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Renewable Energy
Resource Adequacy
Planning to meet RPO
by the States in India
VENUGOPAL MOTHKOOR | DR ANJALI JAIN | RAJNATH RAM
(FEBRUARY 2024) 2
Disclaimer
Views expressed in this paper are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views
of NITI Aayog.
Suggested Citation
Mothkoor V, Jain A, Ram R. Renewable energy resource adequacy planning to meet
RPO by the states in India. NITI Aayog, Government of India. 2024 February. 3
BACKGROUND
India has unleashed its climate ambitions with the announcement of updated Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs) and submission of the Long-Term Low Carbon Development Strategy laying
down the path for resilient, inclusive, and sustainable growth. In line with these announcements,
the Ministry of Power (MoP), vide F. No. 09/13/2021-RCM dated 19.09.22, has notified a year-
wise trajectory of Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs) including Energy Storage Obligations
till 2030. According to this, the obligated entities, mainly DISCOMs, in each state, are required
to meet their minimum share (24.3% in 2023 to 43.3% in 2030) of electricity purchase from
Renewable Energy (RE) sources. These obligations will ensure the consumption of renewable
in the country and subsequently will help to achieve the climate action goals of the government
wherein it aims to increase the share of non-fossil fuel-based power capacity to 50% by 2030.
However, RE sources have inherent spatial and temporal variability that leads to uneven potential
and energy yield in each state. States may exhibit surplus or deficit RE potential to meet annual
renewable obligations. Further, the requirement of energy storage may also change considering
the temporal variability of RE, available flexible resources for power generation within the states
and inter-state electricity trade.
In this context, the study, carried out with the support of CEA and MNRE, presents a detailed
analysis of i) RE technical potential that can be harnessed to meet RPOs of each state ii) RE
capacity that needs to be procured by the deficit states from other RE-rich states iii) Storage
requirement to meet required grid balancing, by looking into various parameters such as RE
capacity utilization factors, available potential, past generation and expected technological
improvements. The utmost care has been taken for RE procurement decisions by deficit states from
neighbouring states to reduce transmission infrastructure and related costs. This study provides a
state-wise capacity addition plan for India which can be leveraged both by state governments and
RE developers. The government can use the estimates for developing a bidding calendar while
industry can use it for undertaking necessary investments in the respective states. 4
1. Introduction
India is now the most populous country with 18% of the world’s population and fifth largest
economy in the world at 3.3 billion USD (2022) and third largest in terms of Purchasing Power
Parity (PPP). However, in per-capita terms, India’s per capita GDP is USD 2,379, a fraction
compared to China’s GDP of USD 12,814, and the US GDP of USD 76,348
1
. Also, India’s per-capita
primary energy consumption is 1/3
rd
of global average and 1/10
th
of the USA
2
. The Prime Minister
of India during his Independence Day speech on 15 August 2022, made a clarion call for India
to become a developed nation by 2047. This necessitates a multifold increase in infrastructure
requirements and improvement in the living standards. Energy requirements will grow manifold
as India embarks on path to a developed nation by 2047.
Historically, economic development has been synonymous with fossil fuel consumption and
dependency. India, when confronted with the same challenge, has chosen a sustainable path to
achieve the country’s developmental goals. India has contributed only about 4% of the global
cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between 1850 and 2019
3
and India’s per-capita emissions
stand at half of the global average, 1/4
th
of China and 1/8
th
of the USA
4
. India is amongst the top 5
best-performing countries in Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI 2023) and is best among
G-20 countries. India has the world’s fourth highest renewable installed capacity after China, the
USA, and Germany.
India has unleashed its climate ambitions with the announcement of updated National Determined
Contributions (NDCs) and submission of the “Long-Term Low Carbon Development Strategy”. The
achievement of 50% cumulative power installed capacity from non-fossil sources is one of the
quantitative commitments under updated NDCs.
Since 2010-11, the Ministry of Power, Government of India, has been relying upon the use
of Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) as an instrument to meet the Intended National
Determined Contributions (INDCs) and promote renewable energy deployment in the country
5
.
In the erstwhile RPO, the obligations are categorized under Solar and Non-Solar obligations. Due
to technology maturity and strong commercial market, solar capacity addition increased rapidly
while other technologies such as Wind and Hydro did not increase at same scale. Ministry of
Power has amended the erstwhile trajectory with an objective to promote development of Wind
and Hydro with targets for each till 2030. Solar has been clubbed with other RE sources such as
Biomass
6
. This will facilitate deployment of technologies with high Capacity Utilization Factors
(CUFs) and also technologies which play a critical role in providing grid flexibility. According to
the new trajectory announced, each state is obligated to meet a minimum of 43.3% of the power
demand from renewable sources by 2030.
1
International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, April 2023.
2
BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2021
3
India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy (LT LEDS): Subm ission to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Government of India.
4
BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2021.
5
List of RPO regulations accessed from https://www.recregistryindia.nic.in/index.php/publics/Reference_Documents (as on 15-
June-2023)
6
RPO notification, Ministry of Power, Government of India. Accessed from https://powermin.gov.in/sites/default/files/Renewable_
Purchase_Obligation_and_Energy_Storage_Obligation_Trajectory_till_2029 _30.pdf 5
The effectiveness of RPO depends on many factors such as the perception of the state on
competitiveness of renewable energy compared with other fossil sources, availability of grid
i n f r a s t r u c t u r e t o i n t e g r a t e R E a n d e x i s t e n c e o f s t r o n g c o m p l i a n c e m e c h a n i s m . 1 7
th
Standing Committee
on Energy has analyzed the RPO performance across states and found that RPO compliance in 2019-
20 varies from 3.7% in Manipur to 250% in Karnataka. The report found that only six states have
achieved full compliance with notified RPO trajectory
7
. Therefore, the role of states becomes critical
in achieving RPO. The Draft Electricity Amendment Bill 2022 has proposed the penalty punishment
for non-compliance.
