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VOL. 10
CRITICAL MINERAL ASSESSMENT:
DEMAND AND SUPPLY
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO SCENARIOS TOWARDS
VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
CRITICAL MINERAL
ASSESSMENT: DEMAND
AND SUPPLY
(VOL. 10) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply vii
Authors and
Acknowledgments
Chairperson
Dr. V. K. Saraswat
Member, NITI Aayog
Leadership
Sh. Suman Bery
Vice Chairman, NITI Aayog
Sh. B.V.R. Subrahmanyam
CEO, NITI Aayog
Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj
Programme Director, Green Transition,
Energy & Climate Change Division,
NITI Aayog
Sh. Rajnath Ram
Advisor, Energy, NITI Aayog
Core Modelling Team
NITI Aayog
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist, NITI
Aayog
Dr. Anjali Jain
Consultant Grade II, NITI Aayog
Sh. Nitin Bajpai
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Knowledge Partners
Sh. Vivek Chandran
Co-Founder, Solution for Sustainable Living
(SoSuL)
Sh. Animesh Ghosh
Research Fellow, Ashoka Centre for People
Centric Energy Transition (ACPET)
Ms. Mrunali Tembhurne
Associate Fellow, TERI
Authors
NITI Aayog
Sh. Manoj Kumar Upadhyay
Deputy Adviser, NITI Aayog
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist, NITI
Aayog
Dr. Anjali Jain
Consultant Grade II, NITI Aayog
Sh. Nitin Bajpai
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Sh. Anurag Pandey
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Ms. Srishti Dewan
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Sh. Harshavardhan Reddy
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Knowledge Partners
Sh. Vivek Chandran
Co-Founder, Solution for Sustainable Living
(SoSuL)
Dr. Abhilash
Senior Principal Scientist, National
Metallurgical Laboratory, CSIR Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply viii
Authors and Acknowledgments
Ms. Meghana M
Senior Program Associate,
Energiva Ventures Pvt. Ltd.
Sh. Souvik Bhattacharjya
Director, TERI
Ms. Mrunali Tembhurne
Associate Fellow, TERI
Sh. Ravi Kasera
Research Associate, TERI
Sh. Vaibhav Chowdhary
Director, ACPET
Sh. Animesh Ghosh
Research Fellow, ACPET
Sh. Soumit Pandey
Junior Research Associate, ACPET
Ms. Saloni Sachdeva
Clean Energy Specialist, IEEFA
Ms. Kaira Rakheja
Energy Analyst, IEEFA
Sh. Charith Konda
Energy Specialist, India Mobility and New
Energy, IEEFA
Sh. Rajesh Chadha
Senior Fellow, CSEP
Sh. Ganesh Sivamani
Associate Fellow, CSEP
Sh. Karthik Bansal
Research Associate, CSEP
Dr. Amrita Goldar
Senior Fellow & Thematic Lead, ICRIER
Dr. Anjali Singh
Senior Fellow, ICRIER
Sh. Amit Kumar
Research Associate, ICRIER
Sh. Kartik Nair
Research Associate, ICRIER
Ms. Ritika Verma
Research Associate, ICRIER
Sh. Sarwar Ali
Research Associate, ICRIER
Peer Reviewers
Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran
Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India
Sh. Partha Sarathi Reddy
Programme Director, NITI Aayog
Sh. Ateesh Kumar Singh
Additional Secretary, DPIIT, Ministry of
Commerce and Industry
Sh. Dinesh V. Ganvir
ADG, Geological Survey of India
Sh. Surendra Kumar Gotherwal
Scientist-E, Ministry of Electronics and
Information Technology
Dr. Bhupendra Kumar Sharma
Scientist-D, Dept of Science and Technology
Ms. Ritika Bansal
Deputy Director, Department of Economic
Affairs
Sh. Apoorva Anand
Deputy Director, Central Electricity Authority
(CEA)
Sh. B Abhiram Vishnu
Deputy Manager, SECI
Ms. Poonam Kapur
Research Officer, NITI Aayog Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply ix
Authors and Acknowledgments
Sh. Vipul Gupta
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Dr. Sunil K. Sansaniwal
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Sh. Sharvan Kumar Pushkar
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Sh. Saksham Agarwal
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Sh. Vishal Kumar
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Ms. Afshan Ameer
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Sh. Prince Tiwari
Former Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Sh. K. Harshvardhan Reddy
Former Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Working Group Coordinators
Sh. Manoj Kumar Upadhyay
Deputy Adviser, NITI Aayog
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist,
NITI Aayog
Sh. Anurag Pandey
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Sh. K. Harshvardhan Reddy
Former Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Working Group Members
Dr. V. K. Saraswat
Member, NITI Aayog
Sh. Ishtiyaque Ahmed
Programme Director, NITI Aayog
Sh. Ateesh Kumar Singh
Additional Secretary, DPIIT, Ministry of
Commerce and Industry
Sh. Vikram Misri
Foreign Secretary of India
Sh. Lalit Bohra
DRM, Waltair (Visakhapatnam) Division, East
Coast Railway
Dr. Veena Kumari Dermal
Chief Postmaster General, Telangana Circle
Sh. Asheesh Joshi
Joint Secretary, Department of School
Education and Literacy
Sh. Chandni Raina
Adviser, Department of Economic Affairs
Dr. Deep Prakash
Head, ICPD & Scientific Secretary, AEC
Dr. Neeraj Sinha
Scientist G, Office of PSA
Dr. Sandip Chatterjee
Scientist G, Ministry of Electronics &
Information Technology
Sh. Hemraj Suryavanshi
Adviser (Technical), KABIL
Sh. Satish Kumar
Chairman and CEO of the Railway Board
Sh. Dharmendra Kumar
Joint Director, DEA
Mr. R. Srikanth
Professor and Dean, NIAS
Mr. Karthik Ganesan
Fellow, CEEW
Sh. Rajesh Chadha
Senior Fellow, CSEP
Dr. Amrita Goldar
Senior Fellow & Thematic Lead, ICRIER Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply x
Authors and Acknowledgments
Sh. Manoj Kumar Upadhyay
Deputy Adviser, NITI Aayog (Member
Secretary)
Collaborators/Expert Consultants
Sh. Lekhan Thakkar
Joint Secretary, National Security Council
Secretariat
Ms. Shwetha Rao
Director, Department of Financial Services
Dr. Sukanya Chakraborti
Chief Technical Officer, KABIL
Sh. Deepak Srivastava
Director, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas
Sh. Sureshwar Singh Bonal
Director, Ministry of Heavy Industries
Sh. Santosh Kumar
Assistant Director, Ministry of Micro, Small &
Medium Enterprises
Sh. Sanjay Sharma
Director (Solar), Solar Energy Corporation of
India Ltd
Dr. Prashant Mishra
Director (Technical), National Institute of
Solar Energy
Dr. K.K. Garg
Scientist D, Ministry of Environment, Forest
& Climate Change
Sh. Satyendra Kumar
Former Director, NITI Aayog
Sh. Mohammad Sadiq
Director (G), Ministry of Mines
Sh. Surendra Kumar Gotherwal
Scientist D, Ministry of Electronics &
Information Technology
Ms. Sunita Verma
Scientist G, Ministry of Electronics &
Information Technology
Sh. A.N. Singh
Scientist F, Ministry of Environment, Forest &
Climate Change
Sh. Surata Ram
Chief Engineer, Central Electricity Authority
Sh. Vijay Menghani
Chief Engineer (Clean Energy & Energy
Transition), Central Electricity Authority
Sh. Rishabh Jain
Senior Programme Lead, CEEW
Ms. Ilika Mohan
Research Manager, ACPET
Sh. Yogesh Sharma
Professor, IIT Roorkee
Dr. N. Ramesh Kumar
Assistant Hydrogeologist, Department of
Water Resources
Sh. Anurag Mishra
Senior Programme Manager, Shakti
Foundation
Technical Editors
Ms. Aastha Manocha
Editor and Communication Consultant
(Independent)
Ms. Rishu Nigam
Lead Editor and Communication Consultant
(Independent)
Ms. Srishti Dewan
Young Professional, NITI Aayog Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xi
Contents
List of Figures xiii
List of Tables xiv
List of Abbreviations xv
Executive Summary xvii
1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Scope and Methodology 3
2. Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition....................................................7
2.1 Embedded Mineral Requirements by Technology 8
2.1.1 Solar 8
2.1.2 Wind 12
2.1.3 Battery Energy Grid Storage Systems 14
2.1.4 Hydrogen Electrolyser 17
2.1.5 Electric Vehicle Motors 18
2.1.6 Electric Vehicle Batteries 20
2.2 Cumulative Domestic Demand for CETMs 22
2.3 India’s CETM Demand in a Global Context (2050) 26
2.4 Key Takeaways 28
3. Supply Chain Risks......................................................................................................................31
3.1 Overview of CETM Demand, Domestic Resources and Reserves, and Import Dependence 32
3.2 Domestic Critical Mineral Resources and Reserves 34
3.3 Processing of Minerals in India 35
3.4 Import Dependence – Deep Dive of Five CETMs 36
3.5 Import Dependence and Geopolitical Risks 40
3.6 Vulnerabilities of the Global Critical Mineral Supply Chains 41
3.7 Procurement of CETMs for Domestic Demand 43
3.8 Discussion of Findings 43
4. Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral.....................................................45
4.1 Allocation of Mineral Licenses 46
4.2 Incentivising Exploration 47 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xii
Contents
4.3 Accessing Credible Exploration Data 49
4.4 Post-Lease Clearances 49
4.5 National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) 49
4.6 Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) in India’s Critical Minerals Strategy 50
4.7 International Strategies 51
4.8 Mineral Markets 52
4.9 Discussion of Findings 53
5. Ecosystem Requirements for Circular Economy Solutions.................................................55
5.1 Current Landscape of Circular Economy Policies 56
5.2 Estimating E-Waste Available for Recycling 57
5.3 Identifying Optimal E-Waste Recycling Technology 58
5.4 Extent of CETM Demand that can be met by Circularity 58
5.5 Alternative Sources of Minerals 59
5.6 Discussion of Findings 60
6. R&D Requirements for Critical Mineral Processing and Recycling...................................61
6.1 Technologies for Mineral Processing and Recycling 62
6.2 R&D-Supportive Policies In Processing and Recycling of Critical Minerals 63
6.3 Global Developments in Mineral Processing and Recycling 64
6.4 Discussion of Findings 65
7. Policy Suggestions......................................................................................................................67
7.1 Guiding Principles for Policy Action 68
7.2 Suggestions 70
Annexures...........................................................................................................................................75
References.........................................................................................................................................102 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xiii
List of Figures
Figure 1.1Methodology Adopted for Supply-Side Assessment3
Figure 2.1Solar PV – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario
(CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
10
Figure 2.2Solar CSP – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario
(CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
11
Figure 2.3Onshore Wind – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy
Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
13
Figure 2.4Offshore Wind – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy
Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
14
Figure 2.5Stationary Battery Energy Storage – Embedded Mineral Requirements under
Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
16
Figure 2.6Hydrogen Electrolyser – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current
Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
17
Figure 2.7EV Motors – Embedded Mineral Requirements19
Figure 2.8EV Batteries – Embedded Mineral Requirements21
Figure 2.9aCumulative Mineral Demand in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) & Net Zero
Scenario (NZS)
24
Figure 2.9bCumulative Mineral Demand in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) & Net Zero
Scenario (NZS)
25
Figure 2.10India's CETM Demand as Share of Global Demand in Net Zero Scenario (2050) 27
Figure 3.1Import Dependence of (A) Copper Oxides and Hydroxides and (B) Copper
Cathodes
37
Figure 3.2Import Dependence of (A) Natural Graphite and (B) Synthetic Graphite 38
Figure 3.3Import Dependence of (A) Lithium Carbonate and (B) Lithium Oxides and
Hydroxides
39
Figure 3.4Import Dependence of (A) Nickel Oxides and Hydroxides and (B) Nickel
Sulphate
40
Figure 3.5India’s Import Dependency of Key Minerals vs. Geopolitical Risk41
Figure 5.1Cumulative CETM Recoveries from E-Waste Between 2025 and 2047 in
Current Policy Scenario
57
Figure 5.2Share of CETM Demand Fulfilled by Recycled Minerals between 2025 and
2047 Current Policy Scenario
59 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xiv
List of Tables
Table 1.1 Projected Capacities of various Technologies and EV Sales Penetration 4
Table 2.1 Market Share of Technologies under Solar PV and Concentrated Solar Power 9
Table 2.2 Market Share of Technologies under On-Shore Wind and Off-Shore Wind 12
Table 2.3 Market Share of Technologies under Battery Energy Storage Systems15
Table 2.4 Market Share of Battery Technologies under Electric Vehicles’ Different
Categories
21
Table 3.1 Comparison of CETM Demand with Remaining Resources, Reserves and
Import Dependence
33
Table 4.1 Results of Auctions for Critical Mineral Blocks47
Table 4.2 Recent PSU Activity on CETMS50
Table 6.1 Summary of Minerals Analysed for Processing and Recycling Technology and
R&D Readiness
62 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xv
List of Abbreviations
AELAlkaline Electrolysers
ARCIInternational Advanced Research Centre for Powder Metallurgy and New
Materials
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
ASSBAll Solid-State Batteries
BESSBattery Energy Storage System
BWMRBattery Waste Management Rules
CAMCathode Active Material
CEEWConsumer Electrical and Electronics Waste
CETClean Energy Technology
CETMCritical Energy Transition Minerals
CPSCurrent Policy Scenario
CSPConcentrated Solar Power
CTOConsent to Operate
DMF District Mineral Foundation
ECEnvironmental Clearance
ELExploration Licence
EOLEnd-of-Life
EPRExtended Producer Responsibility
EVsElectric Vehicles
FCForest Clearance
FCFSFirst Come First Serve
FPICFree, Prior and Informed Consent
HCLHindustan Copper Limited
HSHarmonised System
ICMM International Council on Mining and Metals
IESSIndia Energy Security Scenarios
IRELIndian Rare Earths Limited
IRMAInitiative for Responsible Mining Assurance
ITEWInformation Technology and Telecommunication Equipment Waste
JVJoint Venture
KMMLKerala Minerals and Metals Limited Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xvi
List of Tables
LCALife-Cycle Assessment
LCTLow-Carbon Technology
LFPLithium Iron Phosphate
LTOLithium Titanate Oxide
MMDRMines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act
MRVMonitoring, Reporting, Verification
MSPMineral Security Partnership
MtMillion Tonnes
NASICON Sodium Superionic Conductor
NMCNickel Manganese Cobalt
NMETNational Mineral Exploration Trust
NPENational Policy on Electronics
NZSNet Zero Scenario
OEMOriginal Equipment Manufacturer
PEMEL Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolysers
PLIProduction Linked Incentive
PMSMPermanent Magnet Synchronous Motors
PVPhotovoltaic
QCI-NABET Quality Council of India – National Accreditation Board for Education
and Training
QUADQuadrilateral Security Dialogue
REERare Earth Elements
RPORenewable Purchase Obligations
S&T PRISM The Science and Technology Promotion of Research and Innovation in
Startups and MSMEs
SOELSolid Oxide Electrolysers
SRMSwitched Reluctance Motors
TAFTechnology Assessment Framework
TEETechnical, economic and environmental
TIMES The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System
TOPSIS Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation
TQBTechnically Qualified Bidders
TRLTechnology Readiness Level
WLCWildlife Clearance
ZEVZero-Emission Vehicle Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xvii
Executive Summary
India’s pathway to Net Zero by 2070 will be materially shaped by secure, affordable and
responsible access to Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs). This report estimates
cumulative mineral needs arising from India’s deployment of clean technologies across selected
key segments: Solar PV, Wind, Battery Energy Storage Systems, EVs (Batteries and Motors),
and electrolysers, and benchmarks them against global demand to assess strategic exposure
and leverage. In 2050, India’s demand under a Net Zero Scenario (NZS) averages about 9% of
global demand across shared CETMs. This is sizable in absolute terms but insufficient for price-
setting power, highlighting the need for a deliberate supply-chain strategy. Beyond scale, timing
matters: over two-thirds of cumulative demand arrives after mid-century, creating both urgency
to de-risk supply now and opportunity to localise value chains and recycling as volumes mature.
Illustratively, by 2050, copper requirements exceed 20 million tonnes (Mt), and graphite alone
surpasses 14 Mt, justifying robust planning for domestic mining, processing, and recycling.
The Modelling Exercise and Scenarios
This study links technology deployment pathways to embedded mineral demand through 2070
under two scenarios: Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS). This report
leverages inputs from other working groups, namely power and transport, to estimate the
critical mineral requirements.
Inputs such as technology-specific deployment trajectories (solar, wind, battery storage,
electrolysers) and derived Electric Vehicle (EV) sales from the other working groups are used
to assess mineral requirements. The analysis further examines how this demand can be met
through domestic resources and reserves, while accounting for import exposure, geopolitical
risk, and policy instruments, including the National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM). It considers
circularity potential and Research and Development (R&D) readiness in processing/recycling.
Due to certain limitations in this study (e.g., static material intensities; partial sectoral coverage),
the results are intended as a directional decision aid that will need to be refined as technologies
and markets evolve.
Key Demand Modelling Insights
1. Scale and timing: Over 66% of cumulative Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs)
demand materialises after 2050. Therefore, planning must front-load exploration,
processing, circularity, and strategic sourcing.
2. Absolute needs: Cumulative Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) needs
projected under Net Zero Scenario (~169 Mt) are 51% more than CPS (~112 Mt), with Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xviii
Executive Summary
the rise concentrated in battery-linked minerals. By 2050, copper demand is estimated
to exceed 20 Mt, and that of graphite to surpass 14 Mt, signalling the magnitude of
midstream/refining and recycling systems India must build even if its global market
share remains modest.
3. Drivers by technology
i. Batteries (EVs, battery storage): EVs and Battery Energy Storage Systems
(BESS) together dominate future Critical Energy Transition Minerals’ demand,
accounting for approximately 55% and 5%, respectively, with concentrated mineral
requirements for graphite, lithium, nickel, phosphorous, cobalt and vanadium,
making storage security pivotal.
ii. EV Motors & Wind: These hinge on rare earths (Neodymium, Praseodymium,
Dysprosium, Terbium) for permanent magnets, critical to domestic manufacturing
ambitions.
iii. Solar Photovoltaic (PV): Second-highest total demand with a share of about 31%,
driven by large volumes of silicon and copper, with additional strategic exposure
to gallium, germanium, and tellurium in advanced PV variants.
iv. Electrolysers: Smaller volumes overall but there is reliance on scarce, high-cost
catalysts such as Platinum and Iridium.
Priority Challenges
1. High import exposure and concentration risk: For several priority minerals such as
graphite, India is highly import-dependent with exposure to geopolitically sensitive or
single-supplier sources.
2. Domestic capacity gaps: Even where domestic resources exist (e.g., copper/graphite),
bottlenecks in exploration, mine operationalisation, refining and recycling slow value-
chain development. Private participation too remains constrained by commercial risk
and permitting frictions.
3. Vulnerabilities in global mineral supply chains: Export restrictions, foreign control of
upstream assets, long-term offtake lock-ups and price volatility limit late-entrant access.
In areas of narrow dependence, disruption risks persist even with friendly suppliers.
4. Circularity at insufficient scale (near-term): While recycling can materially help for
battery minerals, it cannot be a viable substitute for primary supply due to outpaced
demand in early years. Further, collection efficiency, technology maturity, and feedstock
access limit attainable shares before 2050.
5. R&D limitations: India has mature capabilities in select minerals and streams, but overall
readiness is uneven across 18 mapped Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs).
Sustained, mission-oriented R&D is required in processing and recycling to onshore
value addtion.
Policy Suggestions
India’s critical minerals challenge is defined by a combination of rapidly rising demand, high
import dependence, concentrated global supply chains, long development timelines and Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xix
Executive Summary
increasing expectations around environmental and social performance. While multiple initiatives
address parts of this challenge, supply security will ultimately depend on how well demand
growth, domestic capacity creation, international engagement, innovation and governance are
aligned over time.
The Suggestions are primarily aimed toward de-risking Critical Energy Transition Mineral supply
chains, to be guided by six principles and operationalised through interlinked pillars spanning
domestic exploration and innovation, international sourcing, midstream capacity & circularity,
and supported by cross-cutting institutional reforms. Together, these Suggestions attempt to
provide a coherent framework for action while remaining adaptable to uncertainty and evolving
market conditions.
Six Guiding Principles
1. Empower private sector leadership across the value chain: Enable private investment
and operational leadership by aligning regulatory, fiscal and compliance frameworks
with the risk and timelines of Critical Energy Transition Mineral activities.
2. Recognise differentiated timelines across supply sources: Sequence interventions
across recycling, refining, overseas sourcing and mining based on realistic development
horizons.
3. Build diversified and mutually beneficial international partnerships: Reduce
concentration risk through strategic, value-chain–based cooperation with trusted
partners.
4. Embed environmental and social safeguards as supply-security enablers: Treat
environmental standards, social licence and transparency as core to long-term project
viability and market access.
5. Drive mission-oriented innovation and R&D: Focus public R&D on deployment-
ready and next-generation technologies that reduce dependence and improve
competitiveness.
6. Strengthen institutional capacity, data systems and coordination: Anchor decision-
making in robust data, modelling and centre–state coordination mechanisms.
Pillars of Policy Action
Pillar-1: Strengthen Domestic Exploration and Mining
a. Rebalance exploration and licensing regimes: Introduce conditional First Come, First
Served (FCFS) access for early-stage exploration of priority Critical Energy Transition
Minerals with milestones, data disclosure and rights-based progression.
b. Make private participation the default in early-stage exploration: Prioritise private
explorers for exploration licences using conditional First Come, First Served (FCFS)
mechanisms suited to geological uncertainty.
c. Improve geological knowledge and data credibility: Mandate Committee for
Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards (CRIRSCO) aligned reporting and
strengthen pre-competitive geological intelligence for regulatory decision-making. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xx
Executive Summary
d. Align public-sector mining capabilities with Critical Energy Transition Mineral
priorities: Review and realign PSU mandates, assets and investment priorities with
national critical minerals objectives.
e. Preserve environmental and social accountability: Retain public consultation, restrict
expedited approvals to compliant proponents and mandate independent audits.
f. Improve permitting efficiency and coordination: Establish coordinated centre–state
permitting mechanisms, including Chief Secretary–led committees and digital tracking
systems.
Pillar-2: Build Domestic Innovation and Technology Capability
a. Establish a mission-oriented critical raw materials R&D framework: Shift from
fragmented projects to outcome-oriented missions aligned with national risk and
deployment priorities.
b. Create pilot-to-commercialisation pathways: Develop shared pilot and demonstration
infrastructure and deploy First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) risk-sharing instruments tied to
performance benchmarks.
c. Enable structured international technology co-development and absorption: Pursue
joint R&D and pilots while embedding domestic capability-building and localisation
requirements.
Pillar-3: Diversify International Supply Sources and Reduce Import Risk
a. Adopt risk-differentiated international engagement strategies: Classify minerals by
concentration and geopolitical exposure and tailor overseas engagement accordingly.
b. Embed India in resilient global value-chain arrangements: Identify minerals suitable
for shared processing and refining hubs through bilateral and plurilateral frameworks.
c. De-risk overseas access through aggregation and facilitation: Provide project-
preparation support, aggregate demand for equity and offtake, and coordinate overseas
engagement through a single-window platform.
d. Strengthen KABIL for overseas Critical Energy Transition Mineral execution: Enhance
capitalisation, specialist capabilities and execution partnerships with experienced
overseas-facing PSUs and financial institutions.
e. Improve price discovery and market risk management: Facilitate access to global
exchanges and hedging instruments and integrate market signals into sourcing and
stockpiling decisions.
Pillar-4: Scale Circularity and Refining
a. Unlock reliable secondary feedstock for Critical Energy Transition Minerals: Permit
controlled imports of high-value scrap, enable authorised access to mine tailings and
legacy waste, and undertake a national assessment of tailings potential.
b. Make refining and advanced recycling economically viable: Deploy a targeted package
of capital support, output-linked incentives and tax rationalisation for refining and
advanced recycling facilities. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xxi
Executive Summary
c. Enable clustered refining and recycling capacity: Extend National Critical Mineral
Mission (NCMM)-linked processing cluster support to advanced recycling hubs,
including common infrastructure and anchor-firm-led models.
d. Secure access to critical refining and recycling technologies: Facilitate bilateral and
plurilateral technology access arrangements with embedded domestic capability-
building requirements.
e. Strengthen environmental and compliance safeguards: Reinforce Extended Producer
Responsibility (EPR) verification, traceability and third-party audits to ensure incentives
accrue only to compliant operators.
Pillar-5: Institutional Architecture
a. Establish a National Critical Raw Material (CRM) Analytical Strategy Unit: Create a
mandate-neutral, non-executing strategic function responsible for system-level CRM
risk assessment, strategic prioritisation, and preparation of the Net Zero Technology
and Materials Roadmap and National Critical Raw Materials Strategy.
b. Institutionalise a National Critical Raw Materials Strategy and early-warning system:
Prepare strategy integrating demand signals, supply-risk assessments and strategic
priorities, supported by periodic assessment of critical raw material risk and early-
warning.
c. Enable strategic project designation and coordination: Identify a limited set of
strategic critical raw material projects and apply enhanced inter-ministerial and centre–
state coordination to resolve bottlenecks, without diluting statutory safeguards.
d. Improve calibration and coordination of policy and market instruments: Review the
adequacy and sequencing of approvals, incentives, finance and market instruments to
support the timely execution of priority Critical Raw Material (CRM) projects. 1
INTRODUCTION Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 2
Introduction
1
Low-Carbon Technologies (LCTs), such as solar photovoltaic panels (PV), Battery Energy Storage
Systems (BESS), wind turbines, and Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs), will need to be deployed at
a progressively larger scale to enable India’s energy transition to achieve Net Zero Emissions by
2070. India has a nascent but rapidly expanding LCT manufacturing industry, which is essential
to achieving its ambitious climate targets, while creating jobs and strengthening economic
resilience. These technologies rely on critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare-
earth elements, which are currently mined and processed by a limited number of countries
globally (International Energy Agency, 2024). The high reliance on imported minerals and the
concentration of their global supply chain present significant risks of price volatility and supply
disruptions. Some of the vulnerabilities arise from overseas geological concentration and the
governance challenges in exporting countries, environmental, social and governance concerns
at mining and processing sites, and systemic shocks including natural disasters and pandemics
such as COVID-19.
Recognising the economic importance and supply risks associated with such minerals, Ministry
of Mines released a list of 30 critical minerals in June 2023, identified from a range of industries
including electronics, defence, and renewable energy (Committee on identification of Critical
Minerals, 2023). This list comprises 28 distinct elements along with 17 Rare Earth Elements
(REEs) Group and 6 Platinum Group Elements (PGEs), totalling 51 individual elements. 24
minerals were classified as ‘Critical and Strategic Minerals’ under the MMDR Act. Of these, 21
of the 28 individual elements, and the two group elements of REE and PGE were common
between the two lists (See Annex A.1).
NITI Aayog launched a comprehensive initiative to develop a Net Zero aligned development
roadmap for critical minerals. A set of inter-ministerial working groups was convened to assess
the impact of long-term transition pathways across key domains like macroeconomic aspects
of transition, sectoral transformations in transport, power, industry, buildings, and agriculture,
financing for climate action, critical minerals, R&D and manufacturing, and the social implications
of transition. Within this effort, the Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Critical Minerals is tasked
with the following terms of reference:
i. Demand assessment for Renewable Energy (RE): Assess the demand for critical
minerals/materials in view of increased demand for renewable energy technologies
(Energy Storage, Solar, Wind, Electrolyser, Grid inverter etc) in Net Zero Scenario.
ii. Demand assessment for transport: Assess the demand for critical minerals/materials
for the automobile sector in India (2-wheelers (2W), 3-wheelers (3W), 4 -wheelers
(4W), Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) – EVs and Hybrid) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 3
Introduction
iii. Supply chain risks: Assess the risks in supply chain of critical minerals/materials and
suggest Suggestions for domestic exploration, enhancing domestic production and
suggesting measures for external trade such as friend shoring, acquisition of assets
overseas etc.
iv. Examine the role of circular economy in recycling and re-use of critical minerals.
v. Examine the domestic mining policy of basic metals from the perspective of
Aatmanirbhar Bharat.
vi. Assess the crucial and emerging clean energy technologies relevant to India’s Net
Zero transition and readiness.
vii. Suggest appropriate R&D and industrial ecosystem for promoting indigenous
processing and recycling of minerals.
1.1 SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
To address both demand and supply-side aspects of the critical minerals required for India’s
clean energy transition through 2070, and to guide policy and technological interventions, this
study employs the following structured approach:
As illustrated in Figure 1.1, the analysis begins with scenario-based projections of low-carbon
technology deployment derived from the integrated assessment modelling undertaken by NITI
Aayog to develop India’s Net Zero transition pathways. Based on these projections, embedded
critical mineral demand is estimated using technology-specific market share assumptions.
The study then assesses supply options by mapping this demand against domestic reserve
availability, circular economy potential, and imports. The detailed methodology is described
below:Low Carbon Technology Pathways (CPS/NZS) Embedded Critical Mineral Demand Supply of Critical Minerals Domestic Mining Imports Circularity Policy Recommendation
to overcome supply gaps
Figure 1.1: Methodology Adopted for Supply-Side Assessment
I. Low-Carbon Technology Pathways
An integrated energy sector model, developed by NITI Aayog, projects future energy demand,
fuel consumption, and emissions across the entire energy system under two scenarios: Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 4
Introduction
Current Policy Scenario (CPS) represents a continuation of policies implemented up to 2023,
projecting current trends in technology deployment and energy use. While the scenario allows
for the introduction of new low-carbon technologies, their adoption is assumed to advance
gradually, accelerating only once commercial viability is achieved.
Net Zero Scenario (NZS) incorporates both existing measures and additional policy interventions
required for India to achieve Net Zero GHG emissions by 2070. It assumes a proactive, sustained
and large-scale deployment of low-carbon technologies, supported by enabling policies, targeted
investments, and infrastructure development.
This study uses five-year projections (2025-2070) of new capacity additions for key low-carbon
technologies, including solar, onshore and offshore wind, Battery Energy Storage Systems
(BESS), green hydrogen electrolysers, Electric Vehicles (EVs), covering both growing demand
and replacement of ageing infrastructure.
Managing Uncertainty
To account for inherent uncertainties in long-term modelling, the results from both the scenarios
were interpreted with a ±10% variation margin. However, as the objective is to support forward-
looking planning and preparedness under a range of possible futures, the upper bound of
the projected capacity additions under both the scenarios has been used. This ensures a
precautionary estimate for Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) demand, to enable strategic
readiness for higher levels of deployment aligned with a Net Zero pathway.
Key Trends in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
New capacity additions reveal sharply differing trajectories between CPS and NZS, with
implications for the scale and timing of Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) demand.
The projected capacity of key technologies studied here, derived from detailed energy sector
modelling by NITI Aayog, is provided in Table below:
Table 1.1: Projected Capacities of Various Technologies and EV Sales Penetration
Technology
Name
Current Policy ScenarioNet Zero Scenario
2050 207020502070
Cumulative Capacities
Solar (GW)1,430-1,650 3,150-3,250 2,400-2,500 4,900-5,650
Wind (GW)430-500 900-1,050 700-770 1,050-1,300
Grid Storage (GW) 420-520 1,300-1,400 900-1,150 2,500-3,000
Green Hydrogen
(million tonnes)
8.5242550
EV Penetration in New Sales
2W100% 100% 100% 100%
3W90%90%100% 100%
4W-Car60%80%70%85%
4W-Taxi60%80%95%95% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 5
Introduction
Bus80%80%90%90%
Vehicles payload up to
3.5 tonnes
60%80%90%95%
Vehicles payload from
3.5-12 tonnes
15%60%50%95%
Vehicles payload
above 12 tonnes
4%50%25%80%
Overall, the Net Zero pathways represent an earlier and more intense expansion of clean
technologies, implying earlier and more intense mineral demand compared to CPS. This has
direct implications for supply chain readiness, exploration timelines, and the need for near-term
action on mineral sourcing and processing infrastructure.
II. Embedded Critical Mineral Demand Assessment
The methodology (detailed in Annex B) used to estimate demand for India’s Critical Energy
Transition Minerals (CETMs) through 2070 is structured into four core steps:
Step 1: Technology Deployment Scenarios
The demand assessment of Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) is based on the
anticipated scale and composition of low-carbon technology deployment. It covers a defined
group of technologies central to this transition, including solar PVs, concentrated solar, wind
turbines, EVs, BESS, and hydrogen electrolysers. Demand is assessed at multiple milestone years
through 2070, under two scenarios: Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario, allowing
temporal comparison of material needs under different levels of ambition.
The analysis focuses on embedded mineral demand, which is the total mineral content required
to deploy each unit of a given low-carbon technology, irrespective of where that technology is
manufactured. This approach does not distinguish between domestic production and import,
captures the full mineral requirement associated with India’s deployment targets. This framing
offers a robust proxy for understanding the scale of India’s future mineral footprint, independent
of future uncertainties in domestic manufacturing capacity or import dependence.
Step 2: Technology Variants and Market Share Projections
Within each technology category, specific technology variants (e.g., lithium battery chemistries
such as Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) and Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC)) were identified
based on Technology Readiness Level (TRL), efficiency, and End-of-Life (EOL) characteristics.
Due to data limitations, a heuristic approach was used to project market shares (Annex D):
the assumption is for the share of mature technologies (TRL 8–9) to decline, and of emerging
ones with greater efficiencies (TRL 4–7) to grow over time as they commercialise, scale, and
become cheaper.
Step 3: Estimating Mineral Intensity
Mineral intensity values (in tonnes per unit capacity) were sourced from secondary literature
and applied per technology variant. These intensities are expressed in tonnes per Gigawatt (t/
GW) for generation technologies and tonnes per Gigawatt hour (t/GWh) for storage systems. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 6
Introduction
Electrolyser capacities were inferred from green hydrogen production targets and efficiency
assumptions (See Annex C).
Step 4: Calculating Cumulative Embedded Mineral Demand
The cumulative demand for each critical mineral was computed using annual installation
projections, market share of each variant, and its mineral intensity.
Demand growth reflects both increasing clean-technology deployment and evolving variant
shares, while mineral intensities remain constant. The final Critical Energy Transition Mineral
(CETM) demand estimates were aggregated across all variants and technologies for 2030,
2047, and 2070, offering a long-term outlook on India’s mineral needs.
III. Critical Mineral Supply Assessment
This assessment examines India’s options for securing access to Critical Energy Transition
Minerals (CETMs) through a combination of domestic reserves, international trade, and circular
economy pathways. The study assesses vulnerabilities across key dimensions, including
geopolitical vulnerabilities, market concentration, environmental and social risks in upstream
supply regions, and institutional constraints. The study also identifies critical gaps in R&D for
mineral processing, refining and recycling, the lack of which could constrain India’s ability to
onshore CETM value chains.
Finally, the study also reviews the existing policy ecosystem to determine its adequacy
and highlight gaps and opportunities for strengthening institutional frameworks, innovation
ecosystems, and strategic partnerships.
The Suggestions from this study focus on long-term strategic priorities for de-risking India’s
mineral supply chains, including innovation, circularity, international partnerships, and institutional
strengthening. The aim is to provide a forward-looking policy framework rather than a detailed
roadmap.
Key Limitations
The projections for Critical Energy Transition Minerals in this study should be interpreted as
directional estimates rather than prescriptive forecasts due to the following limitations:
i. Some systems, such as grid infrastructure and embedded electronics, were excluded
due to data and modelling limitations. As a result, the demand estimates presented
here should be interpreted as conservative, representing only a subset of India’s
broader mineral demand landscape for a Net Zero transition
ii. Static mineral intensity assumptions, which may not reflect future technological
improvements
iii. Heuristic assumptions regarding market shares of technology variants.
iv. Exclusion of several energy-sector components and cross-economy mineral uses (e.g.,
copper in electronics and construction), which may increase total demand.
v. Rapid evolution of clean-energy technologies, environmental and social compliance
requirements and global trade and regulatory regimes, all of which may influence
future mineral needs.
These uncertainties should be considered when considering the findings and suggestions of
this study. 2
CRITICAL MINERALS
REQUIRED FOR INDIA’S
NET ZERO TRANSITION Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 8
Critical Minerals
Required for India’s
Net Zero Transition
At the heart of India’s Net Zero ambitions lies a fundamental question: what minerals are
required to power the low-carbon technologies driving this transition, and in what quantities?
This chapter addresses that question by estimating the total critical minerals required to deploy
low-carbon technologies in India through 2070.
Drawing from the broader list of 30 critical minerals identified by the Ministry of Mines, this
chapter identifies the Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) subset most essential to the
energy transition. It maps CETMs to specific technologies, outlines their functional roles, and
highlights materials used across multiple systems. By calculating the long-term, cumulative
requirement of each CETM under Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario, this chapter
provides the foundation for supply-side actions, including risk mitigation, circularity potential,
and policy priorities on critical minerals.
The chapter concludes with a comparative analysis of India’s projected CETM demand against
global estimates, offering insight into India’s potential influence and exposure within international
supply chains.
2.1 EMBEDDED MINERAL REQUIREMENTS BY TECHNOLOGY
2.1.1 Solar
Solar PV technologies are categorised into crystalline silicon (including monocrystalline,
polycrystalline, and heterojunction), thin-film (such as cadmium telluride [CdTe] and copper
indium gallium selenide [CIGS]), and emerging perovskite-based systems (including tandem
and all-perovskite types). Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) systems include parabolic troughs
and solar towers, representing linear and point-focus designs, respectively. In total, the solar
analysis covers 16 critical minerals: silicon, copper, graphite, indium, gallium, tellurium, cadmium,
selenium, tin, titanium, tungsten, germanium, molybdenum, nickel, vanadium and niobium, each
linked to specific sub-technologies depending on its material composition and performance
characteristics.
Market Shares
Market share trajectories strongly shape the mineral demand profile across Current Policy
Scenario and Net Zero Scenario. Table 2.1 provides the market share of a few major technologies
for solar PV and Concentrated Solar Power under both the scenarios. For detailed technological
market share, refer to Annexures D.
2 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 9
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Table 2.1: Market Share of Technologies under Solar PV and Concentrated Solar Power
Technology
Current Policy ScenarioNet Zero Scenario
2030 2050 2070 2030 2050 2070
Solar PV Technology
Monocrystalline
Silicon (mono-Si)
PV
52% 40% 32% 50% 32% 24%
Polycrystalline
Silicon (poly-Si)
PV
27% 19% 17% 28% 12% 5%
Heterojunction
Silicon (HJT) PV
10% 17% 19% 10% 18% 20%
Copper Indium
Gallium Selenide /
(CIGS) Thin-film
PV
3% 7% 12% 5% 11% 16%
Perovskite-based
technologies
0% 11% 13% 0% 14% 22%
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
Parabolic troughs 94% 86% 80% 75% 30% 20%
Solar power
towers
6% 14% 20% 25% 70% 80%
As indicated in the Table 2.1, the shifts toward low-silicon PVs and tower-based CSP carry
significant implications for future mineral demand, particularly for thin-film and perovskite
materials that rely on a broader set of specialty minerals.
Mineral Demand
Solar PV and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) show distinct mineral patterns under both
scenarios (see Figures 2.1 and 2.2). Copper and silicon are the most critical minerals for solar PV.
Copper demand grows steadily across both scenarios because nearly all PV sub-technologies
use copper extensively. Under Net Zero Scenario, copper demand sits consistently above
Current Policy Scenario (10% in 2025-30, rising to ~55% in 2031-50, and ~64% in 2051-70). This
is driven by higher overall PV deployment and the continued dominance of crystalline-silicon
families, which have high copper intensity (~4,450-4,600 t/GW). Silicon demand, by contrast,
grows more slowly than copper in both scenarios as market shares shift from mono-Si and
poly-Si toward emerging low-silicon alternatives.
Thin-film and by-product metals see sharper uplifts under Net Zero Scenario, because this
scenario grows CdTe and CIGS shares faster than Current Policy Scenario (e.g., by mid-century
Net Zero Scenario assigns CdTe 9–13% and CIGS 7–14% vs lower shares under Current Policy
Scenario). This drives up demand for materials such as tin, cadmium, molybdenum, indium,
tellurium, and selenium, all of which show similar–shaped growth curves due to shared use
across thin-film PV. Growth in perovskite APT technologies also increases graphite demand
sharply post-2040.
Germanium demand under Net Zero Scenario (NZS) initially dips (~48%) because amorphous-
Si shares decline early and faster in NZS than Current Policy Scenario. However, because NZS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 10
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
has a larger PV base overall due to higher demand electrification, germanium demand rises
again during 2050–70 before eventually phasing out under both scenarios as amorphous-Si is
fully phased out.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Silicon (CPS)
Silicon (NZS)
million tonnes
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Tin (CPS)
Tin (NZS)
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
Tellurium (CPS)
Tellurium (NZS)
Cadmium (CPS)
Cadmium (NZS)
Selenium (CPS)
Selenium (NZS)
Indium (CPS)
Indium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Gallium (CPS)
Gallium (NZS)
Tungsten (CPS)
Tungsten (NZS)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Germanium (CPS)
Germanium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-20302031-20502051-2070
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Silicon (CPS)
Silicon (NZS)
million tonnes
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Tin (CPS)
Tin (NZS)
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
Tellurium (CPS)
Tellurium (NZS)
Cadmium (CPS)
Cadmium (NZS)
Selenium (CPS)
Selenium (NZS)
Indium (CPS)
Indium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Gallium (CPS)
Gallium (NZS)
Tungsten (CPS)
Tungsten (NZS)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Germanium (CPS)
Germanium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-20302031-20502051-2070
Figure 2.1: Solar PV – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net
Zero Scenario (NZS) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 11
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Gallium, molybdenum, titanium, nickel and tungsten show moderate growth, shaped by their
limited application in thin-film and perovskite variants, emerge from negligible Current Policy
Scenario bases and scale in Net Zero Scenario, yielding ~108–120% in 2031–50 and ~170–185%
in 2051–70.
In Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies, mineral demand is concentrated in copper,
nickel, molybdenum, vanadium, titanium, and niobium. Demand for copper and nickel is
especially significant due to its high intensity of use in both CSP sub-technologies, although
overall copper’s demand trajectory falls and nickel’s increases due to shifting market shares
between parabolic troughs and solar towers. In the Net Zero Scenario, copper, molybdenum,
and titanium demand reduces, due to lowering of parabolic troughs in favour of towers. In
contrast, towers are more nickel-intensive (~1,800 vs ~940 t/GW) and include use of niobium
(~140 t/GW).
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0
Niobium (CPS)
Niobium (NZS)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Vanadium (CPS)
Vanadium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.2: Solar CSP – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and
Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
When viewed together, these findings highlight copper as the most consistently demanded
mineral across both PV and CSP technologies. Silicon stands out as the only mineral whose
rate of demand declines
1
under Net Zero Scenario, reflecting a major shift in the technology
mix. The rise of perovskite PV introduces new material dependencies (nickel, graphite, tungsten,
molybdenum and titanium), reshaping the mineral demand profile of solar deployment.
Although Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) contributes a relatively modest share of total solar-
1 The total installed capacity of solar PV in Net Zero Scenario is almost 1.5 times than the installed capacity in Current
Policy Scenario. However, the demand of silicon per GW in Net Zero Scenario is lower than the demand per GW in
Current Policy Scenario due to technology shift. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 12
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
sector mineral demand, its reliance on materials such as nickel and vanadium suggests emerging
supply risks if CSP deployment expands. Taken as a whole, solar’s mineral requirements are not
only scale-dependent but also highly sensitive to technology transitions, especially under a Net
Zero aligned pathway.
2.1.2 Wind
Wind-turbine mineral requirements are shaped primarily by drivetrain design, making it
essential to understand how gearbox-based and direct-drive systems differ in their material
intensity. This analysis focuses on turbine-level components; therefore, higher mineral intensities
typically associated with offshore wind foundations and subsea infrastructure are not modelled
here. Wind turbines are broadly categorised into two drivetrain configurations: gearbox-based
systems, which use a mechanical gearbox to increase rotor speed before electricity generation,
and direct-drive systems, which eliminate the gearbox and connect the rotor directly to a low-
speed, high-torque generator.
While gearbox-based turbines are currently more prevalent due to their lower capital costs,
direct-drive configurations are gaining traction particularly in offshore and remote settings
owing to superior reliability and reduced maintenance needs. Direct-drive systems, however,
rely more heavily on rare earth permanent magnets containing neodymium, praseodymium,
dysprosium, and terbium. This section examines turbine-level mineral requirements across copper,
nickel, molybdenum, neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium. The Table
2.2 shows differences across Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario in technology
configuration, for a few major technologies for wind on-shore and wind off-shore. For detailed
technological market share, refer to Annex D.
Table 2.2: Market Share of Technologies under On-Shore Wind and Off-Shore Wind
2
Technology
Current Policy ScenarioNet Zero Scenario
2030 2050 2070 2030 2050 2070
Onshore wind
GB-HS-
PMSG (GB
HS PMG)
37% 41% 45% 43% 45% 45%
GB-DFIG 22% 11% 5% 7% 0% 0%
DD-EESG 32% 35% 37% 24% 27% 28%
DD-PMSG 8% 11% 12% 25% 28% 28%
Offshore wind
GB-SCIG 57% 50% 45% 5% 4% 3%
DD-PMSG 31% 26% 24% 82% 87% 88%
GB-MS PMG 12% 13% 14% 12% 10% 9%
As drivetrain preferences evolve, so will the distribution of mineral demand. Increasing adoption
of permanent-magnet machines, especially in Net Zero Scenario, amplifies dependence on
2 DD – Direct Drive; DFIG – Doubly Fed Induction Generator; EESG - Electrically Excited Synchronous Generator; GB
-Gearbox; HS – High Speed; MS – Medium Speed; PMG – Permanent Magnet Generator; PMSG – Permanent Magnet
Synchronous Generator; SCIG – Squirrel Cage Induction Generator Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 13
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
copper and rare earth elements, highlighting the need for proactive supply-chain and materials-
strategy planning.
Mineral Demand
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
million tonnes
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
Neodymium (CPS)
Neodymium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
051015202530
Praseodymium (CPS)
Praseodymium (NZS)
Dysprosium (CPS)
Dysprosium (NZS)
Terbium (CPS)
Terbium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.3: Onshore Wind – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario (CPS)
and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Onshore wind is the primary driver of mineral demand in the near term. Under Net Zero
Scenario (NZS), mineral requirements for onshore wind are consistently higher than Current
Policy Scenario (CPS) due to greater capacity additions and a larger share of permanent-
magnet machines (see Figure 2.3). Copper shows the highest increase, approximately 62%,
34% and 36% above CPS across the three periods, reflecting its widespread use in wiring,
generators and power systems. Nickel and molybdenum, used in high-strength steel components,
contribute steadily to overall demand. The sharpest increases appear in rare-earth elements,
namely neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium driven by the expanding use
of Neodymium Iron Boron (NdFeB) magnets in Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generators
(PMSGs).
Offshore wind shows broadly similar mineral demand patterns, though absolute volumes remain
lower due to smaller cumulative deployment (see Figure 2.4). Rare-earth demand rises strongly
because DD-PMSG
3
configurations are Rare Earth Element (REE)-intensive. Net Zero Scenario
premia for these minerals grow sharply from mid- to late-century (e.g., praseodymium at ~159%,
3 Direct Drive-Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 14
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
201%, 325%), while Yttrium, required for Direct Drive High-Temperature Superconducting (DD-
HTS) machines, albeit at very low volume, is absent due to the phase-out assumed in the Net
Zero Scenario.
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0102030405060
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Neodymium (CPS)
Neodymium (NZS)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
Praseodymium (CPS)
Praseodymium (NZS)
Dysprosium (CPS)
Dysprosium (NZS)
Terbium (CPS)
Terbium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Yttrium (CPS)
tonnes
2025-20302031-20502051-2070
Figure 2.4: Offshore Wind – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario (CPS)
and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Overall, mineral demand in wind energy is shaped primarily by capacity-addition trajectories and
drivetrain market-share shifts. Copper and nickel consistently lead the total volumes, followed
by rare earths used in direct-drive systems. Unlike solar, wind technologies experience fewer
disruptive transitions; however, their continued reliance on imported REEs remains a critical
supply risk, reinforcing the need for diversification, material substitution and long-term sourcing
strategies.
2.1.3 Battery Energy Grid Storage Systems
The mineral requirements of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) reflect the diversity of
storage chemistries from lithium-ion systems to emerging sodium and flow batteries, each with
its own critical-material profile. This analysis, thus, considers a wide range of BESS technologies,
including lithium-ion chemistries (such as Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC), Lithium Iron
Phosphate (LFP), and Lithium Titanate Oxide (LTO)), flow batteries (e.g. vanadium redox), Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 15
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
solid-state batteries (SSBs), sodium-ion and bromine, zinc- and sulphur-based systems. The
assessment tracks seven key critical minerals: graphite, lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, vanadium,
and phosphorous. While lithium-ion variants dominate in diversity and application (e.g., LFP),
individual chemistries differ significantly in their reliance on critical minerals. For instance, NMC
batteries are nickel- and cobalt-intensive, LFP avoids both entirely, and SSBs offer the potential
to reduce graphite use.
The market-share trajectory reflects these characteristics and is identical for Current Policy
Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS). Table 2.3 shows the market share for a few major
technologies under BESS. For detailed technological market share, refer Annex D.
The shares of Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) 811, 622, and 523 decline from 2% each
in 2025 to 0% by 2035.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)’s share, meanwhile, decreases from 90% in 2025 to 46%
in 2070.
Lithium titanate chemistry goes from 0 to only 5.7% between 2025 and 2070.
Na-ion chemistries share increases from 1% in 2025 to 22% in 2070, while vanadium
redox flow batteries expand from 1% to 4% over the same period.
Collectively, these trends indicate a more diversified future battery market, with mineral demand
spread across a wider range of chemistries, underscoring the need for parallel development of
multiple critical mineral supply chains.
Table 2.3: Market Share of Technologies under Battery Energy Storage Systems
Technology203020502070
Lithium Iron Phosphate86.0%65.8%46.1%
Lithium Titanate0.9%3.3%5.7%
Sodium Iron Phosphate
(NaFePO₄)
1.0%3.0%4.4%
Prussian Blue Analogues
(Na₂Fe[Fe(CN)₆])
1.0%3.0%4.4%
NASICON (Na₃V₂(PO₄)₃1.0%3.0%4.4%
Layered Sodium Manganese
Oxide (NaMnO₂)
1.0%3.0%4.4%
Sodium Nickel Manganese Cobalt1.0%3.0%4.4%
Vanadium Redox Flow Battery1.5%2.7%4.0% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 16
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
Phosphorous (CPS)
Phosphorous (NZS)
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Vanadium (CPS)
Vanadium (NZS)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Lithium (CPS)
Lithium (NZS)
million tonnes
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.5: Stationary Battery Energy Storage – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current
Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Mineral Demand
BESS-related mineral demand rises sharply under Net Zero Scenario (NZS), largely due to
higher installed storage capacity to support higher Renewable Penetration (see Figure 2.5). This
yields a broad NZS rise of 4.7 times in 2025-230 and moderating to roughly 2.3 times in 2031-
2070 as compared to CPS. Across both scenarios, the primary demand drivers are graphite,
phosphorus and copper. Owing to their use across a wide range of chemistries, graphite and
copper remain consistently high in demand throughout. Phosphorus and lithium also show
steady demand due to the strong presence of Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) chemistries.
Vanadium demand increases from the 2030s onward as deployment of vanadium redox flow
batteries accelerates, reaching around +146% above Current Policy Scenario (CPS) in 2051–70.
Nickel maintains demand across all periods even as Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt (Li-NMC)
chemistries are phased out, due to the emergence of nickel-bearing sodium-ion chemistries.
Titanium and cobalt record the lowest demand for Battery Energy Storage System (BESS),
reflecting the niche application of Lithium Titanate Oxide (LTO) and the progressive reduction
of cobalt intensity across battery chemistries.
A notable caveat is the possibility that lithium demand for BESS may reduce significantly
after 2040 if sodium-ferrous-phosphate chemistries mature faster than assumed in this study,
particularly if they begin to displace their lithium-equivalent Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
chemistries due to comparable cost advantages. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 17
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
2.1.4 Hydrogen Electrolyser
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
million tonnes
020406080100120
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Zirconium (CPS)
Zirconium (NZS)
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
Silicon (CPS)
Silicon (NZS)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Iridium (CPS)
Iridium (NZS)
Lanthanum (CPS)
Lanthanum (NZS)
Platinum (CPS)
Platinum (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Yttrium (CPS)
Yttrium (NZS)
Strontium (CPS)
Strontium (NZS)
Cerium (CPS)
Cerium (NZS)
Gadolinium (CPS)
Gadolinium (NZS)
tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
million tonnes
020406080100120
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Zirconium (CPS)
Zirconium (NZS)
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
Silicon (CPS)
Silicon (NZS)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Iridium (CPS)
Iridium (NZS)
Lanthanum (CPS)
Lanthanum (NZS)
Platinum (CPS)
Platinum (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Yttrium (CPS)
Yttrium (NZS)
Strontium (CPS)
Strontium (NZS)
Cerium (CPS)
Cerium (NZS)
Gadolinium (CPS)
Gadolinium (NZS)
tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.6: Hydrogen Electrolyser – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario
(CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
The total projected demand for Green Hydrogen is given in Table 1.1. Three key electrolyser
technologies have been considered for this analysis: Alkaline Electrolysers (AEL), Proton
Exchange Membrane Electrolysers (PEMEL), and Solid Oxide Electrolysers (SOEL). AELs, Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 18
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
the most commercially mature (TRL 8–9), depend heavily on nickel, copper, zirconium, and
graphite, with minor cobalt use. PEMELs, also at high readiness levels, require copper, graphite,
silicon, and trace quantities of platinum-group metals such as iridium and platinum. SOELs, with
lower maturity (TRL 5–6), use a broader and more diverse range of minerals, including nickel,
zirconium, silicon, titanium, lanthanum, cerium, strontium, yttrium, and gadolinium. The market
share trajectory reflects these characteristics and is identical for Current Policy Scenario (CPS)
and Net Zero Scenario (NZS).
Alkaline Electrolyser (AEL) dominates at 65% in 2025, and is projected to decline to
45% by 2050 and 25% by 2070
Proton Exchange Membrane (PEMEL) increases from 23% in 2025 to 30% by 2050
and 34% in 2070.
Solid Oxide Electrolyser (SOEL), which grows from just 10% in 2030 to 25% by 2050
and 41% by 2070, becoming the leading electrolyser type by the end of the projection
period.
This shift implies a gradual move away from technologies reliant on PGMs and cobalt toward
those requiring a broader set of critical minerals, especially rare earths and refractory metals,
highlighting the increasing complexity of mineral demand linked to green hydrogen production.
Mineral Demand
Electrolyser-related mineral demand scales steeply under Net Zero Scenario (NZS), driven
initially by rapid increases in installed capacity and later by changes in technology shares. Across
both scenarios, nickel records the highest overall demand due to its central role as a catalyst
and electrode material in AEL and SOEL. Copper, zirconium and graphite follow, with varying
intensities across electrolyser types. Precious-metal catalysts (iridium, platinum) and titanium
see a mid-period spike (around +190%) as PEMEL’s share increases (Iridium ~1.4; Platinum ~0.19;
Titanium ~1.05 t/GW), before declining as SOEL deployment accelerates after 2050.
As AEL and PEMEL shares fall and SOEL expands, demand for minerals such as silicon, titanium,
lanthanum, cerium, strontium, yttrium and gadolinium becomes more stable and grows over
the long term. SOEL’s material profile (Silicon ~14.1; Titanium ~6.5; Lanthanum ~1.29; Strontium
~0.038; Cerium ~0.019; Yttrium ~0.063 t/GW) sustains late-century Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
demand uplifts of roughly +108–110% for silicon, titanium and the lanthanides.
2.1.5 Electric Vehicle Motors
EVs primarily use either induction motors or Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSMs).
Among these, PMSMs dominate due to their high torque-to-weight ratio and superior efficiency,
with their market share projected to exceed 90% in the coming years (Gauß et al., 2021). These
motors commonly rely on neodymium and dysprosium (Dy), used in NdFeB (neodymium-iron-
boron) permanent magnets, with each motor typically requiring 0.5 to 1.2 kg of REEs. Copper
is also extensively used in stator windings and electrical interconnects (European Commission,
2020).
Alternative motor types such as Switched Reluctance Motors (SRMs) offer the possibility of
avoiding rare earths altogether. However, they often involve trade-offs in terms of acoustic
performance, efficiency, and control complexity. In the Indian context, where magnet production Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 19
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
is largely import-dependent, any shift in motor designs could significantly impact rare earth
demand forecasts. There is growing global R&D interest in replacing NdFeB magnets with
ferrite or iron-nitride magnets, particularly in China and South Korea, which are scaling domestic
production of non-REE-based motors (Alves et al., 2020).
Mineral Demand
Traction motor materials scale with deeper electrification under Net Zero Scenario (NZS) and
continued preference for permanent-magnet traction in two-, three-, and four-wheelers. Copper
demand increases steadily under both scenarios, with NZS significantly outpacing Current
Policy Scenario (CPS) from 2030 onward (see Figure 2.7). By 2070, cumulative copper demand
under NZS reaches nearly 4.4 million tonnes, ~40% higher than under CPS, reflecting greater
electrification across vehicle segments and more aggressive EV adoption.
By 2070, cumulative demand under the NZS is projected to exceed 250 kilo tonnes for
neodymium and nearly 127 kilo tonnes for dysprosium, primarily due to widespread use of
PMSMs in four-wheelers and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (HDVs). Demand for cobalt, used in specialised
magnetic alloys for certain motor designs, also increases under NZS compared to CPS.
Segment-wise, four-wheelers and HDVs are projected to account for the largest share of
motor-related mineral demand after 2030, driven by higher power requirements and increased
adoption of high-efficiency drivetrains. Two- and three-wheelers, though dominant in early
volumes, contribute less intensively to copper and REE demand due to lower motor power
ratings. Overall, NZS sits 2.2 times higher than CPS in 2025–30, moderating to 1.4 times in
2031–70 as overall EV uptake, rather than major design mix shifts, becomes the principal driver
of demand. 012345
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
million tonnes
050100150200250300
Neodymium (CPS)
Neodymium (NZS)
Dysprosium (CPS)
Dysprosium (NZS)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.7: EV Motors – Embedded Mineral Requirements Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 20
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
2.1.6 Electric Vehicle Batteries
Lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) currently dominate electric vehicle battery technology and rely
heavily on critical minerals, particularly in the cathode and anode compositions. The cathode
chemistry is typically defined by the proportion of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, and
aluminium, each influencing performance, cost, and supply risks. Examples of common cathode
chemistries include:
NMC 111 (Lithium–Nickel–Manganese–Cobalt Oxide): A balanced formulation with
moderate energy density and a cobalt content of ~20% by weight.
NMC 622 and NMC 811: Higher in nickel (up to ~80%) and significantly lower in cobalt
(<10%), resulting in higher energy density and lower cost.
LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate): A cobalt- and nickel-free alternative that uses lithium
and phosphate, which is safer and more thermally stable, though lower in energy
density.
The anode is typically composed of graphite, with a material intensity of ~0.8–1.2 kg per kWh
of battery capacity. Silicon-rich and lithium-metal anodes are under development to reduce
dependence on graphite while increasing energy density.
Electrolytes consist of lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF₆) dissolved in organic solvents.
All Solid-State Batteries (ASSBs) replace liquid electrolytes with ceramic or polymer-based
conductors, offering improved safety, durability, and greater thermal stability while potentially
reducing reliance on graphite in anodes.
The Battery Management System (BMS) incorporates electronics-grade copper and trace metals
like tantalum and silver used in circuitry and control systems. Copper also serves as a current
collector.
The market-share trajectory reflects continued advances in battery technology and remains the
same under CPS and NZS.
Across all EV categories, cobalt- and nickel-heavy chemistries decline over time and
give way to more mineral-efficient alternatives.
NMC 111 and NMC 532, both higher in cobalt, are phased out completely by 2040.
NMC 622 also declines, while NMC 811, a high-nickel, low-cobalt chemistry becomes
dominant in two, three and four-wheelers, reaching a 67% share by 2040 and remaining
stable thereafter.
LFP gradually expands, particularly in commercial vehicles, where it consistently
accounts for 80–90% of demand.
ASSBs enter the market from 2035, reaching ~14–15% of market share by 2070,
reflecting their potential to reduce dependence on graphite and liquid electrolytes.
Table 2.4 shows the market share for a few major battery technologies under different vehicle
segments. For detailed technological market share, refer Annex D. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 21
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Table 2.4: Market Share of Battery Technologies under Electric Vehicles’ Different
Categories
Vehicle Category Battery Type 2030 2050 2070
2-W & 3-W
NMC 81163%67% 67%
LFP8%11% 15%
ASSB0%14% 14%
4-W
NMC 81122%14% 4.4%
LFP50%74% 3%
ASSB0%12% 63%
Others
NMC 62210%10% 5%
LFP90%80% 80%
ASSB0%10% 15%
This transition in battery chemistry steadily alters the mineral-demand profile. Reduced use of
cobalt-intensive chemistries, alongside the growth of LFP and ASSBs, points toward a long-
term decrease in reliance on high-risk materials such as cobalt and a gradually more diverse
set of mineral inputs driven by new battery technologies.
Mineral Demand
Battery-related mineral demand is consistently higher under Net Zero Scenario (NZS) across
the full modelling horizon, with chemistry shifts shaping the relative gaps between scenarios
(see Figure 2.8). Graphite remains the most consumed mineral by volume, reaching 42 Mt under
NZS by 2070, around 43% higher than Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and rising by roughly
+124%, +42% and +43% across the three periods. Phosphorus (P) follows a similar growth
pattern, reaching ~15 Mt by 2070 under NZS, again ~44% higher than CPS. These trends reflect
strong LFP adoption in 4-wheelers through mid-century (~58%, then ~74%) and the continued
role of lithium- and sodium-phosphate chemistries thereafter.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Phosphorous (CPS)
Phosphorous (NZS)
Lithium (CPS)
Lithium (NZS)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
million tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.8: EV Batteries – Embedded Mineral Requirements Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 22
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Nickel and cobalt show the largest NZS early uplift, about +97% and +101% respectively in 2030,
before moderating to around +35% and +39% in 2051–70 as 4-wheelers further transition to
LFP and then increasingly to ASSB (which reaches ~34% in late-century 4-wheelers). By 2070,
cumulative nickel demand reaches ~8.8 Mt under NZS (~36% above CPS), while cumulative
cobalt demand reaches ~1.4 Mt (~40% above CPS).
Lithium shows greater demand growth early under NZS +122% in 2025–30), moderating to +42%
and +41% in subsequent periods, reflecting its presence across almost all major chemistries. By
2070, cumulative lithium demand reaches ~5 Mt under NZS, ~42% above CPS.
Copper demand associated with EV batteries is also significant, totalling over 19 Mt under NZS
by 2070 about 42% higher than CPS owing to its widespread use in current collectors, electrical
connections, and the broader EV architecture.
Overall, battery-related mineral demand is shaped by chemistry evolution, increasing battery
size, and the pace of electrification across vehicle segments. Two- and three-wheelers dominate
initial volumes, while four-wheelers and heavy-duty vehicles contribute the most mineral-
intensive battery requirements after 2030. Under NZS, cumulative mineral demand for EV
batteries is projected to be about 40% higher than CPS, driven by more rapid uptake and
greater fleet-wide electrification.
2.2 CUMULATIVE DOMESTIC DEMAND FOR CETMS
Understanding how mineral needs accumulate over the next five decades is essential for
anticipating supply gaps and investment priorities. This section synthesises projected cumulative
demand for CETMs from 2025 to 2070 under Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero
Scenario (NZS). Under NZS, India requires an estimated ~169 Mt of CETMs, about 51% more
than CPS (~112 Mt). Drawing on demand projections from solar, wind, batteries, electrolysers and
EVs, the analysis examines temporal patterns, scenario differences and the relative contributions
of each technology.
Top Demand Drivers
Copper and graphite emerge as the CETMs with the highest cumulative demand by 2070,
at roughly 66 Mt and 46.4 Mt, respectively, under Net Zero Scenario. Copper’s dominance
reflects its widespread application across solar PV, wind turbines, EV batteries, EV motors, and
electrolysers. Graphite demand arises almost entirely from battery anodes, with more than 95%
sourced from EV and Battery Energy Storage Systems. Silicon follows at ~19 Mt, driven mainly
by solar PV deployment. Phosphorus demand reaches ~16.6 Mt, reflecting its critical role in LFP
batteries in both EVs and BESS.
Nickel also stands out at ~11 Mt due to its applications in EV batteries, BESS, wind turbines
and electrolysers. Other high-volume CETMs include lithium at ~5.4 Mt, cobalt at ~1.4 Mt, and
vanadium at ~0.7 Mt, all tied primarily to battery technologies. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 23
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Technology-Specific Mineral Dependencies
While many critical minerals are required across multiple Low-Carbon Technologies (LCTs),
many display highly concentrated demand profiles tied to specific applications. A noteworthy
subset of minerals, including neodymium, molybdenum, dysprosium, titanium and tin, also
exhibit scale of demand above 0.1 Mt and 1 Mt.
Wind energy and EVs are the exclusive drivers of demand for neodymium,
praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium (rare earth elements essential for permanent
magnets in turbine generators and EV motors).
Solar-exclusive minerals include gallium, tellurium, selenium, and germanium, many of
which are essential for advanced PV technologies, exposing vulnerabilities in supply
chains.
Electrolyser-dominant minerals such as iridium, platinum, strontium, and gadolinium
in contrast are low-volume, vital for green hydrogen production, and geopolitically
sensitive due to supply concentration.
A long-tail of minerals including strontium, gadolinium (REE), germanium, and yttrium
has relatively low overall demand but may prove crucial for specialised applications
and future innovations, warranting strategic attention.
Temporal Distribution
Demand for Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) is heavily backloaded. Under Net Zero
Scenario, only ~2% of cumulative demand occurs in 2025–2030, ~32% in 2030–2050, and ~66%
in 2050–2070. This means that two-thirds of total CETM requirements materialise after 2050.
Some outliers deviate from the general pattern. Silicon, for example, reaches 4.7% of its
total demand by 2030 and ~34% by 2050 due to early front-loaded PV deployment, after
which demand slows as non-silicon PV shares rise. Minerals such as zirconium, germanium,
and molybdenum show higher early-to-mid-century demand due to their roles in electrolysers
and PV. Conversely, minerals such as vanadium, titanium, selenium, indium, gallium, tungsten,
niobium, lanthanum, yttrium, strontium, cerium, and gadolinium accumulate more than 75% of
their demand after 2050.
Technology-Wise Contribution
The technology-wise distribution of cumulative Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM)
demand under Net Zero Scenario shows clear concentration patterns (see Figures 2.9a and
2.9b - graphs are split in two for readers ease):
EV batteries dominate, accounting for ~55% of total demand, with substantial shares
of lithium, phosphorous, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and copper.
Solar technologies follow with ~30% of total demand, particularly for copper and
silicon, and smaller volumes of tin, indium, tellurium, and selenium.
Wind energy contributes ~6%, driven primarily by REEs and copper.
Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) accounts for ~5%, driven by graphite, nickel,
cobalt, vanadium, and copper.
Electrolysers contribute only <1%, but still demand a diverse mix of CETMs including
iridium, platinum, zirconium, and lanthanum. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 24
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
EV motors contribute ~3%, concentrated in Rare Earth Elements (REEs) (neodymium,
dysprosium, praseodymium, terbium, and yttrium), alongside copper.
783,401
1,454,118
5,468,664
11,543,688
16,689,150
19,538,259
46,489,124
66,069,466
41.03%
70.59%
65.69%
56.12%
62.98%
74.23%
67.50%
66.44%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Vanadium (CPS)
Vanadium (NZS)
Vanadium (Tech)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
Cobalt (Tech)
Lithium (CPS)
Lithium (NZS)
Lithium (Tech)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Nickel (Tech)
Phosphorous (CPS)
Phosphorous (NZS)
Phosphorous (Tech)
Silicon (CPS)
Silicon (NZS)
Silicon (Tech)
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
Graphite (Tech)
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Copper (Tech)
P
SolarWindBESSElectrolysersNZS 2025-30NZS 2030-50NZS 2050-70
EV Batteries EV MotorsCPS 2025-70 (% of NZS 2025-70)
47,787
50,450
52,468
118,845
124,052
150,003
273,855
482,485
42.59%
33.82%
33.82%
34.42%
40.93%
66.65%
74.75%
58.18%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Zirconium (CPS)
Zirconium (NZS)
Zirconium (Tech)
Cadmium (CPS)
Cadmium (NZS)
Cadmium (Tech)
Tellurium (CPS)
Tellurium (NZS)
Tellurium (Tech)
Tin (CPS)
Tin (NZS)
Tin (Tech)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Titanium (Tech)
Dysprosium (CPS)
Dysprosium (NZS)
Dysprosium (Tech)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
Molybdenum (Tech)
Neodymium (CPS)
Neodymium (NZS)
Neodymium (Tech)
Figure 2.9a: Cumulative Mineral Demand in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) & Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
(Interpretation of graph - Bar 1: Share across different technologies under NZS; Bar 2: Share across
different time horizons under NZS; Bar 3: Proportion in CPS relative to the NZS;
Secondary y-axis: – Total demand under the NZS (Tonnes) and percentage in CPS relative to NZS) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 25
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
1,853
1,871
4,041
4,268
6,162
20,636
29,743
37,342
89.79%
20.15%
38.78%
38.92%
36.21%
38.50%
35.03%
38.92%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Germanium (CPS)
Germanium (NZS)
Germanium (Tech)
Niobium (CPS)
Niobium (NZS)
Niobium (Tech)
Tungsten (CPS)
Tungsten (NZS)
Tungsten (Tech)
Gallium (CPS)
Gallium (NZS)
Gallium (Tech)
Terbium (CPS)
Terbium (NZS)
Terbium (Tech)
Indium (CPS)
Indium (NZS)
Indium (Tech)
Praseodymium (CPS)
Praseodymium (NZS)
raseodymium (Tech)
Selenium (CPS)
Selenium (NZS)
Selenium (Tech)
G
L
1
2
4
7
36
144
263
44.97%
44.97%
44.97%
95.51%
44.03%
44.97%
44.03%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%
Gadolinium (CPS)
Gadolinium (NZS)
adolinium (Tech)
Cerium (CPS)
Cerium (NZS)
Cerium (Tech)
Strontium (CPS)
Strontium (NZS)
Strontium (Tech)
Yttrium (CPS)
Yttrium (NZS)
Yttrium (Tech)
Platinum (CPS)
Platinum (NZS)
Platinum (Tech)
Lanthanum (CPS)
Lanthanum (NZS)
anthanum (Tech)
Iridium (CPS)
Iridium (NZS)
Iridium (Tech)
SolarWindBESSElectrolysersNZS 2025-30NZS 2030-50NZS 2050-70
EV Batteries EV MotorsCPS 2025-70 (% of NZS 2025-70)
Figure 2.9b: Cumulative Mineral Demand in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) & Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
(Interpretation of graph - Bar 1: Share across different technologies under NZS; Bar 2: Share across
different time horizons under NZS; Bar 3: Proportion in CPS relative to the NZS;
Secondary y-axis: – Total demand under the NZS (Tonnes) and percentage in CPS relative to NZS) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 26
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
The detailed information about Critical Energy Transition mineral requirement under Current
Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS) is provided in Annex E.
Mineral-diversity patterns matter for risk. Lower diversity (e.g., graphite–lithium–nickel for EVs and
BESS; Nd–Pr–Dy–Tb for wind) heightens supply exposure, whereas higher diversity complicates
procurement, standardisation and recycling. Among the LETs studied, mineral diversity varies
by system class: among end-use systems, EVs draw on the fewest CETMs (~9 across batteries
and traction motors); among grid infrastructure, BESS uses ~8, wind relies on ~8, solar (PV +
CSP) spans ~16; and hydrogen electrolysers (AEL/PEMEL/SOEL) involve ~14.
Together, these trends highlight the breadth and depth of mineral dependencies across India’s
clean-energy transition and underscore the need for diversified, long-term supply strategies.
2.3 INDIA’S CETM DEMAND IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT (2050)
This section places India’s projected Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) demand in a
global context. This provides a clearer picture of the country’s role in international mineral value
chains.
Understanding this comparison serves four strategic purposes:
1. It identifies Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) where India’s projected demand
could justify localisation of value chains, including mining, refining, and recycling.
2. It clarifies where India may, or may not, have the leverage to shape global prices,
production volumes, or trade dynamics.
3. It informs procurement strategies for minerals with limited domestic demand,
particularly where leveraging strategic international partnerships may be preferred.
4. The analysis also highlights the potential for Indian public and private entities to invest
in global supply chains.
Even where domestic demand may not support full value chain development, overseas
investments, aligned with global demand trends, could deliver strategic and commercial benefits.
Instruments such as KABIL and India’s participation in plurilateral platforms like the Minerals
Security Partnership (MSP) can help operationalise this strategy.
Methodology
This assessment compares the projected CETM demand in 2050 with global demand projections
published in the Global Demand Outlook (2025) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Both
datasets focus on mineral requirements for clean energy technologies such as batteries, solar
PV, wind turbines, and electric vehicles in a Net Zero pathway.
Of the 37 CETMs tracked by the IEA and 31 tracked by this study, 27 minerals are common to
both. IEA reports Platinum Group Elements (PGEs) as a single group “Platinum Group Metals
(excluding iridium)”, whereas this study treats iridium and platinum separately and therefore
compares platinum demand with IEA’s PGMs (excluding iridium) demand. Only phosphorous,
cerium (used in nickel-metal hydride batteries), gadolinium and strontium (both used in solid-
oxide electrolysers) fall outside the common list. All 27 common minerals were retained for
comparison. Eventually, a small subset of thin-film PV-linked minerals (cadmium, indium, Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 27
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
tellurium, tin, selenium, tungsten, and germanium), iridium and dysprosium were excluded due
to their relatively low requirements and high sensitivity to technology pathway assumptions.
The share of global demand was calculated as the ratio of India’s 2050 demand to IEA’s global
projections for each mineral. These results are visualised in Figure 2.10.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Copper
Graphite
Silicon
Nickel
Lithium
Cobalt
Vanadium
Neodymium
Molybdenum
Titanium
Zirconium
Praseodymium
Terbium
Gallium
Niobium
Lanthanum
PGMs
Yttrium
India (%) Global (%)
Figure 2.10: India's CETM Demand as S hare of G lobal Demand in Net Zero Scenario (2050)
Analysis of Relative Shares
India’s projected Critical Energy Transition Minerals demand in 2050 under NZS constitutes an
average 9% of global demand. Three broad patterns emerge, driven by differences in technology
mix, deployment scale, and material-intensity assumptions.
1. Minerals with Mid-Tier Shares (10–15%): Three Critical Energy Transition Minerals fall in this
range:
Silicon –12.5%
Neodymium –12.4%
Graphite –10.5%
These reflect India’s strong build-out in PV (silicon), batteries (graphite), and sustained use of
permanent magnets (Nd). Their elevated shares reinforce the importance of domestic processing
and recycling strategies.
2. Minerals with Low-to-Mid Relative Shares (3–10%): Nine Critical Energy Transition Minerals
fall within this range
Copper – 9.8%
Zirconium – 9.5%
Cobalt – 8.0% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 28
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Terbium – 5.8%
Titanium – 5.7%
Lithium – 5.7%
Molybdenum – 5.4%
Nickel – 4.5%
Praseodymium – 4.9%
These support EV/BESS growth (Ni, Li, Co, Ti), wind/PV structures and alloys (Mo), REE magnets
(Pr, Tb), and electrolysers (Zr). They warrant scalable domestic processing and recycling capacity
without the concentration risks seen in the high-share group.
3. Trace Demand Minerals (<3%): India’s demand for the following Critical Energy Transition
Minerals accounts for less than 3% of global totals:
Lanthanum – 2.44%
Vanadium – 1.5%
Gallium – 0.95%
PGMs – 0.82%
Niobium – 0.54%
Yttrium – 0.33%
These minerals are typically used in specialised applications, high-performance alloys and
coatings in advanced electrolysers (Lanthanum, PGMs, Yttrium), battery storage (Vanadium),
PV and Concentrated Solar Power (Gallium, Niobium) and motors in wind turbines (Yttrium).
These are less prominent in India’s current energy mix, but may grow in importance under
future industrial decarbonisation scenarios and warrant close monitoring.
2.4 KEY TAKEAWAYS
This study identifies 31 of the 51 tracked elements (corresponds to 23 of the 30 critical minerals
listed by the Ministry of Mines) as Critical Energy Transition Minerals essential for India’s Net
Zero pathway. The list spans bulk-use base metals, eight rare earth elements (lanthanum, cerium,
neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium, and yttrium), and two platinum
group elements (platinum and iridium). Together, they highlight the diversity of materials needed
to support the scale and diversity of India’s low-carbon technology deployment.
Functional Categories of Mineral Demand
The projected mineral requirements reveal distinct functional clusters across clean energy
technologies:
1. Bulk-use base metals such as copper and nickel underpin multiple technologies, EV
batteries, motors, solar systems, and storage and form the structural backbone of the
transition. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 29
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
2. Storage-critical minerals like graphite, lithium, phosphorous, cobalt, and vanadium
anchor battery chemistries. Their limited substitution potential and sourcing challenges
must be addressed early to avoid downstream disruptions in EVs and grid-scale storage.
3. Rare earth elements, notably neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and
yttrium, are indispensable for high-performance permanent magnets in EV motors
and wind turbines. These are low-volume but high-criticality materials, often tied to
geographically concentrated supply chains, with limited alternatives.
4. PV-specific minerals present a dual challenge: while dominated by bulk silicon demand,
they also depend on niche and high-risk minerals like gallium, tellurium, selenium, and
germanium, often sourced from geopolitically sensitive regions.
5. Electrolyser-specific minerals like iridium, platinum, zirconium, and strontium, though
low in volume, are crucial for green hydrogen production and are constrained by high
cost and limited global availability.
Demand by Technology
Across low-carbon technologies, EVs generate the largest share of Critical Energy Transition
Mineral (CETM) demand, accounting for ~55% of the total. Solar technologies contribute ~30%.
Wind (~6%) and BESS (~5%) together represent ~11%, followed by EV motors (~3%). Electrolysers
account for <1%.
These patterns underscore the distinct material footprints of each technology class. EV batteries
and BESS drive high demand for graphite, lithium, nickel, phosphorous, cobalt, and vanadium,
requiring targeted strategies to secure supply. EV motors and wind technologies depend heavily
on neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium materials that must be prioritised for
India’s domestic manufacturing ambitions. Solar technologies, while dominated by silicon, rely
on strategic minerals such as gallium, germanium, and tellurium, exposing vulnerabilities in
upstream supply chains. Electrolysers, although contributing a modest share, depend on scarce
elements such as platinum, iridium, and select rare earths.
Temporal Distribution of Demand
A key finding is that over 66% of cumulative Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) demand
will materialise after 2050. This underscores both the urgency and the opportunity: early action
to secure supply chains, investing in recycling, and strengthening domestic capability can yield
long-term resilience and strategic advantage.
India in the Global Context
India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) demand in 2050 accounts for <~10% of global
demand for most minerals, limiting its ability to influence global pricing, investment flows, and
production decisions. Supply security will therefore depend on proactive strategies, including
long-term offtake agreements, diversified international partnerships, and strengthened mineral
diplomacy.
Yet the absolute volumes involved remain significant. Projected requirements of more than 20
Mt of copper and 14 Mt of graphite by 2050 justify substantial investment in domestic mining,
processing, and recycling, even in the absence of global market leverage. 3
SUPPLY CHAIN
RISKS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 32
3
Supply Chain Risks
The criticality of minerals is generally estimated by gauging their economic importance and
supply risks. Economic importance reflects the share of gross value-added in the manufacturing
sector that could be disrupted if a mineral becomes unavailable. Supply risk captures the
combined impact of geographic concentration in extraction and processing, and the quality of
governance in major supplier countries. Higher concentration and weaker governance increase
exposure to disruptions. Supply risk is further amplified when minerals lack viable substitutes,
when a country has high import dependence, and when domestic recycling capacity is limited.
This section employs a multi-pronged methodology to assess supply chain risks associated
with Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs). First, it compares projected cumulative
mineral demand (2025–2070) with India’s known reserves, resource base, and current levels
of import dependence to identify material-specific supply gaps. Second, domestic production
and processing capacities are evaluated to assess the readiness of India’s mineral value chain,
including gaps in extraction technologies, refining infrastructure, and recycling capabilities.
Third, trade exposure is analysed against geopolitical risks in key supplier countries to highlight
high-risk materials and suppliers that warrant strategic attention. Finally, it reviews global critical
mineral supply chains’ weaknesses, drawing on secondary evidence from international trade
publications, academic literature, industry reports, and government databases, focusing on
trends over the past decade.
3.1 OVERVIEW OF CETM DEMAND, DOMESTIC RESOURCES AND
RESERVES, AND IMPORT DEPENDENCE
Understanding India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) supply landscape requires
examining projected demand alongside domestic resource availability, reserve status, and
current import dependence. Table 3.1 compares cumulative embedded mineral demand (2025–
2070) with remaining resources, certified reserves, and import reliance for 23 priority CETMs,
highlighting material-specific gaps, mismatches, and strategic strengths.
High Demand–High Import Dependence: Minerals such as nickel, lithium, cobalt, and Rare
Earth Elements (REEs) show high cumulative demand, no reserves and near-complete import
dependence (100%). These materials are essential for battery storage, electrolysers, and wind
technologies, making supply security a critical concern and requiring urgent exploration and
domestic processing efforts.
Gaps in Domestic Reserves Data: In several high-demand minerals (for example, cobalt,
vanadium and lithium), resource estimates exist but reserves remain unestablished, creating Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 33
Supply Chain Risks
long-term ambiguity around domestic supply potential. A number of moderate- and low-
demand minerals (including tellurium, gallium, germanium and indium) also lack reserve data,
underscoring the need for accelerated exploration and improved geological reporting.
Gaps in Processing and Refining Infrastructure: Some minerals, such as copper and graphite,
have significant domestic resources and reserves yet show moderate import dependence. In
silicon, overall import dependence is low, but India remains almost fully dependent on imported
polysilicon for manufacturing crystalline silicon wafers used in solar PV. These mismatches
suggest gaps in processing capacity, refining infrastructure and economic viability rather than
geological endowment.
Trace and Niche Minerals: Some minerals (e.g., strontium, gallium, indium, tellurium, germanium)
have very low projected demand but are critical to specialised applications in solar PV and
electronics. With no reported reserves or resources, these minerals will likely need to be secured
through strategic imports or as by-products of other mineral processes.
Table 3.1: Comparison of CETM Demand with Remaining Resources
4
, Reserves
5
and Import Dependence
6
Minerals
Demand
2025-2070
(kt)
Resource
7
(kt)
Reserves
8
(kt)
Import
Dependence
9
(%)
1Copper66,069 14,96,979 1,63,891 57
2 Graphite46,489 2,03,060 8,563 28
3 Silicon19,538- - 100
4 Phosphorous16,689 2,80,377 30,876 85
5 Nickel11,543 1,89,000- 100
6 Lithium5,468-- 100
7 Cobalt1,45445,000- 100
8 Vanadium78324,633- 46
9 REE668459- 100
10Molybdenum27327,203 - 100
11Titanium1244,11,108 15,998 0
12Tin118102 0.97 100
13Tellurium52- - -
14Cadmium50.455.69 - -
4 Resources refer to the overall presence of a mineral/material within the Earth’s crust that may have potential value.
5 Reserves are the portion of the resources that are currently feasible to extract, considering existing legal permissions,
available technology, and economic conditions.
6 ‘—' indicates that the necessary data for a complete assessment are not available.
7 (Committee on Identification of Critical Minerals, 2023)
8 (Committee on Identification of Critical Minerals, 2023)
9 (Chadha, R. et al., 2023) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 34
Supply Chain Risks
Minerals
Demand
2025-2070
(kt)
Resource
7
(kt)
Reserves
8
(kt)
Import
Dependence
9
(%)
15Zirconium47.791,674 669 78
16Selenium37.34- - 100
17Indium20.64- - 100
18Gallium4.27- - 100
19Tungsten4.04144- 100
20Niobium1.87-- 100
21Germanium1.85- - 100
22PGE0.300.02- 100
23Strontium0.004-- 100
This supply-demand snapshot illustrates the urgency of strengthening India’s domestic Critical
Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) ecosystem through expanded geological exploration,
accelerated reserve certification, domestic mineral processing infrastructure, international
sourcing partnerships, and expanded circular economy pathways. Without early, coordinated
action, India risks future supply bottlenecks that could constrain its clean energy transition
goals.
3.2 DOMESTIC CRITICAL MINERAL RESOURCES AND RESERVES
India has vast untapped geological potential and has identified resources for various critical
minerals. For example, India has the world's eighth-largest resource of Rare Earth Elements
(REEs). However, only a few companies currently mine and process REEs. A similar pattern
exists for cobalt and nickel: despite sizeable resources, these have not been converted into
mineable reserves, largely due to limited domestic expertise and slow industrial uptake of
critical mineral projects.
Three structural factors underpin this underperformance:
1. Inefficient allocation of mineral resources and weak regulatory frameworks, which
hinder timely exploration and development.
2. Limited financial resources and shortage of technical expertise to develop deep-seated
mineral deposits, which are more complex and capital-intensive.
3. An auction-based allocation system that provides limited incentives for private sector
participation in exploration and mining.
By addressing these systemic constraints, India can build capacity to develop domestic reserves
of critical minerals, reducing long-term dependence on imports during a period of rapidly rising
demand of critical energy transition minerals. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 35
Supply Chain Risks
3.3 PROCESSING OF MINERALS IN INDIA
Indian industry has historically demonstrated strong capability in processing bulk minerals such
as iron ore, zinc and copper. However, for many critical energy transition minerals, domestic
processing capacity remains nonexistent. The key challenges include insufficient economies
of scale, low investment in advanced processing technologies, difficulties in securing reliable
raw material supplies (domestically and internationally), and weak domestic demand for many
processed critical minerals. This lack of demand has discouraged investment in new facilities
and hindered the development of an integrated domestic mineral value chain.
India’s copper smelting capacity is rapidly expanding, with current installed capacity around 1.03
million tonnes per annum (MTPA). While the country possesses globally competitive smelting
and refining assets (the world’s second and third largest copper smelters and sixth largest
copper refinery), the sector remains limited in terms of participants. Despite this global scale,
many smelters operate below full capacity, and in some cases, domestic production has been
constrained by regulatory and operational challenges. This has reduced domestic availability
and increased reliance on imports, reflecting broader systemic bottlenecks in India’s copper
sector.
New copper processing capacities are emerging in India, including a major project in the Kutch
region with a planned capacity of around 1 Mtpa, expected to be operational in two phases
(2025 and 2029). These additions could significantly reduce import dependence for processed
copper. However, long-term resilience will depend on a more competitive processing landscape,
supported by greater private-sector participation, foreign investment, and the growth of
medium-scale enterprises.
A similar situation exists for REE processing. India accounts for 1% of mined and 3% of processed
neodymium globally (European Commission. Directorate General for Internal Market, Industry,
Entrepreneurship and SMEs., 2023). Currently, only two public sector companies, Indian Rare
Earths Limited (IREL) and Kerala Minerals and Metals Limited (KMML) mine and process beach
sand monazite in India (Indian Bureau of Mines, 2024b). The private sector’s lack of participation
has kept India’s REE processing potential underutilised. Although the 2023 amendments to
the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act opened certain REEs for auction,
unlocking this potential will require substantial private investment supported by targeted
government incentives for advanced processing technologies and the high upfront capital these
facilities demand.
Secondary sources of critical minerals end-of-life technologies, e-waste and industrial scrap
offer an emerging pathway to reduce dependence on mineral concentrates. Many start-ups
are aiming to build domestic capability in battery recycling and materials extraction. For
instance, Lohum, founded in 2018, can recycle 2 GWh of end-of-life batteries and reuse 300
MWh annually, and raised USD 54 million in 2024 to scale operations (Lohum Raises USD
54 Million to Fuel Its Market Expansion–The Economic Times, 2024). Similarly, Altmin, another
new Indian company, has developed domestic lithium-ion cell chemistries and, with support
from the International Advanced Research Centre for Powder Metallurgy and New Materials
(ARCI), under the Union Ministry of Science and Technology, has established a pilot plant to
produce cathode-active material in Hyderabad. These early initiatives illustrate India’s growing
capability to build secondary supply chains, though substantial scale-up will require continued
government support. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 36
Supply Chain Risks
While still in early stages, these initiatives demonstrate India’s growing capability to build
domestic mineral supply chains using secondary resources. Continued government support
through funding, partnerships, and incentives will be essential to scale these efforts.
Mineral processing is inherently capital-intensive and carries technological and market risks.
Projects are typically financed through a mix of vertical integration by downstream manufacturers,
government support and commercial lending (Financing the Energy Transition – Critical Minerals
Processing, 2023). Each carries limitations, underscoring the need for targeted incentives that
attract early investment into critical energy transition mineral (CETM) processing and reduce
risk for first movers.
3.4 IMPORT DEPENDENCE – DEEP DIVE OF FIVE CETMs
This section provides a focused analysis of five critical minerals—cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium,
and nickel that are central to India’s clean energy transition. For each mineral, it examines
current import dependence, key supplier countries, market dynamics and price trends, and
identifies strategic considerations for supply security.
Cobalt
Between April 2017 and December 2023, India imported cobalt oxide and hydroxide worth USD
61.5 million. In FY2023 alone, imports totalled 445 tonnes from South Africa, 152 tonnes from
Belgium, 41 tonnes from China, 34 tonnes from Finland, and 33 tonnes from Tanzania.
Global supply is highly concentrated with 70% of cobalt mining occurring in the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC), while 70% of refining takes place in China. India’s import patterns
align with global concentration point as key cobalt refining nations – Finland, Belgium and China
– are also the largest exporters of cobalt oxide and hydroxide to India. Factors like EV demand
and shifts to alternative battery chemistries also influence the cobalt market.
Copper
India’s limited smelting capacity necessitates dependence on countries like Norway and Japan
that have mineral extraction and processing capabilities. In FY2023, India imported 359.8 tonnes
of copper oxides, with 179 tonnes from Norway, 35 tonnes from the US and 31.8 tonnes from
China (Figure 3.1a).
Copper cathode imports in FY2022 totalled 204,951 tonnes, sourced mainly from Japan (172,515
tonnes), Tanzania (22,201 tonnes), the UAE (5,023 tonnes), Mozambique (1,985 tonnes) and
Zambia (1,350 tonnes). Despite lacking domestic reserves, Japan leads in cathode exports due
to its advanced technology and strong industrial base. In contrast, Congo and Zambia have
established mining operations and significant copper reserves, with key refining operations such
as the Mopani Copper Mines and the Konkola Copper Mines. Tanzania and Mozambique also
leverage their proximity to ports to export cathodes (Figure 3.1b). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 37
Supply Chain Risks
Global copper prices have fluctuated due to US-China trade tensions, a strong US dollar in 2018,
and later supply disruptions arising from the pandemic and geopolitical events such as the
Russia–Ukraine conflict. The shutdown of India’s Vedanta smelter in 2018 turned India from a net
exporter to a net importer. Despite refined copper production rising 16% between FY2022 and
FY2023, imports increased by 180%, highlighting persistent supply gaps and strong demand
from renewable energy, EVs and electronics (PTI, 2023).
10%
15%
8%
8%
13%
64%
50%
47%
9%
7%
11%
5%
9%
13%
13%
17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
A) Copper Oxides and Hydroxides
USA SINGAPORE NORWAY
GERMANY CHINA OTHERS
89%
84%
70%
7%
11%
16%
4%4%
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
B) Copper Cathodes
JAPAN TANZANIA REP MOZAMBIQUE
CHINA OTHERS
Figure 3.1: Import Dependence of (A) Copper Oxides and Hydroxides and (B) Copper Cathodes
Source: UN Comtrade
Graphite
India imports 60% of its graphite demand due to limited domestic production, despite being
home to Graphite India, one of the world’s largest synthetic graphite-producing companies.
From April 2017 to December 2023, natural and synthetic graphite imports to India totalled
USD 1.8 billion.
Natural graphite imports in FY2023 included 20,471 tonnes from China, 12,418 tonnes from
Madagascar, 8,525 tonnes from Mozambique, 1,500 tonnes from Tanzania and 288 tonnes from
Austria. Globally, Mozambique, Madagascar, Brazil, and Tanzania are major producers of natural
graphite and present opportunities for South-South trade partnerships (Figure 3.2a).
The same year, India’s synthetic graphite imports were dominated by China at 41,661 tonnes,
followed by 1,316 tonnes from Germany, 812 tonnes from Malaysia, 660 tonnes from South
Africa, and 451 tonnes from Japan. Some of the world’s largest synthetic graphite producing
companies are in China, USA, Japan and Germany. Since 2021, China has prioritised synthetic
graphite production, which offers superior battery anode performance, and imposed export
permits requirements for high- grade materials (Figure 3.2b). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 38
Supply Chain Risks
China’s export curbs, linked to national security concerns, coincide with US and Dutch restrictions
on semiconductor-related exports to China. This opens up opportunities for India to position
itself as a key trade partner for markets looking to diversify their graphite supply chain.
42%
46%
50%
17%
19% 11%
37%
28%
33%
4% 7% 6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
A) Natural Graphite
CHINA MOZAMBIQUE
MADAGASCAR OTHERS
76%
89% 89%
4%
19%
10%
7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
B) Synthetic Graphite
CHINA NORWAY
SOUTH AFRICA UAE
OTHERS
Figure 3.2: Import Dependence of (A) Natural Graphite and (B) Synthetic Graphite
Source: UN Comtrade
Lithium
India does not currently produce lithium and relies entirely on imports of lithium battery
chemicals. Between April 2017 and December 2023, total imports of lithium compounds—
including lithium-ion cells, lithium carbonate, and lithium oxides and hydroxides—amounted to
USD 11.9 billion. However, an estimated 5.9 Mt of lithium resources were discovered in Jammu
& Kashmir in February 2023 (ANI, 2023).
In FY2023, India imported lithium carbonate primarily from the Netherlands (400 tonnes),
Belgium (227 tonnes), Ireland (200 tonnes), the US (75 tonnes) and Argentina (43 tonnes).
Lithium oxides and hydroxides in FY2023 came mainly from Belgium (537 tonnes), followed
by Russia (186 tonnes), the UAE (156 tonnes), Singapore (60 tonnes), and China (51 tonnes)
(Figure 3.3).
Global lithium markets remain highly volatile due to the concentration of refining capacity
(around 60% in China) as well as fluctuations in EV demand, pandemic-related disruptions and
supply shocks.
India is gradually trying to diversify its import partners, and the Minerals Security Partnership
(MSP) is expected to foster collaboration with other countries for lithium trade. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 39
Supply Chain Risks
23%
20%
23%
40%
22% 12%
12%
16%
39%
23%
3%
4%
11%
18%
15%
18%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
A) Lithium Carbonate
IRELAND BELGIUM
CHINA NETHERLANDS
ARGENTINA OTHERS
8%
5% 7%
22%
48%
37%
40%
17%
39%
14% 14%
8%
16% 17%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
B) Lithium Oxide and Hydroxide
CHINABELGIUMRUSSIAUAEOTHERS
Figure 3.3: Import Dependence of (A) Lithium Carbonate and (B) Lithium Oxides and Hydroxides
Source: UN Comtrade
Nickel
Despite having an estimated 189 million tonnes of nickel reserves, India relies entirely on imports
for renewable energy applications. Between April 2017 and December 2023, nickel compound
imports totalled approximately USD 590 million.
India imports nickel and its compounds from China, Australia, the US, Finland, Sweden, the
Philippines and South Africa. Australia has emerged as the dominant exporter due to the
Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement signed in 2022. In FY2023, nickel
oxides and hydroxides were primarily imported from Australia (1,760 tonnes), followed by
Sweden (233 tonnes), China (142 tonnes), Belgium (58 tonnes) and Japan (42 tonnes). Nickel
sulphate imports were heavily concentrated in Belgium (1,108 tonnes) and Japan (444 tonnes),
with smaller quantities sourced from South Africa (121 tonnes), Singapore (9.6 tonnes) and
China (6.6 tonnes) (Figure 3.4). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 40
Supply Chain Risks
43%
6%
39%
10%
10%
78%
99%
8%
3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
A) Nickel Oxides and Hydroxides
CHINA SWEDEN JAPAN
AUSTRALIA OTHERS
58%
66% 66%
15%
26%
21%
18%
7%12%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
BELGIUM JAPAN SOUTH AFRICA OTHERS
B) Nickel Sulphate
Figure 3.4: Import Dependence of (A) Nickel Oxides and Hydroxides and (B) Nickel Sulphate
Source: UN Comtrade
Belgium and Japan account for over 85% of India’s nickel sulphate imports. These countries
have well-developed metallurgical and refining industries, producing high-quality nickel sulphate
that meets international standards. Belgium-headquartered company Umicore has made
advancements in producing and supplying nickel sulphate.
Nickel markets have experienced significant volatility due to pandemic disruptions, sanctions
related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Key market drivers include demand from EV manufacturing
and battery cathode production in China, while South Korea, Japan and the Philippines play
pivotal roles in global partnerships. As battery demand increases, opportunities emerge for
India to build domestic refining and processing capacity to reduce import dependence.
3.5 IMPORT DEPENDENCE AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
High import dependence, particularly from geopolitically sensitive regions, poses significant
risks to supply-chain resilience. To inform strategic planning and policy responses, this section
analyses India’s import exposure for key critical minerals, combining trade flow data with
country-level geopolitical risk assessments.
Figure 3.5 maps key CETMs, namely cobalt, lithium, nickel, graphite, copper, and their
compounds, based on India’s import dependency (Y-axis) and geopolitical risks associated
with the source country (X-axis). Import dependence is calculated using Harmonised System
(HS) Code-based trade flow data analysis, averaging 75% of total imports between FY2019
and FY2023 to stabilise trends. Geopolitical risk levels are derived from two global studies—the
Fragile States Index (Fund for Peace, 2024) and Risk Map (Control Risks, 2024), which factor in
social, political, economic, security, operational, and environmental risks, including geopolitical
tensions, conflicts, cyber threats, corruption and climate impacts.
The graph also highlights critical vulnerabilities in India’s mineral supply chains to geopolitical
risks. Graphite (natural and synthetic) is the mineral that ranks highest because of a combination
of high import dependence and high geopolitical risk with respect to China. The figure also Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 41
Supply Chain Risks
illustrates high reliance on Japan for copper cathodes and Belgium for nickel sulphate. Although
India shares a stable and friendly relationship with both these countries, the high single-country
reliance for specific materials exposes the country to supply chain vulnerabilities in case of
natural disasters, pandemics, infrastructure failures, or unforeseen circumstances.
Figure 3.5: India’s Import Dependency of Key Minerals vs. Geopolitical Risk
3.6 VULNERABILITIES OF THE GLOBAL CRITICAL MINERAL SUPPLY
CHAINS
Bottlenecks in global supply chains can significantly constrain India’s access to critical energy
transition minerals. Disruptions—whether arising from policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, or
market dynamics have a direct bearing on mineral availability, prices and security of supply.
Regulatory actions and corporate strategies in major producing regions have further increased
barriers to the free flow of critical minerals. Five key challenges stand out:
1. Foreign Ownership of Assets
Many new mining projects globally are owned by foreign companies that have secured mining
rights through strategic investments. Critical minerals are often deep-seated and require large
capital for mineral development. Hence, foreign investments have helped unlock production in
resource-rich, but capital-poor regions. However, high levels of foreign control can limit domestic
value addition in the host country, particularly by reinforcing the export of unprocessed minerals
and the underdevelopment of downstream industries. Notably, Chinese public and private
companies have been the largest investors in overseas mineral assets. Despite the country’s
limited domestic production of minerals such as lithium and cobalt, these overseas stakes
provide steady access to mineral concentrates and reinforcing China’s dominance in mineral
processing (Leruth et al., 2022). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 42
Supply Chain Risks
2. Export Restrictions
Export restrictions on CETMs have increased fivefold over the last decade (Przemyslaw Kowalski
& Clarisse Legendre, 2023). Several countries use such restrictions to promote domestic
processing and manufacturing industries. Indonesia and China, two of the largest CETM
producers, have placed export restrictions on mineral concentrates to boost domestic mineral
processing capacity. Others, such as Bolivia (2008) and Mexico (2017), nationalised lithium
mining to increase state oversight. China’s export controls have been particularly influential,
including a 2010 restriction on Rare Earth Elements (REEs) to Japan and the 2024 restriction
on antimony, gallium, and germanium to the United States. Such actions underscore the risk of
reliance on single-country suppliers, particularly during periods of geopolitical tensions.
3. Supply Chain Contracts
Long-term mineral supply agreements, including offtake contracts, are widely used to secure
access to critical minerals. These arrangements provide producers with financial certainty and
buyers with a guaranteed supply. For example, China’s CITIC Metal combined equity investments
with an offtake agreement when acquiring a 26.5% stake in Peru’s Las Bambas copper mine
(MMG Limited, 2016). Similar strategies are used globally, including by OEMs such as Tesla,
Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, which have entered upstream supply contracts for EV raw materials.
While beneficial to participating firms, such agreements limit market access for late entrants
and reduce liquidity in the spot market, restricting opportunities for new industries to procure
minerals.
4. Price Fluctuations
Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) exhibit high price volatility driven by changes in
demand, geopolitical events and structural shifts in the energy sector (International Energy
Agency, 2024) which are essential for a range of clean energy technologies, have risen up the
policy agenda in recent years due to increasing demand, volatile price movements, supply chain
bottlenecks and geopolitical concerns. The dynamic nature of the market necessitates greater
transparency and reliable information to facilitate informed decision-making, as underscored by
the request from Group of Seven (G7. In 2023 alone, lithium prices fell by around 75%, while
nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite recorded declines of 30–45%. These swings create
uncertainty for manufacturers who face rising input costs when prices increase and for miners,
whose project viability declines sharply when prices fall. Reduced project returns make financing
difficult, and several large mining operations in Australia slowed production in early 2024 due
to depressed lithium prices (Angelica Garcia & Eri Silva, 2024). Price uncertainty is therefore a
persistent structural challenge across CETM supply chains
5. Social and Environmental Vulnerabilities
Growing demand for Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) intensifies social and
environmental pressures in major mining and processing regions. Mining operations in countries
such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Chile and Indonesia have been associated
with deforestation, water stress, contamination and biodiversity loss. For instance, lithium
extraction in Chile’s Salar de Atacama consumes substantial amounts of water, exacerbating
drought conditions and impacting Indigenous communities reliant on these water sources Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 43
Supply Chain Risks
2025). Similarly, nickel mining in Indonesia has contributed to deforestation and heavy-metal
pollution, harming local ecosystems and communities (Sawal, 2022).
Social risks are similarly severe. Extraction in several regions is linked to human rights violations,
including child labour, unsafe working conditions and displacement of Indigenous communities.
Artisanal cobalt mining in the DRC has been particularly associated with hazardous work
conditions and child labour (Cao et al., 2024)social and economic sustainability risks of cobalt
mining, particularly artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM). In many cases, projects have
proceeded without obtaining Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC), leading to community
conflict and social unrest. Addressing these vulnerabilities requires robust enforcement of
environmental and labour standards, adoption of responsible mining and processing practices
and sustained engagement with affected communities across the project lifecycle (UN Secretary
General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, 2024).
3.7 PROCUREMENT OF CETMS FOR DOMESTIC DEMAND
A stable supply of locally sourced raw materials can play a critical role in reducing India’s
import dependence. The government has introduced several Performance-Linked Incentive
(PLI) schemes to promote domestic manufacturing of green technologies and related products.
The solar PV module PLI, launched in 2021 with an initial outlay of INR 4,500 crore, aims to
strengthen domestic capacity in the solar sector. Similarly, the PLI for the Automobile and Auto
Component industry (INR 25,983 crore) and the PLI for Advanced Chemistry Cells (ACC) and
battery storage (INR 18,100 crore) are designed to accelerate domestic production of EVs and
battery technologies.
These initiatives have had a large budget outlay and have been effective in incentivising
domestic manufacturers to increase their investments in green technologies. However, they
have not been effective in growing the upstream sectors for mining and mineral processing
in India. For PLI schemes in downstream manufacturing to meaningfully support upstream
development, stronger domestic procurement requirements will be necessary. Alternatively,
dedicated PLI-like mechanisms could be introduced specifically for mining, mineral processing
and refining, attached to specific grades like for battery grade nickel, lithium, graphite etc.,
thereby strengthening the critical energy transition mineral value chain separately.
3.8 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
India’s clean-energy transition faces significant risks arising from vulnerabilities in its mineral
supply chains. Demand for Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) such as copper, lithium,
cobalt, and nickel is projected to rise sharply, yet India remains heavily import-dependent due
to limited reserves, underdeveloped processing capacity and low private-sector participation.
Although the country has substantial geological resources, these remain largely untapped
because of regulatory constraints, financial barriers and gaps in technical capability.
Geographical concentration of imports, especially from China, for several high-risk minerals,
intensifies exposure to geopolitical disruptions. India needs to leverage differentiated strategies
by mineral dependency quadrant, as outlined in the mineral dependency-risk matrix section. Some specific strategies, based on the analysis includes:
i. High dependency: For natural/synthetic graphite, diversify toward Mozambique,
Madagascar, Brazil, Tanzania, and explore cooperation with Minerals Security Partnership
(MSP) members like Germany, Norway, and Canada.
ii. High single-country reliance: For copper cathodes and nickel sulphate, build domestic
refining capacity in JV mode with Japanese partners (e.g., JX Nippon, Mitsubishi
Materials), and explore alternative suppliers like the US.
iii. Moderate dependency: For lithium oxide and nickel oxide, build domestic refining
capacity and seeking alternate import sources in South America, Australia, and Africa.
Global vulnerabilities such as export restrictions, long-term supply contracts that limit market
access, and environmental, social and governance risks in major mining regions further
compound supply insecurity. Addressing these risks will require sustained efforts to accelerate
exploration and reserve certification, expand domestic processing and refining capacity, diversify
international sourcing, and strengthen environmental safeguards and social-licence mechanisms
across the entire value chain. 4
EXISTING POLICIES TO
ENHANCE ACCESS TO
CRITICAL MINERAL Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 46
4
Existing Policies to
Enhance Access to
Critical Mineral
India’s growing demand for critical minerals has prompted a set of policy interventions to
strengthen domestic exploration, production, and processing capabilities, Recognising the
strategic importance of these minerals, the government has introduced reforms across the
legislative, regulatory, and institutional landscape most notably through amendments to the
Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957 (MMDR, 1957). This section reviews
key policies and institutional mechanisms designed to enhance access to critical minerals, with
a focus on improving mineral licensing, incentivising exploration, enabling transparent auctions,
addressing post-lease challenges, and supporting international partnerships and trade strategies.
4.1 ALLOCATION OF MINERAL LICENSES
The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957 was overhauled in 2015 to
replace the First Come First Serve (FCFS)
10
system with competitive auctions for mineral
concessions. The Act aimed to enhance transparency and reduce discretion. Further amendments
in 2019, 2021, and 2023 streamlined regulations and introduced mechanisms like the District
Mineral Foundation (DMF) to provide for the welfare of mining-affected communities and the
National Mineral Exploration Trust (NMET) to encourage exploration.
From 2015 to 2024, 554 mineral blocks were successfully auctioned, but operationalisation
has since lagged, with only 66 mines reaching the production state as of 9
th
August 2025.
Several more are expected to commence production within the 2025-2026 financial year, with
an ambitious target of 55 additional mines being operationalised in the next three quarters.
However, an emerging concern from the auctions is that in certain cases, the winning bids
exceeded 100% of the mineral’s assessed value. Such aggressive bidding carries the risk of
inflating downstream metal costs, which could impact overall sectoral competitiveness.
In 2023, critical and strategic minerals were added to the MMDR framework, and the government
launched specific auctions to secure domestic supply chains for manufacturing advanced
technologies, including low-carbon technologies. The first tranche of the critical mineral auctions
was launched in November 2023. By July 2025, five auction tranches had been conducted, with
34 out of 55 unique blocks being successfully bid out (Table 4.1). With 15 blocks of these 34,
graphite accounted for the largest share.
10 The FCFS system is the most commonly used mechanism to allocate mineral concessions globally and typically
comes with safeguards in place to ensure that leases are granted fairly Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 47
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
Table 4.1: Results of Auctions for Critical Mineral Blocks
SummaryTranche 1Tranche 2Tranche 3Tranche 4Tranche 5
Total Blocks20 18 7 21 15
Fresh blocks20 18 0 10 7
Reauctioned blocks0 0 7 11 8
Mining Leases4 1 0 1 1
Composite Licences16 17 7 20 14
Preferred bidder announced6 4 4 10 10
Fewer than 3 Technically Qualified Bidders
(TQB)
12 9 3 7 2
No bids2 5 0 43
As with the allocation of onshore mineral blocks, the Offshore Areas Mineral (Development and
Regulation) Act, 2002, was amended to introduce auctions to allocate rights in offshore areas.
India’s exclusive maritime economic zone extends around 2 million km
2
and holds resources of
construction and metallic minerals. The first tranche of 13 offshore mineral block was auctioned
in November 2024 and consisted of lime mud, construction sand, and polymetallic nodules.
While seabed mining provides a significant mineral inventory, its environmental impacts have
not yet been fully understood.
4.2 INCENTIVISING EXPLORATION
Exploration is the first stage in the lifecycle of a mining project. It is a capital intensive and
high-risk activity, demanding significant time, financial investment, technical equipment, and
specialised skills. Globally, only around 1% of exploration projects fructify into an operational
mine. This risk is often borne by small exploration focused companies–commonly called junior
explorers–who aim to discover promising mineral assets and subsequently sell the rights to
larger mining companies, using the proceeds to offset unsuccessful ventures.
Public institutions, like the Geological Survey of India (GSI), have historically conducted early-
stage exploration, including baseline reconnaissance and regional geological mapping. Their
primary role is to generate national-scale geoscientific datasets and improve transparency in
subsurface information. These activities focus on broad coverage and data creation, rather than
discovery-oriented exploration.
However, the increasing strategic importance of Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs)
highlights the limitations of an exploration ecosystem dominated by public agencies beyond
baseline geoscience. Reconnaissance and early prospecting for CETMs, especially deep-seated
or by-product-driven mineralisation, require iterative field investigation, rapid progression from
regional signals to prospect-scale testing, and risk-tolerant capital. These attributes are difficult
to sustain within institutions whose mandates prioritise broad geographic coverage, standardised
survey programmes, and non-commercial objectives.
Following the transition to the auction-based allocation regime in 2015, a ‘non-exclusive
reconnaissance permit’ was introduced to facilitate exploration. However, uptake was limited Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 48
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
as the permit neither provided exploration companies with the right to mine nor to transfer the
rights of the discovered assets.
To further support exploration, National Mineral Exploration Trust (NMET) was established,
funded by a 2% royalty contribution from mining companies. The 2021 amendments enabled
Notified Exploration Agencies (NEA) accredited by QCI-NABET to receive NMET funding. As
of January 2024, the NMET sanctioned INR 2,695 crore to 471 exploration-related projects.
However, only around 2% of the funding was allocated to private explorers, with the rest going
to public sector companies. Of the 471 projects, 244 have been completed, while the remaining
are ongoing. Most are at the G3 or G4 stages of exploration (i.e., early stages of exploration).
Around 30% of the projects focus on critical minerals, while the remaining target bulk minerals
like iron ore, coal, and bauxite.
In 2023, further amendments to the MMDR Act introduced a new concession–the Exploration
Licenses (ELs), to promote the exploration of deep-seated and critical minerals. ELs, awarded
through auctions, may be based on an area suggested by any interested party. A key concern
is that exploration companies will receive revenue for their work only after a successfully
discovered resource is auctioned and developed, an outcome that takes years to materialise, if
at all (Chadha et al., 2023). Additionally, they are only entitled to a share of the final auction
premium, the value of which remains unknown at exploration. Unlike in other jurisdictions, EL
in India does not grant the exploration company a right to mine, weakening the incentive for
private participation.
Since its introduction in 2023, several states unsuccessfully attempted to auction Exploration
Licenses (ELs). Subsequently, in late 2024, the centre took on the role of issuing EL auctions. Of
the 13 blocks auctioned under Tranche-1 in March 2025 (encompassing 10 states for 8 mineral
commodities), only 7 were successfully concluded. These outcomes underline the persistence
of discovery-stage constraints and the limited appetite for exploration under current risk-reward
structures.
International experience suggests that effective exploration ecosystems clearly differentiate
between foundational geoscience and risk-bearing discovery activity. Public agencies focus
on high-quality baseline surveys, modern geophysical datasets, and open-access geoscience
platforms. Private explorers operating under regulatory oversight and environmental and social
safeguards, and undertake reconnaissance-to-prospecting activities that convert geological
information into discoveries. These private explorers are typically incentivised by the ability to
internalise discovery upside through transferable exploration rights, time-bound progression
to subsequent licence stages, and clear pathways to monetise successful discoveries through
asset sales, partnerships, or downstream development. Such sequencing strengthens the entire
exploration-to-mining pipeline and improves auction outcomes by ensuring that allocated
blocks are supported by credible geological intelligence, thereby reducing non-participation
and speculative bidding (S Vijay Kumar, 2019).
Incentivising the exploration of critical energy transition minerals requires recalibrating the
balance between public and private roles at the early stages of the exploration lifecycle. Public
institutions such as GSI should continue to anchor national geoscience programmes and
data systems. Reconnaissance and prospecting activities should increasingly enable private
participation through transparent, time-bound licensing frameworks that better align discovery
incentives with downstream allocation mechanisms. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 49
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
4.3 ACCESSING CREDIBLE EXPLORATION DATA
Ministry of Mines in 2023 launched the National Geoscience Data Portal (NGDR) to foster
innovation in exploration. NGDR is a comprehensive online platform for accessing, sharing, and
analysing geospatial information across the nation.
However, India’s critical mineral exploration challenge is also one of data quality and usability,
not just data volume. While substantial geological surveys and mapping have been undertaken
by the Geological Survey of India (GSI), and is scientifically credible, much of this information
is not generated, classified, or disclosed in formats that enable investors to make bankable
project decisions.
Experts and industry highlight (Aggam Walia, 2024; A Vijay Kumar, 2019) that India’s reporting
still leans on legacy United Nations Framework Classification for Resources (UNFC) style
classifications and heterogeneous reporting standards, which do not consistently incorporate
economic viability, confidence levels, and competent-person sign‑off. These elements are
required by reporting codes such as Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting
Standards (CRIRSCO) or Joint Ore Reserve Committee (JORC) developed by Australia, or the
proposed Indian Mineral Industry Code (IMIC) (NACRI – Mining Engineers’ Association of India,
2022) developed by Indian experts.
This weak alignment with investor-oriented reporting frameworks reduces confidence in stated
resources and reserve estimates, leading private and foreign investors to discount or re‑do
state-generated geological work before committing capital.
4.4 POST-LEASE CLEARANCES
Before commencing mining operations, leaseholders must obtain four primary clearances:
Forest Clearance (FC), Environmental Clearance (EC), Wildlife Clearance (WLC), and Consent
to Operate (CTO). While EC and CTO are mandatory for all projects, FC and WLC apply only
when forest and wildlife are involved. These clearances are issued by authorities at various
governance levels and are regulated by the Ministry of Environment, Forests, and Climate
Change (MOEFCC). Often, these clearances face delays and backlogs despite a statutory 420-
day deadline. For instance, it took over five years for the Ghoraburhani-Sagasahi iron ore mine
in Sundargarh, Odisha to operationalise in 2021. Until 2023, it was the only virgin mine to have
operationalised in Odisha among the 48 blocks successfully auctioned out in 2016.
A study of Jharkhand, Karnataka, and Odisha found that the greatest delays occurred at the
Environmental Clearance (EC) and the Forest Clearance (FC) stages, with Odisha recording the
highest number of pending applications beyond the statutory period (Bansal, K. & Kapoor, I.,
2022). Streamlining these processes is essential to reduce investor uncertainty. It is as important
to have high and strictly enforced standards to issue clearance, as it is to ensure that application
processes are concluded within the prescribed timeline.
4.5 NATIONAL CRITICAL MINERAL MISSION
In January 2025, the Union Cabinet approved the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM)
with a total outlay of INR 34,300 crore to strengthen India’s critical mineral supply chain and Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 50
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
support exploration, processing and value-chain development. It has a direct expenditure of INR
16,300 crore from 2024–25 to 2030–31, including a budgetary support of INR 2,600 crore, and
aligned expenditure from PSUs at INR 18,000 crore (Ministry of Mines, 2025). The mission aims
to increase mineral sector efficiencies through integration and collaboration between various
government bodies and other stakeholders under one mission. Its focus is to increase domestic
production and recycling of minerals, along with facilitating the acquisition of critical mineral
assets abroad. The mission will facilitate trade, research, and technological advancement in
the mineral sector by developing strong financial incentives for greater participation from the
private sector.
The National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) is a necessary policy initiative that has the potential
to help shape the future of India’s critical mineral landscape. However, some challenges may
directly impact the outcomes of the mission. Vulnerabilities in global supply chains due to
restrictions on mineral exports have increased the barriers for highly import-dependent countries
to access mineral concentrates. New entrants also have to content with the dominance of
Chinese players in the global critical mineral supply chains, which is underpinned by their equity
stakes in operational mines and long-term offtake agreements with mine owners. Securing
India’s critical mineral supply chains would require the use of other policy tools, such as trade
and fiscal policies, to support the NCMM in achieving its desired objective.
4.6 PUBLIC SECTOR UNDERTAKINGS (PSUS) IN INDIA’S CRITICAL
MINERALS STRATEGY
PSUs continue to play an important role in India’s mineral sector, particularly in large-scale mining,
mineral processing, and overseas asset acquisition. In recent years, several PSUs have either
been assigned mandates or have independently initiated activities related to critical minerals,
reflecting the growing strategic importance of these materials for India’s energy transition and
industrial competitiveness.
Examples include Coal India Limited’s engagement in lithium exploration and overseas critical
mineral initiatives (Shivam Prakash, 2025) NMDC’s established technical and financial capacity
in large-scale mining and stated interest in diversification beyond iron ore (www.ETAuto.com);
and Indian Rare Earths Limited’s specialised capabilities in rare earth mining, separation, and
processing. Collectively, these entities represent significant public-sector capability relevant to
the exploration, mining, and processing of Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs).
Table 4.2: Recent PSU Activity on CETMs
PSU Administrative MinistryCETM-relevant activity
Coal India Ministry of Coal
Lithium exploration (Argentina), critical minerals JV
discussions, diversification mandate
NMDC Ministry of Steel
Geological exploration capability, iron-ore core, stated interest
in diversification and critical minerals
IREL Atomic Energy
REE mining, separation, processing; technical monopoly in
certain REE streams
KABIL Ministry of MinesOverseas asset acquisition mandate Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 51
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
At present, however, these capabilities are distributed across multiple administrative ministries
(see table 4.2), reflecting historical sectoral mandates rather than a unified critical minerals
strategy, resulting in institutional fragmentation and mandate misalignment across the critical
minerals ecosystem. While statutory responsibility for critical and strategic minerals increasingly
rests with the Ministry of Mines under the MMDR framework, operational capabilities relevant
to CETMs remain institutionally fragmented.
As CETMs transition from niche inputs to system-critical materials underpinning clean energy
technologies, advanced manufacturing, and industrial policy, this fragmentation creates
coordination and execution risks. This can materialise in practice through delayed decision-
making, duplication of exploratory or feasibility efforts across agencies, and weak accountability
for outcomes along the exploration-to-mining pipeline. Dispersed administrative control can
slow decision-making, dilute accountability for exploration and mining outcomes, and limit the
ability to deploy public sector capacity in a mission-oriented manner aligned with national
priorities.
The emerging policy challenge is therefore not the absence of public sector capability, but the
effective alignment and mobilisation of these capabilities within the mining policy ecosystem.
Addressing this challenge is central to strengthening domestic exploration and mining outcomes
for CETMs and ensuring that public sector assets contribute coherently to India’s long-term
critical minerals strategy.
4.7 INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIES
Recognising that several critical minerals essential for the energy transition either are not found
in India or are present only in limited or non-viable quantities, the Government of India has
taken proactive steps to secure overseas supplies through the following measures:
1. Established Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL): A joint venture public sector
company with the mandate to identify and acquire overseas critical mineral assets. It
has signed an agreement for lithium exploration and mining in Argentina (India Signs
Agreement for Lithium Exploration & Mining Project in Argentina).
2. Elimination of Import Duties on Critical Minerals: In the 2024–25 Union Budget, India
fully exempted 25 critical minerals from customs duties. This includes lithium, cobalt,
copper, and REEs, and several types of waste material containing these minerals (Law,
2025).
3. Deepened International Ties around Minerals: India has significantly strengthened
international partnerships to secure reliable and diversified sources of critical minerals.
It is an active participant in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and the broader
Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), both of which aim to build resilient, transparent,
and sustainable mineral supply chains. Bilateral collaborations have also advanced,
including the India-Australia Critical Minerals Investment Partnership targeting
joint investments in five lithium and cobalt projects (PIB, 2023), and a 2024 India-
U.S. Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) focused on cooperation in exploration,
processing, and recycling of key minerals (PIB, 2024). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 52
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
4. NCMM’s international initiatives:
Stockpile Programme: A joint initiative between central PSUs or with private companies
shall be institutionalised to develop a National Critical Mineral Stockpile Programme
to guard against supply disruptions and aid mineral supply for domestic utilisation.
To develop the National Critical Minerals Stockpile/Reserves, the government has
allocated INR 500 crore during the Mission period for this purpose.
Exploration: In addition, the Mission will spend INR 1,600 crore up to FY2031, to support
critical minerals exploration activities outside India. To encourage the participation of
Indian public (Central & State) and private sector companies in the acquisition of
assets abroad, the government has plans to incentivise mining and set up evacuation
infrastructure with financial outlay of INR 4,000 crore under the NCMM. In the private
sector, some Indian companies have invested in mines in Africa, signalling growing
interest in business-led global resource partnerships.
Critical Role of Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL)
KABIL has a central responsibility in India’s strategy to secure long-term, diversified sources of
CETMs and reduce reliance on a concentrated global supply chain. Its mandate places it at the
forefront of India’s international engagements on critical-minerals, making it a key instrument
for translating strategic objectives into tangible overseas partnerships and investments.
Currently, KABIL’s activities are concentrated in early-stage international engagements, including
memoranda of understanding and preliminary project assessments, and initial collaborations.
These foundation efforts are essential steps in building India’s presence in global critical mineral
markets, though the scale of ongoing activity is relatively limited compared with the breadth of
responsibilities it holds. Its current bandwidth, particularly in areas such as project development,
risk assessment, and operational follow-through, is still evolving.
KABIL can draw valuable lessons from the Indian overseas public sector enterprises in other
sectors, such as energy, which have developed strong in-house capabilities in geological
evaluation, project finance, host-government engagement, and asset operations across diverse
international contexts. Leveraging such experience can help KABIL progressively strengthen its
institutional depth, execution capacity and project development expertise.
This is essential for reducing import risk and translating India’s international critical minerals
strategy from intent to delivery.
4.8 MINERAL MARKETS
The MMDR Amendment Act, 2025, incorporates a provision to empower the Central Government
to promote the development of markets, including trading of minerals, their concentrates or
processed forms (including metals) through mineral exchanges. The Government could nominate
a authority to register and regulate mineral exchanges and prescribe rules to regulate various
aspects and activities of such exchanges and related matters.
Efficient trading exchanges will help both mining companies and end-users of minerals to
better determine and predict prices, aiding in budgeting and planning, stabilising markets,
and absorbing shocks and disruptions. Enhanced trade also stimulates storage, transport, and Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 53
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
logistics facilities. The mineral trading exchanges will also help determine fair market prices
based on supply and demand dynamics. This may further help state governments in realising
fair revenue share.
4.9 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
India has undertaken significant legislative and institutional reforms to enhance access to critical
minerals. The transition to auction-based mineral allocation and the creation of mechanisms
like District Mineral Foundation (DMF) and National Mineral Exploration Trust (NMET) have
increased transparency and funding for exploration. Internationally, India has adopted a proactive
approach through initiatives like Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL), tariff reductions, strategic
partnerships under Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and Minerals Security Partnership
(MSP). The launch of the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) in early 2025 further
consolidates these efforts under a unified institutional framework, with dedicated funding to
drive domestic exploration, recycling, and overseas asset acquisition.
Despite this progress, persistent operational and structural constraints continue to limit outcomes
on the ground. Actual mine operationalisation remains slow, and exploration continues to be
dominated by public agencies, with limited private participation due to unresolved commercial
risks. High royalty and tax burdens, coupled with procedural delays in post-lease clearances,
further deter investment. As a result, while the policy architecture reflects a strategic pivot
towards supply security and global integration, realising its full potential will require parallel
domestic reforms that streamline approvals, de-risk private exploration, and enable sustained,
long-term investment across the value chain.
Long and uncertain pathways from exploration to production
India’s current exploration and licensing framework relies heavily on auction-based allocation
even at early stages, where geological confidence is low and competitive interest is limited.
In such contexts, auction-based allocation can inadvertently delay exploration and mine
development, resulting in no realised economic value.
International experience across major mining jurisdictions demonstrates that early-stage
exploration for critical and strategic minerals is most effectively driven by specialised junior
explorers operating under predictable, low-friction licensing regimes. Competitive allocation
mechanisms are introduced only once geological confidence and project viability are established.
This staged approach, followed in Australia, Canada, Latin America and Africa, combines non-
auctioned access for early discovery with competitive allocation once resources are delineated
and commercial interest is demonstrably high (uncommon in critical minerals).
While auctions are effective instruments once geological confidence and competition are
established, undiscovered or undeveloped resources generate no royalty, tax or downstream
economic activity. Earlier discovery and production enable sustained public revenues over the
life of the resource through royalties, corporate taxation, GST from processing, employment
generation and reduced import dependence, often exceeding one-time auction receipts. From
a public-finance perspective, enabling discovery and development is therefore a prerequisite Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 54
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
for meaningful revenue realisation when it comes to critical minerals. Moreover, in the context
of strategic and critical minerals, the acute supply vulnerability, national security relevance, and
time-sensitive industrial policy objectives, the state may prioritise speed and certainty over
price discovery, subject to adequate safeguards.
Persistent geological uncertainty and exploration risk
Geological uncertainty remains elevated even in areas that have been surveyed, and that without
more credible, standardised and accessible data, reforms to licensing, auctions, or exploration
incentives alone will not substantially lower riskadjusted cost of capital for private and foreign
explorers. 5
ECOSYSTEM
REQUIREMENTS FOR
CIRCULAR ECONOMY
SOLUTIONS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 56
5
Ecosystem Requirements
for Circular Economy
Solutions
With the domestic primary supply of Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) remaining
limited and heavily import-dependent, India would be exposed to vulnerabilities arising from
geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, and price volatility. In this context, circular-economy
pathways offer an essential complementary supply stream by enabling the recovery, reuse, and
recycling of critical materials from end-of-life products and industrial waste.
Circular approaches not only enhance resource efficiency and reduce environmental impact but
also strengthen self-reliance and industrial resilience. By recovering CETMs from used batteries,
electronics, renewable energy infrastructure, and industrial by-products, India can significantly
supplement its primary supply and reduce overall material footprint.
This chapter presents an analytical assessment of the role circularity can play in supporting
India’s critical energy transition mineral needs. It estimates the volume of e-waste and other
secondary sources available for material recovery across different sectors and technologies.
Using a bottom-up forecasting approach based on sales data, asset lifecycles, and failure rate
modelling, the analysis projects e-waste generation through 2047. In addition, a Technology
Assessment Framework (TAF) evaluates recycling technologies against technical, economic,
and environmental criteria to identify the most viable pathways for scaling circular-economy
practices in India.
5.1 CURRENT LANDSCAPE OF CIRCULAR ECONOMY POLICIES
Governments worldwide are increasingly adopting circular economy strategies to address the
rising demand for critical minerals, with e-waste management emerging as a central focus. In
India, the regulatory framework for e-waste has evolved through successive versions of the
E-waste (Management) Rules, first introduced in 2011 and revised in 2016, 2018, and 2022.
The latest set of rules, effective from April 2023, further strengthens the Extended Producer
Responsibility (EPR) system by placing clear obligations on manufacturers, producers,
refurbishers, and recyclers for the end-of-life management of their products.
The National Policy on Electronics (NPE) 2019 outlines protocols for implementing EPR
requirements and promoting sustainable growth in the electronics sector. The Battery Waste
Management Rules (BWMR) 2022 establish a dedicated framework for the sustainable
management and recycling of battery waste, emphasising EPR and setting mandatory recycling
targets. Additionally, the Ministry of MSME, is implementing the Scheme for Promotion and
Investment in the Circular Economy for Micro and Small Enterprises (MSE-SPICE) to promote
circular economy initiatives including e-waste recycling—within the MSME ecosystem. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 57
Ecosystem Requirements for Circular Economy Solutions
Taken together, these policy measures aim to create a more structured, traceable, and
environmentally sustainable e-waste processing ecosystem in India.
5.2 ESTIMATING E-WASTE AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING
The study applies a five-step methodology (detailed in Annex B) to estimate e-waste available
for recycling and the associated recovery of Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) through
2047. It begins with compiling e-waste generation data from 10 states for the base year 2022,
followed by forecasting future waste volumes using historical sales trends, product-lifespan
profiles and adoption trajectories. The analysis then projects e-waste recoverable in 2047 under
both existing policy targets (60–80%) and an reform scenario with an 85% processing rate.
These projected waste streams are linked to recoverable material volumes by applying material-
intensity factors, covering both critical minerals (e.g., lithium, cobalt) and non-critical metals
(e.g., iron, aluminium). Finally, a 95% recovery efficiency is assumed to reflect high-performance
recycling systems.
Between FY 2017–18 and FY 2021–22, e-waste generation in India more than doubled—from
708,445 tonnes to 1,601,155 tonnes (PIB, 2023). While formal-sector processing increased from
9.8% to 32.9% over the same period, this expansion remains far below both policy targets
and the rate of growth in e-waste generation. The widening gap between generation and
formal recovery highlights persistent structural constraints in India’s collection and processing
ecosystem and underscores the urgency of strengthening both upstream aggregation systems
and downstream treatment capacity.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Cu Gr Ni Co Si Li Nd
Kilo Tonne
CEEW1 CEEW2 CEEW3 CEEW4
CEEW5 ITEW1ITEW2ITEW3
ITEW6ITEW15 Spent Magnets Solar Waste
EV LIB Batteries
Cumulative CRM Recoveries from E-Was te from 2023-47
Figure 5.1: Cumulative CETM Recoveries from E-Waste Between 2025 and 2047 in
Current Policy Scenario
*CEEW - Consumer Electrical and Electronics Waste, categories are explained in Annex Table B.1
Figure 5.1 presents cumulative recoverable Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) volumes
from the modelled e-waste streams between 2025 and 2047. Copper shows the largest recovery
potential, driven by its widespread presence across conventional consumer and industrial
electronics such as refrigerators, washing machines, laptops and printers. Graphite is the next- Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 58
Ecosystem Requirements for Circular Economy Solutions
largest recovery stream, with a vast majority of recoveries coming from end-of-life EV lithium-
ion batteries underscoring the strategic importance of battery recycling for domestic supply
security.
Other high-value battery minerals nickel, lithium and cobalt also exhibit substantial recoverable
volumes, principally sourced from EV battery waste. Silicon recoveries are moderate and
concentrated in end-of-life solar PV modules, highlighting the growing relevance of photovoltaic
waste management. Neodymium is recovered in smaller absolute quantities but is notable
because it is sourced almost exclusively from spent permanent magnets used in EV motors
and wind turbines.
Collectively, these trends indicate a structural shift in India’s secondary resource base:
recoverable Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) will increasingly originate from clean-
energy technology waste rather than from traditional electronics. This shift requires dedicated
collection channels, reverse-logistics systems, and specialised processing facilities tailored to
battery packs, PV modules and magnet-containing assemblies. Under the reform scenario
(immediate adoption of an 85% processing target), recoveries for the modelled minerals increase
by 13.25% (Annex I).
5.3 IDENTIFYING OPTIMAL E-WASTE RECYCLING TECHNOLOGY
To identify the most suitable recycling pathways for the modelled waste streams, the study
applied a Technology Assessment Framework (TAF) that evaluated three processing routes
namely pyrometallurgy, hydrometallurgy (acid leaching) and hydrometallurgy (bioleaching)
against technical, economic and environmental (TEE) criteria. A fuzzy-TOPSIS ranking method,
informed by expert judgement and sensitivity testing (details in Annex B) was used to assess
each technology’s closeness to an ideal solution.
Hydrometallurgy (bioleaching) emerged as the top-ranked technology on environmental
and economic criteria because of its low capital costs and minimal environmental impact.
Hydrometallurgy (acid-leaching) ranked highest on the technical criterion due to its maturity,
higher recovery efficiency, and wider applicability. Pyrometallurgy, although technically mature,
received the lowest rank across all TEE criteria, making it the least optimal technology for
e-waste recycling.
These findings highlight the potential of hydrometallurgical approaches, especially bioleaching,
as promising solutions for scaling environmentally sound and cost-effective e-waste recycling
in India.
5.4 EXTENT OF CETM DEMAND THAT CAN BE MET BY CIRCULARITY
Figure 5.2 below illustrates the share of India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral demand in
2025-2047 that can potentially be met through recycling e-waste and end-of-life products
generated during the same period. Cobalt shows the most promise in potential recovery from
recycling, its share rises from around 30% in 2030 to almost 100% by 2040. This is largely due
to the high volume of cobalt-rich batteries reaching their end of life with a simultaneous shift
toward lower-cobalt and cobalt-free alternatives in future, reducing overall cobalt demand in the
economy. Nickel follows a similar but more gradual trajectory, due to its continued requirement
in various technologies. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 59
Ecosystem Requirements for Circular Economy Solutions
Graphite, copper, and lithium all show steady increases, reaching around 15-25% by 2047,
reflecting growing recycling volumes as battery and electronics waste accumulates. In contrast,
recycling contributes to only a fraction of the new demand for silicon and neodymium.
0
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2047
Copper (Cu)Nickel (Ni)Lithium (Li)
GraphiteCobalt (Co)Silicon (Si)
Neodymium (Nd)
Figure 5.2: Share of CETM Demand fulfilled by Recycled Minerals Between 2025 and 2047
Current Policy Scenario
As deployment of low-carbon technologies picks up at mid-century, we see the limited ability
of recycling to meet demand. These trends show that recycling can partly succeed in meeting
the needs for select minerals. For most Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs), it may
supplement but will not replace primary supply, highlighting the need for parallel investments
in mining, processing, waste import, and material efficiency strategies.
5.5 ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF MINERALS
While consumer electronics remain a key focus for mineral recovery, there is significant
untapped potential in alternate sources, particularly manufacturing waste from sectors such as
automotive, battery production, renewable energy, and mining tailing. Industrial scrap, spent
catalysts, and by-products like slag and sludge often contain high concentrations of Critical
Raw Materials (CRMs) such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earth elements, and precious metals.
These sources are typically more centralised and compositionally consistent than post-consumer
waste, making them more accessible and cost-effective for recovery. Tapping into these streams
can reduce dependence on primary mining, enhance resource security, and contribute to India’s
clean energy and circular economy goals.
To unlock this potential, policies must incentivise industries to accurately report, segregate, and
direct valuable manufacturing waste into formal recycling systems. With the right regulatory and
infrastructural support, India can not only strengthen its domestic supply chains for strategic
minerals but also enhance sustainable resource recovery. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 60
Ecosystem Requirements for Circular Economy Solutions
5.6 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
Despite several systemic limitations, e-waste and battery recycling show considerable potential,
as yet untapped, to contribute to India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) security.
Notably, recycling can only partially meet the demand for battery-related minerals. For many
other CETMs such as silicon and rare earths like neodymium, the contribution remains marginal.
While scaling up formal recycling systems can help close material loops for select minerals, to
realise the full potential of circular economy pathways in India, it must be complemented by i)
parallel efforts to improve collection efficiency; ii) investment in advanced recovery technologies;
and iii) strengthened regulatory enforcement.
In conclusion, the effectiveness of circular economy as a source must also be viewed through
the lens of India’s manufacturing trajectory. Even if Indian manufacturers deploy only 20–30%
of the low-carbon technologies, the projected levels of material recovery may be adequate to
meet much of the domestic demand for key battery minerals. However, if India’s manufacturing
footprint expands significantly, the recycling alone will not suffice. In such a case, the country
would need to increase primary mineral procurement and actively explore the import of high-
value end-of-life products and battery scrap from other regions as an additional feedstock. 6
R&D REQUIREMENTS
FOR CRITICAL MINERAL
PROCESSING AND
RECYCLING Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 62
6
R&D Requirements for
Critical Mineral Processing
and Recycling
Research and Development (R&D) is a cornerstone of India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral
(CETM) strategy. As global demand for these minerals surge, India must develop the capacity
to not only secure raw materials but also process, refine, and recycle them domestically. At
present, much of the global value in Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) lies not in the
extraction stage, but in the downstream processing and technology-intensive stages. These
are dominated by a handful of countries, exposing India to significant supply and pricing risks.
Bridging this gap demands a robust, mission-oriented R&D agenda that will play a critical role
in:
1. Improving resource efficiency, enabling extraction from low-grade or unconventional
ores.
2. Reducing environmental impact by promoting cleaner, less energy-intensive processes.
3. Unlocking value from secondary sources, through advanced recycling and recovery
technologies.
This chapter reviews India’s current capabilities in critical mineral processing and recycling,
examines the existing policy support for CETM related R&D, and provides an overview of global
research trends that could inform the direction of future domestic efforts.
6.1 TECHNOLOGIES FOR MINERAL PROCESSING AND RECYCLING
India’s domestic R&D ecosystem led by institutions such as Council of Scientific and Industrial
Research (CSIR) laboratories, Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), and select private firms has
made notable strides in developing processing and recycling technologies for several CETMs.
However, the maturity of these technologies varies significantly across the mineral spectrum.
The following section presents a comparative analysis using data compiled for 18 CETMs (Table
6.1) with details of the data shared in Annex H.
Table 6.1: Summary of Minerals Analysed for Processing and
Recycling Technology and R&D Readiness
Type of UseMinerals Mapped# of Minerals
Battery MaterialsLi, Co, Ni, V, Graphite5
Rare Earths & MagneticsNd, Pr, Tb, Y, Sc5
Electronics/SemiconductorsGa, Ge, In, Te, Se5
Alloying & StructuralTi, Nb, Ta3 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 63
R&D Requirements for Critical Mineral Processing and Recycling
Based on the comparative analysis, the following classification emerges:
Mature Process
In various Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs), India has developed technological
capabilities assessed to be at par with international best practices, with successful pilot-scale
demonstrations or commercial operations already established.
Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, vanadium, tungsten, and titanium
11
represent clear opportunities
for industrial scaling, commercialisation support, and policy incentives, including PLI schemes.
Similarly, in recycling, India has developed mature technologies with strong potential to support
a domestic circular economy for critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, vanadium,
tungsten, and titanium) particularly in sectors such as batteries, motors, and e-waste recycling.
Pilot/Partial Process
At the same time, several processes remain at a pilot or pre-commercial stage, often limited
to beneficiation or intermediate purification, lacking the capability to produce high-purity end-
products. This is true for primary processing (neodymium, praseodymium, titanium-metal,
niobium, tantalum, germanium, tellurium, yttrium, and selenium) and recycling (indium, niobium,
tantalum, and gallium), where promising lab-scale innovations require scale-up, validation, and
industrial integration to match global benchmarks. These technologies are ideal candidates for
translational R&D support through public–private consortia, as well as targeted international
collaborations. Investment in such initiatives would help bridge the gap between innovation
and deployment.
Finally, there are critical minerals for which India currently lacks any meaningful domestic
processing capability—whether at the research, pilot, or commercial scale (terbium, gallium,
indium, and scandium). This is also true for certain recyclable feedstocks (germanium, scandium,
tellurium, and selenium), where the absence of suitable processes, infrastructure, or access
to proprietary technologies results in complete import dependence. These require urgent
attention from India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral ecosystem through mission-mode R&D
programmes, technology access agreements, or global partnerships, particularly for by-product
recovery and high-purity separation.
6.2 R&D-SUPPORTIVE POLICIES IN PROCESSING AND RECYCLING
OF CRITICAL MINERALS
Under its Science and Technology (S&T) Programme, the Ministry of Mines provides funding
to academic institutions, universities, national institutes, and R&D organisations recognised by
the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, startups, and MSMEs to implement R&D
projects. This programme aims to promote applied research in geosciences, mineral exploration,
mining, mineral processing, optimum utilisation, and conservation of mineral resources for
national benefit.
In 2023, the programme’s scope was expanded with the introduction of the “Promotion of
Research and Innovation in Startups and MSMEs in Mining, Mineral Processing, Metallurgy and
11 Ti processes currently terminate at TiO₂ concentrate; full metal-level capabilities are absent. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 64
R&D Requirements for Critical Mineral Processing and Recycling
Recycling Sector” (S&T-PRISM). The S&T Programme now has two key components:
1. R&D: Funds are allocated to academic institutions, universities, national institutes, and
R&D institutions recognised by the DSIR for undertaking R&D projects.
2. S&T-PRISM: Funds are allocated to ensure timely availability of seed support to
deserving startups.
A total of 22 projects related to critical minerals from academic institutions, universities, national
institutes, and R&D institutions have been sanctioned under the R&D component during 2024-
25. The same year, six projects from startups and MSMEs have been sanctioned under the S&T-
PRISM component, totalling 28 sanctioned critical mineral-related projects.
The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) plays a pivotal role in advancing
cost-effective technological solutions, skill development, and capacity building to manage
e-waste across the country. As part of its initiatives, MeitY has established India’s first Centre
of Excellence (CoE) for e-waste management at C-MET, Hyderabad.
This CoE serves as a hub for providing affordable recycling technologies, fostering start-up
creation, offering incubation facilities, and conducting skill development programmes. The
recycling technologies developed at this centre cater to:
1. Printed Circuit Board
2. Lithium-ion Battery
3. Rare Earth Permanent Magnets
4. Fluorescent Lamp Phosphors
5. PV Solar Cells
The CoE has successfully transferred these advanced technologies to approximately 30
industries, promoting sustainable e-waste management and supporting the country’s circular
economy goals.
These efforts aim to bridge the gap between innovation and commercialisation and are integral
to building a self-reliant, resilient supply chain for critical minerals essential to India’s clean
energy future.
6.3 GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MINERAL PROCESSING AND
RECYCLING
Traditional mineral processing has largely focused on optimising established technologies
rather than inventing new ones. Processing costs, technological requirements, and operational
complexity are strongly influenced by feedstock characteristics, particularly ore grade and
impurity levels. Lower-grade ores demand more intensive treatment, while ore composition
determines the choice of metallurgical routes. Recycling presents comparable complexities as
the type, quality, and composition of end-of-life materials shape the design and efficiency of
recovery processes.
Most current operations rely on proven pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical techniques,
where precise control of temperature, pressure, and chemical conditions is critical for high
recovery and process stability. Although incremental improvements to these methods have Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 65
R&D Requirements for Critical Mineral Processing and Recycling
delivered gains in efficiency and cost performance, evolving supply-chain dynamics and
sustainability constraints are reshaping global R&D priorities. Conventional processes are often
energy-intensive, generate substantial emissions, have large chemical footprints, and offer limited
flexibility in handling low-grade or complex feedstocks. These methods also face challenges in
economically recovering trace elements and in scaling for decentralised applications, which are
increasingly critical as Critical Energy Transition Mineral supply chains become more complex
and globally dispersed.
In response, global R&D is pivoting toward next-generation processing and recycling technologies
that offer greater efficiency, selectivity, and sustainability. Direct lithium extraction, for instance,
enables targeted recovery from low-concentration brines and clays without energy-intensive
evaporation (Amir Razmjou, 2024). In recycling, direct recycling of lithium-ion batteries retains
material structure, reducing the number of processing steps, while closed-loop battery recycling
aims to minimise both waste and chemical inputs (Neumann et al., 2022).
Renewables-powered electrometallurgical and solvent-free extraction processes are also being
explored globally to significantly cut down on reagent use, carbon and energy intensity.
Importantly, advanced electrowinning and electrorefining techniques are being developed to
enable the recovery of high-purity metals from complex, low-concentration solutions, such as
those found in urban mining and recycling of electronics and batteries. These methods offer
precise control over metal purity and are more adaptable to variable feedstocks (Rai et al.,
2021). Complementing this, ion-selective membrane technologies are emerging as powerful
tools for targeted metal separation, allowing for the efficient recovery of specific elements while
reducing cross-contamination and chemical waste (Wang et al., 2023).
Together, these innovations present a strategic opportunity for India to leapfrog legacy
infrastructure, build decentralised and low-footprint processing systems, and align its CETM
roadmap with global frontiers in sustainable materials recovery.
6.4 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
India has made measurable progress in developing R&D capabilities for Critical Energy
Transition Mineral (CETM) processing and recycling, particularly for materials such as lithium,
cobalt, nickel, and graphite. However, the maturity of technologies varies significantly across
the CETM spectrum. While several processes are at par with global standards and ready for
industrial scaling, others remain in the pilot stage or are entirely absent, especially for niche
elements such as scandium, tellurium, and gallium used in high-tech products. India’s recycling
capabilities, though promising, also show uneven readiness across different materials. As
global innovation shifts toward cleaner, modular, and more selective technologies, India’s R&D
agenda must evolve accordingly. Addressing the identified gaps through targeted investments,
translational infrastructure, and international collaboration will be critical to achieving self-
reliance and sustainability in CETM supply chains. 7
POLICY SUGGESTIONS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 68
7
Policy
Suggestions
This chapter translates the strategic insights from the preceding chapters into a focused set
of policy actions to strengthen India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral ecosystem. A coherent
critical minerals strategy requires clarity on the principles that shape these policy choices.
These guiding principles translate India’s critical mineral ecosystem challenges into a structured
logic for action. They clarify the direction of reform, guide sequencing across different supply
pathways and time horizons, and surface the cross-cutting enablers required for a resilient
CETM ecosystem. Together, they provide the organising logic for the intervention pillars that
follow and ensure that suggestions remain anchored in system-wide strategic priorities.
7.1 GUIDING PRINCIPLES FOR POLICY ACTION
Principle 1: Enable private sector leadership across the value chain
Public institutions will continue to play a catalytic and coordinating role, but scaling CETM
supply chains ultimately depends on sustained private investment, operational leadership, and
technology adoption. Policy frameworks should therefore prioritise predictability in regulation,
streamlined approvals, risk-sharing mechanisms, and fiscal alignment that enable competitive
private participation across exploration, refining, recycling and international sourcing.
Principle 2: Align interventions with differentiated timelines across supply
pathways
Primary mining, secondary recovery, refining, and overseas sourcing operate on fundamentally
different timelines and risk profiles. Policy design must recognise these differences by
accelerating near-term capacity creation where feasible (such as recycling and processing),
while sustaining long-term horizon support for exploration and mine development. Sequencing
interventions in line with these structural timelines is essential to avoid policy misalignment and
investor uncertainty.
Principle 3: Diversify risk through strategic and mutually beneficial
international partnerships
Given high concentration in global CETM supply chains, India must actively diversify access
through partnerships that go beyond transactional imports. International engagement should
prioritise co-investment, long-term offtake, technology collaboration and “value-chain stack” Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 69
Policy Suggestions
arrangements that embed India within resilient, shared supply networks, rather than isolated or
opportunistic sourcing relationships.
Principle 4: Treat environmental and social performance as a core supply-
security requirement
Weak environmental and social safeguards increase project risk, undermine social licence to
operate, and can disrupt supply chains through litigation, delays, and community opposition.
Fast-tracking approvals should therefore not dilute standards. Policy approaches should instead
reinforce robust standards, safeguards, traceability, transparency, and independent verification
as essential enablers of long-term supply security and global market access.
Principle 5: Prioritise mission-oriented innovation and leap-frog
technologies
India should avoid locking itself into late-stage replication of existing technologies and processes.
Innovation policy should instead prioritise mission-driven R&D, structured pilot-to-commercial
pathways, and next-generation technologies that reduce cost, environmental footprint, and
strategic dependence. This approach positions India to build competitive capability aligned with
future technology transitions, rather than remaining dependent on incumbent process routes.
Principle 6: Strengthen institutional capacity, data systems, and centre-
state coordination
Effective critical minerals governance depends on strong institutions, reliable data, and
coordinated decision-making across various levels of government. Policies should be guided
by integrated mineral flow data, shared analytical baselines, and clearly defined centre-state
roles. Strengthening these institutional foundations is essential to ensure that demand signals,
supply-side interventions, and industrial development remain aligned and adaptive over time.
The suggestions that follows operationalises these principles into a set of policy actions. They
are organised into five thematic pillars and can be read as a coherent package based on:
i. Domestic mining measures that accelerate discovery-to-production without eroding
legitimacy
ii. Technology actions that close readiness and scale-up gaps
iii. International strategies to manage concentration and market risk
iv. Interventions to unlock midstream and circularity capacity
v. Governance measures that institutionalise strategy, risk assessment, calibration, and
delivery accountability.
Each pillar specifies discrete actions and their core implementation parameters, while avoiding
duplication of existing schemes or mandates. The pillars are intended to function as a coherent
package, with each addressing a distinct constraint and reinforcing the others through
sequencing rather than overlap. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 70
Policy Suggestions
7.2 SUGGESTIONS
Pillar-1: Strengthen domestic exploration and mining
Domestic exploration and mining remain necessary components of India’s Critical Energy
Transition Mineral supply base, notwithstanding long development timelines and geological
uncertainty. This pillar focuses on modernising exploration access, improving the credibility
and usability of geological information, aligning public sector capabilities, and strengthening
permitting coordination while preserving environmental and social accountability.
a. Rebalance exploration access and licensing pathways
Conditional First-Come, First-Served (FCFS) access may be introduced for early-stage exploration
of priority critical minerals. It should also be linked to mandatory data disclosure, time-bound
milestones, and rights-based progression to mining leases upon successful discovery. Further,
clear thresholds should be defined for the transition from FCFS to auction after attaining a
sector-level maturity.
b. Make private-sector participation the default for early-stage exploration
Adopt private-sector award as the default pathway for exploration licences for critical minerals,
using conditional First-Come, First-Served (FCFS) mechanisms (preferred over auction)
appropriate to geological uncertainty and till market matures.
c. Improve geological knowledge and data credibility
Mandate Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards (CRIRSCO)-aligned
reporting through Indian Mineral Industry Code (IMIC) and embed decision-grade geological
disclosure into statutory and regulatory processes, including licence conversion and development
approvals.
d. Align public sector mining capabilities with critical minerals priorities
Review and realign the mandates, asset deployment, investment priorities, and administrative
control of public sector mining and processing enterprises (e.g., National Mineral Development
Corporation, Coal India, Indian Rare Earths Limited) to ensure consistency with national critical
minerals objectives.
e. Preserve environmental and social accountability in project approvals
Retain public consultation as a targeted risk-screening mechanism, restrict expedited approvals
to compliant proponents, and mandate independent audits for fast-tracked projects.
f. Improve permitting coordination for critical mineral projects through a
dedicated coordination committee
Coordinated permitting guidance for Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) projects should be
issued to improve sequencing and enable parallel processing across approvals, with establishing
single-point coordination mechanisms without altering statutory decision-making authority. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 71
Policy Suggestions
A Chief Secretary-chaired coordination committee may be constituted to resolve inter-
departmental bottlenecks and monitor applications through digital permitting dashboards
tracking status, dependencies and decision timelines.
Pillar-2: Build domestic innovation and technology capability for critical
raw materials
India’s long-term critical raw materials supply resilience depends on the ability to develop, adapt,
and deploy processing, separation, refining, and recycling technologies domestically. This pillar
focuses on organising R&D around deployment outcomes, strengthening pilot-to-commercial
pathways, and structuring international technology engagement to support domestic absorption
rather than persistent dependence.
a. Establish a mission-oriented R&D framework for critical raw materials
A mission-oriented R&D framework should be established, focusing on priority minerals,
materials, precursors, and processing technologies identified through national risk assessments.
Funding can be shifted from fragmented, project-based approach toward outcome-oriented
missions linked to deployment needs in refining, recycling, and associated manufacturing.
b. Create pilot-to-commercialisation pathways for priority technologies
Shared pilot and demonstration infrastructure are needed for priority processing, refining, and
recycling technologies, with transparent access rules for start-ups, MSMEs, and private firms.
VGF and other risk-sharing instruments should be provided for first-of-a-kind deployments,
including concessional finance, guarantees, and time-bound performance-linked support tied
to recovery, purity, and environmental benchmarks.
c. Enable structured international technology co-development and absorption
Structure bilateral and plurilateral technology co-development arrangements or programmes
covering joint pilots, shared IP generation, and researcher mobility in priority Critical Raw Material
(CRM) technologies. Domestic capability-building requirements (such as local engineering
development, workforce training, and phased localisation) can be embedded within international
technology partnerships and incentive frameworks.
Public support should prioritise technologies with demonstrable pathways to domestic
absorption and scale, avoiding open-ended dependence on licensed or proprietary processes.
Pillar-3: Diversify international supply sources and reduce import risk
India’s dependence on a narrow set of countries and firms for critical minerals exposes clean-
energy and manufacturing value chains to geopolitical and market risks. This pillar reduces
vulnerability through risk-differentiated partnerships, shared value-chain arrangements and
coordinated overseas facilitation.
a. Diversify overseas mineral access through risk-differentiated partnerships
Critical minerals need to be classified by concentration and geopolitical exposure, and their risk
profile can be translated into differentiated engagement strategies. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 72
Policy Suggestions
b. Embed India in resilient global value-chain arrangements
Minerals suitable for value-chain stack partnerships, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth
materials, should be identified for pilot shared processing and refining hubs through bilateral
and plurilateral frameworks.
c. De-risk overseas access through aggregation and facilitation
Project preparation support should be established, alongside aggregate demand for equity and
offtake, and coordinate overseas engagement through a single-window facilitation platform.
d. Strengthen KABIL for overseas Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM)
execution
KABIL’s execution capacity requires strengthening through calibrated capitalisation, targeted
lateral recruitment in international mining and project finance, and prioritised overseas CETM
project pipeline. For this, partnerships with overseas-facing PSUs and public financial institutions
can leverage their due diligence, negotiation, and asset operation expertise while retaining
KABIL’s focused CETM mandate.
e. Reduce market risk through improved price discovery and hedging
Facilitate access to relevant global mineral exchanges and develop India-linked instruments
where required, integrating market signals into sourcing and stockpiling decisions.
Pillar-4: Scale circularity and refining
India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) supply constraints are concentrated in
midstream refining and recycling capacity rather than in downstream manufacturing alone.
This pillar operationalises the midstream and circularity constraints identified in Chapter 5 by
focusing on economic viability, feedstock access, and technology availability for refining and
advanced recycling, while maintaining environmental and social compliance.
a. Make refining and advanced recycling economically viable
A coordinated package of incentives combining capital support, output-linked incentives, and tax
rationalisation is required for Critical Energy Transition Mineral refining and advanced recycling
facilities. First-of-a-kind and scale-up projects should be prioritised to produce high-purity
materials relevant to downstream manufacturing. National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM)-
linked processing cluster support can also be extended to advanced recycling hubs, enabling
land access, shared infrastructure, and anchor-firm-led cluster models. Verification of Extended
Producer Responsibility (EPR) compliance and third-party audits need to be strengthened to
ensure that fiscal and financial incentives accrue only to authorised and compliant refining and
recycling operators.
b. Secure access to critical refining and recycling technologies
Facilitate access to priority refining and recycling technologies through bilateral and multilateral
cooperation frameworks, with clearly defined capability-building requirements linked to domestic
absorption and operation. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 73
Policy Suggestions
c. Unlock reliable secondary feedstock for Critical Energy Transition Mineral
(CETMs)
Waste-management and import regulations need amendment to permit authorised refining and
recycling entities to import traceable, high-value CETM-bearing scrap and end-of-life products
under strict environmental standards. Further, protocols can be issued for authorised access
to mine tailings and legacy waste for CETM recovery. For this, one-time national potential
assessment can be undertaken for tailings relevant to critical minerals.
Pillar-5: Institutional architecture for national critical raw materials
governance
The actions in this section establish enabling conditions for Pillars 1-4. They are intended to
support coherent, whole-of-government implementation rather than operate as a standalone
thematic pillar.
The preceding synthesis highlights that India’s critical minerals challenge increasingly reflects
system-level governance gaps rather than deficiencies in individual policy instruments. As the
scope of concern expands from Critical Energy Transition Minerals to a broader set defined
better as Critical Raw Materials, including specific grades of outputs, intermediate materials,
processing reagents, specialised equipment and enabling technologies, the need for durable,
cross-cutting governance functions becomes more pronounced.
While execution responsibility is appropriately distributed across line ministries and mission-
mode programmes such as National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM), effective Critical Raw
Material governance requires institutional functions that operate across mandates and time
horizons. In particular, the synthesis identifies four persistent gaps: fragmented scope-setting,
reactive risk assessment, limited calibration of policy and market instruments, and the absence
of differentiated stewardship for system-critical projects.
The Institutional Architecture set out below is designed to address these gaps by separating
strategy from execution, strengthening system-level intelligence and prioritisation, and enabling
timely escalation and coordination, without duplicating existing authorities or displacing line-
ministry accountability.
a. Establish a National Critical Raw Material (CRM) analytical unit for strategy
and system-level risk assessment: Constitute a CRM analytical unit responsible
for:
i. Setting strategic scope across CRMs beyond a mineral-only or mining-centric lens;
ii. Maintaining the Net Zero Technology and Materials Roadmap as a living, regularly
updated framework. This report provides the initial consolidated roadmap and analytical
foundation, which should be periodically updated as technologies, deployment
pathways, and material intensity data evolve.
iii. Undertaking periodic, system-level risk assessments spanning domestic and international
supply, primary and secondary sources, and enabling inputs such as technologies and
equipment; and
iv. Developing and periodically updating a National Critical Raw Materials Strategy. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 74
Policy Suggestions
Design Safeguard: The analytical unit should not execute programmes, own budgets, coordinate
approvals, or assume line-ministry functions. Its role is limited to strategy, prioritisation, risk
assessment, and structured escalation.
b. Develop a National Critical Raw Materials Strategy on a recurring basis. The
Strategy should:
i. Consolidate demand signals (including outputs from the Net Zero Technology &
Materials Roadmap);
ii. Integrate supply-risk assessments across minerals, materials, and enabling technologies;
Risk & Early-Warning Assessment to include indicators such as import concentration,
processing bottlenecks, technology chokepoints, geopolitical exposure and
environmental or social risk flags.
iii. Identify priority raw materials, value chains, and strategic CRM projects; and
iv. Define sequencing, calibration, and escalation logic across ministries and states.
Scope Clarity: The strategy should guide missions and policies, not replace them. It should
remain adaptive, analytical, and strategic rather than evolving into a programme or scheme.
c. Enable strategic project designation, stewardship, and delivery coordination:
Constitute an Inter-Ministerial Committee (IMC) to:
i. Develop coordinated guidance to periodically review the performance of existing
policy and market instruments, such as stockpiling frameworks, offtake arrangements,
incentive structures, and approval timelines against strategic objectives and evolving
risk profiles. The IMC will also review the role played by the analytical unit and suggest
improvements.
ii. IMC may co-opt state government units wherever applicable to resolve inter-
departmental bottlenecks and monitor progress, supported by digital permitting
dashboards tracking application status, dependencies, and decision timelines.
iii. Identify a limited set of strategic critical raw materials projects across mining, processing,
recycling, technology demonstration, and overseas sourcing whose outcomes have
system-wide implications for supply security, market confidence, or downstream
industrial viability.
iv. Apply differentiated treatment to designated strategic projects, including priority
handling, coordinated sequencing of approvals, targeted access to incentives and
finance, and active inter-agency bottleneck resolution, without diluting statutory
environmental or social safeguards. ANNEXURES Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 76
Annexures
Annex A LIST OF CRITICAL MINERALS AND CETM
Table A.1: List of Critical Minerals and CETM
No.
Mineral /
Element
Group
CETM
(WG4)
MMDR
Part D
No.
Mineral /
Element
Group
CETsM
(WG4)
MMDR
Part D
1Cadmium Element 22.1Cerium REE (Light)
2Cobalt Element 22.2Lanthanum REE (Light)
3Gallium Element 22.3Neodymium REE (Light)
4Graphite Element 22.4PraseodymiumREE (Light)
5Indium Element 22.5Europium REE (Light)
6Lithium Element 22.6Promethium REE (Light)
7Molybdenum Element 22.7Samarium REE (Light)
8Nickel Element 22.8Dysprosium REE (Heavy)
9Niobium Element 22.9Gadolinium REE (Heavy)
10Selenium Element 22.10Terbium REE (Heavy)
11Tellurium Element 22.11Yttrium
REE-like
(Heavy)
12Tin Element 22.12Erbium REE (Heavy)
13Titanium Element 22.13Holmium REE (Heavy)
14Tungsten Element 22.14Lutetium REE (Heavy)
15Vanadium Element 22.15Thulium REE (Heavy)
16Zirconium Element 22.16Ytterbium REE (Heavy)
17Copper Element 22.17Scandium
REE-like
(Light)
18Germanium Element 23Phosphates Element
19Silicon Element 24Beryllium Element
20Strontium Element 25
Potash
(Glauconite)
Element
21.1Iridium PGE 26Rhenium Element
21.2Platinum PGE 27Tantalum Element
21.3Osmium PGE 28Antimony Element
21.4Palladium PGE 29Bismuth Element
21.5Rhodium PGE 30Hafnium Element
21.6Ruthenium PGE Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 77
Annexures
Annex B METHODOLOGIES IN DETAIL
CETM demand assessment for Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen
1. Technology Variants and Market Share Projections: Technology variants are specific
subtypes or configurations within a broader low-carbon technology category. For
example, EV batteries include multiple battery chemistries such as LFP, Lithium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC532, NMC811), and the newly commercialised Sodium
Ion battery have been considered among others. The future market shares of these
technology variants were projected primarily from existing studies and expert literature.
Given the limited availability of precise market share data, especially for emerging
technologies, a heuristic approach was adopted. Market shares were projected
based on the Technology Readiness Level (TRL), efficiency, and End-of-Life (EOL)
characteristics of each technology variant.
Variants with high maturity levels (TRL 8–9) are expected to experience gradual
reductions in market share due to competition from emerging technologies.
Conversely, variants with less mature technology (TRL 4–7) are expected to gain share
as technological advancements improve their commercial viability. Annex D lists the
market share of all technology variants considered in this study. For EOL assumptions,
clean energy technologies that retire at least 20 years after their commercialisation
has been included.
2. Estimating Mineral Intensity: Mineral intensities for each technology variant were
sourced from comprehensive industry studies and relevant literature. For renewable
power-generation technologies like Solar PV, CSP, and wind, mineral intensity is
expressed in tonnes per gigawatt (t/GW), consistent with their rated power-generating
capacities. For BESS, mineral intensity is expressed in tonnes per gigawatt hour (t/
GWh) aligning with their energy storage capacities. Electrolyser capacities were
estimated using projected Green Hydrogen production data provided by NITI Aayog,
coupled with efficiency data for different electrolyser variants, expressed in t/GW.
3. Calculating Cumulative Embedded Mineral Demand: The cumulative mineral demand
for each technology variant was calculated by combining the annual projected
installed capacity required of each low-carbon technology, evolving market shares of
the technology variants, and mineral intensities of each variant.
The following equation explains the cumulative embedded mineral content for a
specific mineral in a technology variant:
()()
() ()
=
= ××
∑
t
ym,vv,y m,v
y 2025
C t IS M
C
(m,v)
(t) = Cumulative embedded mineral content of mineral ?????? in technology variant
?????? by end year ?????? .
?????? = one of the 30 critical minerals
I
Y
= Total annual installations (e.g., MW capacity, number of EVs, etc.) of the
low-carbon technology category (e.g., Solar PV, Wind, etc.) in year ??????. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 78
Annexures
?????? = start year for annual critical mineral calculation beginning with 2025, ending in
year ?????? (2030, 2047 and 2070)
S
(v.y)
= Market share (%) (0–1) of the specific technology variant ?????? within the low-
carbon technology category in year ??????.
m
(m.v)
= Embedded mineral intensity (e.g., kg mineral per MW installed or per unit) of
mineral ?????? in technology variant ??????.
Key assumptions:
Mineral intensity per technology variant remains constant over time.
Variations in cumulative mineral content are driven entirely by:
Annual installations of technology category (changing over time as energy demand
increases)
Market share variation of the technology variant (changing over time as more
efficient technology variants mature and commercialise)
Methodology for recovery of CETM from E-waste
This study estimates the volume of e-waste available for recycling and the potential recovery of
CETMs based on data from the state annual reports. Data on e-waste generation was collected
from 10 states with 2022 as the base year. In instances where 2022 data was unavailable, data from
adjacent years was used. The types of e-waste analysed include Consumer Electrical and Electronics
Waste (CEEW) and Information Technology and Telecommunication Equipment Waste (ITEW).₄ ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₂₆₃ ₄₂₂₆₃ ₄₂₂₆₃ ₄₂₂₆₃ ₄₂₆₃fi ₄₂₆₃fi ₄₂₆₃fifl ₄₂₆₃fifl ₄₂₆₃fi ₄₂₆₃fi ₄₂₆₃fi
Figure A.1: E-waste Generated (ktpa) by Waste Types across India for the Year 2021-22 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 79
Annexures
Figure A.1 presents the quantity of e-waste generated in kilo tonnes per annum (ktpa) across different
categories in 2022. The e-waste forecasting methodology combined historical sales data (2011–
2023), product lifespan assumptions, and second-life usage to estimate future e-waste volumes. For
conventional electronics, the TNPCB (TNPCB, 2021) method using composite growth indices was
applied (Annex B). E-waste generation was modelled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution
12
to estimate end-of-life timelines.
Table B.1: E-waste Categories Analysed
E-waste categories
CEEW1Television Sets
CEEW2Refrigerator
CEEW3Washing Machine
CEEW4Air-Conditioners Excluding Centralized Air Conditioning Plants
CEEW5Fluorescent and other Mercury containing Lamps
ITEW1Centralized Data Processing: Mainframe
ITEW2Personal Computing: Personal Computers
ITEW3Personal Computing: Laptop Computers
ITEW4Personal Computing: Notebook Computers
ITEW6Printers including Cartridges
ITEW15Cellular Telephones: Feature Phones
Lithium-ion batteries
Solar PV panels
Spent Magnets
After e-waste forecasting, three steps were undertaken to estimate the recoverable material,
particularly CETMs:
1. Estimating E-waste processed: Two distinct scenarios were modelled to reflect varying
levels of policy ambition and infrastructure development; Current Policy Scenario:
Aligns with the official processing targets set forth in India’s policies for different
e-waste categories and EV batteries. Reform Scenario (RS): Assumes enhanced efforts
and infrastructure, aiming for an 85% processing rate for consumer durables. For spent
magnets, processing rates were 25% in BS and 40% in AS, and for solar PV panel
processing, rates were 70% in BS scenario and 90% in AS.
12 The Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution commonly used in probability theory and statistics.
It’s versatile model and can be used for a wide range of scenarios, especially related to time-to-failure or time
between events. This makes it a valuable tool for analysing reliability data, predicting failures, and understanding the
life characteristics of products or systems. It is characterised by two parameters: shape parameter (β): determines
the distribution’s form or the rate at which failures occur over time, and scale parameter (η): represents the lifespan,
influencing the spread of the data. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 80
Annexures
Table B.2: E-waste processed projections
Year Current Policy Scenario Reform Scenario
2023-202460% 85%
2024-202560% 85%
2025-202670%85%
2026-202770%85%
2027-202880%85%
2028-202980%85%
2029 onwards80%85%
2. Calculating material content in processed waste: To estimate the total material
content recoverable from processed waste, the e-waste processed was multiplied by
material intensities values for each product type. Materials extracted from e-waste
were categorised into two categories:
Critical Energy Transition Minerals Non-Critical Materials
Cobalt, Copper, Graphite, Lithium,
Nickel, Silicon, Platinum, Palladium and
Neodymium
Iron, Aluminium, Lead, Gold, Silver,
Zinc, Manganese, Plastics and Glass
3. Computing recoveries: A 95% recovery rate was assumed for minerals and metals
embedded in processed waste. This accounts for high-performance recycling systems
capable of extracting nearly all recoverable material from each waste stream.
Technology Assessment Framework (TAF) for Recycling Technology
A Technology Assessment Framework (TAF) supports decision making by helping stakeholders,
such as government agencies, companies, and investors-evaluate and adopt appropriate
technologies (Anjali Singh & Thirumalai N C, 2023). This is especially relevant in the context
of India’s formal e-waste recycling industries that are still at a nascent stage. A well-structured
TAF can guide the selection of the right recycling technology based on the waste type and
contextual priorities.
In this study, a technology assessment was carried out to identify the most efficient and
scalable recycling technology for e-waste. The assessment evaluated three technologies—
pyrometallurgy, hydrometallurgy (acid-leaching), and hydrometallurgy (bioleaching)—using a
technical, economic, and environmental (TEE) framework.
To undertake this evaluation, the study applied the Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by
Similarity to Ideal Solution (Fuzzy-TOPSIS) method, which enables systematic comparison of
alternatives under conditions of uncertainty (Choudhary & Shankar, 2012). Expert assessments
of each technology were collected on a 1–5 scale—Very Low (VL), Low (L), Average (A), High
(H), and Very High (VH)—and converted into triangular fuzzy numbers. This fuzzification allows
the model to incorporate variability and judgement more realistically than crisp scoring. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 81
Annexures
Technology
Economics
PyrometallurgyHydrometallurgy (Acid Leaching)
Hydrometallurgy (Bio Leaching)
Enviornment
60%
40%
0%
20%
Figure B.1: Typical Representation of Results from TAF
The Fuzzy-TOPSIS approach maps experts ranking with triangular fuzzy numbers to determine
the relevance of one criterion over another. A fuzzified decision matrix is prepared and the
fuzzy-(TOPSIS) is applied on the fuzzified decision matrix under each criterion considered in
this study.
Under the Fuzzy-TOPSIS approach, expert scores are translated into a weighted decision
matrix, and each technology’s performance is assessed relative to a positive ideal solution (best
performance across all criteria) and a negative ideal solution (worst performance across all
criteria). Final selection is determined using thze closeness coefficient, which measures how far
an option is from the negative ideal and how close it is to the positive one. A higher coefficient
indicates a better overall ranking.
This study also incorporates a modified aggregation method in which criterion weights are
derived from the distances between fuzzy numbers—an approach that prevents zero-weight
distortions and ensures that each TEE dimension is meaningfully represented in the final ranking.
The procedure of Fuzzy-TOPSIS starts from the construction of an evaluation matrix ?????? = [X????????????],
where X???????????? denotes the valuation of the ??????th alternative with respect to ??????th criterion. It can be
summarised as follows:
Step 1: Calculation of normalised decision matrix Z = [zij]
=…=…
∑
n
2
ij ijij
i=1
Z =X / X , j 1, , m, i 1, , n....(1)
Step 2: Calculation of the weighted normalised decision matrix V = [vij]
V????????????= Z???????????? ( ⋅) W??????, ??????=1, …, ?????? , ?????? = 1, …, ?????? ....(2)
Step 3: Determination of the fuzzy positive and negative ideal solution A+ and A −
??????+ = {V+1 , . . . , V+??????} =
∈∈
ijij
max min
V |j B , V |j C
ii
...(3)
??????− = {V−1 , . . . , V−??????} =
∈∈
ijij
max min
V |j B , V |j C
ii
...(4)
where ?????? is for benefit criteria and ?????? is for cost criteria. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 82
Annexures
Step 4: Calculation of the distance of each alternative from the positive ideal solution
and negative ideal solution
( )
++
=
= − = ……∑
m
iij j
j1
d V V , i 1, 2, 3 ..,n,
...(5)
( )
−−
=
= − = ……∑
m
iij j
j1
d V V , i 1, 2, 3 ..,n,
...(6)
Step 5: Calculation of the relative closeness to the ideal solutions
( )
−
−+
= = ………
+
i
ii
d
CCi , i 1, 2, 3, ,n.
dd
...(7)
Step 6: (ranking of alternatives): The closer the CCi is to one the higher the priority of the ith
alternative technology.₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₄ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₄ ₄₂₄ ₄₂₄ ₄₂₄ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆₃fififi ₄₂₆₃fifl ₄₂₆₃fiflfl ₄₂₆₃fiflfl ₄₂₆₃ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₂₆ ₄₂₆₃₂fifl ₄₂₆₃fifl ₄₂₆₃fifl ₄₂₆₆₃fi ₄₂₆₃fifl−ć
Figure B.2: Material Requirements across Battery Chemistry (kg/kWh).
CETM Demand Assessment for EV – batteries and motors
The study applies a bottom-up techno-economic modelling approach that incorporates forecasts
of EV sales, component-specific technology trends, and material intensity estimates derived from
peer-reviewed studies, reports, and industry or stakeholder consultations. The model estimates the
embedded mineral demand of India’s EV market from 2025 to 2070, disaggregated by vehicle
segment, technology type, and scenario pathway.
Vehicle Sale Projections
EV sales projections for 2025 to 2070 were obtained from NITI Aayog’s integrated energy sector
models. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 83
Annexures
Technology Mapping
Each vehicle category was mapped to its corresponding technology components, including
batteries and motors. The average battery capacity assumed for each segment is given in
Figure B.3. ₄₂
Average Battery
Capacity: 3 kWh
Average Motor
Power: 3.65 kW ₄₂
Average Battery
Capacity: 10 kWh
Average Motor
Power: 6.5 kW ₄₂
Average Battery
Capacity: 55 kWh
Average Motor
Power: 55 kW ₄₂₆₃fifl
Average Battery
Capacity: 200 kWh
Average Motor
Power: 200 kW
Figure B.3: Average Battery Capacity and Motor Power for Each Vehicle Segment
Battery-chemistry distribution was modelled dynamically using historical trends and forward-
looking assessments from the IEA, drawing on both global and India-specific energy-transition
scenarios. The base-case IEA scenario employed in this study reflects a continued shift away
from cobalt-rich chemistries (such as NMC 111) toward higher-nickel variants (NMC 532, NMC
622, NMC 811) and increased adoption of LFP batteries, particularly in heavy trucks and entry-
level passenger vehicles where cost and safety considerations dominate (International Energy
Agency, 2021). The scenario also assumes that ASSBs begin commercial entry around 2030
and scale gradually after 2040 in premium and heavy-duty vehicles as improvements in energy
density and performance mature.
The model considered seven key chemistries: Lithium, Nickel, Manganese, Cobalt Oxide (NMC)-
111, 532, 622, and 811; LFP, and ASSB. Mineral intensity values were sourced from a combination
of academic research, life-cycle assessments (LCA) studies, and private communications with
industry experts and stakeholders. The intensity values (kg/kWh) for each chemistry and
component are summarised in the accompanying graphs.
Figure B.4: Mineral Requirement for PMSM Motors Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 84
Annexures
The analysis also assumes that permanent-magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) account for
roughly 93% of EV traction motors, reflecting their global dominance due to high efficiency and
cross-segment applicability (Adamas Intelligence, 2020; Global PMSM Market Share Continues
to Rise Despite Soaring Rare Earth Prices, 2021). In the Indian context, current mineral-demand
projections assume that material intensities for batteries and motors remain largely static over
time, with only marginal improvements. Material-substitution rates remain difficult to model
given limited data and rapidly evolving technology pathways. As domestic R&D expands and
technological choices diversify, future assessments may incorporate dynamic intensity and
substitution parameters where credible data becomes available.
Mineral Demand Estimation Framework
Embedded demand for each critical mineral across EV segments was calculated using a
bottom-up, component-level accounting method. Technology-specific material intensities were
combined with projected vehicle sales and technology-share trajectories using the following
formulation.
M
i,w,y
= S
w,y
x C
w
x T
i,w,y
x I
i,w
Where:
M
i,w,y
= Embedded mineral ‘i’ (in kg) demand for vehicle type ‘w’ in a year ‘y’
S
w,y
= Forecasted vehicle sales of vehicle type ‘w’ in year ‘y’
C
w
= Average vehicle component capacity for vehicle type ‘w’ (e.g., battery in kWh and
traction motors in kW)
T
i,w,y
= Market share of the technology using mineral ‘i’ within vehicle type ‘w’ in year ‘y’ (e.g.,
motor type or battery chemistry)
I
i,w
= Material intensity of mineral ‘i’ per unit of the vehicle component (in kg/kWh or kg/
kW)
for vehicle type ‘w’.
Outputs were aggregated per year for each mineral to estimate the cumulative demand up to 2047
and 2070. The approach was kept similar to that of the other global demand forecasts such as the
IEA
(International Energy Agency, 2024)which are essential for a range of clean energy technologies,
have risen up the policy agenda in recent years due to increasing demand, volatile price movements,
supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical concerns. The dynamic nature of the market necessitates
greater transparency and reliable information to facilitate informed decision-making, as underscored
by the request from Group of Seven (G7. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 85
Annexures
Annex C MATERIAL INTENSITY
Table C.1: Mineral Intensities (in t/GW) of Solar PV Technologies
Solar PV
Technology
Nickel
(Ni)
Tin
(Sn)
Copper
(Cu)
Silicon
(Si)
Indium
(In)
Gallium
(Ga)
Selenium
(Se)
Cadmium
(Cd)
Tellurium
(Te)
Molybdenum
(Mo)
Tungsten
(W)
Graphite
Titanium
(Ti)
Lithium
(Li)
Germanium
(Ge)
Crystalline Silicon
Monocrystalline
Silicon
(mono-Si) PV
44503000
Polycrystalline
Silicon
(poly-Si) PV
44503000
Heterojunction
Silicon (HJT) PV
46004000
Thin film solar cell
Copper Indium
Gallium Selenide
(CIGS) Thin-Film
PV
64622 15435
Amorphous
Silicon (a-Si)
Thin-Film PV
4600150 48
Cadmium
Telluride (CdTe)
103.34600 5052
Perovskite
perovskite/
silicon tandem
0.1320.4560 2.259 0000.9720
Perovskite APT 3.22312.5092.987 4.707 3.4276.417143.7331.9440.0024
Source: Rajesh Chadha & Ganesh Sivamani, 2024; Wagner et al., 2024; Prabhu et al., 2021 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 86
Annexures
Table C.2: Mineral Intensities (in t/GW) of Solar CSP Technologies
Solar CSP
Technology
Categories
Copper
(Cu)
Molybdenum
(Mo)
Nickel
(Ni)
Titanium
(Ti)
Vanadium
(V)
Niobium
(Nb)
Parabolic
troughs
Linear
concentrating
systems
3200 200 940 25 1.9 0
Solar power
towers
Point Focus 1400 56 1800 0 1.7 140
Source: Pihl et al., 2012 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 87
Annexures
Table C.3: Mineral Intensities (in t/GW) of Onshore & Offshore Wind Technologies
Wind
Technology
CategoryWind turbine types
Copper
(Cu)
Dysprosium
(Dy)
Molybdenum
(Mo)
Neodymium
(Nd)
Nickel
(Ni)
Praseodymium
(Pr)
Terbium
(Tb)
Yttrium
(Y)
Onshore
GB-HS-
PMSG (GB
HS PMG)
Gearbox
Gearbox High Speed
Permanent Magnet
Synchronous Generator
115071107049041
GB-DFIGGearbox
Gearbox Doubly-Fed
Induction Generator
190031101849000
GB-SCIGGearbox
Gearbox-Squirrel Cage
Induction Generator
10004.71103449000
DD-EESGDirect Drive
Direct Drive Electrically
Excited Synchronous
Generator
62000110049000
DD-PMSGDirect Drive
Direct Drive Permanent
Magnet Synchronous
Generator
460021110210490357
Offshore
DD-EESGDirect Drive
Direct Drive Electrically
Excited Synchronous
Generator
115071107049041
DD-PMSGDirect Drive
Direct Drive Permanent
Magnet Synchronous
Generator
190031101849000
DD-HTSDirect Drive
Direct Drive High
temperature semiconductor
10004.711034490000.3
GB-MS
PMG
Gearbox
Gearbox Medium Speed
Permanent Magnet
Synchronous Generator
62000110049000
Source: European Commission. Joint Research Centre., 2020 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 88
Annexures
Table C.4: Mineral Intensities (in t/GWh) of BESS Technologies
BESS TechnologyBattery TypeGraphite
Lithium
(Li)
Cobalt
(Co)
Nickel
(Ni)
Copper
(Cu)
Vanadium
(V)
Titanium
(Ti)
Phosphorous
Prussian Blue
Analogues
(Na₂Fe[Fe(CN)₆])
(PBA)580
Lead-AcidPb-A
NASICON
(Na₃V₂(PO₄)₃
NVP598545
Vanadium Redox
Flow Battery
VRFB213400
Lithium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt
NMC 523883117183467
Lithium Titanate LTO54469
Lithium Iron
Phosphate
LFP11008700433387
Sodium Iron
Phosphate (NaFePO₄)
NFP457
Lithium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt
LNMC-8117508383650333
Layered Sodium
Manganese Oxide
(NaMnO₂)
NaMO2
Sodium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt
NaNMC83650
Lithium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt
LNMC-622883100183533317
Sodium-Nickel
Chloride
NaNiCl21500
Polysulfide Bromide PSB Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 89
Annexures
BESS TechnologyBattery TypeGraphite
Lithium
(Li)
Cobalt
(Co)
Nickel
(Ni)
Copper
(Cu)
Vanadium
(V)
Titanium
(Ti)
Phosphorous
Lithium Manganese
Oxide
LMO97000
Solid-State Batteries ESS200
Lithium Nickel cobalt
aluminium Oxide
NCA73310033717283
Sodium-Sulphur NaS
Lithium-Sulphur
Batteries
Li–S200
Zinc-Bromine ZnBr
Source: (IEA, 2023)
Table C.5: Mineral Intensities (in t/GW) of Electrolysers for Hydrogen Technology
Copper
(Cu)
Zirconium
(Zr)
Nickel
(Ni)
Graphite
Cobalt
(Co)
Iridium
(Ir)
Platinum
(Pt)
Silicon
(Si)
Titanium
(Ti)
Lanthanum
(La)
Strontium
(Sr)
Gadolinium
(Gd)
Cerium
(Ce)
Yttrium
(Y)
Alkaline
Electrolysers
(AEL)
533.332455066.67114.678
Proton
Exchange
Membrane
Electrolysers
(PEMEL)
0.531.71.40.191.050.61
Solid Oxide
Electrolysis
(SOEL)
14.1490.907611.791 14.1496.50841.28820.0381280.00531670.018950.062563
Source: (Teixeira et al., 2024)(IEA, 2021)(Koj et al., 2017) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 90
Annexures
Table C.6: Mineral Intensities (in kg/vehicle) for EV Battery Technology
Vehicle Type Category Lithium NickelCobaltCopper GraphitePhosphorous
2 WHEELERS
NMC 111 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 2.70.0
NMC532 0.4 1.4 0.6 1.0 2.70.0
NMC 622 0.3 1.6 0.6 1.0 2.50.0
NMC 811 0.3 2.0 0.3 1.0 2.30.0
NCA+ 0.3 2.2 0.1 0.9 2.20.0
LFP 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.31.3
ASSB 0.5 2.0 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.0
3 WHEELERS
NMC 111 1.2 2.2 2.2 3.3 8.80.0
NMC 532 1.2 4.7 1.8 3.3 8.80.0
NMC 622 1.0 5.3 1.8 3.2 8.30.0
NMC 811 0.8 6.5 0.8 3.3 7.50.0
NCA+ 1.0 7.2 0.3 2.8 7.30.0
LFP 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 11.04.5
ASSB 1.5 6.5 0.8 3.3 0.0 0.0
4 WHEELERS
NMC 111 6.4 11.9 11.9 18.3 48.50.0
NMC 532 6.4 25.7 10.1 18.3 48.60.0
NMC 622 5.5 29.3 10.1 17.4 45.80.0
NMC 811 4.6 35.8 4.6 18.3 41.30.0
NCA+ 5.5 39.4 1.8 15.6 40.30.0
LFP 5.5 0.0 0.0 23.8 60.524.5
ASSB 8.3 35.8 4.6 18.3 0.0 0.0
OTHERS
NMC 111 23.3 43.3 43.3 66.7 176.70.0
NMC532 23.3 93.3 36.7 66.7 176.70.0
NMC 622 20.0 106.7 36.7 63.3 166.70.0
NMC 811 16.7 130.0 16.7 66.7 150.00.0
NCA+ 20.0 143.3 6.7 56.7 146.70.0
LFP 20.0 0.0 0.0 86.7 220.089.2
ASSB 30.0 130.0 16.7 66.7 0.00.0
Source: Bhutada, 2022 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 91
Annexures
Table C.7: Mineral Intensities (in kg/kW) of Motors for EVs
Cobalt Copper Dysprosium Neodymium
0.000525 0.09 0.0026250.00525
Source: (Elwert et al., 2016)(Luke Gear & Dr Richard Collins, 2020)
Annex D MARKET SHARE OF EACH LOW-CARBON TECHNOLOGY
Market share of each sub-technology in Solar PV, Solar CSP, Onshore Wind, Offshore Wind,
BESS, and Electrolysers, respectively (cumulative for 5-year periods starting 2025).
The updated version of NITI Aayog’s IESS and the TIMES Model provides new capacity addition
values for Solar as a combined category. From the combined solar category, the separate new
capacity values for Solar PV and CSP are estimated by taking their share in total capacity from the
older version of IESS 2047 (V3.0). The resulting disaggregated values are presented in Tables E.1
and E.2.
Table D.1: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in Solar PV
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Solar PV Technology (under Current Policy Scenario)
Monocrystalline Silicon
(mono-Si) PV
52% 49% 45% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32%
Polycrystalline Silicon
(poly-Si) PV
27% 25% 22% 20% 19% 18% 17% 17% 17%
Heterojunction Silicon
(HJT) PV
10% 12% 14% 15% 17% 18% 19% 19% 19%
Copper Indium Gallium
Selenide (CIGS) Thin-
Film PV
3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 11% 12%
Amorphous Silicon (a-
Si) Thin-Film PV
2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Cadmium Telluride
(CdTe)
5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8%
Perovskite/silicon
tandem
0% 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8%
Perovskite APT 0% 0% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Solar PV Technology (under Net Zero Scenario)
Monocrystalline Silicon
(mono-Si) PV
50% 45% 40% 35% 32% 28% 26% 25% 24%
Polycrystalline Silicon
(poly-Si) PV
28% 24% 19% 15% 12% 10% 8% 7% 5%
Heterojunction Silicon
(HJT) PV
10% 13% 15% 17% 18% 19% 20% 20% 20%
Copper Indium Gallium
Selenide (CIGS) Thin-
Film PV
5% 6% 7% 9% 11% 13% 14% 15% 16% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 92
Annexures
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Amorphous Silicon (a-
Si) Thin-Film PV
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Cadmium Telluride
(CdTe)
6% 7% 9% 11% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13%
Perovskite/silicon
tandem
0% 4% 5% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11%
Perovskite APT 0% 0% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 10% 11%
Table D.2: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in Solar CSP
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Solar CSP (under Current Policy Scenario)
Parabolic
troughs
94% 91% 89% 87% 86% 84% 82% 81% 80%
Solar power
towers
6% 9% 11% 13% 14% 16% 18% 19% 20%
Solar CSP (under Net Zero Scenario)
Parabolic
troughs
75% 55% 45% 35% 30% 25% 22% 21% 20%
Solar power
towers
25% 45% 55% 65% 70% 75% 78% 79% 80%
Table D.3: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in Onshore and Offshore Wind
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Onshore Wind (under Current Policy Scenario)
GB-HS-PMSG
(GB HS PMG)
37% 39% 40% 41% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45%
GB-DFIG 22% 19% 15% 13% 11% 10% 8% 7% 5%
GB-SCIG 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
DD-EESG 32% 33% 34% 35% 35% 36% 36% 37% 37%
DD-PMSG 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12%
Onshore Wind (under Net Zero Scenario)
GB-HS-PMSG
(GB HS PMG)
43% 44% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45%
GB-DFIG 7% 5% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
GB-SCIG 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
DD-EESG 24% 25% 26% 27% 27% 27% 27% 28% 28%
DD-PMSG 25% 26% 26% 27% 28% 27% 27% 28% 28%
Offshore Wind (under Current Policy Scenario)
GB-SCIG 57% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 45% 45% 45%
DD-PMSG 31% 30% 29% 27% 26% 25% 25% 24% 24% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 93
Annexures
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
DD-HTS0% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 18% 17%
GB-MS PMG 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14%
Offshore Wind (under Net Zero Scenario)
GB-SCIG 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
DD-PMSG 82% 84% 85% 86% 87% 88% 88% 88% 88%
DD-HTS0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
GB-MS PMG 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Table D.4: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in BESS
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
BESS (same market share under Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario)
Lithium Iron
Phosphate
86.0%80.0%75.2%70.3%65.8%61.2%56.5%51.4%46.1%
NMC 5230.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NMC 8111.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NMC 6221.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lithium Titanate 0.9% 1.5% 2.1% 2.7% 3.3% 3.9% 4.5% 5.1% 5.7%
Lithium Manganese
Oxide
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lithium Nickel cobalt
aluminium Oxide
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sodium Iron
Phosphate
(NaFePO₄)
1.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4%
Prussian Blue
Analogues
(Na₂Fe[Fe(CN)₆])
1.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4%
NASICON
(Na₃V₂(PO₄)₃
1.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4%
Layered Sodium
Manganese Oxide
(NaMnO₂)
1.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4%
Sodium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt
1.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4%
Sodium-Nickel
Chloride
1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4%
Sodium-Sulphur 1.0% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2%
Vanadium Redox
Flow Battery
1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 3.6% 4.0%
Polysulfide Bromide 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.2% 3.6% 4.0% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 94
Annexures
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Zinc-Bromine 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.2% 3.6% 4.0%
Solid-State Batteries 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 4.0%
Lithium-Sulphur
Batteries
0.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8%
Lead-Acid0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Table D.5: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in Electrolysers
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Electrolysers (same market share under Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario)
alkaline electrolysers
(AEL)
65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25%
proton exchange
membrane
electrolysers
(PEMEL)
25% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34%
solid oxide
electrolysis (SOEL)
10% 13% 17% 21% 25% 29% 33% 37% 41%
Table D.6: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in EV Batteries
Vehicle
Category
Battery
Type
2025-
2030
2030-
2035
2035-
2040
2040-
2045
2045-
2050
2050-
2055
2055-
2060
2060-
2065
2065-
2070
2Ws
NMC 111 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 532 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 622 11% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 2%
NMC 811 63% 65% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67%
NCA+ 6% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
LFP 8% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 15%
ASSB 0% 7% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
3Ws
NMC 111 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 532 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 622 11% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 2%
NMC 811 63% 65% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67%
NCA+ 6% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
LFP 8% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 15%
ASSB 0% 7% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 95
Annexures
Vehicle
Category
Battery
Type
2025-
2030
2030-
2035
2035-
2040
2040-
2045
2045-
2050
2050-
2055
2055-
2060
2060-
2065
2065-
2070
4Ws
NMC 111 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 532 5% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 622 7% 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 811 22% 23% 21% 18% 14% 11% 8% 5% 3%
NCA+ 6% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LFP 58% 64% 68% 71% 74% 73% 70% 67% 63%
ASSB 0% 2% 5% 8% 12% 16% 22% 28% 34%
OTHERS
NMC 111 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 532 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 622 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 8% 8% 8% 5%
NMC 811 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NCA+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LFP 90% 85% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
ASSB 0% 5% 10% 10% 10% 12% 12% 12% 15%
Annex E DEMAND FOR CRITICAL ENERGY TRANSITION MINERALS
Table E.1: Demand for Critical Energy Transition Minerals at Different Time Horizons
Name
Current Policy Scenario (Tonnes) Net Zero Scenario (Tonnes)
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070 2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Copper 1447931 13917166 28532628 1882424 20623186 43563856
Graphite 279372 10237656 20862674 700016 14955111 30833997
Silicon 858502 4794167 8851178 924808 6738516 11874935
Phosphorous 80274 3409639 7668264 214298 5044803 11430049
Nickel 133218 2585554 5307677 253940 3758838 7530909
Lithium 27118 1119950 2601999 66305 1624768 3777590
Cobalt 11574 336336 660669 23598 478156 926934
Vanadium 1756 65802 253890 8274 149672 625455
Neodymium 4441 90600 185657 11689 154897 315898
Molybdemum 7230 71045 126440 11298 91786 170771
Titanium 150 8985 41642 635 20347 103070
Dysprosium 954 31410 67497 2363 47152 100488
Tin1330 11160 28417 1706 28318 88821
Tellurium 709 5789 13476 1047 14965 42618
Cadmium 622 4850 11588 788 12435 37227 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 96
Annexures
Name
Current Policy Scenario (Tonnes) Net Zero Scenario (Tonnes)
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070 2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Selenium 260 2898 11377 460 7452 29430
Zirconium 2001 6930 11420 4001 19867 23919
Praseodymium 330 3624 6583 1092 9802 18849
Indium 117 1648 6296 208 4104 16587
Tungsten 0 315 1252 0 656 3385
Gallium 30 331 1300 53 852 3363
Niobium 4 56 318 10 265 1596
Germanium 241 804 618 126 798 928
Lanthanum 1.2 11 52 2 33 108
Platinum 0.7 4 11 1 11 23
Yttrium 0.1 1.2 5.4 0.1 1.6 5.3
Strontium 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.1 1.0 3.2
Cerium 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.5 1.6
Gadolinium 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4
Annex F GROWTH RATES FOR DIFFERENT E-WASTE CATEGORIES
Table F.1: Growth Rates for Different E-waste Categories
CAGR
(2018-
2023)
Deploy-
ment:
Household
Deploy-
ment:
Organisa-
tional
CGI
(H)
13
CGI
(P&I)
14
CGI
(O)
15
Weighted
Average
Average
Growth
CEEW1 TV Sets 2% 70% 30% 1.05 1.04 1.046 3.55%
CEEW2 Refrigerator 3% 100%1.051.050 3.88%
CEEW3
Washing
Machine
6% 100%1.051.050 5.62%
13 composite growth index (Households) =
Percapita Income growth rate Internet Penetration Household Growth rate
1× 1
100100100
+×+
14 composite growth index (Personal and Industrial) =
Percapita Income growth rate Internet Penetration cellphone growth rate Population Growth r ate
1×1
100100100100
+××+
15 composite growth index (Organisational) =
Percapita Income growth rate Internet Penetration Population Growth rate share of manufactu ring and services to GDP
1 ×1 ×
100100100100
+×+
Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 97
Annexures
CAGR
(2018-
2023)
Deploy-
ment:
Household
Deploy-
ment:
Organisa-
tional
CGI
(H)
13
CGI
(P&I)
14
CGI
(O)
15
Weighted
Average
Average
Growth
CEEW4 AC11% 60% 40% 1.050 1.04 1.045 7.66%
CEEW5
Fluorescent
and other
Mercury
containing
lamps
5% 70% 30% 1.050 1.04 1.046 4.76%
ITEW1
Centralised
Data
Processing:
Mainframe
8%100%1.04 1.037 5.64%
ITEW2
Personal
Computers
-4% 70% 30% 1.050 1.04 1.046 0.22%
ITEW3 Laptops 5% 70% 30% 1.050 1.04 1.046 4.69%
ITEW6 Printers 2% 30% 70% 1.050 1.04 1.041 2.94%
ITEW15
Cellular
Phones
5%1.19 1.185 11.93%
Annex G SHAPE, SCALE AND WEIGHTS PARAMETERS USED FOR
THE E-WASTE PROJECTION
Table G.1: Shape, Scale and Weights Parameters used for the E-waste Projection
CodeWaste Type
E-waste life
(yrs)
E-waste weight
(kg)
Shape
Parameter
CEEW1 TV Sets913.23.75
CEEW2 Refrigerator10344
CEEW3 Washing Machine9674
CEEW4 AC10475
CEEW5
Fluorescent and other Mercury
containing lamps
50.23.2
ITEW1
Centralised Data Processing:
Mainframe
10353.5
ITEW2 Personal Computers57.53.5
ITEW3 Laptops52.633.2
ITEW6 Printers106.53.8
ITEW15 Cellular Phones30.22.8
NA1 Spent Magnets: Wind Turbines 254502
NA2 Solar PV panels2592.5
NA3 EV LIB Batteries10454 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 98
Annexures
Annex H TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES IN PROCESSING CETMS
FROM PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SOURCES
Table H.1: Mapping of India’s Technological Capabilities in Processing CETMs
Type of UseMinerals
Battery MaterialsLi, Co, Ni, V, Graphite
Rare Earths & MagneticsNd, Pr, Tb, Y, Sc
Electronics/SemiconductorsGa, Ge, In, Te, Se
Alloying & StructuralTi, Nb, Ta
Primary Source
Metal Resource Availability
Process of
India
Merits/ demerits
Non-Indian
Process
Merit/ Demerits
Technology
Assessment
of Indian
process
Li
Spodumene,
Lepidolite,
Zinnwaldite
Yes, in
Karnataka,
Jharkhand,
Rajasthan
Yes, CSIR-
NML and
CSIR-IMMT
Beneficiation
gives 4.5% Li
2
O
98% pure Li
product by acid
process
Acid Process
in ABC,
China
Operational
with higher
Li content
99% LiOH/
LCE
At Par
Co Cobalt ore
Yes,
Odisha,
Jharkhand
Ye s
2ktpy by
NICOMET,
CUNCOLIM,
RUBAMIN,
HZL
Hydrometallurgy
and Solvent
Extraction
Acid Process
in China
99% Co salts At Par
Ni Nickel
Yes,
Odisha,
Jharkhand
EMEW at
HCL 5,400
MTPA by
NICOMET
Hydrometallurgy
with Acid
Acid Process
in China, US,
Australia
99% Ni Salts At Par
Nd, Pr
REE Ore,
Monazite
Yes, in
Gujarat
and Beach
sand
Ye s
99% extraction
in solution
Purification
uncompleted
Alkali-Acid
Process in
China
99% salts Not at Par
T b ,Y REE Ore No NoNo
Acid Process
in China
High Pure
oxide salt
NA
Ti
Titanate and
Titaniferous
magnetite
No
Yes, CSIR-
NML and
CSIR-IMMT
TiO
2
concentrate Kroll Process
High Pure
TiO
2
, TiCl
4
and Ti Metal
Not at Par
Graphite
Graphite
Mines
Yes, in
Odisha,
Jharkhand,
Tamil
Nadu
Yes, CSIR-
NML and
CSIR-NIIST
Column
beneficiation
TRL-9 Process
Beneficiation
High pure
graphite
At Par Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 99
Annexures
Metal Resource Availability
Process of
India
Merits/ demerits
Non-Indian
Process
Merit/ Demerits
Technology
Assessment
of Indian
process
V Vanadite
Yes, in
Karnataka,
North East
Yes, CSIR-
NML
AMV, and Fe-V
Alkali
Roasting
process in
CSIRO
High Pure
Sodium
Vanadate
At Par
W Zinnwaldite
Yes, in
Rajasthan
Yes, CSIR-
NML
Granite
beneficiation
WO3 from
concentrate
Alkali
roasting in
Poland
90% MOH At Par
Ga NIL NIL NANA
Alkali
processing in
China
Ga salt and
metal
NA
Ge Sphalerite
Yes, in
Rajasthan
NoNA
Acid leaching
in Brazil,
China
>90%
extraction in
solution
GeCl4
product
tested
NA
In NIL NA NANA
Acid Process
in C
ITO 99% NA
Nb
Ta
Cassiterite
(Sn)
Yes, in
Karnataka,
Jharkhand,
MP
Yes, CSIR-
NML and
BARC
52% Fe- Nb
concentrate
Nb, Ta, Sn salts
HF leaching 4N pure salts No
Sc NA NA NANA
Acid Process
in ABC,
China
90% pure
salts and
misch oxides
NA
Te, Se Copper Ores
Yes, in
Jharkhand,
Rajasthan
NANA
Alkali
Process in
China
Oxide Salts NA Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 100
Annexures
Secondary Sources
MetalResourceAvailability
Process of
India
Merits/ demerits
Non-Indian
Process
Merit/ Demerits
Technology
Assessment of
Indian process
Li, Co, NiLIBs1.2billiontpa
Acid
leaching
Patented at NML Applies on
all 7 LIB Chemistries 99% pure
salts •85% solvent/ chemical
recycling
Yes, Glencore,
Li Cycle,
Toxco, etc.
Focusses on LCO,
NMC
High pure salts
with fluid recycling
At Par
Nd, PrMagnets—
Acid
leaching
Patented at NML 99% pure
salts
Yes, Boliden,
Umicore
High Pure saltsAt Par
Tb, YPhosphors173mtpa
Acid
leaching
Patented at NML 99% pure
salts Eu, Y salts are derivatives
Yes, Boliden,
Umicore
High Pure saltsAt Par
TiRed Mud19mtpa
Acid
leaching
80% purity of oxide
Yes, Greek
Rud Mud
Consortium
High Pure Ti oxideAt Par
GraphiteLIBs1.2billiontpa
Acid
leaching
Patented at NML
90% pure graphite/graphene
Yes, Glencore,
Li Cycle,
Toxco, etc.
High Pure graphite
flakes
At Par
V
Spent catalyst,
Coal Slag,
Bayer’s Sludge
—
Varies
with Feed
Patented at NML
High Pure vanadium salts on
TRL-9
Yes, AVX
High Pure oxides
and metals
At Par
W
Tool Scrap and
Die Scrap
—-
Acid
leaching
Patented at NML YTO, APT,
Co-salt
Yes, BOLIDEN
Yellow Tungsten
Oxide (WO₃)
At Par
Ga
Red Mud and
Bayer’s Liquor
19mtpa
Solvent
Extraction
Patented at NML 4N pure
metal
NoNA—
GeZinc wastes6mtpaNANABolidenMakes Ge ProductNA
InLCD screens700tpa
Acid
leaching
Flowsheets with NML, IITRBolidenIndium Tin OxideYes
Nb, Ta
Tin Slag,
WEEE
capacitors
1.2billiontpa
Acid/
Alkali
leaching
High Nb, Ta recoveryNILNA
ScRed Mud19.68mtpa
Acid
Leaching
90% recoveryRUSAL>90% pure saltsNo
Te, SeCopper Slimes700 mtpa
Alkali
Process
99% Pure Se and Te metal
Powder with Cu regenerated
—-——NA Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 101
Annexures
Annex I CUMULATIVE RECOVERIES FROM E-WASTE UNTIL 2047
(REFORM SCENARIO)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Cu Gr Ni Co Si Li Nd
Kilo Tonnes
Cumulative CRM Recoveries from E-Waste from 2023-47
CEEW1 CEEW2 CEEW3 CEEW4 CEEW5
ITEW1 ITEW2 ITEW3 ITEW6 ITEW15
Spent Magnets Solar Waste EV LIB Batteries
Figure I.1: Cumulative CETM Recoveries from E-waste Between 2025 and 2047
(Reform Scenario)
0
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2047
Copper (Cu)Nickel (Ni)Lithium (Li)
GraphiteCobalt (Co)Silicon (Si)
Neodymium (Nd)
Figure I.2: Share of Mineral Demand fulfilled by Recycled Minerals Between 2025 and 2047
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CRITICAL MINERAL ASSESSMENT:
DEMAND AND SUPPLY
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
CRITICAL MINERAL ASSESSMENT:
DEMAND AND SUPPLY
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO SCENARIOS TOWARDS
VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
CRITICAL MINERAL
ASSESSMENT: DEMAND
AND SUPPLY
(VOL. 10) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply vii
Authors and
Acknowledgments
Chairperson
Dr. V. K. Saraswat
Member, NITI Aayog
Leadership
Sh. Suman Bery
Vice Chairman, NITI Aayog
Sh. B.V.R. Subrahmanyam
CEO, NITI Aayog
Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj
Programme Director, Green Transition,
Energy & Climate Change Division,
NITI Aayog
Sh. Rajnath Ram
Advisor, Energy, NITI Aayog
Core Modelling Team
NITI Aayog
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist, NITI
Aayog
Dr. Anjali Jain
Consultant Grade II, NITI Aayog
Sh. Nitin Bajpai
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Knowledge Partners
Sh. Vivek Chandran
Co-Founder, Solution for Sustainable Living
(SoSuL)
Sh. Animesh Ghosh
Research Fellow, Ashoka Centre for People
Centric Energy Transition (ACPET)
Ms. Mrunali Tembhurne
Associate Fellow, TERI
Authors
NITI Aayog
Sh. Manoj Kumar Upadhyay
Deputy Adviser, NITI Aayog
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist, NITI
Aayog
Dr. Anjali Jain
Consultant Grade II, NITI Aayog
Sh. Nitin Bajpai
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Sh. Anurag Pandey
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Ms. Srishti Dewan
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Sh. Harshavardhan Reddy
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Knowledge Partners
Sh. Vivek Chandran
Co-Founder, Solution for Sustainable Living
(SoSuL)
Dr. Abhilash
Senior Principal Scientist, National
Metallurgical Laboratory, CSIR Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply viii
Authors and Acknowledgments
Ms. Meghana M
Senior Program Associate,
Energiva Ventures Pvt. Ltd.
Sh. Souvik Bhattacharjya
Director, TERI
Ms. Mrunali Tembhurne
Associate Fellow, TERI
Sh. Ravi Kasera
Research Associate, TERI
Sh. Vaibhav Chowdhary
Director, ACPET
Sh. Animesh Ghosh
Research Fellow, ACPET
Sh. Soumit Pandey
Junior Research Associate, ACPET
Ms. Saloni Sachdeva
Clean Energy Specialist, IEEFA
Ms. Kaira Rakheja
Energy Analyst, IEEFA
Sh. Charith Konda
Energy Specialist, India Mobility and New
Energy, IEEFA
Sh. Rajesh Chadha
Senior Fellow, CSEP
Sh. Ganesh Sivamani
Associate Fellow, CSEP
Sh. Karthik Bansal
Research Associate, CSEP
Dr. Amrita Goldar
Senior Fellow & Thematic Lead, ICRIER
Dr. Anjali Singh
Senior Fellow, ICRIER
Sh. Amit Kumar
Research Associate, ICRIER
Sh. Kartik Nair
Research Associate, ICRIER
Ms. Ritika Verma
Research Associate, ICRIER
Sh. Sarwar Ali
Research Associate, ICRIER
Peer Reviewers
Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran
Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India
Sh. Partha Sarathi Reddy
Programme Director, NITI Aayog
Sh. Ateesh Kumar Singh
Additional Secretary, DPIIT, Ministry of
Commerce and Industry
Sh. Dinesh V. Ganvir
ADG, Geological Survey of India
Sh. Surendra Kumar Gotherwal
Scientist-E, Ministry of Electronics and
Information Technology
Dr. Bhupendra Kumar Sharma
Scientist-D, Dept of Science and Technology
Ms. Ritika Bansal
Deputy Director, Department of Economic
Affairs
Sh. Apoorva Anand
Deputy Director, Central Electricity Authority
(CEA)
Sh. B Abhiram Vishnu
Deputy Manager, SECI
Ms. Poonam Kapur
Research Officer, NITI Aayog Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply ix
Authors and Acknowledgments
Sh. Vipul Gupta
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Dr. Sunil K. Sansaniwal
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Sh. Sharvan Kumar Pushkar
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Sh. Saksham Agarwal
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Sh. Vishal Kumar
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Ms. Afshan Ameer
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Sh. Prince Tiwari
Former Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Sh. K. Harshvardhan Reddy
Former Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Working Group Coordinators
Sh. Manoj Kumar Upadhyay
Deputy Adviser, NITI Aayog
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist,
NITI Aayog
Sh. Anurag Pandey
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Sh. K. Harshvardhan Reddy
Former Young Professional, NITI Aayog
Working Group Members
Dr. V. K. Saraswat
Member, NITI Aayog
Sh. Ishtiyaque Ahmed
Programme Director, NITI Aayog
Sh. Ateesh Kumar Singh
Additional Secretary, DPIIT, Ministry of
Commerce and Industry
Sh. Vikram Misri
Foreign Secretary of India
Sh. Lalit Bohra
DRM, Waltair (Visakhapatnam) Division, East
Coast Railway
Dr. Veena Kumari Dermal
Chief Postmaster General, Telangana Circle
Sh. Asheesh Joshi
Joint Secretary, Department of School
Education and Literacy
Sh. Chandni Raina
Adviser, Department of Economic Affairs
Dr. Deep Prakash
Head, ICPD & Scientific Secretary, AEC
Dr. Neeraj Sinha
Scientist G, Office of PSA
Dr. Sandip Chatterjee
Scientist G, Ministry of Electronics &
Information Technology
Sh. Hemraj Suryavanshi
Adviser (Technical), KABIL
Sh. Satish Kumar
Chairman and CEO of the Railway Board
Sh. Dharmendra Kumar
Joint Director, DEA
Mr. R. Srikanth
Professor and Dean, NIAS
Mr. Karthik Ganesan
Fellow, CEEW
Sh. Rajesh Chadha
Senior Fellow, CSEP
Dr. Amrita Goldar
Senior Fellow & Thematic Lead, ICRIER Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply x
Authors and Acknowledgments
Sh. Manoj Kumar Upadhyay
Deputy Adviser, NITI Aayog (Member
Secretary)
Collaborators/Expert Consultants
Sh. Lekhan Thakkar
Joint Secretary, National Security Council
Secretariat
Ms. Shwetha Rao
Director, Department of Financial Services
Dr. Sukanya Chakraborti
Chief Technical Officer, KABIL
Sh. Deepak Srivastava
Director, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas
Sh. Sureshwar Singh Bonal
Director, Ministry of Heavy Industries
Sh. Santosh Kumar
Assistant Director, Ministry of Micro, Small &
Medium Enterprises
Sh. Sanjay Sharma
Director (Solar), Solar Energy Corporation of
India Ltd
Dr. Prashant Mishra
Director (Technical), National Institute of
Solar Energy
Dr. K.K. Garg
Scientist D, Ministry of Environment, Forest
& Climate Change
Sh. Satyendra Kumar
Former Director, NITI Aayog
Sh. Mohammad Sadiq
Director (G), Ministry of Mines
Sh. Surendra Kumar Gotherwal
Scientist D, Ministry of Electronics &
Information Technology
Ms. Sunita Verma
Scientist G, Ministry of Electronics &
Information Technology
Sh. A.N. Singh
Scientist F, Ministry of Environment, Forest &
Climate Change
Sh. Surata Ram
Chief Engineer, Central Electricity Authority
Sh. Vijay Menghani
Chief Engineer (Clean Energy & Energy
Transition), Central Electricity Authority
Sh. Rishabh Jain
Senior Programme Lead, CEEW
Ms. Ilika Mohan
Research Manager, ACPET
Sh. Yogesh Sharma
Professor, IIT Roorkee
Dr. N. Ramesh Kumar
Assistant Hydrogeologist, Department of
Water Resources
Sh. Anurag Mishra
Senior Programme Manager, Shakti
Foundation
Technical Editors
Ms. Aastha Manocha
Editor and Communication Consultant
(Independent)
Ms. Rishu Nigam
Lead Editor and Communication Consultant
(Independent)
Ms. Srishti Dewan
Young Professional, NITI Aayog Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xi
Contents
List of Figures xiii
List of Tables xiv
List of Abbreviations xv
Executive Summary xvii
1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Scope and Methodology 3
2. Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition....................................................7
2.1 Embedded Mineral Requirements by Technology 8
2.1.1 Solar 8
2.1.2 Wind 12
2.1.3 Battery Energy Grid Storage Systems 14
2.1.4 Hydrogen Electrolyser 17
2.1.5 Electric Vehicle Motors 18
2.1.6 Electric Vehicle Batteries 20
2.2 Cumulative Domestic Demand for CETMs 22
2.3 India’s CETM Demand in a Global Context (2050) 26
2.4 Key Takeaways 28
3. Supply Chain Risks......................................................................................................................31
3.1 Overview of CETM Demand, Domestic Resources and Reserves, and Import Dependence 32
3.2 Domestic Critical Mineral Resources and Reserves 34
3.3 Processing of Minerals in India 35
3.4 Import Dependence – Deep Dive of Five CETMs 36
3.5 Import Dependence and Geopolitical Risks 40
3.6 Vulnerabilities of the Global Critical Mineral Supply Chains 41
3.7 Procurement of CETMs for Domestic Demand 43
3.8 Discussion of Findings 43
4. Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral.....................................................45
4.1 Allocation of Mineral Licenses 46
4.2 Incentivising Exploration 47 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xii
Contents
4.3 Accessing Credible Exploration Data 49
4.4 Post-Lease Clearances 49
4.5 National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) 49
4.6 Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs) in India’s Critical Minerals Strategy 50
4.7 International Strategies 51
4.8 Mineral Markets 52
4.9 Discussion of Findings 53
5. Ecosystem Requirements for Circular Economy Solutions.................................................55
5.1 Current Landscape of Circular Economy Policies 56
5.2 Estimating E-Waste Available for Recycling 57
5.3 Identifying Optimal E-Waste Recycling Technology 58
5.4 Extent of CETM Demand that can be met by Circularity 58
5.5 Alternative Sources of Minerals 59
5.6 Discussion of Findings 60
6. R&D Requirements for Critical Mineral Processing and Recycling...................................61
6.1 Technologies for Mineral Processing and Recycling 62
6.2 R&D-Supportive Policies In Processing and Recycling of Critical Minerals 63
6.3 Global Developments in Mineral Processing and Recycling 64
6.4 Discussion of Findings 65
7. Policy Suggestions......................................................................................................................67
7.1 Guiding Principles for Policy Action 68
7.2 Suggestions 70
Annexures...........................................................................................................................................75
References.........................................................................................................................................102 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xiii
List of Figures
Figure 1.1Methodology Adopted for Supply-Side Assessment3
Figure 2.1Solar PV – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario
(CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
10
Figure 2.2Solar CSP – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario
(CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
11
Figure 2.3Onshore Wind – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy
Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
13
Figure 2.4Offshore Wind – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy
Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
14
Figure 2.5Stationary Battery Energy Storage – Embedded Mineral Requirements under
Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
16
Figure 2.6Hydrogen Electrolyser – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current
Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
17
Figure 2.7EV Motors – Embedded Mineral Requirements19
Figure 2.8EV Batteries – Embedded Mineral Requirements21
Figure 2.9aCumulative Mineral Demand in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) & Net Zero
Scenario (NZS)
24
Figure 2.9bCumulative Mineral Demand in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) & Net Zero
Scenario (NZS)
25
Figure 2.10India's CETM Demand as Share of Global Demand in Net Zero Scenario (2050) 27
Figure 3.1Import Dependence of (A) Copper Oxides and Hydroxides and (B) Copper
Cathodes
37
Figure 3.2Import Dependence of (A) Natural Graphite and (B) Synthetic Graphite 38
Figure 3.3Import Dependence of (A) Lithium Carbonate and (B) Lithium Oxides and
Hydroxides
39
Figure 3.4Import Dependence of (A) Nickel Oxides and Hydroxides and (B) Nickel
Sulphate
40
Figure 3.5India’s Import Dependency of Key Minerals vs. Geopolitical Risk41
Figure 5.1Cumulative CETM Recoveries from E-Waste Between 2025 and 2047 in
Current Policy Scenario
57
Figure 5.2Share of CETM Demand Fulfilled by Recycled Minerals between 2025 and
2047 Current Policy Scenario
59 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xiv
List of Tables
Table 1.1 Projected Capacities of various Technologies and EV Sales Penetration 4
Table 2.1 Market Share of Technologies under Solar PV and Concentrated Solar Power 9
Table 2.2 Market Share of Technologies under On-Shore Wind and Off-Shore Wind 12
Table 2.3 Market Share of Technologies under Battery Energy Storage Systems15
Table 2.4 Market Share of Battery Technologies under Electric Vehicles’ Different
Categories
21
Table 3.1 Comparison of CETM Demand with Remaining Resources, Reserves and
Import Dependence
33
Table 4.1 Results of Auctions for Critical Mineral Blocks47
Table 4.2 Recent PSU Activity on CETMS50
Table 6.1 Summary of Minerals Analysed for Processing and Recycling Technology and
R&D Readiness
62 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xv
List of Abbreviations
AELAlkaline Electrolysers
ARCIInternational Advanced Research Centre for Powder Metallurgy and New
Materials
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
ASSBAll Solid-State Batteries
BESSBattery Energy Storage System
BWMRBattery Waste Management Rules
CAMCathode Active Material
CEEWConsumer Electrical and Electronics Waste
CETClean Energy Technology
CETMCritical Energy Transition Minerals
CPSCurrent Policy Scenario
CSPConcentrated Solar Power
CTOConsent to Operate
DMF District Mineral Foundation
ECEnvironmental Clearance
ELExploration Licence
EOLEnd-of-Life
EPRExtended Producer Responsibility
EVsElectric Vehicles
FCForest Clearance
FCFSFirst Come First Serve
FPICFree, Prior and Informed Consent
HCLHindustan Copper Limited
HSHarmonised System
ICMM International Council on Mining and Metals
IESSIndia Energy Security Scenarios
IRELIndian Rare Earths Limited
IRMAInitiative for Responsible Mining Assurance
ITEWInformation Technology and Telecommunication Equipment Waste
JVJoint Venture
KMMLKerala Minerals and Metals Limited Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xvi
List of Tables
LCALife-Cycle Assessment
LCTLow-Carbon Technology
LFPLithium Iron Phosphate
LTOLithium Titanate Oxide
MMDRMines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act
MRVMonitoring, Reporting, Verification
MSPMineral Security Partnership
MtMillion Tonnes
NASICON Sodium Superionic Conductor
NMCNickel Manganese Cobalt
NMETNational Mineral Exploration Trust
NPENational Policy on Electronics
NZSNet Zero Scenario
OEMOriginal Equipment Manufacturer
PEMEL Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolysers
PLIProduction Linked Incentive
PMSMPermanent Magnet Synchronous Motors
PVPhotovoltaic
QCI-NABET Quality Council of India – National Accreditation Board for Education
and Training
QUADQuadrilateral Security Dialogue
REERare Earth Elements
RPORenewable Purchase Obligations
S&T PRISM The Science and Technology Promotion of Research and Innovation in
Startups and MSMEs
SOELSolid Oxide Electrolysers
SRMSwitched Reluctance Motors
TAFTechnology Assessment Framework
TEETechnical, economic and environmental
TIMES The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System
TOPSIS Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation
TQBTechnically Qualified Bidders
TRLTechnology Readiness Level
WLCWildlife Clearance
ZEVZero-Emission Vehicle Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xvii
Executive Summary
India’s pathway to Net Zero by 2070 will be materially shaped by secure, affordable and
responsible access to Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs). This report estimates
cumulative mineral needs arising from India’s deployment of clean technologies across selected
key segments: Solar PV, Wind, Battery Energy Storage Systems, EVs (Batteries and Motors),
and electrolysers, and benchmarks them against global demand to assess strategic exposure
and leverage. In 2050, India’s demand under a Net Zero Scenario (NZS) averages about 9% of
global demand across shared CETMs. This is sizable in absolute terms but insufficient for price-
setting power, highlighting the need for a deliberate supply-chain strategy. Beyond scale, timing
matters: over two-thirds of cumulative demand arrives after mid-century, creating both urgency
to de-risk supply now and opportunity to localise value chains and recycling as volumes mature.
Illustratively, by 2050, copper requirements exceed 20 million tonnes (Mt), and graphite alone
surpasses 14 Mt, justifying robust planning for domestic mining, processing, and recycling.
The Modelling Exercise and Scenarios
This study links technology deployment pathways to embedded mineral demand through 2070
under two scenarios: Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS). This report
leverages inputs from other working groups, namely power and transport, to estimate the
critical mineral requirements.
Inputs such as technology-specific deployment trajectories (solar, wind, battery storage,
electrolysers) and derived Electric Vehicle (EV) sales from the other working groups are used
to assess mineral requirements. The analysis further examines how this demand can be met
through domestic resources and reserves, while accounting for import exposure, geopolitical
risk, and policy instruments, including the National Critical Minerals Mission (NCMM). It considers
circularity potential and Research and Development (R&D) readiness in processing/recycling.
Due to certain limitations in this study (e.g., static material intensities; partial sectoral coverage),
the results are intended as a directional decision aid that will need to be refined as technologies
and markets evolve.
Key Demand Modelling Insights
1. Scale and timing: Over 66% of cumulative Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs)
demand materialises after 2050. Therefore, planning must front-load exploration,
processing, circularity, and strategic sourcing.
2. Absolute needs: Cumulative Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) needs
projected under Net Zero Scenario (~169 Mt) are 51% more than CPS (~112 Mt), with Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xviii
Executive Summary
the rise concentrated in battery-linked minerals. By 2050, copper demand is estimated
to exceed 20 Mt, and that of graphite to surpass 14 Mt, signalling the magnitude of
midstream/refining and recycling systems India must build even if its global market
share remains modest.
3. Drivers by technology
i. Batteries (EVs, battery storage): EVs and Battery Energy Storage Systems
(BESS) together dominate future Critical Energy Transition Minerals’ demand,
accounting for approximately 55% and 5%, respectively, with concentrated mineral
requirements for graphite, lithium, nickel, phosphorous, cobalt and vanadium,
making storage security pivotal.
ii. EV Motors & Wind: These hinge on rare earths (Neodymium, Praseodymium,
Dysprosium, Terbium) for permanent magnets, critical to domestic manufacturing
ambitions.
iii. Solar Photovoltaic (PV): Second-highest total demand with a share of about 31%,
driven by large volumes of silicon and copper, with additional strategic exposure
to gallium, germanium, and tellurium in advanced PV variants.
iv. Electrolysers: Smaller volumes overall but there is reliance on scarce, high-cost
catalysts such as Platinum and Iridium.
Priority Challenges
1. High import exposure and concentration risk: For several priority minerals such as
graphite, India is highly import-dependent with exposure to geopolitically sensitive or
single-supplier sources.
2. Domestic capacity gaps: Even where domestic resources exist (e.g., copper/graphite),
bottlenecks in exploration, mine operationalisation, refining and recycling slow value-
chain development. Private participation too remains constrained by commercial risk
and permitting frictions.
3. Vulnerabilities in global mineral supply chains: Export restrictions, foreign control of
upstream assets, long-term offtake lock-ups and price volatility limit late-entrant access.
In areas of narrow dependence, disruption risks persist even with friendly suppliers.
4. Circularity at insufficient scale (near-term): While recycling can materially help for
battery minerals, it cannot be a viable substitute for primary supply due to outpaced
demand in early years. Further, collection efficiency, technology maturity, and feedstock
access limit attainable shares before 2050.
5. R&D limitations: India has mature capabilities in select minerals and streams, but overall
readiness is uneven across 18 mapped Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs).
Sustained, mission-oriented R&D is required in processing and recycling to onshore
value addtion.
Policy Suggestions
India’s critical minerals challenge is defined by a combination of rapidly rising demand, high
import dependence, concentrated global supply chains, long development timelines and Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xix
Executive Summary
increasing expectations around environmental and social performance. While multiple initiatives
address parts of this challenge, supply security will ultimately depend on how well demand
growth, domestic capacity creation, international engagement, innovation and governance are
aligned over time.
The Suggestions are primarily aimed toward de-risking Critical Energy Transition Mineral supply
chains, to be guided by six principles and operationalised through interlinked pillars spanning
domestic exploration and innovation, international sourcing, midstream capacity & circularity,
and supported by cross-cutting institutional reforms. Together, these Suggestions attempt to
provide a coherent framework for action while remaining adaptable to uncertainty and evolving
market conditions.
Six Guiding Principles
1. Empower private sector leadership across the value chain: Enable private investment
and operational leadership by aligning regulatory, fiscal and compliance frameworks
with the risk and timelines of Critical Energy Transition Mineral activities.
2. Recognise differentiated timelines across supply sources: Sequence interventions
across recycling, refining, overseas sourcing and mining based on realistic development
horizons.
3. Build diversified and mutually beneficial international partnerships: Reduce
concentration risk through strategic, value-chain–based cooperation with trusted
partners.
4. Embed environmental and social safeguards as supply-security enablers: Treat
environmental standards, social licence and transparency as core to long-term project
viability and market access.
5. Drive mission-oriented innovation and R&D: Focus public R&D on deployment-
ready and next-generation technologies that reduce dependence and improve
competitiveness.
6. Strengthen institutional capacity, data systems and coordination: Anchor decision-
making in robust data, modelling and centre–state coordination mechanisms.
Pillars of Policy Action
Pillar-1: Strengthen Domestic Exploration and Mining
a. Rebalance exploration and licensing regimes: Introduce conditional First Come, First
Served (FCFS) access for early-stage exploration of priority Critical Energy Transition
Minerals with milestones, data disclosure and rights-based progression.
b. Make private participation the default in early-stage exploration: Prioritise private
explorers for exploration licences using conditional First Come, First Served (FCFS)
mechanisms suited to geological uncertainty.
c. Improve geological knowledge and data credibility: Mandate Committee for
Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards (CRIRSCO) aligned reporting and
strengthen pre-competitive geological intelligence for regulatory decision-making. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xx
Executive Summary
d. Align public-sector mining capabilities with Critical Energy Transition Mineral
priorities: Review and realign PSU mandates, assets and investment priorities with
national critical minerals objectives.
e. Preserve environmental and social accountability: Retain public consultation, restrict
expedited approvals to compliant proponents and mandate independent audits.
f. Improve permitting efficiency and coordination: Establish coordinated centre–state
permitting mechanisms, including Chief Secretary–led committees and digital tracking
systems.
Pillar-2: Build Domestic Innovation and Technology Capability
a. Establish a mission-oriented critical raw materials R&D framework: Shift from
fragmented projects to outcome-oriented missions aligned with national risk and
deployment priorities.
b. Create pilot-to-commercialisation pathways: Develop shared pilot and demonstration
infrastructure and deploy First-of-a-Kind (FOAK) risk-sharing instruments tied to
performance benchmarks.
c. Enable structured international technology co-development and absorption: Pursue
joint R&D and pilots while embedding domestic capability-building and localisation
requirements.
Pillar-3: Diversify International Supply Sources and Reduce Import Risk
a. Adopt risk-differentiated international engagement strategies: Classify minerals by
concentration and geopolitical exposure and tailor overseas engagement accordingly.
b. Embed India in resilient global value-chain arrangements: Identify minerals suitable
for shared processing and refining hubs through bilateral and plurilateral frameworks.
c. De-risk overseas access through aggregation and facilitation: Provide project-
preparation support, aggregate demand for equity and offtake, and coordinate overseas
engagement through a single-window platform.
d. Strengthen KABIL for overseas Critical Energy Transition Mineral execution: Enhance
capitalisation, specialist capabilities and execution partnerships with experienced
overseas-facing PSUs and financial institutions.
e. Improve price discovery and market risk management: Facilitate access to global
exchanges and hedging instruments and integrate market signals into sourcing and
stockpiling decisions.
Pillar-4: Scale Circularity and Refining
a. Unlock reliable secondary feedstock for Critical Energy Transition Minerals: Permit
controlled imports of high-value scrap, enable authorised access to mine tailings and
legacy waste, and undertake a national assessment of tailings potential.
b. Make refining and advanced recycling economically viable: Deploy a targeted package
of capital support, output-linked incentives and tax rationalisation for refining and
advanced recycling facilities. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply xxi
Executive Summary
c. Enable clustered refining and recycling capacity: Extend National Critical Mineral
Mission (NCMM)-linked processing cluster support to advanced recycling hubs,
including common infrastructure and anchor-firm-led models.
d. Secure access to critical refining and recycling technologies: Facilitate bilateral and
plurilateral technology access arrangements with embedded domestic capability-
building requirements.
e. Strengthen environmental and compliance safeguards: Reinforce Extended Producer
Responsibility (EPR) verification, traceability and third-party audits to ensure incentives
accrue only to compliant operators.
Pillar-5: Institutional Architecture
a. Establish a National Critical Raw Material (CRM) Analytical Strategy Unit: Create a
mandate-neutral, non-executing strategic function responsible for system-level CRM
risk assessment, strategic prioritisation, and preparation of the Net Zero Technology
and Materials Roadmap and National Critical Raw Materials Strategy.
b. Institutionalise a National Critical Raw Materials Strategy and early-warning system:
Prepare strategy integrating demand signals, supply-risk assessments and strategic
priorities, supported by periodic assessment of critical raw material risk and early-
warning.
c. Enable strategic project designation and coordination: Identify a limited set of
strategic critical raw material projects and apply enhanced inter-ministerial and centre–
state coordination to resolve bottlenecks, without diluting statutory safeguards.
d. Improve calibration and coordination of policy and market instruments: Review the
adequacy and sequencing of approvals, incentives, finance and market instruments to
support the timely execution of priority Critical Raw Material (CRM) projects. 1
INTRODUCTION Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 2
Introduction
1
Low-Carbon Technologies (LCTs), such as solar photovoltaic panels (PV), Battery Energy Storage
Systems (BESS), wind turbines, and Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs), will need to be deployed at
a progressively larger scale to enable India’s energy transition to achieve Net Zero Emissions by
2070. India has a nascent but rapidly expanding LCT manufacturing industry, which is essential
to achieving its ambitious climate targets, while creating jobs and strengthening economic
resilience. These technologies rely on critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare-
earth elements, which are currently mined and processed by a limited number of countries
globally (International Energy Agency, 2024). The high reliance on imported minerals and the
concentration of their global supply chain present significant risks of price volatility and supply
disruptions. Some of the vulnerabilities arise from overseas geological concentration and the
governance challenges in exporting countries, environmental, social and governance concerns
at mining and processing sites, and systemic shocks including natural disasters and pandemics
such as COVID-19.
Recognising the economic importance and supply risks associated with such minerals, Ministry
of Mines released a list of 30 critical minerals in June 2023, identified from a range of industries
including electronics, defence, and renewable energy (Committee on identification of Critical
Minerals, 2023). This list comprises 28 distinct elements along with 17 Rare Earth Elements
(REEs) Group and 6 Platinum Group Elements (PGEs), totalling 51 individual elements. 24
minerals were classified as ‘Critical and Strategic Minerals’ under the MMDR Act. Of these, 21
of the 28 individual elements, and the two group elements of REE and PGE were common
between the two lists (See Annex A.1).
NITI Aayog launched a comprehensive initiative to develop a Net Zero aligned development
roadmap for critical minerals. A set of inter-ministerial working groups was convened to assess
the impact of long-term transition pathways across key domains like macroeconomic aspects
of transition, sectoral transformations in transport, power, industry, buildings, and agriculture,
financing for climate action, critical minerals, R&D and manufacturing, and the social implications
of transition. Within this effort, the Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Critical Minerals is tasked
with the following terms of reference:
i. Demand assessment for Renewable Energy (RE): Assess the demand for critical
minerals/materials in view of increased demand for renewable energy technologies
(Energy Storage, Solar, Wind, Electrolyser, Grid inverter etc) in Net Zero Scenario.
ii. Demand assessment for transport: Assess the demand for critical minerals/materials
for the automobile sector in India (2-wheelers (2W), 3-wheelers (3W), 4 -wheelers
(4W), Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) – EVs and Hybrid) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 3
Introduction
iii. Supply chain risks: Assess the risks in supply chain of critical minerals/materials and
suggest Suggestions for domestic exploration, enhancing domestic production and
suggesting measures for external trade such as friend shoring, acquisition of assets
overseas etc.
iv. Examine the role of circular economy in recycling and re-use of critical minerals.
v. Examine the domestic mining policy of basic metals from the perspective of
Aatmanirbhar Bharat.
vi. Assess the crucial and emerging clean energy technologies relevant to India’s Net
Zero transition and readiness.
vii. Suggest appropriate R&D and industrial ecosystem for promoting indigenous
processing and recycling of minerals.
1.1 SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
To address both demand and supply-side aspects of the critical minerals required for India’s
clean energy transition through 2070, and to guide policy and technological interventions, this
study employs the following structured approach:
As illustrated in Figure 1.1, the analysis begins with scenario-based projections of low-carbon
technology deployment derived from the integrated assessment modelling undertaken by NITI
Aayog to develop India’s Net Zero transition pathways. Based on these projections, embedded
critical mineral demand is estimated using technology-specific market share assumptions.
The study then assesses supply options by mapping this demand against domestic reserve
availability, circular economy potential, and imports. The detailed methodology is described
below:Low Carbon Technology Pathways (CPS/NZS) Embedded Critical Mineral Demand Supply of Critical Minerals Domestic Mining Imports Circularity Policy Recommendation
to overcome supply gaps
Figure 1.1: Methodology Adopted for Supply-Side Assessment
I. Low-Carbon Technology Pathways
An integrated energy sector model, developed by NITI Aayog, projects future energy demand,
fuel consumption, and emissions across the entire energy system under two scenarios: Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 4
Introduction
Current Policy Scenario (CPS) represents a continuation of policies implemented up to 2023,
projecting current trends in technology deployment and energy use. While the scenario allows
for the introduction of new low-carbon technologies, their adoption is assumed to advance
gradually, accelerating only once commercial viability is achieved.
Net Zero Scenario (NZS) incorporates both existing measures and additional policy interventions
required for India to achieve Net Zero GHG emissions by 2070. It assumes a proactive, sustained
and large-scale deployment of low-carbon technologies, supported by enabling policies, targeted
investments, and infrastructure development.
This study uses five-year projections (2025-2070) of new capacity additions for key low-carbon
technologies, including solar, onshore and offshore wind, Battery Energy Storage Systems
(BESS), green hydrogen electrolysers, Electric Vehicles (EVs), covering both growing demand
and replacement of ageing infrastructure.
Managing Uncertainty
To account for inherent uncertainties in long-term modelling, the results from both the scenarios
were interpreted with a ±10% variation margin. However, as the objective is to support forward-
looking planning and preparedness under a range of possible futures, the upper bound of
the projected capacity additions under both the scenarios has been used. This ensures a
precautionary estimate for Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) demand, to enable strategic
readiness for higher levels of deployment aligned with a Net Zero pathway.
Key Trends in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
New capacity additions reveal sharply differing trajectories between CPS and NZS, with
implications for the scale and timing of Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) demand.
The projected capacity of key technologies studied here, derived from detailed energy sector
modelling by NITI Aayog, is provided in Table below:
Table 1.1: Projected Capacities of Various Technologies and EV Sales Penetration
Technology
Name
Current Policy ScenarioNet Zero Scenario
2050 207020502070
Cumulative Capacities
Solar (GW)1,430-1,650 3,150-3,250 2,400-2,500 4,900-5,650
Wind (GW)430-500 900-1,050 700-770 1,050-1,300
Grid Storage (GW) 420-520 1,300-1,400 900-1,150 2,500-3,000
Green Hydrogen
(million tonnes)
8.5242550
EV Penetration in New Sales
2W100% 100% 100% 100%
3W90%90%100% 100%
4W-Car60%80%70%85%
4W-Taxi60%80%95%95% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 5
Introduction
Bus80%80%90%90%
Vehicles payload up to
3.5 tonnes
60%80%90%95%
Vehicles payload from
3.5-12 tonnes
15%60%50%95%
Vehicles payload
above 12 tonnes
4%50%25%80%
Overall, the Net Zero pathways represent an earlier and more intense expansion of clean
technologies, implying earlier and more intense mineral demand compared to CPS. This has
direct implications for supply chain readiness, exploration timelines, and the need for near-term
action on mineral sourcing and processing infrastructure.
II. Embedded Critical Mineral Demand Assessment
The methodology (detailed in Annex B) used to estimate demand for India’s Critical Energy
Transition Minerals (CETMs) through 2070 is structured into four core steps:
Step 1: Technology Deployment Scenarios
The demand assessment of Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) is based on the
anticipated scale and composition of low-carbon technology deployment. It covers a defined
group of technologies central to this transition, including solar PVs, concentrated solar, wind
turbines, EVs, BESS, and hydrogen electrolysers. Demand is assessed at multiple milestone years
through 2070, under two scenarios: Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario, allowing
temporal comparison of material needs under different levels of ambition.
The analysis focuses on embedded mineral demand, which is the total mineral content required
to deploy each unit of a given low-carbon technology, irrespective of where that technology is
manufactured. This approach does not distinguish between domestic production and import,
captures the full mineral requirement associated with India’s deployment targets. This framing
offers a robust proxy for understanding the scale of India’s future mineral footprint, independent
of future uncertainties in domestic manufacturing capacity or import dependence.
Step 2: Technology Variants and Market Share Projections
Within each technology category, specific technology variants (e.g., lithium battery chemistries
such as Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) and Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC)) were identified
based on Technology Readiness Level (TRL), efficiency, and End-of-Life (EOL) characteristics.
Due to data limitations, a heuristic approach was used to project market shares (Annex D):
the assumption is for the share of mature technologies (TRL 8–9) to decline, and of emerging
ones with greater efficiencies (TRL 4–7) to grow over time as they commercialise, scale, and
become cheaper.
Step 3: Estimating Mineral Intensity
Mineral intensity values (in tonnes per unit capacity) were sourced from secondary literature
and applied per technology variant. These intensities are expressed in tonnes per Gigawatt (t/
GW) for generation technologies and tonnes per Gigawatt hour (t/GWh) for storage systems. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 6
Introduction
Electrolyser capacities were inferred from green hydrogen production targets and efficiency
assumptions (See Annex C).
Step 4: Calculating Cumulative Embedded Mineral Demand
The cumulative demand for each critical mineral was computed using annual installation
projections, market share of each variant, and its mineral intensity.
Demand growth reflects both increasing clean-technology deployment and evolving variant
shares, while mineral intensities remain constant. The final Critical Energy Transition Mineral
(CETM) demand estimates were aggregated across all variants and technologies for 2030,
2047, and 2070, offering a long-term outlook on India’s mineral needs.
III. Critical Mineral Supply Assessment
This assessment examines India’s options for securing access to Critical Energy Transition
Minerals (CETMs) through a combination of domestic reserves, international trade, and circular
economy pathways. The study assesses vulnerabilities across key dimensions, including
geopolitical vulnerabilities, market concentration, environmental and social risks in upstream
supply regions, and institutional constraints. The study also identifies critical gaps in R&D for
mineral processing, refining and recycling, the lack of which could constrain India’s ability to
onshore CETM value chains.
Finally, the study also reviews the existing policy ecosystem to determine its adequacy
and highlight gaps and opportunities for strengthening institutional frameworks, innovation
ecosystems, and strategic partnerships.
The Suggestions from this study focus on long-term strategic priorities for de-risking India’s
mineral supply chains, including innovation, circularity, international partnerships, and institutional
strengthening. The aim is to provide a forward-looking policy framework rather than a detailed
roadmap.
Key Limitations
The projections for Critical Energy Transition Minerals in this study should be interpreted as
directional estimates rather than prescriptive forecasts due to the following limitations:
i. Some systems, such as grid infrastructure and embedded electronics, were excluded
due to data and modelling limitations. As a result, the demand estimates presented
here should be interpreted as conservative, representing only a subset of India’s
broader mineral demand landscape for a Net Zero transition
ii. Static mineral intensity assumptions, which may not reflect future technological
improvements
iii. Heuristic assumptions regarding market shares of technology variants.
iv. Exclusion of several energy-sector components and cross-economy mineral uses (e.g.,
copper in electronics and construction), which may increase total demand.
v. Rapid evolution of clean-energy technologies, environmental and social compliance
requirements and global trade and regulatory regimes, all of which may influence
future mineral needs.
These uncertainties should be considered when considering the findings and suggestions of
this study. 2
CRITICAL MINERALS
REQUIRED FOR INDIA’S
NET ZERO TRANSITION Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 8
Critical Minerals
Required for India’s
Net Zero Transition
At the heart of India’s Net Zero ambitions lies a fundamental question: what minerals are
required to power the low-carbon technologies driving this transition, and in what quantities?
This chapter addresses that question by estimating the total critical minerals required to deploy
low-carbon technologies in India through 2070.
Drawing from the broader list of 30 critical minerals identified by the Ministry of Mines, this
chapter identifies the Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) subset most essential to the
energy transition. It maps CETMs to specific technologies, outlines their functional roles, and
highlights materials used across multiple systems. By calculating the long-term, cumulative
requirement of each CETM under Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario, this chapter
provides the foundation for supply-side actions, including risk mitigation, circularity potential,
and policy priorities on critical minerals.
The chapter concludes with a comparative analysis of India’s projected CETM demand against
global estimates, offering insight into India’s potential influence and exposure within international
supply chains.
2.1 EMBEDDED MINERAL REQUIREMENTS BY TECHNOLOGY
2.1.1 Solar
Solar PV technologies are categorised into crystalline silicon (including monocrystalline,
polycrystalline, and heterojunction), thin-film (such as cadmium telluride [CdTe] and copper
indium gallium selenide [CIGS]), and emerging perovskite-based systems (including tandem
and all-perovskite types). Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) systems include parabolic troughs
and solar towers, representing linear and point-focus designs, respectively. In total, the solar
analysis covers 16 critical minerals: silicon, copper, graphite, indium, gallium, tellurium, cadmium,
selenium, tin, titanium, tungsten, germanium, molybdenum, nickel, vanadium and niobium, each
linked to specific sub-technologies depending on its material composition and performance
characteristics.
Market Shares
Market share trajectories strongly shape the mineral demand profile across Current Policy
Scenario and Net Zero Scenario. Table 2.1 provides the market share of a few major technologies
for solar PV and Concentrated Solar Power under both the scenarios. For detailed technological
market share, refer to Annexures D.
2 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 9
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Table 2.1: Market Share of Technologies under Solar PV and Concentrated Solar Power
Technology
Current Policy ScenarioNet Zero Scenario
2030 2050 2070 2030 2050 2070
Solar PV Technology
Monocrystalline
Silicon (mono-Si)
PV
52% 40% 32% 50% 32% 24%
Polycrystalline
Silicon (poly-Si)
PV
27% 19% 17% 28% 12% 5%
Heterojunction
Silicon (HJT) PV
10% 17% 19% 10% 18% 20%
Copper Indium
Gallium Selenide /
(CIGS) Thin-film
PV
3% 7% 12% 5% 11% 16%
Perovskite-based
technologies
0% 11% 13% 0% 14% 22%
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP)
Parabolic troughs 94% 86% 80% 75% 30% 20%
Solar power
towers
6% 14% 20% 25% 70% 80%
As indicated in the Table 2.1, the shifts toward low-silicon PVs and tower-based CSP carry
significant implications for future mineral demand, particularly for thin-film and perovskite
materials that rely on a broader set of specialty minerals.
Mineral Demand
Solar PV and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) show distinct mineral patterns under both
scenarios (see Figures 2.1 and 2.2). Copper and silicon are the most critical minerals for solar PV.
Copper demand grows steadily across both scenarios because nearly all PV sub-technologies
use copper extensively. Under Net Zero Scenario, copper demand sits consistently above
Current Policy Scenario (10% in 2025-30, rising to ~55% in 2031-50, and ~64% in 2051-70). This
is driven by higher overall PV deployment and the continued dominance of crystalline-silicon
families, which have high copper intensity (~4,450-4,600 t/GW). Silicon demand, by contrast,
grows more slowly than copper in both scenarios as market shares shift from mono-Si and
poly-Si toward emerging low-silicon alternatives.
Thin-film and by-product metals see sharper uplifts under Net Zero Scenario, because this
scenario grows CdTe and CIGS shares faster than Current Policy Scenario (e.g., by mid-century
Net Zero Scenario assigns CdTe 9–13% and CIGS 7–14% vs lower shares under Current Policy
Scenario). This drives up demand for materials such as tin, cadmium, molybdenum, indium,
tellurium, and selenium, all of which show similar–shaped growth curves due to shared use
across thin-film PV. Growth in perovskite APT technologies also increases graphite demand
sharply post-2040.
Germanium demand under Net Zero Scenario (NZS) initially dips (~48%) because amorphous-
Si shares decline early and faster in NZS than Current Policy Scenario. However, because NZS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 10
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
has a larger PV base overall due to higher demand electrification, germanium demand rises
again during 2050–70 before eventually phasing out under both scenarios as amorphous-Si is
fully phased out.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Silicon (CPS)
Silicon (NZS)
million tonnes
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Tin (CPS)
Tin (NZS)
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
Tellurium (CPS)
Tellurium (NZS)
Cadmium (CPS)
Cadmium (NZS)
Selenium (CPS)
Selenium (NZS)
Indium (CPS)
Indium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Gallium (CPS)
Gallium (NZS)
Tungsten (CPS)
Tungsten (NZS)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Germanium (CPS)
Germanium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-20302031-20502051-2070
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Silicon (CPS)
Silicon (NZS)
million tonnes
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Tin (CPS)
Tin (NZS)
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
Tellurium (CPS)
Tellurium (NZS)
Cadmium (CPS)
Cadmium (NZS)
Selenium (CPS)
Selenium (NZS)
Indium (CPS)
Indium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
Gallium (CPS)
Gallium (NZS)
Tungsten (CPS)
Tungsten (NZS)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Germanium (CPS)
Germanium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-20302031-20502051-2070
Figure 2.1: Solar PV – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net
Zero Scenario (NZS) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 11
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Gallium, molybdenum, titanium, nickel and tungsten show moderate growth, shaped by their
limited application in thin-film and perovskite variants, emerge from negligible Current Policy
Scenario bases and scale in Net Zero Scenario, yielding ~108–120% in 2031–50 and ~170–185%
in 2051–70.
In Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies, mineral demand is concentrated in copper,
nickel, molybdenum, vanadium, titanium, and niobium. Demand for copper and nickel is
especially significant due to its high intensity of use in both CSP sub-technologies, although
overall copper’s demand trajectory falls and nickel’s increases due to shifting market shares
between parabolic troughs and solar towers. In the Net Zero Scenario, copper, molybdenum,
and titanium demand reduces, due to lowering of parabolic troughs in favour of towers. In
contrast, towers are more nickel-intensive (~1,800 vs ~940 t/GW) and include use of niobium
(~140 t/GW).
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0
Niobium (CPS)
Niobium (NZS)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Vanadium (CPS)
Vanadium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.2: Solar CSP – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and
Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
When viewed together, these findings highlight copper as the most consistently demanded
mineral across both PV and CSP technologies. Silicon stands out as the only mineral whose
rate of demand declines
1
under Net Zero Scenario, reflecting a major shift in the technology
mix. The rise of perovskite PV introduces new material dependencies (nickel, graphite, tungsten,
molybdenum and titanium), reshaping the mineral demand profile of solar deployment.
Although Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) contributes a relatively modest share of total solar-
1 The total installed capacity of solar PV in Net Zero Scenario is almost 1.5 times than the installed capacity in Current
Policy Scenario. However, the demand of silicon per GW in Net Zero Scenario is lower than the demand per GW in
Current Policy Scenario due to technology shift. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 12
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
sector mineral demand, its reliance on materials such as nickel and vanadium suggests emerging
supply risks if CSP deployment expands. Taken as a whole, solar’s mineral requirements are not
only scale-dependent but also highly sensitive to technology transitions, especially under a Net
Zero aligned pathway.
2.1.2 Wind
Wind-turbine mineral requirements are shaped primarily by drivetrain design, making it
essential to understand how gearbox-based and direct-drive systems differ in their material
intensity. This analysis focuses on turbine-level components; therefore, higher mineral intensities
typically associated with offshore wind foundations and subsea infrastructure are not modelled
here. Wind turbines are broadly categorised into two drivetrain configurations: gearbox-based
systems, which use a mechanical gearbox to increase rotor speed before electricity generation,
and direct-drive systems, which eliminate the gearbox and connect the rotor directly to a low-
speed, high-torque generator.
While gearbox-based turbines are currently more prevalent due to their lower capital costs,
direct-drive configurations are gaining traction particularly in offshore and remote settings
owing to superior reliability and reduced maintenance needs. Direct-drive systems, however,
rely more heavily on rare earth permanent magnets containing neodymium, praseodymium,
dysprosium, and terbium. This section examines turbine-level mineral requirements across copper,
nickel, molybdenum, neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and yttrium. The Table
2.2 shows differences across Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario in technology
configuration, for a few major technologies for wind on-shore and wind off-shore. For detailed
technological market share, refer to Annex D.
Table 2.2: Market Share of Technologies under On-Shore Wind and Off-Shore Wind
2
Technology
Current Policy ScenarioNet Zero Scenario
2030 2050 2070 2030 2050 2070
Onshore wind
GB-HS-
PMSG (GB
HS PMG)
37% 41% 45% 43% 45% 45%
GB-DFIG 22% 11% 5% 7% 0% 0%
DD-EESG 32% 35% 37% 24% 27% 28%
DD-PMSG 8% 11% 12% 25% 28% 28%
Offshore wind
GB-SCIG 57% 50% 45% 5% 4% 3%
DD-PMSG 31% 26% 24% 82% 87% 88%
GB-MS PMG 12% 13% 14% 12% 10% 9%
As drivetrain preferences evolve, so will the distribution of mineral demand. Increasing adoption
of permanent-magnet machines, especially in Net Zero Scenario, amplifies dependence on
2 DD – Direct Drive; DFIG – Doubly Fed Induction Generator; EESG - Electrically Excited Synchronous Generator; GB
-Gearbox; HS – High Speed; MS – Medium Speed; PMG – Permanent Magnet Generator; PMSG – Permanent Magnet
Synchronous Generator; SCIG – Squirrel Cage Induction Generator Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 13
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
copper and rare earth elements, highlighting the need for proactive supply-chain and materials-
strategy planning.
Mineral Demand
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
million tonnes
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
Neodymium (CPS)
Neodymium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
051015202530
Praseodymium (CPS)
Praseodymium (NZS)
Dysprosium (CPS)
Dysprosium (NZS)
Terbium (CPS)
Terbium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.3: Onshore Wind – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario (CPS)
and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Onshore wind is the primary driver of mineral demand in the near term. Under Net Zero
Scenario (NZS), mineral requirements for onshore wind are consistently higher than Current
Policy Scenario (CPS) due to greater capacity additions and a larger share of permanent-
magnet machines (see Figure 2.3). Copper shows the highest increase, approximately 62%,
34% and 36% above CPS across the three periods, reflecting its widespread use in wiring,
generators and power systems. Nickel and molybdenum, used in high-strength steel components,
contribute steadily to overall demand. The sharpest increases appear in rare-earth elements,
namely neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium driven by the expanding use
of Neodymium Iron Boron (NdFeB) magnets in Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generators
(PMSGs).
Offshore wind shows broadly similar mineral demand patterns, though absolute volumes remain
lower due to smaller cumulative deployment (see Figure 2.4). Rare-earth demand rises strongly
because DD-PMSG
3
configurations are Rare Earth Element (REE)-intensive. Net Zero Scenario
premia for these minerals grow sharply from mid- to late-century (e.g., praseodymium at ~159%,
3 Direct Drive-Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 14
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
201%, 325%), while Yttrium, required for Direct Drive High-Temperature Superconducting (DD-
HTS) machines, albeit at very low volume, is absent due to the phase-out assumed in the Net
Zero Scenario.
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0102030405060
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Neodymium (CPS)
Neodymium (NZS)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
Praseodymium (CPS)
Praseodymium (NZS)
Dysprosium (CPS)
Dysprosium (NZS)
Terbium (CPS)
Terbium (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Yttrium (CPS)
tonnes
2025-20302031-20502051-2070
Figure 2.4: Offshore Wind – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario (CPS)
and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Overall, mineral demand in wind energy is shaped primarily by capacity-addition trajectories and
drivetrain market-share shifts. Copper and nickel consistently lead the total volumes, followed
by rare earths used in direct-drive systems. Unlike solar, wind technologies experience fewer
disruptive transitions; however, their continued reliance on imported REEs remains a critical
supply risk, reinforcing the need for diversification, material substitution and long-term sourcing
strategies.
2.1.3 Battery Energy Grid Storage Systems
The mineral requirements of Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) reflect the diversity of
storage chemistries from lithium-ion systems to emerging sodium and flow batteries, each with
its own critical-material profile. This analysis, thus, considers a wide range of BESS technologies,
including lithium-ion chemistries (such as Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC), Lithium Iron
Phosphate (LFP), and Lithium Titanate Oxide (LTO)), flow batteries (e.g. vanadium redox), Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 15
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
solid-state batteries (SSBs), sodium-ion and bromine, zinc- and sulphur-based systems. The
assessment tracks seven key critical minerals: graphite, lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, vanadium,
and phosphorous. While lithium-ion variants dominate in diversity and application (e.g., LFP),
individual chemistries differ significantly in their reliance on critical minerals. For instance, NMC
batteries are nickel- and cobalt-intensive, LFP avoids both entirely, and SSBs offer the potential
to reduce graphite use.
The market-share trajectory reflects these characteristics and is identical for Current Policy
Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS). Table 2.3 shows the market share for a few major
technologies under BESS. For detailed technological market share, refer Annex D.
The shares of Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) 811, 622, and 523 decline from 2% each
in 2025 to 0% by 2035.
Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)’s share, meanwhile, decreases from 90% in 2025 to 46%
in 2070.
Lithium titanate chemistry goes from 0 to only 5.7% between 2025 and 2070.
Na-ion chemistries share increases from 1% in 2025 to 22% in 2070, while vanadium
redox flow batteries expand from 1% to 4% over the same period.
Collectively, these trends indicate a more diversified future battery market, with mineral demand
spread across a wider range of chemistries, underscoring the need for parallel development of
multiple critical mineral supply chains.
Table 2.3: Market Share of Technologies under Battery Energy Storage Systems
Technology203020502070
Lithium Iron Phosphate86.0%65.8%46.1%
Lithium Titanate0.9%3.3%5.7%
Sodium Iron Phosphate
(NaFePO₄)
1.0%3.0%4.4%
Prussian Blue Analogues
(Na₂Fe[Fe(CN)₆])
1.0%3.0%4.4%
NASICON (Na₃V₂(PO₄)₃1.0%3.0%4.4%
Layered Sodium Manganese
Oxide (NaMnO₂)
1.0%3.0%4.4%
Sodium Nickel Manganese Cobalt1.0%3.0%4.4%
Vanadium Redox Flow Battery1.5%2.7%4.0% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 16
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
Phosphorous (CPS)
Phosphorous (NZS)
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Vanadium (CPS)
Vanadium (NZS)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Lithium (CPS)
Lithium (NZS)
million tonnes
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.5: Stationary Battery Energy Storage – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current
Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Mineral Demand
BESS-related mineral demand rises sharply under Net Zero Scenario (NZS), largely due to
higher installed storage capacity to support higher Renewable Penetration (see Figure 2.5). This
yields a broad NZS rise of 4.7 times in 2025-230 and moderating to roughly 2.3 times in 2031-
2070 as compared to CPS. Across both scenarios, the primary demand drivers are graphite,
phosphorus and copper. Owing to their use across a wide range of chemistries, graphite and
copper remain consistently high in demand throughout. Phosphorus and lithium also show
steady demand due to the strong presence of Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) chemistries.
Vanadium demand increases from the 2030s onward as deployment of vanadium redox flow
batteries accelerates, reaching around +146% above Current Policy Scenario (CPS) in 2051–70.
Nickel maintains demand across all periods even as Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt (Li-NMC)
chemistries are phased out, due to the emergence of nickel-bearing sodium-ion chemistries.
Titanium and cobalt record the lowest demand for Battery Energy Storage System (BESS),
reflecting the niche application of Lithium Titanate Oxide (LTO) and the progressive reduction
of cobalt intensity across battery chemistries.
A notable caveat is the possibility that lithium demand for BESS may reduce significantly
after 2040 if sodium-ferrous-phosphate chemistries mature faster than assumed in this study,
particularly if they begin to displace their lithium-equivalent Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
chemistries due to comparable cost advantages. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 17
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
2.1.4 Hydrogen Electrolyser
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
million tonnes
020406080100120
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Zirconium (CPS)
Zirconium (NZS)
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
Silicon (CPS)
Silicon (NZS)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Iridium (CPS)
Iridium (NZS)
Lanthanum (CPS)
Lanthanum (NZS)
Platinum (CPS)
Platinum (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Yttrium (CPS)
Yttrium (NZS)
Strontium (CPS)
Strontium (NZS)
Cerium (CPS)
Cerium (NZS)
Gadolinium (CPS)
Gadolinium (NZS)
tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.2
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
million tonnes
020406080100120
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Zirconium (CPS)
Zirconium (NZS)
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
Silicon (CPS)
Silicon (NZS)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Iridium (CPS)
Iridium (NZS)
Lanthanum (CPS)
Lanthanum (NZS)
Platinum (CPS)
Platinum (NZS)
kilo tonnes
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Yttrium (CPS)
Yttrium (NZS)
Strontium (CPS)
Strontium (NZS)
Cerium (CPS)
Cerium (NZS)
Gadolinium (CPS)
Gadolinium (NZS)
tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.6: Hydrogen Electrolyser – Embedded Mineral Requirements under Current Policy Scenario
(CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
The total projected demand for Green Hydrogen is given in Table 1.1. Three key electrolyser
technologies have been considered for this analysis: Alkaline Electrolysers (AEL), Proton
Exchange Membrane Electrolysers (PEMEL), and Solid Oxide Electrolysers (SOEL). AELs, Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 18
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
the most commercially mature (TRL 8–9), depend heavily on nickel, copper, zirconium, and
graphite, with minor cobalt use. PEMELs, also at high readiness levels, require copper, graphite,
silicon, and trace quantities of platinum-group metals such as iridium and platinum. SOELs, with
lower maturity (TRL 5–6), use a broader and more diverse range of minerals, including nickel,
zirconium, silicon, titanium, lanthanum, cerium, strontium, yttrium, and gadolinium. The market
share trajectory reflects these characteristics and is identical for Current Policy Scenario (CPS)
and Net Zero Scenario (NZS).
Alkaline Electrolyser (AEL) dominates at 65% in 2025, and is projected to decline to
45% by 2050 and 25% by 2070
Proton Exchange Membrane (PEMEL) increases from 23% in 2025 to 30% by 2050
and 34% in 2070.
Solid Oxide Electrolyser (SOEL), which grows from just 10% in 2030 to 25% by 2050
and 41% by 2070, becoming the leading electrolyser type by the end of the projection
period.
This shift implies a gradual move away from technologies reliant on PGMs and cobalt toward
those requiring a broader set of critical minerals, especially rare earths and refractory metals,
highlighting the increasing complexity of mineral demand linked to green hydrogen production.
Mineral Demand
Electrolyser-related mineral demand scales steeply under Net Zero Scenario (NZS), driven
initially by rapid increases in installed capacity and later by changes in technology shares. Across
both scenarios, nickel records the highest overall demand due to its central role as a catalyst
and electrode material in AEL and SOEL. Copper, zirconium and graphite follow, with varying
intensities across electrolyser types. Precious-metal catalysts (iridium, platinum) and titanium
see a mid-period spike (around +190%) as PEMEL’s share increases (Iridium ~1.4; Platinum ~0.19;
Titanium ~1.05 t/GW), before declining as SOEL deployment accelerates after 2050.
As AEL and PEMEL shares fall and SOEL expands, demand for minerals such as silicon, titanium,
lanthanum, cerium, strontium, yttrium and gadolinium becomes more stable and grows over
the long term. SOEL’s material profile (Silicon ~14.1; Titanium ~6.5; Lanthanum ~1.29; Strontium
~0.038; Cerium ~0.019; Yttrium ~0.063 t/GW) sustains late-century Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
demand uplifts of roughly +108–110% for silicon, titanium and the lanthanides.
2.1.5 Electric Vehicle Motors
EVs primarily use either induction motors or Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (PMSMs).
Among these, PMSMs dominate due to their high torque-to-weight ratio and superior efficiency,
with their market share projected to exceed 90% in the coming years (Gauß et al., 2021). These
motors commonly rely on neodymium and dysprosium (Dy), used in NdFeB (neodymium-iron-
boron) permanent magnets, with each motor typically requiring 0.5 to 1.2 kg of REEs. Copper
is also extensively used in stator windings and electrical interconnects (European Commission,
2020).
Alternative motor types such as Switched Reluctance Motors (SRMs) offer the possibility of
avoiding rare earths altogether. However, they often involve trade-offs in terms of acoustic
performance, efficiency, and control complexity. In the Indian context, where magnet production Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 19
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
is largely import-dependent, any shift in motor designs could significantly impact rare earth
demand forecasts. There is growing global R&D interest in replacing NdFeB magnets with
ferrite or iron-nitride magnets, particularly in China and South Korea, which are scaling domestic
production of non-REE-based motors (Alves et al., 2020).
Mineral Demand
Traction motor materials scale with deeper electrification under Net Zero Scenario (NZS) and
continued preference for permanent-magnet traction in two-, three-, and four-wheelers. Copper
demand increases steadily under both scenarios, with NZS significantly outpacing Current
Policy Scenario (CPS) from 2030 onward (see Figure 2.7). By 2070, cumulative copper demand
under NZS reaches nearly 4.4 million tonnes, ~40% higher than under CPS, reflecting greater
electrification across vehicle segments and more aggressive EV adoption.
By 2070, cumulative demand under the NZS is projected to exceed 250 kilo tonnes for
neodymium and nearly 127 kilo tonnes for dysprosium, primarily due to widespread use of
PMSMs in four-wheelers and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (HDVs). Demand for cobalt, used in specialised
magnetic alloys for certain motor designs, also increases under NZS compared to CPS.
Segment-wise, four-wheelers and HDVs are projected to account for the largest share of
motor-related mineral demand after 2030, driven by higher power requirements and increased
adoption of high-efficiency drivetrains. Two- and three-wheelers, though dominant in early
volumes, contribute less intensively to copper and REE demand due to lower motor power
ratings. Overall, NZS sits 2.2 times higher than CPS in 2025–30, moderating to 1.4 times in
2031–70 as overall EV uptake, rather than major design mix shifts, becomes the principal driver
of demand. 012345
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
million tonnes
050100150200250300
Neodymium (CPS)
Neodymium (NZS)
Dysprosium (CPS)
Dysprosium (NZS)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
kilo tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.7: EV Motors – Embedded Mineral Requirements Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 20
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
2.1.6 Electric Vehicle Batteries
Lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) currently dominate electric vehicle battery technology and rely
heavily on critical minerals, particularly in the cathode and anode compositions. The cathode
chemistry is typically defined by the proportion of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, and
aluminium, each influencing performance, cost, and supply risks. Examples of common cathode
chemistries include:
NMC 111 (Lithium–Nickel–Manganese–Cobalt Oxide): A balanced formulation with
moderate energy density and a cobalt content of ~20% by weight.
NMC 622 and NMC 811: Higher in nickel (up to ~80%) and significantly lower in cobalt
(<10%), resulting in higher energy density and lower cost.
LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate): A cobalt- and nickel-free alternative that uses lithium
and phosphate, which is safer and more thermally stable, though lower in energy
density.
The anode is typically composed of graphite, with a material intensity of ~0.8–1.2 kg per kWh
of battery capacity. Silicon-rich and lithium-metal anodes are under development to reduce
dependence on graphite while increasing energy density.
Electrolytes consist of lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF₆) dissolved in organic solvents.
All Solid-State Batteries (ASSBs) replace liquid electrolytes with ceramic or polymer-based
conductors, offering improved safety, durability, and greater thermal stability while potentially
reducing reliance on graphite in anodes.
The Battery Management System (BMS) incorporates electronics-grade copper and trace metals
like tantalum and silver used in circuitry and control systems. Copper also serves as a current
collector.
The market-share trajectory reflects continued advances in battery technology and remains the
same under CPS and NZS.
Across all EV categories, cobalt- and nickel-heavy chemistries decline over time and
give way to more mineral-efficient alternatives.
NMC 111 and NMC 532, both higher in cobalt, are phased out completely by 2040.
NMC 622 also declines, while NMC 811, a high-nickel, low-cobalt chemistry becomes
dominant in two, three and four-wheelers, reaching a 67% share by 2040 and remaining
stable thereafter.
LFP gradually expands, particularly in commercial vehicles, where it consistently
accounts for 80–90% of demand.
ASSBs enter the market from 2035, reaching ~14–15% of market share by 2070,
reflecting their potential to reduce dependence on graphite and liquid electrolytes.
Table 2.4 shows the market share for a few major battery technologies under different vehicle
segments. For detailed technological market share, refer Annex D. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 21
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Table 2.4: Market Share of Battery Technologies under Electric Vehicles’ Different
Categories
Vehicle Category Battery Type 2030 2050 2070
2-W & 3-W
NMC 81163%67% 67%
LFP8%11% 15%
ASSB0%14% 14%
4-W
NMC 81122%14% 4.4%
LFP50%74% 3%
ASSB0%12% 63%
Others
NMC 62210%10% 5%
LFP90%80% 80%
ASSB0%10% 15%
This transition in battery chemistry steadily alters the mineral-demand profile. Reduced use of
cobalt-intensive chemistries, alongside the growth of LFP and ASSBs, points toward a long-
term decrease in reliance on high-risk materials such as cobalt and a gradually more diverse
set of mineral inputs driven by new battery technologies.
Mineral Demand
Battery-related mineral demand is consistently higher under Net Zero Scenario (NZS) across
the full modelling horizon, with chemistry shifts shaping the relative gaps between scenarios
(see Figure 2.8). Graphite remains the most consumed mineral by volume, reaching 42 Mt under
NZS by 2070, around 43% higher than Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and rising by roughly
+124%, +42% and +43% across the three periods. Phosphorus (P) follows a similar growth
pattern, reaching ~15 Mt by 2070 under NZS, again ~44% higher than CPS. These trends reflect
strong LFP adoption in 4-wheelers through mid-century (~58%, then ~74%) and the continued
role of lithium- and sodium-phosphate chemistries thereafter.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Phosphorous (CPS)
Phosphorous (NZS)
Lithium (CPS)
Lithium (NZS)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
million tonnes
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Figure 2.8: EV Batteries – Embedded Mineral Requirements Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 22
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Nickel and cobalt show the largest NZS early uplift, about +97% and +101% respectively in 2030,
before moderating to around +35% and +39% in 2051–70 as 4-wheelers further transition to
LFP and then increasingly to ASSB (which reaches ~34% in late-century 4-wheelers). By 2070,
cumulative nickel demand reaches ~8.8 Mt under NZS (~36% above CPS), while cumulative
cobalt demand reaches ~1.4 Mt (~40% above CPS).
Lithium shows greater demand growth early under NZS +122% in 2025–30), moderating to +42%
and +41% in subsequent periods, reflecting its presence across almost all major chemistries. By
2070, cumulative lithium demand reaches ~5 Mt under NZS, ~42% above CPS.
Copper demand associated with EV batteries is also significant, totalling over 19 Mt under NZS
by 2070 about 42% higher than CPS owing to its widespread use in current collectors, electrical
connections, and the broader EV architecture.
Overall, battery-related mineral demand is shaped by chemistry evolution, increasing battery
size, and the pace of electrification across vehicle segments. Two- and three-wheelers dominate
initial volumes, while four-wheelers and heavy-duty vehicles contribute the most mineral-
intensive battery requirements after 2030. Under NZS, cumulative mineral demand for EV
batteries is projected to be about 40% higher than CPS, driven by more rapid uptake and
greater fleet-wide electrification.
2.2 CUMULATIVE DOMESTIC DEMAND FOR CETMS
Understanding how mineral needs accumulate over the next five decades is essential for
anticipating supply gaps and investment priorities. This section synthesises projected cumulative
demand for CETMs from 2025 to 2070 under Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero
Scenario (NZS). Under NZS, India requires an estimated ~169 Mt of CETMs, about 51% more
than CPS (~112 Mt). Drawing on demand projections from solar, wind, batteries, electrolysers and
EVs, the analysis examines temporal patterns, scenario differences and the relative contributions
of each technology.
Top Demand Drivers
Copper and graphite emerge as the CETMs with the highest cumulative demand by 2070,
at roughly 66 Mt and 46.4 Mt, respectively, under Net Zero Scenario. Copper’s dominance
reflects its widespread application across solar PV, wind turbines, EV batteries, EV motors, and
electrolysers. Graphite demand arises almost entirely from battery anodes, with more than 95%
sourced from EV and Battery Energy Storage Systems. Silicon follows at ~19 Mt, driven mainly
by solar PV deployment. Phosphorus demand reaches ~16.6 Mt, reflecting its critical role in LFP
batteries in both EVs and BESS.
Nickel also stands out at ~11 Mt due to its applications in EV batteries, BESS, wind turbines
and electrolysers. Other high-volume CETMs include lithium at ~5.4 Mt, cobalt at ~1.4 Mt, and
vanadium at ~0.7 Mt, all tied primarily to battery technologies. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 23
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Technology-Specific Mineral Dependencies
While many critical minerals are required across multiple Low-Carbon Technologies (LCTs),
many display highly concentrated demand profiles tied to specific applications. A noteworthy
subset of minerals, including neodymium, molybdenum, dysprosium, titanium and tin, also
exhibit scale of demand above 0.1 Mt and 1 Mt.
Wind energy and EVs are the exclusive drivers of demand for neodymium,
praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium (rare earth elements essential for permanent
magnets in turbine generators and EV motors).
Solar-exclusive minerals include gallium, tellurium, selenium, and germanium, many of
which are essential for advanced PV technologies, exposing vulnerabilities in supply
chains.
Electrolyser-dominant minerals such as iridium, platinum, strontium, and gadolinium
in contrast are low-volume, vital for green hydrogen production, and geopolitically
sensitive due to supply concentration.
A long-tail of minerals including strontium, gadolinium (REE), germanium, and yttrium
has relatively low overall demand but may prove crucial for specialised applications
and future innovations, warranting strategic attention.
Temporal Distribution
Demand for Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) is heavily backloaded. Under Net Zero
Scenario, only ~2% of cumulative demand occurs in 2025–2030, ~32% in 2030–2050, and ~66%
in 2050–2070. This means that two-thirds of total CETM requirements materialise after 2050.
Some outliers deviate from the general pattern. Silicon, for example, reaches 4.7% of its
total demand by 2030 and ~34% by 2050 due to early front-loaded PV deployment, after
which demand slows as non-silicon PV shares rise. Minerals such as zirconium, germanium,
and molybdenum show higher early-to-mid-century demand due to their roles in electrolysers
and PV. Conversely, minerals such as vanadium, titanium, selenium, indium, gallium, tungsten,
niobium, lanthanum, yttrium, strontium, cerium, and gadolinium accumulate more than 75% of
their demand after 2050.
Technology-Wise Contribution
The technology-wise distribution of cumulative Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM)
demand under Net Zero Scenario shows clear concentration patterns (see Figures 2.9a and
2.9b - graphs are split in two for readers ease):
EV batteries dominate, accounting for ~55% of total demand, with substantial shares
of lithium, phosphorous, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and copper.
Solar technologies follow with ~30% of total demand, particularly for copper and
silicon, and smaller volumes of tin, indium, tellurium, and selenium.
Wind energy contributes ~6%, driven primarily by REEs and copper.
Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) accounts for ~5%, driven by graphite, nickel,
cobalt, vanadium, and copper.
Electrolysers contribute only <1%, but still demand a diverse mix of CETMs including
iridium, platinum, zirconium, and lanthanum. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 24
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
EV motors contribute ~3%, concentrated in Rare Earth Elements (REEs) (neodymium,
dysprosium, praseodymium, terbium, and yttrium), alongside copper.
783,401
1,454,118
5,468,664
11,543,688
16,689,150
19,538,259
46,489,124
66,069,466
41.03%
70.59%
65.69%
56.12%
62.98%
74.23%
67.50%
66.44%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Vanadium (CPS)
Vanadium (NZS)
Vanadium (Tech)
Cobalt (CPS)
Cobalt (NZS)
Cobalt (Tech)
Lithium (CPS)
Lithium (NZS)
Lithium (Tech)
Nickel (CPS)
Nickel (NZS)
Nickel (Tech)
Phosphorous (CPS)
Phosphorous (NZS)
Phosphorous (Tech)
Silicon (CPS)
Silicon (NZS)
Silicon (Tech)
Graphite (CPS)
Graphite (NZS)
Graphite (Tech)
Copper (CPS)
Copper (NZS)
Copper (Tech)
P
SolarWindBESSElectrolysersNZS 2025-30NZS 2030-50NZS 2050-70
EV Batteries EV MotorsCPS 2025-70 (% of NZS 2025-70)
47,787
50,450
52,468
118,845
124,052
150,003
273,855
482,485
42.59%
33.82%
33.82%
34.42%
40.93%
66.65%
74.75%
58.18%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Zirconium (CPS)
Zirconium (NZS)
Zirconium (Tech)
Cadmium (CPS)
Cadmium (NZS)
Cadmium (Tech)
Tellurium (CPS)
Tellurium (NZS)
Tellurium (Tech)
Tin (CPS)
Tin (NZS)
Tin (Tech)
Titanium (CPS)
Titanium (NZS)
Titanium (Tech)
Dysprosium (CPS)
Dysprosium (NZS)
Dysprosium (Tech)
Molybdenum (CPS)
Molybdenum (NZS)
Molybdenum (Tech)
Neodymium (CPS)
Neodymium (NZS)
Neodymium (Tech)
Figure 2.9a: Cumulative Mineral Demand in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) & Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
(Interpretation of graph - Bar 1: Share across different technologies under NZS; Bar 2: Share across
different time horizons under NZS; Bar 3: Proportion in CPS relative to the NZS;
Secondary y-axis: – Total demand under the NZS (Tonnes) and percentage in CPS relative to NZS) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 25
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
1,853
1,871
4,041
4,268
6,162
20,636
29,743
37,342
89.79%
20.15%
38.78%
38.92%
36.21%
38.50%
35.03%
38.92%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Germanium (CPS)
Germanium (NZS)
Germanium (Tech)
Niobium (CPS)
Niobium (NZS)
Niobium (Tech)
Tungsten (CPS)
Tungsten (NZS)
Tungsten (Tech)
Gallium (CPS)
Gallium (NZS)
Gallium (Tech)
Terbium (CPS)
Terbium (NZS)
Terbium (Tech)
Indium (CPS)
Indium (NZS)
Indium (Tech)
Praseodymium (CPS)
Praseodymium (NZS)
raseodymium (Tech)
Selenium (CPS)
Selenium (NZS)
Selenium (Tech)
G
L
1
2
4
7
36
144
263
44.97%
44.97%
44.97%
95.51%
44.03%
44.97%
44.03%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%100%
Gadolinium (CPS)
Gadolinium (NZS)
adolinium (Tech)
Cerium (CPS)
Cerium (NZS)
Cerium (Tech)
Strontium (CPS)
Strontium (NZS)
Strontium (Tech)
Yttrium (CPS)
Yttrium (NZS)
Yttrium (Tech)
Platinum (CPS)
Platinum (NZS)
Platinum (Tech)
Lanthanum (CPS)
Lanthanum (NZS)
anthanum (Tech)
Iridium (CPS)
Iridium (NZS)
Iridium (Tech)
SolarWindBESSElectrolysersNZS 2025-30NZS 2030-50NZS 2050-70
EV Batteries EV MotorsCPS 2025-70 (% of NZS 2025-70)
Figure 2.9b: Cumulative Mineral Demand in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) & Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
(Interpretation of graph - Bar 1: Share across different technologies under NZS; Bar 2: Share across
different time horizons under NZS; Bar 3: Proportion in CPS relative to the NZS;
Secondary y-axis: – Total demand under the NZS (Tonnes) and percentage in CPS relative to NZS) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 26
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
The detailed information about Critical Energy Transition mineral requirement under Current
Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS) is provided in Annex E.
Mineral-diversity patterns matter for risk. Lower diversity (e.g., graphite–lithium–nickel for EVs and
BESS; Nd–Pr–Dy–Tb for wind) heightens supply exposure, whereas higher diversity complicates
procurement, standardisation and recycling. Among the LETs studied, mineral diversity varies
by system class: among end-use systems, EVs draw on the fewest CETMs (~9 across batteries
and traction motors); among grid infrastructure, BESS uses ~8, wind relies on ~8, solar (PV +
CSP) spans ~16; and hydrogen electrolysers (AEL/PEMEL/SOEL) involve ~14.
Together, these trends highlight the breadth and depth of mineral dependencies across India’s
clean-energy transition and underscore the need for diversified, long-term supply strategies.
2.3 INDIA’S CETM DEMAND IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT (2050)
This section places India’s projected Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) demand in a
global context. This provides a clearer picture of the country’s role in international mineral value
chains.
Understanding this comparison serves four strategic purposes:
1. It identifies Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) where India’s projected demand
could justify localisation of value chains, including mining, refining, and recycling.
2. It clarifies where India may, or may not, have the leverage to shape global prices,
production volumes, or trade dynamics.
3. It informs procurement strategies for minerals with limited domestic demand,
particularly where leveraging strategic international partnerships may be preferred.
4. The analysis also highlights the potential for Indian public and private entities to invest
in global supply chains.
Even where domestic demand may not support full value chain development, overseas
investments, aligned with global demand trends, could deliver strategic and commercial benefits.
Instruments such as KABIL and India’s participation in plurilateral platforms like the Minerals
Security Partnership (MSP) can help operationalise this strategy.
Methodology
This assessment compares the projected CETM demand in 2050 with global demand projections
published in the Global Demand Outlook (2025) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Both
datasets focus on mineral requirements for clean energy technologies such as batteries, solar
PV, wind turbines, and electric vehicles in a Net Zero pathway.
Of the 37 CETMs tracked by the IEA and 31 tracked by this study, 27 minerals are common to
both. IEA reports Platinum Group Elements (PGEs) as a single group “Platinum Group Metals
(excluding iridium)”, whereas this study treats iridium and platinum separately and therefore
compares platinum demand with IEA’s PGMs (excluding iridium) demand. Only phosphorous,
cerium (used in nickel-metal hydride batteries), gadolinium and strontium (both used in solid-
oxide electrolysers) fall outside the common list. All 27 common minerals were retained for
comparison. Eventually, a small subset of thin-film PV-linked minerals (cadmium, indium, Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 27
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
tellurium, tin, selenium, tungsten, and germanium), iridium and dysprosium were excluded due
to their relatively low requirements and high sensitivity to technology pathway assumptions.
The share of global demand was calculated as the ratio of India’s 2050 demand to IEA’s global
projections for each mineral. These results are visualised in Figure 2.10.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Copper
Graphite
Silicon
Nickel
Lithium
Cobalt
Vanadium
Neodymium
Molybdenum
Titanium
Zirconium
Praseodymium
Terbium
Gallium
Niobium
Lanthanum
PGMs
Yttrium
India (%) Global (%)
Figure 2.10: India's CETM Demand as S hare of G lobal Demand in Net Zero Scenario (2050)
Analysis of Relative Shares
India’s projected Critical Energy Transition Minerals demand in 2050 under NZS constitutes an
average 9% of global demand. Three broad patterns emerge, driven by differences in technology
mix, deployment scale, and material-intensity assumptions.
1. Minerals with Mid-Tier Shares (10–15%): Three Critical Energy Transition Minerals fall in this
range:
Silicon –12.5%
Neodymium –12.4%
Graphite –10.5%
These reflect India’s strong build-out in PV (silicon), batteries (graphite), and sustained use of
permanent magnets (Nd). Their elevated shares reinforce the importance of domestic processing
and recycling strategies.
2. Minerals with Low-to-Mid Relative Shares (3–10%): Nine Critical Energy Transition Minerals
fall within this range
Copper – 9.8%
Zirconium – 9.5%
Cobalt – 8.0% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 28
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
Terbium – 5.8%
Titanium – 5.7%
Lithium – 5.7%
Molybdenum – 5.4%
Nickel – 4.5%
Praseodymium – 4.9%
These support EV/BESS growth (Ni, Li, Co, Ti), wind/PV structures and alloys (Mo), REE magnets
(Pr, Tb), and electrolysers (Zr). They warrant scalable domestic processing and recycling capacity
without the concentration risks seen in the high-share group.
3. Trace Demand Minerals (<3%): India’s demand for the following Critical Energy Transition
Minerals accounts for less than 3% of global totals:
Lanthanum – 2.44%
Vanadium – 1.5%
Gallium – 0.95%
PGMs – 0.82%
Niobium – 0.54%
Yttrium – 0.33%
These minerals are typically used in specialised applications, high-performance alloys and
coatings in advanced electrolysers (Lanthanum, PGMs, Yttrium), battery storage (Vanadium),
PV and Concentrated Solar Power (Gallium, Niobium) and motors in wind turbines (Yttrium).
These are less prominent in India’s current energy mix, but may grow in importance under
future industrial decarbonisation scenarios and warrant close monitoring.
2.4 KEY TAKEAWAYS
This study identifies 31 of the 51 tracked elements (corresponds to 23 of the 30 critical minerals
listed by the Ministry of Mines) as Critical Energy Transition Minerals essential for India’s Net
Zero pathway. The list spans bulk-use base metals, eight rare earth elements (lanthanum, cerium,
neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, gadolinium, and yttrium), and two platinum
group elements (platinum and iridium). Together, they highlight the diversity of materials needed
to support the scale and diversity of India’s low-carbon technology deployment.
Functional Categories of Mineral Demand
The projected mineral requirements reveal distinct functional clusters across clean energy
technologies:
1. Bulk-use base metals such as copper and nickel underpin multiple technologies, EV
batteries, motors, solar systems, and storage and form the structural backbone of the
transition. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 29
Critical Minerals Required for India’s Net Zero Transition
2. Storage-critical minerals like graphite, lithium, phosphorous, cobalt, and vanadium
anchor battery chemistries. Their limited substitution potential and sourcing challenges
must be addressed early to avoid downstream disruptions in EVs and grid-scale storage.
3. Rare earth elements, notably neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and
yttrium, are indispensable for high-performance permanent magnets in EV motors
and wind turbines. These are low-volume but high-criticality materials, often tied to
geographically concentrated supply chains, with limited alternatives.
4. PV-specific minerals present a dual challenge: while dominated by bulk silicon demand,
they also depend on niche and high-risk minerals like gallium, tellurium, selenium, and
germanium, often sourced from geopolitically sensitive regions.
5. Electrolyser-specific minerals like iridium, platinum, zirconium, and strontium, though
low in volume, are crucial for green hydrogen production and are constrained by high
cost and limited global availability.
Demand by Technology
Across low-carbon technologies, EVs generate the largest share of Critical Energy Transition
Mineral (CETM) demand, accounting for ~55% of the total. Solar technologies contribute ~30%.
Wind (~6%) and BESS (~5%) together represent ~11%, followed by EV motors (~3%). Electrolysers
account for <1%.
These patterns underscore the distinct material footprints of each technology class. EV batteries
and BESS drive high demand for graphite, lithium, nickel, phosphorous, cobalt, and vanadium,
requiring targeted strategies to secure supply. EV motors and wind technologies depend heavily
on neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium materials that must be prioritised for
India’s domestic manufacturing ambitions. Solar technologies, while dominated by silicon, rely
on strategic minerals such as gallium, germanium, and tellurium, exposing vulnerabilities in
upstream supply chains. Electrolysers, although contributing a modest share, depend on scarce
elements such as platinum, iridium, and select rare earths.
Temporal Distribution of Demand
A key finding is that over 66% of cumulative Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) demand
will materialise after 2050. This underscores both the urgency and the opportunity: early action
to secure supply chains, investing in recycling, and strengthening domestic capability can yield
long-term resilience and strategic advantage.
India in the Global Context
India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) demand in 2050 accounts for <~10% of global
demand for most minerals, limiting its ability to influence global pricing, investment flows, and
production decisions. Supply security will therefore depend on proactive strategies, including
long-term offtake agreements, diversified international partnerships, and strengthened mineral
diplomacy.
Yet the absolute volumes involved remain significant. Projected requirements of more than 20
Mt of copper and 14 Mt of graphite by 2050 justify substantial investment in domestic mining,
processing, and recycling, even in the absence of global market leverage. 3
SUPPLY CHAIN
RISKS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 32
3
Supply Chain Risks
The criticality of minerals is generally estimated by gauging their economic importance and
supply risks. Economic importance reflects the share of gross value-added in the manufacturing
sector that could be disrupted if a mineral becomes unavailable. Supply risk captures the
combined impact of geographic concentration in extraction and processing, and the quality of
governance in major supplier countries. Higher concentration and weaker governance increase
exposure to disruptions. Supply risk is further amplified when minerals lack viable substitutes,
when a country has high import dependence, and when domestic recycling capacity is limited.
This section employs a multi-pronged methodology to assess supply chain risks associated
with Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs). First, it compares projected cumulative
mineral demand (2025–2070) with India’s known reserves, resource base, and current levels
of import dependence to identify material-specific supply gaps. Second, domestic production
and processing capacities are evaluated to assess the readiness of India’s mineral value chain,
including gaps in extraction technologies, refining infrastructure, and recycling capabilities.
Third, trade exposure is analysed against geopolitical risks in key supplier countries to highlight
high-risk materials and suppliers that warrant strategic attention. Finally, it reviews global critical
mineral supply chains’ weaknesses, drawing on secondary evidence from international trade
publications, academic literature, industry reports, and government databases, focusing on
trends over the past decade.
3.1 OVERVIEW OF CETM DEMAND, DOMESTIC RESOURCES AND
RESERVES, AND IMPORT DEPENDENCE
Understanding India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) supply landscape requires
examining projected demand alongside domestic resource availability, reserve status, and
current import dependence. Table 3.1 compares cumulative embedded mineral demand (2025–
2070) with remaining resources, certified reserves, and import reliance for 23 priority CETMs,
highlighting material-specific gaps, mismatches, and strategic strengths.
High Demand–High Import Dependence: Minerals such as nickel, lithium, cobalt, and Rare
Earth Elements (REEs) show high cumulative demand, no reserves and near-complete import
dependence (100%). These materials are essential for battery storage, electrolysers, and wind
technologies, making supply security a critical concern and requiring urgent exploration and
domestic processing efforts.
Gaps in Domestic Reserves Data: In several high-demand minerals (for example, cobalt,
vanadium and lithium), resource estimates exist but reserves remain unestablished, creating Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 33
Supply Chain Risks
long-term ambiguity around domestic supply potential. A number of moderate- and low-
demand minerals (including tellurium, gallium, germanium and indium) also lack reserve data,
underscoring the need for accelerated exploration and improved geological reporting.
Gaps in Processing and Refining Infrastructure: Some minerals, such as copper and graphite,
have significant domestic resources and reserves yet show moderate import dependence. In
silicon, overall import dependence is low, but India remains almost fully dependent on imported
polysilicon for manufacturing crystalline silicon wafers used in solar PV. These mismatches
suggest gaps in processing capacity, refining infrastructure and economic viability rather than
geological endowment.
Trace and Niche Minerals: Some minerals (e.g., strontium, gallium, indium, tellurium, germanium)
have very low projected demand but are critical to specialised applications in solar PV and
electronics. With no reported reserves or resources, these minerals will likely need to be secured
through strategic imports or as by-products of other mineral processes.
Table 3.1: Comparison of CETM Demand with Remaining Resources
4
, Reserves
5
and Import Dependence
6
Minerals
Demand
2025-2070
(kt)
Resource
7
(kt)
Reserves
8
(kt)
Import
Dependence
9
(%)
1Copper66,069 14,96,979 1,63,891 57
2 Graphite46,489 2,03,060 8,563 28
3 Silicon19,538- - 100
4 Phosphorous16,689 2,80,377 30,876 85
5 Nickel11,543 1,89,000- 100
6 Lithium5,468-- 100
7 Cobalt1,45445,000- 100
8 Vanadium78324,633- 46
9 REE668459- 100
10Molybdenum27327,203 - 100
11Titanium1244,11,108 15,998 0
12Tin118102 0.97 100
13Tellurium52- - -
14Cadmium50.455.69 - -
4 Resources refer to the overall presence of a mineral/material within the Earth’s crust that may have potential value.
5 Reserves are the portion of the resources that are currently feasible to extract, considering existing legal permissions,
available technology, and economic conditions.
6 ‘—' indicates that the necessary data for a complete assessment are not available.
7 (Committee on Identification of Critical Minerals, 2023)
8 (Committee on Identification of Critical Minerals, 2023)
9 (Chadha, R. et al., 2023) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 34
Supply Chain Risks
Minerals
Demand
2025-2070
(kt)
Resource
7
(kt)
Reserves
8
(kt)
Import
Dependence
9
(%)
15Zirconium47.791,674 669 78
16Selenium37.34- - 100
17Indium20.64- - 100
18Gallium4.27- - 100
19Tungsten4.04144- 100
20Niobium1.87-- 100
21Germanium1.85- - 100
22PGE0.300.02- 100
23Strontium0.004-- 100
This supply-demand snapshot illustrates the urgency of strengthening India’s domestic Critical
Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) ecosystem through expanded geological exploration,
accelerated reserve certification, domestic mineral processing infrastructure, international
sourcing partnerships, and expanded circular economy pathways. Without early, coordinated
action, India risks future supply bottlenecks that could constrain its clean energy transition
goals.
3.2 DOMESTIC CRITICAL MINERAL RESOURCES AND RESERVES
India has vast untapped geological potential and has identified resources for various critical
minerals. For example, India has the world's eighth-largest resource of Rare Earth Elements
(REEs). However, only a few companies currently mine and process REEs. A similar pattern
exists for cobalt and nickel: despite sizeable resources, these have not been converted into
mineable reserves, largely due to limited domestic expertise and slow industrial uptake of
critical mineral projects.
Three structural factors underpin this underperformance:
1. Inefficient allocation of mineral resources and weak regulatory frameworks, which
hinder timely exploration and development.
2. Limited financial resources and shortage of technical expertise to develop deep-seated
mineral deposits, which are more complex and capital-intensive.
3. An auction-based allocation system that provides limited incentives for private sector
participation in exploration and mining.
By addressing these systemic constraints, India can build capacity to develop domestic reserves
of critical minerals, reducing long-term dependence on imports during a period of rapidly rising
demand of critical energy transition minerals. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 35
Supply Chain Risks
3.3 PROCESSING OF MINERALS IN INDIA
Indian industry has historically demonstrated strong capability in processing bulk minerals such
as iron ore, zinc and copper. However, for many critical energy transition minerals, domestic
processing capacity remains nonexistent. The key challenges include insufficient economies
of scale, low investment in advanced processing technologies, difficulties in securing reliable
raw material supplies (domestically and internationally), and weak domestic demand for many
processed critical minerals. This lack of demand has discouraged investment in new facilities
and hindered the development of an integrated domestic mineral value chain.
India’s copper smelting capacity is rapidly expanding, with current installed capacity around 1.03
million tonnes per annum (MTPA). While the country possesses globally competitive smelting
and refining assets (the world’s second and third largest copper smelters and sixth largest
copper refinery), the sector remains limited in terms of participants. Despite this global scale,
many smelters operate below full capacity, and in some cases, domestic production has been
constrained by regulatory and operational challenges. This has reduced domestic availability
and increased reliance on imports, reflecting broader systemic bottlenecks in India’s copper
sector.
New copper processing capacities are emerging in India, including a major project in the Kutch
region with a planned capacity of around 1 Mtpa, expected to be operational in two phases
(2025 and 2029). These additions could significantly reduce import dependence for processed
copper. However, long-term resilience will depend on a more competitive processing landscape,
supported by greater private-sector participation, foreign investment, and the growth of
medium-scale enterprises.
A similar situation exists for REE processing. India accounts for 1% of mined and 3% of processed
neodymium globally (European Commission. Directorate General for Internal Market, Industry,
Entrepreneurship and SMEs., 2023). Currently, only two public sector companies, Indian Rare
Earths Limited (IREL) and Kerala Minerals and Metals Limited (KMML) mine and process beach
sand monazite in India (Indian Bureau of Mines, 2024b). The private sector’s lack of participation
has kept India’s REE processing potential underutilised. Although the 2023 amendments to
the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act opened certain REEs for auction,
unlocking this potential will require substantial private investment supported by targeted
government incentives for advanced processing technologies and the high upfront capital these
facilities demand.
Secondary sources of critical minerals end-of-life technologies, e-waste and industrial scrap
offer an emerging pathway to reduce dependence on mineral concentrates. Many start-ups
are aiming to build domestic capability in battery recycling and materials extraction. For
instance, Lohum, founded in 2018, can recycle 2 GWh of end-of-life batteries and reuse 300
MWh annually, and raised USD 54 million in 2024 to scale operations (Lohum Raises USD
54 Million to Fuel Its Market Expansion–The Economic Times, 2024). Similarly, Altmin, another
new Indian company, has developed domestic lithium-ion cell chemistries and, with support
from the International Advanced Research Centre for Powder Metallurgy and New Materials
(ARCI), under the Union Ministry of Science and Technology, has established a pilot plant to
produce cathode-active material in Hyderabad. These early initiatives illustrate India’s growing
capability to build secondary supply chains, though substantial scale-up will require continued
government support. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 36
Supply Chain Risks
While still in early stages, these initiatives demonstrate India’s growing capability to build
domestic mineral supply chains using secondary resources. Continued government support
through funding, partnerships, and incentives will be essential to scale these efforts.
Mineral processing is inherently capital-intensive and carries technological and market risks.
Projects are typically financed through a mix of vertical integration by downstream manufacturers,
government support and commercial lending (Financing the Energy Transition – Critical Minerals
Processing, 2023). Each carries limitations, underscoring the need for targeted incentives that
attract early investment into critical energy transition mineral (CETM) processing and reduce
risk for first movers.
3.4 IMPORT DEPENDENCE – DEEP DIVE OF FIVE CETMs
This section provides a focused analysis of five critical minerals—cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium,
and nickel that are central to India’s clean energy transition. For each mineral, it examines
current import dependence, key supplier countries, market dynamics and price trends, and
identifies strategic considerations for supply security.
Cobalt
Between April 2017 and December 2023, India imported cobalt oxide and hydroxide worth USD
61.5 million. In FY2023 alone, imports totalled 445 tonnes from South Africa, 152 tonnes from
Belgium, 41 tonnes from China, 34 tonnes from Finland, and 33 tonnes from Tanzania.
Global supply is highly concentrated with 70% of cobalt mining occurring in the Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC), while 70% of refining takes place in China. India’s import patterns
align with global concentration point as key cobalt refining nations – Finland, Belgium and China
– are also the largest exporters of cobalt oxide and hydroxide to India. Factors like EV demand
and shifts to alternative battery chemistries also influence the cobalt market.
Copper
India’s limited smelting capacity necessitates dependence on countries like Norway and Japan
that have mineral extraction and processing capabilities. In FY2023, India imported 359.8 tonnes
of copper oxides, with 179 tonnes from Norway, 35 tonnes from the US and 31.8 tonnes from
China (Figure 3.1a).
Copper cathode imports in FY2022 totalled 204,951 tonnes, sourced mainly from Japan (172,515
tonnes), Tanzania (22,201 tonnes), the UAE (5,023 tonnes), Mozambique (1,985 tonnes) and
Zambia (1,350 tonnes). Despite lacking domestic reserves, Japan leads in cathode exports due
to its advanced technology and strong industrial base. In contrast, Congo and Zambia have
established mining operations and significant copper reserves, with key refining operations such
as the Mopani Copper Mines and the Konkola Copper Mines. Tanzania and Mozambique also
leverage their proximity to ports to export cathodes (Figure 3.1b). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 37
Supply Chain Risks
Global copper prices have fluctuated due to US-China trade tensions, a strong US dollar in 2018,
and later supply disruptions arising from the pandemic and geopolitical events such as the
Russia–Ukraine conflict. The shutdown of India’s Vedanta smelter in 2018 turned India from a net
exporter to a net importer. Despite refined copper production rising 16% between FY2022 and
FY2023, imports increased by 180%, highlighting persistent supply gaps and strong demand
from renewable energy, EVs and electronics (PTI, 2023).
10%
15%
8%
8%
13%
64%
50%
47%
9%
7%
11%
5%
9%
13%
13%
17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
A) Copper Oxides and Hydroxides
USA SINGAPORE NORWAY
GERMANY CHINA OTHERS
89%
84%
70%
7%
11%
16%
4%4%
8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
B) Copper Cathodes
JAPAN TANZANIA REP MOZAMBIQUE
CHINA OTHERS
Figure 3.1: Import Dependence of (A) Copper Oxides and Hydroxides and (B) Copper Cathodes
Source: UN Comtrade
Graphite
India imports 60% of its graphite demand due to limited domestic production, despite being
home to Graphite India, one of the world’s largest synthetic graphite-producing companies.
From April 2017 to December 2023, natural and synthetic graphite imports to India totalled
USD 1.8 billion.
Natural graphite imports in FY2023 included 20,471 tonnes from China, 12,418 tonnes from
Madagascar, 8,525 tonnes from Mozambique, 1,500 tonnes from Tanzania and 288 tonnes from
Austria. Globally, Mozambique, Madagascar, Brazil, and Tanzania are major producers of natural
graphite and present opportunities for South-South trade partnerships (Figure 3.2a).
The same year, India’s synthetic graphite imports were dominated by China at 41,661 tonnes,
followed by 1,316 tonnes from Germany, 812 tonnes from Malaysia, 660 tonnes from South
Africa, and 451 tonnes from Japan. Some of the world’s largest synthetic graphite producing
companies are in China, USA, Japan and Germany. Since 2021, China has prioritised synthetic
graphite production, which offers superior battery anode performance, and imposed export
permits requirements for high- grade materials (Figure 3.2b). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 38
Supply Chain Risks
China’s export curbs, linked to national security concerns, coincide with US and Dutch restrictions
on semiconductor-related exports to China. This opens up opportunities for India to position
itself as a key trade partner for markets looking to diversify their graphite supply chain.
42%
46%
50%
17%
19% 11%
37%
28%
33%
4% 7% 6%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
A) Natural Graphite
CHINA MOZAMBIQUE
MADAGASCAR OTHERS
76%
89% 89%
4%
19%
10%
7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
B) Synthetic Graphite
CHINA NORWAY
SOUTH AFRICA UAE
OTHERS
Figure 3.2: Import Dependence of (A) Natural Graphite and (B) Synthetic Graphite
Source: UN Comtrade
Lithium
India does not currently produce lithium and relies entirely on imports of lithium battery
chemicals. Between April 2017 and December 2023, total imports of lithium compounds—
including lithium-ion cells, lithium carbonate, and lithium oxides and hydroxides—amounted to
USD 11.9 billion. However, an estimated 5.9 Mt of lithium resources were discovered in Jammu
& Kashmir in February 2023 (ANI, 2023).
In FY2023, India imported lithium carbonate primarily from the Netherlands (400 tonnes),
Belgium (227 tonnes), Ireland (200 tonnes), the US (75 tonnes) and Argentina (43 tonnes).
Lithium oxides and hydroxides in FY2023 came mainly from Belgium (537 tonnes), followed
by Russia (186 tonnes), the UAE (156 tonnes), Singapore (60 tonnes), and China (51 tonnes)
(Figure 3.3).
Global lithium markets remain highly volatile due to the concentration of refining capacity
(around 60% in China) as well as fluctuations in EV demand, pandemic-related disruptions and
supply shocks.
India is gradually trying to diversify its import partners, and the Minerals Security Partnership
(MSP) is expected to foster collaboration with other countries for lithium trade. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 39
Supply Chain Risks
23%
20%
23%
40%
22% 12%
12%
16%
39%
23%
3%
4%
11%
18%
15%
18%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
A) Lithium Carbonate
IRELAND BELGIUM
CHINA NETHERLANDS
ARGENTINA OTHERS
8%
5% 7%
22%
48%
37%
40%
17%
39%
14% 14%
8%
16% 17%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
B) Lithium Oxide and Hydroxide
CHINABELGIUMRUSSIAUAEOTHERS
Figure 3.3: Import Dependence of (A) Lithium Carbonate and (B) Lithium Oxides and Hydroxides
Source: UN Comtrade
Nickel
Despite having an estimated 189 million tonnes of nickel reserves, India relies entirely on imports
for renewable energy applications. Between April 2017 and December 2023, nickel compound
imports totalled approximately USD 590 million.
India imports nickel and its compounds from China, Australia, the US, Finland, Sweden, the
Philippines and South Africa. Australia has emerged as the dominant exporter due to the
Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement signed in 2022. In FY2023, nickel
oxides and hydroxides were primarily imported from Australia (1,760 tonnes), followed by
Sweden (233 tonnes), China (142 tonnes), Belgium (58 tonnes) and Japan (42 tonnes). Nickel
sulphate imports were heavily concentrated in Belgium (1,108 tonnes) and Japan (444 tonnes),
with smaller quantities sourced from South Africa (121 tonnes), Singapore (9.6 tonnes) and
China (6.6 tonnes) (Figure 3.4). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 40
Supply Chain Risks
43%
6%
39%
10%
10%
78%
99%
8%
3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
A) Nickel Oxides and Hydroxides
CHINA SWEDEN JAPAN
AUSTRALIA OTHERS
58%
66% 66%
15%
26%
21%
18%
7%12%
10%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2021-22 2022-23 2023 (Apr-Dec)
BELGIUM JAPAN SOUTH AFRICA OTHERS
B) Nickel Sulphate
Figure 3.4: Import Dependence of (A) Nickel Oxides and Hydroxides and (B) Nickel Sulphate
Source: UN Comtrade
Belgium and Japan account for over 85% of India’s nickel sulphate imports. These countries
have well-developed metallurgical and refining industries, producing high-quality nickel sulphate
that meets international standards. Belgium-headquartered company Umicore has made
advancements in producing and supplying nickel sulphate.
Nickel markets have experienced significant volatility due to pandemic disruptions, sanctions
related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Key market drivers include demand from EV manufacturing
and battery cathode production in China, while South Korea, Japan and the Philippines play
pivotal roles in global partnerships. As battery demand increases, opportunities emerge for
India to build domestic refining and processing capacity to reduce import dependence.
3.5 IMPORT DEPENDENCE AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
High import dependence, particularly from geopolitically sensitive regions, poses significant
risks to supply-chain resilience. To inform strategic planning and policy responses, this section
analyses India’s import exposure for key critical minerals, combining trade flow data with
country-level geopolitical risk assessments.
Figure 3.5 maps key CETMs, namely cobalt, lithium, nickel, graphite, copper, and their
compounds, based on India’s import dependency (Y-axis) and geopolitical risks associated
with the source country (X-axis). Import dependence is calculated using Harmonised System
(HS) Code-based trade flow data analysis, averaging 75% of total imports between FY2019
and FY2023 to stabilise trends. Geopolitical risk levels are derived from two global studies—the
Fragile States Index (Fund for Peace, 2024) and Risk Map (Control Risks, 2024), which factor in
social, political, economic, security, operational, and environmental risks, including geopolitical
tensions, conflicts, cyber threats, corruption and climate impacts.
The graph also highlights critical vulnerabilities in India’s mineral supply chains to geopolitical
risks. Graphite (natural and synthetic) is the mineral that ranks highest because of a combination
of high import dependence and high geopolitical risk with respect to China. The figure also Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 41
Supply Chain Risks
illustrates high reliance on Japan for copper cathodes and Belgium for nickel sulphate. Although
India shares a stable and friendly relationship with both these countries, the high single-country
reliance for specific materials exposes the country to supply chain vulnerabilities in case of
natural disasters, pandemics, infrastructure failures, or unforeseen circumstances.
Figure 3.5: India’s Import Dependency of Key Minerals vs. Geopolitical Risk
3.6 VULNERABILITIES OF THE GLOBAL CRITICAL MINERAL SUPPLY
CHAINS
Bottlenecks in global supply chains can significantly constrain India’s access to critical energy
transition minerals. Disruptions—whether arising from policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, or
market dynamics have a direct bearing on mineral availability, prices and security of supply.
Regulatory actions and corporate strategies in major producing regions have further increased
barriers to the free flow of critical minerals. Five key challenges stand out:
1. Foreign Ownership of Assets
Many new mining projects globally are owned by foreign companies that have secured mining
rights through strategic investments. Critical minerals are often deep-seated and require large
capital for mineral development. Hence, foreign investments have helped unlock production in
resource-rich, but capital-poor regions. However, high levels of foreign control can limit domestic
value addition in the host country, particularly by reinforcing the export of unprocessed minerals
and the underdevelopment of downstream industries. Notably, Chinese public and private
companies have been the largest investors in overseas mineral assets. Despite the country’s
limited domestic production of minerals such as lithium and cobalt, these overseas stakes
provide steady access to mineral concentrates and reinforcing China’s dominance in mineral
processing (Leruth et al., 2022). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 42
Supply Chain Risks
2. Export Restrictions
Export restrictions on CETMs have increased fivefold over the last decade (Przemyslaw Kowalski
& Clarisse Legendre, 2023). Several countries use such restrictions to promote domestic
processing and manufacturing industries. Indonesia and China, two of the largest CETM
producers, have placed export restrictions on mineral concentrates to boost domestic mineral
processing capacity. Others, such as Bolivia (2008) and Mexico (2017), nationalised lithium
mining to increase state oversight. China’s export controls have been particularly influential,
including a 2010 restriction on Rare Earth Elements (REEs) to Japan and the 2024 restriction
on antimony, gallium, and germanium to the United States. Such actions underscore the risk of
reliance on single-country suppliers, particularly during periods of geopolitical tensions.
3. Supply Chain Contracts
Long-term mineral supply agreements, including offtake contracts, are widely used to secure
access to critical minerals. These arrangements provide producers with financial certainty and
buyers with a guaranteed supply. For example, China’s CITIC Metal combined equity investments
with an offtake agreement when acquiring a 26.5% stake in Peru’s Las Bambas copper mine
(MMG Limited, 2016). Similar strategies are used globally, including by OEMs such as Tesla,
Mercedes-Benz, and BMW, which have entered upstream supply contracts for EV raw materials.
While beneficial to participating firms, such agreements limit market access for late entrants
and reduce liquidity in the spot market, restricting opportunities for new industries to procure
minerals.
4. Price Fluctuations
Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) exhibit high price volatility driven by changes in
demand, geopolitical events and structural shifts in the energy sector (International Energy
Agency, 2024) which are essential for a range of clean energy technologies, have risen up the
policy agenda in recent years due to increasing demand, volatile price movements, supply chain
bottlenecks and geopolitical concerns. The dynamic nature of the market necessitates greater
transparency and reliable information to facilitate informed decision-making, as underscored by
the request from Group of Seven (G7. In 2023 alone, lithium prices fell by around 75%, while
nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite recorded declines of 30–45%. These swings create
uncertainty for manufacturers who face rising input costs when prices increase and for miners,
whose project viability declines sharply when prices fall. Reduced project returns make financing
difficult, and several large mining operations in Australia slowed production in early 2024 due
to depressed lithium prices (Angelica Garcia & Eri Silva, 2024). Price uncertainty is therefore a
persistent structural challenge across CETM supply chains
5. Social and Environmental Vulnerabilities
Growing demand for Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) intensifies social and
environmental pressures in major mining and processing regions. Mining operations in countries
such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Chile and Indonesia have been associated
with deforestation, water stress, contamination and biodiversity loss. For instance, lithium
extraction in Chile’s Salar de Atacama consumes substantial amounts of water, exacerbating
drought conditions and impacting Indigenous communities reliant on these water sources Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 43
Supply Chain Risks
2025). Similarly, nickel mining in Indonesia has contributed to deforestation and heavy-metal
pollution, harming local ecosystems and communities (Sawal, 2022).
Social risks are similarly severe. Extraction in several regions is linked to human rights violations,
including child labour, unsafe working conditions and displacement of Indigenous communities.
Artisanal cobalt mining in the DRC has been particularly associated with hazardous work
conditions and child labour (Cao et al., 2024)social and economic sustainability risks of cobalt
mining, particularly artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM). In many cases, projects have
proceeded without obtaining Free, Prior and Informed Consent (FPIC), leading to community
conflict and social unrest. Addressing these vulnerabilities requires robust enforcement of
environmental and labour standards, adoption of responsible mining and processing practices
and sustained engagement with affected communities across the project lifecycle (UN Secretary
General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, 2024).
3.7 PROCUREMENT OF CETMS FOR DOMESTIC DEMAND
A stable supply of locally sourced raw materials can play a critical role in reducing India’s
import dependence. The government has introduced several Performance-Linked Incentive
(PLI) schemes to promote domestic manufacturing of green technologies and related products.
The solar PV module PLI, launched in 2021 with an initial outlay of INR 4,500 crore, aims to
strengthen domestic capacity in the solar sector. Similarly, the PLI for the Automobile and Auto
Component industry (INR 25,983 crore) and the PLI for Advanced Chemistry Cells (ACC) and
battery storage (INR 18,100 crore) are designed to accelerate domestic production of EVs and
battery technologies.
These initiatives have had a large budget outlay and have been effective in incentivising
domestic manufacturers to increase their investments in green technologies. However, they
have not been effective in growing the upstream sectors for mining and mineral processing
in India. For PLI schemes in downstream manufacturing to meaningfully support upstream
development, stronger domestic procurement requirements will be necessary. Alternatively,
dedicated PLI-like mechanisms could be introduced specifically for mining, mineral processing
and refining, attached to specific grades like for battery grade nickel, lithium, graphite etc.,
thereby strengthening the critical energy transition mineral value chain separately.
3.8 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
India’s clean-energy transition faces significant risks arising from vulnerabilities in its mineral
supply chains. Demand for Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) such as copper, lithium,
cobalt, and nickel is projected to rise sharply, yet India remains heavily import-dependent due
to limited reserves, underdeveloped processing capacity and low private-sector participation.
Although the country has substantial geological resources, these remain largely untapped
because of regulatory constraints, financial barriers and gaps in technical capability.
Geographical concentration of imports, especially from China, for several high-risk minerals,
intensifies exposure to geopolitical disruptions. India needs to leverage differentiated strategies
by mineral dependency quadrant, as outlined in the mineral dependency-risk matrix section. Some specific strategies, based on the analysis includes:
i. High dependency: For natural/synthetic graphite, diversify toward Mozambique,
Madagascar, Brazil, Tanzania, and explore cooperation with Minerals Security Partnership
(MSP) members like Germany, Norway, and Canada.
ii. High single-country reliance: For copper cathodes and nickel sulphate, build domestic
refining capacity in JV mode with Japanese partners (e.g., JX Nippon, Mitsubishi
Materials), and explore alternative suppliers like the US.
iii. Moderate dependency: For lithium oxide and nickel oxide, build domestic refining
capacity and seeking alternate import sources in South America, Australia, and Africa.
Global vulnerabilities such as export restrictions, long-term supply contracts that limit market
access, and environmental, social and governance risks in major mining regions further
compound supply insecurity. Addressing these risks will require sustained efforts to accelerate
exploration and reserve certification, expand domestic processing and refining capacity, diversify
international sourcing, and strengthen environmental safeguards and social-licence mechanisms
across the entire value chain. 4
EXISTING POLICIES TO
ENHANCE ACCESS TO
CRITICAL MINERAL Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 46
4
Existing Policies to
Enhance Access to
Critical Mineral
India’s growing demand for critical minerals has prompted a set of policy interventions to
strengthen domestic exploration, production, and processing capabilities, Recognising the
strategic importance of these minerals, the government has introduced reforms across the
legislative, regulatory, and institutional landscape most notably through amendments to the
Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957 (MMDR, 1957). This section reviews
key policies and institutional mechanisms designed to enhance access to critical minerals, with
a focus on improving mineral licensing, incentivising exploration, enabling transparent auctions,
addressing post-lease challenges, and supporting international partnerships and trade strategies.
4.1 ALLOCATION OF MINERAL LICENSES
The Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957 was overhauled in 2015 to
replace the First Come First Serve (FCFS)
10
system with competitive auctions for mineral
concessions. The Act aimed to enhance transparency and reduce discretion. Further amendments
in 2019, 2021, and 2023 streamlined regulations and introduced mechanisms like the District
Mineral Foundation (DMF) to provide for the welfare of mining-affected communities and the
National Mineral Exploration Trust (NMET) to encourage exploration.
From 2015 to 2024, 554 mineral blocks were successfully auctioned, but operationalisation
has since lagged, with only 66 mines reaching the production state as of 9
th
August 2025.
Several more are expected to commence production within the 2025-2026 financial year, with
an ambitious target of 55 additional mines being operationalised in the next three quarters.
However, an emerging concern from the auctions is that in certain cases, the winning bids
exceeded 100% of the mineral’s assessed value. Such aggressive bidding carries the risk of
inflating downstream metal costs, which could impact overall sectoral competitiveness.
In 2023, critical and strategic minerals were added to the MMDR framework, and the government
launched specific auctions to secure domestic supply chains for manufacturing advanced
technologies, including low-carbon technologies. The first tranche of the critical mineral auctions
was launched in November 2023. By July 2025, five auction tranches had been conducted, with
34 out of 55 unique blocks being successfully bid out (Table 4.1). With 15 blocks of these 34,
graphite accounted for the largest share.
10 The FCFS system is the most commonly used mechanism to allocate mineral concessions globally and typically
comes with safeguards in place to ensure that leases are granted fairly Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 47
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
Table 4.1: Results of Auctions for Critical Mineral Blocks
SummaryTranche 1Tranche 2Tranche 3Tranche 4Tranche 5
Total Blocks20 18 7 21 15
Fresh blocks20 18 0 10 7
Reauctioned blocks0 0 7 11 8
Mining Leases4 1 0 1 1
Composite Licences16 17 7 20 14
Preferred bidder announced6 4 4 10 10
Fewer than 3 Technically Qualified Bidders
(TQB)
12 9 3 7 2
No bids2 5 0 43
As with the allocation of onshore mineral blocks, the Offshore Areas Mineral (Development and
Regulation) Act, 2002, was amended to introduce auctions to allocate rights in offshore areas.
India’s exclusive maritime economic zone extends around 2 million km
2
and holds resources of
construction and metallic minerals. The first tranche of 13 offshore mineral block was auctioned
in November 2024 and consisted of lime mud, construction sand, and polymetallic nodules.
While seabed mining provides a significant mineral inventory, its environmental impacts have
not yet been fully understood.
4.2 INCENTIVISING EXPLORATION
Exploration is the first stage in the lifecycle of a mining project. It is a capital intensive and
high-risk activity, demanding significant time, financial investment, technical equipment, and
specialised skills. Globally, only around 1% of exploration projects fructify into an operational
mine. This risk is often borne by small exploration focused companies–commonly called junior
explorers–who aim to discover promising mineral assets and subsequently sell the rights to
larger mining companies, using the proceeds to offset unsuccessful ventures.
Public institutions, like the Geological Survey of India (GSI), have historically conducted early-
stage exploration, including baseline reconnaissance and regional geological mapping. Their
primary role is to generate national-scale geoscientific datasets and improve transparency in
subsurface information. These activities focus on broad coverage and data creation, rather than
discovery-oriented exploration.
However, the increasing strategic importance of Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs)
highlights the limitations of an exploration ecosystem dominated by public agencies beyond
baseline geoscience. Reconnaissance and early prospecting for CETMs, especially deep-seated
or by-product-driven mineralisation, require iterative field investigation, rapid progression from
regional signals to prospect-scale testing, and risk-tolerant capital. These attributes are difficult
to sustain within institutions whose mandates prioritise broad geographic coverage, standardised
survey programmes, and non-commercial objectives.
Following the transition to the auction-based allocation regime in 2015, a ‘non-exclusive
reconnaissance permit’ was introduced to facilitate exploration. However, uptake was limited Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 48
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
as the permit neither provided exploration companies with the right to mine nor to transfer the
rights of the discovered assets.
To further support exploration, National Mineral Exploration Trust (NMET) was established,
funded by a 2% royalty contribution from mining companies. The 2021 amendments enabled
Notified Exploration Agencies (NEA) accredited by QCI-NABET to receive NMET funding. As
of January 2024, the NMET sanctioned INR 2,695 crore to 471 exploration-related projects.
However, only around 2% of the funding was allocated to private explorers, with the rest going
to public sector companies. Of the 471 projects, 244 have been completed, while the remaining
are ongoing. Most are at the G3 or G4 stages of exploration (i.e., early stages of exploration).
Around 30% of the projects focus on critical minerals, while the remaining target bulk minerals
like iron ore, coal, and bauxite.
In 2023, further amendments to the MMDR Act introduced a new concession–the Exploration
Licenses (ELs), to promote the exploration of deep-seated and critical minerals. ELs, awarded
through auctions, may be based on an area suggested by any interested party. A key concern
is that exploration companies will receive revenue for their work only after a successfully
discovered resource is auctioned and developed, an outcome that takes years to materialise, if
at all (Chadha et al., 2023). Additionally, they are only entitled to a share of the final auction
premium, the value of which remains unknown at exploration. Unlike in other jurisdictions, EL
in India does not grant the exploration company a right to mine, weakening the incentive for
private participation.
Since its introduction in 2023, several states unsuccessfully attempted to auction Exploration
Licenses (ELs). Subsequently, in late 2024, the centre took on the role of issuing EL auctions. Of
the 13 blocks auctioned under Tranche-1 in March 2025 (encompassing 10 states for 8 mineral
commodities), only 7 were successfully concluded. These outcomes underline the persistence
of discovery-stage constraints and the limited appetite for exploration under current risk-reward
structures.
International experience suggests that effective exploration ecosystems clearly differentiate
between foundational geoscience and risk-bearing discovery activity. Public agencies focus
on high-quality baseline surveys, modern geophysical datasets, and open-access geoscience
platforms. Private explorers operating under regulatory oversight and environmental and social
safeguards, and undertake reconnaissance-to-prospecting activities that convert geological
information into discoveries. These private explorers are typically incentivised by the ability to
internalise discovery upside through transferable exploration rights, time-bound progression
to subsequent licence stages, and clear pathways to monetise successful discoveries through
asset sales, partnerships, or downstream development. Such sequencing strengthens the entire
exploration-to-mining pipeline and improves auction outcomes by ensuring that allocated
blocks are supported by credible geological intelligence, thereby reducing non-participation
and speculative bidding (S Vijay Kumar, 2019).
Incentivising the exploration of critical energy transition minerals requires recalibrating the
balance between public and private roles at the early stages of the exploration lifecycle. Public
institutions such as GSI should continue to anchor national geoscience programmes and
data systems. Reconnaissance and prospecting activities should increasingly enable private
participation through transparent, time-bound licensing frameworks that better align discovery
incentives with downstream allocation mechanisms. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 49
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
4.3 ACCESSING CREDIBLE EXPLORATION DATA
Ministry of Mines in 2023 launched the National Geoscience Data Portal (NGDR) to foster
innovation in exploration. NGDR is a comprehensive online platform for accessing, sharing, and
analysing geospatial information across the nation.
However, India’s critical mineral exploration challenge is also one of data quality and usability,
not just data volume. While substantial geological surveys and mapping have been undertaken
by the Geological Survey of India (GSI), and is scientifically credible, much of this information
is not generated, classified, or disclosed in formats that enable investors to make bankable
project decisions.
Experts and industry highlight (Aggam Walia, 2024; A Vijay Kumar, 2019) that India’s reporting
still leans on legacy United Nations Framework Classification for Resources (UNFC) style
classifications and heterogeneous reporting standards, which do not consistently incorporate
economic viability, confidence levels, and competent-person sign‑off. These elements are
required by reporting codes such as Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting
Standards (CRIRSCO) or Joint Ore Reserve Committee (JORC) developed by Australia, or the
proposed Indian Mineral Industry Code (IMIC) (NACRI – Mining Engineers’ Association of India,
2022) developed by Indian experts.
This weak alignment with investor-oriented reporting frameworks reduces confidence in stated
resources and reserve estimates, leading private and foreign investors to discount or re‑do
state-generated geological work before committing capital.
4.4 POST-LEASE CLEARANCES
Before commencing mining operations, leaseholders must obtain four primary clearances:
Forest Clearance (FC), Environmental Clearance (EC), Wildlife Clearance (WLC), and Consent
to Operate (CTO). While EC and CTO are mandatory for all projects, FC and WLC apply only
when forest and wildlife are involved. These clearances are issued by authorities at various
governance levels and are regulated by the Ministry of Environment, Forests, and Climate
Change (MOEFCC). Often, these clearances face delays and backlogs despite a statutory 420-
day deadline. For instance, it took over five years for the Ghoraburhani-Sagasahi iron ore mine
in Sundargarh, Odisha to operationalise in 2021. Until 2023, it was the only virgin mine to have
operationalised in Odisha among the 48 blocks successfully auctioned out in 2016.
A study of Jharkhand, Karnataka, and Odisha found that the greatest delays occurred at the
Environmental Clearance (EC) and the Forest Clearance (FC) stages, with Odisha recording the
highest number of pending applications beyond the statutory period (Bansal, K. & Kapoor, I.,
2022). Streamlining these processes is essential to reduce investor uncertainty. It is as important
to have high and strictly enforced standards to issue clearance, as it is to ensure that application
processes are concluded within the prescribed timeline.
4.5 NATIONAL CRITICAL MINERAL MISSION
In January 2025, the Union Cabinet approved the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM)
with a total outlay of INR 34,300 crore to strengthen India’s critical mineral supply chain and Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 50
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
support exploration, processing and value-chain development. It has a direct expenditure of INR
16,300 crore from 2024–25 to 2030–31, including a budgetary support of INR 2,600 crore, and
aligned expenditure from PSUs at INR 18,000 crore (Ministry of Mines, 2025). The mission aims
to increase mineral sector efficiencies through integration and collaboration between various
government bodies and other stakeholders under one mission. Its focus is to increase domestic
production and recycling of minerals, along with facilitating the acquisition of critical mineral
assets abroad. The mission will facilitate trade, research, and technological advancement in
the mineral sector by developing strong financial incentives for greater participation from the
private sector.
The National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) is a necessary policy initiative that has the potential
to help shape the future of India’s critical mineral landscape. However, some challenges may
directly impact the outcomes of the mission. Vulnerabilities in global supply chains due to
restrictions on mineral exports have increased the barriers for highly import-dependent countries
to access mineral concentrates. New entrants also have to content with the dominance of
Chinese players in the global critical mineral supply chains, which is underpinned by their equity
stakes in operational mines and long-term offtake agreements with mine owners. Securing
India’s critical mineral supply chains would require the use of other policy tools, such as trade
and fiscal policies, to support the NCMM in achieving its desired objective.
4.6 PUBLIC SECTOR UNDERTAKINGS (PSUS) IN INDIA’S CRITICAL
MINERALS STRATEGY
PSUs continue to play an important role in India’s mineral sector, particularly in large-scale mining,
mineral processing, and overseas asset acquisition. In recent years, several PSUs have either
been assigned mandates or have independently initiated activities related to critical minerals,
reflecting the growing strategic importance of these materials for India’s energy transition and
industrial competitiveness.
Examples include Coal India Limited’s engagement in lithium exploration and overseas critical
mineral initiatives (Shivam Prakash, 2025) NMDC’s established technical and financial capacity
in large-scale mining and stated interest in diversification beyond iron ore (www.ETAuto.com);
and Indian Rare Earths Limited’s specialised capabilities in rare earth mining, separation, and
processing. Collectively, these entities represent significant public-sector capability relevant to
the exploration, mining, and processing of Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs).
Table 4.2: Recent PSU Activity on CETMs
PSU Administrative MinistryCETM-relevant activity
Coal India Ministry of Coal
Lithium exploration (Argentina), critical minerals JV
discussions, diversification mandate
NMDC Ministry of Steel
Geological exploration capability, iron-ore core, stated interest
in diversification and critical minerals
IREL Atomic Energy
REE mining, separation, processing; technical monopoly in
certain REE streams
KABIL Ministry of MinesOverseas asset acquisition mandate Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 51
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
At present, however, these capabilities are distributed across multiple administrative ministries
(see table 4.2), reflecting historical sectoral mandates rather than a unified critical minerals
strategy, resulting in institutional fragmentation and mandate misalignment across the critical
minerals ecosystem. While statutory responsibility for critical and strategic minerals increasingly
rests with the Ministry of Mines under the MMDR framework, operational capabilities relevant
to CETMs remain institutionally fragmented.
As CETMs transition from niche inputs to system-critical materials underpinning clean energy
technologies, advanced manufacturing, and industrial policy, this fragmentation creates
coordination and execution risks. This can materialise in practice through delayed decision-
making, duplication of exploratory or feasibility efforts across agencies, and weak accountability
for outcomes along the exploration-to-mining pipeline. Dispersed administrative control can
slow decision-making, dilute accountability for exploration and mining outcomes, and limit the
ability to deploy public sector capacity in a mission-oriented manner aligned with national
priorities.
The emerging policy challenge is therefore not the absence of public sector capability, but the
effective alignment and mobilisation of these capabilities within the mining policy ecosystem.
Addressing this challenge is central to strengthening domestic exploration and mining outcomes
for CETMs and ensuring that public sector assets contribute coherently to India’s long-term
critical minerals strategy.
4.7 INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIES
Recognising that several critical minerals essential for the energy transition either are not found
in India or are present only in limited or non-viable quantities, the Government of India has
taken proactive steps to secure overseas supplies through the following measures:
1. Established Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL): A joint venture public sector
company with the mandate to identify and acquire overseas critical mineral assets. It
has signed an agreement for lithium exploration and mining in Argentina (India Signs
Agreement for Lithium Exploration & Mining Project in Argentina).
2. Elimination of Import Duties on Critical Minerals: In the 2024–25 Union Budget, India
fully exempted 25 critical minerals from customs duties. This includes lithium, cobalt,
copper, and REEs, and several types of waste material containing these minerals (Law,
2025).
3. Deepened International Ties around Minerals: India has significantly strengthened
international partnerships to secure reliable and diversified sources of critical minerals.
It is an active participant in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and the broader
Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), both of which aim to build resilient, transparent,
and sustainable mineral supply chains. Bilateral collaborations have also advanced,
including the India-Australia Critical Minerals Investment Partnership targeting
joint investments in five lithium and cobalt projects (PIB, 2023), and a 2024 India-
U.S. Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) focused on cooperation in exploration,
processing, and recycling of key minerals (PIB, 2024). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 52
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
4. NCMM’s international initiatives:
Stockpile Programme: A joint initiative between central PSUs or with private companies
shall be institutionalised to develop a National Critical Mineral Stockpile Programme
to guard against supply disruptions and aid mineral supply for domestic utilisation.
To develop the National Critical Minerals Stockpile/Reserves, the government has
allocated INR 500 crore during the Mission period for this purpose.
Exploration: In addition, the Mission will spend INR 1,600 crore up to FY2031, to support
critical minerals exploration activities outside India. To encourage the participation of
Indian public (Central & State) and private sector companies in the acquisition of
assets abroad, the government has plans to incentivise mining and set up evacuation
infrastructure with financial outlay of INR 4,000 crore under the NCMM. In the private
sector, some Indian companies have invested in mines in Africa, signalling growing
interest in business-led global resource partnerships.
Critical Role of Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL)
KABIL has a central responsibility in India’s strategy to secure long-term, diversified sources of
CETMs and reduce reliance on a concentrated global supply chain. Its mandate places it at the
forefront of India’s international engagements on critical-minerals, making it a key instrument
for translating strategic objectives into tangible overseas partnerships and investments.
Currently, KABIL’s activities are concentrated in early-stage international engagements, including
memoranda of understanding and preliminary project assessments, and initial collaborations.
These foundation efforts are essential steps in building India’s presence in global critical mineral
markets, though the scale of ongoing activity is relatively limited compared with the breadth of
responsibilities it holds. Its current bandwidth, particularly in areas such as project development,
risk assessment, and operational follow-through, is still evolving.
KABIL can draw valuable lessons from the Indian overseas public sector enterprises in other
sectors, such as energy, which have developed strong in-house capabilities in geological
evaluation, project finance, host-government engagement, and asset operations across diverse
international contexts. Leveraging such experience can help KABIL progressively strengthen its
institutional depth, execution capacity and project development expertise.
This is essential for reducing import risk and translating India’s international critical minerals
strategy from intent to delivery.
4.8 MINERAL MARKETS
The MMDR Amendment Act, 2025, incorporates a provision to empower the Central Government
to promote the development of markets, including trading of minerals, their concentrates or
processed forms (including metals) through mineral exchanges. The Government could nominate
a authority to register and regulate mineral exchanges and prescribe rules to regulate various
aspects and activities of such exchanges and related matters.
Efficient trading exchanges will help both mining companies and end-users of minerals to
better determine and predict prices, aiding in budgeting and planning, stabilising markets,
and absorbing shocks and disruptions. Enhanced trade also stimulates storage, transport, and Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 53
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
logistics facilities. The mineral trading exchanges will also help determine fair market prices
based on supply and demand dynamics. This may further help state governments in realising
fair revenue share.
4.9 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
India has undertaken significant legislative and institutional reforms to enhance access to critical
minerals. The transition to auction-based mineral allocation and the creation of mechanisms
like District Mineral Foundation (DMF) and National Mineral Exploration Trust (NMET) have
increased transparency and funding for exploration. Internationally, India has adopted a proactive
approach through initiatives like Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL), tariff reductions, strategic
partnerships under Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and Minerals Security Partnership
(MSP). The launch of the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) in early 2025 further
consolidates these efforts under a unified institutional framework, with dedicated funding to
drive domestic exploration, recycling, and overseas asset acquisition.
Despite this progress, persistent operational and structural constraints continue to limit outcomes
on the ground. Actual mine operationalisation remains slow, and exploration continues to be
dominated by public agencies, with limited private participation due to unresolved commercial
risks. High royalty and tax burdens, coupled with procedural delays in post-lease clearances,
further deter investment. As a result, while the policy architecture reflects a strategic pivot
towards supply security and global integration, realising its full potential will require parallel
domestic reforms that streamline approvals, de-risk private exploration, and enable sustained,
long-term investment across the value chain.
Long and uncertain pathways from exploration to production
India’s current exploration and licensing framework relies heavily on auction-based allocation
even at early stages, where geological confidence is low and competitive interest is limited.
In such contexts, auction-based allocation can inadvertently delay exploration and mine
development, resulting in no realised economic value.
International experience across major mining jurisdictions demonstrates that early-stage
exploration for critical and strategic minerals is most effectively driven by specialised junior
explorers operating under predictable, low-friction licensing regimes. Competitive allocation
mechanisms are introduced only once geological confidence and project viability are established.
This staged approach, followed in Australia, Canada, Latin America and Africa, combines non-
auctioned access for early discovery with competitive allocation once resources are delineated
and commercial interest is demonstrably high (uncommon in critical minerals).
While auctions are effective instruments once geological confidence and competition are
established, undiscovered or undeveloped resources generate no royalty, tax or downstream
economic activity. Earlier discovery and production enable sustained public revenues over the
life of the resource through royalties, corporate taxation, GST from processing, employment
generation and reduced import dependence, often exceeding one-time auction receipts. From
a public-finance perspective, enabling discovery and development is therefore a prerequisite Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 54
Existing Policies to Enhance Access to Critical Mineral
for meaningful revenue realisation when it comes to critical minerals. Moreover, in the context
of strategic and critical minerals, the acute supply vulnerability, national security relevance, and
time-sensitive industrial policy objectives, the state may prioritise speed and certainty over
price discovery, subject to adequate safeguards.
Persistent geological uncertainty and exploration risk
Geological uncertainty remains elevated even in areas that have been surveyed, and that without
more credible, standardised and accessible data, reforms to licensing, auctions, or exploration
incentives alone will not substantially lower riskadjusted cost of capital for private and foreign
explorers. 5
ECOSYSTEM
REQUIREMENTS FOR
CIRCULAR ECONOMY
SOLUTIONS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 56
5
Ecosystem Requirements
for Circular Economy
Solutions
With the domestic primary supply of Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) remaining
limited and heavily import-dependent, India would be exposed to vulnerabilities arising from
geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, and price volatility. In this context, circular-economy
pathways offer an essential complementary supply stream by enabling the recovery, reuse, and
recycling of critical materials from end-of-life products and industrial waste.
Circular approaches not only enhance resource efficiency and reduce environmental impact but
also strengthen self-reliance and industrial resilience. By recovering CETMs from used batteries,
electronics, renewable energy infrastructure, and industrial by-products, India can significantly
supplement its primary supply and reduce overall material footprint.
This chapter presents an analytical assessment of the role circularity can play in supporting
India’s critical energy transition mineral needs. It estimates the volume of e-waste and other
secondary sources available for material recovery across different sectors and technologies.
Using a bottom-up forecasting approach based on sales data, asset lifecycles, and failure rate
modelling, the analysis projects e-waste generation through 2047. In addition, a Technology
Assessment Framework (TAF) evaluates recycling technologies against technical, economic,
and environmental criteria to identify the most viable pathways for scaling circular-economy
practices in India.
5.1 CURRENT LANDSCAPE OF CIRCULAR ECONOMY POLICIES
Governments worldwide are increasingly adopting circular economy strategies to address the
rising demand for critical minerals, with e-waste management emerging as a central focus. In
India, the regulatory framework for e-waste has evolved through successive versions of the
E-waste (Management) Rules, first introduced in 2011 and revised in 2016, 2018, and 2022.
The latest set of rules, effective from April 2023, further strengthens the Extended Producer
Responsibility (EPR) system by placing clear obligations on manufacturers, producers,
refurbishers, and recyclers for the end-of-life management of their products.
The National Policy on Electronics (NPE) 2019 outlines protocols for implementing EPR
requirements and promoting sustainable growth in the electronics sector. The Battery Waste
Management Rules (BWMR) 2022 establish a dedicated framework for the sustainable
management and recycling of battery waste, emphasising EPR and setting mandatory recycling
targets. Additionally, the Ministry of MSME, is implementing the Scheme for Promotion and
Investment in the Circular Economy for Micro and Small Enterprises (MSE-SPICE) to promote
circular economy initiatives including e-waste recycling—within the MSME ecosystem. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 57
Ecosystem Requirements for Circular Economy Solutions
Taken together, these policy measures aim to create a more structured, traceable, and
environmentally sustainable e-waste processing ecosystem in India.
5.2 ESTIMATING E-WASTE AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING
The study applies a five-step methodology (detailed in Annex B) to estimate e-waste available
for recycling and the associated recovery of Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) through
2047. It begins with compiling e-waste generation data from 10 states for the base year 2022,
followed by forecasting future waste volumes using historical sales trends, product-lifespan
profiles and adoption trajectories. The analysis then projects e-waste recoverable in 2047 under
both existing policy targets (60–80%) and an reform scenario with an 85% processing rate.
These projected waste streams are linked to recoverable material volumes by applying material-
intensity factors, covering both critical minerals (e.g., lithium, cobalt) and non-critical metals
(e.g., iron, aluminium). Finally, a 95% recovery efficiency is assumed to reflect high-performance
recycling systems.
Between FY 2017–18 and FY 2021–22, e-waste generation in India more than doubled—from
708,445 tonnes to 1,601,155 tonnes (PIB, 2023). While formal-sector processing increased from
9.8% to 32.9% over the same period, this expansion remains far below both policy targets
and the rate of growth in e-waste generation. The widening gap between generation and
formal recovery highlights persistent structural constraints in India’s collection and processing
ecosystem and underscores the urgency of strengthening both upstream aggregation systems
and downstream treatment capacity.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Cu Gr Ni Co Si Li Nd
Kilo Tonne
CEEW1 CEEW2 CEEW3 CEEW4
CEEW5 ITEW1ITEW2ITEW3
ITEW6ITEW15 Spent Magnets Solar Waste
EV LIB Batteries
Cumulative CRM Recoveries from E-Was te from 2023-47
Figure 5.1: Cumulative CETM Recoveries from E-Waste Between 2025 and 2047 in
Current Policy Scenario
*CEEW - Consumer Electrical and Electronics Waste, categories are explained in Annex Table B.1
Figure 5.1 presents cumulative recoverable Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) volumes
from the modelled e-waste streams between 2025 and 2047. Copper shows the largest recovery
potential, driven by its widespread presence across conventional consumer and industrial
electronics such as refrigerators, washing machines, laptops and printers. Graphite is the next- Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 58
Ecosystem Requirements for Circular Economy Solutions
largest recovery stream, with a vast majority of recoveries coming from end-of-life EV lithium-
ion batteries underscoring the strategic importance of battery recycling for domestic supply
security.
Other high-value battery minerals nickel, lithium and cobalt also exhibit substantial recoverable
volumes, principally sourced from EV battery waste. Silicon recoveries are moderate and
concentrated in end-of-life solar PV modules, highlighting the growing relevance of photovoltaic
waste management. Neodymium is recovered in smaller absolute quantities but is notable
because it is sourced almost exclusively from spent permanent magnets used in EV motors
and wind turbines.
Collectively, these trends indicate a structural shift in India’s secondary resource base:
recoverable Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) will increasingly originate from clean-
energy technology waste rather than from traditional electronics. This shift requires dedicated
collection channels, reverse-logistics systems, and specialised processing facilities tailored to
battery packs, PV modules and magnet-containing assemblies. Under the reform scenario
(immediate adoption of an 85% processing target), recoveries for the modelled minerals increase
by 13.25% (Annex I).
5.3 IDENTIFYING OPTIMAL E-WASTE RECYCLING TECHNOLOGY
To identify the most suitable recycling pathways for the modelled waste streams, the study
applied a Technology Assessment Framework (TAF) that evaluated three processing routes
namely pyrometallurgy, hydrometallurgy (acid leaching) and hydrometallurgy (bioleaching)
against technical, economic and environmental (TEE) criteria. A fuzzy-TOPSIS ranking method,
informed by expert judgement and sensitivity testing (details in Annex B) was used to assess
each technology’s closeness to an ideal solution.
Hydrometallurgy (bioleaching) emerged as the top-ranked technology on environmental
and economic criteria because of its low capital costs and minimal environmental impact.
Hydrometallurgy (acid-leaching) ranked highest on the technical criterion due to its maturity,
higher recovery efficiency, and wider applicability. Pyrometallurgy, although technically mature,
received the lowest rank across all TEE criteria, making it the least optimal technology for
e-waste recycling.
These findings highlight the potential of hydrometallurgical approaches, especially bioleaching,
as promising solutions for scaling environmentally sound and cost-effective e-waste recycling
in India.
5.4 EXTENT OF CETM DEMAND THAT CAN BE MET BY CIRCULARITY
Figure 5.2 below illustrates the share of India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral demand in
2025-2047 that can potentially be met through recycling e-waste and end-of-life products
generated during the same period. Cobalt shows the most promise in potential recovery from
recycling, its share rises from around 30% in 2030 to almost 100% by 2040. This is largely due
to the high volume of cobalt-rich batteries reaching their end of life with a simultaneous shift
toward lower-cobalt and cobalt-free alternatives in future, reducing overall cobalt demand in the
economy. Nickel follows a similar but more gradual trajectory, due to its continued requirement
in various technologies. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 59
Ecosystem Requirements for Circular Economy Solutions
Graphite, copper, and lithium all show steady increases, reaching around 15-25% by 2047,
reflecting growing recycling volumes as battery and electronics waste accumulates. In contrast,
recycling contributes to only a fraction of the new demand for silicon and neodymium.
0
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2047
Copper (Cu)Nickel (Ni)Lithium (Li)
GraphiteCobalt (Co)Silicon (Si)
Neodymium (Nd)
Figure 5.2: Share of CETM Demand fulfilled by Recycled Minerals Between 2025 and 2047
Current Policy Scenario
As deployment of low-carbon technologies picks up at mid-century, we see the limited ability
of recycling to meet demand. These trends show that recycling can partly succeed in meeting
the needs for select minerals. For most Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs), it may
supplement but will not replace primary supply, highlighting the need for parallel investments
in mining, processing, waste import, and material efficiency strategies.
5.5 ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF MINERALS
While consumer electronics remain a key focus for mineral recovery, there is significant
untapped potential in alternate sources, particularly manufacturing waste from sectors such as
automotive, battery production, renewable energy, and mining tailing. Industrial scrap, spent
catalysts, and by-products like slag and sludge often contain high concentrations of Critical
Raw Materials (CRMs) such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earth elements, and precious metals.
These sources are typically more centralised and compositionally consistent than post-consumer
waste, making them more accessible and cost-effective for recovery. Tapping into these streams
can reduce dependence on primary mining, enhance resource security, and contribute to India’s
clean energy and circular economy goals.
To unlock this potential, policies must incentivise industries to accurately report, segregate, and
direct valuable manufacturing waste into formal recycling systems. With the right regulatory and
infrastructural support, India can not only strengthen its domestic supply chains for strategic
minerals but also enhance sustainable resource recovery. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 60
Ecosystem Requirements for Circular Economy Solutions
5.6 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
Despite several systemic limitations, e-waste and battery recycling show considerable potential,
as yet untapped, to contribute to India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) security.
Notably, recycling can only partially meet the demand for battery-related minerals. For many
other CETMs such as silicon and rare earths like neodymium, the contribution remains marginal.
While scaling up formal recycling systems can help close material loops for select minerals, to
realise the full potential of circular economy pathways in India, it must be complemented by i)
parallel efforts to improve collection efficiency; ii) investment in advanced recovery technologies;
and iii) strengthened regulatory enforcement.
In conclusion, the effectiveness of circular economy as a source must also be viewed through
the lens of India’s manufacturing trajectory. Even if Indian manufacturers deploy only 20–30%
of the low-carbon technologies, the projected levels of material recovery may be adequate to
meet much of the domestic demand for key battery minerals. However, if India’s manufacturing
footprint expands significantly, the recycling alone will not suffice. In such a case, the country
would need to increase primary mineral procurement and actively explore the import of high-
value end-of-life products and battery scrap from other regions as an additional feedstock. 6
R&D REQUIREMENTS
FOR CRITICAL MINERAL
PROCESSING AND
RECYCLING Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 62
6
R&D Requirements for
Critical Mineral Processing
and Recycling
Research and Development (R&D) is a cornerstone of India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral
(CETM) strategy. As global demand for these minerals surge, India must develop the capacity
to not only secure raw materials but also process, refine, and recycle them domestically. At
present, much of the global value in Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs) lies not in the
extraction stage, but in the downstream processing and technology-intensive stages. These
are dominated by a handful of countries, exposing India to significant supply and pricing risks.
Bridging this gap demands a robust, mission-oriented R&D agenda that will play a critical role
in:
1. Improving resource efficiency, enabling extraction from low-grade or unconventional
ores.
2. Reducing environmental impact by promoting cleaner, less energy-intensive processes.
3. Unlocking value from secondary sources, through advanced recycling and recovery
technologies.
This chapter reviews India’s current capabilities in critical mineral processing and recycling,
examines the existing policy support for CETM related R&D, and provides an overview of global
research trends that could inform the direction of future domestic efforts.
6.1 TECHNOLOGIES FOR MINERAL PROCESSING AND RECYCLING
India’s domestic R&D ecosystem led by institutions such as Council of Scientific and Industrial
Research (CSIR) laboratories, Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), and select private firms has
made notable strides in developing processing and recycling technologies for several CETMs.
However, the maturity of these technologies varies significantly across the mineral spectrum.
The following section presents a comparative analysis using data compiled for 18 CETMs (Table
6.1) with details of the data shared in Annex H.
Table 6.1: Summary of Minerals Analysed for Processing and
Recycling Technology and R&D Readiness
Type of UseMinerals Mapped# of Minerals
Battery MaterialsLi, Co, Ni, V, Graphite5
Rare Earths & MagneticsNd, Pr, Tb, Y, Sc5
Electronics/SemiconductorsGa, Ge, In, Te, Se5
Alloying & StructuralTi, Nb, Ta3 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 63
R&D Requirements for Critical Mineral Processing and Recycling
Based on the comparative analysis, the following classification emerges:
Mature Process
In various Critical Energy Transition Minerals (CETMs), India has developed technological
capabilities assessed to be at par with international best practices, with successful pilot-scale
demonstrations or commercial operations already established.
Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, vanadium, tungsten, and titanium
11
represent clear opportunities
for industrial scaling, commercialisation support, and policy incentives, including PLI schemes.
Similarly, in recycling, India has developed mature technologies with strong potential to support
a domestic circular economy for critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, vanadium,
tungsten, and titanium) particularly in sectors such as batteries, motors, and e-waste recycling.
Pilot/Partial Process
At the same time, several processes remain at a pilot or pre-commercial stage, often limited
to beneficiation or intermediate purification, lacking the capability to produce high-purity end-
products. This is true for primary processing (neodymium, praseodymium, titanium-metal,
niobium, tantalum, germanium, tellurium, yttrium, and selenium) and recycling (indium, niobium,
tantalum, and gallium), where promising lab-scale innovations require scale-up, validation, and
industrial integration to match global benchmarks. These technologies are ideal candidates for
translational R&D support through public–private consortia, as well as targeted international
collaborations. Investment in such initiatives would help bridge the gap between innovation
and deployment.
Finally, there are critical minerals for which India currently lacks any meaningful domestic
processing capability—whether at the research, pilot, or commercial scale (terbium, gallium,
indium, and scandium). This is also true for certain recyclable feedstocks (germanium, scandium,
tellurium, and selenium), where the absence of suitable processes, infrastructure, or access
to proprietary technologies results in complete import dependence. These require urgent
attention from India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral ecosystem through mission-mode R&D
programmes, technology access agreements, or global partnerships, particularly for by-product
recovery and high-purity separation.
6.2 R&D-SUPPORTIVE POLICIES IN PROCESSING AND RECYCLING
OF CRITICAL MINERALS
Under its Science and Technology (S&T) Programme, the Ministry of Mines provides funding
to academic institutions, universities, national institutes, and R&D organisations recognised by
the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, startups, and MSMEs to implement R&D
projects. This programme aims to promote applied research in geosciences, mineral exploration,
mining, mineral processing, optimum utilisation, and conservation of mineral resources for
national benefit.
In 2023, the programme’s scope was expanded with the introduction of the “Promotion of
Research and Innovation in Startups and MSMEs in Mining, Mineral Processing, Metallurgy and
11 Ti processes currently terminate at TiO₂ concentrate; full metal-level capabilities are absent. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 64
R&D Requirements for Critical Mineral Processing and Recycling
Recycling Sector” (S&T-PRISM). The S&T Programme now has two key components:
1. R&D: Funds are allocated to academic institutions, universities, national institutes, and
R&D institutions recognised by the DSIR for undertaking R&D projects.
2. S&T-PRISM: Funds are allocated to ensure timely availability of seed support to
deserving startups.
A total of 22 projects related to critical minerals from academic institutions, universities, national
institutes, and R&D institutions have been sanctioned under the R&D component during 2024-
25. The same year, six projects from startups and MSMEs have been sanctioned under the S&T-
PRISM component, totalling 28 sanctioned critical mineral-related projects.
The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) plays a pivotal role in advancing
cost-effective technological solutions, skill development, and capacity building to manage
e-waste across the country. As part of its initiatives, MeitY has established India’s first Centre
of Excellence (CoE) for e-waste management at C-MET, Hyderabad.
This CoE serves as a hub for providing affordable recycling technologies, fostering start-up
creation, offering incubation facilities, and conducting skill development programmes. The
recycling technologies developed at this centre cater to:
1. Printed Circuit Board
2. Lithium-ion Battery
3. Rare Earth Permanent Magnets
4. Fluorescent Lamp Phosphors
5. PV Solar Cells
The CoE has successfully transferred these advanced technologies to approximately 30
industries, promoting sustainable e-waste management and supporting the country’s circular
economy goals.
These efforts aim to bridge the gap between innovation and commercialisation and are integral
to building a self-reliant, resilient supply chain for critical minerals essential to India’s clean
energy future.
6.3 GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS IN MINERAL PROCESSING AND
RECYCLING
Traditional mineral processing has largely focused on optimising established technologies
rather than inventing new ones. Processing costs, technological requirements, and operational
complexity are strongly influenced by feedstock characteristics, particularly ore grade and
impurity levels. Lower-grade ores demand more intensive treatment, while ore composition
determines the choice of metallurgical routes. Recycling presents comparable complexities as
the type, quality, and composition of end-of-life materials shape the design and efficiency of
recovery processes.
Most current operations rely on proven pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical techniques,
where precise control of temperature, pressure, and chemical conditions is critical for high
recovery and process stability. Although incremental improvements to these methods have Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 65
R&D Requirements for Critical Mineral Processing and Recycling
delivered gains in efficiency and cost performance, evolving supply-chain dynamics and
sustainability constraints are reshaping global R&D priorities. Conventional processes are often
energy-intensive, generate substantial emissions, have large chemical footprints, and offer limited
flexibility in handling low-grade or complex feedstocks. These methods also face challenges in
economically recovering trace elements and in scaling for decentralised applications, which are
increasingly critical as Critical Energy Transition Mineral supply chains become more complex
and globally dispersed.
In response, global R&D is pivoting toward next-generation processing and recycling technologies
that offer greater efficiency, selectivity, and sustainability. Direct lithium extraction, for instance,
enables targeted recovery from low-concentration brines and clays without energy-intensive
evaporation (Amir Razmjou, 2024). In recycling, direct recycling of lithium-ion batteries retains
material structure, reducing the number of processing steps, while closed-loop battery recycling
aims to minimise both waste and chemical inputs (Neumann et al., 2022).
Renewables-powered electrometallurgical and solvent-free extraction processes are also being
explored globally to significantly cut down on reagent use, carbon and energy intensity.
Importantly, advanced electrowinning and electrorefining techniques are being developed to
enable the recovery of high-purity metals from complex, low-concentration solutions, such as
those found in urban mining and recycling of electronics and batteries. These methods offer
precise control over metal purity and are more adaptable to variable feedstocks (Rai et al.,
2021). Complementing this, ion-selective membrane technologies are emerging as powerful
tools for targeted metal separation, allowing for the efficient recovery of specific elements while
reducing cross-contamination and chemical waste (Wang et al., 2023).
Together, these innovations present a strategic opportunity for India to leapfrog legacy
infrastructure, build decentralised and low-footprint processing systems, and align its CETM
roadmap with global frontiers in sustainable materials recovery.
6.4 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS
India has made measurable progress in developing R&D capabilities for Critical Energy
Transition Mineral (CETM) processing and recycling, particularly for materials such as lithium,
cobalt, nickel, and graphite. However, the maturity of technologies varies significantly across
the CETM spectrum. While several processes are at par with global standards and ready for
industrial scaling, others remain in the pilot stage or are entirely absent, especially for niche
elements such as scandium, tellurium, and gallium used in high-tech products. India’s recycling
capabilities, though promising, also show uneven readiness across different materials. As
global innovation shifts toward cleaner, modular, and more selective technologies, India’s R&D
agenda must evolve accordingly. Addressing the identified gaps through targeted investments,
translational infrastructure, and international collaboration will be critical to achieving self-
reliance and sustainability in CETM supply chains. 7
POLICY SUGGESTIONS Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 68
7
Policy
Suggestions
This chapter translates the strategic insights from the preceding chapters into a focused set
of policy actions to strengthen India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral ecosystem. A coherent
critical minerals strategy requires clarity on the principles that shape these policy choices.
These guiding principles translate India’s critical mineral ecosystem challenges into a structured
logic for action. They clarify the direction of reform, guide sequencing across different supply
pathways and time horizons, and surface the cross-cutting enablers required for a resilient
CETM ecosystem. Together, they provide the organising logic for the intervention pillars that
follow and ensure that suggestions remain anchored in system-wide strategic priorities.
7.1 GUIDING PRINCIPLES FOR POLICY ACTION
Principle 1: Enable private sector leadership across the value chain
Public institutions will continue to play a catalytic and coordinating role, but scaling CETM
supply chains ultimately depends on sustained private investment, operational leadership, and
technology adoption. Policy frameworks should therefore prioritise predictability in regulation,
streamlined approvals, risk-sharing mechanisms, and fiscal alignment that enable competitive
private participation across exploration, refining, recycling and international sourcing.
Principle 2: Align interventions with differentiated timelines across supply
pathways
Primary mining, secondary recovery, refining, and overseas sourcing operate on fundamentally
different timelines and risk profiles. Policy design must recognise these differences by
accelerating near-term capacity creation where feasible (such as recycling and processing),
while sustaining long-term horizon support for exploration and mine development. Sequencing
interventions in line with these structural timelines is essential to avoid policy misalignment and
investor uncertainty.
Principle 3: Diversify risk through strategic and mutually beneficial
international partnerships
Given high concentration in global CETM supply chains, India must actively diversify access
through partnerships that go beyond transactional imports. International engagement should
prioritise co-investment, long-term offtake, technology collaboration and “value-chain stack” Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 69
Policy Suggestions
arrangements that embed India within resilient, shared supply networks, rather than isolated or
opportunistic sourcing relationships.
Principle 4: Treat environmental and social performance as a core supply-
security requirement
Weak environmental and social safeguards increase project risk, undermine social licence to
operate, and can disrupt supply chains through litigation, delays, and community opposition.
Fast-tracking approvals should therefore not dilute standards. Policy approaches should instead
reinforce robust standards, safeguards, traceability, transparency, and independent verification
as essential enablers of long-term supply security and global market access.
Principle 5: Prioritise mission-oriented innovation and leap-frog
technologies
India should avoid locking itself into late-stage replication of existing technologies and processes.
Innovation policy should instead prioritise mission-driven R&D, structured pilot-to-commercial
pathways, and next-generation technologies that reduce cost, environmental footprint, and
strategic dependence. This approach positions India to build competitive capability aligned with
future technology transitions, rather than remaining dependent on incumbent process routes.
Principle 6: Strengthen institutional capacity, data systems, and centre-
state coordination
Effective critical minerals governance depends on strong institutions, reliable data, and
coordinated decision-making across various levels of government. Policies should be guided
by integrated mineral flow data, shared analytical baselines, and clearly defined centre-state
roles. Strengthening these institutional foundations is essential to ensure that demand signals,
supply-side interventions, and industrial development remain aligned and adaptive over time.
The suggestions that follows operationalises these principles into a set of policy actions. They
are organised into five thematic pillars and can be read as a coherent package based on:
i. Domestic mining measures that accelerate discovery-to-production without eroding
legitimacy
ii. Technology actions that close readiness and scale-up gaps
iii. International strategies to manage concentration and market risk
iv. Interventions to unlock midstream and circularity capacity
v. Governance measures that institutionalise strategy, risk assessment, calibration, and
delivery accountability.
Each pillar specifies discrete actions and their core implementation parameters, while avoiding
duplication of existing schemes or mandates. The pillars are intended to function as a coherent
package, with each addressing a distinct constraint and reinforcing the others through
sequencing rather than overlap. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 70
Policy Suggestions
7.2 SUGGESTIONS
Pillar-1: Strengthen domestic exploration and mining
Domestic exploration and mining remain necessary components of India’s Critical Energy
Transition Mineral supply base, notwithstanding long development timelines and geological
uncertainty. This pillar focuses on modernising exploration access, improving the credibility
and usability of geological information, aligning public sector capabilities, and strengthening
permitting coordination while preserving environmental and social accountability.
a. Rebalance exploration access and licensing pathways
Conditional First-Come, First-Served (FCFS) access may be introduced for early-stage exploration
of priority critical minerals. It should also be linked to mandatory data disclosure, time-bound
milestones, and rights-based progression to mining leases upon successful discovery. Further,
clear thresholds should be defined for the transition from FCFS to auction after attaining a
sector-level maturity.
b. Make private-sector participation the default for early-stage exploration
Adopt private-sector award as the default pathway for exploration licences for critical minerals,
using conditional First-Come, First-Served (FCFS) mechanisms (preferred over auction)
appropriate to geological uncertainty and till market matures.
c. Improve geological knowledge and data credibility
Mandate Committee for Mineral Reserves International Reporting Standards (CRIRSCO)-aligned
reporting through Indian Mineral Industry Code (IMIC) and embed decision-grade geological
disclosure into statutory and regulatory processes, including licence conversion and development
approvals.
d. Align public sector mining capabilities with critical minerals priorities
Review and realign the mandates, asset deployment, investment priorities, and administrative
control of public sector mining and processing enterprises (e.g., National Mineral Development
Corporation, Coal India, Indian Rare Earths Limited) to ensure consistency with national critical
minerals objectives.
e. Preserve environmental and social accountability in project approvals
Retain public consultation as a targeted risk-screening mechanism, restrict expedited approvals
to compliant proponents, and mandate independent audits for fast-tracked projects.
f. Improve permitting coordination for critical mineral projects through a
dedicated coordination committee
Coordinated permitting guidance for Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) projects should be
issued to improve sequencing and enable parallel processing across approvals, with establishing
single-point coordination mechanisms without altering statutory decision-making authority. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 71
Policy Suggestions
A Chief Secretary-chaired coordination committee may be constituted to resolve inter-
departmental bottlenecks and monitor applications through digital permitting dashboards
tracking status, dependencies and decision timelines.
Pillar-2: Build domestic innovation and technology capability for critical
raw materials
India’s long-term critical raw materials supply resilience depends on the ability to develop, adapt,
and deploy processing, separation, refining, and recycling technologies domestically. This pillar
focuses on organising R&D around deployment outcomes, strengthening pilot-to-commercial
pathways, and structuring international technology engagement to support domestic absorption
rather than persistent dependence.
a. Establish a mission-oriented R&D framework for critical raw materials
A mission-oriented R&D framework should be established, focusing on priority minerals,
materials, precursors, and processing technologies identified through national risk assessments.
Funding can be shifted from fragmented, project-based approach toward outcome-oriented
missions linked to deployment needs in refining, recycling, and associated manufacturing.
b. Create pilot-to-commercialisation pathways for priority technologies
Shared pilot and demonstration infrastructure are needed for priority processing, refining, and
recycling technologies, with transparent access rules for start-ups, MSMEs, and private firms.
VGF and other risk-sharing instruments should be provided for first-of-a-kind deployments,
including concessional finance, guarantees, and time-bound performance-linked support tied
to recovery, purity, and environmental benchmarks.
c. Enable structured international technology co-development and absorption
Structure bilateral and plurilateral technology co-development arrangements or programmes
covering joint pilots, shared IP generation, and researcher mobility in priority Critical Raw Material
(CRM) technologies. Domestic capability-building requirements (such as local engineering
development, workforce training, and phased localisation) can be embedded within international
technology partnerships and incentive frameworks.
Public support should prioritise technologies with demonstrable pathways to domestic
absorption and scale, avoiding open-ended dependence on licensed or proprietary processes.
Pillar-3: Diversify international supply sources and reduce import risk
India’s dependence on a narrow set of countries and firms for critical minerals exposes clean-
energy and manufacturing value chains to geopolitical and market risks. This pillar reduces
vulnerability through risk-differentiated partnerships, shared value-chain arrangements and
coordinated overseas facilitation.
a. Diversify overseas mineral access through risk-differentiated partnerships
Critical minerals need to be classified by concentration and geopolitical exposure, and their risk
profile can be translated into differentiated engagement strategies. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 72
Policy Suggestions
b. Embed India in resilient global value-chain arrangements
Minerals suitable for value-chain stack partnerships, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth
materials, should be identified for pilot shared processing and refining hubs through bilateral
and plurilateral frameworks.
c. De-risk overseas access through aggregation and facilitation
Project preparation support should be established, alongside aggregate demand for equity and
offtake, and coordinate overseas engagement through a single-window facilitation platform.
d. Strengthen KABIL for overseas Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM)
execution
KABIL’s execution capacity requires strengthening through calibrated capitalisation, targeted
lateral recruitment in international mining and project finance, and prioritised overseas CETM
project pipeline. For this, partnerships with overseas-facing PSUs and public financial institutions
can leverage their due diligence, negotiation, and asset operation expertise while retaining
KABIL’s focused CETM mandate.
e. Reduce market risk through improved price discovery and hedging
Facilitate access to relevant global mineral exchanges and develop India-linked instruments
where required, integrating market signals into sourcing and stockpiling decisions.
Pillar-4: Scale circularity and refining
India’s Critical Energy Transition Mineral (CETM) supply constraints are concentrated in
midstream refining and recycling capacity rather than in downstream manufacturing alone.
This pillar operationalises the midstream and circularity constraints identified in Chapter 5 by
focusing on economic viability, feedstock access, and technology availability for refining and
advanced recycling, while maintaining environmental and social compliance.
a. Make refining and advanced recycling economically viable
A coordinated package of incentives combining capital support, output-linked incentives, and tax
rationalisation is required for Critical Energy Transition Mineral refining and advanced recycling
facilities. First-of-a-kind and scale-up projects should be prioritised to produce high-purity
materials relevant to downstream manufacturing. National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM)-
linked processing cluster support can also be extended to advanced recycling hubs, enabling
land access, shared infrastructure, and anchor-firm-led cluster models. Verification of Extended
Producer Responsibility (EPR) compliance and third-party audits need to be strengthened to
ensure that fiscal and financial incentives accrue only to authorised and compliant refining and
recycling operators.
b. Secure access to critical refining and recycling technologies
Facilitate access to priority refining and recycling technologies through bilateral and multilateral
cooperation frameworks, with clearly defined capability-building requirements linked to domestic
absorption and operation. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 73
Policy Suggestions
c. Unlock reliable secondary feedstock for Critical Energy Transition Mineral
(CETMs)
Waste-management and import regulations need amendment to permit authorised refining and
recycling entities to import traceable, high-value CETM-bearing scrap and end-of-life products
under strict environmental standards. Further, protocols can be issued for authorised access
to mine tailings and legacy waste for CETM recovery. For this, one-time national potential
assessment can be undertaken for tailings relevant to critical minerals.
Pillar-5: Institutional architecture for national critical raw materials
governance
The actions in this section establish enabling conditions for Pillars 1-4. They are intended to
support coherent, whole-of-government implementation rather than operate as a standalone
thematic pillar.
The preceding synthesis highlights that India’s critical minerals challenge increasingly reflects
system-level governance gaps rather than deficiencies in individual policy instruments. As the
scope of concern expands from Critical Energy Transition Minerals to a broader set defined
better as Critical Raw Materials, including specific grades of outputs, intermediate materials,
processing reagents, specialised equipment and enabling technologies, the need for durable,
cross-cutting governance functions becomes more pronounced.
While execution responsibility is appropriately distributed across line ministries and mission-
mode programmes such as National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM), effective Critical Raw
Material governance requires institutional functions that operate across mandates and time
horizons. In particular, the synthesis identifies four persistent gaps: fragmented scope-setting,
reactive risk assessment, limited calibration of policy and market instruments, and the absence
of differentiated stewardship for system-critical projects.
The Institutional Architecture set out below is designed to address these gaps by separating
strategy from execution, strengthening system-level intelligence and prioritisation, and enabling
timely escalation and coordination, without duplicating existing authorities or displacing line-
ministry accountability.
a. Establish a National Critical Raw Material (CRM) analytical unit for strategy
and system-level risk assessment: Constitute a CRM analytical unit responsible
for:
i. Setting strategic scope across CRMs beyond a mineral-only or mining-centric lens;
ii. Maintaining the Net Zero Technology and Materials Roadmap as a living, regularly
updated framework. This report provides the initial consolidated roadmap and analytical
foundation, which should be periodically updated as technologies, deployment
pathways, and material intensity data evolve.
iii. Undertaking periodic, system-level risk assessments spanning domestic and international
supply, primary and secondary sources, and enabling inputs such as technologies and
equipment; and
iv. Developing and periodically updating a National Critical Raw Materials Strategy. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 74
Policy Suggestions
Design Safeguard: The analytical unit should not execute programmes, own budgets, coordinate
approvals, or assume line-ministry functions. Its role is limited to strategy, prioritisation, risk
assessment, and structured escalation.
b. Develop a National Critical Raw Materials Strategy on a recurring basis. The
Strategy should:
i. Consolidate demand signals (including outputs from the Net Zero Technology &
Materials Roadmap);
ii. Integrate supply-risk assessments across minerals, materials, and enabling technologies;
Risk & Early-Warning Assessment to include indicators such as import concentration,
processing bottlenecks, technology chokepoints, geopolitical exposure and
environmental or social risk flags.
iii. Identify priority raw materials, value chains, and strategic CRM projects; and
iv. Define sequencing, calibration, and escalation logic across ministries and states.
Scope Clarity: The strategy should guide missions and policies, not replace them. It should
remain adaptive, analytical, and strategic rather than evolving into a programme or scheme.
c. Enable strategic project designation, stewardship, and delivery coordination:
Constitute an Inter-Ministerial Committee (IMC) to:
i. Develop coordinated guidance to periodically review the performance of existing
policy and market instruments, such as stockpiling frameworks, offtake arrangements,
incentive structures, and approval timelines against strategic objectives and evolving
risk profiles. The IMC will also review the role played by the analytical unit and suggest
improvements.
ii. IMC may co-opt state government units wherever applicable to resolve inter-
departmental bottlenecks and monitor progress, supported by digital permitting
dashboards tracking application status, dependencies, and decision timelines.
iii. Identify a limited set of strategic critical raw materials projects across mining, processing,
recycling, technology demonstration, and overseas sourcing whose outcomes have
system-wide implications for supply security, market confidence, or downstream
industrial viability.
iv. Apply differentiated treatment to designated strategic projects, including priority
handling, coordinated sequencing of approvals, targeted access to incentives and
finance, and active inter-agency bottleneck resolution, without diluting statutory
environmental or social safeguards. ANNEXURES Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 76
Annexures
Annex A LIST OF CRITICAL MINERALS AND CETM
Table A.1: List of Critical Minerals and CETM
No.
Mineral /
Element
Group
CETM
(WG4)
MMDR
Part D
No.
Mineral /
Element
Group
CETsM
(WG4)
MMDR
Part D
1Cadmium Element 22.1Cerium REE (Light)
2Cobalt Element 22.2Lanthanum REE (Light)
3Gallium Element 22.3Neodymium REE (Light)
4Graphite Element 22.4PraseodymiumREE (Light)
5Indium Element 22.5Europium REE (Light)
6Lithium Element 22.6Promethium REE (Light)
7Molybdenum Element 22.7Samarium REE (Light)
8Nickel Element 22.8Dysprosium REE (Heavy)
9Niobium Element 22.9Gadolinium REE (Heavy)
10Selenium Element 22.10Terbium REE (Heavy)
11Tellurium Element 22.11Yttrium
REE-like
(Heavy)
12Tin Element 22.12Erbium REE (Heavy)
13Titanium Element 22.13Holmium REE (Heavy)
14Tungsten Element 22.14Lutetium REE (Heavy)
15Vanadium Element 22.15Thulium REE (Heavy)
16Zirconium Element 22.16Ytterbium REE (Heavy)
17Copper Element 22.17Scandium
REE-like
(Light)
18Germanium Element 23Phosphates Element
19Silicon Element 24Beryllium Element
20Strontium Element 25
Potash
(Glauconite)
Element
21.1Iridium PGE 26Rhenium Element
21.2Platinum PGE 27Tantalum Element
21.3Osmium PGE 28Antimony Element
21.4Palladium PGE 29Bismuth Element
21.5Rhodium PGE 30Hafnium Element
21.6Ruthenium PGE Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 77
Annexures
Annex B METHODOLOGIES IN DETAIL
CETM demand assessment for Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen
1. Technology Variants and Market Share Projections: Technology variants are specific
subtypes or configurations within a broader low-carbon technology category. For
example, EV batteries include multiple battery chemistries such as LFP, Lithium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC532, NMC811), and the newly commercialised Sodium
Ion battery have been considered among others. The future market shares of these
technology variants were projected primarily from existing studies and expert literature.
Given the limited availability of precise market share data, especially for emerging
technologies, a heuristic approach was adopted. Market shares were projected
based on the Technology Readiness Level (TRL), efficiency, and End-of-Life (EOL)
characteristics of each technology variant.
Variants with high maturity levels (TRL 8–9) are expected to experience gradual
reductions in market share due to competition from emerging technologies.
Conversely, variants with less mature technology (TRL 4–7) are expected to gain share
as technological advancements improve their commercial viability. Annex D lists the
market share of all technology variants considered in this study. For EOL assumptions,
clean energy technologies that retire at least 20 years after their commercialisation
has been included.
2. Estimating Mineral Intensity: Mineral intensities for each technology variant were
sourced from comprehensive industry studies and relevant literature. For renewable
power-generation technologies like Solar PV, CSP, and wind, mineral intensity is
expressed in tonnes per gigawatt (t/GW), consistent with their rated power-generating
capacities. For BESS, mineral intensity is expressed in tonnes per gigawatt hour (t/
GWh) aligning with their energy storage capacities. Electrolyser capacities were
estimated using projected Green Hydrogen production data provided by NITI Aayog,
coupled with efficiency data for different electrolyser variants, expressed in t/GW.
3. Calculating Cumulative Embedded Mineral Demand: The cumulative mineral demand
for each technology variant was calculated by combining the annual projected
installed capacity required of each low-carbon technology, evolving market shares of
the technology variants, and mineral intensities of each variant.
The following equation explains the cumulative embedded mineral content for a
specific mineral in a technology variant:
()()
() ()
=
= ××
∑
t
ym,vv,y m,v
y 2025
C t IS M
C
(m,v)
(t) = Cumulative embedded mineral content of mineral ?????? in technology variant
?????? by end year ?????? .
?????? = one of the 30 critical minerals
I
Y
= Total annual installations (e.g., MW capacity, number of EVs, etc.) of the
low-carbon technology category (e.g., Solar PV, Wind, etc.) in year ??????. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 78
Annexures
?????? = start year for annual critical mineral calculation beginning with 2025, ending in
year ?????? (2030, 2047 and 2070)
S
(v.y)
= Market share (%) (0–1) of the specific technology variant ?????? within the low-
carbon technology category in year ??????.
m
(m.v)
= Embedded mineral intensity (e.g., kg mineral per MW installed or per unit) of
mineral ?????? in technology variant ??????.
Key assumptions:
Mineral intensity per technology variant remains constant over time.
Variations in cumulative mineral content are driven entirely by:
Annual installations of technology category (changing over time as energy demand
increases)
Market share variation of the technology variant (changing over time as more
efficient technology variants mature and commercialise)
Methodology for recovery of CETM from E-waste
This study estimates the volume of e-waste available for recycling and the potential recovery of
CETMs based on data from the state annual reports. Data on e-waste generation was collected
from 10 states with 2022 as the base year. In instances where 2022 data was unavailable, data from
adjacent years was used. The types of e-waste analysed include Consumer Electrical and Electronics
Waste (CEEW) and Information Technology and Telecommunication Equipment Waste (ITEW).₄ ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₆₃fifl− ₄₂₂₆₃ ₄₂₂₆₃ ₄₂₂₆₃ ₄₂₂₆₃ ₄₂₆₃fi ₄₂₆₃fi ₄₂₆₃fifl ₄₂₆₃fifl ₄₂₆₃fi ₄₂₆₃fi ₄₂₆₃fi
Figure A.1: E-waste Generated (ktpa) by Waste Types across India for the Year 2021-22 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 79
Annexures
Figure A.1 presents the quantity of e-waste generated in kilo tonnes per annum (ktpa) across different
categories in 2022. The e-waste forecasting methodology combined historical sales data (2011–
2023), product lifespan assumptions, and second-life usage to estimate future e-waste volumes. For
conventional electronics, the TNPCB (TNPCB, 2021) method using composite growth indices was
applied (Annex B). E-waste generation was modelled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution
12
to estimate end-of-life timelines.
Table B.1: E-waste Categories Analysed
E-waste categories
CEEW1Television Sets
CEEW2Refrigerator
CEEW3Washing Machine
CEEW4Air-Conditioners Excluding Centralized Air Conditioning Plants
CEEW5Fluorescent and other Mercury containing Lamps
ITEW1Centralized Data Processing: Mainframe
ITEW2Personal Computing: Personal Computers
ITEW3Personal Computing: Laptop Computers
ITEW4Personal Computing: Notebook Computers
ITEW6Printers including Cartridges
ITEW15Cellular Telephones: Feature Phones
Lithium-ion batteries
Solar PV panels
Spent Magnets
After e-waste forecasting, three steps were undertaken to estimate the recoverable material,
particularly CETMs:
1. Estimating E-waste processed: Two distinct scenarios were modelled to reflect varying
levels of policy ambition and infrastructure development; Current Policy Scenario:
Aligns with the official processing targets set forth in India’s policies for different
e-waste categories and EV batteries. Reform Scenario (RS): Assumes enhanced efforts
and infrastructure, aiming for an 85% processing rate for consumer durables. For spent
magnets, processing rates were 25% in BS and 40% in AS, and for solar PV panel
processing, rates were 70% in BS scenario and 90% in AS.
12 The Weibull distribution is a continuous probability distribution commonly used in probability theory and statistics.
It’s versatile model and can be used for a wide range of scenarios, especially related to time-to-failure or time
between events. This makes it a valuable tool for analysing reliability data, predicting failures, and understanding the
life characteristics of products or systems. It is characterised by two parameters: shape parameter (β): determines
the distribution’s form or the rate at which failures occur over time, and scale parameter (η): represents the lifespan,
influencing the spread of the data. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 80
Annexures
Table B.2: E-waste processed projections
Year Current Policy Scenario Reform Scenario
2023-202460% 85%
2024-202560% 85%
2025-202670%85%
2026-202770%85%
2027-202880%85%
2028-202980%85%
2029 onwards80%85%
2. Calculating material content in processed waste: To estimate the total material
content recoverable from processed waste, the e-waste processed was multiplied by
material intensities values for each product type. Materials extracted from e-waste
were categorised into two categories:
Critical Energy Transition Minerals Non-Critical Materials
Cobalt, Copper, Graphite, Lithium,
Nickel, Silicon, Platinum, Palladium and
Neodymium
Iron, Aluminium, Lead, Gold, Silver,
Zinc, Manganese, Plastics and Glass
3. Computing recoveries: A 95% recovery rate was assumed for minerals and metals
embedded in processed waste. This accounts for high-performance recycling systems
capable of extracting nearly all recoverable material from each waste stream.
Technology Assessment Framework (TAF) for Recycling Technology
A Technology Assessment Framework (TAF) supports decision making by helping stakeholders,
such as government agencies, companies, and investors-evaluate and adopt appropriate
technologies (Anjali Singh & Thirumalai N C, 2023). This is especially relevant in the context
of India’s formal e-waste recycling industries that are still at a nascent stage. A well-structured
TAF can guide the selection of the right recycling technology based on the waste type and
contextual priorities.
In this study, a technology assessment was carried out to identify the most efficient and
scalable recycling technology for e-waste. The assessment evaluated three technologies—
pyrometallurgy, hydrometallurgy (acid-leaching), and hydrometallurgy (bioleaching)—using a
technical, economic, and environmental (TEE) framework.
To undertake this evaluation, the study applied the Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by
Similarity to Ideal Solution (Fuzzy-TOPSIS) method, which enables systematic comparison of
alternatives under conditions of uncertainty (Choudhary & Shankar, 2012). Expert assessments
of each technology were collected on a 1–5 scale—Very Low (VL), Low (L), Average (A), High
(H), and Very High (VH)—and converted into triangular fuzzy numbers. This fuzzification allows
the model to incorporate variability and judgement more realistically than crisp scoring. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 81
Annexures
Technology
Economics
PyrometallurgyHydrometallurgy (Acid Leaching)
Hydrometallurgy (Bio Leaching)
Enviornment
60%
40%
0%
20%
Figure B.1: Typical Representation of Results from TAF
The Fuzzy-TOPSIS approach maps experts ranking with triangular fuzzy numbers to determine
the relevance of one criterion over another. A fuzzified decision matrix is prepared and the
fuzzy-(TOPSIS) is applied on the fuzzified decision matrix under each criterion considered in
this study.
Under the Fuzzy-TOPSIS approach, expert scores are translated into a weighted decision
matrix, and each technology’s performance is assessed relative to a positive ideal solution (best
performance across all criteria) and a negative ideal solution (worst performance across all
criteria). Final selection is determined using thze closeness coefficient, which measures how far
an option is from the negative ideal and how close it is to the positive one. A higher coefficient
indicates a better overall ranking.
This study also incorporates a modified aggregation method in which criterion weights are
derived from the distances between fuzzy numbers—an approach that prevents zero-weight
distortions and ensures that each TEE dimension is meaningfully represented in the final ranking.
The procedure of Fuzzy-TOPSIS starts from the construction of an evaluation matrix ?????? = [X????????????],
where X???????????? denotes the valuation of the ??????th alternative with respect to ??????th criterion. It can be
summarised as follows:
Step 1: Calculation of normalised decision matrix Z = [zij]
=…=…
∑
n
2
ij ijij
i=1
Z =X / X , j 1, , m, i 1, , n....(1)
Step 2: Calculation of the weighted normalised decision matrix V = [vij]
V????????????= Z???????????? ( ⋅) W??????, ??????=1, …, ?????? , ?????? = 1, …, ?????? ....(2)
Step 3: Determination of the fuzzy positive and negative ideal solution A+ and A −
??????+ = {V+1 , . . . , V+??????} =
∈∈
ijij
max min
V |j B , V |j C
ii
...(3)
??????− = {V−1 , . . . , V−??????} =
∈∈
ijij
max min
V |j B , V |j C
ii
...(4)
where ?????? is for benefit criteria and ?????? is for cost criteria. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 82
Annexures
Step 4: Calculation of the distance of each alternative from the positive ideal solution
and negative ideal solution
( )
++
=
= − = ……∑
m
iij j
j1
d V V , i 1, 2, 3 ..,n,
...(5)
( )
−−
=
= − = ……∑
m
iij j
j1
d V V , i 1, 2, 3 ..,n,
...(6)
Step 5: Calculation of the relative closeness to the ideal solutions
( )
−
−+
= = ………
+
i
ii
d
CCi , i 1, 2, 3, ,n.
dd
...(7)
Step 6: (ranking of alternatives): The closer the CCi is to one the higher the priority of the ith
alternative technology.₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₄ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₄ ₄₂₄ ₄₂₄ ₄₂₄ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₆₃fififi ₄₂₆₃fifl ₄₂₆₃fiflfl ₄₂₆₃fiflfl ₄₂₆₃ ₄₂₆ ₄₂₂₆ ₄₂₆₃₂fifl ₄₂₆₃fifl ₄₂₆₃fifl ₄₂₆₆₃fi ₄₂₆₃fifl−ć
Figure B.2: Material Requirements across Battery Chemistry (kg/kWh).
CETM Demand Assessment for EV – batteries and motors
The study applies a bottom-up techno-economic modelling approach that incorporates forecasts
of EV sales, component-specific technology trends, and material intensity estimates derived from
peer-reviewed studies, reports, and industry or stakeholder consultations. The model estimates the
embedded mineral demand of India’s EV market from 2025 to 2070, disaggregated by vehicle
segment, technology type, and scenario pathway.
Vehicle Sale Projections
EV sales projections for 2025 to 2070 were obtained from NITI Aayog’s integrated energy sector
models. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 83
Annexures
Technology Mapping
Each vehicle category was mapped to its corresponding technology components, including
batteries and motors. The average battery capacity assumed for each segment is given in
Figure B.3. ₄₂
Average Battery
Capacity: 3 kWh
Average Motor
Power: 3.65 kW ₄₂
Average Battery
Capacity: 10 kWh
Average Motor
Power: 6.5 kW ₄₂
Average Battery
Capacity: 55 kWh
Average Motor
Power: 55 kW ₄₂₆₃fifl
Average Battery
Capacity: 200 kWh
Average Motor
Power: 200 kW
Figure B.3: Average Battery Capacity and Motor Power for Each Vehicle Segment
Battery-chemistry distribution was modelled dynamically using historical trends and forward-
looking assessments from the IEA, drawing on both global and India-specific energy-transition
scenarios. The base-case IEA scenario employed in this study reflects a continued shift away
from cobalt-rich chemistries (such as NMC 111) toward higher-nickel variants (NMC 532, NMC
622, NMC 811) and increased adoption of LFP batteries, particularly in heavy trucks and entry-
level passenger vehicles where cost and safety considerations dominate (International Energy
Agency, 2021). The scenario also assumes that ASSBs begin commercial entry around 2030
and scale gradually after 2040 in premium and heavy-duty vehicles as improvements in energy
density and performance mature.
The model considered seven key chemistries: Lithium, Nickel, Manganese, Cobalt Oxide (NMC)-
111, 532, 622, and 811; LFP, and ASSB. Mineral intensity values were sourced from a combination
of academic research, life-cycle assessments (LCA) studies, and private communications with
industry experts and stakeholders. The intensity values (kg/kWh) for each chemistry and
component are summarised in the accompanying graphs.
Figure B.4: Mineral Requirement for PMSM Motors Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 84
Annexures
The analysis also assumes that permanent-magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs) account for
roughly 93% of EV traction motors, reflecting their global dominance due to high efficiency and
cross-segment applicability (Adamas Intelligence, 2020; Global PMSM Market Share Continues
to Rise Despite Soaring Rare Earth Prices, 2021). In the Indian context, current mineral-demand
projections assume that material intensities for batteries and motors remain largely static over
time, with only marginal improvements. Material-substitution rates remain difficult to model
given limited data and rapidly evolving technology pathways. As domestic R&D expands and
technological choices diversify, future assessments may incorporate dynamic intensity and
substitution parameters where credible data becomes available.
Mineral Demand Estimation Framework
Embedded demand for each critical mineral across EV segments was calculated using a
bottom-up, component-level accounting method. Technology-specific material intensities were
combined with projected vehicle sales and technology-share trajectories using the following
formulation.
M
i,w,y
= S
w,y
x C
w
x T
i,w,y
x I
i,w
Where:
M
i,w,y
= Embedded mineral ‘i’ (in kg) demand for vehicle type ‘w’ in a year ‘y’
S
w,y
= Forecasted vehicle sales of vehicle type ‘w’ in year ‘y’
C
w
= Average vehicle component capacity for vehicle type ‘w’ (e.g., battery in kWh and
traction motors in kW)
T
i,w,y
= Market share of the technology using mineral ‘i’ within vehicle type ‘w’ in year ‘y’ (e.g.,
motor type or battery chemistry)
I
i,w
= Material intensity of mineral ‘i’ per unit of the vehicle component (in kg/kWh or kg/
kW)
for vehicle type ‘w’.
Outputs were aggregated per year for each mineral to estimate the cumulative demand up to 2047
and 2070. The approach was kept similar to that of the other global demand forecasts such as the
IEA
(International Energy Agency, 2024)which are essential for a range of clean energy technologies,
have risen up the policy agenda in recent years due to increasing demand, volatile price movements,
supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical concerns. The dynamic nature of the market necessitates
greater transparency and reliable information to facilitate informed decision-making, as underscored
by the request from Group of Seven (G7. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 85
Annexures
Annex C MATERIAL INTENSITY
Table C.1: Mineral Intensities (in t/GW) of Solar PV Technologies
Solar PV
Technology
Nickel
(Ni)
Tin
(Sn)
Copper
(Cu)
Silicon
(Si)
Indium
(In)
Gallium
(Ga)
Selenium
(Se)
Cadmium
(Cd)
Tellurium
(Te)
Molybdenum
(Mo)
Tungsten
(W)
Graphite
Titanium
(Ti)
Lithium
(Li)
Germanium
(Ge)
Crystalline Silicon
Monocrystalline
Silicon
(mono-Si) PV
44503000
Polycrystalline
Silicon
(poly-Si) PV
44503000
Heterojunction
Silicon (HJT) PV
46004000
Thin film solar cell
Copper Indium
Gallium Selenide
(CIGS) Thin-Film
PV
64622 15435
Amorphous
Silicon (a-Si)
Thin-Film PV
4600150 48
Cadmium
Telluride (CdTe)
103.34600 5052
Perovskite
perovskite/
silicon tandem
0.1320.4560 2.259 0000.9720
Perovskite APT 3.22312.5092.987 4.707 3.4276.417143.7331.9440.0024
Source: Rajesh Chadha & Ganesh Sivamani, 2024; Wagner et al., 2024; Prabhu et al., 2021 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 86
Annexures
Table C.2: Mineral Intensities (in t/GW) of Solar CSP Technologies
Solar CSP
Technology
Categories
Copper
(Cu)
Molybdenum
(Mo)
Nickel
(Ni)
Titanium
(Ti)
Vanadium
(V)
Niobium
(Nb)
Parabolic
troughs
Linear
concentrating
systems
3200 200 940 25 1.9 0
Solar power
towers
Point Focus 1400 56 1800 0 1.7 140
Source: Pihl et al., 2012 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 87
Annexures
Table C.3: Mineral Intensities (in t/GW) of Onshore & Offshore Wind Technologies
Wind
Technology
CategoryWind turbine types
Copper
(Cu)
Dysprosium
(Dy)
Molybdenum
(Mo)
Neodymium
(Nd)
Nickel
(Ni)
Praseodymium
(Pr)
Terbium
(Tb)
Yttrium
(Y)
Onshore
GB-HS-
PMSG (GB
HS PMG)
Gearbox
Gearbox High Speed
Permanent Magnet
Synchronous Generator
115071107049041
GB-DFIGGearbox
Gearbox Doubly-Fed
Induction Generator
190031101849000
GB-SCIGGearbox
Gearbox-Squirrel Cage
Induction Generator
10004.71103449000
DD-EESGDirect Drive
Direct Drive Electrically
Excited Synchronous
Generator
62000110049000
DD-PMSGDirect Drive
Direct Drive Permanent
Magnet Synchronous
Generator
460021110210490357
Offshore
DD-EESGDirect Drive
Direct Drive Electrically
Excited Synchronous
Generator
115071107049041
DD-PMSGDirect Drive
Direct Drive Permanent
Magnet Synchronous
Generator
190031101849000
DD-HTSDirect Drive
Direct Drive High
temperature semiconductor
10004.711034490000.3
GB-MS
PMG
Gearbox
Gearbox Medium Speed
Permanent Magnet
Synchronous Generator
62000110049000
Source: European Commission. Joint Research Centre., 2020 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 88
Annexures
Table C.4: Mineral Intensities (in t/GWh) of BESS Technologies
BESS TechnologyBattery TypeGraphite
Lithium
(Li)
Cobalt
(Co)
Nickel
(Ni)
Copper
(Cu)
Vanadium
(V)
Titanium
(Ti)
Phosphorous
Prussian Blue
Analogues
(Na₂Fe[Fe(CN)₆])
(PBA)580
Lead-AcidPb-A
NASICON
(Na₃V₂(PO₄)₃
NVP598545
Vanadium Redox
Flow Battery
VRFB213400
Lithium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt
NMC 523883117183467
Lithium Titanate LTO54469
Lithium Iron
Phosphate
LFP11008700433387
Sodium Iron
Phosphate (NaFePO₄)
NFP457
Lithium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt
LNMC-8117508383650333
Layered Sodium
Manganese Oxide
(NaMnO₂)
NaMO2
Sodium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt
NaNMC83650
Lithium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt
LNMC-622883100183533317
Sodium-Nickel
Chloride
NaNiCl21500
Polysulfide Bromide PSB Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 89
Annexures
BESS TechnologyBattery TypeGraphite
Lithium
(Li)
Cobalt
(Co)
Nickel
(Ni)
Copper
(Cu)
Vanadium
(V)
Titanium
(Ti)
Phosphorous
Lithium Manganese
Oxide
LMO97000
Solid-State Batteries ESS200
Lithium Nickel cobalt
aluminium Oxide
NCA73310033717283
Sodium-Sulphur NaS
Lithium-Sulphur
Batteries
Li–S200
Zinc-Bromine ZnBr
Source: (IEA, 2023)
Table C.5: Mineral Intensities (in t/GW) of Electrolysers for Hydrogen Technology
Copper
(Cu)
Zirconium
(Zr)
Nickel
(Ni)
Graphite
Cobalt
(Co)
Iridium
(Ir)
Platinum
(Pt)
Silicon
(Si)
Titanium
(Ti)
Lanthanum
(La)
Strontium
(Sr)
Gadolinium
(Gd)
Cerium
(Ce)
Yttrium
(Y)
Alkaline
Electrolysers
(AEL)
533.332455066.67114.678
Proton
Exchange
Membrane
Electrolysers
(PEMEL)
0.531.71.40.191.050.61
Solid Oxide
Electrolysis
(SOEL)
14.1490.907611.791 14.1496.50841.28820.0381280.00531670.018950.062563
Source: (Teixeira et al., 2024)(IEA, 2021)(Koj et al., 2017) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 90
Annexures
Table C.6: Mineral Intensities (in kg/vehicle) for EV Battery Technology
Vehicle Type Category Lithium NickelCobaltCopper GraphitePhosphorous
2 WHEELERS
NMC 111 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.0 2.70.0
NMC532 0.4 1.4 0.6 1.0 2.70.0
NMC 622 0.3 1.6 0.6 1.0 2.50.0
NMC 811 0.3 2.0 0.3 1.0 2.30.0
NCA+ 0.3 2.2 0.1 0.9 2.20.0
LFP 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.3 3.31.3
ASSB 0.5 2.0 0.3 1.0 0.0 0.0
3 WHEELERS
NMC 111 1.2 2.2 2.2 3.3 8.80.0
NMC 532 1.2 4.7 1.8 3.3 8.80.0
NMC 622 1.0 5.3 1.8 3.2 8.30.0
NMC 811 0.8 6.5 0.8 3.3 7.50.0
NCA+ 1.0 7.2 0.3 2.8 7.30.0
LFP 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 11.04.5
ASSB 1.5 6.5 0.8 3.3 0.0 0.0
4 WHEELERS
NMC 111 6.4 11.9 11.9 18.3 48.50.0
NMC 532 6.4 25.7 10.1 18.3 48.60.0
NMC 622 5.5 29.3 10.1 17.4 45.80.0
NMC 811 4.6 35.8 4.6 18.3 41.30.0
NCA+ 5.5 39.4 1.8 15.6 40.30.0
LFP 5.5 0.0 0.0 23.8 60.524.5
ASSB 8.3 35.8 4.6 18.3 0.0 0.0
OTHERS
NMC 111 23.3 43.3 43.3 66.7 176.70.0
NMC532 23.3 93.3 36.7 66.7 176.70.0
NMC 622 20.0 106.7 36.7 63.3 166.70.0
NMC 811 16.7 130.0 16.7 66.7 150.00.0
NCA+ 20.0 143.3 6.7 56.7 146.70.0
LFP 20.0 0.0 0.0 86.7 220.089.2
ASSB 30.0 130.0 16.7 66.7 0.00.0
Source: Bhutada, 2022 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 91
Annexures
Table C.7: Mineral Intensities (in kg/kW) of Motors for EVs
Cobalt Copper Dysprosium Neodymium
0.000525 0.09 0.0026250.00525
Source: (Elwert et al., 2016)(Luke Gear & Dr Richard Collins, 2020)
Annex D MARKET SHARE OF EACH LOW-CARBON TECHNOLOGY
Market share of each sub-technology in Solar PV, Solar CSP, Onshore Wind, Offshore Wind,
BESS, and Electrolysers, respectively (cumulative for 5-year periods starting 2025).
The updated version of NITI Aayog’s IESS and the TIMES Model provides new capacity addition
values for Solar as a combined category. From the combined solar category, the separate new
capacity values for Solar PV and CSP are estimated by taking their share in total capacity from the
older version of IESS 2047 (V3.0). The resulting disaggregated values are presented in Tables E.1
and E.2.
Table D.1: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in Solar PV
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Solar PV Technology (under Current Policy Scenario)
Monocrystalline Silicon
(mono-Si) PV
52% 49% 45% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34% 32%
Polycrystalline Silicon
(poly-Si) PV
27% 25% 22% 20% 19% 18% 17% 17% 17%
Heterojunction Silicon
(HJT) PV
10% 12% 14% 15% 17% 18% 19% 19% 19%
Copper Indium Gallium
Selenide (CIGS) Thin-
Film PV
3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 11% 12%
Amorphous Silicon (a-
Si) Thin-Film PV
2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Cadmium Telluride
(CdTe)
5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8%
Perovskite/silicon
tandem
0% 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8%
Perovskite APT 0% 0% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
Solar PV Technology (under Net Zero Scenario)
Monocrystalline Silicon
(mono-Si) PV
50% 45% 40% 35% 32% 28% 26% 25% 24%
Polycrystalline Silicon
(poly-Si) PV
28% 24% 19% 15% 12% 10% 8% 7% 5%
Heterojunction Silicon
(HJT) PV
10% 13% 15% 17% 18% 19% 20% 20% 20%
Copper Indium Gallium
Selenide (CIGS) Thin-
Film PV
5% 6% 7% 9% 11% 13% 14% 15% 16% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 92
Annexures
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Amorphous Silicon (a-
Si) Thin-Film PV
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Cadmium Telluride
(CdTe)
6% 7% 9% 11% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13%
Perovskite/silicon
tandem
0% 4% 5% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11%
Perovskite APT 0% 0% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 10% 11%
Table D.2: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in Solar CSP
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Solar CSP (under Current Policy Scenario)
Parabolic
troughs
94% 91% 89% 87% 86% 84% 82% 81% 80%
Solar power
towers
6% 9% 11% 13% 14% 16% 18% 19% 20%
Solar CSP (under Net Zero Scenario)
Parabolic
troughs
75% 55% 45% 35% 30% 25% 22% 21% 20%
Solar power
towers
25% 45% 55% 65% 70% 75% 78% 79% 80%
Table D.3: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in Onshore and Offshore Wind
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Onshore Wind (under Current Policy Scenario)
GB-HS-PMSG
(GB HS PMG)
37% 39% 40% 41% 41% 42% 43% 44% 45%
GB-DFIG 22% 19% 15% 13% 11% 10% 8% 7% 5%
GB-SCIG 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
DD-EESG 32% 33% 34% 35% 35% 36% 36% 37% 37%
DD-PMSG 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12%
Onshore Wind (under Net Zero Scenario)
GB-HS-PMSG
(GB HS PMG)
43% 44% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45%
GB-DFIG 7% 5% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
GB-SCIG 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
DD-EESG 24% 25% 26% 27% 27% 27% 27% 28% 28%
DD-PMSG 25% 26% 26% 27% 28% 27% 27% 28% 28%
Offshore Wind (under Current Policy Scenario)
GB-SCIG 57% 56% 54% 52% 50% 48% 45% 45% 45%
DD-PMSG 31% 30% 29% 27% 26% 25% 25% 24% 24% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 93
Annexures
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
DD-HTS0% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 18% 17%
GB-MS PMG 12% 12% 12% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 14%
Offshore Wind (under Net Zero Scenario)
GB-SCIG 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
DD-PMSG 82% 84% 85% 86% 87% 88% 88% 88% 88%
DD-HTS0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
GB-MS PMG 12% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Table D.4: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in BESS
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
BESS (same market share under Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario)
Lithium Iron
Phosphate
86.0%80.0%75.2%70.3%65.8%61.2%56.5%51.4%46.1%
NMC 5230.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NMC 8111.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NMC 6221.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lithium Titanate 0.9% 1.5% 2.1% 2.7% 3.3% 3.9% 4.5% 5.1% 5.7%
Lithium Manganese
Oxide
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lithium Nickel cobalt
aluminium Oxide
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sodium Iron
Phosphate
(NaFePO₄)
1.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4%
Prussian Blue
Analogues
(Na₂Fe[Fe(CN)₆])
1.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4%
NASICON
(Na₃V₂(PO₄)₃
1.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4%
Layered Sodium
Manganese Oxide
(NaMnO₂)
1.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4%
Sodium Nickel
Manganese Cobalt
1.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.4%
Sodium-Nickel
Chloride
1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4%
Sodium-Sulphur 1.0% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2%
Vanadium Redox
Flow Battery
1.5% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 3.6% 4.0%
Polysulfide Bromide 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.2% 3.6% 4.0% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 94
Annexures
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Zinc-Bromine 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.2% 3.6% 4.0%
Solid-State Batteries 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 4.0%
Lithium-Sulphur
Batteries
0.0% 1.0% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8%
Lead-Acid0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Table D.5: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in Electrolysers
Year 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070
Electrolysers (same market share under Current Policy Scenario and Net Zero Scenario)
alkaline electrolysers
(AEL)
65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25%
proton exchange
membrane
electrolysers
(PEMEL)
25% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34%
solid oxide
electrolysis (SOEL)
10% 13% 17% 21% 25% 29% 33% 37% 41%
Table D.6: Market Share of Sub-Technologies in EV Batteries
Vehicle
Category
Battery
Type
2025-
2030
2030-
2035
2035-
2040
2040-
2045
2045-
2050
2050-
2055
2055-
2060
2060-
2065
2065-
2070
2Ws
NMC 111 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 532 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 622 11% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 2%
NMC 811 63% 65% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67%
NCA+ 6% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
LFP 8% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 15%
ASSB 0% 7% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
3Ws
NMC 111 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 532 8% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 622 11% 8% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 2%
NMC 811 63% 65% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67%
NCA+ 6% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
LFP 8% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 15%
ASSB 0% 7% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 95
Annexures
Vehicle
Category
Battery
Type
2025-
2030
2030-
2035
2035-
2040
2040-
2045
2045-
2050
2050-
2055
2055-
2060
2060-
2065
2065-
2070
4Ws
NMC 111 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 532 5% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 622 7% 4% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 811 22% 23% 21% 18% 14% 11% 8% 5% 3%
NCA+ 6% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LFP 58% 64% 68% 71% 74% 73% 70% 67% 63%
ASSB 0% 2% 5% 8% 12% 16% 22% 28% 34%
OTHERS
NMC 111 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 532 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NMC 622 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 8% 8% 8% 5%
NMC 811 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NCA+ 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LFP 90% 85% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%
ASSB 0% 5% 10% 10% 10% 12% 12% 12% 15%
Annex E DEMAND FOR CRITICAL ENERGY TRANSITION MINERALS
Table E.1: Demand for Critical Energy Transition Minerals at Different Time Horizons
Name
Current Policy Scenario (Tonnes) Net Zero Scenario (Tonnes)
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070 2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Copper 1447931 13917166 28532628 1882424 20623186 43563856
Graphite 279372 10237656 20862674 700016 14955111 30833997
Silicon 858502 4794167 8851178 924808 6738516 11874935
Phosphorous 80274 3409639 7668264 214298 5044803 11430049
Nickel 133218 2585554 5307677 253940 3758838 7530909
Lithium 27118 1119950 2601999 66305 1624768 3777590
Cobalt 11574 336336 660669 23598 478156 926934
Vanadium 1756 65802 253890 8274 149672 625455
Neodymium 4441 90600 185657 11689 154897 315898
Molybdemum 7230 71045 126440 11298 91786 170771
Titanium 150 8985 41642 635 20347 103070
Dysprosium 954 31410 67497 2363 47152 100488
Tin1330 11160 28417 1706 28318 88821
Tellurium 709 5789 13476 1047 14965 42618
Cadmium 622 4850 11588 788 12435 37227 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 96
Annexures
Name
Current Policy Scenario (Tonnes) Net Zero Scenario (Tonnes)
2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070 2025-2030 2031-2050 2051-2070
Selenium 260 2898 11377 460 7452 29430
Zirconium 2001 6930 11420 4001 19867 23919
Praseodymium 330 3624 6583 1092 9802 18849
Indium 117 1648 6296 208 4104 16587
Tungsten 0 315 1252 0 656 3385
Gallium 30 331 1300 53 852 3363
Niobium 4 56 318 10 265 1596
Germanium 241 804 618 126 798 928
Lanthanum 1.2 11 52 2 33 108
Platinum 0.7 4 11 1 11 23
Yttrium 0.1 1.2 5.4 0.1 1.6 5.3
Strontium 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.1 1.0 3.2
Cerium 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.5 1.6
Gadolinium 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4
Annex F GROWTH RATES FOR DIFFERENT E-WASTE CATEGORIES
Table F.1: Growth Rates for Different E-waste Categories
CAGR
(2018-
2023)
Deploy-
ment:
Household
Deploy-
ment:
Organisa-
tional
CGI
(H)
13
CGI
(P&I)
14
CGI
(O)
15
Weighted
Average
Average
Growth
CEEW1 TV Sets 2% 70% 30% 1.05 1.04 1.046 3.55%
CEEW2 Refrigerator 3% 100%1.051.050 3.88%
CEEW3
Washing
Machine
6% 100%1.051.050 5.62%
13 composite growth index (Households) =
Percapita Income growth rate Internet Penetration Household Growth rate
1× 1
100100100
+×+
14 composite growth index (Personal and Industrial) =
Percapita Income growth rate Internet Penetration cellphone growth rate Population Growth r ate
1×1
100100100100
+××+
15 composite growth index (Organisational) =
Percapita Income growth rate Internet Penetration Population Growth rate share of manufactu ring and services to GDP
1 ×1 ×
100100100100
+×+
Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 97
Annexures
CAGR
(2018-
2023)
Deploy-
ment:
Household
Deploy-
ment:
Organisa-
tional
CGI
(H)
13
CGI
(P&I)
14
CGI
(O)
15
Weighted
Average
Average
Growth
CEEW4 AC11% 60% 40% 1.050 1.04 1.045 7.66%
CEEW5
Fluorescent
and other
Mercury
containing
lamps
5% 70% 30% 1.050 1.04 1.046 4.76%
ITEW1
Centralised
Data
Processing:
Mainframe
8%100%1.04 1.037 5.64%
ITEW2
Personal
Computers
-4% 70% 30% 1.050 1.04 1.046 0.22%
ITEW3 Laptops 5% 70% 30% 1.050 1.04 1.046 4.69%
ITEW6 Printers 2% 30% 70% 1.050 1.04 1.041 2.94%
ITEW15
Cellular
Phones
5%1.19 1.185 11.93%
Annex G SHAPE, SCALE AND WEIGHTS PARAMETERS USED FOR
THE E-WASTE PROJECTION
Table G.1: Shape, Scale and Weights Parameters used for the E-waste Projection
CodeWaste Type
E-waste life
(yrs)
E-waste weight
(kg)
Shape
Parameter
CEEW1 TV Sets913.23.75
CEEW2 Refrigerator10344
CEEW3 Washing Machine9674
CEEW4 AC10475
CEEW5
Fluorescent and other Mercury
containing lamps
50.23.2
ITEW1
Centralised Data Processing:
Mainframe
10353.5
ITEW2 Personal Computers57.53.5
ITEW3 Laptops52.633.2
ITEW6 Printers106.53.8
ITEW15 Cellular Phones30.22.8
NA1 Spent Magnets: Wind Turbines 254502
NA2 Solar PV panels2592.5
NA3 EV LIB Batteries10454 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 98
Annexures
Annex H TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES IN PROCESSING CETMS
FROM PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SOURCES
Table H.1: Mapping of India’s Technological Capabilities in Processing CETMs
Type of UseMinerals
Battery MaterialsLi, Co, Ni, V, Graphite
Rare Earths & MagneticsNd, Pr, Tb, Y, Sc
Electronics/SemiconductorsGa, Ge, In, Te, Se
Alloying & StructuralTi, Nb, Ta
Primary Source
Metal Resource Availability
Process of
India
Merits/ demerits
Non-Indian
Process
Merit/ Demerits
Technology
Assessment
of Indian
process
Li
Spodumene,
Lepidolite,
Zinnwaldite
Yes, in
Karnataka,
Jharkhand,
Rajasthan
Yes, CSIR-
NML and
CSIR-IMMT
Beneficiation
gives 4.5% Li
2
O
98% pure Li
product by acid
process
Acid Process
in ABC,
China
Operational
with higher
Li content
99% LiOH/
LCE
At Par
Co Cobalt ore
Yes,
Odisha,
Jharkhand
Ye s
2ktpy by
NICOMET,
CUNCOLIM,
RUBAMIN,
HZL
Hydrometallurgy
and Solvent
Extraction
Acid Process
in China
99% Co salts At Par
Ni Nickel
Yes,
Odisha,
Jharkhand
EMEW at
HCL 5,400
MTPA by
NICOMET
Hydrometallurgy
with Acid
Acid Process
in China, US,
Australia
99% Ni Salts At Par
Nd, Pr
REE Ore,
Monazite
Yes, in
Gujarat
and Beach
sand
Ye s
99% extraction
in solution
Purification
uncompleted
Alkali-Acid
Process in
China
99% salts Not at Par
T b ,Y REE Ore No NoNo
Acid Process
in China
High Pure
oxide salt
NA
Ti
Titanate and
Titaniferous
magnetite
No
Yes, CSIR-
NML and
CSIR-IMMT
TiO
2
concentrate Kroll Process
High Pure
TiO
2
, TiCl
4
and Ti Metal
Not at Par
Graphite
Graphite
Mines
Yes, in
Odisha,
Jharkhand,
Tamil
Nadu
Yes, CSIR-
NML and
CSIR-NIIST
Column
beneficiation
TRL-9 Process
Beneficiation
High pure
graphite
At Par Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 99
Annexures
Metal Resource Availability
Process of
India
Merits/ demerits
Non-Indian
Process
Merit/ Demerits
Technology
Assessment
of Indian
process
V Vanadite
Yes, in
Karnataka,
North East
Yes, CSIR-
NML
AMV, and Fe-V
Alkali
Roasting
process in
CSIRO
High Pure
Sodium
Vanadate
At Par
W Zinnwaldite
Yes, in
Rajasthan
Yes, CSIR-
NML
Granite
beneficiation
WO3 from
concentrate
Alkali
roasting in
Poland
90% MOH At Par
Ga NIL NIL NANA
Alkali
processing in
China
Ga salt and
metal
NA
Ge Sphalerite
Yes, in
Rajasthan
NoNA
Acid leaching
in Brazil,
China
>90%
extraction in
solution
GeCl4
product
tested
NA
In NIL NA NANA
Acid Process
in C
ITO 99% NA
Nb
Ta
Cassiterite
(Sn)
Yes, in
Karnataka,
Jharkhand,
MP
Yes, CSIR-
NML and
BARC
52% Fe- Nb
concentrate
Nb, Ta, Sn salts
HF leaching 4N pure salts No
Sc NA NA NANA
Acid Process
in ABC,
China
90% pure
salts and
misch oxides
NA
Te, Se Copper Ores
Yes, in
Jharkhand,
Rajasthan
NANA
Alkali
Process in
China
Oxide Salts NA Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 100
Annexures
Secondary Sources
MetalResourceAvailability
Process of
India
Merits/ demerits
Non-Indian
Process
Merit/ Demerits
Technology
Assessment of
Indian process
Li, Co, NiLIBs1.2billiontpa
Acid
leaching
Patented at NML Applies on
all 7 LIB Chemistries 99% pure
salts •85% solvent/ chemical
recycling
Yes, Glencore,
Li Cycle,
Toxco, etc.
Focusses on LCO,
NMC
High pure salts
with fluid recycling
At Par
Nd, PrMagnets—
Acid
leaching
Patented at NML 99% pure
salts
Yes, Boliden,
Umicore
High Pure saltsAt Par
Tb, YPhosphors173mtpa
Acid
leaching
Patented at NML 99% pure
salts Eu, Y salts are derivatives
Yes, Boliden,
Umicore
High Pure saltsAt Par
TiRed Mud19mtpa
Acid
leaching
80% purity of oxide
Yes, Greek
Rud Mud
Consortium
High Pure Ti oxideAt Par
GraphiteLIBs1.2billiontpa
Acid
leaching
Patented at NML
90% pure graphite/graphene
Yes, Glencore,
Li Cycle,
Toxco, etc.
High Pure graphite
flakes
At Par
V
Spent catalyst,
Coal Slag,
Bayer’s Sludge
—
Varies
with Feed
Patented at NML
High Pure vanadium salts on
TRL-9
Yes, AVX
High Pure oxides
and metals
At Par
W
Tool Scrap and
Die Scrap
—-
Acid
leaching
Patented at NML YTO, APT,
Co-salt
Yes, BOLIDEN
Yellow Tungsten
Oxide (WO₃)
At Par
Ga
Red Mud and
Bayer’s Liquor
19mtpa
Solvent
Extraction
Patented at NML 4N pure
metal
NoNA—
GeZinc wastes6mtpaNANABolidenMakes Ge ProductNA
InLCD screens700tpa
Acid
leaching
Flowsheets with NML, IITRBolidenIndium Tin OxideYes
Nb, Ta
Tin Slag,
WEEE
capacitors
1.2billiontpa
Acid/
Alkali
leaching
High Nb, Ta recoveryNILNA
ScRed Mud19.68mtpa
Acid
Leaching
90% recoveryRUSAL>90% pure saltsNo
Te, SeCopper Slimes700 mtpa
Alkali
Process
99% Pure Se and Te metal
Powder with Cu regenerated
—-——NA Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Critical Mineral Assessment: Demand and Supply 101
Annexures
Annex I CUMULATIVE RECOVERIES FROM E-WASTE UNTIL 2047
(REFORM SCENARIO)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Cu Gr Ni Co Si Li Nd
Kilo Tonnes
Cumulative CRM Recoveries from E-Waste from 2023-47
CEEW1 CEEW2 CEEW3 CEEW4 CEEW5
ITEW1 ITEW2 ITEW3 ITEW6 ITEW15
Spent Magnets Solar Waste EV LIB Batteries
Figure I.1: Cumulative CETM Recoveries from E-waste Between 2025 and 2047
(Reform Scenario)
0
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 2040-2045 2045-2047
Copper (Cu)Nickel (Ni)Lithium (Li)
GraphiteCobalt (Co)Silicon (Si)
Neodymium (Nd)
Figure I.2: Share of Mineral Demand fulfilled by Recycled Minerals Between 2025 and 2047
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CRITICAL MINERAL ASSESSMENT:
DEMAND AND SUPPLY
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO