Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-wheelers in India

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FORECASTING PENETRATION OF ELECTRIC TWO-WHEELERS IN INDIA
FORECASTING PENETRATION OF
ELECTRIC
TWO-WHEELERS
IN INDIA
A BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS
AUTHORS
TIFAC NITI AAYOG
Pradeep Srivastava V.K. Saraswat
Arghya Sardar Randheer Singh
Shishir Kumar Goel Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India iii
Driven by concerns over climate change, environmental pollution and energy security,
the road transport sector is undergoing through a transformation with electric mobility
promising to replace the conventional fossil fuel-based transport in near future. Thus,
while determining the policy imperatives for the desired future, planning for infrastructure
and ensuring an appropriate ecosystem, a prior estimate of possible level of penetration
of electric two-wheelers is extremely useful. It is very important to have a bottom-up
analysis of how various policies and economic, market and technological factors may
influence consumer acceptance of electric vehicles. Keeping these issues in mind, NITI
Aayog initiated the bottom up forecasting for electric two-wheelers in collaboration with
TIFAC. Several models were deliberated, studied and discussed before finalizing an Agent
Based tool for analyzing market penetration of electric vehicles on annual basis. Since in
the Indian context two-wheelers have a very prominent role to play, this tool has been used
for scenario analysis of electric two-wheelers penetration, resulting into the present report.
This work could be conceptualized because of the vision and inspiration of Mr. Amitabh
Kant, CEO NITI Aayog, Mr. Sudhendu Sinha provided valuable guidance to the authors
regarding the formulation of the Agent Based Model. Advices and comments received
from other senior officials of NITI Aayog were instrumental in steering this activity to the
right direction.
Valuable inputs were received from the automobile manufacturers, component manufacturers
and Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), either in response to specific
query, or through discussions/brainstorming in various forums.
We would also like to thank our colleagues from TIFAC, NITI Aayog, various research
institutions, educational institutions as well as others who participated in the consumer
survey that enabled us to develop realistic data on Agent Attributes for use in the model.
We hope that this report will provide all relevant stakeholders with important insights and
the Agent Based model, that can be easily customized for other categories of vehicles as
well, will serve as a useful tool for the policy makers, industry, research community and
other stakeholders.
Acknowledgement Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India v
Executive Summary 1
1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................8
1.1 High Level of Petroleum Imports 8
1.2 Fossil Fuel –Market Volatility, Future Uncertainties and
Environmental Concerns10
1.3 Importance of Two-wheelers 11
1.4 Government Initiatives on Electric Mobility 12
1.5 Importance and Prospects of EV Two-wheelers 13
1.6 Need for Analysis of EV Two-wheelers Penetration 14
2. About the Tool...............................................................................................................16
2.1 Modeling Principles 16
2.2 Agent Decision Making 18
2.3 Equations for Agent Decision Making 20
2.4 Aggregating Agent Decisions 23
2.5 Equations for Estimation of Charging Infrastructure and Battery Demands 25
3. Consumer Preferences................................................................................................27
3.1 EV Two-Wheeler Consumer Survey 27
3.2 Agent Attributes 27
3.3 Correlation Matrix 29
3.4 Created Agents 29
3.5 Charging Behaviour 31
4. Technology and Market Trends.................................................................................33
4.1 Survey of Available Electric Two-wheelers 33
4.2 Charging of Electric Two-wheelers 35
4.3 Status of EV Ecosystem and Electric Two-wheelers Production Plan 35
4.4 Trajectory of the Overall Two-Wheeler Market 37
Contents ContentsForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
vi
5. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers Penetration........................................38
5.1 Definition of the Scenarios 38
5.2 Challenged Diffusion Scenario 42
5.2.1 Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Full Constraint 42
5.2.2 Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Production Constraint 46
5.2.3 Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Charge Constraint 49
5.2.4 Challenged Diffusion Scenario with No Constraint 53
5.3 Performance Driven Scenario 56
5.3.1 Performance Driven Scenario with Full Constraint 57
5.3.2 Performance Driven Scenario with Production Constraint 60
5.3.3 Performance Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint 63
5.3.4 Performance Driven Scenario with No Constraint 67
5.4 Low Battery Cost Scenario 70
5.4.1 Low Battery Cost Scenario with Full Constraint 71
5.4.2 Low Battery Cost Scenario with Production Constraint 74
5.4.3 Low Battery Cost Scenario with Charge Constraint 77
5.4.4 Low Battery Cost Scenario with No Constraint 81
5.5 Technology Driven Scenario 84
5.5.1 Technology Driven Scenario with Full Constraint 85
5.5.2 Technology Driven Scenario with Production Constraint 88
5.5.3 Technology Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint 91
5.5.4 Technology Driven Scenario with No Constraint 95
5.6 Incentive Driven Scenario 98
5.6.1 Incentive Driven Scenario with Full Constraint 99
5.6.2 Incentive Driven Scenario with Production Constraint 102
5.6.3 Incentive Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint 105
5.6.4 Incentive Driven Scenario with No Constraint 109
5.7 Battery Cost Challenged Scenario 112
5.7.1 Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Full Constraint 113
5.7.2 Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Production Constraint 116
5.7.3 Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Charge Constraint 120
5.7.4 Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with No Constraint 123
5.8 Same Performance Scenario 127
5.8.1 Same Performance Scenario with Full Constraint 127
5.8.2 Same Performance Scenario with Production Constraint 131
5.8.3 Same Performance Scenario with Charge Constraint 134
5.8.4 Same Performance Scenario with No Constraint 138 ContentsForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
vii
5.9 Optimistic Scenario 141
5.9.1 Optimistic Scenario with Full Constraint 142
5.9.2 Optimistic Scenario with Production Constraint 145
5.9.3 Optimistic Scenario with Charge Constraint 149
5.9.4 Optimistic Scenario with No Constraint 152
6. Conclusions .................................................................................................................156 Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India 1
A shift towards electric mobility is essential for India considering high amount of
petroleum imports, its adverse impact on the trade balance, valuable foreign exchange
and environment. Since, two-wheelers dominate the Indian road transport sector this
segment deserves an immediate attention. The electric two-wheeler technology has now
matured to a significant level and a number of manufacturers have come out in the market
with saleable products. In such context, a bottom-up estimation of future penetration of
electric two-wheelers on yearly-basis will help to have important insights into the required
infrastructure, manufacturing capability, policies and technology development priorities.
Sensing this need TIFAC and NITI Aayog have jointly developed an Agent-based tool for
analyzing the future penetration of electric two-wheelers in the country.
The tool was prepared based on the insights developed from extensive interactions of
NITI Aayog and TIFAC team members with stakeholders in the electric mobility sector
and detailed literature survey on various approaches adopted in other countries (e.g.,
USA, Germany and South Korea etc.) for forecasting the market penetration of electric
vehicles. Surveys on available vehicle specifications, future plans of vehicle manufacturers
for addition of manufacturing capacity of electric two-wheelers and consumer preference
for various attributes of two-wheelers provided us the foundation for the development
of this tool. It will help the governments, both central and states, to further frame their
policies building upon the success of FAME-I and FAME-II schemes.
The basic underlying principle of this Agent-based model is to simulate the decision
making of buyers. This is influenced by the attributes of the Agents, attributes of the
vehicles available as options and combination of prevailing economic, technological, policy
and market related factors. For an assessment of the distribution of consumer attributes, a
survey was conducted. Specifications of available two-wheelers of both propulsion types –
IC engine and electric were compiled and vehicles were classified into few categories.
Based on announced plans of setting up vehicle manufacturing facilities and charging
infrastructure an assessment of future production and availability of charging points was
made. This process included a judicious estimate of appropriate values for the years for
which no announced plans were available. Apart from the base level achieved this way,
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY Executive SummaryForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
2
two more levels of vehicle manufacturing and charging infrastructure were assumed and
used in the scenario analysis. Assumption on overall two-wheelers market volume in future
years was made based on the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of the Indian two-
wheelers market since 2015.
The tool has been used to create few possible scenarios that may unfold for the penetration
of electric two-wheelers in the country depending on various driving forces like technology,
economy, social and policy. A total of 8 quantitative scenarios were constructed on the
basis of three major factors that may influence the market penetration of electric two-
wheelers– demand incentives, cost of battery and vehicle performance in terms of range
and power (Figure 1). Each of these factors have two possible levels: demand incentive
can be either till FY 2024 or FY 2031; battery cost may reduce with CAGR of either 2%
or 8%; and the range and power either improves by 5 % annually during FY 2024 to
FY 2027 or remain same. However, for Technology Driven and Optimistic Scenarios, the
improvement in FY 2027 is assumed to be 10% in anticipation of the introduction of better
battery technology.
Demand
Incentive
Till
*Improvement in power and range by 10% in FY 2024 and 5% annually thereafter till FY 2027. In case of Technology
Driven and Optimistic Scenarios, the improvement in FY 2027 is by 10% due to better energy storage technology
Battery Cost
Reduction
Rate
Improvement in
Power and Range
from FY 2024*
Scenario
Name
Sub-scenarios
under Each
Scenario
Production Capacity and
Charging infra Level for Each
Sub-Scenario
Production
Levels
Charging
infra
Levels
AX, AY, AZ,  BX, BY, BZ,
CX, CY, CZ
A
Announced
Plan
X
Announced
Plan,
extrapolated
with CAGR
B
15% CAGR
after FY 2024
Y
Doubling of
infrastructure
FY2023
onward
Z
Trebling of
infrastructure
FY 2023
onward
C
20% CAGR
after FY 2024
Challenged
Difusion
Performance
Dirven
Low Battery
Cost
Technology
Driven
Incentive
Driven
Battery Cost
Challenged
Same
Performance
Optimistic
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes +
better
battery
Yes +
better
battery
FY
2024
FY
2031
2%
8%
2%
8%
Full
Constraint
Both production
and charging
infrastructure
Production
Constraint
Production
capacity
consideration
only
Charge
Constraint
charging
infrasture
considerations
only
No Constraint
Enough supply of
vehicles and
infrastructure
Figure 1: Scenarios, sub-scenarios and constraint levels analysed using the tool
For each of these 8 scenarios, four broad constraint levels were considered in terms
of installed vehicle manufacturing capacity and available charging infrastructure – Full
Constraint (both vehicle production and charging infrastructure are constraints), Production Executive SummaryForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
3
Constraint (only vehicle production capacity is constraint), Charge Constraint (only charging
infrastructure is constraint) and No Constraint. Three different levels were assumed both for
vehicle manufacturing capacity and charging infrastructure, with the base level estimated on
publicly made announcements and available information. For each scenario and constraint
level, projections were made for annual electric vehicle market penetration, total sale,
demand for charging points and annual battery demand for the electric two-wheelers.
The Full Constraint condition can be considered as the reference for each scenario, with
the sub-scenarios and other constraint conditions serving the purpose of getting insights
into the latent demand of electric two-wheelers, battery and charging points.
From the scenario analysis, it was found that in the Full Constraint scenarios with base
level of production capacity and charging infrastructure (Figure 2 and Table 1), it is possible
to achieve 100% penetration of electric two-wheelers. However, there will be a need for
enhancing the production capacity as sale of electric two-wheelers will otherwise be
limited to the available numbers and thus their relative market share will go down.
Results obtained from the Full Constraint Sub-Scenarios (base level of production and
infrastructure) under each of the eight Main Scenarios suggest that improvement in
technology and reduction in battery cost are crucial for self-sustenance of electric
mobility. With demand incentives withdrawn after FY 2024, maximum penetration is
in Technology Driven Scenario, which is 71.54%. With no technological improvement
and reduction in battery cost, penetration level of 21.86% only can be achieved even
if incentives are continued till FY 2031. Combination of technological improvement
and incentives can achieve 100% penetration.
Challenged Difusion
Performance Driven
Low Battery Cost
Technology Driven
Incentive Driven
Battery Cost Challenged
Same Performance
Optimistic
Market Penetration of Electric Two-Wheeler (in%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
2022
0.94
0.94 0.91
5.82
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
3.88
12.42
26.26
61.84
99.48100.0
98.11
92.73
87.65
Penetration of Electric Two Wheelers
(Full Constraint Sub-Scenario)
2.85
2.462.462.592.722.853.1
5.82
1.03
Figure 2: Market penetration of electric two-wheelers in various scenarios Executive SummaryForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
4
Table 1: Market penetration (%) of electric two-wheeler under Full Constraint
Sub-scenarios of various Main Scenarios
Financial
Year
Incentive withdrawn after FY 2024 Incentive remain throughout
Battery cost reduces
@2%
Battery cost
reduces @8%
Battery cost reduces
@2%
Battery cost
reduces @8%
Power,
Range
Same
Power,
Range
Improved
Power,
Range
Same
Power,
Range
Improved
Power,
Range
Same
Power,
Range
Improved
Power,
Range
Same
Power,
Range
Improved
Challenged
Diffusion
Performance
Driven
Low
Battery
Cost
Technology
Driven
Incentive
Driven
Battery
Cost
Challenged
Same
Perfor
mance
Optimistic
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 0.91 0.91 1.03 1.03 0.91 0.91 1.03 1.03
2023 3.88 3.88 5.82 5.82 3.88 3.88 5.82 5.82
2024 5.82 7.50 9.06 12.42 5.82 7.50 9.06 12.42
2025 2.85 4.40 5.43 9.31 7.37 11.64 13.45 26.26
2026 2.46 4.27 4.27 9.96 8.41 18.89 20.83 61.84
2027 2.46 4.92 4.66 13.58 9.70 34.28 38.55 99.48
2028 2.59 5.30 6.08 17.59 11.51 64.81 79.17 100
2029 2.72 5.56 7.24 25.49 13.58 97.54 98.11 98.11
2030 2.85 5.82 8.93 42.04 16.69 92.73 92.73 92.73
2031 3.10 7.12 11.00 71.54 21.86 87.65 87.65 87.65
The Optimistic Scenario, as per definition, requires a combination of all critical factors. The
battery cost should continue its downward trend with a CAGR of 8%, range and power
of the vehicles should increase by 20% by FY 2024 (due to technological progress) and
Demand Incentive should continue till FY 2031. Otherwise, there is a wide variation in
projected market penetration of electric two-wheelers among various scenarios. In case of
Challenged Diffusion Scenario, when most of conditions are assumed to be unfavorable,
the maximum market penetration of only 5.82% is achieved in FY 2024, which is followed
by a decline due to withdrawal of demand incentive and finally reaches 3.1% in FY 2031.
The projected sale of electric two-wheelers was found to be at a higher level in case
of four scenarios – Technology Driven, Battery Cost Challenged, Same Performance and
Optimistic (Figure 3). In the Optimistic Scenario, projected sale in FY 2031 is 220.15  lakh
units. On the other hand, in the Challenged Diffusion Scenario the sale is 9.85 lakh units
and 7.80 lakh units in financial years 2024 and 2031, respectively. In case of all the scenarios
when demand incentive was discontinued after FY 2024, there is an obvious impact
of the withdrawal on sale. The Incentive Driven Scenario, in which demand incentive is
assumed to continue throughout but with only 2% reduction of battery cost annually and
no improvement in range and performance, the electric two-wheelers sale achieved in
FY  2031 will be 54.91 lakh units, at a market penetration of 21.86%.
Projected sale of electric two-wheelers reaches the announced production level in
Optimistic, Same Performance and Battery Cost Challenged Scenarios even under
Full-Constraint conditions with base level production and infrastructure Executive SummaryForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
5
2022
200
150
100
50
0
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Sale (in Lakh of units)
Sale of Electric Two-Wheelers
(Full Constraint Sub-Scenario)
Challenged Difusion
Performance Driven
Low Battery Cost
Technology Driven
Incentive Driven
Battery Cost Challenged
Same Performance
Optimistic
1.441.37
6.219.85
5.1 4.664.93 5.496.1 6.76
7.8
21.02
47.03
117.15
199.41
212.08
220.15220.15220.15
9.31
1.561.44
Figure 3: Sale of electric two-wheelers in various scenarios
The projected battery demand in FY 2031 varies from 1.28 GWh in Challenged Diffusion
Scenario to 114.25 GWh in Optimistic Scenario (Figure 4).
Battery demand does not have a linear relationship with sale of electric two-wheelers.
In scenarios with favourable conditions, some of the buyers opt for vehicles with
bigger battery packs
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Demand for Battery (in GWh)
Battery Demand for Electric Two Wheelers
(Full Constraint Sub-Scenario)
Challenged Difusion
Performance Driven
Low Battery Cost
Technology Driven
Incentive Driven
Battery Cost Challenged
Same Performance
Optimistic
0.29
0.290.24
1.59
0.211.111.680.8 0.740.780.890.991.091.28
6.26
18.95
53.58
91.17
101.19
109.0
111.95
114.66
Figure 4: Battery demand in various scenarios Executive SummaryForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
6
While analyzing market penetration of electric two-wheelers, it has been considered that
all the charging points will not be dedicated to only two-wheelers only and utilization
of charging points will also not be 100%. The utilization is expected to increase over
the years. Considering these facts, the total requirement of charging points in FY 2031
is projected to vary from 29639 units in Challenged Diffusion Scenario to 774746 units
in Optimistic Scenario (Figure 5). However, these are for Full Constraint condition, when
available infrastructure and production capacity may restrict the sale.
Projection of charging infrastructure is cumulative and meant for all kind of light
electric vehicles including electric two-wheelers. The utilization factor of charging
infrastructure also increases with increasing penetration of electric vehicles. The shapes
of demand curves for charging infrastructure, therefore, are different from sale curves
Challenged Difusion
Performance Driven
Low Battery Cost
Technology Driven
Incentive Driven
Battery Cost Challenged
Same Performance
Optimistic
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Requirement of Charging Infrastructure
(Full Constraint Sub-Scenario)
Number of Charging Points (in thousands)
19.08
1.3114.51
26.16
14.3620.9326.9326.7425.5724.9825.2626.227.6229.64
123.1
262.88
432.38
585.66
737.37
890.71
1050.66
Figure 5: Requirement of charging points in various scenarios
Certain hypothetical conditions were also analyzed for each of these scenarios. They
include  – Production Constraint (no limitation of charging infrastructure and consumers
do not consider this aspect in their purchase decision), Charge Constraint (enough vehicles
are available) and No Constraint (neither vehicle production nor charging infrastructure
pose any hurdle). The results of such sub-scenarios are also presented in the report. Executive SummaryForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
7
It was observed that the demand for electric two-wheelers surpasses assumed base
production under the No Constraint Sub-scenarios of Battery Cost Challenged, Same
Performance and Optimistic Scenarios. Similar cross-over is observed in case of Charge
Constraint Sub-scenarios of Battery Cost Challenged and Optimistic Scenarios.
One notable conclusion from this analysis is the significance of technology development
initiatives to improve performance and reducing cost of the vehicles. Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India 8
1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 High Level of Petroleum Imports
The road transport sector is heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels and procurement
of crude oil has increased significantly over the years. As per the data available from
the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas
(MoPNG), the amount of imported crude oil has increased 5.7 folds during a period of
22-years from 1998-99 to 2019.
Import in thousand metric ton
1999-00 2005-06 2012-13 2019-20
Import of Crude Petroleum: Amount
(Source: PPAC, Ministry of Petroleum and Natual Gas)
Financial Year
225000
200000
175000
150000
125000
100000
75000
50000
FAME-I
launched
FAME-II
launched
COVID-19
pandemic
Figure 6: Quantities of crude oil import
In the economic terms, the value of total crude oil import was Rs.14917 crore during 1998-99
and reached to Rs.783193 crore during 2018-19. In the year 2019-20 it was Rs.717001 crore
(Figure 6). IntroductionForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
9
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
1999-00 2005-06 2012-13 2019-20
Import of Crude Petroleum: Value
(Source: PPAC, Ministry of Petroleum and Natual Gas)
Financial Year
FAME-I
launched
FAME-II
launched
COVID-19
pandemic
Import in Rs. Crore and Million US Dollar
Rs. Cr
Million US Dollar
Figure 7: Amount spent towards crude oil import
The large amount spent towards petroleum import has significant impact on India’s overall
Balance of Trade. As per the World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS) database, total
imports by India in the year 2019 were worth over USD 478 billion, whereas total exports
were worth USD 323 billion, implying a negative trade balance of over USD 153 billion.
The share of petroleum products in total imports since FY 2015 shown in the Figure 7,
where it can be seen that petroleum products contributed significantly in overall import.
During the FY 2021-22 (till February) India’s total import bill was USD 551,155 million and
contribution of petroleum was USD 128,930 million (23.39%). Further, the petroleum market
is volatile and there has been significant increase in petroleum prices in recent times.
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
2015
Petroleum
Other
2016 20172018 20192020 20212022
India - Petroleum and Total Imports
(Source: Ministry of Commerce)
Financial Year
Import in Million USD
Figure 8: Share of petroleum products in India’s total import IntroductionForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
10
1.2 Fossil Fuel –Market Volatility, Future Uncertainties and