The capacity planning has been an after-thought in most states as a result of which RPO compliance
has been unsatisfactory. The capacity planning is more critical primarily on account of varying CUF
and available RE potential across the states. Figure 1 shows varying solar and wind CUFs in states
with RE capacities. As can be observed from the figure, the solar CUF varies from 1.3%-27%, while for
wind, it varies from 13.4%-32%.
RJ-23%
JK-5%
MP-19%
MH-14%
UP-17%
GJ-13%
KA-21%
AP-20%
OR-18%
CG-17%
TN-16%
TS-18%
BR-11%
JH-4%
WB-8%
AR-22%
HP-10%
PB-27%
UK-10%
AS-17%
HR-7%
KL-16%
ML-1%
MZ-8%
MN-14%
NL-4%
TR-7%
SK-3%
GA-6%
DL-12%
Figure-1a: CUF of Solar
across the states
7
1 7
th
Parliamentary Standing Committee Report. Accessed from https://eparlib.nic.in/bitstream/123456789/800881/1/17_Energy_17.
pdf#search=null%20Departmentally%20Related%20Standing%20Committees%20Committee%20on%20Energy 6
1.1 Objective
The aim of this study is to fill this critical gap by providing state-wise capacity that can be mobilized
within the state to meet the RPO target and capacity that needs to be procured from other states.
The mobilization of potential within the state also results in the creation of co-benefits in the form of
local employment and economy boost apart from ability to generate renewable energy. This study
also estimates the amount of storage requirement in each region to facilitate the smooth integration
of RE into grid and preserve the resilience of grid.
2. Methodology
This section provides an overview of the data and methodology adopted to estimate the capacity
that needs to be installed from within the state’s potential and/or procured from other states to meet
the RPO target. The care has been taken to source RE from neighbouring states to reduce cost of
transportation. The methodology for estimation of storage is also described in the section below.
2.1 Data
The data on state-wise installed & allocated capacities, generation, and estimated resource potential
of RE till FY 2021-22 has been obtained from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE),
Government of India
8,9,10,11
(See Annexure-1 for state-wise resource potential). The 20
th
EPS report
Figure-1b: CUF of Wind
across the states
8
Installed capacities and generation data retrieved from CEA-CEEW-Centre for Energy Finance dashboard https:// www.renew-
ablesindia.in/ (Accessed as on 15 June 2023)
9
State-wise resource potential data of Solar, Bioenergy and Small Hydro accessed from https://data.gov.in/resource/state-wise-po-
tential-various-renewable-energy-technologies-2022
10
CUF data accessed from https://niwe.res.in/assets/Docu/India%27s_Wind_Potential_Atlas_at_120m_agl.pdf
11
State-wise resource potential and CUF data of Wind accessed from https://maps.niwe.res.in/media/150m-report.pdf 7
published by Central Electricity Authority (CEA) is considered for the state-wise electricity demand
in 2030
12
. For the estimation of wind CUFs in 2030, National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE) data
is considered at varying CUF ranges (from small to high CUFs). State-wise weighted average CUF is
calculated for capacities of higher CUF areas which have higher probability of installation. This weighted
CUF is later increased due to expected efficiency improvements and installations at higher hub heights.
CUF for solar energy in 2030 has been assumed based on current utilization pattern (as shown in
Figure 1a) and adjusted to be 10% higher due to adoption of high efficiency solar PV cells.
2.2 Methodology for Renewable Capacity Estimation
The state-wise electricity demand that needs to be met from RE is estimated by application of RPO
guidelines to the total electricity demand provided in 20
th
EPS. As specified in the RPO notification,
demand is calculated separately for Wind, Hydro and Others (including solar, bioenergy). The resource
specific RPO (Hydro, Wind and Other) demand is first met from existing allocated capacities. Second,
the study estimates the balance demand that needs to be mobilized from the potential (resource-
specific) available within the state. In-case of shortfall in a particular resource, the study then refers
to availability of fungible resources as specified in RPO notification. As per RPO guidelines, Wind is
fungible with Hydro and vice-versa, others are fungible with Hydro/Wind. For example, insufficiency to
meet wind RPO can be met from its hydro potential.. Third, for Bioenergy, the study does not consider
the full potential provided by MNRE as the growth of bioenergy has been slow due to competing
demands for its use and limited availability.
In-case of deficiency of potential within the state including fungibility, the study then estimates the
capacity that needs to be procured from other states with surplus RE potential. The study also highlights
the states where substantial resource potential exists which can be mobilized to meet targets of deficit
states. The required capacity is estimated with assumed CUFs in 2030.
2.3 Methodology for Storage Assessment
The storage requirement is estimated using regional optimization models using TIMES (The
Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) modeling framework. Indian electricity grid is demarcated
into five regional grids namely, Northern Region (NR), Western Region (WR), Eastern Region (ER),
Southern Region (SR) and North-Eastern Region (NER). These regional grids are interconnected
with each other to form a synchronized national grid operating at 50 Hz frequency. The study
estimates the storage requirement at regional grid level as regional electricity dispatch is controlled
and operated by separate though synchronized load dispatch centres.
The assessment of storage capacity requires capturing demand and supply side variability and
operational aspects of power sector. Therefore, the model adopts high temporal granularity of
hourly level to facilitate the incorporation of hourly load profiles and capacity utilization factors of
solar and wind. The model has 288 sub-annual timeslices formed by considering all 24 hours of one
representative day of each month (288=24*12). The hourly temporal resolution facilitates charging
and discharging of energy storage during excess and deficit generation periods respectively.
12
20
th
Electric Power Survey Report accessed from https://cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/ps___lf/2022/11/20th_EPS____Re-
port___Final___16.11.2022.pdf 8
3. Results and Analysis
As per the methodology described above, the study estimates the capacity requirements to meet
the RPO target of 30 states/UTs in the country, twenty one states will be able to meet the RPO
target by mobilizing the potential within the state and nine states need to procure RE power from
other surplus states, as shown in Table 1.
