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April 2026 1
NITIसंधान
April 2026
• Realising the Export Potential of India’s Sports Equipment
Manufacturing Sector
• Fiscal Health Index - 2026
• Empowering Farmers: Natural Farming Training Toolkit & Best
Practices Guide
• National Monetisation Pipeline 2.0
• Revitalising India’s Apprenticeship Ecosystem
• Economic Plan For Bhubaneshwar Cuttack-Puri-Paradeep
• Technology Services – Reimagination Ahead
• 11 reports on Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero
• Enhancing Circular Economy of End-of-Life Vehicles; Waste Tyres;
Waste Electronic and Electrical Equipment (E-waste) and Lithium-
Ion Batteries in India
• Roadmap for Aluminium Sector Decarbonisation; Cement Sector
Decarbonisation & Green Transition of MSMEs
• Model Curriculum for Diploma in Seaweed
Farming and Entrepreneurship
• Achieving Efficiencies in MSME Sector Through
Convergence of Schemes
• Export Preparedness Index 2024
• A Comprehensive Framework to Promote Affordable
Housing
Quarterly newsletter by Research and Networking (R&N) Division of NITI Aayog
At NITI Aayog, our efforts remain focused
on strengthening India’s economic
foundations through data-driven insights
and targeted policy interventions. This
edition of NITIसंधान highlights key analytical
work in areas of trade performance, fiscal
health, and export competitiveness, which
are critical to sustaining inclusive and
broad-based growth.
The Trade Watch analysis provides timely insights into evolving
global and domestic trade trends, enabling responsive policy
action. The Fiscal Health Index offers a comprehensive assessment
of state-level finances, supporting prudent fiscal management
and improved resource allocation. Further, the Export Preparedness
Index and sectoral studies on export promotion underscore the
importance of enhancing competitiveness across regions and
sectors.
Together, these initiatives aim to strengthen institutional capacity,
promote balanced regional development, and ensure that the
benefits of growth reach the grassroots, fostering livelihoods,
employment, and economic resilience across the country.
India’s development journey is inherently
diverse, necessitating policy approaches
that are adaptable, inclusive, and firmly
grounded in in collaboration across sectors
and regions. This edition of NITIसंधान reflects
a sustained focus on strengthening the
social and economic foundations that
directly shape citizens’ quality of life.
The Economic Plan for the Bhubaneswar-Cuttack-Puri-Paradeep
Economic Region demonstrates how close collaboration with
States can enable integrated, region-specific growth strategies that
harmonise economic expansion with sustainability and preservation
of cultural heritage. In parallel, the focus on natural farming signals
a transition towards environmentally sustainable agricultural
practices that enhance both farmers’ resilience and their incomes.
The framework on affordable housing highlights the importance
of coordinated reforms to ensure equitable access to urban living,
while initiatives to revitalise the apprenticeship ecosystem aim to
strengthen the interface between education and employment.
Collectively, these efforts embody a cooperative and consultative
approach to policymaking – one that empowers States, reinforces
local ecosystems, and ensures that development remains
inclusive, balanced, and responsive to India’s evolving needs.
Scan this QR to access
previous editions of
NITIसंधान
Message from
Vice Chairperson
From the desk of
the CEO
About Research and Networking
(R&N) Division
NITI Spotlight: Ideas, Impact, Insights
In 2024, NITI Aayog established the Research &
Networking (R&N) Division to strengthen and streamline
policy research through a robust pipeline of high-
impact studies. It fosters partnerships with leading think
tanks and internal divisions, building a collaborative
resource network. The division also drives a multi-
pronged dissemination strategy, via newsletters, reports,
and policy briefs, ensuring insights are accessible and
actionable, thereby positioning NITI Aayog as a hub for
research excellence and strategic partnerships.
Ms Anna Roy
(Programme Director, R&N Division, NITI Aayog)
E-mail at pdresearch-niti@gov.in
NITI Aayog and UNICEF India signed a Statement of Intent to
boost nutrition in Aspirational Districts and Blocks. Through
IMPAct4Nutrition, UNICEF will provide technical expertise and
mobilise CSR partnerships to strengthen maternal and child
nutrition outcomes in underserved regions.
Research Publications this Quarter
Edited by: Ms Chaheti Singh Sisodia (Young Professional, R&N Division, NITI Aayog)
Email: chahetisingh.s@niti.gov.inScan this QR
to access NITI
Publications
Ms Nidhi Chhibber
CEO, NITI Aayog
Shri Suman Bery
Vice Chairperson, NITI Aayog April 2026 2
April 2026
Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj
Programme Director,
Energy; Green Transition &
Climate Change Division
Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero
I
ndia stands at a pivotal moment
in its growth journey. The Hon’ble
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
has envisioned a USD 30 trillion
developed economy (Viksit
Bharat) by 2047, even as climate
change increasingly impacts
livelihoods and ecosystems.
India has also committed to
Net Zero emissions by 2070, an
unprecedented dual challenge
for any major economy.
Amid global uncertainties, NITI Aayog constituted eleven Inter-Ministerial Working
Groups to develop integrated, quantifiable pathways. Rising incomes and urbanisation
will drive energy demand, while enabling opportunities for efficient, low-carbon growth
under two scenarios: Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS). (See
Figure-1)
Voice of our
Researchers
Figure-1: Select indicators of development
Energy Demand: Improvements in energy efficiency, electrification,
and circularity drive a gradual decoupling of energy demand from
GDP. Despite ~11-fold GDP growth, final energy demand rises only
2–2.5 times—from 688 Mtoe in 2025 to 1465–1811 Mtoe by 2070.
Primary energy supply grows to 2492 Mtoe (CPS) and 2159 Mtoe
(NZS), while fossil fuel share declines from 87% to 54% (CPS) and
14% (NZS), making NZS largely non-fossil, with residual emissions
managed via carbon capture. India can achieve high human
development (HDI ≥ 0.8) at lower per capita energy use (55–60 GJ),
reflecting greater efficiency. (See Figure-2)
Electrification becomes the
dominant mode of energy
delivery, with electricity’s share
of final energy rising from 21%
in 2025 to 40% in Current Policy
Scenario and 60% in Net Zero
Scenario by 2070. Demand-side
transitions such as EV adoption
and the use of green hydrogen
further reinforce the shift toward
a low-carbon, electricity-led
energy system. This surge in electricity demand is supported by a massive scale-up of clean supply (solar, wind, and
nuclear), complemented by 2500–3000 GW of battery storage (See Figure-3).
Levers of Transition: Emissions reductions are driven primarily by
structural shifts in the energy system-clean power, electrification, and
efficiency, supported by smaller contributions from circularity, urban
design, agriculture, and sinks (See Figure-4). These measures deliver the
bulk of abatement. ~22% residual emissions that remain underscores the
critical role of carbon capture technologies.
Finance Requirement: The study estimates USD 22.7 trillion in cumulative
investment by 2070 under the Net Zero Scenario, with over half required
in the power sector to enable electrification and low-
carbon generation. This translates to ~USD 500 billion
annually, significantly higher than current investments
of ~USD 135 billion in 2024, with only USD 70–80 billion directed toward clean energy. About USD 8
trillion must be front-loaded by 2050 due to capital-intensive technologies.
Against the USD 22.7 trillion Net Zero investment need and estimated flows of USD 16.2 trillion, a
financing gap of USD 6.53 trillion remains. This is likely to be met largely through external sources,
raising their share to 42% by 2070 from 17% in 2022–23. Despite this, macroeconomic analysis
suggests only a marginal impact on growth, underscoring the resilience of the Net Zero pathway
and its alignment with the Viksit Bharat vision.
Figure-2: Primary Energy Supply
Scan this QR to
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report
Figure-3: Select Levers of transition
Figure-4: Key levers to reduce emissions April 2026 Trade Watch- Quarterly
July - September [Q2] FY 2025-26
Realising the Export Potential of India’s
Sports Equipment Manufacturing Sector
Economic Plan For Bhubaneshwar-Cuttack-
Puri-Paradeep Economic Region
Model Curriculum for Diploma in Seaweed
Farming and Entrepreneurship
Economics and Finance-I Division
Global goods and services trade growth
between July and September slowed but
remained positive, with services trade
growth outpacing that of goods and
expanding by 4% and 2%, respectively, as
compared to the previous quarter. The
increase in value was driven by higher
prices. The increase was supported by
stronger trade performance in developing countries, with
robust performance particularly in East Asia and Africa.
India’s merchandise and services trade performance
recorded a 5.1% y-o-y increase between April and September
2025, supported by strong export growth in merchandise
and services exports. During this period, total trade reached
$895.1 bn. Exports witnessed a growth of 5.8% and imports
4.4% y-o-y, with exports reaching $418.6 bn and imports at
$476.5 bn between April and September 2025. (Fig 1)
Economics & Finance-II Division
India stands at a pivotal juncture to transform
its sports equipment manufacturing sector
into a global export powerhouse. While
currently holding a modest 0.5% global
market share, the sector is poised for
exponential growth, targeting $8.1 billion
in exports and the creation of 54 lakh jobs
by 2036. This report outlines a strategic
roadmap leveraging upcoming mega-events, such as India’s
2036 Olympic bid and the 2030 Commonwealth Games, to
anchor domestic demand. By addressing structural cost
disadvantages, modernising legacy clusters, and establishing
new hubs in states like Gujarat, India can become a trusted
supplier in a global market projected to reach $300 billion.
Managing Urbanisation Division
NITI Aayog has unveiled the Economic Plan
for the Bhubaneswar-Cuttack-Puri-Paradeep
Economic Region (BCPPER) under its flagship
Growth Hub (G-Hub) initiative. This roadmap
aims to transform BCPPER into a $500 billion
economic powerhouse by 2047, projecting
it to contribute nearly one-third of Odisha’s
GDP. Moving away from isolated urban
development, the plan adopts an integrated
regional approach that harmonises economic expansion with
ecological resilience and cultural preservation.
The blueprint outlines a project-driven strategy across all core
sectors. It leverages Paradeep for port-led industrialisation,
positions Bhubaneswar and Cuttack as unified knowledge and
IT hubs, and develops Puri’s rich heritage for global tourism.
Furthermore, it modernises agriculture and aquaculture for export-
led growth. Spearheaded by the proposed Economic Region
Development Authority (ERDA), this ambitious plan establishes
a national benchmark for sustainable and inclusive urban
transformation, advancing the dream of Viksit Bharat @2047.
Agriculture Technology Division
The report aims to unlock India's vast seaweed
potential and empower over 5 million coastal
fishermen. The comprehensive curriculum
covers the entire seaweed value chain,
including cultivation techniques, disease
management, post-harvest processing, and
product marketing. By equipping the youth
and coastal communities with essential skills,
the report seeks to foster sustainable employment, boost
entrepreneurship, and enhance rural economic prosperity.
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report
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report
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report
April 2026
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report
3 April 2026 4
Circular Economy Reports Roadmaps for Decarbonisation and Green
Transition
Green Transition Climate & Environment Division
Advancing Circular Economy of E-waste
and Lithium-Ion Batteries
Rapid growth in e-waste and lithium-
ion batteries is largely managed by the
informal sector using unsafe methods.
The report calls for expanding Extended
Producer Responsibility (EPR) to cover critical
minerals, upgrading recycling infrastructure,
setting purity standards, and formalising
the workforce to secure supply chains and
reduce imports.
Enhancing Circular Economy of End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs)
India’s ELVs may reach 50 million by 2030, with informal
scrapping causing pollution and material loss. The report
stresses strengthening EPR, leveraging carbon credits, improving
awareness, and scaling formal scrapping through Automated
Testing Stations (ATS) and Registered Vehicle Scrapping Facilities
(RVSFs).
Enhancing Circular Economy of Waste Tyres
With tyre waste set to rise, current recycling lacks traceability
and standards. The report recommends revising EPR norms,
setting standards for Tyre Pyrolysis Oil (TPO) and recovered
Carbon Black (rCB), and promoting retreading to extend lifespan
and reduce environmental impact.
Scan this QR to
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report
Energy Division
India’s pursuit of net-zero emissions by
2070 requires balancing rapid economic
growth with urgent environmental action.
To achieve this, NITI Aayog has developed
strategic roadmaps guiding the green
transition across critical hard-to-abate
industries.
Aluminium Sector
This roadmap focuses on decarbonising the highly energy-
intensive smelting process. It recommends a phased
transition starting with Round-The-Clock Renewable Energy
(RE-RTC), integrating small modular nuclear reactors, and
retrofitting existing coal plants with CCUS.
Cement Sector
To tackle significant thermal and process emissions, this
framework prioritises substituting coal with refuse-derived
fuel (RDF) from municipal waste, expanding the use of clinker
substitutes, and scaling CCUS pilot projects.
MSME Sector
This strategy empowers small enterprises to lower
operational costs and emissions through three core levers:
enhancing energy efficiency, adopting green electricity
like rooftop solar, and transitioning to alternative fuels with
targeted financial support.
Scan this QR to
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report April 2026 Empowering Farmers: Natural Farming Training Toolkit & Best Practices Guide
Revitalising India’s Apprenticeship
Ecosystem: Insights, Challenges,
Recommendations and Best Practices
Agriculture Technology Division
This training manual serves as a comprehensive
guide for implementing natural farming in India. It
presents an agricultural framework that replaces
synthetic chemicals with livestock integration,
bio-inputs, and agroecological principles to
restore soil health and reduce production costs.
The text traces the evolution of these practices
from traditional knowledge systems to modern
approaches focused on sustainability and
climate resilience. It includes practical guidance
on seed treatment, water conservation, and crop
management. The English manual is designed
to help Extension Officers implement promotion
programs, while a separate Hindi manual has
been developed specifically to support farmers.
Skill Development, Labour and Employment Division
The report offers a strategic roadmap to align skill development
with the Viksit Bharat @2047 vision. It comprehensively evaluates
flagship schemes like National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme
(NAPS) and National Apprenticeship Training Scheme (NATS),
highlighting both achievements and critical challenges such as
regional disparities, low MSME participation, and high apprentice
dropout rates.
To effectively bridge the education-to-
employment gap, the report presents a five-
pillar recommendation framework. Key policy
proposals include launching a unified National
Apprenticeship Mission (NAM), creating a
Startup Apprenticeship Programme (SAP),
and linking apprenticeships seamlessly with
academic credits. Ultimately, this blueprint
aims to build a dynamic, inclusive, and future-
ready Indian workforce.
Public-Private Partnerships Division
The report outlines
a strategic five-year
framework (FY26 to FY30)
to unlock value from
brownfield and greenfield
public-sector assets. With
an ambitious target of INR
16.72 Lakh Crore across 12
sectors, it aims to mobilise
private capital for reinvestment into new
infrastructure creation. Covering critical
areas like highways, railways, power, ports,
and coal, NMP 2.0 leverages models like
InvITs, TOT, and PPPs to enhance operational
efficiency while retaining public ownership.
This capital recycling mechanism will
significantly accelerate infrastructure
expansion, generate employment, and
directly support the long-term vision of
Viksit Bharat @2047.
April 2026
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report
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report
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report
5
National Monetisation Pipeline 2.0 April 2026 6
Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero
Energy Division
India stands at a decisive moment in its history, undertaking a developmental journey with no historical precedent.
These 11 reports provide an integrated, multi-sectoral blueprint for how India can transform into a developed nation
while leading the global fight against climate change.
The Dual Ambition: Prosperity and Climate Action
The core vision is to propel India into a USD 30 trillion developed economy by 2047, while simultaneously achieving
Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070. No major economy has ever attempted to scale its GDP nearly eightfold
within a single generation while actively redirecting its energy and industrial systems toward a low-carbon pathway.
These reports assert a 'development-first' approach, demonstrating that climate action and rapid economic growth
can advance together to improve living standards, build adaptive capacity, and eradicate poverty.
