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1Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
QUARTERLY
TRADE WATCH
THEMATIC ANALYSIS:
METALS & ORES TRADE
April-June (Q1) FY27

TRADE WATCH QUARTERLY, Quarterly Report for the FY’2026-27
Copyright@ NITI Aayog, 2026
Published: September, 2026
NITI Aayog
Government of India
Sansad Marg, New Delhi-110001, India

April-June (Q1) FY27
TRADE WATCH
QUARTERLY

iTrade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
ADVISORY BOARD
S. No. Board Member Affiliation
1 Harsha Vardhana Singh Former Deputy Director, WTO
2 Santosh Kumar Sarangi
Former Additional Secretary & Director
General, DGFT
3 Pravin Krishna Professor, Johns Hopkins University
4 Rupa Chanda Director, UNESCAP
5 Deepak Mishra
Honorary Distinguished Professor, University
of Delhi
6 Tirthankar Patnaik Chief Economist, NSE
7 Rakesh Mohan Joshi Professor and Vice Chancellor, IIFT, Delhi
8 Arpita Mukherjee Professor, ICRIER
9 James J. Nedumpara
Professor and Head, Centre for Trade and
Investment Law (CTIL)
10 C Veeramani Director, Centre for Development Studies
11 Sanjay Kathuria Visiting Senior Fellow, CSEP
12 Biswajit Nag Professor, IIFT
13 Debashis Chakraborty Professor, IIFT, Kolkata
14 Pranjul Bhandari Chief India Economist, HSBC
15 Biswajit Mandal Professor, Visva-Bharati University
16 Ashwani Bishnoi Professor, GJUS&T
17 Bhavesh Garg Professor, IIT Ropar

iiTrade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
International trade remained resilient in the first half of calendar year 2026 despite
heightened geopolitical and trade-policy uncertainty. Global goods trade reached
$13.7 trillion, growing by 12.5% y-o-y, while services trade expanded by 10.5%
1
. Against
this backdrop, India’s merchandise and services trade expanded by 15.5% y-o-y in Q1
FY27 to $506.9 billion, indicating stronger overall growth than global trade. India’s
merchandise exports increased by 16%, while merchandise imports grew by 19.8%.
Meanwhile, services exports rose by 9.6% to $106.75 billion, while services imports
increased by 10.2% to $54.53 billion, reflecting continued expansion in India’s services
trade.
India’s merchandise exports continued to grow strongly in Q1 FY27, led by mineral
fuels, electrical machinery, nuclear reactors, iron and steel, and vehicles, with rise in
shipments of petroleum products, finished steel, engineering goods, and automobiles
supporting the expansion. The import basket remained concentrated in key industrial
and energy products, with strong growth in capital goods, electronic components and
copper reflecting robust domestic investment and continued reliance on imported
industrial inputs. Geographically, exports showed gradual diversification in Q1 FY27,
with Tanzania and South Africa emerging among the top ten destinations alongside
strong growth in shipments to Singapore, while imports from Latin America and
West Africa increased sharply, partly reflecting diversification of crude oil sourcing
amid geopolitical disruptions. However, Northeast Asia, West Asia-GCC and ASEAN
continued to account for around half of India’s imports, highlighting persistent
dependence on these regions for energy, electronics and industrial inputs. Trade with
FTA partners strengthened considerably, with exports rising by 36.3% and imports by
10%, reflecting deeper regional trade and supply-chain integration.
India’s position in global digitally delivered services (DDS) has strengthened further.
India’s DDS exports rose from around $277 billion in 2024 to $317 billion in 2025,
registering 15% y-o-y growth, the highest among leading exporters. India consequently
moved from the fifth-largest DDS exporter in 2024 to the fourth-largest in 2025,
behind the United States, United Kingdom and Ireland, highlighting its growing
global competitiveness in digitally delivered services.
The thematic focus of this edition is India’s Metals and Ores Trade, given its strategic
importance for manufacturing, infrastructure, energy transition and advanced
industries. India’s metals exports stood at $34.8 billion in 2025, with iron and steel,
articles of iron and steel and aluminium accounting for ~78% of total metal exports.
India remains highly competitive in these segments but its presence is limited in
high-value non-ferrous metals and critical minerals. The analysis points to a persistent
and widening import dependence in India’s metals and ores trade. Metals and ores
import nearly doubled from $32.2 billion in 2015 to $60.5 billion in 2025, indicating that
domestic demand has outpaced domestic capacity in several segments, particularly
high-value non-ferrous and critical minerals such as copper, lithium, cobalt and nickel.
While India remains competitive in ferrous metals and aluminium, limited domestic
capabilities in exploration, processing and specialised metal production continue
to constrain value addition and increase reliance on imports. The upstream mining 1 https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-julyaugust-2026-global-trade-continues-expand-amid-rising-price

iiiTrade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
sector’s limited attractiveness to foreign investors reinforces this challenge. The
cumulative FDI equity inflow to India’s mining sector stood at $3.5 billion for the 25-
year period spanning from 2000 to 2025
2
. The sector accounts for less than 0.5% of
India’s overall long-term cumulative foreign equity inflows. This suggests that India’s
geological potential has not yet been fully translated into sustained international
investment, highlighting opportunities to further strengthen the regulatory
framework, infrastructure and availability of geoscientific information to support
investor confidence. Recent reforms under the Mines and Minerals (Development
and Regulation) (MMDR) Act, 1957 provide an opportunity to address some of these
structural constraints. The MMDR Amendment Act, 2026 seeks to establish a more
uniform and predictable fiscal framework by restricting State-level taxes and levies on
mineral rights and mineral-bearing lands, thereby reducing the cumulative burden
on mining and improving the viability of mineral projects
3
. The reform is also intended
to strengthen investor confidence by providing greater certainty and stability in the
fiscal regime, which could encourage investment in exploration, mine development
and critical minerals.
India’s metals exports also face growing risks from EU CBAM, particularly for steel and
aluminium, given their carbon intensity and the EU’s significant share of India’s exports.
India has developed significant domestic capabilities across steel, stainless steel,
alloy steel and specialised metallurgical products; however, export competitiveness
remains constrained by high raw-material and financing costs, regulatory and mining
bottlenecks, high logistics costs, limited domestic value addition and growing trade
barriers in major markets. The transition to low-carbon production is further challenged
by the high cost and limited availability of renewable energy and emerging CBAM
compliance requirements. Strengthening the sector’s global competitiveness will
therefore require a coordinated value-chain approach focused on improving mineral
exploration and raw-material security, rationalising mining and auction mechanisms,
streamlining regulatory clearances, reducing logistics and export-finance costs,
strengthening import monitoring and trade safeguards, improving renewable-energy
access and CBAM preparedness, and promoting domestic capabilities in advanced
materials and critical-mineral recycling.
2 https://www.dpiit.gov.in/static/uploads/2025/12/008805ddffdbe8bb7a9a0a20aa54b0f1.pdf
3 https://www.pib.gov.in/FactsheetDetails.aspx?id=150952&NoteId=150952&ModuleId=16&reg=48&lang=2

ivTrade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
HIGHLIGHTS
1. India’s merchandise exports increased by 16% y-o-y to $129.5 bn in Q1 FY27, while
merchandise imports grew by 19.8% to $216.1 billion, resulting in a merchandise
trade deficit of $86.6 billion.
2. Services exports remained resilient, rising by 9.6% y-o-y to $106.7 billion in Q1
FY27, while services imports increased by 10.2% to $54.3 billion, resulting in a
net services trade surplus of $52.22 billion.
3. Export composition remained unchanged from the previous quarter.
Imports remained concentrated in key industrial and energy products, with
the composition remained broadly stable, although copper replaced aircraft
among the leading import commodities.
4. Export markets showed greater diversification, with ASEAN and East Africa
recording the strongest growth at 61.3% and 89.0%, respectively, driven by
higher shipments of petroleum products, electrical machinery, engineering
goods and agricultural products.
5. Imports from Latin America and West Africa surged by 137.4% and 91.3%,
respectively, largely reflecting higher imports of crude oil, minerals and other
primary commodities, indicating greater diversification of India’s import
sourcing.
6. India’s digitally delivered services exports reached $317 billion in 2025, growing
15% y-o-y lifting India from the world’s fifth largest exporter to fourth-largest
exporter in 2025, overtaking Germany. Business services and computer services
remained the dominant components of India’s DDS exports.
7. The global metals and ores sector represents a $2 trillion import market. India
catered $36.8 billion of the global demand accounting for only 1.8% of global
metals and ores import demand in 2025, including a 2.1% share in metals and
0.5% in ores. Iron and steel and articles of iron and steel alone constitute 50.9%
of global metals demand, but India captures only 2.5% of this market.
8. India’s metals export competitiveness remains concentrated in traditional
segments, while global demand has increasingly shifted towards copper,
aluminium and nickel. India’s share in global lead exports has risen to 12.1%,
whereas export shares in major products such as iron and steel have remained
largely stagnant.
9. India has strong domestic production capabilities in several minerals, including
iron ore, zinc, chromite and bauxite, but remains relatively dependent on
imports for manganese, copper and magnesite. Mineral production is also
geographically concentrated, with Odisha, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh
accounting for over three-fourths of total production.
10. India remains a net importer of both iron and steel and aluminium, with imports
exceeding exports in 2025. Iron and steel exports stood at $9.9 billion against
imports of $16.5 billion, while aluminium exports were $6.8 billion compared
with imports of $9.9 billion.

vTrade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
11. Critical mineral import dependence is deepening amid rising domestic
demand. Copper imports more than tripled to $11.8 billion in 2025, while India
remains 100% import-dependent on nickel and cobalt.
12. India’s metals trade is highly concentrated across key trading partners. The
US accounts for 10–30% of India’s exports across major metal categories, while
China supplies over 25–35% of import demand in leading categories.
13. China is also a major import source across India’s key metal categories, with its
share ranging from around 25% to 43%.
14. Critical mineral security is becoming central to India’s industrial and energy-
transition strategy, with the National Critical Mineral Mission adopting a full
value-chain approach covering exploration, mining, processing, recycling and
overseas acquisition of mineral assets.
15. The metals sector continues to face structural competitiveness constraints, with
the availability and competitiveness of domestic raw materials being affected
by mineral costs and delays in mine operationalisation. Downstream steel
production is further affected by royalty and levy burdens, auction premiums
and delays in the operationalisation of lapsed iron-ore blocks.
16. Export competitiveness in the sector is being eroded by high energy, finance
and compliance costs, particularly for steel exporters facing elevated renewable-
power costs, limited renewable banking, CBAM verification constraints and
PCFC financing costs of around 5–7%.
17. Import competition and market-access barriers are limiting expansion of
specialised metals exports, with zero-duty imports of certain high-value alloys,
rising steel imports under FTAs and significant tariff/quota barriers in the EU,
US, Mexico and MERCOSUR constraining domestic capacity utilisation and
export growth.
18. Strengthening India’s metals and ores trade performance requires
rationalisation of mineral auctions and acceleration in mine development by
reviewing royalty and auction-premium structures; introducing a single-stage
sealed-bid mechanism with a realistic reserve price; and setting fixed timelines
for re-auction and operationalisation of lapsed iron-ore and other mineral
blocks.
19. Address import and market-access pressures through targeted trade measures
by strengthening FTA melt-and-pour/rules-of-origin checks, reviewing zero-
duty treatment and quality-control requirements for strategic alloys such as
nickel-based superalloys, using product-specific tariff-rate quotas where import
surges threaten domestic capacity, and introducing phased domestic-content
requirements and targeted incentives for aerospace-grade steel, superalloys,
aluminium, titanium and critical-mineral recycling.
20. The evolving metals trade landscape increasingly favours countries with strong
downstream capabilities, technology and integrated industrial ecosystems,
rather than resource availability alone. India’s future competitiveness will
therefore depend on moving beyond primary metals towards higher-value
processing and advanced materials.

viTrade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
CONTENTS
A. India’s Trade Analysis..........................................................................................................................1
1. Merchandise and Services Analysis......................................................................................................2
2. Compositional Analysis.................................................................................................................................3
3. Trade Direction....................................................................................................................................................5
4. Regional Analysis...............................................................................................................................................6
5. FTA Partners..........................................................................................................................................................8
6. India’s Merchandise Exports Presence Globally ��9
7. India’s Export of Digitally Delivered Services ��10
B. Thematic Analysis: Metals and Ores Trade............................................................................. 13
1. Overview: Metals and Ores Trade.........................................................................................................14
2. Global Trade Landscape of Metals and Ores. ................................................................................15
3. Domestic Scenario for Metals and Ores in India. .......................................................................19
4. Changing Composition of Global Metals Trade.........................................................................23
5. Mapping Global Demand and India’s Position among Leading Exporters............ 25
6. Analysing India’s Import Dependence in Leading Metals................................................. 30
7. India’s Participation in Value Chains for Metal Exports......................................................... 32
8. CBAM’s Impact on India’s Metal Sector ..........................................................................................33
9. Critical Minerals................................................................................................................................................35
10. Industry Insights on Strengthening India’s Metals and Ores
Trade Performance ��39
11. Way Forward.......................................................................................................................................................41
C. Policy Highlights................................................................................................................................45
1. Global Trade–Related Policy Updates...............................................................................................46
2. India’s Trade Policy Developments....................................................................................................46
3. Commodity Price Trends...........................................................................................................................47

viiTrade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
AI Artificial Intelligence
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CBAM Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
CCTS Carbon Credit Trading Scheme
CECM Centre of Excellence on Critical Minerals
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
DDS Digitally Delivered Services
DMF District Mineral Foundation
EFTA European Free Trade Association
EODC Export Obligation Discharge Certificate
EPCG Export Promotion Capital Goods
ESR Electro Slag Remelting
EU European Union
EU ETS European Union Emissions Trading System
EURIBOR Euro Interbank Offered Rate
EVs Electric Vehicles
FTA Free Trade Agreement
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council
GOI Government of India
GSI Geological Survey of India
GVA Gross Value Added
HR Hot-Rolled
HS Harmonized System
IMF International Monetary Fund
IT Information Technology
MERCOSUR Southern Common Market
MMDR Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation)

viiiTrade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
MRO Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul
MRV Monitoring, Reporting and Verification
NCMM National Critical Mineral Mission
NMET National Mineral Exploration Trust
PCFC Pre-Shipment Credit in Foreign Currency
PSUs Public Sector Undertakings
PV Photovoltaic
RCA Revealed Comparative Advantage
REEs Rare Earth Elements
SIMS Steel Import Monitoring System
SOFR Secured Overnight Financing Rate
UAE United Arab Emirates
UK United Kingdom
US / USA United States / United States of America
USTR United States Trade Representative
VAR Vacuum Arc Remelting
VIM Vacuum Induction Melting
WTO–IMF World Trade Organization–International Monetary Fund

1Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
A.
INDIA’S TRADE
ANALYSIS

2Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
A. India’s Trade Analysis
Global trade remained resilient in the first half of calendar year 2026, with goods
trade reaching approximately $13.7 trillion, up 12.5% y-o-y, while services trade grew
by 10.5%4. Geopolitical uncertainty continued to drive the reconfiguration of global
supply chains and trading relationships, resulting in shifts in bilateral trade patterns
and greater diversification of trading partners.
India’s merchandise and services trade performance recorded a 15.5% y-o-y increase
during April–June 2026, supported by growth in both exports and imports. During
this period, total trade reached $506.9 bn, up from $438.9 bn in the same period last
year. In the current period, exports grew 13.0% to $236.2 bn, while imports grew 17.8%
to $270.6 bn between April–June 2026 (Fig 1).
Fig 1: Total Trade performance between Apr-June’2616.0%
19.8%
26.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Q1 (EX) Q1 (IM)
Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026 FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Total Trade Export Import Trade Balance
$Billion
Apr - June 2025 Apr - Jun 2026 Change % (RHS)
Fig - 1
Fig 2: Merchandise Trade (Monthly) Fig 3: Merchandise Trade (Quarterly)
Fig 4: Services Trade (Monthly) Fig 5: Services Trade (Quarterly )