3.1 Region-wise analysis of states’ ability to meet RPO targets
In the Northern Region consisting of eight states, states of Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal
Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir will be able to meet both total and individual RPO targets of
Wind, Hydro and Others by mobilizing the potential within the state. States of Punjab, Haryana,
Table 1: State-wise capacities for meeting RPO target
S t a t e
Allocated/ Installed capacity
as of Mar-22 (GW)
Cumulative capacity required
to meet RPO (GW)
Purchase from other
states to meet unmet
RPO (GW)
Surplus capacity (GW)
WindHydroSolarBiomassWindHydroSolarBiomassWindHydroOthersWindHydroSolarBiomass
Northern Region
PB 0.00 4.10 1.110.49 0.434.35 2.81 1.23 1.980.51 3.46 0.000.00 0.00 2.21
HR 0.002.400.93 0.26 0.592.504.56 0.62 1.980.79 13.360.000.00 0.00 1.09
RJ 4.50 1.9714.06 0.13 9.722.0420.04 0.13 0.000.00 0.00 274. 530.00122.271.17
DL 0.00 0.720.21 0.06 0.000.722.05 0.06 1.170.42 7. 2 50.000.00 0.00 0.00
UP 0.00 3.472.24 2.19 0.514.3222.83 3.57 5.09 1.1713.090.000.00 0.00 4.15
UK 0.00 2.190.57 0.14 0.052.760.57 0.14 0.000.00 0.00 0.0016.9016.23 0.17
HP 0.004.200.08 0.01 0.244.510.08 0.01 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 17.7733.760.06
JK 0.00 2.470.05 0.00 0.002.970.05 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.0012.89111.000.08
Western Region
CG 0.00 0.310.53 0.28 1.660.7710.52 0.28 0.000.00 0.00 1.082.57 7.75 0.07
GJ 9.350.86 7.78 0.1118.610.8635.77 0.88 0.000.00 0.00 162.180.00 0.00 2.31
MP 2.523.322.75 0.13 7. 233.9520.44 0.13 0.000.00 0.00 48.190.0041.222.39
MH 5.013.712.67 2.63 11.854.8348.49 2.63 0.000.00 0.00 162.020.0015.833.92
GA 0.000.000.02 0.00 0.010.570.88 0.01 0.000.00 0.81 0.00 0.280.00 0.02
Southern Region
AP 4.101.844.39 0.57 6.763.3115.85 0.57 0.000.00 0.00 116.570.0022.59 1.71
TS 0.132.574.55 0.22 3.782.5718.160.22 0.000.00 0.00 50.930.00 2.25 1.58
KA 5.20 4.917. 601.90 6.335.637. 601.90 0.000.00 0.00 162.934.70 17.1 01.66
KL 0.06 2.100.40 0.00 0.84 2.311.92 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 1.781.85 4.19 0.78
TN 9.872.305.57 1.04 16.862.5317. 671.33 0.000.00 0.00 78.250.00 0.00 0.87
Eastern Region
BR 0.00 0.180.19 0.13 4.020.3111.20 0.42 0.000.00 5.41 0.00 0.290.00 0.89
JH 0.000.380.09 0.00 0.02 1.1518.180.04 0.340.00 1.370.000.00 0.00 0.11
OR 0.00 2.270.45 0.06 1.602.776.72 0.06 0.000.00 0.00 10.530.5119.060.24
WB 0.00 1.490.18 0.32 1.283.256.26 0.68 0.590.00 10.950.000.00 0.00 1.07
SK 0.000.690.00 0.00 0.000.700.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 3.854.94 0.00
North-eastern Region
AR 0.000.68
0.01 0.00 0.030.68 0.01 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.2251.718.64 0.02
AS 0.000.560.14 0.00 0.460.90 3.16 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.000.0010.60 0.32
MN 0.00 0.100.01 0.00 0.00 0.130.08 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 1.7510.550.06
ML 0.000.400.00 0.01 0.06 0.130.00 0.01 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 5.86 0.06
MZ 0.00 0.130.01 0.00 0.00 0.190.29 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 2.178.80 0.00
NL 0.00 0.100.00 0.00 0.00 0.140.40 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 1.626.89 0.05
TR 0.000.080.02 0.00 0.00 0.121.08 0.00 0.060.01 0.00 0.000.00 1.00 0.03 9
Delhi and Uttar Pradesh will fall short of the target even after mobilizing the full potential within
the state. These states need to engage in procurement of Hydro, Wind and Solar from other states
to meet the individual and total RPO targets.
In the Western Region, four states namely Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra
will be able to meet both total and individual RPO targets of Wind, Hydro and Others by mobilizing
the potential within the state. Goa however will fall short of Others RPO target. Goa may engage
in procuring additional solar power from other states to meet the target.
All five states in the Southern Region namely Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala and
Tamil Nadu will be able to meet total RPO & individual RPO targets of Wind, Hydro and Others
by mobilizing the potential within the state. In the Eastern Region, only Odisha and Sikkim states
will be able to meet all RPO targets of Wind, Hydro and Others by mobilizing the potential within
the state. Other Eastern states namely Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal fall short of Others RPO
target for which they can engage in procurement of solar from other states. Jharkhand and West
Bengal also need to procure Wind power from other states.
Lastly, in the North-Eastern Region, out of the seven states, Tripura will fall short of target in Wind
and Hydro RPO for which they can engage in procurement from other states. Other states of the
region namely Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Nagaland will be
able to meet both total and individual RPO targets of Wind, Hydro and Others by mobilizing the
potential within the state. See Figure 2 for details.
3.2 Capacity requirements at national level
As on July 2023, the total RE installed capacity in the country stands at 177.74 GW. Based on the
analysis done by the study, 269.79 is expected to be additional installed capacity that can be
mobilized within state potential and 69.81 GW needs to be procured from other states. The total
capacity required at 2029-30 for meeting RPO target is 517.34 GW of which 177.74 GW is already
installed while 339.6 GW needs to be installed.
