Report on India's Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030

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Report on India’s
Renewable Electricity
Roadmap 2030
Toward Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment
NITI Aayog
Government of India February 2015 Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment i
List of Tables and Figures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv
List of Acronyms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .v
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2
Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
The Process. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
Structure of the Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Policy Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
Summary and Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10
Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
1. Bringing RE into the Heart of Indian Electricity Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
1.1. Context. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
1.1.1. Rapid Demand Growth and Chronic Supply Shortages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15
1.1.2. Implications of Importing Fuel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
1.1.3. Environmental Impacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
1.1.4. Water Availability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
1.1.5. Land Availability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
1.1.6. Limited Institutional Coordination. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21
1.2. Analytical Framework for Identifying the Share of RE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24
2. Choosing the Right Support Mechanisms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.1. Existing RE Support Mechanisms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
2.2. Issues With Existing Support Mechanisms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .29
3. Manufacturing, Human Resources, and RD&D. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
3.1. RE Manufacturing Today. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
3.1.1. Manufacturing Challenges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
3.2. Support for Domestic Manufacturing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
3.2.1. Export Promotion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34
3.3. Domestic Industry and International Competition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.3.1. Costs and Benefits of Nurturing Domestic Industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
3.4. Human Resources Across the Value Chain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35
3.5. RE Technology Needs Specific to India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36
3.6. Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37
Table of Contents
Report on India’s
Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030 Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment ii
4. Achieving and Sustaining Investment Volume. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
4.1. The Investment Market. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
4.1.1. Volume Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39
4.2. Investor Types. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40
4.3. Finding Finance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
4.3.1. Cost of Debt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
4.3.2. Broader Market Challenges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41
4.4. Impact of Policy Mechanisms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .42
4.5. Building Volume. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .43
4.6. Public Sector Roles in Financing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44
4.6.1. Direct Financing of RE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45
4.6.2. New Roles for the Indian Public Sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46
4.6.3. International Lending. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .46
4.6.4. Reducing Risks for Private Investors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
4.7. Data Transparency. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
4.8. Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
5. Project Development and Operational Risks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
5.1. Siting and Access. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50
5.1.1. Land Classification Effects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51
5.1.2. Land Acquisition. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .51
5.1.3. Land Costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52
5.1.4. Revenue Lands. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52
5.1.5. Land-Banking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53
5.2. Environmental Aspects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53
5.3. Grid Connection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .54
5.4. Performance Risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55
5.4.1. Resource Risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55
5.4.2. Technology Risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56
5.4.3. Curtailment Risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .56
5.5. Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .57
6. Buying Renewable Electricity. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
6.1. Power Sector Asset Ownership. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
6.2. Trading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
6.3. Unit Commitment Aspects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
6.4. Discoms: The Key Buyers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59
6.4.1. Subsidised Agricultural Consumption. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61
6.4.2. Political Pressures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .62
6.4.3. Erosion of Customer Base. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63
6.4.4. Easing the Burden. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63
6.5. Open Access. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65
6.5.1. How Does OA Work?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65
6.5.2. Distribution Level Issues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65
6.6. Short-Term Trading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66
6.6.1. Potential Benefits for VRE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67
6.7. Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67
7. Planning the Grid. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
7.1. Grid Planning Today. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .69
7.2. Additional Needs of RE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .70
7.2.1. Smoothing Output Through Dispersal of Power Plants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
7.2.2. Complementary RE Technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74
7.3. The Role of Evolved Grid Planning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .74
7.3.1. The Potential Value of Zoning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75
7.3.2. Zoning Practises. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .76
7.3.3. Holistic Thinking in Grid Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .78
7.4. Paying for New Transmission. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .79
7.5. Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .80 Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment iii
8. System Reliability With VRE at Scale. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
8.1. Power System Operation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83
8.2. System Balancing Today. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83
8.3. Additional Challenges With Solar and Wind. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84
8.3.1. Variability. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84
8.3.2. Uncertainty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .85
8.4. Managing Variability and Uncertainty. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86
8.4.1. Visibility of Output. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86
8.4.2. Forecasting Changes in Output. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .88
8.4.3. Forecasting in India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90
8.4.4. Impact of the Banking Mechanism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .90
8.5. Managing Integration With Greater Flexibility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91
8.5.1. Sources of Flexibility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .91
8.5.2. Using Flexible Resources Better. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92
8.5.3. Costing Additional Flexibility Needs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93
8.6. Local System Benefits of RE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94
8.7. Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94
9. Policy Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
9.1. What is Holding RE Back?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
9.2 Core Principles for Overcoming Barriers to RE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95
9.3 Policy Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .96
9.3.1 National RE Law and/or Policy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
9.3.2 Support for Compliance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .97
9.3.3 RE Grid Integration and More Efficient Grid Operation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99
9.3.4 Energy Access and Off-Grid RE. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101
9.4 Summary and Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101
Annex 1: RE Roadmap Initiative Stakeholders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102
Annex 2: International Review. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105
Bibliography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .106 Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment iv
Table ES1 RE Grid Integration and Efficient Grid
Operation Strategies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Table 1 India’s Growth in Capacity, Electrification,
Network, and Consumption (1947-2013) . . . . . . . 16
Table 2 Wind Sector Manufacturers Active in India
(2012)…..p. 36
Table 3 Types of Investor in RE Projects. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Table 4 International Experiences of Barriers to the
Development of Wind Power Projects. . . . . . . . . . . 50
Table 5 Estimation of Wind Capacity Value in India. . . . . . 74
Table 6 Generation Characteristics of Selected
Conventional Technologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
Table 7 RE Grid Integration and Efficient Grid
Operation Strategies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
Figure 1-Intro Financial Support for RE vs.
Coal Import Savings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figure 1 India’s Supply Deficit in Terms of Energy and
Peak Demand (1984-2013). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 2 India’s Coal Consumption and International
Price Trends (FY 08/09 – FY 12/13). . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Figure 3 Global Coal Generation Capacity Additions and
International Coal Prices (1981-2010). . . . . . . . . . . 18
Figure 4 The Water Stress Level of Major River Basins
and the Distribution of TPPs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Figure 5 India: Diminishing Large Hydro Performance. . . . . 21
Figure 6 Land Use Patterns in India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Figure 7 Technology Costs per MWh. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Figure 8 Perceived Advantages of Protected and
Global Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Figure 9 Potential Human Resource Needs across the
Value Chain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Figure 10 Sources of Risk and Their Discussion in
This Report. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Figure 11 India: Annual Investment in New RE Plants
by Technology (2004 – 2013). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Figure 12 Chinese and Indian RE Investment (2004 – 2013). . 44
Figure 13 Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness
Index (RECAI) Criteria. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Figure 14 Government Policies Can Ease Project
Development and Market Risks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Figure 15 Wind Energy Project Development from the
Developer’s Perspective in South Africa. . . . . . . . . . 49
Figure 16 Aspects of Performance Risk Raised by
Stakeholders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Figure 17 Possible Causes of Curtailment Suggested
by Stakeholders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Figure 18 Public Bodies Engaged in the Electricity Market. . . 58
Figure 19 Gap between Discom Revenue and
Expenditure (Rs/kWh) (FY 10/11). . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Figure 20 Electricity Procured (MU/GWh) and
Deficit Remaining (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Figure 21 Range of Possible Financial Pressures on Discoms. . . 61
Figure 22 Shares of Consumption: Agricultural and
Industrial Sectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .61
Figure 23 Contributors to Discom Weakness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Figure 24 Consumer Segment Tariffs as a Percentage of
Average Cost of Supply. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Figure 25 Aggregate Technical and Commercial
Losses in Selected States (FY 08/09 – 10/11). . . . . . 64
Figure 26 Lifting the Agricultural Consumer Burden
from Discoms: One Option. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
Figure 27 Short-term Trading in India: Bilateral and on
Exchanges (FY 08/09 - 12/13). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Figure 28 Grid Design and Development Process
(Simplified). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Figure 29 Global Horizontal Irradiance Map of India. . . . . . . 70
Figure 30 Evolving Capacity Factors of Wind Power
Plants at Different Wind Speeds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
Figure 31 A) Examples of Meteorological Events That
Can Produce Wind Power Ramps Over a 5-Day Period
B) Graphical Representation of Meteorological Events
over a Range of Spatial and Temporal Ranges. . . . . 72
Figure 32 Clear Sky and Synthetic PV Output for (Left) a
Single Site During a Single Monsoon Day and
Dry Season Day; and (Right) All Baseline PV Sites. . 72
Figure 33 Managing Variability: Step One. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Figure 34 Effect of Geographic Spread on
Smoothing of Output. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Figure 35 Monthly Output of Wind and Solar Power
Plants in Germany (2013). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Figure 36 Potential Advantages of Holistic Grid Planning. . . . 75
Figure 37 Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ):
New Lines in Northwest Texas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77
Figure 38 TYNDP 2012: Projects of Pan-European
Significance (2017–2022). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Figure 39 Holistic View of Integration Costs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Figure 40 Average Daily Load Curves in India for
Each Month of the Year (2009). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Figure 41 Seasonal Fluctuations in Demand in
Maharashtra (2009). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Figure 42 Brazil: Sudden Drop in Load, 28 June 2010
(Football World Cup Match). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Figure 43 Managing Variability: Step Two. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Figure 44 Use and Value of Forecasting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Figure 45 Impact of Forecast Aggregation on Accuracy. . . . . . 89
Figure 46 Improvements in Wind Forecast Accuracy
in Spain. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Figure 47 Managing Variability: Step Three. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
List of Tables and Figures Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment v
Acronyms
AD Accelerated Depreciation
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CAPEX Capital Expenditure
CEA Central Electricity Authority
CECRE Control Centre of Renewable Energies [Spain]
CERC Central Electricity Regulatory Commission
CREZ Competitive Renewable Energy Zones
CSS Cross Subsidy Surcharge
CUF Capacity Utilization Factor
DCR Domestic Content Requirement
Discom Distribution Company
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment
FiT Feed-In Tariff
FY Financial Year
GBI Generation-Based Incentive
GDP Gross Domestic Product
Genco Generation Company
GETCO Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation
Limited
GOI Government of India
GW/GWh Gigawatt(s)/Gigawatt Hour(s)
HNW High Net Worth
IEA International Energy Agency
IFC International Finance Corporation
IPP Independent Power Producer
IREDA Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency
ISTS Interstate Transmission System
JNNSM Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission
kWh/kWh Kilowatt(s)/Kilowatt Hour(s)
LAA Land Acquisition Act
LDC Load Dispatch Centre
MoEF Ministry of Environment, Forest and
Climate Change
MoF Ministry of Finance
MoP Ministry of Power
MNRE Ministry of New and Renewable Energy
Mt Million Tonnes
MU Million Units = One GWh
MW/MWh Megawatt(s)/Megawatt Hour(s)
NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change
NEM Net Metering
NHPC National Hydroelectric Power Corporation
Limited
NLDC National Load Dispatch Centre
NMP National Manufacturing Policy
NSM National Solar Mission (same as JNNSM)
NTPC National Thermal Power Corporation Limited
O&M Operation and Maintenance
OA Open Access
PFC Power Finance Corporation, Limited
PGCIL Power Grid Corporation of India, Limited
PJM PJM Interconnection [US]
PM Particulate Matter
POSOCO Power System Operation Corporation, Limited
PPA Power Purchase Agreement
PRI Pancahyati Raj Institutions
PUCT Public Utilities Commission of Texas [US]
PV Photovoltaics
RD&D Research, Development and Deployment
RE Renewable Electricity
REC Renewable Electricity Certificate
RECAI Renewable Energy Country Attractive Index
REMC Renewable Energy Management Centre
RES RE Sources
RGO Renewable Generation Obligation
RPC Regional Power Committee
RPO Renewable Purchase Obligation
SERC State Electricity Regulatory Commission
SEZ Special Economic Zone
STU State Transmission Utility
Transco Intra-state Transmission Company
TW/TWh Terawatt(s)/Terawatt Hour(s)
TYNDP Ten Year Network Development Plan
[European Union]
UC Unit Commitment
UI Unscheduled Interchange
UMPP Ultra-Mega Power Plant
VGF Viability Gap Funding
VRE Variable Renewable Energy Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 4
F
or decades, as demand for power has grown,
India has added large-scale conventional power
resources. Now, with solar and wind power
and other renewable electricity (RE) resources
becoming commercially available in the marketplace,
there are additional choices available to policymakers and
stakeholders concerned with the technical, economic, and
environmental characteristics of a future power system that
keeps pace with economic growth.
One of India’s major advantages today and going forward
is that its RE potential is vast and largely untapped. Recent
estimates indicate that India’s solar potential is greater than
10,000 GW and its wind potential could be higher than
2,000 GW.
To fully take advantage of India’s RE potential over
the next few years, however, will require new initiatives
from central and state governments — beyond policy and
programs currently in place — to support the engagement,
participation, and new behaviors of power sector stake-
holders including RE industry and developers, grid opera-
tors, public and private finance, consumers, and others.
Renewables are different than power technologies of
the past. Most renewables have zero fuel costs but they
are more capital-intensive than conventional fossil power
plants. India’s renewable resources are abundant, but the
output of wind and solar photovoltaic is variable, and
in the case of wind in particular, subject to uncertainty.
To capture the benefits, India would need to raise the
necessary capital, and get comfortable with managing the
variability and uncertainty of renewable energy generation.
The enormous benefits RE brings — zero fuel, electricity
prices free from volatility and external influence, reduced
imports, dramatically reduced pollution and water use
Executive Summary
“We should not get into the mindset that RE is the intruder and
conventional energy is the main player. Why not consider RE to be
main occupants of the ‘house’ and then work out the rest of the system
around RE, essentially, because RE is the future?”
— Former Member (Energy), erstwhile Planning Commission of India
— will not be had without significant effort. NITI Aayog’s
initiative – The India Energy Security Scenarios 2047
(IESS 2047) – would be useful in illustrating the costs and
benefits of adopting high RE targets to meet India’s growing
energy demand.
To help policymakers identify these new approaches, a
stakeholder-driven analysis of the opportunities and barri-
ers to rapid deployment RE was initiated at the request of
the Government of India in November 2013.
The resulting process and its findings have significant
relevance in the current scenario, when the Government
of India has enhanced its aspirations multifold – amending
them from 20 GW of solar power (by 2022) to 100 GW (by
2019) and from an additional 15 GW of wind power (dur-
ing 2012-17) to an additional 40 GW (by 2019).
The Process
Given this backdrop of benefits and challenges, the
Government of India’s erstwhile Planning Commission, in
its role as co-leader of the 21st Century Power Partnership
(21CPP)
i
, initiated the “RE Roadmap Initiative”. It
requested that the Confederation of Indian Industry
(CII), in conjunction with knowledge partners the Shakti
Sustainable Energy Foundation (SSEF) and the Regulatory
Assistance Project (RAP), serve as the Initiative team and
i The 21st Century Power Partnership (21CPP) is a multilateral
effort of the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) that serves as a
platform to advance the large-scale deployment of renewable
energy. While the erstwhile Planning Commission served
as co-leader of the 21CPP on the international platform, CII
served as operating agent to the 21CPP in India. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 5
conduct a stakeholder-driven “roadmap” exercise to answer
the question: “How must the Indian power system evolve
if India chooses to put RE at the core of the future system,
rather than at the periphery?”
A steering committee for this exercise was created, led
by then-Member (Energy) and composed of Secretaries
of Ministry of Power (MoP), Ministry of New and Renew-
able Energy (MNRE), Ministry of Finance (MoF), Ministry
of Environment and Forests (MoEF), Central Electricity
Authority (CEA), Power Grid Corporation of India, Ltd.
(PGCIL), and the Energy Secretaries of Tamil Nadu and
Rajasthan.
The analysis, findings and practical “next-step” policy
recommendations that follow are based, in large part, on
broad and robust open-ended conversations conducted
under the “Chatham House Rule” with over 250 power
sector stakeholders from 13 states, and from central or pan-
India institutions.
ii
The stakeholders included the steering
committee members, chairpersons/members and senior
staff of central and state electricity regulatory commissions,
energy secretaries of states, managing directors of
generation, transmission and distribution companies, grid
operators, power sector planning agencies, grid managers,
civil society, industry and finance, developers, and bilateral
and multilateral institutions.
Initial interviews and small group conversations were
conducted throughout the country during December 2013
through March 2014. Preliminary findings were presented
to the Steering Committee in April 2014, then circulated
and commented upon by close to 100 stakeholders and
domestic and international experts. The draft policy
recommendations drawn from the Roadmap Initiative
process went through an iterative process from August
through October 2014 as the Roadmap Initiative team
solicited feedback from diverse stakeholders and domestic
and international experts, both through correspondence
and in-person.
Structure of the Report
The objective of this document is to capture and synthe-
sise the inputs of stakeholders in the renewables sector —
at national and state levels in India as well as internationally
— as to what should be done differently to drive a dramatic
scale-up of renewable energy, particularly solar photovol-
taic and wind power. Blended with these inputs are a large
number of international experiences. These serve some-
times to contrast Indian experiences with those elsewhere,
and at other times to provide alternative perspectives on
addressing a particular challenge.
The diverse and deep experiences of the 250
stakeholders allowed the Initiative process to delve
into a comprehensive consideration of RE issues and
opportunities. Their responses and observations have
been organized into eight specific themes that focus
on identifying changes in power sector governance,
management, structure, and power systems themselves
that would be prerequisite to the large-scale, cost-efficient,
reliable deployment of renewable electricity.
Chapters 1 and 2 set the scene for the discussion of the
overarching issues that are discussed in depth in Chapters
3 to 8.
Chapter 1 provides the context, including targets for
deployment, and lays out a systematic approach to assessing
the relative benefits, costs, and risks of renewable energy.
Chapter 2 discusses key policy tools currently in place
and visualises how these may evolve as renewable energy
reaches higher penetration levels.
Chapter 3 begins the discussion of specific areas that are
being looked at by stakeholders up and down the country,
beginning with supply chain aspects of renewable energy
deployment, including manufacturing, the adequacy of
human resources, and research and development.
Chapter 4 moves on to an assessment of investment in
renewable energy markets to date, including sources of in-
vestment, private and public sector roles, and how greater
private investment in particular can be stimulated.
Chapter 5 covers an area that is often overlooked in
strategic analysis of this kind: risks at the level of the
individual project, from siting to grid connection, and a
number of performance risks.
Chapter 6 takes the completion of a variable RE power
plant as its point of departure, and asks how a sufficiency
of buyers can best be assured for the electricity generated.
Chapter 7 then considers the transportation of electricity
to the consumer, through the transmission and distribution
networks, and how these may be planned for greatest
efficacy.
ii Under the Chatham House Rule, anonymity is maintained
to encourage the frank exchange of views. As a result, the
250+ stakeholders who participated in the RE Roadmap
Initiative are not named and no comments are attributed to
individuals. However the various institutions, agencies and
companies their perspectives are derived from are listed at
the back of this report. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 6
Chapter 8 discusses system operational aspects: how
the often-cited issues of variability and uncertainty in the
output of wind and solar photovoltaic power plants could
be managed reliably.
Finally, Chapter 9 outlines a small number of specific
near-term steps that the Government of India, state
governments, and stakeholders could take to begin
the power sector retooling process that will accelerate
deployment of RE in India.
Findings
The RE Roadmap Initiative’s broad stakeholder process
held under the Chatham House Rule allowed for frank
and thoughtful conversations about the opportunities and
barriers to RE as seen by diverse policymakers and stake-
holders in India’s power sector. The results were enriched
by consideration of international experience (successes
and setbacks), and by feedback from international experts.
Although there was not complete consensus, there was sig-
nificant agreement on the challenges and obstacles facing a
rapid scale-up of RE in India and the principles that would
be the foundation for any solutions.
Stakeholder interviews and international experience
identified four areas where new policy and programs would
be useful.
There will, of course, be many
specific alternative approaches and
strategies to achieving successful RE
policies. But there was significant
agreement that the five core principles
discussed below must be at the heart of
any of those new efforts. These prin-
ciples were synthesized from the best
thinking of Indian stakeholders and
international experts:
• Treat RE as a resource
of national and strategic
importance
• Mandate RE as a significant
component of the power sector
• Take an integrated approach
to power sector planning,
including generation, transmission, and distribution
• Make buyers indifferent between conventional and
RE resources until grid parity is achieved
• Give small-scale/distributed RE, close to end users,
priority equal to large-scale/centralized RE
The principles described above are the foundation for
the recommendations that follow. Drawn from stakeholder
input and international experience, the paper suggests a
framework for an integrated policy strategy for rapid RE
implementation that complements both the existing and
planned conventional power projects. The framework
includes:
• A new comprehensive national RE law and/or
policy and its components
• Implementation support mechanisms
• Reforms to ensure smooth grid integration of RE
• Energy access and off-grid RE considerations
Policy Recommendations
National RE Law and/or Policy
A comprehensive, transparent, long-term, and definitive
legislative/policy framework for RE should be implemented
by amending existing laws/policies (e.g., address electricity-
related aspects from the Electricity Act) and/or creating a
new laws/policies (e.g., dedicated to renewable energy as
whole). RE could be considered a “resource of national and
strategic importance” as it addresses several fundamental
national objectives such as energy security, reduction of the
trade deficit, enhanced land/water availability for non-ener-
gy purposes (e.g., agriculture), cutting-
edge industrial and RD&D (research,
development and deployment) growth,
increased employment, and others.
Some essential features of a potential
RE policy/legislative framework are
presented below:
Targets
The law/policy should establish
national RE targets that would incor-
porate an appropriate but measurable
metric (e.g., generation, capacity, share
of consumption, etc.) to monitor prog-
ress in achieving the targets. All states
would be equally responsible to meet a
common national uniform target. The
law/policy should include appropriate
“sunset” provisions that would allow regular opportunities
to update the law/policy in light of the evolving set of issues
pertaining to RE. The rationale for setting the targets should
account for the various benefits and costs described above.
Key Findings
The stakeholder interviews and
international experience identified
four areas where new policy and
programs would be useful. These
include the need for:
• A Comprehensive National
Policy Framework for RE
• Willing and Credit-Worthy
Buyers (i.e. Discoms) for RE
• Smoother RE Project
Development Environment
• Updated Grid Planning and
Operation Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 7
Financial Support Required
for Achieving Targets
The law/policy should
clearly identify the source,
level, and distribution
mechanism for financial
support for reducing the
incremental cost of RE
(includes both generation
and integration costs) to the
ultimate buyers as compared
with the already subsidized
fossil fuel-based generation.
Integrated Energy
Resources Planning
Comprehensive and
analytically sophisticated
planning exercises should be
undertaken routinely in order
to assess the benefits and
costs of various aspects of the
electricity sector, including
supply-side resources (e.g.,
coal, hydro, gas, nuclear,
RE), the transmission and
distribution networks and
their operation, and demand-
side resources (e.g., energy
efficiency, demand response, etc.). These planning exercises
should explicitly and systematically account for various
risk factors such as fuel availability, fuel costs, and other
possible benefits and costs.
Programmatic Approach
The new requirements for the entire power system con-
sist of a portfolio of two complementary policy approaches:
• A restructured and enforceable RPO that incorporates
a mandatory national uniform obligation on all bulk
buyers (i.e. discoms and open access consumers).
The RPO mechanism can be structured to allow
all possible generation project developers — e.g.,
pure-RE developers, discoms, consumers, etc. — to
participate in the growth of RE capacity. As the cost of
RE continues to fall, the RPO mechanism allows for
an increasing share of RE in future consumption.
• A mandatory net metering (NEM)/feed-in tariff (FiT)
for behind-the-meter RE generation (e.g. rooftop
solar photovoltaic). This
requirement would apply to all
distribution service providers.
Electricity generated under
the NEM/FiT would count
toward the RPO. The NEM/
FiT mechanism encourages the
addition of RE generation close
to the point of use thereby
minimizing the costs of
transmission and distribution
and associated losses.
Support Mechanisms for
Compliance and
Timely Implementation
With strong policy/leg-
islation in place, the focus
on implementation support
will be even more desirable.
The government, at both the
central and state levels, will
need to support compliance
with mandatory requirements
regarding RE on the power
system through the following
functions. Preferred ap-
proaches are described below;
alternatives are described in
the full document.
“One-Stop Shop” for Standardized Contracting:
Streamlining the contracting process (e.g., standardization
of contracts), and making available relevant information
(e.g., that could lead to a more transparent price discovery
process) in a centralized manner could significantly reduce
contracting-related transaction costs and project risks. This
could be achieved by establishing a new CERC-regulated
intermediary institution that centrally procures RE from
developers at an auction-price and sells to bulk buyers.
Financial Support and Disbursal Mechanism: A
uniform, simple financial support and disbursal mecha-
nism targeted to buyers that is transparently designed and
provides certainty over a reasonable period of time could
significantly help in expediting RE growth. The financial
support could be disbursed through the new Intermedi-
ary Institution — described previously — that ensures that
bulk buyers are indifferent between new RE and new fossil
fuel-based generation.
Key Policy Recommendations
National RE Law and/or Policy
Establish targets
Identify financial support required for achieving
targets
Undertake integrated energy resources planning
Take a programmatic approach
• A restructured and enforceable RPO
• A mandatory net metering (NEM)/feed-in
tariff (FiT)
Support Mechanisms for Compliance
and Timely Implementation
“One-Stop Shop” for standardized contracting
Financial support and disbursal mechanism
Streamlined project development
Low-cost financing
RE Grid Integration and
More Efficient Grid Operation
Upgrade grid technology
Upgrade grid operation protocols
• Grid Codes
• 5-minute Scheduling and Dispatch
Expand balancing areas
Promote flexible demand and supply resources Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 8
Streamlined Project Development: One of the major
constraints on rapid RE development is the lengthy and
costly project development process that includes invest-
ment-grade RE resource assessments, access to land (either
acquisition or leasing), supporting infrastructure develop-
ment (roads, water, transmission interconnections, etc.),
and so on. A newly formed states-center committee should
lead the facilitation process to reduce soft costs in project
development (e.g., siting, permitting, supporting infrastruc -
ture) with technical and logistical support from the Inter-
mediary Institution described above. This is largely aimed
at de-risking the sector and fast-tracking RE deployment.
Low-cost Financing: RE technologies, unlike fossil-
based energy technologies, have high capital costs but very
low operating costs spread over 25-30 years. Thus, the cost
of finance (currently ranging from 12–14% in India) forms
a significant component of the power tariff from these
sources. Buying down the rate of interest for RE projects
would reduce tariffs and hence scale up demand for RE.
The cost of finance in any country is typically driven by
multiple factors and hence, it is neither desirable nor pos-
sible to make interventions in financial markets. The inter-
ventions thus have to be sector (RE) specific. Further, it is
desirable to reduce cost of capital at multiple stages viz:
Stage 1: Reduce the risk perception of the sector by de-
risking and hence manage/reduce investors’ return
expectations (both debt and equity).
Stage 2: Increase the quantum of money available and
reduce the cost of access to such money
Stage 3: An existing central-government entity (e.g.
IREDA, PFC) could pool various sources of funds
including commercial (banks, FIs, MDBs’ lines of
credits, etc.) and non-commercial (National Clean
Energy Fund {NCEF}, grants, subsidies, Corporate
Social Responsibility money, etc.) capital from
domestic as well as international sources. This pool
of funds could be administered and managed to
lend debt (and even part equity, if possible) at lower
interest rates.
RE Grid Integration and More Efficient
Grid Operation
Finally, in addition to strong policy/legislation and sup-
portive deployment environment, grid interconnection
and integration of RE is equally critical. Technically, RE is
typically described as an intermittent source of electricity.
Intermittency consists of two distinct aspects:
• “Predictability/Uncertainty” refers to the lack of
accurate knowledge about future RE generation
(e.g. sudden drop in wind power), which is not
very different from fossil fuel- based generation/
transmission systems (e.g. an unforeseen failure of a
fossil-based generator or a transmission line).
• “Variability” is the known natural variation in RE
generation (e.g., wind peaking during monsoon and
reduced availability in other seasons), just as exists on
the demand side currently (e.g., low demand at mid-
night and high demand during late afternoon).
Internationally — where RE accounts for increasingly
large shares of power system generation — various changes
to grid design, technology, and its operation have been
implemented that allow successful grid integration, i.e.
minimizing and/or managing the variability and uncertainty
aspects of RE. Many of these strategies are inherently useful
for improving the overall efficiency of grid operations and
reducing overall costs to consumers whether RE accounts
for a large (more than 25%) share of the generation mix or
not. Some of these changes are one-time changes while oth-
ers would evolve over time as load shapes and the resource
mix continue to change. These strategies are summarized
in Table 1 below. The rest of this section describes these
strategies in more detail.
These strategies can be classified into following sub-
categories, in roughly ascending order in terms of cost per
kWh.
• Upgrade grid technology: System operators at all
levels (i.e. state, regional and national) should have
Table ES1
RE Grid Integration and Efficient
Grid Operation Strategies
One-time
Upgrade grid
technology Minimize Manage
Upgrade grid
operation protocols Minimize Manage
Expand
“Balancing Areas” Minimize Minimize and manage
Upgrade grid
planning practices Minimize Minimize
Ongoing
Balancing resources –
estimation, procurement,
dispatch Manage Manage
Strategy Impact on
Uncertainty
Impact on
Variability Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 9
visibility of the grid status in neighboring balancing
areas and also the ability to easily coordinate with
them. Most of the transmission companies (i.e. central
and state transmission utilities) and Load Dispatch
Centers (LDCs) (i.e. POSOCO and State LDCs) have
initiated grid technology upgrades in recent times.
These initiatives need to be significantly ramped
up to deploy sensors for generating real-time high
geographic resolution data on grid conditions. These
data generation sensors need to be coupled with
sophisticated analytical engines that provide the
necessary information for grid operations. Centralized
RE forecasting mechanisms need to be tightly
integrated with system operations. Lastly, advanced
decision-making and control systems need to be
implemented that enable system operators to respond
significantly faster to changed grid conditions.
• Upgrade grid operation protocols: Various aspects of
system operations need to be updated. These include
but are not limited to:
• Grid Codes: System operators around the world
– especially those encountering a high share
of RE on their grid – are continually updating
their grid codes to ensure that RE additions do
not affect the grid adversely, and to explicitly
acknowledge attributes unique to RE generators
and, consequently, require appropriate capabilities
• Scheduling and Dispatch: Through both practice
and theory, it has become evident that grids
that are operated in a manner where scheduling
and dispatch are implemented over short time
durations (e.g., as low as five minutes) have
significantly lower overall costs to consumers as the
need for ancillary resources decreases. Currently,
in India, scheduling occurs on a day-ahead basis
while dispatch occurs on a 15-minute basis. System
operations technologies and protocols need to be
updated to enable five-minute scheduling and
dispatch of all resources connected to the grid and
automated incorporation of RE forecasts. This will
also lower ancillary service requirements.
• Expand balancing areas: It has been seen globally
that larger balancing areas (or the ability to coordinate
among balancing areas) have significantly lowered
the overall cost to consumers as ancillary services
requirements are reduced substantially. Currently,
balancing areas in India — specifically, states —
neither have the visibility of their neighbors’ grid
condition nor the ability to coordinate with them.
A single national-level load dispatch center that is
nonprofit, independent, and regulated by CERC is
sufficient for managing the entire national grid.
• Promote flexible demand and supply resources:
Power systems, especially those with a high share
of RE, require access to sufficient flexible resources
(e.g., demand response, gas turbines, hydroelectricity,
etc.) to ensure continued stability of the grid at each
moment. Currently, there are no mechanisms in India
to ascertain the amount of balancing resources needed
and how these can be procured and dispatched. Grid
simulations that are used to identify resource pools
(both built and un-built), specifically for providing
various types of flexible resources including ancillary
services, should be conducted routinely. Procurement
mechanisms need to be implemented to ensure these
resources are connected for use in assuring grid
stability. Finally, mechanisms for fair price discovery
and compensation of flexible resource providers
(e.g. ancillary services) need to be established.
The relevant LDC should be made responsible for
procuring ancillary services to ensure grid stability.
The procurement process should be similar to the
usual competitive bidding process used by discoms
for procuring energy. The compensation could be
cost-plus as approved by the relevant regulatory
commission and paid by all the buyers to the LDC.
Energy Access and Off-Grid RE
One-third of India’s population does not have access to
electricity. Most of the discoms are struggling to provide the
minimum lifeline supply of one unit per household per day
to the rural areas.
The scope of this RE Roadmap Initiative did not include
an extensive consideration of the challenges of energy ac-
cess or off-grid RE generation dynamics. However, stake-
holders concerned with these issues indicated that RE
sources could rapidly bridge India’s energy access challenge
in a cost-effective manner. RE could also accelerate achieve-
ment of India’s universal service obligation, a mandate
outlined in the Electricity Act 2003.
Some policy approaches to these ends were put forward
during this Roadmap Initiative, although there was general
agreement that these issues require their own in-depth
stakeholder process.
For the record, these are the basic energy access and
off-grid RE concepts that were suggested. In addition to Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 10
the current grid extension programs of the Government of
India, which are time- and resource-intensive, state utilities
(and state governments) should be actively engaged and
held responsible for:
• Immediately providing stand-alone off-grid systems
in remote rural areas for home lighting and running
other basic appliances. Over time, these systems could
play the same role as that of rooftop systems in urban
areas.
• In parallel, developing district and block-level plans
for providing electricity through deployment of
micro-grids or mini-grids using RE resources.
The creation and sustenance of the proposed systems
would require new business models and private sector
participation. Enabling policy and regulatory frameworks
should be created at the central as well as state levels. The
business models, policies and regulations thus formulated
must allow for integration of these stand-alone and/or mini-
grid systems with the larger grid system once the distribu-
tion grid reaches the inaccessible areas.
Summary and Conclusion
“…Why not consider RE to be main occupants of the
“house” and then work out the rest of the system around
RE, essentially, because RE is the future?”
This was and remains the key and critical question. For
a hundred years, conventional fossil-fueled power plants
were at the core of power systems around the world.
Those systems had particular engineering and technical
characteristics, and, for decades, operating and governance
institutions have been created, designed, and operated to
support a system with those characteristics.
But renewables are different. For India to capture the
benefits of renewables as “the main occupant of the house”
will require the rethinking and reengineering of institu-
tions, the redefinition of policies, the re-tuning of power
grids and systems, and the replacement of old habits with
new ones.
A rethink is unavoidable: renewables are different from
the power technologies of the past. The enormous benefits
they bring — zero fuel, electricity prices free from volatility
and external influence, reduced imports, dramatically
reduced pollution and water use — will not be had without
significant effort.
Most renewables have zero fuel costs but they are more
capital-intensive than conventional fossil power plants.
India’s renewable resources are abundant, but the output
of wind and solar photovoltaic is variable, and in the case
of wind in particular, subject to uncertainty. To capture the
benefits, India would need to raise the necessary capital,
and to get comfortable with managing the variability and
uncertainty of renewable energy generation.
The policy framework summarized above and described
in Chapter 9 would facilitate that rethinking; it was based
on extensive inputs from stakeholders and international
experience and specifically designed to overcome the
barriers to success and meet the renewables challenge.
To that end, then, both the purpose and the best use of
this RE Roadmap Initiative report will be to assist policy-
makers and stakeholders to grasp what is at stake, and what
needs to be done to make a successful choice in favor of
renewables at scale. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 11
Introduction
T
oday, India’s 260 GW of installed electric
generating capacity is significantly higher than its
nearly 140 GW of peak demand. In fact, India’s
coal generation capacity alone is higher than the
country’s peak demand. And yet, paradoxically, shortages
and blackouts are endemic.
The reality is that many of India’s shortages and black-
outs are the result of insufficient fuel availability and high
costs. Conventional coal-fired power plants constituted a
major share of the new capacity built between 2005 and
2014. Despite estimates that India has huge reserves of
coal, the country’s ability to mine that coal and move it
around the country is constrained. Further, unlike domestic
coal, the price of imported coal is unregulated; its price is
set in the international market which can be quite volatile.
Imported coal in the recent past has been significantly more
expensive than Indian coal. Distribution companies (dis-
coms) that buy electricity from plants fired with imported
coal face significant and unpredictable upward pressure on
tariffs. Some utilities have tried to avoid these high costs
by simply not buying imported coal or power fueled by
imported coal, even when the result is local shortages and
rolling blackouts.
For decades, as demand for power has grown, India has
added large-scale conventional power resources. Now, how-
ever, with solar and wind power becoming commercially
available in the marketplace, there are additional choices
available to policymakers and stakeholders concerned with
the technical, economic, and environmental characteristics
of a future power system that keeps pace with economic
growth.
One of India’s major advantages today and going forward
is that its RE potential is vast and largely untapped. Recent
estimates show that India’s solar potential is greater than
10,000 GW and its wind potential could be higher than
2,000 GW.
The truly good news from a policymaker and
stakeholder perspective is that the costs of generating RE
have fallen steeply in the past decade. Within a few years,
it is likely that subsidies for RE will no longer be necessary
as it will be available at the same or lower cost than power
from the more traditional fossil fuel-based plants. In fact, in
India today:
• new wind projects at the point of generation are
cheaper than the comparable costs of power from new
imported coal-based projects;
• solar photovoltaic generation costs are cheaper than
the cost of natural gas-based generation;
• roof-top solar photovoltaic systems costs is cheaper
than the cost of existing tariffs for large commercial
and industrial (C&I) consumers and even high-use
residential consumers in some states; and
• new rooftop solar costs are already significantly lower
than the cost of diesel back-up generators and battery-
inverter systems used by many consumers.
As renewable technology continues to improve and the
costs continue to fall, forecasters worldwide believe that
these positive trends for RE are likely to continue.
Another attribute of RE is, unlike conventional fossil-
based power plants which take from six to ten years to
be operational, RE generation can be built quickly – thus
matching supply and demand quickly, and simultaneously
reducing the risks to buyers and sellers. In addition,
international research has indicated that the cost of
integrating and managing the intermittency that comes
with RE generation – depending on the system size and its
composition – can range from negligible to moderate.
Under any scenario, billions of rupees’ worth of new
power plants and new transmission lines will be built by
2030. This new infrastructure should be built with a high
RE generation mix in mind. Any new investment in new
infrastructure, be it new generation or transmission, should
accommodate a high RE generation mix. New generation
should be from flexible resources that can complement RE’s
availability and transmission will have to be designed to
allow not only for the transfer of power from RE-rich areas
to RE-poor areas, but also for more cost-effective system
balancing. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 12
Figure 1-Intro
Financial Support for RE vs. Coal Import Savings
Savings based upon a coal price of Rs. 4200/tonne
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Crore Rs.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Savings from Reduced Coal Imports:
All RE Scenario
Onshore Wind and Solar PV Scenario
Annual National Financial Support Required:
All RE
Onshore Wind and Solar PV
1 http://planningcommission.gov.in/plans/planrel/12thplan/
pdf/12fyp_vol2.pdf; pages 133 and 160
2 Assuming imported coal price to be at Rs. 4200/tonne
3 Uncertainty in RE generation is, typically, reduced
significantly through implementation of appropriate
forecasting techniques. The impact of residual uncertainty
and variability in RE generation is addressed through a
portfolio of strategies targeted to the design and operation of
the power system.
However, from a broad public policy perspective, the
major benefit of a more rapid transition to RE lies perhaps
less in the direct consumer impact and the impact on the
power system itself. Dwarfing those will be the positive
effect on India’s macroeconomic circumstances as tapping
into abundant indigenous renewable resources avoids rev-
enue outflows for expensive imported fuels. At the current
time – without innovative policy changes – India is facing
a rapidly rising and volatile imported coal bill far into the
future. As of 2013, India’s erstwhile Planning Commission
forecasts that Indian coal imports for electricity generation
are expected to rise from 90 million tons in 2011-2012
to 250 million tons of coal in 2022,
1
draining about Rs.
1,05,000 crores (Cr.) from the Indian economy.
2