Driving Sectoral Transformations
To realise this vision, a profound structural shift is required across all major economic sectors. The reports outline
pathways for deep demand electrification, energy efficiency, and a transition to clean power. By 2070, electricity's share
in final energy demand must jump to 60%, driven by electric mobility, efficient buildings, and industrial electrification.
Hard-to-abate industries will rely on green hydrogen, carbon capture, and circular economy practices. Meanwhile, the
transport and building sectors will require transit-oriented urban planning, modal shifts, and rigorous enforcement of
energy codes to avoid locking in inefficiencies.
The Trillion-Dollar Financing Opportunity
Transitioning to Net Zero is an investment-intensive endeavour. The models estimate a cumulative investment
requirement of USD 22.7 trillion by 2070 under the Net Zero Scenario. While this reveals a financing gap of USD 6.5 trillion
against projected flows, mobilising long-term, concessional international capital and deepening domestic markets
can bridge this divide. Crucially, the macroeconomic assessments reveal that the Net Zero transition has only a
marginal impact on long-term GDP growth, and will significantly lower India's fuel import bills, ultimately strengthening
the country's macroeconomic and external resilience.
Securing Supply Chains and Social Equity
A low-carbon future brings new dependencies, particularly regarding Critical Energy Transition
Minerals (CETMs) like lithium, copper, and nickel. The reports emphasise that mitigating supply
chain vulnerabilities requires scaling domestic processing, aggressive recycling, and strategic
international partnerships. Furthermore, the transition must be just and equitable, as it will profoundly
impact land use, water resources, and millions of fossil-fuel-dependent livelihoods. By integrating
targeted reskilling, regional diversification, and behavioural nudges anchored in Mission LiFE, India
can ensure that its path to Net Zero is inclusive, creating green jobs while protecting vulnerable
communities.
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report April 2026 7
Technology Services – Reimagination Ahead
Frontier Tech Hub Initiative
The roadmap presents a ten-year
approach to transform India’s $265
billion technology services sector into
a $750–850 billion industry by 2035.
It highlights an AI-driven inflection
point, urging a shift from labour-
arbitrage models to AI-native, IP-led
and platform-based services. Key
growth levers include Agentic AI, SaaS,
digital infrastructure, innovation-
led engineering and capturing India’s rapidly expanding
domestic market. The roadmap urges industry to expand
into new verticals and geographies, build defensible IP and
reimagine R&D; and calls on government to establish a National Tech Services Single Window—anchored by an inter-
ministerial group—to drive ease of doing business, enable global market access and prepare the workforce for the AI
transition, driving high-quality jobs and supporting the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision.
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report
AI-Preneurs of India
Atal Innovation Mission
The AI-Preneurs of India compendium, part of the Innovations
for You coffee table series by Atal Innovation Mission,
showcases 45 entrepreneurs leveraging artificial intelligence
to address critical challenges in sectors like healthcare,
agriculture, sustainability, and governance. The 7th edition
highlights a new wave of innovators combining technology
with purpose to drive inclusive and responsible solutions. It
reflects India’s growing strength in AI-led entrepreneurship, where innovation
meets societal impact. Supported by AIM’s extensive ecosystem, these startups
exemplify how mentorship, infrastructure, and vision can enable scalable,
context-driven solutions for national and global challenges.
Author: Garima Ujjainia,
Innovation Lead, AIM
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report
A Comprehensive Framework to
Promote Affordable Housing
Managing Urbanisation Division
With India’s urban population projected
to reach 85 crore by 2050, a 5–7 crore
unit housing deficit persists. This report
proposes a paradigm shift from
demand-driven subsidies to structural
reforms in land, finance, and tenancy.
Key interventions include reserving
10% of residential land for affordable
housing, raising the Floor Area Ratio to
5-6, and adopting the Model Tenancy
Act to unlock 1 crore vacant homes.
Financial catalysts like tax-free bonds
and Section 80-IBA
profit exemptions
aim to mobilise
private capital.
Linking urban mission
funding to state-level
reforms ensures a
scalable, inclusive
housing ecosystem.
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report April 2026 8
Export Preparedness Index 2024
Economics & Finance-II Division
The Export Preparedness Index (EPI) 2024, developed
by NITI Aayog, assesses the export readiness of Indian
States and Union Territories. Utilising a structured,
data-driven framework, it evaluates regions across
four core pillars: Export Infrastructure, Business
Ecosystem, Policy & Governance,
and Export Performance. By
categorising states into Leaders,
Challengers, and Aspirers, the index
highlights regional strengths and
gaps to guide targeted policies
and boost India’s global trade
competitiveness.
Working Papers this Quarter
• Education and Skilling for Employment: From
Credentials to Learning Outcomes
• Gondwana: Economic Integration of Indian
Ocean Region
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Working Papers
Industry & Foreign Investment Division
The report addresses the inefficiencies, duplication
of efforts, and fragmented delivery of government
support to Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises
(MSMEs). To optimise resource allocation and
maximise impact, the study advocates for strategic
convergence across various ministries and
departments.
It proposes two main pillars to achieve this:
Information Convergence, which involves creating
a centralised, AI-powered digital portal to integrate
data and streamline access to schemes, and Process
Convergence, which aims to unify overlapping
initiatives and foster Centre-State collaboration.
Key actionable recommendations
include merging similar programs like
SFURTI with MSE-CDP, consolidating
various skill development programs,
and aligning domestic and
international marketing initiatives to
ensure sustainable growth for the
sector.