In terms of individual RE sources, of the total 517.34 GW installed capacity, 104.16 GW of Wind,
64.88 GW of Hydro, 333.38 GW of Solar and 14.92 GW of Bio-energy is required by 2029-30 to
meet the RPO target. As on July 2023, the total installed capacity is 177.74 GW of which solar is
71.14 GW, Wind is 43.94 GW, Hydro is 51.83 GW and Bioenergy is 10.81 GW. In terms of balance
requirement from July 2023, Solar of 262.24 GW, Wind of 60.22 GW, Hydro of 13.05 GW and
Bioenergy of 4.1 GW need to be installed in the next 7 years. Total of ~340 GW needs to be
installed in the next 7 years.
According to bidding calendar notified by MNRE, the government intends to mobilize 50 GW of
RE with at least 10 GW of Wind till 2027-28. Based on the study estimates 48.5 GW of RE needs
to be installed per year till 2029-30 for meeting the RPO target. The bidding calendar issued is in
line with our estimates. 10
Figure 2: State-wise RE capacity to meet the RPO targets 11
3.3 Estimation of storage requirement
The study estimates storage at regional level using optimization tool of TIMES-VEDA. The study
considers around 18.6 GW of Pumped Hydro that will be available by 2029-30 for balancing the
variable RE input to the grid. The study considers 5-hour Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)
as an additional mechanism through which balancing of RE can be undertaken. The total BESS
capacity of 5-hour duration is estimated at 41.13 GW, and the Pumped storage is 18.6 GW. See
Table 2 for more details.
3.4 Funding requirements
As per the unit cost data available in CEA technology catalogue
13
, the study estimates that INR
18.55 lakh crore is required for the installation of RE with storage (see Table 3 for detailed funding
split-up). We have also estimated the investment requirements as INR 24.9 lakh crore, considering
the 2020 cost of technologies. This investment requirement assumes that there is no impact
of technological improvements and economies of scale on cost. The above financial need for
additional capacity requirement is estimated based on existing installation as on July 2023. The
total investment requirement thus varies within INR 18.55-24.9 lakh crore.
Table 2: Storage requirement at regional level
RegionBESS Capacity requirement (In GW)
Northern Region17.043
Southern Region2.74
Eastern Region9.40
Western Region11.742
North-eastern Region0.208
Table 3: Funding estimates
RegionFunding requirement (in lakh crore)
Solar10.23
Wind (Onshore)3.06
Wind (offshore)1.55
Hydro1.08
Bioenergy0.21
Pumped Hydro0.83
Battery Storage1.59
Total18.55
13
CEA technology catalogue accessed from https://cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/irp/2022/02/First_Indian_Technology_Cata-
logue_Generation_and_Storage_of_Electricity-2.pdf 12
4. Conclusion
The study may be helpful for the policy-makers at the Central and State levels on RE capacity
planning that can harness the state RE potential to reduce transmission requirements and
associated costs, and also capacity that needs to be procured from other states for meeting
RPOs. According to the study, 269.79 GW is expected to be mobilized within state potential and
69.81 GW required to be procured from other states for meeting the RPO target in 2029-30. Of
30 states/UTs in the country, twenty-one states will be able to meet the RPO target by mobilizing
the potential within the state, and nine states need to procure RE power from other surplus states.
The study’s result also reveals that over 48.5 GW of capacity needs to be installed each year in-
line with MNRE bidding calendar estimate of 50 GW. In-terms of adherence to individual targets of
RPO, seven states need to procure wind from other states, five states need to procure hydro from
other states and eight states need to procure solar from other states.
The study also estimates storage requirement at 59.73 GW with 41.13 GW of 5-hour battery storage
system and 18.6 GW of Pumped Hydro. In terms of funding requirements, the study estimates that
an investment in the range of INR 18.55-24.9 lakh crore is required to meet the RPO target in
2029-30.
Annexure I:
Large Hydro Small Hydro Solar Wind Bioenergy
Northern Region
Punjab (PB)0.97 0.58 2.81 0.428 3.44
Haryana (HR)0.06 0.11 4.56 0.593 1.72
Rajasthan (RJ)0.48 0.05 142.31 284.25 1.30
Delhi (DL)0.00 0.00 2.05 0.00 0.06
Uttar Pradesh (UP) 0.72 0.46 22.83 0.51 7.73
Uttarakhand (UK)18.00 1.66 16.80 0.049 0.31
Himachal Pradesh (HP) 18.82 3.46 33.84 0.239 0.07
Jammu and Kashmir (JK) 14.15 1.71 111.05 0.0010 0.08
Western Region
Chhattisgarh (CG) 2.24 1.10 18.27 2.749 0.35
Gujarat (GJ)0.62 0.20 35.77 180.79 3.19
Madhya Pradesh (MP) 2.24 0.82 61.66 55.423 2.52
Maharashtra (MH)3.77 0.79 64.32 173.87 6.55 13
Large Hydro Small Hydro Solar Wind Bioenergy
Southern Region
Andhra Pradesh (AP) 2.37 0.41 38.44 123.37 2.28
Telangana (TS)2.06 0.10 20.41 54.717 1.80
Karnataka (KA)6.60 3.73 24.70 169.251 3.56
Kerala (KL)3.51 0.65 6.11 2.6210 0.78
Tamil Nadu (TN)1.92 0.60 17.67 95.107 2.20
Eastern Region
Bihar (BR)0.07 0.53 11.20 4.023 1.31
Jharkhand (JH)0.75 0.23 18.18 0.016 0.15
Odisha (OR)3.00 0.29 25.78 12.129 0.30
West Bengal (WB)2.84 0.39 6.26 1.281 1.74
Sikkim (SK)4.29 0.27 4.94 0.00 0.00
North-Eastern Region
Arunachal Pradesh (AR) 50.33 2.06 8.65 0.246 0.02
Assam (AS)0.68 0.20 13.76 0.459 0.32
Manipur (MN)1.78 0.10 10.63 0.00 0.06
Meghalaya (ML)2.39 0.23 5.86 0.055 0.07
Mizoram (MZ)2.20 0.17 9.09 0.00 0.00
Nagaland (NL)1.57 0.18 7. 29 0.00 0.05
Tripura (TR)0.02 0.05 2.08 0.00 0.03 NOTES Designed by: www.niti.gov.in
Resource Adequacy
Planning to meet RPO
by the States in India
VENUGOPAL MOTHKOOR | DR ANJALI JAIN | RAJNATH RAM
(FEBRUARY 2024) 2
Disclaimer
Views expressed in this paper are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views
of NITI Aayog.