Reaching 20% RE (by energy) by 2022 will dramatically
reduce the coal import bill in 2022. According to prelimi-
nary analysis carried out by the Roadmap Initiative team,
for as little as Rs. 7,000 crores in 2022, electricity buyers in
all states can be made indifferent between RE and conven-
tional sources. Juxtaposed with that investment, the coal
import bill in 2022 will fall by more than Rs. 60,000 Cr.
See Figure 1, below.
In order to realize RE benefits, a successful RE strategy
for India will need to be integrated with and complemen-
tary to existing and planned fossil-based power projects.
Consequently, it will require new thinking, a probable reen-
gineering of institutions, the redefinition of policies, the re-
tuning of power systems, and the replacement of old habits
with new ones. A new way of thinking is unavoidable: RE
is different from the power generation technologies of the
past (e.g. thermal, hydro, etc.). Current infrastructure and
policies are set up to fit the requirements of fossil energy
resources, not RE, and a system that utilizes increasing
amounts of RE can only be achieved by significant efforts
and retooling of the power system.
The above benefits come with certain challenges. RE
is relatively more capital-intensive than conventional
power plants. The output of wind and solar photovoltaic Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 13
generation is variable and uncertain.
3
Thus, to capture the
benefits, India would need to make available the necessary
capital, and get comfortable with managing the variability
and uncertainty of RE generation in conjunction with the
existing and planned fossil fuel-based and large power
plants.
How to begin that process of retooling is the purpose of
this exercise and document.
Roadmap Process
It was against this backdrop of benefits and challenges
that the Government of India’s erstwhile Planning
Commission, in November 2013, requested that the
Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) in conjunction with
the Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation (SSEF) and the
Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP), conduct a stakeholder-
driven “roadmap” exercise to answer the question: “How
must the Indian power system evolve if India chooses to
put RE at the core of the future system, rather than at the
periphery?” A steering committee for the exercise was
created, led by then-Member (Energy) and composed of
Secretaries of Ministry of Power (MoP), Ministry of New
and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Ministry of Finance (MoF),
Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), Central
Electricity Authority (CEA), Power Grid Corporation of
India, Ltd. (PGCIL), and the Energy Secretaries of Tamil
Nadu and Rajasthan.
Both the purpose and the challenge of this road map
exercise have been to assist policymakers and stakeholders
to grasp what is at stake, and what they would need to do
in order to make a choice in favor of RE at scale, successful.
The analysis and practical “next-step” policy recom-
mendations that follow are based, in large part, on broad
and robust open-ended conversations conducted under
the “Chatham House Rule” with over 250 power sector
stakeholders from 13 states. The stakeholders included the
steering committee members, chairpersons/members and
senior staff of central and state electricity regulatory com-
missions, energy secretaries of states, managing directors of
generation, transmission and distribution companies, grid
operators, power sector planning agencies, grid managers,
civil society, industry and finance, developers, and bilateral
and multilateral institutions.
Initial interviews and small group conversations were
conducted throughout the country during December 2013
through March 2014. Preliminary findings were presented
to the Steering Committee in April 2014, then circulated
and commented upon by close to 100 stakeholders and
domestic and international experts. The draft policy
recommendations drawn from the Roadmap Initiative
process went through an iterative process from August
through October 2014 as the Roadmap Initiative team
solicited feedback from diverse stakeholders and domestic
and international experts, both through correspondence
and in-person.
Outline of Report
The report and its findings find much more relevance in
a scenario when the Government of India has enhanced its
aspirations multifold – from 20 GW of solar power
(by 2022) to 100 GW (by 2019) and from an additional
15 GW of wind power (during 2012-17) to an additional
40 GW (by 2019).
In the following chapters, stakeholder responses have
been organized into eight detailed and specific themes that
focus on identifying changes in power sector governance,
management, structure and power systems that would
be prerequisite to the large-scale, cost-efficient, reliable
deployment of RE. Where appropriate, examples of inter -
national experience (successful and otherwise) relevant to
the issues raised have been added. In the final chapter, the
intent is to outline a small number of specific near-term
steps that the Government of India, state governments and
stakeholders could take to begin the power sector retooling
process described in the background document.
Chapters 1 and 2 set the scene for the discussion of the
overarching issues that are discussed in depth in Chapters
3 to 8. Chapter 1 provides the context, including targets for
deployment, and lays out a systematic approach to assess-
ing the relative benefits, costs, and risks of renewable en-
ergy. Chapter 2 discusses key policy tools currently in place
and visualises how these may evolve as renewable energy
reaches higher penetration levels.
Chapter 3 begins the discussion of specific areas that
are being looked at by stakeholders up around the country,
beginning with supply chain aspects of renewable energy
deployment, including manufacturing, the adequacy of hu-
man resources, and research and development.
Chapter 4 moves on to an assessment of investment in
renewable energy markets to date, including sources of in-
vestment, private and public sector roles, and how greater
private investment in particular can be stimulated.
Chapter 5 covers an area that is often overlooked in stra-
tegic analysis of this kind: risks at the level of the individual Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 14
project, from siting to grid connection, and a number of
performance risks.
Chapter 6 takes the completion of a variable RE power
plant as its point of departure, and asks how a sufficiency
of buyers can best be assured for the electricity generated.
Chapter 7 then considers the transportation of electricity
to the consumer, through the transmission and distribu-
tion networks, and how these may be planned for greatest
efficacy.
Chapter 8 discusses system operational aspects: how
the often-cited issues of variability and uncertainty in the
output of wind and solar photovoltaic power plants could
be managed reliably.
Finally, Chapter 9 outlines a small number of specific
near-term steps that the Government of India, state gov-
ernments and stakeholders could take to begin the power
sector retooling process that will accelerate deployment of
RE in India.
Each chapter draws attention to power system aspects
that are sometimes unique to the Indian case, sometimes
ubiquitous, but always germane when considering the
large-scale deployment of variable renewable electricity
technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaic. They
then proceed to discuss issues that are particularly prob-
lematic, and options for their resolution as proposed by
stakeholders or suggested by international experiences.
The chapters are rounded off with a short summary of key
issues.
While this report makes an effort to suggest steps
for issue resolution, we must specify one thing that has
become clear during this process: there is no single answer
on which all agree. All over the globe, policymakers,
power sector stakeholders and participants are struggling
to re-invent and re-imagine their institutions and their
behaviors to adapt to the unique technical and economic
characteristics of renewable resources. Progress is being
made as increasingly large amounts of RE are coming on
line in China, Europe, and North and South America. Since
no one is developing RE the exact same way, there are many
examples to consider and lessons to be learned. India will
develop a portfolio of policies and strategies that work in
the India context.
What is also clear is that the choice to make RE a
significant component of India’s evolving power system will
require new, domestically-driven solutions, informed by
both Indian and international experience.
The report is written for the informed policymaker and
sector stakeholder. Technology and technical aspects of all
kinds are discussed using non-technical language wherever
possible, to ensure accessibility for a wider audience. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 15
1 18th Electric Power Survey.
2 See: http://www.gbpn.org/sites/default/files/08.India_
TechnicalReport_0.pdf.
1. Bringing RE into the Heart of
Indian Electricity Systems
“We should not get into the mindset that RE is the intruder and
conventional energy is the main player. Why not consider RE to
be main occupants of the “house” and then work out the rest of
the system around RE, essentially, because RE is the future?”
— Former Member (Energy),
India’s erstwhile Planning Commission
T
here is resounding consensus among all the
stakeholders that renewable electricity (RE) will
play a major role in the future of the Indian
electricity system. However, it is less clear what
that will mean in terms of:
• RE share of electricity, and when it will be achieved;
• The cost to society as a whole, and how those costs
should be allocated; and
• What the key barriers are to accelerating RE
deployment, and the solutions to them.
1.1. Context
The key difference between conventional generation
(e.g., coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydro) and a system based
on renewable energy (e.g., wind, solar) is the need for
raw fuel that in turn necessitates a complex, reliable, and
expensive upstream infrastructure for its production and
transportation to generator site. In order for it to function,
the physical, economic, and institutional aspects of not only
the power grid, but of this entire upstream infrastructure
as well, must work in sync. In some ways, the impact of
limitations and/or failures of upstream infrastructure can be
compared in importance to the complexities of managing
variable RE, and yet are usually not considered in the
context of power sector planning.
1.1.1. Rapid Demand Growth and Chronic
Supply Shortages
India’s present peak demand for electricity is 135 GW
and is expected to grow to about 200 GW by the end of
financial year (FY) 2016/17, that is, the end of the 12th
Plan period, and to 283 GW by FY 2021/22 (the end of
the 13th Plan period).
1
The Compound Annual Growth
Rate (CAGR) underlying the growth in electricity require-
ment – both energy and peak demand – is approximately
seven percent over the period 2016/17 to 2031/32. For
the sake of comparison, this rate of growth is three to four
times greater or more than currently observed and expected
in developed countries, and approximately on par other
developing economies.
This rapid growth is driven by both increasing
consumption by customers who are connected to the
electricity grid and the number of customers who are
likely to get connected to the grid in the near future.
The increased consumption is primarily a consequence
of increasing population and economic growth that is
expected to occur.
Not only is the demand for electricity growing, the load
profile is also changing as greater income leads to increased
purchases of appliances – especially for space cooling – that
has a significantly different load profile from historically
common loads such as lighting.
2
Other changing factors
such as the composition of economic activities (e.g., shift
from industrial to services), hydrology (e.g., falling ground-
water tables coupled with droughts), and others, also have
significant implications for the load profile. In Table 1 the
growth of the electricity system – both in terms of supply
and demand – are shown for each five-year plan period.
Energy access and unmet demand continue to handicap
fundamentally India’s goals for economic growth,
improvement of living standards, and the achievement of
other social goals (e.g., education), especially in the rural
areas. There is a huge opportunity cost because of the lag
before the supply-demand gap is bridged conclusively. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 16
3 GOI 12th Five Year Plan, Volume II, Economic Sectors, p 131.
Consumer response to this lack of access and unreliability
of electricity supply ranges from expensive investments in
backup supply (e.g., batteries and diesel generators) to the
foregoing of productivity and a better quality of life.
The centralised large-scale power generation paradigm
has not met the full needs of Indian society, and stakehold-
ers indicated that the prospects of its doing so in the near
future are dim. In sharp contrast, the modularity, scalability,
and greater speed of deployment of RE technologies relative
to the conventional generation may have the potential to
address this supply-demand gap in a much shorter time
frame.
According to the Statistical Year Book 2014, the over-
all rate of electrification in 2011 was 67 percent, with
93 percent of urban and 55 percent of rural households
having access to electricity. The level of electrification of
households varies significantly across various states in
urban areas (80 percent in Uttar Pradesh to 99 percent in
Sikkim), but especially in rural areas (10 percent in Bihar
and 23 percent in Uttar Pradesh to 97 percent in Himachal
Pradesh).
Furthermore, even if households have access (i.e., there
is a connection with the grid), the availability of power is
significantly limited to as low as only a few hours during
the day. The Government of India (GOI) reports low per
capita consumption (eight units/month) for as much as 67
percent of the rural households that are electrified, which
indicates that a significant amount of demand is unmet
owing to limited availability and poor power quality.
3
The central government continues to provide financial
support (e.g., APDRP, R-APDRP, RGGVY) alongside ongoing
state government-led programmes for extending the grid to
all households. However, stakeholders questioned whether,
even when the grid is extended to all households, there
would be sufficient energy available for all those connected
households.
The recent rapid decrease in the costs of modular energy
generation technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV)
Table 1
India’s Growth in Capacity, Electrification, Network, and Consumption (1947-2013)
Intalled
Capacity
(MW)
As On/During Financial Year Ending With
No. of Villages
Electrified
Length of
T & D Lines
(Ckt. kms.)
Per Capita
Consumption
(kWh/year)
31.12.1947 1,362 N/A 23,238 16.3
31.12.1950 1,713 3,061 29,271 18.2
13.03.1956 (End of the 1st Plan) 2,886 7,294 85,427 30.9
31.03.1961 (End of the 2nd Plan) 4,653 21,754 157,887 45.9
31.03.1966 (End of the 3rd Plan) 9,027 45,148 541,704 73.9
31.03.1969 (End of the 3 Annual Plans) 12,957 73,739 886,301 97.9
31.03.1974 (End of the 4th Plan) 16,664 156,729 1,546,097 126.2
31.03.1979 (End of the 5th Plan) 26,680 232,770 2,145,919 171.6
31.03.1980 (End of the 2 Annual Plans) 28,448 249,799 2,351,609 172.4
31.03.1985 (End of the 6th Plan) 42,585 370,332 3,211,956 228.7
31.03.1990 (End of the 7th Plan) 63,636 470,838 4,407,501 329.2
31.03.1992 (End of the 2 Annual Plans) 69,065 487,170 4,574,200 347.5
31.03.1997 (End of the 8th Plan) 85,795 498,836 5,141,413 464.6
31.03.2002 (End of the 9th Plan) 105,046 512,153 6,030,148 559.2
31.03.2007 (End of the 10th Plan) 132,329 482,864 6,939,894 671.9
31.03.2012 (End of the 11th Plan) 199,877 556,633 8,726,092 883.6
31.03.2013 (End of the 1st yr. of 12th Plan) 223,344 593,732 8,970,112 917.2
Source: Central Electricity Authority Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 17
as compared with more expensive conventional diesel
generators has allowed entrepreneurs (such as Mera Gao
Power, SunEdison, Azure, and so on) to explore off-grid
distributed micro-grid electricity supply models for rural
areas, in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, for example.
Electricity supply has fallen short of consumer demand
chronically, both in terms of energy and peak power needs.
Figure 1 shows the shortage situation over the last three
decades. Furthermore, stakeholders have pointed out that,
given highly unreliable supply to a large portion of the
population, peak demand estimates may underestimate
significantly the true level; consumers facing highly unreli-
able supply are unlikely to have invested in appliances even
if they can afford them.
The power shortage problems arise not only from the
electricity generation aspect of the supply system but also
from the upstream infrastructure that was described earlier.
Official reports and stakeholders both indicated reduced
availability of coal (average plant load factor for coal was 68
percent in 2013) and hydro, and lack of natural gas as the
key reasons behind the lower generation.
Some of these factors are being addressed, with mixed
results. Constraints on domestic production of fuel such
as coal and natural gas has led to increases in imports,
especially of coal. However coal-fired power has still been
constrained by the various circumstances associated with
imported fuel (e.g., high prices relative to domestic sources,
trade deficit, currency fluctuations, import infrastructure).
Other factors such as a lack of transmission capacity among
the regions may also have reduced the ability of the existing
fleet to meet demand. Recently new transmission capacity
has been added, which has enabled the synchronisation of
the southern region with the rest of the country in a single
unified grid. Other factors have still not been resolved to
the satisfaction of relevant stakeholders (e.g., affordably
priced domestic natural gas).
In contrast, RE capacity additions have demonstrated
relatively short lead times in construction, and once con-
structed do not rely on upstream supply of fuel, water, and
so on. Indeed, for these reasons perhaps, several major
power plant developers (e.g., Tata, Reliance, Coal India
Ltd., NTPC) – both government- and privately owned –
have begun to diversify toward RE projects, and have even
canceled some planned investments in coal generation.
1.1.2. Implications of Importing Fuel
Increasing domestic energy resources, including those
with no fuel costs (e.g., RE), is a powerful concept that
resonated with stakeholders. Dependence on imported coal
exposes India to risks of volatile prices, foreign exchange
rate risks, competition with other importers, and the do-
mestic needs of the source countries.
The lag in domestic production has resulted from a
variety of factors: inefficient production of coal from exist-
ing mines, delays and major issues in the allocation of coal
blocks to mine developers, delays in land acquisition, and
transport constraints (e.g.,
lack of both railway tracks
and sufficient rolling stock).
Domestic coal produc-
tion (with a CAGR of 4.6
percent over FY 00/01 to
FY 11/12) has not been able
to keep pace with demand
(CAGR of 6.4 percent over
2002 to 2013) or genera-
tion (CAGR of 5.3 percent
over FY 00/01 to FY 11/12).
India imported 38 million
tonnes (Mt) of coal in 2007,
rising to 105 Mt in 2012,
and it is projected to rise to
185 Mt by the end of the
12th Plan in 2017.
In 2013 alone, the total
additional coal import bill
25
20
15
10
5
0
1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1987-88 1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Figure 1
India’s Supply Deficit in Terms of Energy and Peak Demand
(1984-2013)
Energy Deficit %
Peak Deficit %
Source: CEA Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 18
4 See: http://data.worldbank.org/topic/infrastructure.
was in excess of USD 10 billion. International coal prices
are a function of the policies of coal exporting countries,
and international supply and demand. Between 1981 and
2000, annual global capacity additions averaged 40 GW
and international coal prices were stable, remaining mainly
below USD 40/tonne. However,
after 2000 average annual addi-
tions in global coal generation,
capacity almost tripled to 110
GW. Simultaneously interna-
tional prices started to increase
rapidly, became increasingly
volatile, and spiked above USD
120/tonne in 2008. The increase
in capacity additions was largely
a result of the the growth in
electricity demand, especially
in China and India. Whether
the era of stable and low inter-
national coal prices returns or
not depends on the speed and
size of new coal supply coming
online, globally, to meet the ex-
pected growth in coal demand.
Policymakers will need to
account for the risks associated
with international coal prices and trade deficit issues if
they expect to depend on increased imports. Furthermore,
policymakers will have to account for the corresponding
impact on the trade balance and its implications for the
overall fiscal policy of the country. Stakeholders described
Figure 2
India’s Coal Consumption and International Price Trends
(FY 08/09 – FY 12/13)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
International Price of Coal ($/ton)
Annual Coal Consumption (Million tons)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13
HBA Indonesia for
6322 Kcal/kg ($/ton)
Richards Bay, South Africa
for 6000 Kcal/kg ($/ton)
New Castle, Australia
for 6667 Kcal/kg ($/ton)
Imported Steam Coal (in million tons) Domestic (in million tons)
Source: World Bank Database (accessed April 2014)
4

S. African Coal Price ($/ton)Australian Coal Price ($/ton)
Conventional Thermal Capacity (TW)
0.2
0.1
0.0
Annual Capacity Addition (TW)
Figure 3
Global Coal Generation Capacity Additions and International Coal Prices
(1981-2010)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Coal Price ($/ton)
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: WB Database Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 19
the positive impact of increased RE on India’s current ac-
count deficit as a huge benefit, with resulting beneficial
linkages to the cost of finance in the country, resources for
government programmes, and many other ripples through
society.
Stakeholders also consistently mentioned energy security
as a major concern. They recognised the trade-off between
energy security and the price tag of that security. If, in ad-
dition to the import of oil, India is now to rely increasingly
on other nations (e.g., Indonesia, Australia, South Africa,
the United States) to meet its electricity needs, then foreign
policy engagements with these countries will need to reflect
this. Domestic policy shifts in these countries may have im-
plications for the availability of coal for export to India. For
example, in recent years, several new coal export terminals
were being considered in northwestern United States. How-
ever, domestic resistance to building these export terminals
has led either to outright cancellations or to significant
delays. In Indonesia, the government unilaterally changed
its coal pricing policy linking it to the international price,
thereby directly undermining the viability of coal-based
projects (e.g., over 8000 MW of capacity at Mundra in
Gujarat) that were already under construction, as fuel cost
is not passed through to consumers.
Finally, stakeholders identified the geographic and physi-
cal diversity of RE resources as an opportunity to improve
the resiliency of the grid. This is reflected in international
experiences such as recent terrorist attacks on critical grid
infrastructure in California, and natural disasters such as
hurricanes in the United States.
It should be noted that stakeholders advocated for
investment in domestic RE manufacturing as an important
component of an RE strategy to grow Indian high-value
exports and contribute to improvement in India’s balance
of trade (discussed in Chapter 3). There was also interest
in domestic content requirements to reduce imports of RE
supply chain elements.
1.1.3. Environmental Impacts
One stakeholder said that “renewable energy is always
talked about as marginal. We make small efforts and say we are
doing our part. But are we leaving the world a better place?”
Several other stakeholders also insisted that environmental
benefits must be considered when comparing RE to other
power options.
Both power generation and the upstream extraction and
infrastructure of coal and gas are responsible for a wide
range of environmental impacts, while competing with
other users for two key resources: water and land. Envi-
ronmental impacts have major implications for humans as
well as the flora and fauna of India and elsewhere. In this
densely populated and highly agriculture-dependent coun-
try, water and land are scarce resources, the use of which
should be carefully assessed. It should be noted that some
stakeholders indicated that the environmental impacts and
water/land requirements of RE power plants should also
be systematically assessed and mitigated if need be. The
environmental impacts of coal-/gas-based generation can be
broadly classified as:
• Air: CO 2 (climate change), SO2 (key ingredient
for formation of acid rain), NOX (key ingredient
for formation of ground-level ozone formation),
Particulate Matter (PM2.5 and 10), trace elements
such as mercury/arsenic and the like.
• Water: thermal pollution, acid rain (indirect SO2
impact), ash ponds leaking into water bodies (e.g.,
several incidents in the United States), use of toxic
chemicals to treat coal before use in power plants (as
in a recent incident in West Virginia in the United
States).
• Land: ash ponds, mountain-top removal and
dumping of waste in valleys (as in West Virginia in
the United States), permanent destruction of forests
in mining areas for railway lines and power projects
(e.g., in the process of storing coal).
1.1.4. Water Availability
Water availability must also be considered while assess-
ing the implications of the withdrawals for power genera-
tion. WRI (2013) estimated the water stress (i.e., ratio of
water withdrawals to water availability) for all countries,
and determined that India was already categorised as high
stress (i.e., 40 percent to 80 percent ratio) along with
regions such as Middle East and Southeast Asia, Austra-
lia, and North Africa.
5
The main user of water in India is
agriculture, which accounts for approximately 85 percent
of the freshwater use.
The problem of water scarcity is exacerbated by the geo-
graphic concentration of the coal-based generation capac-
ity. Figure 4 presents the geographical distribution of coal
plants in India relative to the level of water scarcity in each
location. The United Nations (2014) indicates that more
than 80 percent of the capacity is located in either water-
5 See: http://www.wri.org/blog/world%E2%80%99s-18-most-
water-stressed-rivers. Accessed July 2014. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 20
scarce or -stressed regions of India.
The high priority accorded to agriculture in
India is expected to lead to conflicts with the
needs of planned generation capacity. Some
examples of these conflicts as mentioned in me-
dia reports are as follows (excerpted from UN,
2014):
• In Madhya Pradesh, power cuts were
imposed to alleviate the water shortage in
the region in 2006 (Hindustan Times, 2006).
• In Kerala, power cuts were imposed to deal
with water scarcity in 2008 when monsoon
rainfall was 65 percent less than normal
(Thaindian News, 2008).
• In Orissa, farmers protested against the
increasing rate of water allocation for
thermal power generation and industrial
use. In response to the protest, the state
government decided to give conditional
permission to construct a thermal power
plant that had applied to use seawater for
cooling purposes rather than river water
to avoid placing further pressure on the
Mahanadi River basin (UNEP Finance
Initiative, 2010).
• Opposition to Adani power projects is
growing in Nagpur. The local community
believes that this power plant poses a threat
to the Pench Tiger Reserves and endangers
drinking water and irrigation water
availability (The Times of India, 2011).
• All six units of the Parli thermal power
plant in the Beed district of Maharashtra
were shut down because of a severe water shortage
in the Marathwada region. The plant had previously
received water from the Khadka dam, but the supply
was stopped because the water in the dam had almost
dried up (NDTV, 2013).
The discussion above has primarily been about the water
use of thermal power plants. On the other side of the coin,
coal-fired generators may also be negatively impacted by
inflows of water at an undesirable temperature, causing
shutdowns in several recent instances.
6
Such occurrences
happen during the higher temperatures of summer, when
typically demand for electricity is the highest, creating po-
tentially major problems for the grid as a whole. According
to the Statistical Year Book of India (2014), the ambient water
temperatures of most rivers in India have been increasing 6 Union of Concerned Scientists, 2013.
steadily over the last decade, from 35.25° C in 2001 to
36.63° C in 2011.
In addition, because of the precipitation patterns and
the condition of the hydroelectric power projects in India,
overall electricity performance has decreased from 3.9 MU
(GWh)/MW in FY 93/94 to 3.05 MU/MW in FY 10/11.
During this period, in several years the performance dipped
well below 3 MU/MW to as low as 2.4 MU/MW in FY
02/03 (Figure 5).
Although power planning has not systematically
accounted for cumulative water requirements of thermal
capacity, in relation to water availability, the issue is certainly
a top concern of Indian industry. Results of FICCI’s 2012
Figure 4
The Water Stress Level of Major River Basins
and the Distribution of TPPs
Source: UN (2014). Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 21
survey of Indian
industry indicate that
66 percent of survey
respondents said that
“water availability is
impacting business
today” and 87 percent
think it will impact
within the next
10 years.
1.1.5. Land
Availability
As for water, one of
the main uses of land
is agriculture, followed
by forests, with a very
small amount of land available designated as fallow (Figure
6). The proportional uses of land vary greatly across India.
The typical land area of a wind farm in India is 9 MW/km2.
However, although this appears high relative to, for exam-
ple, a thermal power station, only a fraction of it is dis-
turbed (less than three percent), and at that only temporar-
ily, during the construction phase. An even smaller fraction
is permanently used (less than one percent), mainly for the
roads that maintenance crews need during the operational
life of the wind farm.
In the case of solar PV, the land requirement in India is
approximately 35 MW/km2. However, solar PV is a highly
modular and scalable technology that can be installed in
sizes ranging from a few square feet to hundreds of acres,
and can be integrated among other land uses. For example,
systematic assessment of rooftop solar PV potential for a
dense city such as New York is as high as approximately
5000 MW and can account for a third of the peak demand
of the city.
A comparison with thermal power land use should in-
clude upstream infrastructure and the disposal of effluents.
Although exercises such as the Central Electricity Authority
(CEA) (2007) have systematically estimated land require-
ments for coal-based electricity generators in India, there
is little systematic analysis in India, or elsewhere, of land
requirements for extraction and transport.
1.1.6. Limited Institutional Coordination
Key stakeholders highlighted an existing lack of coor-
dination among the important institutions responsible for
achieving the accelerated deployment of RE in India. 7 See: www.sandrp.in.
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
MU/MW
Figure 5
India: Diminishing Large Hydro Performance
7
Source: South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers & People, 2011
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Percentage of Land Utilization
2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06
2006-07(P)
2007-08 (P)2008-09 (P)2009-10 (P)2010-11 (P)
Source: Statistical Year Book, 2014
Figure 6
Land Use Patterns in India
Net area sown
Current fallows
Fallow lands other than current fallows
Culturable waste land
Land under miscellaneous tree crops and groves
Permanent pastures and other grazing lands
Not available for cultivation
Forests
(P) = Provisional Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 22
8 Since May 2014 a single minister heads MOP, MNRE and the
Coal ministry.
9 See: https://www.coalindia.in/en-us/company/aboutus.aspx.
Under Entry 38 of List III of the Seventh Schedule of the
Constitution of India, electricity is a concurrent subject: both
state and central governments have jurisdiction. Despite the
ongoing efforts of relevant institutions at the centre and state
levels, the alignment between state and central governments,
and effective coordination, is still a work in progress. Align-
ment and coordination among states is also limited; regional
approaches to addressing various policy issues have typically
been facilitated by the central government instead of being
initiated directly by the states concerned.
Within central government a large number of ministries
are responsible for the various aspects related to electric-
ity. These include the Ministry of Power (MoP), Ministry
of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Ministry of Coal,
Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Environment and Forests,
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Ministry of Rail-
ways, Ministry of Shipping, NITI Aayog, and others.
8
The MoP encompasses several key institutions relevant
for RE, including the Central Electricity Authority, Pow-
erGrid Corporation (PGCIL), Power System Corporation
(POSOCO), National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC),
National Hydro Power Corporation (NHPC), and others.
Within ministries that make policy and administer the
sector, various subordinate institutions own assets. For
example, institutions under MoP, which is responsible for
administering the Electricity Act of 2003, include PGCIL,
which owns the interstate transmission grid; POSOCO,
which is the sole system operator of the interstate grid;
NTPC, which owns more than 40 GW of thermal genera-
tion capacity; NHPC, which owns approximately 6 GW
of hydroelectric capacity; and Coal India, which produces
81 percent of all the coal produced in India.
9
These could
potentially lead to inherent conflicts of interest. Similar
conflicts of interest can also occur at the state level.
The most relevant departments within state government
include energy, the designated/nodal agency, land/revenue,
the pollution control board, and others. In most states, the
energy department owns the holding company that in turn
owns generation, transmission, trading, and distribution
companies that serve the state.
State-owned generation companies (Gencos) were histori-
cally the primary developers of generation capacity. In recent
times, however, the role of national government companies
such as NTPC and NHPC has increased, and in the future
the main developers of capacity are expected to be mostly
from the private sector. The state government owns the in-
trastate transmission and system operation. The state-owned
distribution companies (Discoms) also largely own the
distribution sector, with a few small service territories being
served by private companies and city governments.
As a whole the entire power sector in India is dominated
in terms of direct ownership by the central and state gov-
ernments. In contrast, the entire RE generation capacity has
been developed and owned by private companies, whereas
approximately two-thirds of conventional capacity is still
owned by state and central governments. This may sim-
ply be the result of historical ownership trends, RE being
developed more recently, during a period in which private
ownership is more dominant.
Although various laws, policies, and the nascent regu-
latory framework continue to move the operation of the
power sector toward commercial practises, political consid-
erations continue to conflict with the commercial impera-
tives. Stakeholders noted that India will need to resolve the
dilemma of whether to view the power sector commercially
(i.e., with the fundamental objectives of cost recovery and
return on investment) or as a social enterprise (i.e., with
the fundamental objectives of achieving equitable/fair social
and economic development).
Given that RE is a part of the power sector, the issues
concerning the power sector as a whole will also affect RE.
The rest of this report highlights some of the key institu-
tional issues that need to be addressed in more detail. The
following is a partial list of those issues as expressed by
stakeholders:
• The actual supply chain underlying various energy
resources – both RE and conventional (e.g.,
coal, natural gas) – is distributed across various
line ministries, leading to major concerns about
coordination among government policies (e.g., growth
in coal production is significantly lower than growth
of thermal generation capacity addition, leading to
increased imports of coal).
• Although RE generation capacity targets have been
included in the various five-year plans, so far they
have not been developed in relation to the various
macro-level policy concerns faced by India, such as
energy security, trade deficit, environmental impacts,
and others. No systematic assessment and comparison
of risks, costs, and benefits is conducted across
various energy sources using a common analytical Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 23
platform and through participatory process involving
all relevant government and non-government
stakeholders. Consequently, allocation of appropriate
support mechanisms (e.g., financial incentives) for
various energy sources is not explicitly synchronised
from the perspective of addressing the main policy
concerns listed above.
• The current process of developing RE projects consists
of developers identifying project locations and then
undertaking the various steps, such as procuring
land, obtaining permits, interconnections, and so on
from various agencies within the state and central
government. This process varies significantly from
state to state in terms of its effectiveness. There is
no effort in streamlining this process and making it
consistent across various states to reduce the “soft”
costs. The reduction in project development risks
would also reduce the cost of financing the projects
and improve their viability. Development risk is
discussed in greater detail in Chapter 5.
• The Electricity Act (2003) directs retail tariffs (i.e.,
costs faced by consumers) to reflect actual costs (i.e.,
costs of generation, transmission, and distribution),
however, in reality consumer tariffs do not reflect
costs. This has led to a chronic gap between the total
revenues and costs of the distribution companies
(mostly state-owned), which are also the primary
interface between the consumers and the power
sector as a whole. Both state governments and the
central government either routinely or on specific
occasions continue to provide direct financial support
to distribution companies to bridge the gap between
revenues and costs. This is discussed further in
Chapter 6.
• None of the national or state generation planning
exercises that have been conducted so far has
estimated the level of “flexibility” required from
the non-RE generators to minimise the cost of RE
integration. The various RE grid integration strategies,
such as reducing the variability and uncertainty of
RE generation through aggregation over broader
geographic regions (e.g., larger than states), have not
yet been studied in the Indian context, which would
require at a minimum coordination among a few
states and ideally would be done at a national level.
Similar concerns were raised about the limitations
of current transmission planning exercises. This is
discussed in greater detail in Chapter 7.
• Currently, almost the entire RE generation capacity is
absorbed in the state where it is generated. There is
no coordination with central government institutions,
such as has occurred with conventional power ultra-
mega power plants (UMPPs). Most RE projects are
not selling to buyers outside their states, and hence
the role of central institutions such as PGCIL and
POSOCO is limited. As mentioned earlier, however,
for achieving higher RE market penetration, RE will
have to be sold across state boundaries, and therefore
PGCIL and POSOCO are now planning to coordinate
closely with their state-level counterparts and other
state institutions.
• The cost of integrating RE into the grid (i.e., reducing
the variability/uncertainty and balancing) is reduced
significantly if the geographic area of the grid is
large. This can be achieved either through allowing
greater control over grid operations at a national
level or through creating enabling frameworks (e.g.,
imbalance markets). Again, this requires a high-level
of coordination among system operators, transmission
planners, buyers, and regulators. Central government
institutions such as PGCIL and POSOCO have a key
role in operationalising this coordination. Central and
state regulators, however, need to create regulatory
and market frameworks to make this coordination
happen.
• The lack of sufficient human resource capability and
funds for the various activities required for supporting
RE at all levels of the governments, even routine
activities that support the power sector in general,
is a major limitation faced by various government
agencies (e.g., load dispatch centres [LDCs],
regulatory commissions, planning authorities, and the
like).
• Although MNRE oversees several RD&D institutes
for research on RE, stakeholders indicated limited
systematic and long-term coordination among various
academic and research institutes that are not part of
MNRE. Furthermore, the stakeholders also described
the limited nature of interactions among the research
community, industry, and policymakers.
Experiences within India and abroad show that sys-
tematic coordination and collaboration among all relevant
entities, not just within the central government but also at
the state level, can potentially lead to more robust support
for RE development. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 24
10 See, for example, the Transparency and Access to
Information, Accountability and Redress, Participatory, and
Capacity (TAP-C) principles articulated by Dixit et al (2007).
11 For example, the Energy Information Administration in the
United States and ENTSO-E in the European Union.
1.2. Analytical Framework for
Identifying the Share of RE
The previous section touches on some of the overarch-
ing concerns with regard to the power sector, such as
grid integration, the investment environment, and project
development. These are not yet systematically assessed in
planning activities in India, nor incorporated into both the
macro- and micro-planning activities.
Fundamentally, these planning activities are expected to
identify, quantify, and as far as possible, monetise the costs,
benefits, and risks associated with various electricity sector
components in a holistic manner. Not only should plan-
ning have to characterise the status, it should also attempt
to forecast how the power sector could evolve, in terms of
technology, economics, context, and other factors, in order
to develop a set of potential outcomes that in turn contrib-
ute to the policymaking process.
For such outcomes to be most useful, the whole process
must also strive to incorporate good governance prin-
ciples.
10
It is also critical to develop long-term institutional
capability to conduct these analytical exercises routinely
(e.g., annually), supported by rigorous data compilation
and methodological improvements.
11

