these wastelands. In reality, these
open ecosystems often support grazing, fuelwood, and minor forest produce.
The diversion of open ecosystems needs to be carefully managed to protect the
livelihoods of people dependent on these areas.
2. Ecological Disruptions and Biodiversity Impacts:
India’s transition spans vulnerable ecosystems such as the Western Ghats, Thar and
Kutch grasslands, and coastal wetlands, which host endemic and endangered species
(Shivaprakash, 2022). Renewable installations often impact these habitats through
land clearing, fragmentation, and construction of roads and transmission lines. The 14
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
consequences include vegetation loss, increased soil erosion, and disrupted wildlife
corridors. Further, these can impair ecosystem services like carbon sequestration, soil
retention, and hydrological regulation. Climate change amplifies these vulnerabilities.
3. Water Stress and Hydrological Competition:
The rapid expansion of renewable energy infrastructure unfolds within regions
experiencing increasing hydrological constraints. Groundwater over-exploitation
affects over 25% of administrative units in several states, with renewable zones
increasingly coinciding with “Critical” and “Over-exploited” districts (Central Ground
Water Board, 2025). Emerging low-carbon industries concentrate withdrawals near
such areas, amplifying competing sectoral demands. Coordinated water allocation
mechanisms are needed to manage this.
2.4 SUGGESTIONS
1. Land-Neutral and Water-Efficient Pathways: Technological innovation offers
pathways to decouple renewable deployment from competing uses of land and
water. Agrivoltaics, floating solar, and built-environment integration demonstrate that
energy expansion need not displace existing productive land use while preserving
agricultural output and reducing water consumption.
To scale these models, there is a need to address the premium costs associated with
these technologies. For example, Agri-Photo Voltaic (APV) systems typically cost upto
40% more than ground-mounted PV because of specialised structures and dual-use
design (Pandey et al., 2025). Floating solar also exhibits higher levelized costs, with a
Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) of ~₹4.32/kWh (US$0.052/kWh) compared to recent
utility-scale solar tariffs of ~₹2.4–₹2.8/kWh (Mondragon Assembly, 2024). Accordingly,
pursuing these options needs targeted viability-gap support or concessional debt to
socialise the land-benefit while keeping retail tariffs stable.
For floating solar, comprehensive reservoir mapping through the Central Water
Commission and state irrigation departments may be undertaken to identify suitable
areas. Further, complementing these approaches, building-integrated photovoltaics,
railway-mounted solar, and highway installations can be supported through relevant
ministries and departments.
2. Strengthen Spatial Planning: For projects that remain land-intensive, robust siting
strategies are essential. Platforms such as the Integrated Biodiversity Assessment
Tool (IBAT) and the Avian Sensitivity Tool for Energy Planning (AVISTEP) enable
developers to avoid ecologically sensitive habitats. Coupled with accurate land records
and structured community consultations, such tools can reduce contestation and
improve the credibility of siting decisions. Importantly, these process can integrate
local communities to ensure that mapping translates into legitimate outcomes on
the ground.
India’s extensive stock of degraded and converted lands offers an underutilised
opportunity for clean energy. These lands have limited agricultural value but can
host solar and wind projects with relatively low social cost. Additionally, repurposing
the 2,500 km² of land already mined for coal and lignite would serve dual goals: 15
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
advancing low carbon development while supporting a just transition in mining-
dependent regions by creating new jobs and infrastructure.
3. Scale implementation of decentralised models: Decentralised Renewable Energy
(DRE) represents another critical lever. Rooftop solar, mini-grids, solar pumps, and
solar street lighting extend access without large-scale land acquisition, directly
supporting rural livelihoods and last-mile electrification. Such models enable inclusive
access, local ownership, and equitable benefit-sharing.
Decentralised models implemented through Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs)
and cooperatives also provide economies of scale, wherein farmers not only retain
land but also receive additional revenue from the sale of surplus power. While this
model is important for inclusivity, only a small share of FPOs/Cooperatives currently
has the institutional strength to manage large DRE projects at scale.
The more scalable pathway lies in Renewable Energy Service Companies (RESCOs)
and private developers, who can aggregate multiple sites, manage operations
professionally, and access institutional capital. In such models, farmers or communities
lease land, enter service contracts, or share revenues, while developers take on
financing and operational risks.
This aggregation model allows innovation like agrivoltaics or floating solar to be
deployed at scale while still delivering steady livelihood benefits to landowners. To
succeed, however, RESCOs must ensure farmers’ and communities’ interests are
met through measures such as clear contractual frameworks and risk mitigation
instruments that incorporate clear revenue-sharing. To ensure economic inclusion,
employment quotas may require developers to source their workforce from host
districts, with provisions for marginalised communities and dedicated training for
skilled roles, moving beyond temporary casual labour.
4. Developing Fit-for-Purpose Financing Models: A fundamental barrier to the scaling
of innovative renewable energy models and community participation is access
to affordable and patient capital. Commercial lenders typically require collateral
that farmer organisations and community entities cannot provide, while emerging
technologies face higher perceived risks and longer payback periods. These
constraints limit the participation of small developers, cooperatives, and landholders
in the energy transition.
To address these gaps, India requires a differentiated financing architecture anchored
in public and blended finance. Development finance institutions such as IREDA,
NABARD, and multilateral partners can provide concessional debt, first-loss capital,
and partial credit guarantees to de-risk investments in agrivoltaics, floating solar,
and decentralised renewable energy. Payment security mechanisms such as escrow
accounts, state-backed guarantees, or pooled risk facilities should be established to
mitigate off-take risk, particularly for community-linked and small-scale developers.
While long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) remain central, revenue
diversification should be enabled through participation in emerging capacity markets
and ancillary service markets that value firm capacity, storage, and grid services.
Such mechanisms can improve project bankability while supporting grid stability. 16
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Crucially, concessional finance and risk guarantees may be explicitly linked to social
performance. Access to preferential capital must be conditional on compliance with
procedural safeguards, including prior consent, transparent benefit-sharing and
local employment commitments. Embedding social conditionality within financing
frameworks ensures that public capital catalyses not only clean energy deployment,
but also durable social outcomes and community trust.
5. Water Resource Management: Currently, energy production is captured under
“industry” in national and state water policies. Bringing energy explicitly into these
policies enables rational priority-setting and efficiency optimization. Safeguards
while prioritizing allocation for energy may include:
a. For coastal zones, the integration of desalination technologies offers a pathway
to reduce freshwater requirements.
b. In regions facing acute groundwater depletion, the focus may shift toward
circularity utilizing treated wastewater for energy production.
c. Prioritise water-lean technologies by incorporating efficiency as evaluation
criteria, rewarding waterless cleaning or closed-loop recycling. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition 3
LIVELIHOOD,
EMPLOYMENT AND
MIGRATION ASPECT India’s development and low-carbon transition unfolds along with shifts in work, livelihoods and
migration patterns. Employment structures determine which households can absorb shocks
from both climate impacts and clean energy deployment, and which are vulnerable. Patterns
of migration, in turn, can act as social “shock absorbers” when they enable people to diversify
income or move out of high-risk zones, or as “shock amplifiers” when migrants are channelled
into precarious, climate-exposed settlements with limited protection. It is thus important to
examine how employment and mobility will be reconfigured in a Net Zero economy, and how
these changes intersect with existing structural inequalities in India’s labour market.
India’s labour force is vast with more than 640 million people employed in 2023–24 and
contributing nearly 52% to Gross Value Added (GVA) (Reserve Bank of India, 2024). The
labour force participation rate has risen steadily, from 49.8% in 2017–18 to 60.1% in 2023–24,
driven largely by a surge in women’s participation from 23.3% to 41.7% in the same period
(Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), 2024).
In terms of employment structure, according to PLFS 2023-24, agriculture employs 43.5%
of workforce while contributing 14.7% of gross value added, while industry generates 21.9%
of output and employs 24.9% and services account for 63.4% of output and employs 31.6%.
The employment landscape is defined by high informality with estimates differing due to
methodological differences (Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI,
2024). PLFS (2023-24) further estimates that over 70% of non-agriculture workers are
informally employed nationally with rural areas having a ratio of 79% and urban having
66% (MoSPI, 2024). Adding to this, the report further suggests that only 21.7% held regular
wage jobs (MoSPI, 2024). Informality pervades both traditional and modern sectors.
Against this backdrop of high informality and uneven job quality, the employment impacts
of India’s low-carbon transition acquire particular significance. Energy systems are not only
central to economic growth but also anchor livelihoods across regions, value chains, and
skill levels. As the transition reshapes energy production, infrastructure, and supply chains,
it will directly affect where jobs are created, which skills are valued, and which workers face
displacement. Examining employment dynamics within fossil-fuel and clean energy sectors
therefore provides a critical lens to assess how the Net Zero transition may redistribute risks
and opportunities across India’s workforce.
India’s fossil-fuel supply chains, including coal, oil, and gas, remain major employers, but they
are increasingly exposed to transition risks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) (2024)
estimates that in 2023, India’s energy sector employed 8.5 million workers, of which 3 million
were in electricity generation and grid, and 2.4 million in coal, oil, and gas supply. These figures
capture only direct employment; when indirect jobs are included, the scale expands substantially.
3
Livelihood,
employment and
migration aspect 19
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
On other hand, clean energy is emerging as an important driver of job growth across the
energy sector. In India, energy sector employment grew 3% year-on-year to 8.5 million, with
clean energy jobs expanding by 5%, higher than the 2% growth in fossil-fuel jobs (IEA, 2024).
However, vulnerabilities and opportunities of the Net Zero transition are deeply spatial in
nature. The following section therefore undertakes a state-level analysis to examine how
the energy transition is likely to reshape employment, migration, and livelihood outcomes
across regions, and what this implies for targeted policy responses.
3.1 STATE-LEVEL ECONOMIC STRUCTURES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS
FOR EMPLOYMENT AND MIGRATION
India’s transition to a developed economy by 2047 and subsequently to Net Zero emissions
by 2070 will not unfold uniformly across the country. States enter this dual transition
with markedly different economic structures, labour markets, and exposure to climate
and transition risks. These structural differences shape how shocks are absorbed, where
employment opportunities emerge, and which regions face the greatest risks of dislocation.
A state-level classification of economic structure is therefore essential to move beyond a
one-size-fits-all transition strategy and to identify differentiated pathways for development,
employment creation, and low-carbon transition. Such a framework helps anticipate where
labour displacement is likely, where clean energy and green industrial opportunities can be
scaled most effectively, and where targeted policy support through skilling, social protection,
or regional investment will be most critical.
In the analysis discussed subsequently, an attempt has been made to categorise states
under broad economic profiles namely agriculture-dominant, industry-dominant, services-
dominant, and balanced states based on their output and employment structures. This
categorisation provides a lens to assess how India’s development and climate transitions
intersect at the sub-national level, and how policy responses must be sequenced and tailored
across states rather than applied uniformly.
1. Agriculture-Dominant States: In the agrarian heartland, agriculture’s share Net State
Value Added (NSVA) and employment in many states is above the national average (17.3%
Gross Value Added (GVA) and 43% of employment). As per PLFS and National Accounts
2022–23, this includes: Madhya Pradesh (37.1 % of NVSA and, 56% of employment), Uttar
Pradesh (24.7%, 51.9%), Rajasthan (29.7%, 50.8%), Bihar (20.5%, 48.6%). Among these
states, more than half of the workforce remains concentrated in agriculture in Madhya
Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar.
This concentration reflects persistent low labour productivity, limiting income growth
and local absorption capacity outside farming. As a result, migration functions as a
primary livelihood diversification strategy for working-age men and women, allowing
households to offset seasonal income volatility, and climate-related shocks. According
to the last comprehensive migration survey undertaken in 2020–21, male migration is
overwhelmingly driven by employment (Migration in India, MoSPI, 2023), and Census
2011 highlights Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Rajasthan as the states
with the highest shares of male outmigrants (Office of the Registrar General & Census
Commissioner, India, 2011). 20
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
2. Industry-Led States: Among industry-led states, crucial distinctions exist between
manufacturing-driven, mining-driven, and construction-driven industrial structures.
These differences shape both employment outcomes and exposure to transition risks.
(a) Manufacturing-driven states: Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra account for
the bulk of India’s manufacturing output. Alongside these large manufacturing
giants, a sizeable manufacturing base is also evident in smaller states. Goa, Sikkim,
Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh emerge as smaller but genuine manufacturing
hubs. In these states, pharmaceuticals and chemicals dominate production, while
in some cases automobiles and light engineering have developed under tax
incentives and industrial clustering policies.
(b) Mining-driven states: Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Assam and Tripura, are characterised by
mining- and metals-led industrial structures. These sectors generate substantial output
but absorb relatively few workers, resulting in high output concentration without
corresponding broad-based employment. Such structures heighten vulnerability to
energy transitions, particularly as fossil-fuel–linked activities face long-term decline.
(c) Construction-driven states: Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar, Kerala, Manipur, Nagaland,
Chandigarh, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are the states where construction
contributes more than 50% of industry Net State Value Added (NSVA). Construction
functions as a labour sponge, particularly for migrants and low-skilled workers, but
remains cyclical, highly informal, and weak in long-term productivity gains. The
Internal Migration in Asia report highlights that such workers typically operate
without adequate protections or safety nets, rendering them especially vulnerable
to downturns in construction activity and climate-related disruptions.
3. Service-Driven States: A third pattern emerges in service-driven states, where services
account for far more than the national benchmark of 54.9% Gross Value Added (GVA).
Delhi (85.9% Net State Value Added (NSVA), 66.9% employment) and Chandigarh
(90.4%, 84.8%) are the most extreme, dominated almost entirely by public administration
and tertiary services.
Karnataka (64.8% NSVA, 35% employment), Telangana (62.0%, 34.6%), and Kerala (64.9%,
49.4%) also far exceed the national benchmark, powered by IT, remittances, and tourism.
The North-East similarly reveals service-led structures: Manipur (71.1% NSVA, 38.1%
employment), Nagaland (65.7%, 38.4%), and Meghalaya (63.2%, 31.5%), though here
much of the service activity reflects government administration.
4. Balanced States: A handful of states emerge as balanced giants, like Tamil Nadu, Gujarat,
and Maharashtra who have substantial contributions from agriculture, industry, and services.
These states exhibit diversification and resilience, absorbing labour effectively while
exemplifying the structural transformation essential for nationwide replication (Table 3.1). 21
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Table 3.1: Categorisation of states based on economic and employment structures
CategoryStates
Agriculture dominant Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar
Manufacturing-led industry Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh
Construction-led industry NE-states
Services driven Delhi, Chandigarh, Karnataka, Telangana
Balanced giantsMaharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat
This differentiation is particularly critical for understanding employment risks linked to
fossil-fuel dependent sectors. States with mining- and metals-led industrial structures host a
concentrated workforce tied to coal, minerals, and energy-intensive industries, making them
disproportionately exposed to transition related job losses. As India advances toward the Net
Zero, these sectoral and spatial concentrations will determine where labour displacement
pressures are most acute and where proactive reskilling, diversification, and social protection
measures must be prioritised.
3.2 FOSSIL-FUEL DEPENDENCE AND VULNERABILITY
India’s economic structure, as reflected in the state-level typology above, is not only uneven
across sectors and regions but is also deeply intertwined with the fossil-fuel economy. Coal,
oil, and gas have historically underpinned industrialisation, electricity supply, and energy-
intensive manufacturing, particularly in mining-driven and heavy-industry-oriented states.
This legacy has produced pronounced regional concentrations of fossil-fuel dependence,
where entire districts rely on coal mining, thermal power, refineries, steel, cement, and
fertiliser industries for both employment and public revenues. 22
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Box-2: Spatial distribution of fossil-fuel supply chains
An estimate suggests that over 150 districts across India are significantly dependent
on fossil-fuel supply chains, directly or indirectly sustaining livelihoods for nearly one-
third of India’s population (Bhushan and Banerjee, 2021) (See Figure 3.1). This spatial
clustering means that the transition away from fossil-fuel will be a lived reality in specific
parts of India, where jobs, state finances, and induced economies are interwoven with
fossil-fuel economy.
Figure 3.1 : Districts dependent on fossil-fuel economy 23
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Coal mining remains the backbone of fossil-fuel employment. As of April 2024, Coal India
Limited (CIL) employed 2,28,861 workers (regular and contractual) in its subsidiaries across
Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh (Ministry of Coal, 2024). However,
this number masks the wider reality: large numbers of contract, transport, loading, and
ancillary workers operate outside CIL’s rolls. According to this working group, formal coal
mine employment is about 3,45,000 workers (See Table 3.2) (Working group analysis), while
the informal workforce is at least twice as large. This implies that over 1 million people are
directly dependent on coal mining.
While induced employment captures the wider local economy, the core of coal mining jobs
remains concentrated in formal departmental and contractual workers employed directly by
Coal India Limited and its subsidiaries. These workers form the backbone of coal’s direct
labour force and are distributed across a handful of key coal-bearing states. Table 3.2
provides a state-wise breakdown of this formal workforce, highlighting how employment is
clustered in India, together accounting for well over half of total coal mine jobs.
Table 3.2: Workforce dependent on coal mining
State
Departmental
workers
Contractual
workers
Total formal workers
(Departmental+Contractual)
Jharkhand63,7226,82170,543
Telangana35,46923,16658,635
Madhya Pradesh31,677 21,22452,901
West Bengal40,7024,11144,813
Chhattisgarh28,70213,61442,316
Odisha18,692 21,82340,515
Maharashtra21,1407,94729,087
Uttar Pradesh2,5153,7376,252
Assam43447
Total2,42,662 1,02,4473,45,109
Source: Working group analysis. Mine-wise workforce data has been procured from CIL and its subsidiaries over the
last two years (2022-2024).
* Informal workers vary as per state. For example, in Odisha, it is nearly 1.6 times, while in Jharkhand it is as high as 3
times. Therefore, for estimation in the text, an average of nearly 2 times of the formal workforce has been considered.
Yet the actual footprint of coal goes further. Surveys conducted in coal-mining regions
reveal that each direct job generates multiple induced jobs in the surrounding economy.
Within a 10 km radius of mines, retail, transport, food services, repair shops, and daily wage
activities thrive on coal incomes. In Bokaro (Jharkhand), every direct job supports three
induced jobs; in Korba (Chhattisgarh) the ratio rises to over four; and in Angul (Odisha) it is
just above two. This multiplier effect underscores how coal sustains not only mine workers
but also entire local economies (Table 3.3). 24
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Table 3.3: Ratio of direct and induced jobs in coal mining areas
DistrictDirect jobs Induced jobsRatio
Bokaro (Jharkhand)44,230130,8843.0
Korba (Chhattisgarh)25,441105,1594.1
Angul (Odisha)37,00278,6712.1
Source: Working group (Vol 11) analysis using 2023 mines data.
Looking ahead: mine-level assessments suggest that by 2030, around 178,000 formal jobs
could be impacted and at least double that informally. Without reskilling and social protection,
this can generate acute dislocation in coal belts such as Bokaro, Korba, and Angul.
Coal-Based Thermal Power Plants: Coal-fired thermal power plants (TPPs) form the backbone
of India’s electricity system, accounting for the bulk of installed capacity and generation. As
on 2024-25 the 221.8 GW of coal capacity exists across the country (Institute for Energy
Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), 2025). Applying the CEA’s standard employment
factor of 0.63 personnel per MW, this capacity supports ~1,40,000 formal workers in plant
operations, spanning engineers, operators, technicians, and administrative staff.
However, the formal workforce represents only part of the picture. TPPs are embedded
within extensive local economies of contractors, transporters, maintenance workers, loaders,
and service providers. District-level assessments suggest that informal jobs are at least twice
as numerous as formal jobs. On this assumption, the informal workforce associated with
coal-based TPPs adds up to around 2,80,000 workers. In total, therefore, TPPs sustain close
to 4,20,000 jobs nationwide making them one of the single largest sources of industrial
employment in India. The state-wise distribution of coal TPP employment reflects the
geography of India’s power system (See Table 3.4). Major industrial states dominate:
Table 3.4: State-wise workforce dependent on coal-based thermal power plant generation
StateTotal workers
Uttar Pradesh52,986
Maharashtra46,619
Chhattisgarh44,770
Madhya Pradesh41,580
Gujarat30,414
Tamil Nadu26,767
West Bengal25,490
Andhra Pradesh24,929
Rajasthan20,374
Telangana19,358
Odisha18,144
Karnataka17,917
Bihar17,123 25
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
StateTotal workers
Punjab10,735
Jharkhand10,527
Haryana10,074
Assam1,418
Source: State installed capacity from ICED (2024-25)
This concentration underscores both the economic weight and vulnerability of coal-fired
power. States reliant on coal mining are doubly exposed, hosting not only mines but also
large clusters of thermal power plants. Moreover, while formal jobs are relatively secure, the
majority of TPP-dependent livelihoods are informal and therefore the first to be affected
when units scale back, or switch fuels.
Looking ahead, the age profile of India’s TPP fleet compounds the challenge. While over
three-fourths of current capacity is under 20 years old, by 2040 almost two-thirds of the
existing fleet will cross 25 years of age, approaching or exceeding their design life. Timely
planning is needed to protect the affected workforce.
Fossil-Fuel-Linked Manufacturing and Downstream Industries: Beyond coal mining and
power generation, India’s manufacturing base hosts a set of industries structurally tied to
fossil-fuels, either as feedstock or as dominant energy inputs. These sectors employ millions
of workers, both formal and informal, and are geographically concentrated in states that
also host coal mines and thermal power plants, thereby compounding their vulnerability to
the energy transition.
The Annual Survey of Industries (ASI, 2022–23) records around 7 million formal workers
across fossil-fuel-linked manufacturing sectors (textiles, paper & pulp, basic metals and non-
metallic minerals, petroleum products, chemical products, manufacturing and maintenance
of vehicles), while the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE, 2023–
24) shows an additional 9.9 million informal workers in the same sectors (see Annexure-1
for sector-wise breakup).
(a) Textiles remain the largest single employer, with 1.72 million formal workers and 3.41
million informal workers. Though not often counted as “fossil-fuel industries,” textiles
are highly energy-intensive, especially in synthetic fibres, dyeing, and processing,
which still rely on coal-fired captive plants.
(b) Non-metallic minerals, driven by cement, employ 1.05 million formal workers and
2.61 million informal workers.. Cement production is one of the most coal-intensive
manufacturing processes, with captive thermal units powering kilns.
(c) Basic metals including steel and aluminium employ 1.41 million formal and 0.27 million
informal workers. These industries are structurally tied to coal, both for coking and
as feedstock for captive power.
(d) In energy-linked sectors, petroleum products account for about 1,69,000 formal jobs
and 51,000 informal jobs, clustered around refinery hubs. Chemical products, including
fertilisers, add another 1.06 million formal and 176,000 informal workers, heavily reliant
on natural gas feedstocks and petroleum derivatives. 26
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
(e) The automobile sector spans both manufacturing and downstream services.
Motor vehicle manufacturing provides 1.26 million formal jobs and around 63,000
informal jobs. Downstream, the retail and repair of vehicles-entirely informal adds
over 3.0 million jobs (710,000 in sales, 2.35 million in repair). Taken together, the
auto economy remains one of the largest fossil-fuel-linked employment clusters,
vulnerable to electrification and automation.
In total, these fossil-fuel-linked industries represent a labour force of 16.9 million, with well
over half concentrated in the informal sector. Unlike coal mining and TPPs, where risks arise
from plant closures, these sectors face gradual disruption from technological substitution:
low-carbon cement, green steel, bio-based textiles, and electric vehicles. The challenge is
sharper because the bulk of workers, small contractors, repair shops, unregistered cement
kiln staff, and dyeing unit helpers are informal and thus most exposed to volatility.
3.3 GENDER DIMENSION
Employment patterns in India are uneven across states, sectors, and gender. Women are
concentrated in agriculture (60.6% per PLFS 2022–23 vs. 35.6% men) and informal work,
with limited presence in fossil-fuel linked industries exposed to transition risks. Only 16.2% of
women work in the secondary sector (vs. 28.9% men), and 23.1% in services (vs. 35.6% men).
Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE, 2023–24) reveals informality’s
granularity: women dominate textiles (1.76 million vs. 1.65 million men) but are marginal in
heavy industries like basic metals/petroleum (<25,000 each), vehicle repair (18,465 vs. 2.33
million men), and retail (49,000 vs. 661,000 men). Migration reinforces this. PLFS 2020–21
shows 42.9% of men migrate for work vs. 0.7% women (mostly marriage-related).
These vulnerabilities amplify transition risks (Nayak and Swain, 2023). Women are less
represented in formal fossil-fuel jobs and associated benefits (compensation, retraining),
while their informal livelihoods (coal collection, agriculture, textiles, construction) will be
impacted first.
3.4 PROJECTIONS: THE SHAPE OF WORKFORCE TRANSITION
As India embarks on the Net Zero transition, the employment landscape will undergo fundamental
changes. Global scenarios and country-level models converge on a key insight: clean energy
investments will reshape jobs, but need careful planning to achieve equitable outcomes.
Employment impacts are assessed leveraging inputs from the report on Macroeconomic
Implications (Vol. 2) to analyse labour market changes under both the Current Policies
Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero Scenario (NZS). In the Current Policy Scenario, the broad
employment pattern in energy sector largely remains stable in 2022 with an employment
of 6 million by 2050. Coal, Oil, Gas and Electricity account for the bulk of employment. By
2070, total jobs will be 4 million primarily due to improvements in energy efficiency and
technological progress. As the economy becomes less energy-intensive, fewer workers are
required both in direct energy production and in the upstream and downstream sectors that
supply or depend on energy, leading to a gradual contraction in employment.
However, in the Net Zero Scenario, industry records higher employment than the Current
Policy Scenario, for both skilled and unskilled workers, reflecting rising demand from clean 27
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
technology manufacturing and renewable energy infrastructure. With rapid expansion in
clean energy, energy sector jobs will be 7 million by 2050 (1 million higher than the Current
Policy Scenario) and 4.5 million in 2070 (0.5 million higher than the Current Policy Scenario).
These results are consistent with the IEA’s World Energy Employment 2024, which projects
India’s energy jobs to grow by over 20% under its stated policies scenario, driven largely
by clean energy deployment.
Beyond the energy sector, the Net Zero transition can deliver substantial economy-wide job
gains under supportive policies. Job creation is concentrated in construction, road transport,
and trade. Under the optimistic scenario
1
, construction emerges as the single largest
contributor, adding 4.6 million additional jobs in 2050 compared to the Current Policy
Scenario. This is driven by the labour needs of utility-scale RE build-out, grid expansion, and
low-carbon infrastructure. Road transport and trade also expand, with road transport adding
67,000 additional jobs in 2050 compared to the Current Policy Scenario. Trade contributes
a cumulative 5.2 million jobs additional over the Current Policy Scenario during 2030–2070.
This demonstrates that the Net Zero transition can be a major engine of employment outside
the energy sector when combined with targeted complementary policies
Taken together, these projections show that the transition can be a net engine of job
growth, not just in the energy sector but across the broader economy. However, geographic
mismatches between fossil-fuel energy regions versus renewable energy potential areas will
require deliberate policies for worker relocation, reskilling, and social protection to ensure
that the benefits of transition are inclusive and equitably distributed.
While these projections suggest that the Net Zero transition can generate more jobs
than it displaces, the gains are not automatic. Realising them will depend on two critical
conditions: workers in fossil-fuel-heavy regions being reskilled for emerging opportunities,
and investments flowing into the states where jobs are being lost. Current evidence points
to sharp skill gaps particularly among informal coal workers who remain largely unskilled or
semi-skilled and a geographic mismatch between fossil-fuel led economies and the locations
where renewable energy investments are being deployed. Policies to bridge these gaps are
needed so that projected green jobs at risk concentrated in a few states and sectors can
benefit. These challenges, and the policies needed to address them, are discussed in the
following section.
3.5 CHALLENGES AND SUGGESTIONS
Livelihoods are central to India’s climate resilient development strategy and to its feasibility
and legitimacy. There is a need to address spatially concentrated fossil-fuel dependence,
informality, skills gaps, migration and institutional fragmentation. This will further determine
whether jobs and mobility function as “buffers” that help households navigate climate and
transition risks, or as “amplifiers” that may deepen vulnerability.
1. Spatially concentrated fossil-fuel dependence and uneven emergence of green jobs:
Without deliberate spatial planning, coal and fossil-fuel belts may experience job loss
and fiscal stress, while green growth benefits accrue elsewhere.
1 Net Zero Scenario wherein financing source is foreign, incremental finance is unproductive and subsidies are
provided for deployment of clean energy protecting the low-income households. For details refer to report on
Macroeconomic Implications (Vol. 2). 28
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Suggestions:
(a) Create a national policy framework for worker retraining, relocation support, and
economic diversification in districts affected by industrial decline. Dedicated funding
mechanisms such as the District Mineral Foundation in mining regions can be
leveraged alongside coordinated efforts by the Skill India Mission and the Skill Council
for Green Jobs (SCGJ) to transition workers from declining industries into emerging
green sectors.
(b) Using a national framework, integrated district-level transition plans may be developed
for identified high-risk regions, combining economic diversification strategies,
infrastructure investment, and workforce support, rather than addressing employment,
skills, and investment in isolation. Within these plans, economic diversification can
focus on building new, locally anchored sources of growth that reduce dependence
on fossil-fuel–linked activities and strengthen long-term regional resilience.
2. Informality and inadequate social protection for affected workers:
A large proportion of workers in coal mines, coal logistics, construction and fossil-fuel-
linked manufacturing are informal, employed through contractors or as casual labour,
without written contracts and other benefits. Women are concentrated in precarious
segments, such as coal picking, cleaning, auxiliary services and low-paid manufacturing,
and are often invisible in official employment records.
Suggestions:
(a) Upgrade e-Shram to capture sectoral affiliation, contract type, geolocation including
migration status, and skill levels, linking informal occupations directly to fossil-fuel-
linked industries.
(b) Operationalise social protection entitlements for informal and contract workers
in transition contexts, ensuring that existing schemes are effectively accessible to
workers facing displacement or income loss due to industrial transition.
(c) Establish dedicated transition facilitation units at the local level, to support worker
registration, benefit access, and coordination across schemes, with specific outreach
to women and other invisible worker groups.
3. Fragmented and supply-driven skilling systems:
India’s skilling ecosystem is fragmented across ITIs, the National Skill Development
Corporation, state skill missions, company-led training and Sector Skill Councils.
Curricula often lag behind rapidly evolving needs in renewable energy, storage, electric
mobility, digital grids and green manufacturing. Regions with high fossil-fuel dependent
supply chains have predominantly workers who have skills in manual and semi-skilled
industrial tasks but limited exposure to new technologies, while women face additional
constraints related to mobility, norms and care responsibilities. In this context, generic
training programmes may not generate employment outcomes, while employers report
difficulty finding workers with appropriate skills for green jobs.
Suggestions:
Accelerate development of sector-specific transition skill roadmaps to identify at-
risk occupations in fossil-fuel–linked and carbon-intensive sectors and map pathways 29
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
for reskilling into low-carbon roles, enabling workers and firms to adapt smoothly to
decarbonisation pressures. Key elements of such roadmap to include:
(a) Align state-level skilling initiatives with sectoral decarbonisation roadmaps, identifying
specific occupations and competencies required in renewables, grid modernisation,
electric mobility, energy efficiency, and climate-resilient sectors.
(b) Strengthen employer participation in skilling systems, including curriculum design and
on-the-job training, with incentives for firms that commit to hiring and mentoring
workers from transitioning regions.
(c) Introduce targeted provisions for women and youth, including safe transport, childcare
support, and flexible training schedules, to ensure equitable access to emerging
employment opportunities in the low-carbon economy.
(d) Prioritise on-the-job training and practice-oriented skilling to upskill the existing
workforce, particularly in emerging technologies and new production processes,
ensuring that training leads to employable competencies rather than stand-alone
certifications.
4. Climate- and transition-induced migration:
Migrants often settle in informal urban neighbourhoods without adequate housing,
water, sanitation, waste management and health services. Labour markets at destinations
frequently absorb them into low-wage work in construction, transport, informal services
and gig platforms. These conditions can turn migration from a coping strategy into a
driver of new vulnerabilities.
Suggestions:
(a) Local planning frameworks may recognise climate- and transition-induced migrants
as a priority group for access to affordable urban housing, basic services and social
protection, building on initiatives such as the One Nation One Ration Card to improve
portability of entitlements.
(b) Implementation of the newly notified Labour Codes may prioritise high-migrant sectors
through accelerated rollout, focused inspections, and enhanced compliance monitoring.
This strengthens occupational safety, wage protection, and working conditions in
construction, small manufacturing, logistics, domestic work, and gig-based services.
Enforcement mechanisms may further adapt to informality, subcontracting, and
platform-based employment models that disproportionately affect migrant workers. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition HEALTH EQUITY AND
WELLBEING IN INDIA’S
NET ZERO TRANSITION
4 32Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Over the past decade, the country has achieved significant progress in socio-economic
development and health outcomes. Efforts to improve access to healthcare, sanitation,
and nutrition have led to notable reductions in child and maternal mortality and a decline
in communicable diseases, supporting the goals of inclusive growth and sustainable
development.
India’s healthcare transformation is guided by the vision of “Health for All”. The government
has made unprecedented strides in expanding access, improving quality, and ensuring
affordability. Landmark initiatives like Ayushman Bharat- Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana
(PM-JAY), Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission (ABDM), PM-ABHIM, POSHAN Abhiyaan, and
Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY), PM JANMAN, eSanjeevani, and many others
have strengthened healthcare systems, improved maternal and child health indicators, and
enhanced nutrition security through community participation and technological innovation,
particularly in rural and underserved regions (PIB, 2025; PIB, 2026). Investments in
infrastructure, digital health, immunisation, and medical education have created a robust
foundation for future health security. India’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign marked a
turning point in India’s public healthcare journey, delivering over 2.2 billion doses through
indigenous vaccines and the digital CoWIN platform at unmatched global scale and speed
(PIB, 2025).
India’s transition to clean energy presents significant health co-benefits. For instance, urban
greening through trees, parks, and reflective surfaces reduces reduce heat stress, improve air
quality, and lowers heat-related illness in cities (MoHUA, 2014, MoHUA, 2021). Complementary
measures such as green buildings, reflective roofs, and permeable surfaces enhance indoor
comfort, manage stormwater, and support urban biodiversity. Further, investments in public
transport like metro rail, electric vehicles, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, and walking
and cycling infrastructure are delivering better air quality, noise reduction, and physical
activity benefits in Indian cities (NITI Aayog, RMI, 2022). These shifts improve safety and
accessibility, especially for women, children, and the elderly, while contributing to long-term
urban health and resilience.
The shift to cleaner fuels for cooking lowers rates of respiratory infections and eye irritation,
particularly among women and children. It also lessens the burden of fuel collection, freeing
time for education and livelihoods. India has made significant progress in expanding access
to modern cooking energy, particularly through large-scale distribution of LPG connections
under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) (PMUY, 2024; PIB, 2024).
4
Health Equity and
Wellbeing in India’s
Net Zero Transition 33
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Further, the transition to organic and climate-smart farming reduces chemical exposure,
lowers emissions, improves soil quality, and improves nutrition security. Reduced crop
residue burning further improves seasonal air quality (Patel et al., 2022). Health benefits are
strongest for women farmers, rural households, and children. Renewable energy deployment
strengthens health infrastructure by improving power affordability and reliability for clinics,
vaccine cold chains, and emergency services, particularly in remote areas (Concessao et al.,
2023). Better energy access supports maternal and child health outcomes and enhances
healthcare equity.
While there are noticeable improvements and prospective benefits from transition to a
Net Zero economy, climate change has emerged as a major challenge to public health.
Rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and deteriorating air quality are affecting
key determinants of health such as safe drinking water, nutritious food, and healthy living
conditions. These impacts are particularly severe for vulnerable groups including women,
children, the elderly, and socio-economically disadvantaged populations with limited
adaptive capacity.
The following section deals with vulnerabilities that arise mainly from climate change. It
elaborates on the impact on human health, the existing policy landscape, followed by
suggestions to strengthen climate resilient health systems.
4.1 VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ENERGY TRANSITION ON HEALTH
Vulnerability to climate change in India arises from the intersection of environmental hazards,
social and economic inequality, demographic profile, and the capacity of local systems to
absorb shocks. The section below discusses direct and indirect impacts of climate change.
I. Direct Impacts
(a) Extreme Heat
In India, about 57% of the districts, home to 76% of the country’s population,
are currently at high to very high risk from extreme heat (Centre for Science
and Environment, 2024). Rising temperatures, intensified by recurring heatwaves,
represent India’s most immediate and escalating climate-related health threat.
According to data from the National Centre for Disease Control (2024), there
were 48,156 suspected heatstroke cases in 2024. A total of 430 heatstroke related
deaths (comprising 161 confirmed and 269 suspected) were reported nationwide
in the same.
Urban Heat Island effects, where cities trap heat during the day and release it at
night, thus increasing nighttime temperatures further compound risks in densely
populated cities. The rise in very warm nights is most noticeable in districts with
a large population (over 10 lakh), which are often home to Tier I and II cities
(Prabhu et al, 2025). Over the last decade, nearly 70% of districts experienced an
additional five very warm nights per summer (March to June). In comparison, only
~28% of districts experienced five or more additional very hot days. 34
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Table 4.1 shows few cities that have experienced additional very warm nights per
summer in the last decade (2012-2022).
Table 4.1: Heat Island impact in major cities
CityAdditional Very Warm Nights Per Summer
Mumbai15
Bengaluru11
Bhopal7
Jaipur7
Delhi6
Chennai4
By 2050, 50% of India’s population is expected to live in urban areas (UN-DESA
2018). Heat island effects therefore pose a serious threat to the population as
it can lead to a higher incidence of heat-related illnesses and cardiovascular
morbidity, especially among infants, the elderly, and those residing in inadequately
ventilated settlements (Romanello et al., 2025). National and local studies,
including the Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan, have established a direct linkage
between the intensity and duration of heatwave periods and spikes in mortality
rates, underscoring the necessity for city-level adaptation planning (Hess et al.,
2018; Azhar et al., 2014; Knowlton et al., 2014).
(b) Extreme Weather Events
Extreme weather events, including floods and cyclonic storms, are increasing and
are known to inflict acute and large-scale health impacts. This often precipitates
mass displacement, injury, loss of essential healthcare access, and outbreaks of
water and vector-borne diseases, and economic losses (Roxy et al., 2017). The
Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) reports that Assam’s 2022
floods impacted 8.85 million people, with a decade-high 181 fatalities in the same
year. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) pertaining to natural disasters
and their related damage costs for the period 1990-2022 shows that India was
among the worst affected countries in the world. The data further suggests that
floods and storms featured as the top two natural disasters in India between the
same period and accounted for the highest share of damage costs at 63.10% and
31.52% respectively (Goldar et al., 2024).
(c) Poor Air Quality
In 2019, air pollution was associated with approximately 1.67 million deaths, with
ambient particulate matter acknowledged as a primary driver of both acute and
chronic respiratory illness, leading to 0.98 million deaths (Pandey et al., 2019).
Climate change is projected to increase this burden through longer pollen seasons,
increased ozone and allergen production, and synergistic effects of heat stress
and air quality. 35
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
II. Indirect Impacts
(a) Infectious Diseases
Climate change is expanding the spatial and temporal distribution of vector-borne
diseases such as malaria, dengue, and chikungunya (MoEFCC, 2023). Incidents of
malaria have been reported in the Himalayas, while dengue now spreads year-
round, with a 13% and 53% rise in transmission potential for Aedes aegypti and
Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, respectively (Lancet Countdown, 2024). Further,
the report states that coastal Vibrio pathogen risk has surged by 66%, threatening
23 million people.
The spread and persistence of these infections are compounded by the constraints
in vector control, fragmented surveillance systems, and changing human migration
patterns. The intertwined vulnerabilities of agricultural-dependent communities
reflect not only diminished food availability but also heightened exposure to
pathogens through compromised sanitation infrastructures.
(b) Food and water insecurity
Climate variability threatens progress in food safety and nutrition across India
(Basu et al., 2022). Altered rainfall and recurring droughts reduce crop yields
and lower food quality. This has the potential to increase malnutrition and food
insecurity among the socio-economically weaker households. Women and girls
experience additional vulnerability, unequal resource access, and pressure from
climate-related migration (M S Swaminathan Research Foundation, 2024). Further,
there is heightened risk of foodborne and waterborne diseases. Children may face
elevated rates of stunting, wasting, and micronutrient deficiencies.
(c) Mental Health and Psychosocial Wellbeing
The health burden of climate change extends to mental health and psychosocial
domains. Direct exposure to cyclones, floods, and heatwaves creates immediate
psychological trauma. Chronic stresses from environmental degradation, economic
insecurity, and displacement, fuel longer-term psychopathology, including anxiety,
depression, and trauma-related disorders. Among agricultural communities,
drought-driven losses have been associated with increased suicide rates.
(d) Health System Strain
The growing frequency and severity of climate events threaten the operational
resilience of India’s health infrastructure. Healthcare systems in more than 40%
of Indian districts are at high climate-induced risk (CEEW and UNICEF, 2025).
The report states that over 2,00,000 public healthcare facilities are vulnerable to
extreme climate events such as floods and cyclones. 36
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
(e) Displacement
Climate events are an increasingly important driver of internal migration. As per
the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC, 2025), between 2015 and
2024, ~32 million people in India were internally displaced due to natural disasters,
mostly floods and storms. In 2024, estimates suggest over 5 million people were
displaced by floods, droughts, and storms (IDMC, 2025). Migrants from coastal,
riverine, and drought-hit regions often lose access to public health entitlements
and community health programs as they move into peri-urban or city locations.
Children in migrant families experience disrupted vaccination schedules and
schooling, leading to cascading long-term disadvantages in health and well-being
(M S Swaminathan Research Foundation, 2024).
4.2 CURRENT POLICY LANDSCAPE
India’s approach to managing climate and health risks is underpinned by an evolving policy
framework and statutory mandates, supported by multisectoral missions and operational
protocols.
(a) National Action Plans and programmes
India’s legislative and policy architecture for climate adaptation and health is structured
around the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), which mandates multi-
sectoral missions and integrates adaptation targets in water, agriculture, energy,
sustainable habitat, and human health. This vision is operationalised through State
Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCC), which require each state to assess local
vulnerabilities and delineate tailored interventions in line with national priorities.
A pivotal advancement is the creation and scaling-up of the National Programme on
Climate Change and Human Health (NPCCHH) under the Ministry of Health & Family
Welfare. NPCCHH establishes a national mandate for states to conduct district- and
population-specific health vulnerability assessments, integrate climate risks into public
health surveillance and planning, and develop cross-sectoral health adaptation strategies.
The programme prioritises gender sensitivity, social inclusion, and migration, and
issues specific technical guidance for climate-sensitive disease control, infrastructure
resilience, and capacity-building within state and district health systems.
As NPCCHH becomes embedded in practice, all states are now required to develop
dedicated State Action Plans on Climate Change and Human Health. This is to ensure
systematic and locally responsive integration of climate-health adaptation across
administrative levels and regions.
(b) Heat Action Plans and Multi-Hazard Early Warning
Heat Action Plans have been institutionalised in more than 20 states and over one
hundred cities. These plans legally codify the procedures for issuing graduated, colour-
coded public health alerts, with the India Meteorological Department responsible for
real-time forecasting. 37
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Under the Disaster Management Act, 2005, the National Disaster Management
Authority (NDMA) requires district and local agencies to maintain readiness through
mandatory drills and capacity-building. It utilises a Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)
based integrated system, known as Sachet, to trigger public health surge protocols
and disseminate real-time emergency warnings to the public.
Evidence suggests coordination across agencies remains uneven, with health surge
protocols needing better integration amid data silos. The Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan
is a success story where coordination challenges are overcome through combination
of measures (See Box-3).
Box-3: Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan
The Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan (HAP) stands as South Asia’s first comprehensive early
warning system for extreme heat, in 2013 following a lethal 2010 heatwave. The plan uses
a multi-tiered approach with color-coded alerts (Yellow, Orange, Red) based on IMD
forecasts and temperature thresholds. The IMD provides a 7-day forecast which informs
the activation of the plan. Beyond simple warnings, the plan integrates extensive public
outreach to vulnerable slum populations, healthcare training for treating heatstroke, and
infrastructure adaptations like the Cool Roofs Program, which uses reflective coatings to
lower indoor temperatures. It is credited with preventing over 1,100 deaths annually and
serving as a blueprint for dozens of cities across India to mitigate the rising threats of
climate change and urban heat islands (Azhar et al., 2014).
HAP has evolved into a global benchmark. It demonstrates the power of low-cost, scalable
interventions: early warning systems, inter-agency coordination, and public awareness
campaigns to save countless lives at minimal expense. Further, more importantly, its
approach shows that learning from past disasters, integrating scientific forecasts with
indigenous coping practices, and maintaining flexible, community-centered plans is key
to surviving a hotter future. Further, standardizing these behaviours into official action
plans makes them easier to scale and implement.
(c) Air Quality Governance and Clean Air Policy
India’s air quality management regime is structured around the National Clean Air
Programme (NCAP), launched in 2019. It requires the preparation and implementation
of city-level Clean Air Action Plans targeting PM10 reductions of up to 40% by 2026
from 2017 baselines. These plans include mandatory targets for particulate pollution
reduction, vehicle emission controls, industrial compliance, road dust mitigation, and
solid waste management. The opportunities for enhancement include prioritizing
PM2.5 alongside PM10, accelerating source apportionment studies, optimizing fund
allocation across sectors like industries and biomass, institute a formal process to
review and update every two years the list of cities classified as “non-attainment”
under NCAP, stricter emission standards, and airshed-based regional collaboration. 38
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
(d) Climate-Resilient Cooling and Infrastructure Codes
Sustainable cooling is institutionalised through the India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP),
which aims to provide sustainable cooling and thermal comfort for all by FY 2037-
38. The targets include reducing cooling demand, refrigerant demand, and cooling
energy requirements, alongside training of service technicians. The policy mandates
integration of passive cooling measures like enhanced insulation and natural ventilation,
in new public and health sector buildings, leveraging the Energy Conservation Building
Code. It prescribes technical standards for health system cold chains, including solar-
powered storage at 2-8°C for vaccines and supplies under the National Cold Chain
Management Programme, aligned with WHO guidelines.
(e) Agricultural Adaptation and Crop Residue Management
The National Mission on Sustainable Agriculture provides the policy anchor for climate-
smart agriculture, resource conservation, and organic and natural farming. State-level
regulatory approaches, including Sikkim’s legislation for organic certification and
targeted residue management protocols in Punjab and Haryana, have concretised
mission objectives in law and operational practice.
(f) Disaster Management and Health Facility Preparedness
India’s disaster preparedness framework is regulated through NDMA guidelines and
statutory provisions in the Disaster Management Act. Annual simulation exercises,
health and infrastructure resilience protocols, and capacity-building modules are
now routine requirements for health system preparedness. The India Meteorological
Department is mandated to provide seasonal and real-time impact forecasts, which
serve as operational triggers for activating district- and health sector response plans.
4.3 CHALLENGES AND SUGGESTIONS
1. Inconsistent Vulnerability Assessment and Surveillance
In India, existing district assessments, such as those by the Department of Science
and Technology, suggests the use of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth
Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) framework to address climate vulnerabilities. However,
this falls short of standardized, health-specific mandates across states. Methodological
inconsistencies, the use of disparate indicators, limited inclusion of social determinants
such as gender, and migration, and the absence of longitudinal monitoring or health-
outcome validation restrict the comparability and effectiveness of vulnerability mapping.
Suggestions
(a) There is a need to develop and mandate a single, robust vulnerability assessment
framework to establish a consistent national foundation for risk prioritisation. This
framework may incorporate internationally recognised risk frameworks (e.g., IPCC
AR5) customised to Indian district realities, under the leadership of NPCCHH,
ensuring standardisation across states.
(b) The standardised framework may be integrated into district-level surveillance
systems across the National Health Mission (NHM), Integrated Disease Surveillance 39
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Programme (IDSP), and NPCCHH modules. This integration can ensure digital
tracking of climate-sensitive diseases with mandatory gender, age, and migration
disaggregated reporting.
2. Lack of Climate-Resilient Health Infrastructure
Large segments of public health infrastructure lack climate-resilient design and
functionality, with significant deficits in backup power, reliable water and cooling,
elevated construction in flood-prone areas, and disruption preparedness.
India’s NPCCHH and NHM promote climate awareness and capacity-building in health
facilities, yet public health infrastructure standards do not yet mandate comprehensive
climate-proofing for high-risk districts, leaving gaps in retrofitting and real-time resilience
monitoring.
Suggestions:
(a) There is a need to urgently revise Indian Public Health Standards (IPHS) to include
mandatory climate-proofing specifications for all new and existing facilities
in high-risk districts. These specifications may address backup power, water
security, cooling systems, and elevated designs in flood-prone areas, building on
NPCCHH’s foundational guidelines.
(b) A real-time climate resilience monitoring system may be integrated with Integrated
Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) and NHM to track infrastructure readiness
and service continuity metrics. This will further ensure that NPCCHH can effectively
safeguard healthcare functionality during extreme weather events.
3. Unprepared Health Workforce
Frontline healthcare personnel lack routine training in climate-health risks, emergency
protocols, and gender- or migration-sensitive outreach, undermining preparedness in
high-burden districts.
Suggestions:
(a) Mainstream climate–health and emergency preparedness modules across
accredited medical and public health curricula, complemented by periodic
refresher training and mandatory preparedness drills for in-service health workers
and facility managers. These drills may be institutionalised as a routine operational
requirement and linked to annual IPHS accreditation, shifting NPCCHH capacity-
building from awareness to action-oriented preparedness.
4. Financing Not Aligned to Climate Risk
India’s NPCCHH and NHM support climate awareness and infrastructure resilience, yet
health and adaptation budgets lack vulnerability-based allocation formulas.
Suggestions:]
(a) Use earmarked NHM funding as a catalytic lever to blend multilateral and
philanthropic finance and crowd in larger-scale investment for climate-resilient
health infrastructure while linking allocations to performance-based monitoring
and measurable resilience outcomes.
(b) Targeted climate-health insurance pilots may be launched for low-income,
disaster-prone populations leveraging NHM administrative networks. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTS
FOR INDIA’S NET ZERO
TRANSITION
5 42Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
This section focuses on why behavioural insights are critical to achieving India’s long-term
Net Zero transition. It first outlines key programmatic interventions undertaken by the
Government of India, followed by an examination of sector-specific behavioural challenges
and targeted, actionable suggestions. The section emphasises the need to integrate
behavioural insights into broader climate and energy policy frameworks, highlighting how
policy design must balance individual autonomy with collective action to deliver durable
emissions reductions.
Accelerating climate impacts in India are coinciding with rapid economic growth and
urbanisation, driving up energy demand and emissions in ways that cannot be addressed
by technological solutions alone. The year 2024 was the hottest ever recorded globally,
with several Indian states experiencing sustained temperatures above 40°C (Mohan, 2025).
Beyond immediate health risks, extreme heat carries substantial economic consequences:
recent estimates suggest that heat stress could reduce India’s GDP by up to 4.5% by 2030,
reflecting losses in labour productivity, rising cooling demand, and mounting stress on
energy systems (Prabhu et al., 2025).
These climate pressures intersect with profound shifts in consumption patterns. Ownership
of air conditioners owing to climate change and comfort has doubled in the last 4 years
reaching 15 million by 2025 (Gokhale, 2025). Same is the case with other household
appliances and private vehicles which have recorded strong growth.
This growth is occurring alongside continued urbanisation, with the urban population
projected to reach nearly 65% by 2070. India’s sustained nominal dollar GDP growth of 8%
(1993-2025) has expanded middle-class aspirations for comfort, mobility, and convenience.
Although per capita electricity consumption remains below the global average, it is projected
to increase 4-5 times by 2050 (refer to Sectoral Insights: Power - Vol 7 report), driven by
economy-wide electrification and rising demand from cooling, transport, and appliances.
Regional disparities further complicate this trajectory: northern regions import significantly
more power during peak summer months to meet cooling needs, while rural areas face the
dual challenge of expanding energy access without entrenching unsustainable consumption
patterns.
Taken together, these trends highlight a critical reality-India’s energy transition is increasingly
shaped by how energy is demanded and used, not only by how it is produced. Rising
consumption linked to cooling, mobility, and appliances reflects everyday behavioural
choices that aggregate into system-level impacts. As a result, supply-side expansion and
efficiency improvements, while essential, are unlikely on their own to deliver the scale or
persistence of emissions reductions required.
5
Behavioural Insights
for India’s Net Zero
Transition 43
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
India’s progress in deploying clean energy technologies and improving energy efficiency
remains both necessary and significant. However, the effectiveness of these technological
investments ultimately depends on behavioural responses on how households and
firms adopt new technologies, adjust consumption patterns, and interact with evolving
infrastructure. Behavioural barriers such as sensitivity to upfront costs, scepticism toward
unfamiliar technologies, prevailing social norms, and entrenched habits frequently slow
adoption or weaken impact. Moreover, rebound effects can erode efficiency gains when
lower operating costs lead to increased usage. Embedding behavioural insights into policy
design can therefore amplify the effectiveness of technological interventions by shaping
demand, guiding choices, and sustaining low-carbon practices over time.
5.1 GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES
India has behaviour-centric schemes, which operationalise nudges through subtle cues
leveraging social norms, defaults, and peer dynamics to foster mindful consumption and
collective responsibility for sustainable development. These initiatives underpin the goals
of Viksit Bharat@2047 and Net Zero emissions by 2070, transforming policy goals into
scalable voluntary habits via emotional appeals, choice architecture, and real-time feedback.
From Swachh Bharat Abhiyan’s sanitation revolution to UJALA’s LED penetration and Jal
Jeevan Mission’s water security, they establish blueprints amplified by Mission LiFE’s national
architecture of targeted interventions across flagship programmes.
The Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, serves as the foundational behavioural template exemplifying
effective behavioural intervention at scale (UNICEF, 2020). By leveraging social proofing
and emotional appeal, the mission transitioned sanitation from a government mandate
into a “people’s movement” driven by community ownership. It effectively utilized choice
architecture and dignity-focused nudges to transform deep-seated habits, establishing a
scalable blueprint.
The Bureau of Energy Efficiency’s star labelling programme provides a core energy nudge
through prominent star ratings displayed on appliances, acting as a visual shorthand that
reduces decision complexity for consumers at the point of purchase. By translating technical
efficiency information into an intuitive rating scale, the programme enables households
to factor long term electricity costs into upfront buying decisions. According to the India
Energy Scenario for the Year 2023-24 report, BEE’s energy efficiency interventions delivered
electricity savings of over 320 billion units and avoided more than 320 million tonnes
of carbon dioxide emissions in that year, with the Standards and Labelling programme
constituting a significant contributor.
Complementing this, the Ministry of Power’s initiative to set default air conditioner
temperatures at 24˚C establishes energy efficient behaviour as the path of least resistance.
While users retain full control to modify settings, the default embeds conservation as the
effortless norm, reinforcing efficiency gains achieved through appliance standards and
consumer information. Together, these measures demonstrate how well-designed institutional
nudges can mainstream energy conservation by shaping everyday consumption choices
while delivering measurable national scale energy and emissions savings.
In 2015, the Government of India introduced the UJALA scheme, successfully distributing
over 36.87 crore LED bulbs as of early 2025 to over 9.2 crore households through a “demand 44
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
aggregation” model that reduced retail prices by nearly 90% (Ministry of Power, 2025). This
multi-channel nudge strategy featured kiosks highlighting bill savings, door-to-door swaps,
social proof messaging (“neighbours switching to LEDs”), and celebrity endorsements
normalising thrift.