Scan this QR to
access the full
report
Achieving Efficiencies in the MSME Sector
Through Convergence of Schemes
NITIसंधान
April 2026
• Realising the Export Potential of India’s Sports Equipment
Manufacturing Sector
• Fiscal Health Index - 2026
• Empowering Farmers: Natural Farming Training Toolkit & Best
Practices Guide
• National Monetisation Pipeline 2.0
• Revitalising India’s Apprenticeship Ecosystem
• Economic Plan For Bhubaneshwar Cuttack-Puri-Paradeep
• Technology Services – Reimagination Ahead
• 11 reports on Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero
• Enhancing Circular Economy of End-of-Life Vehicles; Waste Tyres;
Waste Electronic and Electrical Equipment (E-waste) and Lithium-
Ion Batteries in India
• Roadmap for Aluminium Sector Decarbonisation; Cement Sector
Decarbonisation & Green Transition of MSMEs
• Model Curriculum for Diploma in Seaweed
Farming and Entrepreneurship
• Achieving Efficiencies in MSME Sector Through
Convergence of Schemes
• Export Preparedness Index 2024
• A Comprehensive Framework to Promote Affordable
Housing
Quarterly newsletter by Research and Networking (R&N) Division of NITI Aayog
At NITI Aayog, our efforts remain focused
on strengthening India’s economic
foundations through data-driven insights
and targeted policy interventions. This
edition of NITIसंधान highlights key analytical
work in areas of trade performance, fiscal
health, and export competitiveness, which
are critical to sustaining inclusive and
broad-based growth.
The Trade Watch analysis provides timely insights into evolving
global and domestic trade trends, enabling responsive policy
action. The Fiscal Health Index offers a comprehensive assessment
of state-level finances, supporting prudent fiscal management
and improved resource allocation. Further, the Export Preparedness
Index and sectoral studies on export promotion underscore the
importance of enhancing competitiveness across regions and
sectors.
Together, these initiatives aim to strengthen institutional capacity,
promote balanced regional development, and ensure that the
benefits of growth reach the grassroots, fostering livelihoods,
employment, and economic resilience across the country.
India’s development journey is inherently
diverse, necessitating policy approaches
that are adaptable, inclusive, and firmly
grounded in in collaboration across sectors
and regions. This edition of NITIसंधान reflects
a sustained focus on strengthening the
social and economic foundations that
directly shape citizens’ quality of life.
The Economic Plan for the Bhubaneswar-Cuttack-Puri-Paradeep
Economic Region demonstrates how close collaboration with
States can enable integrated, region-specific growth strategies that
harmonise economic expansion with sustainability and preservation
of cultural heritage. In parallel, the focus on natural farming signals
a transition towards environmentally sustainable agricultural
practices that enhance both farmers’ resilience and their incomes.
The framework on affordable housing highlights the importance
of coordinated reforms to ensure equitable access to urban living,
while initiatives to revitalise the apprenticeship ecosystem aim to
strengthen the interface between education and employment.
Collectively, these efforts embody a cooperative and consultative
approach to policymaking – one that empowers States, reinforces
local ecosystems, and ensures that development remains
inclusive, balanced, and responsive to India’s evolving needs.
Scan this QR to access
previous editions of
NITIसंधान
Message from
Vice Chairperson
From the desk of
the CEO
About Research and Networking
(R&N) Division
NITI Spotlight: Ideas, Impact, Insights
In 2024, NITI Aayog established the Research &
Networking (R&N) Division to strengthen and streamline
policy research through a robust pipeline of high-
impact studies. It fosters partnerships with leading think
tanks and internal divisions, building a collaborative
resource network. The division also drives a multi-
pronged dissemination strategy, via newsletters, reports,
and policy briefs, ensuring insights are accessible and
actionable, thereby positioning NITI Aayog as a hub for
research excellence and strategic partnerships.
Ms Anna Roy
(Programme Director, R&N Division, NITI Aayog)
E-mail at pdresearch-niti@gov.in
NITI Aayog and UNICEF India signed a Statement of Intent to
boost nutrition in Aspirational Districts and Blocks. Through
IMPAct4Nutrition, UNICEF will provide technical expertise and
mobilise CSR partnerships to strengthen maternal and child
nutrition outcomes in underserved regions.
Research Publications this Quarter
Edited by: Ms Chaheti Singh Sisodia (Young Professional, R&N Division, NITI Aayog)
Email: chahetisingh.s@niti.gov.inScan this QR
to access NITI
Publications
Ms Nidhi Chhibber
CEO, NITI Aayog
Shri Suman Bery
Vice Chairperson, NITI Aayog April 2026 2
April 2026
Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj
Programme Director,
Energy; Green Transition &
Climate Change Division
Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero
I
ndia stands at a pivotal moment
in its growth journey. The Hon’ble
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
has envisioned a USD 30 trillion
developed economy (Viksit
Bharat) by 2047, even as climate
change increasingly impacts
livelihoods and ecosystems.
India has also committed to
Net Zero emissions by 2070, an
unprecedented dual challenge
for any major economy.
Amid global uncertainties, NITI Aayog constituted eleven Inter-Ministerial Working
Groups to develop integrated, quantifiable pathways. Rising incomes and urbanisation
will drive energy demand, while enabling opportunities for efficient, low-carbon growth
under two scenarios: Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS). (See
Figure-1)
Voice of our
Researchers
Figure-1: Select indicators of development
Energy Demand: Improvements in energy efficiency, electrification,
and circularity drive a gradual decoupling of energy demand from
GDP. Despite ~11-fold GDP growth, final energy demand rises only
2–2.5 times—from 688 Mtoe in 2025 to 1465–1811 Mtoe by 2070.