The analytical framework consists of three broadly
defined components: macro-analysis, integrated power
planning, and transmission and load flow analysis. Each
of these components is typically assessed separately from
a quantitative modelling perspective. It is important to
note, however, that these three components are not always
analysed independent of each other, as various analytical
exercises may routinely combine different aspects from
each component to advise the specific policy questions, for
example, the combined analysis of specific pollutants (e.g.,
NOX) and their impacts on the environment/human beings
(e.g., ground-level ozone formation linked to asthma) and
power sector operations.
The timeframe over which these types of analyses can
be conducted range from short-term (e.g., next year) to
decades. The longer the timeframe, the higher the uncer-
tainty associated with various parameters (e.g., technology
costs and performance, demand, consumer behaviour) that
are used in the analysis. The short-term analysis typically
focuses on increasing the accuracy of the simulated future,
whereas the long-term analysis typically focuses on devel-
oping outcomes for distinct scenarios that allow policymak-
ers to assess the direction of the changes subject to different
assumptions and policy choices.
The macro-analysis is likely to include both quantita-
tive and non-quantitative aspects, and hence has to rely on
insights from various disciplines such as economics (micro
and macro), atmospheric modelling, epidemiology, and so
forth. The integrated power planning component typically
and primarily relies on insights from the microeconomic
discipline and statistical analysis (e.g., load forecasting),
whereas the transmission planning and load flow analysis
component primarily relies on insights from physics (espe-
cially electrical engineering) and to a lesser extent micro-
economics. The macro-analysis component provides the
broadest perspective of where various societal objectives
interact with each other. Typically, the portfolio of electric-
ity sources is established through a process of optimisation
that attempts to minimise the direct costs of electricity,
such as those of equipment procurement, construction of
the power plant, and so on. However, societal objectives,
such as maximising environmental protection, minimising
imports, providing access to all those who are still not con-
nected to the grid as soon as possible, and optimal use of
water and land resources when other uses (e.g., agriculture)
are included, have also to be met simultaneously with the
objective of minimising the cost of electricity.
The macro-analysis approach attempts to optimise
systematically and transparently the electricity portfolio,
while ensuring that other societal objectives are considered.
Some aspects of the macro-analysis may lend themselves
much more easily to quantification and even monetisation
(e.g., trade deficit). Others may be harder to quantify and
monetise (e.g., water and land availability), and some may
be impossible to even quantify, let alone monetise (e.g.,
energy security, economic growth). Even when quantifica-
tion is not possible, effort must be made to at least clearly
articulate the key costs/benefits/risks in a way that is useful
for policymakers to use the outcomes of the analytical
exercises.
In some ways, India’s five-year planning process does
consider many of these issues in its analytical work. The re-
cent Energy Scenarios Planning tool developed and released
by the NITI Aayog provides a platform that allows any
user to understand the implications of selecting different Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 25
portfolios to meet India’s future needs. Several independent
organisations – such as IRADE, TERI, Greenpeace (2013),
WISE (2014) – have conducted fairly comprehensive ana-
lytical exercises of the type described here.
The integrated power planning component is one of the
most commonly used analytical frameworks for establish-
ing an electricity portfolio. As described earlier, in this
framework the cost of electricity is minimised through the
selection of appropriate supply-side (i.e., generation, trans-
mission, and distribution) and demand-side (e.g., energy
efficiency, demand response, “behind-the-meter” genera-
tion) resources. Typically, economic dispatch models are
used for this type of analysis.
Examples of linkages between this component and the
macro-analysis component include but are not limited to:
environmental pollution reduction equipment costs added
to generation costs (such as scrubbers for SO2 reduction,
Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) for NOX reduction,
CO2 capture) and fuel availability and price (such as risks
associated with reduced fuel availability for non-economic
reasons, volatility in price of fuel).
A vast amount of literature exists on implementing
integrated power planning exercises all over the world. It
should be noted that as the share of RE continues to grow
in different parts of the world, many of these integrated
exercises are now systematically accounting for the unique
characteristics of RE (e.g., variability and uncertainty of RE
generation, and geographic and temporal constraints on RE
availability).
The last component – Transmission Planning and Load
Flow Analysis – refers to the actual physical/electrical
analysis of the grid. Electrons flow according to the laws of
physics. The policy choices made using the macro-analysis
and integrated power planning frameworks must be simu-
lated taking these laws into account, to ensure grid stability
from a physical perspective.
The key linkages of this component with integrated
power planning include but are not limited to: the gen-
eration mix connected to the grid and its operational
characteristics; transmission capacity; and load profiles.
Transmission companies and system operators typically and
routinely commission these types of analyses when changes
are being planned for the grid itself (e.g., transmission line
additions) or to the resources connected to the grid (e.g.,
increased load or addition of a new generator). The geo-
graphic scope of these types of analyses are determined by
institutional boundaries, such as the size of balancing areas
and cooperation among neighbouring areas, and the design
of commercial transaction mechanisms. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 26
2. Choosing the Right Support Mechanisms
T
he share of renewable energy discussed by Indian
government institutions, both in absolute terms
and relative to other sources of electricity, has
become increasingly ambitious over the years,
ranging from:
• 2009: National Action Plan on Climate Change
(NAPCC) target of 15 percent of total electricity
consumption from RE by 2020
• 2010: National Solar Mission (NSM) target of 20 GW
of solar by 2022
• 2013: PGCIL Desert Power 2050 estimate of 458 GW
of wind and solar by 2050
• 2014: Discussions pertaining to a solar target of
100 GW by 2027
• 2014: Consultation pertaining to a National
Wind Energy Mission in which a wind target of
approximately 150 GW by 2027 is being discussed
• 2014: Estimate by the NITI Aayog’s “heroic effort”
scenario of 410 GW of wind and 420 GW of solar by
2047
Key questions face policymakers in the light of these
ambitions, as well as the general perception among
stakeholders that RE is more expensive than conventional
alternatives:
• Whether or not to provide any support for RE?
• If so, what form should it take?
• What volume of support?
• What should the duration of such support be?
Policymakers grapple with these key questions in the
context of wider energy objectives, including the provi-
sion of reliable and cost-effective access to all citizens, fair
allocation of costs across various consumer segments, and
fair returns on investments in energy provision to ensure
long-term viability of the sector as a whole.
In addition, policymakers and stakeholders are begin-
ning to articulate additional objectives such as minimising
environmental impacts, minimising imports, and optimi-
sation of use of land and water resources for electricity
production relative to other uses (e.g., agriculture).
As discussed in Chapter 1, systematic analytical exer-
cises can certainly assist policymakers in addressing these
questions. Some of the insights yielded may even help to
improve the overall efficiency of power sector operation
irrespective of RE, for example, greater cooperation among
balancing areas.
One of the key questions policymakers and stakeholders
around the world have asked of proponents of renewables
is “When does the support end?” The reality is that there is
no single answer: it depends on an abundance of future fac-
tors, including future trajectories of costs of conventional
fuels, technological and cost vectors for renewable technol-
ogies, and the speed, scale, and efficacy of grid modernisa-
tion and integration initiatives.
It is important for policymakers and stakeholders
to understand that the operational changes identified
elsewhere in this report (grid modernisation and
integration, balancing areas and services) do not go away
whether RE is at parity with conventional generation
or not. In a system with large amounts of intermittent
geographically dispersed renewables, those operational and
management changes will be permanent and will continue
to have to be compensated. It is also important to note
that even power systems that consist only of conventional
generation reserves are routinely maintained. The question
is, what are the incremental changes associated with RE for
a given system.
Fundamentally, the definition of parity depends on an-
swering the question “Compared to what?” Parity is there-
fore discussed in different ways in different contexts. For
example, on one hand, a commercial consumer in India
facing a retail tariff of approximately 9 Rs/kWh will find
rooftop PV (cost: approximately 8 Rs/kWh) to have already
reached parity. Similarly, a distribution company trying to
meet peak demand during summer afternoons when the
wholesale market price or the cost of its marginal genera-
tor – typically, an open cycle gas turbine – is very high, may
find PV to be at parity, as it is available exactly during the
peak demand. On the other hand, cost of a new PV power Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 27
plant when compared with the cost of an old, fully depreci-
ated baseload thermal coal plant built at the mine-mouth
and that is using low and fixed price domestic coal would
lead one to conclude that parity has not yet been reached.
For utility-scale RE, parity (i.e., “grid parity”) refers
to the comparison with conventional generation at the
bus-bar (i.e., at the interconnection with the high-voltage
transmission level). The bus-bar cost can include different
attributes, including levelised cost of energy, capacity value,
and so on. Furthermore, the inputs to the bus-bar cost may
have significant uncertainties associated with them (e.g.,
varying fuel costs, risk premium associated with lack of fuel
availability, unscheduled outages, cash-flow, externalities,
and the like). Typically, these could be very difficult to fore-
cast and their implications can be highly contentious.
For distributed RE that is installed behind the meter,
parity (i.e., “socket parity”) would refer to the comparison
with the retail tariff faced by the consumer. The retail tariff
not only includes the bus-bar cost described above, but will
also account for the cost of transmission and distribution
and the technical losses of moving the power from the gen-
erator to the consumers. Furthermore, the retail tariff may
include non-cost considerations, such as cross-subsidies
from large consumers to small consumers. Consequently,
retail tariffs often do not reflect the “true” cost of serving a
consumer at any given point in time.
A key consideration for policymakers who are trying to
address the questions listed at the beginning of this sec-
tion is to establish the framework for comparing RE and
conventional generation and then applying that framework
at regular intervals to assess the situation over time, as the
inputs to the analysis will keep evolving over time. As a
snapshot and using a specific framework defined by Bloom-
berg New Energy Finance - Figure 7 presents a comparison
– as of January 2014 – of the levelised cost of energy from
various sources at a global level. Several observations can
be made from these figures:
• The ranges of costs of both onshore wind and solar
PV have started to overlap significantly with those of
conventional generation such as coal-fired, natural gas
combined cycle technology, large hydro, and so on;
and
• Whether RE has reached grid parity at all depends on
the region/country.
As of today, it is unclear whether grid parity for RE
in general in India has yet been achieved, as systematic
comparisons don’t exist. Analysis of customer-sited solar
PV installations suggests that “socket parity” may have been
achieved for some customer classes in some states; see for
example Bridge to India (2013). As many consumers in
India use diesel generators and battery-inverter sets because
of lack of reliable supply of grid-based electricity, rooftop
  Regional Scenarios
  Q2 2013 central
  H1 2014
Fossil Technologies:
 US
 China
 Europe
 Australia
1037
844
0 100 200 300 400 500
Marine – wave
Marine – tidal
Wind – offshore
STEG – parabolic trough
STEG – LFR
STEG – tower and heliostat
Biomass – gasification
PV – thin film
PV – c-Si
PV – c-Si tracking
Geothermal – binary plant
Biomass – incineration
Municipal solid waste
Wind – onshore
Geothermal – flash plant
Landfill gas
Biomass – anaerobic digestion
Large hydro
Small hydro
Natural gas CCGT
Coal fired
CHP
Nuclear
Figure 7
Technology Costs per MWh
Source: BNEF, 2014 Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 28
PV is already at a significantly lower cost compared with
them. In the following subsections, background on exist-
ing support mechanisms and key concerns about them are
discussed.
2.1. Existing RE Support Mechanisms
Historically, the central government (administered by
MNRE and disbursed through the Indian Renewable En-
ergy Development Agency [IREDA]) has offered two types
of incentives for RE: Accelerated Depreciation (AD) and
Generation-Based Incentive (GBI). In the second phase
of the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM)
that recently commenced, a new mechanism, viability gap
funding (VGF), has been created for solar projects. Capital
subsidy for biomass and small hydro also exists.
• AD refers to a tax-based incentive mechanism in
which RE projects can take larger than normal
depreciation benefits on their tax returns in the initial
years of investment. Although this incentive is in
place for solar power, it has now been cancelled for
wind generation. However, discussions are underway
to reinstate it.
• GBI provides wind electricity producers an incentive
of Rs 0.5 per kWh fed into the grid for a period of
not less than four years and a maximum period of ten
years with a cap of Rs 100 Lakhs per MW. The total
disbursement in a year will not exceed one-quarter of
the maximum limit of the incentive (i.e., Rs 25 Lakhs
per MW during first four years). The GBI scheme will
be applicable for the entire 12th plan period having a
target of 15,000 MW.
• Under the VGF mechanism, the tariff to be paid to
the solar PV developer is fixed at Rs 5.45 per kWh.
This tariff will remain firm for the 25-year project
period. In case the benefit of accelerated depreciation
is availed for a project, the tariff will get reduced to
Rs 4.75 per kWh. The developer will be provided
a VGF based on its bid. The upper limit for VGF is
30 percent of the project cost or Rs 2.5 crores/MW,
whichever is lower. The developer must contribute
its own equity of at least Rs 1.5 crores/MW. VGF is
released in two tranches as follows: 50 percent on
successful commissioning of the full capacity; the
balance of 50 percent progressively over the next five
years of operation, subject to the plant meeting output
requirements.
The state regulator-led RE support mechanisms include:
• Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) and Renewable
Energy Certificates (RECs): Fundamentally, an RPO
is a requirement for an electricity purchaser (e.g.,
a Discom or an open access [OA] consumer) to
procure a certain percentage of electricity from a
specific source (e.g., RE) and recover the cost of that
purchase through its regular ratemaking process.
The source of funds for the incremental cost, if any,
of RE as compared with conventional generation
is the ratepayers. Currently, RPO levels are set
by each State Electricity Regulatory Commission
(SERC) independently, without formal coordination
with other states or the central government. Levels
therefore vary significantly across states (e.g., from 0.6
percent in Meghalaya to 10 percent in Karnataka and
Himachal Pradesh for non-solar, and 0.05 percent in
Tamil Nadu to 1 percent in Bihar/Gujarat). If obligated
entities in the state are unable to procure a sufficient
amount of RE to meet their RPO, they are expected
to purchase RECs in order to meet their RPOs.
The REC is a national market mechanism designed
by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission
(CERC) and operated by POSOCO, the Indian Energy
Exchange, and Power Exchange India.
• Feed-in tariffs (FITs) are preferential tariffs for
procuring RE by Discoms that are established
by a SERC through its usual regulatory process.
The revenues to cover these costs incurred by the
Discoms are part of the usual ratemaking process.
Taken together, the RPO/REC and FIT mechanisms
require Discoms to procure a specified percentage of
electricity from a specific source at a specified cost.
The incremental cost of RE, if any, would impose an
additional burden on the ratepayers. Both the process
(i.e., administrative, or competitive such as reverse
bidding) and the level of FITs vary significantly across
the various states. For example, in almost all the states
except Rajasthan, the FIT for wind is set through an
administrative process. In Rajasthan, a competitive
bidding process was announced for establishing
the price of wind. In most states, solar FITs are set
through a competitive bidding process. There are
various other types of direct and indirect financial
incentives created for supporting RE in India that
rely on tax and/or duty mechanisms, and vary by RE
application (e.g., agricultural solar pumps, customer-
side RE, and so forth). Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 29
2.2. Issues With Existing Support
Mechanisms
Stakeholders presented diverse opinions on the RPO. At
the national level, one of the key drivers behind RPOs as
perceived by stakeholders is the NAPCC target, a national
15 percent of RE share by 2020 in energy terms. As dis-
cussed earlier, new targets are also being discussed that may
be significantly larger than the NAPCC. However, neither
the NAPCC nor the other targets are directly linked to the
various state-level RPO targets in a legislative sense. Al-
though several attempts continue to be made to harmonise
the state-level RPO targets with the national targets, these
have seen only limited success.
On one hand, RE-rich states indicated that they have
already met or are close to meeting their RPO requirements,
but are not keen on exceeding these requirements, citing
grid integration concerns. Hence in some cases the RPO
may in effect become a ceiling on deployment, rather than
a stimulus.
Typically, the RPOs of RE-rich states are more aggres-
sive and are at significantly higher levels, for example, as in
Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. These
states acknowledge that they have large potential for RE,
but nevertheless find limitations on the extent to which RE
power plants can be deployed with the intention of selling
power to other states.
Meanwhile, RE-poor states are reluctant to set aggres-
sive RPOs, as they feel that they do not have sufficient RE
resources (especially wind), and/or that land acquisition is
a major limitation (especially for solar). In most of the RE-
poor states, there appears to be limited awareness of and
willingness to procure RE from the RE-rich states.
Unlike conventional generation, wherein states have
been routinely procuring power from other states and/or
procuring fuel (e.g., coal) for their generators, it is not clear
why they are reluctant to procure RE from other states. This
fact fits well with the observations of stakeholders in RE-
poor states, where it appears that RE generation needs to
be physically located in the state, and that if there is limited
availability of RE and/or land for developing RE, then the
state should not have to achieve the ambitions of RE-rich
states. There may be a fundamental misconception among
some stakeholders that RPO is a generation obligation and
not a purchase or procurement obligation.
Coal and wind resources are similar in the sense that
both are geographically available in only specific locations.
Hence, a similar approach to developing wind resources
could be considered as for coal.
Some of the constraint on moving large amounts of
RE from one state to another stems from the lack of suf-
ficient transmission capacity, and a lack of appropriate grid
integration mechanisms, although some stakeholders did
question whether these usually accepted assertions were
factually true or in fact misconceived.
Either way, in both RE-rich and RE-poor states, the
perceived (if not real) higher cost of RE relative to conven-
tional generation, coupled with the large fiscal deficits of
Discoms, has in many cases led the latter to consider RE to
be a less attractive proposition. Their chronic financial ill
health (see Chapter 6) is the key reason SERCs in various
states appear to be sympathetic to their position, and hence
neither raise RPOs nor enforce them.
The REC mechanism is intended to provide a commer-
cial platform to share the incremental cost of RE equitably
across India consumers, because of this uneven dispersal of
RE resources about the country. Similar mechanisms have
been implemented in many other countries also. In the
Indian context, however, this mechanism has not been suc-
cessful to date for four key reasons:
1. RPO targets across states are not uniform and low
RPOs create limited demand for RECs;
2. Enforcement of RPO targets is limited at best, which
in turn limits demand for RECs;
3. Politically, the state-owned Discoms find it difficult
to pay for an REC, which is perceived simply to be
a “piece of paper” separate from the procurement of
useful electricity, at a time when that procurement is
insufficient to alleviate power shortages; and
4. Key stakeholders do not have a clear understanding
about the reasons underlying the prices discovered in
the REC markets.
In consequence, a large quantity of RECs remains unsold
and the price languishes at the administratively determined
floor price. The market is considered to be more or less
defunct by many stakeholders. This situation has created
a sense among the investment community that RECs are
unlikely to improve the viability of RE projects until these
issues are resolved.
Turning to concerns with the FIT, AD, GBI, and VGF
mechanisms, opinions on their effectiveness fall into two
camps:
• One set of stakeholders believes that the
administratively set incentive levels (especially for
wind) lead to windfall profits for RE producers, and
that levels should instead be established through Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 30
12 IEA, 2011.
transparent and competitive mechanisms; and
• Another believes that RE is still in a nascent
development stage, and that various risks (e.g.,
land, grid integration) have not yet been addressed
sufficiently to allow for a shift to a competitive
mechanism.
One major consequence of these diametrically
opposed opinions is significant policy uncertainty as
policymakers are swayed this way and that, which is a
principal disincentive to private investors. In general, the
opinions and experiences of stakeholders suggest that
there is limited communication and coordination among
the various relevant entities (SERCs, MNRE, the MoF,
State Development Agencies/State Nodal Agencies, CERC,
POSOCO, and so on) that are responsible for designing
these mechanisms.
Comprehensive and systematic discussions may be
necessary to answer the following questions:
• Are all the different mechanisms needed
simultaneously?
• Should there be only one support mechanism across
the country?
• Who should design the support mechanism,
implement it, and administer it?
• What are the linkages of financial incentives to real
and perceived barriers that they are attempting to
address?
• What is the long-term viability of the existing sources
of funds from which these incentives are drawn? If the
viability of existing sources of funds is low, then what
new/alternative sources can be considered?
The International Energy Agency (IEA) released an
important report in 2011 that addresses the present
range of options for support policy design. Deploying
Renewables: Best and Future Policy Practices describes a
number of principles to be borne in mind and highlights
how mechanisms may evolve to better suit the maturity of
the technologies they seek to stimulate.
12 Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 31
13 UNEP, 2013
14 GWEC, 2012.
3. Manufacturing, Human Resources, and RD&D
T
he global market for low-carbon and energy
efficient technologies, including renewable energy
technologies, is projected to nearly triple to
USD 2.2 trillion by 2020.
13
Stakeholders raised
this as a critically important issue around which India
policymakers needed to engage.
In India and globally, renewable energy represents an
opportunity not only to diversify the energy supply mix
but also to support the growth of new and existing parts
of national economies, with the benefits of industrial sec-
tor expansion and diversification, innovative research and
development, and job creation.
As the renewable energy market expands in India, fed by
a supportive policy framework, demand for related goods
and services will ripple through the supply chain. This may
lead to growth in domestic production, which can provide
improved supply chain security.
Internationally, India has the opportunity to further grow
its manufacturing base, taking advantage of factors such as
low cost of labor and proximity to fast-growing Asian mar-
kets to expand domestic production and export income.
A key challenge for policymakers is and will remain the
striking of a balance between the extent to which India
seeks to manufacture for domestic and export to global
markets, and the extent to which it should import the best
available technologies and components from overseas mar-
kets. The resolution of this challenge will help India focus
on manufacturing, as well as research and development
policy, and extract the maximum possible value for the
economy in terms of growth and job creation, while grow-
ing and sustaining a competitive renewable energy sector.
This chapter explores the current situation in India today
as regards manufacturing, and the issues of import substi-
tution and protection. It sets out the costs and benefits of
domestic industry, and discusses research and development
needs, as well as the need for skills and labor.
3.1. RE Manufacturing Today
Both wind and solar technologies are manufactured in
India, although the extent to which their components are
manufactured or assembled in India varies. In 2013, 700 to
800 MW of solar and 10,000 MW of wind manufacturing
capacity existed.
Quite distinct pictures emerge of the present health,
scale, and value of wind and solar manufacturing in India.
This is a function of the relative maturity of each – wind
deployment preceded that of solar power and in terms of
deployment dominates the market – but it also reflects
other issues, such as the global dominance in solar manu-
facturing of nations such as China, who over the last five
years have reshaped the solar PV manufacturing landscape.
3.1.1. Manufacturing Challenges
An established and mature wind turbine-manufacturing
sector has grown up in India in parallel with the deploy-
ment of wind projects across the country in the last eight
to ten years. India is emerging as a major turbine manufac-
turing centre, and a diverse market of manufacturers has
developed in recent years (Table 2). In 2012, 13 manu-
facturers were active, producing a range of different sized
products, with an annual production between them of
more than 9500 MW.
14
Indian manufacturers are able to sell products into the
global market for wind turbines and be competitive by tak-
ing advantage of lower manufacturing costs. Their export
markets include South America, the United States, Europe,
and Australia.
Wind power deployment faces challenges from several
quarters, however, including:
• A recent fall-off in demand for turbines as domestic
development rates have slowed following policy Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 32
15 See Goodrich et al, 2013.
shifts, particularly with the withdrawal of accelerated
depreciation and the delay in reinstating generation-
based incentives;
• A shortage of essential raw materials, notably
fiberglass for blade construction, and rare earth
materials used in controls;
• Dependence on overseas suppliers for critical
components such as gearboxes and bearings, which
are not produced domestically; and
• Logistical bottlenecks: access to suitable port facilities,
and site access (particularly where larger wind
turbines are involved, road infrastructure may be
inadequate).
In aggregate, these factors have contributed to negative
growth in wind manufacture in 2013. Stakeholders asserted
that as much as three-quarters of Indian wind manufactur-
ing was lying idle.
Solar manufacturing, in contrast to that of wind power, is
at an early stage. It is more fragmented, and focussed mainly
on the domestic market. According to stakeholders, solar
manufacturing faces a number of challenges, including:
• Competition from overseas manufacturers, which
benefit from aggressive support policies, such as
those in China, where the sector is backed by direct
and indirect subsidies. Chinese industry also benefits
from long-term measures, such as stable power
procurement processes.
• A global supply glut as a result of excess
manufacturing capacity, and a growing disparity
between the rate of installation and manufacture.
In 2013, 28 to 30 GW of solar PV was installed,
whereas up to 65 GW was manufactured, resulting
directly in a decrease in PV panel prices and reduced
manufacturing margins.
The solar PV manufacturing base in India is small and
unable to benefit from economies of scale or the benefits of
vertical integration found in Chinese and US manufactur-
ing.
15
Indeed, vertically integrated Chinese manufacturers
have been able to use their installation arms to exploit the
Source: GWEC, 2012
Table 2
Wind Sector Manufacturers Active in India (2012)
ManufacturerDrive
Technology
Rating (kW)Speed Generator Class
Enercon 800 Gearless Variable Synchronous II-S
GE Wind 1,500 Gear Variable DFIG II A
GE Wind 1,600 Gear Variable DFIG II
Suzlon 1,250/2,100 Gear Fixed Asynchronous II A/III
Suzlon 1,500 Gear Fixed Asynchronous III A
Suzlon 2,250 Gear Variable DFIG II B
Vestas India 1,650/1,800 Gear Variable Asynchronous II B/III A
RRB Energy 1,800 Gear Variable Asynchronous II/III
Gamesa 850 Gear Variable DFIG II A/III B
Gamesa 2,000 Gear Variable DFIG II A/III A
Global Wind Power Limited 2,500 Gear Variable Synchronous III A
Inox Wind Limited 2,000 Gear Variable DFIG III B
Kenersys India 2,000 Gear Variable Synchronous II A
Leitner-Shriram 1,350/1,500 Gearless Variable Synchronous II A/III A
ReGenPowertech 1,500 Gearless Variable Synchronous III A/III B
WinWinD 1,000 Gear Variable Synchronous III B Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 33
supply glut.
Stakeholders maintain that Indian solar PV suffers from
a largely unsupportive policy framework, wherein price per
MW must compete against other generation technologies of
which the full costs are not recognised, such as the environ-
mental costs of coal power.
Much Indian solar PV manufacturing is dated, mean-
ing that its products are of comparably low efficiency and
do not command the highest prices compared to compet-
ing nations that have recently invested heavily in modern
facilities. This is a function of the infancy of the Indian
market, which has not driven efficiency in the same way as
witnessed in these more advanced markets. Stakeholders
asserted that in 2013 as much as 80 percent of Indian solar
PV manufacturing capacity was lying idle.
3.2. Support for Domestic Manufacturing
Stakeholders have suggested that one of the most pro-
ductive ways of approaching policy support for Indian RE
manufacturing is to consider the simple question of wheth-
er it is better for India to make or buy. Framing the debate
in this way allows for a discussion focussed around the
most efficient way for India to compete in RE manufacture
and meet its own requirements. Implicit in this approach is
a consideration of employment benefits, opportunities for
export, energy security, as well as domestic energy intensity
and best return on investment.
To date, both state and central government support
has been focussed on building demand for manufactured
goods and services, through such mechanisms as premium
tariffs for electricity generation and accelerated depreciation
benefits designed to reduce the tax burden of investors in
such projects.
On the supply side, the renewable energy industry
benefits, alongside other sectors, from a number of
mechanisms that support manufacturing. Broadly speaking,
such measures may fall into two categories: (1) those that
encourage domestic manufacturing, and (2) measures that
discourage foreign imports that might otherwise substitute
for the former.
They include the subsidy to capital expenditure
on manufacturing facilities, for example, through the
Special Incentive Package Scheme and local content
rules requiring that one or more components be sourced
domestically. Most of the major initiatives derive from
central government rather than the states, and their design
is discussed briefly below.
Recent reporting suggests that more than 75 percent of
existing Indian solar capacity is of foreign origin, despite
a number of albeit rather fragmented policies aimed at
encouraging domestic production.
It is worth noting at the outset that foreign companies
are encouraged to operate in India; the emphasis is on
local manufacturing, not local ownership. For example,
100-percent foreign direct investment is allowed in Indian
renewable energy manufacturing facilities. As of June 2013,
cumulative foreign direct investment in non-conventional
energy source stood at approximately Rs 13 426 crores.
Some international wind companies with subsidiaries
in India source over 80 percent of their components from
Indian component manufacturers. Leading manufacturers
like Suzlon, Vestas, and Enercon, and newer entrants such
as Gamesa, GE, Siemens, Regen Powertech, and WinWinD,
have set up production facilities in India.
Although largely a demand-side policy, focussing on pre-
mium tariffs for electricity production to achieve 22 GW of
solar PV by 2022, the JNNSM also aims to create a strong
manufacturing base for solar energy in India. Accordingly
the JNNSM includes a requirement for the use of domesti-
cally produced raw materials, components, and products.
Wider, domestic-content requirements are designed to
ensure that for any one solar project a 50-percent propor-
tion of the components is sourced domestically. Although
certain wind components – for example, those that are not
manufactured in India – are eligible for rebates on import
duty, local content rules render redundant the import of
complete turbines. Every turbine installed in India must be
tested and certified by the Centre for Wind Energy Technol-
ogy, part of the MNRE. Failure to comply would disqualify
the power plant in question from grid connection and
financial incentives. Consequently, foreign manufacturers
are obliged to establish a local manufacturing facility.
The Special Incentives Package Scheme was launched by
the Department of Information Technology in 2007. The
scheme allows for a capital dispersal, or equity stake, up
to the value of 20 percent of capital expenditure (CAPEX).
Although a small number of RE companies participate in
the scheme, to date no dispersals have been made. A modi-
fied Special Incentive Package Scheme for 20 to 25 percent
of CAPEX was announced in July 2012, but also has yet to
have significant impact on manufacturing.
The National Manufacturing Policy (NMP) announced
in November 2011 aims to raise the share of manufacturing
in gross domestic product (GDP) to 25 percent, and in the
process to generate 100 million additional manufacturing Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 34
jobs by 2022. Although the policy is sector neutral, it does
refer specifically to green technology. Even this classifica-
tion is very broad, however. Nevertheless, the NMP identi-
fies solar and wind energy as being of strategic significance
alongside defense and telecoms, for example.
The NMP allows for the development of National Invest-
ment and Manufacturing Zones established via special
purpose vehicles. These would be industrial towns with
state-of-the-art infrastructure and zoned land-use, powered
by renewable technologies.
3.2.1. Export Promotion
Indian manufacturers are engaging in the global market
by taking advantage of lower manufacturing costs in India.
Indian companies now export domestically manufactured
wind turbines and blades to Australia, Brazil, Europe, the
United States, and other countries.
Under the Special Economic Zones (SEZ) Act of 2000,
SEZs are intended to provide speedy clearance, infrastruc-
ture support, fiscal incentives, and tax exemptions for
increasing exports. Out of 588 SEZs formally approved,
however, only two relate to export-oriented solar PV facili-
ties, although these have had some success.
The Export Promotion Capital Good scheme, under
which renewable energy qualifies, allows for renewable en-
ergy technology to be eligible for zero percent duty. More-
over, under India’s five yearly export–import policy, green
technology is listed as a Focus Product Scheme. This means
that export of RE components or raw materials is entitled to
a duty credit equivalent to two to five percent of the freight
on board value of the exported material.
The export obligation – in brief, the required export
volume to qualify for concessional duty rates – for specified
“green energy technologies” under the Export Promotion
Capital Good scheme has been reduced to 75 percent. This
applies to solar cells, modules and components, biomass
gasification and boiler equipment, wind turbines, electric
vehicles, and waste heat boilers and recovery units.
3.3. Domestic Industry and
International Competition
Discussion with roadmap stakeholders revealed aware-
ness of a dichotomy between the importance of domestic
industry and resulting macroeconomic benefits to India,
on the one hand, and the need to maximise competition to
deliver reliable and least-cost equipment on the other.
Belief in the relative value of these two effects seemed to
be dependent on the type of stakeholder in question, each
perceiving positive and negative impacts on his/her own
position.
Those in favour of preferential treatment for domestic
manufacture of one kind or another included:
1. Domestic manufacturers, including those who also
develop power plants, who want strong support for
domestic manufacturing, including the continuation
or strengthening of Domestic Content Requirement
(DCR) for power plant projects in order to build on or
protect existing demand for their own production of
components; and
2. Foreign manufacturers who have invested in
manufacturing in India and who believe that the
policy emphasis should be on building up an Indian
industry, but not one based solely on indigenous
technology, and who prefer a market offering
incentive for local manufacture.
Those in favour of a level playing field between domestic
and foreign manufacture included:
3. Foreign manufacturers, manufacturing overseas
and then exporting to India, who would like access
to the market to be on a completely level playing
field, with no differentiation made among sources of
components, to maximise competition to drive down
costs; and
4. Developers, both domestic and foreign, who also
believe the focus should be solely on maximising
competition.
Identification of which of the two camps is correct is not
within the scope of this roadmap, which is rather to high-
light that both represent possible advantages and disadvan-
tages. The following section presents how the relative costs
and benefits might be weighed up.
3.3.1. Costs and Benefits of Nurturing Domestic
Industry
Stakeholders raised positive and negative arguments for
both the free competition approach, and the preference
for developing a domestic market. These are captured in
Figure 8.
As has been apparent in both the wind and PV markets
in recent years, tightness of supply of components as op-
posed to inherent technology costs has a major effect on
market prices of those components. This was apparent in
the wind industry in 2004 to 2009 and in the PV industry
when module prices dropped by a factor of five from 2008
to 2013. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 35
16 World Bank, 2013.
17 UNEP, 2013.
18 MNRE/CII, 2010.
Domestic supply may offer some insulation from this
effect. However, if domestic manufacturing fails to keep
pace with deployment, then import duties, for example,
will exacerbate supply tightness as they reduce the options
available to developers and manufacturers.
Local manufacturing may have a positive effect on the
balance of trade. For example, US annual exports of solar
products to India were worth USD 119 million before the
NSM required domestic content in power plants under the
scheme, but have fallen precipitously since then. This issue
also spills over into wider trade relations among countries.
Further analysis should examine the expected total cost
of renewable energy hardware needed to meet deploy-
ment targets. This will indicate, on the one hand if import
is relied on, the potential resulting burden on the balance
of trade, and on the other hand, the potential value to the
Indian economy of building factories in India, in terms
of GDP, employment, and technological innovation, for
example.
The Indian solar PV market is expected to be worth
some USD 11 billion by 2017.
16
On top of that there is the
potential for exports to be considered. India is well located
to serve as a hub for global export if the technology is of
the highest standard.
There are also potential negative impacts of protect-
ing domestic industry. If it is protected from international
competition, this may translate into an unnecessary ex-
penditure. Recent analysis of the effects of DCR under the
NSM, by Bridge to India (2014), suggests that the overall
cost may be 65 percent greater, amounting to an additional
USD 1.1 billion, as domestic equipment is more expensive.
This could be seen as a windfall to domestic suppliers, and
a disincentive to reduce their costs.
Furthermore, DCR may protect less ef-
ficient technologies, in terms of reliability,
capacity utilisation factors, and higher oper-
ation and maintenance (O&M) costs, which
might otherwise be rooted out by exposure
to the global market.
3.4. Human Resources
Across the Value Chain
Investing in renewable energy technolo-
gies creates new employment opportuni-
ties. In 2010, more than 3.5 million people
worldwide were estimated to be working,
either directly or indirectly, in the renew-
able energy sector, and further growth is expected. Esti-
mates suggest that by 2030, 2.1 million people could be
employed in the wind sector and 6.3 million in the solar PV
sector.
17
These jobs will be distributed across manufactur-
ing, fabrication, installation, O&M, project development,
and marketing.
For India, a 2009 MNRE study estimated that 42,000
people were either directly or indirectly employed in the
wind sector, with high growth scenarios indicating that as
many as 160,000 might be employed in the sector by 2020.
On-grid PV sector employment in 2009 was relatively
small, estimated at 4000, but in reaching the 20 GW by
2022 target of Phase One of the NSM, employment levels
could rise as high as 152,000. For the off-grid PV sector in
2009, employment numbers were thought to be 72,000,
projected to reach 225,000 by 2022.
18
In parallel with this predicated expansion of RE em-
ployment in India there is growing need for the right type
of skilled manpower. Focus here is on the availability of
skilled manpower, some of it specialist, attracting and
retaining talent, training and capacity building those in the
sector, and the necessary expansion of renewable energy
curricula in universities, to ensure the sustained supply of
manpower.
In this respect, analysis of the areas in which human
resources are presently lacking in India may be needed to
Positive impact on
trade balance
Protected
Market
Global
Market
Supply chain
flexibility
Domestic job
creation
Full range of
tech options
Domestic
production base
Greater
competition
Supply chain
control
Cheaper financing
??
Figure 8
Perceived Advantages of Protected and Global Markets Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 36
predict growing needs for labor and skills, and the extent to
which programmes will be needed to augment the current
workforce (Figure 9). In this respect, stakeholders pointed
out a need to survey the existing capacity of universities to
produce candidates with the right skills.
Additional resources will be needed not only on the RE
industry side, but also to enable the integration and man-
agement of the RE produced by installed capacity. Dur-
ing the road-mapping process, this need was cited to be
particularly important in grid planning, system operation,
and regulation.
For example, although the CEA, the central grid plan-
ning body within the MoP, has deep experience of the
needs of conventional power plants, its experience of re-
newable energy, and in particular variable renewable energy
from wind and solar PV, is limited. Stakeholders suggested
that the CEA should have a dedicated RE integration team.
Whether or not this is so, it is likely that its human re-
source in this area needs to be increased.
Similarly, state LDCs, responsible for system operation,
tend to be under-resourced. Increased electricity variability
and uncertainty from wind and solar power plants increase
the complexity of the system operation task. This can be
assisted not only by new technology and operating proce-
dures, but also by team members with dedicated training in
new operation techniques (see Chapter 8).
SERCs are already stretched. Typically, the commission
may consist of two or three members, with a modest staff.
New practises and needs arising from growing numbers
of independent RE producers represent a heavy burden to
such small teams. The commissions themselves may need
to be expanded, as well as their staffs, and both may need
dedicated training to prepare them for new responsibilities.
3.5. RE Technology Needs Specific to
India
It is not intended for this section to provide an exhaus-
tive exploration of the research and development needs of
renewable energy in India, but rather to touch upon the
highlights, which have been raised in exchanges with stake-
holders. Indeed there have been calls
for increased collaboration across the
sector in order to better understand
the extent and nature of the research
and development priorities within the
wind and solar markets in India.
For the wind market development
and the technology needs required to
support it, the following issues have
been highlighted by stakeholders:
• A need for wind mapping studies
to determine wind resources within
lower level (10- to 20-meter height
range), particularly in urban areas.
This work could support the
development of a long-term strategy
to support indigenous production
of wind turbines suited to these
particular conditions.
• For the off-shore wind market to grow, research and
development is needed to assess the resource and
the way it could be technically exploited; such work
might include studies of offshore meteorology, marine
geology, bathymetry, and offshore transmission. To
support this work, international approaches might be
usefully looked at, an example being the approach of
the Crown Estate, which has supported the expansion
of offshore wind in the United Kingdom.
• A training centre for wind energy at the Centre for
Wind Energy Technology could conduct specialised/
customised training courses to cater to client needs
with a model laboratory containing all wind-related
equipment and software to provide hands-on practical
training to all levels of participants, also incorporating
research and development priorities.
• A wind turbine simulator facility could train and
Manufacturing
key components
Testing and
standards
Operation
and
maintenance
Grid
planning
(Chapter 7)
System
operation
(Chapter 8)
Regulatory
capacity
Growing
need for
skilled labor
Figure 9
Potential Human Resource Needs Across the Value Chain Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 37
19 Further information on these two initiatives for wind and
solar PV technology can be found at http://www.ieawind.org/
about_co-operative_agree.html# and http://www.iea-pvps.
org, respectively.
assess operators in general plant operation, including
training in plant start-up and shut-down, supervision,
and monitoring and control during normal and
emergency situations and in safety procedures. In
addition, the simulator can be used as a powerful tool
for engineers and plant managers to verify operation
and control strategies as well as investigation and
testing of operational challenges.
The IEA’s Implementing Agreement on Wind Energy
and the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme deal
profoundly with the research and development needs of
wind and solar PV technologies, respectively. A number of
stakeholders suggested closer interaction with these bodies
to further define research tasks in the Indian context.
19

3.6. Summary
As well as its value simply in terms of electricity, renew-
able energy deployment represents opportunities to support
economic growth, with potential benefits in terms of ex-
panded manufacturing, diversification, innovative research
and development, and job creation.
A simple list, however, disguises the complex feedback
among these potential benefits. For example, economic
growth will be benefitted by the cheapest possible electric-
ity, but it will also benefit from domestic manufacturing,
bearing in mind the long-term goal to increase the manu-
facturing share of GDP to 25 percent, and the possibility
of exports and increased opportunities for skilled employ-
ment.
Meanwhile, policy designed to shelter domestic manu-
facturing from the international market in the short term
may inadvertently protect more expensive or less reliable
electricity production for the longer term, which will have
an increasingly adverse impact on industry as it grows to
represent a larger share of overall production.
Human resources need to be planned for. Targeted
financial support for manufacturing will be most effective
if there is a skilled workforce in place to benefit from it.
But the human resource need is not only in manufacturing.
At almost every stage in the value chain there is a need for
skilled labor: from design and manufacture of components,
including key components not yet produced in India,
through construction, to O&M of built capacity. It contin-
ues through new skills needed in grid planning and deploy-
ment, in system operation to manage variability, and in
regulation to develop the power market in such a way that
it is amenable to changing output patterns of power plants. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 38
4. Achieving and Sustaining Investment Volume
T
o reach targets for
renewable energy
deployment such as
those detailed in Chapter
1, commensurate investment is
needed in manufacturing, renewable
power plants, and sufficient grid
infrastructure to move the electricity
they generate to market, as well as a
range of accompanying investments
in the power system more generally.
The often-asked question, “How
much investment in RE capacity is
needed?” can be answered simply
enough by taking the scale and tim-
ing of RE ambitions and the hardware
required, and factoring in an estima-
tion of the reduction of capital cost
over time, although this in itself is
uncertain. Costing wider infrastruc-
ture needs is more complex, although this too can be esti-
mated roughly, once detailed studies of transmission needs
have been carried out.
The key question, however, is “Where will the money
come from?” Past power sector investment in India has usu-
ally come from the public sector. But there are fundamental
questions about what the future role of public sector spend-
ing should be, relating particularly to where public spend-
ing brings the greatest added value.
Renewable energy deployment in India, alongside that
of conventional energy, has to some extent coincided with a
shift away from the publicly funded model to a private one.
Indeed, given likely volume and time constraints on the
amount of public funds available for investment in energy
infrastructure, it seems increasingly likely that the major
role – particularly as regards new power plants – will be
taken by the private sector.
It is essential, consequently, that private investors both
domestic and foreign find India an attractive place to do
business. The level of risk, but also uncertainty as to what
that level actually is, are of the greatest concern to inves-
tors. If risks are well understood, manageable, and accept-
able, then funds are more likely to flow.
These risks may relate to the technology to be deployed
in a project, project performance in terms of energy out-
put, the reliability of the buyer, and a host of other factors
operating in the context of current policy, regulation and
legislation. The sources of many of the key risks are high-
lighted in subsequent chapters in this report, as illustrated
in Figure 10.
The role of public institutions, at both central and state
level, may be to address those risks over which they have the
greatest control, thus providing greater certainty for investors
– in a sense, the collateral. The public sector can also make
use of products and services provided by the private sector
in their approaches to risk mitigation, for instance in wind
resource assessment or turbine warranty, where companies
such as 3Tier and GE offer packaged services.
Investment
Environment
Evacuation Chapter 7
Chapter 8CurtailmentO & M
Chapter 3Chapter 6
GenerationChapter 2
Chapter 5
Project development risk
Technology
change
Payment
from buyers
Figure 10
Sources of Risk and Their Discussion in This Report Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 39
20 BNEF, 2014b.
4.1. The Investment Market
India has established itself as the fifth largest renewable
energy market in the world and has ambitions for further
growth. For the short-term at least, the general consensus
of stakeholders is that some technologies are more expen-
sive than conventional power, and require support from
government to make investment in them more attractive.
The nature, consistency, and extent of that support directly
influence the volume of investment flowing into the sector.
The investment market has evolved in response to initia-
tives at central and state levels. Historically, wind power
led the market, driven by central support in the form of
AD – tax benefits offered from 1995 – coupled with state-
level incentives such as preferential FIT and/or liberal open
access policies. From 2007, investment was further encour -
aged with the introduction of the (central) GBI, which in
2013 saw wind capacity reach 20 GW nationwide.
Then the solar market began to pick up, driven by the
launch of the JNNSM in 2010, which saw capacity reach
427 MW by 2011. 2011 also saw the peak of investment in
and across the renewable energy sector.
Uncertainty hampers the development of a sustainable
market for renewables in India. Part of the problem appears
to be that as energy is a “concurrent” policy issue (i.e.,
within the purview of both central and state governments)
investors often do not regard India as a single market, but
rather as many separate markets, each with its own particu-
larities, risks, and opportunities. Combined with the ten-
dency of policymakers to tinker with support mechanisms
and financial incentives, this drives the investment market
toward volatile, short-term, and opportunistic behaviour.
Debate as to the most efficient approach to securing sus-
tainable long-term investment has centred on the need to
strike a balance between state and central support, and the
effectiveness of generation versus capacity-based incentives,
particularly how they interact with the tax environment and
business models. More recently, attention has also focussed
on whether lower cost, long-term, debt-related approaches
are more cost effective than present approaches or whether
insurance products combined with financial products need
to be considered more seriously..
This report does not attempt to resolve this debate,
although given limited government resources, determining
how best to support investment is vitally important. A com-
prehensive GOI review of options for long-term support for
the RE market would be a good step toward more sustain-
able growth in investment.
4.1.1. Volume Trends
For India to meet its targets for RE deployment, as
detailed in Chapter 1, annual investment must rise
dramatically and be sustained through 2027 and beyond.
Investment in RE was USD 5.7 billion in 2013, a
20-percent decline from the USD 7.1 billion invested in
2012, and less than half of the USD 12.7 billion in 2011
(Figure 11). Forecasts for 2014 suggest investment of
between USD 5.5 and 7 billion, split between wind and
solar (USD 2 to 2.5 billion and 2 to 3 billion, respectively,
in the lower estimate) with biomass and others accounting
for the remainder.
20

