Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero- Sectoral Insights: Buildings (Vol. 5)

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Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings (Vol. 5)
VOL. 5
SECTORAL INSIGHTS:
BUILDINGS
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO Copyright © NITI Aayog, 2026
NITI Aayog
Government of India,
Sansad Marg, New Delhi–110001, India
Suggested Citation
NITI Aayog. (2026). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights:
Buildings (Vol. 5)
Available at: https://niti.gov.in/publications/division-reports
Disclaimer
1. This document is not a statement of policy by the National Institution for Transforming India
(hereinafter referred to as NITI Aayog). It has been prepared by the Green Transition, Energy &
Climate Change Division of NITI Aayog under various Inter-Ministerial Working Groups (IMWGs)
constituted to develop Net Zero pathways for India.
2. Unless otherwise stated, NITI Aayog, in this regard, has not made any representation or warranty,
express or implied, as to the completeness or reliability of the information, data, findings, or
methodology presented in this document. While due care has been taken by the author(s) in the
preparation of this publication, the content is based on independently procured information and
analysis available at the time of writing and may not reflect the most current policy developments
or datasets.
3. The assertions, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report are those of the author(s)
and do not necessarily reflect the views of NITI Aayog or the Government of India, unless otherwise
mentioned. As such, NITI Aayog does not endorse or validate any of the specific views or policy
suggestions made herein by the author(s).
4. NITI Aayog shall not be liable under any circumstances, in law or equity, for any loss, damage,
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constitute or imply an endorsement by NITI Aayog. Readers are encouraged to independently verify
the data and conduct their analysis before forming conclusions or taking any policy, academic, or
commercial decisions. SCENARIOS TOWARDS
VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO
SECTORAL
INSIGHTS: BUILDINGS
(VOL. 5) iiiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings vii
Authors and Acknowledgement
Chairperson
Dr. V.K. Paul
Member, NITI Aayog
Leadership
Sh. Suman Bery
Vice Chairman, NITI Aayog
Sh. B.V.R. Subrahmanyam
CEO, NITI Aayog
Dr. Anshu Bharadwaj
Programme Director, Green Transition,
Energy & Climate Change Division,
NITI Aayog
Sh. Rajnath Ram
Advisor, Energy, NITI Aayog
Core Modelling Team
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Senior Specialist, NITI Aayog
Dr. Anjali Jain
Consultant Grade II, NITI Aayog
Sh. Nitin Bajpai
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Authors
NITI Aayog
Sh. Venugopal Mothkoor
Energy and Climate Modelling Specialist,
NITI Aayog
Sh. Nitin Bajpai
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Dr. Anjali Jain
Consultant II, NITI Aayog
Lead Authors
Dr. Satish Kumar,
President & Executive Director, AEEE
Ms. Pratima Washan
Senior Expert, AEEE
Dr. Rana Veer Pratap Singh
Principal Research Associate, AEEE
Sh. Upendra Dwivedi
Manager, AEEE
Ms. Stuti Goyal
Research Associate, AEEE
Knowledge Partner
Sh. Prasun Pandey
Manager, CLASP
Peer Reviewers
Sh. Sharath Pallerla
Scientist G, MoEF&CC
Sh. Ajay Raghava
Scientist E, MoEF&CC
Ms. Neha Dhingra
Director, CLASP
Authors and
Acknowledgement Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings viii
Authors and Acknowledgement
Sh. Kishore Kumar
Senior Manager, CLASP
Ms. Ramya Natarajan
Research Scientist, CSTEP
Sh. Tarun Garg
Principal, RMI India
Sh. Sri Harsha
Manager, RMI India
Dr. Sunil Kumar Sansaniwal
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Dr. Sapna Bisht
Consultant, NITI Aayog
Technical Editors
Smt Aastha Manocha
Editor and Communication Consultant
(Independent)
Ms. Rishu Nigam
Lead Editor and Communication
Consultant (Independent)
Sanjay Chaurasia
Consultant – Graphics & DTP Designer,
AEEE
Working Group Members
Ms. Anna Roy,
Principal Economic Adviser, NITI Aayog
Sh. Rajnath Ram
Member Secretary of Working Group-
Adviser, Energy, NITI Aayog
Sh. Vishal K. Sinha
Young Professional, NITI Aayog
(Working Group Coordinator)
Dr. Shailesh Kumar Agrawal
Executive Director, BMTPC, MoHUA
Sh. Gaya Prasad
Deputy Director General, MoRD
Sh. Ashish Shinde
Joint Director (RH), MoRD
Sh. R K Gautam
Deputy Director General, MoHUA
Sh. Divyanshu Jha
Deputy Secretary, MNRE
Sh. Ajay Raghava
Scientist E, MoEFCC
Sh. Deepak Shrivastav
Director, MoPNG
Sh. Ashok Kumar
Deputy Director General, BEE
Prof. Milind Kollegal
Member, Council of Architecture (COA)
Sh. R K Oberoi
Registrar, Council of Architecture
Dr. Sanjukkta Bahaduri
Director, School of Planning & Architecture
Ms. Debolina Kundu
Director, NIUA
Dr. Yash Shukla
Principal Research and Centre Head,
CEPT Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings ix
Authors and Acknowledgement
Sh. Soumen Maity
Assistant Vice President, Development
Alternatives
Dr. Satish Kumar
President and Executive Director, AEEE
Sh. Tarun Garg
Principal, RMI India
Sh. Bishal Thapa
Senior Director, CLASP
Sh. Sanjay Seth
Senior Director, TERI
Sh. Yatin Choudhary
Fellow – Sustainable Buildings Division,
TERI
Ms. Ramya Natarajan
Research Scientist, CSTEP
Sh. Aditya Chunekar
Fellow, Prayas
Collaborators/Expert Consultants
Sh. Hari Krishna
Director General, CREDAI
Smt Jaicy Paul,
Chief General Manager (ESG & CFU),
State Bank of India
Sh. Aun Abdullah
Vice President, Lodha Group
Dr. Sameer Maithel
Independent consultant
Sh. O.P. Badlani
Technical expert-Owner, Prayag Clay,
Varanasi
Sh. Sandeep Ahuja
Technical Expert- Zigzag Technology
Sh. Anand Damle
Director, Damle Clay Structurals Private
Limited
Sh. Pritpal Singh
Executive Director, Department of Science,
Technology & Environment, Government of
Punjab
Dr. Nipun Batra
Associate Professor, CSE, IIT Gandhinagar
Sh. Nihar Shah
Presidential Director of the Global Cooling
Program, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory (LBNL)
Sh. Pradeep K. Mukherjee
Technical Consultant, Climate, CLASP
Prof M V Rane
Department of Mechanical Engineering, IIT
Bombay
Sh. Rajeev Ralhan
Partner and Leader, Clean Energy, PwC
India
Ms. Shalu Agrawal
Director, Programmes Power Markets, CEEW Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings x
Authors and Acknowledgement
Communication and Research &
Networking Division, NITI Aayog
Ms. Anna Roy
Programme Director, Research &
Networking
Sh. Yugal Kishore Joshi
Lead, Communication
Ms. Keerti Tiwari
Director, Communication
Dr. Banusri Velpandian
Senior Specialist, Research and Networking
Ms. Sonia Sachdeva Sharma
Consultant, Communication
Sh. Sanchit Jindal
Assistant Section Officer, Research and
Networking
Sh. Souvik Chongder
Young Professional, Communication
NITI Design Team
NITI Maps & Charts Team xiScenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings
Contents
List of Figures xiii
List of Tablesxiv
Glossary xv
Executive Summary xix
1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................1
1.1 Background 2
1.2 Tradition to Transition: India’s Living Knowledge for a Sustainable Built Environment 3
1.3 The Roadmap Development Process 3
1.4 Scope of the Analysis and Suggestions 6
2. Development Imperatives and Drivers of Change: Viksit Bharat and the
Net Zero Future..............................................................................................................................9
2.1 Economic Growth, Urbanisation and Need for Additional Floor Space 11
2.2 Better Affordability and Improved Standards of Living 15
2.3 Climate Change and Heat Stress 17
3. Current Building Sector Landscape...........................................................................................19
3.1 Energy Use and Emissions 20
3.2 Technologies Deployed and Penetration of Energy-Efficient Alternatives 22
3.2.1 Appliances 22
3.2.2 Building Materials and Construction Systems 25
3.3 Policy Baseline: Codes, Labels and Disclosure Gaps 29
4. Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results......................................................................35
4.1 Key Macroeconomic Assumptions 37
4.2 Estimation of Building Stock 38
4.2.1 Residential Building Stock 38
4.2.2 Commercial Building Stock 40
4.3 Estimating Operational Energy Demand 41
4.3.1 Residential Sector 42
4.3.2 Commercial Sector 43
4.3.3 Cooking 46 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xii
Contents
4.4 Scenarios For Energy Modelling 47
4.4.1 Residential Sector 47
4.4.2 Commercial Sector 48
4.4.3 Cooking Sector 50
4.5 Building Sector Energy Demand Outlook: Results and Trends 50
4.5.1 Residential Energy Services: Urbanisation, Appliances, and Comfort 50
4.5.2 Commercial Buildings: Floor Space Growth and New Demands 53
4.5.3 Transition in Cooking Energy: Clean Fuels and Changing Habits 55
4.5.4 Overall Energy Demand 57
5. Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition................................................61
5.1 Building sector energy and emissions data/ models 64
5.2 Building Energy Codes: Coverage and Performance Metrics 65
5.3 Building Energy Codes: Implementation and Enforcement 67
5.4 Market development 70
5.4.1 Demand-side Interventions 70
5.4.2 Supply-side Interventions 72
5.4.3 Research and Innovation 74
5.5 Workforce Capacity and Skills Development 75
6. Policy Suggestions.........................................................................................................................77
7. Conclusion and Next Steps...........................................................................................................87
Annexures..............................................................................................................................................91
References. .............................................................................................................................................99 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xiii
List of Figures
List of Figures
Figure 2.1 Building Floor Space Projections 2020-2070 12
Figure 2.2 Cooling Demand (Cooling Degree Days) Versus Current AC Ownership in Different
Countries 16
Figure 2.3 Projected changes in wet bulb global temperatures for South Asia under two alternative
socio-economic pathways and over 2040, 2060, 2100 18
Figure 3.1 Break-up of Current GHG Emissions from the Building Sector in 2025, With and Without
Cooking-Related Emissions 22
Figure 3.2 Market Share of Ceiling Fans and Variable Speed ACs by Star Rating 23
Figure 3.3 Comparison of Current Appliance Performance with Global Energy Efficiency Norms 24
Figure 3.4 Thermal Performance, Embodied Carbon and Market Maturity of Conventional Materials
and Low-Carbon Alternatives 26
Figure 3.5 Building lifecycle assessment stages and nomenclature as per ISO standards 29
Figure 4.1 Parameters Considered for Modelling Energy Demand in Residential Buildings 43
Figure 4.2 Benchmark Energy Performance Index considered for different building types in commercial
buildings (AEEE, BEE) 44
Figure 4.3 Parameters Considered for Modelling Energy Demand in Commercial Buildings 44
Figure 4.4 Parameters Considered for Modelling Energy Demand for Cooking 47
Figure 4.5 Energy Demand Projection from Appliances in Residential Buildings 51
Figure 4.6 Electricity Demand (Excluding Data Center) Projection for the Commercial Building Sector 54
Figure 4.7 Energy Demand Projections for Cooking Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero
Scenario (NZS) 56
Figure 4.8 Overall Energy Demand from Building Sector in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and
Net Zero Scenario (NZS) 57
Figure 4.9 Electricity Demand for Building Sector in Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero
Scenario (NZS) 59
Figure 5.1 International Example of Benchmarking Initiatives and Policies Mandating Data Disclosures 67
Figure 5.2 Status of ECBC Adoption in India 68
Figure 5.3 ECBC Approval Process for Telangana 69
Figure 6.1 Overview of Building Sector Suggestions for Net Zero Transition 81 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xiv
List of Tables
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Building stock projections for 2050 and 2070 12
Table 2.2 Current and projected national production in million tonnes (Mt) of key materials 14
Table 2.3 Estimated demand of key materials for the building sector 15
Table 3.1 Estimated building sector GHG emissions (2025) 20
Table 3.2 Energy Consumption for Key Appliances Used in Residential Buildings 22
Table 3.3 Embodied Carbon of Buildings Indian and International Case Studies
,
28
Table 3.4 Current Building-sector Policy Framework Across Asset Lifecycle 30
Table 3.5 Annual Avoided Emissions for Key Building Sector Policies 33
Table 4.1 Overview of Building Energy Demand Modelling Approaches in India 37
Table 4.2 Key macroeconomic assumptions for deriving building stock and energy demand projections 38
Table 4.3 Economic Segmentation of Households for the Urban and Rural Sectors 39
Table 4.4 Built up Area per Household Based on Income Group 39
Table 4.5 Projection of Commercial Buildings by Type, Showing Absolute Floor Area
(in Million sq m) and Share of Total Floor Area (in %) 41
Table 4.6 Energy Savings from ECSBC-compliant Buildings 45
Table 4.7 India’s Cold Storage Facility Type-wise Growth Projection 46
Table 4.8 Penetration Growth Assumed for ECSBC and its Superior Variants in the Building Sector 49
Table 5.1 Summary of Building-sector-Specific Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps 62
Table 5.2 Comparison of EPI Reference Values Under the BEE ‘Star Rating’ Program with
Good Practice Case Studies 66
Table 6.1 Summary Matrix of Proposed Policy Interventions 82 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xv
Glossary
Glossary
Building Lifecycle Carbon: Lifecycle carbon in reference to buildings entails carbon
emissions from all lifecycle phases, incorporating both embodied and operational carbon.
Carbon Emissions: In this document, any reference to “carbon” or “carbon emissions”
is to be interpreted as referring to emissions of all greenhouse gases (GHGs).
Cooling Degree Days (CDDs): Cooling Degree Days (CDD) is the sum of the
difference between daily average temperatures (calculated as the average of the daily
minimum and maximum temperatures) and the base temperature, typically 65°F (18°C)
for Indian climates, with the result being zero if the average temperature is below the
base (ASHRAE Handbook Fundamentals 2021).
Current Policy Scenario (CPS): The CPS refers to a trajectory where policies continue
as they are today, and improvements in building design and appliance efficiency continue
as per current trends. Technological advancements occur organically driven by normal
innovation cycles and without any influence from aggressive policy interventions.
Energy Conservation and Sustainable Building Code (ECSBC): The Bureau of
Energy Efficiency (BEE) notified the Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) in
2007 to prescribe minimum energy performance standards for commercial buildings in
India, which was subsequently revised and superseded by ECBC 2017. Building upon
the ECBC 2017 framework, BEE notified the ECSBC in 2024, which expands the scope
to include sustainability parameters in addition to energy efficiency, and similar to ECBC
2017 adopts a three-tier structure comprising ECSBC Compliant (mandatory), ECSBC
Plus, and Super ECSBC (voluntary). The ECBC/ECSBC is applicable to commercial
buildings or building complexes with a connected load of 100 kW or more or a contract
demand of 120 kVA or more.
Eco-Niwas Samhita (ENS): The Eco-Niwas Samhita 2024, also known as Energy
Conservation and Sustainable Building Code (ECSBC) for Residential, is a consolidated
energy conservation and sustainable building code that integrates the ENS Part I
(Building Envelope) and, Part II (Electro-Mechanical and Renewable Energy Systems)
and includes new provisions to improve the overall sustainability of residential
buildings. The code applies to residential buildings or residential building complexes Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xvi
Glossary
which has a minimum connected load of 100 kilowatt (kW) or contract demand of 120
kilovolt ampere (kVA) or plot area of 3,000 m
2
, whichever is more stringent. States and
municipal bodies may change the plot area based on the prevalence in their respective
areas of jurisdiction.
Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs): EPD refers to a standardised method
for presenting data regarding the environmental impacts of a product throughout its
lifecycle.
Greenhouse gases (GHGs): GHGs are gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both
natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within
the spectrum of radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, by the atmosphere, and by
clouds (IPCC 2021). This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H
2O),
carbon dioxide (CO
2), nitrous oxide (N
2O), methane (CH
4) and ozone (O
3) are the primary
GHGs in the Earth’s atmosphere. Human-made GHGs include sulphur hexafluoride
(SF
6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and perfluorocarbons
(PFCs); several of these are also O
3-depleting (and are regulated under the Montreal
Protocol).
Lifecycle Assessment (LCA): LCA refers to a methodical series of procedures for
gathering and analysing the inputs and outputs of materials and energy, along with the
related environmental impacts directly linked to a building, infrastructure, product, or
material throughout its lifecycle. LCA can be used to assess a range of environmental
impacts, including GHG emissions, acidification potential, eutrophication potential,
abiotic depletion potential, etc. For this document, the term LCA is used in the context
of assessing the GHG emissions associated with buildings or building materials/products
over their lifecycle.
Lifecycle Embodied Carbon: Lifecycle embodied carbon encompasses carbon
emissions linked with materials and construction processes across the entire lifecycle
of a building. This includes material extraction, transportation to the manufacturer,
manufacturing, transportation to the site, construction, use phase, maintenance, repair,
replacement, refurbishment, deconstruction, transportation to end-of-life facilities,
processing, and disposal.
Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS): As per the Bureau of Energy
Efficiency (BEE) in India, Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) are
mandatory, government-set benchmarks for appliances and equipment, establishing
the lowest acceptable energy efficiency level, below which products cannot be sold in
the market, ensuring consumers get energy-saving choices and driving manufacturers
to innovate for higher efficiency. The Standards and Labelling (S&L) program also
establishes minimum energy performance standards that appliances must meet to be
eligible for star ratings. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xvii
Glossary
Net Positive Energy Buildings (NPEB): As per BEE Shunya (Zero) Labelling
Programme, a net-positive energy building is one that relies on renewable sources to
produce as much energy as it uses and supplies excess generated electricity to grid,
usually as measured over the course of a year.
Net Zero (NZ) Scenario: The NZ scenario refers to a trajectory where significant
improvements in building design and appliance efficiency are achieved through
aggressive government policies that in turn stimulate rapid technological advancement.
Net Zero Energy Buildings (NZEB): As per BEE Shunya (Zero) Labelling Programme
definition, a Net Zero energy building is one that relies on renewable sources to produce
as much energy as it uses, usually as measured over the course of a year.
Operational Carbon: In this report operational carbon refers to carbon emissions
from energy consumed during the use phase of buildings, and is associated with
energy required for heating, cooling, lighting, powering appliances, and other functions
necessary for day-to-day operation and comfort of the building’s occupants.
Product Category Rules (PCRs): PCRs are standardised guidelines used in
environmental labelling and declarations, such as Environmental Product Declarations
(EPDs). They detail the rules and requirements for Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of a
particular product category.
Standards and Labelling (S&L) program: The Standards and Labelling programme
by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) aims to provide consumers with information
about the energy efficiency of appliances, helping them make informed purchasing
decisions. The program uses a star-rating system, where a higher number of stars (up to 5)
indicates greater energy efficiency and potential cost savings. This helps consumers
choose appliances that save energy and reduce electricity bills while also encouraging
manufacturers to develop more energy-efficient products. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xix
Executive Summary
Executive
Summary
The building sector is central to achieving India’s Net Zero Emission goal while meeting
Viksit Bharat 2047 development ambitions. The report lays down a strategic roadmap for
low carbon growth of the sector, advocating comprehensive building codes and enabling
mechanisms for market transformation including demand and supply-side interventions,
research and development, and workforce skilling. To inform the policy recommendations,
the energy demand projections to 2070 are structured around two scenarios: a Current Policy
Scenario (CPS) reflecting business-as-usual, and a Net Zero Scenario (NZS) aligned with
India’s 2070 target.
Development Context and Outlook
Economic growth, increased urbanisation and the need for additional floor space: Rapid
urbanisation and income growth is expanding built floor space, with total building stock
projected to increase more than two times by 2070. Factoring in the demolition rate for existing
buildings, 86% of the building stock that will exist in 2070 is yet to be built
i
. Much of the low-
carbon transition and indeed ‘infrastructure investment’ need sits outside the buildings sector
(e.g. power sector, as well as the industrial sector once embodied emissions from buildings
are taken into account). In contrast, the Net Zero pathway pursues deep reductions through
operational efficiencies, complemented by a near-zero-carbon grid by 2070 and switch to
low-carbon building materials.
Better affordability & standard of living: India is currently amongst the countries with
the lowest access to cooling despite the tropical climate. As economic growth spurs better
standards of living and higher per capita wages, historical trends have shown that this will
drive increase in appliance ownership and usage. Cooling is and will be the fastest-growing
end-use. Residential Air Conditioning (RACs) ownership is projected to grow from 8% in 2022
to 65% in 2050 and 80% by 2070 in both scenarios highlighting the need for super-efficient
appliances and equipment and passive building design elements to manage energy loads and
peak demand at the source.
i
Key macroeconomic assumptions informing building stock growth projections are provided in Chapter 4, Table 4.2 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xx
Executive Summary
Increased heat stress due to climate change: India is extremely vulnerable to the negative
impacts of climate change, in particular increased frequency and severity of heat waves,
rainfall events, flooding, cyclones and other hazards. Severe heat waves in India are expected
to increase 30 times by the end of the century even if global mean temperature rise is limited
to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels
1
. Extreme heat waves will exacerbate the need for more
cooling, putting further strain on energy resources and associated power infrastructure.
Mitigating climate risks and heat stress is imperative for achieving India’s long-term economic
and development goals. This requires wider adoption of climate-responsive design, passive
cooling strategies, and efficient active cooling technologies in homes and workplaces. Without
these measures, rising heat will increasingly affect health, comfort, productivity, and overall
economic performance. Building energy codes will inevitably need to evolve to enable this
transition.
Current Policy and Technological Context
Key building-sector policies: India’s policy and regulatory regime has been evolving over
the past two decades to bring in an increased focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy
generation and environmental issues. BEE’s (Bureau of Energy Efficiency) Standards and
labelling programme sets Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) and labels for
appliances and equipment
2
, and has facilitated a gradual shift to better efficiency alternatives.
Operational energy code for new commercial building (ECBC 2007, 2017) with connected
load greater than 100 kW have been adopted in 24 states & UTs. Operational energy codes
for new residential buildings are yet to be adopted and remain voluntary with limited uptake
to date (ENS 2018 superseded by ENS 2024). Currently, no specific policies exist to regulate
embodied carbon in buildings, apart from the voluntary disclosures included in the recently
launched (and yet to be adopted) building code (i.e. Energy Conservation and Sustainable
Building Code (ECSBC)).
Governance structure and policy implementation: The building sector largely falls under
state jurisdiction, with some aspects falling concurrently under both national and state
jurisdiction. This split governance structure across ministries and state-level government
bodies, and limited devolution of funds and functions to the local level, creates its own
set of challenges. Both Energy Conservation and Sustainable Building Codes (ECSBC) and
Eco-Niwas Samhita (ENS) are examples of well-designed policies facing implementation
challenges due to fragmented governance and institutional structure, and limited devolution
of funds and functions to the local level.
Technologies deployed and penetration of energy efficient alternatives: The market
share of efficient technologies has been gradually increasing as cost differentials narrow
down, and BEE’s Standards and Labelling (S&L) programme drives market transformation. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xxi
Executive Summary
However, there is significant scope to further drive energy efficiency improvements for certain
categories of appliances based on current international practices and norms. Minimum Energy
Performance Standards (MEPS) for air conditioners present the largest potential, with potential
for 45% uplift to align with global best standards. MEPS for Brushless Direct Current (BLDC)
motors and compressors have potential to be more stringent. The expanding market for efficient
appliances can be met by domestic manufacturing, including manufacturing of key supply
chain components, creates further economic opportunities. Targeted government support will
be the key for commercialization.
Building materials and construction systems: Embodied emissions from key building
materials, namely cement, steel, aluminium, bricks, and glass, make up 48% of the total
lifecycle emissions associated with buildings in 2025
ii
. There is significant potential to
reduce embodied carbon, which tends to be higher because of lower appliance penetration,
by mainstreaming low-carbon alternatives to conventional materials. For example, low-
carbon cements can reduce emissions by 50% compared to the ordinary Portland cement,
depending on the application. Notably, red brick is a major contributor to embodied carbon
in buildings but remains largely unaddressed within the existing industrial energy-efficiency
policies. Prefabricated construction systems and components, though not yet mainstream, offer
significant opportunities for resource and energy efficiency while enhancing build quality and
structural integrity. In parallel, integrated design thinking must be embedded across disciplines
to effectively manage trade-offs between operational and embodied carbon.
Modelling Approach, Scenario Outcomes, and Key Insights
Modelling Approach: The modelling results project India’s building-sector energy trajectory
from a baseline year of 2023 up to 2070. Energy demand is estimated for residential,
commercial, and cooking uses, focusing on operational energy. Modelling method includes
appliance stock and usage (residential buildings), building stock and Energy Performance
Indicator (EPI) projections (commercial buildings), and fuel-mix transition (for cooking). This
has been cross-checked with national planning tools (IESS, TIMES) to keep outputs policy-
relevant and consistent with India’s cross-sectoral Net Zero pathways.
Scenario Assumptions and Key Insights: The modelling results outline how India’s building
sector is likely to evolve under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and ambitious Net Zero
Scenario (NZS) . While total built-up area expands at a similar pace across both scenarios,
driven by economic growth, urbanisation, rising living standards, and the divergence emerges
in how efficiently this space is built, occupied, and serviced. Electricity becomes the dominant
energy carrier, and its demand profile is shaped largely by cooling needs, appliance ownership,
and growth in emerging load centres such as data centres and cold chain facilities.
ii
Refer section 3.1 for detailed narrative on analysis and assumptions. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xxii
Executive Summary
Stronger building codes, higher compliance, low-carbon materials, and adopting best-in-class
technologies play a decisive role in moderating demand growth. These measures, along with
system-level interventions, help India move towards a lower-carbon, more resilient building
stock aligned with long-term low-carbon transition goals. The following consolidated insights
highlight the most critical shifts shaping India’s building-sector energy trajectory.
Building stock growth and structural shifts: Commercial and residential building
stock expand 2.5 and 2 times respectively by 2070, with per-capita residential area
rising from 12 m² to 23 m², reflecting urban densification and rising aspirations. This
physical growth remains identical across both scenarios, making early adoption of
energy-efficient envelopes and stronger building codes essential to avoid long-term
lock-ins.
Electricity demand surge and deepening electrification: Building-sector electricity
demand rises roughly sevenfold under Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and fivefold
under Net Zero Scenario (NZS) by 2070, with electricity share in building energy
reaching 70%. Efficient and grid-interactive buildings can reduce peak demand and
associated investment in power infrastructure.
Cooling and appliance loads as major demand drivers: Cooling demand grows
sharply as residential AC penetration rises toward universal adoption (65% by 2050
and 80% by 2070), with cooling electricity demand increasing from 129 TWh (2020)
to 915 TWh under CPS and moderated to 604 TWh in NZS (2070) due to adoption
of super efficient ACs aligned with global best bench marks. Other appliance-related
consumption also grows substantially (112 TWh in 2020 to 302 TWh under CPS