Primary energy supply grows to 2492 Mtoe (CPS) and 2159 Mtoe
(NZS), while fossil fuel share declines from 87% to 54% (CPS) and
14% (NZS), making NZS largely non-fossil, with residual emissions
managed via carbon capture. India can achieve high human
development (HDI ≥ 0.8) at lower per capita energy use (55–60 GJ),
reflecting greater efficiency. (See Figure-2)
Electrification becomes the
dominant mode of energy
delivery, with electricity’s share
of final energy rising from 21%
in 2025 to 40% in Current Policy
Scenario and 60% in Net Zero
Scenario by 2070. Demand-side
transitions such as EV adoption
and the use of green hydrogen
further reinforce the shift toward
a low-carbon, electricity-led
energy system. This surge in electricity demand is supported by a massive scale-up of clean supply (solar, wind, and
nuclear), complemented by 2500–3000 GW of battery storage (See Figure-3).
Levers of Transition: Emissions reductions are driven primarily by
structural shifts in the energy system-clean power, electrification, and
efficiency, supported by smaller contributions from circularity, urban
design, agriculture, and sinks (See Figure-4). These measures deliver the
bulk of abatement. ~22% residual emissions that remain underscores the
critical role of carbon capture technologies.
Finance Requirement: The study estimates USD 22.7 trillion in cumulative
investment by 2070 under the Net Zero Scenario, with over half required
in the power sector to enable electrification and low-
carbon generation. This translates to ~USD 500 billion
annually, significantly higher than current investments
of ~USD 135 billion in 2024, with only USD 70–80 billion directed toward clean energy. About USD 8
trillion must be front-loaded by 2050 due to capital-intensive technologies.
Against the USD 22.7 trillion Net Zero investment need and estimated flows of USD 16.2 trillion, a
financing gap of USD 6.53 trillion remains. This is likely to be met largely through external sources,
raising their share to 42% by 2070 from 17% in 2022–23. Despite this, macroeconomic analysis
suggests only a marginal impact on growth, underscoring the resilience of the Net Zero pathway
and its alignment with the Viksit Bharat vision.
Figure-2: Primary Energy Supply
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Figure-3: Select Levers of transition
Figure-4: Key levers to reduce emissions April 2026 Trade Watch- Quarterly
July - September [Q2] FY 2025-26
Realising the Export Potential of India’s
Sports Equipment Manufacturing Sector
Economic Plan For Bhubaneshwar-Cuttack-
Puri-Paradeep Economic Region
Model Curriculum for Diploma in Seaweed
Farming and Entrepreneurship
Economics and Finance-I Division
Global goods and services trade growth
between July and September slowed but
remained positive, with services trade
growth outpacing that of goods and
expanding by 4% and 2%, respectively, as
compared to the previous quarter. The
increase in value was driven by higher
prices. The increase was supported by
stronger trade performance in developing countries, with
robust performance particularly in East Asia and Africa.
India’s merchandise and services trade performance
recorded a 5.1% y-o-y increase between April and September
2025, supported by strong export growth in merchandise
and services exports. During this period, total trade reached
$895.1 bn. Exports witnessed a growth of 5.8% and imports
4.4% y-o-y, with exports reaching $418.6 bn and imports at
$476.5 bn between April and September 2025. (Fig 1)
Economics & Finance-II Division
India stands at a pivotal juncture to transform
its sports equipment manufacturing sector
into a global export powerhouse. While
currently holding a modest 0.5% global
market share, the sector is poised for
exponential growth, targeting $8.1 billion
in exports and the creation of 54 lakh jobs
by 2036. This report outlines a strategic
roadmap leveraging upcoming mega-events, such as India’s
2036 Olympic bid and the 2030 Commonwealth Games, to
anchor domestic demand. By addressing structural cost
disadvantages, modernising legacy clusters, and establishing
new hubs in states like Gujarat, India can become a trusted
supplier in a global market projected to reach $300 billion.
Managing Urbanisation Division
NITI Aayog has unveiled the Economic Plan
for the Bhubaneswar-Cuttack-Puri-Paradeep
Economic Region (BCPPER) under its flagship
Growth Hub (G-Hub) initiative. This roadmap
aims to transform BCPPER into a $500 billion
economic powerhouse by 2047, projecting
it to contribute nearly one-third of Odisha’s
GDP. Moving away from isolated urban
development, the plan adopts an integrated
regional approach that harmonises economic expansion with
ecological resilience and cultural preservation.
The blueprint outlines a project-driven strategy across all core
sectors. It leverages Paradeep for port-led industrialisation,
positions Bhubaneswar and Cuttack as unified knowledge and
IT hubs, and develops Puri’s rich heritage for global tourism.
Furthermore, it modernises agriculture and aquaculture for export-
led growth. Spearheaded by the proposed Economic Region
Development Authority (ERDA), this ambitious plan establishes
a national benchmark for sustainable and inclusive urban
transformation, advancing the dream of Viksit Bharat @2047.