Building on these principles, the Jal Jeevan Mission, launched in 2019, places nudges at the
core of its water security strategy by providing functional tap connections to over 15.72
crore (81%) rural households as of late 2025 (Ministry of Jal Shakti, 2025). It fosters a Jan
Andolan (people’s movement) through community-led monitoring by village Jal Saakhis,
hands-on chaupal demonstrations of conservation techniques, real-time peer-comparison
dashboards on usage patterns prompting voluntary rationing, and Pani Samitis enforcing
social accountability via village-level water budgets and rainwater harvesting competitions.
The GiveItUp campaign mobilised voluntary LPG subsidy relinquishment among affluent
households through emotional appeals tied to national service, public leaderboards creating
bandwagon effects, and patriotic messaging that redistributed resources equitably (GiveItUp
Campaign, 2015). PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana exemplifies procedural simplification with
a single-window digital portal that slashes adoption hurdles, paired with “Apna Bijli, Apne
Ghar” framing that taps pride in self-reliance to overcome rooftop solar inertia.
Community-level initiatives like the National Energy Conservation Awards and Gram Urja
Swaraj Abhiyaan amplify social proof by spotlighting local champions such as farmers
with solar pumps or energy-efficient panchayats, fostering emulation within peer networks
(Bureau of Energy Efficiency, 2025; Panchayati Raj Institutions, 2022). Meanwhile, the Smart
Meter National Programme delivers real-time usage feedback alongside neighbourhood
benchmarks, turning abstract consumption data into immediate, actionable insights that
prompt household-level self-correction (Economic Times EnergyWorld, 2024).
India launched Mission LiFE in 2022 as its largest-ever behavioural intervention, creating
a comprehensive national architecture that unifies sectoral behaviour change initiatives
into a coordinated system. Recently, the nodal ministry MoEFCC created a compendium
that recommends embedding targeted nudges into flagship programmes for mass-scale
behavioural change (Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, 2025). The
strategy targets 80% of villages and urban local bodies achieving LiFE compliance by
2028 and one billion global pledges through voluntary adoption. For instance, under the
Jal Jeevan Mission, it is proposed to establish village-level water usage dashboards and
focus on RO reject water reuse campaigns. The Mid-Day Meals programme is suggested
to adopt millet-based menu defaults with integrated nutrition education for 12 crore
schoolchildren. For AMRUT, the suggestions include SHG-led water quality testing, “Drink
from Tap” awareness drives, and waste segregation incentive systems across 4,000 cities.
Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) programme is suggested to include farmer
irrigation audits promoting “More Crop Per Drop” efficiency. Indian Railways is envisioned
to consider station-wise waste management rankings and single-use plastic bans at 7,000
stations. Further, the Ujjwala scheme is suggested to explore SMS and app-based LPG refill
reminders for 10 crore beneficiary households.
Beyond scheme-level interventions, the compendium further recommends policy measures to
standardise behaviour change across government institutions. Corporate Social Responsibility
(CSR) guidelines can prioritise LiFE-aligned projects in waste reduction, energy efficiency,
and sustainable agriculture. Blue and Green Star Ratings are suggested to certify water and 45
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
energy-efficient restaurants and hotels, guiding consumer preferences. Further, adoptions
of green procurement standards are suggested across government institutions. Finally, the
Meri LiFE portal is suggested to facilitate real-time tracking via competitive individual and
village leaderboards, with data aggregation drawing from participating ministries’ scheme
implementations. It is suggested that sustainability metrics be integrated into existing
monitoring and evaluation frameworks.
Together, these interventions showcase India’s evolving behavioural policy ecosystem, where
nudges harness social norms, defaults, and peer dynamics to complement regulatory and
fiscal tools. This approach not only scales voluntary sustainable actions across diverse
populations but also ensures equitable transitions, embedding mindful resource use as a
cultural cornerstone for development.
5.2 CHALLENGES AND SUGGESTIONS
India’s energy transition demands a comprehensive approach addressing both supply and
demand dimensions alongside systemic behavioural barriers. This section examines specific
challenges in implementing behavioural interventions across demand sectors like transport,
buildings, industry, agriculture, and supply considerations, and cross-cutting systemic issues.
Each challenge is paired with targeted suggestions that focus specifically on behavioural
nudges informed by India’s Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy and Mission
LiFE principles.
1. Entrenched Travel Habits and Status-Driven Vehicle Ownership
The transport sector faces deeply embedded behavioural barriers to modal shift.
Personal vehicles remain symbols of status and autonomy, while public transport is
associated with inconvenience and lower social standing. Commuters exhibit strong
habitual preference for private vehicles, reinforced by social norms that equate car
ownership with economic success. Electric vehicle adoption encounters behavioural
obstacles including range anxiety, technology scepticism, and reluctance to change
established routines despite improving performance metrics and government incentives.
Suggestions:
(a) Leverage visible community leadership and peer endorsements through
campaigns showcasing respected community members, technology executives,
and public officials using public transport regularly. The Personal2Public campaign
in Bengaluru demonstrated how Ministers and corporate leaders taking metro
services twice weekly catalysed a broader modal shift, creating social proof that
sustainable transport choices are compatible with professional success (The
Hindu, 2024).
(b) Address misconceptions through targeted testimonial campaigns featuring peer
experiences to counter scepticism about public transport reliability and EV
performance. Focus messaging on addressing specific concerns like comfort,
safety, time efficiency rather than generic environmental appeals.
(c) Integrate behavioural nudges in digital platforms by designing ticketing applications
with default options favouring sustainable modes. Mobility apps could display 46
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
public transport options first, require additional clicks to access private vehicle
alternatives, and show comparative journey times with externalities factored in.
The broader suggestions are further discussed in the Report on Sectoral Insights: Transport
(Vol. 3).
2. Behavioural Inertia and Information Gaps in the Building sector
Building occupants and owners display pronounced inertia in adopting energy-
efficient practices due to established habits, unclear information, high upfront cost, and
perceived inconvenience. The split incentive problem compounds behavioural barriers,
particularly in rental settings where efficiency investment costs fall on landlords while
energy savings accrue to tenants.
At the same time, efficiency improvements can generate rebound effects consistent
with the Jevons Paradox. As appliances and buildings become more energy-efficient
and affordable, households may increase usage intensity or shift toward larger or more
energy-intensive options, partially offsetting expected energy savings. Moral licensing
further weakens outcomes, as individuals who adopt one pro-environmental behaviour
may feel justified in engaging in less sustainable practices elsewhere.
Suggestions:
(a) Enable transparent energy performance disclosure through BEE Star Ratings
or other suitable indicators to empower market participants with energy cost
and efficiency information. These disclosures create market signals by making
efficiency costs salient to prospective buyers and tenants.
(b) Deploy personalised efficiency nudges using smart building systems to deliver
contextualised reminders prompting energy-saving actions, adjusting thermostat
settings (proposed target of 24 degrees as default option), switching off unused
equipment, optimising natural lighting. Promoting the use of Time-of-Day tariffs
can also incentivize the efficient energy use.
(c) Introduce green defaults in affluent contexts by implementing automatic opt-in
for low-carbon building materials. Given income disparities, careful calibration is
required, with initial focus on higher-income segments before broader deployment.
(d) Efficiency programmes should be paired with consumption-awareness messaging
that highlights appropriate usage norms and the cumulative impact of individual
consumption choices to address rebound and moral licensing effects. Messaging should
move beyond single-technology efficiency to address overall energy demand patterns.
The broader suggestions are further discussed in the Reports on - Sectoral Insights:
Buildings (Vol. 5) and Power (Vol. 7).
3. Weak Behavioural Signals for Sustainable Procurement in Industry
Hard-to-abate sectors including steel and cement lack strong behavioural cues for
low-carbon choices. Procurement decisions prioritise cost over carbon intensity, with
social and reputational factors playing minimal roles. Absence of standardised carbon
footprint labelling makes informed low-carbon choices difficult for procurement. 47
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Suggestions:
(a) Deploy standardised Product Carbon Footprint (PCF) labelling with clear,
comparable carbon labels on industrial end-use products, especially targeting
emission-intensive materials like cement, steel, aluminium, textiles and chemicals.
Focus initially on business-to-business contexts such as procurement portals and
construction tenders, where label visibility enables comparison and promotes
informed low-carbon choices.
(b) Expand recognition and benchmarking platforms by creating detailed, sector-
specific carbon intensity benchmarks (currently being undertaken under Carbon
Credit Trading Scheme for select sectors). Enhance peer comparison tools with
features such as gamification and public recognition to boost industry engagement.
(c) Facilitate voluntary public pledges through commitment frameworks (Science
Based Target initiative- SBTi, RE100) enabling industries to publicly pledge
specific carbon reduction targets, creating accountability through stakeholder
scrutiny and competitive pressures.
4. Risk Aversion and Limited Social Proof in Agriculture
Farmers exhibit behavioural reluctance toward climate-smart practices due to risk
aversion, limited exposure to successful implementations, and entrenched traditional
methods. Social proof and trusted networks significantly influence agricultural decisions,
yet visible demonstrations of climate-smart benefits remain scarce.
Suggestions:
(a) Design bundled discounts on climate-smart packages to facilitate uptake of
efficient agricultural practices (Drip and Sprinkle, use of drones etc) by offering
them as single packages through cooperatives or government schemes. Bundling
reduces decision fatigue while improving affordability.
(b) Encourage and recognise public commitments by creating structured platforms
via farmer producer organisations, gram sabhas, or digital pledges for farmers,
especially women-led groups, to publicly commit to climate-resilient practices. The
JEEViKA programme in Bihar exemplifies how women self-help groups can champion
clean energy adoption through social networks. This has included facilitating
access to solar lighting and cooking technologies, training local entrepreneurs and
technicians, and creating livelihood opportunities linked to clean energy supply
chains. The programme has leveraged its extensive SHG network to promote clean
energy use and improve livelihoods, demonstrating the effectiveness of women-led
groups as catalysts for sustainable energy adoption in rural areas.
(c) Enable farmer-led demonstration plots (Agri-PV) to establish visible success
stories within specific agro-climatic contexts, using peer educators and local
agricultural leaders to communicate benefits through trusted relationships.
5. Limited Consumer Engagement and Awareness of Impact in the Electricity sector
In the National Smart Grid Mission, consumer engagement with demand response and
efficiency measures remains inadequate. Households and businesses underestimate
their capacity to influence consumption patterns, leading to behavioural inertia. The
complexity of energy systems obscures connections between individual actions an d
broader environmental impacts. 48
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Suggestions:
(a) Deploy comparative energy reports with neighbourhood baselines through monthly
household reports comparing consumption against neighbourhood averages. The
VidyutRakshaka intervention in Bengaluru achieved 7% reduction in average monthly
consumption across 2,000 participating households, savings equivalent to avoiding
604 million kilowatt hours annually if scaled citywide (Malaviya, et al. 2019).
(b) Create smart meter feedback loops providing real-time usage insights via mobile
applications, including personalised tips and alerts when consumption spikes.
Real-time feedback empowers users to self-correct and build energy-conscious
habits more effectively than delayed monthly bills.
(c) Implement default green appliance scheduling by automatically setting smart
appliances to operate during periods of high renewable energy availability, making
sustainable energy use the effortless default choice for consumers.
(d) Highlight collective achievements to foster sense of community impact by
communicating aggregate community savings in concrete terms, tonnes of CO ₂
avoided, equivalent households powered. Messages emphasising community
achievement prove more motivating than individual impact statistics.
6. Weak Implementation Architecture and Limited Scalability
Mission LiFE’s implementation architecture is not yet aligned with the social realities
required for large-scale behavioural transformation. Progress toward mobilising one
billion citizens by 2028 remains difficult to assess. There is a need for clear metrics,
accountability mechanisms, and outcome-oriented monitoring systems. Equity concerns
are often structural rather than incidental: many promoted behaviours reflect middle-
and upper-income consumption norms, while low-income households face material
constraints, social risks, and limited decision-making power that shape what behaviours
are feasible or desirable.
These limitations are evident in energy-use practices that remain deeply embedded in
cultural meanings and social identities. For instance, the continued use of traditional
cooking methods despite LPG availability illustrates how taste preferences, ritual
significance, and identity can override economic incentives and technological access. Such
dynamics highlight the inadequacy of behaviour-change strategies that focus narrowly
on information provision without engaging underlying social norms and power relations.
These challenges are further compounded by weak systems for learning and adaptation.
Behavioural interventions under Mission LiFE need to be supported by baseline data,
control groups, or longitudinal tracking. This will enable to distinguish symbolic
participation from sustained behavioural change.
Suggestions:
(a) Mainstream Mission LiFE across government programmes: Integrate Mission
LiFE principles into existing government schemes by aligning policy objectives,
institutional responsibilities, and funding mechanisms. Embedding behavioural
nudges within housing, energy, transport, water, agriculture, and livelihoods
programmes will enable scale and durability, avoiding treatment of Mission LiFE as 49
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
a standalone or peripheral initiative. The proposed interventions should recognise
women’s central role in household energy use while addressing constraints on
their decision-making authority.
(b) Institutionalise outcome-oriented monitoring and evaluation: Establish a dedicated
Mission LiFE monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework with clearly defined
measurable behavioural indicators across sectors. This framework should track
adoption, persistence, spillovers, and distributional impacts, and be implemented
in partnership with research institutions using experimental and quasi-
experimental methods. Behavioural indicators should complement conventional
energy, emissions, and environmental metrics to capture full programme impact.
(c) Promote baseline data collection, appropriate control or comparison groups, and
longitudinal tracking as minimum requirements for behavioural interventions.
Develop standardised yet flexible evaluation protocols that can be adapted
to diverse regional and sectoral contexts. Establish a national repository of
behavioural intervention evaluations to document both successes and failures
and enable systematic evidence synthesis.
(d) Leverage social norms, leadership, and collective influence: Systematically engage
trusted community leaders, influencers, and early adopters as advocates for
sustainable behaviours. Experience from Swachh Bharat Abhiyan demonstrates
how public commitments, visibility, and role modelling can shift social norms and
accelerate behaviour change at scale.
(e) Facilitate peer learning networks such as farmer-to-farmer extension programmes,
community energy champions, and neighbourhood sustainability groups. These
networks reduce social risk, provide practical knowledge, and create social
support systems that sustain behavioural change over time.
Strengthen inter-ministerial and centre–state coordination: Create an inter-ministerial
coordination mechanism to review progress and ensure policy coherence. The
demand, supply, and cross-cutting behavioural interventions articulated above
exemplify how behavioural insights serve as vital complements to technological and
infrastructure measures in India’s pathway towards sustainable energy. Pivotal to their
success is an astute understanding of diverse local contexts, equity considerations,
and a clear distinction between voluntary nudges, which preserve individual choice,
and structural mandates, which may restrict it.
Strengthening the implementation of Mission LiFE, systematically addressing
societal resistance, mitigating rebound effects associated with efficiency gains, and
establishing robust frameworks for monitoring and evaluation will be essential in
scaling effective behavioural strategies. Such foundational efforts will enable India to
achieve a resilient, inclusive energy transition that aligns with development aspirations
and climate commitments alike. 51
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
1
ANNEXURES 52Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Land-use factor (Acres per MW)
2030 20502070
Coal Power Plant0.800.800.80
Gas Power Plant0.120.120.12
Nuclear Power Plant0.600.600.60
Large Hydro Power Plant4.994.994.99
Solar PV Plant2.971.981.98
On-shore wind Power Plant3.463.463.46
Biomass Power Plant5.985.985.98
Annexure A:
Land Use Factor 53Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Water-Use Factor
Coal Power Plant (MCM/Mtoe)40.64685
Gas Power Plant (MCM/Mtoe)14.3049
Nuclear Power Plant (MCM/Mtoe)44.4266
Green Hydrogen Plant (litre/kgH2 or MCM/Mt)25
Annexure B:
Water Use Factor 54Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
NIC
code
ASUSE
Code
Formal
workers
Informal
workers
13 M5 Textiles17,22,67234,10,714
17 M9 Paper and Pulp3,50,482 2,77,547
23 M15 Non-metallic minerals (including Cement)10,49,39926,08,269
24 M16 Basic metals (including Steel, Aluminium)14,11,5772,73,300
19 M11 Petroleum Products1,68,852 50,701
20 M12 Chemical products (including fertilizers)10,58,217 1,75,616
29 M21 Manufacturing of Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers12,64,272 63,237
45
T1
Wholesale and retail trade of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
7,10,533
T2
Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
23,48,172
Total70,25,47199,18,089
Annexure C:
Employment in Fossil-
Fuel Linked Manufacturing
Industries 55
Annexure C:Employment in Fossil-Fuel Linked Manufacturing Industries Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
REFERENCES 56Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
References
1. Adil, L., Eckstein, D., Künzel, V., & Schäfer, L. (2025). Climate Risk Index 2026: Who
suffers most from extreme weather events? Germanwatch. https://www.germanwatch.
org/en/93310
2. Annual survey of industries 2022-2023: Volume I. (2024). Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation, National Statistics Office. https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/
default/files/publication_reports/ASI/ASI%202022-23%20Volume%20I-compressed.
pdf
3. Annual survey of unincorporated sector enterprises (ASUSE) 2022-23 (October 2022–
September 2023). (2024). National Sample Survey Office, Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation, Government of India. https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/
default/files/publication_reports/ASUSE_2022_23_Report_FinalN.pdf
4. Asian Development Bank. (2024). Profitable ecosystem restoration: A pilot in the
Kubuqi Desert. https://rksi.adb.org/publications/profitable-ecosystem-restoration-a-
pilot-in-the-kubuqi-desert/
5. Assam State Disaster Management Authority. Assam Flood Report 2022. Guwahati:
ASDMA; 2022
6. Azhar, G. S., Mavalankar, D., Nori-Sarma, A., Rajiva, A., Dutta, P., Jaiswal, A., Sheffield,
P., Knowlton, K., & Hess, J. J. (2014). Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause
Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave. PLOS ONE, 9(3), e91831.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091831
7. Balakrishnan, K., Dey, S., Gupta, T., Dhaliwal, R. S., Brauer, M., Cohen, A. J., Stanaway,
J. D., Beig, G., Joshi, T. K., Aggarwal, A. N., Sabde, Y. D., Sadhu, H. G., Frostad, J.,
Causey, K., Godwin, W., Shukla, D. K., Kumar, G. A., Varghese, C. M., Muraleedharan, P.,
… Murray, C. J. L. (2021). The impact of air pollution on deaths, disease burden, and life
expectancy across the states of India: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The
Lancet Planetary Health, 5(1), e25–e38. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9
8. Basu, R., Banerjee, T., & Roy, S. (2022). Impact of climate change on water availability,
food insecurity, and malnutrition in India: A systematic review. Food Policy, 103, https://
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266604902500009X
9. Bhushan, C. and Banerjee, S. 2021. Five R’s: A Cross-sectoral landscape of Just
Transition in India, International Forum for Environment, Sustainability and Technology
(iFOREST), New Delhi 57
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
10. Bureau of Energy Efficiency. (2024). India energy scenario: For the year 2023–24 (2nd
ed.). Ministry of Power, Government of India. https://beeindia.gov.in/sites/default/files/
BEE_India_Energy_Scenario_Report-2024_web_version-rev2.pdf
11. Bureau of Energy Efficiency. (2025, December 21). BEE introduces new category for
National Energy Conservation Awards 2025. Electrical India. https://www.electricalindia.
in/bee-introduces-new-category-for-national-energy-conservation-awards-2025/
12. CEEW and UNICEF. 2025. How Can India Make its Health Sector Climate Resilient? A
District-level Risk Assessment. New Delhi, India: Council on Energy, Environment and
Water. https://www.ceew.in/sites/default/files/ceewhow-can-india-make-its-health-
sector-climate-resilient20mar25-for-web.pdf
13. Central Ground Water Board. (2025). National compilation on Dynamic Groundwater
resources of India https://cgwb.gov.in/cgwbpnm/download/1741#page=171
14. Central Pollution Control Board. (2025). Polluted river stretches for restoration of
water quality – 2025. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Government
of India.https://nmcg.nic.in/pdf/POLLUTED%20RIVER%20STRETCHES%20FOR%20
RESTORATION%20OF%20WATER%20QUALITY.pdf
15. Central Water Commission. (2023). Flood management in India: A statistical report
2023. Government of India.https://cwc.gov.in/sites/default/files/flood-management-
india-statistical-report-2023.pdf
16. Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. (2025). Tracing the hazy air 2025. https://
energyandcleanair.org/publication/tracing-the-hazy-air-2025/
17. Concessao, L., Meenawat, H., Ginoya, N., Hazarika, M., Sahay, V., & Gupta, D. K. (2023).
A spoonful of solar to help the medicine go down: Exploring synergies between
health care and energy. WRI India. https://wri-india.org/sites/default/files/23_REP_
Spoonful%20Solar_web.pdf
18. Department of Land Resources & National Remote Sensing Centre. (2019). Wastelands
atlas of India 2019. Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India. https://dolr.
gov.in/wasteland-atlas-of-india-2019/
19. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare.
(2024). Land use statistics at a glance 2022-23. https://desagri.gov.in/wp-content/
uploads/2024/09/Final-file-of-LUS-2022-23-for-uploading.pdf
20. Eberhard, A., & Naudé, R. (2017). The South African renewable energy IPP procurement
programme. University of Cape Town Graduate School of Business. https://www.gsb.
uct.ac.za/files/EberhardNaude_REIPPPPReview_2017_1_1.pdf
21. Economic Times EnergyWorld. (2024, March 28). India’s Smart Meter Programme to
enable Rs 1.5 lakh cr investment in prepaid smart meters. https://energy.economictimes.
indiatimes.com/news/power/indias-smart-meter-programme-to-invest-rs-1-5-lakh-cr-
for-prepaid-smart-meters/108848405
22. Federal Government of Germany. (2020). Act on structural support for coal regions
(Structural Development Act – StrSG). https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/
service/archive/kohleregionen-foerderung-1665150 58
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
23. Ganesh Pandey, Sarah Lyden, Evan Franklin, Benjamin Millar, Matthew Tom Harrison,
A systematic review of agrivoltaics: productivity, profitability, and environmental co-
benefits, Sustainable Production and Consumption, Volume 56, 2025, Pages 13-36,
ISSN 2352-5509, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2025.03.006
24. Genchi G, Carocci A, Lauria G, Sinicropi MS, Catalano A. Nickel: Human Health and
Environmental Toxicology. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Jan 21;17(3):679. doi:
10.3390/ijerph17030679 PMCID: PMC7037090 PMID: 31973020
25. Gokhale, S. (2025, January 25). Demand for air-conditioners doubles in four years to 15
million units owing to climate change, comfort. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/
business/Industry/demand-for-air-conditioners-doubles-in-four-years-to-15-million-
units-owing-to-climate-change-comfort/article69246573.ece
26. Goldar, A., Jain, S., & Dasgupta, D. (2024). Estimating loss and damage from climate-
induced disasters: An Evaluation using ICRIER ‘Prakriti’ Model (Working Paper No.
422). Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER). https://
icrier.org/pdf/Working_Paper_422.pdf
27. Greenmatch. (2024, July 15). Is lithium mining bad for the environment? https://www.
greenmatch.co.uk/blog/is-lithium-mining-bad-for-the-environment
28. Gupta, Uma, “56% solar installations in water-scarce areas: Bridge To India”, PV
Magazine, 20 June 2019, https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2019/06/20/56-solar-
installations-in-water-scarce-areas-bridge-toindia/
29. Hess JJ, Lm S, Knowlton K, Saha S, Dutta P, Ganguly P, Tiwari A, Jaiswal A, Sheffield
P, Sarkar J, Bhan SC, Begda A, Shah T, Solanki B, Mavalankar D. Building Resilience
to Climate Change: Pilot Evaluation of the Impact of India’s First Heat Action
Plan on All-Cause Mortality. J Environ Public Health. 2018 Nov 1;2018:7973519. doi:
10.1155/2018/7973519 PMID: 30515228; PMCID: PMC6236972
30. Huawei Digital Power. (2023). Solar Panels Revitalize the Flora and Life in the Kubuqi
Desert. Huawei Case Studies. https://digitalpower.huawei.com/en/cases/fusionsolar/
solar-panels-in-the-kubuqi-desert
31. IDMC, Countdown to 2030: Achieving global targets on disaster displacement, June
2025. https://doi.org/10.55363/IDMC. BYHP3738
32. India’s power sector - capacity & generation mix. (2024). ICED, NITI Aayog. https://
iced.niti.gov.in/energy/electricity/generation
33. Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. (2025, April). POWERup 1Q
2025: Installed capacity, generation and investment. https://ieefa.org/sites/default/
files/2025-04/POWERup%201Q%202025.pdf
34. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2022 – Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press;
2023.
35. International Energy Agency. (2021). India energy outlook 2021. IEA. https://www.iea.
org/reports/india-energy-outlook-2021 59
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
36. International Energy Agency. (2024). World energy employment 2024. https://
iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a0432c97-14af-4fc7-b3bf-c409fb7e4ab8/
WorldEnergyEmployment.pdf
37. IRENA and Bluerisk (2023), Water for hydrogen production, International Renewable
Energy Agency, Bluerisk, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
38. K. N. Shivaprakash. (2022, August 17). Degraded lands can aid achieve four times
India’s 2030 renewable energy targets. The Nature Conservancy India. https://www.
tncindia.in/what-we-do/our-insights/stories-in-india/renewableenergy/
39. Knowlton, K., Kulkarni, S. P., Azhar, G. S., Mavalankar, D., Jaiswal, A., Connolly, M., Nori-
Sarma, A., Rajiva, A., Dutta, P., Deol, B., Sanchez, L., Khosla, R., Webster, P. J., Toma, V.
E., Sheffield, P., Hess, J. J., & The Ahmedabad Heat and Climate Study Group. (2014).
Development and Implementation of South Asia’s First Heat-Health Action Plan in
Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India). International Journal of Environmental Research and
Public Health, 11(4), 3473-3492. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110403473
40. Lancet Countdown. (2024). 2024 climate and health policy priorities for India [Policy
priorities report]. https://lancetcountdown.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Lancet-
Countdown-2024_India Policy-Priorities.pdf
41. Madhusudan, M. D., & Vanak, A. T. (2023). Mapping the distribution and extent of
India’s semi-arid open natural ecosystems. Journal of Biogeography, 50(8), 1377–1389.
https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14471
42. Malaviya, Sumedha, Krishnan, Cibi, Santhosh Sumathy, Kajol, and Shreya, Deepak
Nath. 2019. Assessing clean energy opportunities through demand aggregation in
Bengaluru’s apartment buildings. Working Paper, Washington DC: World Resources
Institute. https://www.wri.org/research/assessing-clean-energy-opportunities-through-
demand-aggregation-bengalurus-apartment.
43. Mazumdar R, and Malik H. Reassessment of Solar Potential in India: A Macro-level
Study. New Delhi: The Energy and Resources Institute
44. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change. (2023). India’s national action plan
(NAP) to combat desertification and land degradation through forestry interventions.
https://moef.gov.in/uploads/2023/07/NAP%20final-2023.pdf
45. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change. (2025, February). Supporting
institutional knowledge development and capacity building for planning of innovative
and sustainable projects and programs - Mainstreaming Mission LiFE: Part 1. Government
of India.
46. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC). India: Third National
Communication and Initial Adaptation Communication to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. New Delhi: Government of India; 2023.