Environmental Concerns
The fossil fuel market has been volatile in the recent past (Figure 8) and the crude
prices have reached onerous heights several times during the last few decades, threatening
economic progress of many countries. Since the price and availability of crude oil are
dependent on many extraneous factors including geopolitical scenario, it is desirable to
reduce dependence on them. Moreover, many studies indicate that the petroleum reserves
are limited and in the long run all economies will have to shift to the alternative energy
sources.
01224364860728496108120
Month
132144156168180192204216228240252264
Trends in Crude Oil Price (Indian Basket) Since April 2000
(Source: PPAC, Ministry of Petroleum and Natual Gas)
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Crude Price ($/bbl)
Figure 9: Variation of international crude prices (Indian basket)
Apart from price and availability, another compelling reason to move towards alternative
fuels is the environmental concern. Emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels are the
main reason behind the deterioration of local air quality and overall climate disbalance.
Globally, policy measures towards tackling the environmental problems in the road
transport sector are mainly focused on effecting stringent emission norms and encouraging
improvements in existing IC engine technologies. However, such improvements in IC engine
technologies and fuel quality have become increasingly difficult and costly. Factors such as
increase in vehicle numbers, weight of the vehicles, size of the engines, travel frequency
and trip length etc. have further aggravated the problem and at the present situation,
a radical shift is desirable than the just incremental technology improvements. Electric
mobility can be an effective solution in such a situation. IntroductionForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
11
India signed the Paris Agreement in 2015 and committed to reduce its carbon footprint by
33-35% below 2005 levels by 2030, along with increasing the share of non-fossil fuel-based
electricity to 40%. This target of reducing carbon foot-print was further revised to 45%
by 2030 in the COP26. During the conference the Prime Minister of India also announced
that India will achieve net-zero emissions by 2070 through adopting ‘Panchamrita’, a five-
fold strategy:
India will get its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 giga-watt by 2030
India will meet 50 per cent of its energy requirements till 2030 with renewable
energy
India will reduce its projected carbon emission by one billion tonnes by 2030
India will reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by 45 per cent by 2030
India will achieve net zero by 2070
1.3 Importance of Two-wheelers
The Indian vehicle market is primarily dominated by the two-wheelers with more than 70%
of the registered vehicles currently falling under this category (Figure 9). Thus, any effort
to address the problems associated with the fossil fuels in the transport sector needs to
have a major focus on their use in these vehicles. Figure 9 shows the year-wise vehicle
share data from 1951 onwards, indicating the continuous increasing share of two-wheelers.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year
2000 2010 2020
Modal Share of Registered Vehicles
(Source: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways)
Modal Share (%)
Bus
Car
Three Wheeler
Two Wheeler
Goods Vehicle
Stif rise in two wheeler share
Figure 10: Share of various categories of registered vehicles in India IntroductionForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
12
1.4 Government Initiatives on Electric Mobility
Government has decided to push forward the use of electric vehicles in the country. The
National Mission on Electric Mobility was approved in 2011 and its plan, called the National
Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP 2020), was released in 2013. In April 2015, the
Faster Adoption of Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric Vehicles in India (FAME India) was
launched as a part of the mission. This scheme had three components – demand subsidy,
infrastructure and R&D support. The first phase of FAME scheme continued till 31 March
2019 and the second phase, termed as FAME-II, was launched on 01 April 2019. FAME-II
aims to strengthen the electric vehicle manufacturing ecosystem in the country through
demand incentives, establishment of network of charging stations and administration of
schemes including publicity and IEC (Information, Education and Communication) activities.
Maximum number of electric two-wheelers to receive demand incentives will be 10,00000
and they need to have maximum ex-factory cost of Rs.1.5 lakh. The incentive applicable
for electric two-wheelers is Rs.15,000 per kWh of battery capacity, maximum up to 40%
of the vehicle cost.
Table 2: Incentives Applicable for Various Categories of Vehicles as per FAME-II
Sr.
No.
Vehicle Segment
Maximum
Number
of vehicles
to be
supported
Approximate
size of
battery in
KWH
Total
Approximate
Incentive @
10000/KWH for
all vehicles and
20000/KWh for
Buses and Trucks
Maximum
Ex-Factory
price
to avail
incentive
Total Fund
support
from DHI
1.
Registered
e-2 Wheelers
100000 2 KWH Rs.20000/- Rs.1.5 LakhsRs.2000 Cr.
2.
Registered e-3
Wheelers (including
eRikshaws
500000 5 KWH Rs.50000/- Rs.5 LakhRs.2500 Cr.
3.e-4 Wheelers 35000 15 KWH Rs.150000/- Rs.15 LakhRs.525 Cr.
4.
4W Strong Hybrid
Vehicle
20000 1.3 KWH Rs.13000/- Rs.15 LakhsRs.26 Cr.
5.e-Bus7090 250 KWH Rs.50 Lakhs Rs.2 Cr.Rs.3545 Cr.
Total Demand IncentiveRs.8596 Cr.
Source: FAME-II Gazette Notification
In June 2017, the basic custom duty and GST were reduced and rationalized on electric
vehicles, its assemblies/sub-assemblies and parts/sub-parts/inputs of the sub-assemblies.
In January 2019, the government further reduced and rationalized the basic custom duty.
Subsequently, the National Mission on Transformative Mobility and Battery Storage was
launched to recommend and devise strategies for transformative mobility and phased
manufacturing programs for EVs, EV components and batteries.
A phased manufacturing roadmap for the electric vehicles and components/subsystems
has been prepared keeping in view the present status of the ecosystem in the country. IntroductionForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
13
This envisages promotion of indigenous manufacturing of (i) electric vehicles (ii) their
assemblies/sub-assemblies and components etc. through a graded duty structure. The
intention is to increase the value addition and capacity building within the country in a
sustainable manner. The Phased Manufacturing Programme was notified in March 2019
and it will enable the manufacturers to plan their investments.
The government has recently also approved the Production Linked Incentive Scheme (PLI)
for manufacturing of Advance Chemistry Cell (ACC) in the country. Further, 4 successful
bidders have been selected for a total capacity of 50 GWh.
In addition to above initiatives, following actions have also been taken by the government
to ensure the success of its electric mobility efforts:
Amendments in Urban Regional Development Plans Formulation and
Implementation Guidelines (URDPFI-2014) for Establishing Electric Vehicle
Charging Infrastructure by Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs.
Amendments in Model Building Byelaws (MBBL-2016) for Electric Vehicle Charging
Infrastructure by Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs
Guidelines and Standards for Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicle by
Ministry of Power
Development of Indian Standards for electrotechnical aspects of totally or partly
electrically propelled road vehicles by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) and
Department of Science and Technology (DST).
Exemption of electric vehicles from the payment of fees for issue or renewal of
registration certificates
1.5 Importance and Prospects of EV Two-wheelers
In terms of various categories of vehicles, the two-wheeler segment is most promising
for electrification because the prices of electric two-wheelers have become competitive
with that of IC engine counterparts in recent times due to supporting policies of the
Government of India. Such vehicles can also be served by relatively low power chargers
and the growth trajectory of this industry appears to be promising.
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Financial Year
Number of EV Two 
Wheelers Sold
EV Two Wheelers Sale in India
(Source: SMEV)
Figure 11: EV Two-wheelers Sale in India IntroductionForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
14
1.6 Need for Analysis of EV Two-wheelers Penetration
Electrification of road transportation is not merely an incremental change towards a better
technology but involves a paradigm shift in terms of the ecosystem, supply of energy,
manufacturing and even behavioral changes in the society at large. For such a fundamental
transition, there are many aspects of policies and planning that can be better understood
with a prior knowledge on the likely scenarios of the penetration of electric vehicles.
Adoption of electric vehicles, to a large extent, will depend on the presence of appropriate
ecosystem and policies. Such vehicles require adequate charging infrastructure, which is
totally different from the infrastructure requirement of the existing IC engine vehicles.
While availability of adequate charging infrastructure will have positive impact on adoption
of electric vehicles, its underutilization at a low level of EV penetration may be a serious
problem for the relevant stakeholders. Appropriate planning for rolling out the charging
infrastructure can thus play an important role in this regard.
Since electric vehicles are charged from the power supplied by the electricity grid,
they may have impact on its performance, particularly at the distribution level, in terms
of additional power demand and power quality. Issues such as harmonics, powerline
congestion, transformer overloading may affect the life of various grid assets. The power
demand from the electric vehicles is not usually considered in the long-term plans of the
utilities. To take this into consideration, the utilities will require probabilistic estimates of
the future level of penetration of electric vehicles.
In such a scenario, it becomes important for all the stakeholders to understand the
trajectory of electric vehicles penetration in the next few years, so that the industry may
take suitable decisions to augment their manufacturing capabilities and government could
take affirmative decisions to support the growth.
This is further important to simultaneously plan for the creation of necessary charging,
delivery and servicing infrastructure for the vehicles and production of critical components
like batteries.
Thus, various stakeholders such as policymakers, electric utilities, charging station planners
and battery manufacturers can benefit from an agent-based tool that models the EV
ecosystem and enables exploration of ‘what-if’ scenarios. Table 3 enlists some of the
possible uses of this tool.
Table 3: Use of the present tool for various stakeholders
Stakeholders Use of the Tool
Policy Makers
Estimating the impacts of different policies on the adoption of electric 2/3
wheelers.
Electric UtilitiesPlan for strengthening the power distribution grid and estimating demands
Charging Station
Planners
Estimating spatial and temporal changes in electrical loads resulting from
different levels of EV adoption and different EV technologies
Battery
Manufacturers
Determining how battery sizes will affect EV adoption and electrical load IntroductionForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
15
TIFAC and NITI Aayog jointly took up the task of developing such an agent-based model
for forecasting penetration of electric two-wheelers in India where the purchase decisions
taken by the customers have been simulated based on their various attributes and relevant
input conditions.
It is felt that availability of this model will help the stakeholders to do a scenario analysis
of the sector for various combinations of technological, policy related and market related
assumptions to make necessary changes in their decisions.
In the following sections, while at one end developmental schematics have been briefly
discussed, on the other, analyses of a few plausible scenarios have also been presented. Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India 16
2
ABOUT
THE TOOL
2.1 Modeling Principles
Firstly, an Agent-based model has been developed to simulate the behavior of individual
actors (so-called Agents) which can effectively capture their interactions and mutual
influences among themselves and with the associated ecosystem. This enables an in-depth
analysis of the complex adaptive system and the forces that set the trajectory of their
evolution. For example, it can provide an idea of how the system could evolve in different
institutional frameworks, policies on incentive structures and technology development
scenarios. Effectively, this is a bottom-up system approach that enables one to understand
the possible futures based on interactions between agents and environment.
In the context of electric mobility, the possible agents are consumers, government, vehicle
manufacturers, charging system operators and fuel producers etc. Inclusion of agents
other than consumers, however, gives the user less control on estimating the sensitivity
of EV adoption towards the policies, plans or decisions adopted by such actors. Hence,
the current model is designed to analyze the impacts of different policies, plans and EV
technologies that are exogenous to the tool, whereas consumers represent the agents
whose decisions are simulated.
Each agent (customer) is characterized by a set of attributes such as age, income and daily
travel distance etc. The purchase decision of the agent is influenced by these attributes
as well as the exogenous factors. The process of creating such agents with defined sets
of attributes is described in Figure 12. Agent attributes are created as correlated random
variables following the given statistical distributions, which can directly be given to the
model as inputs for scenario analysis. However, for several attributes, a consumer survey
helps to have a realistic idea about the possible distributions. About the ToolForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
17
Agent Attributes
(Survey Data)
Statistical
Distribution
Agent Population
(Synthesized)
Correlation
Matrix
Figure 12: Creation of agent population
The correlation matrix for the agent attributes is derived from the data obtained from
this consumer survey. Table 4 provides a brief description of the agent attributes used in
the model.
Table 4: Agent attributes used in the model
Sl. No.Agent Attribute Description
1.IncomeTotal annual income of the household
2. AgeAge of the Agent
3. Economic Weight
Relative weightage given by the buyer to the price of the
vehicle
4. Range Weight
Relative weightage given by the buyer to the maximum
distance that the vehicle can travel with a single charge of the
battery
5. Fuel Economy Weight
Relative weightage given by the buyer to the energy
consumption by the vehicle per km
6. Power Weight
Relative weightage given by the buyer to the maximum power
of the vehicle
7. Easy Refueling Weight
Relative weightage given by the buyer to the convenience of
recharging/refueling the battery/fuel tank of the vehicle
8. Emission Weight
Relative weightage given by the buyers to the environmental
performance of the vehicle in terms of exhaust emissions
9. Popularity Weight
Relative weightage given by the buyer to a category of vehicle
based on its market share
10.Maximum Expenditure
Maximum amount the consumer is willing to spend to purchase
a vehicle
11.
Willingness to Pay
More
The additional amount in terms of percentage that the buyer is
willing to pay for an environment-friendly vehicle
12.Daily Travel DistanceAverage distance that the buyer travels with the vehicle About the ToolForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
18
Variables related to EV ecosystem can be used to create various scenarios which are
listed in Table 5.
Table 5: Scenario defining variables
Sl. No.Variable DescriptionDefault
1.Gasoline PriceGasoline price in terms of Rs.
A starting value of Rs.95.40/litre
and CAGR of 3.48% are assumed
for the duration 2021 to 2030
2.
Cost of
Electricity
Electricity price per unit in terms of
Rs.
A starting value of Rs.7/unit is
assumed and the price is assumed
to have a CAGR of 2.5% throughout
the duration 2021 to 2030
3.Discount Rate
Rate of return used to determine the
time value of money
7.75%
4.Battery Life
Service life of the battery for the
electric vehicle application
8 years
5.Battery CostCost of battery in terms of Rs./kWhRs.10000/- kWh
6.
Battery Cost
Reduction
Rate (CAGR)
Rate at which the cost of the battery
reduces over the years due to scale
of manufacturing and technological
improvements etc.
8% (reduction)
The following parameters (Table 6) were assumed to be constant throughout the simulation
period.
Table 6: Constant parameters
Sl. No.Parameter DescriptionValue
1.Charging Power
The amount of power delivered by the charging
system to the electric vehicles battery. The power is
assumed to remain constant during charging.
7 kW
2.
Hours of Charger
Operation
Number of hours during which the public charging
system offers its service during the day
14 hours
3.
Average Life of
Charging Systems
Life of a 7.4 kW electric vehicle charging system 15 years
This work also uses a refueling effect variable to incorporate the utilization and acceptability
of public charging stations that is assumed to increase with the market share of EVs.
Features of the model include:
Projection of required charging infrastructure/effect of inadequate charging
infrastructure
Effect of subsidy withdrawal in a given year
Effect of technological parameters such as battery life and battery specific energy
Option for considering announced and anticipated production plans by OEMs/
demand-supply gap
2.2 Agent Decision Making
For each year during the simulation period, a set of Agents is generated, which represents
the buyers of two-wheelers in that specific year. Each Agent takes a decision on which About the ToolForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
19
vehicle to purchase based on his/her individual heterogeneous attributes and the
specifications of the IC engine and electric vehicles available in the market. A set of
utility functions are defined and the Agents evaluate these utility functions. The overall
utility function is a weighted sum of all these utilities and the weights are also defined
based on agent preferences. The overall process of Agent decision making is described
schematically in Figure 13.
The Agents first shortlist the vehicles that they can afford to buy based on their prices in
the year when decision is being taken. Prices of IC engine and electric vehicles in a given
year are determined based on the assumed rate of change of their manufacturing prices
and the applicable subsidies and taxes assumed for the given year. The price reduction
of electric vehicles in the coming years is assumed to be mainly driven by the reduction
in the battery prices.
Each Agent evaluates the shortlisted vehicles in terms of their utilities. The overall utility of a
vehicle for an Agent is a function of a set of utilities and associated weights. These include
Economic, Power, Environment, Popularity, Range and Refueling utilities. The evaluation of the
overall utility varies depending on the assumed scenario. In the No Constraint or Production
Constraint scenarios only the first four utilities are considered and the Refueling utility is
only included in the Charge Constrained and Full Constrained sub-scenarios. Definitions of
each of the utilities and their associated weights are provided in the next section.
Start
End
Repeat for 
each agent
Repeat for
each year
Read scenario variables, market trends,
technology trends and policy assumptions
Present Status EV Stock, ICV Stock, EV Sale,
ICV Sale Petrol Price and Electricity Tarif
Create specific number of Agents with 
defined distribution of Agent attributes
Update vehicle price considering battery
price, applicable subsidy and taxes
Identify the vehicle with highest utility 
and purchase
Evaluation of Utility and Weights of vehicles
(Economic, Power, Refuelling, Environmental,
Range and Market Presence)
Calculate number of EV and IC engine vehicles
purchased, market share and stock for each,
required charging infrastructure and charge
coverage ratio
Short-list the vehicles which are afordable
Figure 13: Agent decision making process About the ToolForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
20
2.3 Equations for Agent Decision Making
It is assumed that the price of the internal combustion engine vehicle remains constant
throughout the forecasting period. However, the price of the electric vehicle is expected
to reduce in the coming years, with reduction in battery cost being the main contributor.
On an average, the battery contributes 40% of the total vehicle cost and accordingly the
rate at which the vehicle manufacturing cost will reduce can be assumed to be 40% of
the rate of reduction of the battery cost.
The price of petroleum and electricity tariff are both assumed to increase in the coming
years. However, the rate of increase of electricity price will be less than that of petroleum.
Fuel price in a given year is estimated based on the present cost and the rate of its
increase.
The total capital cost to the buyer is the sum of the price of the vehicle and the cost of
infrastructure, if applicable. Infrastructure cost is applicable for a consumer only if she/he
decides to install a home charger that is priced. Slow chargers are often provided by the
vehicle manufacturers without any additional cost. If the user is dependent only on the
public charging points, no infrastructure cost is applicable.
The total operational cost is the sum of fuel cost, maintenance cost and annual tax. Among
these, the first two are derived from the corresponding per km values and the average
annual distance travelled by the user.
In a specific year, the Annual Charging Energy Demand for electric vehicles is obtained by
summing up the energy required for covering the annual travel distance by each individual
electric vehicle that is on the road in that year (already existing and purchased during
the year).
Based on the above discussions, the mathematical representation of various parameters
used in the tool are given below.
The manufacturing price of the vehicle at present
=
+
0
0
1
100
vehicle
man
C
C
GST
Where C
vehicle0
is the ex-showroom price of the vehicle at present, GST is the applicable
GST in per cent.
Ex-showroom price of the vehicle after n years

= −−

1
100
n
vp
vehicle mansub sub
r
C CCx
Where C
man
is the manufacturing cost, r
vp
is the rate of reduction of vehicle manufacturing
cost, n is the number of years, C
sub
is the amount of applicable subsidy and x
sub
is a
Boolean variable representing existence or absence of subsidy. If subsidy is offered,
x
sub
= 1 otherwise it is 0. About the ToolForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
21
Price of fuel in a given year

= +


,0
1
100
n
fuel
fuel n fuel
r
CC
Where C
fuel0
is the fuel price in the start-year, r
fuel
is the rate of increase of fuel price where
n is the number of years.
Capital expenses for the vehicle
C
cap
= C
vehicle
+ C
infra
x
infra
Where C
infra
is the cost of required infrastructure and x
infra
is a Boolean variable indicating
presence (1) or absence (0) of infrastructure.
Operating expenditure
C
opex
= (C
fuel
E
fuel
+ C
maint
)d
annual
+ C
tax
Where E
fuel
is the amount of fuel/energy required per km, C
maint
is the maintenance cost on
per-km basis, d
annual
is the annual distance travelled by the vehicle and C
tax
is the annual
tax on the vehicle.
The cost due to the replacement of battery during the lifetime of the vehicle is perceived
by the buyer with respect to the battery cost at the time of the purchase of the vehicle
and the number of times battery replacement may be required during the vehicle lifetime.