Agriculture Technology Division
The report aims to unlock India's vast seaweed
potential and empower over 5 million coastal
fishermen. The comprehensive curriculum
covers the entire seaweed value chain,
including cultivation techniques, disease
management, post-harvest processing, and
product marketing. By equipping the youth
and coastal communities with essential skills,
the report seeks to foster sustainable employment, boost
entrepreneurship, and enhance rural economic prosperity.
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April 2026
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3 April 2026 4
Circular Economy Reports Roadmaps for Decarbonisation and Green
Transition
Green Transition Climate & Environment Division
Advancing Circular Economy of E-waste
and Lithium-Ion Batteries
Rapid growth in e-waste and lithium-
ion batteries is largely managed by the
informal sector using unsafe methods.
The report calls for expanding Extended
Producer Responsibility (EPR) to cover critical
minerals, upgrading recycling infrastructure,
setting purity standards, and formalising
the workforce to secure supply chains and
reduce imports.
Enhancing Circular Economy of End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs)
India’s ELVs may reach 50 million by 2030, with informal
scrapping causing pollution and material loss. The report
stresses strengthening EPR, leveraging carbon credits, improving
awareness, and scaling formal scrapping through Automated
Testing Stations (ATS) and Registered Vehicle Scrapping Facilities
(RVSFs).
Enhancing Circular Economy of Waste Tyres
With tyre waste set to rise, current recycling lacks traceability
and standards. The report recommends revising EPR norms,
setting standards for Tyre Pyrolysis Oil (TPO) and recovered
Carbon Black (rCB), and promoting retreading to extend lifespan
and reduce environmental impact.
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Energy Division
India’s pursuit of net-zero emissions by
2070 requires balancing rapid economic
growth with urgent environmental action.
To achieve this, NITI Aayog has developed
strategic roadmaps guiding the green
transition across critical hard-to-abate
industries.
Aluminium Sector
This roadmap focuses on decarbonising the highly energy-
intensive smelting process. It recommends a phased
transition starting with Round-The-Clock Renewable Energy
(RE-RTC), integrating small modular nuclear reactors, and
retrofitting existing coal plants with CCUS.
Cement Sector
To tackle significant thermal and process emissions, this
framework prioritises substituting coal with refuse-derived
fuel (RDF) from municipal waste, expanding the use of clinker
substitutes, and scaling CCUS pilot projects.
MSME Sector
This strategy empowers small enterprises to lower
operational costs and emissions through three core levers:
enhancing energy efficiency, adopting green electricity
like rooftop solar, and transitioning to alternative fuels with
targeted financial support.
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report April 2026 Empowering Farmers: Natural Farming Training Toolkit & Best Practices Guide
Revitalising India’s Apprenticeship
Ecosystem: Insights, Challenges,
Recommendations and Best Practices
Agriculture Technology Division
This training manual serves as a comprehensive
guide for implementing natural farming in India. It
presents an agricultural framework that replaces
synthetic chemicals with livestock integration,
bio-inputs, and agroecological principles to
restore soil health and reduce production costs.
The text traces the evolution of these practices
from traditional knowledge systems to modern
approaches focused on sustainability and
climate resilience. It includes practical guidance
on seed treatment, water conservation, and crop
management. The English manual is designed
to help Extension Officers implement promotion
programs, while a separate Hindi manual has
been developed specifically to support farmers.
Skill Development, Labour and Employment Division
The report offers a strategic roadmap to align skill development
with the Viksit Bharat @2047 vision. It comprehensively evaluates
flagship schemes like National Apprenticeship Promotion Scheme
(NAPS) and National Apprenticeship Training Scheme (NATS),
highlighting both achievements and critical challenges such as
regional disparities, low MSME participation, and high apprentice
dropout rates.
To effectively bridge the education-to-
employment gap, the report presents a five-
pillar recommendation framework. Key policy
proposals include launching a unified National
Apprenticeship Mission (NAM), creating a
Startup Apprenticeship Programme (SAP),
and linking apprenticeships seamlessly with
academic credits. Ultimately, this blueprint
aims to build a dynamic, inclusive, and future-
ready Indian workforce.
Public-Private Partnerships Division
The report outlines
a strategic five-year
framework (FY26 to FY30)
to unlock value from
brownfield and greenfield
public-sector assets. With
an ambitious target of INR
16.72 Lakh Crore across 12
sectors, it aims to mobilise
private capital for reinvestment into new
infrastructure creation. Covering critical
areas like highways, railways, power, ports,
and coal, NMP 2.0 leverages models like
InvITs, TOT, and PPPs to enhance operational
efficiency while retaining public ownership.
This capital recycling mechanism will
significantly accelerate infrastructure
expansion, generate employment, and
directly support the long-term vision of
Viksit Bharat @2047.
April 2026
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5
National Monetisation Pipeline 2.0 April 2026 6
Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero
Energy Division
India stands at a decisive moment in its history, undertaking a developmental journey with no historical precedent.
These 11 reports provide an integrated, multi-sectoral blueprint for how India can transform into a developed nation
while leading the global fight against climate change.
The Dual Ambition: Prosperity and Climate Action
The core vision is to propel India into a USD 30 trillion developed economy by 2047, while simultaneously achieving
Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070. No major economy has ever attempted to scale its GDP nearly eightfold
within a single generation while actively redirecting its energy and industrial systems toward a low-carbon pathway.
These reports assert a 'development-first' approach, demonstrating that climate action and rapid economic growth
can advance together to improve living standards, build adaptive capacity, and eradicate poverty.