Volume fluctuates as a result of wider economic factors
also, but recent changes appear strongly to reflect changes
to the various support regimes and delayed auction of solar
PV Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) at both state and
national levels.
Recent reductions in investment were most marked in
the solar sector where slippage occurred in the implemen-
tation of programmes due for 2013. Six states conducted
state-level solar auctions, but many of the winning projects
had not signed PPAs by mid-January 2014. Indeed, of a tar-
geted solar capacity of 2660 MW across the six states, only
725 MW had reached the point of signing a letter of intent,
a tentative commitment, or a PPA proper.
At the national level, the Solar Energy Corporation
of India launched a 750-MW tender for Batch One of
the Second Phase of the National Solar Mission in early
October 2013; this too has suffered delays, with resulting
commissioning deadlines pushing back into May 2015.
Wind sector build rates also declined in 2013, falling to
pre-2010 levels as a result of the withdrawal of AD and
delays in the reintroduction of the GBI.
Beyond the organised auctioning of projects, solar
deployment is taking the form of new captive power plant
and behind-the-meter assets. Determining the scale of
these assets is difficult, as data is poor. The distributed
solar market is driven by recent decreases in PV prices,
offering a cheaper source of electricity than the alternatives:
unreliable grid-based supply and/or (back-up) diesel
generator sets.
As the cost of battery storage in particular falls, and
owing to their modularity, distributed PV deployment is
likely to accelerate. The consequences of this are uncertain,
but lessons from markets in Europe, particularly Germany, Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 40
and the western United States suggest that this may erode
the incumbent utility business model, with knock-on
effects on the conventional electricity market.
Although most investment to date has gone into wind
deployment, solar investment is set to increase, and will
continue to gain on wind volumes, provided that the issues
above are addressed.
4.2. Investor Types
Broadly speaking, project investment
falls into two categories: (1) equity in a
given project or business in return for a
corresponding proportion of ownership
and revenue, and (2) debt in return for a
flow of interest and repayments. Differ-
ent categories of investors will gener-
ally prefer one or the other investment
route. For example, banks typically lend,
whereas private equity firms will buy in.
Investor types include public institu-
tions, banks, and private companies
(e.g., large consumers, RE technology
providers) operating from a foreign or
domestic base. They may be public or
privately owned. An investor’s expecta-
tion of return on a project varies accord-
ing to the type of investor, the length
of its commitment, and their appetite
for risk, which will in turn
define the type of projects
in which they will invest.
Investors active in India
are diverse, including
government institutions,
banks, and companies op-
erating from both foreign
and domestic bases, either
held publicly or in private
ownership. Table 3 lists
the investor types active in
India at present.
It is also important
to highlight the role of
foreign governments
that provide financing to
component manufacturers
exporting abroad, notably
the Chinese and US administrations. This provision of
low interest rates assists with financing of RE equipment
for import into India, which is significant, as hardware
represents a large part of total project costs. It thus provides
an indirect subsidy to the Indian RE market.
Development banks play an important role in India.
Typically they use an investment strategy, which, while
commercial, also assumes a socioeconomic policy role
by prioritising one investment class over another, and by
providing investment at below-market rates. Globally,
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Figure 11
India: Annual Investment in New RE Plants by Technology
(2004 – 2013)
Source: (BNEF, 2014b)
Biofuels
Biomass & Waste
Small Hydro
Solar
Wind
Table 3
Types of Investor in RE Projects
Type of
Investor Category
Total
Registered
in India
Active in
Renewable
Sector
Commercial Banks
Equity Investors
Institutional Investors
Development Banks
Public Sector Banks 26 9
Private Sector Banks 30 6
Foreign Banks 37 –
Private Equity 51 16
Venture Capital 180 21
e.g., Insurance Funds,
State-owned, and bi-lateral and
multilateral institutions 24 11
Development financial institutions* 3 3
*DFIs include national level institutions IREDA, IFCI, SIDBI
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
U.S. Dollars (millions)
Source: CPI, 2012 Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 41
21 BNEF, 2013.
22 CPI, 2012.
23 Although experts have indicated that several lenders offer
13 – 14 year door-to-door tenor, stakeholders indicated these
loans are not readily available.
development bank investment in RE was more than USD
58 billion in 2011.
21
Newer forms of renewable energy investment, such as
crowd-funding, seen in North America and western Eu-
rope, whereby large numbers of small, private investors
club together to reach the scale necessary to take equity in
larger undertakings, are only starting to emerge in India,
with the recent entry of companies such as Sunfunder. The
potential to attract retail investors has been proven in these
more developed markets, although investment volumes are
small relative to the total. International examples of such
companies include Mosaic, active in the US solar market,
and Abundance, active in the UK wind and solar markets.
4.3. Finding Finance
It is important to remember that unless motivated less
than entirely financially, investors will choose among
investment options purely on the basis of their risk and re-
turn profiles. If one investment option is more attractive in
these terms than another, it will be chosen. In other words,
investment in RE is not viewed in isolation but as one op-
tion among many (mainly other infrastructure) investment
options that may be less or more attractive.
As matters stand, Indian renewable energy projects are
more difficult to finance than comparable infrastructure
investments outside the power sector, or in other electric-
ity markets. In common with the broader power sector, the
reason for this is uncertainty of payment by the key buyer
group, the Discoms. Such is the state of the latter’s finances,
coupled with the fact that they are likely to prioritise pay-
ment to their larger (i.e., conventional) suppliers, and a
common resistance to change, that investor confidence is
very low. The financial health of the Discom’s is covered in
Chapter 6 in more detail.
In the preparation of this report, stakeholders raised a
range of issues that may act to inflate financing costs. First,
underlying Indian interest rates are high, relative to other
more developed markets, as a result of India’s GDP growth
rate, high rate of inflation, competing investment needs,
and geopolitical risk. This has an impact across the entire
investment market, where there is stiff competition for
debt and a wide variety of infrastructure needs. However,
it should also be noted that electricity regulators account
for the high interest rates while establishing the tariffs to
ensure a reasonable return on equity (ROE).
Secondly, compounding the first factor, in the mind of
many investors solar and wind technologies still represent a
relatively new and unfamiliar investment class as compared
with conventional power or other infrastructure projects. RE
projects are perceived as riskier with more uncertain returns.
Thirdly, as a greater proportion of the overall cost occurs
upfront in an RE project (CAPEX and no fuel costs) relative
to a conventional power plant, the higher cost of financ-
ing has a disproportionately large impact. This difference
is compounded by the fact that the fuel costs of coal power
plants are subsidised.
4.3.1. Cost of Debt
The high cost of debt compared to other RE markets is
a dominant feature of RE project investment. It has been
found to raise the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of an
Indian project by as much as 24 to 32 percent
22
, compared
to the United States or European Union, for example. The
dominant reasons for this disparity are high interest rates,
a shortage of appropriate debt tenors, and a lack of non-
recourse debt.
Stakeholders indicated that the tenor (the duration of
lending) tends to be insufficient in India, typically up to eight
years. As an infrastructure investment, RE projects need lon-
ger-term debt, of ten years or more, which many stakeholders
told us is difficult to secure.
23
This mismatch means there is a
shortage of appropriate debt as investors seek out alternative
assets that fit better with their investment horizons.
The lack of non-recourse debt – lending purely against
a project’s future cash flows – may reduce the breadth of
financing approaches available to developers, who prefer
non-recourse financing as it limits their risk and allows
them to seek borrowing for future projects more freely than
if they were themselves liable for the debt. In addition there
is in India some debate as to whether non-recourse financ-
ing on paper really adds up to the same thing in practise.
4.3.2. Broader Market Challenges
It would be a mistake to overstate the importance of
cost-of-debt issues in the investment market, as other fac-
tors raised by stakeholders play important contributory
roles, as set out below.
Stakeholders gave somewhat conflicting messages on Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 42
the supply of debt, although overall it appears constrained
to some extent. One reason may be a sectoral limit set
by internal investment committees (or other bodies
responsible for oversight of an investor’s activities). Once
such sectoral limits are met, it may be that no further
investment can be allocated in that lending period unless
the risk profiles are favorable to investment.
This may be compounded by the inclusion of RE within
a broader “power” sector limit or even “infrastructure” cat-
egory, with the result that RE is crowded out. This may be
an issue worth investigating further.
In general, a project developer may prefer a fixed interest
rate on debt secured to finance a project. A variable rate
of interest may be problematic, if a subsequent increase
cannot be “passed through” to the customer. Stakehold-
ers clarified that variable rates are more common in India
than in more developed renewable energy markets, wherein
rates are frequently fixed.
For example, an RE project promoter who has borrowed
at a variable rate cannot pass on an increase in that rate to
the buyer of his electricity if his tariff is fixed, as is usually
the case in India. In contrast, it appears that conventional
power plants are increasingly able to pass on variable costs
to the buyer with whom they are contracted in a PPA, such
as variable fuel costs, and may therefore also be able to pass
on variable financing costs.
In passing, it is also worth noting that the bulk of debt
raised for RE projects is to cover CAPEX incurred upfront
(there are no fuel costs except for biomass projects). This
may make such projects more sensitive to changes in the
interest rate than fossil-fuel plants, which incur proportion-
ally lower costs at the outset, and are thus better able to
hedge interest rate volatility over the lifetime of the project.
Regulatory restrictions on flow of foreign capital can,
and as investment grows, will, hamper access to the Indian
market for foreign investors, making it less attractive than
more open markets. Policies such as capital controls, limits
on foreign debt, and interest rate ceilings are examples of
such restrictions.
Various foreign exchange issues have impact on project
finance. Currency volatility has created uncertainties for
investors. For example, in 2013, the Indian Rupee ranged
from Rs 53 to 68 to the USD. Possible knock-on effects are
various.
Firstly, in order to protect against currency volatility, an
investor can take out a form of protection against risk. This
hedging transfers some or all of the risk onto a third party
in return for a fee. However, as likely volatility increases, so
does the cost of hedging and therefore the cost of financing
projects.
Secondly, and related to the previous point, if debt is of
overseas origin, perhaps in USD so that repayments need
therefore to be in USD, then a weak Rupee buys fewer
dollars, and the investor receives a diminished return on in-
come from an Indian project than was expected at the time
the investment was made.
Finally, given weaknesses in the Indian supply chain for
RE technology, an RE project may require certain compo-
nents to be sourced from overseas. A weak Rupee, relative
to the currency of the country of origin of the component
in question, will have reduced buying power, serving to
increase the cost of that component.
4.4. Impact of Policy Mechanisms
Chapter 2 touches on the range of financial support
mechanisms that have been used in India, and may be used
in future. An important fact often overlooked is that the
type of mechanism used may have considerable impact on
investment patterns.
Investment, whether debt or equity, is injected into a
developer company or a specific project to be developed.
The Indian market features essentially four different types
of project developer, each of which tends to structure and
deliver projects in a different way, and to prefer a different
form of financial arrangement.
1. Manufacturers. A project is developed by the
manufacturer of the technology being deployed in that
project. To date, this approach has been particularly
common in the wind market, although more recently it
has emerged in the solar market. The balance sheet of
the manufacturer may be sufficiently strong to finance
the project to a large extent. This may reduce the cost
of the remaining capital to be borrowed. For example,
the leading Indian wind manufacturer, Suzlon, has
developed projects in this way, as has First Solar in the
solar PV market.
2. Discom. Historically, the majority of (conventional
and hydro) power plants have been built, owned, and
operated by State Electricity Boards, which also owned
the Discoms. Following the functional unbundling of
Discoms from Gencos, it is worth noting that the build-
own-operate approach has recently been considered in
Maharashtra with regard to large-scale solar projects.
3. Large consumers. Commonly known as Captive Power
Plants, investments are made by large consumers, mainly Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 43
for their own consumption, which retain a controlling
interest in the power plant. The plant itself may be at
some distance from the consumer, or alternatively co-
located, such as IT parks with PV plants located within
their landholding.
4. Independent Power Producer (IPP). The developer of
an IPP project operates independently of the manufacturer
of the technology, Discom, or large consumers. Many
IPPs specialise in a single technology. Typically, the IPP
is funded initially by an equity investment; it then raises
debt on a project-by-project basis. The proportion of
renewable power development in India developed under
the IPP model is increasing. Current IPP plans for wind
projects in India run to more than 24 GW.
To date, the type and nature of support mechanisms
provided by government has influenced the type of inves-
tor attracted to renewable projects. It appears that in some
cases one mechanism will appeal more to one than another,
and particular investor types will seek to exploit a particular
support mechanism to the full. Discussions with stakehold-
ers suggest that this has influence on the lobby messages pro-
jected to government: such messages may suggest that one
mechanism is inherently better than another, whereas in fact
it may simply suit one type of investor more than another.
The clearest example of this has been the vigorous discus-
sion of the relative merits of the AD and GBI mechanisms
that have in the past been offered concurrently (but exclu-
sively) by central government. AD allows an investor to offset
a higher proportion of project capital costs (i.e., at the begin-
ning of the project) against their overall tax liabilities in the
first year. AD was until recently higher (80 percent) for solar
projects than for comparable infrastructure projects. Previ-
ously the incentive was also offered to wind projects, but it
was withdrawn in April 2012 and reintroduced in 2014.
AD support proved particularly attractive to wealthy
private individuals, high net worths (HNW) and businesses
that could benefit from tax deductions and were also seek-
ing investment opportunities. Manufacturers with a site
already identified and their own hardware ready to deploy
can approach the HNW and offer a relatively risk-free op-
portunity to reduce his/her tax bill, while providing “green
credentials” at the same time.
In other words, the principal benefit to the HNW inves-
tor is the immediate and considerable reduction in tax
payable that year. In contrast, the GBI is a policy designed
to incentivise higher production by being directly linked
to the actual generation resulting from the power plant. As
a result this structure is likely to be of more interest to an
investor whose priority is a long-term return or who does
not have a large tax liability.
Developers are known to exploit perceived “siloes” in
government, opportunistically lobbying public bodies with
the power to provide particular support regimes according
to what is on offer from each – for example, simultaneously
lobbying MNRE to reinstate AD while arguing at SERC
hearings only for higher FITs.
Stakeholders have provided evidence of a backlash
within certain Discoms, which may refuse to sign new PPAs
with developers, as a consequence of what they perceive
to be unreasonable profits or windfalls to IPPs. This is
exacerbated by insufficient transparency around project
and financing costs. Indeed, stakeholders suggested that in
Maharashtra it is this perception that is driving the Discom
to develop projects itself.
Determining the combination of financial support mech-
anisms that will encourage the greatest investment volume,
and the highest and most economically efficient provision
of RE (as opposed to capacity) is a fundamental step in
the development of a stable, sustainable Indian renewable
energy market.
4.5. Building Volume
Present investment flows into Indian renewable energy,
like those of conventional power and transmission invest-
ment, are insufficient to meet India’s deployment targets. A
step change is therefore required to put investment flows
on a trajectory that can meet policy aspirations.
Achieving sufficient volume to achieve RE targets will
require a more strategic approach to encouraging renew-
able investment, and progression from the short-term, and
somewhat piecemeal policy approach, which stimulated
investment flows of up to USD 12.7 billion in 2011, but
has not sustained them.
International examples of rapid scale-up of investment
reveal what is possible. South African renewable energy
investment was 200 times greater in 2012 than 2011 levels.
Chinese investment in RE was comparable with that of India
in 2004, and yet by 2013 had vastly outstripped investment
in India (Figure 12).
Unpacking what lies beneath these increases in invest-
ment will never be absolutely conclusive; however, the
introduction of fundamental changes to regulatory systems
and market reforms is key.
In considering the attractiveness of India as a
destination for foreign investment in renewable energy, a Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 44
useful comparative tool might be the Renewable Energy
Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI) guide published
by EY.
24
RECAI is based on assessment of three drivers –
Macro, Energy Market, and Technology – each of which
summarises a set of scored indicators (Figure 13).
The most recent 2014 RECAI sees India in sixth place,
having been judged as showing signs of growth.
25
China
takes first place with strong support to solar companies
and directives that state-owned grid operators must buy all
available solar power.

4.6. Public Sector Roles in Financing
A more explicit division of roles between the public and
private sectors may help to deliver the dramatic increase in
investment needed. The exact level of investment required
Source: (Bloomberg New Energy Finance)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
74,000
59,200
44,400
29,600
14,800
0
2,296
3,631
6,331
15,050
23,512
37,323
41,768
60,532 61,121
60,321
U.S. Dollars (Millions)
China
India
Figure 12
Chinese and Indian RE Investment
(2004 – 2013)
RECAI
Technology-specific
drivers
Macro drivers
Macro stability Ease of doing business
Project attractiveness
(for each technology)
Strength of natural
resource
Investment climateEconomic stability
Political stability
Energy supply and demand
Cost and availability
of finance
Energy market
accessibility
Liquidity of
transactions market
Level of political support
Competitiveness of
renewables
Importance of
decarbonization
Power offtake
attractiveness
Technology maturity
Technology growth profile
Strength of local
supply chain
Power infrastructure
Ability to connect to
renewable energy
Prioritization of
renewables
Bankability of
renewables
Energy market
drivers
Figure 13
Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index (RECAI) Criteria
Source: EY RECAI, 2014
24 http://www.ey.com/UK/en/Industries/Cleantech/Renewable-
Energy-Country-Attractiveness-Index
25 EY RECAI, 2014.
new footnotes! Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 45
is difficult to quantify. In 2013 a Lawrence Berkeley
National Laboratory (LBNL) study modeled the need for
additional annual investment between 2013 and 2030 of
between USD 583 million under a modest scenario (RE as
40 percent of total energy needs) and as much as USD 744
million for the most aggressive (60 percent RE). Greenpeace
in Energy Revolution (2012) concluded that for RE to reach
97 percent of production would require annual investment
of USD 117 billion through to 2050.
Discussions suggest that the private sector will remain
the principal channel for financing. In contrast, stakehold-
ers heavily emphasised that the main role of the public sec-
tor, rather than direct finance, should be in smoothing that
channel, that is, providing a de-risked and more conducive
framework in which investors can operate, for example,
by shaping and regulating the electricity market to reduce
revenue uncertainties.
The historical role of the state in power sector infrastruc-
ture investment, as in many countries around the world,
may be changing, although this is unlikely to happen
quickly. The Indian state has played a key role in funding
and operating power plants, both at the national and state
level, through direct funding or indirect subsidies such as
low-cost financing or fuel.
Stakeholders suggest that in the future, the public role
should increasingly be to help the marketplace for renew-
ables to mature, so that larger and risk-averse investors are
attracted to it, such as the pension and insurance funds that
have become active in some markets in recent years.
If the role of the public sector does become to reduce
risk for private investors, then its main task would be to
address certain present “showstoppers.” Importantly, these
risks may result from the actions or inaction of government
itself. For example, sudden changes to policy are major
deterrents. Retroactive changes to tariffs or subsidies, as
seen for example in recent years in Spain, where tariffs for
RE were cut retroactively, can kill a market.
In addressing risk, the public sector will need the flex-
ibility and resources to react to new risks and constraints
(such as grid integration), which will emerge as renewable
energy markets evolve. The renewable energy market is not
static: technology costs fall; deployment will accelerate; the
cost of finance will fluctuate; and the public sector role will
need to respond accordingly (see Chapter 2).
4.6.1. Direct Financing of RE
There may be certain areas in which direct public financ-
ing may be of real value. It can help in the promotion of
demonstration/lighthouse projects that are deemed too
risky or expensive for the private sector. Examples may
include early stage concentrating solar power projects or
offshore wind development.
It may also be appropriate for the public sector on oc-
casion to serve as a “cornerstone” investor on projects in
which this will reduce the cost of capital and risk. This
type of involvement demands careful consideration and a
clear assessment of a market failure and need to act, or else
public sector involvement will amount to a special subsidy
to the private sector.
The current role of the Solar Energy Corporation of India
is an example of how the public sector may intervene. It
does this in the following ways:
1. Through provision of grant funding to marginal
projects as with the first phase of the third round of
the JNNSM;
2. By providing cheaper borrowing (relative to that
available on the commercial market) to solar projects
using GOI borrowing powers;
26
and
3. Taking on responsibility for honoring PPAs where
Discoms are unable to make timely payments.
A useful international example is that of Brazil, where
the Brazilian National Development Bank plays a role in of-
fering long-term loans at below-market rates (concessionary
rates) to high priority industries, including renewable en-
ergy. The bank does this by using the national government’s
borrowing powers and is financed through a payroll tax.
However, private sector stakeholders may be wary of
public sector involvement unless it is seen as fulfilling an
interim function early in the investment growth trajectory.
They may deem it as a threat to their own role in the mar-
ket, as the public sector is able to borrow at advantageous
interest rates below their own, and this was made apparent
in discussions with investors.
They may also feel that government involvement per se
is undesirable, given apparent perceptions that support for
RE is subject to political fashion. Instead, public sector in-
volvement can be phased out of the market as projects are
seen to establish themselves and no longer require support,
26 Some experts suggested that the government could take mez-
zanine financing debt, allowing other debt tranches to have
lower interest rates. Other experts felt mezzanine finance
would be too complicated and expensive for government to
take when scaling up investment, although it might be ap-
propriate for relatively small investments in new, higher-risk
technologies.
new footnote! Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 46
as in the same way private investment moves from equity
investment and is refinanced by pension or other long-term
funds as risks reduce and projects mature.
4.6.2. New Roles for the Indian Public Sector
Although stakeholder pressure to act on a number of
fronts is considerable, domestic public sector institutions
have had to date only a limited role in stimulating RE
investment. Stakeholders suggested a number of additional
possible roles:
1. Provide full or partial loan guarantees, underwriting
the repayment of loans taken out to develop a project.
As yet, examples of this approach exist only in the
energy efficiency sector, wherein both USAID and
the International Finance Corporation (IFC) have
initiatives in India. The IFC in conjunction with
the Department for International Development (UK
government) are planning to launch an initiative to
support the REC market.
2. Socialise the costs of new transmission and take
the risk of deploying new transmission lines before
the power plants they are to serve have been built,
passing on the costs to the consumer through bills).
There may be some reluctance to proceed with this
approach as utility bill increases are a politically
charged issue, although experiences in the United
States suggest that cost/benefit studies of line
additions can help prioritise and screen proposals,
often resulting – additionally – in lower bills owing to
access to cheaper power.
3. Assisting foreign investors in entering the Indian
market by assuming the currency risks associated with
investing in India. The GOI role might be twofold,
first in reducing or removing fees for sovereign
guarantees, typically in the range of 0.25 percent
to 2 percent, secondly in absorbing hedging costs,
which currently run three to seven percent. These
roles would have clear value to overseas investors,
who regard India as a risky investment destination,
but further work needs to be carried out to determine
whether it is the most efficient form of public support
and whether it damages domestic lending.
4. Help channel disparate finance streams in a more
targeted way. For example, IREDA might expand its
role in funneling all overseas aid and development
assistance into RE and transmission infrastructure
projects. In this respect it might also expand its efforts
in reducing interest rates to projects through the use
of funds from the National Clean Energy Fund, while
ensuring that these reductions are reflected in the bid.
5. Support the development of government-backed
special purpose vehicles, which take on some of the
development risks, both financial and non-financial,
from the RE developers. This might resemble the Solar
Park project at the state level in Gujarat, for example.
4.6.3. International Lending
International public sector investors are present in the
Indian renewable energy and infrastructure market. These
lenders are policy driven, with investment flowing in re-
sponse to the strategic priorities determined by the national
government. Lending is sometimes defined as “soft” or
“patient,” in that loans may be provided on more favorable
terms than those available commercially, being at lower
rates and over longer tenures. Involvement may come in
one of the following two ways:
1. Equity investments in developers, and subsequent
debt investments into their projects, designed to
catalyse market development. For example, the IFC
backing of NSL Renewable Power and Azure Power
Renewables.
2. Investment in essential transmission infrastructure
to address the key risk of adequate evacuation
infrastructure provision (see Chapter 7). Examples
include the Asian Development Bank’s USD 500
million investment in evacuation (connection)
infrastructure in western Rajasthan for the Bhadla
solar project, and the KfW Bankengruppe EUR 1
billion loan for “Green Energy Corridors” transmission
infrastructure.
In the future, there are several ways in which develop-
ment banks such as the World Bank could extend their
services to encourage further investment in renewables. The
crucial questions here are in what way can public funds be
used to attract the most investment, and what is necessary
to bring in commercial lenders. In considering these issues
stakeholders have suggested that:
• GOI could request a pooling of development bank
loans, so that a more significant and concerted
financing effort can be made to reach India’s RE goals.
• Banks should innovate and offer blended finance,
whereby public and private loans are mixed for
investment in renewable energy projects. This
blending allows the tenor of loans to be extended and
the interest rates reduced, while providing security to
the private investor through the subordination of the Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 47
public loans (i.e., the private funds are repaid first). In
this way there can be a multiplier effect in which the
public funds could attract from three to ten times the
volume of commercial finance.
4.6.4. Reducing Risks for Private Investors
The key role for the public sector, according to stake-
holders, is in reducing the risk that RE projects represent to
private investors. Reduced risk is the route to lower financ-
ing costs, which will attract more investment.
As highlighted in Figure 14, and developed further in
Chapters 5 and 6, respectively, the two principal areas of
risk that could be addressed by government at all levels are:
1. Those encountered when developing a project; and
2. Those relating to selling the electricity generated
by a built asset, at a price that covers the cost of
developing the project, servicing debt, and providing
adequate return.