47. Ministry of New & Renewable Energy. (2025). Renewable energy statistics 2024-25. Gov-
ernment of India. https://cdnbbsr.s3waas.gov.in/s3716e1b8c6cd17b771da77391355749f3/
uploads/2025/11/202511061627678782.pdf 60
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
48. Ministry of Panchayati Raj. (2022, December 23). Year-end review - 2022: Ministry
of Panchayati Raj [Press release]. Press Information Bureau. https://www.pib.gov.in/
PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1885885®=3&lang=2
49. Ministry of Power, Government of India. (2025, January 6). UJALA: 10 years of energy-
efficient lighting [Press release]. Press Information Bureau. https://www.pib.gov.in/
PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2090639
50. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. (2023). Migration in India 2020–
21. https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/publication_reports/Migration%20in%20
India%20RL16082023.pdf
51. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. (2024). Annual report: Periodic
Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2023-24. https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/
press_release/Press_note_AR_PLFS_2023_24_22092024.pdf
52. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. (2024). Annual report: Periodic
Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2023-24. https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/
publication_reports/AnnualReport_PLFS2023-24L2.pdf
53. Mitra, S., & Chandra, R. (2023). Deep de-carbonization and regional equity: The fiscal
consequences of India’s electricity transition (Working Paper No. 402). National Institute
of Public Finance and Policy. https://nipfp.org.in/media/documents/WP_402_2023.pdf
54. Mohanty, A., & Wadhawan, S. (2021). Mapping India’s climate vulnerability: A district level
assessment (Climate Vulnerability Index). Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
https://www.ceew.in/sites/default/files/ceew-study-on-climate-change-vulnerability-
index-and-district-level-risk-assessment.pdf
55. Mohan, V. (2025, January 1). 2024 was India’s hottest year since records began in 1901.
The Times of India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/2024-was-indias-hottest-
year-since-records-began-in-1901/articleshow/116867730.cms
56. MoHUA. (2014). Urban greening guidelines, 2014. Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs,
Town and Country Planning Organisation. https://mohua.gov.in/upload/uploadfiles/
files/G%20G%202014(2).pdf
57. MoHUA. (2021). Smart cities mission: Urban greening guidelines. Ministry of Housing
and Urban Affairs, Government of India. https://smartcities.gov.in/upload/uploadfiles/
files/Greening_Guidelines.pdf
58. Mondragon Assembly. (2024, June 4). New study shows India has 207 GW of floating
solar potential. https://www.mondragon-assembly.com/new-study-shows-india-has-
207-gw-of-floating-solar-potential/
59. MSSRF., (2024). How does climate change impact women and children across agro-
ecological zones in India: A scoping study. M S Swaminathan Research Foundation.
https://www.mssrf.org/sites/default/files/2025-05/Report-CCW-Study-v2-a_0.pdf
60. National Centre for Disease Control. (2024). Report of heat related activities conducted
in India in 2024. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. https://ncdc.mohfw.gov.in/wp-
content/uploads/2024/12/Report-of-Heat-Related-Activities-2024_NPCCHH.pdf
61. Nayak, S. and Swain, A. K. (2023). Gender and Just Transition: Envisioning a Gender-
Transformative Pathway to Energy Transition India’s Coal States. Initiative for Climate, 61
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Energy, and Environment. Centre for Policy Research. New Delhi, India. https://cprindia.
org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Gender-and-Just-Transition_Nayak-Swain.pdf
62. NITI Aayog, RMI, Transforming Trucking In India: Pathways to Zero Emission Truck
Deployment, September 2022. https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2023-02/
ZETReport09092022.pdf
63. NITI Aayog. (2019, August). Composite water management index 2019 (in association with
the Ministry of Jal Shakti and the Ministry of Rural Development) . NITI Aayog. https://
www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2023-03/CompositeWaterManagementIndex.pdf
64. NITI Aayog. (2021). Roadmap for ethanol blending in India: 2020–25. Government
of India. https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2021-06/EthanolBlendingInIndia_
compressed.pdf
65. Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India. (2011). Census of India
2011: Migration tables (D-05). https://censusindia.gov.in/nada/index.php/catalog/study/
PC11_D05-00
66. Pandey, A., Brauer, M., Cropper, M. L., et al. (2021). Health and economic impact of air
pollution in the states of India: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet
Planetary Health, 5(1), e25–e38. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9
67. Patel, N., Dorin, B., & Nagaich, R. (2022). A new paradigm for Indian agriculture:
From agroindustry to agroecology. NITI Aayog. https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/
default/files/2023-03/A-New-Paradigm-for-Indian-Agriculture-from-Agroindustry-to-
Agroecology.pdf
68. Personal2public (P2P) campaign to encourage IT corridor to switch to metro. The Hindu
(2024, May). https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/karnataka/personal2public-
p2p-campaign-to-encourage-it-corridor-to-switch-to-metro/article67075309.ece
69. PIB. (2024, March 15). Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: Progress update. Press Information
Bureau. https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2024/mar/
doc2024315325001.pdf
70. PMUY. (2024). Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: Official dashboard. https://www.pmuy.gov.in
71. Prabhu, Shravan, Keerthana Anthikat Sukesh, Srishti Mandal, Divyanshu Sharma, and
Vishwas Chitale. 2025. How Extreme Heat is Impacting India: Assessing District-level
Heat Risk. New Delhi: Council on Energy, Environment and Water. https://www.ceew.
in/sites/default/files/ceew-how-extreme-heat-is-impacting-india-final-web-file.pdf
72. Prabhu, Shravan, Keerthana Anthikat Sukesh, Srishti Mandal, Divyanshu Sharma, and
Vishwas Chitale. 2025. How Extreme Heat is Impacting India: Assessing District-level
Heat Risk. New Delhi: Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
73. Press Information Bureau, Government of India. (2024, February 5). Per capita
water availability [Press release] https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.
aspx?PRID=2002726
74. Press Information Bureau. (2025). Affordable and accessible healthcare for all.
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. https://www.pib.gov.in/
PressNoteDetails.aspx?ModuleId=3&NoteId=154668®=3&lang=2 62
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
75. Press Information Bureau. (2025, December). 2025 marks highest-ever renewable
energy expansion in India [Press release]. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.
aspx?PRID=2209478®=3&lang=1
76. Press Information Bureau. (2025, October 26). Jal Jeevan Mission: With ₹2.08 lakh
crore central outlay, delivering tap water to over 15.72 crore rural households [Press
release]. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2182568®=3&lang=2
77. Press Information Bureau. (2026). Year end review 2025: Mission Saksham Anganwadi
and Poshan 2.0. Ministry of Women and Child Development, Government of India.
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2212747
78. Renewable Watch. (2020, December 3). Waterless way: Dry cleaning solutions for solar
panels. https://renewablewatch.in/2020/12/03/waterless-way/
79. Reserve Bank of India. (2024). India KLEMS database. https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/
klems.aspx
80. Romanello, M., Walawender, M., Hsu, S.-C., Moskeland, A., Palmeiro-Silva, Y., Scamman, D.,
... & Watts, N. (2025). Health and climate change in India: 2025 Lancet Countdown data
sheet. Lancet Countdown. https://lancetcountdown.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/
India_Lancet-Countdown_2025_Data-Sheet-2.pdf
81. Roxy MK, Ghosh S, Pathak A, Athulya R, Mujumdar M, Murtugudde R, Terray P,
Rajeevan M. A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India.
Nat Commun. 2017 Oct 3;8(1):708. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9 PMID: 28974680;
PMCID: PMC5626780
82. Singh, S. (2025). The silent disaster: Why India must build stronger heatwave resilience.
The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). https://www.teriin.org/article/silent-disaster-
why-india-must-build-stronger-heatwave-resilience
83. The Nature Conservancy India. (2020). Scaling up renewable energy deployment in
India: Pathways to reduced socio-ecological risks. https://www.tncindia.in/content/
dam/tnc/nature/en/documents/india/Scaling_up_Renewable_Energy_Deployment_
in_India.pdf
84. UNICEF. (2020 March). Swachh Bharat: A journey towards sanitation for all. https://
www.unicef.org/india/media/8801/file/UNICEF.pdf
85. World Bank. (2013). Turn Down the Heat: Climate extremes, regional impacts, and
the case for resilience (Vol. II: South Asia report) https://www.worldbank.org/content/
dam/Worldbank/document/Full_Report_Vol_2_Turn_Down_The_Heat_%20Climate_
Extremes_Regional_Impacts_Case_for_Resilience_Print%20version_FINAL.pdf
86. World Bank. (2023). Arable land (hectares per person) – India. World Bank Data.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.HA.PC?locations=IN
87. World Bank. (2023). Arable land (hectares per person) – World. World Bank Data.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.HA.PC?locations=1W
88. Zhang, Y., Li, X., & Wang, J. (2024). Ecological construction status of photovoltaic
power plants in China’s deserts. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 12, Article 1406546.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1406546 VOL. 11
SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS
OF TRANSITION
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
VOL. 11
SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS
OF TRANSITION
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS
OF TRANSITION
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
VOL. 11
SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS
OF TRANSITION
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO Copyright © NITI Aayog, 2026
NITI Aayog
Government of India,
Sansad Marg, New Delhi–110001, India
Suggested Citation
NITI Aayog. (2026). Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications
of Transition (Vol. 11)
Available at: https://niti.gov.in/publications/division-reports
Disclaimer
1. This document is not a statement of policy by the National Institution for
Transforming India (hereinafter referred to as NITI Aayog). It has been prepared
by the Green Transition, Energy, Climate, and Environment Division of NITI Aayog
under various Inter-Ministerial Working Groups (IMWGs) constituted to develop Net
Zero pathways for India.
2. Unless otherwise stated, NITI Aayog, in this regard, has not made any representation
or warranty, express or implied, as to the completeness or reliability of the
information, data, findings, or methodology presented in this document. While due
care has been taken by the author(s) in the preparation of this publication, the
content is based on independently procured information and analysis available at
the time of writing and may not reflect the most current policy developments or
datasets.
3. The assertions, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report are those
of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NITI Aayog or the
Government of India, unless otherwise mentioned. As such, NITI Aayog does not
endorse or validate any of the specific views or policy suggestions made herein by
the author(s).
4. NITI Aayog shall not be liable under any circumstances, in law or equity, for any
loss, damage, liability, or expense incurred or suffered as a result of the use of or
reliance upon the contents of this document. Any reference to specific organisations,
products, services, or data sources does not constitute or imply an endorsement
by NITI Aayog. Readers are encouraged to independently verify the data and
conduct their analysis before forming conclusions or taking any policy, academic,
or commercial decisions. SCENARIOS TOWARDS
VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF
TRANSITION
(VOL. 11) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition viiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Authors and
Acknowledgement
Chairperson
Dr. V. K. Paul
Member, NITI Aayog
Leadership
Sh. Suman Bery
Vice Chairman, NITI Aayog
Sh. B. V. R. Subrahmanyam
CEO, NITI Aayog
Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj
Programme Director, Green Transition,
Energy & Climate Change Division,
NITI Aayog
Sh. Surender Mehra
Advisor, Environment and Climate Change,
NITI Aayog
Core Modelling Team
NITI Aayog
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist,
NITI Aayog
Dr. Anjali Jain
Consultant Grade-2, NITI Aayog
Sh. Nitin Bajpai
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Authors
NITI Aayog
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist,
NITI Aayog
Ms. Aastha Singh
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Knowledge Partners
Sh. Chandra Bhushan
CEO, International Forum for Environment,
Sustainability & Technology (iFOREST)
Dr. Srestha Banerjee
Director, iFOREST
Sh. Nitin Bassi
Fellow and Team Lead, Council on Energy,
Environment and Water (CEEW)
Ms. Akanksha Tyagi
Programme Lead, CEEW
Ms. Parineet Kaur Chowdhury
Research Analyst, CEEW
Ms. Ulka Kelkar
Executive Director, World Resources Institute
(WRI), India
Ms. Gauri Atre
Senior Program Associate, WRI, India
Sh. Arpan Golechha
Program Manager, WRI, India
Ms. Payden
Acting Representative to India,
World Health Organisation (WHO)
Dr. Pushpa Chaudhary Deo
Team Leader (RMNCAH), WHO
Dr. Richa Kandpal
SAMARTH National Officer, WHO viiiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Dr. Nitish Dogra
Consultant, WHO
Dr. Sandeep Thacker
Consultant, UNICEF, India
Peer Reviewers
Sh. Priyavrat Bhati
Program Lead, Environment and
Climate Change, NITI Aayog
Sh. Dilip Singh
Programme Specialist, UNDP, India
Ms. Somya Bhatt
Programme Analyst, UNDP, India
Ms. Srishti Dewan
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Working Group Members
Ms. Gitanjali Gupta
Program Director, NITI Aayog
Sh. Neelesh Kumar Shah
Joint Secretary, Ministry of Environment,
Forest & Climate Change
Sh. Nilambuj Sharan
Senior Economic Adviser, Ministry of Skill
Development and Entrepreneurship
Sh. Rohit Mathur
Joint Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum and
Natural Gas
Sh. Rajib Sen
Program Director, NITI Aayog
Dr. Sumita Ghosh
Officer on Special Duty, Health, NITI Aayog
Dr. Anuradha Guru
Economic Adviser, Department of Economic
Affairs, Ministry of Finance
Ms. Santosh Agarwal
Deputy Director General, Ministry of Coal
Ms. Anshu Singh
Deputy Director General, Ministry of Tribal
Affairs
Sh. Amit Verma
Joint Secretary, Ministry of Commerce
(Former Director, NITI Aayog)
Sh. Shard Sapra
Scientist F & Director, Ministry of
Environment, Forest & Climate Change
Dr. Shikha Anand
Director, Ministry of Labour
and Employment
Sh. Rakesh Kumar
Joint Director, Ministry of Micro, Small &
Medium Enterprises
Sh. V. Ramakrishnan
Deputy Director, Ministry of Micro, Small &
Medium Enterprises
Sh. Chandra Bhushan
Chief Executive Officer, iFOREST
Ms. Sunita Narain
Director General, Centre for Science and
Environment
Sh. Karthik Ganesan
Fellow, CEEW
Ms. Ulka Kelkar
Executive Director, WRI, India
Dr. K S Reddy
Honorary Distinguished Professor, Public
Health Foundation of India (PFHI)
Sh. Aakash Shrivastav
Additional Director, National Centre for
Disease Control
Ms. Nataliya Kulichenko
Lead Energy Specialist, World Bank
Dr. Soumya Swaminathan
Chairperson, M.S. Swaminathan Research
Foundation ixScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Dr. Anandajit Goswami
Research Lead, Senior Research Fellow,
Ashoka Centre For People Centric Energy
Transition (ACPET)
Dr. Anshika Singh
Former Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Editors
Ms. Aastha Manocha
Editor and Communication Consultant
(Independent)
Ms. Rishu Nigam
Communication Specialist (Independent) xiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Contents
List of Figures xiii
List of Tables xiii
List of Abbreviations xv
Executive Summary xvii
1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Context 2
1.2 Institutional Mechanism to examine the issue: Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Social
Implications of Transition 4
2. Land and Water: The Resource Context...................................................................................7
2.1 Land & Water Use in different scenarios 9
2.2 Spatial aspects of transition 12
2.3 Challenges 13
2.4 Suggestions 14
3. Livelihood, employment and migration aspect....................................................................17
3.1 State-Level Economic Structures and Their Implications for Employment and Migration 19
3.2 Fossil-fuel Dependence and Vulnerability 21
3.3 Gender Dimension 26
3.4 Projections: The Shape of Workforce Transition 26
3.5 Challenges and Suggestions 27
4. Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition..............................................31
4.1 Vulnerability and Impacts of Climate Change and Energy Transition on Health 33
4.2 Current Policy Landscape 36
4.3 Challenges and Suggestions 38
5. Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition............................................................41
5.1 Government Initiatives 43
5.2 Challenges and Suggestions 45 xii
Contents Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
6. Annexures.....................................................................................................................................51
Annexure A: Land Use Factor 52
Annexure B: Water Use Factor 53
Annexure C: Employment in Fossil-Fuel Linked Manufacturing Industries 54
7. References....................................................................................................................................55 xiiiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
List of Figures
List of Tables
Figure 2.1Land requirement under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero
Scenario (NZS)
10
Figure 2.2Water requirement under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero
Scenario (NZS)
11
Figure 2.3Solar capacity in various states in 2024 - 202513
Figure 3.1Districts dependent on fossil-fuel economy22
Table 3.1 Categorisation of states based on economic and employment structures 21
Table 3.2 Workforce dependent on coal mining 23
Table 3.3 Ratio of direct and induced jobs in coal mining areas 24
Table 3.4 State-wise workforce dependent on coal-based thermal power plant generation 24
Table 4.1 Heat Island impact in major cities 34 xvScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
ABDM Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission
APV Agri-Photo Voltaic
ASI Annual Survey of Industries
ASUSE Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises
AVISTEP Avian Sensitivity Tool for Energy Planning
BEE Bureau of Energy Efficiency
CAP Common Alerting Protocol
CEA Central Electricity Authority
CIL Coal India Limited
CO
2
Carbon Dioxide
COPD Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
CPCB Central Pollution Control Board
CPS Current Policy Scenario
CREA Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
CSR Corporate Social Responsibility
DRE Decentralised Renewable Energy
ESIC Employee State Insurance Corporation
FDI Foreign Direct Investment
FPO Farmer Producer Organisations
GVA Gross Value Added
HAP Heat Action Plan
IBAT Integrated Biodiversity Assessment Tool
ICAP India Cooling Action Plan
ICED India Climate & Energy Dashboard
IDSP Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme
IEA International Energy Agency
IEEFA Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC-AR5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report
IPHS Indian Public Health Standards
IREDA Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency
LCOE Levelised Cost of Energy
LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas
List of Abbreviations xvi
List of Abbreviations Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
M&E Monitoring and Evaluation
Mha Million hectares
Mission LiFEMission Lifestyle for Environment
MNRE Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
MoEFCC Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change
MoHUA Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs
MoSPI Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
NABARD National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development
NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change
NCAP National Clean Air Programme
NDMA National Disaster Management Authority
NHM National Health Mission
NPCCHH National Programme on Climate Change and Human Health
NSVA Net State Value Added
NZS Net Zero Scenario
PCF Product Carbon Footprint
PIB Press Information Bureau
PLFS Periodic Labour Force Survey
PM JANMAN Pradhan Mantri Janjati Adivasi Nyaya Maha Abhiyan
PM-ABHIM Pradhan Mantri Ayushman Bharat Health Infrastructure Mission
PM-JAY Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana
PMKSY Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana
PMMVY Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana
PMUY Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana
PPA Power Purchase Agreements
RE Renewable Energy
REIPPPP Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme
RESCO Renewable Energy Service Companies
SAF Sustainable Aviation Fuel
SAPCC State Action Plan on Climate Change
SBTi Science Based Target initiative
SCGJ Skill Council for Green Jobs
SHG Self Help Group
TB Tuberculosis
ToR Terms of Reference
TPP Thermal Power Plants
UJALA Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All
VGF Viability Gap Funding
WHO World Health Organisation xviiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Executive Summary
India is currently at a critical juncture in its developmental trajectory, navigating the dual
ambitions of achieving the status of ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047 and reaching Net Zero by 2070.
This transition occurs against the backdrop of intensifying climate risks, with India ranking
among the countries most affected by extreme weather events. These climate impacts
disproportionately burden vulnerable populations, making a socially informed approach not
merely an environmental goal but a foundational requirement for sustainable and resilient
development. A carefully sequenced, policy-driven transition is therefore required to address
social considerations emerging from both climate change and the expansion of low carbon
infrastructure. This report frames low-carbon development as a transformative opportunity
for socio-economic realignment, integrating technological innovation with equitable growth
outcomes.
Key Insights:
Power sector and green hydrogen land and water requirements are substantial under both
scenarios: Under the Current Policy Scenario, which assumes continuation of policies and trends
as of 2023, land requirements grow 6 times over 2030 reaching 4.2 million hectares by 2070
(equivalent to 7.5% of India’s ~56 Mha wasteland capacity). While in a Net Zero Scenario, which
assumes a strong policy push for renewables, the land requirements grow 7 times reaching
5.92 million hectares (equivalent to 11% of India’s wasteland capacity). Under both scenarios,
the water consumption in proportion grows only by 1.7 times in 2050 over 2030 levels due to
higher renewables, which has lower water requirements. Further, water requirement declines by
2070, largely owing to technological improvements and efficiency gains post 2050.
As proportion of wasteland, renewable deployment on 7.5%-11% of wasteland seems modest, it
masks community dependence and livelihood realities: Lands officially classified as wastelands
are often used for grazing, fuelwood collection, and rural livelihoods, supporting pastoralism
and cultural practices. Diversion of wastelands for renewable projects needs to be carefully
managed.
Energy transition creates a geographic mismatch between fossil-fuel dependent regions and
renewable deployment zones: States like Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha are heavily
dependent on mining and thermal power generation. Renewable energy deployment, however,
is concentrated in other states with 75% of installed solar and wind capacity in Rajasthan,
Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. This geographic mismatch means fossil-
fuel sustained communities face economic dislocation while renewable rich states experience
intensifying competition for land and water resources among agriculture, energy infrastructure, xviii
Executive Summary Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
and local livelihoods. Further, renewable expansion are largely located in arid and semi-arid
areas that are water stressed.
Energy transition also has implications on employment: Over 150 districts across India are
significantly dependent on fossil-fuel supply chains, directly or indirectly sustaining livelihoods
for nearly one-third of India’s population. It is observed that informal workers are at least twice
as many as workers directly employed in coal mining, coal thermal power plants, and fossil-
fuel-linked manufacturing and downstream industries.
Energy transition increases employment in the Net Zero Scenario compared to the Current
Policy Scenario while reshaping job composition: Under the Current Policy Scenario, energy
sector employment remains stable at around 6 million by 2050, with coal, oil, gas, and
electricity accounting for the bulk of employment. Under the Net Zero Scenario, energy sector
employment increases to about 7 million by 2050, around 1 million higher than under Current
Policy Scenario, reflecting a change in the composition of energy jobs toward clean technology
manufacturing and renewable energy infrastructure for both skilled and unskilled workers.
Beyond the energy sector, the Net Zero Scenario generates large economy-wide employment
gains, led by construction with approximately 4.6 million additional jobs in 2050. Trade also
adds 5.2 million jobs over the period 2030–2070 in the Net Zero Scenario compared to the
Current Policy Scenario.
Livelihood diversification strategies are essential in climate vulnerable and fossil-fuel
dependent regions: Migration functions as a livelihood diversification strategy, particularly
in agriculture dominant states. The share of male outmigrants is more compared to women.
Migrants frequently settle in informal urban settlements and enter informal labour markets
in construction, transport, and informal services. This can transform migration from a coping
mechanism into a source of new vulnerabilities as both climate impacts and industrial
restructuring intensify displacement pressures.
Climate change intensifies health burdens disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations:
Healthcare systems in over 40% of districts in India face high climate risk, with escalating direct
and indirect impacts through rising temperatures, frequent heat waves, increased transmission of
vector-borne diseases and deteriorating air quality. These risks amplify cardiovascular, respiratory,
and heat-related illnesses and impacts fall disproportionately on vulnerable groups including
women, children, and the elderly and urban informal workers with low-adaptive capacity.
Energy transition presents health opportunities: Transitioning from fossil-fuel based system
to low-carbon energy offers substantial health benefits including reduced respiratory diseases,
cardiovascular diseases, premature deaths, heat-related illnesses, and improved air quality.
India has built a robust policy ecosystem for behavioural change, anchored by Mission Lifestyle
for Environment: India has successfully deployed large-scale behavioural interventions across
multiple sectors, establishing proven models through flagship programmes like Swachh Bharat
Abhiyan, UJALA (Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All), Jal Jeevan Mission, and the Bureau of
Energy Efficiency’s star labelling programme. These initiatives demonstrate how social proofing,
choice architecture, defaults, and peer networks can drive voluntary adoption of sustainable
practices at national scale. Mission LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment), launched in 2022, provides
a comprehensive national architecture that unifies these sectoral efforts into a coordinated
system, with the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change as the anchor player. xix
Executive Summary Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Behavioural changes and equity considerations are key to shaping the transition landscape:
Behavioural barriers rooted in social norms, status perceptions, and structural constraints persist
across sectors. For example, personal vehicle ownership remains a status symbol, landlords lack
incentives to invest in building efficiency where tenants reap the savings, industrial procurement
may prioritise cost over carbon footprint, and farmers may show aversion toward unfamiliar
climate-smart practices.
The effectiveness of behavioural interventions varies significantly across India’s diverse
socioeconomic contexts, with groups facing constrained decision making authority such as
women in many households and lower income families encountering material and social barriers
that limit their ability to adopt sustainable behaviours.
Key Policy Suggestions
1. Promote decentralised renewable energy solutions: Prioritise decentralised solutions such
as rooftop solar, mini-grids, and dual-use systems like agri-PhotoVoltaics that combine
farming with solar panels. These approaches reduce large-scale land acquisition requirement
and support local communities. These land-neutral solutions may be promoted through
targeted Viability Gap Funding (VGF) or concessional debt.
Further, the implementation of decentralised models can be scaled through adoption of
business models such as Renewable Energy Service Companies (RESCOs). To be effective,
RESCOs must operate within clear contractual frameworks supported by robust risk-
mitigation instruments and revenue-sharing mechanisms. Additionally, to ensure tangible
benefits for local communities, RESCO operators can adopt local employment quotas
alongside targeted reskilling programs for skilled roles.
2. Recognise energy-use explicitly in national and state level water allocation policies:
Safeguards include promoting desalination in coastal regions, wastewater circularity in
groundwater-stressed areas, and prioritizing water-lean energy technologies through
efficiency-based evaluation criteria.
3. Improve planning and resource management: Use mapping tools to avoid high conflict
zones and ecologically sensitive areas. Explicitly include energy production in water
allocation policies, encouraging water-efficient technologies, recycled water use, and
desalination technologies especially in coastal areas.
4. Create a comprehensive package for affected workers and regions:
(a) Creation of national policy framework followed by district level transition plans for
worker retraining, relocation support, and economic diversification in affected districts.
Further, in affected districts, leverage funds from District Mineral Foundations, Skill
Council for Green Jobs and the Skill India Mission.
(b) Accelerate development of sector specific transition skill roadmaps to identify at-risk
occupations in fossil-fuel linked sectors.
(c) Upgrade the e-Shram platform to track workers in fossil-fuel industries. Ensure
access to social protection entitlements for all the impacted workers (informal and
contractual). xxScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
(d) In fossil-fuel dependent regions and areas increasingly impacted by climate change,
establish local facilitation units to help workers access benefits and navigate reskilling
programs while accelerating implementation of new Labour Codes.
5. Establish consistent risk assessment nationwide: Adopt and integrate standardized
vulnerability assessment framework into health surveillance systems to track of climate-
sensitive diseases across states.
6. Build climate-ready health infrastructure and workforce with adequate financing:
(a) Update Indian Public Health Standards (IPHS) to include climate-proofing requirements
such as backup power, water security, and climate-resilient designs.
(b) Integrate climate-health and emergency preparedness modules into medical training
with mandatory refresher courses and preparedness drills.
(c) Use earmarked National Health Mission (NHM) funding to attract larger investments
from multilateral and philanthropic sources.
7. Deploy targeted behavioural interventions across sectors:
(a) Leverage visible leadership and social proof through campaigns showcasing public
officials and community leaders using sustainable practices.
(b) Integrate behavioural nudges into digital platforms with sustainable defaults in
mobility apps and smart building systems.
(c) Deploy standardised Product Carbon Footprint labelling for industrial procurement
(d) Build comparative energy reports with neighbourhood baselines for households to
nudge energy-use behaviour.
(e) Promote farmer-led demonstration plots with bundled climate-smart packages to
reduce decision fatigue and risk aversion.
8. Strengthen Mission Lifestyle for Environment (LiFE) implementation through integration
and evidence-based monitoring:
(a) Accelerate the mainstreaming of Mission LiFE principles across existing government
schemes in housing, energy, transport, agriculture, and livelihoods.
(b) Establish outcome-oriented monitoring and evaluation frameworks with behavioural
indicators, baseline data collection, and longitudinal tracking.
(c) Strengthen inter-ministerial and center-state coordination while ensuring interventions
are responsive to diverse socioeconomic contexts. INTRODUCTION
1 2Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Introduction
1.1 CONTEXT
India stands at a defining juncture in its development trajectory. It is aiming to become
Viksit Bharat by 2047, a developed country, with a high per capita income, while doing so
in a sustainable manner. Given the Net Zero by 2070 goal laid down by the Hon’ble Prime
Minister, there are limitations on using purely fossil-fuel led growth path.