= −

1
100
n
batred
batrep batrep bat
r
C np
Where, n
batrep
is the anticipated number of battery replacements, p
bat
is the present price
of the battery, r
batred
is the CAGR of cost reduction of battery and n is the time in years
till the time of purchase of the vehicle.
Net present value of total capital and operational costs as perceived by the buyer
C
npv
= C
opex
n
l
+ C
cap
+ C
batrep
Where C
batrep
is the total cost of battery replacements throughout vehicle life (n
l
) and r
d

is the discount rate for time value of money.
Various Utility Functions are evaluated by Agents using above parameters for taking a
vehicle purchase decision. These are defined below.
Economic Utility
=
, minnpv
econ
npv
c
U
c
for IC engine vehicle
=

−

, min
100
npv
econ
exsh wtpm
npv
c
U
cp
c

for electric vehicle
Where C
npv, min
is the minimum net present value among all vehicle options considered by
the Agent, C
exsh
is the ex-showroom price of the vehicle and p
wtpm
is the extra amount in About the ToolForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
22
terms of per cent of vehicle cost that the Agent is willing to pay extra for environment-
friendly vehicle.
In case of electric vehicles, the consumer willingness to pay more has been reflected.
Otherwise, both the equations are same.
Power Utility
=
, max
vehicle
power
vehicle
P
U
P
Where P
vehicle
is the power of the vehicle, P
vehicle, max
is the power of the vehicle that offers
maximum power among all vehicles under consideration.
Range Utility

=
max
min , 1
vehicle
range
d
U
d
Where d
vehicle
is the range of the vehicle, d
max
is the maximum range among all the vehicles
being considered by the Agent. It may be noted that the maximum value of Range Utility
is 1, hence the minimum function is used in the equation.
Environmental Utility
U
evn
= 1 for EV, 0 for ICEV
It is assumed that the environmental utility of IC engine vehicle is 0 and it is 1 for electric
vehicles.
Recharge Utility
U
recharge
= 1 for IC engine vehicles

=


m 1in
€
,
ch vehicle
daily
U
d
d
recha rge

for electric vehicles
Where, €
ch
is the Charge Coverage ratio in the previous year and d
daily
is the average
distance travelled in a day.
Popularity Utility
=
100
marketv
pop
f
U
Where f
marketev
is the market share of electric vehicles in percent in the previous year.
Weightage given to various Utilities by the Agent, used in the model have been calculated
based on the consumer survey, in which respondents were asked to rate several parameters
on a scale of 10 as per their preference. The relative weightages are then calculated as
follows:
Weightage to economic utility
=
++ + + +(R)
econ
econ
econ pop range power easyrefuel env
R
W
R RR R R About the ToolForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
23
Weightage to popularity (market presence)
=
++ + + +()
pop
pop
econ pop range power easyrefuel env
R
W
R RR R R R
Weightage to range
=
++ + + +()
range
range
econ pop range power easyrefuel env
R
W
R RR R R R
Weightage to power
=
++ + + +()
power
power
econ pop range power easyrefuel env
R
W
R RR R R R
Weightage to easy refuel
=
++ + + +()
easyrefuel
easyrefuel
econ pop range power easyrefuel env
R
W
R RR R R R
Where, R
econ
, R
pop
, R
range
, R
easyrefuel
, and R
env
are ratings given by the survey respondents to
vehicle price, popularity (market presence), range, power, easy refueling and environment-
friendliness, respectively. Since in the model there is one utility covering all economic
aspects (net present value of sum of vehicle price, fuel costs and tax etc. during vehicle
lifetime), it was felt reasonable to assume that the survey respondent’s rating of vehicle
price represents weightage given to the economic utility.
The total vehicle Utility in a particular scenario will thus finally be calculated by the Agent
as under
No Constrained and Production Constrained conditions:
U
total
= W
econ
U
econ
+ W
pop
U
pop
+ W
power
U
power
+ W
range
U
range
+ W
env
U
env
In the Charge Constrained and Full Constrained conditions:
U
total
= W
price
U
econ
+ W
pop
U
pop
+ W
power
U
power
+ W
range
U
range
+ W
easyrefuel
U
recharge
+ W
env
U
env
2.4 Aggregating Agent Decisions
Strategies adopted for aggregation of the decisions of the Agents to estimate overall
market penetration of the electric two-wheelers depend on the scenarios considered.
The tool developed provides four broad scenarios as mentioned below. These are further
explained in detail later in section 4.
Full Constrained Condition: Under this condition both availability of charging infrastructure
and production capacity of electric two-wheelers pose constraints to the maximum
penetration level and total sale.
Production Constrained Condition: In this condition it is assumed that there are enough
number of charging points always available to ensure that users do not face any
inconvenience. Hence vehicle production level is the only constraint in this scenario. About the ToolForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
24
Charge Constrained Condition: It is assumed that there is enough supply of vehicles in the
market to meet the demand, irrespective of the installed production capacity. So, charging
infrastructure is the only constraint in this case.
No Constraint Condition: It is assumed that there are enough supplies of both vehicles
and charging points.
Demand for electric two-wheelers is given by:
=
ev sale
evdem
agent
nN
N
N
Where n
ev
is the total number of agents choosing electric two-wheeler during the year,
N
sale
and N
agent
are the total number of two-wheelers sold during the year and the number
of Agents in the simulation, respectively.
Average annual energy consumption of the batch of the electric vehicles chosen by the
Agents during the year
=
vbatch
avev
agent
E
E
N
Where, E
vbatch
is the total energy consumption by the electric two-wheelers purchased by
the Agents
Energy that can be supplied by the planned charging installations
E
chgplan
= 365N
chgplan
P
chg
t
chg
f
chgut
x
tw
Where,
N
chgplan
is the number of charging points planned to be installed till the year
P
chg
is the power output of each charging point,
t
chg
is the time of operation of the charging points,
f
chgut
is the utilization factor of the charging points and
x
tw
is the fraction of the total energy supplied by charging points that is available for
two-wheelers.
The total number of electric two-wheelers that can be supported by the charging
infrastructure planned till the year i (total number of active charging points as per the plan)
−
=
= − ∑
1
,
1
i
chplan
evchplanev k
kpub avev
E
NN
xE
Where, x
pub
is the share of public charging points in the total energy demand for charging
of all electric two-wheelers and x
tw
is the share of two-wheelers in the energy required
for charging of all electric vehicles.
The number of electric two-wheelers sold in a particular year (i)
N
ev, i
= min(N
evdem
N
evprod
, N
evchplan
) in the Full Constrained condition
N
ev, i
= min(N
evdem
, N
evprod
) in the Production Constrained condition About the ToolForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
25
N
ev, i
= min(N
evdem
, N
evchplan
) in the Charge Constrained condition
N
ev, i
= N
evdem
in the No Constraint condition
Where N
evprod
is the number of electric two-wheelers planned to be produced during the
year under consideration.
2.5 Equations for Estimation of Charging Infrastructure and
Battery Demands
Annual energy demand by all electric vehicles at present (N
ev0
) in the market is estimated
by assuming an average energy consumption of 0.017 kWh/km and average annual travel
distance (d
annualav
) estimated based on the consumer survey responses.
E
ev0
= 0.017 N
ev0
d
annualav
For subsequent years during the simulation, the total annual energy demand by the electric
vehicles chosen by the agents is determined by
=
=∑
1
ev
n
evbatch i i
i
E ed
Where n
ev
is the total number of agents choosing electric two-wheelers during the year
and e
i
and d
i
are the per km energy consumption and annual travel distance, respectively,
of the vehicle i.
This energy consumption value is then scaled up proportionately to estimate the annual
energy demand by all the new electric vehicles sold during the year (N
ev
)
=
evbatch ev
ev
ev
EN
E
n
The annual energy demand by the total stock of electric vehicles present during the year
−
= +
,
,,1
,
evbatch ev i
evstock ievstock i
ev i
EN
EE
n
Here the subscripts i corresponds to the year under consideration and i – 1 corresponds
to the previous year. E
evstock
represents the total stock of electric two-wheelers.
The annual energy demand by the new electric vehicles considering latent demands
=
evbatch evdem
evlat
ev
EN
E
n
The total annual energy demand by the stock of electric vehicles considering latent
demands
−
=+
,,
,,1
,
evbatch i evdem i
evlat ievstock i
ev i
EN
EE
n
The subscripts i and i – 1 represent the year under consideration and the previous year,
respectively. About the ToolForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
26
The number of charge points required in the initial year
=
0
0
365
ev
chpt
tw chgut chg chg
E
N
xf t P
Total number of charging points needed in operation in year i
=
,
,
365
evstock i
chg i
tw chgut chg chg
E
N
xf P t
Actual installed charging points for the Full Constraint or Charge Constraint conditions:
N
chginst,i
= N
chgplan,i
if N
chg,i
> N
chgplan,i
N
chginst,i
= max(N
chginst,i–1,
N
chg
) if N
chg
≤ N
chgplan
In case of Production Constraint or No Constraint conditions:
N
chginst
= N
chgplan
if N
chg
> N
chgplan
N
chginst,i
= max(N
chginst,i–1,
N
chg
) if N
chg
≤ N
chgplan
Energy supplied by the installed charging points
E
chg
= 365 N
chg
P
chg
t
chg
The variable, Charge Coverage Ratio, is defined as follows:

=

€ min , 1
chg
ch
ev
E
E

in Full Constrained scenario

=

€ min , 1
chgplan
ch
ev
E
E

in Charge Constrained scenario
€
ch
= 1 in Production Constrained or No Constrained scenario
Where, f
ev
is the share of electric two-wheelers in total two-wheeler population, in fraction. Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India 27
CONSUMER
PREFERENCES3
3.1 EV Two-Wheeler Consumer Survey
A consumer survey was conducted with the two main objectives: (i) to get the statistical
distribution of the agent attributes and (ii) to get the correlation among these attributes.
While it is possible for the users to define the statistical distributions of agent attributes
on their own, thereby, creating a desired scenario, in this report the distributions obtained
from the survey results have been followed. The correlation matrix obtained from the
survey has been used in the model as a default. However, defining a new correlation matrix
will also be possible. It needs to be noted that the projected level of penetration of the
electric two-wheelers is not directly obtained from the response to any specific question.
Survey form was sent to about 2000 persons and about 260 responses were received.
The respondents represent various income groups and age and are from various states of
India. After cleaning up the data, 140 inputs have been used. There is, however, a scope
for conducting a survey at a larger scale to generate necessary input data for this model.
3.2 Agent Attributes
From the statistical analysis of the consumer survey data, it was observed that all the
12  Agent attributes selected can be represented by 3-parameter lognormal distribution.
Hence the model creates required number of agents either based on consumer survey
data or based on parameters of the lognormal distribution for all the Agent attributes
provided in the model as input.
Since some of the values obtained in responses to consumer survey were unrealistic, the
data was cleaned by removing such values. Agent Attributes for which such criteria had
to be applied are described in Table 7. Consumer PreferencesForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
28
Table 7: Lower and upper limits of some Agent Attributes
Sl. No. Agent AttributeMinimum ValueMaximum Value
1. IncomeRs. 50000 per annum Rs.150 lakh per annum
2. Age1865
3. Maximum Expenditure Rs.35,000Rs. 8,00,000
4. Willingness to Pay More (%) 0 (unwilling)40
5. Daily Travel Distance 1 km100 km
By fitting the sample data to three-parameter lognormal distribution, the parameters of
the distribution of all the Agent Attributes were obtained and these were used to create
Attributes of the desired number of Agents. The Cumulative Density Functions (CDF) of
the sample data and the fitted data are shown in Figure 14,.
Good fit between Cumulative Density Functions of the modelled and sample data in
following graphs suggest that the distributions of Agent Attributes taken for analysis
are representative of real-life situations
Cumulative Density Functions: Sample and Fitted
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
Income
0.8 1.0
1e7
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10
EconRate
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10
RangeRate
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10
EasyRefuel
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10
PowerRate
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
0
MaxExpend
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Popularity
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Daily Travel
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
010203040506070
Age
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10
FuelEconRate
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10
Emission
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0510152025303540
Fitted CDF
Sample CDF
WTPM
Figure 14: CDF of Agent Attributes - sample and fitted Consumer PreferencesForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
29
3.3 Correlation Matrix
For representing a real-life scenario, there needs to be certain correlation among the
various Agent Attributes, described by a correlation matrix. The correlation coefficients
between the attributes were estimated from the survey results. The correlation matrix
obtained is shown in Figure 15.
The correlation matrix is important to ensure that the synthesized Agent Attributes in
the model have similar inter-relationships as in the real-life survey data
Figure 15: Correlation matrix for Agent Attributes obtained from survey responses
3.4 Created Agents
A total of 1000 Agents were created based on the correlation matrix among Agent
Attributes and probability density functions of the Agent Attributes. Two different
approaches are possible, first by using probability density functions from the survey results
and second by defining the distribution parameters. However, since some of the created
Agents had attributes whose values were not within the ranges as mentioned in Table 6,
such Agents were screened out. Figures 16 and 17 show the histograms of created Agent
Attributes.
The histograms for each of the Agent Attribute show the range of values (x-axis), and
number of synthesized Agents against each value (y-axis) Consumer PreferencesForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
30
0 2
Income
4 6 8
1e6
60
40
20
0
EconRate
5
EasyRefuel
20
10
0
6 7 8 9 104
PowerRate
30
20
10
0
6 8 10
4
RangeRate
5 6 7 8 9 10
20 30
Age
40 50 60
30
20
10
0
2 4 6 8 10
20
10
0
20
10
0
Figure 16: Histogram of created Agent Attributes (Part A)
6
FuelEconRate
30
20
10
0
7 8 9 10
0
DailyTravel
20 40 60 80 1000
WTPM
20
10
0
10 20 30 40
0
MaxExpend
60
40
20
0
60
40
20
0
200000 400000 6000002
Popularity
20
10
0
5 6 8 10
4
Emission
20
10
0
6 8 10
Figure 17: Histogram of created Agent Attributes (Part B) Consumer PreferencesForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
31
3.5 Charging Behaviour
The electric two-wheelers typically have battery sizes between 1.2 kWh to 3.3 kWh and
thus can be charged either at home or at public charging points. As per the survey, 63%
of the respondents preferred public charging points over charging at home (Figure 18).
Distribution of Preference of Charging Mode (%)
63
Fast charger at outside station
Slow charger at home37
Figure 18: Consumer preference of charging
However, from the survey responses, it was found that the preference to home charging or
charging at station is not strongly correlated to the daily travel distance. It was observed
in both the cases that the daily travel distance varies through a wide range. Even the
income distribution of the agents preferring public charging or home charging facilities
were also similar, as shown in Figures 19 and 20. Hence 37% of the agents were randomly
assigned the attribute of preference for home charging, whereas other 63% were randomly
assigned the attribute of preference for public charging.
Figure 19 and Figure 20 demonstrate that preference for home charging or public
station charging is not strongly related to the daily travel distance. It may be dependent
on the personal attitudes.
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Average daily travel distance (km)
Distribution of Daily Travel Distance for Home Charging
Number of consumers
Figure 19: Distribution of daily travel distance for Agents preferring home charging Consumer PreferencesForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
32
Average daily travel distance (km)
Distribution of Daily Travel Distance for
Charging Station Charging
0 1020304050607080
17.5
15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
Number of consumers
Figure 20: Distribution of daily travel distance for Agents preferring public charging facilities Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India 33
4.1 Survey of Available Electric Two-wheelers
A detailed study of the specifications of the IC engine and electric two-wheelers available
in the market (as in August 2021) was made. The vehicles were categorized in terms of
their power and type of propulsion. The obtained representative results are given below
in Table 8.
Table 8: Specifications of available vehicles
Category Name
Vehicle
Class
Ex-
showroom
Price (Rs.)
Traction
Battery
Kwh
Power
(W)
Fuel
Economy
(kmpl)
Fuel
Per km*
Range
(km)
ICScooter87 Scooter 57000 - 4000 59.6 0.017 250
ICScooter110 Scooter 63000 - 6000 55.45 0.018 266
ICScooter125 Scooter 73000 - 6120 51.02 0.02 271
ICMotCycle100 MotorCycle 53000 - 5810 82.6 0.012 867
ICMotCycle110 MotorCycle 58000 - 6330 84.03 0.012 882
ICMotCycle125 MotorCycle 73000 - 8000 58.85 0.017 706
ICMotCycle150 MotorCycle 98000 - 10300 55.51 0.018 833
ICMotCycle160 MotorCycle 112000 - 11200 47.38 0.021 569
ICMotCycle180 MotorCycle 114000 - 12500 47.39 0.021 711
ICMotCycle200 MotorCycle 118000 - 13300 44.8 0.022 582
ICMotCycle220 MotorCycle 132000 - 13990 43.5 0.023 566
ICMotCycle250 MotorCycle 154000 - 19850 35 0.029 455
ICMotCycle300 MotorCycle 200000 - 20000 28.9 0.035 607
ICMotCycle310 MotorCycle 255000 - 25000 33.1 0.03 364
TECHNOLOGY
AND MARKET
TRENDS 4 Technology and Market TrendsForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
34
Category Name
Vehicle
Class
Ex-
showroom
Price (Rs.)
Traction
Battery
Kwh
Power
(W)
Fuel
Economy
(kmpl)
Fuel
Per km*
Range
(km)
ICMotCycle350 MotorCycle 166000 - 14249 40.8 0.025 551
ICMotCycle400 MotorCycle 212000 - 29400 28.57 0.035 371
ICMotCycle410 Motor Cycle 241000 - 17880 37.3 0.027 560
ICMotCycle650 Motor Cycle323000 - 35062 25.7 0.039 352
ICMotCycle1000 Motor Cycle1597000 - 73000 23.52 0.043 576
EVScooter1200 Scooter 60000 1.68 1200 NA 0.015 87
EVScooter1200a Scooter 59000 1.54 1200 NA 0.01 122
EVScooter1300 Scooter 63000 1.54 1300 NA 0.007 165
EVScooter1500 Scooter 76000 1.44 1500 NA 0.016 70
EVScooter1800 Scooter 71440 1.87 1800 NA 0.014 108
EVScooter1900a Scooter 89000 1.44 1900 NA 0.014 85
EVScooter1900b Scooter 104000 2.8 1900 NA 0.013 170
EVScooter2020 Scooter 94500 2.09 2020 NA 0.014 120
EVScooter2200 Scooter 79000 2.5 2200 NA 0.017 120
EVScooter2500 Scooter 73000 2.4 2500 NA 0.016 120
EVScooter2500a Scooter 99700 3.3 2500 NA 0.019 139
EVScooter5000 Scooter 90000 4.2 5000 NA 0.034 100
EVScooter5400 Scooter 113400 2.4 5400 NA 0.027 70
EVScooter6000 Scooter 132400 2.61 6000 NA 0.025 85
EVMotCycle1500 Motorcycle 95000 2.7 1500 NA 0.02 110
EVMotCycle3000 MotorCycle 90800 3.24 3000 NA 0.017 150
EVMotCycle4300 MotorCycle 157000 4.32 4300 NA 0.025 140
EVMotCycle5000 MotorCycle 229000 5.18 5000 NA 0.038 110
EVMotCycle5300 MotorCycle 130000 6.6 5300 NA 0.053 100
EVMotCycle6000 MotorCycle 112000 4 6000 NA 0.027 120
EVMotCycle8000 MotorCycle 136000 4.4 8000 NA 0.023 150
EVMotCycle12000 MotorCycle 142000 8.2 12000 NA 0.066 100
EVMotCycle25430 MotorCycle 289000 2.4 25430 NA 0.01 200
*Note: Fuel per km values are in l/km in case of IC engine vehicles and kWh/kg in case of electric vehicles Technology and Market TrendsForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
35
4.2 Charging of Electric Two-wheelers
Charging points that offer maximum power of 7.4 kW (230 V, 32 A) and are accessible
by portable charging cables may be available at locations where vehicles are parked
on a regular basis. The NITI Aayog-DST handbook on EV charging broadly categorizes
EV charging infrastructure into three types: private, semi-public and public and a brief
description about these is given in Table 9.
Table 9: Types of charging facilities for electric two-wheelers
Charging
Infrastructure Type
Description
Private Charging
Dedicated charging for personal EV or EV fleet owners located at
independent homes and dedicated parking spots in apartments/offices etc.
Semi-Public
Charging
Shared charging for a restricted set of EV users located at apartment
complexes, office campuses, gated communities, shopping malls, hospitals,
universities and government buildings etc.
Public Charging
Open for all EV users, located at public parking lots, on-street parking,
charging plazas, petrol pumps, highways and metro stations.
Thus, in terms of financial implications to the owners of the electric two-wheelers, two
scenarios can be considered. The first is the private charging in which the owner needs
to pay for the installation of charging facility at his/her premises and will need to pay
electricity bill. The other is the use of public charging stations for which the user will have
to pay to the owner/operator of the facility. In both the cases, the power drawn by the
battery is assumed to be 7 kW while using the tool.
4.3 Status of EV Ecosystem and Electric Two-wheelers
Production Plan
Efforts for introducing electric two-wheelers started in India in 1990s. Companies like Bajaj
Auto, Scooters India Ltd. and Hero Motor Corporation etc. developed electric two-wheelers.
The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) offered subsidy on electric vehicles
during 2010-12. However, such efforts did not sustain and the sales of electric vehicles
dropped significantly once subsidy was withdrawn.
After the launch of the FAME scheme, many new electric two-wheeler manufacturers have
emerged and even the established ones have joined the race. Start-up companies such
as Ather Energy, Okinawa, Pure EV and Ampere Vehicles etc. have established EV 2/3
wheeler manufacturing capacities and plan to expand them further. Ola has announced
an ambitious plan for manufacturing and companies such as Hero Electric and Bajaj Auto
etc. have also set up manufacturing facilities for the electric 2/3 wheelers.
An assessment of year-wise production capacity of electric 2/3 wheelers in the country
was made based on the announcements made by the companies in the media and also
based on direct inputs received from some of the manufacturers. Figure 21 gives a glimpse
of such estimated capacity up to FY 2031. Technology and Market TrendsForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
36
202120222023
Amper Vehicles
Ather
Bajaj Auto
Benling
Bgauss
Boom
Hero
Joy
Komaki
Okinawa
Ola
Pure EV
Revolt
Simple Energy
TVS
202420252026
Financial Year
Expected EV Two-Wheeler Manufacturing Capacity
(Based on Announced Plans)
Number of Vehicles (Lakh)
20272028202920302031
200
150
100
50
0
Figure 21: Estimated production capacity of electric two-wheelers in India (scooters and motorcycles)
In terms of infrastructure, in March 2021, there were about 1800 charging stations in India.
Sanction has been given for installation of 3300 more charging stations under the FAME
scheme. In the first phase of FAME, 520 charging stations were sanctioned and out of
these, 429 have been commissioned. In the second phase, 2877 charging stations have been
sanctioned. The public sector oil companies such as IOCL, HPCL and BPCL also plan to set
up EV charging facilities at their 22000 fuel outlets. A host of private sector companies
and start-ups have recently ventured into the business of electric vehicle charging. Based
on the announcements on charging facility installation plans by the government as well
as private sector entities and applying our judgement on likely year-wise phasing of their
installations, a picture of future charging facility availability as depicted in the Figure 22
emerges.
Number of charging points
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Year
Charging Points Based on Existing Installations and Announced Plans
2024 2025
BPCL
EVRE/FreshWorld
EVRE/Lets Transport
EVRE/Park+
FAME
FAME-1
Gov of Maharashtra
HPCL
Hero Electric/Charzer
Hero Electric/Massive Mobility
Indian Oil
MAW/EVRE
Magenta Power
NTPC
PGCIL
Park+
REIL
Various Organizations
eBikeGo
Figure 22: Existing and announced plans for charging facility in India
While this information provided an initial benchmark for constructing a few scenarios of
possible roll out of charging facilities, it was also kept in mind that the announcements
are mainly short-term onesand many more such plans may come up for the future years. Technology and Market TrendsForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
37
4.4 Trajectory of the Overall Two-Wheeler Market
From the data on registered motor vehicles in India since 1951 it can be seen that there
has been phenomenal growth in their population in the country. The driving forces behind
such growth have been population growth, economic growth and urbanization etc. Among
various types of vehicles, two-wheelers have been in the lead except in the initial few
years. Particularly, since 1980s there has been big strides in the two-wheelers market and
the sales were only hit during 2019-20 and 2020-21 due to COVID-19 pandemic situation.
Figure 23 shows the growth pattern of various categories of vehicles over the years.
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
Number of registered vehicles
(thoudsnds)
19501960197019801990
Financial Year
200020102020
India - Number of Registered vehicles
All_Vehicles
TwoWheeler
Car
Bus
GoodsVehicle
Other
Figure 23: Growth in number of registered vehicles in India
Overall sales of two-wheelers in future years (FY2023 onwards) were estimated based on
the CAGR between FY2015 and FY2019. Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India 38
5.1 Definition of the Scenarios
A number of variables influence the projections of the annual level of market penetration
of electric two-wheelers and it is possible to create many scenarios using the Agent-based
model. However, in this report the focus is on those scenarios which provide important
insights into the required measures by various stakeholders. Typically, such scenarios are
defined based on the variables which are associated with high uncertainties and have high
impact. Along with that, we also considered those scenarios which provide some policy
insights.
As mentioned earlier, the crude oil prices have historically varied significantly. Although in
the domestic market attempts have been made to stabilize the prices of petroleum fuels
through measures like tax exemptions, they only impact moderately when crude prices reach
very high in the international market. Thus, fuel price is one driving force for adoption of
electric vehicles which is associated with high uncertainty and is likely to have a high impact.
Among all the components, battery contributes the most to the manufacturing cost of
the electric vehicles. Thus, battery cost is expected to have high impact on the adoption
of electric two-wheelers in India. Lithium ion battery cost has come down significantly in
the last decade. However, very recently, with the availability of lithium being a concern
the downward trajectory of the lithium ion battery has been arrested to some extent.
Even there is slight increase in the cost also. However, in some studies it is projected
that there will be some reduction in the cost of lithium ion battery, driven by solid state
technology. In India, there is possibility of cost reduction due to local manufacturing. With
the Production Linked Incentive scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cells, such a scenario
is distinctly possible.
Incentives/subsidies directly impact purchase of electric vehicles by reducing the gap
between the IC engine and electric vehicles in terms of sale price. Although in the longer
term it is desirable that electric vehicles sustain in the market on their own without
such incentives/subsidies, they are justified as short-term actions towards removing the
initial inertia and apprehensions about electric mobility. The fact that environmental
and social benefits are expected as a result of such support also justifies such actions.
PROJECTED
SCENARIOS
OF EV TWO-
WHEELERS
PENETRATION
5 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
39
Hence, subsidies/incentives are considered in the scenario analysis. Since there are FAME
subsidies as well as subsidies provided by various state governments, we only focus on
an equivalent of FAME subsidy. The scenarios have been constructed by varying the year
till such subsidies are expected to continue.
Enhanced adoption of electric vehicles can also be driven by enhanced performance due
to technological improvements. Higher specific energy battery may improve the range of
the vehicle and improved electric motors may offer higher power and speed, removing
the gap between electric vehicles and conventional IC engine vehicles.
There are also some factors which mainly influence the electric mobility adoption in terms
of constraints.
Roll out of charging infrastructure is one such important factor for adoption of electric
mobility, as it has a direct relevance to the so-called ‘Range Anxiety’ of the users. Although
setting up charging infrastructure cannot be classified as something that involves ‘high
uncertainty’, including it as a scenario defining variable offers an advantage for important
policy insights. Broadly, two major states of this driving force are considered: one in
which electric vehicle penetration is faced with the limitation of availability of charging
infrastructure and the other in which enough number of charging facilities are always
available. A third scenario, which assumes no constraint in terms of either supply of vehicles
or availability of charging facilities, is an unlikely scenario, but gives an indication of the
latent demand for the electric two-wheelers.
The readiness of the industry is another important influencing factor for market penetration
of electric vehicles. In this analysis, it has been considered in terms of plan for production
of electric two-wheelers by the vehicle manufacturers. The announcement of plans for
establishing electric two-wheeler manufacturing facilities constitute the basis of the capacity
estimates. However, as the electric mobility industry gains momentum in India, some more
established vehicle manufacturers as well as the new entrants may come up with plans of
further capacity addition. To consider such possibilities, three different production levels
have been considered under each of the main scenarios. These are shown in Figure 24.
60000000
50000000
40000000
30000000
20000000
10000000
0
Production Capacity (Units)
2022 2024 2026
Financial Year
2028 2030
EV Two-Wheeler Production Levels Assumed
A (Base Level)
B
C
Figure 24: Assumed production scenarios for EV two-wheelers Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
40
Under sub-scenario A, the number of vehicles produced each year is solely derived from
the announced plans of the vehicle manufacturers. Since information on the new capacity
additions is not available beyond a certain period, it is assumed that capacity achieved
till then will continue till the Financial Year 2031. Under production sub-scenario B, it is
assumed that after FY 2024 the capacity will grow with a CAGR of 15%. Similarly, the
production sub-scenario C assumes a CAGR of 20% for the production capacity growth
after FY2024.
Just like sub-scenarios of production, three different sub-scenarios of availability of charging
infrastructure have also been considered. Under the base sub-scenario X, the information
of plans for setting up charging infrastructure has been compiled as shown in Figure
25. However, considering the fact that setting up charging facilities may be a more agile
process as compared to setting up vehicle manufacturing facilities, certain annual capacity
additions are expected. Hence, we have considered the CAGR between financial year 2022
and financial year 2025 (until such data is available), to estimate charging facilities up to
financial year 2031 in the base level X. Doubling and tripling of charging infrastructure
from FY 2023 onwards have been assumed in the charging infrastructure levels Y and Z,
respectively.
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Charging Ports (Units)
20302028
Financial Year
202620242022
Charging Infrastructure Scenarios Assumed
X (Base Level)
Y
Z
Figure 25: Assumed charging infrastructure scenarios for EV two-wheelers
Estimation of required charging infrastructure at any point of time depends on, apart
from the stock of the electric vehicles, how the infrastructure is utilized. In general, the
installed charging infrastructure is not fully utilized and the utilization is low at the low
level of penetration of electric vehicles. To take this into account, a Capacity Utilization
Factor (CUF) is considered, which is assumed to follow a logistic growth curve to grow
from 10% in FY2021 to 70% in 2031 (Figure 26). Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
41
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Capacity Utilization Factor
2022 2024
Financial Year
Charging Facility Capacity Utilization Factor
2026 2028 2030
CUF
Figure 26: Assumed Capacity Utilization Factor for the charging infrastructure
Apart from the utilization factor, we also need to consider the fact that not all charging
facilities are dedicated for electric two-wheelers. Hence, it is assumed that 70% of the
charging power dispensed by the charging infrastructure during its operation is available for
the two-wheelers. Though comprehensive assessment of required charging infrastructure
can only be made if all types of vehicles are considered, we can have a reasonable
assessment based on these assumptions.
As per the above discussion, all the scenarios analyzed in the present report are summarized
in Table 10.
Table 10: Scenarios considered
Scenario NameDemand Incentive
Battery Cost
Reduction CAGR
Performance
Improvement Due to
Technological Progress
Challenged Diffusion No after FY 2024 2%No
Performance Driven No after FY 2024 2%Yes
Low Battery Cost No after FY 2024 8%No
Technology Driven No after FY 2024 8%Yes
Incentive Driven Yes (till FY 2031) 2%No
Battery Cost Challenged Yes (till FY 2031) 2%Yes
Same Performance Yes (till FY 2031) 8%No
OptimisticYes (till FY 2031) 8%Yes
The forecasting results of EV two-wheelers penetration are also influenced by the constraints,
mainly, in terms of production capacity of the electric two-wheelers and availability of
charging infrastructure. The constraint levels analyzed for each of the scenarios are listed
in Table 11. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
42
Table 11: Sub-scenarios and constraint levels considered
Sub-
scenarios
based on
constraints
Limited
by Vehicle
Production
Limited by
Availability
of Charging
Infrastructure
Production
Capacity Level
Charging
Infrastructure
Level
Constraint Sub
Scenario
Full
Constrained
Yes Yes
A
(Base Level)
X
(Base Level)
FullConstr-AX
Y
(Doubled from
third year)
FullConstr-AY
Z
(Tripled from
third year)
FullConstr-AZ
B
(Doubled from
third year)
X FullConstr-BX
Y FullConstr-BY
Z FullConstr-BZ
C
(Tripled from
third year)
X FullConstr-CX
Y FullConstr-CY
Z FullConstr-CZ
Production
Constrained
Yes No
A
Any
ProdConstr-A
BProdConstr-B
CProdConstr-C
Charge
Constrained
No Yes Any
X ChgContr-X
Y Chg Constr-Y
Z ChgConstr-Z
No
Constraints
No No Any Any NoConstr
However, it may be noted that the tool can be run with varying a number of input
parameters and thus, it is possible to construct many more scenarios and sub-scenarios.
For example, for the entire analysis, it is assumed that demand incentive will be available
till 2024. However, the tool provides options to study other scenarios related to demand
incentives as well.
In the following sections of this report all the above sub-scenarios have been analyzed for
the penetration, production and sale of electric two-wheelers. The demand for charging
points and battery demand have also been studied.
5.2 Challenged Diffusion Scenario
5.2.1 Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Full Constraint
The penetration level is low in this case. A peak of 5.82% is achieved in the FY 2024
after which withdrawal of demand incentives cause a fall in penetration of electric two- Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
43
wheelers. There is, however, a rise in penetration after this decline and for base level of
production and charging infrastructure the penetration value in FY 2031 is 3.10%. Enhancing
the charging infrastructure does not increase EV penetration. This is depicted in Figure 27.
7
5
4
3
2
1
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026
Financial Year
2028 2030
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 27: Projected penetration of electric two-wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Full
Constraint, production level A
The details of penetration values for all combinations of production capacity and charging
infrastructure availability are presented in the Table 12.
Table 12: Projected Penetration of Electric Two Wheelers in Challenged Diffusion
Scenario, with Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91
2023 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88
2024 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2025 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85
2026 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46
2027 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46
2028 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59
2029 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72
2030 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85
2031 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
44
Sale of electric two-wheelers always remain less than the installed production capacity
(Figure 28).
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 28: Sale and production of electric two-wheeler in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Full
Constraint, production level A
Details of sales volume of electric two-wheelers in all combinations of production capacity
and charging infrastructure are shown in Table 13.
Table 13: Projected Sale of Electric Two-wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with
Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37
2023 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2024 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85
2025 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
2026 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66
2027 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93
2028 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49
2029 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1
2030 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76
2031 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
45
The demand for charging infrastructure for the AX constraint level is shown in Fig 29.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 29: Demand for charging infrastructure in Challenged Diffusion Scenario, constraint level AX
The demand for battery reaches a 1.68 GWh in the FY 2024and then followed by a decline,
rises to 1.28 GWh in the FY 2031 (Figure 30 and Table 14).
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Battery Demand (GWh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 30: Projected battery demand in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Full Constraints, vehicle
production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
46
Table 14: Projected battery demand in Challenged Scenario with Full Constraints
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
2023 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2024 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68
2025 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
2026 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74
2027 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78
2028 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89
2029 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
2030 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09
2031 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28
5.2.2 Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Production Constraint
Since the constraint of charging infrastructure is not considered, the penetration at all
planned charging infrastructure levels increases to 6.86% in FY 2024, declines after
withdrawal of subsidy and then again rises to reach 3.10% in FY 2031 (Figure 31).
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 31: Projected penetration of electric two-wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with
Production Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
47
The details of projected penetration values under this scenario for various combinations
of production capacity and infrastructure capacity are in the Table 15.
Table 15: Projected Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in Challenged Diffusion
Scenario with Production Constraint
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62
2023 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2024 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86
2025 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85
2026 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46
2027 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46
2028 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59
2029 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72
2030 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85
2031 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Accordingly, the sale of electric two-wheelers is also same in all the combinations of
production capacity and charging infrastructure (Figure 32).
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 32: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with
Production Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
48
Details of sale volumes of electric two-wheelers in all the combinations of production level
and charging infrastructure are shown in Table 16.
Table 16: Projected Sale of Electric Two-Wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with
Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48
2023 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9
2024 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6
2025 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
2026 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66
2027 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93
2028 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49
2029 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1
2030 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76
2031 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8
The demand for charging points for the AX constraint level is shown in Figure 33. The
demand was found to be same for all the combinations of above constraint levels.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 33: Demand for charging points in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Production Constraint
(constraint level AX)
The demand for battery for all the combinations of constraint levels reaches 2.12 GWh,
which occurs in the FY 2024 and then, followed by a decline, again rises to 1.28 GWh in
the FY 2031. Figure 34 describes the situation for Production Constraint A and Table 17
gives the detailed results for all the combinations. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
49
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
Battery Demand (GWh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducion @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 34: Battery demand in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with production constrain, production
level A
Table 17: Battery Demand in the Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Production
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86
2023 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53
2024 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12
2025 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
2026 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74
2027 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78
2028 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89
2029 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
2030 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09
2031 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28
5.2.3 Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Charge Constraint
The profile of penetration of electric two-wheelers in base infrastructure level X is shown in
Figure 35 in this scenario. The maximum penetration of 5.82% is achieved in the FY 2024.
Subsequently, penetration level follows a pattern based on available charging infrastructure
and absence of demand incentives. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
50
6
5
4
3
2
1
EV Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Scenario: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
AX
BX
CX
Figure 35: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Charge
Constraint, infrastructure level X
The penetration levels remain same for infrastructure levels Y and Z too, because
the assumed infrastructure is same for first two years, during which a higher level of
infrastructure would have made a difference (Table 18).
Table 18: Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with
Charge Constraint, infrastructure level X
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91
2023 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88
2024 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2025 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85
2026 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46
2027 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46
2028 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59
2029 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72
2030 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85
2031 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
51
Projected sale of electric two-wheelers shows that the maximum sale will be 9.85 lakh
units in the FY 2024 and it will reach 7.8 lakh units in FY 2031 after a slump following
withdrawal of demand incentives (Figure 36 and Table 19).
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
EVSale AX
EVSale BX
EVSale CX
EVProduction AX
EVProduction BX
EVProduction CX
Figure 36: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Challenged Diffusion Scenario with
Charge Constraint, infrastructure level X
Table 19: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Charge
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37
2023 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2024 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85
2025 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
2026 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66
2027 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93
2028 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49
2029 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1
2030 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76
2031 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
52
Projected charging point demand at the AX constraint level is shown in Figure 37.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ChgConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 37: Demand for charging points in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with Charge Constraint
(constraint level AX)
Projected battery demand has a maximum value of 1.68 GWh in FY 2024 and in FY 2031
this value reaches 1.28 GWh (Figure 38 and Table 20. As can be seen, there is no difference
in results due to variation of vehicle production capacity or charging infrastructure.
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Battery Demand (GWh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducing @ 2% annually
AX
BX
CX
Figure 38: Battery demand for charging points in Challenged Diffusion Scenario, with infrastructure
constraint level X Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
53
Table 20: Battery demand for charging points in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with
Charge Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
2023 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2024 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68
2025 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
2026 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74
2027 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78
2028 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89
2029 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
2030 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09
2031 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28
5.2.4 Challenged Diffusion Scenario with No Constraint
This is a hypothetical scenario in which there is no limitation in terms of charging
infrastructure or supply of vehicles. While purchasing the vehicles the buyers do not
consider availability of adequate charging infrastructure as a factor
However, in the present case, absence of any constraint in terms of vehicle production
capacity or installed charging infrastructure does not make any significant difference in the
penetration of electric two-wheelers (Figure 38 and Table 21) in all the constraint levels
assumed by us.
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 39: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with No Constraint,
production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
54
Table 21: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with no
constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62
2023 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2024 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86
2025 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85
2026 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46
2027 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46 2.46
2028 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59 2.59
2029 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72
2030 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85
2031 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10 3.10
The sale of electric two-wheelers reaches a maximum of 11.6 lakh units in the FY 2024and
then 7.8 lakh units in the FY 2031. These values when compared with other sub-scenarios
of Challenged Diffusion Scenario, indicate that there will be some initial gains due to
absence of constraints, but the maximum sale volume achieved will not be significantly
higher (Figure 40 and Table 22).
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 40: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with No
Constraint Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
55
Table 22: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Challenged Diffusion Scenario with no
constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48
2023 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9
2024 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6
2025 5.10 5.10 5.10 5.10 5.10 5.10 5.1 5.1 5.1
2026 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66
2027 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93
2028 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49
2029 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.1 6.1 6.1
2030 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76 6.76
2031 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.80 7.8 7.8 7.8
The demands for charging points remain at a very low level like in other constraint sub-
scenarios under the Challenged Diffusion Scenario. An example for the constraint level AX
is shown in Figure 41 for this situation.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 41: Demand for charging points in the Challenged Diffusion Scenario with No Constraint
(constraint level AX)
The demand for battery also, reaches only a marginally higher level at 2.12 MWh in the
FY 2024 and then 1.28 GWh in the FY 2031 (Figure 41 and Table 23). Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
56
2.00
1.75
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
Battery Demand (GWh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducion @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 42: Battery demand for electric two-wheelers in the Challenged Diffusion Scenario with no
constraint, vehicle production level A
Table 23: Battery demand for electric two-wheelers in the Challenged Diffusion Scenario
with No Constraint (GWh)
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86
2023 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53
2024 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12
2025 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
2026 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74
2027 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78
2028 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89
2029 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
2030 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09
2031 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28
5.3 Performance Driven Scenario
Under this scenario, the demand incentive is withdrawn after FY 2024, the battery cost
reduction annually is at 2% and the only positive influence is improvement in the range
and power of the electric two-wheelers by 5% annually during the period the FY 2024
to FY 2027. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
57
5.3.1 Performance Driven Scenario with Full Constraint
The penetration level under this case is shown in Figure 43 and Table 24. There is significant
growth of adoption of electric two-wheelers till FY 2024, when penetration level reaches
7.50%. After the expected decline followed by withdrawal of subsidy, penetration starts
growing again, but finally reaches only 7.12% in the FY 2031. This is little higher as compared
to similar conditions in the Challenged Diffusion Scenario.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 43: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Performance Driven Scenario with Full Constraint,
production level A
Here also, the production capacity enhancement does not have any influence on the
penetration. The assumed charging infrastructure at levels X, Y and Z are same during the
first two years, when it could have some impacts because we had assumed that doubling
and tripling of this infrastructure may take place after third year. In the subsequent years,
the base level of infrastructure itself will be much higher compared to the penetration
level of electric two-wheelers.
Table 24: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Performance Driven Scenario with
Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91
2023 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88
2024 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
2025 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40
2026 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
58
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2027 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
2028 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
2029 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2030 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2031 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12
A sale of 12.70 lakh units of electric two-wheelers will occur in the FY 2024 and it will
reach 17.87 lakh units in FY 2031 (Figure 44 and Table 25).
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
200
150
100
50
0
2022 2024 2026
Financial Year
2028 2030
Performance
Improvement
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Demand
Incentive
Figure 44: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Performance Driven Scenario with Full
Constraint, production level A
Table 25: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Performance Driven Scenario with Full
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37
2023 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2024 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70
2025 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88
2026 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09
2027 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85
2028 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25
2029 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48
2030 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74
2031 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
59
Due to low penetration of electric two-wheelers, the projected demand for charging
infrastructure is much less in this case as compared to the base level assumed as per
announced plans. Demand for charging points at the constraint level AX is shown in
Figure 45.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 45: Demand of charging points in the Performance Driven Scenario with Full Constraints
(constraint level AX)
The demand for battery reaches 2.45 GWh occurs in the FY 2024 and the final value in
the FY 2031 is 3.35 GWh (Figure 45 and Table 26).
Performance
Improvement
Demand
Incentive
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
AX
AY
AZ
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Battery Demand (GWh)
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducion @ 2% annually
Figure 46: Battery demand in the Performance Driven Scenario with Full Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
60
Table 26: Battery demand in the Performance Driven Scenario with Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
2023 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2024 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45
2025 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27
2026 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47
2027 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78
2028 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03
2029 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24
2030 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61
2031 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35
5.3.2 Performance Driven Scenario with Production Constraint
Some increased level of penetration in the FY 2022 and FY 2023 is seen in this case
indicating that there is lack of adequate charging infrastructure at present. The peak level
of electric two-wheelers penetration will be achieved in the FY 2024, which is 8.15%. Finally,
market penetration will reach 7.12% (Figure 47 and Table 27).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 47: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Performance Driven Scenario with Production
Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
61
Table 27: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Performance Driven Scenario with
Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62
2023 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2024 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15
2025 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
2026 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53
2027 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
2028 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3
2029 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2030 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2031 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12
Here, the sale achieved in the FY 2024 is 13.69 lakh units and in the FY 2031 it is 17.87 lakh
units (Figure 48 and Table 28).
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
200
150
100
50
0
2022 2024 2026
Financial Year
2028 2030
Performance
Improvement
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZDemand
Incentive
Figure 48: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Performance Driven Scenario with Production
Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
62
Table 28: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Performance Driven Scenario with
Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48
2023 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90
2024 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79
2025 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8
2026 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58
2027 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85
2028 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25
2029 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48
2030 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74
2031 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87
Demand for the charging points at constraint level AX is shown in the Figure 49.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 49: Demand for charging points in the Performance Driven Scenario with Production Constraint
(constraint level AX) Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
63
The peak battery demand will be 2.93 GWh in the FY 2024 and the final demand will be
3.35 GWh in the FY 2031 (Figure 50 and Table 29).
Performance
Improvement
Demand
Incentive
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
AX
AY
AZ
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Battery Demand (GWh)
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducion @ 2% annually
Figure 50: Battery demand in the Performance Driven Scenario with Production Constraint, production
level A
Table 29: Battery demand in the Performance Driven Scenario with Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86
2023 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53
2024 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91
2025 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
2026 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57
2027 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78
2028 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03
2029 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24
2030 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61
2031 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35
5.3.3 Performance Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint
The penetration levels projected for the charging infrastructure level X are shown in Figure
51 for this case. A maximum penetration of 7.50% will be achieved in the FY 2024 and it
will be 7.12% in FY 2031. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
64
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Penetration (%)
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Penetration of EV 2W: Scenario: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducing @ 2% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
AX
BY
CZ
Figure 51: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Performance Driven Scenario with Charge
Constraint, infrastructure level X
The penetration is same for all the combinations of constraint levels (Table 30). This is
because till FY 2022 infrastructure levels X, Y and Z are assumed to be same and beyond
that period even the assumed base level of infrastructure is sufficient for supporting the
demand for electric two-wheelers.
Table 30: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Performance Driven Scenario with
Charge Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91
2023 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88
2024 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
2025 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40 4.40
2026 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27
2027 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
2028 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30
2029 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2030 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2031 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
65
Projected sale of electric two-wheelers is same for all the vehicle production capacity
levels. Figure 52 shows this situation for infrastructure level X.
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
EVSale AX
EVSale BX
EVSale CX
EVProduction AX
EVProduction BX
EVProduction CX
Figure 52: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Performance Driven Scenario with
Charge Constraint, infrastructure level X
Table 31 shows that the sales figures are same in all the possible combinations of vehicle
production and charging infrastructure capacities. Sales volume is 12.70 lakh units in the
FY 2024 and the sale reaches 17.87 lakh units in the FY 2031.
Table 31: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Performance Driven
Scenario with Charge Constraint
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37
2023 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2024 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70 12.70
2025 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88
2026 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09
2027 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85
2028 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25
2029 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48
2030 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74
2031 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
66
Projected demand for charging points at the constraint level AX is shown in Figure 53.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ChgConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 53: Demand for charging points in the Performance Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint
(constraint level AX).
The battery demand will be 2.45 GWh in the FY 2024 and it will reach 3.35 GWh in the
FY 2031 (Figure 54 and Table 32).
Performance
Improvement
Demand
Incentive
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
AX
BX
CX
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Battery Demand (GWh)
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducing @ 2% annually
Figure 54: Battery demand in the Performance Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint, infrastructure
level X Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
67
Table 32: Battery demand in the Performance Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
2023 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2024 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45
2025 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27
2026 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47
2027 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78
2028 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03
2029 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24
2030 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61
2031 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35
5.3.4 Performance Driven Scenario with No Constraint
When none of the constraints of the production capacity or charging infrastructure are
considered, the penetration level of electric two-wheelers is higher as compared to other
constraint sub-scenarios under this scenario. However, the peak penetration value in the
FY 2024 is 8.15% and subsequently, with the withdrawal of demand incentives, the profile
of penetration is similar to other constraint sub-scenarios. The situation is depicted in
Figure 55 and Table 33.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 55: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Performance Driven Scenario with
No  Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
68
Table 33: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Performance Driven Scenario with
No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62
2023 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2024 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15
2025 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
2026 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53
2027 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
2028 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30 5.30
2029 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2030 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2031 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12
The sales volume in the FY 2024 is little higher in this case at 13.79 lakh units but the
final sales volume in FY 2031 remains at 17.82 lakh units (Figure 56 and Table 34).
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
200
150
100
50
0
2022 2024 2026
Financial Year
2028 2030
Performance
Improvement
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZDemand
Incentive
Figure 56: Sale and assumed production of electric two-wheelers in Performance Driven Scenario with
No Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
69
Table 34: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Performance Driven Scenario with no
constraint (Lakh)
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48
2023 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90
2024 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79
2025 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80 8.80
2026 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58
2027 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85
2028 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25 11.25
2029 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48 12.48
2030 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74 14.74
2031 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87 17.87
Demand for charging points at the constraint level AX is show in Figure 57.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 57: Demand of charging infrastructure in the Performance Driven Scenario with No Constraint,
constraint sub-scenario AX Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
70
Demand for battery reaches 5.23 GWh in the FY 2024 and finally 2.64 GWh in FY 2031
(Figure 58 and Table 35).
Performance
Improvement
Demand
Incentive
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
AX
AY
AZ
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Battery Demand (GWh)
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducion @ 2% annually
Figure 58: Demand for battery in the Performance Driven Scenario with No Constraint, production
level A
Table 35: Demand for battery in the Performance Driven Scenario with No constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86
2023 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53
2024 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91
2025 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
2026 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57
2027 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78 1.78
2028 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03
2029 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24 2.24
2030 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61
2031 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.35
5.4 Low Battery Cost Scenario
Under this scenario the battery cost is assumed to reduce annually at a rate of 8%.
However, the demand incentives are withdrawn after FY 2024 and the performance level
of the electric two-wheelers is assumed to remain same. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
71
5.4.1 Low Battery Cost Scenario with Full Constraint
The penetration levels here are higher as compared to Challenged Diffusion and
Performance Driven scenarios discussed earlier. However, there is a slump after FY 2024
and the penetration levels do not increase by enhancing the production level or charging
infrastructure. The situation is depicted in Figure 59 and Table 36.
10
8
6
4
2
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 59: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Full Constraints,
production level A
Table 36: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with
Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03
2023 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2024 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06
2025 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43
2026 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27
2027 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66
2028 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08
2029 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2030 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93
2031 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
72
The sales volume of electric two-wheelers reaches a maximum of 15.33 lakh units in the
FY 2024 and subsequently at 27.62 lakh units in the FY 2031 (Figure 60 and Table 37).
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 60: Sale and assumed production of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost scenario
with Full Constraint, production level A
Table 37: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost scenario with Full
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56
2023 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
2024 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33
2025 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73
2026 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09
2027 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34
2028 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89
2029 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26
2030 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19
2031 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
73
The demand for charging points increases continuously but the values are much less as
compared to the assumed installations in the base level X (Figure 61).