4.7. Data Transparency
Before turning to those issues, however, it is worth high-
lighting a common problem. The estimation of risk and
return is based on data. The more numerous and reliable
those data, the easier is this task. The level of risk does not
necessarily deter investors – if the return is commensurate
– but uncertainty relating to those risks is a showstopper.
In other words, if the data are available, the necessary pre-
investment analysis can be performed, and a
decision made either way. But no decision can
be made without data.
Data transparency in particular is required in:
1. CAPEX. Requirements (the cost per MW
of a wind turbine, for example) have risen
in recent months. On its own, this will be a
deterrent. However, in many cases the increased
production of electricity from the larger turbines
causing this CAPEX increase may compensate
for it. In any case, it is the production cost
that will have bearing on what is reasonable to
demand in terms of production tariff. If these
data are not clear to investors, the uncertainty
will be a showstopper.
2. Capacity building. Improving the
awareness, knowledge, and understanding
of investors about RE to improve their
due diligence on the project proposals. To
support this technical assistance from central
government would help open the market to smaller-
scale banks without a dedicated in-house capability.
3. Sale price. Sale prices are negotiated bilaterally in
most cases on a project-by-project basis. This means
that the price will not be guaranteed with any degree
of certainty until the PPA is signed. Consequently
the investors will not wish to dedicate funds to
that project until that certainty is present. If price
discovery were easier, as is the case where electricity is
traded multilaterally in power exchanges, for example,
investors might be readier to commit earlier.
4.8. Summary
In order to achieve and sustain the necessary investment
flows for India to reach its RE potential, a change of ap-
proach is needed, with careful consideration given to the
future role of the public sector. At the same time, private
investment needs to find RE opportunities more attractive
for the long term in order to support future growth.
Project risk underpins the public/private relationship.
Investment risks are unlikely ever to be totally understood
and quantified. However, they may be transferred between
stakeholders, better understood, and more reasonably
priced, which will reduce financing costs and enable more
projects to be commissioned.
Policymakers at both central and state levels have acted
to support RE market growth since the 1990s. Although
Land
DISCOM Health
Open Access
Short-term markets
Integration issues
Permitting
Grid Connection
Performance
Curtailment
Markets designed
to accommodate
RE characteristics
Figure 14
Government Policies Can Ease
Project Development and Market Risks
Rapid scaling up of private sector investment
to meet deployment targets
Project development
risks managed Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 48
there have been successes, growth has not been smooth,
steady, or consistent. Notable are a tendency to short-
termism and a somewhat fuzzy division of responsibility
between state and national government. An appropri-
ate mix of support mechanisms to encourage investment
growth is needed, key issues being the level of support
provided, with specific longevity and certainty.
The Indian RE investment market is diverse, with
domestic and international participants, including state
and private banks, private equity firms, corporations, and
development banks. RE investment has been reported to be
more difficult and expensive than in the wider infrastruc-
ture sector. Reasons for this include the financial health of
Discoms, India’s underlying interest rates, perceptions of
technology risk, and the specific investment profile of RE
projects.
Stakeholders consistently emphasised that private sector
investment is essential, and that the role of the public sec-
tor should be to create a conducive environment for private
investment to flow and in funding essential infrastructure.
Balancing public and private sector roles will be a central
challenge for policymakers in the coming years. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 49
5. Project Development and Operational Risks
I
nvestment flows to where, for a given return, the risk
is least. Capital is blind: it will avoid RE if it is less
attractive than alternative investments. This chapter
highlights risks often encountered in the development
and operational phases of renewable power projects, which
deter capital.
Effective management of project development risk will
encourage the market to pull toward deployment targets as
listed in Chapter 1; to develop the RE industry outlined in
Chapter 3; and to build investment volumes as discussed in
Chapter 4.
Policymakers should understand the full extent to which
their actions can support (or undermine) the business case
for a specific project. Perhaps the greatest policy impact
will be the existence (or not) of a regulated premium tariff,
or some other financial mechanism; but an enabling project
development environment is also of the utmost importance.
The business case for a renewable power plant depends
on a financial appraisal. During this, investors seek to de -
termine the risk profile represented by the project, consid-
ering issues such as resource assessment, technology selec-
tion, construction process and timetable, and O&M plans.
The investor needs to be sure that the project developer is
able to secure rights and access to land, that a grid connec-
Identify
1 to 6 Months2 to 8 Years1 to 3 Months6 to 12 Months12 to 24 Months
DevelopBidFinancial
Closure
Deliver
■ Resource
■ Land
■ Grid
■ Fatal flaw
■ Competitors
■ Assessment
committee
■ Construct
■ Connect
■ Start generation
■ Complete permitting
■ Due Diligence
■ Agree financing
and equity terms
■ Binding off ers
■ PPA Signed
■ Engage LO and secure
land and servitudes
■ Environmental studies
■ Bird and bat monitoring
■ Resource assessment
■ Grid assessment
■ Start permitting
■ Investors
■ EPC tender
■ SEC/ED
Figure 15
Wind Energy Project Development From the Developer’s Perspective in South Africa
Source: (IEA, 2014b)
tion will be completed in time, that permits will be secured
on schedule, and that local stakeholders with influence
over the project are on board. Until such issues and others
are addressed, it is unlikely that any financial commitment
on the part of an investor will be forthcoming.
Figure 15 illustrates a generalised wind energy devel-
opment process in South Africa. It sets out the timeline
for the development process, divided into five key stages:
site identification, project development, bidding, financial
closure, and delivery. Although this is merely an illustration
from one country, it highlights a point common in all ge-
ographies: that although investors are identified early on in
the process (Step 2), they will only be amenable to financial
close (Step 4) once the issues discussed in this chapter have
been addressed. This is particularly the case with regard to
the acquisition of land to site the power plant.
Stakeholders representing a wide range of develop-
ers, both manufacturers and independent, domestic and
international, and investors, highlighted their key concerns,
although there may be others that did not arise in discus-
sions. Table 4 provides a list of potential barriers encoun-
tered in the international experience of wind power, along
with a number of solution options.
■ Collate bid
■ Finalize
“schedule 9”
agreements
■ Non-binding
agreements
■ Bid bonds Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 50
5.1. Siting and Access
After the energy resource itself, which for solar and
wind resources is geographically constrained, respectively,
to a lesser and greater area in India, the land on which the
power plant will be built is perhaps the most fundamental
aspect of project development. Adequate space is a criti-
cal requirement of wind and solar projects, which require
a greater surface area per MW than conventional power
plants burning fuels with high energy density. For example,
five acres per MW of land is usual for solar PV modules.
Meeting wind deployment targets will mean approxi-
mately 10,000 additional turbines will be installed under
the 12th Five Year Plan. Most of the installed wind power
in India is concentrated in two areas: Tamil Nadu, Karnata-
ka, and Andhra Pradesh in the south and the western states
of Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. The most heavily
developed area is a corridor of high wind speed land run-
ning west to east from Tamil Nadu into Karnataka.
There are many outstanding issues relating to land ac-
quisition, and it is a foregone conclusion of many develop-
ers that the new “Right to Fair Compensation and Transpar-
ency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation and Resettlement
Act” will make land acquisition more difficult and/or costly
for the industry. This is not only the case in the building of
plants but in the pre-development phase also: prior to the
building of a wind power plant, anemometry masts are set
up two to three years ahead, to measure the wind resource.
Stakeholders have stated often that the best sites have
already been developed. However, discussions suggest that
suitable sites both for wind and solar deployment are not in
short supply per se, although they may be hard to secure.
Indeed, many of the best sites in Tamil Nadu, for ex-
ample, have been developed or “banked” for development
at a later date. The Centre for Science and Environment
(CSE) therefore sees this factor among others leading to
the deployment of wind in hitherto undeveloped areas of
some states. In Gujarat, in contrast, which contains a high
proportion of arid or barren land, land availability is not
generally considered to be tight.
Land may be publicly owned (“revenue” land) or it may
be privately held, which includes much of the 142 million
hectares of agricultural land in the country. Forestry land,
which may be publicly or privately held and covers 67
million hectares, may not be sold but can be leased for suf-
ficiently long periods.
Table 4
International Experiences of Barriers to the Development of Wind Power Projects
Barrier
Inaccurate or
inaccessible meso-scale
data on the strength
and distribution of wind
resources
Obstacles to wind plant
siting
Connection to grid is
constrained
Details
• Absence of public data on energy content
of wind resource
• Absence of data on resource quality (e.g.,
climatic conditions, local conditions)
• Data on land/seabed topography and
geology are inaccurate or unavailable
• Desirable sites are inaccessible to
construction and maintenance teams
• Transmission/distribution grid owner may
not wish to facilitate connection
• Connection fee may be excessive
• Point of connection may be disputed
between developer and transmission owner
• Long distance between potential site and
grid node a barrier owing to cost or existing
rights of way
Solution Options
• Develop or procure national wind atlas and
make it publicly available
• Establish national platform for anonymous
data sharing, to improve access to and
accuracy of wind data
• Undertake geological and topographical
survey in priority areas
• Support extension of grid into targeted wind
development areas
• Ensure interface with local government on
infrastructure planning
• Encourage sharing of weather data
• Regulate monopoly control to allow access for
Independent Power Producers
• Regulate system operators to ensure rates are
cost-based
• Distinguish connection costs from grid
reinforcement costs and assign appropriately Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 51
Public and private ownership present different challeng-
es to the developer. Some developer stakeholders suggested
that privately owned land is more attractive than revenue
land, although land prices, for example, vary widely.
Others have pointed out that historical allocations of
land ownership mean that ridge land tends to be publicly
owned, whereas valley land tends to be in private owner-
ship. This can lead to problems of accessing the ridge land
where the wind resource may be strongest, through mul-
tiple private ownerships in the valley.
5.1.1. Land Classification Effects
Aside from the energy resource – biomass, wind speed,
insolation, and so forth – renewable power plants have
specific needs. Access is essential in all cases, of course.
The underlying geology will be important for larger plant,
and orientation will be important for solar PV plants. Aside
from these fundamentals, land may be deemed unusable for
RE owing to competing, sometimes historical, uses.
Following Independence, all land in India was classified
under one of the following rubrics, and this classification
persists to the present day
26
:
1. Forests;
2. Area under non-agricultural uses;
3. Barren and uncultivable land;
4. Permanent pastures and other grazing land;
5. Land under miscellaneous tree crops;
6. Cultivable waste land;
7. Fallow land other than currently fallow land;
8. Currently fallow land; and
9. Net area sown.
At first glance, some of these rubrics appear unsuitable
for RE development. However, in many cases renewable
power plants can coexist with other land uses, such as
cropping and livestock.
In addition, stakeholders reported that land may not
actually resemble its classification. Most commonly,
forested land, which accounts for 23 percent of classified
land may not always be forested, but instead low scrub, for
example, or even barren. Although classification is needed
in order to protect valuable ecology, for example, it may be
necessary to update the classification of land in some areas
to facilitate deployment of renewables.
Aside from forestry, possible land-use clashes between
intended RE use and existing usages include national
parks, agriculture, and mineral extraction. Conflicts may
be exacerbated by an absence of due process governing
permitting, acquisitions, and environmental impact, for
example, whereas local populations and developers come
into conflict over different issues in different locations.
Examples of such conflicts are evident in the northern
part of the Western Ghats in Maharashtra, where the devel-
opment of a wind project is reported to have had negative
impacts on the ecology of the area. This has resulted from
the construction of access roads and the consequent heavy
erosion and landslides during and after the monsoon. In
this example, no EIA was undertaken and the developer is
reported to have ignored forest classification and made no
effort to reinstate hillsides.
27
5.1.2. Land Acquisition
Setting aside the issue of cost for the moment, simply the
ability to acquire land is critical to the success of a project.
Non-availability of land is a major cause of delays to infra-
structure projects, and these delays can add significantly to
the project cost to be ultimately borne by electricity con-
sumers.
Stakeholders involved in the road-mapping process
showed a marked preference for the straightforward pur-
chase of private land. Although this is relatively straightfor -
ward, relative to securing development rights in publicly
owned land, it is not without its difficulties.
One of these has been limited regulation and oversight,
resulting in potentially unfair treatment of the selling
landowner(s). Like the power sector, land in India – with
the important exception of agricultural land – is a con-
current issue. Forested land, for example, is subject to
both central and state oversight, and it appears that some
important issues relating to the availability of land, and fair
compensation for it, are falling between these two stools.
For example, there is evidence that local and tribal popula-
tions in forests are being insufficiently compensated for the
loss of their land, which may be privately owned or subject
to public regulation.
Wind and solar power projects are subject to local
laws and must get approval from the rural local bodies.
Panchayati Raj Institutions (PRI) – rural local governance
bodies – are empowered to make decisions on rural
clearances for development of projects. Under the
Panchayati Act, the PRIs (or Gram Sabha at the village
level) must be consulted by the project developer prior to
26 According to the Data Book 2011 of the Indian Agricultural
Statistics Research Institute, classified land makes up 93
percent of India’s total land area.
27 CSE, 2013. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 52
establishing a project in their jurisdiction. This is intended
to give villagers/locals the right to raise their concerns.
The CSE reports, for example, that the rights of tribal
communities living in protected land are being overlooked,
including in forested areas. The rights of tribal communities
living in forest areas are protected under the Recognition
of Forest Rights Act of 2006, which recognises the rights
of tribal populations over forests for their livelihood. This
covers some 1.8 million hectares of land, much of which
lies in key development states, including Andhra Pradesh,
Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra.
However, in 2013, a circular excluded linear projects
such as the roads and transmission lines needed for any
power project passing through such lands from the need
for approval.
28
For example, a national platform of tribal
and forest dwellers’ organisations in ten states has stated
that the Recognition of Forest Rights Act of 2006 has been
routinely ignored by the Forest Advisory Committee when
recommending forest clearances.
There have been allegations against specific developers
that they have acquired and otherwise encroached upon
tribal land in Kerala to lay substantial roads to transport
blades and other components to the project site, without
compensation to tribal communities living in the vicinity
and paying taxes for that privilege, despite that the Kerala
Restriction on Transfer by and Restoration of Lands to
Scheduled Tribes Act, 1999, prohibits this.
Stakeholders highlighted the need for state governments,
which take precedence over central government in land-use
issues, to shore up the rights of local populations, while
also clarifying what land is available for development, and
the circumstances under which this is possible.
5.1.3. Land Costs
The cost of land may range from 2 percent to more than
50 percent of total project costs for infrastructure projects
generally. However, the CERC requires that for power proj-
ects, the land component should comprise no more than
three percent of CAPEX, which is thought to be a way of
ensuring prices remain competitive and that land cost does
not dominate CAPEX. But this can be restrictive in states
where land prices are high. For example, the cost of barren
land – the only land deemed suitable in Haryana for solar
PV projects – is reportedly five times the cost of equivalent
land in Rajasthan.
The Land Acquisition Act (LAA) that came into force
at the beginning of 2014 (replacing the previous LAA of
1894) aims to reinforce the rights of (smaller) landowners
and local populations, whose land may be brought into
public use for purposes of industrialisation, development
of essential infrastructural facilities, and urbanisation. The
LAA has significant repercussions for RE power plant devel-
opers, particularly in terms of the cost of land.
The law requires a social impact study to be made prior
to land transactions in order to ensure minimised distur-
bance to the owners of the land and other affected families;
and it includes a focus on the adequacy of compensation
to land owners, as well as rehabilitation and resettlement
benefits.
Stakeholders pointed out that the LAA has tried to solve
the problem of fair valuation of land that is to be purchased
for infrastructure projects. It requires that compensation for
land in rural and urban areas should amount to four times
and two times the market rate, respectively. Stakeholders
felt that the reasons for these multiples are unclear, but this
may reflect the difficulty of valuing non-economic value
associated with land that may have pertained to a family or
community for many generations.
Stakeholders also pointed out that the LAA requires that
80 percent of landowners impacted by a given development
give their approval before a sale can be made. Such issues
may slow development and add to costs.
A fair price for land is of course essential, as is the avail-
ability of land in the timeframe of present RE deployment
targets. It may be that a national land register maintained
by an empowered regulator, in close collaboration with
states’ governments, could help resolve such complications.
Even if private lands are available, and at an acceptable
price, regulation requires that if it is classified as agricul-
tural land, an application must be made to convert it to
non-agricultural status, which stakeholders reported to be
a time-consuming process. In Karnataka, for example, not
only may agricultural land not be bought by a person/entity
with revenue in excess of INR 200,000 pa, but the process
of conversion to non-agricultural use takes two years.
5.1.4. Revenue Lands
Different states have different practises. For example, in
Bihar, developers of solar PV are unable to access public
lands, and have no assurance that it will be available in
future. In consequence, land must be procured from private
parties. Given the relatively high population density in
Bihar, this has significant cost implications.
28 CSE, 2013. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 53
Madhya Pradesh has a large barren land area. The state
government acquires land and provides user-rights to de-
velopers for a 25-year period (i.e., aligned with RE project
lifetimes). If there are competing parties, the land is allocated
to projects with the greater electricity production potential.
Madhya Pradesh also has a high potential for development
on tribal lands. The state government has developed a policy,
expected to be approved soon, that will give user-rights to
wind developers on a mutual consent basis, under which the
developer pays for the use of the land and provides 20 days
of Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee
Act (MNREGA) wages per month to the owner, who will also
be allowed to use adjacent, vacant land.
Public land can potentially be “allotted” to developers,
which is not possible with private land, of course. This
offers an opportunity to embrace a “zoning” approach to
development of wind power, with the potential benefits
highlighted in Chapter 7. Zoning may be an efficient way of
ensuring that RE plants are built where the resource is best,
as well as of ensuring that sufficient land is made available.
Zoning can also factor in the location of grid assets, the
third fundamental planning factor for siting a power plant.
So far a zoned approach has been used only for the
Gujarat Solar Park programme, with some success. Zoning
was strongly supported by many stakeholders. Moreover,
these highlighted that a competitive bidding process can be
used. This would aid (electricity) price discovery, as well as
serving to level the playing field between developers with
and without “banked” land assets.
Stakeholders also highlighted that allocation processes
should have three key characteristics:
1. Fairness to all stakeholders;
2. Reasonable duration, sufficient for a 25-year RE
project lifespan, and taking into account cost
efficiencies of repowering projects in due course; and
3. Processes that are sufficiently progressive to allow for
the specificities of RE development.
5.1.5. Land-banking
During the course of stakeholder discussions, it was
heard many times that certain developers, including those
who have been active for longer and involved in manufac-
turing of turbines also, have acquired the ownership of, or
user-rights to, many high-resource sites. Although this in
and of itself may just show forward-thinking, it is also the
case that often these sites are held undeveloped for long
periods, delaying deployment of RE.
Land banking puts developers without land at a disad-
vantage to those who have already bought private land,
who can bid in competitive tenders at a lower price than
those for whom the land cost will represent upfront CA-
PEX. Alternatively, it may drive off competition, thus pro-
viding an opportunity for inflated bids.
In Karnataka, for example, much of the revenue land has
been banked, and may be held without development for
as long as seven or eight years. Furthermore, the develop-
ers may have acquired the user-rights for only a few MW,
whereas the allotted area could support very much more
than that. One senior stakeholder suggested that this might
be 100 times the amount.
Policy changes in 2012 have eased this problem, but
apply only to new allotments. As a result, much land
remains locked up. It was suggested that these developers
should build on these sites by a specified date or have their
user-rights revoked. This would be similar to an approach
recently announced in the United Kingdom with regard to
housing development.
The new policy allows for a facilitation letter of 12
months’ duration, with the opportunity to extend for six
months. Referred to as “buying a footprint,” it was stated –
importantly – that banks would finance on this basis.
5.2. Environmental Aspects
Potential development sites may be in remote and
environmentally sensitive areas, where few data exist as to
sensitive ecosystems, and the likely impact on them of de-
velopment. Wind power projects are not covered under the
2006 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) notification
and are therefore exempt from that requirement to perform
an EIA; yet 45 percent of installed wind development is in
environmentally sensitive forest areas.
State Pollution Control Boards are the relevant author-
ity in the granting of Consent to Establish and Consent to
Operate permits to industrial units, including renewable
power plants. The Consent to Operate permit is usually
provided for a period of five years and routinely extended if
there are no complaints lodged.
Ministry of Environment and Forests guidelines ex-
ist, however, for example, under the Forestry Act. These
provide guidelines for the award of clearances for wind
power projects, but the CSE reports that these are routinely
bypassed with only superficial attendance to their require-
ments.
On the other hand, there is the position of the developer,
who is faced with regulations that vary from state to state, Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 54
and the knowledge that if regulations can be bypassed there
is every likelihood that the competition will do so and thus
be able to complete a project faster and at less cost than if it
had complied.
The obligation to perform an EIA is likely to arise as de-
ployment of RE accelerates. The impact of several hundred
GW of new capacity needs to be minimised. Stakeholders
also pointed out that soon companies in this sector will
have to comply with Corporate Social Responsibility regu-
lations under the recent Companies Act enacted in August
2013.
The zoning approach highlighted above for efficient allo-
cation of land would also be of benefit from both environ-
mental and commercial perspectives. Stakeholders pointed
out that a strategic approach to environmental assessment
over entire zones could be superior to a solely project-
based EIA process, whereas the subsequent local EIA would
be less onerous for project developers.
5.3. Grid Connection
Connection is a critical milestone in the development
schedule. Reliable knowledge of the lead-time to achieve
it is essential. Developers have reported that connection to
the Interstate Transmission System (ISTS) could take three
years to complete, whereas intrastate lead-times are closer
to one year, although processes and schedules differ from
state to state. This has implications for speed of RE de-
ployment and potentially increased finance risk leading to
higher costs.
The Green Corridors Report
29
appears to corroborate
this lead-time issue:
“…development of connectivity transmission system,
establishment of RE Pooling station as well as transmission
system strengthening in STU network for RE absorption,
takes considerable time which is significantly more than the
generation gestation period. In addition, transmission system
strengthening works at ISTS level, being developed through
competitive tariff based bidding, also requires about 3-4 years
time. In view of the above, efforts should be made for faster
implementation of the associated transmission works for RE,
avoiding generation bottleneck.”
The 2010 Grid Code lays out nondiscriminatory connec-
tion arrangements that apply to power plants connecting to
the ISTS. It does not specify how the cost burden of such a
connection is allocated, which is reportedly the responsibil-
ity of the developer.
The Electricity Act of 2003 stipulates that, intrastate, the
respective state transmission utility (STU) or the Discom is
responsible and is to pay for the reinforcement of the grid
infrastructure to manage the evacuation of electricity from
renewable power plants. It is also responsible for extend-
ing the grid up to the wind farm pooling station. However,
given the financial health of Discoms and some STUs, this
may not be the case in practise, with states adopting a
number of ad hoc arrangements for grid connection).
30
Experiences in Gujarat have revealed an alternative ap-
proach to increasing certainty as to connection lead-time.
A large number of solar PV power plants simultaneously
under development represented too great a burden on the
resources of the STU, which, although willing to provide
the connections required, would have needed several years
to complete them all. The solution arrived at was for the
STU to provide all the necessary equipment for connection,
while the developers provided the manpower, as well as
the finances (which would in any case have been theirs to
cover). The STU and developers alike felt that this was an
effective and mutually beneficial arrangement.
The Gujarat Solar Park, in contrast, did not need to
resort to this fallback arrangement. A zoning approach can
help to provide connection lead-time certainty, if grid own-
ers (STU/Discoms) receive a clear signal as to the number
and location of lines, well in advance of the construction of
the power plants.
The CERC has regulated that renewable power plants
greater than 50 MW may connect to the ISTS, but no plant
has yet taken advantage of the benefits this may afford in
terms of reduced congestion at the higher-voltage grid.
This may be because development and sale frameworks
are local. It may also be because, under the Point of
Connection transmission charging system (on a MW basis),
charges to wind projects may be too onerous, as their
capacity factors are lower than conventional plants. Unlike
present day solar, wind has no free or special dispensation
on transmission charges. Furthermore, PGCIL substations
are often far from wind farms, resulting in high connection
costs to the developer. Although CERC regulations require
PGCIL to plan and build such interconnections, this is
opposed by PGCIL.
29 PGCIL 2012.
30 GWEC, 2012. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 55
5.4. Performance Risk
Risk to the investor does not cease with the successful
commissioning of the power plant. There are a number of
performance risks, which will need to be managed ahead,
during the project-planning phase. Performance is simple
to measure: Does the power plant sell the projected amount
of electricity?
This will be a function of a number of parameters,
including (1) that the energy resource will be in reality as
indicated in the resource assessment, (2) that the technol-
ogy will perform as expected, and (3) that the electricity
produced will not be curtailed. The first two aspects, at
least in theory, are under the complete control of the power
plant developer. The third risk element, curtailment, is
much harder to predict or monetise.
5.4.1. Resource Risk
The longer the period over which resource data are gath-
ered, the more likely it is that it will cover and account for
periods of unusual weather, and the more likely it will be
therefore to provide an accurate picture of average annual
output, as well as seasonal and potentially diurnal varia-
tions in that output.
Aside from the value this represents in terms of integrat-
ing that electricity, and therefore of reducing the likelihood
of curtailment, a deep knowledge of the resource represents
certainty of revenue to the investor.
Investment grade resource data represent a major
stepping-stone to streamlined and accelerated RE deploy-
ment. Meso-scale resource data, using cells of two to ten ki-
lometers squared, if of sufficient quality, provide a valuable
indication of where the best sites are located.
Publicly available meso-scale wind maps of India are not
yet available, but even these would not provide sufficiently
precise data on the wind resource. They may, however,
be useful in establishing where to site wind measurement
masts bearing anemometers to physically measure wind
speed and direction, among other factors. Two or three
years of data are usually considered necessary to give a
clear idea of the resource.
Resource risk is common to all development markets for
wind power. In every country there will be areas of com-
plex terrain that are more difficult to model, even with real
data, than others. Stakeholders did not raise India-specific
concerns.
Stakeholders did, however, highlight the following po-
tential roles for the GOI and/or state governments, possibly
in collaboration with industry groupings:
• In making resource data publicly available, as it is
collected;
• In carrying out meso-scale wind resource mapping
of areas with a high wind resource revealed through
macro-scale mapping (approximately 50- to 200-km
cells);
• In financing the erection of anemometry masts for
wind measurements in probable deployment areas;
and
• In leading the assessment of offshore wind resources.
These roles would fit well with the overall picture
emerging in the roadmap process of the key government
role as provider of investor security for private investment
in renewable power plants, rather than leading financing
itself. For example, greater and more accurate data sets
made available to the industry as a whole would facilitate
Will project
perform as
planned?
Resource
risk
Technology
risk
Curtailment
risk
Figure 16
Aspects of Performance Risk
Raised by Stakeholders
Investors require guarantees that output targets will
be met with a certain probability. In the planning and
financing stage of a wind farm project, a risk assessment
is required, quantifying all risks related to the wind farm
financing. This technical due diligence results in a predic-
tion of average annual energy production.
This prediction is known as the P50, meaning that prob-
ability of reaching a higher or lower annual energy produc-
tion is 50:50. P75 and P90 represent a probability of meet-
ing annual energy production of 75 percent and 90 percent,
respectively. Both the latter values are widely used by banks
and investors as a base in their financing decisions, the lat-
ter representing more stringent requirements. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 56
the planning of larger groups of power plants, representing
a more attractive proposition to major investors.
5.4.2. Technology Risk
Technology risk represents the probability that the
technology deployed – for example, the solar PV module,
the wind turbine, the biogas digester – will not perform as
desired. It can be quantified in terms of expected availabil-
ity to operate. Availability represents the amount of time a
wind turbine, for example, is expected to be available for
operation (i.e., not presently stopped for maintenance or
fault).
The international experience shows the availability of
modern wind turbines to be approximately 98 percent,
whereas that of solar PV plants approaches 100 percent.
Most thermal power plants have availabilities of 70 to 90
percent, the lower range being associated with older plants
with longer downtime for maintenance.
Some stakeholders in the finance sector revealed consid-
erable mistrust of RE technology, which they perceive to be
less mature and less reliable than conventional technolo-
gies. Examples include wind turbine rotors and solar PV
module durability in extreme heat.
Condition monitoring and preventive action-based ap-
proaches have addressed many of these issues elsewhere,
and are now being tried in India. For example, there have
been press reports of collaboration between IBM and Bharat
Light and Power in such initiatives.
31

Serious failures do occur. The international experience
reveals common weak spots in wind power technology to
be gearbox failure and blade loss. Stakeholders suggested
that a database containing anonymous data of failure rates
and causes of failure would be of value to the industry as a
whole in the mitigation of technology risk and the reassur-
ance of investors.
5.4.3. Curtailment Risk
The risk of curtailment is the risk that electricity, which
could otherwise be generated, will not be. This will be for
one of two reasons: (1) that the grid into which it would
feed is congested, and cannot carry any more electricity, or
(2) that there is no buyer for the electricity.
Curtailment per se is not an evil. A small percentage of
curtailment, occurring during the windiest hours of the
year, may be cheaper than the cost of a line that can carry
every last unit of output into the grid. But this calculation
will be worked into the calculation of project cash flows.
However, above a certain level, curtailment can seriously af-
31 See, for example: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-
11-19/bharat-light-partners-ibm-to-boost-india-wind-farm-
output.html.
fect project revenues. For example, plant operators in Tamil
Nadu, with the highest share of wind energy in the country,
report significant curtailment, which has resulted in a drop-
off in investment in new plants in the state.
Different sets of stakeholders asserted that congestion
is occurring at different levels, some locally to the power
plant pooling station, others that congestion was a problem
in the ISTS (Figure 17).
Interestingly, stakeholders were often confused or un-
clear as to the reason for curtailment: whether physical,
relating to the physical congestion of a line to carry electric-
ity; administrative, relating to rights to use a line; or eco-
nomic, relating to a surplus in the market. Although India
has a peak electricity deficit, there are times – for example,
at night, when wind output is up and demand down –
when there is a local surplus. Although RE in theory has
priority access to the grid in such situations, in reality it
may not be possible or economic to back down conven-
tional power plants to the extent that all the wind energy
can be accepted, so it is the wind plant that is curtailed.
Possible
causes of
curtailment
Figure 17
Possible Causes of Curtailment
Suggested by Stakeholders
This poses the question why the electricity could not be
sold further afield, where there may be demand. This again
may be because the ISTS is congested, or it may be that
there are market reasons why these power plants may not
sell their electricity further afield. For example, they may
not be able to achieve an OA contract with buyers outside
the state owing to administrative complications or cost (see
Chapter 6).
Physical:
grid
congestion
Administrative:
transmission or
Open Access
issues
Economic:
market surplus
or unwilling
buyers
Incomplete
information Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 57
There is a total absence of transparency as to curtail-
ment volumes in India. Utilities buying the electricity do
not wish to reveal their data, nor do those selling it. How-
ever, until data are available, the extent of the problem will
remain unclear, and the causes of it likewise. There is an
urgent need for analysis of the issue to identify where con-
gestion is occurring.
It is commonly said, for example, that the ISTS is seri-
ously congested, but actual data are not available, and at
least one set of stakeholders pointed out that this may not
be the case. If so, this will have major implications for
the validity of such studies as the Green Corridor Report,
which is predicated on an existing and urgent need for
enhancing interstate transmission.
5.5. Summary
The development and operational phases of a project
both carry considerable risk. Reducing these risks, and
making the level of risk more certain, will increase investor
appetite.
Overall, there is a need to streamline, accelerate, and
standardise the acquisition of permits, clearances, and other
administrative hurdles that the developer must cross. These
relate particularly to land acquisition and environmental
permitting. Although it is vital that social and environ-
mental values are upheld, excessively long processes will
jeopardise the country’s ability to accelerate the deployment
of renewable power plants and exit its peak power deficit
situation.
Development in afforested areas is a concurrent issue;
agricultural land is a state issue. Both are seen as key de-
velopment areas, alongside barren and other land classifi-
cations. Faster, more sensitive development in both land
types could be made possible with a standardised proce-
dure for acquiring sites and the necessary clearances for
projects of a given size. Such an approach might be taken
to both private and public land.
Renewable power plants compete with a number of
other land-uses. An integrated mapping approach might be
the right approach to managing trade-offs among such vital
activities as agriculture, forestry, ecology protection, miner-
al extraction, power production, and areas or urbanisation.
A layered approach to mapping could also factor in the
location of the power grid and renewable energy resources.
This could then be made available publicly, and provisions
made to ensure that within identified areas, every priority
would be given to enabling a conducive investment envi-
ronment and strategic environmental assessment.
Such an approach would help to manage resource risk,
as well as the risk for curtailment of power plants result-
ing from inadequate grid infrastructure. This ties in closely
with the zoning approach discussed in more detail in Chap-
ter 7.
It is essential, however, that data be acquired and under-
standing built up of exactly where and why congestion in
the grid is occurring and what may be done to alleviate it. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 58
6. Buying Renewable Electricity
T
he installation of new renewable power plants is
only part of a successful strategy. Willing buyers
of the electricity they generate must be in place
when they are ready to begin operation. And
investors will not invest in such assets if electricity off-take
is not satisfactorily secure.
The design of an electricity market greatly influences the
degree of risk to investors in both power plants and trans-
mission systems. The greater the certainty that the electric-
ity generated by a new asset will find a buyer, the more
certain are project cash-flows, and the more attractive such
projects are to investors. This is discussed in more detail in
Chapter 4.
Four routes to market exist for Indian electricity, al-
though as this chapter will explore, not all are yet navigable
for renewables.
Electricity may be:
1. Sold to a Discom through a regulated, long-term PPA;
2. Sold directly to a consumer through an unregulated
OA contract on various timescales;
3. Sold in the short-term market, either “over-the-
counter” (directly between two parties) or via one of
the two national power exchanges; or
4. Both generated and consumed by the same party,
known as “captive power.”
32
Discoms are by far the largest purchaser of electric-
ity, including that from renewable energy sources (RES).
However, as many stakeholders pointed out, Discoms are
often hard-pressed, both in terms of financial liquidity and
resources generally, and may not be able to fulfill this role
reliably.
RES are not evenly spread about the country. The con-
sequent importance of interstate trade of electricity arose
often therefore in discussions with stakeholders. Electricity
buyers in RES-poor states may be relatively less willing to
purchase Renewable Electricity Certificates (RECs) than
actual (renewable) electricity. RECs are perceived often to
be a secondary priority.
Meanwhile, Discoms in RES-rich states indicated that
they would support additional RE deployment (includ-
ing for interstate sale) only if they are assured of sufficient
willing buyers, and if the impact on their grid of additional
RE capacity, particularly in terms of system balancing, is ad-
dressed.
The role of institutions (Figure 18) at the centre and in
the states, both executive and regulatory, will be critical in
enabling the interstate trade of electricity. This includes the
Discoms, publicly owned Gencos, the state government,
and the SERC.
State
goverment:
major
owners
Discoms:
key buyer(s)
Gencos:
major
vendors
State and
national
regulators:
price arbiters
Electricity
Market
Figure 18
Public Bodies Engaged in
the Electricity Market
6.1. Power Sector Asset Ownership
Until the unbundling of vertically integrated utilities into
distinct transmission, generation, and distribution arms
(within a common, state-owned, holding company), and the
establishment of independent regulators in the late 1990s and
32 Captive power plant owners may be able to sell a proportion
of the electricity they generate. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 59
early 2000s, the power sector was publicly owned and largely
operated by the states through State Electricity Boards.
These State Electricity Boards owned the majority of
power plants, whereas the remainder was owned by the
central government. However, over the last 20 years, pri-
vate ownership has grown and now accounts for almost a
third of installed capacity. Nevertheless, the central govern-
ment continues to own the fuel that feeds – at least partially
– those power plants, as well as the means to move it about
the country by rail, from the mine to the power station.
State governments continue to own and operate the
Discoms, the intrastate transmission companies (Transco),
and state LDCs, whereas the central government owns and
operates the interstate Transcos and national/regional LDCs.
Almost all RE power plants have been built and are
owned privately. It is generally expected that private owner-
ship of the power sector will continue.
The private sector is increasingly involved in the import
of coal and natural gas, but centrally owned Coal India is
the main importer. Typically imports are more expensive
than the domestic coal with which it is pooled to temper
the final coal price to generators.
Captive power plants are owned by large consumers
with sufficiently large electricity requirements to make it
economical to produce their own. There are two types:
where the consumer has the power plant installed on its
premises (behind-the-meter), and where the consumer is
located separately from the power plant.
6.2. Trading
Power procurement is mainly done through long-term
PPAs between electricity buyers and sellers, whereas a small
proportion of wholesale electricity is traded short-term.
PPAs may be signed over various time frames: long-
term (years to decades), mid-term (months to years), and
short-term (days to months). Most commonly, the seller is
a publicly owned Genco (either centrally or at state level),
or an IPP. In addition, wholesale market brokers sell a small
amount of electricity.
The buy-side of the PPA is usually a Discom, but also
large commercial and industrial consumers buying through
OA arrangements. The price of a PPA is regulated by the
SERC, except under the OA model. Payments are made
directly (between buyers and sellers) with no intermediary.
In case of breach of contract, the only recourse is to initi-
ate a judicial proceeding, which may be a long, drawn-out
process. This is significant given the poor financial health of
many Discoms.
Electricity can also be bought and sold on the day-ahead
through independent brokers, and through the two re-
cently established power exchanges. In the latter case, the
exchange serves as the financial intermediary, and, in sharp
contrast with bilateral transactions, the associated payment
risk is insignificant.
6.3. Unit Commitment Aspects
Which power plants will generate and when is decided
through a process known as unit commitment (UC), which
is updated on a timescale of one to two weeks ahead. The
process varies from state to state, and it is likely that chang-
es in the resulting “dispatch stack” reflect the availability of
power plants rather than the cost of procurement, as these
are fixed in the PPA. In other words, UC takes economic
aspects into account only to a certain extent and is not in
any sense dynamic.
The fine-tuning of UC, according to short-run marginal
costs of production (Economic Dispatch), does not appear
to be done anywhere in the country. Rather, Discoms will
ask LDCs to dispatch generation up to the price-level that
the Discom can afford, financially and politically.
6.4. Discoms: the Key Buyers
Stakeholders revealed that power sector investments are
seen often to have junk status. The primary reason for this
is the financial ill health of Discoms. As the latter are the
main buyers – sometimes the sole buyers – of electricity,
this represents a major disincentive to potential investors.
In other words, if accelerated growth of RE and conven-
tional generation is required, one of the priorities is to
rehabilitate the Discoms.
Until Discoms are financially stable, their ability to
provide the “collateral” – the risk control needed by private
investors – will be at best gravely limited. This problem,
amounting to insolvency in some cases, results from a
gap between the costs incurred by Discoms, mainly in the
purchase of electricity, and their revenues from the sale of
that electricity and state government subsidy. This gap is
illustrated for selected states in Figure 19.
Discoms differ dramatically from state to state in many
ways, including size, the relative proportions of consumer
segments, and tariffs charged. There may be only one, or
several. Figure 20 illustrates their relative size in the lower
part of the figure, in millions of units procured (GWh), and Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 60
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0
Rs / kWh
MU (GWh)
West Bengal
Gujarat
Karnataka
Haryana
Chattisgarh
Maharashtra
Orissa
Uttarakhand
Punjab
Andhra PradeshMadhya Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Assam
Delhi
Tamil Nadu
Rajasthan
Average cost of supply Average revenue before subsidy
Figure 19
Gap Between Discom Revenue and Expenditure
(Rs/kWh) (FY 10/11)
Source: (PFC, 2012)
Figure 20
Electricity Procured (MU) and Deficit Remaining (%)
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
-90
-100
Andhra Pradesh
AssamBihar
Chattisgarh
DelhiDVC
GujaratHaryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
JharkhandKamataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
OrissaPunjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
UttarakhandWest Bengal
Source: Central Electricity Authority
% (deficit) Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 61
the fact that all are growing steeply.
In theory, Discoms are required by the Universal Service
Obligation to provide electricity to all their consumers. But
until such a time as they are able to afford to do so, and
when the Universal Service Obligation is enforced, they
Loss of larger
(premium)
consumers to
Open Access
Arrangements
Less-than-
cost provision
of electricity
to some
consumers
Theft
and
losses
Rising cost of
electricity
procurement
Distribution
grid
maintenance
Renewable
purchase
obligation
Financial ill
health of the
DISCOM
Figure 21
Range of Possible Financial Pressures
on Discoms
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Bihar (BSEB)
Jharkhand (JSEB)
Orissa (NESCO)
Sikkim PD
West Bengal SEDCL
Arunachat PD
Manipur PD Mizoram PD
Nagaland PDTripura SECLDelhi (NDPL)
Haryana (UHBVNL)
Himachal Pradesh SEB
J&K PDD
Punjab SPCL
Rajasthan (JDVVNL)
Uttar Pradesh (UPDVVN)
Uttaranchal PCL
Andhra Pradesh (APCPDCL)
Karnataka (HESCOM)
Kerala SEB
Tamil Nadu (TANGEDCO)
Puducherry PD
Goa PD
Gujarat (UGVCL)
Madhya Pradesh (MKVCCL)
Maharashtura (MSEDCL)
Figure 22
Shares of Consumption: Agricultural and Industrial Sectors
Agricultural
Industrial
Other
Source: (PFC, 2012)
will instead continue to shed demand (load-shedding) at
the level at which procuring additional electricity becomes
financially uncomfortable.
While load-shedding remains an option, the alternative
of purchasing more expensive electricity from existing re-
newable or gas-fired plants, for example, will remain on the
shelf. The same problem undermines deployment of new
capacity, renewable or otherwise.
The upper part of Figure 20 shows the deficit remaining
between electricity procured and demand, as a percentage,
for the financial years 2006–2007 to 2012–2013.
A number of interconnected and conflicting pressures on
the Discom cause this revenue gap, as highlighted in Figure
21. Chief among these is the requirement on them to pro-
vide electricity at very low cost (usually less than the cost of
procuring it) to agricultural consumers.
6.4.1. Subsidised Agricultural Consumption
Historically, the electricity price charged to agricultural
consumers has been very low, or zero. This is intended to
support socioeconomic objectives of government, such as
food security and affordability, and rural economic develop-
ment (e.g., income growth and job creation).
But, insofar as Discoms are often concerned, and from Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 62
a purely financial perspective, this requirement
represents an enormous burden. In the large
agricultural states, agricultural load amounts to a
major portion of a Discom’s consumer base, more
than half of BESCOM’s load in Karnataka, for
example, as shown in Figure 22.
As stakeholders pointed out repeatedly, many
agricultural consumers are not metered. Electric-
ity theft routinely occurs. Attempts to increase
the metering of this consumer segment have been
highly problematic, with reports of metering
equipment being sabotaged, possibly as consum-
ers may infer that attempts to meter consumption,
even if a zero-tariff applies, may lead eventually to
the imposition of a tariff.
The supply of electricity to these consumers is
sporadic, being when the cost is lowest. Thus, in
a somewhat chicken-or-egg situation, farmers are
not inclined to pay for what they may perceive to
be a poor quality of service. Meanwhile the Dis-
com is less inclined to provide a reliable service to
consumers who pay so little for it.
Until the advent of SERCs, the provision of
electricity was not regulated, and was simply pro-
vided by the state government-owned vertically
integrated electric utility. Providing support for agriculture
through no-/low-cost electricity was simply part of the state
government’s budget, a policy agenda not unlike public
health, for example.
With the advent of independent regulators, and unbun-
dling from direct state control, Discoms began to be run
as independent companies with separate financial control,
throwing the disparity between their expenditure and rev-
enues into stark relief.
State governments are expected to cover the cost of this
disparity. For example, the authors were informed that in
Maharashtra, 12 to 13 GW of agricultural load is charged at
Rs 0.8/kWh, whereas the cost of procuring that electricity
to the Discom is Rs 2.4/kWh. This amounts to a difference
of approximately Rs 1000 crores per annum.
In reality, however, this subsidy may be delayed sub-
stantially, and payment in any case is subject to the state
government’s own financial health. If the subsidy does not
arrive, the deficit will simply remain on the Discom’s bal-
ance sheet.
Thus there is a fundamental policy conundrum to be
solved. It hinges on the mechanism through which the
support for agriculture is to be provided. Should it be pro-
vided indirectly, through the Discom – as done today – or
through alternative mechanisms, such as, for example, a
direct financial transfer to the consumer.
Unless a long-term solution is established, the status quo
of provision of electricity at less-than-cost will continue to
be a major burden on Discoms. The most serious conse-
quence of this, purely in terms of meeting the demand for
electricity, is that insufficient investment is made in new
generating capacity, including renewable capacity. Stake-
holders consistently pointed out that this problem still has
not been addressed successfully and conclusively in most
parts of the country. This chain of cause and effect is high-
lighted in Figure 23.
Although not a focus of this paper, the price of coal
is also a major factor. The price of imports, mainly from
Indonesia, has increased considerably in recent years,
while volatility is also an issue. This burden may fall on the
shoulders of Discoms, following a recent CERC decision to
allow the owners of power plants in Mundra, Gujarat, to
pass on their rising coal costs to state buyers.
6.4.2. Political Pressures
Discoms are to provide electricity to different consumer
USO not
upheld
Load
shedding
RE PPA
payments
delayed
RE does
not displace
coal
New
RE PPAs
not signed
Rising /
volatile
coal
cost
Reliability
concerns
Reducing
revenues
(and CSS)
Large
customers go
OA or
captive
DISCOM
is financially
weakened
Figure 23
Contributors to Discom Weakness
SERC
Regulates
low cost for
agricultural
consumers
Delayed
top-up
subsidy
State
Gov’t Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 63
categories at prices approved by the SERC. SERCs are
quasi-judicial bodies that typically do not regulate prices on
their own, but rather react to “rate cases” filed by Discoms,
comments filed by other parties, and through regulatory
proceedings.
Stakeholders have indicated that in some cases a SERC
may also be subject to political pressures, from state gov-
ernment, to reduce tariffs for certain sets of consumers. At
present the state government can intervene in pricing, cit-
ing “extraordinary circumstances.” Thus a Discom may be
required to price electricity in a manner that is politically
expedient but economically unsustainable.
Similarly, stakeholders have drawn attention to the fact
that reduced load-shedding of politically sensitive areas,
or at politically sensitive times, may be required by politi-
cal forces. Political interference of this kind in unbundled
utility companies, which are expected to operate on com-
mercial principles, remains a problem.
6.4.3. Erosion of Customer Base
Discoms, facing as basic a problem as ensuring short-term
cash flow, are obliged to raise tariffs on larger/wealthier con-
sumers (typically industrial and commercial, and including
OA consumers), in effect cross-subsiding poorer consumers
(Figure 24). This is known as the Cross Subsidy Surcharge
(CSS), and the authors were informed that in Maharashtra
alone, for example, this amounts to Rs 9000 crores.
But rising tariffs may encourage those who can afford it
to look for their electricity elsewhere than from the tradi-
tional Discoms. This includes mainly larger commercial and
industrial consumers, who may choose to invest in their
own captive power plants,
33
including distributed renew-
able options, or to take advantage of the OA mechanism to
enter into PPAs directly with power plants, rather than pay
rising tariffs to the Discom.
These large consumers make up the most valuable seg-
ment of demand to the Discom, in financial terms. Their
departure reduces revenue further still, while reducing the
options available to the Discom to halt what may become a
cost spiral.
This is a key reason a Discom may be reluctant to allow
large consumers to take advantage of the OA mechanism,
even though it is the latter’s right to do so, and even though
they can oblige OA consumers to pay a cross-subsidy
surcharge.
But Discoms have no recourse if large consumers choose
to simply generate their own electricity behind the meter,
an occurrence that is likely to increase with deployment of
new renewables, which typically have smaller units sizes
than conventional power plants.
Finally, it is harder for Discoms to justify rising tariffs
when Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses
are commonly in the range of 20 to 40 percent (Figure 25,
next page).