The challenge is particularly consequential as India simultaneously pursues the two national
priorities: achieving developed-nation status by 2047 and reaching Net Zero emissions by
2070, as this has never been done or attempted before. Navigating this dual ambition
demands a carefully sequenced, policy-driven transition that safeguards livelihoods,
promotes inclusive growth, and ensures that the costs and benefits of the transition are
equitably distributed. A socially informed approach to the energy transition is therefore
not only an environmental imperative, but a foundational requirement for sustainable and
resilient development.
At the core of this transition lie significant and unevenly distributed social pressures
emerging from both the expansion of low-carbon infrastructure and long-term decline in the
role of fossil-fuel-based systems. The fossil-fuel phase down affects not only formal mining
employment but also extensive informal livelihoods across supply chains, transportation,
and services concentrated in fossil-fuel dependent regions. These cascading socioeconomic
affects risk undermining community stability through the erosion of municipal revenues,
public services, and local economic ecosystems. At the same time, renewable energy
deployment is spatially concentrated in arid and semi-arid states, geographically distant
from existing fossil-fuel led economies (Mitra & Chandra, 2023). This spatial mismatch
creates new regional inequities, as job creation, infrastructure investment, and economic
opportunity do not naturally align with areas facing fossil-fuel decline in the long run.
The expansion of renewable energy infrastructure introduces additional social and ecological
stresses. Large-scale renewable projects demand significant land and water resources, often
intersecting with multifunctional landscapes that support pastoral grazing, rural livelihoods,
biodiversity, and cultural practices (The Nature Conservancy India, 2020). Water requirements
for construction and operation of low-carbon infrastructure further strain scarce resources
in host regions, exacerbating vulnerabilities among local and marginalised communities
(International Energy Agency [IEA], 2021). These pressures underscore that clean energy
deployment, while environmentally necessary, is not socially neutral and requires deliberate
policy safeguards.
1 3
Introduction Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
These transition-linked challenges are further compounded by India’s deep and escalating
climate vulnerabilities, which amplify social risks across both fossil-fuel-dependent and
renewable-intensive regions. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate (IPCC) stresses the need to
enhance the understanding of climate risks that arise from the interaction of environmental
hazards, socio-economic inequality, demographic pressures, and uneven adaptive capacity,
especially at sub-national levels (IPCC, 2022). According to the Global Climate Risk Index
2026, India ranks ninth globally among countries most affected by extreme weather events
over the period 1995–2024, reflecting high exposure and vulnerability to climate risks. It
is exposed to flooding, tropical cyclones, and drought. According to the Central Water
Commission’s (2023) statistical report, the average annual damages to crops, houses, and
public utilities from 1953 to 2021, as reported by states and Union Territories, totalled
₹6,972 crore. The highest recorded annual damage was ₹58,433 crore in 2021. Heatwaves
have caused over 24,000 deaths between 1992 and 2015, with urban heat island effects
intensifying risks in rapidly growing cities (Singh, 2025). In addition, a state-level assessment
under the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 found that air pollution contributed to 1.67
million deaths in India, accounting for nearly 18% of all deaths (Balakrishnan et al., 2021).
The economic losses from premature mortality and morbidity were equivalent to 1.36% of
national GDP in 2019 (Balakrishnan et al., 2021). These impacts disproportionately burden
the already vulnerable communities: rural pastoralists, informal workers, women, children,
the elderly, and indigenous communities (IPCC,2022).
The climate risk in India is therefore compounded by high levels of socioeconomic risk,
leading to a high instance of social vulnerability. Studies show that more than 80% of India’s
population lives in districts that are vulnerable to climate disasters, with most of them
having low adaptive capacities (Mohanty & Wadhawan, 2021). In this context, adaptation
and social protection measures are indispensable, not only to buffer vulnerable populations
from climate shocks, but also to ensure that the transition itself does not deepen existing
inequalities. Addressing these intertwined challenges requires governance frameworks
that translate technological and economic progress into tangible social security and local
well-being. Evidence from other parts of the world (See Box-1) highlights the centrality
of procedural equity, transparent consent processes, benefit-sharing mechanisms, and
livelihood restoration, in reducing conflict and sustaining public support for resource-
intensive transitions. 4
Introduction Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Box-1: International practices for managing
social aspects of transition
Germany’s Structural Development Act implemented in 2020, allocated up to 40 billion
euros through 2038 to help coal regions through the phase-out (Federal Government
of Germany, 2020). The plan supports investments in clean energy, infrastructure,
science and innovation and labour market policies in the hopes of diversifying and
boosting the regional economies.
South Africa’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme
(REIPPPP), launched in 2011, attempted at equitable energy transitions via competitive
bidding with socioeconomic safeguards. It imposed minimum local content thresholds
of 40% for goods and services in initial rounds from 2011 to 2013, with compliance
increasing steadily in subsequent rounds (Eberhard & Naudé, 2017). Concurrently, the
programme required at least 2.5% equity shares for communities within 50 km of sites,
however, bidders frequently offered higher shares of 8% to 12.5% through trusts. These
measures comparatively reduced resource conflicts and secured 6,328 MW across 92
projects by 2015, driving tariff reductions and investment (Eberhard & Naudé, 2017).
China’s agrivoltaics systems in the Kubuqi Desert integrate solar generation with
ecological restoration and desert-adapted agriculture, enhancing soil and water
outcomes while diversifying rural incomes (Asian Development Bank, 2024; Wang et
al., 2024). Research documents that photovoltaic installations in the Kubuqi reduced
ground wind speeds by up to 50%; when paired with sand-fixation grids, these systems
achieved desert stabilization in only four years, significantly accelerating the traditional
ten-year restoration timeline (Huawei Digital Power, 2023).
1.2 INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISM TO EXAMINE THE ISSUE: INTER-
MINISTERIAL WORKING GROUP ON SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF
TRANSITION
The objective of the Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Social Implications was to examine
the social aspects of transition such as land and water, employment, migration, health, and
individual and community behaviour. The terms of Reference (ToR) of the Working Group
are as follows:
(a) Examine the issues of transition away from fossil-fuel assets on employment and
indigenous communities.
(b) Examine the impact of transition on need for reskilling workforce for high value-
added jobs especially among the most vulnerable sectors such as coal mining,
fossil-fuel value chain etc.
(c) Examine the impact of various scenarios on land and water requirement.
(d) Examine the issue of migration for livelihood generation. 5
Introduction Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
(e) Examine the implication of climate change on different sections of society for
example, increase in vector borne diseases, coastal flooding due to sea level rise
etc.
(f) Examine the role of behavioural nudges in pushing for efficient resource use.
Chairperson of the working group: Dr. V.K. Paul, Member (NITI Aayog).
Accordingly, this report frames low-carbon development as an opportunity for transformative
socio-economic realignment, integrating technological innovation with inclusive growth.
Section 2 quantifies land and water requirements across alternative transition pathways to
identify critical pressure points. Section 3 examines the future of work, analysing employment
shifts, skill transitions, and migration dynamics. Section 4 explores health equity and the co-
benefits of mitigation and adaptation. Section 5 assesses the behavioural changes required
to sustain the transition and concludes by outlining governance pathways that align India’s
climate ambitions with the broader goal of a prosperous, just, inclusive, and resilient Viksit
Bharat. LAND AND WATER:
THE RESOURCE
CONTEXT
2 8Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
2
Land and Water:
The Resource Context
Land and water are fundamental to India’s development, supporting food security, livelihoods,
urbanization, industrial growth, and the transition to clean energy. These resources are
increasingly under pressure from competing demands: expanding agriculture to meet the
needs of a growing population, rapid urbanisation and infrastructure needs, intensifying
industrialisation, and the impacts of climate change degrading soil and disrupting hydrological
cycles. With just 0.11 hectares of arable land per person, India falls well below the global
average of 0.172 hectares, reflecting the pressures of limited land resources (World Bank,
2023). Adding to this is the growing reality of land degradation arising from the combination
of climatic, developmental, social and anthropogenic pressures. ISRO’s Desertification and
Land Degradation Atlas of India (2018), reports that, as of 2018-19, approximately 30% of
India’s total geographic area was degraded. Further, from 2011–13 to 2018–19, the affected
area saw a modest cumulative increase of 1.45 million hectares (0.44% of total geographical
area), reflecting ongoing monitoring and targeted interventions amid broader restoration
efforts (Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC), 2023).
On the water availability side, assessments indicate that average annual per capita availability
is projected to drop from 1,486 cubic meters in 2021 to 1,367 cubic meters by 2031, placing
India in the “water-stressed” category, which is defined as having less than 1,700 cubic
meters available per person (Ministry of Jal Shakti, 2024). While these figures remain above
the 1,000 cubic meter threshold that marks a condition of “water scarcity,” the consistent
downward trend highlights increasing pressure on resources. NITI Aayog’s Composite Water
Management Index 2.0 (2019) highlights that 820 million people across 12 river basins face
per capita water availability below the scarcity threshold. Further, groundwater supports
80% of domestic water needs and 63% of irrigation amid intensifying economic and urban
growth demands.
Climate change further shapes these dynamics through erratic monsoons, increased rainfall
variability, and rising temperatures. These factors impact crop yields, hinder groundwater
recharge, and alter surface water flows. Such shifts particularly impact rainfed agriculture,
which accounts for over 60% of India’s cultivated land and supports a significant portion
of the rural population (World Bank, 2013). Water pollution is a concern as well. However,
over the past years there has been marked improvement. Only 46% of rivers monitored (279
out of 603) were identified as polluted. In comparison 70% of rivers(275 out of 390) were
identified as polluted in 2015 (Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), 2025).
Therefore, India’s pursuit of being a developed economy by 2047 (Viksit Bharat) coupled
with its commitment to achieve the Net Zero by 2070 is unfolding amid a land–water
landscape already under strain. The large scale renewable energy deployment central to 9
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
India’s Net Zero by 2070 carries a significant land footprint. Utility-scale solar installations
typically demand 1.2 – 2 hectares per MW of occupied land, as the panels and infrastructure
cover most of the site. (Mazumdar and Malik, 2025). In contrast, wind power parks utilie a
much larger dispersed land area due to turbine spacing requirements, access infrastructure,
and environmental buffers. Meanwhile, despite renewable energy sources’ high water use
during construction, they significantly reduce operational water use. However, the land they
require is a challenge in a country with limited space.
Other components of the energy transition shift pressure onto water resources. Nuclear
power, envisioned as a stable clean baseload, requires uninterrupted cooling water for safety
and operation. Similarly, green hydrogen produced via electrolysis depends on substantial
amounts of high-purity freshwater, raising competition risks in basins already stretched
thin. Even conventional thermal power plants contribute to resource stress, needing land
for infrastructure, ash disposal, and mining, being significant water users, mainly for the
cooling purposes.
India’s biofuel expansion, including ethanol blending, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel
(SAF), adds another layer to this complexity. The primary feedstock of sugarcane, rice, and
maize are inherently water-intensive. NITI Aayog (2021) estimates that sugarcane-based
ethanol consumes around 2,860 litres of water per litre of ethanol produced while maize
ethanol may need over 4,600 litres per litre, and rice ethanol over 10,700 litres of water
per litre. Scaling ethanol blending without efficiency improvements or feedstock shifts could
impact water for agriculture and households.
These land and water pressures, intensified by climate change and energy transition demands,
disproportionately burden vulnerable populations reliant on these resources. Smallholder
farmers risk crop failure from erratic monsoons and land diversion; women, elderly, and
children in low-income households face heightened vulnerability due to direct economic
dependence on these resources. The following sections assess land and water use across
the Current Policy Scenario and the Net Zero Scenario pathways, examine spatial impacts
on these groups, analyse governance challenges, and propose inclusive strategies for India’s
low-carbon transition.
2.1 LAND & WATER USE IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
To assess how India’s energy transition will shape future land and water needs, this report
evaluates two scenarios, aligned with national development and climate goals (For details,
refer to Volume IIE Power sector report):
• Current Policy Scenario (CPS): The scenario represents a level of effort that is realistically
achievable based on historical trends and recent progress. It assumes that current
policies (as of 2022) and past trends will continue, leading to a gradual adoption of
low-carbon technologies in each sector.
• Net Zero Scenario (NZS): The scenario reflects an ambitious pathway aligned with India’s
commitment to achieve the Net Zero GHG emissions by 2070. It incorporates both existing
and additional policy measures to accelerate technology deployment and significant
behavioural and structural shifts across sectors. Key strategies include rapid electrification
of end-use sectors, substantial gains in energy efficiency, adoption of circular economy
practices, and high penetration of renewable and clean energy technologies. 10
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
This analysis is restricted to the power sector and green hydrogen production. Other land-
and water-intensive components of the transition such as biofuels, industry, and non-power
infrastructure are not modelled here. Results are based on average technology intensities
(land required per MW, water required per MWh or per kilogram of hydrogen) applied to
projected capacity mixes (Detailed land/water use factors are provided in Annexures A & B).
They provide a directional assessment of future pressures but do not capture site-specific
variations such as regional water stress, land quality, or competing livelihood uses. Capacity
mixes for each scenario are drawn from energy system modelling, and aggregate land and
water requirements are derived accordingly.
India’s Net Zero pathways entail substantial land and water requirements for clean energy
deployment in both scenarios. Figure 2.1 presents land requirements (in million hectares)
for 2030, 2050, and 2070 under both the scenarios.
0.68
2.35
4.18
0.82
3.26
5.92
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
203020502070
Land Requirement (Mha)
CPS NZS
Million Hectares
Figure 2.1: Land requirement under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Land demand increases steadily under both scenarios as renewable capacity expands. Under
the Current Policy Scenario, land requirements rise from 0.68 million hectares (Mha) in 2030
to 2.35 Mha in 2050, and 4.2 Mha by 2070. Under the Net Zero Scenario, land requirements
are substantially higher, increasing from 0.82 Mha in 2030 to 3.26 Mha in 2050, and reaching
5.92 Mha by 2070. This reflects the extensive deployment of solar, wind, and nuclear energy
required under a rapid Net Zero pathway. Future adoption of rooftop solar, floating solar,
and agro-photovoltaic systems could, however, diversify deployment models and partially
reduce land requirements.
At the national level, the aggregate land requirement for clean energy deployment appears
manageable relative to India’s total geographic area of approximately 300 million hectares.
Recent land-use statistics indicate that net sown area constitutes 46.20% of the total area,
while current and other fallow lands account for 8.35%. Pastures, tree crops, and culturable
wastelands collectively represent 6.15% (Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department
of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, 2024). Further, wastelands constitute only ~17% of the
total land area, estimated at 55.76 million hectares in the Wasteland Atlas of India (2019). 11
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
A large part of this is India’s open natural ecosystems (Vanak, and Madhusudan, 2022).
Large-scale renewable projects are often set up on these wastelands. In reality, these open
ecosystems often support grazing, biodiversity, and rural livelihoods (Vanak & Madhusudan,
2022).
As observed, land requirements for the power sector under both the scenarios is projected
to increase over the years. This is majorly driven by the increasing share of renewables.
Under the Current Policy Scenario, the land requirements are projected to reach 4.2 Mha
by 2070, which is equivalent to about 7.5% of the assessed wastelands. Further, under
the Net Zero Scenario the land requirements are projected to reach 5.92 Mha by 2070,
which is equivalent to about 11% of the assessed wastelands. In both the scenarios the
wasteland estimates for clean energy deployment constitute a substantial portion of the
available wastelands. Given this, the diversion of such ecosystems for setting up large-scale
renewable energy projects necessitates rigorous safeguards to mitigate socioeconomic and
ecological impacts.
Concurrently, water requirements of the power sector evolve differently across scenarios as
the generation mix shifts (see Figure 2.2).
6.46 6.63
10.90 11.07
9.90
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
203020502070
Water Requirement (BCM)
CPS NZS
9.13
Billion Cubic Metre
Figure 2.2: Water requirement under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Under both scenarios, water consumption increases substantially by mid-century and declines
thereafter. This is driven by the rising share of renewables which have low operational water
requirements. It is further noted that the water consumption in the Net Zero Scenario
remains higher than the water consumption under the Current Policy Scenarios throughout.
This is due to greater nuclear capacity and the scaling up of green hydrogen production
under the Net Zero Scenario.
Water use within renewable systems varies considerably by technology and practice. It
ranges from 3 to 8 litres per module for traditional manual cleaning to less than 1.5 litres
for optimised systems, with waterless robotic solutions now providing a zero-consumption
alternative (Renewable Watch, 2020). Green hydrogen production typically has a water 12
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
consumption intensity ranging from 17.5 to 22.3 litres per kilogram (IRENA and Bluerisk,
2023). However, when accounting for additional requirements like purification and process
cooling, the total water withdrawal reaches approximately 32 litres per kilogram.
In addition, it is to be noted that despite lower aggregate water demand, local water stress
does not disappear in renewables-dominated systems. Solar parks in arid and semi-arid
states will continue to require water for maintenance. Similarly, large-scale green hydrogen
production is likely to create new industrial water demand hotspots near refineries and
industrial clusters.
Moreover, renewables create indirect resource pressures along their value chains. Grid
expansion (transmission corridors and substations) adds to land footprints (besides the
estimates in Figure 2.1), while battery storage depends on minerals such as lithium, cobalt,
and nickel, whose extraction is water-intensive. Lithium extraction has significant water
requirements, that is, extracting one ton of lithium requires approximately 5,00,000 gallons
of water (Greenmatch, 2024). Further, every tonne of mined lithium results in 15 tonnes of
CO
2
emissions in the environment. Nickel mining, often from laterite ores, can impact the
natural ecosystem (Genchi et al.,2020).
Taken together, India’s energy transition will reconfigure resource pressures. In both pathways,
basin-level and region-specific planning will be critical to reconcile energy expansion with
limited freshwater availability and competing land uses. Recycling, responsible sourcing, and
integrated infrastructure planning will therefore be essential.
2.2 SPATIAL ASPECTS OF TRANSITION
India’s land and water resource needs for renewable energy expansion needs to be seen in
the context of demographic growth, ecological considerations, and multiple development
priorities. This needs a closer examination of trajectories, including their geographic
distribution, intersections with prevailing land uses, and other conditions.
India’s renewable energy reforms have accelerated utility-scale solar deployment alongside
wind and hybrids through several reform measures such as the Payment Security Mechanism,
Waiver of Inter-State transmission charges, 100% FDI under the automatic route, the Green
Energy Corridors programme etc. As a result, utility-scale solar constitutes ~100 GW of 130
GW total installed capacity, with 135 GW under construction. Wind power (including new
onshore projects, repowering of ageing wind farms, and an increasing share of wind–solar
hybrid installations) constitutes more than 50 GW of the installed capacity, with over 30
GW under various stages of development (PIB, 2025).
While these measures have facilitated rapid scale-up, they have also created conditions
favouring large, contiguous sites in resource-rich zones. As per the Renewable Energy
Statistics for 2024-25the RE capacity is geographically concentrated in five states: Rajasthan,
Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka as shown in Figure 2.3 (MNRE, 2025).
These together account for nearly 75% of installed solar and wind capacity. 13
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Figure 2.3: Solar capacity in various states in 2024 - 2025
These regions driving renewable expansion are largely located in arid and semi-arid areas,
with 56% of all solar installations nationally located in water-stressed zones, amplifying
ecological and hydrological risks for local communities (Gupta, 2019). This spatial overlap
of renewable deployment intensity and vulnerable population concentrations creates
distributional challenges that need to be addressed. When renewable projects are sited in
these regions, they systematically concentrate development pressures on populations with
low capacity to absorb them.
2.3 CHALLENGES
1. Diversion of open ecosystems:
Government assessments identify ~55 million hectares as wastelands. A large part
of this is India’s open natural ecosystems (Vanak, and Madhusudan, 2022). Large-
scale renewable projects are often set up on these wastelands. In reality, these
open ecosystems often support grazing, fuelwood, and minor forest produce.
The diversion of open ecosystems needs to be carefully managed to protect the
livelihoods of people dependent on these areas.
2. Ecological Disruptions and Biodiversity Impacts:
India’s transition spans vulnerable ecosystems such as the Western Ghats, Thar and
Kutch grasslands, and coastal wetlands, which host endemic and endangered species
(Shivaprakash, 2022). Renewable installations often impact these habitats through
land clearing, fragmentation, and construction of roads and transmission lines. The 14
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
consequences include vegetation loss, increased soil erosion, and disrupted wildlife
corridors. Further, these can impair ecosystem services like carbon sequestration, soil
retention, and hydrological regulation. Climate change amplifies these vulnerabilities.
3. Water Stress and Hydrological Competition:
The rapid expansion of renewable energy infrastructure unfolds within regions
experiencing increasing hydrological constraints. Groundwater over-exploitation
affects over 25% of administrative units in several states, with renewable zones
increasingly coinciding with “Critical” and “Over-exploited” districts (Central Ground
Water Board, 2025). Emerging low-carbon industries concentrate withdrawals near
such areas, amplifying competing sectoral demands. Coordinated water allocation
mechanisms are needed to manage this.
2.4 SUGGESTIONS
1. Land-Neutral and Water-Efficient Pathways: Technological innovation offers
pathways to decouple renewable deployment from competing uses of land and
water. Agrivoltaics, floating solar, and built-environment integration demonstrate that
energy expansion need not displace existing productive land use while preserving
agricultural output and reducing water consumption.
To scale these models, there is a need to address the premium costs associated with
these technologies. For example, Agri-Photo Voltaic (APV) systems typically cost upto
40% more than ground-mounted PV because of specialised structures and dual-use
design (Pandey et al., 2025). Floating solar also exhibits higher levelized costs, with a
Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) of ~₹4.32/kWh (US$0.052/kWh) compared to recent
utility-scale solar tariffs of ~₹2.4–₹2.8/kWh (Mondragon Assembly, 2024). Accordingly,
pursuing these options needs targeted viability-gap support or concessional debt to
socialise the land-benefit while keeping retail tariffs stable.
For floating solar, comprehensive reservoir mapping through the Central Water
Commission and state irrigation departments may be undertaken to identify suitable
areas. Further, complementing these approaches, building-integrated photovoltaics,
railway-mounted solar, and highway installations can be supported through relevant
ministries and departments.
2. Strengthen Spatial Planning: For projects that remain land-intensive, robust siting
strategies are essential. Platforms such as the Integrated Biodiversity Assessment
Tool (IBAT) and the Avian Sensitivity Tool for Energy Planning (AVISTEP) enable
developers to avoid ecologically sensitive habitats. Coupled with accurate land records
and structured community consultations, such tools can reduce contestation and
improve the credibility of siting decisions. Importantly, these process can integrate
local communities to ensure that mapping translates into legitimate outcomes on
the ground.
India’s extensive stock of degraded and converted lands offers an underutilised
opportunity for clean energy. These lands have limited agricultural value but can
host solar and wind projects with relatively low social cost. Additionally, repurposing
the 2,500 km² of land already mined for coal and lignite would serve dual goals: 15
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
advancing low carbon development while supporting a just transition in mining-
dependent regions by creating new jobs and infrastructure.
3. Scale implementation of decentralised models: Decentralised Renewable Energy
(DRE) represents another critical lever. Rooftop solar, mini-grids, solar pumps, and
solar street lighting extend access without large-scale land acquisition, directly
supporting rural livelihoods and last-mile electrification. Such models enable inclusive
access, local ownership, and equitable benefit-sharing.
Decentralised models implemented through Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs)
and cooperatives also provide economies of scale, wherein farmers not only retain
land but also receive additional revenue from the sale of surplus power. While this
model is important for inclusivity, only a small share of FPOs/Cooperatives currently
has the institutional strength to manage large DRE projects at scale.
The more scalable pathway lies in Renewable Energy Service Companies (RESCOs)
and private developers, who can aggregate multiple sites, manage operations
professionally, and access institutional capital. In such models, farmers or communities
lease land, enter service contracts, or share revenues, while developers take on
financing and operational risks.
This aggregation model allows innovation like agrivoltaics or floating solar to be
deployed at scale while still delivering steady livelihood benefits to landowners. To
succeed, however, RESCOs must ensure farmers’ and communities’ interests are
met through measures such as clear contractual frameworks and risk mitigation
instruments that incorporate clear revenue-sharing. To ensure economic inclusion,
employment quotas may require developers to source their workforce from host
districts, with provisions for marginalised communities and dedicated training for
skilled roles, moving beyond temporary casual labour.
4. Developing Fit-for-Purpose Financing Models: A fundamental barrier to the scaling
of innovative renewable energy models and community participation is access
to affordable and patient capital. Commercial lenders typically require collateral
that farmer organisations and community entities cannot provide, while emerging
technologies face higher perceived risks and longer payback periods. These
constraints limit the participation of small developers, cooperatives, and landholders
in the energy transition.
To address these gaps, India requires a differentiated financing architecture anchored
in public and blended finance. Development finance institutions such as IREDA,
NABARD, and multilateral partners can provide concessional debt, first-loss capital,
and partial credit guarantees to de-risk investments in agrivoltaics, floating solar,
and decentralised renewable energy. Payment security mechanisms such as escrow
accounts, state-backed guarantees, or pooled risk facilities should be established to
mitigate off-take risk, particularly for community-linked and small-scale developers.
While long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) remain central, revenue
diversification should be enabled through participation in emerging capacity markets
and ancillary service markets that value firm capacity, storage, and grid services.
Such mechanisms can improve project bankability while supporting grid stability. 16
Land and Water: The Resource Context Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Crucially, concessional finance and risk guarantees may be explicitly linked to social
performance. Access to preferential capital must be conditional on compliance with
procedural safeguards, including prior consent, transparent benefit-sharing and
local employment commitments. Embedding social conditionality within financing
frameworks ensures that public capital catalyses not only clean energy deployment,
but also durable social outcomes and community trust.
5. Water Resource Management: Currently, energy production is captured under
“industry” in national and state water policies. Bringing energy explicitly into these
policies enables rational priority-setting and efficiency optimization. Safeguards
while prioritizing allocation for energy may include:
a. For coastal zones, the integration of desalination technologies offers a pathway
to reduce freshwater requirements.
b. In regions facing acute groundwater depletion, the focus may shift toward
circularity utilizing treated wastewater for energy production.
c. Prioritise water-lean technologies by incorporating efficiency as evaluation
criteria, rewarding waterless cleaning or closed-loop recycling. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition 3
LIVELIHOOD,
EMPLOYMENT AND
MIGRATION ASPECT India’s development and low-carbon transition unfolds along with shifts in work, livelihoods and
migration patterns. Employment structures determine which households can absorb shocks
from both climate impacts and clean energy deployment, and which are vulnerable. Patterns
of migration, in turn, can act as social “shock absorbers” when they enable people to diversify
income or move out of high-risk zones, or as “shock amplifiers” when migrants are channelled
into precarious, climate-exposed settlements with limited protection. It is thus important to
examine how employment and mobility will be reconfigured in a Net Zero economy, and how
these changes intersect with existing structural inequalities in India’s labour market.
India’s labour force is vast with more than 640 million people employed in 2023–24 and
contributing nearly 52% to Gross Value Added (GVA) (Reserve Bank of India, 2024). The
labour force participation rate has risen steadily, from 49.8% in 2017–18 to 60.1% in 2023–24,
driven largely by a surge in women’s participation from 23.3% to 41.7% in the same period
(Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), 2024).
In terms of employment structure, according to PLFS 2023-24, agriculture employs 43.5%
of workforce while contributing 14.7% of gross value added, while industry generates 21.9%
of output and employs 24.9% and services account for 63.4% of output and employs 31.6%.
The employment landscape is defined by high informality with estimates differing due to
methodological differences (Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI,
2024). PLFS (2023-24) further estimates that over 70% of non-agriculture workers are
informally employed nationally with rural areas having a ratio of 79% and urban having
66% (MoSPI, 2024). Adding to this, the report further suggests that only 21.7% held regular
wage jobs (MoSPI, 2024). Informality pervades both traditional and modern sectors.
Against this backdrop of high informality and uneven job quality, the employment impacts
of India’s low-carbon transition acquire particular significance. Energy systems are not only
central to economic growth but also anchor livelihoods across regions, value chains, and
skill levels. As the transition reshapes energy production, infrastructure, and supply chains,
it will directly affect where jobs are created, which skills are valued, and which workers face
displacement. Examining employment dynamics within fossil-fuel and clean energy sectors
therefore provides a critical lens to assess how the Net Zero transition may redistribute risks
and opportunities across India’s workforce.