and 225 TWh in NZS).
Improving compliance with building energy codes: Commercial code compliance
(ECSBC and above) improves from today’s low baseline to 35% under CPS and
60% under NZS by 2070. Residential compliance (ENS) progresses from 5% today
to 15% by 2050 and 25% by 2070. Effective enforcement, capacity building at
sub-national level, and green finance are pivotal to accelerate this shift and ensure
consistent, high-quality implementation nationwide.
Emerging load centres reshaping demand profiles: Data centres become a major
baseload driver, with IT loads increasing from 16 GW (2030) to 105 GW by 2070,
pushing overall data centre electricity demand toward 700 TWh. Cold-chain and
logistics infrastructure also grow rapidly, while cooking energy transitions toward a
more diversified mix (LPG share falling to 26% whereas PNG, electricity, and biogas
rise). These sectors require targeted efficiency programs, renewable-powered hubs,
and robust grid planning. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xxiii
Executive Summary
Key Structural Gaps and Priority Actions
Today’s regulatory framework reaches only to a fraction of the building stock; coverage centres
on operational energy and inadequately addresses lifecycle embodied carbon, heat stress, and
resource circularity. Implementation varies widely across States/UTs; data and feedback loops
are limited; and enabling market mechanisms for demand creation and supply-chain scaling
is limited.
A clearer understanding of the underlying structural gaps helps define the priority actions and
system enablers needed to accelerate progress.
Key Structural Gaps
i. Absence of a national building data platform: The absence of a unified, publicly
accessible national platform to aggregate and track building-level energy and
carbon data limits sector-wide monitoring, policy evaluation, and feedback loops.
This undermines the ability to evaluate the effectiveness of building codes, retrofit
programmes, and market interventions, and constrains evidence-based policy
calibration and long-term planning.
ii. Limited code coverage and narrow performance metrics: Current mandatory
codes apply to only a small portion of new construction and primarily target
operational energy. Embodied carbon, climate resilience, and circularity are weakly
integrated, constraining holistic low-carbon transition.
iii. Uneven State/UT code implementation: Enforcement capacity varies widely.
Compliance mechanisms differ significantly while processes and transparency
remain weak, with digital systems still emerging.
iv. Underdeveloped markets for efficient and low-carbon products: Market gaps
exist on both the demand and supply sides for green products. Commercialisation
pathways, including piloting, certification, and procurement linkages, remain limited,
slowing scale-up and investment readiness.
v. Data deficits in building and material performance: The absence of standardised
disclosures limits systematic benchmarking of operational performance, evaluation
of retrofit potential and appliance efficiency outcomes, and availability of India-
specific embodied carbon data, constraining the credible green-premium signalling,
and incentive frameworks.
vi. Skills and capacity gaps across the value chain: Officials, designers, contractors,
and workers often lack training on new materials, envelope practices, and energy/
resilience requirements, slowing adoption on the ground. Absence of dedicated
training on operational energy management for asset management professionals and
trades. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xxiv
Executive Summary
vii. Dependence on broader industrial low-carbon transition: Building-material
emissions remain tied to wider industrial policy trajectories for cement, steel, metals,
bricks, and glass.
viii. Need for targeted support ecosystem for research and commercialisation of
building products & technologies: Current programs have a wide remit, with no
dedicated focus on indigenous technologies. Limited feedback loop from field trails
and limited visibility on enabling policies and incentives hamper commercialisation.
ix. Persistent frictions in cooking transitions: Affordability constraints, behavioural
inertia, infrastructure gaps, and widespread use of biomass slow down the shift to
cleaner fuels (PNG/electric/biogas).
Priority Actions and System Enablers
Suggestions on policy interventions are structured under 11 themes, with their ambition and
scope progressively tightened over short (before 2030), medium- (before 2035), and long-term
(post 2035). Clear visibility on forward policy pathway is key to helping businesses make
more effective investment decisions, plan capex, and drive innovation.
i. Strengthen national building energy data governance to bridge critical gaps
in granular end-use tracking and policy evaluation by establishing a standardized
national demand-side energy data framework, beginning with a centralised data
architecture anchored within BEE’s Energy Demand Management Unit (EDMU) to
formalise inter-ministerial coordination.
ii. Tighten and broaden operational energy building codes for new commercial
buildings, including enhanced envelope and passive design requirements, quantitative
thermal comfort criteria for naturally ventilated buildings, and progressively ambitious
Energy Performance Index (EPI) targets. Expand coverage to small commercial
buildings with a simplified code akin to Eco-Niwas Samhita (ENS) for residential
buildings.
iii. Expand code compliance for new residential buildings for plot areas >500 sq.m,
with progressive tightening of energy performance thresholds.
iv. Close the compliance gap via third-party assessors (TPAs) to address capacity
crunch, digital state portals for verification and approvals, and consistent penalties;
publish compliance data to enable accountability.
v. Mainstream disclosures for operational energy and Star Labelling of existing
commercial buildings to unlock green premiums in asset and rental values. Underpin
policy implementation by setting up procedures for notification of designated entities,
reporting protocols and penalties. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings xxv
Executive Summary
vi. Link (local/ state) government incentives to percentage improvement over
mandatory codes, with incentives targeted at both developer and buyers.
vii. Target the cooling surge and increasing appliance use through best-in-class
appliance efficiency, stricter enforcement of Standards and Labelling (S&L)
programme through third party accreditation, expanding remit of S&L programme to
cover emissions from refrigerants, and progressive tightening of mandatory envelope
performance requirements under building codes.
viii. Initiate phased introduction of Environmental Product Declarations (EPD)
requirements for building materials and products, starting with the most emissions
intensive materials/ product categories. Put in place enabling ecosystem i.e. standard
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology and rules, approved independent
verifiers, and a searchable public register of accredited EPDs. Draw on EPD data
for periodic benchmarking and labelling of green products.
ix. Coordinate with industry policy (Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), Extended
Produced Responsibility(EPR)) to drive down embodied carbon across cement/steel/
bricks/ aluminium and allied products.
x. Supercharge market transformation for low-carbon materials and high-efficiency
products through time-bound fiscal support and incentives for ‘green’ products,
paired with public procurement pull.
xi. Invest in people, from frontline masons to design professionals, facility managers,
and public sector officials through structured, industry-linked skilling programs that
keeps pace with technology. Set up systems and processes to track and monitor skills
and training gaps, and improve training programmes as needed. Use Mission LiFE
to drive behavioural change and mainstream demand for efficient appliances (e.g.,
super-efficient cooling, lighting, fans) and better energy practices. 1
INTRODUCTION 2Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings
Introduction
1.1 Background
The building sector plays a crucial role in India’s economy, contributing to employment,
infrastructure development, and overall economic growth. However, buildings also account
for about 1/3rd of India’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, placing it among the highest-
emitting sectors. Total building-sector emissions comprise those generated through operations
(electricity and cooking fuels) and those embodied in building materials such as cement, steel,
bricks, aluminium, and glass. Embodied carbon emissions account for about half of the total
emissions in the buildings sector, commanding as much attention as the power consumption
of the buildings does.
The sector has transitioned from traditional, climate-responsive designs to energy-intensive
construction practices post-independence. Going forward, the sector’s energy demand and
emissions are projected to increase substantially due to a combination of economic growth,
increased urbanisation, rising incomes and improved living standards. Climate change adds
another critical dimension to the sector’s challenges, intensifying vulnerabilities such as heat
stress, flooding, and extreme weather events. The increasing intensity of heat waves will
amplify the demand for cooling, thereby exacerbating energy consumption and stress on the
power grid. Additionally, there are health and productivity imperatives.
Current challenges in India’s building sector are multifaceted, ranging from high operational
and embodied carbon emissions, inadequate penetration of energy-efficient technologies,
fragmented governance structures, limited enforcement of building codes, and gaps in
workforce skills. This highlights the need for a holistic approach that spans comprehensive
building codes and enabling mechanisms for market transformation, research & development,
and workforce skilling.
1 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 3
Introduction
1.2 Tradition to Transition: India’s Living Knowledge for a
Sustainable Built Environment
India’s pursuit of a Net Zero built environment is grounded in a deep civilisational legacy
of climate‑responsive design, rooted in the enduring concept of Dharma, which literally
means “that which sustains”. Long before modern global climate narratives, Indian building
traditions reflected intrinsically sustainable and climate-responsive design practices. Classical
architectural texts, such as Vāstu Śāstra, Mānasāra, Mayamatam and Samarāṅgaṇa Sūtradhāra,
conceptualised buildings as organisms in dialogue with the sun, wind and water, guided by
the axiom deśa-kāla-paristhiti (place, time, and context). This foundational approach aligns
directly with today’s fit-for-climate design and whole-life carbon thinking.
The Vernacular Wisdom
Across India’s diverse climatic regions, traditional construction practices embedded climate-
responsive and resource-efficient principles that remain relevant to contemporary low-carbon
transition goals. Vernacular architecture across hot-dry, hot-humid, and cold-seismic zones
employed passive strategies, such as courtyards, thermal mass, cross-ventilation, shading, and
locally sourced materials, to deliver comfort, resilience, and durability with low embodied
energy. From earthen and courtyard-based typologies in arid regions to permeable timber–
laterite structures along the western coast and timber–stone systems in the Himalayas, these
approaches reflect a long-standing tradition of building in harmony with climate and context.
This ethos is succinctly captured in the Samarangana Sutradhara: “
देशकालौ समीक्ष्यैव
वास्तुनिर्माणमुच्यते।
”, emphasizing that construction should be guided by careful consideration
of desha (place, region, and climate) and kaala (time and season).
However, the present context is shaped by rapid urbanisation, rising densities, and compressed
construction timelines. The scale and speed of development required to meet India’s growth
aspirations limit the direct replication of traditional practices. The challenge, therefore, is not
to replace this accumulated wisdom, but to reinterpret and integrate its underlying principles
into modern building systems, materials, codes, and delivery models that can respond to
current demands for speed, scale, affordability, and performance. Addressing this challenge
by aligning traditional wisdom with modern ‘green and resilient’ materials and construction
systems in a holistic manner, we can enable a more sustainable, low-carbon transition.
1.3 The Roadmap Development Process
Ensuring a resource-efficient, low-carbon and resilient buildings sector is critical to meeting
India’s development goals. Recognising this, the Indian government has taken significant
policy actions aimed at achieving long-term sustainability and resilience. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 4
Introduction
In April 2024, NITI Aayog established Inter-Ministerial Working Groups (IMWGs) to develop
pathways and policy actions for meeting India’s 2070 Net Zero target, keeping in view India’s
commitments on climate change at the UNFCCC, its development needs, and the goal of
becoming a developed nation by 2047. Specifically, a dedicated Inter-Ministerial Working
Group (IMWG) was created to address the complexities and challenges within the building
sector, chaired by Dr. V.K. Paul, Member, NITI Aayog. This illustrates the building sector’s
pivotal role in India’s socio-economic and environmental future. The Alliance for an Energy-
Efficient Economy (AEEE) was appointed as the Knowledge Partner to support the roadmap
development.
The remit for this working group was to examine options for accelerating adoption of
technologies to mitigate GHG emissions over the building lifecycle and recommend suitable
policy interventions. In parallel, NITI Aayog has undertaken energy demand modelling to
understand the impact of macro-economic drivers, technological transitions and climate
change on future energy consumption.
Objective of Working Group: Develop an integrated roadmap for low-carbon transition of the
building sector in line with India’s 2070 Net Zero target. Examine options for accelerating the
adoption of technologies to reduce GHG emissions over the building lifecycle and minimise
climate-induced heat stress, including low-carbon & circular building materials, envelope
design, & building services. Recommend suitable policy interventions based on cost-benefit
analysis, covering building codes for residential and commercial buildings, performance data
disclosures, financial incentives, behavioural nudges and market mechanisms needed to drive
uptake of relevant technologies and standards.
Terms of Reference
1. Energy & carbon growth trajectories:
1.1. Examine the growth in building sector energy demand and GHG emissions, considering
GDP growth trajectories and urbanisation aligned to development aspirations.
1.2. Examine the role of increase in the standard of living on appliance penetration and
usage.
2. Climate change:
2.1. Examine the impact of climate change on cooling demand and increased uptake of
active cooling.
3. Technology, design, and cleaner fuels:
3.1. Examine the role of efficient/ smart building design and low-carbon materials in
bringing down the energy demand, improving thermal comfort and reducing embodied
and operational carbon. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 5
Introduction
3.2. Examine the likely penetration and energy savings from super-efficient appliances
and equipment for lighting, cooling, heating, cooking and water pumping.
3.3. Examine the role of the shift to cleaner/alternative fuels/demand electrification on
energy consumption, emissions and energy security.
4. Behavioural, financial and macro-economic aspects
4.1. Examine the role of behavioural nudges (positive and negative) on energy consumption
4.2. Assess the potential of grid-interactive buildings in demand side management/demand
flexibility.
4.3. Examine the role of energy and carbon data disclosures, benchmarking of energy
consumption and performance standards.
4.4. Analyse financing instruments, market mechanisms and incentives to enable building
sector low-carbon transition, including their role in facilitating higher penetration of
building codes (ECBC, Eco-NIWAS).
Composition
1. Representatives from Ministries/Departments: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs,
Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE), Ministry of Rural Development (PMAY), Ministry
of Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate
Change of India, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas
2. Lead Knowledge Partner: Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE)
3. Industry and Civil Society Organisations: RMI India, CSTEP, CLASP, IISC, CEPT
University, TERI, Development Alternatives, NIUA, SPA Delhi, CREDAI, Council of
Architecture, Prayas
Three thematic sub-groups were created, as noted below, to enable better dialogue and
coordination with working group members who bring expertise and experience on specific
topics.
i. SG-1 Integrated Building Design: Examine barriers and related interventions for
enabling integrated design thinking in building envelope design to reduce lifecycle
GHG emissions and mitigate climate-induced heat stress.
ii. SG-2 Building Materials: Examine existing supply chains, skills gap, barriers and
related interventions (including innovation) for mainstreaming low-carbon building
materials and construction products.
iii. SG-3 Energy Use in Buildings: Examine barriers and related interventions for
accelerating adoption of energy-efficient appliances, building energy systems &
services, and clean/renewable energy generation technologies.
The terms of reference for the thematic sub-groups, as well as a list of organisations and/or
individuals that were invited to be part of the working group, are included in Annexure A. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 6
Introduction
1.4 Scope of the Analysis and Suggestions
This analysis goes beyond a narrow view of buildings as energy users. It takes a whole-life
perspective, covering the construction materials and supply chains, the design and operation
of buildings, and the lived experience of comfort, resilience and productivity. This framing
is essential to capture the full scale of opportunities and risks as India builds towards Viksit
Bharat 2047 and its 2070 Net Zero goal. The gap analysis and the proposed policy interventions
in this document cover the following aspects.
Operational and embodied
iii
emissions span the full building lifecycle that include the following:
8Manufacturing of building products and associated supply chains
8Building use stage covering emissions associated with operational energy use
for heating, ventilation, air-conditioning, lighting, and equipment; emissions
from refrigerants; and embodied emissions associated with maintenance, repair,
refurbishment and replacement of building materials and components.
8Building end of life, i.e., emissions associated with demolition/ de-construction,
transport, waste processing and disposal.
It is to be noted that while the roadmap addresses emissions across the whole building
lifecycle, quantitative energy demand modelling carried out by NITI Aayog has been limited
to operational energy use in residential and commercial buildings, including energy demand
for cooking.
Mitigating heat stress and enhancing climate resilience: This roadmap considers climate
resilience and adaptation aspects given the projected increase in frequency and severity of heat
waves, flooding, cyclones and other climate-induced disasters. Both climate mitigation and
resilience interventions need to be considered together to ensure a holistic approach to making
the building sector ‘future ready’, and to minimise impact on occupant health, productivity
and the economy.
Cross-sectoral measures: While this document focuses specifically on the building sector,
there are overlaps and synergies with both the industrial and power sectors. The suggestions
in the roadmap align with the low-carbon transition agenda for these sectors by reducing the
future additional burden on electricity grid infrastructure through improved energy efficiency
and integrated design, and nudging the manufacturing sector towards greener, low-carbon and
energy-efficient options through product environmental disclosures and other interventions.
High-level Strategic Roadmap: This is intended to be a high-level strategic roadmap. The
iii
Lifecycle embodied carbon encompasses carbon emissions linked with materials and construction processes across the entire
lifecycle of a building. This includes: material extraction (A1), transportation to the manufacturer (A2), manufacturing (A3),
transportation to the site (A4), construction (A5), use phase (B1), maintenance (B2), repair (B3), replacement (B4), refurbishment
(B5), deconstruction (C1), transportation to end-of-life facilities (C2), processing (C3), and disposal (C4). The nomenclature in
brackets used to refer to different lifecycle stages is as per the widely-accepted ISO standards 14040/14044 and European standard
EN 15978, as illustrated in Figure 3.5 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 7
Introduction
action plan will set out the mechanisms by which policy recommendations will be implemented,
and the roles and responsibilities of the implementing agency/ agencies, along with more
granular details on timelines and key milestones. 1 2
DEVELOPMENT
IMPERATIVES AND
DRIVER OF CHANGE:
VIKSIT BHARAT AND
THE NET ZERO FUTURE 10Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings
Development Imperatives
and Driver of Change:
Viksit Bharat and the
Net Zero Future
2
India’s vision for “Viksit Bharat” (a developed nation) by 2047 emphasises inclusive,
sustainable, and resilient growth, aligning economic development with environmental
stewardship. The building sector is central to achieving this vision. Buildings are long-term
assets, and therefore, what we are building today will be there in 2047, and a significant
proportion of them will still be standing in 2070. Locking in inefficiencies today will be an
economic burden for the future.
Within this context, following are the key factors affecting the building sector:
Economic growth, increased urbanisation and the need for additional floor space:
About 73% of the building stock that is expected to exist by 2050 is yet to be built.
This presents both an opportunity and a challenge. There is an opportunity to get it
right from the start by taking an integrated design approach and optimising the design
to reduce peak loads (and in turn costs for additional grid infrastructure), as well as
deliver better thermal comfort and whole-life carbon performance. The marginal cost
of integrating energy efficiency and low-carbon interventions is typically much less for
new build than retrofitting, plus there is potential to incorporate more comprehensive
climate-responsive and passive design solutions. The rapid increase in total built stock
will also drive significant demand for building materials and components, which are
both energy and resource-intensive. This presents a huge opportunity to scale up low-
carbon and resource-efficient alternative materials and construction systems.
Better affordability and standard of living: As economic growth spurs better standards
of living and higher per capita wages, historical trends have shown that this will drive
an increase in appliance ownership and usage. Enabling the uptake of more efficient
appliances through targeted policies will reduce energy consumption and peak loads.
Ensuring that this expanding market for efficient appliances can be met by domestic
manufacturing, including the manufacturing of key supply chain components, creates
further economic opportunities. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 11
Development Imperatives and Driver of Change:
Increased heat stress due to climate change: India is extremely vulnerable to the
negative impacts of climate change, in particular, increased frequency and severity of
heat waves, rainfall events, flooding, cyclones and other hazards. Extreme heat waves
will exacerbate the need for more cooling, putting further strain on energy resources
and associated infrastructure. Ensuring buildings are designed to be resilient to heat
stress and other climate risks will also help mitigate the negative impacts on occupant
health and productivity, and the economy.
The cumulative impact of the above factors means energy demand and emissions in the
building sector will increase significantly under business-as-usual growth projections for
the sector. This will result in significant upstream environmental impacts from increased
demand for construction materials and products, as well as require increased investment in
energy generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure. Relying solely on low-carbon
transition of the power grid is unrealistic given the costs and technical limitations, and also
because transport and industrial sectors are expected to add to this growing power demand as
energy systems in those sectors gradually shift away from fossil fuels. Ensuring a resource-
efficient and low-carbon building sector is important to mitigate these negative impacts and
to meet our developmental as well as climate goals.
The following subsections go deeper into the quantitative data related to the drivers discussed.
2.1 Economic Growth, Urbanisation and Need for Additional
Floor Space
Rapid economic growth and urbanisation will necessitate the construction of vast amounts of
new residential and commercial space. India’s building stock is projected to grow 2 times by
2050, and 2.5 times by 2070 relative to 2020 (refer to Figure 2.1 and Table 2.1 below). It is
worth highlighting that factoring in the high demolition rate of existing building stock owing
to suboptimal quality, coupled with consistent economic growth, 86% of the building stock
that will exist in 2070 is yet to be built.
Majority of this growth is expected to be in urban centres and will be driven by the need for
housing. The urbanisation rate assumes a continued shift in population from rural to urban,
increasing from 35% urban population in 2020 to 51% in 2047. This translates into circa
814 million people living in cities in 2047 compared with 471 million in 2020. In addition,
improving economic status and living conditions will also drive aspiration for bigger homes,
with per capita floor space expected to double from 12m
2
per person in 2020 to 23m
2
in 2070.
Expansion in the commercial building segment is equally significant, driven by India’s
accelerating economic growth and the expansion of its services sector. Commercial building
stock is projected to more than triple, increasing from approximately 1.3 billion m² in 2020 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 12
Development Imperatives and Driver of Change:
to around 4.4 billion m² by 2070. The proportion of commercial building stock in the total
building stock is projected to marginally increase, from 7% in 2020 to around 10% in 2070.
This trend is consistent with rising service sector dominance, increasing commercial activities,
and the growing demand for office spaces, retail centres, and hospitality facilities. Additionally,
policies promoting industrial corridors and digital economy expansion are expected to further
accelerate the demand for commercial real estate.
Data Centres, in particular, are emerging as major consumers of energy within commercial
buildings. India is witnessing significant growth in its data centre market, with power capacities
projected to rise sharply, making them substantial contributors to energy demand in the coming
decades. While these data centres represent substantial energy-intensive infrastructures, there
are notable opportunities for adopting energy-efficient and renewable-powered solutions.
Several data centres in India are already implementing advanced cooling solutions and AI-
driven energy management, lowering their energy use and environmental impact.
Assumptions on a range of macro-economic indicators have been used to inform the projections,
which are included in Annexure B.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
20202025203020352040204520502055206020652070
Billion Square Metres
Residential - Existing RuralResidential- Existing UrbanCommercial- Existing
Residential - New Rural Residential- New Urban Commercial- New
4
23
42
10
Figure 2.1: Building Floor space Projections 2020-2070
iv
Table 2.1: Building stock projections for 2050 and 2070
Sub-sector
2020 estimate
(billion m
2
)
2025 estimate
(billion m
2
)
2050 projections
(billion m
2
)
2070 projections
(billion m
2
)
Residential 16.5 18.4 30.2 38.1
Commercial 1.31.64.14.4
Total floor space 17.8 20.0 34.3 42.5
iv
NITI Aayog, 2025 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 13
Development Imperatives and Driver of Change:
While NITI Aayog’s projections offer one perspective, alternative estimates by some of the
research organisations suggest a more aggressive trajectory. Analysis by NIUA and RMI
indicates that about 1.25 billion sq.m of new floor space is being added annually. This could
rise to 1.91 billion sq.m per year by 2050, resulting in a 2.5-fold increase in total floor space
between 2020 and 2050
3
. The Alliance for an Energy Efficient Economy (AEEE), in its work
for the India Cooling Action Plan, estimates that total floor space will rise from 16.5 billion
sq.m in 2017 to 31.53 billion sq.m in 2037
4
. Similarly, the Global Alliance for Buildings
and Construction projects an increase from 15.8 billion sq.m in 2015 to about 57.6 billion
sq.m in 2050, over 3.5 times growth
5
. The Center for Study of Science, Technology and
Policy (CSTEP) also presents higher estimates, projecting over 80 billion m
2
by 2070 under
a business-as-usual scenario
6
.
In comparison to some of these alternative estimates, NITI Aayog’s projections assume a
relatively modest increase in residential floor space per capita in the coming decades. Given
India’s rising population density, land constraints, and rapid urbanisation, it is reasonable to
expect that per capita floor space increases may not match those of the developed and, less
populous, countries. Instead, the trend could be akin to land-constrained developed economies
such as Singapore, or urban centres like Mumbai.
Comparing India’s building stock growth pathways
As one of the world’s most densely populated countries (8,177 people/km
2
)
7
, Singapore has a per
capita living space of 25–30 m
2
per person
8,9
. Given a shortage of land, this has led to high-rise
development that optimise density and liveability. In contrast, less land-constrained developed
economies, such as the USA, have undergone horizontal growth. The average home size in the US
increased from 97m
2
in 1920 to about 214 m
2
in the early 2000s, or more than 60 m
2
per person
in many homes
10
. Lower population density and abundant land enabled suburban development
and spacious residential units, driving per capita floor area significantly above that of dense Asian
cities. Countries like China, which do not have significant land constraints, also experienced a
dramatic rise in per capita residential living space, from under 5 m
2
in the 1980s to over 40 m
2