Suggested Citation
Mothkoor V, Jain A, Ram R. Renewable energy resource adequacy planning to meet
RPO by the states in India. NITI Aayog, Government of India. 2024 February. 3
BACKGROUND
India has unleashed its climate ambitions with the announcement of updated Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs) and submission of the Long-Term Low Carbon Development Strategy laying
down the path for resilient, inclusive, and sustainable growth. In line with these announcements,
the Ministry of Power (MoP), vide F. No. 09/13/2021-RCM dated 19.09.22, has notified a year-
wise trajectory of Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPOs) including Energy Storage Obligations
till 2030. According to this, the obligated entities, mainly DISCOMs, in each state, are required
to meet their minimum share (24.3% in 2023 to 43.3% in 2030) of electricity purchase from
Renewable Energy (RE) sources. These obligations will ensure the consumption of renewable
in the country and subsequently will help to achieve the climate action goals of the government
wherein it aims to increase the share of non-fossil fuel-based power capacity to 50% by 2030.
However, RE sources have inherent spatial and temporal variability that leads to uneven potential
and energy yield in each state. States may exhibit surplus or deficit RE potential to meet annual
renewable obligations. Further, the requirement of energy storage may also change considering
the temporal variability of RE, available flexible resources for power generation within the states
and inter-state electricity trade.
In this context, the study, carried out with the support of CEA and MNRE, presents a detailed
analysis of i) RE technical potential that can be harnessed to meet RPOs of each state ii) RE
capacity that needs to be procured by the deficit states from other RE-rich states iii) Storage
requirement to meet required grid balancing, by looking into various parameters such as RE
capacity utilization factors, available potential, past generation and expected technological
improvements. The utmost care has been taken for RE procurement decisions by deficit states from
neighbouring states to reduce transmission infrastructure and related costs. This study provides a
state-wise capacity addition plan for India which can be leveraged both by state governments and
RE developers. The government can use the estimates for developing a bidding calendar while
industry can use it for undertaking necessary investments in the respective states. 4
1. Introduction
India is now the most populous country with 18% of the world’s population and fifth largest
economy in the world at 3.3 billion USD (2022) and third largest in terms of Purchasing Power
Parity (PPP). However, in per-capita terms, India’s per capita GDP is USD 2,379, a fraction
compared to China’s GDP of USD 12,814, and the US GDP of USD 76,348
1
. Also, India’s per-capita
primary energy consumption is 1/3
rd
of global average and 1/10
th
of the USA
2
. The Prime Minister
of India during his Independence Day speech on 15 August 2022, made a clarion call for India
to become a developed nation by 2047. This necessitates a multifold increase in infrastructure
requirements and improvement in the living standards. Energy requirements will grow manifold
as India embarks on path to a developed nation by 2047.
Historically, economic development has been synonymous with fossil fuel consumption and
dependency. India, when confronted with the same challenge, has chosen a sustainable path to
achieve the country’s developmental goals. India has contributed only about 4% of the global
cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between 1850 and 2019
3
and India’s per-capita emissions
stand at half of the global average, 1/4
th
of China and 1/8
th
of the USA
4
. India is amongst the top 5
best-performing countries in Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI 2023) and is best among
G-20 countries. India has the world’s fourth highest renewable installed capacity after China, the
USA, and Germany.
India has unleashed its climate ambitions with the announcement of updated National Determined
Contributions (NDCs) and submission of the “Long-Term Low Carbon Development Strategy”. The
achievement of 50% cumulative power installed capacity from non-fossil sources is one of the
quantitative commitments under updated NDCs.
Since 2010-11, the Ministry of Power, Government of India, has been relying upon the use
of Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) as an instrument to meet the Intended National
Determined Contributions (INDCs) and promote renewable energy deployment in the country
5
.
In the erstwhile RPO, the obligations are categorized under Solar and Non-Solar obligations. Due
to technology maturity and strong commercial market, solar capacity addition increased rapidly
while other technologies such as Wind and Hydro did not increase at same scale. Ministry of
Power has amended the erstwhile trajectory with an objective to promote development of Wind
and Hydro with targets for each till 2030. Solar has been clubbed with other RE sources such as
Biomass
6
. This will facilitate deployment of technologies with high Capacity Utilization Factors
(CUFs) and also technologies which play a critical role in providing grid flexibility. According to
the new trajectory announced, each state is obligated to meet a minimum of 43.3% of the power
demand from renewable sources by 2030.
1
International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook, April 2023.
2
BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2021
3
India’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy (LT LEDS): Subm ission to the United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Government of India.
4
BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2021.
5
List of RPO regulations accessed from https://www.recregistryindia.nic.in/index.php/publics/Reference_Documents (as on 15-
June-2023)
6
RPO notification, Ministry of Power, Government of India. Accessed from https://powermin.gov.in/sites/default/files/Renewable_
Purchase_Obligation_and_Energy_Storage_Obligation_Trajectory_till_2029 _30.pdf 5
The effectiveness of RPO depends on many factors such as the perception of the state on
competitiveness of renewable energy compared with other fossil sources, availability of grid
i n f r a s t r u c t u r e t o i n t e g r a t e R E a n d e x i s t e n c e o f s t r o n g c o m p l i a n c e m e c h a n i s m . 1 7
th
Standing Committee
on Energy has analyzed the RPO performance across states and found that RPO compliance in 2019-
20 varies from 3.7% in Manipur to 250% in Karnataka. The report found that only six states have
achieved full compliance with notified RPO trajectory
7
. Therefore, the role of states becomes critical
in achieving RPO. The Draft Electricity Amendment Bill 2022 has proposed the penalty punishment
for non-compliance.
The capacity planning has been an after-thought in most states as a result of which RPO compliance
has been unsatisfactory. The capacity planning is more critical primarily on account of varying CUF
and available RE potential across the states. Figure 1 shows varying solar and wind CUFs in states
with RE capacities. As can be observed from the figure, the solar CUF varies from 1.3%-27%, while for
wind, it varies from 13.4%-32%.