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 61: Demand for charging points in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Full Constraints
(constraint level AX)
The projected demand for battery is 3.08 GWh in the FY 2024 and 5.37 GWh in the FY
2031 (Figure 62 and Table 38).
5
4
3
2
1
0
Battery Demand (GWh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 62: Battery demand in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Full Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
74
Table 38: Battery demand in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24
2023 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
2024 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08
2025 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58
2026 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33
2027 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55
2028 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15
2029 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78
2030 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97
2031 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37
5.4.2 Low Battery Cost Scenario with Production Constraint
With charging infrastructure not being a concern in the purchase decision, there are some
minor increments in the penetration levels in the initial years, until it reaches 10.22% in
the FY 2024. After the decline due to immediate effect of withdrawal of incentives, the
penetration level finally reaches 11% in the FY 2031 (Figure 63).
10
8
6
4
2
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 63: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Production
Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
75
Table 39: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with
Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14
2023 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2024 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22
2025 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95
2026 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53
2027 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
2028 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08
2029 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2030 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93
2031 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
The sale of electric two-wheelers is projected to reach 17.30 lakh units in the FY 2024
and 27.62 lakh units in the FY 2031 (Figure 64 and Table 40).
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 64: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with
Production Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
76
Table 40: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with
Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26
2023 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.5911.59 11.59 11.59
2024 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3
2025 10.66 10.66 10.66 10.66 10.66 10.6610.66 10.66 10.66
2026 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58
2027 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85
2028 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.8912.89 12.89 12.89
2029 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.2616.26 16.26 16.26
2030 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.1921.19 21.19 21.19
2031 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.6227.62 27.62 27.62
Demand for charging points remains much less as compared to planned infrastructure
assumed in the base level. This situation for constraint level AX is depicted in Figure 65.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 65: Demand for charging points in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Production Constraint,
constraint level AX Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
77
As can be seen, projected battery demand in the FY 2024 is 3.53 GWh and in the FY 2031
it is 5.37 GWh (Figure 66 and Table 41).
5
4
3
2
1
0
Battery Demand (GWh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 66: Projected battery demand in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Production Constraint,
production level A
Table 41: Projected battery demand in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Production
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2023 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11
2024 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53
2025 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72
2026 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41
2027 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63
2028 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15
2029 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78
2030 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97
2031 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37
5.4.3 Low Battery Cost Scenario with Charge Constraint
Penetration of electric two-wheelers in this case reaches 9.06% in FY 2024 and finally
11.00% in FY 2031 after going through a decline due to withdrawal of demand incentives
(Figure 67 and Table 42). Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
78
10
8
6
4
2
EV Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Scenario: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducing @ 8% annually
AX
BX
CX
Figure 67: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Charge
Constraint, infrastructure level X
Table 42: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with
Charge Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03
2023 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2024 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06
2025 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.43
2026 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27 4.27
2027 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66 4.66
2028 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08
2029 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2030 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93
2031 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
79
The projected sale of electric two-wheelers is same for all the combinations of vehicle
production and infrastructure levels (Figure 68 and Table 43).
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
EVSale AX
EVSale BX
EVSale CX
EVProduction AX
EVProduction BX
EVProduction CX
Figure 68: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Low Battery Cost Scenario with Charge
Constraint, infrastructure level X
Table 43: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Low Battery Cost Scenario with Charge
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56
2023 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
2024 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33
2025 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73 9.73
2026 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09 8.09
2027 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34
2028 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.89
2029 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.26
2030 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.19
2031 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.62 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
80
Demand for charging infrastructure remains at low level as compared to announced plans
(Figure 69).
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ChgConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 69: Demand for charging points in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Charge Constraint,
infrastructure level X
The projected battery demand for infrastructure level X is shown in the Figure 65 and
Table 44. Projected demand for FY 2024 is 3.08 GWh and 5.37 GWh for FY 2031.
5
4
3
2
1
0
Battery Demand (GWh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducing @ 8% annually
AX
BX
CX
Figure 70: Projected battery demand in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Charge Constraints,
infrastructure level X Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
81
Table 44: Projected battery demand in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with Charge
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected battery Demand (GWh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24
2023 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
2024 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08
2025 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.58
2026 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33
2027 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55 1.55
2028 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15
2029 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78
2030 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97
2031 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37
5.4.4 Low Battery Cost Scenario with No Constraint
With no constraint of production capacity and charging infrastructure considered, the
penetration level is little higher for initial two years. However maximum penetration level
of 11.00% is achieved in FY 2031 (Figure 71 and Table 45).
10
8
6
4
2
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 71: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with No Constraint Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
82
Table 45: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with
No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14
2023 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2024 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.2210.2210.2210.2210.2210.22
2025 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95
2026 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53 4.53
2027 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
2028 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08 6.08
2029 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2030 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93 8.93
2031 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
Projected sale of electric two-wheelers, as shown in Figure 72 and Table 46, is much below
the assumed installed production capacity. Sale of electric two-wheelers reach 17.3 lakh
units in FY 2024 and 27.62 lakh units in FY 2031.
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 72: Sale and production in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with No Constraint
(production level A) Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
83
Table 46: Sale in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with no constraint (Lakh)
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26
2023 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.5911.5911.5911.5911.5911.59
2024 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3
2025 10.66 10.66 10.66 10.6610.6610.6610.6610.6610.66
2026 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58 8.58
2027 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85
2028 12.89 12.89 12.89 12.8912.8912.8912.8912.8912.89
2029 16.26 16.26 16.26 16.2616.2616.2616.2616.2616.26
2030 21.19 21.19 21.19 21.1921.1921.1921.1921.1921.19
2031 27.62 27.62 27.62 27.6227.6227.6227.6227.6227.62
The projected demand for charging infrastructure in the constraint level AX is shown in
Figure 73.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 73: Demand for charging points in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with No Constraint
(constrain level AX)
The battery demand, as shown in Figure 74 and Table 47, reaches 3.53 GWh in FY 2024
and 5.37 Gwh in FY 2031. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
84
5
4
3
2
1
0
Battery Demand (GWh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 74: Battery demand in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with No Constraint, production level A
Table 47: Projected battery demand in the Low Battery Cost Scenario with
No  Constraint (GWh)
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2023 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11
2024 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53
2025 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72 1.72
2026 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41 1.41
2027 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63
2028 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15
2029 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78 2.78
2030 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97 3.97
2031 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37 5.37
5.5 Technology Driven Scenario
Under this scenario the demand incentive is assumed to be withdrawn after FY 2024 and
battery cost is assumed to reduce by 8% annually. The range and power of electric two-
wheelers are both assumed to improve by 5% annually during the period FY 2024 to FY
2026 and by 10% in FY 2027 due to technological progress. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
85
5.5.1 Technology Driven Scenario with Full Constraint
In this sub-scenario the Initial growth in penetration of electric two-wheelers is driven
mainly by demand incentives and technological improvement in FY 2024, enabling it to
reach 12.42% in FY 2024. The penetration level is adversely impacted with the withdrawal
of demand incentives, but growth picks up again and finally reaches a value of 71.54% in
the FY 2031 (Figure 75 and Table 48).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
Improved
Battery
AX
AY
AZ
2027
Figure 75: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with Full Constraint,
production level A
Table 48: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with
Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03
2023 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2024 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42
2025 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
2026 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96
2027 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58
2028 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59
2029 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49
2030 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04
2031 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
86
The sale volume of electric two-wheelers is expected to reach 21.02 lakh units in FY 2024
and 179.69 lakh units in FY 2031 (Figure 76 and Table 49).
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
2027
Improved
Battery
Figure 76: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with Full
Constraint, production capacity level A
Table 49: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with Full
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56
2023 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
2024 21.02 21.02 21.02 21.0221.0221.0221.0221.0221.02
2025 16.68 16.68 16.68 16.6816.6816.6816.6816.6816.68
2026 18.87 18.87 18.87 18.8718.8718.8718.8718.8718.87
2027 27.23 27.23 27.23 27.2327.2327.2327.2327.2327.23
2028 37.31 37.31 37.31 37.3137.3137.3137.3137.3137.31
2029 57.18 57.18 57.18 57.1857.1857.1857.1857.1857.18
2030 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.8199.8199.8199.8199.8199.81
2031 179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69
The demand for charging points in this sub-scenario in the constraint level AX is shown
in Figure 77. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
87
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 77: Demand for charging infrastructure in the Technology Driven Scenario with Full Constraint,
constraint level AX
The battery demand rises to 6.26 GWh in the FY 2024, followed by a decline and then
again rises to reach a maximum value of 56.79 GWh in the FY 2031 (Figure 78 and
Table  50).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
50
40
30
20
10
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
Improved
Battery
2027
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 78: Battery demand in the Technology Driven Scenario with Full Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
88
Table 50: Battery demand in the Technology Driven Scenario with Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24
2023 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
2024 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26
2025 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21
2026 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65
2027 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36
2028 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44
2029 14.81 14.81 14.81 14.8114.8114.8114.8114.8114.81
2030 29.91 29.91 29.91 29.9129.9129.9129.9129.9129.91
2031 56.79 56.79 56.79 56.7956.7956.7956.7956.7956.79
5.5.2 Technology Driven Scenario with Production Constraint
In this sub-scenario, penetration of electric two-wheelers reaches 13.84% in the FY 2024,
followed by a slump on withdrawal of demand incentive and then rises again to reach
75.03% in the FY 2031 (Figure 79 and Table 51).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
Improved
Battery
AX
AY
AZ
2027
Figure 79: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with Production
Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
89
Table 51: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with
Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14
2023 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2024 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84
2025 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35
2026 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74
2027 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36
2028 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37
2029 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78
2030 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89
2031 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03
Little higher level of sale is achieved in the initial years and the sales figure for the FY 2024
is 21.02 lakh units. But the final sales figure in the FY 2031 is 179.69 lakhs, same as in the
case of Full Constraint sub-scenario (Figure 80 and Table 52).
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
2027
Improved
Battery
Figure 80: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with
Production Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
90
Table 52: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with
Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56
2023 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
2024 21.02 21.02 21.02 21.0221.0221.0221.0221.0221.02
2025 16.68 16.68 16.68 16.6816.6816.6816.6816.6816.68
2026 18.87 18.87 18.87 18.8718.8718.8718.8718.8718.87
2027 27.23 27.23 27.23 27.2327.2327.2327.2327.2327.23
2028 37.31 37.31 37.31 37.3137.3137.3137.3137.3137.31
2029 57.18 57.18 57.18 57.1857.1857.1857.1857.1857.18
2030 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.8199.8199.8199.8199.8199.81
2031 179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69
Projected demand for charging infrastructure is shown in Figure 81.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 81: Demand for charging points in the Technology Driven Scenario with Production Constraint
(Constraint level AX) Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
91
The demand for battery reaches 7.42 GWh in the FY 2024 and 59.17 GWh in the FY 2031
(Figure 82 and Table 53).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
Improved Battery
2027
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 82: Battery demand in the Technology Driven Scenario with Production Constraint, production
level A
Table 53 : Battery demand in the Technology Driven Scenario with Production
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2023 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11
2024 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42
2025 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52
2026 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08
2027 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62
2028 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87
2029 16.01 16.01 16.01 16.0116.0116.0116.0116.0116.01
2030 32.01 32.01 32.01 32.0132.0132.0132.0132.0132.01
2031 59.17 59.17 59.17 59.1759.1759.1759.1759.1759.17
5.5.3 Technology Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint
The projected penetration level I this case is similar to the Full Constraint sub-scenario
indicating that the charging infrastructure is the main constraint in the initial years. The
penetration levels projected for FY 2024 and finally in FY 2031 are same as in case of
Full Constraint sub-scenario (Figure 83 and Table 54). Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
92
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Penetration (%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Scenario: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducing @ 8% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
AX
BX
CX
Improved
Battery
2027
Figure 83: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with Charge
Constraint, infrastructure level X
Table 54: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with
Charge Constraint
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03
2023 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2024 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42
2025 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
2026 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96 9.96
2027 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58
2028 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59 17.59
2029 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49 25.49
2030 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04 42.04
2031 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 71.54 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
93
The projected total sale is shown in Figure 84 and Table 55. Sales projected for FY 2024
and FY 2031 are 21.02 lakh units and 179.69 lakh units respectively.
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
EVSale AX
EVSale BX
EVSale CX
EVProduction AX
EVProduction BX
EVProduction CX
Improved
Battery
2027
Figure 84: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with
Charge Constraint, infrastructure level X
Table 55: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with Charge
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56
2023 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
2024 21.02 21.02 21.02 21.0221.0221.0221.0221.0221.02
2025 16.68 16.68 16.68 16.6816.6816.6816.6816.6816.68
2026 18.87 18.87 18.87 18.8718.8718.8718.8718.8718.87
2027 27.23 27.23 27.23 27.2327.2327.2327.2327.2327.23
2028 37.31 37.31 37.31 37.3137.3137.3137.3137.3137.31
2029 57.18 57.18 57.18 57.1857.1857.1857.1857.1857.18
2030 99.81 99.81 99.81 99.8199.8199.8199.8199.8199.81
2031 179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69179.69 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
94
Figure 85 shows demand projected demand for charging infrastructure.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ChgConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 85: Demand for charging points in the Technology Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint
(constraint level AX)
The battery demand is projected to reach 6.26 GWh in FY 2024 and then 56.79 GWh in
FY 2031 (Figure 86 and Table 55).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
50
40
30
20
10
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducing @ 8% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
Improved Battery
2027
AX
BX
CX
Figure 86: Battery demand in the Technology Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint, infrastructure
level X Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
95
Table 56: Battery demand in the Technology Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24
2023 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
2024 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26
2025 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21
2026 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65 3.65
2027 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36 6.36
2028 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44 9.44
2029 14.81 14.81 14.81 14.81 14.81 14.81 14.81 14.81 14.81
2030 29.91 29.91 29.91 29.91 29.91 29.91 29.91 29.91 29.91
2031 56.79 56.79 56.79 56.79 56.79 56.79 56.79 56.79 56.79
5.5.4 Technology Driven Scenario with No Constraint
Penetration levels projected here are similar to the Production Constraint sub-scenario
again re-emphasizing the fact that availability of charging infrastructure is an important
issue during the initial years (Figure 87 and Table 57).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
Improved
Battery
AX
AY
AZ
2027
Figure 87: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with No Constraint,
production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
96
Table 57: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Technology Driven Scenario with
No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14
2023 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2024 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84
2025 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35 10.35
2026 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74 10.74
2027 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36 14.36
2028 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37 18.37
2029 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78 26.78
2030 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89 44.89
2031 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03 75.03
Projected sale of electric two-wheelers is little higher than that in Production Constraint
sub-scenario (Figure 88 and Table 58)
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
2027
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
Improved
Battery
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 88: Sale and production in the Technology Driven Scenario with No Constraint, production
level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
97
Table 58: Sale in the Technology Driven Scenario with No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26
2023 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.5911.5911.5911.5911.5911.59
2024 23.43 23.43 23.43 23.4323.4323.4323.4323.4323.43
2025 18.53 18.53 18.53 18.5318.5318.5318.5318.5318.53
2026 20.34 20.34 20.34 20.3420.3420.3420.3420.3420.34
2027 28.78 28.78 28.78 28.7828.7828.7828.7828.7828.78
2028 38.96 38.96 38.96 38.9638.9638.9638.9638.9638.96
2029 60.09 60.09 60.09 60.0960.0960.0960.0960.0960.09
2030 106.57106.57106.57106.57106.57106.57106.57106.57106.57
2031 188.46188.46188.46188.46188.46188.46188.46188.46188.46
Projected demand for charging infrastructure for the infrastructure level X is shown in
Figure 88.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 89: Demand for charging points in the Technology Driven Scenario with No Constraint
(constraint level AX) Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
98
Battery demand, as shown in Figure 90 and Table 59, reaches 11.92 GWh in the FY 2024
and 27.14 GWh in the FY 2031.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2024
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
Demand
Incentive
Performance
Improvement
Improved Battery
2027
AX
BX
CX
Figure 90: Battery demand in the Technology Driven Scenario with No Constraint, production level A
Table 59: Battery demand in the Technology Driven Scenario with No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2023 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11
2024 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42
2025 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52 3.52
2026 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08 4.08
2027 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62 6.62
2028 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87
2029 16.01 16.01 16.01 16.01 16.01 16.01 16.01 16.01 16.01
2030 32.01 32.01 32.01 32.01 32.01 32.01 32.01 32.01 32.01
2031 59.17 59.17 59.17 59.17 59.17 59.17 59.17 59.17 59.17
5.6 Incentive Driven Scenario
In this scenario the demand incentive is assumed to continue till FY 2031. Range and power
of the electric two-wheelers are assumed to remain at the present level and battery cost
reduces by 2% annually. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
99
5.6.1 Incentive Driven Scenario with Full Constraint
In this case no impact of enhancing the vehicle production capacity or number of installed
charging infrastructure is observed. The maximum level of penetration of electric two-
wheelers that can be achieved is about 22%. This situation, for a production capacity of
A, is depicted in Figure 91 and Table 60.
20
15
10
5
0
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 91: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with Full Constraint,
production level A
Table 60: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven scenario with Full
Constraints
Financial
Year
Penetration of Electric Two-wheelers (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91
2023 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88
2024 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2025 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37
2026 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41
2027 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7
2028 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.5111.5111.51
2029 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.5813.5813.58
2030 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.6916.6916.69
2031 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.8621.8621.86 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
100
The total sale and production of electric two-wheelers, too, remain at the same level for
all the constraint levels in the Full Constrained sub-scenario. The situation at production
Level A is shown in Figure 92 and Table 61.
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 92: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with Full
Constraint, production level A
Table 61: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven scenario with Full Constraints
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37
2023 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2024 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85
2025 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2
2026 15.93 15.93 15.93 15.9315.9315.9315.9315.9315.93
2027 19.45 19.45 19.45 19.4519.4519.4519.4519.4519.45
2028 24.42 24.42 24.42 24.4224.4224.4224.4224.4224.42
2029 30.48 30.48 30.48 30.4830.4830.4830.4830.4830.48
2030 39.62 39.62 39.62 39.6239.6239.6239.6239.6239.62
2031 54.91 54.91 54.91 54.9154.9154.9154.9154.9154.91 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
101
The demand for charging infrastructure is shown in Figure 93.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 93: Demand for charging points in Incentive Driven scenario with Full Constraint (constraint
level AX)
The projected battery demand for electric two-wheelers, as shown in Figure 94 and Table
62, has a similar trajectory as penetration and sale of vehicles. Demand value reaches
15.82 GWh in FY 2031.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 94: Battery demand in Incentive Driven Scenario with Full Constraints, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
102
Table 62: Battery demand in Incentive Driven Scenario with Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
2023 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2024 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68
2025 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54
2026 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99
2027 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90
2028 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18
2029 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05
2030 10.2310.23 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.23
2031 15.8215.82 15.82 15.82 15.82 15.82 15.82 15.82 15.82
5.6.2 Incentive Driven Scenario with Production Constraint
The projected penetration of electric two-wheelers in this case is shown in Figure 95 and
Table 63. It is 6.86% in FY 2024 and reaches 21.86% in FY 2031. Here, there is a difference
in the penetration level in the initial years as compared to the Full Constraint sub-scenario.