India’s fossil-fuel supply chains, including coal, oil, and gas, remain major employers, but they
are increasingly exposed to transition risks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) (2024)
estimates that in 2023, India’s energy sector employed 8.5 million workers, of which 3 million
were in electricity generation and grid, and 2.4 million in coal, oil, and gas supply. These figures
capture only direct employment; when indirect jobs are included, the scale expands substantially.
3
Livelihood,
employment and
migration aspect 19
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
On other hand, clean energy is emerging as an important driver of job growth across the
energy sector. In India, energy sector employment grew 3% year-on-year to 8.5 million, with
clean energy jobs expanding by 5%, higher than the 2% growth in fossil-fuel jobs (IEA, 2024).
However, vulnerabilities and opportunities of the Net Zero transition are deeply spatial in
nature. The following section therefore undertakes a state-level analysis to examine how
the energy transition is likely to reshape employment, migration, and livelihood outcomes
across regions, and what this implies for targeted policy responses.
3.1 STATE-LEVEL ECONOMIC STRUCTURES AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS
FOR EMPLOYMENT AND MIGRATION
India’s transition to a developed economy by 2047 and subsequently to Net Zero emissions
by 2070 will not unfold uniformly across the country. States enter this dual transition
with markedly different economic structures, labour markets, and exposure to climate
and transition risks. These structural differences shape how shocks are absorbed, where
employment opportunities emerge, and which regions face the greatest risks of dislocation.
A state-level classification of economic structure is therefore essential to move beyond a
one-size-fits-all transition strategy and to identify differentiated pathways for development,
employment creation, and low-carbon transition. Such a framework helps anticipate where
labour displacement is likely, where clean energy and green industrial opportunities can be
scaled most effectively, and where targeted policy support through skilling, social protection,
or regional investment will be most critical.
In the analysis discussed subsequently, an attempt has been made to categorise states
under broad economic profiles namely agriculture-dominant, industry-dominant, services-
dominant, and balanced states based on their output and employment structures. This
categorisation provides a lens to assess how India’s development and climate transitions
intersect at the sub-national level, and how policy responses must be sequenced and tailored
across states rather than applied uniformly.
1. Agriculture-Dominant States: In the agrarian heartland, agriculture’s share Net State
Value Added (NSVA) and employment in many states is above the national average (17.3%
Gross Value Added (GVA) and 43% of employment). As per PLFS and National Accounts
2022–23, this includes: Madhya Pradesh (37.1 % of NVSA and, 56% of employment), Uttar
Pradesh (24.7%, 51.9%), Rajasthan (29.7%, 50.8%), Bihar (20.5%, 48.6%). Among these
states, more than half of the workforce remains concentrated in agriculture in Madhya
Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar.
This concentration reflects persistent low labour productivity, limiting income growth
and local absorption capacity outside farming. As a result, migration functions as a
primary livelihood diversification strategy for working-age men and women, allowing
households to offset seasonal income volatility, and climate-related shocks. According
to the last comprehensive migration survey undertaken in 2020–21, male migration is
overwhelmingly driven by employment (Migration in India, MoSPI, 2023), and Census
2011 highlights Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha, and Rajasthan as the states
with the highest shares of male outmigrants (Office of the Registrar General & Census
Commissioner, India, 2011). 20
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
2. Industry-Led States: Among industry-led states, crucial distinctions exist between
manufacturing-driven, mining-driven, and construction-driven industrial structures.
These differences shape both employment outcomes and exposure to transition risks.
(a) Manufacturing-driven states: Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra account for
the bulk of India’s manufacturing output. Alongside these large manufacturing
giants, a sizeable manufacturing base is also evident in smaller states. Goa, Sikkim,
Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh emerge as smaller but genuine manufacturing
hubs. In these states, pharmaceuticals and chemicals dominate production, while
in some cases automobiles and light engineering have developed under tax
incentives and industrial clustering policies.
(b) Mining-driven states: Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Assam and Tripura, are characterised by
mining- and metals-led industrial structures. These sectors generate substantial output
but absorb relatively few workers, resulting in high output concentration without
corresponding broad-based employment. Such structures heighten vulnerability to
energy transitions, particularly as fossil-fuel–linked activities face long-term decline.
(c) Construction-driven states: Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar, Kerala, Manipur, Nagaland,
Chandigarh, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are the states where construction
contributes more than 50% of industry Net State Value Added (NSVA). Construction
functions as a labour sponge, particularly for migrants and low-skilled workers, but
remains cyclical, highly informal, and weak in long-term productivity gains. The
Internal Migration in Asia report highlights that such workers typically operate
without adequate protections or safety nets, rendering them especially vulnerable
to downturns in construction activity and climate-related disruptions.
3. Service-Driven States: A third pattern emerges in service-driven states, where services
account for far more than the national benchmark of 54.9% Gross Value Added (GVA).
Delhi (85.9% Net State Value Added (NSVA), 66.9% employment) and Chandigarh
(90.4%, 84.8%) are the most extreme, dominated almost entirely by public administration
and tertiary services.
Karnataka (64.8% NSVA, 35% employment), Telangana (62.0%, 34.6%), and Kerala (64.9%,
49.4%) also far exceed the national benchmark, powered by IT, remittances, and tourism.
The North-East similarly reveals service-led structures: Manipur (71.1% NSVA, 38.1%
employment), Nagaland (65.7%, 38.4%), and Meghalaya (63.2%, 31.5%), though here
much of the service activity reflects government administration.
4. Balanced States: A handful of states emerge as balanced giants, like Tamil Nadu, Gujarat,
and Maharashtra who have substantial contributions from agriculture, industry, and services.
These states exhibit diversification and resilience, absorbing labour effectively while
exemplifying the structural transformation essential for nationwide replication (Table 3.1). 21
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Table 3.1: Categorisation of states based on economic and employment structures
CategoryStates
Agriculture dominant Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar
Manufacturing-led industry Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh
Construction-led industry NE-states
Services driven Delhi, Chandigarh, Karnataka, Telangana
Balanced giantsMaharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat
This differentiation is particularly critical for understanding employment risks linked to
fossil-fuel dependent sectors. States with mining- and metals-led industrial structures host a
concentrated workforce tied to coal, minerals, and energy-intensive industries, making them
disproportionately exposed to transition related job losses. As India advances toward the Net
Zero, these sectoral and spatial concentrations will determine where labour displacement
pressures are most acute and where proactive reskilling, diversification, and social protection
measures must be prioritised.
3.2 FOSSIL-FUEL DEPENDENCE AND VULNERABILITY
India’s economic structure, as reflected in the state-level typology above, is not only uneven
across sectors and regions but is also deeply intertwined with the fossil-fuel economy. Coal,
oil, and gas have historically underpinned industrialisation, electricity supply, and energy-
intensive manufacturing, particularly in mining-driven and heavy-industry-oriented states.
This legacy has produced pronounced regional concentrations of fossil-fuel dependence,
where entire districts rely on coal mining, thermal power, refineries, steel, cement, and
fertiliser industries for both employment and public revenues. 22
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Box-2: Spatial distribution of fossil-fuel supply chains
An estimate suggests that over 150 districts across India are significantly dependent
on fossil-fuel supply chains, directly or indirectly sustaining livelihoods for nearly one-
third of India’s population (Bhushan and Banerjee, 2021) (See Figure 3.1). This spatial
clustering means that the transition away from fossil-fuel will be a lived reality in specific
parts of India, where jobs, state finances, and induced economies are interwoven with
fossil-fuel economy.
Figure 3.1 : Districts dependent on fossil-fuel economy 23
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Coal mining remains the backbone of fossil-fuel employment. As of April 2024, Coal India
Limited (CIL) employed 2,28,861 workers (regular and contractual) in its subsidiaries across
Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh (Ministry of Coal, 2024). However,
this number masks the wider reality: large numbers of contract, transport, loading, and
ancillary workers operate outside CIL’s rolls. According to this working group, formal coal
mine employment is about 3,45,000 workers (See Table 3.2) (Working group analysis), while
the informal workforce is at least twice as large. This implies that over 1 million people are
directly dependent on coal mining.
While induced employment captures the wider local economy, the core of coal mining jobs
remains concentrated in formal departmental and contractual workers employed directly by
Coal India Limited and its subsidiaries. These workers form the backbone of coal’s direct
labour force and are distributed across a handful of key coal-bearing states. Table 3.2
provides a state-wise breakdown of this formal workforce, highlighting how employment is
clustered in India, together accounting for well over half of total coal mine jobs.
Table 3.2: Workforce dependent on coal mining
State
Departmental
workers
Contractual
workers
Total formal workers
(Departmental+Contractual)
Jharkhand63,7226,82170,543
Telangana35,46923,16658,635
Madhya Pradesh31,677 21,22452,901
West Bengal40,7024,11144,813
Chhattisgarh28,70213,61442,316
Odisha18,692 21,82340,515
Maharashtra21,1407,94729,087
Uttar Pradesh2,5153,7376,252
Assam43447
Total2,42,662 1,02,4473,45,109
Source: Working group analysis. Mine-wise workforce data has been procured from CIL and its subsidiaries over the
last two years (2022-2024).
* Informal workers vary as per state. For example, in Odisha, it is nearly 1.6 times, while in Jharkhand it is as high as 3
times. Therefore, for estimation in the text, an average of nearly 2 times of the formal workforce has been considered.
Yet the actual footprint of coal goes further. Surveys conducted in coal-mining regions
reveal that each direct job generates multiple induced jobs in the surrounding economy.
Within a 10 km radius of mines, retail, transport, food services, repair shops, and daily wage
activities thrive on coal incomes. In Bokaro (Jharkhand), every direct job supports three
induced jobs; in Korba (Chhattisgarh) the ratio rises to over four; and in Angul (Odisha) it is
just above two. This multiplier effect underscores how coal sustains not only mine workers
but also entire local economies (Table 3.3). 24
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Table 3.3: Ratio of direct and induced jobs in coal mining areas
DistrictDirect jobs Induced jobsRatio
Bokaro (Jharkhand)44,230130,8843.0
Korba (Chhattisgarh)25,441105,1594.1
Angul (Odisha)37,00278,6712.1
Source: Working group (Vol 11) analysis using 2023 mines data.
Looking ahead: mine-level assessments suggest that by 2030, around 178,000 formal jobs
could be impacted and at least double that informally. Without reskilling and social protection,
this can generate acute dislocation in coal belts such as Bokaro, Korba, and Angul.
Coal-Based Thermal Power Plants: Coal-fired thermal power plants (TPPs) form the backbone
of India’s electricity system, accounting for the bulk of installed capacity and generation. As
on 2024-25 the 221.8 GW of coal capacity exists across the country (Institute for Energy
Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), 2025). Applying the CEA’s standard employment
factor of 0.63 personnel per MW, this capacity supports ~1,40,000 formal workers in plant
operations, spanning engineers, operators, technicians, and administrative staff.
However, the formal workforce represents only part of the picture. TPPs are embedded
within extensive local economies of contractors, transporters, maintenance workers, loaders,
and service providers. District-level assessments suggest that informal jobs are at least twice
as numerous as formal jobs. On this assumption, the informal workforce associated with
coal-based TPPs adds up to around 2,80,000 workers. In total, therefore, TPPs sustain close
to 4,20,000 jobs nationwide making them one of the single largest sources of industrial
employment in India. The state-wise distribution of coal TPP employment reflects the
geography of India’s power system (See Table 3.4). Major industrial states dominate:
Table 3.4: State-wise workforce dependent on coal-based thermal power plant generation
StateTotal workers
Uttar Pradesh52,986
Maharashtra46,619
Chhattisgarh44,770
Madhya Pradesh41,580
Gujarat30,414
Tamil Nadu26,767
West Bengal25,490
Andhra Pradesh24,929
Rajasthan20,374
Telangana19,358
Odisha18,144
Karnataka17,917
Bihar17,123 25
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
StateTotal workers
Punjab10,735
Jharkhand10,527
Haryana10,074
Assam1,418
Source: State installed capacity from ICED (2024-25)
This concentration underscores both the economic weight and vulnerability of coal-fired
power. States reliant on coal mining are doubly exposed, hosting not only mines but also
large clusters of thermal power plants. Moreover, while formal jobs are relatively secure, the
majority of TPP-dependent livelihoods are informal and therefore the first to be affected
when units scale back, or switch fuels.
Looking ahead, the age profile of India’s TPP fleet compounds the challenge. While over
three-fourths of current capacity is under 20 years old, by 2040 almost two-thirds of the
existing fleet will cross 25 years of age, approaching or exceeding their design life. Timely
planning is needed to protect the affected workforce.
Fossil-Fuel-Linked Manufacturing and Downstream Industries: Beyond coal mining and
power generation, India’s manufacturing base hosts a set of industries structurally tied to
fossil-fuels, either as feedstock or as dominant energy inputs. These sectors employ millions
of workers, both formal and informal, and are geographically concentrated in states that
also host coal mines and thermal power plants, thereby compounding their vulnerability to
the energy transition.
The Annual Survey of Industries (ASI, 2022–23) records around 7 million formal workers
across fossil-fuel-linked manufacturing sectors (textiles, paper & pulp, basic metals and non-
metallic minerals, petroleum products, chemical products, manufacturing and maintenance
of vehicles), while the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE, 2023–
24) shows an additional 9.9 million informal workers in the same sectors (see Annexure-1
for sector-wise breakup).
(a) Textiles remain the largest single employer, with 1.72 million formal workers and 3.41
million informal workers. Though not often counted as “fossil-fuel industries,” textiles
are highly energy-intensive, especially in synthetic fibres, dyeing, and processing,
which still rely on coal-fired captive plants.
(b) Non-metallic minerals, driven by cement, employ 1.05 million formal workers and
2.61 million informal workers.. Cement production is one of the most coal-intensive
manufacturing processes, with captive thermal units powering kilns.
(c) Basic metals including steel and aluminium employ 1.41 million formal and 0.27 million
informal workers. These industries are structurally tied to coal, both for coking and
as feedstock for captive power.
(d) In energy-linked sectors, petroleum products account for about 1,69,000 formal jobs
and 51,000 informal jobs, clustered around refinery hubs. Chemical products, including
fertilisers, add another 1.06 million formal and 176,000 informal workers, heavily reliant
on natural gas feedstocks and petroleum derivatives. 26
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
(e) The automobile sector spans both manufacturing and downstream services.
Motor vehicle manufacturing provides 1.26 million formal jobs and around 63,000
informal jobs. Downstream, the retail and repair of vehicles-entirely informal adds
over 3.0 million jobs (710,000 in sales, 2.35 million in repair). Taken together, the
auto economy remains one of the largest fossil-fuel-linked employment clusters,
vulnerable to electrification and automation.
In total, these fossil-fuel-linked industries represent a labour force of 16.9 million, with well
over half concentrated in the informal sector. Unlike coal mining and TPPs, where risks arise
from plant closures, these sectors face gradual disruption from technological substitution:
low-carbon cement, green steel, bio-based textiles, and electric vehicles. The challenge is
sharper because the bulk of workers, small contractors, repair shops, unregistered cement
kiln staff, and dyeing unit helpers are informal and thus most exposed to volatility.
3.3 GENDER DIMENSION
Employment patterns in India are uneven across states, sectors, and gender. Women are
concentrated in agriculture (60.6% per PLFS 2022–23 vs. 35.6% men) and informal work,
with limited presence in fossil-fuel linked industries exposed to transition risks. Only 16.2% of
women work in the secondary sector (vs. 28.9% men), and 23.1% in services (vs. 35.6% men).
Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE, 2023–24) reveals informality’s
granularity: women dominate textiles (1.76 million vs. 1.65 million men) but are marginal in
heavy industries like basic metals/petroleum (<25,000 each), vehicle repair (18,465 vs. 2.33
million men), and retail (49,000 vs. 661,000 men). Migration reinforces this. PLFS 2020–21
shows 42.9% of men migrate for work vs. 0.7% women (mostly marriage-related).
These vulnerabilities amplify transition risks (Nayak and Swain, 2023). Women are less
represented in formal fossil-fuel jobs and associated benefits (compensation, retraining),
while their informal livelihoods (coal collection, agriculture, textiles, construction) will be
impacted first.
3.4 PROJECTIONS: THE SHAPE OF WORKFORCE TRANSITION
As India embarks on the Net Zero transition, the employment landscape will undergo fundamental
changes. Global scenarios and country-level models converge on a key insight: clean energy
investments will reshape jobs, but need careful planning to achieve equitable outcomes.
Employment impacts are assessed leveraging inputs from the report on Macroeconomic
Implications (Vol. 2) to analyse labour market changes under both the Current Policies
Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero Scenario (NZS). In the Current Policy Scenario, the broad
employment pattern in energy sector largely remains stable in 2022 with an employment
of 6 million by 2050. Coal, Oil, Gas and Electricity account for the bulk of employment. By
2070, total jobs will be 4 million primarily due to improvements in energy efficiency and
technological progress. As the economy becomes less energy-intensive, fewer workers are
required both in direct energy production and in the upstream and downstream sectors that
supply or depend on energy, leading to a gradual contraction in employment.
However, in the Net Zero Scenario, industry records higher employment than the Current
Policy Scenario, for both skilled and unskilled workers, reflecting rising demand from clean 27
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
technology manufacturing and renewable energy infrastructure. With rapid expansion in
clean energy, energy sector jobs will be 7 million by 2050 (1 million higher than the Current
Policy Scenario) and 4.5 million in 2070 (0.5 million higher than the Current Policy Scenario).
These results are consistent with the IEA’s World Energy Employment 2024, which projects
India’s energy jobs to grow by over 20% under its stated policies scenario, driven largely
by clean energy deployment.
Beyond the energy sector, the Net Zero transition can deliver substantial economy-wide job
gains under supportive policies. Job creation is concentrated in construction, road transport,
and trade. Under the optimistic scenario
1
, construction emerges as the single largest
contributor, adding 4.6 million additional jobs in 2050 compared to the Current Policy
Scenario. This is driven by the labour needs of utility-scale RE build-out, grid expansion, and
low-carbon infrastructure. Road transport and trade also expand, with road transport adding
67,000 additional jobs in 2050 compared to the Current Policy Scenario. Trade contributes
a cumulative 5.2 million jobs additional over the Current Policy Scenario during 2030–2070.
This demonstrates that the Net Zero transition can be a major engine of employment outside
the energy sector when combined with targeted complementary policies
Taken together, these projections show that the transition can be a net engine of job
growth, not just in the energy sector but across the broader economy. However, geographic
mismatches between fossil-fuel energy regions versus renewable energy potential areas will
require deliberate policies for worker relocation, reskilling, and social protection to ensure
that the benefits of transition are inclusive and equitably distributed.
While these projections suggest that the Net Zero transition can generate more jobs
than it displaces, the gains are not automatic. Realising them will depend on two critical
conditions: workers in fossil-fuel-heavy regions being reskilled for emerging opportunities,
and investments flowing into the states where jobs are being lost. Current evidence points
to sharp skill gaps particularly among informal coal workers who remain largely unskilled or
semi-skilled and a geographic mismatch between fossil-fuel led economies and the locations
where renewable energy investments are being deployed. Policies to bridge these gaps are
needed so that projected green jobs at risk concentrated in a few states and sectors can
benefit. These challenges, and the policies needed to address them, are discussed in the
following section.
3.5 CHALLENGES AND SUGGESTIONS
Livelihoods are central to India’s climate resilient development strategy and to its feasibility
and legitimacy. There is a need to address spatially concentrated fossil-fuel dependence,
informality, skills gaps, migration and institutional fragmentation. This will further determine
whether jobs and mobility function as “buffers” that help households navigate climate and
transition risks, or as “amplifiers” that may deepen vulnerability.
1. Spatially concentrated fossil-fuel dependence and uneven emergence of green jobs:
Without deliberate spatial planning, coal and fossil-fuel belts may experience job loss
and fiscal stress, while green growth benefits accrue elsewhere.
1 Net Zero Scenario wherein financing source is foreign, incremental finance is unproductive and subsidies are
provided for deployment of clean energy protecting the low-income households. For details refer to report on
Macroeconomic Implications (Vol. 2). 28
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Suggestions:
(a) Create a national policy framework for worker retraining, relocation support, and
economic diversification in districts affected by industrial decline. Dedicated funding
mechanisms such as the District Mineral Foundation in mining regions can be
leveraged alongside coordinated efforts by the Skill India Mission and the Skill Council
for Green Jobs (SCGJ) to transition workers from declining industries into emerging
green sectors.
(b) Using a national framework, integrated district-level transition plans may be developed
for identified high-risk regions, combining economic diversification strategies,
infrastructure investment, and workforce support, rather than addressing employment,
skills, and investment in isolation. Within these plans, economic diversification can
focus on building new, locally anchored sources of growth that reduce dependence
on fossil-fuel–linked activities and strengthen long-term regional resilience.
2. Informality and inadequate social protection for affected workers:
A large proportion of workers in coal mines, coal logistics, construction and fossil-fuel-
linked manufacturing are informal, employed through contractors or as casual labour,
without written contracts and other benefits. Women are concentrated in precarious
segments, such as coal picking, cleaning, auxiliary services and low-paid manufacturing,
and are often invisible in official employment records.
Suggestions:
(a) Upgrade e-Shram to capture sectoral affiliation, contract type, geolocation including
migration status, and skill levels, linking informal occupations directly to fossil-fuel-
linked industries.
(b) Operationalise social protection entitlements for informal and contract workers
in transition contexts, ensuring that existing schemes are effectively accessible to
workers facing displacement or income loss due to industrial transition.
(c) Establish dedicated transition facilitation units at the local level, to support worker
registration, benefit access, and coordination across schemes, with specific outreach
to women and other invisible worker groups.
3. Fragmented and supply-driven skilling systems:
India’s skilling ecosystem is fragmented across ITIs, the National Skill Development
Corporation, state skill missions, company-led training and Sector Skill Councils.
Curricula often lag behind rapidly evolving needs in renewable energy, storage, electric
mobility, digital grids and green manufacturing. Regions with high fossil-fuel dependent
supply chains have predominantly workers who have skills in manual and semi-skilled
industrial tasks but limited exposure to new technologies, while women face additional
constraints related to mobility, norms and care responsibilities. In this context, generic
training programmes may not generate employment outcomes, while employers report
difficulty finding workers with appropriate skills for green jobs.
Suggestions:
Accelerate development of sector-specific transition skill roadmaps to identify at-
risk occupations in fossil-fuel–linked and carbon-intensive sectors and map pathways 29
Livelihood, employment and migration aspect Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
for reskilling into low-carbon roles, enabling workers and firms to adapt smoothly to
decarbonisation pressures. Key elements of such roadmap to include:
(a) Align state-level skilling initiatives with sectoral decarbonisation roadmaps, identifying
specific occupations and competencies required in renewables, grid modernisation,
electric mobility, energy efficiency, and climate-resilient sectors.
(b) Strengthen employer participation in skilling systems, including curriculum design and
on-the-job training, with incentives for firms that commit to hiring and mentoring
workers from transitioning regions.
(c) Introduce targeted provisions for women and youth, including safe transport, childcare
support, and flexible training schedules, to ensure equitable access to emerging
employment opportunities in the low-carbon economy.
(d) Prioritise on-the-job training and practice-oriented skilling to upskill the existing
workforce, particularly in emerging technologies and new production processes,
ensuring that training leads to employable competencies rather than stand-alone
certifications.
4. Climate- and transition-induced migration:
Migrants often settle in informal urban neighbourhoods without adequate housing,
water, sanitation, waste management and health services. Labour markets at destinations
frequently absorb them into low-wage work in construction, transport, informal services
and gig platforms. These conditions can turn migration from a coping strategy into a
driver of new vulnerabilities.
Suggestions:
(a) Local planning frameworks may recognise climate- and transition-induced migrants
as a priority group for access to affordable urban housing, basic services and social
protection, building on initiatives such as the One Nation One Ration Card to improve
portability of entitlements.
(b) Implementation of the newly notified Labour Codes may prioritise high-migrant sectors
through accelerated rollout, focused inspections, and enhanced compliance monitoring.
This strengthens occupational safety, wage protection, and working conditions in
construction, small manufacturing, logistics, domestic work, and gig-based services.
Enforcement mechanisms may further adapt to informality, subcontracting, and
platform-based employment models that disproportionately affect migrant workers. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition HEALTH EQUITY AND
WELLBEING IN INDIA’S
NET ZERO TRANSITION
4 32Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Over the past decade, the country has achieved significant progress in socio-economic
development and health outcomes. Efforts to improve access to healthcare, sanitation,
and nutrition have led to notable reductions in child and maternal mortality and a decline
in communicable diseases, supporting the goals of inclusive growth and sustainable
development.
India’s healthcare transformation is guided by the vision of “Health for All”. The government
has made unprecedented strides in expanding access, improving quality, and ensuring
affordability. Landmark initiatives like Ayushman Bharat- Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana
(PM-JAY), Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission (ABDM), PM-ABHIM, POSHAN Abhiyaan, and
Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY), PM JANMAN, eSanjeevani, and many others
have strengthened healthcare systems, improved maternal and child health indicators, and
enhanced nutrition security through community participation and technological innovation,
particularly in rural and underserved regions (PIB, 2025; PIB, 2026). Investments in
infrastructure, digital health, immunisation, and medical education have created a robust
foundation for future health security. India’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign marked a
turning point in India’s public healthcare journey, delivering over 2.2 billion doses through
indigenous vaccines and the digital CoWIN platform at unmatched global scale and speed
(PIB, 2025).
India’s transition to clean energy presents significant health co-benefits. For instance, urban
greening through trees, parks, and reflective surfaces reduces reduce heat stress, improve air
quality, and lowers heat-related illness in cities (MoHUA, 2014, MoHUA, 2021). Complementary
measures such as green buildings, reflective roofs, and permeable surfaces enhance indoor
comfort, manage stormwater, and support urban biodiversity. Further, investments in public
transport like metro rail, electric vehicles, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, and walking
and cycling infrastructure are delivering better air quality, noise reduction, and physical
activity benefits in Indian cities (NITI Aayog, RMI, 2022). These shifts improve safety and
accessibility, especially for women, children, and the elderly, while contributing to long-term
urban health and resilience.
The shift to cleaner fuels for cooking lowers rates of respiratory infections and eye irritation,
particularly among women and children. It also lessens the burden of fuel collection, freeing
time for education and livelihoods. India has made significant progress in expanding access
to modern cooking energy, particularly through large-scale distribution of LPG connections
under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) (PMUY, 2024; PIB, 2024).
4
Health Equity and
Wellbeing in India’s
Net Zero Transition 33
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Further, the transition to organic and climate-smart farming reduces chemical exposure,
lowers emissions, improves soil quality, and improves nutrition security. Reduced crop
residue burning further improves seasonal air quality (Patel et al., 2022). Health benefits are
strongest for women farmers, rural households, and children. Renewable energy deployment
strengthens health infrastructure by improving power affordability and reliability for clinics,
vaccine cold chains, and emergency services, particularly in remote areas (Concessao et al.,
2023). Better energy access supports maternal and child health outcomes and enhances
healthcare equity.
While there are noticeable improvements and prospective benefits from transition to a
Net Zero economy, climate change has emerged as a major challenge to public health.
Rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and deteriorating air quality are affecting
key determinants of health such as safe drinking water, nutritious food, and healthy living
conditions. These impacts are particularly severe for vulnerable groups including women,
children, the elderly, and socio-economically disadvantaged populations with limited
adaptive capacity.
The following section deals with vulnerabilities that arise mainly from climate change. It
elaborates on the impact on human health, the existing policy landscape, followed by
suggestions to strengthen climate resilient health systems.
4.1 VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND
ENERGY TRANSITION ON HEALTH
Vulnerability to climate change in India arises from the intersection of environmental hazards,
social and economic inequality, demographic profile, and the capacity of local systems to
absorb shocks. The section below discusses direct and indirect impacts of climate change.