RJ-23%
JK-5%
MP-19%
MH-14%
UP-17%
GJ-13%
KA-21%
AP-20%
OR-18%
CG-17%
TN-16%
TS-18%
BR-11%
JH-4%
WB-8%
AR-22%
HP-10%
PB-27%
UK-10%
AS-17%
HR-7%
KL-16%
ML-1%
MZ-8%
MN-14%
NL-4%
TR-7%
SK-3%
GA-6%
DL-12%
Figure-1a: CUF of Solar
across the states
7
1 7
th
Parliamentary Standing Committee Report. Accessed from https://eparlib.nic.in/bitstream/123456789/800881/1/17_Energy_17.
pdf#search=null%20Departmentally%20Related%20Standing%20Committees%20Committee%20on%20Energy 6
1.1 Objective
The aim of this study is to fill this critical gap by providing state-wise capacity that can be mobilized
within the state to meet the RPO target and capacity that needs to be procured from other states.
The mobilization of potential within the state also results in the creation of co-benefits in the form of
local employment and economy boost apart from ability to generate renewable energy. This study
also estimates the amount of storage requirement in each region to facilitate the smooth integration
of RE into grid and preserve the resilience of grid.
2. Methodology
This section provides an overview of the data and methodology adopted to estimate the capacity
that needs to be installed from within the state’s potential and/or procured from other states to meet
the RPO target. The care has been taken to source RE from neighbouring states to reduce cost of
transportation. The methodology for estimation of storage is also described in the section below.
2.1 Data
The data on state-wise installed & allocated capacities, generation, and estimated resource potential
of RE till FY 2021-22 has been obtained from the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE),
Government of India
8,9,10,11
(See Annexure-1 for state-wise resource potential). The 20
th
EPS report
Figure-1b: CUF of Wind
across the states
8
Installed capacities and generation data retrieved from CEA-CEEW-Centre for Energy Finance dashboard https:// www.renew-
ablesindia.in/ (Accessed as on 15 June 2023)
9
State-wise resource potential data of Solar, Bioenergy and Small Hydro accessed from https://data.gov.in/resource/state-wise-po-
tential-various-renewable-energy-technologies-2022
10
CUF data accessed from https://niwe.res.in/assets/Docu/India%27s_Wind_Potential_Atlas_at_120m_agl.pdf
11
State-wise resource potential and CUF data of Wind accessed from https://maps.niwe.res.in/media/150m-report.pdf 7
published by Central Electricity Authority (CEA) is considered for the state-wise electricity demand
in 2030
12
. For the estimation of wind CUFs in 2030, National Institute of Wind Energy (NIWE) data
is considered at varying CUF ranges (from small to high CUFs). State-wise weighted average CUF is
calculated for capacities of higher CUF areas which have higher probability of installation. This weighted
CUF is later increased due to expected efficiency improvements and installations at higher hub heights.
CUF for solar energy in 2030 has been assumed based on current utilization pattern (as shown in
Figure 1a) and adjusted to be 10% higher due to adoption of high efficiency solar PV cells.
2.2 Methodology for Renewable Capacity Estimation
The state-wise electricity demand that needs to be met from RE is estimated by application of RPO
guidelines to the total electricity demand provided in 20
th
EPS. As specified in the RPO notification,
demand is calculated separately for Wind, Hydro and Others (including solar, bioenergy). The resource
specific RPO (Hydro, Wind and Other) demand is first met from existing allocated capacities. Second,
the study estimates the balance demand that needs to be mobilized from the potential (resource-
specific) available within the state. In-case of shortfall in a particular resource, the study then refers
to availability of fungible resources as specified in RPO notification. As per RPO guidelines, Wind is
fungible with Hydro and vice-versa, others are fungible with Hydro/Wind. For example, insufficiency to
meet wind RPO can be met from its hydro potential.. Third, for Bioenergy, the study does not consider
the full potential provided by MNRE as the growth of bioenergy has been slow due to competing
demands for its use and limited availability.
In-case of deficiency of potential within the state including fungibility, the study then estimates the
capacity that needs to be procured from other states with surplus RE potential. The study also highlights
the states where substantial resource potential exists which can be mobilized to meet targets of deficit
states. The required capacity is estimated with assumed CUFs in 2030.
2.3 Methodology for Storage Assessment
The storage requirement is estimated using regional optimization models using TIMES (The
Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) modeling framework. Indian electricity grid is demarcated
into five regional grids namely, Northern Region (NR), Western Region (WR), Eastern Region (ER),
Southern Region (SR) and North-Eastern Region (NER). These regional grids are interconnected
with each other to form a synchronized national grid operating at 50 Hz frequency. The study
estimates the storage requirement at regional grid level as regional electricity dispatch is controlled
and operated by separate though synchronized load dispatch centres.
The assessment of storage capacity requires capturing demand and supply side variability and
operational aspects of power sector. Therefore, the model adopts high temporal granularity of
hourly level to facilitate the incorporation of hourly load profiles and capacity utilization factors of
solar and wind. The model has 288 sub-annual timeslices formed by considering all 24 hours of one
representative day of each month (288=24*12). The hourly temporal resolution facilitates charging
and discharging of energy storage during excess and deficit generation periods respectively.
12
20
th
Electric Power Survey Report accessed from https://cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/ps___lf/2022/11/20th_EPS____Re-
port___Final___16.11.2022.pdf 8
3. Results and Analysis
As per the methodology described above, the study estimates the capacity requirements to meet
the RPO target of 30 states/UTs in the country, twenty one states will be able to meet the RPO
target by mobilizing the potential within the state and nine states need to procure RE power from
other surplus states, as shown in Table 1.
3.1 Region-wise analysis of states’ ability to meet RPO targets
In the Northern Region consisting of eight states, states of Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Himachal
Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir will be able to meet both total and individual RPO targets of
Wind, Hydro and Others by mobilizing the potential within the state. States of Punjab, Haryana,
Table 1: State-wise capacities for meeting RPO target
S t a t e
Allocated/ Installed capacity
as of Mar-22 (GW)
Cumulative capacity required
to meet RPO (GW)
Purchase from other
states to meet unmet
RPO (GW)
Surplus capacity (GW)
WindHydroSolarBiomassWindHydroSolarBiomassWindHydroOthersWindHydroSolarBiomass
Northern Region
PB 0.00 4.10 1.110.49 0.434.35 2.81 1.23 1.980.51 3.46 0.000.00 0.00 2.21
HR 0.002.400.93 0.26 0.592.504.56 0.62 1.980.79 13.360.000.00 0.00 1.09
RJ 4.50 1.9714.06 0.13 9.722.0420.04 0.13 0.000.00 0.00 274. 530.00122.271.17
DL 0.00 0.720.21 0.06 0.000.722.05 0.06 1.170.42 7. 2 50.000.00 0.00 0.00
UP 0.00 3.472.24 2.19 0.514.3222.83 3.57 5.09 1.1713.090.000.00 0.00 4.15
UK 0.00 2.190.57 0.14 0.052.760.57 0.14 0.000.00 0.00 0.0016.9016.23 0.17
HP 0.004.200.08 0.01 0.244.510.08 0.01 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 17.7733.760.06
JK 0.00 2.470.05 0.00 0.002.970.05 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.0012.89111.000.08
Western Region
CG 0.00 0.310.53 0.28 1.660.7710.52 0.28 0.000.00 0.00 1.082.57 7.75 0.07
GJ 9.350.86 7.78 0.1118.610.8635.77 0.88 0.000.00 0.00 162.180.00 0.00 2.31
MP 2.523.322.75 0.13 7. 233.9520.44 0.13 0.000.00 0.00 48.190.0041.222.39
MH 5.013.712.67 2.63 11.854.8348.49 2.63 0.000.00 0.00 162.020.0015.833.92
GA 0.000.000.02 0.00 0.010.570.88 0.01 0.000.00 0.81 0.00 0.280.00 0.02
Southern Region
AP 4.101.844.39 0.57 6.763.3115.85 0.57 0.000.00 0.00 116.570.0022.59 1.71
TS 0.132.574.55 0.22 3.782.5718.160.22 0.000.00 0.00 50.930.00 2.25 1.58
KA 5.20 4.917. 601.90 6.335.637. 601.90 0.000.00 0.00 162.934.70 17.1 01.66
KL 0.06 2.100.40 0.00 0.84 2.311.92 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 1.781.85 4.19 0.78
TN 9.872.305.57 1.04 16.862.5317. 671.33 0.000.00 0.00 78.250.00 0.00 0.87
Eastern Region
BR 0.00 0.180.19 0.13 4.020.3111.20 0.42 0.000.00 5.41 0.00 0.290.00 0.89
JH 0.000.380.09 0.00 0.02 1.1518.180.04 0.340.00 1.370.000.00 0.00 0.11
OR 0.00 2.270.45 0.06 1.602.776.72 0.06 0.000.00 0.00 10.530.5119.060.24
WB 0.00 1.490.18 0.32 1.283.256.26 0.68 0.590.00 10.950.000.00 0.00 1.07
SK 0.000.690.00 0.00 0.000.700.00 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 3.854.94 0.00
North-eastern Region
AR 0.000.68
0.01 0.00 0.030.68 0.01 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.2251.718.64 0.02
AS 0.000.560.14 0.00 0.460.90 3.16 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.000.0010.60 0.32
MN 0.00 0.100.01 0.00 0.00 0.130.08 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 1.7510.550.06
ML 0.000.400.00 0.01 0.06 0.130.00 0.01 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 2.50 5.86 0.06
MZ 0.00 0.130.01 0.00 0.00 0.190.29 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 2.178.80 0.00
NL 0.00 0.100.00 0.00 0.00 0.140.40 0.00 0.000.00 0.00 0.00 1.626.89 0.05
TR 0.000.080.02 0.00 0.00 0.121.08 0.00 0.060.01 0.00 0.000.00 1.00 0.03 9
Delhi and Uttar Pradesh will fall short of the target even after mobilizing the full potential within
the state. These states need to engage in procurement of Hydro, Wind and Solar from other states
to meet the individual and total RPO targets.
In the Western Region, four states namely Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra
will be able to meet both total and individual RPO targets of Wind, Hydro and Others by mobilizing
the potential within the state. Goa however will fall short of Others RPO target. Goa may engage
in procuring additional solar power from other states to meet the target.
All five states in the Southern Region namely Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala and
Tamil Nadu will be able to meet total RPO & individual RPO targets of Wind, Hydro and Others
by mobilizing the potential within the state. In the Eastern Region, only Odisha and Sikkim states
will be able to meet all RPO targets of Wind, Hydro and Others by mobilizing the potential within
the state. Other Eastern states namely Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal fall short of Others RPO
target for which they can engage in procurement of solar from other states. Jharkhand and West
Bengal also need to procure Wind power from other states.
Lastly, in the North-Eastern Region, out of the seven states, Tripura will fall short of target in Wind
and Hydro RPO for which they can engage in procurement from other states. Other states of the
region namely Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Nagaland will be
able to meet both total and individual RPO targets of Wind, Hydro and Others by mobilizing the
potential within the state. See Figure 2 for details.
3.2 Capacity requirements at national level
As on July 2023, the total RE installed capacity in the country stands at 177.74 GW. Based on the
analysis done by the study, 269.79 is expected to be additional installed capacity that can be
mobilized within state potential and 69.81 GW needs to be procured from other states. The total
capacity required at 2029-30 for meeting RPO target is 517.34 GW of which 177.74 GW is already
installed while 339.6 GW needs to be installed.
In terms of individual RE sources, of the total 517.34 GW installed capacity, 104.16 GW of Wind,
64.88 GW of Hydro, 333.38 GW of Solar and 14.92 GW of Bio-energy is required by 2029-30 to
meet the RPO target. As on July 2023, the total installed capacity is 177.74 GW of which solar is
71.14 GW, Wind is 43.94 GW, Hydro is 51.83 GW and Bioenergy is 10.81 GW. In terms of balance
requirement from July 2023, Solar of 262.24 GW, Wind of 60.22 GW, Hydro of 13.05 GW and
Bioenergy of 4.1 GW need to be installed in the next 7 years. Total of ~340 GW needs to be
installed in the next 7 years.
According to bidding calendar notified by MNRE, the government intends to mobilize 50 GW of
RE with at least 10 GW of Wind till 2027-28. Based on the study estimates 48.5 GW of RE needs
to be installed per year till 2029-30 for meeting the RPO target. The bidding calendar issued is in
line with our estimates. 10
Figure 2: State-wise RE capacity to meet the RPO targets 11
3.3 Estimation of storage requirement
The study estimates storage at regional level using optimization tool of TIMES-VEDA. The study
considers around 18.6 GW of Pumped Hydro that will be available by 2029-30 for balancing the
variable RE input to the grid. The study considers 5-hour Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)
as an additional mechanism through which balancing of RE can be undertaken. The total BESS
capacity of 5-hour duration is estimated at 41.13 GW, and the Pumped storage is 18.6 GW. See
Table 2 for more details.
3.4 Funding requirements
As per the unit cost data available in CEA technology catalogue
13
, the study estimates that INR
18.55 lakh crore is required for the installation of RE with storage (see Table 3 for detailed funding
split-up). We have also estimated the investment requirements as INR 24.9 lakh crore, considering
the 2020 cost of technologies. This investment requirement assumes that there is no impact
of technological improvements and economies of scale on cost. The above financial need for
additional capacity requirement is estimated based on existing installation as on July 2023. The
total investment requirement thus varies within INR 18.55-24.9 lakh crore.
Table 2: Storage requirement at regional level
RegionBESS Capacity requirement (In GW)
Northern Region17.043
Southern Region2.74
Eastern Region9.40
Western Region11.742
North-eastern Region0.208
Table 3: Funding estimates
RegionFunding requirement (in lakh crore)
Solar10.23
Wind (Onshore)3.06
Wind (offshore)1.55
Hydro1.08
Bioenergy0.21
Pumped Hydro0.83
Battery Storage1.59
Total18.55
13
CEA technology catalogue accessed from https://cea.nic.in/wp-content/uploads/irp/2022/02/First_Indian_Technology_Cata-
logue_Generation_and_Storage_of_Electricity-2.pdf 12
4. Conclusion
The study may be helpful for the policy-makers at the Central and State levels on RE capacity
planning that can harness the state RE potential to reduce transmission requirements and
associated costs, and also capacity that needs to be procured from other states for meeting
RPOs. According to the study, 269.79 GW is expected to be mobilized within state potential and
69.81 GW required to be procured from other states for meeting the RPO target in 2029-30. Of
30 states/UTs in the country, twenty-one states will be able to meet the RPO target by mobilizing
the potential within the state, and nine states need to procure RE power from other surplus states.
The study’s result also reveals that over 48.5 GW of capacity needs to be installed each year in-
line with MNRE bidding calendar estimate of 50 GW. In-terms of adherence to individual targets of
RPO, seven states need to procure wind from other states, five states need to procure hydro from
other states and eight states need to procure solar from other states.
The study also estimates storage requirement at 59.73 GW with 41.13 GW of 5-hour battery storage
system and 18.6 GW of Pumped Hydro. In terms of funding requirements, the study estimates that
an investment in the range of INR 18.55-24.9 lakh crore is required to meet the RPO target in
2029-30.
Annexure I:
Large Hydro Small Hydro Solar Wind Bioenergy
Northern Region
Punjab (PB)0.97 0.58 2.81 0.428 3.44
Haryana (HR)0.06 0.11 4.56 0.593 1.72
Rajasthan (RJ)0.48 0.05 142.31 284.25 1.30
Delhi (DL)0.00 0.00 2.05 0.00 0.06
Uttar Pradesh (UP) 0.72 0.46 22.83 0.51 7.73
Uttarakhand (UK)18.00 1.66 16.80 0.049 0.31
Himachal Pradesh (HP) 18.82 3.46 33.84 0.239 0.07
Jammu and Kashmir (JK) 14.15 1.71 111.05 0.0010 0.08
Western Region
Chhattisgarh (CG) 2.24 1.10 18.27 2.749 0.35
Gujarat (GJ)0.62 0.20 35.77 180.79 3.19
Madhya Pradesh (MP) 2.24 0.82 61.66 55.423 2.52
Maharashtra (MH)3.77 0.79 64.32 173.87 6.55 13
Large Hydro Small Hydro Solar Wind Bioenergy
Southern Region
Andhra Pradesh (AP) 2.37 0.41 38.44 123.37 2.28
Telangana (TS)2.06 0.10 20.41 54.717 1.80
Karnataka (KA)6.60 3.73 24.70 169.251 3.56
Kerala (KL)3.51 0.65 6.11 2.6210 0.78
Tamil Nadu (TN)1.92 0.60 17.67 95.107 2.20
Eastern Region
Bihar (BR)0.07 0.53 11.20 4.023 1.31
Jharkhand (JH)0.75 0.23 18.18 0.016 0.15
Odisha (OR)3.00 0.29 25.78 12.129 0.30
West Bengal (WB)2.84 0.39 6.26 1.281 1.74
Sikkim (SK)4.29 0.27 4.94 0.00 0.00
North-Eastern Region
Arunachal Pradesh (AR) 50.33 2.06 8.65 0.246 0.02
Assam (AS)0.68 0.20 13.76 0.459 0.32
Manipur (MN)1.78 0.10 10.63 0.00 0.06
Meghalaya (ML)2.39 0.23 5.86 0.055 0.07
Mizoram (MZ)2.20 0.17 9.09 0.00 0.00
Nagaland (NL)1.57 0.18 7. 29 0.00 0.05
Tripura (TR)0.02 0.05 2.08 0.00 0.03 NOTES Designed by: www.niti.gov.in