This is due to the fact that the constraint of charging infrastructure, which influences
penetration in the initial years, is not considered in this case.
20
15
10
5
0
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 95: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with Production
Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
103
Table 63: Penetration of electric two-wheeler in Incentive Driven scenario with
Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62
2023 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2024 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86
2025 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63
2026 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41
2027 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.7 9.7 9.7
2028 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.51
2029 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.58
2030 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.69
2031 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.86
Figure 96 and Table 64 that show the projections of electric two-wheelers sale along with
installed manufacturing capacity further make this clear. Since the purchase decision is not
influenced by the coverage of charging facilities there is some increase in the penetration
level at the beginning. The sale of EV2W during this period is limited only by the installed
vehicle manufacturing capacity. However, issues such as battery cost, range and power
of vehicle etc. limit the sale of electric two-wheelers, which is much below the assumed
production capacity. Sale volume of electric two-wheelers in the FY 2031 is 54.91 lakh units.
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 96: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with Production
Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
104
Table 64: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with Production
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale of Electric Two-Wheeler (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48
2023 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.9 8.9 8.9
2024 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6
2025 13.67 13.67 13.67 13.67 13.67 13.67 13.67 13.67 13.67
2026 15.93 15.93 15.93 15.93 15.93 15.93 15.93 15.93 15.93
2027 19.45 19.45 19.45 19.45 19.45 19.45 19.45 19.45 19.45
2028 24.42 24.42 24.42 24.42 24.42 24.42 24.42 24.42 24.42
2029 30.48 30.48 30.48 30.48 30.48 30.48 30.48 30.48 30.48
2030 39.62 39.62 39.62 39.62 39.62 39.62 39.62 39.62 39.62
2031 54.91 54.91 54.91 54.91 54.91 54.91 54.91 54.91 54.91
The charging infrastructure demand here is much below the planned infrastructure except
in the initial year. This is described in Figure 97.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 97: Demand for charging points in Incentive Driven Scenario with Production Constraint
(constraint level AX) Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
105
The battery demand reaches 15.82 GWh in FY 2031 (Figure 98 and Table 65).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 98: Battery demand in Incentive Driven Scenario with Production Constraint, production level A
Table 65: Battery demand in Incentive Driven Scenario with Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86
2023 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53
2024 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12
2025 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61
2026 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99
2027 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90
2028 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18
2029 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05
2030 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.2310.2310.2310.2310.2310.23
2031 15.82 15.82 15.82 15.8215.8215.8215.8215.8215.82
5.6.3 Incentive Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint
Penetration level that can be achieved in Charge Constrained scenario with charging
infrastructure level X is depicted in Figure 99 and Table 66. Production capacity of
electric two-wheelers does not have any impact on its market penetration, as per the
basic assumption under this scenario. It is assumed that there is supply of vehicles with
same sets of attributes and prices to match the demand. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
106
20
15
10
5
0
EV Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Scenario: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducing @ 2% annually
AX
BX
CX
Figure 99: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint,
infrastructure level X
As can be seen, penetration of electric two-wheelers here is less than that in the case
of Production Constraint sub-scenario during the initial years, as available charging
infrastructure is not sufficient. Since, in all three assumed infrastructure capacity levels
X, Y and Z, the installed charging points are assumed to be same in first two years, the
penetration values are same across all constraint sub-scenarios. In subsequent years, the
assumed charging infrastructure in the base level itself is higher than the latent demand
and hence there is no effect of enhancing charging infrastructure.
Table 66: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Drive Scenario with Charge
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91
2023 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88
2024 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2025 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37
2026 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41
2027 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7
2028 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.5111.5111.5111.5111.5111.51
2029 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.5813.5813.5813.5813.5813.58
2030 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.6916.6916.6916.6916.6916.69
2031 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.8621.8621.8621.8621.8621.86 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
107
Assumed production and projected sale of electric two-wheelers are shown in Figure 100
and Table 67.
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
EVSale AX
EVSale BX
EVSale CX
EVProduction AX
EVProduction BX
EVProduction CX
Figure 100: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with Charge
Constraint, infrastructure level X
Table 67: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with Charge
Constraint, infrastructure level X
Financial
Year
Projected Sale of Electric Two-Wheelers (Lakh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37
2023 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2024 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85
2025 13.20 13.20 13.20 13.2013.2013.2013.2013.2013.20
2026 15.93 15.93 15.93 15.9315.9315.9315.9315.9315.93
2027 19.45 19.45 19.45 19.4519.4519.4519.4519.4519.45
2028 24.42 24.42 24.42 24.4224.4224.4224.4224.4224.42
2029 30.48 30.48 30.48 30.4830.4830.4830.4830.4830.48
2030 39.62 39.62 39.62 39.6239.6239.6239.6239.6239.62
2031 54.91 54.91 54.91 54.9154.9154.9154.9154.9154.91 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
108
The demand for charging infrastructure for constraint level AX is shown in Figure 101.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ChgConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 101: Demand for charging points in Incentive Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint
(constraint level AX)
The demand for battery is shown in Figure 102 and Table 68.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducing @ 2% annually
AX
BX
CX
Figure 102: Demand for battery in Incentive Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint, infrastructure
level X Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
109
Table 68: Demand for battery in Incentive Driven Scenario with Charge Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
2023 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2024 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68
2025 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54
2026 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99
2027 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90
2028 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18
2029 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05
2030 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.2310.2310.2310.2310.2310.23
2031 15.82 15.82 15.82 15.8215.8215.8215.8215.8215.82
It can be seen that increased level of electric two-wheelers production does not increase
their market penetration, which is same as in the case of infrastructure level X.
5.6.4 Incentive Driven Scenario with No Constraint
The penetration that can be achieved with no constraint in the Incentive Drive Scenario
is presented in Figure 103 and Table 69.
20
15
10
5
0
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 103: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with No Constraint,
production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
110
For several years, the penetration level is higher as compared to the same achieved in Full
Constraint or Charge Constraint sub-scenarios due to insufficient charging infrastructure.
However, subsequently, installed capacity of charging points increases and is more than
enough with respect to the demand for electric two-wheelers for the given conditions.
Table 69: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with
No  Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62
2023 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2024 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86 6.86
2025 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63 7.63
2026 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41 8.41
2027 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70 9.70
2028 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.5111.5111.5111.5111.5111.51
2029 13.58 13.58 13.58 13.5813.5813.5813.5813.5813.58
2030 16.69 16.69 16.69 16.6916.6916.6916.6916.6916.69
2031 21.86 21.86 21.86 21.8621.8621.8621.8621.8621.86
The total annual sale of electric two-wheelers is shown in Figure 104 and Table 70.
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 104: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with
No  Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
111
Table 70: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Incentive Driven Scenario with No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48
2023 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90
2024 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6
2025 13.67 13.67 13.67 13.6713.6713.6713.6713.6713.67
2026 15.93 15.93 15.93 15.9315.9315.9315.9315.9315.93
2027 19.45 19.45 19.45 19.4519.4519.4519.4519.4519.45
2028 24.42 24.42 24.42 24.4224.4224.4224.4224.4224.42
2029 30.48 30.48 30.48 30.4830.4830.4830.4830.4830.48
2030 39.62 39.62 39.62 39.6239.6239.6239.6239.6239.62
2031 54.91 54.91 54.91 54.9154.9154.9154.9154.9154.91
Demand for charging facility is still much less than what is envisaged in the base case,
as shown in Figure 105.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 105: Demand for charging points in Incentive Driven Scenario with No Constraint
(constraint  level AX) Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
112
The projected annual demand of batteries for electric two-wheelers is shown in Figure 106
and Table 71.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 106: Battery Demand in Incentive Driven Scenario with No Constraint, production level A
Table 71: Battery demand in Incentive Driven Scenario with No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Demand for Battery (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86
2023 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53
2024 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12
2025 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61 2.61
2026 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99
2027 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
2028 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18 5.18
2029 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05 7.05
2030 10.23 10.23 10.23 10.2310.2310.2310.2310.2310.23
2031 15.82 15.82 15.82 15.8215.8215.8215.8215.8215.82
5.7 Battery Cost Challenged Scenario
Under this scenario the only major obstacle for larger penetration of electric mobility is the
cost of the battery, which is assumed to reduce at a CAGR of 2% only. Demand incentive
is present during all the period FY 2024 to FY 2031. Range and power improve by 5%
annually during FY 2024 to FY 2027. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
113
5.7.1 Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Full Constraint
In this case, demand incentive is present throughout the period and vehicle range and
power are also assumed to improve by 5% annually during FY2024 to FY 2027. The
projected market penetration of electric two-wheelers in the base level of production
reach a maximum value in the FY 2029 when the number of electric two-wheelers sold
equals the number of electric two-wheelers produced. Subsequently, sale of EV cannot
further increase and hence the relative market share of electric two-wheelers come down.
This is shown in Figure 107.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
Performance
Improvement
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 107: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with
Full  Constraints, production level A
However, in case of higher electric two-wheeler production capacity, the penetration level
is higher for the FY2030 and FY 2031, as shown in Figure 108.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: B, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
Performance
Improvement
BX
BY
BZ
Figure 108: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with
Full  Constraints, production level B Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
114
Details of market penetration of electric two-wheelers for various combinations of
production and charging infrastructure levels in this case are presented in Table 72.
Table 72: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario
with Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91
2023 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88
2024 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
2025 11.64 11.64 11.64 11.6411.6411.6411.6411.6411.64
2026 18.89 18.89 18.89 18.8918.8918.8918.8918.8918.89
2027 34.28 34.28 34.28 34.2834.2834.2834.2834.2834.28
2028 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.8164.8164.8164.8164.8164.81
2029 97.54 97.54 97.54 97.5497.5497.5497.5497.5497.54
2030 92.73 92.73 92.73 99.8799.8799.8799.8799.8799.87
2031 87.65 87.65 87.65 100 100 100 100 100 100
Projected sale and production of electric two-wheelers are shown in Figure 109 and
Table  73.
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
Performance
Improvement
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 109: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with
Full Constraint, production level A
At production level A, the maximum sale of electric two-wheelers is 220.15 lakh units. With
increased vehicle production levels, annual sale of 251.17 lakh units is achieved in FY 2031. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
115
Table 73: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Full
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37
2023 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2024 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7
2025 20.85 20.85 20.85 20.8520.8520.8520.8520.8520.85
2026 35.78 35.78 35.78 35.7835.7835.7835.7835.7835.78
2027 68.72 68.72 68.72 68.7268.7268.7268.7268.7268.72
2028 137.45137.45137.45137.45137.45137.45137.45137.45137.45
2029 218.87218.87218.87218.87218.87218.87218.87218.87218.87
2030 220.15220.15220.15237.09237.09237.09237.09237.09237.09
2031 220.15220.15220.15251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17
The demand for charging points is shown in Figure 110.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 110: Demand for charging points in Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Full Constraint Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
116
At base production level of electric two-wheelers, the projected battery demand shows
that 79.39 GWh of battery will be required in FY 2031 (Figure 111 and Table 74).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Performance
Improvement
Figure 111: Battery demand in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Full Constraint, production
level A
Table 74: Battery demand in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
2023 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2024 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45
2025 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95
2026 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1
2027 25.23 25.23 25.23 25.2325.2325.2325.2325.2325.23
2028 51.84 51.84 51.84 51.8451.8451.8451.8451.8451.84
2029 77.66 77.66 77.66 77.6677.6677.6677.6677.6677.66
2030 78.32 78.32 78.32 84.3584.3584.3584.3584.3584.35
2031 79.39 79.39 79.39 90.5490.5490.5490.5490.5490.54
5.7.2 Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Production Constraint
In this case, at the base level of production, penetration reaches a maximum value of
97.93% in FY 2029. The EV sale is limited by the installed vehicle production capacity from
this point onwards and hence the relative market share of electric two-wheelers comes
down in FY 2030 and FY 2031. This situation is shown in Figure 112. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
117
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
Performance
Improvement
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 112: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with
Production Constraint, production level A
However, as can be seen in Table 75, the market penetration of electric two-wheelers
is projected to reach 100% in the FY 2031 when there is higher installed manufacturing
capacity.
Table 75: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario
with Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62
2023 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2024 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15
2025 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42
2026 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79
2027 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45
2028 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49
2029 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93
2030 92.73 92.73 92.73 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87
2031 87.65 87.65 87.65 100 100 100 100 100 100
Projected sale of electric two-wheelers reaches 220.15 lakh units in FY 2031 in the base
level of production. Both For production levels B and C, it reaches 251.17 lakh units in the
same year (Figure 113 and Table 76). Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
118
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
Performance
Improvement
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 113: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Battery Cost Challenged with
Production Constraint, production level A
Table 76: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Battery Cost Challenged with Production
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48
2023 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.9
2024 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79
2025 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24
2026 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5 37.5
2027 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05
2028 141.02141.02 141.02141.02141.02141.02141.02141.02141.02
2029 219.74219.74 219.74219.74219.74219.74219.74219.74219.74
2030 220.15220.15 220.15237.09237.09237.09237.09237.09237.09
2031 220.15220.15 220.15 251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
119
Demand for charging infrastructure is shown in Figure 114.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 114: Demand for charging points in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Production
Constraint (constraint level AX)
Projected battery demand is also marginally higher as compared to Full Constraint sub-
scenario in the initial years but finally reaches the same value of 79.39 GWh in the FY 2031
(Figure 115 and Table 77).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Performance
Improvement
Figure 115: Battery demand in the Battery Cost Challenged scenario with Production Constraint,
production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
120
Table 77: Battery demand in the Battery Cost Challenged scenario with Production
Constraint
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86
2023 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53
2024 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91
2025 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65
2026 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.85
2027 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.72
2028 53.31 53.31 53.31 53.31 53.31 53.31 53.31 53.31 53.31
2029 77.87 77.87 77.87 77.87 77.87 77.87 77.87 77.87 77.87
2030 78.32 78.32 78.32 84.35 84.35 84.35 84.35 84.35 84.35
2031 79.39 79.39 79.39 90.54 90.54 90.54 90.54 90.54 90.54
5.7.3 Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Charge Constraint
In this case, the market penetration of electric two-wheelers reaches 100% in all production
capacities (Figure 116 and Table 78).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Penetration (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Scenario: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducing @ 2% annually
Performance
Improvement
AX
BX
CX
Figure 116: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Charge
Constraint, infrastructure level X Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
121
Table 78: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with
Charge Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91
2023 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88 3.88
2024 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
2025 11.64 11.64 11.64 11.6411.64 11.64 11.64 11.64 11.64
2026 18.89 18.89 18.89 18.8918.89 18.89 18.89 18.89 18.89
2027 34.28 34.28 34.28 34.2834.28 34.28 34.28 34.28 34.28
2028 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.8164.81 64.81 64.81 64.81 64.81
2029 97.54 97.54 97.54 97.5497.54 97.54 97.54 97.54 97.54
2030 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.8799.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87
2031 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
The sale of electric two-wheelers reaches 251.17 lakh units in the FY 2031 (Figure 117 and
Table 79).
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
EVSale AX
EVSale BX
EVSale CX
EVProduction AX
EVProduction BX
EVProduction CX
Performance
Improvement
Figure 117: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with
Charge Constraint, infrastructure level X Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
122
Table 79: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Charge
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37
2023 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21 6.21
2024 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7
2025 20.85 20.85 20.85 20.85 20.85 20.85 20.85 20.85 20.85
2026 35.78 35.78 35.78 35.78 35.78 35.78 35.78 35.78 35.78
2027 68.72 68.72 68.72 68.72 68.72 68.72 68.72 68.72 68.72
2028 137.45137.45 137.45137.45137.45137.45137.45137.45137.45
2029 218.87218.87 218.87218.87218.87218.87218.87218.87218.87
2030 237.09237.09 237.09237.09237.09237.09237.09237.09237.09
2031 251.17251.17 251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17
Projected demand for charging infrastructure is shown in Figure 118.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ChgConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 118: Demand for charging points in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Charge
Constraint (constraint level AX) Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
123
The projected battery demand, as shown in Figure 119 and Table 80, will reach 90.54 GWh
in FY 2031.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
80
60
40
20
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducing @ 2% annually
AX
BX
CX
Performance
Improvement
Figure 119: Battery demand in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Charge Constraint,
infrastructure level X
Table 80: Battery demand in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with Charge
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21
2023 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2024 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45
2025 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.95
2026 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1
2027 25.23 25.23 25.23 25.23 25.23 25.23 25.23 25.23 25.23
2028 51.84 51.84 51.84 51.84 51.84 51.84 51.84 51.84 51.84
2029 77.66 77.66 77.66 77.66 77.66 77.66 77.66 77.66 77.66
2030 84.35 84.35 84.35 84.35 84.35 84.35 84.35 84.35 84.35
2031 90.54 90.54 90.54 90.54 90.54 90.54 90.54 90.54 90.54
5.7.4 Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with No Constraint
When neither supply of the vehicles nor the charging infrastructure in place is a concern
under the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario, the penetration level will reach 100% in the
FY 2031. This can be seen in Figure 120 and Table 81. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
124
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 2% annually
Performance
Improvement
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 120: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with
No  Constraint, production level A
Table 81: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario
with No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62 3.62
2023 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56
2024 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15 8.15
2025 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42
2026 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79 19.79
2027 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45 35.45
2028 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49 66.49
2029 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93 97.93
2030 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87
2031 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
125
Figure 121 and Table 82 show that the sale of electric two-wheelers will gradually increase
to reach 54.91 lakh units in the FY 2031.
250
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 2% annually
Performance
Improvement
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 121: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with
No  Constraint, production level A
Table 82: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with
No  Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48 5.48
2023 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90 8.90
2024 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79 13.79
2025 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24 22.24
2026 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50 37.50
2027 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05 71.05
2028 141.02141.02 141.02141.02141.02141.02141.02141.02141.02
2029 219.74219.74 219.74219.74219.74219.74219.74219.74219.74
2030 237.09237.09 237.09237.09237.09237.09237.09237.09237.09
2031 251.17251.17 251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
126
Corresponding projections of the demand for charging points in the constraint level AX
is shown in Figure 122.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 2% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 122: Charging point demand in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with No Constraint
(constraint level AX)
The projected of battery demand, as shown in Figure 123 and Table 83, will reach
90.54  GWh in FY 2031.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
80
60
40
20
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 2% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Performance
Improvement
Figure 123: Battery demand in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with No Constraint, production
level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
127
Table 83: Battery demand in the Battery Cost Challenged Scenario with No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86
2023 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53 1.53
2024 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91 2.91
2025 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65 6.65
2026 12.85 12.85 12.85 12.8512.8512.8512.8512.8512.85
2027 25.72 25.72 25.72 25.7225.7225.7225.7225.7225.72
2028 53.31 53.31 53.31 53.3153.3153.3153.3153.3153.31
2029 77.87 77.87 77.87 77.8777.8777.8777.8777.8777.87
2030 84.35 84.35 84.35 84.3584.3584.3584.3584.3584.35
2031 90.54 90.54 90.54 90.5490.5490.5490.5490.5490.54
5.8 Same Performance Scenario
Under this scenario, all other favorable conditions are assumed to exist, except improvement
in the range and power of the vehicles, which are assumed to remain at the present level.
Thus, the demand incentive will remain in force and the battery cost will reduce by 8%
annually.
5.8.1 Same Performance Scenario with Full Constraint
In this case the projected market penetration at the base production level A is shown in
Figure 124.
100
80
60
40
20
0
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 124: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with Full
Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
128
It is observed that the penetration reaches 98.11% in FY 2029, when the number of electric
two-wheelers sold equals the installed production capacity in the base production level.
Since the sale of electric two-wheelers does not increase anymore, their overall share in
the market comes down to 92.73% and 87.65%, respectively in FY 2030 and FY 2031.
However, if supply of vehicles is enhanced, as in level B and C, the penetration reaches
100%. Such a situation is depicted in the Figure 125.
100
80
60
40
20
0
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: B, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
BX
BY
BZ
Figure 125: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with Full
Constraint, production level B
Details of the projected penetration of electric two-wheelers at various constraint levels
are provided in the Table 84.
Table 84: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with
Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03
2023 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2024 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06
2025 13.45 13.45 13.45 13.4513.4513.4513.4513.4513.45
2026 20.83 20.83 20.83 20.8320.8320.8320.8320.8320.83
2027 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.5538.5538.5538.5538.5538.55
2028 79.17 79.17 79.17 79.1779.1779.1779.1779.1779.17
2029 98.11 98.11 98.1199.8799.8799.8799.8799.8799.87
2030 92.73 92.73 92.73 100 100 100 100 100 100
2031 87.65 87.65 87.65 100 100 100 100 100 100 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
129
Projected sale of electric two-wheelers in the base production level A is shown in Figure 126.
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 126: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with Full
Constraints, production level A
From Table 85, it is observed that electric two-wheeler sale from FY 2029 onwards are
higher for production levels B and C.
Table 85: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with Full
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56
2023 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
2024 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.33
2025 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.09
2026 39.46 39.46 39.46 39.46 39.46 39.46 39.46 39.46 39.46
2027 77.27 77.27 77.27 77.27 77.27 77.27 77.27 77.27 77.27
2028 167.91167.91 167.91167.91167.91167.91167.91167.91167.91
2029 220.15220.15 220.15224.09224.09224.09224.09224.09224.09
2030 220.15220.15 220.15 237.4 237.4 237.4 237.4 237.4 237.4
2031 220.15220.15 220.15 251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17