I. Direct Impacts
(a) Extreme Heat
In India, about 57% of the districts, home to 76% of the country’s population,
are currently at high to very high risk from extreme heat (Centre for Science
and Environment, 2024). Rising temperatures, intensified by recurring heatwaves,
represent India’s most immediate and escalating climate-related health threat.
According to data from the National Centre for Disease Control (2024), there
were 48,156 suspected heatstroke cases in 2024. A total of 430 heatstroke related
deaths (comprising 161 confirmed and 269 suspected) were reported nationwide
in the same.
Urban Heat Island effects, where cities trap heat during the day and release it at
night, thus increasing nighttime temperatures further compound risks in densely
populated cities. The rise in very warm nights is most noticeable in districts with
a large population (over 10 lakh), which are often home to Tier I and II cities
(Prabhu et al, 2025). Over the last decade, nearly 70% of districts experienced an
additional five very warm nights per summer (March to June). In comparison, only
~28% of districts experienced five or more additional very hot days. 34
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Table 4.1 shows few cities that have experienced additional very warm nights per
summer in the last decade (2012-2022).
Table 4.1: Heat Island impact in major cities
CityAdditional Very Warm Nights Per Summer
Mumbai15
Bengaluru11
Bhopal7
Jaipur7
Delhi6
Chennai4
By 2050, 50% of India’s population is expected to live in urban areas (UN-DESA
2018). Heat island effects therefore pose a serious threat to the population as
it can lead to a higher incidence of heat-related illnesses and cardiovascular
morbidity, especially among infants, the elderly, and those residing in inadequately
ventilated settlements (Romanello et al., 2025). National and local studies,
including the Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan, have established a direct linkage
between the intensity and duration of heatwave periods and spikes in mortality
rates, underscoring the necessity for city-level adaptation planning (Hess et al.,
2018; Azhar et al., 2014; Knowlton et al., 2014).
(b) Extreme Weather Events
Extreme weather events, including floods and cyclonic storms, are increasing and
are known to inflict acute and large-scale health impacts. This often precipitates
mass displacement, injury, loss of essential healthcare access, and outbreaks of
water and vector-borne diseases, and economic losses (Roxy et al., 2017). The
Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) reports that Assam’s 2022
floods impacted 8.85 million people, with a decade-high 181 fatalities in the same
year. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) pertaining to natural disasters
and their related damage costs for the period 1990-2022 shows that India was
among the worst affected countries in the world. The data further suggests that
floods and storms featured as the top two natural disasters in India between the
same period and accounted for the highest share of damage costs at 63.10% and
31.52% respectively (Goldar et al., 2024).
(c) Poor Air Quality
In 2019, air pollution was associated with approximately 1.67 million deaths, with
ambient particulate matter acknowledged as a primary driver of both acute and
chronic respiratory illness, leading to 0.98 million deaths (Pandey et al., 2019).
Climate change is projected to increase this burden through longer pollen seasons,
increased ozone and allergen production, and synergistic effects of heat stress
and air quality. 35
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
II. Indirect Impacts
(a) Infectious Diseases
Climate change is expanding the spatial and temporal distribution of vector-borne
diseases such as malaria, dengue, and chikungunya (MoEFCC, 2023). Incidents of
malaria have been reported in the Himalayas, while dengue now spreads year-
round, with a 13% and 53% rise in transmission potential for Aedes aegypti and
Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, respectively (Lancet Countdown, 2024). Further,
the report states that coastal Vibrio pathogen risk has surged by 66%, threatening
23 million people.
The spread and persistence of these infections are compounded by the constraints
in vector control, fragmented surveillance systems, and changing human migration
patterns. The intertwined vulnerabilities of agricultural-dependent communities
reflect not only diminished food availability but also heightened exposure to
pathogens through compromised sanitation infrastructures.
(b) Food and water insecurity
Climate variability threatens progress in food safety and nutrition across India
(Basu et al., 2022). Altered rainfall and recurring droughts reduce crop yields
and lower food quality. This has the potential to increase malnutrition and food
insecurity among the socio-economically weaker households. Women and girls
experience additional vulnerability, unequal resource access, and pressure from
climate-related migration (M S Swaminathan Research Foundation, 2024). Further,
there is heightened risk of foodborne and waterborne diseases. Children may face
elevated rates of stunting, wasting, and micronutrient deficiencies.
(c) Mental Health and Psychosocial Wellbeing
The health burden of climate change extends to mental health and psychosocial
domains. Direct exposure to cyclones, floods, and heatwaves creates immediate
psychological trauma. Chronic stresses from environmental degradation, economic
insecurity, and displacement, fuel longer-term psychopathology, including anxiety,
depression, and trauma-related disorders. Among agricultural communities,
drought-driven losses have been associated with increased suicide rates.
(d) Health System Strain
The growing frequency and severity of climate events threaten the operational
resilience of India’s health infrastructure. Healthcare systems in more than 40%
of Indian districts are at high climate-induced risk (CEEW and UNICEF, 2025).
The report states that over 2,00,000 public healthcare facilities are vulnerable to
extreme climate events such as floods and cyclones. 36
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
(e) Displacement
Climate events are an increasingly important driver of internal migration. As per
the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC, 2025), between 2015 and
2024, ~32 million people in India were internally displaced due to natural disasters,
mostly floods and storms. In 2024, estimates suggest over 5 million people were
displaced by floods, droughts, and storms (IDMC, 2025). Migrants from coastal,
riverine, and drought-hit regions often lose access to public health entitlements
and community health programs as they move into peri-urban or city locations.
Children in migrant families experience disrupted vaccination schedules and
schooling, leading to cascading long-term disadvantages in health and well-being
(M S Swaminathan Research Foundation, 2024).
4.2 CURRENT POLICY LANDSCAPE
India’s approach to managing climate and health risks is underpinned by an evolving policy
framework and statutory mandates, supported by multisectoral missions and operational
protocols.
(a) National Action Plans and programmes
India’s legislative and policy architecture for climate adaptation and health is structured
around the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC), which mandates multi-
sectoral missions and integrates adaptation targets in water, agriculture, energy,
sustainable habitat, and human health. This vision is operationalised through State
Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCC), which require each state to assess local
vulnerabilities and delineate tailored interventions in line with national priorities.
A pivotal advancement is the creation and scaling-up of the National Programme on
Climate Change and Human Health (NPCCHH) under the Ministry of Health & Family
Welfare. NPCCHH establishes a national mandate for states to conduct district- and
population-specific health vulnerability assessments, integrate climate risks into public
health surveillance and planning, and develop cross-sectoral health adaptation strategies.
The programme prioritises gender sensitivity, social inclusion, and migration, and
issues specific technical guidance for climate-sensitive disease control, infrastructure
resilience, and capacity-building within state and district health systems.
As NPCCHH becomes embedded in practice, all states are now required to develop
dedicated State Action Plans on Climate Change and Human Health. This is to ensure
systematic and locally responsive integration of climate-health adaptation across
administrative levels and regions.
(b) Heat Action Plans and Multi-Hazard Early Warning
Heat Action Plans have been institutionalised in more than 20 states and over one
hundred cities. These plans legally codify the procedures for issuing graduated, colour-
coded public health alerts, with the India Meteorological Department responsible for
real-time forecasting. 37
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Under the Disaster Management Act, 2005, the National Disaster Management
Authority (NDMA) requires district and local agencies to maintain readiness through
mandatory drills and capacity-building. It utilises a Common Alerting Protocol (CAP)
based integrated system, known as Sachet, to trigger public health surge protocols
and disseminate real-time emergency warnings to the public.
Evidence suggests coordination across agencies remains uneven, with health surge
protocols needing better integration amid data silos. The Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan
is a success story where coordination challenges are overcome through combination
of measures (See Box-3).
Box-3: Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan
The Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan (HAP) stands as South Asia’s first comprehensive early
warning system for extreme heat, in 2013 following a lethal 2010 heatwave. The plan uses
a multi-tiered approach with color-coded alerts (Yellow, Orange, Red) based on IMD
forecasts and temperature thresholds. The IMD provides a 7-day forecast which informs
the activation of the plan. Beyond simple warnings, the plan integrates extensive public
outreach to vulnerable slum populations, healthcare training for treating heatstroke, and
infrastructure adaptations like the Cool Roofs Program, which uses reflective coatings to
lower indoor temperatures. It is credited with preventing over 1,100 deaths annually and
serving as a blueprint for dozens of cities across India to mitigate the rising threats of
climate change and urban heat islands (Azhar et al., 2014).
HAP has evolved into a global benchmark. It demonstrates the power of low-cost, scalable
interventions: early warning systems, inter-agency coordination, and public awareness
campaigns to save countless lives at minimal expense. Further, more importantly, its
approach shows that learning from past disasters, integrating scientific forecasts with
indigenous coping practices, and maintaining flexible, community-centered plans is key
to surviving a hotter future. Further, standardizing these behaviours into official action
plans makes them easier to scale and implement.
(c) Air Quality Governance and Clean Air Policy
India’s air quality management regime is structured around the National Clean Air
Programme (NCAP), launched in 2019. It requires the preparation and implementation
of city-level Clean Air Action Plans targeting PM10 reductions of up to 40% by 2026
from 2017 baselines. These plans include mandatory targets for particulate pollution
reduction, vehicle emission controls, industrial compliance, road dust mitigation, and
solid waste management. The opportunities for enhancement include prioritizing
PM2.5 alongside PM10, accelerating source apportionment studies, optimizing fund
allocation across sectors like industries and biomass, institute a formal process to
review and update every two years the list of cities classified as “non-attainment”
under NCAP, stricter emission standards, and airshed-based regional collaboration. 38
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
(d) Climate-Resilient Cooling and Infrastructure Codes
Sustainable cooling is institutionalised through the India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP),
which aims to provide sustainable cooling and thermal comfort for all by FY 2037-
38. The targets include reducing cooling demand, refrigerant demand, and cooling
energy requirements, alongside training of service technicians. The policy mandates
integration of passive cooling measures like enhanced insulation and natural ventilation,
in new public and health sector buildings, leveraging the Energy Conservation Building
Code. It prescribes technical standards for health system cold chains, including solar-
powered storage at 2-8°C for vaccines and supplies under the National Cold Chain
Management Programme, aligned with WHO guidelines.
(e) Agricultural Adaptation and Crop Residue Management
The National Mission on Sustainable Agriculture provides the policy anchor for climate-
smart agriculture, resource conservation, and organic and natural farming. State-level
regulatory approaches, including Sikkim’s legislation for organic certification and
targeted residue management protocols in Punjab and Haryana, have concretised
mission objectives in law and operational practice.
(f) Disaster Management and Health Facility Preparedness
India’s disaster preparedness framework is regulated through NDMA guidelines and
statutory provisions in the Disaster Management Act. Annual simulation exercises,
health and infrastructure resilience protocols, and capacity-building modules are
now routine requirements for health system preparedness. The India Meteorological
Department is mandated to provide seasonal and real-time impact forecasts, which
serve as operational triggers for activating district- and health sector response plans.
4.3 CHALLENGES AND SUGGESTIONS
1. Inconsistent Vulnerability Assessment and Surveillance
In India, existing district assessments, such as those by the Department of Science
and Technology, suggests the use of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth
Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) framework to address climate vulnerabilities. However,
this falls short of standardized, health-specific mandates across states. Methodological
inconsistencies, the use of disparate indicators, limited inclusion of social determinants
such as gender, and migration, and the absence of longitudinal monitoring or health-
outcome validation restrict the comparability and effectiveness of vulnerability mapping.
Suggestions
(a) There is a need to develop and mandate a single, robust vulnerability assessment
framework to establish a consistent national foundation for risk prioritisation. This
framework may incorporate internationally recognised risk frameworks (e.g., IPCC
AR5) customised to Indian district realities, under the leadership of NPCCHH,
ensuring standardisation across states.
(b) The standardised framework may be integrated into district-level surveillance
systems across the National Health Mission (NHM), Integrated Disease Surveillance 39
Health Equity and Wellbeing in India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Programme (IDSP), and NPCCHH modules. This integration can ensure digital
tracking of climate-sensitive diseases with mandatory gender, age, and migration
disaggregated reporting.
2. Lack of Climate-Resilient Health Infrastructure
Large segments of public health infrastructure lack climate-resilient design and
functionality, with significant deficits in backup power, reliable water and cooling,
elevated construction in flood-prone areas, and disruption preparedness.
India’s NPCCHH and NHM promote climate awareness and capacity-building in health
facilities, yet public health infrastructure standards do not yet mandate comprehensive
climate-proofing for high-risk districts, leaving gaps in retrofitting and real-time resilience
monitoring.
Suggestions:
(a) There is a need to urgently revise Indian Public Health Standards (IPHS) to include
mandatory climate-proofing specifications for all new and existing facilities
in high-risk districts. These specifications may address backup power, water
security, cooling systems, and elevated designs in flood-prone areas, building on
NPCCHH’s foundational guidelines.
(b) A real-time climate resilience monitoring system may be integrated with Integrated
Disease Surveillance Programme (IDSP) and NHM to track infrastructure readiness
and service continuity metrics. This will further ensure that NPCCHH can effectively
safeguard healthcare functionality during extreme weather events.
3. Unprepared Health Workforce
Frontline healthcare personnel lack routine training in climate-health risks, emergency
protocols, and gender- or migration-sensitive outreach, undermining preparedness in
high-burden districts.
Suggestions:
(a) Mainstream climate–health and emergency preparedness modules across
accredited medical and public health curricula, complemented by periodic
refresher training and mandatory preparedness drills for in-service health workers
and facility managers. These drills may be institutionalised as a routine operational
requirement and linked to annual IPHS accreditation, shifting NPCCHH capacity-
building from awareness to action-oriented preparedness.
4. Financing Not Aligned to Climate Risk
India’s NPCCHH and NHM support climate awareness and infrastructure resilience, yet
health and adaptation budgets lack vulnerability-based allocation formulas.
Suggestions:]
(a) Use earmarked NHM funding as a catalytic lever to blend multilateral and
philanthropic finance and crowd in larger-scale investment for climate-resilient
health infrastructure while linking allocations to performance-based monitoring
and measurable resilience outcomes.
(b) Targeted climate-health insurance pilots may be launched for low-income,
disaster-prone populations leveraging NHM administrative networks. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition BEHAVIOURAL INSIGHTS
FOR INDIA’S NET ZERO
TRANSITION
5 42Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
This section focuses on why behavioural insights are critical to achieving India’s long-term
Net Zero transition. It first outlines key programmatic interventions undertaken by the
Government of India, followed by an examination of sector-specific behavioural challenges
and targeted, actionable suggestions. The section emphasises the need to integrate
behavioural insights into broader climate and energy policy frameworks, highlighting how
policy design must balance individual autonomy with collective action to deliver durable
emissions reductions.
Accelerating climate impacts in India are coinciding with rapid economic growth and
urbanisation, driving up energy demand and emissions in ways that cannot be addressed
by technological solutions alone. The year 2024 was the hottest ever recorded globally,
with several Indian states experiencing sustained temperatures above 40°C (Mohan, 2025).
Beyond immediate health risks, extreme heat carries substantial economic consequences:
recent estimates suggest that heat stress could reduce India’s GDP by up to 4.5% by 2030,
reflecting losses in labour productivity, rising cooling demand, and mounting stress on
energy systems (Prabhu et al., 2025).
These climate pressures intersect with profound shifts in consumption patterns. Ownership
of air conditioners owing to climate change and comfort has doubled in the last 4 years
reaching 15 million by 2025 (Gokhale, 2025). Same is the case with other household
appliances and private vehicles which have recorded strong growth.
This growth is occurring alongside continued urbanisation, with the urban population
projected to reach nearly 65% by 2070. India’s sustained nominal dollar GDP growth of 8%
(1993-2025) has expanded middle-class aspirations for comfort, mobility, and convenience.
Although per capita electricity consumption remains below the global average, it is projected
to increase 4-5 times by 2050 (refer to Sectoral Insights: Power - Vol 7 report), driven by
economy-wide electrification and rising demand from cooling, transport, and appliances.
Regional disparities further complicate this trajectory: northern regions import significantly
more power during peak summer months to meet cooling needs, while rural areas face the
dual challenge of expanding energy access without entrenching unsustainable consumption
patterns.
Taken together, these trends highlight a critical reality-India’s energy transition is increasingly
shaped by how energy is demanded and used, not only by how it is produced. Rising
consumption linked to cooling, mobility, and appliances reflects everyday behavioural
choices that aggregate into system-level impacts. As a result, supply-side expansion and
efficiency improvements, while essential, are unlikely on their own to deliver the scale or
persistence of emissions reductions required.
5
Behavioural Insights
for India’s Net Zero
Transition 43
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
India’s progress in deploying clean energy technologies and improving energy efficiency
remains both necessary and significant. However, the effectiveness of these technological
investments ultimately depends on behavioural responses on how households and
firms adopt new technologies, adjust consumption patterns, and interact with evolving
infrastructure. Behavioural barriers such as sensitivity to upfront costs, scepticism toward
unfamiliar technologies, prevailing social norms, and entrenched habits frequently slow
adoption or weaken impact. Moreover, rebound effects can erode efficiency gains when
lower operating costs lead to increased usage. Embedding behavioural insights into policy
design can therefore amplify the effectiveness of technological interventions by shaping
demand, guiding choices, and sustaining low-carbon practices over time.
5.1 GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES
India has behaviour-centric schemes, which operationalise nudges through subtle cues
leveraging social norms, defaults, and peer dynamics to foster mindful consumption and
collective responsibility for sustainable development. These initiatives underpin the goals
of Viksit Bharat@2047 and Net Zero emissions by 2070, transforming policy goals into
scalable voluntary habits via emotional appeals, choice architecture, and real-time feedback.
From Swachh Bharat Abhiyan’s sanitation revolution to UJALA’s LED penetration and Jal
Jeevan Mission’s water security, they establish blueprints amplified by Mission LiFE’s national
architecture of targeted interventions across flagship programmes.
The Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, serves as the foundational behavioural template exemplifying
effective behavioural intervention at scale (UNICEF, 2020). By leveraging social proofing
and emotional appeal, the mission transitioned sanitation from a government mandate
into a “people’s movement” driven by community ownership. It effectively utilized choice
architecture and dignity-focused nudges to transform deep-seated habits, establishing a
scalable blueprint.
The Bureau of Energy Efficiency’s star labelling programme provides a core energy nudge
through prominent star ratings displayed on appliances, acting as a visual shorthand that
reduces decision complexity for consumers at the point of purchase. By translating technical
efficiency information into an intuitive rating scale, the programme enables households
to factor long term electricity costs into upfront buying decisions. According to the India
Energy Scenario for the Year 2023-24 report, BEE’s energy efficiency interventions delivered
electricity savings of over 320 billion units and avoided more than 320 million tonnes
of carbon dioxide emissions in that year, with the Standards and Labelling programme
constituting a significant contributor.
Complementing this, the Ministry of Power’s initiative to set default air conditioner
temperatures at 24˚C establishes energy efficient behaviour as the path of least resistance.
While users retain full control to modify settings, the default embeds conservation as the
effortless norm, reinforcing efficiency gains achieved through appliance standards and
consumer information. Together, these measures demonstrate how well-designed institutional
nudges can mainstream energy conservation by shaping everyday consumption choices
while delivering measurable national scale energy and emissions savings.
In 2015, the Government of India introduced the UJALA scheme, successfully distributing
over 36.87 crore LED bulbs as of early 2025 to over 9.2 crore households through a “demand 44
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
aggregation” model that reduced retail prices by nearly 90% (Ministry of Power, 2025). This
multi-channel nudge strategy featured kiosks highlighting bill savings, door-to-door swaps,
social proof messaging (“neighbours switching to LEDs”), and celebrity endorsements
normalising thrift.
Building on these principles, the Jal Jeevan Mission, launched in 2019, places nudges at the
core of its water security strategy by providing functional tap connections to over 15.72
crore (81%) rural households as of late 2025 (Ministry of Jal Shakti, 2025). It fosters a Jan
Andolan (people’s movement) through community-led monitoring by village Jal Saakhis,
hands-on chaupal demonstrations of conservation techniques, real-time peer-comparison
dashboards on usage patterns prompting voluntary rationing, and Pani Samitis enforcing
social accountability via village-level water budgets and rainwater harvesting competitions.
The GiveItUp campaign mobilised voluntary LPG subsidy relinquishment among affluent
households through emotional appeals tied to national service, public leaderboards creating
bandwagon effects, and patriotic messaging that redistributed resources equitably (GiveItUp
Campaign, 2015). PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana exemplifies procedural simplification with
a single-window digital portal that slashes adoption hurdles, paired with “Apna Bijli, Apne
Ghar” framing that taps pride in self-reliance to overcome rooftop solar inertia.
Community-level initiatives like the National Energy Conservation Awards and Gram Urja
Swaraj Abhiyaan amplify social proof by spotlighting local champions such as farmers
with solar pumps or energy-efficient panchayats, fostering emulation within peer networks
(Bureau of Energy Efficiency, 2025; Panchayati Raj Institutions, 2022). Meanwhile, the Smart
Meter National Programme delivers real-time usage feedback alongside neighbourhood
benchmarks, turning abstract consumption data into immediate, actionable insights that
prompt household-level self-correction (Economic Times EnergyWorld, 2024).
India launched Mission LiFE in 2022 as its largest-ever behavioural intervention, creating
a comprehensive national architecture that unifies sectoral behaviour change initiatives
into a coordinated system. Recently, the nodal ministry MoEFCC created a compendium
that recommends embedding targeted nudges into flagship programmes for mass-scale
behavioural change (Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, 2025). The
strategy targets 80% of villages and urban local bodies achieving LiFE compliance by
2028 and one billion global pledges through voluntary adoption. For instance, under the
Jal Jeevan Mission, it is proposed to establish village-level water usage dashboards and
focus on RO reject water reuse campaigns. The Mid-Day Meals programme is suggested
to adopt millet-based menu defaults with integrated nutrition education for 12 crore
schoolchildren. For AMRUT, the suggestions include SHG-led water quality testing, “Drink
from Tap” awareness drives, and waste segregation incentive systems across 4,000 cities.
Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) programme is suggested to include farmer
irrigation audits promoting “More Crop Per Drop” efficiency. Indian Railways is envisioned
to consider station-wise waste management rankings and single-use plastic bans at 7,000
stations. Further, the Ujjwala scheme is suggested to explore SMS and app-based LPG refill
reminders for 10 crore beneficiary households.
Beyond scheme-level interventions, the compendium further recommends policy measures to
standardise behaviour change across government institutions. Corporate Social Responsibility
(CSR) guidelines can prioritise LiFE-aligned projects in waste reduction, energy efficiency,
and sustainable agriculture. Blue and Green Star Ratings are suggested to certify water and 45
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
energy-efficient restaurants and hotels, guiding consumer preferences. Further, adoptions
of green procurement standards are suggested across government institutions. Finally, the
Meri LiFE portal is suggested to facilitate real-time tracking via competitive individual and
village leaderboards, with data aggregation drawing from participating ministries’ scheme
implementations. It is suggested that sustainability metrics be integrated into existing
monitoring and evaluation frameworks.
Together, these interventions showcase India’s evolving behavioural policy ecosystem, where
nudges harness social norms, defaults, and peer dynamics to complement regulatory and
fiscal tools. This approach not only scales voluntary sustainable actions across diverse
populations but also ensures equitable transitions, embedding mindful resource use as a
cultural cornerstone for development.
5.2 CHALLENGES AND SUGGESTIONS
India’s energy transition demands a comprehensive approach addressing both supply and
demand dimensions alongside systemic behavioural barriers. This section examines specific
challenges in implementing behavioural interventions across demand sectors like transport,
buildings, industry, agriculture, and supply considerations, and cross-cutting systemic issues.
Each challenge is paired with targeted suggestions that focus specifically on behavioural
nudges informed by India’s Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy and Mission
LiFE principles.
1. Entrenched Travel Habits and Status-Driven Vehicle Ownership
The transport sector faces deeply embedded behavioural barriers to modal shift.
Personal vehicles remain symbols of status and autonomy, while public transport is
associated with inconvenience and lower social standing. Commuters exhibit strong
habitual preference for private vehicles, reinforced by social norms that equate car
ownership with economic success. Electric vehicle adoption encounters behavioural
obstacles including range anxiety, technology scepticism, and reluctance to change
established routines despite improving performance metrics and government incentives.
Suggestions:
(a) Leverage visible community leadership and peer endorsements through
campaigns showcasing respected community members, technology executives,
and public officials using public transport regularly. The Personal2Public campaign
in Bengaluru demonstrated how Ministers and corporate leaders taking metro
services twice weekly catalysed a broader modal shift, creating social proof that
sustainable transport choices are compatible with professional success (The
Hindu, 2024).
(b) Address misconceptions through targeted testimonial campaigns featuring peer
experiences to counter scepticism about public transport reliability and EV
performance. Focus messaging on addressing specific concerns like comfort,
safety, time efficiency rather than generic environmental appeals.
(c) Integrate behavioural nudges in digital platforms by designing ticketing applications
with default options favouring sustainable modes. Mobility apps could display 46
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
public transport options first, require additional clicks to access private vehicle
alternatives, and show comparative journey times with externalities factored in.
The broader suggestions are further discussed in the Report on Sectoral Insights: Transport
(Vol. 3).
2. Behavioural Inertia and Information Gaps in the Building sector
Building occupants and owners display pronounced inertia in adopting energy-
efficient practices due to established habits, unclear information, high upfront cost, and
perceived inconvenience. The split incentive problem compounds behavioural barriers,
particularly in rental settings where efficiency investment costs fall on landlords while
energy savings accrue to tenants.
At the same time, efficiency improvements can generate rebound effects consistent
with the Jevons Paradox. As appliances and buildings become more energy-efficient
and affordable, households may increase usage intensity or shift toward larger or more
energy-intensive options, partially offsetting expected energy savings. Moral licensing
further weakens outcomes, as individuals who adopt one pro-environmental behaviour
may feel justified in engaging in less sustainable practices elsewhere.
Suggestions:
(a) Enable transparent energy performance disclosure through BEE Star Ratings
or other suitable indicators to empower market participants with energy cost
and efficiency information. These disclosures create market signals by making
efficiency costs salient to prospective buyers and tenants.
(b) Deploy personalised efficiency nudges using smart building systems to deliver
contextualised reminders prompting energy-saving actions, adjusting thermostat
settings (proposed target of 24 degrees as default option), switching off unused
equipment, optimising natural lighting. Promoting the use of Time-of-Day tariffs
can also incentivize the efficient energy use.
(c) Introduce green defaults in affluent contexts by implementing automatic opt-in
for low-carbon building materials. Given income disparities, careful calibration is
required, with initial focus on higher-income segments before broader deployment.
(d) Efficiency programmes should be paired with consumption-awareness messaging
that highlights appropriate usage norms and the cumulative impact of individual
consumption choices to address rebound and moral licensing effects. Messaging should
move beyond single-technology efficiency to address overall energy demand patterns.
The broader suggestions are further discussed in the Reports on - Sectoral Insights:
Buildings (Vol. 5) and Power (Vol. 7).
3. Weak Behavioural Signals for Sustainable Procurement in Industry
Hard-to-abate sectors including steel and cement lack strong behavioural cues for
low-carbon choices. Procurement decisions prioritise cost over carbon intensity, with
social and reputational factors playing minimal roles. Absence of standardised carbon
footprint labelling makes informed low-carbon choices difficult for procurement. 47
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Suggestions:
(a) Deploy standardised Product Carbon Footprint (PCF) labelling with clear,
comparable carbon labels on industrial end-use products, especially targeting
emission-intensive materials like cement, steel, aluminium, textiles and chemicals.
Focus initially on business-to-business contexts such as procurement portals and
construction tenders, where label visibility enables comparison and promotes
informed low-carbon choices.
(b) Expand recognition and benchmarking platforms by creating detailed, sector-
specific carbon intensity benchmarks (currently being undertaken under Carbon
Credit Trading Scheme for select sectors). Enhance peer comparison tools with
features such as gamification and public recognition to boost industry engagement.