Driving Sectoral Transformations
To realise this vision, a profound structural shift is required across all major economic sectors. The reports outline
pathways for deep demand electrification, energy efficiency, and a transition to clean power. By 2070, electricity's share
in final energy demand must jump to 60%, driven by electric mobility, efficient buildings, and industrial electrification.
Hard-to-abate industries will rely on green hydrogen, carbon capture, and circular economy practices. Meanwhile, the
transport and building sectors will require transit-oriented urban planning, modal shifts, and rigorous enforcement of
energy codes to avoid locking in inefficiencies.
The Trillion-Dollar Financing Opportunity
Transitioning to Net Zero is an investment-intensive endeavour. The models estimate a cumulative investment
requirement of USD 22.7 trillion by 2070 under the Net Zero Scenario. While this reveals a financing gap of USD 6.5 trillion
against projected flows, mobilising long-term, concessional international capital and deepening domestic markets
can bridge this divide. Crucially, the macroeconomic assessments reveal that the Net Zero transition has only a
marginal impact on long-term GDP growth, and will significantly lower India's fuel import bills, ultimately strengthening
the country's macroeconomic and external resilience.
Securing Supply Chains and Social Equity
A low-carbon future brings new dependencies, particularly regarding Critical Energy Transition
Minerals (CETMs) like lithium, copper, and nickel. The reports emphasise that mitigating supply
chain vulnerabilities requires scaling domestic processing, aggressive recycling, and strategic
international partnerships. Furthermore, the transition must be just and equitable, as it will profoundly
impact land use, water resources, and millions of fossil-fuel-dependent livelihoods. By integrating
targeted reskilling, regional diversification, and behavioural nudges anchored in Mission LiFE, India
can ensure that its path to Net Zero is inclusive, creating green jobs while protecting vulnerable
communities.
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Technology Services – Reimagination Ahead
Frontier Tech Hub Initiative
The roadmap presents a ten-year
approach to transform India’s $265
billion technology services sector into
a $750–850 billion industry by 2035.
It highlights an AI-driven inflection
point, urging a shift from labour-
arbitrage models to AI-native, IP-led
and platform-based services. Key
growth levers include Agentic AI, SaaS,
digital infrastructure, innovation-
led engineering and capturing India’s rapidly expanding
domestic market. The roadmap urges industry to expand
into new verticals and geographies, build defensible IP and
reimagine R&D; and calls on government to establish a National Tech Services Single Window—anchored by an inter-
ministerial group—to drive ease of doing business, enable global market access and prepare the workforce for the AI
transition, driving high-quality jobs and supporting the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision.
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AI-Preneurs of India
Atal Innovation Mission
The AI-Preneurs of India compendium, part of the Innovations
for You coffee table series by Atal Innovation Mission,
showcases 45 entrepreneurs leveraging artificial intelligence
to address critical challenges in sectors like healthcare,
agriculture, sustainability, and governance. The 7th edition
highlights a new wave of innovators combining technology
with purpose to drive inclusive and responsible solutions. It
reflects India’s growing strength in AI-led entrepreneurship, where innovation
meets societal impact. Supported by AIM’s extensive ecosystem, these startups
exemplify how mentorship, infrastructure, and vision can enable scalable,
context-driven solutions for national and global challenges.
Author: Garima Ujjainia,
Innovation Lead, AIM
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A Comprehensive Framework to
Promote Affordable Housing
Managing Urbanisation Division
With India’s urban population projected
to reach 85 crore by 2050, a 5–7 crore
unit housing deficit persists. This report
proposes a paradigm shift from
demand-driven subsidies to structural
reforms in land, finance, and tenancy.
Key interventions include reserving
10% of residential land for affordable
housing, raising the Floor Area Ratio to
5-6, and adopting the Model Tenancy
Act to unlock 1 crore vacant homes.
Financial catalysts like tax-free bonds
and Section 80-IBA
profit exemptions
aim to mobilise
private capital.
Linking urban mission
funding to state-level
reforms ensures a
scalable, inclusive
housing ecosystem.
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Export Preparedness Index 2024
Economics & Finance-II Division
The Export Preparedness Index (EPI) 2024, developed
by NITI Aayog, assesses the export readiness of Indian
States and Union Territories. Utilising a structured,
data-driven framework, it evaluates regions across
four core pillars: Export Infrastructure, Business
Ecosystem, Policy & Governance,
and Export Performance. By
categorising states into Leaders,
Challengers, and Aspirers, the index
highlights regional strengths and
gaps to guide targeted policies
and boost India’s global trade
competitiveness.
Working Papers this Quarter
• Education and Skilling for Employment: From
Credentials to Learning Outcomes
• Gondwana: Economic Integration of Indian
Ocean Region
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Industry & Foreign Investment Division
The report addresses the inefficiencies, duplication
of efforts, and fragmented delivery of government
support to Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises
(MSMEs). To optimise resource allocation and
maximise impact, the study advocates for strategic
convergence across various ministries and
departments.
It proposes two main pillars to achieve this:
Information Convergence, which involves creating
a centralised, AI-powered digital portal to integrate
data and streamline access to schemes, and Process
Convergence, which aims to unify overlapping
initiatives and foster Centre-State collaboration.
Key actionable recommendations
include merging similar programs like
SFURTI with MSE-CDP, consolidating
various skill development programs,
and aligning domestic and
international marketing initiatives to
ensure sustainable growth for the
sector.
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Achieving Efficiencies in the MSME Sector
Through Convergence of Schemes