The demand for charging points in this case, as shown in Figure 127, is significantly higher
as compared to other cases discussed so far, as the penetration of electric two-wheelers
is high. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
130
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 127: Demand for charging points in the Same Performance Scenario with Full Constraints
(constraint level AX)
Projected battery demands are shown in Figure 128 and Table 86. For electric two-wheelers
production level A, the maximum battery demand in FY 2031 is 107.57 GWh. However, in the
electric two-wheelers production levels B and C, the battery demand reaches 122.73 GWh
in the FY 2031.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: B, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
BX
BY
BZ
Figure 128: Battery demand in Same Performance Scenario with Full Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
131
Table 86: Battery demand in the Same Performance Scenario with Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (kWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24
2023 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
2024 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08
2025 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86
2026 11.98 11.98 11.98 11.9811.9811.9811.9811.9811.98
2027 29.26 29.26 29.26 29.2629.2629.2629.2629.2629.26
2028 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8
2029 98.7 98.7 98.7 100.47100.47100.47100.47100.47100.47
2030 103.43103.43103.43 111.53111.53111.53111.53111.53111.53
2031 107.57107.57107.57122.73122.73122.73122.73122.73122.73
5.8.2 Same Performance Scenario with Production Constraint
Projected penetration of electric two-wheelers here is similar as in the case of Full
Constraint sub-scenario, except in initial few years, when it is slightly higher. Penetration
reaches maximum value supported by the base production level in FY 2029. The situation
is depicted in Figure 129.
100
80
60
40
20
0
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 129: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with Production
Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
132
The details of the projected penetration levels for all constraint levels are in the Table 87.
The penetration level is higher for level B and C since FY 2029 onwards.
Table 87: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with
Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14
2023 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2024 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.2210.2210.2210.2210.2210.22
2025 14.49 14.49 14.49 14.4914.4914.4914.4914.4914.49
2026 23.03 23.03 23.03 23.0323.0323.0323.0323.0323.03
2027 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.3443.3443.3443.3443.3443.34
2028 85.64 85.64 85.64 85.6485.6485.6485.6485.6485.64
2029 98.11 98.11 98.11 100 100 100 100 100 100
2030 92.73 92.73 92.73 100 100 100 100 100 100
2031 87.65 87.65 87.65 100 100 100 100 100 100
Projected sale of electric two-wheelers is shown in Figure 130 and Table 88. The sale of
electric two-wheelers reaches 220.15 lakh units in the FY 2031 for production level A.
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 130: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Same Performance Scenario with
Production Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
133
For production levels B and C, the sales volume in FY 2031 reaches 251.17 lakh units, as
shown in Table 88.
Table 88: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Same Performance Scenario with Production
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26
2023 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.5911.5911.5911.5911.5911.59
2024 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3
2025 25.94 25.94 25.94 25.9425.9425.9425.9425.9425.94
2026 43.63 43.63 43.63 43.6343.6343.6343.6343.6343.63
2027 86.87 86.87 86.87 86.8786.8786.8786.8786.8786.87
2028 181.62 181.62 181.62181.62181.62181.62181.62181.62181.62
2029 220.15 220.15 220.15224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38
2030 220.15 220.15 220.15237.4237.4237.4237.4237.4237.4
2031 220.15 220.15 220.15251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17
The projected demand for charging infrastructure in constraint level AX is shown in Figure
131. The latent demand is higher than the actual demand during the last two years.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 131: Demand of charging points in the Same Performance Scenario with Production Constraint
(constraint level AX) Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
134
The projected battery demand reaches 107.57 GWh in FY 2031 at the production level A
and 122.73 GWh at production levels B and C. These are shown in Figure 132 and Table 89.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 132: Battery demand in the Same Performance Scenario with Production Constraint, production
level A
Table 89: Battery demand in the Same Performance Scenario with Production
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2023 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11
2024 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53
2025 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66
2026 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68
2027 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62
2028 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66
2029 98.69 98.69 98.69 100.59100.59100.59100.59100.59100.59
2030 103.43103.43 103.43 111.53111.53111.53111.53111.53111.53
2031 107.57107.57 107.57122.73122.73122.73122.73122.73122.73
5.8.3 Same Performance Scenario with Charge Constraint
Projected penetration of electric two-wheelers in this case is shown in Figure 133 and Table
90. In the initial years it is less as compared to that in the Full Constraint sub-scenario.
However, the penetration reaches 100% in FY 2031 and stays at that level, since, supply
of electric two-wheelers is not an issue. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
135
100
80
60
40
20
0
EV Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Scenario: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducing @ 8% annually
AX
BX
CX
Figure 133: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with Charge
Constraints, infrastructure level X
Table 90: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with
Charge Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03
2023 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2024 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06 9.06
2025 13.45 13.45 13.45 13.45 13.45 13.45 13.45 13.45 13.45
2026 20.83 20.83 20.83 20.83 20.83 20.83 20.83 20.83 20.83
2027 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.55 38.55
2028 79.17 79.17 79.17 79.17 79.17 79.17 79.17 79.17 79.17
2029 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87 99.87
2030 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2031 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
136
Projected sale of electric two-wheelers is shown in Figure 134 and Table 91.
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
EVSale AX
EVSale BX
EVSale CX
EVProduction AX
EVProduction BX
EVProduction CX
Figure 134: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in Same Performance Scenario with Charge
Constraint, infrastructure level X
Table 91: Sale of electric two-wheelers in Same Performance Scenario with Charge
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56
2023 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
2024 15.33 15.33 15.33 15.3315.3315.3315.3315.3315.33
2025 24.09 24.09 24.09 24.0924.0924.0924.0924.0924.09
2026 39.46 39.46 39.46 39.4639.4639.4639.4639.4639.46
2027 77.27 77.27 77.27 77.2777.2777.2777.2777.2777.27
2028 167.91167.91167.91167.91167.91167.91167.91167.91167.91
2029 224.09224.09224.09224.09224.09224.09224.09224.09224.09
2030 237.4 237.4 237.4 237.4237.4237.4237.4237.4237.4
2031 251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
137
The demand for charging infrastructure is shown in the Figure 135.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ChgConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 135: Demand for charging points in the Same Performance Scenario with Charge Constraint
(constraint level AX)
The projected battery demand, as shown in Figure 136 and Table 92, reach 122.73 GWh
in FY 2031.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducing @ 8% annually
AX
BX
CX
Figure 136: Battery demand in the Same Performance Scenario with Charge Constraint, infrastructure
level X Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
138
Table 92: Battery demand in the Same Performance Scenario with Charge Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24
2023 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
2024 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08 3.08
2025 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86 5.86
2026 11.98 11.98 11.98 11.9811.9811.9811.9811.9811.98
2027 29.26 29.26 29.26 29.2629.2629.2629.2629.2629.26
2028 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8
2029 100.47100.47 100.47100.47100.47100.47100.47100.47100.47
2030 111.53111.53 111.53111.53111.53111.53111.53111.53111.53
2031 122.73122.73 122.73122.73122.73122.73122.73122.73122.73
5.8.4 Same Performance Scenario with No Constraint
Projected penetration of electric two-wheelers for this case is shown in Figure 137 and
Table 93.
100
80
60
40
20
0
EV2W Pentration (%)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 137: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with
No  Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
139
Table 93: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with
No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14
2023 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2024 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22 10.22
2025 14.49 14.49 14.49 14.49 14.49 14.49 14.49 14.49 14.49
2026 23.03 23.03 23.03 23.03 23.03 23.03 23.03 23.03 23.03
2027 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.34 43.34
2028 85.64 85.64 85.64 85.64 85.64 85.64 85.64 85.64 85.64
2029 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2030 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2031 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
At the base production level A, projected sale of electric two-wheelers will surpass the
production capacity in the FY 2029, as shown in the Figure 138.
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
250
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Figure 138: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with
No  Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
140
Projections of sale are same for all combinations of production and infrastructure
constraints, as shown in Table 94.
Table 94: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Same Performance Scenario with
No  Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26
2023 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.59
2024 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3
2025 25.94 25.94 25.94 25.94 25.94 25.94 25.94 25.94 25.94
2026 43.63 43.63 43.63 43.63 43.63 43.63 43.63 43.63 43.63
2027 86.87 86.87 86.87 86.87 86.87 86.87 86.87 86.87 86.87
2028 181.62181.62 181.62181.62181.62181.62181.62181.62181.62
2029 224.38224.38 224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38
2030 237.4 237.4 237.4 237.4 237.4 237.4 237.4 237.4 237.4
2031 251.17251.17 251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17
Projected demand for charging points is shown in Figure 139.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 139: Demand for charging points in the Same Performance Scenario with No Constraint
(constraint level AX) Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
141
The battery demand is projected to reach 122.73 GWh in FY 2031 (Figure 140 and Table 95).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Figure 140: Battery demand in the Same Performance Scenario with No Constraint, production level A
Table 95: Battery demand in the Same Performance Scenario with No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2023 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11
2024 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53
2025 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66 6.66
2026 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68 13.68
2027 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62 33.62
2028 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66
2029 100.59100.59 100.59100.59100.59100.59100.59100.59100.59
2030 111.53111.53 111.53111.53111.53111.53111.53111.53111.53
2031 122.73122.73 122.73122.73122.73122.73122.73122.73122.73
5.9 Optimistic Scenario
Under this scenario, all factors that have positive influence on the adoption of electric
two-wheelers are present. The demand incentive is assumed to be in place throughout
the period and the battery cost is assumed to reduce by 8% annually. It is also assumed
in addition that the range and power of the vehicle will improve by 5% during FY 2024
to FY 2026 and by 10% in the FY 2027. Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
142
5.9.1 Optimistic Scenario with Full Constraint
The penetration of electric two-wheelers reaches 100% in FY 2028 and subsequently due
to due to supply-constraint in the base production level, relative share of electric two-
wheelers come down. However, with increased production capacity, 100% share of electric
two-wheelers can be maintained. This is apparent from Figure 141 and Table 96.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Performance
Improvement
Improved Battery2027
Figure 141: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Full Constraint,
production level A
Table 96: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Full
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03
2023 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2024 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42
2025 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26
2026 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84
2027 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48
2028 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2029 98.11 98.11 98.11 100 100 100 100 100 100
2030 92.73 92.73 92.73 100 100 100 100 100 100
2031 87.65 87.65 87.65 100 100 100 100 100 100 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
143
There is a clear impact of technological improvements on the projected sale of electric
two-wheelers in comparison to Same Performance Scenario with Full Constraints (Figure
142 and Table 97).
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Performance
Improvement
Improved Battery2027
Figure 142: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Full
Constraint, production level A
Table 97: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Full Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56
2023 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
2024 21.02 21.02 21.02 21.0221.0221.0221.0221.0221.02
2025 47.03 47.03 47.03 47.0347.0347.0347.0347.0347.03
2026 117.15117.15117.15117.15117.15117.15117.15117.15117.15
2027 199.41199.41199.41199.41199.41199.41199.41199.41199.41
2028 212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08
2029 220.15220.15220.15224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38
2030 220.15220.15220.15237.4237.4237.4237.4237.4237.4
2031 220.15220.15220.15251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
144
The projected demand for charging infrastructure in the AX constraint level is shown in
Figure 143.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 143: Demand for charging points in the Optimistic Scenario with Full Constraints (constraint
level AX)
Projected battery demand reaches 114.66 GWh in FY 2031 at the production level A and
130.82 GWh in production levels B and C (Figure 144 and Table 98).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: FullConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Performance
Improvement
Improved Battery2027
Figure 144: Battery demand for electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Full Constraint,
production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
145
Table 98: Battery demand for electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Full
Constraint:
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24
2023 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
2024 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26
2025 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95
2026 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58
2027 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17
2028 101.19101.19 101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19
2029 109 109 109 111.09111.09111.09111.09111.09111.09
2030 111.95111.95 111.95120.72120.72120.72120.72120.72120.72
2031 114.66114.66 114.66130.82130.82130.82130.82130.82130.82
5.9.2 Optimistic Scenario with Production Constraint
In this case the penetration level is increased during the initial years as compared to Full
Constraint sub-scenario due to availability of adequate charging infrastructure. The effect
of technological improvement is observed here also (Figure 145 and Table 99) when
compared to Same Performance Scenario with Production Constraint.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Improved Battery2027
Performance
Improvement
Figure 145: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Production Constraint,
production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
146
Table 99 Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with
Production Constraint:
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14
2023 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2024 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84
2025 28.85 28.85 28.85 28.85 28.85 28.85 28.85 28.85 28.85
2026 65.85 65.85 65.85 65.85 65.85 65.85 65.85 65.85 65.85
2027 99.74 99.74 99.74 99.74 99.74 99.74 99.74 99.74 99.74
2028 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2029 98.11 98.11 98.11 100 100 100 100 100 100
2030 92.73 92.73 92.73 100 100 100 100 100 100
2031 87.65 87.65 87.65 100 100 100 100 100 100
Projected electric two-wheeler sale is shown in Figure 146 and Table 100.
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Performance
Improvement
Improved Battery2027
Figure 146: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Production
Constraint, production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
147
Table 100: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Production
Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26
2023 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.5911.5911.5911.5911.5911.59
2024 23.43 23.43 23.43 23.4323.4323.4323.4323.4323.43
2025 51.66 51.66 51.66 51.6651.6651.6651.6651.6651.66
2026 124.75124.75124.75124.75124.75124.75124.75124.75124.75
2027 199.93199.93199.93199.93199.93199.93199.93199.93199.93
2028 212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08
2029 220.15220.15220.15224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38
2030 220.15220.15220.15237.40237.40237.40237.40237.40237.40
2031 220.15220.15220.15251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17
Figure 147 shows the projections of demand for charging points in the constraint level AX.
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 147: Demand for charging points in the Optimistic Scenario with Production Constraint,
(constraint level AX) Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
148
The projected battery demand reaches 114.66 GWh at the production level A and
130.82  GWh at the production levels B and C (Figure 148 and Table 101).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ProdConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Performance
Improvement
Improved Battery2027
Figure 148: Battery demand for electric two-wheelers in Optimistic Scenario with Production
Constraint, production level A
Table 101: Battery demand for electric two-wheelers in Optimistic Scenario with
Production Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2023 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11
2024 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42
2025 20.71 20.71 20.71 20.71 20.71 20.71 20.71 20.71 20.71
2026 56.64 56.64 56.64 56.64 56.64 56.64 56.64 56.64 56.64
2027 91.35 91.35 91.35 91.35 91.35 91.35 91.35 91.35 91.35
2028 101.19101.19 101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19
2029 109.00109.00 109.00 111.09111.09111.09111.09111.09111.09
2030 111.95111.95 111.95120.72120.72120.72120.72120.72120.72
2031 114.66114.66 114.66130.82130.82130.82130.82130.82130.82 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
149
5.9.3 Optimistic Scenario with Charge Constraint
Penetration of electric two-wheelers reach 100% in FY 2028 itself and stays at that level
(Figure 149 and Table 102).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV Penetration (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Scenario: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducing @ 2% annually
AX
BX
CX
Performance
Improvement
Figure 149: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Charge Constraint,
infrastructure level X
Table 102: Projected penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario
with Charge Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03
2023 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82 5.82
2024 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42 12.42
2025 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26 26.26
2026 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84 61.84
2027 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48 99.48
2028 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2029 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2030 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2031 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
150
Projected sale of electric two-wheelers reaches 251.17 lakh units in FY 2031. However,
impacts of technological improvement are observed in comparison to Same Performance
Scenario with Charge Constraint (Figure 150 and Table 103).
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
EVSale AX
EVSale BX
EVSale CX
EVProduction AX
EVProduction BX
EVProduction CX
Performance
Improvement
Improved Battery2027
Figure 150: Sale and production of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Charge
Constraint, infrastructure level X
Table 103: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with Charge
Constraint
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.56
2023 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31 9.31
2024 21.02 21.02 21.02 21.02 21.02 21.02 21.02 21.02 21.02
2025 47.03 47.03 47.03 47.03 47.03 47.03 47.03 47.03 47.03
2026 117.15 117.15 117.15117.15117.15117.15117.15117.15117.15
2027 199.41 199.41 199.41199.41199.41199.41199.41199.41199.41
2028 212.08 212.08 212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08
2029 224.38 224.38 224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38
2030 237.40 237.40 237.40237.40237.40237.40237.40237.40237.40
2031 251.17 251.17 251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17 Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
151
The demand for charging infrastructure at constraint level AX is described in Figure 151.
Since it is Charge Constraint scenario, the maximum demand for charging points is equal
to the planned charging points starting from the FY 2026.
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: ChgConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 151: Demand for charging points in the Optimistic Scenario with Charge Constraint (constraint
level AX)
Battery demand will reach 130.82 GWh in FY 2031 (Figure 152 and Table 104).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: ChgConstr
Charging Infra Level: X, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducing @ 8% annually
AX
BX
CX
Performance
Improvement
Improved Battery2027
Figure 152: Battery demand in the Optimistic Scenario with Charge Constraint, infrastructure level X Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
152
Table 104: Battery demand in the Optimistic Scenario with Charge Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX BX CX AY BY CY AZ BZ CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24
2023 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59
2024 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26
2025 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95 18.95
2026 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58 53.58
2027 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17 91.17
2028 101.19101.19 101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19
2029 111.09111.09 111.09111.09111.09111.09111.09111.09111.09
2030 120.72120.72 120.72120.72120.72120.72120.72120.72120.72
2031 130.82130.82 130.82130.82130.82130.82130.82130.82130.82
5.9.4 Optimistic Scenario with No Constraint
The projected penetration reaches 99.74% in FY2027 itself and subsequently remains at
100% (Figure 153 and Table 105).
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
EV2W Penetration (%)
100
80
60
40
20
0
Penetration of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduction @ 8% annually
AX
AY
AZ
Improved Battery2027
Performance
Improvement
Figure 153: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with No Constraint,
production level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
153
Table 105: Penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with
No  Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Penetration (%)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94
2022 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14
2023 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24 7.24
2024 13.8413.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84 13.84
2025 28.8528.85 28.85 28.85 28.85 28.85 28.85 28.85 28.85
2026 65.8565.85 65.85 65.85 65.85 65.85 65.85 65.85 65.85
2027 99.7499.74 99.74 99.74 99.74 99.74 99.74 99.74 99.74
2028 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2029 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2030 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
2031 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Projected sale exceeds the assumed production capacity from the FY 2028 onwards
(Figure 154 and 106).
250
200
150
100
50
0
Production and Sale of EV 2W (Lakh)
2022
2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Production and Sale of EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reduces @ 8% annually
Performance
Improvement
EV Sale AX
EV Sale AY
EV Sale AZ
EV Production AX
EV Production AY
EV Production AZ
Improved Battery2027
Figure 154: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with No Constraint, production
level A Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
154
Table 106: Sale of electric two-wheelers in the Optimistic Scenario with No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Sale (Lakh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44
2022 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26 6.26
2023 11.59 11.59 11.59 11.5911.5911.5911.5911.5911.59
2024 23.43 23.43 23.43 23.4323.4323.4323.4323.4323.43
2025 51.66 51.66 51.66 51.6651.6651.6651.6651.6651.66
2026 124.75 124.75 124.75124.75124.75124.75124.75124.75124.75
2027 199.93 199.93 199.93199.93199.93199.93199.93199.93199.93
2028 212.08 212.08 212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08212.08
2029 224.38 224.38 224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38224.38
2030 237.4 237.4 237.4 237.4237.4237.4237.4237.4237.4
2031 251.17 251.17 251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17251.17
The projected demand for charging points at constraint level AX is shown in Figure 155.
Since no constraint of charging infrastructure is considered, the demand for charging
points is more than the assumed installed capacity from FY 2026 onwards.
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Number of Charging Points (Thousand)
20212022202320242025202620272028202920302031
Financial Year
Demand for Charging ports: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: A, Infrastructure Level: X
Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery price reduction @ 8% per annum
Charger Planned
Charger Actual Demand
Figure 155: Demand for charging points in the Optimistic Scenario with No Constraints,
(constraint  level AX) Projected Scenarios of EV Two-Wheelers PenetrationForecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India
155
Projected battery demand, as shown in Figure 156 and Table 107, reaches 130.82 GWh in
FY 2031.
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Financial Year
Battery Demand (GWh)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Battery Demand for EV 2W: Constraint: NoConstr
Production Level: C, Demand Incentive Till: 2031
Battery cost reducion @ 8% annually
CX
CY
CZ
Performance
Improvement
Improved Battery2027
Figure 156: Battery demand in the Optimistic Scenario with No Constraint, production level A
Table 107: Battery demand in the Optimistic Scenario with No Constraint
Financial
Year
Projected Battery Demand (GWh)
AX AY AZ BX BY BZ CX CY CZ
2021 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
2022 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11
2023 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11 2.11
2024 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42 7.42
2025 20.71 20.71 20.71 20.7120.7120.7120.7120.7120.71
2026 56.64 56.64 56.64 56.6456.6456.6456.6456.6456.64
2027 91.35 91.35 91.35 91.3591.3591.3591.3591.3591.35
2028 101.19 101.19 101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19101.19
2029 111.09 111.09 111.09111.09111.09111.09111.09111.09111.09
2030 120.72 120.72 120.72120.72120.72120.72120.72120.72120.72
2031 130.82 130.82 130.82130.82130.82130.82130.82130.82130.82 Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India 156
CONCLUSIONS6
Based on this analysis, we can conclude that India is at the cross-roads and a shift
to electric mobility, particularly, in the two-wheelers segment, may happen faster than
anticipated. There is a positive mindset about electric mobility among the consumers
and recent rise in the price of petroleum fuels has played a major role towards this shift.
Public awareness about electric mobility has increased. Demand incentives increase the
penetration level of electric two-wheelers. But more important issues appear to be the
manufacturing cost of the vehicle which is mainly influenced by the cost of the battery.
Reduced dependence on the import of electric vehicle components and sub-systems may
be one of the crucial factors in enhancing domestic manufacturing capacity along with
other policy related measures.
During the initial stage, due to low level of electric vehicle penetration, higher ratio of
charging points to electric vehicles will be required to instill confidence in the minds of the
customers. While at later stage the absolute number of charging points should increase,
this ratio may even come down. Such a scenario in any case, is expected to happen.
Apart from the policy and infrastructure related issues, technology plays an important role
in market penetration of electric vehicles. The results clearly demonstrate how improvement
in the performance of the vehicle over a period of three years, along with improved battery
can drastically increase penetration, overcoming the impacts of withdrawal of incentives.
Battery cost is another important parameter and technology can play an important role in
reducing cost of the battery and other components, many of which are presently imported.
Certain aspects which have not been discussed in this report, such as resource availability
safety etc. may prove to be important issues for widespread adoption of electric mobility
and technology has a key role in addressing these issues.
At certain point of time in future there may be an appropriate ecosystem for enforcement
of a regulation towards electric mobility or other clean transport options. But as the
present analysis shows, there are plenty of opportunities for accelerating adoption of
electric vehicles through technological improvements other interventions. FORECASTING PENETRATION OF ELECTRIC TWO-WHEELERS IN INDIA
FORECASTING PENETRATION OF
ELECTRIC
TWO-WHEELERS
IN INDIA
A BOTTOM-UP ANALYSIS