on average by 2020, with urban households providing a space of around 36.5 m
2
per person
11,12
.
India faces unique constraints of rising density, limited land, and rapid urbanisation. Its future
growth in per capita residential area will likely rely on vertical housing and efficient urban
planning, echoing aspects of Singapore’s experience . With projected urban per capita floor area
reaching 24 m
2
by 2070, India may still remain below China’s (36 m
2
) and USA’s average levels
(60 m
2
), but closer to Singapore’s range.
While building stock projections may vary based on underlying assumptions, the projected
figures present a reasonably good picture of trends and challenges ahead. The new building
stock to be constructed in the coming decades will increase demand for energy- and resource-
intensive building materials. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 14
Development Imperatives and Driver of Change:
Table 2.2 presents the current and projected growth in national production of key construction
materials, cement, steel, bricks, aluminium, and glass. At present, buildings consume a dominant
share of several materials, accounting for about 75% of cement production in India
13
, and
approximately 40% of steel production
14
, both of which are highly energy-intensive industries.
Cement production releases significant amounts of CO
2 emissions during calcination, a
chemical reaction during clinker production. Calcination process alone accounts for 50-60%
of total cement emissions. Moreover, burnt clay bricks dominate masonry construction in both
urban and rural areas. Local manufacturing in inefficient kilns causes agricultural topsoil loss
and land degradation. Around 30 million tonnes of coal and approximately 10 million tonnes
of biomass are used annually for firing of burnt clay bricks making this one of the largest
energy consuming industries in the country
15
.
In absolute terms, national production of cement and steel is projected to grow sharply, increasing
by about four times by 2050, driven by combined demand from buildings, infrastructure, and
industrial sectors. Expert consultations further indicate that brick production is likely to increase
by about two times, reaching approximately 1.5-1.6 billion tonnes annually by 2050.
Table 2.2: Projected national production in million tonnes (Mt) of key materials
Material
2020
reported
production in Mt
2025
estimated
production in Mt
2050
projected in Mt
2070
projected in Mt
Steel
v
110 160 624 820
Cement
v
335450 1,600 1,990
Bricks 700-750
16
750-800
17’18’vi
1,500-1,600
17’18’vi
1,300-1,500
17’18’vi
Aluminium
v
562838
Glass 2-4
19’20
3-5
19’20
14-17
vii
22-28
vii
Source: Based on data from the Working Group Report on Industry Sector (Vol. 4) and analysis conducted under Buildings Working
Group, informed by multiple secondary data sources and expert consultations
Out of total demand as shown in Table 2.2, the Table 2.3 shows building sector’s demand
for steel, cement, aluminium, and glass. Annual additions to built floor area are currently
at historical highs of around 0.9-1.0 billion m
2
, but are expected to moderate post-2030,
consistent with the floor area projections shown in Figure 2.1.
v
Based on data received from the Industry Sector Working Group (Vol. 4)
vi
Analysis conducted under working group on buildings based on data from multiple sources and expert consultations
21’22’23’24’25

vii
Assumes a conservative compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5–6% during 2020–2050 and 1.5–2% during 2050–2070,
consistent with projected floor-area expansion and growth trends in key building materials (e.g., steel and cement).. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 15
Development Imperatives and Driver of Change:
Table 2.3: Estimated demand of key materials for the building sector
Material
2020 Estimated
demand
(million tonnes)
2025 Estimated
demand
(million tonnes)
2050 Estimated
demand
(million tonnes)
2070 Estimated
demand
(million tonnes)
Steel45-50 50-65 90-100 100-110
Cement230-260 300-350 500-550 450-500
Bricks550-600 600-650 550-600 500-600
Aluminium 0.5-1 0.8-1.5 3-44-5
Glass1.5-2 2-34-55-6
Source: Analysis conducted under working group on buildings sectors based on data from multiple sources and expert consultations
21’22’23’24’25
Rapid urbanisation, coupled with a transition towards mid-rise and high-rise construction
prioritising structural integrity, increases steel and cement use per unit floor area while reducing
brick intensity (kg/m
2
) in modern buildings. Evidence from global literature
11’12’26’27’28
indicates
similar trajectories, with material demand rising rapidly in early stages of urbanisation before
plateauing as saturation in built-up area is reached. Consistent with these patterns, India’s
building material intensity is projected to stabilise by the late 2040s, with only marginal year-
on-year increases thereafter. National production trends for key materials, as projected by
NITI Aayog, are closely linked to GDP growth across buildings, infrastructure, and industrial
segments, as well as policies promoting exports and import substitution. As a result, an
increasing share of national output, particularly for cement, steel, aluminium, and glass, is
absorbed by infrastructure projects and export markets over time.
These projections underscore the importance of strategic material efficiency measures in the
building sector, not only to mitigate environmental impacts but also to ensure supply security
in the context of competing national demands.
Policies and market mechanisms are crucial for India to meet its long-term economic and
development goals. These must improve manufacturing energy efficiency, scale up low-carbon
alternatives, optimize building-level material use, and enhance durability and circularity.
2.2 Better Affordability and Improved Standards of Living
Income growth and improved living standards will drive greater appliance ownership and
prolonged usage, particularly for cooling.
India has among the lowest access to cooling despite its tropical climate. Room air
conditioners (RACs) have low penetration rates of 13% in urban and 4% in rural areas,
averaging approximately 7% at national level in 2020
viii
. Figure 2.2 shows that air-conditioners
ownership is disproportionately low in India given the high cooling demand, even compared
to other developing economies such as China. This indicates significant latent demand, while
viii
NITI Aayog estimates, 2025 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 16
Development Imperatives and Driver of Change:
highlighting the need to make affordable cooling a national priority. Affordable cooling
requires both passive building design measures to improve thermal comfort and reduce cooling
demand, and efficient air-conditioning equipment.
Figure 2.2 shows latent cooling demand for India, expressed in person cooling degree days
ix
.
This indicates that cooling demand in India is well over two times that of China and nearly
10 times that of the United States, while current AC household ownership is less than 10%.
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Person cooling
degree days (billion)
Person cooling degree days
Japan United
States
Korea ChinaMexicoBrazilIndonesia India NigeriaEgypt
AC household ownership
AC household
ownership
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Figure 2.2: Cooling Demand (Cooling Degree Days) Versus Current AC Ownership in
Different Countries
29
The India Cooling Action Plan estimates that room air conditioner (RAC) ownership could
reach around 40% by 2037–38. This is further projected to reach 80% in urban areas and
around 50% in rural areas by 2047, and 80% by 2070.
30
Rising disposable income, particularly
among medium-income urban households, will drive substantial growth in air conditioner
penetration. This is expected to reach 80% in urban areas and 50% in rural areas by 2047.
India is projected to have over 20% of the global installed stock of RACs, at nearly 1.2 billion
units, by 2050
3
.
Other appliances have varying penetration rates in urban and rural areas, but the projected
trend is also upwards. NITI Aayog estimates that refrigerator ownership is projected to increase
from 63% in urban and 25% in rural households in 2020, to 90% and 80% respectively by
2047, and reach 100% by 2070. Ceiling fans are expected to reach 100% penetration by 2030,
compared to 96% in urban and 85% in rural households in 2020
x
.
The projected increase in appliance ownership presents substantial economic opportunities.
ix
Person cooling degree days is the country’s average annual cooling degree days (CDD) multiplied by its population. CDD is the
difference between the mean daily temperature (average of the daily high and daily low) and a reference or base temperature (18 °C
in this instance)
x
NITI Projections, 2020 values based on multiple surveys (NFHS-5, CEEW’s IRS) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 17
Development Imperatives and Driver of Change:
These include investment in scaling up domestic production and advancing research and
commercialisation of low-carbon, high-efficiency technologies, including both active and
passive cooling solutions. This approach will ensure equitable access to affordable cooling
while delivering significant economic benefits through job creation, enhanced productivity,
and reduced costs for new electricity infrastructure.
2.3 Climate Change and Heat Stress
India is highly susceptible to heat waves due to its location and geography, population density,
and increasing urbanisation rates,
31
. In recent years, this trend is increasing in both frequency
and intensity.
Severe heat waves in India are expected to increase 30 times by the end of the century, even
if the global mean temperature rise is limited to 2°C above pre-industrial levels
1
. According
to IPCC (2023) there is more than a 50% chance that the global temperature rise will reach or
surpass 1.5°C between 2021 and 2040. Recent observations indicate that 2024 was the warmest
year on record and likely exceeded 1.5 °C, signalling an increasing risk of a sustained breach
of this threshold
32,33
. This reinforces the urgency of accelerating mitigation while strengthening
adaptation measures to address escalating heat stress, particularly in highly climate-vulnerable
regions. The India Meteorological Department’s review of heat wave studies indicates heat
wave duration will increase by 12-18 days during the pre-monsoon season (April-June)
over 2020-2064.This will extend further to southern and coastal parts of India
34
. Alternative
projections of heat stress in South Asia region indicate potential widespread increases in wet
bulb globe temperature (WBGT) of 6.50°C.These increases could exceed theoretical human
tolerance limits by the mid-21st century (refer to Figure 2.3 below).
Heat stress affects human health by increasing the heat-related illnesses incidences and
exacerbating chronic conditions. In extreme cases it can cause permanent disability or death
35
.
Beyond health and mortality impacts, heat stress reduces productivity and results in economic
losses through reduced labour efficiency and increased healthcare costs. According to 2019
International Labour Organisation data for India, heat stress caused a 4.3% loss of working
hours in 1995 with projections showing an increase to 5.8% by 2030. This could result in
productivity losses equivalent to approximately 34 million full-time jobs
36
. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 18
Development Imperatives and Driver of Change:


(a) WBGT SSP2-4.5 2021-2040
35° N
30° N
25° N
20° N
15° N
10° N
35° N
30° N
25° N
20° N
15° N
10° N
60° E70° E
-1 -0.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
80° E90° E100° E60° E70° E80° E90° E100° E60° E70° E80° E90° E
Change, [°C]
100° E
(b) WBGT SSP2-4.5 2041-2060 (b) WBGT SSP2-4.5 2081-2100
(d) WBGT SSP5-8.5 2021-2040 (e) WBGT SSP5-8.5 2041-2060 (f) WBGT SSP5-8.5 2081-2100
Figure 2.3: Projected changes in wet bulb global temperatures for south asia under
two alternative socio-economic pathways and over 2040, 2060, 2100
31*
*Note: Country boundaries corrected
Mitigating heat stress and providing affordable cooling is imperative to meeting India’s long-
term economic and development goals. This requires adoption of climate-responsive design,
passive cooling measures, and efficient active technologies in homes and workplaces. Building
energy codes will need to evolve to enable this. This aligns with the Indian government’s vision
and commitment to reduce heat wave-related deaths to zero by strengthening disaster risk
governance and investing in prevention, preparedness and resilience
37
. Designing and scaling
heat-resilient shelters will also require focus in the coming years. These shelters represent a
potentially new class of buildings to provide relief to commuters and outdoor workers. 3
CURRENT
BUILDING SECTOR
LANDSCAPE 20Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings
3
Current Building
Sector Landscape
3.1 Energy Use and Emissions
The building sector’s GHG emissions include emissions from energy use during operation,
and emissions related to the manufacturing, maintenance, repair, replacement and end of
life disposal of building materials or products used for construction (referred to as lifecycle
embodied emissions or embodied carbon).
Table 3.1 shows estimates of building sector emissions using multiple data sources, including
NITI Aayog’s analysis on operational energy use, the 4th Biennial Update Report to UNFCCC
38

(BUR 2024), and supplementary analysis. The national GHG inventory does not include
building sector data separately, making it challenging to build a comprehensive picture.
Assumptions and data used for the estimates are provided in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1: Estimated building sector GHG emissions (2025)
CategorySub-category
GHG emissions
(million tCO2e)
Remarks
(a) Operational emissions from existing building stock and cooking
Electricity-related
emissions
(million tCO
2e
)
Residential297 Operational emissions
are calculated based on
the energy projections
obtained from the NITI
Aayog’s building sector
energy models, and
emission factors from
CEA for electricity use
and IPCC 6 for cooking
fuels.
Commercial 102
Cooking
(million tCO
2e
)
83
Annual operational emissions*482 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 21
Current Building Sector Landscape
CategorySub-category
GHG emissions
(million tCO2e)
Remarks
Annual
production
(million tonnes)
% attributable
to building
sector
GHG emissions
(million tCO2e)
Remarks
(b) Embodied emissions for key building materials (Million tCO2e)
Cement 451 73 214 Embodied emissions
have been estimated
using the data sources
cited in Tables 2.2 and
2.3. Emission factors
for 2025 are primarily
sourced from the Working
Group on Industry Sector
constituted by NITI
Aayog, along with other
sources listed in the same
tables
Steel162 43 143
Bricks800 75 72
Aluminium6 15 21
Glass4 703
Annual embodied emissions (Million tCO2e) 453
Total annual building-sector GHG emissions
(Million tCO
2e
)
935
* Excludes fossil fuel-based captive generation on-site and Scope-3 related GHG emissions from material production. Estimates for
GHG emissions from refrigerants used in heating and cooling are also not included. These are estimated to be circa 15 MtCO2e
(excluding cold chain and mobile air conditioning) based on research published by Alex Hillbrand et al, 2022 Environ. Res. Lett.
17 074019.
The building sector, encompassing both embodied and operational emissions, accounts for an
estimated 30% of national GHG emissions including cooking and 25% excluding cooking.
These estimates include emissions associated with the manufacturing of cement, steel,
aluminium, bricks, and glass. These key materials make up 70-85% of a conventional building’s
lifecycle embodied emissions
39
. Including emissions from these materials, operational and
embodied emissions for the building sector account for 52% and 48%, respectively, of the
total emissions when cooking energy emissions are included. These shares are 47% and 53%,
respectively, when cooking energy emissions are excluded (refer to Figure 3.1 below). While
case studies assessing the embodied emissions of individual buildings have been published,
there is no comprehensive data on the embodied emissions of new typologies of buildings
being constructed across the country. This is a critical data gap and limits the potential for
targeted policies to address building sector embodied emissions. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 22
Current Building Sector Landscape
*
*
**
Figure 3.1: Breakdown of Current GHG Emissions from the Building Sector in 2025,
With and Without Cooking-Related Emissions
xi
3.2 Technologies Deployed and Penetration of Energy-Efficient
Alternatives
3.2.1 Appliances
Energy use by appliances is the highest contributor to building sector emissions. The appliances
that currently contribute the most to operational energy use in buildings are listed in Table 3.2.
Table 3.2: Energy Consumption for Key Appliances Used in Residential Buildings
Key Appliances
Energy consumption (TWh)
Year 2020Year 2025
Fan and Cooler94106
Room AC2971
Refrigerator5557
Lighting Fixtures4042
Heating (Space heaters, geyser,
immersion rods)
2743
Others (TV, Washing Machine,
Pumps, etc.)
6066
Total energy consumption (TWh) 305385
The market share of efficient technologies has been gradually increasing as cost differences
narrow, and Bureau of Energy Efficiency’s (BEE’s) Standards and Labelling (S&L) programme
drives market transformation through minimum performance standards and better consumer
awareness (refer to Figure 3.2 below). The apparent shifts in star-wise market shares shown
in Figure 3.2 should be interpreted in the context of periodic Minimum Energy Performance
xi
Analysis conducted under NITI Aayog Working Group on buildings sector Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 23
Current Building Sector Landscape
Standards (MEPS) revisions, which raise the efficiency baseline and reclassify products across
star categories. For instance, following the 2019 MEPS revision for ceiling fans, models that
were rated 5-star in FY2019 were reclassified as 1-star from FY2020 onwards. As a result, the
observed increase in the market share of 1-star fans and the corresponding decline in 5-star fans
after 2019 reflect an improvement in underlying efficiency rather than a market regression. A
similar pattern is evident for variable-speed Room Air Conditioners (RACs), where the share
of 5-star ACs has continued to rise from FY2020 onwards despite MEPS upgrades, indicating
sustained adoption of more efficient technologies even as efficiency thresholds become more
stringent. The section 3.3 outlines the S&L program’s success in increasing the adoption of
energy-efficient alternatives in recent years.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
FY 2018FY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022
ISEER (W/W)
Percentage share
Variable Speed Room Air Conditioner
3 Star 5 Star Others ISEER 1* AC ISEER 5* AC
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY 2018FY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022
Service value (m3/min/W)  
Percentage share
Ceiling fans 
1 Star 5 Star Others
Service value-1* ratedService value-5***** rated
Figure 3.2: Market Share of Ceiling Fans and Variable Speed ACs by Star Rating
Source: CLASP
There is still scope to further improve energy efficiency for certain categories of appliances in
line with international practices and norms. Figure 3.3 shows how India’s Minimum Energy
Performance Standards (MEPS)

for specific appliance categories, compare with global energy
efficiency norms and Best Available Technologies (BAT). A larger gap (numbers shown in
blue) implies a greater scope for improving appliance energy efficiency performance standards.
The world’s best MEPS shown in the Figure 3.3 are already being implemented in a number
of countries or are in the process of being enforced
40
. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 24
Current Building Sector Landscape
Combination of Policy, Demand and 
Supply side interventions are impact-
ing the market:
•Pricing and communication: A 25% 
reduction in retail prices of 5 Star 
rated fans. Greater focus on BLDC 
technology, cost efciency, energy 
savings, and BEE star labels.
•Over two years, 5-star fan produc-
tion increased by 63%, with manu-
facturers rising from 36 in 2023 to 
105 in 2024. Registered 5-star fan 
models also tripled.
MEPS Leadership
India adopted world’s most 
stringent energy efciency 
norms for ceiling fans 
starting in January 2023
Supply side support
Ongoing eforts to assist 
SMEs in adopting BEE star 
ratings and BIS certification, 
along with technology 
upgradation support
Demand Activation
EESL launched National Energy 
Efciency Fans Program 
(NEEFP) to aggregate demand 
and procure 2 million 5 Star 
ceiling fans
How India’s Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) for ceiling fans foster 
market transformation

Figure 3.3: Comparison of India’s Appliance Minimum Energy Performance
Standard (MEPS) with Global Best Available Technology (BAT)
Figure 3.3 shows that India’s current MEPS for ceiling fans is in line with international
norms. India’s lighting MEPS at 90 lm/watt for LED lamps is also on par with the global best
standards in force. As the USA and South Africa have committed to ratcheting up MEPS in
the near future, there is potential to raise lighting Minimum Energy Performance Standards
(MEPS) by 33% from present values. MEPS for air conditioners present the largest potential,
for 45% improvement to align with global best standards. This would still be significantly
lower than the best available technology currently.
Other than consumer appliances, electric motors and motor based systems are pervasive in
residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. Low-efficiency motors represent an estimated Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 25
Current Building Sector Landscape
two-thirds of the motors stock in India and the world. India’s IE2 MEPS for motors can be
made more stringent, aiming for IE4 standards and progressively moving towards IE5 for
industrial electric motors. There is also scope to expand current policies to cover larger motor
systems (pumps, compressed air systems, etc.).
3.2.2 Building Materials and Construction Systems
New buildings in urban and peri-urban areas largely comprise load-bearing red brick walls with
RCC slab (in low-rise buildings), or RCC frame construction with brick or other infill walling
material (in medium to high rise buildings). In areas prone to earthquakes or other disasters,
framed RCC construction has been adopted for low-rise construction as well. Alternate walling
materials include AAC (Autoclave Aerated Concrete) blocks, cement blocks, fly ash bricks,
and hollow clay bricks. These make up a small proportion of the total production volume
relative to red bricks. In recent years, there is increasing preference for monolithic RCC
construction
xii
, particularly in Tier 1 cities as they help speed up construction and require less
labour. However, the embodied carbon impact of monolithic construction can be several times
higher than vernacular and contemporary construction technologies.
Building material thermal characteristics affect operational GHG emissions. Their ‘green’
credentials—carbon intensity, structural strength, durability, recycled content, and circularity
potential—affect lifecycle embodied emission. Figure 3.4 below shows the thermal
characteristics and embodied carbon intensity of red brick and other alternatives, along with
comparative costs and estimates of current production volumes. Low-carbon cements, such
as Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC) and Limestone Calcined Clay Cement (LC3), also have
significantly lower emissions intensity than Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) (see box below).
This is not an exhaustive list. Alternative materials may not provide a like-for-like replacement
for conventional materials when all thermo-physical properties are considered. However,
depending on the specific circumstances and local supply chains, alternative materials may
offer a significant reductions in embodied carbon.
Almost 2000 tonnes of LC3 has been produced in India and worldwide under pilot scale
41
.
Sustainability impact assessment has demonstrated a reduction of nearly 40% of CO
2
emissions,
and about 20% lower energy for production of LC3 as compared to OPC
42,43
.
xii
Construction method where building structural elements such as walls, roof and floor slab are cast-in-situ using reinforced concrete
forming a single structure without distinct joints. Prefabricated (typically aluminium) formwork is used for the purpose. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 26
Current Building Sector Landscape
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Red bricksHollow clay
brick
AAC Fly Ash Bricks
U-Value (W/m2K)
Embodied Carbon (kgCO
2 
/m
3
)
Conventional vs Alternate Walling Materials
Embodied Carbon (kgCO
2e 
/m
3
)U-Value (W/m2K)
750
20
4.5
0.2
0 200 400 600 800
Red bricks
Fly Ash Bricks
AAC
Hollow clay brick
Annual Production in 2020-21 (Million Tonnes)
Indicative Comparative Cost*
(/m
2
 wall)
Figure 3.4: Thermal Performance, Embodied Carbon and Market Maturity of
Conventional Materials and Low-Carbon Alternatives
44,45,46
*Note: Comparative costs may vary across the country depending on the local supply chain constraints
Different types of low-carbon cements and reduction potential
relative to Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC)
The figure below shows the differences in composition of different types of cements and their
emissions intensity per kg. Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC) comprises 95% clinker. By partially
replacing clinker with Supplementary Cementitious Materials (SCMs) such as fly ash, blast furnace
slag, limestone powder, etc., substantial reductions in CO₂ emissions can be achieved. Depending on
the type of application (structural or non-structural), these can help reduce the emissions intensity
of OPC by up to half. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 27
Current Building Sector Landscape
95
65
50
40
5
5
5
5
55
30
15
30
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.32
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ordinary Portland
cement (OPC)
Pozzolana
Portland cement
(PPC)
Limestone
Calcinated Clay
Cement (LC3)
Portland slag
cement
Composition (%)
CO
2
 Emissions (kg/CO
2 
/kg) 
Types of Cements* – Composition and Emissions
ClinkerGypsum
Granulated blast furnace slag Calcinated clay
LimestonePozzolana
CO
2
 Emissions (kgCO
2
/kg)
* Sources: i. for the composition of OPC, PPC, LC3: https://lc3.ch/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/2016.02.06EconomyLC3.pdf;
ii. for CO
2 emissions of OPC, PPC, LC3: https://civil.iitm.ac.in/admin/civilcont/sanoop%20prakasan.pdf;
iii. for composition and emissions from PSC: https://api.environdec.com/api/v1/EPDLibrary/Files/d20934da-2b0c-40e3-b029-
4da5f1ad4d6e/Data
Table 3.3 provides comparative data on the embodied carbon of case study buildings constructed
in India, along with some international examples. This suggests that the lifecycle embodied
carbon of buildings in India may be much higher than in other geographies, where supply
chains are relatively decarbonised and design considerations to reduce material use are more
common place.
However, comparing published data across case study buildings is challenging. Variations
include lifecycle analysis boundaries (i.e., what is included/ excluded from the calculations),
different emission factor databases, and inconsistent methodologies. These methodological
differences encompass standard floor area definitions, on-site renewables accounting, and
material end-of-life circularity benefits. Such inconsistencies make cross-project and regional
comparisons difficult, highlighting the need for a national standardised approach supported
by product-level environmental performance disclosures. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 28
Current Building Sector Landscape
Table 3.3: Embodied Carbon Of Buildings: Indian and International Case Studies
47, 48
Residence AResidence BResidence C
NZEB
*

at CEPT
University
Infosys
Canal
Reach
Harris
Academy,
Sutton
81-103
Kings Road
Type
High-rise
residential
complex
Low-rise
residential
complex
Residential
– 4-storey
Builder floors
OfficeOfficeOfficeEducation
Office/
Retail
LocationBengaluruBengaluruBengaluru
Ahmedabad,
India
Kolkata, IndiaUKUK
UK
Area (m
2
)-
-
51526,55754,92110,625
17,177
Construction
Type
Monolithic
concrete
RCC frame
with bricks,
CSEB &
concrete blocks
RCC frame
with solid
concrete
blocks
Brick
masonry
Concrete masonry
Assessment
boundary
Structure,
foundation, all
walls, plaster,
shading
Structure,
foundation, all
walls, plaster,
shading
Structure,
foundation, all
walls, plaster,
shading
Structure,
envelope,
finishes,
HVAC, PV,
electrical
Structure, envelope,
finishes, HVAC, PV,
site, interior layout,
foundation
--
-
A1-A5
#
(kgCO
2
/m
2
)
3384193743292952705563
623
C1-C4
(kgCO
2
/m
2
)
---35032450305
95
Total (kgCO
2
/m
2
)33841937436431276755868
718
* Net Zero Energy Building (NZEB)
# A1- A5, C1-C4 Explained in next page Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 29
Current Building Sector Landscape
Building lifecycle assessment (LCA) boundary and terminology
Lifecycle embodied carbon includes carbon emissions related to materials and construction
processes across the entire lifecycle of a building. This includes: material extraction (A1),
transportation to the manufacturer (A2), manufacturing (A3), transportation to the site (A4),
construction (A5), use phase (B1), maintenance (B2), repair (B3), replacement (B4), refurbishment
(B5), deconstruction (C1), transportation to end-of-life facilities (C2), processing (C3), and
disposal (C4). The nomenclature in brackets above is used to refer to different building lifecycle
stages as per the widely-accepted ISO standards 14040/14044 and European standard EN 15978,
and as illustrated in Figure 3.5 below.
(A1-A3)
Product Stage
Cradle to gate
Raw material
extraction & supply
Transport to
manufacturing plant
Manufacturing &
fabrication
(A1)(A2)(A3)
(C1-C4)
End of Life Stage
Deconstruction
Demolition
Transport to
disposal facilityWaste processing for
reuse, recovery of recycling
(C1)(C2)(C3)
Disposal
(C4)
Reuse
Recovery
Recycling
potential
(D)
Benefit and loads beyond
the system boundry
(B1-B7)
Use Stage
Use
Maintenance
Repair
Replacement
Refurbishment
[B6] O perational energy use
[B7] Operational water use
(B1)(B2)(B3)(B4)(B5)
(A4-A5)
Construction Process
stage
Transport to
project site
Construction &
installation process
(A4) (A5)
Cradle to practical completion (handover)
Cradle to grave
Cradle to grave including benefits and loads beyond the system boundry
WHOLE LIFE CARBON ASSESSMENT INFORMATION
PROJECT LIFE CYCLE INFORMATION
SUPPLEMENTARY
INFORMATION BEYOND
THE PROJECT
LIFE CYCLE
Figure 3.5: Building lifecycle assessment stages and nomenclature as per ISO
standards
Source: Based on BS EN 15978, RICS 2017
3.3 Policy Baseline: Codes, Labels and Disclosure Gaps
Key building sector policies: India’s policy and regulatory regime has evolved over the
last two decades to increase its focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy generation and
environmental protection. The key building-sector policies are summarised in Table 3.4. Table
3.5 shows the indicative average annual emissions avoided as a result of some of the policies. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 30
Current Building Sector Landscape
Table 3.4: Current Building-sector Policy Framework Across Asset Lifecycle
Asset lifecycle
Type of policy
instrument
Name
Mandatory/
voluntary*
Jurisdiction
Applicability (building type
/ size, etc.)
Attributes
OERETCECCL
Supply chain
(building
materials,
components
and HVAC
equipment)
Energy
labelling
Standards and
labelling (S&L)
program for
appliances and
equipment
Part
mandatory
National
Invoked for 28 categories of equipment,
including air-conditioners, refrigerators,
fans, pumps, washing machines, gas
stoves, LED lamps, microwave ovens,
chillers, packaged boilers, and air
compressors, among others.
Cap and
trade
scheme
Perform, Achieve
and Trade (PAT)
Mandatory
National
Caps energy intensity for select
industrial sectors over a 3-year cycle.
Covers cement, iron & steel, and
aluminium.
Financing
instrument
Unnat Jyoti by
Affordable LED for
All (UJALA)
Voluntary for
beneficiaries
National
LEDs in residential buildings.
Beneficiaries benefit from the cost
efficiencies of bulk procurement and
the ability to pay upfront costs in
instalments through ‘On Bill Financing’.
New buildings
(design and
construction)
Building
code
Energy Conservation
Building Code
(ECBC 2007 &
2017)
Part
mandatory
ECBC 2017
adopted in 18
states & UTs,
ECBC 2007
in 5, yet to be
adopted in 13.
Varies by state. Typically, commercial
buildings >100kW connected load or
>120kVa contract demand. Adopted
with amendments in some states
with thresholds for plot, built-up or
conditioned area.
Building
code
Eco-Niwas Samhita
(ENS 2018 (Part 1)
and 2021 (Part 2))
Voluntary
Not adopted by
states to date
Residential buildings on plot area
>500m
2
. Focus on the thermal
performance of the building envelope.
Building
code
Energy Conservation
& Sustainability
Building Code
(ECSBC 2024 &
ECSBC-R 2024)
Voluntary
Not adopted by
states to date
Commercial and residential buildings
>100kW connected load or >120kVa
contract demand Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 31
Current Building Sector Landscape
Asset lifecycle
Type of policy
instrument
Name
Mandatory/
voluntary*
Jurisdiction
Applicability (building type
/ size, etc.)
Attributes
OERETCECCL
Financial
incentive
Financial incentives
for green building
ratings
VoluntarySelect states
Applies to buildings with GRIHA 3-star
and above, LEED and IGBC ratings.
Incentives vary by state (between 3-15%
increase in FAR, part reimbursement of
certification fee, or one-time rebate on
stamp duty or property taxes).
Existing
buildings (in-
use phase)
Cap and trade
scheme
Perform, Achieve
and Trade (PAT)
Mandatory National
Covers hotels and airports as designated
entities. Sets a cap for energy intensity
over a 3-year cycle.
Energy
labelling
BEE star rating
scheme
Voluntary National
Covers four typologies of commercial
buildings with connected load >100kW:
office buildings, BPO, hospitals, and
shopping malls
Energy
labelling
BEE Shunya
Labeling for Net
Zero Energy
Buildings (NZEB)
and Net Positive
Energy Buildings
Voluntary National
Open to all building types having an
EPI of less than 10 kWh/m
2
/year based
on actual energy consumption data.
Public sec -
tor market
transforma-
tion initia-
tive
Building Energy
Efficiency
Programme (BEEP)
VoluntaryNational
Covers retrofitting of existing public,
institutional, and industrial buildings
with energy-efficient appliances and
systems. Focus on building energy use
for cooling and lighting.
End of life
(demolition)
Environ -
mental
legislation
Construction &
Demolition (C&D)
Waste Management
Rules (2016)
Voluntary
(recycling
req.)
National
Promote recycling and reuse of C&D waste
from all building sites.
*Note this reflects the current status quo OC = Operational carbon RE = Renewable Energy TC = Thermal comfort EC = Embodied carbon CL = Circularity Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 32
Current Building Sector Landscape
The Bureau of Energy Efficiency’s (BEE) standards and labelling program defines Minimum
Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) and labels for appliances and equipment. Launched
in 2006 as a voluntary initiative, it is now mandatory for 16 categories of equipment and
appliances
49
. Thirty-nine types of appliances were registered under the program as of March
2025.
Success of India’s Standards and Labelling (S&L) program
India has witnessed a remarkable transformation in appliance energy performance driven by
BEE’s S&L program.
For instance, in the room air conditioner (RAC) market, the initiative has significantly increased
the adoption of energy-efficient inverter ACs, replacing the less efficient fixed speed ACs. In
2015, the market share of inverter ACs was less than 1% in a total RAC market of 4.7 million
units. In 2018, BEE took a technology-neutral approach by unifying the rating for fixed speed and
inverter ACs. This meant fixed speed ACs could only achieve up to a 3-star rating, while more
efficient inverter technology could go as high as 5 stars. By 2024 the market share of inverter
ACs in a total RAC market of 11 million units had increased dramatically from 1% to 86%.
Overall the S&L program has led to reduction of 58.2 MtCO
2e
in 2022-23 due to interventions
carried out over the previous 5 years across all categories of appliances. Direct cool refrigerator,
colour television, and frost-free refrigerator combined contributed to nearly 60% of the total
energy savings given their significant market demand and high household penetration rates
currently compared to ACs.
The Energy Conservation Building Code, applicable to newly built commercial buildings with
a connected load greater than 100kW (ECBC 2007 & 2017), and Eco-Niwas Samhita (ENS
2018) for new residential buildings, were also launched as ‘voluntary’ initiatives at the national
level. Since then, ECBC has been notified in 23 states and Union Territories. Both ECBC
and ENS have focused mainly on operational energy performance. The latest amendment to
the ECBC, India’s Energy Conservation and Sustainability Building Code (ECSBC 2024) has
enhanced performance standards for operational energy and additionally includes voluntary
disclosures for embodied carbon of building materials. In 2024, ENS 2018 was superseded
by ENS 2024 and now applies to large residential buildings in line with the threshold criteria
for ECSBC. Both ECSBC 2024 and ENS 2024 are yet to be adopted by states.
There are limited policies addressing operational energy and/or carbon performance in existing
buildings. BEE’s Star Rating scheme
50
(2009) for commercial buildings and the relatively
recent Shunya Labeling
51
for Net Zero Energy Buildings (NZEB) and Net Positive Energy
Buildings (NPEB) are voluntary labelling schemes. While these schemes provide valuable
frameworks for rating operational energy performance, they do not comprehensively address
embodied carbon, lifecycle impacts, or mandatory performance data disclosures. This limits
their ability to holistically reduce emissions in the building sector. Adoption has also been
low; only about 500 buildings have been rated under the schemes. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 33
Current Building Sector Landscape
Other than voluntary disclosures included in the recently launched ECSBC, there are no
policies that specifically regulate embodied carbon in buildings. There is also currently no
prescribed national methodology or mandated requirement for GHG disclosures of building
materials and products. The Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT), which was introduced as a
cap and trade scheme in 2012, does set specific energy consumption targets for designated
industrial sectors over a three-year cycle. Designated industries relevant to the building sector
include cement, iron and steel, and aluminium manufacturing. Hotels and airports were also
brought into the remit in 2017 and 2020, respectively. Other key building materials, such as
bricks and glass, are not covered. The PAT scheme notably excludes non-fuel-related GHG
emissions, which constitute a significant proportion of emissions from some construction
materials. For instance, emissions released during calcination, a chemical reaction during
clinker production, represent 50-60% of total emissions associated with cement production.
Recognising the limitations of PAT, India is now preparing to transition to the Carbon Credit
Trading Scheme (CCTS), which aims to cover a broader range of emissions and sectors,
including energy and process-related emissions.
The above discussed policies for the building sector have achived progressively increasing GHG
emissions savings, with the scale of impact varying across measures. The impact assessment
report 2022-23 by Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) shows that schemes like Standards
and Labelling (S&L) and Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All (UJALA) have played
substantial role in reducing GHG emissions in the building sector (59.7 Mt CO
2
e avioded).
However, the emissions reduction through various other policy instruments targeting building
designs (such as ECBC, BEE star rating, Green Building Rating Program, (GRIHA), Eco-
Niwas Samhita (ENS), Building Energy Efficiency Programme (BEEP)) have been modest
due to their limited adoption, as shown in Table 3.5.
Table 3.5: Annual Avoided Emissions for Key Building Sector Policies
52
Policy instrument
Avoided energy consumption
(MTOE)
Average annual avoided GHG
emissions (Mt CO
2
e)
Standards and Labelling (S&L)
program for appliances
7.0458
Unnat Jyoti by Affordable
LEDs for All (UJALA)
0.2071.7
Others (ECBC, BEE star rating,
Green Building Rating Program,
(GRIHA), Eco-Niwas Samhita
(ENS) and Building Energy
Efficiency Programme (BEEP))
0.3502.9
Governance structure and policy implementation: Under India’s federal governance
structure, the building sector largely falls under the legislative domain of the state; some
aspects are under the concurrent domain of both the central government and the state. This Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 34
Current Building Sector Landscape
means building codes need to be formally notified by states before they can be implemented.
Some enforcement and regulatory functions (e.g. local building by-laws) are further delegated
to Urban Local Bodies (ULBs). States also have the flexibility to modify the codes and put
in place the enforcement regime and processes. At the national level, several ministries and
government bodies regulate different aspects affecting the building sector. The fragmented
governance and institutional structures, and limited devolution of funds to the local level,
affect the implementation of otherwise well-designed policies like the ECBC and ENS. Policy
implementation challenges are further discussed in Chapter 5.
Enabling legislative and strategic framework: The core building-sector policies are enabled
by legislations like the Electricity Act 2003 and the Energy Conservation Act 2001. Regulations,
schemes and programs related to energy efficiency (e.g. State Energy Efficiency Action Plans
developed by several states since 2023), renewable energy generation (e.g. Pradhan Mantri
Surya Ghar Yojana, 2024) and environmental protection (Environmental Protection Act 1986)
further affect the sector.
Policies and interventions in the building sector are also guided by high-level strategic vision
documents and action plans such as:
i. National Action Plan for Climate Change (2008), which outlines the national strategy
for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Under this, are eight ‘National
Missions’ including the National Solar Mission, National Mission for Enhanced
Energy Efficiency, and National Mission on Sustainable Habitat.
ii. India Cooling Action Plan (2019), an action plan for reducing cooling demand
through better thermal performance of the building envelope and efficient equipment,
with a view to ensuring thermal comfort for all.
iii. National Disaster Management Plan (2019), which provides a framework to
government agencies on all aspects of disaster management, and covers thematic areas
for disaster risk reduction including understanding risk, inter-agency coordination,
structural measures, non-structural measures, capacity development, and climate
change risk management.
iv. Long-term Low-emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS 2022), India’s long-term
strategy to transition to a low-carbon economy, which was created as per the Paris
Agreement. It also covers the building sector. 1 4
SECTORAL
ENERGY DEMAND
MODELLING AND
RESULTS 36Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings
4
Sectoral Energy
Demand Modelling
and Results
This chapter presents the methodology and the results of a comprehensive, rigorous modelling
exercise focused on two components:
i. Built-up floor space projections for residential and commercial buildings, based
on factors like population, household size, income groups, urbanisation, and service
sector employment. Commercial energy projections are linked to floor space and its
energy intensity. Estimates of floor space also provide insights into future material
and infrastructure requirements of urban India.
ii. Energy demand modelling focuses exclusively on operational energy use, i.e.,
energy consumed during the use phase of buildings in lighting, cooling, appliances,
and cooking. The modeling excludes embodied emissions and end-of-life energy
impact estimations in this exercise, while the emissions from associated material
demand has been captured by Inter-Ministerial Working Group on Industry sector
pathways to Net Zero. Demand from residential, commercial, and cooking uses are
estimated using sector-specific methodologies as described below:
a. The residential segment is modelled using a bottom-up appliance stock and
usage framework;
b. The commercial segment is driven by floor area growth, Energy Performance
Index (EPI), and green code adoption. Crucially the model includes high-load
categories such as cold chain infrastructure and data centres, given their growing
prominence in energy demand.
c. Cooking energy demand is modeled using per-capita energy consumption
baselines for urban and rural houeseholds, adjusted for fuel mix transitions (e.g.,
LPG, PNG, biogas, electricity) and efficiency gains from advanced cooking
technologies (e.g., induction stoves). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 37
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
The modelling methodologies capture relationships between economic growth, urbanisation,
climate variability, technological shifts, and evolving household behaviour. This modelling
approach draws on a review of methods used by leading national institutions and expert
organisations to ensure analytical robustness and sectoral alignment (Table 4.1).
Table 4.1: Overview of Building Energy Demand Modelling Approaches in India
Modelling
Approach
Purpose / Focus Methodology Overview
Institutions Using
This Approach
System Dynamics
(e.g., SAFARI)
Captures long-term
feedbacks between socio-
economic drivers and
energy use
Simulates policy, technology,
and behavioural interactions
over time to assess demand
and emissions trajectories
CSTEP
Appliance Stock
and Usage
(Bottom-Up)
Models residential energy
demand based on ownership
and usage patterns
Tracks penetration of
appliances by income group,
usage hours, and efficiency
improvements
AEEE, TERI,
adopted in
multiple
household energy
studies
Floor Space
and Energy
Performance
Index (EPI)
Projects commercial sector
demand based on floor area
and energy intensity
Applies building-type
specific EPIs and efficiency
improvements; includes
emerging loads (data centres,
cold chains)
NIUA, RMI,
AEEE and
others working
on commercial
sector studies
Energy System
Optimization
(TIMES/ GCAM)
Identifies least-cost energy
pathways across sectors
including buildings
Techno-economic optimization
of energy technologies to
meet service demand under
constraints
NITI Aayog,
CEEW, PNNL
Scenario
Framework (India
Energy Security
Scenarios–IESS)
Provides policy-aligned
demand trajectories
Uses macro drivers (GDP,
population) and sectoral
modules to project demand
under policy scenarios
NITI Aayog
The final estimation of operational energy demand in residential, commercial, and cooking
segments was undertaken using the India Energy Security Scenarios (IESS) and the TIMES
models. These tools align with India’s national energy planning frameworks and integrate
with cross-sectoral Net Zero pathways. The scenario design and parameterization used inputs
from diverse modelling approaches and feedback from consultations with expert institutions
specialized in system dynamics, appliance-based modelling, and commercial energy analysis.
This approach ensures methodological robustness and policy relevance.
4.1 Key Macroeconomic Assumptions
Floor space expansion and energy demand growth projections are shaped by macroeconomic,
demographic, and urbanisation trends, that influence consumption patterns across residential, Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 38
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
commercial, and cooking sectors. Key assumptions defining floor space and energy demand
evolution from 2020 to 2070 are shown below (Table 4.2).
Table 4.2: Key macroeconomic assumptions for deriving building stock and
energy demand projections
Category 2020202520502070 Assumption & Key Trend
Population
(Million)
1347141116081621
Peaks at 1,631 million (2062) and then declines
slightly based on MoHFW projections till
2036 and extended using UN DESA World
Population Prospects (2022).
Urbanisation
(%)
35% 37% 53% 65%
Doubling of urban population aligned with
Viksit Bharat vision and the urbanisation
experience in upper-middle income countries
(e.g., China and Brazil).
Urban
Household Size
4.2 4.1 3.413.41
Reduction based on past Census/NSSO data
that mirrors trends in rapidly urbanising Asian
and Latin American economies.
Rural
Household Size
4.5 4.4 3.813.81
Gradual decline consistent with historical rural
demographics and aligns with the experience
in Indonesia, Vietnam, and China.
4.2 Estimation of Building Stock
4.2.1 Residential Building Stock
Residential floor space projections (refer to Figure 2.1) are critical for understanding India’s
future built stock and its implications on construction material demand, urban infrastructure
planning, and lifecycle emissions. While these projections do not directly inform operational
energy demand estimates in this study, they provide the basis for estimating upstream impacts
including cement, steel, and brick consumption, for developing low-carbon construction policy
strategies.
The estimation uses a structured framework combining demographic growth, urban transition,
income-based housing segmentation, and typology-based dwelling size considering the
following steps.
1. Population and Urbanisation: India’s total household count is projected based on
historical data from Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)
and National Sample Survey Office (NSSO). From a base of 215 million energy-
using households in 2012, the number is estimated to grow to over 444 million by
2047, with the urban share increasing from 37% in 2023 to 51% in 2047 and further
to 65% by 2070. The average household size is also assumed to decrease from 4.2
and 4.5 in urban and rural areas to 3.4 and 3.8, respectively. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 39
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
2. Economic Segmentation of Households: Households are categorized into income
groups using NSSO consumption expenditure data. Urban segments include EWS,
LIG, MIG (≤2 bedrooms), and HIG (≥3 bedrooms). Rural households are classified
into EWS, LIG, and MIG+ categories. The share of households in higher income
brackets increases over time, reflecting economic development, and aligns with
Viksit Bharat aspirations (Table 4.3).
Table 4.3: Economic Segmentation of Households for the Urban and Rural Sectors
UrbanRural
2020 20702020 2070
EWS9% 0% EWS 60% 0%
LIG70% 52% LIG 36% 80%
MIG<=2BR 16% 34% MIG+ 4% 20%
MIG>=3BR 5% 14%
3. Average Built-up Area: Average built-up area per household is assumed based on
housing surveys and literature benchmarks, and held constant within each economic
group across years (Table 4.4).
Table 4.4: Built up Area per Household Based on Income Group
Urban Built up area (in square meters)Rural Built up area (in square meters)
EWS
16.1EWS30.4
LIG48.7LIG75.5
MIG<=2BR97.5MIG+115.6
MIG>=3BR176.5
The estimation accounts for building stock turnover using a demolition rate derived from RMI’s
“Decarbonizing from the Ground Up” study. This serves as a proxy for building retirement
given the lack of granular data on building service life in India. While necessary given data
constraints, this approach has limitations. A more robust method would combine satellite-
based spatial analysis of built-up areas with cadastral or municipal-level occupancy records.
In this context, emerging geospatial tools offer a timely opportunity to address these data gaps
and strengthen future stock estimation efforts. Recently, AEEE launched the Geospatial Open
Building Stack (GOBS)
xiii
, a satellite- and machine-learning–driven platform that generates
high-resolution insights into India’s building stock. A future rerun of the GOBS analysis,
potentially in 2027, when Google updates its datasets, can yield a definitive net rate of stock
addition (new construction minus demolition). This would significantly enhance the precision
of estimating sectoral growth and building churn. Integrating these updated geospatial outputs
with municipal-level records will allow future model iterations to reflect real-world stock
dynamics more reliably.
xiii
https://gobs.aeee.in/ Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 40
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
4.2.2 Commercial Building Stock
Commercial floor space estimation serves as the primary driver for modelling of operational
energy demand in India’s commercial building sector. Commercial energy consumption is
derived from floor space and Energy Performance Index (EPI) values assigned to building
types. Therefore, robust estimation of total commercial built-up area is central to projecting
long-term energy use.
The study adopts top-down approach to estimate total commercial building stock using
macroeconomic and demographic indicators rather than building-level inventories. This
method, developed and refined by RMI and NIUA in earlier studies, is structured as follows:
Commercial Building Stock = Number of Service Sector Employees × Average Floor Area per Employee
Where:
Service sector employment is calculated as:
Population × Share of Economically Active Population × Share of Employment in Services
Share of Economically Active Population: India’s economically active population,
defined as those engaged or willing to engage in productive work, is assumed to
increase from approximately 40% in 2020 to around 61% by 2047, stabilising at 62%
by 2070. This is similar to the current figures for the United States (62.3%), Germany
(61.1%), and China (61.4%) and reflects demographic stabilisation, urbanisation with
increased workforce participation.
Share of Employment in Services Sector: From 31% of total employment at
present, the share of service sector employment is assumed to rise to 35% by 2047
and stabilise at 47% by 2070, as the economy continues its transition from agrarian
and informal sectors to formalised, service-oriented growth. This is in line with
global trends, China’s share of service sector employment increased from 33% in
2005 to nearly 48% by 2021, following increase in domestic consumption, logistics,
and urban service infrastructure.
Average floor space per employee is assumed to be constant at 10.7 m
2
/person
across the modelling horizon. This assumption figure is in line with other studies and
is based on inputs provided during stakeholder consultations, reflecting perceived
impacts of rising land prices and the adoption of space-efficient designs like open-
plan offices and flexible workspaces.
Building Type-wise Segregation
India’s commercial floor space is projected to expand more than threefold from 1,314 million
square meters (sq m) in 2023 to 4,582 million sq m by 2070 driven by rising incomes, sectoral
shifts in employment, and improved access to health, education, and logistics infrastructure
(See Table 4.5 for building type wise breakup). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 41
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
Table 4.5: Projection of Commercial Buildings by Type, Showing Absolute Floor Area
(in Million sq m) and Share of Total Floor Area (in %)
Building Type2023 2050 2070Assumption
Hospitals 79 383 412
Increased hospital beds from 0.6 to 3 per 1,000
population in line with WHO recommendations
and achieved under Ayushman Bharat and state
missions.
Hotels 122 468 504
Rising domestic tourism, business travel, and
cultural circuits, Infrastructure and National
Tourism Policy push will raise India’s current
hotel rooms per 1,000 people from 0.2 to
emerging market benchmarks (e.g., Thailand’s
1.2).
Retail 287 723 780
Absolute area increases but share declines due
to consolidation into malls and e-commerce
growth mirroring global retail densification.
Office Space 307 851 916
Sustained growth due to rising formal
employment (projected to reach 45% by 2047).
Educational 237 766 824
Stable share of floor space aligned with National
Education Policy 2020 goals of raising enrolment.
Floor area expansion to accommodate rising
demand for secondary and vocational education.
Assembly
Spaces
192 340 366
Absolute area grows modestly, but share
declines as civic needs shift toward essential
infrastructure.
Transit
Infrastructure
12 85 92
Seven-fold growth in area driven by increased
passenger and freight movement (4-5 times
by 2070) driven by PM Gati Shakti, National
Infrastructure Pipeline, and metro rail expansion
and in line with China’s infrastructure expansion
experience.
Warehouses /
Logistics
78 638 687
India’s per capita warehousing space (0.03 m
2
) to
rise to that of China (0.15 m
2
) and the US (4 m
2
)
through National Logistics Policy, GST-enabled
hubs, cold chain expansion, and e-commerce.
4.3 Estimating Operational Energy Demand
Operational energy demand of India’s building sector is modelled using bottom-up approaches
that reflect different end-use patterns across residential, commercial, and cooking applications.
The models are based on national data sources, expert consultations, and international best
practices. Projections are made under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and the Net Zero
Scenario (NZS). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 42
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
4.3.1 Residential Sector
Residential energy demand is modeled using appliance-based approaches, as opposed to floor
space and Energy Performance Index (EPI)-based methods used for commercial buildings.
Unlike in commercial buildings, energy intensity in Indian residential buildings does not
correlate with space because of differences in appliance ownership and their efficiency levels.
An appliance-driven approach, thus, provides better estimates of energy demand, and helps
account for technology improvements, efficiency gains, and behavioural shifts. Additionally,
residential energy demand depends on demographic trends, technological transitions, appliance
penetration, and consumer behaviour. Figure 4.1 illustrates the modelling approach and
parameters used to predict residential energy demand, focusing on household-level electricity
demand from appliances and other energy-using systems.
The energy services included in the framework are lighting (CFLs, LEDs, tube lights),
television, refrigerators, cooling (air conditioners and fans), water heating, water pumping,
washing machines, and space heating. While electric vehicles (EVs) also draw power from
residential sources, in the modelling framework they are associated with the transport sector.
Other minor contributors such as computers, Wi-Fi routers, grinders, and purifiers (water and
air) are excluded due to data limitations and their relatively small impact on overall demand.
Number of
Households•Lighting
•Televisions
•Refigerators
•Cooling
•Water Heating
•Water Pumping
•Washing Machine
•Space Heating
•EVs*
Building
Energy Demand
Population
Household
size
Appliances per
household &
Penetration rate
Energy Services
GDP
Urban Rural
Rate of
Urbanization
*EVs to connected with Transport sector
Technology
(CFL/LED etc),
wattage and
efciency
improvement
Appliances
Usage Patterns
Figure 4.1: Parameters Considered for Modelling Energy Demand in Residential
Buildings
Energy demand is calculated at the level of appliances or energy service units and then
aggregated to obtain total residential energy use. First, for each energy service category, the
penetration rate or the percentage of households that own the specific energy service units,
is derived from national surveys, income projections (linked to GDP), and consumer trends.
Then the average number of energy service units per household is determined. For example,
a household may own more than one fan or television and only one refrigerator and washing
machine. A diversity factor is also incorporated to account for limited usage of the units (For Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 43
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
example, a household owning three fans may only operate two).
These two parameters, penetration rate and appliances per household, combined with the total
number of households, are used to derive the total appliance stock.
Appliance Stock = Households × Penetration × Units per Household
For each appliance, demand is estimated based on three technical variables: rated power or
capacity, average hours of use per year, and the efficiency of the technology used. Efficiency
is technology-specific, for example, lighting may use CFLs, LEDs, or tube lights, each with
differing power consumption and efficacy. Air conditioners may be classified by tonnage (e.g.,
1-ton or 2-ton) and energy efficiency ratio (EER). To reflect this, appliances are disaggregated
by technology type, and weighted for the share of households using each technology.
Building Design and Climate Change Considerations
Beyond appliance usage, building energy demand is also influenced by architectural design
and climatic conditions. Building orientation, shading, reflective roofs, natural ventilation, and
generous daylighting lower residential energy demand from air-conditioners and electric lights.
The model assigns lower runtimes for cooling and lighting in homes where such architectural
features are in place.
Further, to incorporate the rise in cooling-degree days due to climate change, the model
considers higher hours of air conditioner use. Despite these considerations, a more detailed
and spatially detailed study in the near future would be necessary to comprehensively assess
these impacts.
4.3.2 Commercial Sector
Commercial sector energy demand is estimated using a bottom-up approach based on projected
floor space, end-use energy intensities i.e., Energy Performance Index (EPI) and building
efficiency standards. As economies develop, the demand for formal workspaces, services,
and institutional buildings expands proportionally. As outlined previously in section 4.2.2,
commercial building stock projections are derived from employment trends in the service sector
and per-employee workspace assumptions. Commercial energy demand is then calculated by
combining building stock with energy intensity values specific to different building typologies
and usage categories (AC and Non-AC). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 44
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Energy Performance Index
(kWh/sq.m/year)
EPI: ACEPI: Non AC
Figure 4.2: Benchmark Energy Performance Index considered for different building
types in commercial buildings (AEEE, BEE)
Building types like hospitals, hotels, retail outlets, office spaces, educational institutions,
warehouses, transit hubs, and assembly areas, each have unique energy performance profiles
(Figure 4.2 above). Figure 4.3 below illustrates the parameters considered for the energy
modelling for the commercial sector.

Energy
Demand
Total
Floor Space
Cloud storage
Pack houses
Ripening chambers
Data Centers
share of A/C and
Non-A/C space
EPI - Building
Type-wise
(AC & Non-AC)
Building 
Types:
•Hospitals
•Hotels
•Retail
•Ofce spaces
•Educational
•Assembly places
•Transit
•warehouse
Future increase in total floor 
space = F (Number of 
employees in service sector, 
per employee floor space)
Saving due to smart buildings penetrations
•ECBC
•ECBC+
•Super ECBC
Capacity,
Utilization rate
and SEC
IT Load Capacity, Utilization Factor,
Power Usage Efectiveness
Figure 4.3: Parameters Considered for Modelling Energy Demand in Commercial
Buildings
The baseline energy demand is calculated as:/h
ACNon-AC
Total Floor Space ? (Share of AC ? EPI + Share of Non-AC ? EPI )
building type
E ? Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 45
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
The model includes savings associated with the proliferation of smart buildings, such as those
which adhere to ECSBC, ECSBC+ and Super ECSBC standards. The additional savings for
these building types are highlighted in Table 4.6 (Source: BEE).
Table 4.6: Energy Savings from ECSBC-compliant Buildings
ECSBC and its superior variants Additional savings
Energy Conservation and Sustainable Building Code (ECSBC) 25%
ECSBC+35%
Super-ECSBC50%
Emerging Load Centres
Cold chains and data centres are expected to emerge as significant electricity consumers.
Cold storage energy use is modelled based on growth in refrigerated storage capacity and its
associated specific energy consumption, while data centre demand is projected using IT load
growth and power usage effectiveness (PUE) over time.
Data Centre Facilities
High energy intensity and continuous operation mean that data centers are a distinct and
increasingly relevant end-use category within the commercial sector. Their energy demand is
estimated using:
Electricity Demand = IT Load Capacity × Utilization Factor (UF) × Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE)
India’s IT load capacity is projected to reach 16 GW by 2030, largely driven by data localisation
policies and digital service expansion. At a typical utilization rate of 40% and a Power Usage
Effectiveness (PUE) of 1.6, this translates to an estimated electricity demand of around 10
GW in 2030.
In the medium-term (2030–2050), IT load is expected to grow at 12% per annum due to AI
integration. By 2050 IT load is projected to reach 64 GW, Utilization Factor to 50% and Power
Usage Effectiveness dropping to 1.4, resulting in a total electricity demand of approximately
45 GW.
In the long-term (2047–2070), the integration of quantum computing and further digitalisation
is expected to sustain growth at 6% per annum. By 2070, IT demand could reach 105 GW, with
further operational improvements (Utilization Factor at 60% and Power Usage Effectiveness
at 1.3) resulting in an estimated electricity demand of about 80 GW.
These projections underscore the increasing importance of data centres in national energy
planning. While their energy footprint expands, efficiency improvements through optimized
cooling systems, renewable energy integration, and advanced power management can help
moderate their energy demand. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 46
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
Cold Storage
Cold storages, pack-houses, and ripening chambers are another critical component of India’s
commercial energy use based on rising demand for perishable goods, processed food, and
pharmaceuticals. Energy demand from cold chain infrastructure is estimated for different types
of facilities based on their installed capacity, utilization rates, and specific energy consumption
(SEC) per tonne or per unit volume of stored material.
Energy Demand Cold Chain =Capacity × Utilization Rate × Specific Energy
Consumption
Table 4.7: India’s Cold Storage Facility Type-wise Growth Projection
Facility Type Unit Type
Capacity
(2017)
Capacity
(2070)
Utilisation
Rate
Specific Energy
Consumption (SEC)
(kWh/ tonne)
Cold StorageMillion Tonnes 35 70 75% 90
Packhouses Number of Units 500 1,80,750 55% 950
Ripening
Chambers
Number of Units 1,000 30,750 65%4,275
India’s cold storage systems currently exhibit high SEC values, often significantly above
global benchmarks, due to outdated technologies, poor insulation, and inefficient refrigeration
systems. Over the modelling horizon, the SEC for cold chain infrastructure is expected to
improve with the adoption of best practices and energy-efficient technologies (Table 4.7).
The modelling framework does not include energy demand from reefer vehicles (refrigerated
transport), which is addressed under commercial transport.
4.3.3 Cooking
Cooking energy demand is estimated using per capita useful energy requirement of 2 MJ
per capita per day, a benchmark widely used in energy access studies. This requirement is in
line with estimates in other studies like IEA Energy Access Outlook (1.9–2.5 MJ/capita/day),
Global LPG Partnership (2–2.2 MJ/capita/day), TERI’s India Cooking Energy Study (1.8–2.3
MJ/capita/day), Prayas (2.2–2.4 MJ/capita/day), and NIUA-RMI studies (1.9–2.1 MJ/capita/
day). The model does not differentiate between residential and commercial cooking energy
demand, reflecting real-world overlaps in food preparation and supply chains.
Figure 4.4 illustrates the parameters considered in modelling cooking energy use. Total useful
energy demand is calculated from population projections and household size, with urban and
rural segmentation reflecting variations in cooking fuel access and efficiency. Final energy
demand applies fuel-specific efficiencies across LPG, PNG, biomass, and electric cooking
technologies. Fuel mix transitions are projected using historical adoption trends, urbanisation
rates, policy incentives, and expected technology improvements. The assumptions on these
parameters are presented in Annexure B. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 47
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
 
Number of
Households
Population
Household
size
Urban Rural
per Households
Energy Demand
Useful Energy
Demand
Final Energy
Demand
Technology
Penetration
•PNG
•LPG
•Biomass
•Electric
Efciency
Urban Rural
Figure 4.4: Parameters Considered for Modelling Energy Demand for Cooking
4.4 Scenarios For Energy Modelling
The modelling framework assesses energy demand trajectories under two contrasting scenarios.
The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) reflects business-as-usual developments based on currently
implemented or officially announced policies. The Net Zero Scenario (NZS) explores an
ambitious yet plausible pathway aligned with India’s 2070 Net Zero target. Assumptions
differentiating these pathways consider technological and behavioural changes, as well as
policy and implementation capacity.
4.4.1 Residential Sector
Residential energy demand is shaped by appliance efficiency, building envelope performance,
cooling needs, and user behaviour. The scenarios diverge on how these factors evolve in
response to policies and market transformation.
Appliance Efficiency
Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), efficiency improvements are assumed to follow
a steady trajectory consistent with the evolution of India’s Standards & Labelling (S&L)
programme. Major residential appliances, such as fans, refrigerators, lighting, and air
conditioners, are assumed to converge toward the best-performing options currently available
in the Indian market. This transition is modelled as gradual and progressive, aligning with
typical appliance replacement cycles and current adoption patterns across income groups.
Under the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), appliance efficiency reaches levels aligned with current
(2024) best-in-class global benchmarks. This assumption assumes no future breakthroughs in
appliance technology ensuring the scenario remains grounded in today’s technical feasibility.
Adoption progresses over time, reflecting likely policy support through expanded labelling,
market transformation programmes, and efficiency improvement. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 48
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
Thermal Performance and Cooling Demand
In both scenarios, air-conditioners (ACs) penetration in the residential sector is projected
to rise from approximately 8% in 2022 to 65% by 2047 and 80% by 2070. This growth is
primarily driven by rising incomes, urbanisation, and thermal comfort aspirations. Growth is
assumed similar in both scenarios.
Cooling-related electricity demand in the residential sector is influenced by appliance efficiency
and building envelope thermal quality. In the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), adoption of
thermal performance standards such as the Eco-Niwas Samhita (ENS) remains limited to only
5% of new residential buildings by 2070. As a result, despite increased access to cooling, poor
building design leads to high space cooling loads per household.
In the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), new housing thermal performance improves through wider
application of ENS-compliant construction. This includes insulation, shading, reflective
roofing, and ventilation. By 2047, 15% of new residential buildings are assumed to adopt
these features, and rising to 25% by 2070. These enhancements significantly reduce effective
cooling energy demand. Air-conditioned floor area remains similar in both scenarios due to
rising incomes and thermal comfort aspirations.
User Behaviour
User behaviour, particularly in appliance usage patterns and thermostat settings, plays an
important role in shaping residential electricity demand. However, behaviour is also difficult
to influence through policy alone, as it depends on habits, social norms, and perceptions of
comfort.
While Mission LiFE promotes energy-conscious habits like higher AC temperature setpoints
and reduced usage, these are offset by rising cooling demand due to climate change and
evolving comfort expectations. Globally, such trends are well-documented. In China, longer
AC usage hours increased average residential cooling intensity fivefold from 0.8 kWh/m
2
in
2000 to 4 kWh/m
2
by 2017
53
. In the U.S., nearly 95% of locations have seen an increase in
cooling degree days since 1970
54
, with AC ownership now above 90% and usage hours steadily
rising. Reflecting this, the Net Zero Scenario (NZS) assumes lower AC usage hours than the
baseline, guided by Mission LiFE principles, while still accounting for upward pressure from
rising temperatures and first-time users.
4.4.2 Commercial Sector
In commercial buildings, the scenarios are differentiated mainly through changes in energy
performance index (EPI), adoption of low-carbon building standards, and the extent of air-
conditioned floor space. The share of air-conditioned floor space is assumed to grow similarly
in both scenarios. This is because cooling demand in commercial buildings is largely driven
by aspiration and services (See Annexure B). The Net Zero Scenario does not limit access to Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 49
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
thermal comfort, but focuses instead on delivering energy services more efficiently, through
improved design and performance standards. The key points of divergence across the two
scenarios are detailed below.
Energy Performance Index (EPI)
Effective EPI (energy use per square metre of total commercial floor space) is expected
to increase over time due to the growing share of air-conditioned floor area and higher
energy intensity associated with air-conditioned spaces. However, despite this increase in
service intensity, the energy intensity of buildings (measured per square metre of conditioned
space) is assumed to gradually decline due to ongoing technology upgrades and system-level
improvements.
In the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), these improvements are modest, and yield a 10%
reduction in intensity by 2070, largely due to the natural upgrade cycle of commercial
equipment. However, these improvements are limited in scope as older commercial stock-such
as small offices, retail outlets, and private institutions- continue to operate with suboptimal
systems, and there is no widespread mandate for retrofits.
In the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), improvements of 15% by 2070 are assumed, enabled by wider
uptake of building energy management systems (BEMS), occupancy-based lighting and cooling
controls, and better zoning of HVAC systems. These assumptions recognise that retrofitting older
commercial stock at scale will require significant institutional and financial support.
Low-Carbon Buildings Standards
The Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS) differ in their adoption of
low-carbon building codes and standards, including the Energy Conservation and Sustainable
Building Code (ECSBC) and its enhanced variants (ECSBC+ and Super ECSBC). The scenarios
also differ in their institutional capacity and penetration in Tier-II and III cities.
Under the CPS, the implementation of building codes is limited. Although ECSBC is notified
in many states, its enforcement is weak and complied mostly in premium urban developments.
Under the NZS, there is greater enforcement of the codes in public buildings, improved
institutional capacity, and growing market interest in green-certified spaces (Table 4.8).
Table 4.8: Penetration Growth Assumed for Energy Conservation and Sustainable Building Code
(ECSBC) and its Superior Variants in the Building Sector

Current Policy Scenario Net Zero Scenario
2050 2070 2050 2070
ECSBC12% 20% 18% 30%
ECSBC+6% 10% 12% 20%
Super ECSBC3% 5% 6% 10% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 50
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
4.4.3 Cooking Sector
Cooking energy demand has been modelled based on household fuel share evolution across
urban and rural segments. The model considers long-term trends in fuel stacking, affordability,
and infrastructure access. The two scenarios reflect different transition rates from traditional
fuels to cleaner alternatives (Annexure B).
While this shift is more ambitious than in Current Policy Scenario (CPS), the Net Zero
Scenario (NZS) remains realistically conservative. It accounts for continued affordability
challenges, grid reliability issues, and cultural inertia that sustains traditional cooking methods,
particularly in remote and low-income households. Infrastructure constraints in expanding
PNG and electric induction networks beyond urban cores also moderate the pace of change.
These assumptions are informed by historical NSSO data, the ACCESS survey, and recent
trends under schemes like PM Ujjwala Yojana. They do not presume complete electrification
or universal fuel switch, even under NZS.
While the Net Zero Scenario (NZS) represents a high-ambition, realistic pathway for low-carbon
transition of the building energy demand, it does not capture the full range of decarbonisation
opportunities. Structural and behavioural constraints, such as slow shifts in cooking fuel mix
and partial adherence to energy codes, limit the potential reductions. Greater reductions could
result from behavioural change, large-scale retrofits, and future technological breakthroughs.
4.5 Building Sector Energy Demand Outlook: Results and Trends
4.5.1 Residential Energy Demand: Urbanisation, Appliances, and Comfort
Figure 4.5 depicts current and projected energy demand from key appliances in residential
buildings. India’s residential energy demand is rising because urbanisation, economic growth,
and improved access to electricity are enabling households to broaden their use of energy
services. From basic lighting and cooking to space cooling, water heating, and household
appliances, the shift reflects rising living standards, changing aspirations, and an emphasis
on comfort and convenience.
Unlike the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS) envisions demand
growth will be combined with aggressive interventions, such as accelerated uptake of efficient
appliances, cleaner mode of heating and cooling technologies, and behaviour-led demand
management. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 51
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
0
600
900
300
1200
1500
2020 202520502070
Lighting Cooling Heating Refrigerator+TV+Other Appliances
Energy Demand (TWh)
CPS NZS CPS NZS
Figure 4.5: Energy Demand Projection from Appliances in Residential Buildings
under Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Lighting, once a dominant source of residential electricity use, has seen a significant efficiency
improvement due to the widespread adoption of LED technologies. In 2020, residential lighting
demand stood at 40 TWh. Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), it is expected to increase
to 66 TWh by 2050 and 69 TWh by 2070. However, in the Net Zero Scenario (NZS) , greater
efficiency programs result in lower lighting demand, 62 TWh in 2050 and 48 TWh by 2070,
because efficient technologies will moderate energy use despite growing demand.
Cooling is the fastest-growing demand in Indian homes, driven by rising heat stress, urban
aspirations, and affordability. Fewer than 10% of households currently own air conditioners,
which is set to surge in future. Under the CPS, electricity consumption for cooling is projected
to rise significantly from 123 TWh in 2020 to 834 TWh by 2070. Under the NZS, early
adoption of efficient cooling systems and behaviour-led interventions are projected to raise
demand to a lower level to 596 TWh in 2070, underscoring the importance and effectiveness
of energy efficient appliances, and climate-aligned interventions. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 52
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
The Cooling Surge: Rising Demand in a Warming Climate
Cooling is the most rapidly escalating component of building energy demand in India, driven by
rising temperatures, more frequent heatwaves, and economic growth enabling wider adoption
of cooling devices. This “cooling surge” is evident in booming air-conditioner sales, expanded
use of evaporative coolers and fans, and a rising number of Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
across much of the country. More CDDs translate to longer hours of fan and AC operation,
and without intervention, climate-linked load growth could push cooling energy needs to
unprecedented levels as extreme heat becomes the new normal.
The impact on peak electricity demand is a major concern. During heatwaves, simultaneous
AC use creates sharp evening peaks, straining grids and triggering brownouts. As ownership
grows, peak loads will intensify, risking a “peak load crisis” on the hottest days. IEA projects
a 60% rise in peak electricity demand by 2030, with cooling driving nearly half the increase.
The surge is also self-reinforcing: waste heat expelled from AC units contributes to urban heat
islands, making cities even warmer and driving further cooling demand. Recognizing these
risks, the India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP) outlines strategies to deliver “cooling for all”
while restraining energy use. Key measures include improving thermal envelopes, adopting
passive cooling techniques (shading, green roofs, ventilation), tightening efficiency standards
for appliances, and exploring alternatives like district or evaporative cooling. Traditional Indian
designs—courtyards, jaali screens, thick walls—combined with modern materials (reflective
paints, insulation) can significantly reduce indoor temperatures and avoid mechanical cooling
needs. IPCC studies highlight that in warm climates, bioclimatic design alone can avoid a
large share of cooling demand.
International experience underscores the urgency. China’s rapid increase in air-conditioner
penetration, exceeding 60% of urban households within two decades, led to a sharp surge in
cooling-related electricity demand. India could mirror or even surpass this trajectory in the
absence of timely policy, regulatory, and market-based interventions to improve efficiency,
manage demand, and expand alternative cooling solutions. The U.S. reached near-total AC
saturation long ago, leading to very high per-capita cooling demand and summer grid peaks.
U.S. utilities responded with demand-response programs and time-of-use tariffs, which India
may need to adopt. In contrast, Europe historically cooling-light now faces rising AC sales after
recent heatwaves but focuses heavily on retrofits, shading, and ventilation to limit demand.
Its “Renovation Wave” upgrades old buildings with insulation and heat pumps, reducing both
heating and emerging cooling needs. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 53
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
Cooling is both a major challenge and an opportunity. Left unmanaged, it could dominate future
energy demand and emissions, while well-designed interventions—urban planning, passive
architecture, efficient appliances, and smart operation can provide comfort sustainably. A Net
Zero pathway shows that even with expanded cooling access, overall demand can be contained
through these measures, avoiding a massive drain on power systems. India can also learn from
global examples: district cooling in the Middle East, natural ventilation in Southeast Asia, and
advanced building codes elsewhere. Targeting cooling efficiency is thus critical to shaping a
low-carbon building sector.
Heating, which includes both space and water heating, is gaining significance with the
affordability of electric and solar geysers and space heating needs in colder regions. Under
the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), electricity demand from this sector is expected to grow
from 27 TWh in 2020 to 96 TWh in 2050 and 106 TWh in 2070. Under the Net Zero Scenario
(NZS), with more efficient technologies, demand would reach 76 TWh in 2050 and moderate
to 70 TWh in 2070. This too illustrates how clean technology adoption can facilitate greater
access with lower emissions.
Other appliances, covering refrigerators, televisions, washing machines, and other household
devices, reflect India’s improving living standards. Under the CPS, electricity use for other
appliances is expected to grow from 115 TWh in 2025 to 277 TWh in 2050 and 281 TWh in
2070. Under the NZS demand is projected to reach 192 TWh in 2050 and to 210 TWh in 2070.
Summary: The residential sector’s energy profile is shifting from one dominated by basic
lighting and cooking towards a more diversified mix including space cooling and appliance use,
with growth strongly correlated to income and urban lifestyles. Higher-income urban residents
consume significantly more energy for comfort and convenience – for example, running multiple
fans, refrigerators, and entertainment devices – whereas poorer or rural households still consume
only a fraction of that, sometimes limited by affordability or access. This divergence underlines
the dual challenge: expanding energy access for underserved populations while curbing excessive
or inefficient consumption among the rapidly growing middle class. Encouragingly, wealthier
households often purchase more efficient appliances (thanks in part to standards and labeling
programs), but any efficiency gains can be offset by the greater number and size of appliances
in use. Thus, managing residential energy demand will require not just efficient technology but
also attention to consumer behavior and “sufficiency” – avoiding wasteful energy use even as
living standards improve.
4.5.2 Commercial Buildings: Floor Space Growth and New Demands
Energy use is increasing in India’s commercial and institutional buildings. Economic growth,
and development and a shift towards service sector are increasing the number of offices, malls,
hospitals, hotels, and other commercial buildings. Total commercial floor space is increasing Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 54
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
even as floor area per employee is low, a reflection of high urban land costs and evolving
workspace designs. More floor space and longer operating hours mean greater requirements
for lighting, air-conditioning, ventilation, and equipment. Globally, non-residential (i.e.,
commercial) buildings energy use has climbed faster than residential buildings, a pattern
India is poised to follow.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2020 2025 20502070
Electricity Demand (TWh)
CPS NZS CPS NZS
Figure 4.6: Electricity Demand (Excluding Data Center) Projection for the
Commercial Building Sector under Current Policy Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero
Scenario (NZS)
Figure 4.6 indicates that in 2020 electricity demand from commercial buildings stood at 106
TWh. Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), this is expected to rise sharply to 417 TWh
in 2050 and 504 TWh in 2070. Under the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), with higher adoption of
low carbon buildings, electricity demand grows relatively moderately to 476 TWh in 2070.
A shift in the share of different floor-
space segments will also determine
future commercial energy use.
For instance, offices and retail currently
constitute nearly half of the commercial
floor space. However, by 2050, other
segments such as warehouse, cold-
chains, or data centres – as discussed in
the previous section–will have grown
rapidly. The share of air-conditioned
spaces will also go up from the present
25% to 60% in 2050.Changing Energy Use
End-use patterns within commercial buildings are
changing rapidly. Space cooling and ventilation
have become dominant loads especially in large,
glass-clad buildings relying on centralized air
conditioning in India’s hot and humid climate. Plug
loads from office equipment, servers, elevators, and
retail signage are growing across building types.
Fortunately, lighting in commercial spaces is moving
swiftly toward LEDs and smart controls like motion
sensors and daylight harvesting, helping to moderate
lighting demand despite extended operating hours. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 55
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
Summary: The commercial buildings sector in India is on a steep upward trajectory in energy
demand, propelled by floor space growth and new types of loads. Without intervention, this
trajectory could mirror the experience of other rapidly growing economies where commercial
energy use surged by double digits, outpacing other sectors. However, it also presents an
opportunity since much of India’s future commercial building stock is yet to be built, there is
significant scope to shape it via efficient design (daylighting, insulation, efficient HVAC systems)
and smart energy management, thus avoiding being locked into inefficient energy use. Policies
like mandatory Energy Conservation Building Codes for large commercial buildings are crucial
in this context, as are efforts to promote energy management systems and high-performance
technologies in commercial operations. The rise of data centers particularly calls for strategic
planning including integration of renewable energy to ensure these new loads are met sustainably.
4.5.3 Transition in Cooking Energy: Clean Fuels and Changing Habits
Cooking remains a foundational energy service in Indian homes, and its evolution marks one of
the most significant shifts in the building energy landscape. Historically, rural and low-income
households relied on solid biomass (firewood, crop residues, dung) using simple stoves or open
fires, resulting in severe impacts on health and air quality. Over the past decade, India’s clean-
cooking push anchored by the Ujjwala scheme and Liquid Petroleum Gas (LPG) subsidies has
brought LPG connections to tens of millions of households, especially in rural areas. Urban
families have already moved predominantly to LPG and, more recently, to piped natural gas
(PNG) and electric cooking options such as induction stoves and microwaves. Yet, in many
rural households, fuel-stacking persists, where LPG is blended with biomass for reasons of
affordability and accessibility.
In 2020, traditional biomass supplied more than three-quarters of India’s cooking energy
but delivered only around 40% of useful cooking service, reflecting the low efficiency of
rudimentary stoves relative to LPG, PNG, and electric cooking. LPG accounted for roughly
22% of energy use while meeting about 57% of cooking demand; PNG contributed a small
share concentrated in urban areas, and electricity and Traditional Biomass were negligible
(See Figure 4.7) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 56
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
Energy Demand (
MTOE
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2020 202520502070
Biofuel Biomass Electricity LPG PNG
CPS NZS CPS NZS
Figure 4.7: Energy Demand Projections for Cooking under Current Policy Scenario
(CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), biomass is eliminated in cooking fuel mix by 2050,
but LPG remains the dominant fuel. As shown in Figure 4.8, by 2050, LPG supplies about
42% of total cooking energy demand, followed by PNG (19%), electricity (13%), modern
biomass (25%). By 2070, LPG provides 30% of the total, with PNG at 40%, electricity at 39%,
and biogas at 1%. This reflects households’ reliance on LPG’s well-established distribution,
cultural familiarity, and relative affordability, while shifts to electricity and biogas remain
gradual.
In contrast, the Net Zero Scenario (NZS) achieves a much more diversified and efficient
transition. By 2050, LPG would account 45% of total demand, followed by electricity at
28%, PNG at 26%, and biogas contribution of 1%. By 2070, LPG’s share would decline to
15% of total, followed by PNG expanding to 26%, electricity growing to 57%, and biogas to
2%. This shift would be enabled by stronger electrification, wider PNG networks, and greater
adoption of biogas, coupled with more efficient cooking technologies that reduce overall
energy demand.
From the above, it is clear that CPS locks households into LPG dependence for decades,
whereas NZS achieves diversification, efficiency, and resilience, critical for both climate
and energy security goals. The implications of the cooking energy transition are profound.
In the near term, it is primarily an issue of energy access and health moving households to
cleaner fuels yields immediate benefits by reducing indoor air pollution with huge health
gains, especially for women and children. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 57
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
Summary: The cooking sector’s results show a transition from traditional to modern energy
that is well underway and set to continue. The exact pathway will depend on policy support,
technology (for example, affordable induction stoves and reliable power in villages could be a
game-changer), and cultural preferences. Urban and rural differences will need to be addressed
by tailored approaches, urban areas might focus on electrification and gas grids, while rural areas
might emphasize LPG distribution and perhaps decentralized biogas. Importantly, both scenarios
underscore that by mid-century India can virtually eliminate the historical reliance on solid fuels
for cooking, marking a pivotal shift in the building energy landscape.
4.5.4 Overall Energy Demand
In 2020, building energy demand in India was dominated by cooking, which contributed to
four times the combined demand from residential and commercial buildings (Figure 4.8).
However, this mix is expected to shift over time. Cooking demand would decline steadily,
reflecting the widespread transition to cleaner and more efficient fuels and the near-elimination
of traditional biomass use.
Energy Demand (
MTOE
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
CPS NZS CPS NZS
2020 202520502070
Residential Commercial Cooking
Figure 4.8: Overall Energy Demand from Building Sector under Current Policy
Scenario (CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
These projections signal a structural transformation in India’s building sector energy use.
While current energy demand is dominated by cooking, by 2070 residential and commercial
electricity services, particularly cooling and appliances, would dominate. Policy ambition
would significantly shape this trajectory. Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), demand
would escalate with economic growth, while under the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), efficiency
improvements, passive design, and clean technology adoption could contain energy use despite
improved comfort. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 58
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results
Summary: Several forecasts point to a electrification of India’s building sector over the next
three decades. In 2020, electricity accounted for roughly one-fifth of total building energy
demand—20 percent according to Bloomberg and 24 percent per NITI Aayog. By 2050, both
project a marked shift towards electrification, reaching 70% validating the modeled trajectory of
electricity becoming the dominant energy carrier in buildings. IEA expects India’s air-conditioner
stock to grow tenfold by mid-century, consistent with the modeled surge in cooling demand as
a key driver of future electricity use.
When comparing absolute demand growth in 2050, there is strong convergence across studies
despite methodological differences. NITI Aayog’s estimates show commercial building demand
increasing 3.7 times, while residential demand grows more than 3 times. RMI projects a similar
magnitude, with commercial demand up 4.2 times and residential demand up 2.6 times. The close
agreement across these independent sources validates the directional trends—rapid electrification,
cooling as a dominant load, and significant growth in both residential and commercial energy use
Electricity Demand
Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), electricity demand in India’s buildings would
increase more than fourfold from 412 TWh in 2020 to about 1997 TWh in 2070. Under
the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), enhanced appliance efficiency, particularly improvements in
air-conditioning performance and passive building design, would reduce demand by about
16% to around 1671 TWh by 2070. (See Figure 4.9). Notably, air-conditioning efficiency
improvement alone would save nearly 700 TWh by 2070 corresponding to approximately
500 MtCO
2
lower emissions (at current grid emission factor). This further highlights the role
cooling and appliances will play in future building electricity demand, and the critical need
for efficiency improvements to moderating energy demand growth.
The data centers would place an additional 700 TWh of demand by 2070. Given the
unpredictable and rapidly evolving nature of digital infrastructure, this demand is analysed
separately. When included, it would raise total building-related electricity consumption in 2070
to five times the 2025 levels under the NZS and by seven times under CPS.
Additional Digital Infrastructure Load
By 2070, data centers alone could exceed the commercial sector electricity demand.
Baseload Nature: Unlike cooling, which drives seasonal and diurnal peaks, data centers create
a continuous 24/7 baseload, shifting grid load profiles.
Location Concentration: Clusters in urban and digital hubs will require localized grid
reinforcements and renewable integration. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 59
Sectoral Energy Demand Modelling and Results

Residential Commercial Cooking
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2100
2020 202520502070
CPS NZS CPS NZS
Electricity Demand (TWh)
Figure 4.9: Electricity Demand for Building Sector under Current Policy Scenario
(CPS) and Net Zero Scenario (NZS)
1. Electricity’s share in total building energy demand would rise from 24% at present
to 70% by 2050. The increased electrification would present two key challenges:
Managing peak loads, especially during cooling-driven demand spikes in extreme
heat events, and
2. Carbon emissions associated with higher electricity generation, depending on the
future share of non-renewables in the grid.
Dedicated Working Groups were convened to examine low-carbon transition options in the
power and industry sectors. Further details are available in the sectoral reports, Volume 4
(Industry Sector) and Volume 7 (Power Sector). 1 5
CHALLENGES,
BARRIERS AND POLICY
GAPS FOR NET ZERO
TRANSITION 62Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings
5
Challenges, Barriers
and Policy Gaps for
Net Zero Transition
The preceding sections discussed the India’s building sector and its future emission trends.
Building sector emissions are projected to increase manifold, driven by additional floor space,
socio-economic factors, and the effects of climate change itself. Policies such as BEE’s
Standards & Labelling (S&L) program and Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All (UJALA)
succeeded in improving energy efficiency of appliances. Although building energy codes
have been developed and strengthened but persistently low compliance has constrained their
effectiveness, resulting in slower-than-expected progress. However, with nearly 1 billion m
2

new floor space being built every year, more aggressive efforts are required to ensure that the
newly constructed buildings are more energy efficient. Addressing rising embodied emissions,
enhancing the efficiency of the existing building stock, and improving trends in grid emissions
factors will be important to support broader efforts to manage climate-related risks affecting
the built environment. This section provides an overview of the current challenges, barriers and
policy gaps for building sector low-carbon transition, focusing on policy sufficiency, market
ecosystems, data availability, skills and supply chain.
Table 5.1: Summary of Building-sector-Specific Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps

Building energy codes & standards Market development Workforce and skills
Building sector
energy and
emissions data/
models
Absence of credible national-level consolidated data and trends on
building sector growth and projections to inform infrastructure decisions
Need of data to understand market trends and inform policy design
Incomplete evaluation of policy effectiveness due to lack of on-the-
ground performance data
Building energy
codes: Coverage
and performance
metrics
Mandatory codes apply to a small subset of new buildings. Existing
building are excluded
Focus on ‘design stage’ operational energy. Whole life energy/ carbon
performance and climate resilience metrics not included
Absence of minimum envelope thermal performance requirements in
commercial building codes Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 63
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
Absence of quantifiable performance requirements for mitigating heat
stress in naturally ventilated buildings
No mandatory commissioning protocols and guidelines
Need for performance data and benchmarks to inform future code
development
Building
energy codes:
Implementation and
enforcement
Disparities across states and UTs in maturity of enforcement systems,
with weak institutionalization of compliance workflows.
Manual and resource intensive compliance procedures
Limited capacity of ULBs for compliance checks
Inadequate qualified third-party professionals for compliance checks
No penalty provisions for non-compliance with codes
Market development
Demand-side
interventions
Buildings:
No information to prospective buyers and tenants on building
performance to drive market demand
Need for ‘real-world’ energy performance validation and benchmarking
Incentive structures not tailored to different stakeholder groups
Appliances:
Scope to strengthen BEE’s S&L to cover broader range of technologies
Weak enforcement of testing and verification protocols erodes consumer
confidence
Need for targeted policies to nudge consumer behaviour
Materials:
Need for Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs)
Underdeveloped public sector green procurement policies to help drive
demand and economies of scale
Supply-side
interventions
Appliances:
Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) below international
trends and best practices
High dependence on imported components and lack of comprehensive
policy support ecosystem to address supply chain constraints
Materials:
Absence of long-term low-carbon transition policy visibility for carbon
intensive construction materials and products.
Absence of policies to tackle unsubstantiated green claims
Need for targeted polices to mainstream secondary materials and those
using industrial waste streams. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 64
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
Research &
innovation
Need for targeted support ecosystem for research and commercialization
of building products and technologies. Wide remit for current programs
No quantitative criteria to appraise, benchmark, and certify low carbon
products and technologies
Limited feedback loop from field trails and demonstration projects
Need for visibility on the forward trajectory of low-carbon transition
policies which inhibits investment in low carbon alternatives
Workforce capacity
& skills ecosystem
Need for comprehensive view of construction skills and gaps
Need for explicit focus in training programs on low carbon materials,
components and technologies
Absence of dedicated training on operational energy management for
asset management professionals and trades
Insufficient emphasis on informal sector
Fragmented training ecosystem
5.1 Building sector energy and emissions data/ models
At present, there is no official data source to establish baseline values or to systematically
track policy implementation and impacts on an annual or biannual basis. The challenges
pertaining to sector are:
i. Absence of credible national-level consolidated data and trends on building sector
growth and projections: The lack of a nationally consolidated and regularly updated
dataset on building stock, floor area growth, typologies, and future demand limits the
ability to develop robust projections. This constrains informed planning of energy, cooling,
and urban infrastructure investments and weakens alignment between building-sector
growth and broader development pathways.
ii. Limited data to understand market trends and inform policy design: Inadequate
and fragmented data on technology adoption, cost trajectories, financing models, and
consumer behaviour restricts understanding of evolving market dynamics. This limits the
ability to design targeted, evidence-based policies and to anticipate market responses to
regulatory and fiscal interventions.
iii. Incomplete evaluation of policy effectiveness due to lack of granular on-the-ground
performance data: In the absence of systematic, real-world performance data on
building energy use, comfort outcomes, and compliance constrains the assessment of
the effectiveness of building codes, standards, and incentive programmes. As a result,
policy impacts cannot be consistently evaluated, limiting feedback for course correction
and iterative policy refinement. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 65
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
5.2 Building Energy Codes: Coverage and Performance Metrics
i. Coverage of mandatory codes: Mandatory building energy codes currently cover a very
small proportion of the projected building stock to 2070, estimated to be less than 1%.
This, coupled with the lag in adoption of codes by states and UTs as well as enforcement
gaps (refer section 6.2), is one of the key impediments for low-carbon transition of the
building sector.
ECBC
xiv
and its latest version, ECSBC only cover new commercial buildings >100kW,
or depending on the state regulations those >120kVa. It is yet to be adopted in 10 states
and 3 UTs. Eco-Niwas Samhita (ENS) is a voluntary code for new residential buildings
with a plot area >500 m
2
, and anecdotally adoption has been minimal
xv
. The recently
launched ECSBC-R 2024 for residential buildings is yet to be adopted by states and UTs.
No specific codes exist for existing buildings.
ii. Lack of whole life carbon and climate resilience metrics: The codes focus on ‘design
stage’ operational energy, and to a limited degree on thermal comfort in air-conditioned
buildings. Key gaps and limitations are:
Absence of minimum required envelope thermal performance requirements in
commercial building codes and lack of emphasis on passive design strategies.
ECBC provides option to trade off envelope thermal performance requirements with
improvements in equipment performance in certain circumstances, resulting in high
cooling demand and high marginal cost of retrofitting the building fabric in the future
to meet low-carbon transition targets.
Absence of quantifiable performance requirements for mitigating heat stress and
improving thermal comfort in naturally ventilated buildings
No disclosures and/or targets related to building embodied carbon
xvi
, which can be
as much as 50% of the total whole life carbon of a building.
55,56
Lack of mandatory commissioning procedures and guidelines at whole building level
or component level, which can deliver substantial operational savings at minimal
extra cost. Published literature suggests that proper commissioning can deliver energy
savings of 10-20% with similar reduction in operating costs.
57,58
Addressing these gaps will be key to ensuring we meet our long-term low-carbon transition
targets, while enhancing resource efficiency, energy security, ensuring resilience to climate
change and minimising the associated negative impacts on health and productivity.
xiv
Note that the Energy Conservation and Sustainable Building Code (ECSBC) 2024 is not currently adopted by any of the states or UTs.
xv
No comprehensive data on ENS adoption is available, and based on inputs from working group members, level of awareness among
developers is low.
xvi
ECSBC has an optional requirement to report embodied carbon related to stages A1-A3 (extraction and manufacturing of materials
and building components) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 66
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
iii. Lack of performance data and benchmarks for code evolution: Currently, there is
limited ‘real-world’ performance data to comprehensively assess the lifecycle costs and
benefits of compliance with existing building codes across India’s diverse climatic zones
and regions. This evidence gap weakens policy feedback loops by limiting insights into
the on-ground performance of deployed technologies and the implementation challenges
faced by design and project teams. It also limits the ability of design professionals to
setting realistic and up-to-date design stage KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) and for
asset managers to understand potential for improvements. It also limits the ability of design
professionals to setting realistic and up-to-date design stage KPIs (Key Performance
Indicators) and for asset managers to understand potential for improvements.
Current initiatives, such as BEE’s voluntary ‘star rating’ scheme, are a step in the right
direction. The scheme could however benefit from a more extensive and comprehensive
set of data across building typologies and regions, as well as frequent review of typical,
good and best practice benchmarks considering technological advancements and changing
technology costs. Table 5.2 below provides a comparison of Energy Performance Index
(EPI) values and target values for 5-star rating under the ‘star rating’ scheme for select
office buildings. The comparison indicates that buildings are achieving EPI values 40-
50% better than those for 5-star rated buildings, suggesting there is significant scope to
raise the bar.
Table 5.2: Comparison of EPI Reference Values Under the BEE ‘Star Rating’ Program with
Good Practice Case Studies
Atal Akshay Urja Bhawan
SIERRA’S
eFACiLiTY®
Unnati Office
Building type Office, Delhi Office, ChennaiOffice, Noida
Climate Composite Warm-humid Composite
EPI for BEE 5- star rating
(kWh/m
2
.y)
76118109
Declared EPI (kWh/m
2
.y)4756.260
% improvement 38%52%
45%
Environmental declarations for construction products
Requirement to disclose environmental performance as part of wider disclosures for all construction
materials/ products (e.g., Construction Products Regulation in Europe to be implemented mid-
2026)
Energy benchmarking laws: Mandate disclosure of energy/ carbon performance to enable better
benchmarking (e.g., mandated disclosure of embodied carbon data for new buildings by Greater
London Authority, energy transparency ordinances in the US) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 67
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
Data and benchmarks: LETI (Low Energy Transformation Initiative)* in the UK has set out
good and typical practice benchmark values for upfront embodied carbon (A1-A5) to help design
teams set realistic yet ambitious targets at the design stage, along with guidance and toolkits to
help achieve those targets. The benchmark values are to be reviewed over time to reflect changes
in technologies and associated costs.
Figure 5.1: International Example of Benchmarking Initiatives and Policies
Mandating Data Disclosures
* LETI. (2020). LETI Embodied Carbon Primer.
(i) https://www.leti.uk/_files/ugd/252d09_8ceffcbcafdb43cf8a19ab9af5073b92.pdf
(ii) https://www.leti.uk/_files/ugd/252d09_25fc266f7fe44a24b55cce95a92a3878.pdf
5.3 Building Energy Codes: Implementation and Enforcement
There is a significant lag in the adoption of building codes across States and Union Territories
(UTs). Not all states and UTs have adopted Energy Conservation and Building Codes (ECBC)
as a mandatory code since it was introduced in 2007, and different versions exist in the
jurisdictions where they have been adopted. As shown in Figure 5.2, 13 States/UTs are yet to
notify the ECBC. Among those that have adopted the code, 18 States/UTs have notified the
ECBC 2017/2020 version, while 5 States/UTs continue to implement the 2007/2008 version,
often with varying scope and applicability. Maharashtra most recently notified the ECBC in
May 2025, indicating incremental progress amid persistent implementation gaps. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 68
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
 
 
 
 
Amended t o include 
plot/builtup-area 
 
 
Amended ba sed on 
connec ted load  
Without amendm ent in scope 
Amended t o include 
conditioned area 
 Yet to be notified 
ECBC-2017/ 20[18]  
ECBC-2007/ 8[5]  
Yet to be adopt ed[13]  
Figure 5.2: Status of ECBC Adoption in India
(Source: https://beeindia.gov.in/en/programmes/buildings-0 and AEEE analysis
The enforcement related challenges vary by jurisdiction, though broadly can be summarised
as below:
i. Disparities across states and UTs in maturity of enforcement systems, with weak
institutionalization of compliance workflows: There are significant variations in
level of maturity by states/ UTs, with often insufficient processes and systems for
rigorous compliance checks. Some use in-house officials (e.g. Punjab), while others
use external auditors (e.g. BEE certified energy auditors in Kerela, approved third-
party assessors in Telangana). In other jurisdictions officials rely on self-declaration
by the architect (such as in case of Haryana).
ii. Incomplete evaluation of code effectiveness due to lack of granular end-use data:
In the absence of a national demand-side data framework, enforcement agencies
cannot validate whether design-stage code compliance translates into actual energy
savings, as current national statistics track aggregate sectoral energy flows rather
than socket-level end-use granularity (e.g., cooling, lighting, etc.) and the building
performance for code-compliant and non-code compliant buildings.
iii. Manual and resource intensive compliance procedures: While some states have
or are in the process of introducing online portals, the use of manual compliance
procedures in most jurisdictions provide limited ability to monitor, track and provide
comprehensive regional data.
iv. Limited capacity of ULBs for compliance checks: Most municipal bodies lack
the capacity, both in terms of skills and resources, for enforcement, verification and
compliance checks. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 69
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
v. Insufficient qualified third-party professionals for compliance checks: Some of
the states have faced challenges with non-availability of sufficient pool of certified
third-party assessors (TPAs). The reasons for this are not entirely clear.
vi. No penalty provisions for non-compliance with codes: While state/ local bodies
have powers to introduce financial penalties, none have been levied so far except
for holding up the completion certificates. This further dilutes the compliance rigour.
Some states such as Telangana have been working towards addressing some of these
implementation gaps and can provide useful steer and learning for other states/ UTs to
enhance code implementation. Figure 5.3 below provides an overview of the ECBC approval
process for Telangana. The state introduced an online portal for submission and approval
process to facilitate consistency of data submissions and transparency. Empanelled TPAs
carry out compliance check both at design-stage and during construction. Additional random
post-occupancy inspections may be conducted by municipal authorities during construction
stage and post-occupancy. The issuance of Building Operations Certificates (BOCs) by
municipal bodies has been linked to ECBC approval. States such as Madhya Pradesh, have
made permanent electricity connection contingent on ECBC compliance, thereby discouraging
buildings to be occupied in the absence of a valid BOC.
Stage I
Design Phase
Stage II - 
Post Construction
Phase
Architect and
MEP Consultant
Real Estate
Developer
Third Party
Assessor
Third Party
Assessor
Municipal 
Corporation 
Online Approval
System
Building Committee
Approval
DISAPPROVAL
Prepares objections. 
Meets Applicant to 
Resolve Issues
APPROVAL
Construction
Phase
Begins
Real Estate Developer
(RED) Prepares Design
in Consultation with
Architect and MEP
Consultant
1.2.3.4.
5.
RED Submits Design
to Third Party Assessor
(TPA). TPA Gives EC8C
Compliance Certificate
Municipal Corporation 
may conduct additional 
random inspections 
post issuance of BOC
Municipal Corporation 
Issues Building 
Occupancy Certificate 
(BOC)
REO Applies for Bulking
Construction Approval
Through Online System 
Municipal 
Corporation may 
conduct random 
inspections during 
construction
Red submits the data (materials 
used, certificates etc.) to TPA for 
physical inspection. TPA issues 
Building Construction ECBC 
compliance verification 
certificate after inspection
Figure 5.3: ECBC Approval Process for Telangana
59 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 70
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
5.4 Market development
Developing a mature market for low-carbon, green, energy-efficient and resilient buildings
require a three-pronged approach, namely
i. Driving consumer demand for such buildings and associated components, materials
and products (demand-side interventions)
ii. Facilitating the supply of materials, products and associated supply chains that enable
such buildings to be constructed (supply-side interventions)
iii. Creating the enabling ecosystem for research and commercialisation of construction
techniques, materials and products that will drive future innovation in the sector.
5.4.1 Demand-side Interventions
i. Provide information to prospective buyers and tenants on building performance:
This is one of the first steps in creating awareness and providing more transparency to
end consumer, akin to what Standards and Labelling (S&L) program has been doing
in case of appliances. Where this information is benchmarked relative to typical
and good practice performance levels, it can help users make informed decisions.
International examples, such as the provision of energy labels (or ratings) at the point
of sale and rental under the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD)
and the NABERS energy rating scheme for commercial buildings in Australia
xvii
,
have shown positive outcomes in nudging the market in the right direction.
ii. Develop framework for ‘real-world’ energy performance validation and
benchmarking: Currently, there are no standardized national methodologies or
frameworks to appraise, benchmark and validate energy and/or carbon performance
on a like-for-like basis. Even when reviewing published data from case studies,
comparisons are often challenging due to different boundary conditions, inclusions
and exclusions. Validated ‘real-world’ energy performance can form the basis for
green premiums for low-carbon and efficient buildings (or alternatively brown
discounts for inefficient buildings) and help build the business case for action. They
also create a feedback loop to understand on-the-ground challenges & performance
of innovative and/or new technologies.
iii. Build dedicated national building data platform: Currently, India lacks a dedicated
national public platform to systematically capture and harmonise demand-side
building energy data. Operational performance, appliance and retrofit outcomes,
and India-specific embodied carbon data are therefore collected inconsistently,
xvii
A NABERS Energy rating is compulsory whenever an office building larger than 1,000 square meters is being sold or leased. It has
helped create a culture of “building for performance” rather than “building for compliance”. Since it’s mandatory introduction in
2010/11 it has improved the average energy intensity of Australian rated offices by 42% (data published 2022, source: https://www.
nabers.gov.au/sites/default/files/energy_efficiency_in_commercial_buildings_summary.pdf) Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 71
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
using non-standard formats and boundary conditions, limiting robust benchmarking
and policy evaluation. Fragmented disclosures constrain like-for-like comparisons
across buildings, technologies, and materials. A unified building energy data platform
with standardised, third-party-validated disclosures would enable credible national
benchmarking, support green-premium and brown-discount market signals, inform
green finance decisions, and establish a continuous evidence loop to strengthen
building codes, standards, and incentive frameworks over time.
iv. Incentive structures tailored to different stakeholder groups: No specific
incentives exist to encourage adoption of low-energy and/or low-carbon buildings.
However, incentives for compliance with green building ratings are being offered
in some states (e.g. increased Floor Area Ratio (FAR), or rebate on stamp duty or
property taxes). The green building ratings differ in their ambition and therefore
may not always work as proxy for good energy performance of buildings. It is also
worth highlighting that incentives alone will not necessarily drive market demand at
scale. The low uptake of reduced-interest credit lines, such as KfW’s credit line for
high-performance envelopes in residential buildings
xviii
, suggests that there are wider
systemic barriers at play e.g. limited skills & supply chains, consumer awareness,
etc. The role of non-financial incentives such as expedited permitting, technical
assistance, as well as recognition and rewards needs to be further explored.
v. Strengthen BEE’s Standards & Labelling (S&L) program to cover broader
range of technologies: BEE’s S&L program has helped drive energy efficiency
improvements for building appliances and HVAC equipment, and is a good example
of how disclosure can nudge market transformation. Gaps that need addressing to
further enhance the scheme are:
Exclusion of certain technologies from the current scheme, such as heat pumps
and evaporative coolers, that could be a vital part of the future mix of cost-
effective technology solutions for cooling and thermal comfort
xix
.
Weak enforcement of testing and verification protocols that may erode consumer
confidence in labelled appliances.
Exclusion of GHG emissions associated with refrigerants in the labels, which
can be significant depending on the type of refrigerant used.
vi. Targeted policies to nudge consumer behaviour: Current programmes insufficiently
address behavioural economics, i.e. nudges, information design, or demand
aggregation, to promote energy-efficient appliance choices. Study conducted by
AEEE
60
to evaluate the impact of dynamic-displays on household behaviour yielded
valuable insights into room air conditioner (RAC) usage, how socioeconomic factors
xviii
AEEE experience as one of the project implementation partner
xix
VRF systems, packaged DX and solar PVs are in the pipeline for inclusion in the program. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 72
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
influence responses, and the effectiveness of awareness-based nudges. Notably,
displaying real-time energy consumption and sending periodic and timely awareness
messages encouraged households to change usage patterns, achieving 3-4% energy
savings. The study evidenced Mission LiFE’s behavioural transformation strategy
in action, and demonstrates that low cost, scalable behaviour change tools can yield
measurable energy savings.
vii. Disclosure framework on environmental performance of building materials/
products: This includes data relating to their thermal characteristics, embodied
carbon, reuse/recycled content, and circularity potential. Environmental Product
Declarations (EPDs) are certificates that are used to disclose information based on
a defined methodology. While international frameworks exist, there is a need for a
national methodology and associated rules for each category and sub-category of
building materials and products. EPDs are needed to enable benchmarking of product
carbon intensities and performance, and drive the market for low carbon alternatives.
viii. Develop public sector green procurement policies to help drive demand and
economies of scale: Inclusion of low-carbon, energy efficiency and climate resilience
criteria in public procurement can significantly boost demand for associated products
and materials. The demand certainty provided can drive innovation and investment in
manufacturing facilities, as well as realise economies of scale to bring costs down.
On the contrary, national and state level schedule of rates rarely include low-carbon
materials and products, or typically have a long time-lag for inclusion.
5.4.2 Supply-side Interventions
i. MEPS thresholds can be raised to international trends and best practices:
Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) for appliances are not keeping
up to reflect market evolution or international best practices, weakening their market
transformation potential to drive low-carbon transition. The gap for some of the key
building sector appliances has been discussed earlier in Section 3.
ii. Develop a comprehensive policy support ecosystem to address supply chain
constraints: A significant proportion of the critical components for high-efficiency
air-conditioners and fans are imported, including compressors (more than 85%),
PCBs and controllers (more than 80%), Brushless Direct Current (BLDC) and
non-Brushless Direct Current (Non-BLDC) motors (80%, fans and blowers (20%),
and grooved copper tubes (nearly 100%)
61
. Dependence on imports creates supply
chain risks and increases costs for end consumers. It, however, presents a huge
opportunity for creating economic value through domestic production by combining
targeted policies with a support ecosystem for research and commercialisation. The
Production Linked Incentive Scheme for White Goods (PLIWG), launched in 2021 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 73
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
and subsequently revised in 2023, is a step in this direction. It provides financial
incentives to boost domestic manufacturing of white goods and components. It has
shown some value addition for specific categories of products, i.e., compressors,
motors and LED drivers. It could, however, benefit from further simplification,
expanding the scope to a wider set of technologies and components (e.g. heat pumps
and control electronics), as well as enabling better MSME participation.
iii. Set up targets and long-term low-carbon transition policy visibility for
manufacturers: For construction materials covered under the PAT scheme i.e.
cement, iron & steel, and aluminium, specific energy consumption targets are set
over a 3-year cycle, though these targets do not cover GHG emissions associated
with manufacturing processes or the extraction of raw materials. Impact analysis of
the scheme to date has highlighted the level of ambition in terms of the strictness of
targets as a constraint
62
. Apart from materials covered under PAT, there are currently
no targets to reduce material or product carbon (or energy) intensity including from
brick manufacturing, which accounts for the majority of masonry construction in the
country
xx
. Lack of long-term goals and uncertainty about future benchmarks hinder
effectiveness and investment decisions.
iv. Formulate policies to tackle unsubstantiated green claims: The lack of disclosures,
along with the absence of a green taxonomy for key building products (i.e., threshold
values to claim a product is green/ low carbon), means there is no way to tackle
misinformation on green claims and ensure fair competition. It is noted that the
taxonomy for green steel was introduced in December 2024, and a similar taxonomy
is needed for other key building products.
v. Targeted polices to mainstream secondary materials and those using industrial
waste streams: India’s Long-term Low-carbon Development Strategy (2022)
acknowledges the need for industry-specific solutions to address waste and for
budgets to be allocated to pursue R&D. Construction and Demolition (C&D) Waste
Management Rules by MoEFCC also promote recycling and reuse. Also, certain
financial incentives already exist in the value chain, e.g., excise duty exemption
for waste-based building materials; equity and term loan support for manufacturing
building materials/ components using agricultural and industrial wastes by Housing
and Urban Development Corporation (HUDCO). However, creating a financial
incentive or disincentive at the point where such waste streams are being diverted
(e.g., landfill tax in certain countries) to landfill is needed to assign a monetary value
to such waste streams, and thereby encourage further innovation and investment.
xx
MoEFCC regulates air emission standards for the brick manufacturing sector, but not GHG emissions associated with the
manufacturing process. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 74
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
5.4.3 Research and Innovation
The current R&D support ecosystem broadly consists of the following organisations and
initiatives:
i. Building Materials & Technology Promotion Council (BMTPC) has been mandated
to promote innovative, resource-efficient, climate-resilient, disaster-resistant
construction practices. As the technology partner for MoHUA’s Technology
Sub Mission (TSM), BMTPC facilitates the adoption of modern and innovative
technologies for faster & quality construction of houses. It also evaluates and certifies
materials and construction systems under the Performance Appraisal Certification
Scheme (PACS).
ii. Incubation Centers (with grant support from MoHUA) have been set up under
ASHA-India in four IlTs (Bombay, Kharagpur, Madras, Roorkee CBRI-CSIR) and
at North-East Institute of Science and Technologies (NEIST), Jorhat.
iii. Technology Innovation Grant (TIG) promotes innovative technologies under
lighthouse projects.
The key barriers and gaps in the enabling ecosystem to facilitate the transition from lab to
commercialisation include:
i. Need for targeted support ecosystem for research and commercialization of
building products and technologies: Wide remit for current programs, with no
dedicated focus on technologies that are critical to India’s development and low-
carbon transition needs (e.g., low-energy and low-cost cooling systems, alternatives
to clay bricks that result in loss of agricultural topsoil and land degradation,
prefabricated modular construction, etc.)
ii. Need for quantitative criteria to appraise, benchmark, and certify low-carbon
products and technologies, which could then form the basis for further technological
and financial support.
iii. Need for feedback loop from field trials and demonstration projects to understand
performance. Lessons from field trials and pilot projects are not systematically
captured or used to update codes, tools, or incentive schemes.
iv. Need for visibility on the forward trajectory of low-carbon transition policies
that can help with demand certainty and therefore underpin the business case for
investment in manufacturing facilities or other assets. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 75
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
Case Study: Global Cooling Prize Challenge
Launched in 2018 by RMI, India’s Department of Science and Technology, Mission Innovation,
CEPT University, AEEE, RMI, and Conservation X Labs, the Global Cooling Prize challenged
innovators globally to design residential air conditioners with at least 5 times lower climate
impact than standard units. Over 2,100 teams from 96 countries registered; eight finalists received
funding to build prototypes that were rigorously tested in CEPT University’s climate-simulation
laboratory and in real-world apartment settings in India.
This initiative significantly enhanced institutional capacity: CEPT University designed testing
protocols and built testing infrastructure, elevating India’s technical laboratory capabilities
in appliance evaluation. Meanwhile, cross-sector participation, from universities, startups,
and established manufacturers like Daikin and Gree, fostered research collaboration,
knowledge exchange, and innovation networks across countries and disciplines. The
initiative also led to the formation of the Global Cooling Efficiency Accelerator,
which continues to support commercialization, develop revised test methods, and engage
policymakers and manufacturers to scale up breakthrough cooling technologies globally.
By combining clear performance targets, global collaboration, lab based validation, and
downstream scaling mechanisms, the Global Cooling Prize exemplifies a successful model of
strengthening R&D systems and institutional capacity in the building sector.
5.5 Workforce Capacity and Skills Development
A skilled workforce is required to design, construct, operate, maintain and retrofit buildings
over their lifecycle. This includes design professionals (architects, engineers, specialist
consultants), construction trades (masons, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, etc.), HVAC
installers, commissioning engineers, plant operatives, and energy auditors, among others. There
is currently limited information on the current status and gaps in skills. The key challenges
facing the sector are:
Need for comprehensive view of construction skills and gaps. There is no comprehensive
assessment of workforce skill levels and training needs specific to low-carbon construction
across the value chain. Stakeholder consultations indicate that skills gaps exist across the
board, particularly in the areas of low-carbon materials and technologies (e.g., handling &
installing insulation products, handling & curing alternative low carbon cements, etc.).
i. Need for explicit focus in training programs on low-carbon materials, components
and technologies. There is currently a wide mandate for agencies involved.
ii. Absence of dedicated training for operational energy management. Training
for facilities managers and O&M professionals neglects critical aspects of energy
management, demand response, and performance tracking.
iii. Insufficient emphasis on informal sector. Most training and awareness initiatives
target organised sector stakeholders, overlooking the vast informal workforce
responsible for on-ground construction. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 76
Challenges, Barriers and Policy Gaps for Net Zero Transition
iv. Fragmented training ecosystem. Existing training and awareness efforts are
scattered across institutions, and no central feedback mechanism to assess outcomes
or course-correct. There is no specific focus on building materials & technologies in
national skill development initiatives, such as PMKVY, AMBER, PM Vishwakarma,
etc. This is no information on the success of existing training and awareness programs
imparted through National Building Centres & what (if any) linkage exists with
efforts underway by BMTPC.
A more forward-looking set of targeted upskilling programs is required to train the workforce
for design, construction and operation of low-carbon buildings and technologies, which will
be the norm in the future.
Case Study 1: Solar Decathlon India (SDI)
Solar Decathlon India, initiated in 2020 by IIHS and AEEE under IUSSTF/DST, replicates the
U.S. DOE Solar Decathlon model within Indian academia and industry. Students from over 150
institutions collaborate on real-world netzero projects across six building typologies, supported
by industry partners, mentors, and simulation tools. By providing access to performance-based
modeling, multidisciplinary curriculum modules, and live project engagement, SDI enhances
institutional research capacity and establishes a pipeline for green building expertise within
universities and the corporate sector. It cultivates sustainable design R&D through prototype-
building and industry linkages, while alumni transition into climatetech roles, supporting workforce
capacity and policy, awareness in India’s formal building sector
Case Study 2: European Union: BUILD UP Skills Initiative
The BUILD UP Skills initiative, launched by the European Commission, aims to strengthen
the skills of building professionals across Europe to support the transition toward high-energy
performance renovations and nearly zero-energy buildings (nZEBs). The initiative focuses on
addressing skill gaps across the construction value chain, from onsite workers and installers to
engineers and architects, by developing national skills roadmaps, designing innovative training
and qualification schemes, and fostering mechanisms that enhance the uptake of such training.
BUILD UP Skills aims to expand Europe’s skilled building workforce to deliver high-performance
renovations and nearly zero-energy buildings (nZEBs). It focuses on: skills intelligence (mapping
green-transition skill gaps), skills development (training in deep renovation, nZEB, heat pumps,
BIM, and circular construction), and skills uptake (awareness campaigns, skills passports,
professional registers, and procurement frameworks). The initiative supports the EU Pact for
Skills, targeting upskilling/reskilling of 25% of the construction workforce (3 million workers)
in five years. By aligning training schemes, national roadmaps, and capacity-building with this
goal, it helps prepare the construction sector to meet green transition demands and EU climate
objectives. 1 POLICY
SUGGESTIONS
6 78Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings
6
Policy
Suggestions
This section builds on India’s architectural legacy and contemporary lessons to frame
actionable policy, emphasising a whole-life carbon perspective. The suggestions also call for
strengthening of building codes and their compliance, and indigenisation across materials,
skills, and innovation. They are presented not as distant targets but as a pragmatic and prioritised
roadmap for the next two decades, recognising that strategies must remain adaptive to evolving
technologies, economic transitions, and climate realities.
The suggestions are grounded in evidence and shaped through extensive consultations with
working group members and industry stakeholders. They are sub-categorised to mirror the
structure of the preceding analysis of key challenges, barriers, and policy gaps, ensuring a
clear line of sight from diagnosis to action.
There are near-term operational savings, medium-term embodied-emission reduction, and the
system enablers, forming a credible pathway to Net Zero buildings by 2070. The interventions
have been organised and prioritised across short-term (i.e. those before 2030), medium-term
(before 2035) and long-term interventions (beyond 2035). The suggestions are intended to
drive the following outcomes:
i. Provide visibility of forward policy trajectory: Clear visibility on the forward
trajectory of standards and targets is critical to enabling businesses and manufacturers
to make informed investment and strategic planning decisions. It will also drive
investment in research and innovation to deliver both economic and environmental
benefits. Specifics of each of the policy interventions will be further detailed as part
of the action plan, including implementation mechanism, roles and responsibilities,
and indicative threshold values or targets over short, medium and long-term
xxi
.
ii. Incrementally expand the proportion of new and existing building stock falling
within the remit of building codes: It is imperative to progressively expand the share
xxi
Threshold values or targets, where relevant, will be developed as part of the detailed design of the policy instrument considering
both a top-down approach (i.e. trajectory needed to meet long-term targets) and bottom-up approach (that is, the lifecycle cost and
benefits of current technological solutions to meet target values). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 79
Policy Suggestions
of the building stock covered under building energy codes, while also broadening
the scope of performance metrics to include resilience to heat stress and lifecycle
embodied carbon. For smaller buildings/ developments (that currently do not fall
within the remit of ECSBC and ENS), more simplified versions of the codes are to
be developed to ensure the regulatory burden is not disproportionate. Given the long
design life of building envelopes and the high cost of retrofitting in the future relative
to the marginal cost of integrating energy-efficient fabric measures at the construction
stage, building codes to have minimum thresholds for thermal performance of the
building fabric (minimum values for ETTV
xxii
or RETV
xxiii
). EETV values are to be
tailored to the climatic zone with a view to mitigating heat stress, reducing cooling
loads, and the resultant grid infrastructure.
iii. Drive market transformation through demand-side interventions, including
disclosures, awareness and incentives: Disclosure of operational and embodied
carbon data was acknowledged as a critical first step to driving demand for low-
carbon buildings, building components and products. Such disclosures aim to provide
insights into the ‘real-world’ performance of buildings and the associated supply
chain. This, in turn, informs benchmarking and green labelling, as well as provides
valuable data and insights for future policies and targets. Standardised methodologies
(e.g., for Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) or operational energy ratings)
enable consistent and comparable disclosures. Secondly, learnings from international
policy implementation indicate that provision of (energy or carbon) performance
data to end users at the point of sale or rental helps drive green premiums for
more efficient and/or low carbon buildings and products. Tailored incentives, both
financial or non-financial, for different industry stakeholders can further help to
create demand for efficient, low-carbon buildings and products.
iv. Use public procurement policies to drive demand for low-carbon materials
and products: This helps create demand at scale to nudge the market in the right
direction. The public sector is seen as leading by example. The demand certainty
drives innovation and investment in new solutions and products.
v. Nudge market transformation through supply-side interventions: Having the
right policies to boost energy and resource-efficient manufacturing, addressing
any supply-side constraints in terms of availability of raw materials and skills
(including over-dependence on imports of critical components), plus incentivising
use of agricultural and industrial waste streams, can all deliver downstream benefits
for the building sector. Consideration should also be given to tiered/ preferential
incentives under the PLI scheme for components and technologies that are critical
xxii
Envelope Thermal Transmittance Value
xxiii
Residential Envelope Transmittance Value Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 80
Policy Suggestions
for the manufacturing of high-efficiency white goods and appliances. It is, however,
recognised that these interventions are the remit of the industrial working group, and
it is recommended that these are considered as part of the overall industrial sector
low-carbon transition roadmap.
vi. Enable market transformation through research and innovation: Dedicated
programmes and targeted grants are needed to support research and development in
green and low-carbon materials and products, alongside commercialisation support
to enable their transition from laboratory research to demonstration and early market
deployment. Forward visibility on policies that drive demand for such green products
will help underpin the business case for investment in manufacturing facilities and
developing associated supply chains.
vii. Ensure construction skills and trades keep pace with changing technological
landscape: There is a clear need for dedicated programmes to build skills and
capacity across the workforce and trades involved throughout the building lifecycle.
Systems and processes are also needed to track and monitor skills and training gaps,
which will inform the future focus of such programs.
viii. Enable data-driven approach to future policy design: To model and track the
impact of building sector policies on GHG emissions now and in the future, it
is recommended that a comprehensive national building sector energy model and
framework be developed. The model should have functionality to enable bottom-up
and top-down scenario analysis and assess the impact of moderate to aggressive policy
interventions on future low-carbon transition trajectories for the building sector. The
model can be enhanced with satellite-based monitoring, coupled with land-use data
to reliably capture current building stock, annual growth and future projections. The
model’s functionality should be expanded to include embodied carbon of materials
as well as the impact of future climate change on energy use, thermal comfort and
cooling demand.
Over time, as ‘real-world’ energy consumption data starts to become available from
surveys and disclosures recommended in this chapter (e.g., number of code-compliant
buildings, energy use in existing buildings, embodied carbon data, etc.), the model
inputs and attributes can be continually refined to aid future policy design. Such a
model will be an important policy design tool for public sector agencies, in particular,
given the complex and disaggregated nature of the building sector. In effect, primary
building data, real-world energy consumption data, and modelling of future trends all
need to work in tandem. The national model and underpinning data collection can
be institutionalised to inform the policy pivot that will inevitably need to happen in
the medium to long term. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 81
Policy Suggestions
Figure 6.1 presents a high-level overview of the policy interventions further detailed in Table 6.1, highlighting the key themes and focus areas
of the recommended policy measures. The figure serves as a visual summary of the phased and coordinated measures proposed to enable a
Net Zero transition in the building sector.
NEW BUILD
SUPPLY CHAIN
Building  codes & standards
Interventions to enhance impl ementation of codes & standards
Workforce and skills
Market development: Demand-side interventions
Market development: Supply-side interventions
Market development: Research & developmentECSBC expanded to cover embodied carbon and 
climate, transitioning to net-zero standard over time
Simplified code/RETV targets for 
small commercial >500 m
Promoting ENS for new residential >500 m2 
transitioning to net-zero standard over time
Targeted incentives for % 
improvement over codes
Large public sector projects to 
disclose embodied carbon
Strengthening of S&L program for appliances. 
To cover refrigerants & embodied carbon
Embodied carbon targets for large public & 
commercial blgs, followed by small com. & resi
EPDs for construction material & products. 
Green labels of low-carbon products
Visibility of medium to long term targets under 
PAT, Progessively expand remit. Incentivize use 
of waste streams as raw materials
Targeted grants and fiscal incentives 
for research & commerialization
EXISTING
POLICY IMPLEMENTATION
WORKFORCE & SKILLS
Disclosure of actual EPI at point of sale & rental for 
existing commercial
Star labelling of existing commerical buildings 
based on disclosed EPI 
Requirement to upgrade energy performance 
of worst star rated existed commercial
TPAs, reasonable penalities jurisdictions, 
strengthening local capacity through 
Standardized system and online portals across
Develop national building energy data 
framework with clear roles and responsibilities 
and with sufcient detail and granularity for 
efective policy making and reliable forecasts.
Targeted training for professionals and 
all trades. Systems to track and monitor 
progress.
Figure 6.1: Overview of Building Sector Suggestions for Net Zero Transition Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 82
Policy Suggestions
Table 6.1 summarises the proposed policy interventions for enabling a Net Zero transition
in India’s building sector, structured across the building lifecycle and aligned with short-,
medium-, and long-term timelines. The table consolidates suggestions spanning building
energy codes, compliance and enforcement, market development, data and disclosure,
financing mechanisms, materials and construction practices, and workforce skilling. Together,
these interventions provide a phased and coordinated policy framework to address current
implementation gaps, avoid long-term carbon lock-in, and support the development of a more
energy-efficient, low-carbon, and climate-resilient building stock.
Table 6.1: Summary Matrix of Proposed Policy Interventions
Building energy codes & standards Market development
Workforce and skills Data & models to inform policy and reliable forecasts
1. National building energy stock model & framework
Short term (before
2030)
National Data Architecture & Governance: Establish a centralised building
energy data platform within BEE Efficiency Energy Data Management Unit
(EDMU). Formalize data-sharing coordination with MoSPI, NITI Aayog,
and MoEFCC. Strengthen State Designated Agencies (SDAs) to enable sub-
national disaggregation of energy consumption and building stock data.
Integrated Data Inventory: Release a national building energy and stock
inventory by synthesizing measured data (e.g., anonymized utility billing,
smart meter, etc.), surveys (appliance penetration, usage hours, technology
adoption), and modeling (operational and embodied carbon projections)
Medium term
(before 2035)
Carbon Benchmarking at Scale: Integrate satellite-based building stock
monitoring and urbanisation trends with smart-metering data from CEA and
DISCOMs.
Dynamic Policy Review: Conduct comprehensive reviews of Energy
Conservation and Sustainable Building Code (ECSBC) and S&L programs
by combining utility electricity data with national surveys on household
consumption, appliance penetration, and urbanisation trends.
Sub-national Performance Tracking: Empower State Designated Agencies
(SDAs): Empower SDAs to capture city-level measured data on retrofit
outcomes and fuel-transition indicators. Utilize these benchmarks to target
local operational and embodied carbon reduction interventions.
Long term (beyond
2035)
National building sector dashboard: Validated data from model available to
relevant ministries, public sector organisations and researchers for informed
decision-making and as inputs to Biennial Transparency Reporting.
Satellite-Based Stock Monitoring: Integrate geospatial tracking with measured
energy data to definitively calculate the net rate of stock addition (new
construction vs. demolition) and its impact on 2070 Net Zero targets.
2. Tighter code standards for new commercial buildings
Short term (before
2030)
Required Mandatory minimum envelope performance thresholds under Energy
Conservation and Sustainable Building Code (ECSBC). Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 83
Policy Suggestions
Simplified code / Envelope Thermal Transmittance Value (ETTV) targets for
small commercial >500m
2
plot area.
Procedures stipulated for commissioning & handover of HVAC equipment.
Medium term
(before 2035)
Tighter targets (20-40% improvement) under ECSBC plus quantitative thermal
comfort criteria for naturally ventilated buildings
Tighter ETTV (20-40% improvement) target for >500m
2
plot area.
Long term (beyond
2035)
Net Zero ECSBC for plot area >500m
2
.
ETTV targets for all other commercial premises to ensure resilience to heat stress.
3. Eco-Niwas Samhita (ENS) and performance disclosures for new residential
Short term (before
2030)
Promote ENS for plot area >500m
2
. States encouraged to adopt ENS in their
jurisdictions.
Medium term
(before 2035)
Tighter ENS targets (20-40% improvement) for plot area >500m
2
Long term (beyond
2035)
Net Zero ENS for plot area >500m
2
‘Design based’ disclosure of performance at point of sale and rent for
residential units in plots >500m
2
4. Disclosures and targets for existing commercial
Short term (before
2030)
Disclosure of actual EPI at point of sale & rental for buildings falling under
ECSBC as market signal for green premiums
xxiv
. Procedures for notification of
designated entities, reporting protocols and penalties to be defined. Online portal
to be set up for reporting and data collection that enables data to be used for
benchmarking and future target setting.
Rules for Star labelling based on disclosed EPI to be redefined (validity period,
disclosure requirements, etc.) building on BEEs existing star labelling program
Medium term
(before 2035)
Requirement to upgrade energy performance of worst rated existing
commercial based on benchmarking of disclosed EPI
Use accumulated empirical data to inform design of government or Discom
incentive schemes.
5. Incentives for improved EPI
Short term (before
2030)
Financial incentives for green buildings linked to % improvement over
ECSBC and ENS. Incentives to be provided both for developer and end
customer (e.g., stepped increase in FAR depending on modelled EPI for
developer and rebate on property taxes for buyer).
Guidance to be developed for states/ UTs to operationalize the incentives,
including accreditation protocols and penalties in case of non-compliance
post-construction.
6. Green labelling of equipment and appliances
xxiv
Green buildings give whole building rating but not ratings specific to energy consumption and emission Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 84
Policy Suggestions
Short term (before
2030)
Third party accreditation for green labelling of equipment & appliances under
BEE S&L program.
Labelling to cover GHG emissions for refrigerants.
Medium term
(before 2035)
Thresholds for labels to be revised to raise the bar in line with international
benchmarks.
Green labels for appliances & equipment to cover both embodied carbon &
refrigerants.
Long term (beyond
2035)
Thresholds for labels to be reviewed and revised in line with international
benchmarks.
Phasing out of worst rated equipment
7. Embodied carbon disclosures, benchmarks and targets
Short term (before
2030)
Standard Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology & rules for construction
materials/ products and building-level LCA
Phased introduction of Environmental Product Declaration (EPD)
requirements for building materials & products. Product category rules (PCRs)
developed by experts to enable like-for-like comparisons across specific
product categories (e.g., steel, brick, admixtures, etc.).
Approved independent accreditation bodies or individual verifiers for
accrediting EPDs
Online public register of accredited EPDs, readily searchable. National
database of generic material / product embodied carbon values made
available, which are to be used in absence of product specific EPDs.
EPD data used for benchmarking and assigning green labels for low-carbon
products.
Green-labelled products are included in the public sector schedule of rates
(national. state, UT) on an ongoing basis.
Public sector (> defined threshold) & commercial buildings falling under
ECSBC disclose embodied carbon. Online portal for reporting and data
collection that enables data to be benchmarked and used for future target
setting.
Medium term
(before 2035)
Embodied carbon reduction targets for large public sector (> defined
threshold) & commercial buildings under ECSBC.
Long term (beyond
2035)
Tighter embodied carbon reduction targets for all public sector & commercial
projects falling under ECSBC
Embodied carbon reduction targets for small commercial & residential
buildings.
8. Facilitating better enforcement of building codes and standards
Short term (before
2030)
Establish a standardized pool of Third-Party Assessors (TPAs). Develop and
enforce a unified set of criteria and guidelines for TPAs across states and
Union Territories. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 85
Policy Suggestions
All states and UTs to establish a dedicated web portal to streamline the
application, verification, and approval processes for ECBC code compliance.
Data and systems to be aligned to provide comprehensive national level data.
Introduce enforceable and reasonably moderate penalties for non-compliance
with codes, including withholding occupancy approval and essential services
like electricity, water, telecom, etc., connections until compliance is met.
Transparency to be ensured by recording non-compliance issues on the web
portal.
9. Complementary industrial sector policies
Short term (before
2030)
Visibility of medium to long term GHG emission reduction targets under
Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) for key building materials (cement,
steel, metals, bricks, glass) to drive investment and innovation
Policies to improve supply of waste streams as raw materials, such as
penalties and/or incentives to divert agricultural and industrial waste from
being burned or going to landfill.
Medium term
(before 2035)
Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) remit progressively expanded to cover
other key building materials & products
Long term (beyond
2035)
Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT) remit further expanded to cover additional
building materials & products
10. Commercial ization support for green materials and energy efficient products
Short term (before
2030)
Targeted grants and other financial incentives for R&D, commercialization
as well as domestic manufacturing of green materials, energy efficient
equipment and critical supply chain components (e.g. tax incentives for ‘green
labelled’ products
xxv
). This includes specific policies to encourage academic
and research institutions to proactively collaborate with industry for product
development and commercialisation.
Provide support for commercialisation through RESCO/ESCO models
targeting low energy and low-cost cooling, low-carbon masonry, prefabricated
systems, high-performance envelopes
Medium term
(before 2035)
Track market progress, review and refine policies to support
commercialization.
Long term (beyond
2035)
Track market progress, review and refine policies to support
commercialization.
11. Targeted training for professionals and all trades
Short term (before
2030)
Mason and construction worker training specifically for new construction
techniques and materials (e.g., handling of low carbon cements, use of
agrocrete blocks, etc.).
Real estate companies and developers to be encouraged to spend CSR funding
on such training.
xxv
Refer suggestions on green-labelled products under row 6 ‘embodied carbon disclosures, benchmarks and targets’. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 86
Policy Suggestions
Certificate courses on energy management for industry trades (installers, plant
operatives repair and maintenance staff).
Mandatory sustainability modules in professional courses (architects,
engineers, asset managers).
Enhance ongoing training & capacity-building of officials involved in ECBC
approvals to include latest technologies, systems & best practices.
Medium term
(before 2035)
Set up systems and processes to track and monitor skills and training gaps,
and refine training programs as needed. 1 7
CONCLUSION
AND NEXT
STEPS 88Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings
7
Conclusion and
Next Steps
India’s Net Zero goals are well aligned with its long-term economic and development
goals. Ensuring resource-efficient, low-carbon, and climate-resilient growth in the building
sector is critical to realising India’s vision of a Viksit Bharat. This can be leveraged to position
India a global leader in these technologies.
There are currently significant barriers and policy gaps to mainstreaming low-carbon
and climate-resilient buildings. Mandatory codes cover a small fraction of the building stock,
and focus mainly on operational energy performance. They do not currently address aspects
related to lifecycle embodied carbon, climate-related heat stress, and resource efficiency.
Challenges exist in code implementation with significant variations across states and UTs.
There is limited data and a feedback loop to understand on-the-ground challenges, technologies
being deployed, and ‘real-world’ performance, as well as a lack of enabling market mechanisms
to drive demand and scale up supply chains for low-carbon buildings
The importance of comprehensive building sector data cannot be undermined.
Comprehensive sectoral data is needed to inform policy development, appraise the impact
of those policies, and track progress against national targets. The data needs to be granular
enough to capture regional variations in building sector attributes, market dynamics and
stakeholder behaviour. This sectoral data needs to be underpinned by data disclosures related
to product environmental attributes and asset performance, which are validated, consistent and
comparable. Such validated disclosures create awareness and form the basis of green premiums
needed to spur investment and innovation in low-carbon alternatives. Current policies, such
as BEE’s S&L programme, have demonstrated the market shift that such data discourses can
facilitate.
Low-carbon transition of the building sector requires a holistic approach. This includes
gradually expanding the remit and coverage of building codes and standards, tightening of
minimum performance standards over the medium and long term, enabling policies and
market mechanisms to drive demand for high-efficiency and low-carbon buildings, supply- Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 89
Conclusion and Next Steps
side interventions to decarbonise the supply chain and enhance transparency, while creating an
ecosystem that encourages more research and innovation. Comprehensive skills and capacity
building are needed for professionals and tradespeople across the building cycle.
Next Steps: Preparation of Action Plan
A key next step to operationalising this strategic roadmap is the preparation of an action plan.
The action plan will help translate India’s long-term targets into actionable items, enable
periodic reviews to assess where we stand and recast our path to Net Zero where needed. This
action plan will detail the following:
i. Implementation mechanism: Establish the mechanism by which the proposed
interventions will be implemented and operationalised, whether under an existing
legislation that assigns powers to specific government agency/ agencies or through
new legislation.
ii. Roles and responsibilities: Define the roles and responsibilities of the implementing
agency, other relevant public sector departments, industry bodies and stakeholders.
Establish reporting lines and protocols to ensure accountability. States play a pivotal
role in implementing national policies, with MoHUA/MoP, NITI Aayog providing
essential technical and financial support to drive compliance and capacity-building.
Urban development authorities and ULBs will also play an integral role.
iii. Design of policy instruments: Set out the key principles and high-level low-carbon
transition goals that will inform the detailed design of the proposed intervention,
including, for instance, indicative threshold performance values over short, medium
and long-term. The key principles and goals will need to be established, considering
both a top-down approach (i.e. trajectory needed to meet long-term targets) and a
bottom-up approach (that is, the lifecycle cost and benefits of current technological
solutions to meet target values).
iv. Timeline and key milestones: Establish a clear timeline for design and implementation
of the proposed interventions, along with specific milestones to track progress. This
timeline will need to align with national climate goals and relevant policy cycles.
v. Resource Allocation: Estimate the financial and human resources required to
implement the proposed interventions and identify funding sources, where relevant.
Explore innovative financing mechanisms, such as public-private partnerships, to
mobilise resources.
vi. Stakeholder Engagement: Develop a comprehensive stakeholder engagement
strategy to ensure broad-based support and input to the action plan. This includes
consultations with industry associations, professional organisations, civil society Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 90
Conclusion and Next Steps
groups, and building occupants. Strengthening global collaboration will also help
position India as a leader in sustainable buildings across the Global South, fostering
knowledge exchange and innovation.
vii. Monitoring and Evaluation Framework: Establish a robust monitoring and
evaluation framework to track the effectiveness of the action plan and make necessary
adjustments. This framework should include clear indicators, data collection
mechanisms, and periodic reviews.
By developing a comprehensive action plan to transition to a Net Zero building sector, India
can create a more sustainable, resilient, and prosperous future while unlocking significant
economic value. A concerted and collaborative effort will be key to fulfilling this vision. 1 ANNEXURES 92Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings
Annexure A:
Terms of Reference for
Working Group
Sub-group - 1: Integrated Building Design
Sub-objective
Examine barriers and related interventions for accelerating adoption of low carbon and energy
efficient construction technologies to mitigate climate induced heat stress and reduce GHG
emissions over the building lifecycle. The focus of this sub-group is on approaches for enabling
integrated design thinking to reduce lifecycle GHG emissions taking into consideration
building envelope thermal performance, as well as carbon intensity, durability and circularity
of building materials and construction systems. The outputs from this sub-group will from
part of the overall roadmap for building sector low-carbon transition.
Scope:
i. Examine (or provide input to relevant building sector models on) the business-as-
usual (BAU) growth in building sector GHG emissions considering GDP growth
trajectories and urbanisation aligned to development aspirations.
ii. Examine (or provide input to relevant building sector models on) the impact of
climate change on cooling demand.
iii. Examine the role of building envelope performance and related technologies
in bringing down the energy demand, improving thermal comfort and reducing
operational carbon.
iv. Examine the role of low-carbon materials and optimised design in reducing lifecycle
embodied carbon.
v. Examine the role of embodied / building lifecycle carbon disclosures, benchmarking
and related performance standards in low-carbon transition of the sector.
vi. Make recommendations on potential market mechanisms and financial incentives to
address whole building lifecycle emissions. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 93
Annexure A: Terms of Reference for Working Group
Sub-group - 2: Building materials
Sub-objective: Examine existing supply chains, skills gap, barriers and related interventions
(including innovation) for mainstreaming low carbon building materials and construction
products. The sub-groups work encompasses macro-level questions relating to scaling up
low carbon and sustainable building materials, and may also interface with the work of the
industrial working group focussing on hard to abate sectors such as cement and steel. The
outputs from this sub-group will from part of the overall roadmap for building sector low-
carbon transition.
Scope:
i. Examine (or provide input to relevant building sector models on) the BAU growth in
building sector GHG emissions considering GDP growth trajectories and urbanisation
aligned to development aspirations.
ii. Appraise the current landscape for low carbon and circular building materials / products
(both conventional and alterative), including supply, demand and skills gaps.
iii. Examine options to scale up demand and address barriers identified above.
iv. Examine the role of mandating material / product embodied carbon disclosures
(or EPDs) and other interventions (e.g., circularity specifications) in low-carbon
transition of the sector.
v. Examine the role of wider policies (e.g., C&D waste management, industrial
sector policies and incentives) on encouraging circular building materials, as
recommendations for consideration by the relevant working groups.
vi. Make recommendations to encourage innovation (and related investment) in low
carbon materials/ products for further consideration.
Sub-group-3: Energy use in buildings
Sub-objective: Examine barriers and related interventions for accelerating adoption of
energy-efficient appliances, building energy systems & services, and clean/renewable energy
generation technologies. The outputs from this sub-group will from part of the overall roadmap
for building sector low-carbon transition.
Scope:
i. Examine (or provide input to relevant building sector models on) the BAU growth
in building sector energy demand and GHG emissions considering GDP growth
trajectories and urbanisation aligned to development aspirations. Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 94
Annexure A: Terms of Reference for Working Group
ii. Examine (or provide input to relevant building sector models on) the role of increase
in standard of living on appliance penetration and usage.
iii. Examine (or provide input to relevant building sector models on) the impact of
climate change on cooling demand and increased uptake of active cooling.
iv. Examine the likely penetration and energy savings from super-efficient appliances
and equipment for lighting, cooling, heating, cooking and water pumping.
v. Examine the role of the shift to cleaner/alternative fuels/demand electrification on
energy consumption, emissions and energy security.
vi. Examine the role of behavioural nudges (positive and negative) on energy
consumption.
vii. Examine the role of operational energy/ carbon disclosures, benchmarking of energy
consumption and performance standards.
viii. Make recommendations on market mechanisms and incentives to enable building
sector low-carbon transition, including their role in facilitating higher penetration of
building codes (ECBC, Eco-NIWAS). 95Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings
Annexure B:
Assumptions for Energy
Modelling
1. Residential Sector Energy Modelling
Appliance Penetration (%)
UrbanRural
2020 2050 2070 2020 2050 2070
Lights100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Ceiling Fans96% 100% 100% 86% 100% 100%
Table Fans14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%
Air Coolers28% 50% 50% 13% 30% 45%
Space Heating Equipment 5% 8% 10% 6% 8% 10%
Television88% 100% 100% 61% 100% 100%
Refrigerator65% 90% 100% 29% 80% 100%
ACs17% 80% 90% 7% 50% 70%
Geyser23% 60% 80% 9% 50% 70%
Washing Machine 39% 80% 90% 11% 30% 50%
Water Pump24% 50% 60% 18% 30% 50%
Appliance Per Household
Urban Rural
2020 2050 2070 2020 2050 2070
Ceiling Fans 2.1 2.5 3.0 1.8 2.1 2.5
Table Fans1.1 1.2 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.2
Air Coolers1.2 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.5
ACs1.2 1.6 2.0 1.2 1.2 1.5
Incandescent Bulb0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0
CFL0.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0
LED 3.3 7.0 8.0 2.8 5.0 7.0
LED Tubelight 0.7 2.0 3.0 0.3 1.3 2.0 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 96
Annexure B: Assumptions for Energy Modelling
Urban Rural
2020 2050 2070 2020 2050 2070
CFL Tubelight 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Electric Heater 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0
Geyser 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0
Immersion Rod1.0 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.4
TV1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1
Refrigerator 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
Washng Machine 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
Water pump 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Usage Hours (Urban/ Rural)
Usage Hours- Urban Usage Hours- Rural
CPSNZSCPSNZS
202020502070202020502070202020502070202020502070
Ceiling Fans 195022002450190022002400195022002450190022002400
Table Fans 8009001000900100110080090010009001001100
Air Coolers90012001500825120015009001050120082512001500
ACs 1000180018008001400180010001400160080012001500
Lighting 225018001500165015001200225018001500165015001200
Incandescent
Bulb
225018001500165015001200225018001500165015001200
CFL 225018001500165015001200225018001500165015001200
LED 225018001500165015001200225018001500165015001200
LED Tubelight 225018001500165015001200225018001500165015001200
CFL Tubelight 225018001500165015001200225018001500165015001200
Electric Heater 450500500550550550450500500550550550
Geyser 180180180180180180180180180180180180
Immersion
Rod
180180180180180180180180180180180180
TV 185018501850160016001600185018501850160016001600
Refrigerator 720080008000800080008000720080008000720080008000
Washing
Machine
150200200130130130150200200130130130
Water pump 280300350250250250280300350250250250 Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 97
Annexure B: Assumptions for Energy Modelling
Appliance Wattage (considering improvement in efficiency)
Baseline Year CPSNZS
2020 2050 2070 2050 2070
Fans70 5035 35 20
Coolers225 175 125 125 75
AC - 1S1750 1450 1175 1175 900
ACs - 2S1500 1250 1000 1000 775
ACs - 3S1250 1075 875 875 675
ACs - 4S1100 925 750 750 575
ACs - 5S950 800 650 650 500
Incandescent bulb60 60 60 60 60
CFL20 15 12 12 8
LED 10 8 6 6 4
LED Tubelight 40 32 24 24 16
CFL Tubelight 60 45 36 36 24
Electric Heater2000 1500 1200 1200 800
Geyser 2000 1600 1200 1200 1000
Immersion Rod1500 1250 1100 1100 900
Water Heater Solar400 350 300 300 240
TV & Other Electronic Display
Devices
80 65 50 50 35
Refrigerator80 65 50 50 40
Washing Machine750 600 500 500 400
Water pump1150 1000 800 800650
2. Commercial Sector Energy Modelling
Share of AC floor space (building type-wise)
Share of AC floor space (%) 202020502070
Hospitals34%75%90%
Hotels50%75%95%
Retail19%60%90%
Office space35%75%90%
Educational14%50%70%
Assembly places7%30%50%
Transit42%50%70%
Warehouse23%40%60% Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings 98
Annexure B: Assumptions for Energy Modelling
Penetration of Low carbon buildings by 2070
CPSNZS
Share of ECBC 30%20%
Share of ECBC+20%10%
Share of Super- ECBC 10%5%
3. Cooking Sector Energy Modelling
Fuel Mix in Cooking Sector
CPSNZS
2020 2050 2070 2050 2070
Rural
Biogas 0% 2% 2% 2%2%
Biomass 57% 22% 2% 0%0%
Electric 1% 9% 21% 35%50%
LPG42% 50% 45% 47%19%
PNG0% 17% 30% 17% 29%
Urban
Biogas 0% 0% 0% 0%0%
Biomass 9% 0% 0% 0%0%
Electric 1% 24% 50% 32%70%
LPG85% 51% 10% 38%10%
PNG5% 25% 40% 30%20% 99Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings
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B. R., & Sunder, P. S. (2021). Achieving energy and resource efficiency in glass and
refractory industries: A sectoral roadmap for MSMEs. https://beeindia.gov.in/sites/default/
files/Glass_&_Refractory_sector-Energy_mapping.pdf Scenarios towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero - Sectoral Insights: Buildings (Vol. 5)
VOL. 5
SECTORAL INSIGHTS:
BUILDINGS
SCENARIOS TOWARDS VIKSIT BHARAT AND NET ZERO