6.4.4. Easing the Burden
In the intervention by central government of 2001 to
2003, Discoms were assisted financially on the expectation
that they would improve their performance. Fundamental
problems as highlighted above were not fully addressed,
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
HT Industry Commercial
DomesticAgricultural
Figure 24
Consumer Segment Tariffs as a
Percentage of Average Cost of Supply
Source: FOR, 2013
Consumer Tariffs as Percentage of Approved Average Cost of Supply
Uttar PradeshMaharashtra
Gujarat
Andhra Pradesh (FY 08)
33 Owners of captive plants in Maharashtra, for example, need
only to consume 51 percent of output of the plant. The
remainder can be sold to other (often smaller) consumers
also seeking an alternative to the Discom. This power sale
attracts the CSS. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 64
however. Indeed, a new round of measures to improve the
financial standing of Discoms is now underway, following
the recommendations of the Shunglu Committee in Decem-
ber 2011.
As discussed in Section 6.4.2, political pressure may be
applied to Discoms to keep electricity prices at a level at
which profitable commerce is impossible. Ensuring that the
Discom is able to set tariffs at least to recover their costs,
regardless of political and social considerations, may be an
essential step toward stopping the rot.
This in turn raises the critical question of how the elec-
tricity needs of poorer consumers would be met under such
a tariff regime. A number of stakeholders highlighted the
benefit of off-grid energy solutions in this regard, suggest-
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
FY 08/09 FY 09/10 FY 10/11
Figure 25
Aggregate Technical and Commercial Losses in Selected States
(FY 08/09 – 10/11)
Source: (PFC, 2012)Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Chattisgarh
Delhi
GujaratHaryana
Himachal Pradesh
Kamataka
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
OrissaPunjab
RajasthanMeghalaya
Uttar Pradesh
UttarakhandWest Bengal
State
Gov’t
Redirects
ag load
subsidy to
off-grid
tech
Regulates
to protect
surface
water
Ag loadDISCOM
Goes
off-grid
Load
reduction
Reduced
new grid
need
Temp
loss of
flexibility
Reliability
gain
Rural
Development
Increased
land under
cultivation
Reduced
cost
burden
Energy
deficit
reduced
Figure 26
Lifting the Agricultural Consumer Burden from Discoms: One Option Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 65
ing that, given the accessibility and relatively ubiquitous
nature of RE resources compared to fossil resources, renew-
able energy may play a major role here.
The primary constituent of agricultural load in India
is for water pumping. This is typically done using pumps
of a few horsepower each, connected to the distribution
feeder (low-voltage power line). An alternative might be to
take this load off the grid and install solar-powered pumps,
the technology for which is now mature after more than a
decade of field-testing. Indeed, Karnataka is launching a
solar pump scheme in March 2014, wherein 1000 to 2000
pumps will be provided to farmers in the first year. Similar
agricultural solar pump programmes have also been initi-
ated in many states (e.g., Gujarat, Maharashtra, Bihar, and
Punjab).
The installation of these pumps could be financed with a
direct subsidy from the state government, rather than using
the funds to offset the Discom’s financial losses in supplying
that load, as illustrated in Figure 26.
This is just one option. It is included here as an illus-
tration only. Such a fundamental shift would need to be
gradual, carefully monitored, and modified when unin-
tended consequences arise, as they inevitably do when such
complex systems of inter-related services and needs are
altered.
For example, stakeholders highlighted that water pump-
ing is at present constrained by electricity supply reliability.
Already stressed water resources could be impacted nega-
tively if the pumping window were significantly widened.
Others mentioned that there is a measure of convenience
for the Discom, and protection of coal power plant reve-
nues, in being able to return supply to the agricultural load
at off-peak times, without backing down (inflexible) coal
plants. This measure of flexibility would be lost if this load
went off-grid.
6.5. Open Access
6.5.1. How Does OA Work?
OA is provided for in the Electricity Act of 2003, which
requires “non-discriminatory provision for the use of trans-
mission lines or distribution system or associated facilities
with such lines or system by any licensee or consumer or a
person engaged in generation in accordance with the regu-
lations specified by the Appropriate Commission.”
At the distribution level, the intention is to allow gen-
erators other than those contracted by the local Discom to
inject electricity into the grid, provided that a PPA has been
signed with a buyer for that electricity.
The objectives of the drive for OA are as follows:
1. To encourage greater competition in the wholesale
market segment;
2. To provide consumers with the option to buy
electricity at less cost, if cheaper alternatives to the
Discom exist; and
3. To ease supply shortages by allowing private
investment in new power plants.
OA consumers are generally large consumers, such as
textile, cement, and steel units, with demand of 1 MW or
more. OA allows them to source their needs from a range of
alternative producers, rather than solely from the Discom in
whose catchment their plant is located.
A power producer, public or private – it might even be
a Discom from a neighbouring state – can enter into a PPA
with whomever it wishes, including a power exchange.
Prices in OA PPAs are agreed to by the contracting parties,
and are not regulated.
Access to the ISTS is regulated by the CERC. Access to
the ISTS for buyers and sellers can be granted for three dif-
ferent durations, as follows:
1. Long-Term OA: for a duration of 12 to 25 years;
2. Medium-Term OA: for a duration of 3 months to 3
years; and
3. Short-Term OA: for a duration of less than 1 month.
Regulation of OA to the grid at the intrastate level
(Transco/Discom ownership) is done by the SERC, and
durations vary from state to state.
6.5.2. Distribution Level Issues
Putting aside for the moment the question of whether
or not sufficient grid capacity actually exists to handle new
flows of electricity, the key issue is whether or not (inde-
pendent) renewable power plants are able to secure long-
term access to it.
As mentioned above, a consequent revenue reduction
may discourage a Discom from allowing larger customers
to leave its catchment for alternative providers. Discoms
levy charges on consumers moving to alternative provid-
ers, known as wheeling and banking charges.
34
Stakehold-
ers highlighted that the process of setting these charges is
opaque and fraught with complications, and that Discoms
have no incentive to facilitate OA.
The charges are often bundled together with the CSS,
34 The wheeling charge is intended to cover the costs of wear
and tear on the network. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 66
along with other charges as they arise, and combined they
may be prohibitively high. It should also be noted that the
administration relating to the setting up of an OA agree-
ment, at the distribution level, is in the hands of the Dis-
com also. Stakeholders have suggested that in certain cases,
the Discom may deliberately erect administrative hurdles to
the completion of such an agreement.
In the Indian market of today, buyers and sellers of
electricity have a strong preference for long-term con-
tracts. However, long-term access to the grid is likely to be
seriously restricted. Stakeholders have suggested that the
grandfathering of access is an issue (i.e., that existing power
plants, regardless of economic or efficiency aspects, retain
priority access).
In this respect it should be highlighted that the same
(public) company owns both the distribution grid to which
access is being sought by the RE IPP, as well as conven-
tional power plants of longstanding connection to the grid.
Private electricity producers may therefore find their access
limited to the medium- or short-term options. Aside from
adding to transaction costs, such durations are likely to be
unattractive to investors in such projects.
Finally, in an OA agreement, the producer is required
to signal a daily production schedule, deviations from
which are subject to penalties. As discussed in Chapter 8,
day-ahead output forecasting, particularly for wind power
plants, is subject to considerable uncertainties, and such
penalties would be financially onerous.
In short, stakeholders felt that OA is a work in progress,
even for conventional generation, in most states. In the
development of this roadmap, no instances were identified
wherein a privately owned renewable power plant had en-
tered into an OA agreement, although stakeholder interac-
tion was not exhaustive, and instances may exist in Karna-
taka and Gujarat, for example. This appears to be because
such arrangements at the distribution level are prohibitively
costly, and because the scheduling requirements are too
onerous.
In contrast to OA at the distribution level, OA to the
transmission level and particularly to the ISTS appears to
be significantly more successful, with OA agreements be-
tween some very large consumers and producers. However,
no RE plants are connected to the ISTS at present, although
there is some discussion of RE UMPPs as an option.
6.6. Short-Term Trading
In the short-term market, buyers and sellers trade
electricity mainly on the day-ahead to dispose of surpluses
and make up shortfalls. Buyers are mainly Discoms and
large consumers, the sellers mainly large power plants and
Discoms.
The volume traded short-term is small compared to
overall Indian consumption. In FY 2012/13, the energy
2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
Bilateral Bilateral Bilateral Bilateral BilateralExchangeExchangeExchangeExchangeExchange
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
MU (GWh)
Figure 27
Short-term Trading in India: Bilateral and on Exchanges
(FY 08/09 - 12/13)
Source: CERC data Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 67
available for consumption amounted to 911,432 MU (911
TWh), of which 71,280 MU (71 TWh), or approximately
7.8 percent, was traded in short-term markets. But short-
term trade is growing, as illustrated in Figure 27, up 240
percent in the last five years.
There are two power exchanges, the Indian Energy
Exchange, and Power Exchange India Limited. In both,
almost all trading is on the day ahead (Day Ahead Market).
The Day Ahead Market is a double-sided blind, uniform-
price (marginal price) auction that closes at noon on the
day prior to delivery.
The power exchanges are simply financial entities, allow-
ing buyers and sellers to trade transparently at a common
price. Like, for example, the power exchanges in the United
Kingdom and Spain, they are not managed by the operators
of the system, as in the eastern United States (PJM) market,
for example (run by the Regional Transmission Operator),
or Nord Pool in Scandinavia (run by a collaboration of the
Scandinavian Transmission System Operators).
From three days ahead of delivery, the exchanges com-
municate their needs to the National Load Dispatch Centre
(NLDC), at which point congestion among regions is taken
into account to generate zonal day-ahead prices for elec-
tricity. Grid congestion is the major constraint on volumes
traded on the exchange, according to the Indian Energy
Exchange, with volume constrained down from five percent
of total consumption, to only approximately 1.8 percent.
6.6.1. Potential Benefits for Variable
Renewable Energy
Short-term markets can benefit all power producers, as
it enables them to update their positions closer to the time
of delivery to account for unexpected variations in output.
This is particularly the case with variable renewable energy
(VRE) such as wind and solar PV, in which cases the actual
output will be known with much greater accuracy closer to
real-time (see forecasting aspects discussed in Chapter 8).
Such markets may also provide the opportunity to flexible
power producers/consumers to modify their output/con-
sumption if the price incentive exists for them to do so.
To be of most benefit to VRE, trading should be possible
right up to the time of delivery, inside the preceding
hour (the hour-ahead). Trading that closes on the day-
ahead will mean that the actual wind and solar electricity
production seen 24 to 36 hours after trading has stopped
will be subject to large uncertainty. If penalties for deviating
from the schedule exist, as in India, this route will not be
financially viable.
Power exchanges can provide a platform to trade closer
to the time of delivery. And if the pool of electricity being
traded is deep enough, buyers and sellers can rely on it to
provide for their needs in the short-term, while wind and
solar producers can fine-tune their schedule to minimise
deviations from it.
It is possible to trade intra-day on the Indian power
exchanges, but present volumes are negligible. Stakehold-
ers were of the opinion that Discoms will have little interest
in trading intra-day while load shedding remains so open
an option. If the Universal Service Obligation were to be
enforced, however, then the picture might be different: the
short-term needs of Discoms arising from uncertainties in
demand and supply could stimulate flexible producers to
sell in such markets.
In contrast, trading over-the-counter (i.e., an arrange-
ment that is not transparent to other players) does not offer
this benefit. Such trades provide limited forward visibility
of price, and they do not provide sufficient certainty that
the opportunity to trade will be present when needed.
It is unclear what the value of power exchanges might
be in terms of deploying RE. It is certain that trading in
the short-term through liquid exchanges greatly facilitates
a dynamic approach to buying and selling electricity (i.e.,
trade is able to respond to fluctuating output as the weather
changes). But the extent to which India should embrace
short-term trading at the expense of long-term bilateral
PPAs is less clear.
It seems likely, however, that power exchanges will con-
tinue to become more attractive for the purchase of electric-
ity at short notice, to manage deficit and surplus generally.
This in turn would suggest a growing potential usefulness
in managing the variable output of wind and solar power.
For example, if a Discom has a surplus of wind electric-
ity generated when load is low at night, but is able to trade
it over the exchanges to cover growing nighttime load in
another state (e.g., industrial, air-conditioning), then this
represents an opportunity to make better use of VRE. Of
course, this would be subject to sufficient transmission
network capacity being available, and this is discussed in
the next chapter.
6.7. Summary
The greater the certainty that the electricity generated by
a new asset will find a buyer, the more certain are project
cash flows, and the more attractive such projects are to
investors. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 68
At present, power sector investments are seen to have
near “junk” status. Of the four routes to market for RE, by
far the most important is sale to Discoms. But these institu-
tions are often hard-pressed financially, and their ability to
provide the “collateral” – the risk control needed by private
investors – is gravely limited.
A number of burdens weigh upon the Discoms and pre-
vent them from acting with their commercial best interests
in mind. Chief among these is a requirement to provide
electricity at less than cost to agricultural consumers, while
corresponding subsidy from the state government is often
late, or not commensurate.
Many stakeholders recommended that investigation of
methods to alleviate pressures on the Discoms be given the
highest priority. One such method may be to lift away the
agricultural demand from the Discoms by providing off-
grid alternatives directly subsidised by the state. An on-grid
method might be to remove the requirement on Discoms to
provide electricity at less than cost, redirecting the subsidy
received presently to the consumer.
While other aspects such as scheduling requirements
deter OA contracts for VRE producers, it appears that Dis-
coms, in part owing to their financial precariousness, may
be reluctant to facilitate OA to their distribution network
assets. Wishing to avoid the loss of their higher revenue
customer base, they also prevent renewable energy power
plants from accessing alternative buyers.
Power procurement is at present mainly done through
long-term PPAs between electricity buyers and sellers
within the same state. Short-term markets are still small, as
is trade interstate. If the Universal Service Obligation were
enforced, the short-term needs of Discoms arising from un-
certainties in demand and supply, including that of renew-
able energy production, might stimulate activity.
At fair prices, and subject to greater knowledge of inter-
state transmission capacity, this could also facilitate relative-
ly RE resource-poor states to meet their RPO, and contrib-
ute to a more nationwide approach to meeting renewable
energy targets. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 69
P
ower plants and consumers are linked in “real-time”
through transmission and distribution networks –
the grid. Because electricity cannot yet be stored at
scale, it must be consumed as it is generated.
Broadly speaking, the grid in India is subdivided into
three main categories: the ISTS, which consists of very
high-voltage lines connecting states, intrastate transmission
at a lower voltage, and a distribution grid in each state at a
lower voltage again.
35

Power plants are connected to the grid at different levels.
Some of them, including the very largest coal-fired plants
(UMPPs) feed into the ISTS, whereas other large power
plants feed into the intrastate transmission system.
A distinction should be drawn between the addition of
a new line to evacuate electricity from a new power plant,
and the construction of new lines to better manage the flow
of electricity around the network as a whole and to con-
sumers. It is not enough to simply connect a power plant
to the grid: the electricity produced must not overload the
existing grid.
Unlike conventional, fossil fuel-fired power stations,
renewable power plants only generate under appropriate
weather conditions. This variability of output has caused
concern to system operators throughout the world, and
there is a range of tools with which it can be managed.
While Chapter 8 discusses operational tools to manage this
variability, this chapter discusses tools that can be used to
plan the grid to better manage variability.
The voltage level at which a power plant is connected
has bearing on the ease with which its output can be man-
aged. The authors were informed that most wind power
plants in Tamil Nadu are connected at the 33-kV level, at
which level their output is not visible to the state LDC.
Consequently, planning of system operation cannot take
such plants into account. In Gujarat, in contrast, most wind
plants are connected at 66 kV or above, with the result that
their output can be “seen” by the state LDC.
The Indian grid is already extensive. Rolling upgrades
and replacements will increasingly be needed as equip-
7. Planning the Grid
ment reaches the end of its lifespan, and as the demands
placed upon it increase. Meanwhile some 600,000 villages
remain without electricity. Unless an off-grid solution to
the electrification of the latter is taken, then taken together
these two tasks represent a significant opportunity: both
upgrades and new lines can be designed to better manage
large shares of variable RE.
7.1. Grid Planning Today
The work of “finishing” the grid is never done. New con-
sumers and power producers are connected continuously.
Nowhere is this more the case than in India. A number of
35 This is a general characterisation. Some states own very high-
voltage lines (e.g., 400 kV), whereas centrally owned lines
may be as low as 220 kV and 132 kV.
Regional
Power
Committees
(RPCs)
Consider
proposals
and decide
on a case-
by-case
basis
Figure 28
Grid Design and Development Process
(Simplified)
CTU,
STUs and
DISCOMs
propose
new lines or
upgrades
as need arises
Common
members of RPCs:
CEA
CTU and STUs
NLDC and SLDCs
Public and
private
generators
Public and
private discoms
Electricity
traders Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 70
central, regional, and state-level institutions are involved
in developing and maintaining the grid to meet these new
demands, interacting, among other ways, through Regional
Power Committees (RPCs), as illustrated in Figure 28.
The need for new lines, commonly resulting from the
signature of a new PPA between a conventional power plant
and a Discom, for example, may be considered by a num-
ber of bodies, including the CEA, Discoms, the STU, the
Central Transmission Utility (CTU), also known as PGCIL,
and national and state-level generators.
The authors were informed that the process for a new
renewable power plant in Karnataka is as follows: the state
nodal agency for RE development will sanction plans for a
new power plant, present them to the state LDC, which re-
ports to the STU with recommendations for additional lines
or reinforcements needed to accommodate that plant. The
STU then coordinates with the CEA and the CTU.
Given the need to massively increase Indian electricity
generation capacity, to meet the needs both of unelectri-
fied populations and future demand growth, recent initia-
tives have endeavoured to plan the grid for deployment of
renewable power plants. Proactive, long-term planning is
included, for example, in the Green Corridors Report, and
Desert Power 2050. These are described briefly in Box 1.
7.2. Additional Needs of RE
It has become something of a truism that renewable en-
ergy resources are far from load. This is far from true in the
Indian case, particular as regards the solar resource, which
is impressive throughout the country (Figure 29). In con-
trast, the harvesting of the best wind resources may indeed
require new transmission lines.
Green Corridors and Desert Power
T
he Transmission Plan for Envisaged Renewable
Capacity, the so-called “Green Corridors”
Report, was released by PGCIL in July 2012.
Its objectives were threefold: to identify additional
transmission infrastructure needs of likely wind,
solar, and hydro capacity in RE-rich states such as
Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat,
Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, and
Jammu and Kashmir during the period of the 12th Five
Year Plan; to estimate the CAPEX of such additions;
and to propose approaches to funding.
Desert Power India – 2050 – Integrated Plan for
Desert Power Development was released by PGCIL in
December 2013. It focuses on opportunities to harvest
solar power in the north and northwest of the country,
specifically in the deserts and wastelands of the Thar
in Rajasthan, the Rann of Kutch in Gujarat, Ladakh in
Jammu and Kashmir, and the Lahul and Sipti valley in
Himachal Pradesh. The study suggests that five to ten
percent of the unproductive wastelands in these areas
(7400–14,800 km2) could produce 220 to 450 GW
of solar and wind power. Similar to the Green Cor-
ridors Report, the study assesses the cost and extent of
transmission infrastructure to evacuate electricity thus
generated to demand centres.
This map depicrs model estimates of annual
average global horizontal irradiance
(GHI) at 10km resolution based on hourly
estimates of radiation over 7 years (2002-
2008). The inputs are visible imagery from
geostationary satellites, aerosol optical
depth, water vapor, and ozone.
Figure 29
Global Horizontal Irradiance Map of India
Prepared by NREL
Source: http://mnre.gov.in/sec/solar-assmnt.htm Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 71
International experiences suggest that the most impor-
tant task is to manage the trade-offs among:
1. The cost of the transmission line;
2. The amount of electricity it will carry to the load; and
3. The benefits represented by new lines in terms of
reducing the need for balancing power (by smoothing
aggregated output), and increasing capacity value.
In a truly system-wide planning exercise, these factors
must be weighed together, but let us start with the most
obvious factor: how much electricity will the line bring to
market?
The capacity utilisation factor (CUF) of a transmission
line expresses how much of its capacity is in use on aver-
age. The CUF of a power plant is relevant when dimen-
sioning the capacity of the line through which electricity is
evacuated to the wider network, and the extent to which
the grid will need to be reinforced in the locale of that con-
nection.
In theory at least, a coal-fired power plant can generate
around the clock, maximising the usage of the lines con-
necting it to consumers. This means that the owner of the
transmission line can charge on the basis of MW, for the full
capacity of its line, and the power plant can afford to pay.
In practise, coal CUFs in India may be significantly
lower than the 80 percent or so hoped for (approximately
60 to 65 percent), whether because of low efficacy of older
plants and maintenance requirements, or fuel supply short-
ages. Nevertheless, solar and wind power capacity factors
are considerably less than this.
Figure 30 illustrates that the CUF of wind plants is
lower, but also that it has risen considerably over the last
decade, as turbine technology and siting techniques im-
prove, and as turbines grow taller to take advantage of the
higher wind speeds higher up. At an average speed of 6.5
m/s, CUFs in 2002 were approximately 25 percent, versus
approximately 40 percent today.
Many stakeholders cited local grid congestion as a pri-
mary cause of curtailment. Given inadequate data on power
flows in distribution networks, however, it is unclear if con-
gestion is actually occurring, or if curtailment is caused by
other factors, such as low demand (e.g., at nighttime); an
inability to wheel power out of the state owing to conges-
tion further afield (e.g., on the ISTS); or an inability to find
a buyer further afield for one reason or another.
Assuming that, as stated by many stakeholders, it is a
matter of local congestion, then the priority is to assess the
extent of that congestion and the causes of it. This issue is
explored further in Chapter 8, in the context of Renewable
Energy Management Centres. The process of securing grid
connection is explored in Chapter 5.
7.2.1. Smoothing Output Through
Dispersal of Power Plants
Output from wind- and solar PV-powered plants de-
pends on the weather, which fluctuates continually as part
of a number of complex geophysical processes that mean
that output varies also. Figure 31 illustrates this variability.
Solar PV output is also subject to shifting daylight pat-
terns over the year. The timing of output is also uncertain,
which is discussed in Chapter 8. In contrast, fossil-fired
power plants rely on fuels that can be stored (although they
may equally be subject to supply shortages).
The output of one wind or solar power plant is far more
variable than the output of 1000 such plants taken togeth-
er. Their dispersal over a wide area has an additional effect:
ramp rates, the rate at which output increases or decreases,
are markedly reduced. Moreover, the extent of ramps, taken
as a percentage of installed capacity, is smaller.
In other words, wind and solar output will reduce/in-
crease more slowly, and to a lesser extent, when taken as
an aggregated whole. The consequence of this may be a
significant reduction in the amount of flexibility – and the
speed at which it is needed in the system – to balance the
variability of the aggregate RE generation.
This in turn would mean that other power plants needed
to step in when the wind falls, such as coal plants, would
need to increase their output at a correspondingly slower
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
Capacity factors
5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5
Figure 30
Evolving Capacity Factors of Wind
Power Plants at Different Wind Speeds
Wind speed at 50m height
2002-03 standard equipment
2009-10 standard equipment
2012-13 standard equipment
2012-13 low windspeed equipment (80m tower)
2012-13 low windspeed equipment (100m tower)
Source: IEA 2013, based on analysis by Ryan Wiser et al of LBNL Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 72
rate. Furthermore, if coal plants are also aggregated over
a larger footprint, the ramping (up or down) of each coal
plant may also be substantially smaller and slower than
what would be required from just one coal plant. Conse-
quently, the ability of the system as a whole to both absorb
and respond to the variability of RE generation may be
significantly improved when the geographic size of the
balancing area and the size of the system is large.
Understanding of the value of dispersal of VRE power
plants over a wide area has recently benefitted from re-
search carried out by Gujarat Energy Transmission Cor-
poration Limited (GETCO), the CEA, National Renewable
Strong nocturnal
low-level jet
(mixing down to
hub height)
winds die down
as dryline
approaches
winds increase
behind dryline
Stong south winds
(developing Low to north)
W/NW winds increase
behind cold front
Low center
approaches
area
new Low
develops
to NW
Low
moves
away
cold front
passes
winds subside
as Low moves
rapidly
northeast
winds die down
as cold front
approaches
winds exceed turbine cut-out speed
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Power (as % of Rated Capacity
0:00 6:00
12:00 18:00
0:00 6:00
12:00 18:00
0:00 6:00
12:00 18:00
0:00 6:00
12:00 18:00
0:00 6:00
12:00 18:00
0:00
Small
Turbulent
Eddies
Land/Sea Breeze
Mtn./Valley Breeze
Chinook Wind
Santa Ana Wind
T-storm complexes
Hurricanes/
Tropical
Storms
High/Low
Pressure
Fronts
Long
Waves
Global 5000 km
Synoptic 2000 km
Mesoscale 20 km
Microscale 2 m
Seconds
to
minutes
Minutes
to
hours
Hours
to
days
Days
to
a week or more
features that can create wind energy ramps
~3500 km
~300 km
Typical
Scale Size
Figure 31
A) Examples of Meteorological Events
That Can Produce Wind Power Ramps
Over a 5-Day Period
B) Graphical Representation of
Meteorological Events Over a Range of
Spatial and Temporal Ranges
Source: Marquis et al., 2011
36
Thunderstorms
Tornados
Waterspouts
Dust Devils
Modeled PV Power Output Clear Sky PV Power Output
Solar Power (MW)Solar Power (MW)
Solar Power (MW)Solar Power (MW)
4
3
2
1
0
1500
1000
500
0
1500
1000
500
0
4
3
2
1
0
6 8 10 12p 2p 4p 6p 8p
6 8 10 12p 2p 4p 6p 8p
6 8 10 12p 2p 4p 6p 8p
6 8 10 12p 2p 4p 6p 8p
July 23, 2006
5 MW Fixed Panel at 23.05, 71.75
October 12, 2006
July 23, 2006
Aggregate of All Baseline Locations
October 12, 2006
Source: GETCO, CEA, NREL, Evergreen 2014
Figure 32
Clear Sky and Synthetic PV Output for (Left) a Single Site
During a Single Monsoon Day and Dry Season Day; and (Right) All Baseline PV Sites
36 Images in the publication of Marquis et al were originally courtesy of C. Finley of WindLogics. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 73
Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Evergreen Renewable
Consulting.
This joint study highlights the important impact on vari-
ability of aggregating solar power output in Gujarat over a
wide area. Its “baseline scenario” comprises 1.9 GW of solar
PV capacity, being all existing and expected capacity in the
state, according to GETCO. Figure 32 illustrates the output
of a single 5-MW plant on a single day during monsoon
and dry seasons, and compares its output variability with
the output of the complete baseline capacity, using histori-
cal solar resource data with one-minute resolution.
The very large smoothing effect of the portfolio ap-
proach, as seen in Figure 32, highlights very strongly the
weakness of approaches to modelling the output of solar PV
by simple extrapolation from one site, as this fails to take
into account the smoothing effects on output of dispersal
and the concomitant dramatic effect of a portfolio approach
on the capacity value of the total solar PV portfolio.
The consideration of this phenomenon approach can be
considered the first of three steps toward effective manage-
ment of the variability characteristic of wind and solar PV
power plants, as illustrated in Figure 33.
of energy that can displace production from conventional
power plants and so reduce fuel costs, they also can have a
capacity value, assuming that the grid is uncongested and
electricity can flow unimpeded.
Capacity value may be calculated as Expected Load Car-
rying Capability, although a number of other metrics are
also used. Its calculation differs for thermal and variable
power plants. For thermal units, the primary characteristics
that influence overall system adequacy are the units’ avail-
able capacity and forced outage rates. The data on long-
term forced outage rates need to be available for different
size and type of power plants, and can be compiled from a
large data set of similar units.
With respect to wind power, the correlation of the tim-
ing of output and the timing of peak net load is the key fac-
tor with impact on the capacity value calculation,
37
along
with adjustments for outage rates and forecasting errors.
38

1. Disperse RE
power plants
to smooth
variability and
uncertainty
2. Achieve
visibility of
output; use
forecasting in
system
operation
3. Develop
flexibility to
manage
variability in
system
operation
Figure 33
Managing Variability: Step One
Figure 34 illustrates the effect of aggregation in Europe,
for both wind and solar power plants. The orange, green,
and blue lines represent the overall wind outputs in Spain/
Portugal, Germany, and France, for wind in the upper fig-
ure, and for solar in the lower figure.
In both cases, the black line represents output over the
European area. Particularly apparent in the wind case, but
also with solar, both the extent and rate of ramps, shown
as a proportion of installed capacity (i.e., not in absolute
terms), are decreased.
Moreover the number of hours when output is zero
becomes nominal. In other words, a part of the portfolio
somewhere can, for all intents and purposes, be guaran-
teed to be operating at any given moment. This means
that although variable renewables are primarily a source
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Normalised solar PV output
Normalised wind power output
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Day
Day
Iberia Germany France Europe
Iberia Germany France Europe
Figure 34
Effect of Geographic Spread on
Smoothing of Output
Source: IEA, 2014
37 Net load is a term used to represent the MWs of load
(demand) remaining to be satisfied once wind (or other
variable output) has been accounted for. Peak net load
therefore is the point at which this value is highest.
38 See IEA, 2014, for example, for further discussion of this topic.
Europe = all European case study countries. Generation data for April (top)
and March (bottom) 2011. Output normalized to installed capacity. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 74
The correlation between power from wind and load is also
site-dependent, for example, in some areas there may be a
diurnal and/or seasonal wind pattern.
Table 5 lists capacity values for wind power in selected
Indian states, as calculated in a recent study by ICF Inter-
national, based on estimates of the wind resource at 80
meters in altitude, and assuming that the wind plants are
connected to an uncongested grid.
It is important to note that geographical dispersion
in wind and solar plants will not happen unless there is
incentive for developers to build in this way, or unless it is
explicitly planned for.
In addition, dispersal of generation assets may imply
additional transmission needs. Both perspectives should be
borne in mind when planning additional lines.
7.2.2. Complementary RE Technologies
While considering the dispersal of wind power plants
to smooth their overall output, it may also be helpful to
consider potential complementarity in the output of dif-
ferent renewable energy technologies. Figure 35 shows
the monthly output of wind and solar power plants in
Germany. In the summer months solar output is higher,
whereas the winter months see higher wind output. Taken
as a whole, the outputs of the two technologies are highly
complementary.
India, of course, has a very different climate from Ger-
many. Most importantly seasonal variation in solar output
is likely to be smoother, while in some parts of the coun-
try wind output is highly concentrated in the monsoon
months. Nevertheless, the point remains that when consid-
ering the cost of new transmission, it is not just the wind
resource that should be borne in mind. Rather the planning
of new transmission should take into account the portfolio
mix of power plants that will give an output that make the
best use of transmission.
7.3. The Role of Evolved Grid Planning
This smoothing effect, through both geographical and
technological complementarity, could be increased if the
grid is planned to take advantage of them. As discussed
above, grid planning to date tends to be somewhat piece-
meal. A planned approach could see the building out of
transmission to where resources are strongest and most
complementary.
It is of primary importance that the planning of new
transmission to cater for the needs of new renewable power
plants should take into account the needs of other power
plants, and upgrades to the power grid necessary even in
Andhra Pradesh
Gujarat
Karnataka
Maharashtra
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Others
Total
14,497 25.5 3,697
35,071 29.5 10,346
13,593 24.0 3,262
5,961 23.0 1,371
5,050 20.5 1,035
14,152 23.0 3,255
14,464 24.0 3,471
102,778 26,438
Table 5
Estimation of Wind Capacity Value in India
State
Estimated
Potential at
80m (MW)
Capacity
Value
(%)
Capacity
Contribution
(MW)
Source: ICF, 2013
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0
TWh
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figure 35
Monthly Output of Wind and Solar Power Plants in Germany (2013)
Source: http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/renewable-energy-data
Solar
Wind Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 75
the absence of these new needs.
At the same time, the trade-off mentioned above between
connecting distant RE resources and the marginal benefit
of doing so in terms of cost needs to be considered. Access-
ing high quality resources generally lowers the per-kWh
generation cost of VRE power plants. However, connecting
distant plants to the grid can be costly.
There is also a trade-off between the cost of transmission
and the proportion of rated capacity that can be accommo-
dated. A wind power plant, for example, may only generate
at rated output for a small number of hours per year. This
means that if transmission capacity is dimensioned accord-
ing to rated output, a proportion of it may be underused
for the rest of the year. The cost of this unused portion may
outweigh its benefit in terms of those few hours, and it may
instead be prudent to plan the curtailment of the margin of
wind output instead.
39
Transmission constraints can be both real, based on
actual line loading, or administrative, based on rights to the
line. Line-rating, the process by which lines are character-
ised in terms of their capacity to transmit power, tends to
be very conservative, and often based on imprecise, rough
calculations. Examining rating processes, and considering
dynamic line ratings might be valuable. International ex-
periences suggest that it may be worthwhile to analyse line
constraints using historic RE power delivery data, when
considering the needs for additional lines to scale up RE
deployment.
Dynamic line rating is not practised in India, but can
significantly increase line capacities and reduce the percep-
tion of congestion. For example, during high wind periods,
ambient temperatures are low, increasing carrying capacity.
7.3.1. The Potential Value of Zoning
As well as the smoothing effect on output described
above, the holistic planning of transmission may bring a
host of other benefits in India. These are summarised in
Figure 36.
39 IEA, 2014.
Grid benefits
Project level
benefits
Resource
access
Use of best
resources
Reduce
performance
risk
Manage
land use
Grid
connection
Reduce
curtailment
Fast-track
permitting
Resolve
access
Efficient use
of new
capacity
Optimise use
of existing
capacity
Reduced flex
need (and
balancing cost)
Dispersal
effects
Improved
forcasting
Smoothed
(total) output
Grid
planned to
(multiple)
RE zones
Figure 36
Potential Advantages of Holistic Grid Planning Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 76
As discussed above, new lines would provide access to
the highest wind speed and/or greatest insolation areas. The
wind resource in such areas should be assessed in detail by
a neutral party before they are selected, to effectively man-
age performance risk to investors (as discussed in Chapter
5). Moreover the zoning approach may make it easier for
investors to select a portfolio of projects, over which the
probability of one plant underperforming will be reduced.
The choosing of the best resources – subject to the
trade-off with cost outlined above – and the fact that they
are feeding into a single (new) framework as opposed to
the multiple lines that might result from a more piecemeal
approach, is likely to optimise the CUFs for new transmis-
sion assets. It also makes possible the planning of solar
and wind power plants concurrently, taking advantage of
complementarity in output profiles discussed above.
Leading with transmission provides time and a strong
signal to stakeholders, which would enable them to manage
a number of key potential obstacles (e.g., curtailment,
discussed in Chapter 5) to the development and
deployment of the RE projects.
It also may considerably reduce the challenges associated
with identifying sufficient land for the siting of new power
plants and transmission corridors. The pre-definition of
development areas means that limited public resources
can be used in a more focussed manner, identifying land
that may be available, and streamlining/replicating permit-
ting procedures. Similarly, environmental impacts can be
assessed more strategically, reducing duplication, and in
advance, reducing uncertainties in project development
that can deter investment.
It may also have benefit in terms of leveling the playing
field between developers that have already banked land as-
sets for development, and those who have not.
Grid connection lead-times can be planned for and man-
aged down. If the STU and Discoms affected know in ad-
vance where new lines will be needed, this will help them
to plan their already stretched resources accordingly.
Similarly the need for new access infrastructure, such
as roads and rail links that may be through problematic
terrain, can be assessed holistically, minimising duplication
and providing greater clarity of the value these will have, in
terms of new power supply.
Curtailment risk, as discussed in Chapter 5, is a major
deterrent to investment. Power flows can be modelled
in advance, to assess whether modest curtailment at a
few times of the year can be tolerated in order to manage
overall costs of new transmission while not undermining
revenues to wind power projects.
Although these benefits will need to be assessed in detail
for relevance in the Indian context, it should also be noted
that the private sector would need to be closely consulted
in any such zone-planning efforts. Without full transpar-
ency, stakeholders suggested that the private sector might
oppose what they might see as interference by the state.
7.3.2. Zoning Practises
There are similarities between such a zoning approach
and current procedures that may be used to procure new
conventional power plants. Traditionally, Discoms and state
agencies have adopted two bidding practises for new types
of power plant: “Case 1” and “Case 2” bidding. In a Case
2 bidding process, the procurer (state/central government)
must identify the land required for the power production
project and then acquire it. The procurer must also develop
the necessary power evacuation and access infrastructure,
and obtain the necessary environmental clearances. The
Discom/agency also specifies in advance the type of power
plant eligible to bid (i.e., it is not an open competition in
which all technologies compete).
Only once this complete framework has been established
is the project opened to bidders, who compete to offer the
lowest MWh tariff. Thus, the state acts as facilitator, taking
the lion’s share of the risk while private project develop-
ers build the project with greater security than otherwise.
Many state governments have used this mechanism, using
Special Purpose Vehicles for making the necessary arrange-
ments. For example, contracts for coal-fired UMPPs have
been awarded after a Case 2 bidding format.
40
Under its Solar Power Policy of 2009, the state of Gujarat
has accelerated its development of utility-scale ground-
mounted solar PV power plants in wasteland areas. The “solar
park” that is presently being realised is made up of many
power plants. Aside from price and allocating the Discoms as
buyers, the policy has provisions, among others, to:
• Identify suitable locations for solar projects, and
prepare a “land bank”;
40 In Case 1 bids, the power procurers, which could be either
the state looking to procure power or the privately owned
electricity Discoms, call for price quotes for the project for
the fixed amount of electricity, irrespective of the source
or fuel, the location, and the technology used for power
generation. The Discom issues a tender for long-term PPAs.
Bidders are evaluated on criteria such as land availability and
fuel sourcing, among others. The bidders are responsible for
obtaining clearances and approvals. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 77
• Create/upgrade access infrastructure such as roads;
• Manage rights-of-way issues;
• Secure a water supply;
• Secure clearances (e.g., planning and environmental)
required from the state government;
• Build support for public awareness; and
• Develop appropriate manpower skills.
In these respects, the Solar Power Policy in Gujarat bears
many resemblances to a zoning approach.
An example of the zoning approach may be found in
Texas in the United States. In 2005, the legislature or-
dered the Public Utilities Commission of Texas (PUCT) to
designate Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ),
for which specific transmission improvements would be
required to connect the wind power plants, to be built sub-
sequently, to load centres. The PUCT designated five zones
that cover much of west Texas. Distances between these
zones and the major load centres in the east are as much as
650 km.
To connect these zones, the PUCT selected from among
several options a plan to build new 345-kV lines to accom-
modate an additional 11.5 GW of wind power generation
capacity. Figure 37 illustrates the new lines planned in the
panhandle (northwest) of Texas to feed wind output from
future power plants to load centres in the east.
CREZ was largely finished at the end of 2013. Because
of CREZ, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas reports
that wind-related congestion between west Texas and other
zones has largely disappeared. Transmission between the
west and north hubs was the most congested in 2011, and
third highest in 2012, but is no longer even in the top 30.
Key to the Texas CREZ process was the provision that
a CREZ line approval meant instant “used and useful”
status, and immediate rate-base cost recovery even during
Figure 37
Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ): New Lines in Northwest Texas
Panhandle A
CREZ Zone
Substation
Transmission Line
Source: http://www.texascrezprojects.com Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 78
construction. The lines were “socialised” in the sense that
all customers paid for lines that contributed to meeting the
legislated RE obligation (Figure 37).
A new approach was adopted recently in Brazil. This was
to identify resource-rich areas and hold auctions to build
new lines to these areas. This was first done in 2012 in
advance of the wind auctions held in 2013, so that the lines
and pooling substations would be in place when the wind
power plants are scheduled to be commissioned in Janu-
ary 2015. It is possible, however, that transmission will be
delayed by unrealistic assessment of costs by transmission
developers.
The new lines cannot cover all the terrain that could po-
tentially be developed for wind power. In February 2013,
the regulator, Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica, report-
edly announced that developers wishing to build outside
of areas with existing or planned lines will need to build
the required transmission themselves. This would amount
to an additional ten percent on average on the cost of the
project, and would be a significant disincentive.
7.3.3. Holistic Thinking in Grid Development
Thinking further ahead than the next power plant is
important, as is considering the needs of all power plants
simultaneously. In 2005, The German Energy Agency,
DENA, produced its first report on the needs for new trans-
mission, the DENA Grid Study 1. This was an important
leap forward for wind power planning in Germany, but it
was not until the second study was published in 2010 that
the needs for new wind power plants were considered hand
in hand with those of the power system regardless of wind
power development.
The Green Corridors Report and Desert Power resemble
the DENA 1 study to a certain extent. They too provide im-
portant insights into approaches that may be beneficial, but
without being integrated into wider power sector develop-
ment needs.
The European Network of Transmission System Opera-
tors for Electricity is required by the European Commission
to produce a Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYN-
DP). The first (pilot) was produced in 2010, and its second
update is to be completed in December of this year, with
further updates in the years to come.
The objectives of the TYNDP are (1) to ensure greater
transparency regarding the entire European electricity
transmission network and to support the decision-making
process at regional and European levels, and (2) to form the
sole base for the selection of Projects of Common Interest
to reinforce or upgrade the grid.
Key findings of the TYNDP 2012 included:
1. Permitting: one in three planned investments is
experiencing delays in implementation owing to long
permitting processes;
2. Congestion caused by RE: the need to invest EUR
104 billion in the refurbishment or construction of
roughly 52,300 km of extra high-voltage power lines
clustered into 100 investment projects across Europe;
and
3. Grid extension: extending the grid by only 1.3
percent a year enables the addition of three percent
additional generation capacity and the reliable
integration of 125 GW of renewable energy sources.
Projects of Common Interest will benefit from faster
and more efficient permit granting procedures, improved
regulatory treatment, and possible access to financial
support from the Connecting Europe Facility, under which
a EUR 5.85 billion budget has been allocated to trans-
European energy infrastructure for the period 2014 to
2020. Figure 38 illustrates some of the key congested areas
to be upgraded.
Such an approach in India would require close col-
laboration among states, and the recognition of projects
of mutual benefit. Collaboration already has strong roots,
in the Regional Power Committees, but would need to be
deepened.
Other approaches that may provide useful learning
opportunities include the Multi Value Project Portfolio
approach used by the Mid-continent Independent System
Operator in the United States. The California Independent
System Operator, meanwhile, accepts bids for approved
transmission planning projects.
It is important to note, however, that because transmis-
sion planning and development can take a long period of
time, it’s all too possible for unforeseen events to emerge
if a piecemeal approach is taken. For example, extensive
transmission network planning to manage wind power
plants did not prepare German system operators for the
extraordinary explosion of solar PV capacity at the distribu-
tion level that resulted from an attractive FIT.
The unexpected can also arise from the more conven-
tional power sector: since the success of the CREZ ap-
proach in Texas discussed above, intra-zonal congestion in
west Texas has soared because of load growth from oil and
gas development.
Excessive caution relating to fears of variability may
delay connection of power plants unnecessarily while Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 79
network upgrades are made. Effective February 2011, wind
power plants in the United Kingdom are offered connection
dates based on the time taken to complete their connec-
tion to the grid, and ahead of the completion of any wider
transmission system reinforcements required under security
standards.
41
International experiences suggest that the first task when
considering large-scale grid development is to acquire reli-
able data of the need for it. In the process of developing
this roadmap, it became apparent that the true extent of
congestion on the ISTS is unknown, although most stake-
holders assumed that it was heavily congested, as discussed
previously. This information is a critical need: without it,
high-voltage grid plans will have no basis in fact.
7.4. Paying for New Transmission
With holistic planning can also come a more holistic
understanding of costs. The additionality of RE transmis -
sion needs should be properly identified so that costs can
be apportioned accordingly; but RE is not the only cause
of grid development needs, and co-benefits to the wider
system should be taken into account. These benefits are not
easy to establish; they may include aspects highlighted in
41 It is acknowledged that connecting generators ahead of the
completion of these wider works may result in additional
constraints on the system operation, the cost of which is
socialised.
Source: https://www.entsoe.eu/major-projects/ten-year-network-development-plan/tyndp-2012/Pages/default.aspx
Figure 38
TYNDP 2012: Projects of Pan-European Significance (2017–2022) Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 80
Figure 36, above, such as trade, greater ability to manage
variability, and energy security. The cost burden is therefore
similarly hard to allocate.
Similarly, the costing of new transmission for RE should
not be considered in isolation from other renewable energy
integration costs, such as balancing, and investments that
may be needed in due course to maintain the adequacy of
power capacity. For example, an investment in grid infra-
structure may contribute to smoothing the variability of
VRE at the system level, and thus reduce balancing and
adequacy costs.
usually calculated on a MW basis, as highlighted at the
beginning of the chapter. This is practicable for owners of
power plants that operate around the clock, but may be too
onerous for, for example, a wind power plant with a rated
capacity of 100 MW, but a CUF of 35 percent.
Stakeholders highlighted that in some parts of the coun-
try there may be periods where in contiguous months, out-
put is just five to ten percent of rated capacity. If charging
were done on a MWh basis, as some stakeholders suggest,
the revenue to the owners of such lines would be minimal.
Furthermore, it is, to say the least, unlikely that compet-
ing, commercial developers of RE power plant will collabo-
rate and share the risk of constructing substantial transmis-
sion assets.
Stakeholders pointed out that, given that central gov-
ernment intervenes to establish links to new, conventional
UMPPs, it would seem unlikely that the same approach
would not be applied to RE power plants of similar scale.
Thus it seems likely that the cost of new transmission assets
could be socialised either to taxpayers or ratepayers.
In 2009, the United Kingdom adopted a comparable
approach to relieve offshore wind farm developers of the
risk that grid connection would be hindered/delayed. New
transmission lines are built at the public expense, the cost
of which is passed on to ratepayers. Would-be Offshore
Transmission Operators submit tenders in competition
for operating licenses for these lines, which is intended to
ensure least cost and delay to the developers of actual wind
power plants. At present nine such Offshore Transmission
Operator agreements are in place.
42

7.5. Summary
Many stakeholders cited congestion as a primary block-
age to greater RE deployment. Some stakeholders claim
that congestion occurs at the intrastate level, blocking the
evacuation of electricity from power plants; others claim
that congestion of the ISTS is blocking the wheeling of
power further afield in times of local surplus.
It remains unclear where congestion is actually occur-
ring, or if curtailment is caused by technical or market fac-
tors. In discussions, both are confused routinely. The extent
of congestion both locally and intrastate is a critical area for
analysis and should have high priority, as it will have bear-
Transmission
System cost
of integration
System
adequacy
Balancing
Figure 39
Holistic View of Integration Costs
The construction of new lines may take two to five years,
whereas the construction of a new solar PV power plant
may only take a year or less. From this point of view it is
logical in a centrally planned approach to commence grid
construction some time before the PV power plant. How-
ever, the installation of new lines when certainty of their
eventual use is absent raises important questions.
1. Who will pay to construct them, given a (present)
absence of users?
2. What business model will offer the least risk of
not recouping those costs, and the best returns to
investors?
3. How should costs be recouped?
Private investment in the construction of new lines
to high RE resource areas would depend simply on the
revenue that owners of such lines would derive from their
use. Wheeling charges – charged by the (public) owner of
the grid to private generators for use of their system – are
42 See: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications-and-updates/
offshore-transmission-factsheet Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 81
ing on new grid needs that will take time to deliver.
More complete planning of transmission can also help
manage the variability characteristic of some renewables.
The more dispersed wind and solar power plants are, the
less correlated and the smoother their aggregated output,
reducing the cost of balancing and the need for additional
flexibility.
In addition, the zoning approach may also: (1) enable
access to the highest wind speed, (2) facilitate the identi-
fication of portfolio of projects likely to be of interest to
larger investors, (3) optimise the CUFs of new transmis-
sion assets, (4) facilitate planning of solar and wind power
plants concurrently, (5) manage land availability and access
infrastructure needs, (6) encourage streamlining of permit-
ting and grid connection procedures, and (7) reduce the
risk of curtailment.
Although international practise suggests that the plan-
ning of renewable and conventional power plants is essen-
tial, however, it also highlights the need to remain flexible.
One way to do this is to revisit plans regularly in the light
of technology and other developments.
International experience suggests that the cost of large-
scale transmission developments should account also for
potential benefits in terms of reduced balancing needs, as
well as their impact on the capacity value of the connected
variable power plants. But in any case, new transmission
may need to preempt generation, as it takes longer to build.
This raises important questions as to the financing of such
projects.
Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 82
8. System Reliability with VRE at Scale
T
he capacity and location of the grid is a matter
for careful consideration and planning. It is
the vehicle through which power and load
are brought into balance, and that balance is
maintained.
Transmission and distribution networks are essential to
move RE from where it is generated to the load. As dis-
cussed in Chapter 7, a large-scale transmission grid can
also bring about considerable benefit in terms of reducing
the extent of variability of output from wind and solar PV
power plants and in terms of increasing access to flexibility
resources in adjacent states.
This chapter looks at the other part of the integration
story: the ways in which high penetrations of variable
renewables affect the operation of the system and the ways
in which system operation can be altered to manage it in
order to bring about a reliable and cost-efficient supply of
clean energy.
The physics of integrating VRE is less well understood
in some quarters than financial or market aspects. Conse-
quently, although renewable energy is advocated strongly,
and financial mechanisms to support its deployment are
much discussed, the perhaps less well understood system
operation issues tend to be overlooked.
One senior stakeholder in system operation stated, “It
scares me that land and funds are offered without address-
ing [these] issues. Anything that is not priced does not get
the necessary focus, such as flexibility, reliability.”
Indeed, stakeholders often pointed out that the design
of financial support mechanisms should account for the
resulting effects on system operation. One mechanism will
differ from another in terms of the technologies stimulated
to deploy, the range of system challenges they represent,
their locations, and their capacity (as discussed in Chapter
2). For example, some stakeholders have suggested that the
AD mechanism may have encouraged wind turbines that
are harder to manage than those stimulated by the GBI.
Others highlighted that there are no reliability standards
to express the acceptability (or not) of power interruptions
to consumers. Such standards recognise the trade-off be-
tween the high marginal expense of the last power plant(s)
needed to maintain absolute reliability of supply, and the
value of those few hours/days when power may be lost. The
situation in India is quite different. The obligation on Dis-
coms to serve all their customers all the time is not upheld,
and outages are at present a part of everyday life.
Internationally, there are two somewhat separate con-
cepts within “reliability.” Operational reliability is mainly
about resource adequacy and determining reserve require-
ments to cover uncertainty and variability. Contingency
reliability is the ability of the system to recover and main-
tain stability after faults and loss of large transmission or
generation elements.
Grid Code-related standards could help with both is-
sues. The Indian Electricity Grid Code
43
is the right venue
for addressing such topics as low- and high-voltage ride-
through provisions, voltage and reactive power (VAR) sup-
port, frequency and inertial response support, and reserves
response.
Grid discipline in India is somewhat relaxed relative to
international experiences, and stakeholders expressed con-
cern during the roadmap process that in such a system, the
introduction of still more variability and uncertainty on the
supply side would be a considerable additional burden.
Meanwhile, although must-run status of renewable en-
ergy is provided for in statute, in practise it is very hard to
know if this status is maintained. The causes and frequency
of curtailment of RE plants are far from being clear (see
Chapter 5 on operational risks).
A number of public bodies are involved in the operation
of the power system. In an increasing number of mainly
wealthier countries, system operation is independent of
transmission and generator ownership. This is not the case
in India, however, and system operation is itself shared
considerably between the state LDCs and Discoms.
43 IEGC, 2010. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 83
8.1. Power System Operation
A power system has to ensure that the production and
consumption of electricity is almost perfectly balanced at
every moment, in all parts of the system. Every convention-
al generator operates synchronously with every other, and
all generate according to the needs of the machinery and
domestic appliances (the load) that they power.
This physical link is expressed by the system frequency,
which needs to be maintained. If generation rises above
consumption, the frequency will rise. If it fails to keep pace
with consumption, frequency will fall. As generation and
consumption vary continuously in fact, the frequency is
constantly oscillating above and below the target or “set
point” of 50 or 60 Hertz.
The objective of the system operator is to keep frequency
within this specified range, and to minimise the number of
excursions from it, to prevent damage to the power system
as well as load-side equipment. This is done in a timescale
of minutes to hours. Of course, effective planning can make
system operation easier,
44
but here we focus on the period
just before electricity is produced and consumed.
When above the set point, production will need to be
decreased, and vice versa. But there are alternative options
to maintain balance: for example, demand can be con-
trolled to fit with production; electricity can be stored in a
hydro reservoir, battery, and in a range of other ways under
development; and electricity can be imported and exported.
All these options, if available, offer a measure of elasticity
between production and demand, known as flexibility.
8.2. System Balancing Today
Balancing in India is overseen by a state LDC, and is
done by each state as a whole. Given that some states are
very large indeed – comparable to many countries in scale
– this is already a very significant task.
The state LDC oversees the commitment of units to
generate electricity at specified times. This UC may be
done fortnightly (although this varies from state to state) on
the basis of schedules communicated to the state LDC by
public and private generators. The state LDC manages these
schedules, updating UC accordingly; it also compiles actual
production data, which is metered.
In many countries, a system operator will have a num-
ber of tools at his disposal, which can be used to maintain
the balance of supply and demand as the two sides of the
equation fluctuate. Chief among these is usually access at
minimal notice to “operational reserve” power and energy.
In other words, small quantities of additional generation
are held in reserve. These can be “spinning,” in which the
generation is synchronised to the grid and can respond very
quickly (ten minutes or less), or “non-spinning,” in which
generation is not grid-synchronised but can respond within
a specified period of time.
45
In India, only one of these tools is commonly available
– load-shedding. There are no reserves as such maintained
specifically to manage system frequency. Shedding load is
done elsewhere in the world as well, when a system has a
deficit of power. As India is in chronic power deficit, it is
hardly surprising that load shedding is the only real option,
although, as discussed in Chapter 6, there are other reasons
why load-shedding is so common that relate to the financial
health of Discoms supplying the electricity to consumers.
When, for example at night, supply outstrips demand,
the other option available is to curtail that supply. “Backing
down” conventional – particularly coal – power plants may
be technically, economically, and politically constrained,
with the result that in some cases, such as Tamil Nadu,
wind power is seen to be the cause of unwanted surplus,
and is curtailed accordingly (data on exactly how much this
is happening was not available at the time of writing). This
is observed in other countries also, such as China.
Although not strictly speaking a balancing tool, the
Unscheduled Interchange (UI) mechanism was designed
to encourage grid discipline, and thus does make the job
of the state LDC easier. Generators “dispatch” themselves,
according to the production schedule they submit to the
state LDC, but prior to the UI there was insufficient penalty
for departing from this schedule. Consequently, generators
tended to dispatch themselves solely to maximise finan-
cial benefit to themselves, without taking into account the
needs of the system.
UI was introduced in 2006 to provide a form of auto-
matic balancing in that power plants were incentivised
financially to reduce production as system frequency rose
above the set point, and to increase as it fell below.
46
On
44 For example, moving of demand to the nighttime trough, as
in Karnataka, to reduce the extent of daytime demand peaks.
45 Reserves may be positive or negative (the ability to reduce
supply quickly), and may be provided by flexible demand or
by storage resources also.
46 UI provides a response on the part of generators on a similar
timescale to Tertiary Reserves in power systems (outside
India) with dedicated operational reserves. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 84
February 17, 2014, a new Deviation Settlement Mechanism
came into force, replacing the UI regulations of 2009. The
new mechanism is intended to improve grid discipline and
remove opportunities for excessive injection or withdrawal
of energy, including for commercial purpose.
Since January 2014, the entire Indian grid has been
synchronised. The northern, western, eastern, and north-
eastern grids were synchronised earlier, while the southern
was synchronised with the rest last of all. Although this is
a work in progress – flows between the two are still con-
strained – this greatly increases the scale of each system,
with important potential consequences for the ability of the
whole to absorb solar and wind power.
These include the smoothing effect of geographical ag-
gregation of variable output (wind and solar) power (see
Chapter 7), and other reasons discussed below. One senior
system operation official expressed it as being a major part
of the system’s ability to “absorb” wind and solar variability.
8.3. Additional Challenges With
Solar and Wind
Variability has been discussed in Chapter 7 to some ex-
tent in the context of planning the dispersal of such power
plants to minimise their aggregated variability. It is further
explored here in the context of managing variability in the
operational timeframe. Uncertainty is introduced here, as it
is inherently an operational issue.
Neither is new to the power sector, although histori-
cally variability has been an issue primarily on the demand
side, whereas uncertainty is primarily a supply-side issue.
System operators have for decades managed both.
8.3.1. Variability
Demand varies considerably within the day. Daily peak
may be twice the demand low in smaller systems, although
the difference tends to be smaller in larger systems, for ex-
ample, approximately 30 percent in northwest Europe.
47

Figure 40 shows the average daily load curve of the
country as a whole in 2009, for each month of the year.
Load is lowest in the small hours of the morning, rang-
ing from approximately 79,000 MW to 88,000 MW, rising
to an evening peak at approximately 8 pm, ranging from
94,000 MW to 102,000 MW.
This also demonstrates the significant variations in de-
mand over the year, which is illustrated more clearly in Fig-
ure 41. This shows the load in Maharashtra over one year,
based on hourly data, fluctuating daily around the 10-GW
mark in August to around the 13-GW mark in April.
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
105,000
100,000
95,000
90,000
85,000
80,000
75,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Figure 40
Average Daily Load Curves in India for Each Month of the Year (2009)
Megawatts
47 IEA, 2014.
Source: LBNL, 2013 Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 85
8.3.2. Uncertainty
Uncertainty is known in system operation also. Although
the output of conventional power plants is more certain
more of the time than that of variable RE plants, power
systems are designed to accommodate what will be in fact
very large fluctuations when such a plant does fail sudden-
ly. These failures, not only of generator but of transmission
and distribution lines also, can have major impacts on the
overall system.
For example, on July 30 and 31, 2012, India suffered what
may have been the largest blackouts in history. Both events
were triggered by transmission faults during a period of ex-
tremely high demand, owing to the late arrival of the mon-
soon, while the late rains were also responsible for reduced
hydropower capacity. A total of 32 GW of power plants were
shut down across 22 states in the north and east of the country.
Unexpected events aside, both load and supply are ex-
pected to be uncertain to some extent. Power plants often
deviate from their production schedule. Although precisely
when they do this is not predicted, it is nevertheless antici-
pated that they will, with a certain probability, and this is
factored into the planning of the system and of its operation.
Forecasting of demand is a mature and refined art, and
mean absolute error from the day-ahead forecast in OECD
countries is typically only one to two percent. But where
load is particularly sensitive to weather conditions, for ex-
ample, where air-conditioning represents a large proportion
of demand, errors can be much greater.
On top of this, a range of events can cause demand
to differ considerably from what is expected, or forecast.
Figure 42 shows one such event in Brazil in 2010, during
the football World Cup.
15,000
14,000
13,000
12,000
11,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Megawatts
01/01/200901/02/200901/03/200901/04/200901/05/200901/06/200901/07/200901/08/200901/09/200901/10/200901/11/200901/12/2009
Figure 41
Seasonal Fluctuations in Demand in
Maharashtra (2009)
Halftime
+3,300 MW/6 min
2,410 MW/14 min
End of game
11,800 MW/28 min
4,200 MW less
peak load
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
Demand (MW)
00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00
Time
Typical Day
Brazil vs. Chile
Figure 42
Brazil: Sudden Drop in Load, 28 June 2010 (Football World Cup Match)
Source: (IEA, 2014)
Before the game
6,420 MW/40 min
Source: LBNL, 2013 Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 86
8.4. Managing Variability and
Uncertainty
The events of July 2012 did not relate solely to faulty
hardware. The massive job of managing the Indian power
system requires a commensurate level of human resources.
This will only increase as the variable output technolo-
gies such as wind and solar PV become more common.
Many stakeholders signaled a major shortage of qualified
personnel in state LDCs. As mentioned previously, the scale
of the system they manage may be enormous, stretching
personnel considerably. Finding, grooming, and retaining
staff is a challenge, and particularly so with regard to RE
expertise. Staff may be unfamiliar with a host of techniques
that are evolving fast around the globe for the management
of variable renewables, as discussed below.
A major new report from the IEA, The Power of
Transformation: Wind, Sun and the Economics of Flexible Power
Systems,
48
suggests that at a share of annual generation
greater than two to three percent, wind power and/or
solar PV is likely to increase supply-side variability and
uncertainty. However, this will be minimal relative to the
variability and uncertainty experienced already by the
system as a whole. And as it is overall fluctuations that
must be managed, the additional impact of the VRE plants
will be nominal. This was the opinion of stakeholders
involved in system operation in in Karnataka, for example,
where wind penetration is at present considered to be of
limited impact in these terms.
As their share in power supply increases, however, their
contribution relative to other system components will be
proportionally greater, and there will indeed come a time
when system operation and planning needs to be changed
in order to reflect this.
Assuming the power system in the state has a strong
enough grid and is managed as a single entity, then it is
not the variation in output from a wind turbine or solar
PV module at any given time that must be balanced, but
rather the overall change in the system at that moment. In
other words, demand may be increasing as wind output
increases; this may be beneficial in terms of the balancing
challenge (and financial considerations aside). Alternatively,
the sun may be obscured by clouds just as demand is ris-
ing, which is likely to increase the balancing task.
In Karnataka, for example, 38 percent of the load (the
agricultural consumers) falls away at night, and stakehold-
ers reported that it is already a challenge to manage such a
drop in load, with conventional generators forced to ramp
down fast to their minimum stable operating level. This
minimum output level, perhaps 40 percent of rated capac-
ity, perhaps more, represents an important constraint on a
power system’s ability to absorb variable electricity.
In other words, when these plants are on the “floor,”
short of turning them off altogether, with its own associated
challenges, or exporting the surplus, there may be no load
for surplus wind production to meet, and curtailment may
be required at such times.
Certain system operation stakeholders felt that such
non-complementarity of wind power output schedule and
load was a far greater challenge than congestion of the grid,
for example. In contrast, the same stakeholders found that
solar PV output, coming during the day when demand is
higher, was actually beneficial in terms of system operation.
8.4.1. Visibility of Output
The simplest kind of forecasting is known as “persis-
tence” forecasting. The idea is very simply that the weather
will continue to do what it is doing now. If the system
operator knows how the individual turbines in a wind
power plant are behaving in real time, then on that basis it
can make a number of assumptions about output up to ap-
proximately two hours ahead. Similarly, solar output can be
forecast based on clear-sky indices.
49

If this appears rudimentary, the fact remains that at short
timescales it is a remarkably accurate rule of thumb. It also
underlines that system operation with variable power plants
is something of an “art” learned over time. Thus, visibility
of output is the second part of minimising the variability
challenge, as illustrated below.
48 IEA, 2014.
49 As used in the recent Western Wind and Solar Integration
Study Phase II, in the United States, for example, completed
in September 2013, and available at http://www.nrel.gov/
docs/fy13osti/55588.pdf.
1. Disperse RE
power plants
to smooth
variability and
uncertainty
2. Achieve
visibility of
output; use
forecasting in
system
operation
3. Develop
flexibility to
manage
variability in
system
operation
Figure 43
Managing Variability: Step Two Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 87
Unit-by-unit data are important because if a wind tur-
bine is not functioning for some reason, output will dif-
fer accordingly, and it will not be clear whether it was the
forecast that was at fault or the turbine(s).
International experiences suggest that performance
data already available to the operator of the wind power
plant through the supervisory control and data acquisi-
tion (SCADA) system should be made available to the
system operator on a minute-by-minute basis. Indeed, in
the United States, connection to the grid has recently been
made contingent on this commitment.
The need for real-time performance data may sound
banal, but it is in fact fundamental, and a need that is very
often not met in India today, where most wind/solar PV
power plant operators appear to be unwilling to commu-
nicate the availability of their power plants, let alone at the
unit level. This despite the fact that this is a requirement of
forecasting rules introduced in 2010.
In Tamil Nadu, for example, it appears that approxi-
mately half of wind plants do not share their performance
data with the state LDC. This is particularly a problem, as
many wind power plants, including smaller ones deployed
under the AD model before the system integration aspect
was really considered thoroughly, have been connected to
the low-voltage distribution grid, at 33 kV or less. At this
voltage level, the grid is operated passively, which is to say
pretty much left to its own devices.
As VRE is added to the grid, passive operation becomes
more and more problematic. At the moment when electric-
ity is actually delivered and consumed, the state LDC has
no knowledge of what these plants are doing. They have no
way of knowing for example, other than intuition, where
a given group of plants is operating at maximum, or has
tripped off the system. In contrast, most variable plant in
Gujarat, including all of its major new solar developments,
are connected at the 66-kV level or above, their output
metered in real time and visible to the state LDC, which can
respond and plan ahead accordingly.
This was also the case in the United States, for example,
where previously there was no standard for exchanging
data between wind projects and system operators. Wind
companies were not familiar with the equipment needed,
and the exchange was not enforced.
One of the first countries to fully integrate the real-time
monitoring of wind and solar power output into its system
operation was Spain. In 2006, Red Eléctrica de España, the
system operator, established the Control Centre of Renew-
able Energies (CECRE). This is highlighted in Box 2.
The Green Corridors Report published by the MoP in
July 2012 proposes the establishment of Renewable Energy
Management Centres (REMC) in seven RE resource-rich
states: Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat,
Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Jammu and Kashmir. It sug-
gests that these would work in tandem with the respective
state LDC. It also proposes REMCs at the regional level, in
the northern, western, and southern regions where resourc-
es are strongest, and finally an REMC at the national level.
REMCs might help inform dispatch decisions, if these
are taken relatively close to real-time. For example, the
REMC could signal LDCs to reduce output from coal-fired
plants to fit better with the output of VRE plants if there is
T
he CECRE was established to manage a surge
in deployment of wind power in Spain. Its
objective is to monitor, control, and maximise
RE production, while maintaining the reliability
of the system as a whole. CECRE is located in the
headquarters of the system operator, and is an integral
part of system operation. It consists of an operational
desk at which operators continuously supervise
RE production. A number of renewable energy
control centres around the country collect real-time
information and channel to the CECRE desk, which is
able to act as a single point of contact with operators
of other parts of the system.
The Renewable Energy Control Centre in Spain
The use of automated control software, and Infor-
mation and Control Technology more generally, has
been a key factor in the success of the centre. The
main tool used by CECRE operators, GEMAS, ac-
cesses the real-time information received in CECRE
and uses it to determine whether the present genera-
tion scenario is admissible for the system according to
a number of security criteria. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 88
a risk of surplus otherwise.
Stakeholder responses to the REMC concept during the
roadmap process differed considerably. It was commonly
agreed that their establishment should focus on practical
support to the system operator. State LDCs at present have
limited technological capability in terms of monitoring and
managing the grid. Automated decision-support systems,
standard in the western countries, have not been made
available to Indian LDCs.
The cost of doing so would be minimal in the scheme
of overall system investment, but it appears to be unclear
whose responsibility it would be to install such equipment.
Some felt that the LDC should itself identify its needs and
attempt to secure a budget from within state government
funds, and felt that the REMC should be integrated with
the state LDC.
Others felt that the REMC approach, although perhaps
valuable, should be taken quite separately from the LDC,
while remaining in close contact with it. Indeed, the Green
Corridors Report in its brief allusions to the concept does
appear to suggest the two entities to be separate.
Additional information on the operation of VRE plants
is certainly valuable. But it is worth considering the form
in which this might be achieved. It could be argued that
an entity separate from the LDC would represent another
bureaucratic layer to fit in the already busy operational
timeframe. An alternative approach might be to add dis-
plays with wind and solar output over time, and expected
wind and solar forecasts at the relevant LDC, along with
trained personnel.
8.4.2. Forecasting Changes in Output
Past performance and present output are very valuable to
enhanced understanding of how variable renewable power
plants are likely to behave. State-of-the-art forecasting is an
important step further. Forecasting has two main func-
tions: (1) to inform decision-making related to the trade of
electricity from wind and solar plants, and (2) to facilitate
scheduling of power plants and the operation of the system
in the most effective and reliable manner (Figure 44).
System operation is more concerned with large, infrequent
errors, whereas owners will care about output errors that
may even out at the system level.
Owner forecasts may be of utility scale or aggregated
smaller plants, but the objective is the same: to give a clear
picture of output so that owners can accurately predict
volume and timing. It also provides the basis for calculat-
ing imbalances when actual production does not match the
forecast.
The second function is to enable the system operator to
anticipate the supply-demand imbalance for any period,
and plan accordingly. A few hours’ notice of how wind and
solar plants are likely to behave can greatly enhance the
operator’s ability to manage the system. Depending – cru-
cially – on the flexibility of grid operation practises, this
notice can reduce the need for very short-term flexibility
(such as load-shedding or paid reserves), so reducing
balancing costs; the operator can instead redispatch other,
less flexible, power plants accordingly, those that are able to
respond within the timeframe of the forecast (dispatchable
power plants often have significant startup time require-
ments). In this way it can significantly increase the ability of
a system to absorb variable output from these power plants.
Variations in the weather and therefore output can be
predicted in terms of extent and timing, but not perfectly,
and there are a number of ways in which local climatic
conditions can affect the output, particularly of wind power
plants. This can lead to significant under- or overproduc-
tion relative to expected. The greater the share of such
power plants in the system, the greater the impact of such
deviations from what is expected.
This is more pronounced in wind power output, which
Forecasting
techniques
Market and cost
allocation
benefits
Visibility of
departures from
schedule
Cost identification
and allocation
System operation
planning
benefits
Cost reduction
Figure 44
Use and Value of Forecasting
Early warning of
needs enables
scheduling of slower
balancing resources Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 89
does not share the underlying regularity of solar power
output, although short-term variability of solar PV can be
high in frequently clouded areas. If an RE power plant is
expected to submit a forecast of its output as a schedule,
and if deviations from this are subject to penalties, then this
will also have significant impact on the profitability of the
power station.
Similarly to the effect of aggregation on overall variability
of output (the smoothing effect discussed in Chapter 7), the
prediction of when that output will occur is also more ac-
curate when it covers the aggregated output of many power
plants rather than a single site. Figure 45 illustrates the
difference in output forecast error between one and several
wind power sites.
Forecasts are more accurate when the forecast horizon is
short. For example, in Spain, hour-ahead forecasts are ap-
proximately three times as accurate as forecasts made of the
day-ahead, as illustrated in Figure 46.
Being a younger technology, it is not surprising that solar
PV power forecasts are less mature than those for wind
power. Issues include being able to predict the formation
of clouds day-ahead or longer in advance, and forecasting
in aggregate of behind-the-meter solar systems. It can have
very high accuracy indeed, however, particularly during
clear weather when output can simply be determined by
the position of the sun in the sky.
India does not have specific reserve practises or a formal
market for reserves, sometimes referred to as an Ancillary
Services Market. Stakeholders have suggested that such
an opportunity to ensure sufficient reserves against system
balancing requirements may arise as the share of solar and
wind power plants continues to grow. Reserves practises
worldwide are evolving rapidly to accommodate increasing
amounts of VRE.
50

Should ancillary services provision emerge, through an
organised market or otherwise, the value of forecasting
will again be apparent, in identifying what the requirement
for reserves will be, and when. In this respect, it is worth
emphasising that forecasts are only as useful as they are
considered reliable by the system operator.
Forecast quality has seen major improvements in recent
years. For example, in Spain, the “mean absolute forecast
error,” the key metric for forecast accuracy, has reduced
considerably over the last five years, as illustrated in Figure
46. Forecasts looking ahead one to three hours show only
half the forecast error of four years previously, while day-
ahead forecast errors have reduced by a third. This is a
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Forecast Error
Increase in Accuracy
0 6 12 18 24 30 36
Forecast horizon (hours ahead)
Figure 45
Impact of Forecast Aggregation on Accuracy
1 site
4 sites
Source: Holttinen at al., 2006 (from IEA, 2014)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Mean absolute error/
average production
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
Forecast horizon (hours before real time)
Figure 46
Improvements in Wind Forecast Accuracy in Spain
Source: (IEA, 2014)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
50 Active monitoring of international developments may be a useful action for stakeholders. “Task 25” of the IEA’s Wind
Implementing Agreement is a principal source of expertise in this area. See: http://www.ieawind.org/task_25.html. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 90
consequence of improved techniques, but also of increased
visibility of output, which may be achieved through the use
of control centres (Box 2).
Spain uses multiple forecasting companies, and produces
ensemble forecasts based on the historical accuracy of
forecast companies in those particular weather conditions.
Alternatively, one can use a single forecasting company that
produces dozens, even hundreds of forecasts by altering
inputs into the forecast.
Again, historical data are used to “train” the forecast. The
use of historical data highlights the need to be sure that
times of curtailment and lost production from unscheduled
or scheduled outages, from a turbine to the whole plant,
be accounted for. Otherwise, “bad” data would be used
for training the forecast, with a corresponding impact on
forecast accuracy.
8.4.3. Forecasting in India
The CERC, in its Indian Electricity Grid Code of 2010,
mandated forecasting and scheduling for grid-connected
wind power plants of 10 MW or more commissioned after
May 2010, the intention of which was to provide state
LDCs with more visibility of wind power generation.
The power plants concerned are to provide a schedule
for each 15-minute operational block. This schedule can
be updated a number of times, but within three hours of
the time of delivery, no further updates are allowed, and
deviations from the final schedule may not be greater than
30 percent, subject to penalties. This cut-off point gravely
interferes with forecasting, effectively removing persistence-
based forecasting from the forecasting toolbox. This fore-
casting requirement is suspended at the time of writing.
The CERC has also introduced a Renewable Regulatory
Fund Mechanism in 2013, designed to provide support to
states having to procure (expensive) balancing power, or
paying high UI penalties, in the balancing of variable power
plants. At the time of writing, the commercial framework
under the Renewable Regulatory Fund Mechanism has
been suspended.
Wind power developer concerns expressed by stakehold-
ers were essentially twofold: (1) that forecasting is required
at the level of the individual pooling station, rather than at
the state level, for example, and (2) that deviations from
schedules were too costly.
As highlighted above, forecast accuracy is greater over
larger areas. Stakeholders suggested therefore that forecast-
ing ought to be at the state level, rather than the “pooling
station” level as currently required. It might also be added
that forecasts should be integrated into overall planning of
system operation, rather than being managed in isolation.
However, the necessary resources in state LDCs, not to
mention the establishment of REMCs, may be prerequisite.
Stakeholders pointed out that aggregating forecasts at the
state level might complicate the allocation of penalties. Still
others suggested that this might be resolved – along with
the financial burden on developers generally – by socialis-
ing the costs of imbalances. There are a number of ap-
proaches to paying for imbalances worldwide. Generators
in Denmark are paid the spot market price for imbalances
that support overall system balance, and charged for imbal-
ance that exacerbates system imbalance.
Secondly, the extent of penalties arising from deviations
from schedules has caused apprehensions among develop-
ers, to the extent that in many cases the requirement is
simply ignored. Indeed, such was the distrust of the mecha-
nism that according to the system operation stakeholders,
even during the test period for the mechanism, during
which no penalties were payable, it was ignored.
International experiences suggest that the value of forecast-
ing to system operation in India is clear. The more it is inte-
grated into system operation practises, the easier it will be to
manage a system with large shares of wind and solar power.
The priority given to its implementation should not be sub-
ject to decisions on how the costs of imbalances should be
allocated (i.e., the market value of forecasting should not be
confused with the benefit to system operation).
Finally, it should be added that forecasting is only as
good as the underlying data. Good quality meso-scale
wind and solar data are needed, with a reasonably fine
geographic resolution.
8.4.4. Impact of the Banking Mechanism
Under the banking mechanism, large consumer owners
of captive power plants connected to the grid elsewhere
(i.e., not behind-the-meter) are able to “bank” electricity
in the grid. This means that they may consume electricity
when their power plant is not producing, and vice versa,
subject to a schedule.
This mechanism is particularly valuable to wind power
plants, whose output cannot easily be controlled. Indeed,
preferential banking charges for wind power plants have
been used as an indirect financial stimulus to their deploy-
ment in, for example, Tamil Nadu, where more than a third
of installed wind capacity is of the captive variety.
Similarly, OA contract holders can take advantage of the
same mechanism to manage inconsistencies between pro- Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 91
duction and consumption schedules.
In both cases, the system operator is left with the respon-
sibility for balancing this temporary discrepancy. It may
therefore be appropriate for OA generators to provide data
to the operator for visibility and forecasting. If OA contracts
multiply for RE, it may also be appropriate to consider the
additional balancing resources to manage their output.
As it is the Discom (or the Transco in the higher-voltage
transmission system) that establishes the rules for banking
(under the oversight of the SERC), this may help explain
why OA has had limited success at the intrastate level: Dis-
coms may see VRE OA contracts as a source of additional
complexity, and thus undesirable.
8.5. Managing Integration With
Greater Flexibility
Chapter 7 focussed on the importance of dispersal of
VRE power plants, to smooth variability and uncertainty to
an extent that corresponds with the scale of the area over
which plants are dispersed. So far in this chapter, stake-
holder views on the importance of visibility and forecasting
of output has been the focus.
There is a third step in the management of wind and
solar power plants as highlighted below. This is to make
available a maximum of flexible resources for balancing.
These flexible resources are already present to manage
demand-side variability. However, their availability for use
in managing supply-side variability and uncertainty will be
limited by grid congestion and market design.
The variability and uncertainty associated with increas-
ing shares of wind and solar generation necessitate the cy-
cling of other power generation plants to keep the electric
grid in balance. Put simply, 1 MW of variability in the “net
load,” up or down, requires a commensurate response of 1
MW increase or decrease of supply and/or consumption in
the same balancing area.
51
That response is known as “flexibility,” and a truly flex-
ible power system is one in which all the major constituents
– generators, consumers, and transmitters – operate dynami-
cally in concert, responding to changes in one another. In
India at present, the opposite is now true. As one stakeholder
put it, “Unconventional and conventional segments…
operate as two separate, water-tight compartments.”
8.5.1. Sources of Flexibility
Flexibility is traditionally considered to reside in the
ability to vary the output of certain “dispatchable” power
plants (e.g., coal, gas, hydro). Coal-fired power stations in
India are generally considered to be inflexible, although
further data are required as to their technical abilities to
ramp up and down, against time. Options exist to retrofit
coal-fired power stations for lower minimum stable operat-
ing level capability.
Stakeholders in Tamil Nadu noted that the slow ramping
ability of coal plants was the principal cause of the curtail-
ment of wind power plants. Unable to leave the state for
market design reasons, wind power can ramp up only to
the maximum extent to which coal stations can ramp down
– their minimum stable operating limit. Beyond this level,
with no further space in the system for wind power, it is
curtailed.
Power plant cycling includes ramping up and down,
shut down and start up, and operating the power plant at
part load. European values of the cycling parameters of
some conventional technologies are shown in Table 6.
Power plants are dispatched not only based on their
marginal cost of operation, but also according to their abil-
ity to respond to changes in system requirements. Cycling
can introduce additional wear and tear on thermal power
plant equipment, resulting in increased costs, and also
leads to changes in emissions. The extent of these impacts
on costs and emissions depends on technology and power
plant characteristics.
According to Western Wind and Solar Integration Study,
which analysed the impacts of up to 33-percent variable
renewables penetration in the Western Interconnect of the
United States, the increase in fossil power plant emissions per
unit output from cycling to accommodate variable renew-
ables were minor, and more than offset by the overall reduc-1. Disperse RE
power plants
to smooth
variability and
uncertainty
2. Achieve
visibility of
output; use
forecasting in
system
operation
3. Develop
flexibility to
manage
variability in
system
operation
Figure 47
Managing Variability: Step Three
51 The term “net load” in this context is used to signify the
demand (load) that remains to be supplied (by other sources
of power, such as coal-fired plants or imports) or reduced by
demand response, once VRE output has been accounted for. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 92
tion of CO2, NOx and SOx. Operating costs of fossil power
plants were shown to increase by two to five percent per
kWh on average, which were small compared to the overall
fuel savings associated with wind and solar generation.
However, results are likely to differ in jurisdictions with
different generation mixes, especially those with very large
shares of coal generation. Whereas hydroelectric power
plants are capable of fast ramp rates, there are limitations to
hydro ramping to protect aquatic systems and downstream
communities. Integration studies could significantly con-
tribute toward the understanding of such costs and impacts
to the overall system.
Existing gas plants in India are currently operating well
below capacity owing to high fuel cost. The value they offer
in terms of flexibility may offset some of the difference in
cost. For example, the Dabhol plant (22 GW LNG plant
in Maharashtra built by Enron) is presently subsidised Rs
3 to 3.5 crores per annum, and has never generated above
40-percent rated capacity.
Flexibility can also be found on the demand side, re-
ducing demand in response to availability of supply. The
load-shedding experience of India is highly relevant in this
regard, although demand-side response in the balancing
context is perhaps better thought of as interrupting supply
of electricity without interrupting the services it supplies.
For example, short, staggered interruptions of supply
to commercial cooling applications over a wide area could
have considerable short-term reduction in aggregated de-
mand, with no impact on the service provided as the cool
store is insulated against heat loss. As with a power plant,
the cost to the consumer of providing this service could be
monetised and marketed.
Stakeholders in Maharashtra revealed interesting
experience in shifting time-of-use of electricity to more
convenient times, albeit in a longer-term, less dynamic
manner than that described above. To manage fast-growing
industrial load, the SERC has brought about cheaper
nighttime rates for industrial consumers (from 22 hours to
6 hours).
The intended and achieved effect has been to shift in-
dustrial demand into the nighttime hours to some extent.
But it has also been beneficial to manage peak wind output,
which tends to be higher at night. As the nighttime tariff is
still higher than the wind FIT, the Discom does not suffer
reduced revenue, and there is little difficulty with absorbing
present levels of wind power production in the state.
Finally, energy storage technologies may be available in
India in the form of pumped hydro, which can be charged
when electricity is in surplus, and discharged when fast
flexibility is needed. Given that such resources are rare in
India, and spatially restricted, it should be noted that stor-
age is far from being the only solution to the integration of
wind and solar power, as is often claimed.
8.5.2. Using Flexible Resources Better
Flexible resources must be available when they are
needed. Transmission congestion was cited most frequently
by stakeholders as the main potential constraint on
flexibility (See Chapter 7 discussion), although there is
insufficient evidence as of yet to prove that the ISTS is in
fact congested. If not, then just a few percent of ramping
capability in coal power plants around the country could
represent an enormous flexibility resource.
Grid congestion aside, stakeholders consistently pointed
out that collaboration among balancing areas will not only
reduce aggregated variability and increase accuracy of fore-
casting, but also offer the chance to share flexible resources
in the balancing challenge.
Collaboration among balancing areas is of particular
value when system operators have access to reserves they
Table 6
Generation Characteristics of Selected Conventional Technologies
Nuclear Coal Lignite
Natural Gas Combined
Cycle Technology
Pumped
Storage
Start-up time “cold”
Start-up time “warm”
Load gradient “nominal output”
Minimal shutdown time
Minimal possible load
(% of maximum capacity)
~ 40 hr ~ 6 h ~ 10 h < 2 h ~ 0.1 h
~ 40 hr ~ 3 h ~ 6 h < 1.5 h ~ 0.1 h
~ 5%/min ~ 2%/min ~ 2%/min ~ 4%/min > 40%/min
None None None None ~ 10 h
50% 40% 40% < 50% ~ 15%
Source: EurElectric data 2011 Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 93
can call on. For example, in the United States, in numerous
analyses the sharing of balancing resources among previ-
ously distinct balancing areas has been shown to reduce the
need for them, on one timescale or another.
But Indian state LDCs do not maintain reserves in this
way. Indeed, almost all power plant generation is tied into
long-term PPAs that emphasise maximum output over
all other benefits. And not surprisingly, given the chronic
power shortages in the country.
If greater balancing resources are needed already to
manage wind and solar electricity, then it may be neces-
sary somehow to extract some of that PPA-bound electricity
from existing agreements in order to keep it available for
balancing purposes.
This may be less problematic than it may appear. Many
stakeholders have pointed to recent experiences of the
conventional utility in Germany, RWE, which has recently
posted losses for the first time since it was established in
the 1940s, as well as to the first signs that in India the con-
ventional base-load, around-the-clock, 24/7 business model
also may be being undermined by increasing penetrations
of prioritised wind and solar electricity.
Such conventional power plants – and for the remainder
of their operating lives – will remain important for the very
large capacity they represent. Consequently, losses in terms
of reduced electricity production might need to be compen-
sated by new revenue streams.
Stakeholders suggested that these new revenues may be
found by operators of conventional (and even variable) power
plants through participation in an ancillary market for reserve
power. Such a market does not exist today and it is not clear
as of yet that it is needed, but in theory at least this could pro-
vide an opportunity to maintain adequate reserves of power
(on a timescale of seconds to hours) through a capacity/avail-
ability payment (and possibly an energy payment).
Numerous examples of such markets exist around the
world. One good example is the Grid Control Collaboration
in Germany. But what about capacity needs over the longer
term? The extent of financial damage to the German utility is
so great that there are concerns that a large number of power
plants essential for meeting long-term peaks in electricity
demand may be mothballed or even permanently retired.
Where this is at risk of happening (and in India as a
whole, this day may still be far off) it may be necessary
to establish a market for long-term flexible capacity. Such
markets already exist and are under development, or under
consideration, in an increasing number of countries seeing
large-scale renewable energy investment.
When in electricity deficit, or with enormous demand
growth – both of which are the case in India as a whole –
such revenue issues are unlikely to be a problem: there is
more than enough load to go around. The state of Gujarat,
however, is in surplus. It has exceeded its RPO, so that pri -
oritised renewable energy is eating into the revenues of its
conventional power plants. In additional, large consumers
are moving to OA (see Chapter 6) and buying from outside
the state either bilaterally or through the exchanges. Con-
sequently, existing conventional plants are being backed
down to the extent that in March 2014 the state forbade the
purchase of electricity from outside the state.
8.5.3. Costing Additional Flexibility Needs
There remains however the task of assessing how much
flexibility exists at present and how much is needed to
provide for balancing the targeted deployment of renew-
ables. This is a complex task that would require close
collaboration between system operators and would require
complete transparency of the performance data gathered by
the operators of renewable power plants as well as data on
the technical capabilities of conventional power plants on a
unit-by-unit basis.
A number of studies have been carried out in the United
States, for example, in recent years, including the Western
Wind and Solar Integration Study, and the Eastern Wind
Integration and Transmission Study carried out for NREL.
More recently, the PJM Regional Transmission Operator
recently published a comprehensive impact assessment of
increased penetrations of wind and solar generation re-
sources on the operation of the PJM grid. The footprint of
the PJM Regional Transmission Operator covers all or part
of 13 states in the northeastern United States.
The main objectives were to determine the operational,
planning, and energy market effects of large-scale integra-
tion of wind and solar power in the PJM balancing area.
The study modeled the impacts of up to 30 percent wind
and solar electricity share in overall electricity, produced by
more than 100 GW of installed capacity, as perceived pos-
sible by 2026. Although the study highlighted a number of
transmission upgrades and operation aspects, it found that
no additional operating reserves would be required.
The implication of this is very important: that the
reserves already in existence to manage variability and
uncertainty in the system can also be used to manage new
variable power plants. This is quite contrary to the views
expressed by some stakeholders, in India and beyond, that
dedicated back-up is needed. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 94
8.6. Local System Benefits of RE
This chapter has focussed on the challenges of managing
variability and uncertainty. But stakeholders also acknowl-
edged the benefits of distributed generation, including
distributed renewables, in supporting the distribution grid
in which they are embedded, for example:
Voltage Support: Voltages at the end of long feeders –
distribution lines – can sag problematically. In Maharashtra
distributed renewables are providing valuable voltage sup-
port at weak points, feeders that may be as long as 40 to 50
kilometers.
Reliability through Island Mode: Distributed genera-
tion can support local reliability in other ways. If discreet
parts of the distribution grid can operate in “island” mode
when the surrounding grid is in fault/blackout, thanks to
the presence of distributed generation, this is of enormous
benefit to consumers.
But as one stakeholder put it when referring to the
benefits of renewable energy, “Nobody focuses on the reli-
ability part.” In this regard, a study of the value of distrib-
uted generation would be valuable, which might compare
distribution voltage profiles with and without distributed
generation. This may be particularly relevant as solar PV
costs continue to decline and deployment increases.
As solar PV has scaled up dramatically in the German
electricity sector, its ability to produce certain local system
benefits has been required. This is partly because of the
fact that almost all of the installed PV has appeared at the
low- and medium-voltage grid level. As in India, typically
the lower-voltage grid network is not actively managed,
unlike the high-voltage network. But since 2010, PV power
plants in Germany connected to the medium-voltage grid
(10 kV to 110 kV) have had to comply with certain stan-
dards. These include voltage support and active power
control, and from 2011, fault ride-through capability also.
8.7. Summary
Overall, the physics of integrating VRE is less well un-
derstood in some quarters than financial or market aspects.
Stakeholders often pointed out that the design of finan-
cial support mechanisms should account for the resulting
impact on system operation. This may be positive as well
as negative, as experience with distributed solar PV in some
areas has shown.
Stakeholders agree that variable renewable power plants
such as wind and solar PV do not introduce into power
system operation any characteristics that are intrinsically
new. This is borne out by international experiences that
highlight the fact that, although changes will be required
with large shares of such power plants, the existing
resources of power systems are to a large extent up to the
task.
It is also recognised, however, that the Indian system
operators do not yet have at their disposal the significant
human, technical, and financial resources that are present
in most other large countries with major renewable am-
bition. Much discussion revolved around the concept of
REMCs mooted recently by the MoP. International experi-
ences suggest that such an approach will have great value
if it is properly resourced, and closely integrated in power
system operation.
In addition to planning the dispersal of power plants,
to reduce the aggregate variability and uncertainty of their
output, a number of tools exist in the operational time-
frame and could be implemented affordably.
First of all, although some stakeholders showed some
reluctance in this regard, it is essential that state LDCs have
visibility of the output of renewable power plants. This
should be supplied in real time at the unit level. With more
complete knowledge of real-time performance, state LDCs
can develop their own experience of these technologies.
Forecasting of output is essential for the planning of sys-
tem operation. Its value in terms of quantifying and appor-
tioning balancing costs should not be confused with the latter.
Stakeholders felt strongly that although forecasting should
have high granularity, forecasts should be aggregated tat the
state level. Transmission congestion aside, this should make
possible a more realistic view of the balancing challenge.
Load shedding at present represents the sum total of the
tools in use by the system operator for balancing, although
this is currently controlled by the Discoms. It is not yet
known what reserves could be made available to state
LDCs, nor the level of reserves required to meet targeted
deployment of renewables.
Many stakeholders expressed the value of collaboration
among state LDCs, in effect to share the balancing of overall
fluctuations in the supply–demand balance. International
experiences suggest that this can have considerable value,
which can be monetised, and would increase the flexibility
value of coal-fired power plants generally considered to
be inflexible. However, such collaboration would require
strong central leadership to overcome political and other
barriers. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 95
9. Policy Recommendations
The RE Roadmap Initiative’s broad stakeholder process
held under the Chatham House Rule allowed for frank
and thoughtful conversations about the opportunities and
barriers to RE as seen by diverse policymakers and stake-
holders in India’s power sector. The results were enriched
by consideration of international experience (successes
and setbacks), and by feedback from international experts.
Although there was not complete consensus, there was sig-
nificant agreement on the challenges and obstacles facing a
rapid scale-up of RE in India and the principles that would
be the foundation for any solutions. On this foundation,
this paper suggests a framework for an integrated policy
strategy for rapid RE implementation that complements
both the existing and planned conventional power projects.
The intent of this chapter is to outline a small number
of specific near-term steps that the Government of India,
state governments, and stakeholders could take to begin
the power sector retooling process that will accelerate the
country’s deployment of RE. These recommendations were
finalized during the fall of 2014 after circulation and solici-
tation of comments from many of the original stakeholders
in the Roadmap Initiative process.
9.1 What is Holding RE Back?
Stakeholders involved in the roadmap process were very
clear in identifying the key problems constraining the rapid
development of RE in India. Chief among these roadblocks
is the absence of a comprehensive and coherent national
framework for RE in either legislation or policy. The ab-
sence of a long-term vision as well as policy-certainty is
holding back much-needed investment in infrastructure
and RE generation. In addition, policy that does exist is
limited by weak enforcement or low ambition (e.g. some
RPOs), poor design (GBIs, AD, FiTs) or uncertainty (e.g.
capital subsidies, other incentives).
Furthermore, there are simply not enough willing and
credit-worthy buyers. Stakeholders said that discoms, the
primary purchasers of RE, perceive that the cost of RE
is more than they are willing to pay, and developers and
financial institutions perceive high levels of credit risk with
discoms in general. While the latter is clearly a broader
power sector issue, it has a strong negative effect on the
development of RE, as most of the dedicated RE developers
do not have significant investment resources.
Developers felt that the overall RE project development
environment is unnecessarily and prohibitively difficult.
Key among the issues raised by stakeholders is the lack
of coordination among key institutions — grid operators,
discoms, state revenue departments, and environmental
permitting agencies — that leads to time and cost overruns
in project development. Unnecessarily high transaction
costs resulting from the lack of coordination are especially
prevalent in the areas of land acquisition, transmission
interconnections, and environmental clearances.
Finally, most stakeholders agreed that there is a dire need
to expand grid infrastructure and upgrade state, regional,
and national grid technology and operations procedures to
integrate intermittent RE into the grid. And in conjunction
with the technology and operations upgrades, there was a
consensus that regulators and policymakers need to devel-
op and implement mechanisms to procure and reasonably
compensate ancillary and balancing resources.
9.2 Core Principles for Overcoming
Barriers to RE
There will, of course, be many specific alternative ap-
proaches and strategies to achieving a successful RE policy.
But the five core principles discussed below must be at the
heart of any of those new efforts. These principles have
been synthesized from the best thinking of Indian stake-
holders and international experts. They, and the logic for
their inclusion, are presented below:
• Treat RE as a resource of national and strategic
importance
• Many of the most important macroeconomic and
environmental benefits of a large-scale transition Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 96
to RE accrue to the nation as a whole. As a result,
a significant central role in the support and
coordination of RE is required. Without a strong
central role, many of the benefits will simply not be
recognized, nor realized, resulting in lack of action
by states.
• Like coal, RE occurs in some places and not
in others. A large-scale transition to RE needs
a national marketplace with a national grid
(analogous to a national railway system for coal
transportation) so that electricity generated in one
region can be consumed in other regions when and
where it is needed.
• Mandate RE as a significant component of the
power sector
• Decades of professional experience, along with
national and state financial, legal and technical
support have created the current power system
and its operating ecosystem (e.g., engineers,
consultants, regulators and bureaucrats). To
overcome institutional inertia, and to capture
the benefits of a rapid transition to RE, it will be
necessary, at least for the first few years, to give
RE a legal and policy preference by making RE a
mandatory component of the power sector.
• Take an integrated approach to power sector
planning, including generation, transmission, and
distribution
• As fuel prices become increasingly volatile and
renewable options become more and more cost-
competitive, the danger of building-out the wrong
system and having significant “stranded future
investment” becomes increasingly higher. At a
minimum, national authorities should provide their
perspectives on the relative financial, operational,
social and environmental merits of different
generation, transmission and distribution options
(both on supply-side and demand-side) on a
long-term risk-adjusted basis to all power sector
stakeholders on an annual or biannual basis.
• Make buyers indifferent between conventional and
RE resources until grid parity is achieved
• Given the federal structure of India’s power system,
state and local buyers can choose to buy, or not to
buy, whatever power they want, independent of the
preferences of the national government. In order to
rapidly scale RE as a national resource, buyers, at
least until grid parity is achieved, need to be made
indifferent between the cost of renewables and the
cost of traditional (fossil-based) alternatives.
• All efforts should be made to reduce the upstream
costs of RE development and deployment, so that
the incremental cost facing buyers is as low as
possible.
• Give small-scale/distributed RE, close to end-users,
priority equal to large-scale/centralized RE
• Given the experience and current expertise of most
existing power sector participants, the benefits of
small-scale and distributed RE may not be apparent
to them. To keep implicit and explicit institutional
and legal impediments from obstructing the rapid
rollout of small-scale distributed renewables, new
policy and law needs to give equal treatment to
small-scale distributed renewables from legal,
policy, engineering, financial and governance
perspectives.
9.3 Policy Recommendations
The principles described above are the foundation for
the recommendations that follow. India needs an integrated
policy strategy for rapid RE implementation that comple-
ments both existing as well as planned power projects. The
four key recommendations presented here target:
• legislative/policy framework
• implementation support mechanisms
• grid integration of RE
• off-grid RE
9.3.1 National RE Law and/or Policy
A comprehensive, transparent, long-term, and definitive
legislative/policy framework for RE should be implemented
by amending existing laws/policies (e.g., address electricity-
related aspects from the Electricity Act) and/or creating
a new laws/policies (e.g., dedicated to renewable energy
as whole). The laws/policies need to establish a clear and
overarching independent rationale for RE. They also need
to stress the importance of RE relative to fossil fuel-based
generation. In addition, similar to fossil fuel resources (coal,
oil, natural gas, etc.), RE could be considered a “resource
of national importance” as it addresses several fundamental
national objectives such as energy security, reduction of
trade deficit, enhanced land/water availability for non-ener-
gy purposes (e.g. agriculture), cutting-edge industrial and
RD&D (research, development and deployment) growth,
increased employment, and others. Some essential features Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 97
of a potential RE policy/legislative framework are presented
below:
Targets
The law/policy should establish national RE targets that
would incorporate an appropriate but measurable metric
(e.g. generation, capacity, share of consumption, etc.) to
monitor progress in achieving the targets. All states would
be equally responsible to meet a common national uniform
target. The law/policy should include appropriate “sunset”
provisions that would allow regular opportunities (say,
every five years) to update the law/policy in light of the
evolving set of issues pertaining to RE.
The rationale for setting the targets should account for
the various benefits and costs described previously — e.g.,
reducing the trade/fiscal deficit, environmental protection,
energy security, reducing water requirements, etc.
Financial Support Required for Achieving Targets
The law/policy should clearly identify the source,
level, and distribution mechanism for financial support
for reducing the incremental cost of RE (includes both
generation and integration costs) to the ultimate buyers
as compared with the already subsidized fossil fuel-based
generation. The incremental cost-assessment should also
include various components, including: the comparison of
new fossil fuel-based generation with RE, cost of energy,
capacity value of RE (e.g., a resource is considered to have
higher “value” if its availability coincides with high demand
periods and locations), associated risks (e.g., fuel cost and
availability for fossil fuel-based generation), externalities
(e.g., land/water availability relative to other non-energy
purposes), and others.
Integrated Energy Resources Planning
Comprehensive and analytically sophisticated planning
exercises should be undertaken routinely in order to assess
the benefits and costs of various aspects of the electricity
sector, including supply-side resources (e.g., coal, hydro,
gas, nuclear, RE), the transmission and distribution net-
works and their operation, and demand-side resources
(e.g., energy efficiency, demand response, etc.). All possible
benefits and costs should be considered irrespective of their
direct relationship to the electricity sector, ease of quan-
tification and monetization, etc. These planning exercises
should explicitly and systematically account for various risk
factors such as fuel availability, fuel costs, and others.
Programmatic Approach
The new requirements for the entire power system
consist of a portfolio of two complementary policy
approaches:
1

• A restructured and enforceable RPO that incorporates
a mandatory national uniform obligation on all bulk
buyers (i.e., discoms and open access consumers).
The RPO mechanism can be structured to allow all
possible generation project developers — pure-RE
developers, discoms, consumers, etc. — to participate
in the growth of RE capacity. As the cost of RE
continues to fall, the RPO mechanism allows for an
increasing share of RE in future consumption.
• A mandatory mechanism combining net metering
(NEM) with a feed-in tariff (FiT) for behind-the-
meter RE generation (e.g. rooftop solar photovoltaic).
This requirement would apply to all distribution
service providers. Electricity generated under the
NEM/FiT mechanism would count toward the RPO.
The NEM/FiT mechanism encourages the addition
of RE generation close to the point of use thereby
minimizing the costs of transmission and distribution
and associated losses.
9.3.2 Support for Compliance
With strong policy/legislation in place, the focus on
implementation support will be even more desirable. The
government – both at the central and state level – will
need to support compliance with mandatory requirements
regarding RE on the power system through the following
functions. For each function we have suggested two options
– either through existing institutions or by creating new
institutions. Preferred approaches are described below;
alternatives are in footnotes:
1 An additional program that could be considered is a
mandatory Renewable Generation Obligation (RGO) for all
new fossil fuel-based power projects. The RGO mechanism
would explicitly link a portion of RE capacity addition to
growth in fossil-based capacity addition. As a result, all
electricity buyers will buy a percentage of RE generation
as all new electricity generation will, by default, include
RE. This mechanism leverages the strong financial health
of developers of fossil fuel-based generation. Additional
synergies such as generation efficiency, transmission
interconnections, transmission utilization, and grid
integration could further reduce the overall cost of new RE to
all buyers. Electricity consumed under the RGO would also
count toward the RPO. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 98
“One-Stop Shop” for Standardized Contracting:
Currently, buyers (e.g. discoms) and RE sellers contract
bilaterally under the oversight of the relevant regulatory
commissions. In an information-poor environment,
buyers (and regulatory commissions) either follow a long
and costly contract negotiation process or, using their
monopsony
2
power, force a biased contract on the sellers.
Streamlining the contracting process (e.g., standardization
of contracts), and making available relevant information
(e.g., that could lead to a more transparent price discovery
process) in a centralized manner could significantly reduce
contracting-related transaction costs and project risks. This
should be achieved by establishing a new CERC-regulated
intermediary institution that centrally procures RE from
developers at an auction-price and sells to bulk buyers.
3

Financial Support and Disbursal Mechanism:
Currently, RE developers receive subsidies under multiple
mechanisms.
4
The potential redundant overlaps among
these subsidies, constant revisions, and the wide range
of variations — especially in financial support from the
states — have created an uncertain investment and project
development environment. A uniform, simple financial
support and disbursal mechanism targeted to buyers that
is transparently designed and provides certainty over
a reasonable period of time could significantly help in
expediting RE growth. The financial support could be
disbursed through the new Intermediary Institution –
described previously – that ensures that bulk buyers are
indifferent between new RE and new fossil fuel-based
generation.
5

Streamline Project Development: One of the major
constraints on rapid RE development is the lengthy
and costly project development process that includes
investment-grade RE resource assessments, access
to land (either acquisition or leasing), supporting
infrastructure development (e.g. roads, water, transmission
interconnections, etc.), etc. Some of these aspects are under
state jurisdiction while others are under central jurisdiction;
coordination among the two is necessary to minimize
project development-related transaction costs. A newly
formed states-center committee should lead the facilitation
process to reduce soft costs in project development
(e.g., siting, permitting, supporting infrastructures) with
technical and logistical support from the Intermediary
Institution described above.
6
This is largely aimed at de-
risking the sector and fast-tracking RE deployment.
Low-Cost Financing: RE technologies, unlike fossil-
based energy technologies, have high capital costs but
very low operating costs spread over 25 to 30 years. Thus,
the cost of finance (currently ranging from 12–14% in
India) forms a significant component of the power tariff
from these sources. Buying down the rate of interest
for RE projects would reduce tariffs and hence scale-up
demand for RE. The cost of finance in any country is
typically driven by multiple factors including inflation
rates, economic conditions, state of financial markets, etc.
and hence, it is neither desirable nor possible to make
interventions in financial markets. The interventions thus
have to be sector (RE) specific. Further, it is desirable to
reduce cost of capital at multiple stages viz:
Stage 1: Reducing the risk perception of the sector by
de-risking (as mentioned in several other interventions
above) and hence managing/ reducing investors’ return
expectations (both debt and equity).
Stage 2: Increasing the quantum of money available and
reducing the cost of such money
• Allowing special green bonds — such as tax-free,
and/or capital gains tax-exempt bonds — in line with
infrastructure bonds
• Bringing RE under priority sector lending
• Allowing pension funds, insurance companies, and
sovereign funds with long-term horizons to invest in
RE projects through securitization markets
• Lowering the sovereign guarantee fee for non-banking
financial companies (NBFCs)/public-sector entities
involved in financing RE projects
2 A market form in which only one buyer interfaces with many
sellers.
3 Alternatively, existing entities such as an expanded
Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) and/or the
Power Exchanges could be assigned the responsibility of
establishing a centralized platform.
4 See, for example accelerated depreciation (AD) from Ministry
of Finance, generation based incentives (GBI) and Viability
Gap Funding (VGF) through MNRE, Feed in tariffs (FiT)
from discoms, etc.
5 Alternatively, a portfolio of incentives could be directed to
different parts of the value chain and disbursed through
various existing institutions.
6 Alternatively, MNRE could initiate an RE-zone based project
development process similar to that undertaken by the
Power Finance Corporation (PFC) for developing UMPPs,
and is also envisaged for solar UMPPs. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 99
• Allowing tradable tax credits to be issued by
developers who do not have corresponding set-offs
against such tax benefits, so they can sell them to
others who are eligible to do so
• Allowing longer-tenure loans from the Infrastructure
debt fund to RE projects that meet well-defined
criteria, even if they are not public-private
partnerships (PPPs), or creating mechanisms that
allow structuring of projects as PPPs
Stage 3: An existing central government entity such as
IREDA or PFC could pool various sources of funds including
commercial (banks, FIs, MDBs’ lines of credits etc.) and non-
commercial (National Clean Energy Fund {NCEF}, grants,
subsidies, corporate social responsibility money, etc.) capital
from domestic as well as international sources. This pool of
funds could be administered and managed to lend debt (and
even part equity, if possible) at lower interest rates.
9.3.3 RE Grid Integration and More Efficient
Grid Operation
Finally, in addition to strong policy/legislation and
supportive deployment environment, grid interconnection
and integration of RE is equally critical. Technically, RE is
typically described as an intermittent source of electricity.
Intermittency consists of two distinct aspects:
• “Predictability/Uncertainty” refers to the lack of
accurate knowledge about future RE generation
(e.g., a sudden drop in wind power), which is not
very different from fossil fuel- based generation/
transmission systems (e.g., an unforeseen failure of a
fossil-based generator or a transmission line).
• “Variability” is the known natural variation in RE
generation (e.g., wind peaking during monsoon and
reduced availability in other seasons), just as we have
on the demand side currently (e.g., low demand at
midnight and high demand during late afternoon).
Internationally — where RE accounts for increasingly
large shares of the power systems — various changes
to grid design, technology, and its operation have been
implemented that allow successful grid integration, i.e.
minimizing and/or managing the variability and uncertainty
aspects of RE. Many of these strategies are inherently useful
for improving the overall efficiency of grid operations and
reducing overall costs to consumers whether RE accounts
for a large (e.g. >25%) share of the generation mix or not.
Some of these changes are one-time changes while others
would evolve over time as load shapes and the resource
mix continue to change. These strategies are summarized
Table 7
RE Grid Integration and Efficient
Grid Operation Strategies
One-time
Upgrade grid
technology Minimize Manage
Upgrade grid
operation protocols Minimize Manage
Expand
“Balancing Areas” Minimize Minimize and manage
Upgrade grid
planning practices Minimize Minimize
Ongoing
Balancing resources –
estimation, procurement,
dispatch Manage Manage
Strategy Impact on
Uncertainty
Impact on
Variability
in Table 7 above. The rest of this section describes these
strategies in more detail.
These strategies can be classified into following sub-
categories, in roughly ascending order in terms of cost
per kWh.
• Upgrade grid technology: System operators at all
levels (i.e. state, regional, and national) should have
visibility of the grid status in neighboring balancing
areas and also the ability to easily coordinate with
them. Most of the transmission companies (i.e. central
and state transmission utilities) and Load Dispatch
Centers (LDCs) (i.e. POSOCO and State LDCs) have
initiated grid technology upgrades in recent times
–for example, the introduction of synchrophasors,
smart-grid pilots, etc. These initiatives need to
be significantly ramped up to deploy sensors for
generating real-time high geographic resolution data
on grid conditions. These data generation sensors
need to be coupled with sophisticated analytical
engines that provide the necessary information
for grid operations. Centralized RE forecasting
mechanisms need to be tightly integrated with system
operations. Lastly, advanced decision-making and
control systems need to be implemented that enable
system operators to respond significantly faster to
changed grid conditions.
• Upgrade grid operation protocols: Various aspects of
system operations need to be updated. These include
but are not limited to:
• Grid Codes: System operators around the world — Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 100
especially those encountering a high share of RE
on their grid – are continually updating their grid
codes to ensure that RE additions do not affect
the grid adversely. Grid codes need to explicitly
acknowledge attributes unique to RE generators
and, consequently, require appropriate capabilities
(e.g., fault-ride through, etc.).
• Scheduling and Dispatch: Through both practice
and theory, it has become evident that grids
that are operated in a manner where scheduling
and dispatch are implemented over short time
durations (e.g., as low as five minutes) have
significantly lower overall costs to consumers as the
need for ancillary resources decreases. Currently,
in India, scheduling occurs on a day-ahead basis
while dispatch occurs on a 15-minute basis. System
operations technologies and protocols need to be
updated to enable five-minute scheduling and
dispatch of all resources connected to the grid
and automated incorporation of RE forecasts. It
should be noted that accuracy of RE forecasts is
significantly higher the closer they get to dispatch.
Consequently, the ancillary service requirements
will also be lower.
• Expand Balancing Areas: It has been seen globally
that larger balancing areas (or the ability to coordinate
among balancing areas) have significantly lowered
the overall cost to consumers as ancillary services
requirements are reduced substantially. Over several
decades, neighboring balancing areas have evolved
various forms of coordination ranging all the way
up to merging several balancing areas into one and
doing centralized dispatch, such as the creation of
Independent System Operators (ISOs) in the US.
Currently, balancing areas in India — specifically,
states — neither have the visibility of their neighbors’
grid condition nor the ability to coordinate with them.
A single national-level load dispatch center that is
non-profit, independent, and regulated by CERC is
sufficient for managing the entire national grid.
7

• Promote flexible demand and supply resources:
Power systems, especially those with a high share
of RE, require access to sufficient flexible resources
(e.g. demand response, gas turbines, hydroelectricity,
etc.) to ensure continued stability of the grid at each
moment. Currently, there are no mechanisms in India
to ascertain the amount of balancing resources needed
and how these can be procured and dispatched. Grid
simulations that are used to identify resource pools
(both built and unbuilt), specifically for providing
various types of flexible resources including ancillary
services, should be conducted routinely. Procurement
mechanisms need to be implemented to ensure
these resources are connected for use in assuring
grid stability. Finally, mechanisms for fair price
discovery and compensation of flexible resource (e.g.,
ancillary services) providers need to be established.
The relevant LDC should be made responsible for
procuring ancillary services to ensure grid stability.
The procurement process should be similar to the
usual competitive bidding process used by discoms
for procuring energy. The compensation could be
cost-plus as approved by the relevant regulatory
commission and paid by all the buyers to the LDC.
8
7 Alternatively, system operations technologies and protocols
need to be updated to allow all system operators to see the
grid conditions in other balancing areas and a mechanism
established (e.g. energy-imbalance market that is currently
being implemented in the western US) for them to routinely
coordinate with each other. In order to identify areas for cost-
effective cooperation among balancing areas, the quantity of
ancillary services available and needed (in terms of duration,
frequency, location, etc.), and estimation of the costs and
benefits of ancillary services, a “shadow market” approach
could be undertaken. In the first phase, the “shadow market”
could be simulated for the past day where the actual operation
can be compared with a potentially optimal operation in
terms of metrics such as overall costs/ frequency/duration/
extent of load-shedding, etc. In the second phase, the “shadow
market’ could be simulated in real-time in parallel to the
actual operations in order to identify potential changes to the
operations. As grid operators develop increasing confidence
in the value of these simulations, in phase 3, the “shadow
market” could be transformed into a “real” market that
replaces the current way of operating the grid to ensure the
benefits of optimal operations flow to consumers.
8 Alternatively, a market-based approach would consist of the
creation of a wholesale ancillary services market similar to
the wholesale energy market. At the market-clearing price,
LDCs would acquire the required balancing resources for
which all buyers served by the LDC would be charged.
The relevant regulatory commission would allow for these
payments to the LDCs. This approach would allow more
flexibility among the balancing areas, but must be preceded
by more understanding of system stability needs. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 101
9.3.4 Energy Access and Off-Grid RE
One-third of India’s population does not have access to
electricity. Most of the discoms are struggling to provide
minimum lifeline supply of 1 unit/household/day to the
rural areas.
The scope of this Roadmap Initiative did not include an
extensive consideration of the challenges of energy access
or off-grid RE generation dynamics. However stakehold-
ers concerned with these issues indicated RE sources could
rapidly bridge India’s energy access challenge in a cost-
effective manner. RE could also accelerate achievement of
India’s universal service obligation, a mandate outlined in
the Electricity Act 2003.
Some policy approaches to these ends were put forward
during this Roadmap Initiative, although there was general
agreement that these issues require their own in-depth
stakeholder process.
For the record, these are the basic energy access and
off-grid RE concepts that were suggested. In addition to
the grid extension programs of the GoI, which are time and
resource intensive, state utilities (and state governments)
should be actively engaged and held responsible for:
• Immediately providing stand-alone off-grid systems in
remote rural areas for home lighting and running other
basic appliances. Over time, these systems could play
the same role as that of rooftop systems in urban areas
• In parallel, developing district and block-level plans
for providing electricity through deployment of
micro-grids or mini-grids using RE resources
The creation and sustenance of the proposed systems
would require new business models and private sector
participation. Enabling policy and regulatory frameworks
should be created at the central as well as state levels. The
business models, policies and regulations thus formulated
must allow for integration of these stand-alone and/or mini-
grid systems with the larger grid system once the distribu-
tion grid reaches the inaccessible areas.
9.4 Summary and Conclusion
At the 21st Century Power Partnership Steering
Committee Meeting on February 7th 2014, the Member
(Energy) of India’s erstwhile Planning Commission
identified the Roadmap Initiative’s goal:
“We should not get into the mindset that RE is the
intruder and conventional energy is the main player. Why
not consider RE to be main occupants of the “house” and
then work out the rest of the system around RE, essentially,
because RE is the future?”
This was and remains the key and critical question. For
a hundred years, conventional fossil-fueled power plants
were at the core of power systems around the world. Those
systems had particular engineering and technical character-
istics, and operating and governance institutions have been
created, designed and operated for decades to support a
system with those characteristics.
But renewables are different. For India to capture the
benefits of renewables as “the main occupant of the house”
will require the rethinking and reengineering of institu-
tions, the redefinition of policies, the re-tuning of power
grids and systems, and the replacement of old habits with
new ones.
A rethink is unavoidable: renewables are different from
the power technologies of the past. The enormous benefits
they bring – zero fuel, electricity prices free from volatil-
ity and external influence, reduced imports, dramatically
reduced pollution and water use – will not be had without
significant effort.
Most renewables have zero fuel costs but they are more
capital-intensive than conventional fossil power plants.
India’s renewable resources are abundant, but the output
of wind and solar photovoltaic is variable, and in the case
of wind in particular, subject to uncertainty. To capture the
benefits, India would need to raise the necessary capital,
and to get comfortable with managing the variability and
uncertainty of renewable energy generation.
The policy framework outlined above would facilitate
that rethinking; it was based on extensive inputs from
stakeholders and international experience and specifically
designed to overcome the barriers to success and to meet
the renewables challenge.
To that end, then, both the purpose and the best use of
this RE Roadmap Initiative report will be to assist policy-
makers and stakeholders to grasp what is at stake, and what
needs to be done to make a successful choice in favor of
renewables at scale. Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 102
Annex 1
RE Roadmap Initiative Stakeholders
In alphabetical order within each category
Government of India Institutions
(Centre)
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd.
Central Electricity Authority
Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency
Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region
Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change,
Government of India
Ministry of Finance, Government of India
Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, Government of India
Ministry of Power, Government of India
National Load Dispatch Centre
National Thermal Power Corporation Ltd.
Petroleum Conservation Research Association
Power Grid Coropration of India Ltd.
Power System Operation Corporation Ltd.
Thirteenth Finance Commission, India
Regulatory Commissions, India
(Centre, followed by States)
Central Electricity Regulatory Commission
Bihar State Electricity Regulatory Commission
Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission
Himachal Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission
Karnataka Electricity Regulatory Commission
Madhya Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission
Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission
Punjab Electricity Regulatory Commission
Uttar Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission
West Bengal Electricity Regulatory Commission
Government Institutions, India
(State and Other)
Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Ltd.
Bihar Renewable Energy Development Agency
Bihar State Power Transmission Corporation Ltd
Directorate of Energy, Himachal Pradesh
Government of Bihar
Government of Haryana
Government of Madhya Pradesh
Government of Maharashtra
Government of Punjab
Government of Rajasthan
Government of Tamil Nadu
Gujarat Eneregy Development Agency
Gujarat State Transmission Corporation
Gujarat Urja Vikas Nigam Ltd.
Haryana Renewable Energy Development Agency
Haryana Power Purchase Centre
Himachal Pradesh Energy Development Agency (“HIMURJA”)
Himachal Pradesh Power Corporation Ltd
Himachal Pradesh State Electricity Board Ltd
Karnataka State Load Dispatch Centre
Maharashtra State Power Generation Company Ltd
Punjab State Transmission Corporation Ltd
Punjab Energy Development Agency
Satluj Hydro Power Project
SJVN Limited
Tamil Nadu Energy Development Agency
Uttar Pradesh New and Renewable Energy Development Agency
West Bengal Renewable Energy Development Agency
Civil Society, India
Ashden India Renewable Energy Collective
Center for Policy Research
Center for Science and Environment
Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy
Council on Energy, Environment and Water
Himachal Pradesh Voluntary Health Association
Natural Resources Defense Council
National Institute for Rural Technology Development
Observer Research Foundation
Prayas Energy Group
The Energy and Resources Institute
Vasudha Foundation
World Institute of Sustainable Energy
World Wildlife Fund India Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 103
Private Sector
ABB LTD
ACIRA Solar
AF-Mercados Energy Markets India Pvt Limited
Agni Power and Electronics Pvt Ltd
Aisect University
Allianz Group LLC
Amarnath Kaushal Lucky Power PCs Ltd
Asian Paints Limited
Athena Infonomics India Private Limited
Axis Bank
Beckons Industries
Birla Corporation Ltd
BLA Shalvi Hydro Power Ltd
Bharat Renewable Energy Ltd
Bridge To India Energy
Cheema Boilers Limited
Chemtrols Ltd
CII-Green Business Centre
Coatec India
Continental Solar
Country Strategy Business Consulting
CRISIL
DAS India
Development Consultants Pvt Ltd
Emergent Ventures India
Enercon Ltd
Ernst & Young
Essel Group
Ethical Energy Petrochem Strategies Pvt Ltd
First Solar
Forum of Hydro Power Producers
GP Tronics
Green Infra Ltd
GreenTech Knowledge Solutions Pvt Ltd
Hansen Drives Ltd. (Sterling and Wilson)
Harsha Abakus Solar Pvt Ltd
HDFC Bank
HERO Future Energies
Himalaya Power Producers Association
Hinduja Group
Hindustan Unilever Ltd
ICICI Project Finance Group
Idam Infrastructure Advisory Pvt Ltd
IDBI Bank
IL&FS Energy Development Company
Inco Mechal Pvt Ltd
India Power Company Ltd
Indian Bank
Indian Banks’ Association
Indian Energy Exchange
Indian Renewable Energy Federation
Indian Wind Power Association
Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers’ Association
Indo Solar
Inspira Enterprise India Pvt Ltd
International Copper Promotion Council (India)
Indian School of Business Mohali
Jackson Engineering
KPMG Advisory Services Pvt Ltd
Karnataka Bank
Khanna Paper Mills Limited
Krishna Hydro
Ladderup Corporate Advisory Private Limited
Leitner Shriram Manufacuring Limited
Linkage Technologies Inc.
Lubitech Enterprises
M N Dastur & Co
M Power Green
Meghraj Capital Advisors Pvt Ltd
MITCON Consultancy & Engineering Services Ltd 
Moser Baer India Ltd
Omne Agate Systems Pvt Ltd
P B Electrotech
Paridhi Industries Unit - 2
Power Exchange India Limited
Rajasthan Electronics and Instruments Ltd
Rajendra EXIM
Regional Committee on Energy & Power
ReNew Power Ventures Pvt Ltd
Reliance Industries Limited
RRB Energy
Sahaj Solar Pvt. Ltd.
Sampurn Agri Ventures Limited
Satpura Power Pvt Ltd
SBI Caps
Shivalik Waste Management Ltd
Solace Renewable Energy Pvt Ltd
Solar Energy Society of India
Solar Pvt Ltd
Spark Electricals
SPML Infra Limited
Stup Consultants
Sugar Co-Gen Association
Sun Edison Energy India Pvt Limited
Super Smelters Ltd
Supreme & Co Pvt Ltd
Suzlon Group
Tata Cleantech Capital Limited
Tata Motor
Tata Power Solar Systems Ltd
Techno Electric & Engineering Co. Ltd
Traveni Engineering
Trident India Limited
Vardhman Textiles Limited
Vatsalyam Enterprises
Vijaya Bank
Vijayant Consultants
WARTSILA India Ltd
Wrigley India
Yash EcoEnergy Ltd
Yash Papers Ltd Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 104
Bi-lateral and Multi-lateral Institutions
Asian Development Bank
Consulate General of Brazil in Mumbai
Department for International Development, British High
Commission
Economic & Commercial Office of Spain
GIZ (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit)
Japan International Cooperation Agency
Royal Norwegian Embassy
South African Consulate General
United States Agency for International Development
World Bank Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 105
Annex 2
International Review
Provided through the auspices of the 21st Century Power Partnership,
an undertaking of the Clean Energy Ministerial
Doug Arent
Acting Center Director
Strategic Energy Analysis Center
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
USA
Kubeshnie Bhugwandin (Pr.Nat.Sc)
Research Strategy Manager (Acting)
Portfolios Renewables, Clean Coal &
Fuel Resources; Applied Chemistry &
Microbiology, Plant Material & Integrity
Research, Testing & Development
Sustainability Division
ESKOM
South Africa
Dr. Minesh Bipath
Head
Centre for Energy Systems Analysis and
Research (CESAR)
South African National Energy
Development Institute (SANEDI)
South Africa
Sarah Booth
Clean Energy Policy Analyst
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
USA
Ricardo Bracho
Team Leader
Project Finance
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
USA
Dr. Jaquelin Cochran
Senior Energy Analyst
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
USA
Dagmar Graczyk
Manager for South Asia
International Energy Agency
multilateral
Edward James-Smith
Climate and energy economics
Ministry of Climate, Energy and Building
Danish Energy Agency
Denmark
Mackay Miller
Senior Research Analyst
Strategic Energy Analysis Center
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
USA
Jose-Miguel Molina Munguia
Director, Renewable Energy
Ministry of Energy
Mexico
Simon Müller
Energy Analyst,
System Integration of Renewables
Renewable Energy Division
International Energy Agency
multilateral
Brian Parsons
International RE grid integration consultant
NREL, retired
USA
Dr. Amol Phadke
Scientist and Deputy Leader
International Energy Studies Group
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
USA
Kevin Porter
Senior Analyst/Principal
Exeter Associates, Inc.
USA
Dr. Jayant Sathaye
Senior Scientist & Strategic Advisor
Founder, International Energy Studies
Group
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
USA
Dr. Gireesh Shrimali
Fellow
Climate Policy Initiative
USA
Jose Maria Valenzuela Robles Linares
Deputy Director General for Bioenergy
General Direction for Sustainability
Secretariat of Energy
Mexico
Executive Director
Mexican Wind Energy Association
Mexico
President
National Solar Energy Association
Mexico Report on India?s Renewable Electricity Roadmap 2030: Towards Accelerated Renewable Electricity Deployment 106
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The executive summary and the full report are available online at the websites of CII, Shakti and RAP.
These will also be made available at NITI Aayog’s website shortly. About the Institutions
National Institution for Transforming India
(NITI) Aayog
http://pmindia.gov.in/en/tag/niti-aayog/
The institution is the successor to the Planning Commission, and will
serve as ‘Think Tank’ of the Government – a directional and policy dynamo.
NITI Aayog will provide Governments at the central and state levels with
relevant strategic and technical advice across the spectrum of key elements
of policy. The latter includes matters of national and international import on
the economic front, dissemination of best practices from within the country
as well as from other nations, the infusion of new policy ideas and
specific issue-based support.
Confederation of Indian Industry
http://www.cii.in
The Confederation of Indian Industry works to create and sustain an
environment conducive to the growth of industry in India, partnering industry
and government alike through advisory and consultative processes.
Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation
http://shaktifoundation.in
Shakti Sustainable Energy Foundation works to strengthen the energy security
of India by aiding the design and implementation of policies that encourage
energy efficiency as well as renewable energy.
Regulatory Assistance Project
http://www.raponline.org
Regulatory Assistance Project is a global, non-profit team of experts focused
on the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of the power and
natural gas sectors, providing assistance to government officials on a broad
range of energy and environmental issues.