15.4%
30.9%
59.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jun (EX) Jun (IM)Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)

12.7%
8.9%
16.8%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
0
10
20
30
40
Jun (EX) Jun (IM)Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026 FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)16.0%
19.8%
26.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Q1 (EX) Q1 (IM)
Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026 FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Total Trade Export Import Trade Balance
$Billion
Apr - June 2025 Apr - Jun 2026 Change % (RHS)
Fig - 1
Fig 2: Merchandise Trade (Monthly) Fig 3: Merchandise Trade (Quarterly)
Fig 4: Services Trade (Monthly) Fig 5: Services Trade (Quarterly )

15.4%
30.9%
59.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jun (EX) Jun (IM)Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)

12.7%
8.9%
16.8%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
0
10
20
30
40
Jun (EX) Jun (IM)Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026 FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)
9.6%
10.2%
9.0%
0%
4%
8%
12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 (EX) Q1 (IM) Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026 FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)
9.6%
10.2%
9.0%
0%
4%
8%
12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 (EX) Q1 (IM) Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026 FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)
Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
1. Merchandise and Services Analysis
In June 2026, merchandise exports rose by 15.4% y-o-y to $40.38 billion, while imports
increased by 30.9% to $70.80 billion, widening the trade deficit by 59.3% to $30.42
billion (Fig. 2). On a quarterly basis, exports grew by 16.0% to $129.50 billion, while
imports rose by 19.8% to $216.12 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $86.62 billion,
26.0% higher y-o-y (Fig. 3).
Fig 2: Merchandise Trade (Monthly) Fig 3: Merchandise Trade (Quarterly)
Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
4 https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ditcinfd2026d7_en_0.pdf

3Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
India’s services exports stood at $37.02 billion in June 2026, registering a 12.7% y-o-y
growth, while services imports rose by 8.9% to $18.42 billion, resulting in a services
trade surplus of $18.60 billion (Fig. 4). During Q1 FY27, services exports increased by
9.6% to $106.75 billion, while imports grew by 10.2% to $54.53 billion, resulting in a net
services trade surplus of $52.22 billion (Fig. 5).
Fig 4: Services Trade (Monthly) Fig 5: Services Trade (Quarterly) 16.0%
19.8%
26.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Q1 (EX) Q1 (IM)
Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026 FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Total Trade Export Import Trade Balance
$Billion
Apr - June 2025 Apr - Jun 2026 Change % (RHS)
Fig - 1
Fig 2: Merchandise Trade (Monthly) Fig 3: Merchandise Trade (Quarterly)
Fig 4: Services Trade (Monthly) Fig 5: Services Trade (Quarterly )

15.4%
30.9%
59.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Jun (EX) Jun (IM)Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)

12.7%
8.9%
16.8%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
0
10
20
30
40
Jun (EX) Jun (IM)Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026 FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)
9.6%
10.2%
9.0%
0%
4%
8%
12%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 (EX) Q1 (IM) Trade Balance
$Billion
FY 2026 FY 2027 y-o-y % (RHS)
Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
2. Compositional Analysis
2.1 Merchandise Exports
In Q1 FY27, exports of leading
5
commodities amounted to $85.7 bn marking a y-o-y
increase of 19.3%. The leading commodities continued to be mineral and related fuels
(28.6%), electrical machinery and parts (19.8% share), and nuclear reactors (11.9%). The
list of leading commodities remained the same as the previous quarter (Fig 6).
Among the major export segments, all recorded positive y-o-y growth in Q1 FY27 with
mineral fuels recording the highest growth of 37.4%, supported by higher petroleum-
product exports amid favourable global price and refining-margin conditions.
Petroleum Products exports increased from $7.12 billion in April 2025 to $9.59 billion in
April 2026
6
. Electrical machinery and iron & steel also recorded strong growth of 20.0%
and 22.9%, respectively, reflecting rising global demand for electronics, engineering
goods and metal products. Finished steel exports grew by 31.4%, driven by higher
exports of HR coils/strips, pipes and plates, particularly to the UAE and Vietnam
7
.
Vehicle exports grew by 13.1%, supported by continued overseas demand for Indian
automobiles supported by strong demand from Latin America, Europe and Japan
8

while organic chemicals and nuclear reactors exports increased by 16.7% and 12.8%,
respectively.
5 Leading commodities are the top ten commodities with the highest value share in exports in the current quarter.
6 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2261383&reg=3&lang=1
7 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseDetail.aspx?PRID=2303018&reg=48&lang=1
8 https://www.siam.in/press-release.aspx

4Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
Fig 6: Composition and Growth of ExportsFig 6: Composition and Growth of Exports
Fig 7: Composition and Growth of Imports

(-
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Mineral and related fuels
Electrical machinery & parts
Nuclear reactors, boilers & parts thereof
Natural, cultured pearls & precious stones
Organic chemicals
Plastic and articles thereof
Animal or vegetable fats
Optical/Medical/Surgical Instruments & parts
Copper & articles thereof
Iron & steel
8: Exports to Major Destinations &YoY Growth Fig 9: Top Destinations Share (%)
-45%
-5%
35%
75%
115%
155%
0
10
20
30
$Billion
Q1 FY26 Q1 FY27 % Y-o-Y Growth Q1 (RHS)
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
% share in India's exports Q1'FY27

-3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32%
Mineral and related fuels
Electrical machinery and parts
Nuclear reactors, boilers & parts thereof
Natural, cultured pearls & precious stones
Vehicles other than railways & parts
Pharmaceutical products
Organic chemicals
Cereals
Iron & steel
Articles of iron & steel
28.6%(37.4%)

Note: Y-o-y growth of the commodity in India’s export for this quarter is mentioned in parenthesis
Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
2.2 Merchandise Imports
In Q1 FY27, the leading imports
9
amounted to $216.1 billion, registering a y-o-y increase
of 19.8%. The share of leading imports is topped by mineral fuels led imports (32.2%),
followed by electrical machinery (15.1%), nuclear reactors, boilers and parts (10.6%),
and natural and cultured pearls (7.7%). Compared with the previous quarter, the
composition remained broadly similar, with copper and articles thereof replacing
aircraft, spacecraft and parts thereof among the leading commodities. In terms of
growth, nine of the ten leading import commodities recorded positive y-o-y growth,
with nuclear reactors, boilers and parts witnessing the highest growth of 35.7%,
followed by electrical machinery at 33.2% and animal or vegetable fats at 23% (Fig. 7).
Iron and steel was the only leading commodity to register a decline, falling by 7.2%
y-o-y.
Imports under HS 84 (nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances)
recorded the highest y-o-y growth of 35.7% in Q1 FY27, supported by strong domestic
investment and infrastructure activity and rising demand for imported machinery and
capital equipment. This was consistent with the growth in capital goods production
during the quarter
10
. Imports of electrical machinery and equipment increased by
33.2% y-o-y, reflecting rising domestic demand for electrical and electronic equipment
and components, alongside continued reliance on imported inputs for India’s
expanding electronics manufacturing ecosystem. Mineral fuel imports increased by
21.3% y-o-y in Q1 FY27, despite lower crude oil import volumes, primarily reflecting
higher international crude oil prices amid geopolitical disruptions
11
.
9 Leading commodities are the top ten commodities with the highest value share in imports in the current quarter.
10 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2290419&lang=1&reg=3
11 https://ppac.gov.in/import-export

5Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
Fig 7: Composition and Growth of ImportsFig 6: Composition and Growth of Exports
Fig 7: Composition and Growth of Imports

(-
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Mineral and related fuels
Electrical machinery & parts
Nuclear reactors, boilers & parts thereof
Natural, cultured pearls & precious stones
Organic chemicals
Plastic and articles thereof
Animal or vegetable fats
Optical/Medical/Surgical Instruments & parts
Copper & articles thereof
Iron & steel
8: Exports to Major Destinations &YoY Growth Fig 9: Top Destinations Share (%)
-45%
-5%
35%
75%
115%
155%
0
10
20
30
$Billion
Q1 FY26 Q1 FY27 % Y-o-Y Growth Q1 (RHS)
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
% share in India's exports Q1'FY27

-3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32%
Mineral and related fuels
Electrical machinery and parts
Nuclear reactors, boilers & parts thereof
Natural, cultured pearls & precious stones
Vehicles other than railways & parts
Pharmaceutical products
Organic chemicals
Cereals
Iron & steel
Articles of iron & steel
28.6%(37.4%)

Note: y-o-y growth of the commodity in India’s imports for this quarter is mentioned in parentheses
Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
3. Trade Direction
3.1 Merchandise Exports
India’s exports to its top ten markets amounted to around $65.9 billion in Q1 FY27,
accounting for approximately 50.9% of total exports. Tanzania and South Africa
entered the top ten export destinations, replacing Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia
from the previous quarter. Among the top ten destinations, seven recorded positive
y-o-y growth, with the strongest growth observed in Tanzania (146.7%), followed by
Singapore (100.5%) and South Africa (76.5%). In June 2026, the year-on-year growth in
India’s exports to Tanzania was driven mainly by exports of Petroleum Products (118%),
Machinery for Dairy etc (156%), and Drug Formulations, Biologicals (48.4%)
12
. The sharp
increase in exports to Singapore 101.2% y-o-y in Q1 FY27, from $3.24 billion to $6.50
billion, was primarily driven by higher petroleum-product shipments
13
. Singapore
emerged as an important destination for Indian refined petroleum products amid
disruptions in global fuel supply and West Asia-related shipping disruptions. India’s
petroleum product exports to Singapore rose sharply, reaching $2.54 billion in April
2026 alone, up from $1.44 billion in March.
Fig 8: Exports to Major Destinations & YoY Growth Fig 9: Top Destinations Share (%)Fig 6: Composition and Growth of Exports
Fig 7: Composition and Growth of Imports

(-
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Mineral and related fuels
Electrical machinery & parts
Nuclear reactors, boilers & parts thereof
Natural, cultured pearls & precious stones
Organic chemicals
Plastic and articles thereof
Animal or vegetable fats
Optical/Medical/Surgical Instruments & parts
Copper & articles thereof
Iron & steel
8: Exports to Major Destinations &YoY Growth Fig 9: Top Destinations Share (%)
-45%
-5%
35%
75%
115%
155%0
10
20
30
$Billion
Q1 FY26 Q1 FY27 % Y-o-Y Growth Q1 (RHS)
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
% share in India's exports Q1'FY27

-3% 2% 7% 12% 17% 22% 27% 32%
Mineral and related fuels
Electrical machinery and parts
Nuclear reactors, boilers & parts thereof
Natural, cultured pearls & precious stones
Vehicles other than railways & parts
Pharmaceutical products
Organic chemicals
Cereals
Iron & steel
Articles of iron & steel
28.6%(37.4%)

Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
12 https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/ind/partner/tza
13 https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/chemicals/021626-singapore-strengthens-its-lead-as-
asias-multifuel-marine-and-aviation-hub

6Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
3.2 Merchandise Imports
India’s imports from its top ten markets accounted for around 61.4% of total imports
in Q1 FY27, amounting to $132.7 billion. China and Russia remained the major sources
of imports, accounting for 17.6% and 11.8% of total imports, respectively. Japan and
Germany entered the top ten import markets, replacing Switzerland and Thailand
from the previous quarter. Among the top ten markets, eight recorded positive y-o-y
growth, with the sharpest increase observed in Russia (52.6%), followed by South Korea
(28.0%) and China (27.9%). In contrast, imports from the UAE and Hong Kong recorded
relatively modest declines/growth, with the UAE registering the sharpest contraction
of 10.5%. The increase in imports from Russia was primarily driven by higher crude oil
imports. During Q1 FY27, disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies through the Strait of
Hormuz led Indian refiners to increase purchases from Russia. Russia’s share of India’s
crude imports rose to over 40% during the quarter
14
. Imports from China and South
Korea increased due to higher imports of electrical machinery, electronic components,
machinery and industrial inputs
15
.
Fig 10: Imports from Major Destinations & YoY Growth Fig 11: Top Destinations Share (%) Fig 9ports E D MH U ' H ' L Q D W LH Q V &YoY Growth Fig 10 Destinations Share (%)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
$Billion
Q1 FY 26Q1 FY27 % Y-o-Y Growth Q1 (RHS)
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
% share in India's imports Q1'FY27
Fig 11RegionWise Export Composition and Growth

(-

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
North America
EU Countries
ASEAN
West Asia- GCC
NE Asia
South Asia
Other European Countries
East Africa
Latin America
West Africa
Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
4. Regional Analysis
4.1 Merchandise Exports
India’s exports to its top 10 export regions accounted for 87.8% of total exports in
Q1 FY27. Among the major regions, eight recorded positive y-o-y growth, with East
Africa emerging as the fastest-growing region, registering an 89.0% increase, driven
by sharp growth in exports to Tanzania and South Africa particularly in mineral fuels.
ASEAN also recorded robust growth of 61.3%, supported particularly by a doubling of
exports to Singapore
16
, while South Asia (36.7%) and Northeast Asia (29.5%) benefited
from stronger exports to markets such as Sri Lanka and China, respectively. The
broad-based growth across these regions was supported by strong performance in
engineering goods, electronic goods, chemicals, gems and jewellery, and rice, which
were among the key drivers of India’s export growth during the quarter.
Other European Countries
17
also recorded strong growth of 21.9%, while exports to
Latin America and West Africa increased by around 9.2% each, reflecting continued
14 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indian-refiners-turn-russia-latam-oil-june-quarter-data-shows-2026-07-21/
15 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2277931&lang=2&reg=48
16 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=2284139&lang=2&reg=48
17 Other European Countries constitute Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, UK, Union
of Serbia & Montenegro

7Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
diversification towards non-traditional markets. In contrast, West Asia-GCC was the
only major region to record a contraction, declining by 9.4%, likely reflecting trade and
shipping disruptions arising from the conflict in West Asia
18
during the quarter. North
America and EU countries, meanwhile, recorded only modest growth of 1.8% and
3.2%, respectively, indicating relatively subdued demand compared with the stronger
momentum in Asian and African markets.
Fig 12: Region-Wise Export Composition and Growth Fig 9ports E D MH U ' H ' L Q D W LH Q V &YoY Growth Fig 10 Destinations Share (%)
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
$Billion
Q1 FY 26Q1 FY27 % Y-o-Y Growth Q1 (RHS)
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
% share in India's imports Q1'FY27
Fig 11RegionWise Export Composition and Growth

(-

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
North America
EU Countries
ASEAN
West Asia- GCC
NE Asia
South Asia
Other European Countries
East Africa
Latin America
West Africa
Note: y-o-y growth of the region in India’s exports for this quarter is mentioned in parentheses
Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
4.2 Merchandise Imports
India’s imports from its top 10 regions accounted for around 93.3% of total imports in
Q1 FY27. Among these, eight regions recorded positive y-o-y growth. Northeast (NE)
Asia remained India’s largest import source, accounting for 27.7% of total imports, with
imports rising by 26.4%, reflecting continued dependence on the region for electronics,
machinery and intermediate goods. ASEAN also recorded growth of 15.3%, supported
by higher imports of electronic components, machinery and industrial inputs.
Latin America saw the strongest growth, with imports surging 137.4%, driven largely
by increased crude oil purchases
19
as India diversified sourcing amid disruptions
to Middle Eastern supplies. West Africa also recorded a sharp increase of 91.3%,
supported by higher imports from Ghana and Burkina Faso, particularly of natural
and cultured pearls, fertilisers and cotton. Other CIS Countries recorded growth of
52.8%, while imports from North America and NE Asia increased by 26.9% and 26.4%,
respectively. In contrast, imports from EFTA and West Asia-GCC declined by 13.1%
and 7.2%, respectively. Despite some diversification towards Latin America and West
Africa, India’s import basket remained heavily concentrated in NE Asia, West Asia-GCC
and ASEAN, which together accounted for around 52% of total imports, underscoring
continued dependence on these regions for energy, electronics and industrial inputs.
18 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-june-merchandise-trade-deficit-3043-bln-reuters-calculation-
shows-2026-07-13/
19 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/indian-refiners-turn-russia-latam-oil-june-quarter-data-shows-2026-07-21/

8Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
Fig 13: Region-Wise Import Composition and GrowthFig 12RegionWise port Composition and Growth
(-

(-
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
NE Asia
West Asia- GCC
Other CIS Countries
ASEAN
North America
EU Countries
Latin America
West Africa
East Asia (Oceania)
European Free Trade Association (EFTA)
Fig 13Exports-
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
0
5
10
15
20
$Billion
Q1 FY26 Q1 FY27 y-o-y change in Q1'FY26 (RHS)

Note: y-o-y growth of the region in India’s imports for this quarter is mentioned in parentheses
Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
5. FTA Partners
5.1 Merchandise Trade with FTA Partners
India’s trade with its FTA partner countries remained robust in Q1 FY27, with exports
rising from $38.63 billion to $52.66 billion, registering a 36.3% y-o-y growth. Imports
from FTA partners also increased by 10.0%, from $65.32 billion to $71.99 billion, resulting
in a continued trade deficit with FTA economies. ASEAN and the UAE remained the
largest FTA partners, accounting for a substantial share of both exports and imports.
On the export side, Sri Lanka (124.6%), Singapore (100.5%), and Malaysia (74.3%) recorded
strong growth, while exports to ASEAN as a bloc increased by 61.3%. Higher shipments
of petroleum products, electronics, engineering goods and agricultural products
supported the increase, with the sharp rise in Singapore exports also reflecting higher
petroleum-product shipments. Exports to South Korea, Australia and Japan increased
by 21.6%, 25.1% and 22.7%, respectively. In contrast, exports to the UAE declined by
11.8%, amid weaker shipments of petroleum products and other key export items.
Fig 14: Exports- FTA PartnersFig 12RegionWise port Composition and Growth
(-

(-
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
NE Asia
West Asia- GCC
Other CIS Countries
ASEAN
North America
EU Countries
Latin America
West Africa
East Asia (Oceania)
European Free Trade Association (EFTA)
Fig 13Exports-
-40%
0%
40%
80%
120%
160%
0
5
10
15
20
$Billion
Q1 FY26 Q1 FY27 y-o-y change in Q1'FY26 (RHS)

Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
On the import side, imports from Sri Lanka (59.4%) and Malaysia (28.0%) recorded
the strongest growth among major FTA partners, followed by South Korea (28.0%),
Thailand (24.3%) and Singapore (20.0%). The increase was driven by greater inflows of

9Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
electrical and electronic goods, machinery, industrial inputs and other intermediate
goods, reflecting continued regional supply-chain integration. In contrast, imports
from the UAE declined by 10.5%, partly reflecting lower imports of crude oil and
petroleum products, while imports from Nepal declined by 18.5%.
Fig 15: Imports- FTA Partners-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
$Billion
ASEAN
UAE
Singapore
South
Korea
Japan
Malaysia
Thailand
Australia
SAFTA
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Bhutan
Mauritius
Q1 FY26 Q1 FY27 y-o-y change in Q1'FY26 (RHS)
Fig - 14

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
$ Billion
India's Exports World Imports World Import Growth (RHS)
Fig - 15
India's Export Growth (RHS)
Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
6. India’s Merchandise Exports Presence Globally
India’s export basket continues to show an apparent mismatch with global demand.
Nearly 68% of global imports are concentrated in products where India’s average
export share is below 1% (Category 1). However, these products account for only 9%
of India’s exports, valued at $40.2 billion in 2025, highlighting India’s limited presence
in large global demand pools. At the other end, products where India commands
an export share of more than 10% account for just 3% of global imports (Category 4),
but contribute 28% of India’s exports, valued at $125.4 billion, with India holding an
average 18.7% share of world imports. This contrast indicates that India has a stronger
presence in relatively smaller global markets, while its presence remains limited across
products with a larger share of global demand.
Mid-range products (Categories 2 and 3, where India’s export share ranges between 1%
and 10%) together contributed ~63% of India’s export basket, in 2025. These categories
account for 29% of the global import basket, indicating meaningful presence across a
sizeable range of global markets. However, India’s presence remains relatively limited
in products with very large global demand, as reflected in Category 1, where its average
share stands at just 0.2% despite these products accounting for 68% of world imports.
The distribution points to significant scope for expanding India’s presence in high-
demand global product segments. Strengthening competitiveness and market
presence in such products could help align India’s export basket more closely with
global demand and support sustained growth in merchandise exports.

10Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
Table 1: India’s Export Presence In Global Demand
Average Share %
(2021-2025)
2025 (US$ billion) Share % in 2025
India’s
Export
Share %
in World’s
Import
(2025)
Category
India’s export
share in
World’s import
Number
of 6HS
items
India’s
Exports
World’s
Imports
India’s
Export
Basket
World’s
Import
Basket
Category 1 Less than 1% 4361 40.2 17485.0 9.0% 67.8% 0.2%
Category 2
Between
1% - 5%
1410 141.8 5774.0 31.8% 22.4% 2.5%
Category 3
Between
5% - 10%
385 139.1 1857.9 31.2% 7.2% 7.5%
Category 4More than 10% 486 125.4 671.7 28.1% 2.6% 18.7%
Total of the
above
6642 446.6 25788.6
Source: ITC Trade Map
7. India’s Export of Digitally Delivered Services (DDS)
India’s position in global digitally delivered services (DDS) has strengthened further,
with the latest WTO estimates pointing to a shift from rapid expansion to greater global
market prominence. The WTO defines DDS as services traded through computer
networks, including those delivered through the internet, applications, email, voice
and video calls, and digital intermediation platforms. Digitally delivered services trade
expanded strongly during 2015–2025. India’s DDS exports increased steadily from
around $92 billion in 2015 to $317 billion in 2025, while global imports rose from about
$1.9 trillion to $4.5 trillion over the same period. The data show that India’s DDS exports
increased from $277 bn in 2024 to $317 bn in 2025, registering a ~ 15% y-o-y increase;
the corresponding growth was 11% for the UK, 10% for China & the USA, and 9% for
Germany. This lifted India from the fifth-largest global exporter in 2024 to fourth-
largest in 2025, overtaking Germany. India’s share of global DDS exports consequently
increased from 5.8% to 6%.
Fig 16: Digitally Delivered Services Exports Trade Value (2015-2025)-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
$Billion
ASEAN
UAE
Singapore
South
Korea
Japan
Malaysia
Thailand
Australia
SAFTA
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Bhutan
Mauritius
Q1 FY26 Q1 FY27
y-o-y change in Q1'FY26 (RHS)
Fig - 14

0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
$ Billion
India's Exports World Imports World Import Growth (RHS)
Fig - 15
India's Export Growth (RHS)
Source: Authors Calculation and WTO

11Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
The improvement is particularly significant when viewed against India’s earlier
trajectory. Between 2019 and 2025, India’s DDS exports increased from $123 billion
to $317 billion, more than doubling in six years. The expansion has also been much
stronger than growth in India’s conventional merchandise exports, reinforcing the
structural shift toward remotely delivered, skill-intensive services.
The global DDS export landscape remains concentrated among a few major economies.
The United States leads with a 16% share of world DDS exports, followed by the UK (10%)
and Ireland (9%). India accounts for 6% of global DDS exports, alongside Germany, but
recorded 15% y-o-y growth in 2025, the highest among the leading exporters. China,
Singapore and the Netherlands each recorded around 7–10% growth, while the UK
grew by 11%. India’s combination of a sizeable global share and relatively faster export
growth highlights its growing competitiveness in digitally delivered services.
India’s DDS exports continue to show a strong concentration in business- and
technology-oriented services and computer services. The 2025 data indicate that
these two categories continue to dominate, accounting for approximately 54.5% and
39.2%, respectively. Thus, while computer services remain central to India’s digital
export strength, the relative contribution of other business services has increased
significantly, with their share rising from 42.5% in 2015 to 54.5% in 2025, an increase of
~12%. This points to India’s expanding role beyond conventional IT/software delivery
into consulting, engineering, R&D, professional and technical business services.
Fig 17: Top DDS Exporters and Their Share in Global Exports, 2025

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
USA UK Ireland India Germany China SingaporeNetherlands
Share in World Exports % Y-o-Y Growth 2025
Fig - 16

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Information services
Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e
Telecommunications services
Insurance and pension services
Personal, cultural, and recreational services
Financial services
Computer services
Other business services
Share in World Import Basket (2025) Share in India's Exports Basket (2025)
India's Share in World Imports (2025)
Fig - 17
Source: WTO
This compositional shift matters because it suggests India’s competitive advantage
is increasingly built around higher-value knowledge and business functions rather
than only software and IT-enabled services. The growing presence of global capability
centres, alongside Indian firms’ expanding provision of engineering, analytics,
consulting, cloud and technology-enabled professional services, is creating a broader
base for digitally delivered exports.
However, the next phase of growth will depend increasingly on market access and the
regulatory architecture governing digital trade. The rapid increase in export value has
occurred alongside a global shift towards digitally delivered trade. Yet global digital
services markets remain highly concentrated, with the US, UK and Ireland together
accounting for a substantial share of exports. India’s rise to fourth place therefore

12Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
represents significant progress, but also indicates the scale of the opportunity to
move further up the global value chain.
The policy challenge has consequently shifted from building basic export capability
to deepening competitiveness and securing predictable market access. Future
policy should focus on expanding India’s presence in high-value digital segments
such as AI-enabled services, cloud computing, cybersecurity, engineering and R&D,
while improving access for smaller firms and emerging service providers. Greater
regulatory clarity on cross-border data flows, digital taxation, electronic transactions
and emerging AI-related trade rules will become increasingly important as digital
trade expands.
Fig 18: Composition of Digitally Delivered Services (2025)

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
USA UK Ireland India Germany China SingaporeNetherlands
Share in World Exports
% Y-o-Y Growth 2025
Fig - 16

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Information services
Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e
Telecommunications services
Insurance and pension services
Personal, cultural, and recreational services
Financial services
Computer services
Other business services
Share in World Import Basket (2025) Share in India's Exports Basket (2025)
India's Share in World Imports (2025)
Fig - 17
Source: WTO
Overall, India’s DDS story has shifted from rapid growth to global competitive
consolidation. India has increased its exports by nearly $40 billion in one year, raising
its global share to 6%. The next policy priority should therefore be to convert this scale
advantage into greater value addition, diversify into high-end digital services, and
deepen integration with emerging global digital value chains.

13Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
B.
THEMATIC ANALYSIS:
METALS AND ORES
TRADE

14Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
B. Thematic Analysis: Metals and Ores Trade
1. Overview: Metals and Ores Trade
The metals and ores sector forms the backbone of India’s industrial economy, supplying
the essential raw materials that support manufacturing, infrastructure development,
energy security and export competitiveness. Unlike other manufacturing industries
that produce final goods, the sector sits upstream in the production ecosystem,
generating extensive forward and backward linkages across the economy. Steel,
aluminium, copper, zinc and other industrial metals are indispensable inputs for
automobiles, engineering goods, capital goods, construction, railways, defence,
electronics, renewable energy, shipbuilding and urban infrastructure. Consequently,
the sector’s performance has important implications not only for merchandise exports
but also for manufacturing productivity, industrialisation and long-term economic
growth.
India possesses one of the world’s largest mineral resource bases and has emerged as
a leading producer of several strategically important ores. The country is the world’s
second-largest producer of crude steel, second-largest producer of aluminium,
fourth-largest producer of iron ore, and one of the leading producers of chromite and
bauxite
20
. The sector also supports industrial development across several mineral-
rich states, including Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, and Rajasthan,
where mining activities generate employment, infrastructure development, logistics
networks, and significant public revenues.
Steel continues to anchor India’s metals ecosystem and remains one of the country’s
most important manufacturing industries. India has retained its position as the world’s
second-largest crude steel producer since 2018, supported by sustained expansion in
domestic demand, rising production capacity and investments across the value chain.
Steel consumption has more than doubled over the past decade, reflecting robust
demand from infrastructure, housing, engineering goods, automobiles and capital
equipment
21
.
The mining and quarrying sector, occupies an equally important position in India’s
external trade and industrial value chains. Mining and quarrying contribute ~2% to
India’s Gross Value Added (GVA) for 2025-26
22
. Metals and ores are critical intermediate
inputs for several export-oriented industries, including engineering goods,
automobiles, electrical machinery and transport equipment, and thus influence
the competitiveness of downstream manufacturing. The global imports of metals
and ores increased from $1.2 tn in 2015 to $2 tn in 2025, accounting for nearly 7.5% of
world merchandise imports. During the same period, India’s metals exports increased
from $21.8 bn to $36.8 bn, while India’s share of global metals and ores demand rose
marginally from 1.7% in 2015 to 1.8% in 2025.
India’s metals export basket is led by iron and steel, articles of iron and steel, and
aluminium, but remains largely dominated by iron and steel reflecting the country’s
strong manufacturing base in ferrous metals. Iron and steel exports reached $9.9
20 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2019556&reg=48&lang=2
21 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2258028&reg=3&lang=1
22 The share has been computed at constant price for the base year 2022-23. https://esankhyiki.mospi.gov.in/
macroindicators?product=nas

15Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
bn in 2025, while exports of articles of iron and steel increased to $10.6 bn, together
accounting for nearly three-fifths of India’s metals exports. Aluminium has emerged
as one of the fastest-growing export segments, with exports rising to $6.8 billion and
India’s export share of global aluminium demand increasing from 1.7% in 2015 to 2.6%
in 2025. At the same time, India’s exports value remains relatively small in several
high-value non-ferrous metals, including nickel, tin and copper products, highlighting
opportunities for greater value addition and diversification into emerging metal value
chains.
Beyond conventional industrial metals, the global metal sector is undergoing a
structural transformation driven by the clean energy transition, digitalisation and
evolving manufacturing technologies. Rapid growth in electric vehicles, renewable
energy systems, battery storage, semiconductors and advanced electronics has
significantly increased demand for critical ores such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite
and rare earth elements. These ores have become central to emerging industrial value
chains, making resource security and resilient supply chains an increasingly important
component of national industrial and trade strategies.
Recognising these structural shifts, India has increasingly expanded its policy focus
from conventional mining towards securing critical mineral supply chains. Recent
initiatives, including the National Critical Mineral Mission, seek to strengthen domestic
exploration, promote mineral processing and recycling, facilitate overseas acquisition
of strategic mineral assets and reduce import dependence for critical raw materials.
These initiatives are expected to support India’s transition towards advanced
manufacturing while strengthening integration with global value chains for clean
energy technologies.
At the same time, the sector is navigating a changing global trade environment.
Growing emphasis on supply chain diversification, resource nationalisation, export
restrictions on critical ores, carbon border adjustment mechanisms and sustainability
standards is reshaping international trade in metals and ores. The transition to green
steel, recycled aluminium, and low-carbon production technologies is expected to
redefine competitiveness, while rising geopolitical uncertainty continues to shape
access to strategic raw materials and international markets. These developments
present both opportunities and challenges for India as it seeks to strengthen domestic
manufacturing capabilities while expanding its presence in global metals trade.
Against this backdrop, the following sections examine the global trade landscape of
the metals and ores sector in greater detail. The analysis maps the size and composition
of international trade across major product categories, identifies leading exporters
and emerging growth segments, and assesses India’s position in global markets. It
also evaluates India’s competitiveness across key metals and mineral products and
highlights emerging opportunities and policy priorities to strengthen value addition
and enhance India’s integration into global value chains.
2. Global Trade Landscape of Metals and Ores
This analysis examines the metals and ores trade at the HS-2 level under Chapters
72–83 (metals and articles thereof) and 26 (ores, slag and ash). The sector comprises
ferrous and non-ferrous metals, articles of metals, ores and concentrates, and other
intermediate metal products that constitute the foundation of manufacturing and
industrial production.

16Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
The global metals and ores market collectively represented a demand of approximately
$2 tn, with metals and its articles comprising $1.625 tn and ores of $371.5 bn. India’s
collective exports for the segment was $36.8 bn with metals and its articles accounting
for $34.8 bn and ores of $2.0 bn in 2025. This translates to a 1.8% share of global import
demand for metals and ores in 2025, marginally up from 1.7% a decade ago.
The global demand for metals and ores is concentrated, with iron and steel (HS 72),
articles of iron and steel (HS 73), aluminium (HS 76) and copper (HS 74) collectively
accounting for nearly two-thirds of global metals and ores demand, amounting to over
$1.38 trillion in 2025. India’s exports in these four product groups stood at $30.1 billion,
representing approximately four-fifths of the country’s total metals and ores exports.
While India’s export basket broadly aligns with the largest traded product categories
globally, competitiveness varies significantly across individual metal segments, with
exports acutely concentrated in iron, steel, and aluminium.
India exhibits its strongest export competitiveness in ferrous metals and aluminium,
where it has developed substantial manufacturing capacity and established
downstream industries. Iron and steel exports reached $9.9 billion in 2025, accounting
for 2.2% of global demand, while exports of articles of iron and steel increased to $10.6
billion, translating into a global market share of 2.8%. Aluminium has emerged as one
of India’s fastest-growing metal exports, increasing to $6.8 billion in 2025 from $2.7
bn in 2015, with a CAGR of 9.7%, significantly exceeding the corresponding growth in
global demand.
India also demonstrates strong competitiveness in selected niche metal products.
Lead (HS 78) represents the country’s most competitive segment, with an RCA of
7.0 and exports accounting for 12.1% of global demand; however, its market size is
relatively small. Zinc (HS 79) also records an RCA greater than unity, reflecting India’s
competitive position in refined metal production.
In contrast, India’s presence remains limited in several high-value non-ferrous metals.
Copper exports amounted to $2.9 billion in 2025, accounting for only 1.1% of global
demand despite rapid global demand growth from renewable energy, electrical
equipment, and electric vehicles. Similarly, exports of nickel (HS 75), tin (HS 80) and
other strategic industrial metals remain negligible, with RCA values well below unity.
These segments continue to exhibit significant import dependence, reflecting limited
domestic reserves, processing capacity and downstream manufacturing relative to
global leaders.
India’s import basket further highlights these structural characteristics. Total imports
of metals and ores increased from $32.2 bn in 2015 to $60.5 bn in 2025, almost doubling
as domestic demand from infrastructure, engineering, and manufacturing industries
rose. Iron and steel accounted for the largest share of India’s metal imports (32.1%),
followed by copper (23.1%), aluminium (19.2%), and articles of iron and steel (11.0%). The
simultaneous rise in imports and exports indicates increasing integration of India’s
manufacturing sector with global value chains, although dependence on imported
raw materials and intermediate inputs remains significant for several product
categories. (Table 2).

17Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
Table 2: Overview of India’s Trade Profile for Metals, 2025
Code Product label
World
Import
(in $bn)
Product
Share in
World
Demand
India’s
Export
(in
$bn)
India’s
export
share in
World
demand
India’s
Import
(in $bn)
Top
Exporter
and Value
(in $bn)
‘72 Iron and steel 450.3 27.7% 9.9 2.2% 16.5
China
($72.1)
‘73Articles of iron or steel376.5 23.2% 10.6 2.8% 5.7
China
($107.8)
‘74
Copper and articles
thereof
268.6 16.5% 2.9 1.1% 11.8
Congo
($30.1)
‘75
Nickel and articles
thereof
43.9 2.7% 0.2 0.4% 1.2
Indonesia
($9.7)
‘76
Aluminium and
articles thereof
259.8 16.0% 6.8 2.6% 9.9
China
($40.1)
78
Lead and articles
thereof
10.2 0.6% 1.2 12.1% 1.2 India ($1.2)
‘79
Zinc and articles
thereof
19.1 1.2% 0.8 4.1% 1.0
Belgium
($1.5)
‘80
Tin and articles
thereof
8.9 0.5% 0.0 0.4% 0.5
Indonesia
($1.8)
‘81
Other base metals;
cermets; articles
thereof
27.2 1.7% 0.2 0.9% 0.7
China
($4.8)
‘82
Tools, implements,
cutlery, spoons and
forks, of base metal
and parts
73.9 4.5% 1.2 1.6% 1.6
China
($24.5)
‘83
Miscellaneous articles
of base metal
86.9 5.3% 1.0 1.2% 1.3
China
($26.2)
Total Metals 1625.3 34.8 2.1% 51.4
Note: Values in $bn and excludes precious metals
Source: ITC Trade Map
Trade in ores and concentrates presents a contrasting picture. Global imports under
HS 26 increased from $174.1 billion in 2015 to $371.5 billion in 2025, driven largely by
growing demand for iron ore and ores used in clean energy technologies. India’s
exports of ores increased from $0.6 billion to $2.0 billion during the same period;
however, the country’s share in global demand remained limited at around 0.5%. Iron
ore constitutes nearly 90% of India’s ore exports, while exports of copper, nickel, cobalt
and other critical mineral ores remain relatively small. This reflects India’s greater
strength in metal processing rather than exports of unprocessed mineral resources.
While domestic demand from infrastructure, construction, automobiles, and
engineering industries absorbs a significant share of raw ores, India has developed
a robust manufacturing base for value-added products such as iron and steel,
aluminium, copper, and fabricated metal products (Table 3).

18Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
Table 3: Overview of India’s Trade Profile for Ores, 2025
Code Product label
World
Import
(in $bn)
Product
Share in
World
Demand
India’s
Export
(in
$bn)
India’s
export
share in
World
demand
India’s
Import
(in
$bn)
Top
Exporter
and Value
(in $bn)
‘2601
Iron ores and
concentrates, incl.
roasted iron pyrites
166.3 44.7% 1.84 0.2% 1.2
Australia
($78.4)
‘2602
Manganese ores
and concentrates
6.7 1.8% 0.01 0.0% 1.1
South
Africa
($3.2)
‘2603
Copper ores and
concentrates
122.5 33.0% 0.04 0.0% 5.3
Chile
($34.7)
‘2604
Nickel ores and
concentrates
5.1 1.4% 0.00 0.0% 0.0
Philippines
($1.4)
‘2605
Cobalt ores and
concentrates
0.0 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.0
Italy
($0.005)
‘2606
Aluminium ores
and concentrates
17.8 4.8% 0.01 5.1% 0.5
Guinea
($12.9)
‘2607
Lead ores and
concentrates
8.8 2.4% 0.05 0.0% 0.0
Peru
($1.7)
‘2608
Zinc ores and
concentrates
17.6 4.7% 0.00 0.0% 0.0
Peru
($2.2)
‘2609
Tin ores and
concentrates
2.4 0.7% 0.00 0.0% 0.0
Congo
($0.4)
‘2610
Chromium ores and
concentrates
7.5 2.0% 0.00 0.9% 0.1
South
Africa
($5.2)
Total Ores 371.5 2.03 0.5% 9.1
Note: Values in $bn and excludes precious metal ores
Source: ITC Trade Map
Overall, India’s competitiveness in metals remains concentrated in a limited number
of product groups. The country has an RCA above 1 in iron and steel, articles of iron and
steel, aluminium, and lead and zinc, while competitiveness remains relatively weak in
several technologically important non-ferrous and critical metals. At the same time,
global demand is increasingly shifting toward aluminium, copper, nickel, cobalt, and
other ores essential for electric mobility, renewable energy systems, and advanced
manufacturing. As countries diversify supply chains and invest in low-carbon industrial
technologies, expanding domestic capabilities in these emerging segments offers
India a significant opportunity to deepen value addition, reduce import dependence,
and strengthen its integration into global metals value chains.
The following sections assess India’s metals and ores sector across domestic production,
global trade trends, India’s competitive position and emerging opportunities across
key metals and ores. This analysis provides insights into product-specific strengths
and identifies areas where India can enhance export competitiveness through greater
value addition and deeper participation in global value chains.

19Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
3. Domestic Scenario for Metals and Ores in India
Domestically, India has a diverse mineral resource base and a well-established mining
sector that supports key industrial activities. India’s mining sector produces 95 minerals,
comprising 4 fuel minerals, 10 metallic minerals, 27 non-metallic minerals, 3 atomic
minerals and 51 minor minerals
23
, providing essential raw materials for industries such
as steel, aluminium, cement, ceramics and glass. The country is largely self-sufficient
in several bulk minerals, supporting its manufacturing and infrastructure sectors.
Beyond its traditional role in supplying coal and iron ore, the sector is gaining strategic
importance as the global energy transition drives demand for critical minerals used
in clean energy technologies. However, despite its vast resource base, India’s mining
sector remains underdeveloped across the value chain, particularly in mineral
processing, refining and downstream value addition.
Fig 19: Contribution and Growth of Mining and Quarrying
24
to Gross Value Added (GVA)Fig18: Contribution and Growth of Mining and Quarryingto Gross Value Added (GVA)
3.0%
2.6% 2.2%
1.8%
7.9%
10.1%
-5.6%
-3.0%
-8.2%
6.3%
6.2%
-0.8%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
Share of Mining and Qaurrying in GVA Y-o-Y Growth in Mining and Quarrying (RHS)
Fig 19: 'H P H ' L F VI S S O \ D Q G $ S S D U H Q W FH Q VI P S W LH Q 3 D W W H U Q V(in 000’ tonnes)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2024-25 2023-24 2020-21 2024-25 2023-24 2020-21
Domestic Supply Apparent Consumption
Chromite Manganese ore Magnesite Aluminium (primary)Copper (refined)
/ H D G U H Q H G Zinc (slab) Bauxite (RHS) Iron ore (RHS) Source: MoSPI
Note: Figures for 2025–26 are provisional estimates. All values are presented in ` crore at constant (2011–12 base year)
prices
Between 2014-15 and 2025-26, the mining and quarrying sector grew by an average
of 2.1%, with Gross Value Added (GVA) increasing from ₹2.89 lakh crore to ₹3.37 lakh
crore. However, its contribution to the overall economy steadily declined from 3.0%
of total GVA in 2014-15 to 1.8% in 2025-26. In contrast, mining contributes 2.4% in
China, 2.9% in Russia and Brazil, and 11.8% in Indonesia.
25
This highlights the relative
underperformance of India’s mining industries.
The sharp slowdown after 2016-17 can be attributed to a combination of cyclical
and structural factors like delays in obtaining environmental and forest clearances,
land acquisition challenges, and slow operationalisation of newly auctioned mines
constrained production in several mineral segments. The weaker industrial demand,
further weighed on mining output. Growth deteriorated further during 2019-20 due
to the broader economic slowdown and contracted sharply by 8.2% in 2020-21 as
the pandemic disrupted mining operations, labour availability, logistics and mineral
demand from user industries such as steel, cement and construction.
26,27
23 https://mines.gov.in/admin/download/69945dabea1821771330987.pdf
24 Mining and Quarrying includes coal, crude petroleum and natural gas, and other major minerals (metallic and non-
metallic) except salt and sand
25 https://www.icmm.com/website/publications/pdfs/social-performance/2025/research_mci-7-ed.pdf?cb=119321
26 https://www.assocham.org/uploads/files/Knowledge_Report_3rd_edition_of_Minerals_Mining_Conclave_2025.pdf
27 https://www.assocham.org/uploads/files/Study_Indian%20Mineral%202022.pdf

20Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
3.1 Examining Production and Domestic Self-sufficiency for Ores and Metals
India possesses a strong mineral resource base and is among the world’s leading
producers of several key minerals. It ranks 2nd globally in primary aluminium and
crude steel production, 3rd in iron ore, chromite and zinc, and contributes over 11% of
global iron ore production. It is also largely self-sufficient in bulk minerals such as iron
ore (100%), chromite (92%), bauxite (90%) and zinc (94%), providing a strong foundation
for its steel, aluminium and infrastructure industries. This resource endowment has
enabled India to emerge as a globally competitive producer of several mineral-based
products while supporting domestic industrialisation.
Table 4: India’s Position in World in terms of production and domestic self-sufficiency
Mineral
Domestic
supply
(‘000
tonnes)
b
Apparent
Consumption
(‘000 tonnes)
*
Contribution
of India
in World
Production
a
India’s rank
in world for
production
c
Order
of Self-
sufficiency
(%)
c
Bauxite 24742 27405 5.7% 6th 90%
Chromite 2971 3228 8.4% 3rd 92%
Iron ore 293773 270163 11.1% 3rd 100%
Manganese ore 3805 10365 6.5% 5th 37%
Magnesite 115 659 0.5% 15th 17%
Aluminium
(primary)
3990 4769 6.0% 2nd 84%
Copper (refined) 536 1542 1.8% 10th 35%
Steel (crude/liquid) - - 7.5% 2nd -
Lead (refined) 225 409 1.4% 10th 55%
Zinc (slab) 827 876 5.8% 3rd 94%
Source: Ministry of Mines Annual Report 2024-25
Note: a refers to 2023, b refers to 2024-25, c refers to the period 2019-23, and ‘-‘ refers to data not available. *Apparent
Consumption = (production+ import-export)
Fig 20: Domestic supply and Apparent consumption Patterns (in 000’ tonnes) 0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2024-25 2023-24 2020-21 2024-25 2023-24 2020-21
Domestic Supply Apparent Consumption
Chromite Manganese ore Aluminium (primary) Lead (refined) Zinc (slab) Bauxite (RHS) Iron ore (RHS)
Source: Ministry of Mines Annual Reports
However, India’s mineral ores profile also reveals significant vulnerabilities. India
remains dependent on imports to meet domestic demand for many categories, with
self-sufficiency levels of around 37% for manganese, 35% for refined copper, 17% for
magnesite, and 55% for refined lead. The mismatch reflects limited domestic reserves

21Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
for some minerals, declining ore grades, inadequate exploration, and insufficient
downstream refining capacity, resulting in continued import dependence for several
strategically important minerals.
Table 5: Contribution of Leading States in Selected Ores Production in India, 2024-25
State
Percentage
share of total
production in
India
Share of State in Country’s Production for selective ores
Odisha 38.4%
Chromite (100%), Bauxite (72.5%), Iron Ore (55.6%), Graphite
(39.6%), Manganese Ore (16.05%)
Rajasthan 23.2%
Lead and Zinc Ore (100%), Selenite (100%), Garnet (100%),
Siliceous Earth (100%)
Chhattisgarh 13.5% Tin (100%), Iron Ore (15.1%), Bauxite (4.3%)
Karnataka 10.1% Manganese Ore (16.1%), Iron Ore (15.6%), Bauxite (4.3%)
Maharashtra 5.4%
Kyanite (100%), Sillimanite (100%), Fluorite (32.9%), Manganese
Ore (30.3%), Bauxite (4.6%)
Jharkhand 3.6%
Bauxite (7.5%), Iron Ore (6.6%), Copper Ore (3.2%), Graphite
(0.4%)
Madhya
Pradesh
2.4%
Copper Ore (76.6%), Manganese Ore (26.1%), Phosphorite
(20.2%), Iron Ore (2.3%)
Andhra
Pradesh
1.0% Manganese Ore (11.3%), Iron Ore (0.01%)
Others 2.4%
Source: Ministry of Mines Annual Report 2024-25
Note: Only selective metallic minerals have been mentioned here for the leading states
A closer look at the sub-national level reveals the production patterns across states in
India. India’s mineral production is highly concentrated, with five states accounting
for over 90% of the country’s total mineral output. Odisha alone contributes two-
fifths of national mineral production, driven by its dominance in key bulk minerals,
producing 100% of India’s chromite, 72.5% of bauxite, and 55.6% of iron ore. Together
with Rajasthan (23.2%), Chhattisgarh (13.5%), Karnataka (10.1%), and Maharashtra
(5.4%), these states form the backbone of India’s mining sector, supplying critical raw
materials for the steel, aluminium, power, cement and manufacturing industries.
Table 6: State-wise Mineral/Ore Resources, 2025: Total resources, as on 1 April 2025 | Million tonnes
State
Iron
ore
Mang-
anese
Bau-
xite
Cop-
per
ore
Lead-
zinc
ore
Chro-
mite
Grap-
hite
Tin
Cob-
alt
Gar-
net
Lime-
stone
Nic-
kel
Odisha 15649206 2559 58 2 501 33 0.0231 17 2388 177
Rajasthan 1411 14 1 926 739 — 2 0.150.714 32825 —
Chhattisgarh5390 — 1542 5 0.02 — 26 30 — 0.0322497 —
Karnataka 11162129 47 44 — 2 1 — — — 64703 10
Maharashtra843 65 249 18 9 1 4 — — — 4102 —

22Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
State
Iron
ore
Mang-
anese
Bau-
xite
Cop-
per
ore
Lead-
zinc
ore
Chro-
mite
Grap-
hite
Tin
Cob-
alt
Gar-
net
Lime-
stone
Nic-
kel
Jharkhand 4883 23 331 446 0.0030.00145 — 9 0.11555 9
Madhya
Pradesh
403 68 336 322 22 — 29 — — — 14784 —
Andhra
Pradesh
1867 50 797 9 24 — 2 — 0.031734835 —
Others 2579 44 813 77 34 0.01 19154 5 29 90837 6
All India44187 599 6675 1900 831 515 333 84 46 67267526202
Source: National Mineral Inventory 2025 – IBM; 17848872786a6337eee5e4aChapter__4_State_wise.pdf
Note: Only selective metallic minerals have been mentioned here for the leading states
3.2 Ownership and Structure of Mining Metals and Ores in India
In 2024-25, the private sector accounted for 59.3% (₹90,431 crore) of the total value of
mineral production, compared with 40.7% (₹61,999 crore) for the public sector. Private-
sector participation was particularly dominant in limestone (95.9%), magnesite (58.5%),
iron ore (51.3%), chromite (49.2%), bauxite (48.5%) and manganese ore (43.4%), while
it exclusively mined/recovered minerals such as zinc and lead concentrates, garnet
and wollastonite. The public sector, meanwhile, retained a concentrated presence in
select minerals, accounting for 99.4% of phosphorite, 98.7% of gold ore and 87.6% of tin
concentrate, and was the sole producer of copper ore and concentrate and diamond.
Table 7: Mineral-wise ownership structure
Mineral
Private-sector
share
Public-sector share /
position
Ownership structure
Limestone 95.92% 4.08% Strongly private
Magnesite 58.52% 41.48% Private-led
Iron ore 51.32% 48.68% Broadly balanced
Chromite 49.17% 50.83% Broadly balanced
Bauxite 48.54% 51.46% Broadly balanced
Manganese ore 43.35% 56.65% Public-led
Phosphorite 0.61% 99.39% Public-dominated
Tin concentrate 12.38% 87.62% Public-dominated
Copper ore & concentrate 0% 100% Exclusively public
Zinc concentrate 100% 0% Exclusively private
Lead concentrate 100% 0% Exclusively private
Garnet 100% 0% Exclusively private
Wollastonite 100% 0% Exclusively private
Source: Ministry of Mines Annual Report 2025-26

23Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
The sector has also witnessed a decline in the overall number of operating mines,
from 2,117
28
in 2014-15 to an estimated 1,852 currently, even as the composition has
shifted towards non-metallic minerals. Metallic mineral mines increased marginally
from 693 to 707, while non-metallic mines rose from 866 to 1,145. However, the mining
sector remains structurally fragmented, with more than 60% of mining leases covering
areas below 20 hectares
29
, suggesting that the reduction in mine numbers has not
necessarily been accompanied by greater consolidation of mining operations.
This domestic production structure should be viewed against the changing
composition of global metals demand and trade, particularly the growing importance
of non-ferrous metals in clean energy, electric mobility, and advanced manufacturing.
4. Changing Composition of Global Metals Trade
The composition of global metals trade has gradually shifted towards non-
ferrous metals over the past decade, reflecting rising demand from clean energy
technologies, electric mobility and advanced manufacturing. Between 2015 and 2025,
the composition of global metals trades gradually shifted toward non-ferrous metals,
reflecting growing demand from clean energy technologies, electric mobility, and
advanced manufacturing. During this period, the share of copper and articles thereof
in global metals imports increased from 12.4% to 16.5%, representing the largest gain
(+4.2%) among all major metal categories. Aluminium and articles thereof also saw
global demand rise, with its share increasing from 14.3% to 16.0% (+1.7%), while nickel
recorded a modest increase from 2.4% to 2.7%. These trends reflect the growing
importance of metals used in renewable energy systems, power transmission,
batteries and electric vehicles.
Fig 21: India’s changing share in global import demand, 2015-25Fig 20 2 Z Q H U V K L S 6 W U X F W X U H R I 0 L Q H U D O 3 U R G X F W L R Q

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total Private sector Public sector
$ U U }
$ U }
$ U }
Figure21India’s changing share in global import demand, 201525
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Iron and steel
Articles of iron or steel
Copper and articles
thereof
Nickel and articles
thereof
Aluminium and articles
thereof
Lead and articles
thereof
Zinc and articles
thereof
Tin and articles
thereof
Other base metals;
cermets; articles thereof
Tools, implements, cutlery,
spoons and forks, of base
metal; parts thereof of
base metal
Miscellaneous articles
of base metal
India's share in world imports '15 India's share in world imports '25
Change in India's export share (2025-2015) (RHS) Change in World's import share (2025-2015) (RHS)

Source: ITC Trade Map
28 https://mines.gov.in/admin/download/6433eda82708c1681124776.pdf
29 https://mines.gov.in/admin/download/69945dabea1821771330987.pdf

24Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
In contrast, the relative importance of traditional ferrous metals has moderated over
the decade. The share of iron and steel in global metals imports declined from 30.8%
in 2015 to 27.7% in 2025, while articles of iron and steel declined from 25.6% to 23.2%,
together accounting for a reduction of over 5% in global demand. Similar declines were
observed in zinc, tin, and miscellaneous base metal products, indicating a gradual
diversification of global metals demand away from conventional ferrous products
toward higher-value, non-ferrous, and technology-intensive metals (Figure 21).
India’s export performance has broadly mirrored these evolving demand patterns
in certain product segments, although significant gaps remain. The country
strengthened its presence in aluminium, with its export share in global demand
increasing by 0.9%, closely tracking the expansion in global demand. India’s export
share also improved marginally in iron and steel (+0.4%) and articles of iron and steel
(+0.5%), despite their declining relative importance in world trade, reflecting sustained
competitiveness in these established product categories.
However, India’s export basket has not fully aligned with the fastest-growing
segments of global demand. Despite copper witnessing the largest increase in global
import share, India’s export share in copper products declined by 0.9% over the same
period. Similarly, India’s export share in nickel, another strategically important metal
for battery manufacturing and clean energy technologies, declined by 2.3%, even as
global demand rose modestly. These trends indicate that India’s export growth has
remained concentrated in traditional metal products, while its participation in several
emerging high-growth metal segments remains limited.
An important exception is lead and articles thereof, where India’s export share
increased sharply by 9.4%, substantially outpacing the relatively unchanged global
demand. India’s strong export performance in lead products is consistent with its well-
established refined and secondary lead industry, supported by an extensive battery
recycling ecosystem that has strengthened domestic production capabilities
30
.
Moderate gains were also observed in other base metals, tools and cutlery, and
miscellaneous base metal articles, although these product groups account for a
relatively small share of global metals trade.
Overall, while India has consolidated its position in traditional ferrous metals and
selected non-ferrous products such as aluminium and lead, its export basket has yet
to fully capture the structural shift in global demand toward copper, nickel, and other
metals increasingly critical for the energy transition and advanced manufacturing.
Strengthening domestic processing capabilities, promoting downstream value
addition and expanding production of strategically important non-ferrous metals will
be critical for improving India’s competitiveness in the evolving global metals trade
landscape.
5. Mapping Global Demand and India’s Position among Leading Exporters
Global trade in base metals and their products is highly concentrated among a few
industrial economies that combine abundant raw material availability with large-
scale processing capacity, integrated manufacturing ecosystems, and strong export
competitiveness. Across HS Chapters 72–83, China emerges as the dominant exporter
in most product categories, while Germany and the United States maintain strong
30 https://www.gravitaindia.com/blogs/lead-recycling-plant-india-capacity-technology-compliance

25Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
positions in high-value and technologically sophisticated metal products among the
five countries examined, along with India. South Korea and Indonesia have developed
niche comparative advantages in steel and critical ores respectively, whereas India’s
export presence remains significant only in a few non-ferrous metals such as lead and
zinc.
China’s dominance stems from a mix of policies aimed at strengthening domestic
mining, refining, manufacturing and foreign investments across Africa.
31
It also
commands a substantial share of global refining capacity for several critical ores.
Germany consistently ranks as the second-largest exporter across most product
groups, particularly in fabricated and precision-engineered metal products, with
14.3% of global exports in tools (HS 82), 10.3% in miscellaneous metal articles (HS
83), 9.6% in articles of iron and steel (HS 73), and around 6–8% across most other
base metals. Germany’s strength comes from its advanced manufacturing sector,
specialised engineering capabilities, high-quality metallurgy, and deep integration
within European automotive and machinery value chains.
32
Rather than competing
on volume, German firms compete through technology-intensive and high-value-
added metal products. Among Asian competitors, South Korea has established
itself as a major exporter of steel and zinc products through globally competitive
steel producers, advanced shipbuilding, automobile manufacturing and electronics
industries. Indonesia stands out with an exceptional 22.2% share in nickel exports and
20.1% in tin, reflecting its abundant mineral reserves and its strategic policy of banning
exports of unprocessed ores to encourage domestic smelting and downstream
processing. Massive investments in nickel refining and battery-material value chains
have transformed Indonesia into a key global supplier of processed nickel products.
Fig 22: Competitor Export Presence- Share in World’s Export, 20250% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Iron and steel
Articles of iron or steel
Copper and articles thereof
Nickel and articles thereof
Aluminium and articles thereof
Lead and articles thereof
Zinc and articles thereof
Tin and articles thereof
Other base metals; cermets; articles thereof
Tools, implements & parts thereof of base metal
Miscellaneous articles of base metal
China Germany US India South Korea Indonesia Others
Source: ITC Trade Map
India’s export presence remains relatively modest across most base metal categories,
generally accounting for 1-4% of global exports, except in lead (12.1%) and zinc (4.1%),
where it is more competitive due to an integrated domestic mining and smelting
31 https://www.inss.org.il/strategic_assessment/metal/
32 https://www.britannica.com/place/Germany/Manufacturing

26Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
industry. India’s comparatively lower shares in steel, fabricated metal articles and
engineering-intensive products indicate that its participation remains concentrated
in intermediate products rather than higher-value manufacturing. This highlights
the need to strengthen value addition, adopt technology, and integrate into global
metal value chains to compete more effectively with leading exporters (Figure 22).
This suggests that export leadership in metals is increasingly determined not only
by mineral availability but also by processing capacity, technological sophistication,
integrated industrial ecosystems, scale economies, and supportive industrial policies.
Countries that have invested in downstream manufacturing, refining capabilities,
and specialised engineering have secured significantly larger shares of global metal
exports than those relying primarily on raw material production.
Further, the direction of trade suggests that India’s exports of iron and steel (HS 72) are
primarily destined for Italy (12.2%), the United States (7.6%) and Nepal (7.3%), reflecting
India’s growing role as a supplier of primary and semi-finished steel products to both
advanced manufacturing economies and regional markets. Global exports remain
dominated by China (16.7%), followed by Germany and Indonesia, highlighting their
greater scale and stronger integration into global steel value chains.
Table 8: Mapping Global Demand and India’s Export Footprint in Metal Exports
HS
Code
Product
World
Imports
($bn)
India’s Top Export
Destinations (%
share)
Major Global
Exporters
(Share in
World Exports
%)
Top Importers (%)
‘72 Iron and steel450.3
Italy (12.2%), USA
(7.6%), Nepal (7.3%)
China (16.7%),
Germany (6.9%),
Indonesia (6.5%)
China (6.9%),
Germany (6.1%),
USA (6%)
‘73
Articles of
iron or steel
376.5
USA (29.9%), UAE
(8.8%), Germany
(4.8%)
China (27.8%),
Germany (9.3%),
Italy (5.6%)
USA (11.7%),
Germany (7.8%),
France (3.7%)
‘74
Copper
and articles
thereof
268.6
Saudi Arabia (28.8%),
China (19.6%), USA
(12.3%)
Congo (11.5%),
Chile (7.3%),
China (7.2%)
China (27.8%), USA
(9.3%), Germany
(5.5%)
‘75
Nickel and
articles
thereof
43.9
USA (14.7%), UK (13%),
UAE (7.1%)
Indonesia
(22.4%), USA
(11%), China
(8.1%)
China (32.4%), USA
(7.7%), Japan (7.2%)
‘76
Aluminium
and articles
thereof
259.8
USA (15.3%), South
Korea (7.4%), Vietnam
(7.1%)
China (15.1%),
Germany (7.8%),
USA (5.1%)
USA (10.2%),
Germany (8.8%),
China (6.5%)
‘78
Lead and
articles
thereof
10.2
South Korea (27.5%),
Singapore (25.8%),
Vietnam (9.2%)
India (12.4%),
Australia (8%),
South Korea
(7%)
USA (12.5%), India
(12.1%), Vietnam
(6.3%)
‘79
Zinc and
articles
thereof
19.1
Thailand (15.9%),
Singapore (14.7%),
Saudi Arabia (12.9%)
Belgium (8.2%),
Netherlands
(7.7%), South
Korea (7.3%)
USA (13%),
Germany (7.7%),
China (5.8%)
‘80
Tin and
articles
thereof
8.9
UAE (20.9%), South
Korea (15.7%),
Malaysia (13%)
Indonesia
(18.6%), Peru
(11.7%), Israel
(10%)
USA (12.7%), China
(9.6%), Japan (8.4%)

27Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
HS
Code
Product
World
Imports
($bn)
India’s Top Export
Destinations (%
share)
Major Global
Exporters
(Share in
World Exports
%)
Top Importers (%)
‘81
Other base
metals;
cermets;
articles
thereof
27.2
USA (30.2%),
Singapore (12.7%),
Germany (12.5%)
China (19%),
USA (16.4%),
Germany (8.2%)
USA (14.4%), China
(13.3%), Germany
(9.3%)
‘82
Tools,
implements,
cutlery,
spoons and
forks, of base
metal; parts
thereof of
base metal
73.9
USA (26.4%),
Netherlands (8.5%),
Germany (5.8%)
China (32.1%),
Germany
(13.8%), USA
(5.8%)
USA (15.2%),
Germany (9.6%),
France (3.8%)
‘83
Miscellaneous
articles of
base metal
86.9
USA (26%), UK (11.7%),
UAE (5.7%)
China (30.1%),
Germany
(10.3%), USA
(6.6%)
USA (17.4%),
Germany (7.3%),
France (4.4%)
Source: ITC Trade Map
A similar pattern is evident in articles of iron or steel (HS 73), aluminium (HS 76),
and higher-value fabricated products such as tools and implements (HS 82) and
miscellaneous articles of base metal (HS 83), where the United States is India’s single
largest export destination. The prominence of the US market reflects strong demand
for Indian engineering products and metal manufactures, with the United States
remaining India’s largest destination for engineering exports
33
. US accounted for ~16%
of total engineering exports, with exports increasing by 2.3% during FY 2025–26. China’s
leadership across iron and steel, aluminium, tools and miscellaneous base metal
products is underpinned by its extensive manufacturing ecosystem and economies
of scale
34
, while Germany’s strong presence reflects its specialisation in high-value
engineering and industrial equipment integrated into European value chains.
India’s exports of copper (HS 74), nickel (HS 75), lead (HS 78), zinc (HS 79) and tin (HS
80) are comparatively diversified across markets in West Asia, East Asia and Europe,
with destinations including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, South Korea, Singapore and the
United Kingdom. These products largely serve as intermediate inputs for downstream
industries such as automobiles, electronics, construction and industrial machinery.
However, unlike China, Germany or resource-rich economies such as Indonesia in
nickel, India has a relatively limited presence in global exports of processed non-
ferrous metals, reflecting its smaller domestic resource base and refining capacity.
Overall, India’s metal exports remain concentrated in a few product categories and
are largely positioned in intermediate segments, with relatively limited presence
in higher-value processed metals and engineering products. The following section
examines India’s import profile and dependence across key metal and mineral
products, highlighting areas where domestic supply and processing capabilities
remain limited.
33 https://www.eepcindia.org/export-statistics
34 https://www.steel.org/2026/07/aisi-says-china-report-on-so-called-excess-capacity-fundamentally-flawed/

28Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
INDIA LEADING THE RECYCLED MARKET IN LEAD
Lead is one of the most recycled base metals and the largest source of lead
worldwide comes from recycling. It can be melted and reprocessed several
times, and the final product (termed secondary lead) remains indistinguishable
from primary lead, which is extracted from ore and consumes more energy,
adding to costs. Secondary lead producers cater to about 55% of Indian lead
demand.
35
India’s emergence as the world’s leading lead exporter is primarily
due to its dominance in recycled lead production. Lead is one of the most circular
industrial metals, enabling countries with limited ore reserves to become globally
competitive through recycling rather than mining as over 95% of it can be
recycled.
36
Scrap includes lead-acid batteries, cable coverings, pipes, sheets, and
lead-coated metals. Over 80% of global demand stems from batteries alone,
37

despite the growth of lithium-ion batteries. Major demand for lead comes from
batteries, construction materials, radiation shielding, and industrial applications.
Global import demand in 2025 stands at $10.2 billion, of which $8.2 billion, or
~85%, is unwrought lead, followed by scrap at $0.7 billion and articles of lead
at the remaining $1.1 billion. The United States of America, India, Vietnam and
Singapore are the leading importers, together comprising over 40% of global
import demand for 2025.
Unlike countries such as Australia, Peru or China, which have the highest reserves
38
,
India’s comparative advantage lies in an extensive lead recycling ecosystem
centred on used lead-acid batteries (ULABs). India has leveraged this circular
value chain by developing one of the world’s largest lead recycling industries.
The predictable replacement cycle of batteries, combined with an established
nationwide scrap collection network and comparatively lower processing costs,
has ensured a steady supply of recyclable feedstock for Indian smelters
The industry’s competitiveness has also been supported by substantial
private investment in integrated recycling and refining capacity. Government
policy has further reinforced India’s position by strengthening the circular
economy for batteries. The Battery Waste Management Rules, 2022 introduced
Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), requiring battery producers to ensure
environmentally sound collection and recycling of end-of-life batteries. These
regulations aim to formalise battery collection, improve recovery rates and
increase the availability of recyclable material for domestic refiners. As India’s
vehicle fleet and industrial battery usage continue to expand, the domestic
supply of recyclable lead is expected to rise further, supporting long-term export
competitiveness.
35 https://www.careratings.com/uploads/newsfiles/Lead%20Industry.pdf
36 https://ila-lead.org/sustainability/
37 https://www.unep.org/topics/chemicals-and-pollution-action/chemicals-management/pollution-and-health/heavy-
metals/lead
38 India possesses relatively modest lead reserves of around 1.9 million metric tonnes, compared with Australia’s 35
million metric tonnes, China’s 22 million metric tonnes, and Peru’s 5 million metric tonnes.

29Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
6. Analysing India’s Import Dependence in Leading Metals
The composition of India’s metal import basket reveals a notable shift in demand over
the past decade. Iron and steel, copper and articles thereof, and aluminium and articles
thereof accounted for 74.3% of India’s total metal imports in 2025, up from 69.9% in
2015, indicating a growing concentration of import demand in a few key industrial
metals. This reflects the growing material requirements of India’s infrastructure
expansion, manufacturing sector and energy transition, all of which rely heavily on
these metals as critical intermediate inputs.
Despite remaining the largest import category, the share of iron and steel declined
significantly from 43.9% in 2015 to 32.0% in 2025. This moderation is consistent with the
substantial expansion of India’s domestic steelmaking capacity under the National Steel
Policy 2017 and Domestically Manufactured Iron and Steel Products (DMI&SP) Policy,
which has increased production by integrated steel producers and greater self-
reliance in conventional steel products. Consequently, while dependence has reduced
in relative terms, imports remain important for downstream manufacturing sectors
such as automobiles, engineering goods and capital equipment.
In contrast, copper and articles thereof recorded the sharpest increase in import
share, rising from 12.4% to 23.1%, making it the second-largest component of India’s
metal imports. This trend reflects both robust domestic demand and structural
supply constraints. Copper consumption remains critical with the rapid expansion
of renewable energy, electric vehicles, transmission networks, electronics and
construction, all of which are significantly more copper-intensive than conventional
technologies. The global copper trade also remains highly concentrated, with China
owning over 44% of global processing capacity. At the same time, domestic refined
copper production remains constrained due to India’s limited copper ore reserves, and
there remains only one domestic copper miner, Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) (after
the closure of Sterlite’s Tuticorin), which continues to face operational inefficiencies,
leading to stagnant ore and concentrate production.
39
This necessitates substantial
imports of concentrates and refined copper to bridge the supply gap.
Similarly, the share of aluminium and articles thereof increased from 13.6% to 19.2%
over the decade. Aluminium remains an essential input across industries such as
power, transport, construction, packaging, and consumer goods.
40
Although India
is among the world’s largest producers of bauxite and primary aluminium
41
, rising
imports largely reflect growing demand for value-added aluminium products,
specialised alloys, rolled and extruded products, and high-performance materials
used in transportation, renewable energy, electrical equipment and packaging. The
increasing sophistication of domestic manufacturing has therefore shifted import
demand towards downstream aluminium products rather than primary metal alone.
39 https://csep.org/reports/the-copper-report-navigating-through-the-demand-and-supply-gap/
40 https://cuts-citee.org/pdf/Briefing_Paper_Reforming_Indias_Aluminium_Ecosystem_Tariff_Rationalisation_and_
Competitive_Pricing_for_MSME_Growth.pdf
41 https://www.niti.gov.in/sites/default/files/2026-01/Roadmap_for_Aluminium_Sector_Decarbonisation.pdf

30Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
Fig 23: Change in share of metal imports in India’s Metal Import basket, 2015-25Figure 22 &H P S H W L WH U D [ SH U W 3 U H V H Q F HShare in World’s Export2025
0% 10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
China Germany US India South KoreaIndonesiaOthers
Figure 23Change in share of metal imports in India’s Metal Import basket, 201525
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Iron and steel
Copper and articles thereof
Aluminium and articles
thereof
Articles of iron or steel
Tools, implements, cutlery,
spoons and forks, of base
metal; parts thereof of
base metal
Miscellaneous articles of
base metal
Lead and articles thereof
Nickel and articles thereof
Zinc and articles thereof
Other base metals;
cermets; articles thereof
Tin and articles thereof
Iron and steel
Articles of iron or steel
Copper and articles thereof
Nickel and articles thereof
Aluminium and articles thereof
Lead and articles thereof
Zinc and articles thereof
Tin and articles thereof
Other base metals; cermets; articles thereof
Tools, implements & parts thereof of base metal
Miscellaneous articles of base metal
Share in India's metal imports'15Share in India's metal imports'25Change in India's import share (2025-2015) (RHS)
Source: ITC Trade Map
The remaining categories account for a relatively small share of India’s metal imports,
although some important structural shifts are evident. Articles of iron or steel declined
from 14.1% to 11.0%, suggesting greater domestic value addition in fabricated metal
products. Conversely, lead, zinc, tin, and other base metals registered marginal
increases in share, reflecting growing industrial demand from sectors such as batteries,
galvanising, chemicals, and electronics. While nickel and articles thereof experienced
a decline in import share from 4.4% to 2.3%, this largely reflects the faster growth of
imports in other metal categories rather than a decline in absolute imports, as India’s
demand for nickel continues to rise with the expansion of stainless-steel production
and battery manufacturing (Figure 23).
India has achieved self-sufficiency in several major ores, including iron ore, bauxite,
chromite, and limestone. However, it remains import-dependent for several essential
ores, relying entirely on imports for critical ores such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel,
and heavily on graphite, potash, phosphorus, magnesite, manganese, and rock
phosphate.
42
As domestic demand rises, reducing import dependence has become a
strategic priority.
43

A closer look at India’s imports of the top five metal products, which rose from $19.0
billion in 2015 to $23.6 billion in 2025, shows the increase was driven mainly by rising
demand from infrastructure, automobiles, renewable energy, and manufacturing.
While imports of iron and steel (3.5% CAGR), articles of iron and steel (4.2%), copper
(13.9%) and aluminium (10.6%) expanded steadily over the decade, imports of nickel
declined at a CAGR of 0.1%. This indicates a gradual shift towards greater domestic
value addition, although dependence on imported primary and intermediate metals
remains significant. India depends heavily on imports of copper ores and concentrates
to meet 96% of demand, while domestic availability satisfies only about 4%.
44
42 India is 100% dependent on imports for lithium, cobalt, and nickel; 25% for graphite and remains heavily reliant on
foreign supplies for potash and phosphorus. (https://dspstg.sansad.in/getFile/app/lsscommittee/Coal,%20Mines%20
and%20Steel/pr_files/Eng%20press%20release%20self%20reliance.pdf?source=app)
43 https://mines.gov.in/webportal/nationalorescenario
44 https://www.apex-avalon.sg/wp-content/uploads/insights/Indian-Non-Ferrous-Metals-Industry-Way-Forward.pdf

31Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
Table 9: Import demand Analysis for Leading Metals
Product
code
Product
label
India’s
Imports
(2015,
$bn)
India’s
Imports
(2025
$bn)
HHI
(2015)
HHI
(2025)
CAGR
Imports
(2015-25)
Top Import
Sources
‘72
Iron and
steel
11.6 16.4 0.1 0.07 3.5%
South Korea
(16.4%), Indonesia
(11.2%), Japan
(10.6%)
‘73
Articles
of iron or
steel
3.7 5.6 0.14 0.21 4.2%
China (43.4%),
Japan (7.3%), USA
(6.1%)
‘74
Copper
and
articles
thereof
3.2 11.8 0.07 0.09 13.9%
Japan (18.2%),
Tanzania (15.4%),
UAE (15.4%)
‘75
Nickel and
articles
thereof
1.2 1.2 0.13 0.11 -0.1%
China (26.2%),
Japan (13.5%), USA
(9%)
‘76
Aluminium
and articles
thereof
3.6 9.9 0.08 0.1 10.6%
China (25.5%), USA
(9.5%), UAE (8.1%)
Source: ITC Trade Map
The composition of import sources reveals an uneven pattern of supply diversification,
although overall importing source countries remain broadly diversified, with HHI
values remaining below 0.5 across the leading metal imports. Supplier concentration
declined for iron and steel (HHI: 0.10 to 0.07) and nickel (0.13 to 0.11), reflecting broader
sourcing and improved resilience. In contrast, concentration increased for articles
of iron and steel (0.14 to 0.21) and aluminium (0.08 to 0.10), indicating growing
dependence on a smaller set of suppliers. China remains a dominant source across
several categories, underscoring persistent vulnerabilities in strategically important
supply chains. At the same time, the prominence of countries such as South Korea,
Japan, Indonesia, and the UAE reflects India’s continued integration with East Asian
and regional manufacturing networks. (Table 9).
Overall, the changing composition of India’s metal imports points towards a structural
transformation in the economy. As India pursues its manufacturing and energy
transition ambitions, strengthening domestic capabilities in processing, refining
and downstream metal fabrication will be critical to reducing import dependence in
strategically important metals while enhancing supply-chain resilience.
7. India’s Participation in Value Chains for Metal Exports
India’s basic metals and fabricated metal products sector has seen a significant increase
in its integration with global value chains over 2015–2022. Domestic value added
45

(DVA) embodied in gross exports nearly doubled from $14.6 billion in 2015 to $29.0
billion in 2022, indicating that a much larger share of the sector’s export earnings is
generated through domestic production. This reflects the expansion of India’s steel
45 Domestic Value Added = Domestic Value-Added Share*Gross Exports, where Domestic Value-Added Share is the
proportion of exports that is actually generated within the domestic economy, including value added by different
domestic industries.

32Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
and metal manufacturing capacity, rising export competitiveness, and stronger
domestic supplier linkages in downstream fabricated metal products. The sharp
increase between 2020 and 2021 coincides with the post-pandemic recovery in global
steel demand and elevated international metal prices, which boosted India’s exports
of iron, steel and related products.
At the same time, foreign value added
46
(FVA) embodied in exports increased from
$10.2 billion in 2015 to $17.2 billion in 2022. The rise in FVA suggests the sector continues
to rely on imported intermediate inputs, such as alloying elements (e.g., nickel,
chromium and molybdenum), specialised steel products, machinery, and industrial
inputs processed domestically before export. Despite greater use of imported
intermediates, domestic producers consistently generated around two-thirds of the
total value embodied in exports, with the DVA share remaining between 59% and 68%
throughout the period and standing at 62.8% in 2022.
Fig 24: India’s GVC Integration in the Manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal products
Fig 24India’s GVC Integration in the Manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal products
14.6
29.0
10.2
17.2
58.9%
62.8%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Domestic value added in gross exports Foreign value added in gross exports DVA share in %
Fig 25: India's Iron & Steel Trade Exposure vs
Top Competitors (in %) 2025
Fig 26: India's Aluminium Trade Exposure vs
Top Competitors (in %) 2025

39.3%
41.8%
16.4%
45.2%
8.5%
29.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
15.6%
62.1%
50.9%
15.4%
34.4%
16.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
IndiaIndiaTurkeySouth
Korea
UKIndonesiaVietnam TurkeyUKCanadaBahrainUAE
Source: OECD TiVA
Note: Values are in USD billion
China, Germany, the United States and Italy generate substantially higher domestic
value added in both gross exports and foreign final demand in the basic metals and
fabricated metal products sector, reflecting their strong industrial base and extensive
integration across global manufacturing networks. These economies not only produce
primary metals but also participate in higher value-added downstream activities such
as machinery, automobiles and engineering products, enabling domestic value to
flow through multiple stages of global value chains before reaching final consumers.
8. CBAM’s Impact on India’s Metal Sector

India’s metals and mining sector forms the backbone of the country’s industrial base,
supplying critical inputs to construction, infrastructure, transportation, energy and
manufacturing. However, its production processes, particularly coal-based steelmaking
and electricity-intensive aluminium smelting, are highly carbon-intensive, resulting
in significant embedded emissions. As climate-related trade measures become
increasingly prominent, these characteristics make India’s metallurgical industries
particularly vulnerable to carbon-based border measures.
Under the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), iron
and steel and aluminium are among the first sectors subject to mandatory emissions
46 Foreign Value Added = Foreign Input Share*Gross Exports, where Foreign Input Share is the share of exported
products/services that comes from imported inputs

33Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
reporting and carbon pricing. Their inclusion reflects both their high emissions
intensity and their substantial trade with the EU. India’s iron and steel sector, one
of the largest contributors to industrial greenhouse gas emissions, has an average
carbon emission intensity of approximately 2.5–2.6 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of crude
steel, considerably higher than Turkey (1.04), South Korea (1.5), the UK (1.65), Vietnam
(1.84) and the EU average (around 1.0–1.2 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of steel)
47
. This is
primarily due to the dominance of coal-based blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace (BF-
BOF) and coal-based direct reduced iron (DRI) production routes. Similarly, although
India’s aluminium exports have a relatively lower emissions intensity per unit of export
value (approximately 0.33 kg CO₂ per US dollar of exports)
48
, the sector remains highly
exposed to CBAM because aluminium smelting is heavily dependent on captive
coal-fired power generation and still lacks fully developed monitoring, reporting and
verification (MRV) systems.
India’s merchandise exports to the European Union (EU) amounted to USD 84.7 billion
in 2025, with iron and steel ($3.9 billion) and aluminium ($1.06 billion) constituting the
largest CBAM-covered export categories. Together, these sectors represent the bulk
of India’s direct exposure to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM),
making them particularly vulnerable to additional carbon-related compliance costs.
Indian exporters of iron and steel and aluminium are required to purchase CBAM
certificates corresponding to the embedded carbon emissions of their products, with
certificate prices linked to the prevailing EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) carbon
price. Given the relatively high carbon intensity of India’s coal-based steel production
and electricity-intensive aluminium smelting, CBAM is expected to increase export
costs, compress profit margins, and reduce the price competitiveness of Indian
products in the European market. The EU accounts for approximately 22% of India’s
combined steel and aluminium exports, making these sectors particularly sensitive to
the new carbon pricing regime
49
.
The trade exposure analysis reveals significant differences in the dependence of major
steel and aluminium exporting countries on the European Union (EU) market, which
directly influences their vulnerability to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
(CBAM).
Fig 25: India’s Iron & Steel Trade Exposure vs Top
Competitors (in %) 2025
Fig 26: India’s Aluminium Trade Exposure vs Top
Competitors (in %) 2025Fig 24India’s GVC Integration in the Manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal products
14.6
29.0
10.2
17.2
58.9%
62.8%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Domestic value added in gross exports Foreign value added in gross exports DVA share in %
Fig 25: India's Iron & Steel Trade Exposure vs
Top Competitors (in %) 2025
Fig 26: India's Aluminium Trade Exposure vs
Top Competitors (in %) 2025

39.3%
41.8%
16.4%
45.2%
8.5%
29.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
15.6%
62.1%
50.9%
15.4%
34.4%
16.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
IndiaIndiaTurkeySouth
Korea
UKIndonesiaVietnam TurkeyUKCanadaBahrainUAE
Source: ITC Trade Map
47 https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC129297
48 https://icrier.org/pdf/pb64_Transitioning-from-PAT-to-a-Carbon-Trading-System.pdf
49 https://eu-india.org/2026/01/03/between-india-and-the-eu-a-carbon-gap-and-an-fta-bridge/

34Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
In the iron and steel sector, India’s trade exposure stands at 39.3%, indicating that
nearly two-fifths of its steel exports are destined for the EU. This places India among the
more exposed exporters, although it is not the most dependent. The United Kingdom
(45.2%) and Türkiye (41.8%) exhibit even greater reliance on the EU market, reflecting
their deep integration with European manufacturing value chains and geographical
proximity. In contrast, Vietnam (29.2%), South Korea (16.4%), and Indonesia (8.5%) have
substantially lower exposure, suggesting that their steel exports are more diversified
across global markets. India’s relatively high dependence on the EU implies that
CBAM is likely to affect its steel exports more than those of countries with broader
export destinations, potentially reducing price competitiveness unless producers
adopt lower-carbon production technologies. A more striking pattern emerges in
the aluminium sector, where India’s trade exposure is only 15.6%, significantly lower
than that of most competing exporters. Türkiye records the highest exposure (62.1%),
followed by the United Kingdom (50.9%) and Bahrain (34.4%), indicating a strong
dependence on EU demand. Canada (15.4%) and the United Arab Emirates (16.6%)
exhibit exposure levels comparable to India. The relatively low exposure of Indian
aluminium exports suggests that the direct impact of CBAM on the sector may be
more limited than for countries that rely heavily on the EU market. However, this
should not be interpreted as low overall risk, as India’s aluminium production remains
relatively carbon-intensive due to its dependence on coal-based electricity, increasing
the potential carbon cost per unit exported.
CBAM represents more than a trade compliance measure; it marks a structural
shift in the relationship between climate policy and international trade. For India,
competitiveness in iron and steel and aluminium exports will increasingly depend
on production carbon efficiency alongside traditional cost advantages. While export
diversification towards non-CBAM markets may provide temporary relief, sustaining
long-term competitiveness will require structural decarbonisation through cleaner
production technologies, greater use of renewable energy and green hydrogen, and
stronger monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems. Implementing India’s
Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) is expected to support this transition by creating
a domestic carbon price signal, incentivising emissions reductions, and potentially
allowing exporters to offset domestic carbon costs against future CBAM liabilities.
Consequently, the transition towards low-carbon manufacturing is no longer solely
an environmental imperative but a strategic economic necessity for sustaining export
growth and integration into global value chains.
9. Critical Minerals

Critical minerals have emerged as strategic inputs for economic development, national
security and the global clean energy transition. Minerals such as lithium, cobalt,
nickel, graphite, copper and rare earth elements (REEs) are essential for batteries,
electric vehicles (EVs), solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, wind turbines, power grids and
other advanced technologies. Their strategic importance arises not only from their
economic value but also from the concentration of reserves, mining and processing
capacity in a limited number of countries. Any disruption in their supply can therefore
create significant vulnerabilities for downstream industries and delay the deployment
of clean energy technologies.
For India, securing access to critical minerals is particularly important given its
ambitious climate and energy targets. India aims to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil

35Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
electricity capacity by 2030
50
, meet 50% of its electricity requirements from renewable
sources, reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 45% from 2005 levels, and achieve
net-zero emissions by 2070. Meeting these targets will require rapid expansion of
solar and wind power, battery storage and EVs, all of which are mineral-intensive.
For instance, silicon, tellurium, indium and gallium are used in solar PV technologies;
neodymium and dysprosium are critical for permanent magnets used in wind turbines;
while lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite are important inputs into batteries. Copper is
also indispensable for electricity networks, renewable energy infrastructure and EVs.
India remains significantly dependent on imports for several critical minerals. In
particular, lithium, cobalt and nickel are currently almost entirely import dependent,
while domestic availability and processing capabilities for several other minerals
remain inadequate relative to projected demand. Given the long gestation period of
domestic mining projects, which can often exceed a decade, and the time required
to establish beneficiation, processing and refining capacities, imports will remain
an important source of supply in the near to medium term. This makes diversifying
and strengthening the resilience of India’s international supply chains an important
component of its critical mineral strategy.
Recognising these challenges, the Government of India launched the National Critical
Mineral Mission (NCMM) in 2025 to establish a comprehensive framework for securing
the country’s critical mineral supply chain. A committee constituted by the Ministry
of Mines in November 2022 identified 30 critical minerals, of which 24 have been
included in Part D of Schedule I of the MMDR Act, 1957, giving the Central Government
exclusive authority to auction mining leases and composite licences for these minerals.
The committee also recommended establishing a Centre of Excellence on Critical
Minerals (CECM) to periodically review the list of critical minerals and guide India’s
strategic approach
51
.
The NCMM adopts a full value-chain approach, covering exploration, mining,
beneficiation, processing, recycling and overseas acquisition of mineral assets. The
mission targets 1,200 domestic critical mineral exploration projects between 2024-25
and 2030-31, alongside overseas asset acquisition, recycling, processing infrastructure,
skill development and technological innovation. It also envisages 26 overseas critical
mineral assets through PSUs and 24 through private entities, four mineral processing
parks, three Centres of Excellence, 1,000 patents and training of 10,000 personnel.
Recycling is another important pillar, with a target of recovering 400 kt of critical
minerals from secondary sources.
The Geological Survey of India (GSI) is accelerating domestic exploration. During the
2024-25 field season, GSI undertook 195 critical mineral exploration projects, including
projects in Rajasthan. Exploration is also being extended to offshore regions containing
polymetallic nodules with potential resources of cobalt, nickel, manganese and
REEs. In parallel, the introduction of an Exploration Licence, streamlined regulatory
approvals, and incentives for recovering minerals from sources such as fly ash, tailings,
and red mud are intended to increase private-sector participation and improve
resource recovery.
50 https://ieefa.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/India’s%20critical%20mineral%20imports%20in%202025%20and%20a%20
shift%20towards%20supply%20diversification_0.pdf
51 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2120525&reg=3&lang=2

36Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
Of the 30 minerals identified as critical by the Government of India for their economic
significance, the import data of five minerals have been analysed, given their central
role in renewable energy technologies and applications. These include cobalt, copper,
graphite, lithium, and nickel.
Table 10: India’s Import Dependence and Demand Outlook for Select Critical Minerals
HS
Code
Critical
mineral
India’s
Import
2015
(in USD
mn)
India’s
Imports
2025 (in
USD mn)
CAGR in
%
(2015-
2025
Import
Depen-
dence*
(%)
Demand
in
kt* (2025-
2030)
Share of top
exporters in India’s
imports (%), 2025
74 Copper 3,288.211,846.6 13.7% 57 66,069
Japan (18.2%),
Tanzania (15.4%),
UAE (11.4%), USA
(6.6%), China (6.2%)
75 Nickel 1,184.41,174.6 -0.1% 100 11,543
China (26.2%), Japan
(13.5%), USA (9.0%),
Norway (6.6%), UK
(5.8%)
2404,
3801
Grap-
hite
67.7 179.0 10.2% 28 46,489
Natural Graphite:
Madascasgar (36.1%),
Tanzania (30.5%),
Mozambique
(9.6%), China (9.0%),
Germany (4.0%)
Synthetic Graphite:
China (52.3%),
Germany (8.3%), USA
(7.1%), Japan (5.7%),
Norway (4.6%)
2822 Cobalt 2.7 13.0 16.9% 100 1,454
Belgium (58.3%),
South Africa (27.4%),
China (6.5%),
Germany (5.4%),
Netherlands (1.0%)
282520,
283691
Lithium 19.888 32.791 5.1% 100 5,468
Lithium oxide
and hydroxide:
Argentina (32.5%),
Belgium (25.6%),
China (22.6%),
South Korea (6.0%),
Australia (3.7%)
Lithium carbonates:
China (34.3%), USA
(21.0%), Chile (13.6%),
Belgium (10.5%),
Argentina (10.5%)
Source: ITC Trade Map, *Critical Mineral Assessment Report (NITI Aayog)
a. Copper: India’s imports show moderate diversification, with Japan (18.2%),
Tanzania (15.4%) and the UAE (11.4%) together accounting for 45% of total imports
in 2025. The presence of the USA (6.6%) and China (6.2%) indicates a relatively
broad supplier base, while Others account for 42.2%, reducing dependence
on any single country. However, the concentration among the top three

37Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
suppliers suggests scope for further diversification to strengthen supply-chain
resilience. Rising domestic demand and limited reserves could increase import
dependence and the import bill. India’s copper demand is projected to reach
8.8–9.8 million tonnes by 2047, compared with copper imports of $14.45 billion
in FY2025
52
. As global demand rises, India should balance domestic production
with imports by expanding mining and refining capacity, maintaining strategic
reserves, and securing overseas copper assets. Indian companies expanding
into international exploration, such as the Adani–Codelco partnership in Chile,
can support long-term supply security and diversification.
b. Nickel: India’s nickel imports are relatively diversified, with China (26.2%),
Japan (13.5%) and the USA (9.0%) together accounting for 48.7% of imports
in 2025. However, India remains 100% import-dependent for nickel, making
diversification important for supply security. Globally, supply is highly
concentrated. Indonesia accounted for around 66.7% of global mined nickel
production in 2025, followed by the Philippines at 6.9%
53
. This makes India
vulnerable to disruptions in a small number of major producing countries.
India should therefore focus on diversifying suppliers, securing overseas
nickel assets and developing domestic recovery and recycling capabilities.
The Ministry of Mines is already supporting projects for nickel recovery from
laterites, mine tailings and spent batteries
54
, which could provide a secondary
domestic source and reduce import dependence over the longer term.
c. Graphite: India’s natural graphite imports are relatively diversified, with
Madagascar (36.1%) and Tanzania (30.5%) together accounting for 66.6% of
imports in 2025. In contrast, synthetic graphite imports are more concentrated,
with China alone accounting for 52.3%, increasing India’s exposure to a single
supplier. This matters because China produces around 70% of global natural
graphite, controls 80% of synthetic graphite supply, and holds about 90% of
global anode manufacturing capacity. China’s export controls since 2023 further
highlight this vulnerability. Given graphite’s importance for lithium-ion battery
anodes and clean-energy technologies, India should diversify natural graphite
sources, reduce dependence on China for synthetic graphite, and develop
domestic graphite processing, anode manufacturing, and recycling capabilities.
d. Cobalt: Cobalt remains a significant supply-chain vulnerability due to high
upstream and processing concentration. Belgium and South Africa together
accounted for 85.7% of India’s cobalt imports in 2025, although these may also
function as processing or trading hubs rather than reflecting mining locations.
Globally, the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) accounted for 73% of
mined cobalt production in 2025, followed by Indonesia at 14%, while China
remains the leading refiner. The DRC move from an export ban to quota-based
exports for 2026–27 adds further uncertainty to global availability and prices
55
.
For India, this makes supplier diversification and overseas resource access
important, alongside developing domestic recycling and recovery of cobalt
from spent batteries. Because cobalt is primarily used in battery applications,
52 https://mines.gov.in/admin/storage/ckeditor/Final_Copper_Vision_Document_20_1751560229.pdf
53 https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026.pdf
54 https://research.mines.gov.in/OngoingProjectsDetails.aspx
55 https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026.pdf

38Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
strengthening secondary supply could reduce exposure to both DRC mining
disruptions and China’s downstream processing dominance.
e. Lithium: India’s lithium imports show some diversification but remain
concentrated. Argentina, Belgium and China account for 80.7% of lithium
oxide and hydroxide imports, while China alone supplies 34.3% of lithium
carbonate. Chile and Argentina offer scope for diversification, although imports
through Belgium and other trading hubs may mask underlying upstream
concentration. With China producing around 70% of global lithium chemicals,
India remains exposed to supply-chain risks. Falling prices reflect rapid supply
expansion and inventory accumulation, while long-term demand is expected
to remain strong given the energy sector’s dominant share of lithium-ion
battery demand. India should therefore prioritise direct sourcing, long-term
offtake agreements and partnerships with resource-rich countries.
10. Industry Insights on Strengthening India’s Metals and Ores Trade Performance
56
India has developed significant domestic capabilities across steel, stainless steel,
alloy steel and specialised metallurgical products. However, industry stakeholders
highlighted that export competitiveness remains constrained by high input and
financing costs, limited access to key markets, import competition in specialised
products, and gaps in domestic value addition. These constraints are particularly
relevant as India seeks to expand exports of higher-value steel and advanced materials.
The key issues emerging from industry discussions are summarised below.
• Limited Mineral Exploration and High Cost of Raw Materials: India’s mineral
exploration ecosystem remains constrained by fragmented geological data,
limited availability of risk capital and inadequate participation of junior
exploration companies. At the same time, high royalty rates, additional levies
and aggressive auction premiums increase the cost of mineral extraction and
are passed through to downstream industries. These factors constrain domestic
raw material availability, increase input costs and affect the competitiveness of
metals and mineral-based exports.
• Unsustainable Auction Premiums and Delayed Mines Operationalisation:
In some cases, aggressive bidding under the existing auction mechanism
has resulted in high premiums that, combined with royalty and other levies,
affect the economic viability of mining operations. Delays in auctioning and
operationalising lapsed blocks further constrain the availability of key raw
materials such as iron ore. This creates uncertainty for steel producers in
securing long-term supplies and planning capacity expansion.
• Regulatory Bottlenecks in Mining and Industrial Expansion: The delays arise
from the limited validity of Certified Compliance Reports, multiple stages of
scrutiny under Project Screening Committees, and prolonged Stage-I and
Stage-II forest clearance procedures. Delays in identifying compensatory
afforestation land and uncertainty regarding green cover requirements
for brownfield projects further extend project timelines. These bottlenecks
increase project costs, delay capacity creation and reduce investment certainty.
56 A stakeholder knowledge-sharing session was held to gather industry insights on challenges and strategies for
boosting India’s global competitiveness in the metals and ores exports

39Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
• High Cost of Renewable Energy and CBAM Compliance Challenges: The
transition towards lower-carbon steel production is constrained by high
wheeling charges, renewable energy banking of only around 30% against an
industry requirement of 100% banking for night-time consumption, restrictions
on off-site group captive sourcing and high landed costs of renewable power.
Limited access to accredited verification capacity can further increase
compliance costs. These constraints could weaken CBAM preparedness and
reduce the competitiveness of Indian steel exports in the EU market.
• Import Competition in High-Value Materials: Nickel-based super alloy bars
and rods are imported at zero duty despite domestic production capabilities
using advanced processes such as Vacuum Induction Melting (VIM), Electro
Slag Remelting (ESR) and Vacuum Arc Remelting (VAR). This has contributed to
continued import dependence and under-utilisation of domestic investments.
The resulting competitive disadvantage limits the development of India’s
strategic advanced metallurgy ecosystem.
• Import Surges and Gaps in Trade Monitoring: Industry stakeholders
highlighted the need to strengthen the Steel Import Monitoring System
and revive structured consultation mechanisms to identify abnormal import
trends. Concerns were also raised regarding import pressures through existing
FTAs and the possibility of third-country steel entering India after minimal
processing. Such trends can adversely affect domestic capacity utilisation and
discourage investment in specialised steel segments.
• High Logistics Costs and Infrastructure Barriers: Delays in the development
of slurry pipelines and the denial of Input Tax Credit on pipelines located
outside factory premises increase the cost of establishing efficient raw-material
logistics infrastructure. These barriers discourage investment in lower-cost
and environmentally sustainable transport systems, adding to the overall cost
disadvantage faced by the mining and steel sectors.
• Delays in Export-Linked Benefits and Working Capital Blockage: Delays
in EPCG redemptions, issuance of Export Obligation Discharge Certificates
and processing of duty drawback claims can result in blocked working capital
and continued compliance liabilities. For a capital-intensive sector such as
steel, these delays can adversely affect liquidity, technology upgradation and
capacity expansion.
• High Export Finance Costs: Pre-Shipment Credit in Foreign Currency (PCFC)
financing is currently available at spreads of around 2–4% over Secured
Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)/ Euro Interbank Offered Rate (EURIBOR),
translating into financing costs of approximately 7% for USD exports and 5%
for euro exports
57
. Higher financing costs increase the working-capital burden
on exporters and create a cost disadvantage relative to competing economies,
particularly in capital-intensive steel manufacturing.
• Restricted Market Access in Major Export Destinations: Indian steel exports
face a quota of approximately 30,000 tonnes per quarter in the EU, beyond
57 https://www.skydo.com/blog/export-packing-credit

40Trade WatcJB April-June (Q1) FY27
which a 25% tariff applies, with a proposed increase to 50% from 1 July 2026
58
.
Indian steel products also face a 25% tariff in Mexico and a 50% tariff under
US Section 232
59
. In MERCOSUR, Indian steel exports face tariffs ranging from
16–27%
60
, while imports from MERCOSUR reportedly attract only 7.5% duty in
India. These tariff and quota barriers significantly increase the landed cost of
Indian products and constrain export expansion and market diversification.
• Limited Domestic Value Addition in Aerospace and Advanced Materials:
India’s expanding civil aviation market provides an opportunity to develop
domestic capabilities in aerospace-grade alloy steels, stainless steels, super
alloys, aluminium and titanium alloys. However, limited integration of domestic
suppliers into aircraft procurement means that growing aviation demand does
not adequately translate into domestic manufacturing and value addition. This
constrains the development of an integrated aerospace materials ecosystem
and limits opportunities for higher-value exports and technology development.
• Constraints in Critical Mineral Recycling and Secondary Resource Recovery:
India’s critical mineral recycling ecosystem faces challenges related to
fragmented collection systems, limited availability of end-of-life batteries and
e-waste, and inadequate support for scaling advanced recovery technologies.
The export of battery black mass before domestic recovery of contained
minerals further reduces feedstock availability for domestic recyclers. These
constraints limit the development of domestic secondary critical-mineral
supply chains and reinforce import dependence.
11. Way Forward
The strengthening of India’s metals, steel and advanced materials trade performance
will require interventions across the entire value chain, from mineral exploration
and raw material availability to manufacturing, logistics, export competitiveness
and integration into global markets. While India possesses significant mineral
resources and expanding industrial capabilities, high input costs, regulatory delays,
fragmented supply chains and growing external trade barriers continue to constrain
competitiveness. Sustained improvement will therefore require a coordinated strategy
aligning mineral policy, industrial development, trade facilitation, green transition and
strategic capability building. The following priority actions are recommended:
• Mineral Exploration and Raw Material Security
o Strengthen mineral exploration: Develop a supportive ecosystem for junior
exploration companies through improved access to geological data, risk
capital and appropriate fiscal support to expand the domestic resource base.
o Improve iron ore availability: Accelerate the auctioning and operationalisation
of lapsed blocks and introduce predictable auction pipelines to provide greater
certainty for long-term raw material planning.
58 https://www.mondaq.com/india/export-controls-trade-investment-sanctions/1816682/eus-2026-steel-trq-regulation-
from-temporary-safeguards-to-permanent-industrial-policy
59 https://kpmg.com/us/en/taxnewsflash/news/2026/04/united-states-new-rules-calculating-section-232-tariffs-steel-
aluminum-copper.html
60 https://customsai.in/fta/mercosur

41Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
• Regulatory Reforms and Infrastructure Development
o Streamline project clearances: Extend the validity of Certified Compliance
Reports, reduce repetitive scrutiny under multiple approval stages and
simplify forest clearance procedures to accelerate mine operationalisation and
industrial expansion.
o Simplify compensatory afforestation procedures: Develop more efficient
mechanisms for identifying and transferring compensatory afforestation land
to reduce delays in obtaining Stage-I forest clearances.
o Clarify norms for brownfield expansion: Establish clear and consistent criteria
for green cover and other environmental requirements applicable to existing
industrial facilities undertaking capacity expansion.
o Strengthen mineral logistics infrastructure: Fast-track slurry pipeline
projects and review the GST treatment of pipelines located outside factory
premises to reduce logistics costs and encourage investment in efficient raw-
material transportation.
• Green Transition and CBAM Preparedness
o Improve renewable energy access: Establish more uniform renewable energy
open-access norms, increase renewable energy banking, and rationalise
wheeling and cross-subsidy charges for group captive projects.
o Strengthen CBAM compliance infrastructure: Expand access to accredited
verification facilities within India and address concerns regarding default
emission values to reduce compliance costs and improve predictability for
exporters.
• Strengthening Domestic Manufacturing and Trade Safeguards
o Address import dependence in strategic materials: Review the tariff and
quality-control framework for specialised products, including nickel-based
super alloys, where domestic manufacturing capabilities exist.
o Review FTA-related import pressures: Strengthen rules of origin, including
appropriate “melt and pour” requirements, and review tariff concessions
where sustained import growth is affecting domestic capacity utilisation and
investment.
o Consider targeted import management: Explore transparent product-
specific measures, including tariff-rate quotas where appropriate, to address
sustained import surges while ensuring access to essential inputs.
• Export Competitiveness and Market Access
o Reduce export finance costs: Examine measures to narrow the current PCFC
spread of around 2–4% over SOFR/EURIBOR, with the objective of improving
access to more competitive export finance.
o Ensure timely delivery of export-linked benefits: Strengthen digital
processing and adherence to prescribed timelines for EPCG, EODCs and duty
drawback claims to reduce working-capital blockage.

42Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
• Advanced Materials, Aerospace and Critical Mineral Circularity
o Develop an indigenous aerospace ecosystem: Consider a phased and
incentive-based indigenous content framework for civil aviation, beginning
at around 20% domestic content and progressively increasing towards 40%,
covering components, aerospace materials, engineering and related services.
o Strengthen aerospace materials manufacturing: Support domestic
capabilities in aerospace-grade alloy steels, super alloys, aluminium, titanium,
composites, forgings and other specialised materials to increase domestic
value addition and supply-chain resilience.
o Build Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) ecosystem: Greater
localisation of aerospace components and materials can improve parts
availability, reduce maintenance costs and turnaround times, and support
India’s objective of emerging as a globally competitive MRO hub.
o Strengthen critical mineral recycling: Develop organised collection and
traceability systems for batteries and e-waste, promote domestic processing
of battery black mass, and link incentives more closely with actual recovery of
critical minerals.
o Support recycling technology scale-up: Provide targeted support for pilot,
demonstration and first-commercial-scale recovery projects to enable
domestic recycling technologies to move from laboratory-level development
towards commercial deployment.

43Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
C.
POLICY HIGHLIGHTS

44Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
C. Policy Highlights
1. Global Trade–Related Policy Updates
• United States Introduces New Section 301 Tariffs Covering 60 Trading
Partners: On 24 July, 2026, the United States imposed new tariffs of 10%
and 12.5% on imports from 60 trading partners following the conclusion of
investigations under Section 301. The action replaced the earlier temporary
universal tariff framework and applied different duty rates across categories
of economies, with certain products receiving exemptions. The development
marked a further expansion in the use of Section 301 beyond its conventional
application to country specific trade practices
61
. For India United States
Trade Representative (USTR) has imposed an additional 10% ad valorem
duty on imports. The evolving US tariff framework remains significant given
the importance of the US market for Indian merchandise exports, while
also presenting opportunities to enhance the competitiveness and market
positioning of Indian products vis-à-vis other suppliers
62
.
• Global Trade Policy Activity Reaches a New High: The WTO–IMF Trade Policy
Activity Index, updated in July 2026, showed that global trade policy activity
reached a new high during early 2026. Averaged over January–May 2026,
activity was nearly twice its 2024 level and around 25% above the 2025 average,
with restrictive measures accounting for a significant part of the increase.
The development reflects the increasing use of tariffs, import restrictions and
subsidies by economies in pursuit of industrial, strategic and security objectives.
For India, the increasingly active use of trade policy instruments could create
opportunities to enhance market access, strengthen export competitiveness,
and leverage emerging prospects for supply chain diversification
63.
• Trade Defence and Safeguard Actions Continue to Intensify: Discussions
at the WTO Committee on Safeguards in April 2026 reflected ongoing
engagement among members on recent tariff actions, including those
affecting steel products. India, along with other WTO members, continues to
engage constructively to support a predictable and rules based multilateral
trading system and stable global supply chains. The evolving trade policy
landscape also presents opportunities for India to further strengthen the
resilience and competitiveness of its exports, particularly in metals and
manufactured goods
64.
2. India’s Trade Policy Developments
• Government Undertakes Measures to Address Disruptions in Maritime
Trade and Supply Chains: During 2026, the Government strengthened
its review and coordination mechanism to monitor disruptions affecting
international shipping routes, export import cargo movement, port operations,
freight and insurance costs and the continuity of supply chains. Coordinated
61 https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-imposes-forced-labor-duties-60-trading-partners-as-10-us-tariffs-
expire-2026-07-24
62 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2289348&reg=3&lang=1
63 https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/rese_23jul26_463_e.htm
64 https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news26_e/safe_27apr26_380_e.htm

45Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
measures included operational support at major ports, waiver of ground rent
and demurrage charges, evacuation of containers through rail connectivity
and other trade facilitation measures. These interventions helped ensure
seamless cargo movement and minimise disruptions to maritime trade routes.
The measures also supported exporters by easing logistics related pressures
and strengthening the resilience of India’s trade infrastructure
65
.
• DGFT Extends Export Obligation Periods and Undertakes Special Drive
to Unlock Bank Guarantees: As part of measures to support exporters amid
evolving global shipping and supply-chain conditions, the DGFT extended
the export obligation period for eligible Advance Authorisation and EPCG
authorisations until 31 August, 2026. The measure covered 1,017 EPCG and
around 7,400 Advance Authorisations. In addition, a special drive facilitated
discharge of export obligations under 21,370 EPCG and Advance Authorisations,
enabling the release of funds locked in pending bank guarantees. These
measures provided greater operational flexibility and strengthened liquidity
support for exporters navigating external disruptions
66
.
• Temporarily Exempts Customs Duty on Cotton Imports: The Government
temporarily exempted customs duties on cotton imports from 01
st
June to 31
st

October 2026, particularly during the cotton off season, to ensure adequate
availability of cotton for the textile industry. The measure is aimed at supporting
MSMEs, moderating input costs and strengthening the competitiveness of
Indian textiles, while balancing the interests of cotton farmers and maintaining
market stability
67.
3. Commodity Price Trends
Global commodity prices remained elevated during the first quarter of FY’2026–27,
while the sharp rise observed towards the end of the previous fiscal year moderated
during the quarter. The overall commodity price index (2016=100), after reaching 218.8
in March 2026, remained broadly stable in April and May before moderating to 194.6
in June. The subsequent easing, led mainly by energy and metal prices, is expected to
support greater price stability and provide a more favourable environment for trade
and economic activity.
Crude oil prices remained volatile during the quarter. The APSP crude oil index declined
from 241.9 in April to 239.3 in May and further to 195.4 in June, following the sharp
spike recorded in March. Despite the moderation, oil prices remained well above levels
seen during most of FY’2025–26, reflecting continued geopolitical uncertainties and
concerns about energy supply and trade routes. The energy index followed a similar
pattern, declining from 229.4 in April to 198.8 in June.
Metal prices also moderated gradually during the quarter, with the all-metals index
declining from 301.7 in April to 300.8 in May and further to 282.5 in June. The decline
suggests easing supply side pressures and commodity market conditions after the
elevated price levels seen earlier in the year. Precious metal prices also softened, with
the index declining from 371.8 in April to 332.8 in June, although prices remained
elevated compared to the beginning of FY’2025–26.
65 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2292404&lang=1&reg=48
66 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2236414&lang=1&reg=3
67 https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2267011&reg=48&lang=2

46Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
Fig 27: Price indices across key commodity indices
Figure27Price indices across key commodity indices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Oct-25Nov-25Dec-25Jan-26Feb-26Mar-26Apr-26May-26Jun-26Jul-26
All Commodity price index All Metals Index Food index
APSP crude oil($/bbl) Precious Metals Price Index Coal index
Energy index
Source: IMF data
Coal prices, however, remained relatively firm during the quarter. The coal index
increased from 183.6 in April to 192.5 in May and further to 194.8 in June, indicating
continued strength in energy demand and possible supply constraints. Food prices
showed comparatively limited volatility, declining from 139.3 in April to 130.3 in June,
suggesting relatively stable global agricultural market conditions despite continued
weather related and geopolitical risks.
Overall, commodity markets during Q1 FY’2026–27 witnessed a moderation from
the sharp price increases recorded in March 2026, particularly in crude oil, metals
and precious metals. While energy and commodity prices remained at relatively
elevated levels, the correction contributed to improved price stability. Geopolitical
developments and potential supply disruptions remain key factors shaping the global
commodity outlook. (Figure 27).

47Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27
CONTRIBUTORS
Pravakar Sahoo Programme Director, NITI Aayog
Nalina Sofia T Director, NITI Aayog
Jyotika Nagvanshi Deputy Director, NITI Aayog
Mala Parashar Consultant-I, NITI Aayog
Pooja Teotia Consultant-II, NITI Aayog
Kavya Rao Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Salome Sara Philips Consultant-I, NITI Aayog
Kruthi Raj Young Professional, NITI Aayog
NOTES

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51Trade Watch April-June (Q1) FY27

Trade Watch- Quarterly (April- June [Q1] FY27)