(c) Facilitate voluntary public pledges through commitment frameworks (Science
Based Target initiative- SBTi, RE100) enabling industries to publicly pledge
specific carbon reduction targets, creating accountability through stakeholder
scrutiny and competitive pressures.
4. Risk Aversion and Limited Social Proof in Agriculture
Farmers exhibit behavioural reluctance toward climate-smart practices due to risk
aversion, limited exposure to successful implementations, and entrenched traditional
methods. Social proof and trusted networks significantly influence agricultural decisions,
yet visible demonstrations of climate-smart benefits remain scarce.
Suggestions:
(a) Design bundled discounts on climate-smart packages to facilitate uptake of
efficient agricultural practices (Drip and Sprinkle, use of drones etc) by offering
them as single packages through cooperatives or government schemes. Bundling
reduces decision fatigue while improving affordability.
(b) Encourage and recognise public commitments by creating structured platforms
via farmer producer organisations, gram sabhas, or digital pledges for farmers,
especially women-led groups, to publicly commit to climate-resilient practices. The
JEEViKA programme in Bihar exemplifies how women self-help groups can champion
clean energy adoption through social networks. This has included facilitating
access to solar lighting and cooking technologies, training local entrepreneurs and
technicians, and creating livelihood opportunities linked to clean energy supply
chains. The programme has leveraged its extensive SHG network to promote clean
energy use and improve livelihoods, demonstrating the effectiveness of women-led
groups as catalysts for sustainable energy adoption in rural areas.
(c) Enable farmer-led demonstration plots (Agri-PV) to establish visible success
stories within specific agro-climatic contexts, using peer educators and local
agricultural leaders to communicate benefits through trusted relationships.
5. Limited Consumer Engagement and Awareness of Impact in the Electricity sector
In the National Smart Grid Mission, consumer engagement with demand response and
efficiency measures remains inadequate. Households and businesses underestimate
their capacity to influence consumption patterns, leading to behavioural inertia. The
complexity of energy systems obscures connections between individual actions an d
broader environmental impacts. 48
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Suggestions:
(a) Deploy comparative energy reports with neighbourhood baselines through monthly
household reports comparing consumption against neighbourhood averages. The
VidyutRakshaka intervention in Bengaluru achieved 7% reduction in average monthly
consumption across 2,000 participating households, savings equivalent to avoiding
604 million kilowatt hours annually if scaled citywide (Malaviya, et al. 2019).
(b) Create smart meter feedback loops providing real-time usage insights via mobile
applications, including personalised tips and alerts when consumption spikes.
Real-time feedback empowers users to self-correct and build energy-conscious
habits more effectively than delayed monthly bills.
(c) Implement default green appliance scheduling by automatically setting smart
appliances to operate during periods of high renewable energy availability, making
sustainable energy use the effortless default choice for consumers.
(d) Highlight collective achievements to foster sense of community impact by
communicating aggregate community savings in concrete terms, tonnes of CO ₂
avoided, equivalent households powered. Messages emphasising community
achievement prove more motivating than individual impact statistics.
6. Weak Implementation Architecture and Limited Scalability
Mission LiFE’s implementation architecture is not yet aligned with the social realities
required for large-scale behavioural transformation. Progress toward mobilising one
billion citizens by 2028 remains difficult to assess. There is a need for clear metrics,
accountability mechanisms, and outcome-oriented monitoring systems. Equity concerns
are often structural rather than incidental: many promoted behaviours reflect middle-
and upper-income consumption norms, while low-income households face material
constraints, social risks, and limited decision-making power that shape what behaviours
are feasible or desirable.
These limitations are evident in energy-use practices that remain deeply embedded in
cultural meanings and social identities. For instance, the continued use of traditional
cooking methods despite LPG availability illustrates how taste preferences, ritual
significance, and identity can override economic incentives and technological access. Such
dynamics highlight the inadequacy of behaviour-change strategies that focus narrowly
on information provision without engaging underlying social norms and power relations.
These challenges are further compounded by weak systems for learning and adaptation.
Behavioural interventions under Mission LiFE need to be supported by baseline data,
control groups, or longitudinal tracking. This will enable to distinguish symbolic
participation from sustained behavioural change.
Suggestions:
(a) Mainstream Mission LiFE across government programmes: Integrate Mission
LiFE principles into existing government schemes by aligning policy objectives,
institutional responsibilities, and funding mechanisms. Embedding behavioural
nudges within housing, energy, transport, water, agriculture, and livelihoods
programmes will enable scale and durability, avoiding treatment of Mission LiFE as 49
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
a standalone or peripheral initiative. The proposed interventions should recognise
women’s central role in household energy use while addressing constraints on
their decision-making authority.
(b) Institutionalise outcome-oriented monitoring and evaluation: Establish a dedicated
Mission LiFE monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework with clearly defined
measurable behavioural indicators across sectors. This framework should track
adoption, persistence, spillovers, and distributional impacts, and be implemented
in partnership with research institutions using experimental and quasi-
experimental methods. Behavioural indicators should complement conventional
energy, emissions, and environmental metrics to capture full programme impact.
(c) Promote baseline data collection, appropriate control or comparison groups, and
longitudinal tracking as minimum requirements for behavioural interventions.
Develop standardised yet flexible evaluation protocols that can be adapted
to diverse regional and sectoral contexts. Establish a national repository of
behavioural intervention evaluations to document both successes and failures
and enable systematic evidence synthesis.
(d) Leverage social norms, leadership, and collective influence: Systematically engage
trusted community leaders, influencers, and early adopters as advocates for
sustainable behaviours. Experience from Swachh Bharat Abhiyan demonstrates
how public commitments, visibility, and role modelling can shift social norms and
accelerate behaviour change at scale.
(e) Facilitate peer learning networks such as farmer-to-farmer extension programmes,
community energy champions, and neighbourhood sustainability groups. These
networks reduce social risk, provide practical knowledge, and create social
support systems that sustain behavioural change over time.
Strengthen inter-ministerial and centre–state coordination: Create an inter-ministerial
coordination mechanism to review progress and ensure policy coherence. The
demand, supply, and cross-cutting behavioural interventions articulated above
exemplify how behavioural insights serve as vital complements to technological and
infrastructure measures in India’s pathway towards sustainable energy. Pivotal to their
success is an astute understanding of diverse local contexts, equity considerations,
and a clear distinction between voluntary nudges, which preserve individual choice,
and structural mandates, which may restrict it.
Strengthening the implementation of Mission LiFE, systematically addressing
societal resistance, mitigating rebound effects associated with efficiency gains, and
establishing robust frameworks for monitoring and evaluation will be essential in
scaling effective behavioural strategies. Such foundational efforts will enable India to
achieve a resilient, inclusive energy transition that aligns with development aspirations
and climate commitments alike. 51
Behavioural Insights for India’s Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
1
ANNEXURES 52Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Land-use factor (Acres per MW)
2030 20502070
Coal Power Plant0.800.800.80
Gas Power Plant0.120.120.12
Nuclear Power Plant0.600.600.60
Large Hydro Power Plant4.994.994.99
Solar PV Plant2.971.981.98
On-shore wind Power Plant3.463.463.46
Biomass Power Plant5.985.985.98
Annexure A:
Land Use Factor 53Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Water-Use Factor
Coal Power Plant (MCM/Mtoe)40.64685
Gas Power Plant (MCM/Mtoe)14.3049
Nuclear Power Plant (MCM/Mtoe)44.4266
Green Hydrogen Plant (litre/kgH2 or MCM/Mt)25
Annexure B:
Water Use Factor 54Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
NIC
code
ASUSE
Code
Formal
workers
Informal
workers
13 M5 Textiles17,22,67234,10,714
17 M9 Paper and Pulp3,50,482 2,77,547
23 M15 Non-metallic minerals (including Cement)10,49,39926,08,269
24 M16 Basic metals (including Steel, Aluminium)14,11,5772,73,300
19 M11 Petroleum Products1,68,852 50,701
20 M12 Chemical products (including fertilizers)10,58,217 1,75,616
29 M21 Manufacturing of Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers12,64,272 63,237
45
T1
Wholesale and retail trade of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
7,10,533
T2
Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
23,48,172
Total70,25,47199,18,089
Annexure C:
Employment in Fossil-
Fuel Linked Manufacturing
Industries 55
Annexure C:Employment in Fossil-Fuel Linked Manufacturing Industries Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
REFERENCES 56Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
References
1. Adil, L., Eckstein, D., Künzel, V., & Schäfer, L. (2025). Climate Risk Index 2026: Who
suffers most from extreme weather events? Germanwatch. https://www.germanwatch.
org/en/93310
2. Annual survey of industries 2022-2023: Volume I. (2024). Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation, National Statistics Office. https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/
default/files/publication_reports/ASI/ASI%202022-23%20Volume%20I-compressed.
3. Annual survey of unincorporated sector enterprises (ASUSE) 2022-23 (October 2022–
September 2023). (2024). National Sample Survey Office, Ministry of Statistics and
Programme Implementation, Government of India. https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/
default/files/publication_reports/ASUSE_2022_23_Report_FinalN.pdf
4. Asian Development Bank. (2024). Profitable ecosystem restoration: A pilot in the
Kubuqi Desert. https://rksi.adb.org/publications/profitable-ecosystem-restoration-a-
pilot-in-the-kubuqi-desert/
5. Assam State Disaster Management Authority. Assam Flood Report 2022. Guwahati:
ASDMA; 2022
6. Azhar, G. S., Mavalankar, D., Nori-Sarma, A., Rajiva, A., Dutta, P., Jaiswal, A., Sheffield,
P., Knowlton, K., & Hess, J. J. (2014). Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause
Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave. PLOS ONE, 9(3), e91831.
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0091831
7. Balakrishnan, K., Dey, S., Gupta, T., Dhaliwal, R. S., Brauer, M., Cohen, A. J., Stanaway,
J. D., Beig, G., Joshi, T. K., Aggarwal, A. N., Sabde, Y. D., Sadhu, H. G., Frostad, J.,
Causey, K., Godwin, W., Shukla, D. K., Kumar, G. A., Varghese, C. M., Muraleedharan, P.,
… Murray, C. J. L. (2021). The impact of air pollution on deaths, disease burden, and life
expectancy across the states of India: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The
Lancet Planetary Health, 5(1), e25–e38. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9
8. Basu, R., Banerjee, T., & Roy, S. (2022). Impact of climate change on water availability,
food insecurity, and malnutrition in India: A systematic review. Food Policy, 103, https://
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266604902500009X
9. Bhushan, C. and Banerjee, S. 2021. Five R’s: A Cross-sectoral landscape of Just
Transition in India, International Forum for Environment, Sustainability and Technology
(iFOREST), New Delhi 57
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
10. Bureau of Energy Efficiency. (2024). India energy scenario: For the year 2023–24 (2nd
ed.). Ministry of Power, Government of India. https://beeindia.gov.in/sites/default/files/
BEE_India_Energy_Scenario_Report-2024_web_version-rev2.pdf
11. Bureau of Energy Efficiency. (2025, December 21). BEE introduces new category for
National Energy Conservation Awards 2025. Electrical India. https://www.electricalindia.
in/bee-introduces-new-category-for-national-energy-conservation-awards-2025/
12. CEEW and UNICEF. 2025. How Can India Make its Health Sector Climate Resilient? A
District-level Risk Assessment. New Delhi, India: Council on Energy, Environment and
Water. https://www.ceew.in/sites/default/files/ceewhow-can-india-make-its-health-
sector-climate-resilient20mar25-for-web.pdf
13. Central Ground Water Board. (2025). National compilation on Dynamic Groundwater
resources of India https://cgwb.gov.in/cgwbpnm/download/1741#page=171
14. Central Pollution Control Board. (2025). Polluted river stretches for restoration of
water quality – 2025. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Government
of India.https://nmcg.nic.in/pdf/POLLUTED%20RIVER%20STRETCHES%20FOR%20
RESTORATION%20OF%20WATER%20QUALITY.pdf
15. Central Water Commission. (2023). Flood management in India: A statistical report
2023. Government of India.https://cwc.gov.in/sites/default/files/flood-management-
india-statistical-report-2023.pdf
16. Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. (2025). Tracing the hazy air 2025. https://
energyandcleanair.org/publication/tracing-the-hazy-air-2025/
17. Concessao, L., Meenawat, H., Ginoya, N., Hazarika, M., Sahay, V., & Gupta, D. K. (2023).
A spoonful of solar to help the medicine go down: Exploring synergies between
health care and energy. WRI India. https://wri-india.org/sites/default/files/23_REP_
Spoonful%20Solar_web.pdf
18. Department of Land Resources & National Remote Sensing Centre. (2019). Wastelands
atlas of India 2019. Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India. https://dolr.
gov.in/wasteland-atlas-of-india-2019/
19. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare.
(2024). Land use statistics at a glance 2022-23. https://desagri.gov.in/wp-content/
uploads/2024/09/Final-file-of-LUS-2022-23-for-uploading.pdf
20. Eberhard, A., & Naudé, R. (2017). The South African renewable energy IPP procurement
programme. University of Cape Town Graduate School of Business. https://www.gsb.
uct.ac.za/files/EberhardNaude_REIPPPPReview_2017_1_1.pdf
21. Economic Times EnergyWorld. (2024, March 28). India’s Smart Meter Programme to
enable Rs 1.5 lakh cr investment in prepaid smart meters. https://energy.economictimes.
indiatimes.com/news/power/indias-smart-meter-programme-to-invest-rs-1-5-lakh-cr-
for-prepaid-smart-meters/108848405
22. Federal Government of Germany. (2020). Act on structural support for coal regions
(Structural Development Act – StrSG). https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/
service/archive/kohleregionen-foerderung-1665150 58
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
23. Ganesh Pandey, Sarah Lyden, Evan Franklin, Benjamin Millar, Matthew Tom Harrison,
A systematic review of agrivoltaics: productivity, profitability, and environmental co-
benefits, Sustainable Production and Consumption, Volume 56, 2025, Pages 13-36,
ISSN 2352-5509, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2025.03.006
24. Genchi G, Carocci A, Lauria G, Sinicropi MS, Catalano A. Nickel: Human Health and
Environmental Toxicology. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Jan 21;17(3):679. doi:
10.3390/ijerph17030679 PMCID: PMC7037090 PMID: 31973020
25. Gokhale, S. (2025, January 25). Demand for air-conditioners doubles in four years to 15
million units owing to climate change, comfort. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/
business/Industry/demand-for-air-conditioners-doubles-in-four-years-to-15-million-
units-owing-to-climate-change-comfort/article69246573.ece
26. Goldar, A., Jain, S., & Dasgupta, D. (2024). Estimating loss and damage from climate-
induced disasters: An Evaluation using ICRIER ‘Prakriti’ Model (Working Paper No.
422). Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER). https://
icrier.org/pdf/Working_Paper_422.pdf
27. Greenmatch. (2024, July 15). Is lithium mining bad for the environment? https://www.
greenmatch.co.uk/blog/is-lithium-mining-bad-for-the-environment
28. Gupta, Uma, “56% solar installations in water-scarce areas: Bridge To India”, PV
Magazine, 20 June 2019, https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2019/06/20/56-solar-
installations-in-water-scarce-areas-bridge-toindia/
29. Hess JJ, Lm S, Knowlton K, Saha S, Dutta P, Ganguly P, Tiwari A, Jaiswal A, Sheffield
P, Sarkar J, Bhan SC, Begda A, Shah T, Solanki B, Mavalankar D. Building Resilience
to Climate Change: Pilot Evaluation of the Impact of India’s First Heat Action
Plan on All-Cause Mortality. J Environ Public Health. 2018 Nov 1;2018:7973519. doi:
10.1155/2018/7973519 PMID: 30515228; PMCID: PMC6236972
30. Huawei Digital Power. (2023). Solar Panels Revitalize the Flora and Life in the Kubuqi
Desert. Huawei Case Studies. https://digitalpower.huawei.com/en/cases/fusionsolar/
solar-panels-in-the-kubuqi-desert
31. IDMC, Countdown to 2030: Achieving global targets on disaster displacement, June
2025. https://doi.org/10.55363/IDMC. BYHP3738
32. India’s power sector - capacity & generation mix. (2024). ICED, NITI Aayog. https://
iced.niti.gov.in/energy/electricity/generation
33. Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. (2025, April). POWERup 1Q
2025: Installed capacity, generation and investment. https://ieefa.org/sites/default/
files/2025-04/POWERup%201Q%202025.pdf
34. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate Change 2022 – Impacts,
Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press;
2023.
35. International Energy Agency. (2021). India energy outlook 2021. IEA. https://www.iea.
org/reports/india-energy-outlook-2021 59
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
36. International Energy Agency. (2024). World energy employment 2024. https://
iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a0432c97-14af-4fc7-b3bf-c409fb7e4ab8/
WorldEnergyEmployment.pdf
37. IRENA and Bluerisk (2023), Water for hydrogen production, International Renewable
Energy Agency, Bluerisk, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
38. K. N. Shivaprakash. (2022, August 17). Degraded lands can aid achieve four times
India’s 2030 renewable energy targets. The Nature Conservancy India. https://www.
tncindia.in/what-we-do/our-insights/stories-in-india/renewableenergy/
39. Knowlton, K., Kulkarni, S. P., Azhar, G. S., Mavalankar, D., Jaiswal, A., Connolly, M., Nori-
Sarma, A., Rajiva, A., Dutta, P., Deol, B., Sanchez, L., Khosla, R., Webster, P. J., Toma, V.
E., Sheffield, P., Hess, J. J., & The Ahmedabad Heat and Climate Study Group. (2014).
Development and Implementation of South Asia’s First Heat-Health Action Plan in
Ahmedabad (Gujarat, India). International Journal of Environmental Research and
Public Health, 11(4), 3473-3492. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110403473
40. Lancet Countdown. (2024). 2024 climate and health policy priorities for India [Policy
priorities report]. https://lancetcountdown.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Lancet-
Countdown-2024_India Policy-Priorities.pdf
41. Madhusudan, M. D., & Vanak, A. T. (2023). Mapping the distribution and extent of
India’s semi-arid open natural ecosystems. Journal of Biogeography, 50(8), 1377–1389.
https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14471
42. Malaviya, Sumedha, Krishnan, Cibi, Santhosh Sumathy, Kajol, and Shreya, Deepak
Nath. 2019. Assessing clean energy opportunities through demand aggregation in
Bengaluru’s apartment buildings. Working Paper, Washington DC: World Resources
Institute. https://www.wri.org/research/assessing-clean-energy-opportunities-through-
demand-aggregation-bengalurus-apartment.
43. Mazumdar R, and Malik H. Reassessment of Solar Potential in India: A Macro-level
Study. New Delhi: The Energy and Resources Institute
44. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change. (2023). India’s national action plan
(NAP) to combat desertification and land degradation through forestry interventions.
https://moef.gov.in/uploads/2023/07/NAP%20final-2023.pdf
45. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change. (2025, February). Supporting
institutional knowledge development and capacity building for planning of innovative
and sustainable projects and programs - Mainstreaming Mission LiFE: Part 1. Government
of India.
46. Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC). India: Third National
Communication and Initial Adaptation Communication to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. New Delhi: Government of India; 2023.
47. Ministry of New & Renewable Energy. (2025). Renewable energy statistics 2024-25. Gov-
ernment of India. https://cdnbbsr.s3waas.gov.in/s3716e1b8c6cd17b771da77391355749f3/
uploads/2025/11/202511061627678782.pdf 60
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
48. Ministry of Panchayati Raj. (2022, December 23). Year-end review - 2022: Ministry
of Panchayati Raj [Press release]. Press Information Bureau. https://www.pib.gov.in/
PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1885885®=3&lang=2
49. Ministry of Power, Government of India. (2025, January 6). UJALA: 10 years of energy-
efficient lighting [Press release]. Press Information Bureau. https://www.pib.gov.in/
PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2090639
50. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. (2023). Migration in India 2020–
21. https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/publication_reports/Migration%20in%20
India%20RL16082023.pdf
51. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. (2024). Annual report: Periodic
Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2023-24. https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/
press_release/Press_note_AR_PLFS_2023_24_22092024.pdf
52. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. (2024). Annual report: Periodic
Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2023-24. https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/
publication_reports/AnnualReport_PLFS2023-24L2.pdf
53. Mitra, S., & Chandra, R. (2023). Deep de-carbonization and regional equity: The fiscal
consequences of India’s electricity transition (Working Paper No. 402). National Institute
of Public Finance and Policy. https://nipfp.org.in/media/documents/WP_402_2023.pdf
54. Mohanty, A., & Wadhawan, S. (2021). Mapping India’s climate vulnerability: A district level
assessment (Climate Vulnerability Index). Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
https://www.ceew.in/sites/default/files/ceew-study-on-climate-change-vulnerability-
index-and-district-level-risk-assessment.pdf
55. Mohan, V. (2025, January 1). 2024 was India’s hottest year since records began in 1901.
The Times of India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/2024-was-indias-hottest-
year-since-records-began-in-1901/articleshow/116867730.cms
56. MoHUA. (2014). Urban greening guidelines, 2014. Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs,
Town and Country Planning Organisation. https://mohua.gov.in/upload/uploadfiles/
files/G%20G%202014(2).pdf
57. MoHUA. (2021). Smart cities mission: Urban greening guidelines. Ministry of Housing
and Urban Affairs, Government of India. https://smartcities.gov.in/upload/uploadfiles/
files/Greening_Guidelines.pdf
58. Mondragon Assembly. (2024, June 4). New study shows India has 207 GW of floating
solar potential. https://www.mondragon-assembly.com/new-study-shows-india-has-
207-gw-of-floating-solar-potential/
59. MSSRF., (2024). How does climate change impact women and children across agro-
ecological zones in India: A scoping study. M S Swaminathan Research Foundation.
https://www.mssrf.org/sites/default/files/2025-05/Report-CCW-Study-v2-a_0.pdf
60. National Centre for Disease Control. (2024). Report of heat related activities conducted
in India in 2024. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. https://ncdc.mohfw.gov.in/wp-
content/uploads/2024/12/Report-of-Heat-Related-Activities-2024_NPCCHH.pdf
61. Nayak, S. and Swain, A. K. (2023). Gender and Just Transition: Envisioning a Gender-
Transformative Pathway to Energy Transition India’s Coal States. Initiative for Climate, 61
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
Energy, and Environment. Centre for Policy Research. New Delhi, India. https://cprindia.
org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Gender-and-Just-Transition_Nayak-Swain.pdf
62. NITI Aayog, RMI, Transforming Trucking In India: Pathways to Zero Emission Truck
Deployment, September 2022. https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2023-02/
ZETReport09092022.pdf
63. NITI Aayog. (2019, August). Composite water management index 2019 (in association with
the Ministry of Jal Shakti and the Ministry of Rural Development) . NITI Aayog. https://
www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2023-03/CompositeWaterManagementIndex.pdf
64. NITI Aayog. (2021). Roadmap for ethanol blending in India: 2020–25. Government
of India. https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2021-06/EthanolBlendingInIndia_
compressed.pdf
65. Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India. (2011). Census of India
2011: Migration tables (D-05). https://censusindia.gov.in/nada/index.php/catalog/study/
PC11_D05-00
66. Pandey, A., Brauer, M., Cropper, M. L., et al. (2021). Health and economic impact of air
pollution in the states of India: The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet
Planetary Health, 5(1), e25–e38. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30298-9
67. Patel, N., Dorin, B., & Nagaich, R. (2022). A new paradigm for Indian agriculture:
From agroindustry to agroecology. NITI Aayog. https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/
default/files/2023-03/A-New-Paradigm-for-Indian-Agriculture-from-Agroindustry-to-
Agroecology.pdf
68. Personal2public (P2P) campaign to encourage IT corridor to switch to metro. The Hindu
(2024, May). https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/karnataka/personal2public-
p2p-campaign-to-encourage-it-corridor-to-switch-to-metro/article67075309.ece
69. PIB. (2024, March 15). Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: Progress update. Press Information
Bureau. https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2024/mar/
doc2024315325001.pdf
70. PMUY. (2024). Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: Official dashboard. https://www.pmuy.gov.in
71. Prabhu, Shravan, Keerthana Anthikat Sukesh, Srishti Mandal, Divyanshu Sharma, and
Vishwas Chitale. 2025. How Extreme Heat is Impacting India: Assessing District-level
Heat Risk. New Delhi: Council on Energy, Environment and Water. https://www.ceew.
in/sites/default/files/ceew-how-extreme-heat-is-impacting-india-final-web-file.pdf
72. Prabhu, Shravan, Keerthana Anthikat Sukesh, Srishti Mandal, Divyanshu Sharma, and
Vishwas Chitale. 2025. How Extreme Heat is Impacting India: Assessing District-level
Heat Risk. New Delhi: Council on Energy, Environment and Water.
73. Press Information Bureau, Government of India. (2024, February 5). Per capita
water availability [Press release] https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.
aspx?PRID=2002726
74. Press Information Bureau. (2025). Affordable and accessible healthcare for all.
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. https://www.pib.gov.in/
PressNoteDetails.aspx?ModuleId=3&NoteId=154668®=3&lang=2 62
References Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero: Social Implications of Transition
75. Press Information Bureau. (2025, December). 2025 marks highest-ever renewable
energy expansion in India [Press release]. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.
aspx?PRID=2209478®=3&lang=1
76. Press Information Bureau. (2025, October 26). Jal Jeevan Mission: With ₹2.08 lakh
crore central outlay, delivering tap water to over 15.72 crore rural households [Press
release]. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2182568®=3&lang=2
77. Press Information Bureau. (2026). Year end review 2025: Mission Saksham Anganwadi
and Poshan 2.0. Ministry of Women and Child Development, Government of India.
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2212747
78. Renewable Watch. (2020, December 3). Waterless way: Dry cleaning solutions for solar
panels. https://renewablewatch.in/2020/12/03/waterless-way/
79. Reserve Bank of India. (2024). India KLEMS database. https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/
klems.aspx
80. Romanello, M., Walawender, M., Hsu, S.-C., Moskeland, A., Palmeiro-Silva, Y., Scamman, D.,
... & Watts, N. (2025). Health and climate change in India: 2025 Lancet Countdown data
sheet. Lancet Countdown. https://lancetcountdown.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/
India_Lancet-Countdown_2025_Data-Sheet-2.pdf
81. Roxy MK, Ghosh S, Pathak A, Athulya R, Mujumdar M, Murtugudde R, Terray P,
Rajeevan M. A threefold rise in widespread extreme rain events over central India.
Nat Commun. 2017 Oct 3;8(1):708. doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-00744-9 PMID: 28974680;
PMCID: PMC5626780
82. Singh, S. (2025). The silent disaster: Why India must build stronger heatwave resilience.
The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI). https://www.teriin.org/article/silent-disaster-
why-india-must-build-stronger-heatwave-resilience
83. The Nature Conservancy India. (2020). Scaling up renewable energy deployment in
India: Pathways to reduced socio-ecological risks. https://www.tncindia.in/content/
dam/tnc/nature/en/documents/india/Scaling_up_Renewable_Energy_Deployment_
in_India.pdf
84. UNICEF. (2020 March). Swachh Bharat: A journey towards sanitation for all. https://
www.unicef.org/india/media/8801/file/UNICEF.pdf
85. World Bank. (2013). Turn Down the Heat: Climate extremes, regional impacts, and
the case for resilience (Vol. II: South Asia report) https://www.worldbank.org/content/
dam/Worldbank/document/Full_Report_Vol_2_Turn_Down_The_Heat_%20Climate_
Extremes_Regional_Impacts_Case_for_Resilience_Print%20version_FINAL.pdf
86. World Bank. (2023). Arable land (hectares per person) – India. World Bank Data.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.HA.PC?locations=IN
87. World Bank. (2023). Arable land (hectares per person) – World. World Bank Data.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.HA.PC?locations=1W
88. Zhang, Y., Li, X., & Wang, J. (2024). Ecological construction status of photovoltaic
power plants in China’s deserts. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 12, Article 1406546.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2024.1406546 VOL. 11
SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS
OF TRANSITION
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
VOL. 11
SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS
OF TRANSITION
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO