<span>Newsletter - NITISandhan January 2025</span>

Newsletter - NITISandhan January 2025

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Research & Networking
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About Research and Networking
(R&N) Division
Figures at a glance
NITIसंधान
15 January 2025
To further strengthen and streamline the research work being
facilitated and undertaken by NITI Aayog, a separate Research
and Networking (R&N) Division was formed in 2024. The R&N
Division will oversee the development of a robust pipeline
of research studies, evolve a multi-pronged dissemination
strategy and foster a networking mechanism amongst
relevant stakeholders from the policy research ecosystem.
• ANI, December 19, 2024: India needs 25 million beds for workers in
manufacturing sector in 10 years: NITI Aayog
• Mint, December 19, 2024: Build workers’ homes closer to factories to
make manufacturing more productive and competitive: Niti Aayog
• Business Standard, January 13, 2025: Private mines, CIL drive record coal
output of 988 mt in 2024: Govt
• Indian Express, December 5, 2024: India had ‘limited success’ in
capturing ‘China Plus One’ opportunity: NITI Aayog
• Deccan Herald, December 4, 2024: Trump’s tariff plan on China may
boost India’s exports: NITI CEO
• The Hindu, December 4, 2024: NITI Aayog expects India to benefit from
Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada
Citations in MediaResearch publications last quarter
SAFE Accommodation:
Worker Housing for
Manufacturing Growth
A Report on Trade
Watch (Quarterly)
Quarterly newsletter by Research and Networking (R&N) Division of NITI Aayog
NITI Aayog was established in 2015 to function as the
premier public policy think tank of the Government
of India, aimed to promote inclusive growth and
cooperative federalism. Envisioned to be a knowledge
and innovation hub, NITI has established itself as a centre
for quality research making significant contribution in
the national discourse on development policy making.
Research remains the foundation of NITI Aayog enabling informed
policymaking and sustainable development. In an ever-evolving global
landscape, it is imperative that we approach challenges with innovative,
evidence-based solutions that are rooted in rigorous research and analysis.
At NITI Aayog, we strive to foster a culture of inquiry and collaboration,
recognising that robust research is essential to identify opportunities, address
systemic challenges, and unlock India’s vast potential. Whether it pertains
to enhancing governance, advancing technology, combating climate
change, or promoting social equity, data-driven insights empower us to craft
strategies that are impactful and inclusive.
It gives me immense pleasure to announce the launch of NITIसंधान, a
quarterly newsletter designed to inform about the transformative research
work happening at NITI Aayog. This newsletter reflects our commitment to
transparency, knowledge sharing, and collaboration. We look forward to
your feedback and contribution to make NITIसंधान a valuable resource for
everyone.
Research is the
cornerstone of
transformative policy-
making. At NITI Aayog,
we promote a culture of
evidence-based analysis
and innovation to address India's complex
socio-economic challenges. Rigorous
research enables us to identify opportunities,
evaluate solutions, and drive sustainable
development. We encourage collaboration
between policymakers, academia, and
industry to create actionable insights that
can improve lives. Let us remain committed to
cultivating data-driven strategies, promoting
interdisciplinary studies, and harnessing
emerging technologies to shape India’s
future. Together, we can turn aspirations into
achievements through the power of informed
decision-making.
From the desk of CEOMessage from
Vice Chairperson
Report on Enhancing
Domestic Coking Coal
Availability to Reduce the
Import of Coking Coal
Analysis of Historical Ambient Air
Quality Data along with Emission from
coal-based Thermal Power Plants for
Developing a Decision Support System
Ms. Anna Roy (Programme Director, Research and
Networking Division, NITI Aayog)
E-mail at pdresearch-niti@gov.in
Scan this QR to
access NITI Aayog
publications 15 January 2025
Voice of our
Researchers
Given the diverse nature of
the services sector in India,
NITI Aayog’s Working Paper -
‘Identifying Potential Service Sub-
Sectors: Insights from GVA, Exports,
and Employment Data,’ presents
an approach to holistically
examine services from various
dimensions, including contribution
to gross value-added (GVA),
employment, and exports.
Co-authors:
Sonia Pant,
Pratibha Sharma,
Aarushi Gupta,
Pooja Agrawal
{Services Division, NITI Aayog}
SONIA PANT
PROGRAM DIRECTOR,
NITI AAYOG
Services have rapidly emerged as the cornerstone of the global economy, and
this trend is especially prominent in developing countries including India. In 2022,
services contributed a massive 67-70% to global GD, totaling about USD 67 trillion. It
also accounted for 50% of the global workforce, with high-income countries seeing
even greater participation. This growth trajectory is expected to continue, with
services likely to reach USD 100 trillion by 2047. In India, the services sector is already
a dominant force, contributing more than 50% to the country’s Gross Value Added
(GVA), worth approximately USD 1.4 trillion in 2022-23. By 2047, services are projected
to make up 56% of India’s GVA, with an estimated value of USD 15-16 trillion. About
32% of India’s workforce is engaged in the services sector. The country's contribution
to global services exports has grown significantly to 4.3% in 2023, from 2% in 2005,
making India the seventh largest services exporter. It is also the largest recipient
of FDI inflows, emphasising the sector’s critical role in India's ongoing economic
transformation.
But as promising as these statistics are, there is a growing debate about whether
the services sector can create jobs at the same scale as manufacturing, particularly
for low-skilled workers. Services are inherently heterogeneous in nature, ranging
from highly skilled professional services to lower-skilled sectors such as personal
services. Accordingly, there are questions as to whether it can absorb surplus labour
from agriculture or provide widespread employment opportunities for lower-skilled
workers. There is a valid concern that services may not be able to deliver both
productivity growth and job creation simultaneously. However, the declining share
of manufacturing in global employment indicates that this sector alone will not
suffice to meet the need for new jobs in developing countries. Moreover, advanced
economies are increasingly implementing new technologies and retaining more
production domestically. Necessitating a strategy which combines both services
and manufacturing as a growth driver.
For India, this means that while services will continue to play a central role in the
country’s economic transformation, the path to job creation requires a more
nuanced approach. Given the diverse nature of the services sector in India, NITI
Aayog’s Working Paper - ‘Identifying Potential Service Sub-Sectors: Insights from
GVA, Exports, and Employment Data,’ presents an approach to holistically examine
services from various dimensions, including contribution to gross value-added
(GVA), employment, and exports. This approach has led to defining services in India
into 15 sub-sectors. Understanding these sub-sectors and their unique dynamics is
essential for crafting targeted policies that can harness the full potential of services.
The identified sub-sectors vary significantly in terms of some excelling in exports,
others in GVA contributions, and some in job creation. No single subsector embodies
all these factors equally, making it essential to analyze the sector through a
disaggregated lens, focusing on the interplay between GVA, employment, and
exports. The figure below provides a detailed breakdown of the performance of key
services sub-sectors in 2022-23, showcasing how these dimensions intersect and
contribute to the broader economic landscape.
A multifaceted strategy is essential to sustain and grow India's services sector. In areas
where India already excels, the focus should be on sustaining leadership through
innovation, research and development (R&D), and workforce upskilling. Reducing
regulatory burdens will be critical to maintaining global competitiveness. For high-
potential sectors, such as Transport, Telecommunications, and Trade & Repair,
emphasis should be on accelerating growth through digital infrastructure, smart
logistics, and 5G technologies. Additionally, fostering public-private partnerships
and improving the ease of doing business will help propel these sectors forward.
However, not all sectors are performing at their full potential. For Health and Travel,
transformative strategies are needed. India can position itself as a global leader
in medical tourism and telemedicine, while also focusing on high-value tourism
to attract international visitors. For Insurance and Audio-Visual Services, prioritizing
digital solutions, content localization, and product customization will be crucial to
tap into global markets.
The road ahead for India’s services sector is paved with challenges and opportunities.
To unlock the full potential of this sector, India must streamline its regulatory
framework, invest in technology, and foster innovation across all sub-sectors. While
services alone may not be able to replicate manufacturing's job-creating capacity,
they will remain central to India’s economic transformation—provided we adopt a
targeted, strategic approach to harness their full potential. Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI
Trade Watch: Quarterly Insights into India’s
Evolving Trade Landscape
Trade Watch Quarterly provides
a snapshot of India’s trade
performance, offering insights
into trade dynamics, identifying
potential growth sectors and key
markets, and assessing the impact
of geopolitical tensions. This
publication supports NITI Aayog’s
mission to enhance India’s global
trade standing.
Vice Chairperson Suman Bery
highlighted its role in data-
driven policy interventions and
sustainable growth, while Dr.
Arvind Virmani (Member, NITI
Aayog) and BVR Subrahmanyam
(CEO, NITI Aayog) emphasized its
importance for evidence-based
policymaking, aligning with NITI
Aayog’s broader vision of Viksit
Bharat (India@2047).
India’s total trade in H1 2024
reached $576 billion reflecting
year-on-year growth of 5.45%.
Exports hit a record high of
$776 billion in 2022-23, rising
slightly to $778
billion in 2023-24. The trade
deficit improved to $ (-)78.1
billion in 2023-24, compared
to $ (-)95.8 billion in 2018-
19, Current account deficit
reduced from 2.0% of GDP in
FY22-23 to 0.7% in FY23-24,
reflecting improved export
competitiveness and deeper
global integration.
Each edition of Trade Watch
will feature a dedicated section
focusing on thematic areas such
as sectoral deep-dives, offering
a critical analysis of its impact in
shaping India’s trade dynamics.
Imports were dominated by mineral
fuels and electrical machinery
(56%), while exports, led by mineral
fuels and pearls, contributed 45%.
Key export markets included North
America (21%) and the EU (18.61%),
while Northeast Asia, GCC, and
ASEAN accounted for 51% of imports.
Merchandise export growth to FTA
partners stood at 12%, outpacing
imports at 10.29%. India’s share in
global services exports rose to 4.6%
in 2023, with IT and business services
at 74%, but its share in travel,
transport, and financial services
remained low, signalling a need for
diversification in underperforming
sectors.
India maintains a Revealed
Comparative Advantage
(RCA > 1) in 43 commodities,
contributing 68.2% of
merchandise exports and
representing 40% of global
imports. In 2023, India holds
an 18.53% export share in 434
niche products, though they
account for just 2.9% of global
imports. In contrast, India’s
share is only 0.26% in 4422
products, making up 68% of
global imports, highlighting
the need to expand into
broader markets.
India’s Trade Performance in
H1 2024
Looking Ahead
Sectoral Trends and Market
Dynamics
India’s Global Trade
Footprint
Source: Department of Commerce, MoC&I, GOI & NITI’s own calculation
15 January 2025
Scan this QR to
access full report International Conference on
India’s Multiple Transitions:
Financing a Big Investment
Push
Macroeconomic
Management of India’s
Multiple Transitions
Liberalising the Capital
Account
A modern financial
architecture for a fast-
growing economy
Fiscal dimensions of a
big investment push
The session explored
strategies to finance India’s
investment needs while
ensuring macroeconomic
stability, emphasizing
the alignment of savings,
fiscal policies, and current
account deficit with
growth and climate goals.
Mobilizing endogenous
savings was identified as
critical. Policy credibility,
both fiscal and monetary,
was deemed essential
for market-driven price
discovery and encouraging
private investment.
Lessons from China’s
capital formation and
decarbonization strategies
were discussed, alongside
balanced policies to
manage inflation, exchange
rates, and economic
liberalization.
The session explored India's
path to capital account
liberalization, drawing
lessons from Western
Europe’s integration
into global finance and
addressing challenges
posed by global economic
shifts, financial innovations
like Central Bank Digital
Currencies, and financing
vulnerabilities. Discussions
highlighted the importance
of forex reserves to smooth
exchange rates, the need
for swap agreements, and
the role of macro-prudential
policies in managing capital
flows while mitigating risks.
Balancing foreign capital
attraction with export
competitiveness and
addressing data gaps in
foreign investment mapping
were emphasized.
The session focused on
developing a modern
financial architecture for
India’s growth, addressing
challenges like bank
reliance, underdeveloped
corporate bond markets,
and low-yield savings.
Key solutions included
promoting financial literacy,
diversifying financial
products, and improving
regulatory frameworks.
The session focused on
fiscal sustainability in
India, emphasizing deficit
reduction, boosting savings,
and minimizing borrowing
through disinvestment and
pension reforms. Solutions
proposed included a carbon
tax with GST, flexible fiscal
targets, and prioritizing
health, education, and
climate investments. The
conference developed
a forward-looking
macroeconomic framework
for the next decade,
assessing risks and rewards
to align investment finance
and guide research and
policymaking on key
macroeconomic issues.
India has an ambitious target of becoming a
high-income nation by 2047 which requires
sustained GDP growth of 7.6% p.a. and an
additional investment of 2-2.5% GDP p.a.
towards achieving sustainable development
goals including climate commitments. In this
context, NITI Aayog in collaboration with the
University of California, Berkeley, and Indira
Gandhi Institute of Development Research
organized an international conference titled,
“India’s Multiple Transitions: Financing a Big
Investment Push” in Mumbai on 16th-17th
December 2024. The four key sessions and
major outcomes are discussed below briefly.
15 January 2025